USMCA: Will California's Economy Survive or Thrive Under a Strong Trade Agreement with Mexico? — California State Assembly Joint Informational Hearing, December 12, 2025

Summary

A report on a joint informational hearing held December 12, 2025 at Chula Vista City Hall by the California State Assembly Committee on Economic Development, Growth, and Household Impact and the Assembly Select Committee on California–Mexico Bi-National Affairs. The hearing examined the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and its effects on California's economy ahead of the 2026 Joint Review. The report states that the agreement governs more than $1.5 trillion in annual North American trade and summarizes stakeholder views on border infrastructure, rules of origin, agricultural export barriers and digital trade. It cites border mayors' figures that border cities handle about 40 percent of more than $800 billion in annual U.S.–Mexico trade. The report closes with biographies of the hearing's panelists from academia, government and industry.

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On December 12, 2025, the California State Assembly Committee on
Economic Development, Growth, and Household Impact, in coordination
with the Assembly Select Committee on California–Mexico Bi-National
Affairs, convened a joint informational hearing at Chula Vista City Hall titled
“USMCA: Will California’s Economy Survive or Thrive Under a Strong Trade
Agreement with Mexico?” The hearing examined the impacts of the United
States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) on California’s economy, with
a particular focus on trade with Mexico, cross-border economic integration,
sector-specific implications, and issues relevant to the upcoming 2026 Joint
Review. Members emphasized that Mexico is California’s largest export
destination and that the USMCA governs more than $1.5 trillion in annual
North American trade, underscoring its central role in the state’s economic
stability and growth.

Opening remarks from Assemblymember David Alvarez and
Assemblymember José Luis Solache Jr. highlighted California’s reliance on
predictable and enforceable trade rules to sustain jobs, investment, and
competitiveness. While acknowledging that the USMCA has provided
continuity since its implementation, both Chairs noted that unresolved
disputes and enforcement challenges could pose risks to California industries if
not addressed proactively as the agreement approaches its first formal review.

This hearing brought together a diverse and highly experienced group of
leaders from academia, government, and industry, each contributing unique
expertise on U.S.–Mexico trade, regional economic integration, and the
implementation of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Scholars such as Rafael Fernández de Castro and Dr. Ismael Plascencia López
(Mexico) provided in-depth academic and policy perspectives on bilateral
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relations and regional development, while government officials including
Diana Dominguez (CA) and Miroslava Pérez López (Mexico) offered insight
into trade policy execution and international negotiations. Industry and
business leaders such as Julian Canete, Pedro Casas Alatriste (Mexico), Darrin
Monteiro, and Nicolina Hernandez highlighted the agreement’s impact on
small businesses, agriculture, manufacturing, and supply chains. Regional and
binational stakeholders, including Kenia Zamarripa, Lucas Coleman, Joaquin
Luken, and Alejandra Mier y Terán, emphasized the importance of cross-
border collaboration, trade facilitation, and infrastructure efficiency.
Additional perspectives from Chris Shimoda and Adrian Granda underscored
the critical role of transportation, logistics, and public policy in supporting
trade flows. Collectively, the panelists represent a comprehensive cross-section
of expertise, reflecting the multifaceted importance of the USMCA to
economic growth, workforce development, and cross-border cooperation.

The hearing, along with the broader collection of stakeholder comments and
testimony, presents a comprehensive assessment of the USMCA as a
foundational framework for North American trade. Across perspectives,
including border-region governments, major manufacturers, business
organizations, and state and academic experts, the agreement is widely
credited with delivering tariff-free market access, regulatory certainty, and
strengthened regional supply chains since replacing NAFTA in 2020. At the
same time, there is broad consensus that the agreement’s long-term success will
depend on targeted modernization, effective enforcement, infrastructure
investment, and stronger coordination across federal, state, local, and private-
sector actors.



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A consistent theme throughout the materials is the recognition of border
communities as the operational backbone of the USMCA. The U.S.-Mexico
Border Mayors Association (USMBMA) emphasizes that border cities
facilitate approximately 40 percent of more than $800 billion in annual U.S.–
Mexico trade, placing them at the front lines of implementation. However,
these regions face persistent challenges, including outdated ports of entry,
staffing shortages, and fragmented infrastructure planning, all of which
increase logistics costs, undermine supply-chain reliability, and negatively
impact public health and environmental conditions. To address these issues,
stakeholders call for a coordinated, trinational approach that includes
infrastructure investment, expanded 24/7 port operations, deployment of
advanced inspection and data technologies, and the establishment of binational
planning bodies to better align development across key trade corridors.

Industry perspectives further reinforce the importance of certainty and stability
within the USMCA framework. Toyota Motor North America highlights that
the agreement has enabled more than $25 billion in U.S. manufacturing
investment, alongside substantial domestic sourcing and additional
commitments to advanced technologies such as battery production. The
company credits the USMCA with strengthening U.S. automotive
competitiveness and supporting exports, while cautioning that abrupt or poorly
phased policy changes particularly to rules of origin could disrupt supply
chains and undermine long-term investment decisions. As a result, industry
stakeholders strongly advocate for regulatory predictability and phased
implementation of any modifications.

At the state level, testimony and research demonstrate the significant benefits
the USMCA provides to California’s diverse economy. As one of the largest
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beneficiaries of the agreement, California relies on tariff-free access to support
exports across agriculture, manufacturing, and digital services. Key export
sectors include agricultural products such as almonds, citrus, wine, and dairy,
as well as high-value goods and services such as electronics, medical devices,
aerospace components, software, and entertainment content. Strong digital
trade and intellectual property protections are particularly important to
California’s innovation-driven economy, enabling secure cross-border data
flows and safeguarding emerging technologies.

Despite these benefits, stakeholders identify several ongoing challenges that
could affect the agreement’s effectiveness. These include sanitary and
phytosanitary barriers impacting agricultural exports, Canadian dairy tariff-
rate quota practices, evolving regulatory policies in Mexico related to
biotechnology and pesticides, uncertainty in digital trade frameworks, and
persistent congestion at ports of entry that threatens perishable goods and just-
in-time supply chains. Addressing these issues will be critical to ensuring
continued market access and supply chain efficiency.

Testimony from state agencies, business organizations, and industry
representatives further illustrates the breadth of California’s reliance on
USMCA-related trade. Witnesses emphasize the agreement’s importance
across sectors, including agriculture, high-tech manufacturing, logistics, and
small and minority-owned businesses. Key priorities include preserving tariff-
free trade, strengthening digital protections, enforcing science-based regulatory
standards, supporting nearshoring strategies, and modernizing border and port
infrastructure. Mexican stakeholders similarly highlight the agreement’s role in
driving regional competitiveness and investment, while acknowledging the
need for continued bilateral cooperation to address implementation challenges.
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Across all materials, the upcoming 2026 USMCA Joint Review is framed as a
pivotal moment that will determine whether the agreement is extended or
renegotiated. Stakeholders broadly agree that local governments, particularly
those in border regions must play a more formal role in both the review and
implementation processes, given their direct involvement in infrastructure,
workforce development, environmental management, and trade facilitation. At
the same time, industry, academic, and state leaders emphasize the importance
of preserving the agreement’s core strengths while adapting it to evolving
economic, technological, labor, and environmental conditions.

Overall, the materials convey a clear and consistent conclusion: the USMCA
remains foundational to California’s economy and to North American
economic integration more broadly. While the agreement has delivered
substantial benefits in trade growth, investment, and supply chain resilience, its
continued success will depend on targeted improvements in infrastructure,
environmental sustainability, labor enforcement, regulatory coordination, and
inclusive governance. Continued collaboration among federal, state, and local
governments, alongside private-sector and binational partners, will be essential
to ensuring that the next phase of the USMCA supports long-term economic
growth, job creation, and global competitiveness for California and the broader
North American region.




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PANELIST BIOGRAPHIES
                 Dr. Rafael Fernández de Castro
                 Director, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies
                 UCSD

                 Rafael Fernández de Castro is a professor and director of the
Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies (USMEX), renowned for his expertise in
Mexico–U.S. bilateral relations. A former foreign policy adviser to President
Felipe Calderón, he previously founded and chaired the Department of
International Studies at ITAM in Mexico City. He is the author and editor of
numerous academic works, including Contemporary U.S.–Latin American
Relations and The United States and Mexico: Between Partnership and
Conflict (with Jorge Domínguez). Fernández de Castro has led major
international research initiatives, including serving as Project Director for the
UNDP’s Latin America Human Development Report 2013–14. He is the
founder and editor of Foreign Affairs Latin America and a regular contributor
to El Financiero and Televisa. His current work includes a book on leadership
and decision-making in Mexican foreign policy and a binational research
project on community-driven security provision in Mexico. He holds a BA in
Political Science from ITAM, an MPP from the LBJ School at the University
of Texas at Austin, and a PhD in Political Science from Georgetown
University.




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                 Dr. Ismael Plascencia
                 Ph.D. Professor
                 CETYS University

                 Dr. Ismael Plascencia López earned his Bachelor’s degree in
                 Economics from UABC (1999), a Master’s in Regional
Development from El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, and a PhD in Economics
from UABC (2006). He completed a postdoctoral fellowship at COLEF
(2008), along with research stays at the University of Limerick in Ireland
(2008) and King’s College London in the UK (2010). He taught Economics in
the COLEF master’s program in Regional Development in 2003, and courses
in Economics, Statistics, and Research Methodology across the bachelor’s,
master’s, and doctoral programs in the UABC faculties of “Economics and
International Relations” and “Accounting and Administration” from 2003 to
2023. Altogether, he has taught more than 120 courses to over 5,000
undergraduate and graduate students. He served as Director of the Faculty of
Accounting and Administration at UABC from 2019 to 2023. He has been a
member of the National System of Researchers (Level I) of the National
Council of Humanities, Science, and Technology (CONAHCYT) from 2007 to
the present. He has supervised 14 doctoral dissertations and 17 master’s theses.
He has led more than 10 research projects and is the author or co-author of 20
scientific articles, 20 books, 29 book chapters, and numerous outreach articles
on economics, regional development, and technological innovation. He has
delivered more than 20 national and international.




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                 Diana Dominguez
                 Trade and Investment Representative for the Americas,
                 California
                 Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development
                 (GO-Biz)

                 Diana Dominguez is a Trade and Investment Representative
for the Americas at the California Governor's Office of Business and Economic
Development (GO-Biz). She has been with GO-Biz for three years, starting as
an Investment Specialist. Diana has a bachelor's degree in political science
with an emphasis in international relations from the University of California,
Davis. She has experience in managing international partnerships and export
development planning, coordinating export/import seminars, and leading
trade missions. Diana's role involves working with the California Department
of Food and Agriculture and overseeing the implementation of the State Trade
Expansion Program (STEP)-funded activities




                 Julian Canete
                 President and CEO
                 California Hispanic Chambers of Commerce

                 Julian Canete is the President and CEO of the California
Hispanic Chambers of Commerce (CHCC), where he plays a pivotal role in
advocating for Hispanic businesses in California. With over 40 years of
experience, he has previously served as the Vice President & Director of Public
Policy and Strategic Partnerships for the California Asian Pacific Chamber of
Commerce. His leadership at CHCC spans multiple terms, with significant
contributions to fostering economic growth and supporting the interests of


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Hispanic entrepreneurs and businesses in the state. Julian is also a member of
various boards and organizations, including the California Department of
General Services Small Business Advisory Board and the CalTrans Small
Business Council.




                    Miroslava Pérez López
                    Director General for North America
                    Mexican Secretary of Economy

                    Miroslava Perez Lopez has 18 years of experience in
international trade negotiations and trade diplomacy, serving as a career civil
servant and as part of the International Trade Negotiating Team of the
Mexican Ministry of Economy. As a career civil servant, she has been involved
in various negotiation processes and multilateral forums, such as the WTO,
APEC, and UNCTAD, as well as in regional and bilateral trade agreements,
including: The Negotiation and Implementation of the USMCA. During the
USMCA negotiations, she was appointed Head of the Rules of Origin
Negotiating Table. The Negotiation and Implementation of the
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership
(CPTPP), as well as Trade Agreements with Latin American countries and the
Modernization of the Free Trade Agreement with the EU. The Negotiation of
the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement. - As Economic Counselor at the
Permanent Mission of Mexico to the World Trade Organization in Geneva,
Switzerland, she was responsible for Trade and Environment, Trade in
Services, Electronic Commerce, and Investment Facilitation. At the WTO, she
led Mexico's participation in the Environmental Initiatives on Trade and


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Environmental Sustainability and the Initiative on Plastic Pollution. She
currently serves as Director General for North America at the Ministry of
Economy, a role in which she is responsible for coordinating the USMCA and
Mexico's participation in bilateral trade forums with the United States and
Canada. She is also in charge of the preparatory work and coordination of
Mexico's public consultation for the USMCA review.




                Pedro Casas Alatriste
                Executive Vice President and CEO
                American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico

                Pedro Casas Alatriste is executive vice president and CEO of
the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico (AmCham), where he leads
an organization representing over 1,400 companies in Mexico. In this role, he
oversees AmCham’s strategic direction, policy advocacy, and engagement with
both Mexican and U.S. government stakeholders. Previously, Casas Alatriste
served as director of research and public policy at the U.S.-Mexico Foundation
in Washington, D.C., and as coordinator of international affairs at Mexico’s
Business Coordinating Council (CCE). He holds a BA in economics from
Universidad Iberoamericana and a master’s degree in international
development policy from Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public
Policy. He serves on the board of directors of Universidad Iberoamericana and
contributes regularly to publications such as Mexico Business News and
Mexico News Daily, offering insights on North American trade, nearshoring,
and regional economic integration.




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                 Kenia Zamarripa
                 Executive Vice President of International & Public Affairs
                 San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce

                 Kenia Zamarripa joined the San Diego Regional Chamber in
June 2017 and currently serves as Vice President, International and Public
Affairs. In this role, she oversees the Chamber’s international and public policy
efforts and works to advance business, political, and cultural relationships
across the regional business community. Under Kenia’s leadership the
Chamber IPA team manages a robust advocacy agenda focused on business-
friendly legislation, strengthening the binational business climate, and
supporting cross-border trade. Kenia also spearheads the coordination of the
Chamber’s annual binational delegation trips to Washington, D.C.,
Sacramento, and Mexico City to advance our region’s priorities and advocacy
agenda.
Formerly Director of Marketing and International Affairs for the Sportfishing
Association of California, Kenia fostered close working relationships with key
government, business, industry, and association officials in Mexico and San
Diego. She also led key projects with the Mexican government to establish new
permitting protocols for foreign tourists. In addition, she coordinated regular
public outreach efforts to educate and provide updates from the Mexican
government on issues and regulations pertinent to the sport fishing
community.
Kenia holds positions on various community and binational organizations
including as Vice Chair of the City of San Diego’s International Affairs Board,
and Board Member of the Border Trade Alliance, an organization that
advocates for policies and initiatives to enhance border affairs and trade within
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North America. Kenia acquired her BA in Marketing Administration from
CETYS Universidad in Tijuana, Mexico in 2009. In 2015, she completed her
MSc in Global Marketing Management from the University of Liverpool, UK.
In 2017, she also received her PG Certificate in Human Resources from the
University of Liverpool, UK. She is also a 2019 graduate of LEAD San
Diego’s Impact program and a member of the HOPE Leadership Institute’s
2021 cohort.




                Lucas Coleman
                Director
                World Trade Center (WTC) San Diego

                Lucas Coleman is the director of the World Trade Center
team at the San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation. He
oversees the team's efforts in supporting regional exports, maximizing foreign
direct investment, and enhancing San Diego's global identity and connectivity.
Coleman's activities include executing the MetroConnect export assistance
program, managing foreign investment projects, and coordinating international
trade missions. He has a Bachelor of Arts from San Diego State University
with an emphasis in Japan/East Asia and is fluent in Japanese. Coleman's
leadership at the World Trade Center San Diego has been instrumental in
bringing an Export Specialty Small Business Development Center to the
region, providing technical advising and support to small businesses.




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                 Joaquin Luken
                 Executive Director
                 Smart Border Coalition

                 Joaquin Luken is a business development and management
professional with over 20 years of experience on U.S.-Mexico border issues.
With a deep understanding of the intricacies of cross-border commerce and
collaboration, Luken brings a wealth of expertise to his work. Luken currently
serves as the executive director of the Smart Border Coalition, a binational
stakeholder group dedicated to creating border crossing efficiencies in the San
Diego-Tijuana region. In this role, he acts as a bridgebuilder between
organizations in Mexico and the U.S., working collaboratively to enhance
border operations and facilitate smooth cross-border interactions. Luken’s
leadership and expertise contribute significantly to the coalition's mission of
fostering cooperation and improving the legitimate flow of people, goods, and
services across the border. Born in San Diego and raised in Tijuana, Luken
began his career as the associate director of the Otay Mesa Chamber of
Commerce, a leading binational organization with over 350 active members.
He played a pivotal role in fostering economic growth and cross-border
business relationships, organizing important binational networking events, and
creating business opportunities for his members. Luken’s dedication and efforts
led to significant advancements in the region. Following his tenure at the Otay
Mesa Chamber of Commerce, Luken served as a business development
representative for the South Bay Expressway, where he represented the project
to the binational stakeholder community. In this role, Luken expanded his
knowledge and network in the field, contributing to the development and
promotion of cross-border projects. Luken holds a bachelor’s in business

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administration from the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de
Monterrey. Additionally, he earned a certificate in Global Strategy &
Management from the University of San Diego. His educational background,
combined with diverse professional experiences in real estate publishing, trade
organizations, marketing, communications, sales, and program development,
has shaped him into a well-rounded and adaptable professional.




                 Alejandra Mier y Teran
                 Executive Director
                 Otay Mesa Chamber of Commerce

                 Alejandra Mier y Terán has been the Executive
Director/CEO for the Otay Mesa Chamber of Commerce for 26 years.
Alejandra transformed the Chamber into a binational economic development
engine assisting industrial businesses on both sides of the border. Prior to her
role at the Chamber, Alejandra was marketing manager for San Diego
Dialogue, a UCSD public policy center working on cross-border Cooperation.
Alejandra attended the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México in Mexico
City, where she became an economist and gained experience in the
international trade arena in Mexico’s Department of Commerce. Alejandra
currently serves on the Board of the International Community Foundation, a
San Diego-based community foundation that makes transformative
investments in Mexico’s cross-border community. Alejandra is also a member
of the Otay Mesa Planning Group.




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                 Nicolina Hernandez
                 Regional Director of State Government Affairs
                 Toyota Motor North America

                 Nicolina Hernandez serves as regional director of State
Government Affairs for Toyota Motor North America, overseeing engagement
across seven Western states and contributing to Toyota’s Trilateral Work
Group. With more than 17 years of policy experience, she has held roles as a
legislative staff member in the State Capitol, as well as a contract consultant
and in-house government affairs professional for public agencies and Fortune
100 companies on workforce, transportation, and energy issues. Based in
Sacramento, she sits on the boards of the California International Relations
Foundation and the Institute for Governmental Advocates and serves as a City
Planning Commissioner. A native of Fresno County, she is an alumna of
Carleton College in Minnesota, the HOPE Leadership Institute, the Senate
Fellowship Program, and the McNair Fellowship




                 Chris Shimoda
                 Principal and CEO
                 Shimoda Government Strategies

                 As Principal and CEO of Shimoda Government Strategies
LLC, Chris Shimoda has two decades of Government experience, most
recently as Senior Vice President of Government Affairs for the California
Trucking Association (CTA), the nation’s largest statewide organization
representing the $900b trucking industry. As CTA’s longtime Lead Lobbyist,


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regulatory affairs expert, political strategist and spokesperson, Chris delivered
major legislative, regulatory and legal wins for the over 1,000-member
organization. Working collaboratively with in-house corporate government
affairs, CEOs of multi-generation family businesses, general and regulatory
counsels, contract lobbyists and a broad coalition of trade associations and
business chambers, Chris has solved problems both big and small with a sharp
focus on the business needs of his clients. Chris is a graduate of UC Davis and
enjoys spending time with his wife and two children.




                 Darrin Monteiro
                 Senior Vice President of Sustainability & Member Relations
                 California Dairies Inc.

                 Darrin Monteiro is the Chief Member Relations Officer for
California Dairies, Inc. He manages CDI’s strategy development and
implementation regarding sustainability and government relations.
Additionally, he engages with customers, identifying and securing value-add
opportunities on behalf of CDI and our member-owners. Darrin also manages
the CDI Member Relations team, CDI Transportation and oversight of ranch-
to-plant milk sales for the company.
With nearly 25 years of experience in the industry, he started his career on his
family farm, Monteiro Bros. Dairy. Prior to joining CDI, Darrin worked for
the USDA – Farm Service Agency




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                   Adrian Granda
                   Director of Government Relations
                   Port of Long Beach

                   Adrian Granda is the Director of Government Relations for
the Port of Long Beach, California, reporting to the Managing Director of the
Strategic Advocacy Bureau that also oversees the Communications and
Community Relations Division. He was appointed to the post in May 2024 by
the Long Beach Board of Harbor Commissioners, the city’s governing body for
the Port. The Government Relations Division is responsible for advising the
Port’s Executive Director and the Harbor Commission on Port-related
legislative issues and assisting in the formulation of the Port’s legislative
agenda. In his capacity as Director, Mr. Granda serves as the Port’s
representative to federal, state and local governments and oversees the
activities of the Port’s legislative advocates in Sacramento and Washington.
Mr. Granda is a public affairs and government relations professional with
more than 13 years of public service experience working on federal and state
advocacy, public policy, and community engagement.




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