Court filing
Missouri Edmo 4 21 Cv 01300 8Th 21 3725 Doc 009 Att 05
Filed June 30, 2021 in Federal Contractor Mandates; one of 57 filings from this case.
Record facts
| Court | U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit |
|---|---|
| Filed | 2021-06-30 |
U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit · No. 4:21-cv-01300-DDN · Doc. 9-5 · 2021-06-30 · Docket on CourtListener
Full text
EXHIBIT
E
Case: 4:21-cv-01300-DDN Doc. #: 9-5 Filed: 11/04/21 Page: 1 of 49 PageID #: 209
DECLARATION OF DR. JAYANTA BHATTACHARYA
I, Dr. Jayanta Bhattacharya, declare as follows:
1. I am an adult of sound mind and make this statement voluntarily, based upon my
knowledge, education, and experience.
EXPERIENCE & CREDENTIALS
2. I am a former Professor of Medicine and current Professor of Health Policy at Stanford
University School of Medicine and a research associate at the National Bureau of
Economic Research. I am also Director of Stanford’s Center for Demography and
Economics of Health and Aging. I hold an M.D. and Ph.D. from Stanford University. I
have published 154 scholarly articles in peer-reviewed journals in the fields of medicine,
economics, health policy, epidemiology, statistics, law, and public health, among others.
My research has been cited in the peer-reviewed scientific literature more than 11,800
times. My curriculum vitae is attached to this declaration as Exhibit A.
3. I have dedicated my professional career to the analysis of health policy, including
infectious disease epidemiology and policy, and the safety and efficacy of medical
interventions. I have studied extensively and commented publicly on the necessity and
safety of vaccine requirements for those who have contracted and recovered from
COVID-19 (individuals who have “natural immunity”). I am intimately familiar with the
emergent scientific and medical literature on this topic and pertinent government policy
responses to the issue both in the United States and abroad.
4. My assessment of vaccine immunity is based on studies related to the efficacy and safety
of the one vaccine to receive full approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
and the two vaccines for which the FDA has granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)
for use in the United States. These include two mRNA-technology vaccines (manufactured
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by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna) and an adenovirus-vector vaccine technology
(manufactured by Johnson & Johnson). Of those, the Pfizer vaccine, also known as
Comirnaty, has full FDA approval.
5. I have not and will not receive any financial or other compensation to prepare this
Declaration or to testify in this case. Nor have I received compensation for preparing
declarations or reports or for testifying in any other case related to the COVID-19 pandemic
or any personal or research funding from any pharmaceutical company. My participation
here has been motivated solely by my commitment to public health, just as my involvement
in other cases has been.
6. I have been asked to provide my opinion on several matters:
• Whether, based on the current medical and scientific knowledge, immunity after
COVID recovery (sometimes referred to as natural immunity) is categorically inferior
to vaccine immunity to prevent reinfection and transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus;
• Whether, based on the existing medical and scientific understanding of SARS-CoV-2
transmission and recovery, there is any categorical distinction between natural
immunity and vaccine immunity.
7. I can summarize my opinions briefly. The scientific evidence strongly indicates that the
recovery from COVID disease provides strong and lasting protection against severe disease
if reinfected, at least as good and likely better than the protection offered by the COVID
vaccines. While the COVID vaccines are effective at protecting vaccinated individuals
against severe disease, they provide only short-lasting and limited protection versus
infection and disease transmission. Requiring vaccines for COVID recovered patients thus
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provides only a limited benefit while exposing them to the risks associated with the
vaccination.
OPINIONS
I.
Natural Immunity Provides Durable Protection Against Reinfection and Against
Severe Outcomes If Reinfected; COVID-19 Vaccines Provide Limited Protection
Against Infection but Durable Protection Against Severe Outcomes if Infected.
8. Both vaccine-mediated immunity and natural immunity after recovery from COVID
infection provide extensive protection against severe disease from subsequent SARS-CoV-
2 infection. There is no reason to presume that vaccine immunity provides a higher level
of protection than natural immunity. Since vaccines arrived one year after the disease, there
is stronger evidence for long-lasting immunity from natural infection than from the
vaccines.
9. Both types of immunity are based on the same basic immunological mechanism—
stimulating the immune system to generate an antibody response. In clinical trials, the
efficacy of those vaccines was initially tested by comparing the antibody levels in the blood
of vaccinated individuals to those who had natural immunity. Later Phase III studies of the
vaccines established 94%+ clinical efficacy of the mRNA vaccines against severe COVID
illness.1,2 A Phase III trial showed 85% efficacy for the Johnson & Johnson adenovirus-
1 Baden, L. R., El Sahly, H. M., Essink, B., Kotloff, K., Frey, S., Novak, R., Diemert, D.,
Spector, S. A., Rouphael, N., Creech, C. B., McGettigan, J., Khetan, S., Segall, N., Solis, J., Brosz,
A., Fierro, C., Schwartz, H., Neuzil, K., Corey, L., Zaks, T. for the COVE Study Group (2021).
Efficacy and Safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine. The New England Journal of
Medicine, 384(5), 403-416. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2035389
2 Polack, F. P., Thomas, S. J., Kitchin, N., Absalon, J., Gurtman, A., Lockhart, S., Perez, J. L.,
Pérez Marc, G., Moreira, E. D., Zerbini, C., Bailey, R., Swanson, K. A., Roychoudhury, S., Koury,
K., Li, P., Kalina, W. V., Cooper, D., Frenck, R. W. Jr., Hammitt, L. L., Gruber, W. C. (2020).
Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine. The New England Journal of
Medicine, 387(27), 2603-2615. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
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based vaccine against severe disease.3
10. Immunologists have identified many immunological mechanisms of immune protection
after recovery from infections. Studies have demonstrated prolonged immunity with
respect to memory T and B cells,4 bone marrow plasma cells,5 spike-specific neutralizing
antibodies,6 and IgG+ memory B cells7 following naturally acquired immunity.
3 Sadoff, J., Gray, G., Vandebosch, A., Cárdenas, V., Shukarev, G., Grinsztejn, B., Goepfert,
P. A., Truyers, C., Fennema, H., Spiessens, B., Offergeld, K., Scheper, G., Taylor, K. L., Robb, M.
L., Treanor, J., Barouch, D. H., Stoddard, J., Ryser, M. F., Marovich, M. A., Douoguih, M. for the
ENSEMBLE Study Group. (2021). Safety and Efficacy of Single-Dose Ad26.COV2.S Vaccine
against Covid-19. The New England Journal of Medicine, 384(23), 2187-2201. doi:
10.1056/NEJMoa2101544
4 Dan, J. M., Mateus, J., Kato, Y., Hastie, K. M., Yu, E. D., Faliti, C. E., Grifoni, A., Ramirez,
S. I., Haupt, S., Frazier, A., Nakao, C., Rayaprolu, V., Rawlings, S. A., Peters, B., Krammer, F.,
Simon, V., Saphire, E. O., Smith, D. M., Weiskopf, D., Crotty, S. (2021). Immunological memory
to SARS-CoV-2 assessed for up to 8 months after infection. Science, 371, 1-13. doi:
10.1126/science.abf4063 (finding that memory T and B cells were present up to eight months after
infection, noting that “durable immunity against secondary COVID-19 disease is a possibility in
most individuals”).
5 Turner, J. S., Kim, W., Kalaidina, E., Goss, C. W., Rauseo, A. M., Schmitz, A. J., Hansen,
L., Haile, A., Klebert, M. K., Pusic, I., O’Halloran, J. A., Presti, R. M. & Ellebedy, A. H. (2021).
SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans. Nature,
595(7867), 421-425. doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03647-4 (study analyzing bone marrow plasma
cells of recovered COVID-19 patients reported durable evidence of antibodies for at least 11
months after infection, describing “robust antigen-specific, long-lived humoral immune response
in humans”); Callaway, E. (2021, May 26). Had COVID? You’ll probably make antibodies for a
lifetime.
Nature.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01442-
9#:~:text=Many%20people%20who%20have%20been,recovered%20from%20COVID%2D191
(“The study provides evidence that immunity triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection will be
extraordinarily long-lasting” and “people who recover from mild COVID-19 have bone-marrow
cells that can churn out antibodies for decades”).
6 Ripperger, T. J., Uhrlaub, J. E., Watanabe, M., Wong, R., Castaneda, Y., Pizzato, H. A.,
Thompson, M. R., Bradshaw, C., Weinkauf, C. C., Bime, C., Erickson, H. L., Knox, K., Bixby,
B., Parthasarathy, S., Chaudhary, S., Natt, B., Cristan, E., El Aini, T., Rischard, F., Bhattacharya,
D. (2020). Orthogonal SARS-CoV-2 serological assays enable surveillance of low-prevalence
communities and reveal durable humor immunity. Immunity, 53(5), 925-933. doi:
10.1016/j.immuni.2020.10.004 (study finding that spike and neutralizing antibodies remained
detectable 5-7 months after recovering from infection).
7 Cohen, K. W., Linderman, S. L., Moodie, Z., Czartoski, J., Lai, L., Mantus, G., Norwood, C.,
Nyhoff, L. E., Edara, V. V., Floyd, K., De Rosa, S. C., Ahmed, H., Whaley, R., Patel, S. N.,
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11. Multiple extensive, peer-reviewed studies comparing natural and vaccine immunity have
now been published. These studies overwhelmingly conclude that natural immunity
provides equivalent or greater protection against severe infection than immunity generated
by mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna).
12. Specifically, studies confirm the efficacy of natural immunity against reinfection of
COVID-198 and show that the vast majority of reinfections are less severe than first-time
Prigmore, B., Lemos, M. P., Davis, C. W., Furth, S., O’Keefe, J., McElrath, M. J. (2021).
Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection
with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells. medRxiv, Preprint. (study of 254
recovered COVID patients over 8 months “found a predominant broad-based immune memory
response” and “sustained IgG+ memory B cell response, which bodes well for rapid antibody
response upon virus re-exposure.” “Taken together, these results suggest that broad and effective
immunity may persist long-term in recovered COVID-19 patients”).
8 Shrestha, N. K., Burke, P. C., Nowacki, A. S., Terpeluk, P. & Gordon, S. M. (2021).
Necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected individuals. medRxiv, Preprint. doi:
10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176 (“not one of the 1359 previously infected subjects who remained
unvaccinated had a SARS-CoV-2 infection over the duration of the study” and concluded that those
with natural immunity are “unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination”); Perez, G., Banon,
T., Gazit, S., Moshe, S. B., Wortsman, J., Grupel, D., Peretz, A., Tov, A. B., Chodick, G., Mizrahi-
Reuveni, M., & Patalon, T. (2021). A 1 to 1000 SARS-CoV-2 reinfection proportion in members
of a large healthcare provider in Israel: A preliminary report. medRxiv, Preprint. doi:
10.1101/2021.03.06.21253051 (Israeli study finding that approximately 1/1000 of participants
were reinfected); Bertollini, R., Chemaitelly, H., Yassine, H. M., Al-Thani, M. H., Al-Khal, A., &
Abu-Raddad, L. J. (2021). Associations of vaccination and of prior infection with positive PCR
test results for SARS-CoV-2 in airline passengers arriving in Qatar. JAMA, 326(2), 185-188. doi:
10.1001/jama.2021.9970 (study of international airline passengers arriving in Qatar found no
statistically significant difference in risk of reinfection between those who had been vaccinated
and those who had previously been infected); Pilz, S., Chakeri, A., Ioannidis, J. P. A., Richter, L.,
Theiler-Schwetz, V., Trummer, C., Krause, R., Allerberger, F. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 re-infection
risk in Austria. European Journal of Clinical Investigation, 51(4), 1-7. doi: 10.1111/eci.13520
(previous SARS-CoV-2 infection reduced the odds of re-infection by 91% compared to first
infection in the remaining general population); Breathnach, A. S., Duncan, C. J. A., El Bouzidi,
K., Hanrath, A. T., Payne, B. A. I., Randell, P. A., Habibi, M. S., Riley, P. A., Planche, T. D.,
Busby, J. S., Sudhanva, M., Pallett, S. J. C. & Kelleher, W. P. (2021). Prior COVID-19 protects
against reinfection, even in the absence of detectable antibodies. The Journal of Infection, 83(2),
237-279. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2021.05.024 (0.86% of previously infected population in London
became reinfected); Tarke, A., Sidney, J., Methot, N., Yu, E. D., Zhang, Y., Dan, J. M., Goodwin,
B., Rubiro, P., Sutherland, A., Wang, E., Frazier, A., Ramirez, S. I., Rawlings, S. A., Smith, D.
M., da Silva Antunes, R., Peters, B., Scheuermann, R. H., Weiskopf, D., Crotty, S., Grifoni, A. &
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infections.9 For example, an Israeli study of approximately 6.4 million individuals
demonstrated that natural immunity provided equivalent if not better protection than
vaccine immunity in preventing COVID-19 infection, morbidity, and mortality.10 Of the
187,549 unvaccinated persons with natural immunity in the study, only 894 (0.48%) were
reinfected; 38 (0.02%) were hospitalized, 16 (0.008%) were hospitalized with severe
disease, and only one died, an individual over 80 years of age. Another study, analyzing
Sette, A. (2021). Impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the total CD4+ and CD8+ T cell reactivity in
infected or vaccinated individuals, Cell Reports Medicine 2(7), 100355 (an examination of the
comparative efficacy of T cell responses to existing variants from patients with natural immunity
compared to those who received an mRNA vaccine found that the T cell responses of both
recovered COVID patients and vaccines were effective at neutralizing mutations found in SARS-
CoV-2 variants).
9 Abu-Raddad, L. J., Chemaitelly, H., Coyle, P., Malek, J. A., Ahmed, A. A., Mohamoud, Y.
A., Younuskunju, S., Ayoub, H. H., Kanaani, Z. A., Kuwari, E. A., Butt, A. A., Jeremijenko, A.,
Kaleeckal, A. H., Latif, A. N., Shaik, R. M., Rahim, H. F. A., Nasrallah, G. K., Yassine, H. M., Al
Kuwari, M. G., Al Romaihi, H. E., Al-Thani, M. H., Al Khal, A., Bertollini, R. (2021). SARS-
CoV-2 antibody-positivity protects against reinfection for at least seven months with 95% efficacy.
EClinicalMedicine, 35, 1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100861 (finding that of 129 reinfections
from a cohort of 43,044, only one reinfection was severe, two were moderate, and none were
critical or fatal); Hall, V. J., Foulkes, S., Charlett, A., Atti, A., Monk, E. J. M., Simmons, R.,
Wellington, E., Cole, M. J., Saei, A., Oguti, B., Munro, K., Wallace, S., Kirwan, P. D., Shroti, M.,
Vusirikala, A., Rokadiya, S., Kall, M., Zambon, M., Ramsay, M., Hopkins, S. (2021). SARS-CoV-
2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in
England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study. The Lancet, 397(10283), 1459-1469. doi:
10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00675-9 (finding “a 93% lower risk of COVID-19 symptomatic
infection… [which] show[s] equal or higher protection from natural infection, both for symptomatic
and asymptomatic infection”); Hanrath, A. T., Payne, B., A., I., & Duncan, C. J. A. (2021). Prior
SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with protection against symptomatic reinfection. The Journal
of Infection, 82(4), e29-e30. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.12.023 (examined reinfection rates in a
cohort of healthcare workers and found “no symptomatic reinfections” among those examined and
that protection lasted for at least 6 months).
10 Goldberg, Y., Mandel, M., Woodbridge, Y., Fluss, R., Novikov, I., Yaari, R., Ziv, A.,
Freedman, L., & Huppert, A. (2021). Protection of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection is similar to
that of BNT162b2. vaccine protection: A three-month nationwide experience from Israel. medRxiv,
Preprint. doi: 10.1101/2021.04.20.21255670
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data from Italy found that only 0.31% of COVID-recovered patients experienced a
reinfection within a year after the initial infection.11
13. Variants do not escape the immunity provided by prior infection with the pre-variant virus
or vaccination.12, 13, 14 This is true of the delta variant as well. In a study of a large
population of patients in Israel, vaccinated people who had not been previously infected
had 13 times higher odds of experiencing a breakthrough infection with the Delta variant
than patients who had recovered from COVID but were never vaccinated.15 They had 27
times higher odds of experiencing subsequent symptomatic COVID disease and 7 times
higher odds of hospitalization. The design of this Israeli study was particulary strong – it
tracked large cohorts of people over time from the time of vaccination or initial infection,
and thus carefully distinguished the effect of time since initial exposure or vaccination in
11 Vitale, J., Mumoli, N., Clerici, P., de Paschale, M., Evangelista, I., Cei, M. & Mazzone, A.
(2021). Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection 1 year after primary infection in a population in
Lombardy,
Italy.
JAMA
Internal
Medicine,
181(10),
1407-1409.
doi:
10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.2959
12 Tarke, A., Sidney, J., Methot, N., Yu, E. D., Zhang, Y., Dan, J. M., Goodwin, B., Rubiro,
P., Sutherland, A., Wang, E., Frazier, A., Ramirez, S. I., Rawlings, S. A., Smith, D. M., da Silva
Antunes, R., Peters, B., Scheuermann, R. H., Weiskopf, D., Crotty, S., Grifoni, A. & Sette, A.
(2021). Impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the total CD4+ and CD8+ T cell reactivity in infected
or vaccinated individuals, Cell Reports Medicine 2, 100355.
13 Wu, K., Werner, A. P., Moliva, J. I., Koch, M., Choi, A., Stewart-Jones, G. B. E., Bennett,
H., Boyoglu-Barnum, S., Shi, W., Graham, B. S., Carfi, A., Corbett, K. S., Seder, R. A. & Edwards,
D. K. (2021). mRNA-1273 vaccine induces neutralizing antibodies against spike mutants from
global SARS-CoV-2 variants. bioRxiv, Preprint. doi: 10.1101/2021.01.25.427948
14 Redd, A. D., Nardin, A., Kared, H., Bloch, E. M., Pekosz, A., Laeyendecker, O., Abel, B.,
Fehlings, M., Quinn, T. C. & Tobian, A. A. (2021). CD8+ T-cell responses in COVID-19
convalescent individuals target conserved epitopes from multiple prominent SARS-CoV-2
circulating variants. Open Forum Infectious Diseases 8(7), ofab143.
15 Gazit, S., Shlezinger, R., Perez, G., Lotan, R., Peretz, A., Ben-Tov, A., Cohen, D., Muhsen,
K., Chodick, G. & Patalon, T. (2021). Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-
induced immunity: Reinfections versus breakthrough infections. medRxiv, Preprint. doi:
10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415
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estimating its effect. This is important because both vaccine-mediated and infection-
mediated protection against subsequent infection diminish with time.
14. In summary, the overwhelming conclusion of the pertinent scientific literature is that
natural immunity is at least as effective against subsequent reinfection as even the most
effective vaccines.
15. Furthermore, based on such evidence, many scientists have concluded that natural
protection against severe disease after COVID recovery is likely to be long-lasting. A
survey article published on June 30, 2021, in the British Medical Journal concluded,
“[t]here is reason to think that immunity could last for several months or a couple of years,
at least, given what we know about other viruses and what we have seen so far in terms of
antibodies in patients with COVID-19 and in people who have been vaccinated.”16
16. These findings of highly durable natural immunity should not be surprising, as they hold
for SARS-CoV-1 (the virus that causes SARS) and other respiratory viruses. According to
a paper published in Nature in August 2020, 23 patients who had recovered from SARS-
CoV-1 still possess CD4 and CD8 T cells 17 years after infection during the 2003
epidemic.17 A Nature paper from 2008 found that 32 people born in 1915 or earlier still
retained some level of immunity against the 1918 flu strain—some 90 years later.18
16 Baraniuk, C. (2021). How long does covid-19 immunity last? The British Medical Journal,
373, 1-3. doi: 10.1136/bmj.n1605.
17 Le Bert, N., Tan, A. T., Kunasegaran, K., Tham, C. Y. L., Hafezi, M., Chia, A., Chng, M.
H. Y., Lin, M., Tan, N., Linster, M., Chia, W. N., Chen, M. I. C., Wang, L. F., Ooi, E. E.,
Kalimuddin, S., Tambyah, P. A., Low, J. G. H., Tan, Y. J. & Bertoletti, A. (2020). SARS-CoV-2-
specific T cell immunity in cases of COVID-19 and SARS, and uninfected control. Nature, 584,
457-462. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2550-z
18 Yu, X., Tsibane, T., McGraw, P. A., House, F. S., Keefer, C. J., Hicar, M. D., Tumpey, T.
M., Pappas, C., Perrone, L. A., Martinez, O., Stevens, J., Wilson, I. A., Aguilar, P. V., Altschuler,
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17. In contrast to the concrete findings regarding the robust durability of natural immunity, it
is yet unclear in the scientific literature how long-lasting vaccine-induced immunity will
be. Notably, the researchers argue that they can best surmise the predicted durability of
vaccine immunity by looking at the expected durability of natural immunity.19
18. A recent study from Qatar by Chemaitelly and colleagues, which tracked 927,321
individuals for six months after vaccination concluded that the Pfizer vaccine’s “induced
protection against infection appears to wane rapidly after its peak right after the second
dose, but it persists at a robust level against hospitalization and death for at least six months
following the second dose.”20
19. The key figures from the Qatari study are reproduced immediately below. Panel A shows
that vaccine mediated protection against infection peaks at 72.1% zero to four weeks after
the second dose, and then declines to 0%, 20 weeks after the second dose. According to
this result, vaccines only protect against infection (and therefore disease spread) for a short
period of time after the second dose of the mRNA vaccines.
E. L., Basler, C. F., & Crowe Jr., J. E. (2008). Neutralizing antibodies derived from the B cells of
1918 influenza pandemic survivors. Nature, 455, 532-536. doi: 10.1038/nature07231
19 Ledford, H. (2021). Six months of COVID vaccines: What 1.7 billion doses have taught
scientists. Nature, 594(7862), 164-167. doi: 10.1038/d41586-021-01505-x (study notes that “Six
months is not much time to collect data on how durable vaccine responses will be. . . . In the
meantime some researchers are looking to natural immunity as a guide.”).
20 Chemaitelly, H., Tang, P., Hasan, M. R., Al Mukdad, S., Yassine, H. M., Benslimane, F. M.,
Khatib, H. A. A., Coyle, P., Ayoub, H. H., Kanaani, Z. A., Kuwari, E. A., Jeremijenko, A.,
Kaleeckal, A. H., Latif, A. N., Shaik, R. M., Rahim, H. F. A., Nasrallah, G. K., Kuwari, M. G. A.,
Romaihi, H. E. A., Abu-Raddad, L. J. (2021). Waning of BNT162b2 vaccine protection against
SARS-CoV-2 infection in Qatar. medRxiv, Preprint. doi: 10.1101/2021.08.25.21262584
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20. On the other hand, Panel B shows that protection versus severe disease is long lasting after
vaccination—even though the person will no longer be fully protected against infection
and, presumably, disease spread. At 20-24 weeks after the second dose, the vaccine remains
95.3% efficacious versus severe disease. While it appears to dip after 25 weeks to 71.5%
efficacy, the confidence interval is so wide that it is consistent with no decrease whatsoever
even after 25 weeks.
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21. The Qatari study is no
outlier. A large study in
California
tracked
the
infection rates for nearly 5
million patients vaccinated
with two doses of the Pfizer
mRNA vaccine. The study
tracked both SARS-CoV-2
infections as well as COVID-
19 related hospitalizations.
The
figure
immediately
below plots the trend in
vaccine efficacy over time
for different age groups in
the population cohort. Panel
A on the right plots effectiveness versus SARS-CoV-2 infections.21 Though the drop in
effectiveness is not as steep as in the Qatari study, there is nevertheless a sharp drop. While
in the first month, vaccine effectiveness is near 90% for all age-groups, by month 5, it drops
to nearly 50% for all the groups. By contrast, Panel B plots vaccine efficacy versus
21 Tartof SY, Slezak JM, Fischer H, Hong V, Ackerson BK, Ranasinghe ON, Frankland TB,
Ogun OA, Zamparo JM, Gray S, Valluri SR, Pan K, Angulo FJ, Jodar L, McLaughlin JM.
Effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine up to 6 months in a large integrated
health system in the USA: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet. 2021 Oct 16;398(10309):1407-
1416. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02183-8. Epub 2021 Oct 4. PMID: 34619098; PMCID:
PMC8489881.
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hospitalizations. It remains high with no decline over time –near 90% throughout the
period. The vaccine provides durable private protection versus severe disease, but declining
protection versus infection (and hence transmission).
22. Another recent study tracked 620,000 vaccinated US veterans to measure breakthrough
infections for the three vaccines in common use in the US.22 Like the other studies, the
authors of the study found a sharp decline in vaccine effectiveness versus infection. Five
months after vaccination, the effectiveness of the J&J vaccine dropped from ~90% to less
than 10%; the Pfizer vaccine dropped from ~90% to ~50%; and the Moderna dropped from
~90% to ~65%. The figure on this page tracks the decline in effectiveness of the vaccines
against infection over time documented in this study. This study corroborates yet another
study that documented declining vaccine efficacy in the first three months after vaccination
22 Cohn BA, Cirillo PM, Murphy CC, et al. Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 Infections in 620,000
U.S. Veterans, February 1, 2021 to August 13, 2021. medRxiv. October 14, 2021.
https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966;
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against disease transmission in the era of the Delta variant.23
23. Yet another study conducted in Wisconsin confirmed that vaccinated individuals can shed
infectious SARS-CoV-2 viral particles.24 The authors analyzed nasopharyngeal samples to
check whether patients showed evidence of infectious viral particles. They found that
vaccinated individuals were at least as likely as unvaccinated individuals to be shedding
live virus. They concluded:
Combined with other studies these data indicate that vaccinated and
unvaccinated individuals infected with the Delta variant might transmit
infection. Importantly, we show that infectious SARS-CoV-2 is frequently
found even in vaccinated persons.
24. Indeed, the CDC recognizes the importance of natural immunity in its updated science brief
analyzing the difference in immunity from infection-induced and vaccine-induced
immunity.25 The CDC noted that “confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased risk of
subsequent infection by 80–93% for at least 6–9 months,” with some studies showing
“slightly higher protective effects (89-93%).” It also noted that “researchers have predicted
that the immune response following infection would continue to provide at least 50%
protection against reinfection for 1–2 years following initial infection with SARS-CoV-2
or vaccination. This would be similar to what is observed with seasonal coronaviruses.”
23 Eyre, D. W., Taylor, D., Purver, M., Chapman, D., Fowler, T., Pouwels, K. B., Walker, A.
S. & Peto, T. E. A. (2021). The impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on Alpha & Delta variant
transmission. medRxiv, Preprint. doi: 10.1101/2021.09.28.21264260
24 Riemersma, K. K., Grogan, B. E., Kita-Yarbro, A., Halfmann, P. J., Segaloff, H. E.,
Kocharian, A., Florek, K. R., Westergaard, R., Bateman, A., Jeppson, G. E., Kawaoka, Y.,
O’Connor, D. H., Friedrich, T. C., & Grande, K. M. (2021). Shedding of infectious SARS-CoV-2
despite vaccination. medRxiv, Preprint. doi: 10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387
25 CDC, Science Brief: SARS-CoV-2 Infection-Induced and Vaccine-Induced Immunity
(updated Oct. 29, 2021), https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-
briefs/vaccine-induced-immunity.html#anchor_1635539757101
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25. The CDC science brief does claim that vaccine-induced immunity is stronger than
immunity from natural infection.26 The study the CDC relies on to support this claim is not
determinative for several reasons.27 First, its result is contrary to the weight of other
evidence, as set forth above. Second, the study compared hospitalization of those
infected—and had natural immunity—90-225 days after their infection while against those
who had completed their RNA vaccine regime 45-213 days before reinfection. Because
immunity—regardless of how gained—wanes over time, the failure to adequately compare
like periods means that the study’s conclusions are biased in favor of vaccine-induced
immunity. Indeed, the study admits this weakness. Third, the study design itself does not
permit it to address the critical question of interest – whether COVID-recovery without
vaccination or vaccination without COVID-recovery provides stronger protection against
COVID-related hospitalization. The study analyzes only patients who are already in the
hospital. To obtain an accurate answer to the question of interest, it would need to include
and analyze patients before entering the hospital. As it is, the study implicitly and
incorrectly assumes that the set of hospitalized patients with COVID-like symptoms is
representative of the population at large, which is untrue.
26. In summary, the evidence to date strongly suggests that while vaccines—like natural
immunity—protect against severe disease, they, unlike natural immunity, provide only
short-lasting protection against subsequent infection and disease spread. In short, there is
26 Id.
27 Bozio CH, Grannis SJ, Naleway AL, et al. Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Among
Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19–Like Illness with Infection-Induced or mRNA Vaccine-
Induced SARS-CoV-2 Immunity — Nine States, January–September 2021. MMWR Morb
Mortal Wkly Rep. ePub: 29 October 2021.
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no medical or scientific reason to believe that vaccine immunity will prove longer-lasting
immunity than natural immunity, much less more durable immunity.
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II.
The CDC’s Recommendation for Vaccination of Recovered COVID Patients Applies
with Equal Force to Those Who Have Been Previously Vaccinated, Whose Protection
Against Infection Wanes Within a Few Months After Vaccination.
27. The CDC, in the Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) section of its website encouraging
vaccination, provides the following advice to previously recovered patients:28
Yes, you should be vaccinated regardless of whether you already had COVID-
19. That’s because experts do not yet know how long you are protected from
getting sick again after recovering from COVID-19. Even if you have already
recovered from COVID-19, it is possible—although rare—that you could be
infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 again. Studies have shown that
vaccination provides a strong boost in protection in people who have recovered
from COVID-19. Learn more about why getting vaccinated is a safer way to build
protection than getting infected.
28. The text of this advice by the CDC does not address any of the scientific evidence included
here about the lack of necessity for recovered COVID patients to be vaccinated. While it
is true that I do not know how long natural immunity after recovery lasts, the
immunological evidence to date suggests that protection against disease will last for
years.29 Uncertainty over the longevity of immunity after recovery is a specious reason for
not exempting COVID-recovered patients from vaccination mandates, since the same can
be said about vaccine mediated immunity. I do not know how long it will last either, and
there is no reason to believe it provides longer lasting or more complete immunity than
recovery from COVID.
29. Similarly, just as reinfections are possible though rare after COVID recovery, breakthrough
infections are possible after vaccination, as the CDC’s team investigating vaccine
28 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2021, September 28). Frequently asked
questions
about
COVID-19
vaccination.
Retrieved
October
1,
2019
from
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/faq.html
29 Patel, N. V. (2021, January 6). Covid-19 immunity likely lasts for years. MIT Technology
Review.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/06/1015822/covid-19-immunity-likely-
lasts-for-years/
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breakthrough infections itself recognizes.30 On the same CDC FAQ webpage I cite above,31
the CDC writes about vaccine-mediated immunity, “We don’t know how long protection
lasts for those who are vaccinated.”
30. The CDC’s main concern in this FAQ seems to be to help people understand that it is safer
to attain immunity against SARS-CoV-2 infection via vaccination rather than via infection.
This is a point not in dispute. Rather, the question is whether someone who already has
been infected and recovered will benefit on net from the additional protection provided by
vaccination. On this point, the CDC’s statement in the FAQ is irrelevant. Here again, the
possibility of reinfection does not alter the conclusion that, especially for those who have
already recovered from COVID, accommodations can be allowed without threatening
public safety.
30 CDC COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Case Investigations Team. (2021). COVID-19
Vaccine Breakthrough Infections Reported to CDC — United States, January 1–April 30, 2021.
Morbidity
and
Mortality
Weekly
Report
(MMWR),
70(21),
792-793.
doi:
http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7021e3
31 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2021, September 28). Frequently asked
questions
about
COVID-19
vaccination.
Retrieved
October
1,
2021
from
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/faq.html
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18
III.
Conclusion
31. Based on the scientific evidence to date, those who have recovered from a SARS-CoV-2
infection possess immunity as robust and durable (or more) as that acquired through
vaccination. The existing clinical literature overwhelmingly indicates that the protection
afforded to the individual and community from natural immunity is as effective and durable
as the efficacy levels of the most effective vaccines to date.
32. Based on my analysis of the existing medical and scientific literature, any policy
regarding vaccination that does not recognize natural immunity is irrational, arbitrary, and
counterproductive to community health.32
33. Indeed, now that every American adult, teenager, and child five and above has free access
to the vaccines, the case for a vaccine mandate is weaker than it once was. Since the
successful vaccination campaign already protects the vulnerable population, the
unvaccinated—especially recovered COVID patients—pose a vanishingly small threat to
the vaccinated. They are protected by an effective vaccine that dramatically reduces the
likelihood of hospitalization or death after infections to near zero. At the same time, natural
immunity provides benefits that are at least as strong and may well be stronger than those
from vaccines.
34. In conclusion, the emerging evidence from the medical literature finds that COVID-
recovered patients have robust and long lasting immunity against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection
and that this immunity against infection is better than vaccinated patients who have never
had COVID.
32 Bhattacharya, J., Gupta, S. & Kulldorff, M. (2021, June 4). The beauty of vaccines and
natural immunity. Smerconish Newsletter. https://www.smerconish.com/exclusive-content/the-
beauty-of-vaccines-and-natural-immunity
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35. I declare under penalty of perjury under the laws of the United States of America that, to
the best of my knowledge, the foregoing is true and correct.
Respectfully submitted,
_____________________________
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, MD, Ph.D.
Professor of Health Policy
Stanford University
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EXHIBIT
A
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JAY BHATTACHARYA, M.D., Ph.D.
September 2021
Address
Department of Health Policy
Stanford University School of Medicine
615 Crothers Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6006
Phone: (650) 736-0404
Email: jay@stanford.edu
http://web.stanford.edu/~jay
RESEARCH INTERESTS
Health economics, health policy, and outcomes research
A. ACADEMIC HISTORY:
Stanford University
A.M., A.B. 1990
Stanford University School of Medicine
M.D. 1997
Stanford University Department of Economics Ph.D. 2000
B. EMPLOYMENT HISTORY:
2001 – present Professor (Assistant to Full), Stanford University School of Medicine,
Department of Economics (by courtesy)
2013 – present Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
2007 – present Research Associate, Sphere Institute / Acumen LLC
2002 – present FRF to Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research
2014 – 2021 Senior Fellow Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute
2001 – 2020
Professor (Assistant to Full) Department of Health Research and Policy (by
courtesy)
2006 – 2008 Research Fellow, Hoover Institution
1998 – 2001 Economist (Associate to Full), RAND Corporation
1998 – 2001 Visiting Assistant Professor, UCLA Department of Economics
C. SCHOLARLY PUBLICATIONS:
PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES (154 total)
1. Yoshikawa A, Vogt W.B., Hahn J., Bhattacharya J., “Toward the Establishment
and Promotion of Health Economics Research in Japan,” Japanese Journal of
Health Economics and Policy 1(1):29-45, (1994).
2. Vogt WB, Bhattacharya J, Kupor S, Yoshikawa A, Nakahara T, "The Role of
Diagnostic Technology in Competition among Japanese Hospitals," International
Journal of Technology Management, Series on Management of Technology in
Health Care, 11(1):93-105 (1995).
3. Bhattacharya J, Vogt WB, Yoshikawa A, Nakahara T, "The Utilization of
Outpatient Medical Services in Japan," Journal of Human Resources, 31(2): 450-
76, (1996).
4. Vogt WB, Kupor S, Bhattacharya J, Yoshikwawa A, Nakahara T, "Technology and
Staffing in Japanese University Hospitals: Government vs. Private," International
Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 12(1): 93-103, (1996).
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5. Sturm R, Gresenz C, Sherbourne C, Bhattacharya J, Farley D, Young AS, Klap R,
Minnium K, Burnham MA, and Wells KB. “The Design of Healthcare for
Communities: A Study of Health Care Delivery for Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and
Mental Health Conditions.” Inquiry 36(2):221-33 (1999).
6. Goldman D, Bhattacharya J, Joyce G, D’Amato R, Bozette S, Shapiro M, Liebowitz
A. “The Impact of State Policy on the Costs of HIV Infection”, Medical Care
Research and Review 58(1):31-53 (2001). See comments Medical Care Research
and Review 58(4):497-498 (2001).
7. Schoenbaum M, Spranca M, Elliot M, Bhattacharya J, Short PF. “Health Plan
Choice and Information about Out-of-Pocket Costs: An Experimental Analysis”
Inquiry 38(1):35-48 (2001).
8. Reville R, Bhattacharya J, and Sager L. “New Methods and Data Sources for
Measuring the Economic Consequences of Workplace Injuries,” American
Journal of Industrial Medicine 40(4):452-63 (2001).
9. Goldman D, Bhattacharya J, McCaffrey D, Duan N, Leibowitz A, Morton S. “The
Effect of Insurance on Mortality in an HIV+ Population in Care,” JASA
96(455):883-894, (2001). See comments “The Effect of Insurance on Mortality in
an HIV+ Population in Care,” JASA 97(460):1218 (2002).
10. Su C, Bhattacharya J, and Wang CC, “Role of Neck Surgery in Conjunction with
Radiation in Regional Control of Node-Positive Cancer of the Oropharynx”
American Journal of Clinical Oncology 25(2):109-16. (2002).
11. DeLeire T, Bhattacharya J, and MaCurdy T. "Comparing Measures of Overtime
Across BLS Surveys." Industrial Relations 41(2):362-369 (2002).
12. Studdert D, Bhattacharya J, Warren B, Schoenbaum M, Escarce JJ. “Personal
Choices of Health Plans by Managed Care Experts.” Medical Care 40(5):375-86
(2002).
13. Bhattacharya J, Schoenbaum M, and Sood N. “Optimal Contributions to Flexible
Spending Accounts for Medical Care.” Economics Letters 76(1):129-135 (2002).
14. Reville R, Neuhauser F, Bhattacharya J, and Martin C, “Comparing Severity of
Impairment for Different Permanent Upper Extremity Musculo-Skeletal Injuries”
Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation 12(3):205-21 (2002).
15. Lakdawalla D., Goldman D, Bhattacharya J, Hurd M, Joyce G, and Panis C.,
“Forecasting the Nursing Home Population”, Medical Care 41(1):8-20 (2003) See
comments “Forecasting the Nursing Home Population,” Medical Care 41(1):28-
31 (2003).
16. Bhattacharya J, Deleire T, Haider S, Currie J. “Heat or Eat? Cold-Weather Shocks
and Nutrition in Poor American Families,” American Journal of Public Health
93(7):1149-1154 (2003).
17. Bhattacharya J and Vogt W. “A Simple Model of Pharmaceutical Price
Dynamics.” Journal of Law and Economics 46:599-626 (2003).
18. Bhattacharya J, Goldman D, Sood N. “The Link Between Public and Private
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Insurance and HIV-Related Mortality,” Journal of Health Economics 22:1105-
1122 (2003).
19. Lakdawalla D, Bhattacharya J, and Goldman D. “Are the Young Becoming More
Disabled?” Health Affairs 23(1):168-176 (2004).
20. Bhattacharya J, Currie J, and Haider S. “Poverty, Food Insecurity, and Nutritional
Outcomes in Children and Adults,” Journal of Health Economics 23(4):839-862
(2004).
21. Yoo BK, Bhattacharya J, McDonald K and Garber A. “Impacts of Informal
Caregiver Availability on Long-term Care Expenditures in OECD Countries,”
Health Services Research 39(6 Pt 2):1971-92 (2004).
22. Bhattacharya J, Goldman D, and Sood N. “Price Regulation in Secondary
Insurance Markets” Journal of Risk and Insurance 72(4):61-75 (2005).
23. Bhattacharya J. “Specialty Selection and Lifetime Returns to Specialization
Within Medicine” Journal of Human Resources 40(1):115-143 (2005).
24. Lakdawalla D, Philipson T, Bhattacharya J, “Welfare-Enhancing Technological
Change and the Growth of Obesity,” American Economics Review (Papers and
Proceedings) 95(2): 253-257 (2005).
25. Bhattacharya J, Shang B, Su CK, Goldman D “Technological Advance in Cancer
and the Future of Medical Care Expenditures by the Elderly,” Health Affairs.
[Web Exclusive 10.1377/hlthaff.w5.r5-r17] 26 September (2005).
26. Goldman DP, Shang B, Bhattacharya J, Garber AM, Hurd M, Joyce GF,
Lakdawalla D, Panis C, Shekelle P, “Consequences Of Health Trends And Medical
Innovation For The Future Elderly,” Health Affairs. [Web Exclusive
10.1377/hlthaff.w5.r53-r66] 26 September (2005).
27. Bhattacharya J and Lakdawalla D, “The Labor Market Value of Health
Improvements” The Forum for Health Economics and Health Policy. Forum:
Biomedical Research and the Economy: Article 2
http://www..bepress.fhep/biomedical _research/2 (2005).
28. Bhattacharya J and Lakdawalla D, “Does Medicare Benefit the Poor?” Journal of
Public Economics 90(1-2):277-92 (2006).
29. Bhattacharya J, Goldman D, McCaffrey D, “Estimating Probit Models with
Endogenous Covariates,” Statistics in Medicine 25(3):389-413 (2006).
30. Bhattacharya J, Currie J, and Haider S, “Breakfast of Champions? The Nutritional
Effects of the School Breakfast Program,” Journal of Human Resources (2006)
41(3):445-466.
31. Bhattacharya J and Sood N, “Health Insurance and the Obesity Externality”
Advances In Health Economics And Health Services Research 17:279-318 (2007).
32. Shetty K and Bhattacharya J, “The Impact of the 2003 ACGME Work Hours
Regulations” Annals of Internal Medicine 147: 73-80 (2007). See comment “A
Response to Dr. Puhan” Annals of Internal Medicine 148(6): 482 (2008).
33. Bhattacharya J and Shang B, “Model Based Survey Design Using Logits:
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Estimating Lost Statistical Power from Random Alternative Sampling” Survey
Research Methods 1(3):145-154 (2007).ea
34. Bhattacharya J, Choudhry K, and Lakdawalla D, "Chronic Disease and Trends in
Severe Disability in Working Age Populations" Medical Care 46(1):92-100 (2008).
35. Bhattacharya J, Shaikh A, Vytlacil E, “Treatment Effect Bounds under
Monotonicity Assumptions: An Application to Swan-Ganz Catheterization”
American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 98(2): 351–56 (2008).
36. Shetty K, Vogt WB, and Bhattacharya J, “Hormone Replacement Therapy and
Cardiovascular Health in the US.” Medical Care 47(5):600-606 (2009).
37. Bhattacharya J and Bundorf K, “The Incidence of the Healthcare Costs of
Obesity” Journal of Health Economics 28(3):649-658 (2009)
38. Bendavid E and Bhattacharya J, “PEPFAR in Africa: An Evaluation of Outcomes”
Annals of Internal Medicine 150(10):688-695 (2009)
39. Nukols T, Bhattacharya J, Wolman DM, Ulmer C, Escarce JJ, “Cost Implications of
Reductions to Resident Physician Work Hours and Workloads for Resident
Physicians,” New England Journal of Medicine 360(21):2202-15 (2009).
40. Bhattacharya J and Isen A, "On Inferring Demand for Health Care in the
Presence of Anchoring and Selection Biases," Forum for Health Economics &
Policy: 12(2) (Health Economics), Article 6.
http://www.bepress.com/fhep/12/2/6 (2009)
41. Bhattacharya J, Goldman D, and Sood N, “Market Evidence of Misperceived
Prices and Mistaken Mortality Risks,” Journal of Economic Behavior and
Organization 72(1):451-462 (2009)
42. Seabury S, Bhattacharya J, Neuhauser F, Reville R, “Using Empirical Data on
Earnings Losses to Improve Permanent Disability Ratings in Workers’
Compensation,” Journal of Risk and Insurance 77(1):231-260 (2010).
43. Kautz T, Bendavid E, Bhattacharya J, Miller NG, “AIDS and Declining Support for
Dependent Elderly People in Africa: Retrospective Analysis Using Demographic
and Health Surveys” British Medical Journal 340:c2841 doi:10.1136 (2010)
44. Patel CJ, Bhattacharya J, Butte AJ, “An Environment-Wide Association Study
(EWAS) on Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus,” PLoS ONE 5(5): e10746.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0010746 (2010)
45. Yoo BK, Bhattacharya J, Fiscella K, Bennett NM, Szilagyi P, “Effects of Mass
Media Coverage on Timing and Annual Receipt of Influenza Vaccination among
Medicare Elderly” Health Services Research 45(5 Pt 1):1287-309. (2010)
46. Bendavid E, Leroux E, Bhattacharya J, Smith N, and Miller G, “The Role of Drug
Prices and Foreign Assistance in Expanding HIV Treatment in Africa” British
Medical Journal 341:c6218 (2010)
47. Shetty K, Deleire T, White C, and Bhattacharya J, ``Changes in Hospitalization
Rates Following Smoking Bans,'' Journal of Policy Analysis and Management
30(1):6-28 (2011)
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48. Bhattacharya J and Sood N, “Who Pays for Obesity?” Journal of Economic
Perspectives 25(1):139-58 (2011)
49. Liu V, Weill D, Bhattacharya J, “Racial Differences in Survival Following Lung
Transplantation” Archives of Surgery 146(3):286-293 (2011)
50. Liu V, Bhattacharya J, Weill D, Hlatky M, “Persistent Racial Disparities in Survival
Following Heart Transplantation” Circulation 123:1642-1649 (2011)
51. Bhattacharya J and Packalen M “Opportunities And Benefits As Determinants Of
The Direction Of Scientific Research”' Journal of Health Economics (2011)
30(4):603-15
52. Atella V, Bhattacharya J, Carbonari L, “Pharmaceutical Price Controls and
Minimum Efficacy Regulation: Evidence from the US and Italy,” Health Services
Research (2012) 47(1 Pt 1):293-308.
53. Bhattacharya J, Shaikh AM, and Vytlacil E, “Treatment Effect Bounds: An
Application to Swan-Ganz Catheterization,” Journal of Econometrics (2012)
168(2): 223-243.
54. Bhattacharya J and Packalen M, “The Other Ex-Ante Moral Hazard in Health”'
Journal of Health Economics (2012) 31(1):135-46
55. Smith-Spangler C, Bhattacharya J, and Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, “Diabetes, Its
Treatment, and Catastrophic Medical Spending in 35 Developing Countries”
Diabetes Care (2012) 35(2):319-26
56. Arroyo A, Wang E, Saynina O, Bhattacharya J, Wise P, "The Association Between
Insurance Status and Emergency Department Disposition of Injured California
Children" Academic Emergency Medicine (2012) 19: 541–551.
57. Bhattacharya J and Vogt WB, “Do Instrumental Variables Belong in Propensity
Scores?” International Journal of Statistics & Economics 9(A12) (2012)
58. Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Rubinfeld RE, Bhattacharya J, Robinson TN, Wise PH, “The
Utility of Childhood and Adolescent Obesity Assessment in Relation to Adult
Health” Medical Decision Making (2012) 33(2):163-75.
59. Bendavid E, Holmes CB, Bhattacharya J, Miller G, “HIV Development Assistance
and Adult Mortality in Africa” JAMA 2012;307(19):2060-2067.
60. Perlroth DJ, Bhattacharya J, Goldman DP, Garber AM,” An economic analysis of
conservative management versus active treatment for men with localized
prostate cancer,” J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr. 2012(45):250-7.
61. Bhattacharya J, Gathmann C, Miller NG, “The Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign
and Russia’s Mortality Crisis,” American Economic Journals: Applied Economics
(2013) 5(2):232-60.
62. Erickson K, Tan K, Winkelmayer W, Chertow G, Bhattacharya J, “Variation in
Nephrologist Visits to Patients on Hemodialysis across Dialysis Facilities and
Geographic Locations.” Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology
(2013): 987-994 doi:10.2215/CJN.10171012
63. Bundorf K, Mata R, Schoenbaum M, Bhattacharya J, “Are Prescription Drug
Insurance Choices Consistent with Expected Utility Theory?” Health Psychology
(2013) 32(9), 986.
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64. Basu S, Seligman H, Bhattacharya J, “Nutritional policy changes in the
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: A microsimulation and cost-
effectiveness analysis” Medical Decision Making (2013) 33(7), 937-948.
65. Wang NE, Saynina O, Vogel LD, Newgard CD, Bhattacharya J, Phibbs CS. The
effect of trauma center care on pediatric injury mortality in California, 1999 to
2011. J Trauma Acute Care Surg. 2013 Oct;75(4):704-16. doi:
10.1097/TA.0b013e31829a0a65. PMID: 24064887; PMCID: PMC4306425.
66. Nguyen C, Hernandez-Boussard T., Davies SM, Bhattacharya J, Khosla RM, Curtin
CM, “Cleft Palate Surgery: An Evaluation of Length of Stay, Complications, and
Costs by Hospital Type,” The Cleft Palate-Craniofacial Journal. (2013)
67. Austin D, Luan A, Wang L, Bhattacharya J, “Small Increases to Employer
Premiums Could Shift Millions of People to the Exchanges and Add Billions of
Dollars to Federal Outlays” Health Affairs 32.9 (2013): 1531-1537.
68. Bendavid E and Bhattacharya J, “The Relationship of Health Aid to Population
Health Improvements” JAMA Internal Medicine Jun;174(6):881-7. doi:
10.1001/jamainternmed.2014.292. (2014) PMID: 24756557
69. Erickson K, Winkelmayer W, Chertow G, Bhattacharya J “Physician Visits and 30-
day Hospital Readmissions in Patients Receiving Hemodialysis.” Journal of the
American Society of Nephrology Sep;25(9):2079-87. doi:
10.1681/ASN.2013080879 (2014) PMID: 2481216.
70. Patel RB, Mathur MB, Gould M, Uyeki TM, Bhattacharya J, Xiao Y, Khazeni N
“Demographic and Clinical Predictors of Mortality from Highly Pathogenic Avian
Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection: CART Analysis of International Cases.” PLoS
One Mar 25;9(3):e91630. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091630. eCollection 2014.
PMID: 24667532 (2014).
71. Basu S, Seligman H, Gardner C, and Bhattacharya J, “Ending SNAP subsidies for
sugar-sweetened beverages could reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes” Health
Affairs Jun;33(6):1032-9. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2013.1246 (2014) PMID: 24889953
72. Jena AB, Schoemaker L, and Bhattacharya J, “Exposing Physicians to Reduced
Residency Work Hours Did Not Adversely Affect Patient Outcomes After
Residency” Health Affairs 33:1832-1840 (2014)
73. Mathur MB, Patel RB, Gould M, Uyeki TM, Bhattacharya J, Xiao Y, Gillaspie Y,
Khazeni N, “Global Seasonal Patterns in Human HPAI H5N1 Infection: Analysis of
International Cases” PLoS ONE Sep 12;9(9):e106171. doi:
10.1371/journal.pone.0106171. eCollection 2014. PMID: 25215608 (2014)
74. Bhattacharya J, Vogt WB. “Employment and Adverse Selection in Health
Insurance.” Forum for Health Economics and Policy 17(1):79-104. DOI:
10.1515/fhep-2013-0017 (2014)
75. Erickson KF, Winkelmayer WC, Chertow GM, and Bhattacharya J. “Medicare
Reimbursement Reform for Provider Visits and Health Outcomes in Patients on
Hemodialysis.” Forum for Health Economics and Policy 17(1):53-77 (2014)
76. Park MD, Bhattacharya J, Park KT. “Differences in healthcare expenditures for
inflammatory bowel disease by insurance status, income, and clinical care
setting.” PeerJ. Sep 23;2:e587. doi: 10.7717/peerj.587 PMID: 25279267 (2014)
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77. Erickson KF, Mell MW, Winkelmayer WC, Chertow GM, and Bhattacharya J
“Provider Visit Frequency and Vascular Access Interventions in Hemodialysis”
Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology (2015) 10(2):269-77. doi:
10.2215/CJN.05540614. PMID: 25587105
78. Chicklis C, MaCurdy T, Bhattacharya J, Shafrin J, Zaidi S, and Rogers D “Regional
Growth in Medicare Spending, 1992-2010.” Health Services Research (2015)
50(5):1574-88. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.12287 PMID: 25676603
79. Romley JA, Axeen S, Lakdawalla DN, Chernew ME, Bhattacharya J, and Goldman
DP. “The Relationship between Commercial Health Care Prices and Medicare
Spending and Utilization.” Health Services Research (2015) 50(3):883-96. doi:
10.1111/1475-6773.12262. PMID: 25429755
80. Gidwani R and Bhattacharya J “CMS Reimbursement Reform and the Incidence
of Hospital-Acquired Pulmonary Embolism or Deep Vein Thrombosis.” Journal of
General Internal Medicine 30(5):588-596 (2015)
81. Erickson KF, Mell MW, Winkelmayer WC, Chertow GM, and Bhattacharya J
“Provider Visits and Early Vascular Access Placement in Maintenance
Hemodialysis.” Journal of the American Society of Nephrology 26(8):1990-7
doi:10.1681/ASN.2014050464 (2015) PMID: 25452668
82. Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Studdert DM, Farid MS, Bhattacharya J “Will Divestment
from Employment-Based Health Insurance Save Employers Money? The Case of
State and Local Governments.” Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 12(3): 343-394
(2015) DOI: 10.1111/jels.12076
83. Alsan M, Schoemaker L, Eggleston K, Kammili N, Kolli P, Bhattacharya J. “Out-of-
pocket health expenditures and antimicrobial resistance in low- and middle-
income countries” Lancet Infectious Disease (2015) 15(10):1203-1210
84. Wang L, Haberland C, Thurm C, Bhattacharya J, Park KT. “Health Outcomes in US
Children with Abdominal Pain at Major Emergency Departments Associated with
Race and Socioeconomic Status” PLoS One 10(8): e0132758 DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0132758 (2015)
85. Patel MI, Bhattacharya J, Asch SM, Kahn J “Acceptance of Advance Directives
and Palliative Care Referral for Veterans with Advanced Cancer: A Retrospective
Analysis.” The American Journal of Hospice & Palliative Care
DOI:10.1177/1049909115595216 (2015).
86. Jena AB, Schoemaker L, Bhattacharya J, Seabury SA (2015) Physician spending
and subsequent risk of malpractice claims: observational study. BMJ
2015;351:h5516 doi: 10.1136/bmj.h5516. PMID: 26538498 See also: Jena AB,
Schoemaker L, Bhattacharya J, Seabury SA. “Authors' reply to Barbieri and
Kovarik, Mariani, and Waxman and Kanzaria.” BMJ. 2015 351:h6774. doi:
10.1136/bmj.h6774 (2015). PMID: 26668033
87. Richman I, Asch SM, Bhattacharya J, Owens DK. “Colorectal Cancer Screening in
the Era of the Affordable Care Act” Journal of General Internal Medicine (2016)
31(3):315-20. doi: 10.1007/s11606-015-3504-2. PMID: 26349953
88. Mooney JJ, Bhattacharya J, and Dhillon GS Effect of Transplant Center Volume
on Cost and Readmissions in Medicare Lung Transplant Recipients, Annals of the
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American Thoracic Society 13(7):1034-41. doi: 10.1513/AnnalsATS.201601-
017OC (2016). PMID: 27064753
89. Hurley MP, Schoemaker L, Morton JM, Wren SM, Vogt WB, Watanabe S,
Yoshikawa A, Bhattacharya J. “Geographic variation in surgical outcomes and
cost between the United States and Japan.” Am J Manag Care. 22(9):600-7
(2016) PMID: 27662222
90. Erickson KF, Winkelmayer WC, Chertow GM, Bhattacharya J. “Hemodialysis
Hospitalizations and Readmissions: The Effects of Payment Reform.” Am J
Kidney Dis. 2016 Nov 14. pii: S0272-6386(16)30524-8. doi:
10.1053/j.ajkd.2016.08.033. (2016) PMID: 27856087
91. Richman I, Asch SM, Bendavid E, Bhattacharya J, Owens DK. “Breast Density
Notification Legislation and Breast Cancer Stage at Diagnosis: Early Evidence
from the SEER Registry.” J Gen Intern Med. 32(6):603-609 (2017) doi:
10.1007/s11606-016-3904-y. PMID: 27844260
92. Erickson KF, Zheng Y, Winkelmayer WC, Ho V, Bhattacharya J, Chertow GM.
“Consolidation in the Dialysis Industry, Patient Choice, and Local Market
Competition.”Clin J Am Soc Nephrol. 12(3):536-545 (2017) doi:
10.2215/CJN.06340616 PMID: 27831510
93. Erickson KF, Winkelmayer WC, Chertow GM, Bhattacharya J. “Effects of
physician payment reform on provision of home dialysis.” Am J Manag Care
22(6):e215-23. (2016) PMID: 27355909
94. Eneriz-Wiemer M, Saynina O, Sundaram V, Lee HC, Bhattacharya J, Sanders LM.
“Parent Language: A Predictor for Neurodevelopmental Follow-up Care Among
Infants With Very Low Birth Weight.” Acad Pediatr. 16(7):645-52. doi:
10.1016/j.acap.2016.04.004. (2016) PMID: 27130810
95. Chen B, Jalal H, Hashimoto H, Suen SC, Eggleston K, Hurley M, Schoemaker L,
and Bhattacharya J. “Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society:
Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan,” Journal of the Economics of Ageing
8 (2016): 42-51.
96. Liu VX, Fielding-Singh V, Greene JD, Baker JM, Iwashyna TJ, Bhattacharya J,
Escobar GJ. “The Timing of Early Antibiotics and Hospital Mortality in Sepsis” Am
J Respir Crit Care Med. (2017) 196(7):856-863. doi: 10.1164/rccm.201609-
1848OC PMID: 28345952
97. Shaw JG, Farid M, Noel-Miller C, Joseph N, Houser A, Asch SA, Bhattacharya J,
Flowers L. “Social Isolation and Medicare Spending: Among Older Adults,
Objective Social Isolation Increases Expenditures while Loneliness Does Not” J of
Aging and Health 29(7):1119-1143 (2017)
98. Tran EMT, Bhattacharya J, Pershing S. “Self-Reported Receipt of Dilated Fundus
Examinations Among Patients with Diabetes: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey,
2002-2013” American Journal of Ophthalmology 179:18-24 (2017) doi:
10.1016/j.ajo.2017.04.009 PMID: 28455116
99. Lin E, Cheng XS, Chin KK, Zubair T, Chertow GM, Bendavid E, Bhattacharya J.
“Home Dialysis in the Prospective Payment System Era” J Am Soc Nephrol
28(10):2993-3004. doi: 10.1681/ASN.2017010041. Epub 2017 May 10. (2017)
PMID: 28490435
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100.
Hakim I, Hathi S, Nair A, Narula T, Bhattacharya J. “Electronic health
records and the frequency of diagnostic test orders” Am J Manag Care.
23(1):e16-e23. (2017) PMID: 28141935
101. Pollom EL, Wang G, Harris JP, Koong AC, Bendavid E, Bhattacharya J, Chang
DT. “The Impact of Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy on Hospitalization
Outcomes in the SEER-Medicare Population With Anal Squamous Cell
Carcinoma” Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys. 98(1):177-185. doi:
10.1016/j.ijrobp.2017.01.006. PMID: 28258896 (2017)
102. Kwong JZ, Weng Y, Finnegan M, Schaffer R, Remington A, Curtin C, McDonald
KM, Bhattacharya J, Hernandez-Boussard T. “Effect of Medicare's
Nonpayment Policy on Surgical Site Infections Following Orthopedic
Procedures” Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 38(7):817-822 doi:
10.1017/ice.2017.86. (2017) PMID: 28487001
103. Chen SP, Bhattacharya J, Pershing S. “Vision Loss and Cognition in the US
Population of Older Adults, JAMA Ophthalmology 135(9):963-970 (2017) DOI:
10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2017.2838 PMID: 28817745 PMCID: PMC5710542
104. Lin E, MaCurdy M, Bhattacharya J “MACRA and its Implications for
Nephrology” Journal of American Society of Nephrology (2017) 28(9):2590-
2596. doi: 10.1681/ASN.2017040407
105. Sandhu AT, Heidenreich PA, Bhattacharya J, and Bundorf MK “Cardiovascular
Testing and Clinical Outcomes in Emergency Department Patients with Chest
Pain” JAMA Internal Medicine (2017) 177(8):1175-1182 PMID: 28654959
PMCID: PMC5710427 doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2017.2432
106. Mooney JJ, Hedlin H, Mohabir P, Bhattacharya J, & Dhillon GS. “Racial and
ethnic disparities in lung transplant listing and waitlist outcomes.” The Journal
of Heart and Lung Transplantation, 37(3), 394–400.
doi:10.1016/j.healun.2017.09.017 (2017)
107. Packalen M and Bhattacharya J (2017) “Neophilia Ranking of Scientific
Journals” Scientometrics 110(1):43-64 PMID: 28713181 PMCID: PMC5506293
doi: 10.1007/s11192-016-2157-1
108. Garber AM, Azad TD, Dixit A, Farid M, Sung E, Vail D, Bhattacharya J “Medicare
savings from conservative management of low back pain” American Journal of
Managed Care 24(10):e332-e337. (2018)
109. Patel MI, Sundaram V, Desai M, Periyakoil VS, Kahn JS, Bhattacharya J, Asch
SM, Milstein A, and Bundorf MK. “Effect of a Lay Health Worker Intervention
on Goals-of-Care Documentation and on Health Care Use, Costs, and
Satisfaction Among Patients with Cancer: A Randomized Clinical Trial.” JAMA
Oncol. 4(10):1359-1366. doi: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2018.2446. (2018)
110. Erickson KF, Winkelmayer WC, Ho V, Bhattacharya J, Chertow GM "Market
Competition and Health Outcomes in Hemodialysis" Health Services Research
53(5):3680-3703. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.12835. Epub 2018 Feb 22. (2018)
111. Yu JX, Oliver M, Lin J, Chang M, Limketkai BN, Soetikno R, Bhattacharya J,
Kaltenbach T. Patients Prescribed Direct-Acting Oral Anticoagulants Have Low
Risk of Postpolypectomy Complications. Clinical Gastroenterology and
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September 2021
Hepatology. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.CGH.2018.11.051 17(10 2000-2007.e3
(2018) PMID: 30503964. PMCID: PMC6541555
112. Patel CJ, Bhattacharya J, Ioannidis J, & Bendavid E. “Systematic identification
of correlates of HIV infection.” AIDS, 32(7):933-943. (2018)
113. McKenzie RB, Sanders L, Bhattacharya J, Bundorf MK “Health Care System
Factors Associated with Transition Preparation in Youth with Special Health
Care Needs” Population Health Management 22(1):63-73. doi:
10.1089/pop.2018.0027. Epub 2018 Jun 29 (2019)
114. Erickson KF, Winkelmayer WC, Ho V, Bhattacharya J, Chertow GM “Market
Consolidation and Mortality in Patients Initiating Hemodialysis” Value in
Health. 22(1):69-76. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2018.06.008. Epub 2018 Jul 27. (2019)
115. Curto V, Einav L, Finkelstein A, Levin J, & Bhattacharya J. “Health Care
Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare.” American Economic
Journal: Applied Economics, 11(2), 302–332.
https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170295 (2019)
116. Mooney JJ, Bhattacharya J, and Dhillon GS “Effect of Broader Geographic
Sharing of Donor Lungs on Lung Transplant Waitlist Outcomes” Journal of
Heart and Lung Transplantation 38(2):136-144. doi:
10.1016/j.healun.2018.09.007. Epub 2018 Sep 14. (2019)
117. Azad, T., Vail, D., Bentley, J., Han, S., Suarez, P., Varshneya, K., Mittal V, Desai
M, Bhattacharya J, and Ratliff, J. “Initial Provider Specialty is Associated with
Long-term Opiate Use in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Low Back and Lower
Extremity Pain.” Spine 44(3):211-218. doi: 10.1097/BRS.0000000000002840.
(2019)
118. Patel MI, Moore D, Bhattacharya J, Milstein A, & Coker TR “Perspectives of
Health Care Payer Organizations on Cancer Care Delivery Redesign: A National
Study” Journal of Oncology Practice 15:1, e46-e55 (2019)
119. Lin E, Bhattacharya J, & Chertow GM “Prior Hospitalization Burden and the
Relatedness of 30-Day Readmissions in Patients Receiving Hemodialysis.”
Journal of the American Society of Nephrology, 30(2), 323–335.
https://doi.org/10.1681/asn.2018080858 (2019)
120. Packalen M, & Bhattacharya J. “Age and the Trying Out of New Ideas.” Journal
of Human Capital, 13(2), 341–373. https://doi.org/10.1086/703160 (2019)
121. Patel MI, Ramirez D, Agajanian R, Agajanian H, Bhattacharya J, & Bundorf KM
“Lay Health Worker-Led Cancer Symptom Screening Intervention and the
Effect on Patient-Reported Satisfaction, Health Status, Health Care Use, and
Total Costs: Results From a Tri-Part Collaboration.” Journal of Oncology
Practice, https://doi.org/10.1200/JOP.19.00152 (2019)
122. Sandhu AT, Kohsaka S, Bhattacharya J, Fearon WF, Harrington RA, &
Heidenreich PA. “Association Between Current and Future Annual Hospital
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Mortality Rates.” JAMA Cardiology, 1–8.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamacardio.2019.3221 (2019)
123. Patel M, Andrea N, Bhattacharya J, & Coker TR. “A Community-Partnered,
Evidence-Based Approach to Improving Cancer Care Delivery for Low-Income
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and Minority Patients with Cancer.” Journal of Community Health, 44(5), 912–
920. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10900-019-00632-x (2019)
124. Hamad R, Templeton ZS, Schoemaker L, Zhao M, & Bhattacharya J.
“Comparing Demographic and Health Characteristics of New and Existing SNAP
Recipients: Application of A Machine Learning Algorithm.” The American
Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 109(4), 1164–1172.
https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/nqy355 (2019)
125. Erickson KF, Zhao B, Niu J, Winkelmayer WC, Bhattacharya J, Chertow GM, &
Ho V. “Association of Hospitalization and Mortality Among Patients Initiating
Dialysis with Hemodialysis Facility Ownership and Acquisitions.” JAMA
Network Open, 2(5), e193987.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.3987 (2019)
126. Jena AB, Farid M, Blumenthal D, & Bhattacharya J. “Association of Residency
Work Hour Reform with Long Term Quality and Costs of Care of US Physicians:
Observational Study.” BMJ, 366, l4134. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l4134
(2019).
127. Hamad R, Nguyen TT, Bhattacharya J, Glymour MM, & Rehkopf DH.
“Educational Attainment and Cardiovascular Disease in The United States: A
Quasi-Experimental Instrumental Variables Analysis.” PLoS Medicine, 16(6),
e1002834. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002834 (2019)
128. Yu JX, Lin JL, Oliver M, Soetikno R, Chang MS, Kwong AJ, Limketkai BN,
Bhattacharya J, Kaltenbach T. Trends in EMR for Nonmalignant Colorectal
Polyps in The United States. Gastrointestinal Endoscopy.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gie.2019.08.004 (2019)
129. Kim D, Chen C, Tysinger B, Park S, Chong MZ, Wang L, Zhao M, Yean JM, Koh
WP, Yoong J, Bhattacharya J, & Eggleston K. Smoking, life expectancy, and
chronic disease in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States: A
microsimulation model [published online ahead of print, 2019 Dec 4]. Health
Econ. 2019;10.1002/hec.3978. doi:10.1002/hec.3978
130. Ryckman T, Robinson M, Pedersen C, Bhattacharya J, Bendavid E. Impact of
Feed the Future initiative on nutrition in children aged less than 5 years in sub-
Saharan Africa: difference-in-differences analysis. BMJ.;367:l6540. Published
2019 Dec 11. doi:10.1136/bmj.l6540 (2019) PMID: 31802569 PMCID:
PMC7269831
131. Pan CK, Vail D, Bhattacharya J, Cao M, Mruthyunjaya P. (2020) The Effect of
Obstructive Sleep Apnea on Absolute Risk of Central Serous
Chorioretinopathy. Am J Ophthalmol. 2020 Oct;218:148-155 PMID 32574769
132. Erickson KF, Shen JI, Zhao B, Winkelmayer WC, Chertow GM, Ho V, &
Bhattacharya J. Safety-Net Care for Maintenance Dialysis in the United States.
J Am Soc Nephrol. 31(2):424‐433. doi:10.1681/ASN.2019040417 (2020) PMID:
31857351 PMCID: PMC7003304
133. Bonde AN, Martinussen T, Lee CJ, Lip GYH, Staerk L, Bang CN, Bhattacharya J,
Gislason G, Torp-Pedersen C, Olesen JB, Hlatky MA. Rivaroxaban Versus
Apixaban for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation: An Instrumental Variable
Analysis of a Nationwide Cohort. Circ Cardiovasc Qual
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Outcomes.13(4):e006058. doi:10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.119.006058 (2020)
PMID: 32283966
134. Sood N, Simon P, Ebner P, Eichner D, Reynolds J, Bendavid E, & Bhattacharya J
Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-Specific Antibodies Among Adults in Los
Angeles County, California, on April 10-11, 2020 [published online ahead of
print, 2020 May 18]. JAMA.;e208279. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.8279 (2020)
PMID: 32421144 PMCID: PMC7235907
135. Packalen M, Bhattacharya J. NIH funding and the pursuit of edge science. Proc
Natl Acad Sci U S A. 117(22):12011‐12016. doi:10.1073/pnas.1910160117
(2020)
136. Alobuia WM, Dalva-Baird NP, Forrester JD, Bendavid E, Bhattacharya J,
Kebebew E. Racial disparities in knowledge, attitudes and practices related to
COVID-19 in the USA [published online ahead of print, 2020 Jun 3]. J Public
Health (Oxf). 2020;fdaa069. doi:10.1093/pubmed/fdaa069
137. Shin SH, Lillard DR, Bhattacharya J. Understanding the correlation between
Alzheimer’s Disease polygenic risk, wealth, and the composition of wealth
holdings. Biodemography and Social Biology (2020) Oct 28;268:113473. doi:
10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113473
138. Curto V, Einav L, Levin J, and Bhattacharya J. Can Health Insurance
Competition Work? Evidence from Medicare Advantage. Journal of Political
Economy (2021) 129(2): 570-606.
139. Sandhu AT, Bhattacharya J, Lam J, Bounds S, Luo B, Moran D, Uwilingiyimana
AS, Fenson D, Choradia N, Do R, Feinberg L, MaCurdy T, Nagavarapu S.
Adjustment for Social Risk Factors Does Not Meaningfully Affect Performance
On Medicare's MIPS Clinician Cost Measures. Health Aff (Millwood). 2020
Sep;39(9):1495-1503. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00440. PMID: 32897780.
140. Kasajima M, Hashimoto H, Suen SC, Chen B, Jalal H, Eggleston K, Bhattacharya
J. Future projection of the health and functional status of older people in
Japan: A multistate transition microsimulation model with repeated cross-
sectional data. Health Econ. 2020 Jul 14. doi: 10.1002/hec.3986. Epub ahead of
print. PMID: 32662080.
141. Lin E, Chertow GM, Bhattacharya J, Lakdawalla D. Early Delays in Insurance
Coverage and Long-term Use of Home-based Peritoneal Dialysis. Med Care.
2020 Jul;58(7):632-642. doi: 10.1097/MLR.0000000000001350. PMID:
32520837; PMCID: PMC7295012.
142. Peirlinck M, Linka K, Costabal FS, Bhattacharya J, Bendavid E, Ioannidis J, Kuhl
E (2020), “Visualizing the Invisible: The Effect of Asymptotic Transmission on
the Outbreak Dynamics of COVID-19” Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics
and Engineering. 372: 1 Dec. 2020, 113410.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2020.113410.
143. Azad, T. D., Zhang, Y., Stienen, M. N., Vail, D., Bentley, J. P., Ho, A. L., Fatemi,
P., Herrick, D., Kim, L. H., Feng, A., Varshneya, K., Jin, M., Veeravagu, A.,
Bhattacharya, J., Desai, M., Lembke, A., & Ratliff, J. K. (2020). Patterns of
Opioid and Benzodiazepine Use in Opioid-Naïve Patients with Newly
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Diagnosed Low Back and Lower Extremity Pain. Journal of General Internal
Medicine, 35(1), 291–297. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-019-05549-8
144. Bendavid E, Oh C, Bhattacharya J, Ioannidis J (2020) “Assessing Mandatory
Stay‐at‐Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID‐19”
European Journal of Clinical Investigation. 5 January 2021.
doi:10.1111/eci.13484
145. Zhang J, Chen Y, Einav L, Levin J, Bhattacharya J. Consolidation of primary care
physicians and its impact on healthcare utilization. Health Econ. 2021 Mar 25.
doi: 10.1002/hec.4257. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 33764640.
146. Lin JL, Rigdon J, Van Haren K, Buu M, Saynina O, Bhattacharya J, Owens DK,
Sanders LM. Gastrostomy Tubes Placed in Children With Neurologic
Impairment: Associated Morbidity and Mortality. J Child Neurol. 2021 Mar
22:8830738211000179. doi: 10.1177/08830738211000179. Epub ahead of
print. PMID: 33750232.
147. Lin E, Chertow GM, Bhattacharya J, Lakdawalla D. Early Delays in Insurance
Coverage and Long-term Use of Home-based Peritoneal Dialysis. Med Care.
2020 Jul;58(7):632-642. doi: 10.1097/MLR.0000000000001350. PMID:
32520837; PMCID: PMC7295012.
148. Alsan M, Atella V, Bhattacharya J, Conti V, Mejia I, Miller G. (2021)
Technological Progress and Health Convergence: The Case of Penicillin in
Postwar Italy. Demography 58 (4): 1473–1498.
https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9368970
149. Bendavid E, Mulaney B, Sood N, Shah S, Bromley-Dulfano R, Lai C, Weissberg Z,
Saavedra-Walker R, Tedrow J, Bogan A, Kupiec T, Eichner D, Gupta R, Ioannidis
JPA, Bhattacharya J. COVID-19 antibody seroprevalence in Santa Clara County,
California. Int J Epidemiol. 2021 Feb 22:dyab010. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyab010.
Epub ahead of print. PMID: 33615345; PMCID: PMC7928865.
150. Park, W. G., Sandhu, A., MaCurdy, T., Choradia, N., Schmitt, C., Koscheski, C.,
Lam, J., Bounds, S., Do, R., Feinberg, L., Vail, D., Nagavarapu, S., &
Bhattacharya, J. (2021). Development of a Cost Measure for
Screening/Surveillance Colonoscopy for the Merit-Based Incentive Payment
System. Gastroenterology. https://doi.org/10.1053/j.gastro.2021.03.040
151. Sandhu, A. T., Do, R., Lam, J., Blankenship, J., Van Decker, W., Rich, J.,
Gonzalez, O., Wu, X., Pershing, S., Lin, E., MaCurdy, T. E., Bhattacharya, J., &
Nagavarapu, S. (2021). Development of the Elective Outpatient Percutaneous
Coronary Intervention Episode–Based Cost Measure. Circulation:
Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes, 14(3), 6461.
https://doi.org/10.1161/circoutcomes.119.006461
152. Duseja R, Andress J, Sandhu AT, Bhattacharya J, Lam J, Nagavarapu S, Nilasena
D, Choradia N, Do R, Feinberg L, Bounds S, Leoung J, Luo B, Swygard A,
Uwilingiyimana A, MaCurdy T. (2021) Development of Episode-Based Cost
Measures for the US Medicare Merit-based Incentive Payment System. JAMA
Health Forum. 2021;2(5):e210451. doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.0451
153. Tisdale RL, Ma I, Vail D, Bhattacharya J, Goldhaber-Fiebert J, Heidenreich PA,
Sandhu A. (2021) Availability of Cost-effectiveness Studies for Drugs With High
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Medicare Part D Expenditures. JAMA Netw Open. 2021;4(6):e2113969.
doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.13969
154. Dalva-Baird NP, Alobuia WM, Bendavid E, Bhattacharya J. Racial and ethnic
inequities in the early distribution of U.S. COVID-19 testing sites and mortality.
Eur J Clin Invest. 2021 Aug 14:e13669. doi: 10.1111/eci.13669. Epub ahead of
print. PMID: 34390487.
NON-PEER-REVIEWED WORK (63 total)
1. Bhattacharya J, Garber AM, MaCurdy T. Cause-Specific Mortality among
Medicare Enrollees. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper
Series. 1996;No. 5409.
2. Bhattacharya J, Currie J. “Youths at Nutritional Risk : Malnourished or
Misnourished?” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series.
2000;No. 7686(7686):483–522.
3. Bhattacharya J, Lakdawalla D. Does Medicare Benefit the Poor? New Answers to
an Old Question. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series.
2002;No. 9280.
4. Bhattacharya J. “Coinsurance, Cost Sharing, and the Demand Managed
Behavioral Health Services” Frontlines: Linking Alcohol Services Research &
Practice, June (2003).
5. Bhattacharya J, Lakdawalla D. Time-Inconsistency and Welfare. National Bureau
of Economic Research Working Paper Series. 2004;No. 10345.
6. Sood N, Alpert A, Bhattacharya J. Technology, Monopoly and the Decline of the
Viatical Settlements Industry. National Bureau of Economic Research Working
Paper Series. 2005;No. 11164(March).
7. Bhattacharya J, Vogt WB. Employment and Adverse Selection in Health
Insurance. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series.
2006;No. 12430(August).
8. Bhattacharya J. “Dollars to Doughnuts” Hoover Digest 3 (2007).
9. Bhattacharya J, Vogt WB. Do Instrumental Variables Belong in Propensity
Scores? National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, NBER Technical Working
Papers: 0343; 2007;No. 343.
10. Bhattacharya J, Packalen M. Is Medicine an Ivory Tower? Induced Innovation,
Technological Opportunity, and For-Profit vs. Non-Profit Innovation. National
Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series. 2008;No. 13862.
11. Atella V, Bhattacharya J, Carbonari L. Pharmaceutical Industry, Drug Quality and
Regulation: Evidence from US and Italy. National Bureau of Economic Research
Working Paper Series. 2008.
12. Bhattacharya J. Insuring the near-elderly: how much would Medicare save? Ann
Intern Med. 2009 Dec 1;151(11):816-7. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-151-11-
200912010-00158. PMID: 19949148.
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13. Yoo B-K, Kasajima M, Bhattacharya J. Public Avoidance and the Epidemiology of
novel H1N1 Influenza A. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper
Series. 2010;15752:1–39.
14. Aranovich G, Bhattacharya J, Garber A, MaCurdy T, “Coping with Chronic
Disease? Chronic Disease and Disability in Elderly American Population 1982-
1999,” NBER Working Paper #14811 (2009)
15. Jena AB, Schoemaker L, Bhattacharya J, Seabury SA. “Authors' reply to Barbieri
and Kovarik, Mariani, and Waxman and Kanzaria.” BMJ. 351:h6774. doi:
10.1136/bmj.h6774. (2015) PMID: 26668033
16. Gidwani R, Bhattacharya J. “CMS Reimbursement Reform: Authors’ Reply.” J
Gen Intern Med. 2015 30(11):1588. doi: 10.1007/s11606-015-3465-5. PMID:
26179821
17. Bhattacharya J. “A way out of the dismal arithmetic of hepatitis C treatment.”
Am J Manag Care. (6 Spec No.):SP183-4. (2016) PMID: 27266945
18. Liu V, Fielding-Singh V, Iwashyna TJ, Bhattacharya J, Escobar G. “Reply to the
Timing of Early Antibiotics and Hospital Mortality in Sepsis - Playing Devil's
Advocate. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. doi: 10.1164/rccm.201704-0774LE. (2017)
PMID: 28485627
19. L Flowers, A Houser, C Noel-Miller, J Shaw, J Bhattacharya (2017) “Medicare
spends more on socially isolated older adults.” AARP Insight on the Issues 125,
1119-1143.
20. Bhattacharya J and Packalen M (2020) Stagnation and Scientific Incentives.
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #26752.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w26752
21. Bendavid E and Bhattacharya J “Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?” Wall
Street Journal, March 24, 2020.
22. Bendavid, E., Mulaney, B., Sood, N., Shah, S., Ling, E., Bromley-Dulfano, R., Lai,
C., Weissberg, Z., Saavedra, R., Tedrow, J., Tversky, D., Bogan, A., Kupiec, T.,
Eichner, D., Gupta, R., Ioannidis, J., & Bhattacharya, J. (2020). COVID-19
Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California. medRxiv,
2020.04.14.20062463. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463
23. Bhattacharya J and Packalen M “Lives vs. Lives: The Global Cost of Lockdown”
Spectator, May 13, 2020
24. Bhattacharya J and Packalen M “Focused COVID-19 Restrictions Will Save Lives
in Poor Countries”, Financial Post, July 3, 2020.
25. Bhattacharya J and Agarwal S. “Lift lockdowns, protect the vulnerable, treat
Covid like a health issue and not a disaster” The Print. July 24, 2020
26. Fronsdal TL, Bhattacharya J, Tamang S. (2020) Variation in Health Care Prices
Across Public and Private Payers. National Bureau of Economic Research
Working Paper #27490. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27490
27. Bhattacharya J and Kulldorff M. “The Case Against Covid Tests for the Young and
Healthy” Wall Street Journal, Sept. 3, 2020
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28. Bhattacharya J, Packalen M. On the Futility of Contact Tracing. Inference 5(3)
September (2020) https://inference-review.com/article/on-the-futility-of-
contact-tracing
29. Bhattacharya J and Packalen M. Contact Tracing is Far from Futile: A Reply.
Inference 6(1) May (2021) https://inference-review.com/letter/contact-
tracing-is-far-from-futile
30. Bhattacharya J. A Sensible and Compassionate Anti-COVID Strategy. Imprimis
49(10). October 2020. https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/sensible-compassionate-
anti-covid-strategy/
31. Kulldorff M, Gupta S, and Bhattacharya J. Great Barrington Declaration. Oct. 4,
2020.
32. Kulldorff M, Gupta S, and Bhattacharya J. “Lockdowns do More Harm than
Good” New York Post. October 6, 2020.
33. Bhattacharya J. “Ask Me Anything – Dr. Jay Bhattacharya.”
r/LockdownSkepticism. Reddit. October 17, 2020
34. Bhattacharya J. “It is genuinely possible to shield the vulnerable from Covid,
while the rest of us go back to normal” The Telegraph. October 20, 2020
35. Kulldorff M, Gupta S, and Bhattacharya J “Our COVID-19 plan would minimize
mortality and lockdown-induced collateral damage” USA Today, Oct. 22, 2020.
36. Bhattacharya J “It’s Time for an Alternative to Lockdown” Spectator, Oct. 29,
2020.
37. Kulldorff M, Gupta S, and Bhattacharya J “We Should Focus on Protecting the
Vulnerable from COVID Infection” Newsweek, Oct. 30, 2020.
38. Kulldorff M and Bhattacharya J. “Lockdown Isn’t Working” Spectator, Nov. 2,
2020.
39. Kulldorff M, Gupta S, and Bhattacharya J. Focused Protection: The Middle
Ground between Lockdowns and “Let it Rip”. Great Barrington Declaration, Nov.
25, 2020.
40. Bhattacharya J and Makridis C “Facts – not fear – will stop the pandemic” The
Hill, Dec. 3, 2020.
41. Bhattacharya J and Gupta S. “How to End the Lockdowns Next Month” Wall
Street Journal, Dec. 17, 2020.
42. Agarwal S and Bhattacharya J. “Majority Indians have natural immunity.
Vaccinating entire population can cause great harm” The Print. January 11, 2021
43. Nicholson T and Bhattacharya J. “Appropriate Use of PCR Needed for a Focused
Response to the Pandemic” The Hill. January 29, 2021.
44. Bhattacharya J and Kulldorff M. “Facebook is Silencing Debate on Lockdown.”
Spiked Online. February 15, 2021.
45. Bhattacharya J and Kulldorff M. “California’s Failed Response to Covid” Eureka.
March 12, 2021
46. Kulldorff M and Bhattacharya J. “One of the Lockdowns’ Greatest Casualties
Could be Science.” The Federalist. March 18, 2021
47. Bhattacharya J and Kulldorff M. “Vaccine Passports Prolong Lockdowns” Wall
Street Journal. April 6, 2021.
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48. Bhattacharya J. “Masks for Children, Muzzles for Covid-19 News.” Wall Street
Journal. April 13, 2021.
49. Bhattacharya J and Kulldorff M. “Lockdown proponents can’t escape the blame
for the biggest public health fiasco in history” The Telegraph. April 24, 2021
50. Bhattacharya J and Licon JA. “The High Costs of Lockdowns: An Interview with
Dr. Bhattacharya” Eudaimonia Junction. April 26, 2021.
51. Bhattacharya J. “Editor’s Note: Public Health Loses its Innocence.” Collateral
Global. May 4, 2021.
52. Bhattacharya J. “How the West Can Help India” Spectator. May 6, 2021
53. Bhattacharya J and Giubilini A. “Immunity Passports: A Debate Between Jay
Bhattacharya and Alberto Giubilini” Lockdown Sceptics. May 7, 2021.
54. Bhattacharya J. “Editor’s Note: Children Are A Casualty of Lockdown.” Collateral
Global. May 11, 2021.
55. Kopinska JA, Atella V, Bhattacharya J, Miller G (2021) The Changing Relationship
between Bodyweight and Longevity in High- and Low- Income Countries.
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #28813.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w28813
56. Toubat O, Berg AH, Sobhani K, Mulligan K, Hori AM, Bhattacharya J, Sood N
(2021) Manufacturer Signal-to-Cutoff Threshold Underestimates Cumulative
Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Evidence from the Los Angeles Firefighters
Study. medRxiv. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.20.21255829.
57. Bendavid E, Oh C, Bhattacharya J, Ioannidis JPA. Response to Letters Re:
'Assessing mandatory stay- At- Home and business closure effects on the spread
of COVID- 19'. European Journal of Clinical Investigation. 2021 Mar:e13553. DOI:
10.1111/eci.13553.
58. Bhattacharya J. “What Does Lockdown and Focused Protection Mean in Nursing
Homes?” Collateral Global. May 18, 2021.
59. Bhattacharya J. “Cancer and Lockdown” Collateral Global. May 25, 2021.
60. Kulldorff M and Bhattacharya J “It's mad that 'herd immunity' was ever a taboo
phrase” The Telegraph, May 27, 2021
61. Bhattacharya J, Gupta S, Kulldorff M, “The Beauty of Vaccines and Natural
Immunity” Smerconish. June 4, 2021
62. Bhattacharya J “Stanford professor challenges SJ Merc’s “Coronavirus Lessons
Learned” assertions” Opportunity Now. June 4, 2021
63. Bhattacharya J “On the Catastrophic Misapplication of the Precautionary
Principle” Collateral Global. June 14, 2021
64. Kulldorff M and Bhattacharya J “The Ill-Advised Push to Vaccinate the Young”
The Hill, June 17, 2021
65. Sood N and Bhattacharya J “Mandatory Masking of School Children is a Bad
Idea” Orange County Register, July 13, 2021.
66. Green T and Bhattacharya J “Lockdowns are Killers in the Global South” UnHerd.
July 22, 2021.
67. Kulldorff M and Bhattacharya J “The Smear Campaign Against the Great
Barrington Declaration” Spiked. Aug. 2, 2021
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68. Bhattacharya J and Boudreaux D “Eradication of COVID is a Dangerous and
Expensive Fantasy” Wall Street Journal. Aug. 4, 2021
BOOKS AND REPORTS (8 total)
1. Yoshikawa A, Bhattacharya J, Vogt WB eds. Health Economics of Japan: Patients,
Doctors, and Hospitals Under a Universal Health Insurance System, Tokyo:
University of Tokyo Press, (1996).
2. Goldman DP, Hurd M, Shekelle PG, Newberry SJ, Panis CWA, Shang B,
Bhattacharya J, Joyce GF, Lakdawalla D. Health Status and Medical Treatment of
the Future Elderly: Final Report, TR-169-CMS, Santa Monica, CA: RAND (2004).
3. Bhattacharya J, Currie J, Haider SJ, Variyam J. Evaluating the Impact of School
Nutrition Programs: Final Report. E-FAN-04-008, Washington D.C.: Economic
Research Service, USDA (2004).
4. Bhattacharya J, Hyde T, Tu P. Health Economics, London: Palgrave-MacMillan,
(2013).
5. MaCurdy T, Bhattacharya J, Perlroth D, Shafrin J, Au-Yeung A, Bashour H, Chicklis
C, Cronen K, Lipton B, Saneinejad S, Shrestha E, Zaidi S. Geographic Variation in
Spending, Utilization, and Quality: Medicare and Medicaid Beneficiaries. Acumen
Report to the Institute of Medicine Committee Study of Geographic Variation in
Health Care Spending and Promotion of High-Value Health Care, Washington, DC:
Institute of Medicine (2013)
6. MaCurdy T, Bhattacharya J, Shafrin J, Chicklis C, Cronen K, Friley J, Lipton B, Rogers
D, Zaidi S. IOM Study of Geographic Variation: Growth Analysis. Acumen Report
to the Institute of Medicine Committee Study of Geographic Variation in Health
Care Spending and Promotion of High-Value Health Care, Washington, DC:
Institute of Medicine (2013)
7. Bhattacharya J, Chandra A, Chernew M, Goldman D, Jena A, Lakdawalla D, Malani
A, Philipson T. Best of Both Worlds: Uniting Universal Coverage and Personal
Choice in Health Care, American Enterprise Institute (AEI) White Paper,
Washington DC: AEI Press (2013)
8. Bhattacharya J, Vail D, Moore D, Vogt W, Choradia N, Do R, Erickson K, Feinberg
L, Isara F, Lin E, Narayanan V, Vaikath M, MaCurdy T. Medicare Current State and
Future Trends Environment Scan. Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services
(CMS) White Paper (2019)
BOOK CHAPTERS (15 total)
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1. Bhattacharya J, Garber AM, MaCurdy T. "Cause-Specific Mortality Among
Medicare Enrollees," in Inquires in the Economics of Aging, D Wise (ed.), Chicago,
IL: University of Chicago Press. (1997).
2. MaCurdy T, Nechyba T, Bhattacharya J. "Ch. 2: An Economic Model of the Fiscal
Impacts of Immigration," The Immigration Debate: Studies on the Economic,
Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration, J Smith (ed.), National Academy
of Sciences Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education:
Washington D.C., (1998).
3. Bhattacharya J, Currie J. “Youths and Nutritional Risk: Malnourished or
Misnourished?” in Risky Behavior Among Youths, J Gruber (ed.), (2001).
4. Yoshikawa A. and Bhattacharya J. “Japanese Health Care” in World Health
Systems: Challenges and Perspectives, Bruce Fried and Laura M. Gaydos (eds.),
Chicago, IL: Health Administration Press (2002).
5. Bhattacharya J, Cutler D, Goldman DP, Hurd MD, Joyce GF, Lakdawalla DN, Panis
CWA, and Shang B, “Disability Forecasts and Future Medicare Costs” Frontiers in
Health Policy Research, Vol. 6, Alan Garber and David Cutler (eds.) Boston, MA:
MIT Press (2003).
6. Bhattacharya J, Choudhry K, and Lakdawalla D. (2007) "Chronic Disease and
Trends in Severe Disability in Working Age Populations" Proceedings from the
Institute of Medicine workshop, 'Disability in America: An Update,' Institute of
Medicine: Washington, D.C.
7. Bhattacharya J, Garber AM, MaCurdy T. “Trends in Prescription Drug Use by the
Disabled Elderly” in Developments in the Economics of Aging, D. Wise (ed),
Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press (2009).
8. Bhattacharya J and Richmond P “On Work and Health Among the American
Poor” in Pathways to Self-Sufficiency: Getting Ahead in an Era Beyond Welfare
Reform John Karl Scholz and Carolyn Heinrich (eds), New York, NY, Russell Sage
Foundation (2009).
9. Bhattacharya J, Garber A, MaCurdy T “The Narrowing Dispersion of Medicare
Expenditures 1997-2005” in Research Findings in the Economics of Aging, D. Wise
(ed.), Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press (2010)
10. Bhattacharya J, Bundorf MK, Pace N, and Sood N “Does Health Insurance Make
You Fat?” in Economic Aspects of Obesity Michael Grossman and Naci Mocan
(eds.), Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press (2010)
11. Bhattacharya J, Garber A, Miller M, and Perlroth D “The Value of Progress
against Cancer in the Elderly” Investigations in the Economics of Aging, David
Wise (ed), Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press (2012)
12. Yoshikawa A. and Bhattacharya J. “Japanese Health Care” in World Health
Systems: Challenges and Perspectives, 2nd edition, Bruce Fried and Laura M.
Gaydos (eds.), Chicago, IL: Health Administration Press (2012).
13. Hanson, J., Chandra, A., Moss, E., Bhattacharya, J. Wolfe, B., Pollak, S.D.. Brain
Development and Poverty: Preliminary Findings. In Biological Consequences of
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JAY BHATTACHARYA, M.D., Ph.D.
September 2021
Socioeconomic Inequalities. B. Wolfe, T. Seeman, and W. Evans (Eds). NY: Sage.
(2012)
14. Bhattacharya J “The Diffusion of New Medical Technologies: The Case of Drug-
Eluting Stents (A Discussion of Chandra, Malenka, and Skinner)” In Explorations
in the Economics of Aging, David Wise (ed.), Chicago, IL, University of Chicago
Press (2014).
15. MaCurdy T and Bhattacharya J “Challenges in Controlling Medicare Spending:
Treating Highly Complex Patients” in Insights in the Economics of Aging, David
Wise (ed.) Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press (2015).
ABSTRACTS (3)
1. Su CK and Bhattacharya J. Longitudinal Hospitalization Costs and Outcomes in
the Treatment of the Medicare Breast Cancer Patient. International Journal of
Radiation Oncology Biology Physics (1996); 36(S1): 282. [abstract]
2. Nguyen C, Hernandez-Boussard T., Davies S, Bhattacharya J, Khosla R, Curtin C.
Cleft Palate Surgery: Variables of Quality and Patient Safety. Presented at the
69th Annual American Cleft-Palate Craniofacial Association (2012). [abstract]
3. Patel MI, Ramirez D, Agajanian R, Bhattacharya J, Milstein A, Bundorf MK. "The
effect of a lay health worker-led symptom assessment intervention for patients
on patient-reported outcomes, healthcare use, and total costs.” Journal of
Clinical Oncology 36(15 Suppl):6502 [abstract]
D. PUBLIC AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICE:
JOURNAL EDITING
Journal of Human Capital, Associate Editor (2015-present)
American Journal of Managed Care, Guest Editor (2016)
Journal of Human Resources, Associate Editor (2011-13)
Forum for Health Economics & Policy, Editorial Board Member (2001-2012)
Economics Bulletin, Associate Editor (2004-2009)
SERVICE ON SCIENTIFIC REVIEW AND ADVISORY COMMITTEES (Selected)
• Standing member of the Health Services Organization and Delivery (HSOD) NIH review
panel, 2012-2016
• NIH reviewer (various panels, too numerous to list) 2003-present
• NIH Review Panel Chair: 2018 (P01 review), 2020 (DP1 review).
• Invited Reviewer for the European Research Council, ERC Advanced Grant 2015 RFP
• NIH Stage 2 Challenge Grant Review Panel, July 2009
• Appointed a member of an Institute of Medicine (IOM) panel on the regulation of work
hours by resident physicians, 2007-8.
• Standing member of the NIH Social Science and Population Studies Review Panel, Fall
2004-Fall 2008
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JAY BHATTACHARYA, M.D., Ph.D.
September 2021
• Invited Reviewer for National Academy of Sciences report on Food Insecurity and
Hunger, November 2005.
• Invited Reviewer for the National Academy of Sciences report on the Nutrition Data
Infrastructure, December 2004
• Invited Reviewer for the National Institute on Health (NIH) Health Services Organization
and Delivery Review Panel, June 2004, Alexandria, VA.
• Invited Reviewer for the Food Assistance and Nutrition Research Program US
Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service Research Proposal Review Panel,
June 2004, Stanford, CA.
• Invited Reviewer for the National Institute on Health (NIH) Social Science and Population
Studies Review Panel, February 2004, Alexandria, VA.
• Invited Reviewer for the National Institute on Health (NIH) Social Sciences and
Population Studies Review Panel, November 2003, Bethesda, MD.
• Invited Reviewer for the National Institute on Health (NIH) Social Science, Nursing,
Epidemiology, and Methods (3) Review Panel, June 2003, Bethesda, MD.
• Invited Reviewer for the Food Assistance and Nutrition Research Program US
Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service Research Proposal Review Panel,
August 2002.
• Research Advisory Panel on Canadian Disability Measurement, Canadian Human
Resources Development Applied Research Branch, June 2001 in Ottowa, Canada.
• Invited Reviewer for the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health R18
Demonstration Project Grants Review panel in July 2000, Washington D.C.
• Research Advisory Panel on Japanese Health Policy Research. May 1997 at the Center
for Global Partnership, New York, NY.
TESTIMONY TO GOVERNMENTAL PANELS AND AGENCIES (9)
• US Senate Dec. 2020 hearing of the Subcommittee on Homeland Security and
Governmental Affairs. Testimony provided on COVID-19 mortality risk, collateral harms
from lockdown policies, and the incentives of private corporations and the government
to invest in research on low-cost treatments for COVID-19 disease
• “Roundtable on Safe Reopening of Florida” led by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. September
2020.
• “Evaluation of the Safety and Efficacy of COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates” July 2020
hearing of the House Oversight Briefing to the Economic and Consumer Policy
Subcommittee.
• US Senate May 2020 virtual roundtable. Safely Restarting Youth Baseball and Softball
Leagues, invited testimony
• “Population Aging and Financing Long Term Care in Japan” March 2013 seminar at the
Japanese Ministry of Health.
• “Implementing the ACA in California” March 2011 testimony to California Legislature
Select Committee on Health Care Costs.
• “Designing an Optimal Data Infrastructure for Nutrition Research” June 2004 testimony
to the National Academy of Sciences commission on “Enhancing the Data Infrastructure
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September 2021
in Support of Food and Nutrition Programs, Research, and Decision Making,”
Washington D.C.
• “Measuring the Effect of Overtime Reform” October 1998 testimony to the California
Assembly Select Committee on the Middle Class, Los Angeles, CA.
• "Switching to Weekly Overtime in California." April 1997 testimony to the California
Industrial Welfare Commission, Los Angeles, CA.
REFEREE FOR RESEARCH JOURNALS
American Economic Review; American Journal of Health Promotion; American Journal of
Managed Care; Education Next; Health Economics Letters; Health Services Research; Health
Services and Outcomes Research Methodology; Industrial and Labor Relations Review;
Journal of Agricultural Economics; Journal of the American Medical Association; Journal of
Health Economics; Journal of Health Policy, Politics, and Law; Journal of Human Resources;
Journal of Political Economy; Labour Economics; Medical Care; Medical Decision Making;
Review of Economics and Statistics; Scandinavian Journal of Economics; Social Science and
Medicine; Forum for Health Economics and Policy; Pediatrics; British Medical Journal
Trainee Current Position
Peter Groeneveld, MD, MS Associate Professor of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania
Jessica Haberer, MD, MS
Assistant Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School
Melinda Henne, MD, MS Director of Health Services Research, Bethesda Naval Hospital
Byung-Kwang Yoo, MD, PhD Associate Professor, Public Health, UC Davis
Hau Liu, MD, MS, MBA Chief Medical Officer at Shanghai United Family Hospital
Eran Bendavid, MD, MS Assistant Professor, General Medicine Disciplines, Stanford University
Kaleb Michaud, MS, PhD Associate Professor of Medicine, Rheumatology and Immunology,
University of Nebraska Medical Center
Kanaka Shetty, MD Natural Scientist, RAND Corporation
Christine Pal Chee, PhD
Associate Director of the Health Economics Resource Center, Palo Alto VA
Matthew Miller, MD
VP Clinical Strategy and Head of Innovation, Landmark Health
Vincent Liu, MD Research Scientist, Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research
Daniella Perlroth, MD
Chief Data Scientist, Lyra Health
Crystal Smith-Spangler, MD Internist, Palo Alto Medical Foundation
Barrett Levesque, MD MS
Assistant Professor of Clinical Medicine, UC San Diego Health System
Torrey Simons, MD
Clinical Instructor, Department of Medicine, Stanford University
Nayer Khazeni, MD
Assistant Professor of Medicine (Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine),
Stanford University
Monica Bhargava, MD MS
Assistant Clinical Professor, UCSF School of Medicineilan
Dhruv Kazi, MD
Assistant Professor, UCSF School of Medicine
Zach Kastenberg, MD
Resident, Department of Surgery, Stanford University
Kit Delgado, MD
Assistant Professor, Department of Emergency Medicine and Faculty Fellow,
University of Pennsylvania
Suzann Pershing, MD
Chief of Ophtalmology for the VA Palo Alto Health Care System
KT Park, MD
Assistant Professor, Department of Medicine, Stanford University
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert, PhD Associate Professor, Department of Medicine, Stanford University
Sanjay Basu, MD
Assistant Professor, Department of Medicine, Stanford University
Marcella Alsan, MD, PhD
Assistant Professor, Department of Medicine (CHP/PCOR), Stanford Univ.
David Chan, MD, PhD
Assistant Professor, Department of Medicine (CHP/PCOR), Stanford Univ.
Karen Eggleston, PhD
Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University
Kevin Erickson, MD
Assistant Professor, Department of Nephrology, Baylor College of Medicine
Ilana Richman, MD
VA Fellow at CHP/PCOR, Stanford University
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JAY BHATTACHARYA, M.D., Ph.D.
September 2021
Alexander Sandhu, MD
VA Fellow at CHP/PCOR, Stanford University
Michael Hurley
Medical Student, Stanford University
Manali Patel, MD
Instructor, Department of Medicine (Oncology), Stanford University
Dan Austin, MD
Resident Physician, Department of Anesthesia, UCSF School of Medicine
Anna Luan, MD
Resident Physician, Department of Medicine, Stanford University
Louse Wang
Medical Student, Stanford University
Christine Nguyen, MD
Resident Physician, Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School
Josh Mooney, MD
Instructor, Department of Medicine (Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine),
Stanford University
Eugene Lin, MD
Fellow, Department of Medicine (Nephrology), Stanford University
Eric Sun, MD
Assistant Professor, Department of Anesthesia, Stanford University
Sejal Hathi
Medical Student, Stanford University
Ibrahim Hakim
Medical Student, Stanford University
Archana Nair
Medical Student, Stanford University
Trishna Narula
Medical Student, Stanford University
Daniel Vail
Medical Student, Stanford University
Tej Azad
Medical Student, Stanford University
Jessica Yu, MD
Fellow, Department of Medicine (Gastroenterology), Stanford University
Daniel Vail
Medical Student, Stanford University
Alex Sandhu, MD
Fellow, Department of Medicine (Cardiology), Stanford University
Matthew Muffly, MD
Clinical Assistant Professor, Dept. of Anesthesia, Stanford University
Dissertation Committee Memberships
Ron Borzekowski
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2002
Jason Brown
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2002
Dana Rapaport
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2003
Ed Johnson
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2003
Joanna Campbell
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2003
Neeraj Sood*
Ph.D. in Public Policy
RAND Graduate School
2003
James Pearce
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2004
Mikko Packalen
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2005
Kaleb Michaud*
Ph.D. in Physics
Stanford University
2006
Kyna Fong
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2007
Natalie Chun
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2008
Sriniketh Nagavarapu
Ph.D in Economics
Stanford University
2008
Sean Young
Ph.D. in Psychology
Stanford University
2008
Andrew Jaciw
Ph.D. in Education
Stanford University
2010
Chirag Patel
Ph.D. in Bioinformatics
Stanford University
2010
Raphael Godefroy
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2010
Neal Mahoney
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2011
Alex Wong
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2012
Kelvin Tan
Ph.D. in Management Science
Stanford University
2012
Animesh Mukherjee
Masters in Liberal Arts Program
Stanford University
2012
Jeanne Hurley
Masters in Liberal Arts Program
Stanford University
2012
Patricia Foo
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2013
Michael Dworsky
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2013
Allison Holliday King
Masters in Liberal Arts Program
Stanford University
2013
Vilsa Curto
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2015
Rita Hamad
Ph.D. in Epidemiology
Stanford University
2016
Atul Gupta
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2017
Yiwei Chen
Ph.D. in Economics
Stanford University
2019
Yiqun Chen
Ph.D. in Health Policy
Stanford University
2020
Min Kim
Ph.D. in Economics
Iowa State Univ.
2021
Bryan Tysinger
Ph.D. in Public Policy
RAND Graduate School
2021
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JAY BHATTACHARYA, M.D., Ph.D.
September 2021
E. GRANTS AND PATENTS
PATENT (2)
1. “Environmental Biomarkers for the Diagnosis and Prognosis for Type 2 Diabetes
Mellitus” with Atul Butte and Chirag Patel (2011), US Patent (pending).
2. “Health Cost and Flexible Spending Account Calculator” with Schoenbaum M, Spranca
M, and Sood N (2008), U.S. Patent No. 7,426,474.
GRANTS AND SUBCONTRACTS (42)
CURRENT (6)
2019-2020 Funder: Acumen, LLC.
Title: Quality Reporting Program Support for the Long-Term Care Hospital,
Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility, Skilled Nursing Facility QRPs and Nursing
Home Compare
Role: PI
2018-2020 Funder: Acumen, LLC.
Title: Surveillance Activities of Biologics
Role: PI
2018-2020 Funder: France-Stanford Center for Interdisciplinary Studies
Title: A Nutritional Account of Global Trade: Determinants and Health
Implications
Role: PI
2017-2023 Funder: National Institutes of Health
Title: The Epidemiology and Economics of Chronic Back Pain
Role: Investigator (PI: Sun)
2017-2021 Funder: National Institutes of Health
Title: Big Data Analysis of HIV Risk and Epidemiology in Sub-Saharan Africa
Role: Investigator (PI: Bendavid)
2016-2020 Funder: Acumen, LLC.
Title: MACRA Episode Groups and Resource Use Measures II
Role: PI
PREVIOUS (36)
2016-2018 Funder: University of Kentucky
Title: Food acquisition and health outcomes among new SNAP recipients
since the Great Recession
Role: PI
2015-2019 Funder: Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
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JAY BHATTACHARYA, M.D., Ph.D.
September 2021
Title: Public versus Private Provision of Health Insurance
Role: PI
2015-2019 Funder: Natural Science Foundation
Title: Health Insurance Competition and Healthcare Costs
Role: Investigator (PI: Levin)
2014-2015 Funder: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
Title: Effect of Social Isolation and Loneliness on Healthcare Utilization
Role: PI
2014-2015 Funder: AARP
Title: The Effect of Social Isolation and Loneliness on Healthcare Utilization
and Spending among Medicare Beneficiaries
Role: PI
2013-2019 Funder: National Bureau of Economic Research
Title: Innovations in an Aging Society
Role: PI
2013-2014 Funder: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
Title: Improving Health eating among Children through Changes in
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)
Role: Investigator (PI: Basu)
2011-2016 Funder: National Institutes of Health (R37)
Title: Estimating the Potential Medicare Savings from Comparative
Effectiveness Research
Role: PI Subaward (PI: Garber)
2011-2016 Funder: National Institute of Aging (P01)
Title: Improving Health and Health Care for Minority and Aging Populations
Role: PI Subcontract (PI: Wise)
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September 2021
2010-2018 Funder: National Institutes of Health
Title: Clinic, Family & Community Collaboration to Treat Overweight and
Obese Children
Role: Investigator (PI: Robinson)
2010-2014 Funder: Agency for Health, Research and Quality (R01)
Title: The Effects of Private Health Insurance in Publicly Funded Programs
Role: Investigator (PI: Bundorf)
2010-2013 Funder: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
Title: G-code" Reimbursement and Outcomes in Hemodialysis
Role: Investigator (PI: Erickson)
2010-2013 Funder: University of Southern California
Title: The California Medicare Research and Policy Center
Role: PI
2010-2012 Funder: University of Georgia
Title: Natural Experiments and RCT Generalizability: The Woman's Health
Initiative
Role: PI
2010-2011 Funder: National Bureau of Economic Research
Title: Racial Disparities in Health Care and Health Among the Elderly
Role: PI
2009-2020 Funder: National Institute of Aging (P30)
Title: Center on the Demography and Economics of Health and Aging
Role: PI (2011-2020)
2009-2011 Funder: Rand Corporation
Title: Natural Experiments and RCT Generalizability: The Woman's Health
Initiative
Role: PI
2008-2013 Funder: American Heart Association
Title: AHA-PRT Outcomes Research Center
Role: Investigator (PI: Hlatky)
2007-2009 Funder: National Institute of Aging (R01)
Title: The Economics of Obesity
Role: PI
2007-2009 Funder: Veterans Administration, Health Services Research and
Development Service
Title: Quality of Practices for Lung Cancer Diagnosis and Staging
Role: Investigator
2007-2008 Funder: Stanford Center for Demography and Economics of Health and
Aging
Title: The HIV Epidemic in Africa and the Orphaned Elderly
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September 2021
Role: PI
2007 Funder: University of Southern California
Title: The Changes in Health Care Financing and Organization Initiative
Role: PI
2006-2010 Funder: National Institute of Aging (K02)
Title: Health Insurance Provision for Vulnerable Populations
Role: PI
2006-2010 Funder: Columbia University/Yale University
Title: Dummy Endogenous Variables in Threshold Crossing Models, with
Applications to Health Economics
Role: PI
2006-2007 Funder: Stanford Center for Demography and Economics of Health and Aging
Title: Obesity, Wages, and Health Insurance
Role: PI
2005-2009 Funder: National Institute of Aging (P01 Subproject)
Title: Medical Care for the Disabled Elderly
Role: Investigator (PI: Garber)
2005-2008 Funder: National Institute of Aging (R01)
Title: Whom Does Medicare Benefit?
Role: PI Subcontract (PI: Lakdawalla)
2002 Funder: Stanford Center for Demography and Economics of Health and Aging
Title: Explaining Changes in Disability Prevalence Among Younger and Older
American Populations
Role: PI
2001-2003 Funder: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (R01)
Title: State and Federal Policy and Outcomes for HIV+ Adults
Role: PI Subcontract (PI: Goldman)
2001-2002 Funder: National Institute of Aging (R03)
Title: The Economics of Viatical Settlements
Role: PI
2001-2002 Funder: Robert Woods Johnson Foundation
Title: The Effects of Medicare Eligibility on Participation in Social Security
Disability Insurance
Role: PI Subcontract (PI: Schoenbaum)
2001-2002 Funder: USDA
Title: Evaluating the Impact of School Breakfast and Lunch
Role: Investigator
2001-2002 Funder: Northwestern/Univ. of Chicago Joint Center on Poverty
Title: The Allocation of Nutrition with Poor American Families
Role: PI Subcontract
(PI: Haider)
2000-2002 Funder: National Institute on Alcohol Abuse & Alcoholism (R03)
Title: The Demand for Alcohol Treatment Services
Role: PI
2000-2001 Funder: USDA
Title: How Should We Measure Hunger?
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September 2021
F. SCHOLARSHIPS AND HONORS
• Phi Beta Kappa Honor Society, 1988
• Distinction and Departmental Honors in Economics, Stanford University, 1990
• Michael Forman Fellowship in Economics, Stanford University, 1991-1992
• Agency for Health Care Policy and Research Fellowship 1993-1995
• Outstanding Teaching Assistant Award, Stanford University, Economics, 1994
• Center for Economic Policy Research, Olin Dissertation Fellowship, 1997-1998
• Distinguished Award for Exceptional Contributions to Education in Medicine,
Stanford University, 2005, 2007, and 2013.
• Dennis Aigner Award for the best applied paper published in the Journal of
Econometrics, 2013
Role: PI Subcontract (PI: Haider)
Case: 4:21-cv-01300-DDN Doc. #: 9-5 Filed: 11/04/21 Page: 49 of 49 PageID #: 257File and source
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