Derived table · Paycheck Protection Program
What the held studies say about PPP outcomes
Findings about the outcomes of the Paycheck Protection Program, each read off a document this archive holds as a file: 82 findings from 40 documents, each with the estimate exactly as printed, the study's own words for its data, period, method and caveat, and the page the sentence sits on.
Rows82
Columns19
Files1 · 82 KB
FormatCSV
Source vintageEconomics papers, working papers, inspector general reports and official evaluations held in this archive, read as they stood on 2026-09-20
Published byPandemic Darlings
Acquired / built2026-09-21
Built from26 more, listed under Related records
SHA-2563551707b0df06d5cc58dbbea6e07d220e9ca32a1de648cc9c63b54ee4c590bf7
RightsQuotations remain the works' own; attribution to Pandemic Darlings requested for the compiled table.
Dictionarydictionary.csv
Download CSV 82 KBData dictionary CSVAt a glancePreviewColumnsHow to useBefore you quote a row
At a glance
Measured on the served file on 2026-09-21; the checksum above is the file these numbers describe.
Rows82
Columns19
Key
finding_id · uniqueCells left blank256 of 1,558 · 16.4%
Documents40
Outcome classes13
Publication types23
Held copies with a version statement40
What it is
One row is one finding printed in one held document. A row is not a study: the 82 rows come from 40 documents, and nothing is weighted, pooled, rescaled or averaged. A study with four rows is not counted four times in any statement made from this file.
Each row carries the estimate exactly as printed, the study's own description of its data, period, method and caveat where our copy prints them beside the estimate, the path and SHA-256 of our copy, the page the sentence sits on, and the sentence itself.
ppp-outcomes-literature-comparability.csv holds every pair of findings this archive reads as estimating the same quantity, and prints the two rows' periods, data, methods and publication types side by side. It does not say which estimate is right.
How it was built
Every row was re-read from the held PDF with a text extractor other than the one used to build the table. For all 82 rows the file was present, its SHA-256 matched the value in the table, and the quoted sentence and every fragment of the printed estimate were found on the pinned page.
Re-verified again when this page was built: 82 of 82 files present, 82 of 82 hashes matching the row, and the quoted span re-found on the pinned page for 82 of 82 rows. Four of them needed a third reading: one reader breaks a hyphenated word across the line ending and renders an accented letter as two characters, so on those four pages it finds the sentence only once the line-ending hyphens are closed up. The printed sentence is on the pinned page in every case; none of the four estimates changed.
The thirteen outcome classes are derived from the held rows, not imposed on them. question_studied and the comparability file's quantity_label are the only free-text fields written by this archive rather than copied from a document.
Preview
| finding_id | study_id | citation_as_printed_on_the_document | publication_type | version_or_date_of_the_held_copy | question_studied | data_used_as_the_study_states_it | period_as_stated | method_in_the_studys_own_words | headline_estimate_as_printed | study_stated_caveat_verbatim | outcome_class | held_path | sha256 | pin_page | pin_locator | verbatim_span | public_url_recorded_in_repo_manifest | url_source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F001 | autor-payroll | David Autor, David Cho, Leland D. Crane, Mita Goldar, Byron… | working paper | NBER Working Paper No. 29972, April 2022 | Effect of the PPP on employment at PPP-eligible firms relat… | high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP--one of… | at its peak in mid-2020, with this effect waning to 0 to 3 … | estimate the causal effect of the PPP on the evolution of e… | boosted employment at eligible firms by between 2 percent t… | EMP-EFFECT | An Evaluation Of The Ppp Using Administrative Payroll Microdata… | 2a20c0cd4350d93390afb855364bca77d5f2693136ed4931b9a527ad262… | 2 | abstract | We estimate that the PPP boosted employment at eligible fir… | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29972 | planning/economic-policy-analyses-acquisition-manifest-2026… | |
| F002 | autor-payroll | David Autor, David Cho, Leland D. Crane, Mita Goldar, Byron… | working paper | NBER Working Paper No. 29972, April 2022 | Number of jobs retained because of the PPP | high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP--one of… | as of mid-May 2020 | an estimated additional 3.6 million jobs due to the PPP as … | EMP-JOBS | An Evaluation Of The Ppp Using Administrative Payroll Microdata… | 2a20c0cd4350d93390afb855364bca77d5f2693136ed4931b9a527ad262… | 2 | abstract | Employers retained an estimated additional 3.6 million jobs… | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29972 | planning/economic-policy-analyses-acquisition-manifest-2026… | ||
| F003 | autor-payroll | David Autor, David Cho, Leland D. Crane, Mita Goldar, Byron… | working paper | NBER Working Paper No. 29972, April 2022 | Cost per year of employment retained | high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP--one of… | 2020 | $169,000 to $258,000, equal to 3.4 to 5.2 times median earn… | EMP-COST | An Evaluation Of The Ppp Using Administrative Payroll Microdata… | 2a20c0cd4350d93390afb855364bca77d5f2693136ed4931b9a527ad262… | 2 | abstract | The implied cost per year of employment retained was $169,0… | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29972 | planning/economic-policy-analyses-acquisition-manifest-2026… | ||
| F004 | autor-800bn | David Autor, David Cho, Leland D. Crane, Mita Goldar, Byron… | working paper | NBER Working Paper No. 29669, January 2022 | Job-years preserved and cost per job-year | over 14 months | between 2 and 3 million job-years of employment over 14 mon… | EMP-COST | Autor et al. Nber W29669 800 Billion Ppp Where Did Money Go… | bbbcda32ae74d190983f53004e2c1d52903bf2c1222e80aa6d9363dcb2a… | 2 | abstract | We estimate that the program cumulatively preserved between… | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29669 | planning/economic-policy-analyses-acquisition-manifest-2026… | |||
| F005 | autor-800bn | David Autor, David Cho, Leland D. Crane, Mita Goldar, Byron… | working paper | NBER Working Paper No. 29669, January 2022 | Share of PPP dollars reaching workers who would otherwise h… | only 23 to 34 percent of PPP dollars went directly to worke… | INCIDENCE-DIST | Autor et al. Nber W29669 800 Billion Ppp Where Did Money Go… | bbbcda32ae74d190983f53004e2c1d52903bf2c1222e80aa6d9363dcb2a… | 2 | abstract | These estimates imply that only 23 to 34 percent of PPP dol… | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29669 | planning/economic-policy-analyses-acquisition-manifest-2026… | ||||
| F006 | autor-800bn | David Autor, David Cho, Leland D. Crane, Mita Goldar, Byron… | working paper | NBER Working Paper No. 29669, January 2022 | Distribution of PPP funds across the household income distr… | about three-quarters of PPP funds accruing to the top quint… | INCIDENCE-DIST | Autor et al. Nber W29669 800 Billion Ppp Where Did Money Go… | bbbcda32ae74d190983f53004e2c1d52903bf2c1222e80aa6d9363dcb2a… | 2 | abstract | Program incidence was highly regressive, with about three-q… | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29669 | planning/economic-policy-analyses-acquisition-manifest-2026… | ||||
| F007 | autor-800bn | David Autor, David Cho, Leland D. Crane, Mita Goldar, Byron… | working paper | NBER Working Paper No. 29669, January 2022 | Share of small businesses that received a PPP loan | in just two months | 93 percent of small businesses ultimately receiving one or … | TARGETING | Autor et al. Nber W29669 800 Billion Ppp Where Did Money Go… | bbbcda32ae74d190983f53004e2c1d52903bf2c1222e80aa6d9363dcb2a… | 2 | abstract | With 93 percent of small businesses ultimately receiving on… | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29669 | planning/economic-policy-analyses-acquisition-manifest-2026… | |||
| F008 | granja-target | Joao Granja, Christos Makridis, Constantine Yannelis, and E… | working paper | May 2020, Revised September 2021 | Employment effect of the PPP estimated from regional bank-c… | loan-level microdata for all PPP loans and high-frequency a… | during the first five months of the program | exploit regional heterogeneity in lending relationships and… | 63,000 within sample during the first five months of the pr… | EMP-EFFECT | Nber W27095 Ppp Hit Target… | 560e780e6bc089813ada34b606082e45ec43c0ccfb5e16e639816ab5c61… | 34 | section 5, employment effects | Following this approach, we estimate the PPP increased empl… | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27095 | planning/economic-policy-analyses-acquisition-manifest-2026… | |
| F009 | granja-target | Joao Granja, Christos Makridis, Constantine Yannelis, and E… | working paper | May 2020, Revised September 2021 | Employment effect of the PPP relative to a no-exposure base… | loan-level microdata for all PPP loans and high-frequency a… | an increase of 103,000 within sample, or 7.8% of pre-progra… | EMP-EFFECT | Nber W27095 Ppp Hit Target… | 560e780e6bc089813ada34b606082e45ec43c0ccfb5e16e639816ab5c61… | 34 | section 5, employment effects | When we aggregate relative to a no-exposure baseline, we es… | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27095 | planning/economic-policy-analyses-acquisition-manifest-2026… | |||
| F010 | granja-target | Joao Granja, Christos Makridis, Constantine Yannelis, and E… | working paper | May 2020, Revised September 2021 | Cost per job-year implied by the paper's employment estimat… | under the assumption that half of the induced jobs persist … | a cost-per-job-year ranging from $106,000 to $168,000 | EMP-COST | Nber W27095 Ppp Hit Target… | 560e780e6bc089813ada34b606082e45ec43c0ccfb5e16e639816ab5c61… | 35 | section 5, cost per job-year | The program disbursed $525 billion in total loans, which im… | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27095 | planning/economic-policy-analyses-acquisition-manifest-2026… |
First 10 of 82 rows · cells longer than 60 characters are cut with an ellipsis · shown as text, unformatted.
Files
| File | Rows | Size | SHA-256 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ppp-outcomes-literature.csvCSV, UTF-8, header row | 82 | 83,835 B | 3551707b0df06d5cc58dbbea6e07d220e9ca32a1de648cc9c63b54ee4c590bf7 | Download ↓ |
dictionary.csvdata dictionary, 19 rows | 19 | — | built with this page | Download ↓ |
ppp-outcomes-literature-comparability.csvevery pair of findings this archive reads as estimating the same quantity | 68 | 85,171 B | b2283eba13b1ade9326f79a344710e21cb9f8d77889c4f6f6ac92788b3471f11 | Download ↓ |
README.mdwhat the table is, what it does not measure, and how every number can be checked | — | 4,864 B | 9db7c094812156efea0056827f179171e2371ab0cb123f946e4cff6659813ed8 | Download ↓ |
SHA256SUMSSHA-256 of every other file on this page | — | 0 B | — | Download ↓ |
Columns
| Column | Type, measured | Blank | Distinct | Range / values | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
finding_id | text | 0 | 82 | Row id in this file, F001-F0nn. One row is one finding. | |
study_id | text | 0 | 40 | Short id of the held document the finding was read from. Several rows can share one. | |
citation_as_printed_on_the_document | text | 0 | 40 | Authors, title, series and date as printed on our copy, assembled from the cover and title page. The colon between a government report's title and subtitle is this lane's join; each half is printed on the document. | |
publication_type | text | 0 | 23 | One of: peer-reviewed; working paper; government working paper; central bank staff or policy paper; government evaluation; agency inspector general report; agency report. Taken from the document itself, with the issuing series in brackets. | |
version_or_date_of_the_held_copy | text | 0 | 40 | The version or date the held PDF states for itself, verbatim. | |
question_studied | text | 0 | 82 | What the finding is about, in this lane's words. This is the only free-text field written by the lane rather than copied. | |
data_used_as_the_study_states_it | text | 41 | 23 | The study's own description of its data, verbatim. Blank where our copy does not state it near the estimate. | |
period_as_stated | text | 47 | 34 | The period the study states for this estimate, verbatim. Blank where not stated. | |
method_in_the_studys_own_words | text | 53 | 28 | The study's own description of its method, verbatim. Blank where not stated. | |
headline_estimate_as_printed | text | 0 | 82 | The estimate exactly as printed, with units and any uncertainty the document prints. Fragments printed apart are joined with ' ... '. | |
study_stated_caveat_verbatim | text | 71 | 7 | While our findings are informative, we believe it is too early to issue conclusive judgment on PPP's success. (2), We note meaningful caveats to interpreting this paper's aggregate number; the same caveats that apply to other papers evaluating PPP loans. (2), This version of the paper is preliminary; comments are welcome. (2), CBO has not produced comprehensive updated cost estimates. (2), This differential timing observed in the data suggests that the current estimates of the effect of the PPP are not representative of the overall effect of the program. (1), This paper presents preliminary analysis and results intended to stimulate discussion and critical comment. (1) | A limitation or caveat the document itself prints, verbatim. |
outcome_class | text | 0 | 13 | Controlled vocabulary derived from the held rows: ACCESS-RACE, DELIVERY-LENDER, EMP-COST, EMP-EFFECT, EMP-JOBS, FIRM-FINANCE, FISCAL-COST, FORGIVENESS, FRAUD-RATE, INCIDENCE-DIST, SURVIVAL, TARGETING. | |
held_path | text | 0 | 40 | On-site route of the held copy where one exists, otherwise the file name. | |
sha256 | text | 0 | 40 | SHA-256 of our copy, recomputed at verification time. | |
pin_page | integer | 0 | 20 | 1 – 83 · median 2 | PDF page number (1-based) on which the verbatim span is printed. |
pin_locator | text | 0 | 15 | Where on the document the span sits (section, table or figure) as the document labels it. | |
verbatim_span | text | 0 | 82 | The sentence or clause on the pinned page that carries the estimate, verbatim. | |
public_url_recorded_in_repo_manifest | text | 22 | 26 | A public URL for the document if one is recorded in a repository manifest. Blank means no URL is recorded here, not that none exists. | |
url_source | text | 22 | 1 | planning/economic-policy-analyses-acquisition-manifest-2026-06-22-v2.csv (60) | Which manifest the URL came from. |
Type, blanks, distinct count, and range are measured on the file. The same table as CSV: dictionary.csv.
How to use it
Specific to this file, measured on it: keys, joins, encodings, units, and the values that will trip a naive count.
- This is not the literature. The documents here are the ones the archive happens to hold as files. Counting rows or documents measures the archive's holdings, not the field. A study missing from this table may be missing only because the archive does not hold it.
- It is not a meta-analysis. Two rows in the same comparability group can rest on different samples, periods and methods. The group prints those differences and stops there. No row is described as right, best or settled.
- It does not grade studies.
publication_typerecords what a document is, not how good it is. A working paper here has not been peer reviewed, and the table draws no conclusion from that. - Blank is not zero. Where the data, period, method or caveat column is empty, our copy does not print that thing beside the estimate. An empty public URL means no URL is recorded in a repository manifest, which says nothing about whether one exists.
- Quotation is not endorsement. The caveat column quotes the document's own warning. This archive adds none of its own and corrects none of the numbers it quotes.
- CRLF line endings, UTF-8, 83,835 bytes.
Before you quote a row
- Working papers are revised. Each row describes the copy held here, and the version column prints what that copy says about itself. Where two versions of one study are held, both appear and the comparability file says so rather than choosing.
- What is missing is listed. Our missing-documents list names 91 documents that the archive's acquisition manifest or a page on this site cites; we do not have a copy of any of them.
- What the documents say about fraud is a separate table. Pandemic fraud estimates records what each published fraud figure measures; this table is about the program's outcomes.
Cite this table. Name the source vintage; the numbers depend on it.
What the held studies say about PPP outcomes, compiled from documents held by Pandemic Darlings and read on 2026-09-20. Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/data/ppp-outcomes-literature/, SHA-256 3551707b0df06d5cc58dbbea6e07d220e9ca32a1de648cc9c63b54ee4c590bf7