Turkey Earthquake and Cascadia Rising 22: Observations and Lessons Learned
- Issuer
- Congressional materials
- Document type
- 2023 03 21 A31078 D258484 Wa Military Department Earthquake Preparedness Overview
- Date
- 2023-03-21
- Case
- 2023 03 21 A31078 D258484 Wa Military Department Earthquake Preparedness Overview
Summary
Turkey Earthquake and Cascadia Rising 22 Observations and Lessons Learned is a slide briefing to the House Innovation, Community & Economic Development, and Veterans Committee dated March 21, 2023, presented by Robert Ezelle, Director of the Emergency Management Division of the Washington Military Department. It compares the February 2023 earthquakes in Turkey with the 2001 Nisqually quake and lists lessons learned on building codes, mitigation and vulnerable populations. It describes risks from the Seattle, Tacoma and Southern Whidbey Island faults and the Cascadia Subduction Zone, including a 15-25% chance of a major rupture within the next 50 years, and projected impacts on hospitals and transportation. It reviews conclusions from the Cascadia Rising 16 and 22 exercises and closes with an action plan and recommendations such as retrofitting high-risk buildings.
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Cite this document
“2023 03 21 A31078 D258484 Wa Military Department Earthquake Preparedness Overview.”
Original at app.leg.wa.gov, dated 2023-03-21. Archived at Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/source-documents/2023-03-21-2023-03-21-a31078-d258484-wa-military-department-earthquake-preparedness-overview/
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Turkey Earthquake and Cascadia Rising
22 Observations and Lessons Learned
Briefing to the House Innovation, Community & Economic
Development, and Veterans Committee
March 21, 2023
Robert Ezelle
Director, Emergency Management Division
Washington Military Department
Washington’s Probability of an Earthquake in the Next 50 Years
– Get Prepared Now
An increase of 1 in magnitude 15-25% Probability
results in 32x more energy M9.0+
released by an earthquake.
Thus, an M7.0 releases 32x
more energy than a M6.0, and 25-40% Probability
an M8.0 releases 1024x the M8.0+
energy of an M6.0!
Area of circles to the right
represent relative energy 84% Probability
release for M 6, 7, 8, and 9 M7.0
x
earthquakes x
2001 Nisqually Quake, M6.8 M6.0
Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale
M7.8 and M7.5 earthquakes in Turkey (Türkiye)
The magnitude 7.8 earthquake rupture had one of the longest inland crustal strike-slip ruptures in the world—
comparable to the 1906 San Francisco earthquake which ruptured along the San Andreas Fault. Parts of the fault
shifted 10 to over 30 feet. These fault ruptures are visible in satellite and radar imagery. There have been thousands
of aftershocks, which will continue for years.
STRIKE-SLIP
Image Source: https://theconversation.com/turkey-syria-earthquakes-shallow-depth-of-main-shocks-is-a-key-reason-why-theyve-been-so-devastating-199540
Comparison with 2001 Nisqually Quake
• Nisqually M6.8, 2/28/2001 – 54 km (33 miles) deep
– Maximum Mercalli Intensity of VIII (Severe)
– 45 seconds of ground shaking
– >$2 Billion in damages
• First Turkey Quake M7.8 – 2/6/2023 – 10 km (~6 miles) deep
– Maximum Mercalli Intensity IX (Violent)
– Longer duration (1-2 minutes of Shaking)
– Approximately 32X the energy release of Nisqually
• Second Turkey Quake M7.5 – 2/6/2023 – 15 km (~9 miles) deep
– Maximum Mercalli Intensity IX (Violent)
– Longer duration (1-2 minutes of shaking)
– Approximately 11X the energy release of Nisqually Earthquake
Nisqually Earthquake M 6.8 – Depth: 51.8 km Scale: Fault (red, high-intensity line) Approximately 400
km long
200 km
Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale (for both maps)
70 km
Turkey (Türkiye) Response Lessons Learned
• Apply engineering and scientific knowledge into practice
– Building code design updates
– Building code enforcement
– Construction inspections
• Preparedness and building upgrades save lives
- Mitigation programs need to be sustained long-term and funded
• In a disaster, the vulnerable populations suffer the most
• In a disaster, do not delay to activate resources
Washington has the 2nd Highest EQ risk in the US
• WA experiences a Damaging earthquake
approximately every 30-50 years
– Last was the Nisqually Quake (M6.8)
– >$2 Billion Damage
• WA experiences a Magnitude 9
earthquake approximately every 300-600
years
– Last was Jan 1700 (323+ years ago)
– Next rupture will be most devastating and
costly disaster in US history
• Every earthquake may be followed by
M9 recurrence 300-600 years
numerous aftershocks possibly for years
M7 recurrence 30-50 years
Shallow / Crustal Fault Earthquakes
Seattle Fault
• Magnitude 7.2
• At least 4 earthquakes within the last
8,000 years. The most recent was
1,100 years ago, AD 900.
Shallow EQ: More intense shaking,
heavy infrastructure damage and
more aftershocks
Maximum Expected Mercalli Intensity
IX (Violent)
Potential to also cause a tsunami
Shallow / Crustal Fault Earthquakes
Tacoma Fault
• Magnitude 7.2
• At least one earthquake
1,100 years ago,
approximately Magnitude 7.
Maximum Expected Mercalli
Intensity IX (Violent)
Potential to also cause a tsunami
Shallow / Crustal Fault Earthquakes
Southern Whidbey Island Fault
• Magnitude 7.4
• At least four earthquakes
in the last 16,000 years.
The most recent was less
than 2,700 years ago.
Maximum Expected Mercalli
Intensity IX (Violent)
Potential to also cause a tsunami
1 Order Effects – Ground Shaking
st
1st Order Effects – Soil Liquefaction
1st Order Effects - Tsunami
Earthquake Damage
• Is a function of:
– Shaking intensity and duration
• Distance from epicenter
• Soil type and liquefaction potential
– Construction
• Structural systems
• Construction standards
• In-building systems bracing ONE MITIGATION DOLLAR SPENT
EQUATES TO SIX RECOVERY
– Pre-earthquake risk mitigation DOLLARS SAVED
Impacts (2012 data)
(Does Not Include Tsunami Damage)
Seattle Fault Tacoma Fault Southern Whidbey Island
Fault
Number of counties impacted 15 16 18
Total casualties at 2:00 p.m. 17,677 6,070 7,793
Total number of buildings extensively or 38,156 19,867 23,760
completely damaged
Income losses in millions $5,133 $1,847 $2,224
Displaced households 31,278 11,567 13,948
Capital stock losses in millions $19,868 $8,654 $10,315
Truckloads of debris (25 tons per truckload) 296,720 117,960 142,960
Washington Building Seismic Design Post-1975
Region Low Moderate High
Ductility Ductility Ductility
Puget Sound 1976-1977 1978-1998 >1998
Extended Puget 1978-1989 1990-1998 >1998
Sound
Coastal WA 1978-1995 1996-1998 >1998
Eastern WA 1978-1991 >1992*
*Low-Moderate Ductility
*Ductility refers to how much a structure is able to
bend without breaking.
Confinement of non-ductile support structures with
steel is one way to make them more ductile.
Recovery Standards
• Life Safety – Preserve life safety but not necessarily retain
function (current building code standard)
• Functional Recovery – Retain capacity to support intended
functions within a maximum acceptable time
• Immediate Occupancy – Retain function following a design-
level event (desired building code standard for certain
structures)
At-Risk Buildings – Unreinforced Masonry (URM)
Note: We need funding to complete the URM
inventory for the state in order to fully
understand our risk. This includes creating a
user-friendly online portal for decision-makers
to access the data and provide guidance on
how to access mitigation funding.
Other At-Risk Buildings
Non-ductile concrete Soft-story buildings
(lack of rebar ties) (extensive openings at grade)
Washington has the 2nd Highest EQ risk in the US
• WA experiences a Damaging earthquake
approximately every 30-50 years
– Last was the Nisqually Quake (M6.8)
– >$2 Billion Damage
• WA experiences a Magnitude 9
earthquake approximately every 300-600
years
– Last was Jan 1700 (323+ years ago)
– Next rupture will be most devastating and
costly disaster in US history
• Every earthquake may be followed by
M9 recurrence 300-600 years
numerous aftershocks possibly for years
M7 recurrence 30-50 years
Cascadia Subduction Zone
“Big One”
• Potentially largest catastrophic disaster in US
• 700 miles long
• Breaks 300-600 years
• Last great rupture in 1700 (323+ years ago)
• 15-25% chance within next 50 years
• Magnitude 8.0-9.0+
• Shaking felt for 3-6 minutes
• Earthquake followed by a major tsunami hitting WA’s
outer coast in 15-20 min
• Many large aftershocks will follow main quake and
thousands of aftershocks for many years
Cascadia Ground Shaking Graphic
Cascadia Impacts
Hospitals
There are 112 in the impacted area
Approx 36% suffer severe damage
Approx 17% suffer moderate damage
Approx 47% suffer slight damage
Total reduction in hospital capacity is
projected at 45%
There will be very little hospital capacity
west of the I-5 corridor
These numbers identify Structural
capacity, not patient capacity, which is
further reduced due to lack of power,
water, sanitation, etc.
Cascadia Impacts
Senior Living Facilities
There are approx. 2,156 in the impacted
area
Significant numbers (approaching 100%)
of facilities west of the I-5 corridor suffer
extensive damage and are likely
unusable
The facilities nearest the epicenter suffer
the most extensive damage
Cascadia Impacts
Cascadia Impacts
Cascadia Impacts
Transportation - Sea, Air, Rail
Most facilities west of the I-5 corridor
suffer complete to severe damage
Most facilities along the I-5 corridor suffer
severe to moderate damage
Most facilities east of the I-5 corridor
suffer slight to no damage
Many of these facilities are located in
liquefaction zones
Cascadia Rising Exercise Series
CR 16, 7 - 10 June 2016
CR 22, 13 - 17 June 2022
CR 28, TBD
Cascadia Rising 16 and 22
PLANNING FACTORS PARTICIPANTS
CR16 CR22 CR16 CR22
Start Time (Day) 0 4 Individual Registrations 400+ 750+
Focus Areas: Participating States 2 3
Operational Coordination x x Tribal Nations 12 16
Operational Communication x x State Agencies 20 13
Situational Awareness x Counties 29 32
Mass Care x x Private Sector 17 5
Public Health and Medical Svcs x NGO/Non-Profit 3 17
Critical Transportation x x Healthcare 13
Logistics & Supply Chain Mgt x
Housing and Economic Recovery x
33
CR16-CR22 Conclusions
• Time is of the Essence
– Humanitarian needs will be immediate and overwhelming
• Detailed Planning is Imperative
– We must conduct robust planning in advance for the immediate response actions that must be
taken
• Critical Transportation
– In order to save lives and support impacted communities a drastic increase in critical
transportation (ground, air, maritime, and rail) planning, mitigation, and effective coordination
is needed to significantly bolster immediate response and short- and long-term recovery
efforts.
• Communication Infrastructure
– Widespread disruptions will significantly impede the emergency management community’s
ability to coordinate response operations, resource needs, and synchronized ground, air,
maritime, and rail movement with federal partners and local jurisdictions.
CR16-CR22 Conclusions
• Mass Care Services
– We must focus on comprehensive (local and state) mass care (shelter, feeding, hydrating,
financial, housing, etc.) planning to reduce recovery time and long term costs.
• Operational Coordination Response Planning
– We must conduct robust operational coordination planning to synchronize the restoration of
critical infrastructure to support lifesaving and life-sustaining activities and facilitate the
transition to long term recovery.
• Individual and Public Preparedness
– Two Weeks Ready
What has been Done?
• Resilient Washington Subcabinet
• Published the Catastrophic Incident Annex Base Plan including:
– Two appendices and 11 annexes
• Published the Washington Restoration Framework (WRF) including:
– Eight (8) Recovery Support Functions (RSF)
• Improved energy and fuel public and private sector critical infrastructure
planning
• Communications capabilities continue to improve with the advancement
of technology
• 2 vertical evacuation shelters built
Action Plan
• Critical Transportation
– Identify and prioritize state, tribal, and local logistical and evacuation routes across the
state.
– Identify air and maritime capabilities needed to augment and/or supplant highway and
road capabilities.
• Operational Communications
– Identify key resources to enable coordination of ground, air, maritime resource movement
and evacuation.
• Mass Care Services
– Conduct additional planning, coordination and identify necessary resources to support local
and state Mass Care Services.
– Leverage the Washington Restoration Framework to enhance our capability to begin
coordinating short- / long-term economic recovery and housing. 37
Action Plan
• Logistics and Supply Chain Management
– Conduct additional exercises to build public and private sector Commodity Flow and
Business Re-Entry as force multipliers to recovery.
– Further exploration needed to understand impacts to national supply chain efforts.
• Continued focus on coastal resilience
– Includes construction of additional vertical evacuation shelters
• Emergency Communications
– Planning and investment
• Individual and Family Preparedness
38
Food for Thought
• Are we willing to pay now for post incident functionality?
• To which standard do we build?
– Roads and bridges
– Public safety facilities
– Schools
– Critical infrastructure
• What do we retrofit and to which standard?
• Do we stockpile? If so, what?
• Which capabilities do we build or enhance?
ONE MITIGATION DOLLAR SPENT EQUATES TO SIX RECOVERY DOLLARS SAVED
Recommendations
• Develop a seismic resilience strategy that includes multimodal
transportation, public structures, high risk buildings, communications,
etc.
• Invest in resilient and survivable transportation and communications
• Complete identification and assessment of our high risk buildings
• Retrofit our high-risk buildings (URM's, schools, hospitals etc.)
• Require certain school and public buildings to be built to an immediate
occupancy standard
• Plan for limited stockpiling of certain critical commodities for key
responders (Police, Fire, EMS, Medical)
Questions/Discussion
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