Declaration of Erin E. Babich Runge — Chambless v. Redfield

Record facts

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT · No. 3:20-cv-01455-TAD-KDM · Doc. 32-2 · 2020-12-14 · Docket on CourtListener

Full text

IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT 
FOR THE WESTERN DISTRICT OF LOUISIANA 
MONROE DIVISION 
 
 
CHAMBLESS ENTERPRISES LLC; and 
APARTMENT ASSOCIATION OF 
LOUISIANA, INC., 
 
Plaintiffs, 
 
v. 
 
CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL 
AND PREVENTION; ROBERT R. 
REDFIELD, in his official capacity as 
Director, Centers for Disease Control and 
Prevention; NINA B. WITKOFSKY, in her 
official capacity as Acting Chief of Staff, 
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; 
ALEX AZAR, in his official capacity as 
Secretary of Health and Human Services; 
DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND 
HUMAN SERVICES; WILLIAM P. BARR, 
in his official capacity as Attorney General of 
the United States,  
 
Defendants. 
 
 
 
Case No. 3:20-cv-01455-TAD-KLH 
 
 
 
JUDGE TERRY A. DOUGHTY 
 
MAGISTRATE JUDGE KAREN L. 
HAYES 
 
DECLARATION OF ERIN E. BABICH RUNGE IN SUPPORT OF  
PLAINTIFFS’ REPLY IN SUPPORT OF THEIR  
MOTION FOR PRELIMINARY INJUNCTION
 
 
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I, ERIN E. BABICH RUNGE, make this declaration and state: 
 
1. 
I am over the age of 18, have personal knowledge of the facts set forth herein, and 
am competent to testify. 
2. 
Attached as Exhibit A is a true and accurate copy of a memorandum written by me, 
Erin E. Babich Runge, M.A., addressing several data-based components of the case, Chambless 
Enterprises LLC, et al. v. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 
3. 
Section I.A. includes information provided by Nolo, an online resource that 
responds to legal and business questions, to explain the legal process used for evictions in the State 
of Louisiana. Landlords must first go through court proceedings before they may legally evict a 
tenant. Accessed on December 11, 2020. 
4. 
Section I.A. cites Social Forces¸ an academic journal, regarding landlord use of 
eviction filings to collect unpaid rent and fees rather than evict tenants. Roughly one-third of 
landlords have no intention of ever evicting their tenants when filing for eviction, but rather, they 
use eviction filings to collect rent and fees. Accessed on December 11, 2020. 
5. 
Section I.A. uses data collected by Princeton University’s Eviction Lab to create a 
table showing the reduction of eviction filings in the year 2020 compared to their historical 
averages, accessed on December 9, 2020 and December 11, 2020. 
6. 
Section I.B. cites the Louisiana state government for dates of state-based eviction 
moratoria, accessed on December 11, 2020. 
7. 
Section I.B. cites Princeton University’s Eviction Lab to provide eviction and 
eviction filing rates in Louisiana, accessed on December 11, 2020. 
8. 
Section I.B. cites the prestigious academic journal, The Lancet, to present 
information from the scientific community on COVID-19 transmission showing that transmissions 
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primarily occur between individuals living in the same household and the subsequent rate of 
infection is lowered after the household member became infected. Accessed on December 11, 
2020. 
9. 
Section II.A. presents data from the U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness and 
the National Alliance to End Homelessness to calculate the number of unsheltered individuals in 
Louisiana, accessed on December 11, 2020. 
10. 
Section II.B. uses data collected from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Louisiana 
Department of Health to calculate the percentage of unsheltered individuals who have contracted 
SARS-CoV-2 in Louisiana. Accessed on December 11, 2020. 
11. 
Section II.C. cites academic studies on eviction and homelessness rates, showing 
that many do not become homeless upon eviction and the disinclination of landlords to evict 
tenants during an economic downturn. Accessed on December 9, 2020 and December 11, 2020. 
12. 
Section III. cites the National Council of State Housing Agencies that found the 
likelihood of renters to pay rent owed after becoming evicted was lower with annual incomes of 
less than $50,000. Accessed on December 9, 2020. 
13. 
Section III. cites the National Multifamily Housing Council that found 
approximately 3.4% to 4.8% of tenants who miss rent payments do not pay rent by the end of the 
month. Accessed on December 9, 2020. 
14. 
Section IV. presents vacancy data from the U.S. Census Bureau showing stability 
in vacancy rates regardless of the pandemic. The vacancy rates were used to calculate the average 
percent change in rate for each quarter since 2015, showing lower vacancy rates—and thus more 
housed individuals—in 2020 compared to 2019. Accessed on December 9, 2020. 
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I declare under penalty of perjury under the law of the United States that the foregoing is 
true and correct. 
Executed in Sacramento, California, on December 14, 2020. 
 
___________________________ 
Erin E. Babich Runge, M.A. 
Strategic Research 
Pacific Legal Foundation 
 
 
 
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1 
Memorandum 
Date: December 14, 2020 
By: Erin E. Babich Runge 
Re: Chambless Enterprises LLC, et al. v. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 
I.
Eviction filings are lower than their historic averages regardless of a federal eviction
moratorium
A. Eviction Filings versus Evictions During the Pandemic
Eviction filings are not synonymous with evictions. In the State of Louisiana, landlords must file 
for eviction and go through the court process before a tenant is ever legally evicted. Furthermore, 
approximately one-third of landlords use eviction filings as means to collect fines and fees, not 
evict tenants. These eviction filings do not result in the eviction of the tenant, but in a court order 
of the tenant to pay the landlord. By placing a moratorium on eviction filings, the government is 
hindering a landlord’s ability to leverage eviction to collect fees and rent.
Princeton University’s Eviction Lab provides monthly data on eviction filings—not evictions—
from the year 2020 as a percentage of historical averages (2012-2016). Their data show that, 
despite a break in federal moratoria from June 24, 2020, through September 4, 2020, eviction 
filings did not skyrocket across the nation as expected, and neither did the wave of predicted 
evictions. 
When looking at the cities closely tracked by the Eviction Lab for monthly eviction filings as a 
percentage of their historical averages, we find that almost all cities were below their historical 
averages during the time the eviction moratoria were not in effect, indicating the federal 
moratoria may have had minimal effect on eviction filings compared to local eviction moratoria 
already in place. 
The following table shows the monthly number of eviction filings in 2020 for the cities tracked 
by the Eviction Lab. All but four instances of eviction filings were lower than their historical 
averages after the pandemic began in March, and those three were: Austin, Texas (March, +7), 
Gainesville, Florida (November, +6%) and Milwaukee, Wisconsin (June, +17% and July, +7%). 
There were no cases of eviction filings being greater than or equal to their historical averages 
between eviction moratoria, as would be indicated in the August and September columns. 
Table 1. 2020 City Eviction Filings as a Percentage of Historical Average (2012-2016)  
City
Jan 
Feb Mar 
Apr May 
Jun 
Jul 
Aug 
Sep 
Oct 
Nov
Austin, TX 
+31 
+54 
+7 
-97 
-96 
-84 
-93 
-94 
-92 
-91 
-92
Boston, MA 
+4 
-4 
-29 
-84 
-99 
-99 
-98 
-99 
-98 
-94 
-39
Bridgeport, CT 
-7 
-16 
-10 
-92 
-98 
-98 
-92 
-92 
-84 
-78 
-67
Charleston, SC 
-12 
-2 
-43 
-100 
-75 
-63 
-66 
-63 
-51 
-64 
-56
Cincinnati, OH 
+1 
+4 
-37 
-75 
-70 
-67 
-57 
-37 
-34 
-36 
-26
Cleveland, OH 
-23 
-19 
-70 
-100 -100 
-33 
-55 
-58 
-61 
-62 
-51
Exhibit A to Babich Runge Declaration
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Chambless Enterprises LLC, et al. v. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 
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Columbus, OH 
-2 
+3 
-49 
-78 
-76 
-52 
-53 
-41 
-25 
-25 
-16 
Fort Worth, TX 
+22 
+33 
-21 
-96 
-86 
-73 
-74 
-58 
-52 
-62 
-56 
Gainesville, FL 
-7 
+35 
-8 
-86 
-84 
-78 
-79 
-41 
-9 
-3 
+6 
Greenville, SC 
+24 
+30 
-4 
-100 
-51 
-56 
-61 
-38 
-32 
-41 
-31 
Hartford, CT 
-3 
0 
-12 
-86 
-99 
-98 
-92 
-94 
-92 
-82 
-65 
Houston, TX 
+16 
+34 
-15 
-84 
-74 
-61 
-55 
-59 
-60 
-56 
-42 
Indianapolis, IN 
+22 
+36 
-46 
-100 
-99 
-98 
-96 
-44 
-24 
-40 
-40 
Jacksonville, FL 
+9 
+26 
-14 
-95 
-97 
-95 
-95 
-24 
-17 
-13 
-5 
Kansas City, MO 
-7 
-15 
-25 
-78 
-76 
-71 
-66 
-45 
-50 
-56 
-64 
Memphis, TN 
+1 
+1 
-30 
-82 
-71 
-57 
-53 
-55 
-38 
-32 
-35 
Milwaukee, WI 
+21 
+26 
-50 
-99 
-95 
+17 
+9 
-36 
-59 
-45 
-39 
Minneapolis-SP, MN 
-13 
-17 
-56 
-97 
-98 
-96 
-96 
-95 
-94 
-92 
-88 
New York, NY 
-27 
-32 
-54 
-100 -100 -100 
-90 
-73 
-61 
-59 
-70 
Philadelphia, PA 
+11 
+3 
-51 
-100 -100 -100 
-90 
-91 
-62 
-60 
-65 
Phoenix, AZ 
+5 
+24 
-5 
-62 
-71 
-70 
-70 
-67 
-53 
-48 
-46 
Pittsburgh, PA 
+9 
+7 
-51 
-100 -100 
-95 
-94 
-94 
-25 
-60 
-62 
Richmond, VA 
-16 
-8 
-34 
-89 
-80 
-91 
-74 
-62 
-42 
-37 
-81 
South Bend, IN 
+29 
+2 
-69 
-93 
-92 
-81 
-86 
-51 
-42 
-53 
-57 
St. Louis, MO 
+12 
+7 
-21 
-89 
-87 
-88 
-64 
-55 
-62 
-70 
-58 
Tampa, FL 
-2 
+3 
-14 
-76 
-76 
-84 
-86 
-50 
-24 
-13 
-2 
Wilmington, DE 
-9 
-1 
-48 
-100 
-99 
-98 
-74 
-68 
-54 
-54 
-53 
Source: https://evictionlab.org/eviction-tracking/ 
 
B. Louisiana Eviction Filings and the Spread of COVID-19 
The state of Louisiana placed a statewide eviction moratorium from May 15, 2020 extended 
through June 15, 2020. Louisiana has not since had a state-based eviction moratorium. As of 
2016 (later data not available), the Eviction Lab found the eviction filing rate in Louisiana is 
5.95% (lower than the national average of 6.12%) and the actual eviction rate is as low as 2.64%. 
 
The CDC did not wholly accept the results from a journal article from The Lancet and claimed 
that evicted tenants would likely move into close quarters with others and thus spread COVID-
19: “…32% of renters reported that they would move in with friends or family members upon 
eviction, which would introduce new household members and potentially increase household 
crowding. Studies show that COVID-19 transmission occurs readily within households; 
household contacts are estimated to be 6 times more likely to become infected by an index case 
of COVID-19 than other close contacts.” 
 
Although it is true that the study found SARS-CoV-2 transmission mostly occurred through 
close contacts, such as individuals living together in a household, less than one in six of those 
contacts were infected, and had an even lower subsequent infection rate after the household 
member was infected. 
 
Furthermore, that same study—cited by the CDC—acknowledged that the impact of isolation 
and contact tracing was uncertain because the number of asymptomatic cases is unknown. 
Therefore, the degree to which eviction moratoriums will prevent the spread of COVID-19 is 
also unknown. 
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Chambless Enterprises LLC, et al. v. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 
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II. 
Do most people become homeless upon eviction? 
 
A. Louisiana and Homelessness 
Louisiana has a relatively low homeless rate compared to other U.S. states. The U.S. Interagency 
Council on Homelessness shows that Louisiana’s homelessness rate for “Total People 
Experiencing Homelessness” in 2019 was only 0.52% of the state’s population, and just 446 
experience chronic homelessness. Of the homeless population, only 41% are unsheltered. If we 
examine how many chronically homeless residents are unsheltered, there are 183 individuals. 
 
B. Homeless Residents in Louisiana have been mostly protected during the Pandemic 
There is widespread concern over the spread of COVID-19, particularly among vulnerable 
populations. Louisiana is home to approximately 4.649 million people. Of those, roughly 24,175 
are homeless. Of the homeless population, there have only been 157 cases of COVID-19 with 
116 positive tests and 1 reported death as of August 25, 2020. This is just 0.0034% of the state’s 
total population. 
 
C. Eviction and Homelessness: Academic Studies 
Studies show that most people find alternative forms of shelter upon eviction. 
 
Desmond, Matthew, and Tolbert Kimbro, Rachel. “Eviction’s Fallout: Housing, Hardship, and 
Health.” Social Forces, 94 (1) (2015): 295-324. 
A survey of tenants in housing court who received eviction judgments found: “14 percent 
planned to live with kin or friends, 15 percent had found another apartment, 12 percent 
were planning on staying in a hotel or shelter or on the street, and the remaining 53 
percent simply did not know where they would stay after their eviction (Desmond  
2012).” 
 
Desmond, Matthew. “Eviction and the Reproduction of Urban Poverty.” American Journal of 
Sociology, Volume 118 (1) (2012): 88–133. 
The economic pressures of the pandemic on small landlords may make them more 
inclined to keep renters. Desmond found that landlords may be more likely to work 
something out with tenants who are behind in rent if the landlords themselves are 
struggling to survive. He cited the years of economic recession (2008 and 2009) where 
evictions did not increase. 
 
“Landlords with properties in foreclosure may have chosen not to invest the time and 
money to evict tenants only to have the bank take the building in the end. Others feeling 
the pinch may have been more willing to work with tenants who had fallen behind. 
Whatever the case may be, the crucial point for our purposes is that the recession years of 
2008 and 2009 saw no spike in evictions.” 
 
Lindblom, Eric. “Toward a Comprehensive Homelessness‐Prevention Strategy.” Housing Policy 
Debate 2, no. 3 (1990): 957-1025. 
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Chambless Enterprises LLC, et al. v. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 
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Evictions that result in homelessness are often due to no prior notice. Because Louisiana 
requires landlords to go through the court system before they can evict a tenant, the 
tenant has more time to find alternative housing, thus avoiding homelessness. 
 
“22 percent of the homeless persons who lost their residence to eviction, as reported in 
the Chicago Community Trust study, had no prior notice, and another 28 percent had 
fewer than six days to find new housing before eviction.” 
 
“Protect Tenants, Prevent Homelessness.” National Law Center on Homelessness and Poverty 
(2018). 
This report cited the following research findings regarding those who blame eviction for 
their homelessness: 12 percent of New Yorkers, 14 percent of homeless residents in Santa 
Cruz, California, and 12 percent of homeless residents in San Francisco. 
 
III. 
The Plaintiffs’ economic losses are not likely compensable 
 
Late payments and non-payments are strongly associated with very low incomes. Renter 
households with annual incomes of less than $50,000 will constitute 71% of the estimated 
eviction filings by January 2021. These low-income individuals are unlikely have the income to 
pay the owed rent after becoming evicted. 
 
According to the National Multifamily Housing Council, the percentage of rent payments made 
by the end of the month ranged from 95.2% to 96.6% from May 2019 to November 2019, 
respectively. So, we can assume approximately 3.4% to 4.8% did not pay rent in that time 
period. 
 
IV. 
Louisiana vacancy rates show that most tenants are remaining housed compared to 
prior year rates 
 
Vacancy rates may aid in identifying whether evictions are displacing tenants more than they can 
relocate to a new home. Looking at U.S. Census vacancy data from the State of Louisiana, they 
show that vacancy rates are lower in 2020 when compared 2019. This may indicate that most 
tenants are remaining housed at greater rates regardless of eviction moratoria. 
 
Table 2. 2015-2020 Louisiana State Quarterly Percent Vacancy Data 
Year 
Q1 
Q2 
Q3 
Q4 
2015 
8.8 
8.7 
9.7 
12.8 
2016 
13.6 
10.8 
11.9 
9.4 
2017 
9.6 
10.3 
10.8 
11.9 
2018 
11.3 
10.8 
8.7 
9.6 
2019 
11.5 
8.8 
10.7 
11.7 
2020 
9.4 
6.5 
8.7 
- 
Percent change 2019-2020 
-18.3 
-26.1 
-18.7 
- 
Source: https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/rates.html 
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