An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata
Summary
An NBER Working Paper 29972, “An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata” by David Autor, David Cho, Leland D. Crane and co-authors, with an Issue Date of April 2022. The abstract says the authors use high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP to estimate the causal effect of the PPP on employment at PPP-eligible firms relative to PPP-ineligible firms. It estimates that the PPP boosted employment at eligible firms by between 2 percent to 5 percent at its peak in mid-2020. Employers retained an estimated additional 3.6 million jobs as of mid-May 2020 and 1.4 million jobs at the end of 2020, at an implied cost per year of employment retained of $169,000 to $258,000.
Summary drafted by a model from the document's text below and checked by script against that text before publication. It is a navigation aid, not a reading of what the document proves. Where AI is used
Archived web capture. Preserved source — captured from www.nber.org; archived 2026-09-23.
Cite this document
“An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata.”
Original at www.nber.org. Archived at Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/source-documents/w29972-386066a6374edca0-58a3b9fe34/
, SHA-256 bdb2ef5c17f841caee79956f058cd70ef8acdbce89e30deb8193731914791503.Full text
An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata David Autor , David Cho , Leland D. Crane , Mita Goldar , Byron Lutz , Joshua K. Montes , William B. Peterman , David D. Ratner , Daniel Villar Vallenas & Ahu Yildirmaz Working Paper 29972 DOI 10.3386/w29972 Issue Date April 2022 The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a principal element of the fiscal stimulus enacted by Congress during the COVID-19 pandemic, aimed to assist small businesses to maintain employment and wages during the crisis. We use high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP--one of the world’s largest payroll processing firms--to estimate the causal effect of the PPP on the evolution of employment at PPP-eligible firms relative to PPP-ineligible firms, where eligibility is determined by industry-specific firm-size cutoffs. We estimate that the PPP boosted employment at eligible firms by between 2 percent to 5 percent at its peak in mid-2020, with this effect waning to 0 to 3 percent throughout the remainder of the year. Employers retained an estimated additional 3.6 million jobs due to the PPP as of mid-May 2020, and 1.4 million jobs at the end of 2020. The implied cost per year of employment retained was $169,000 to $258,000, equal to 3.4 to 5.2 times median earnings. - Copy Citation David Autor, David Cho, Leland D. Crane, Mita Goldar, Byron Lutz, Joshua K. Montes, William B. Peterman, David D. Ratner, Daniel Villar Vallenas, and Ahu Yildirmaz, "An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata," NBER Working Paper 29972 (2022), https://doi.org/10.3386/w29972. Download Citation Published Versions David Autor & David Cho & Leland D. Crane & Mita Goldar & Byron Lutz & Joshua Montes & William B. Peterman & David Ratner & Daniel Villar & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2022. " An evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program using administrative payroll microdata, " Journal of Public Economics, vol 211. citation courtesy of Related Topics Macroeconomics Consumption and Investment Public Economics Taxation Labor Economics Labor Compensation COVID-19 Programs Labor Studies Monetary Economics Public Economics More from the NBER In addition to working papers , the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals—the NBER Reporter , the NBER Digest , the Bulletin on Health , the Bulletin on the Economics of Alzheimer's , and the Bulletin on Entrepreneurship —as well as research spotlights, lectures, and panel videos . - Feldstein Lecture - Presenter: Mark Duggan Mark Duggan, who is currently the Wayne and Jodi Cooperman Professor of Economics at Stanford University and will soon... - Methods Lectures Research Associate Melissa Dell of Harvard University and Ashesh Rambachan of MIT delivered the 2026 Methods...
File and source
- File
- w29972_386066a6374edca0.html
- Size
- 93,553 bytes
- SHA-256
- bdb2ef5c17f841caee79956f058cd70ef8acdbce89e30deb8193731914791503
- Our copy
- w29972_386066a6374edca0.html
- Original
- www.nber.org