ABCs Interim Analysis, March 31, 2021 (To: Joint Legislative Education Oversight Committee)
Summary
Interim report dated March 31, 2021 from the ABC Science Collaborative, addressed to the Joint Legislative Education Oversight Committee and other North Carolina bodies, regarding The Reopen Our Schools Act of 2021. The report states that the NC Department of Public Instruction engaged the ABC Science Collaborative, through the Duke Clinical Research Institute, to collate, analyze, and interpret COVID-19 data from middle and high schools in Plan A. As of March 29, the NC DHHS had notified the collaborative that 71 school districts and 6 charter schools were operating in Plan A for middle or high school. The collaborative anticipates receiving its first set of infection data April 5th and includes a draft template for reporting data in subsequent reports.
Summary drafted by a model from the document's text below and checked by script against that text before publication. It is a navigation aid, not a reading of what the document proves. Where AI is used
Cite this document
“ABCs Interim Analysis, March 31, 2021 (To: Joint Legislative Education Oversight Committee).”
Archived at Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/source-documents/undated-abcs-interim-analysis-march-31-2021-8f843aa9c9/
, SHA-256 1153116710e50d004ab75666b516c683c028c55df10879eaa4b053cefe126c03.Full text
March 31, 2021
TO: Joint Legislative Education Oversight Committee
Senate Education/Higher Education Committee
House Education K‐12 Committee
Department of Public Instruction
State Board of Education
Department of Health and Human Services
Office of the Governor
Re: “The Reopen Our Schools Act of 2021” (S.L. 2021‐4)
ABC Science Collaborative, Interim Report
Dear Members,
Enclosed please find the first Interim Analysis of NC Schools Operating in Plan A.
As directed by the legislation, the NC Department of Public Instruction engaged the ABC Science
Collaborative (through the Duke Clinical Research Institute) to collate, analyze, and interpret COVID‐19
data from middle and high schools in Plan A. We refer to this initiative as the ABCs of North Carolina’s
Plan A, and we have posted a fact sheet, information about the district reporting process, and other
materials at this link for your reference.
The ABC Science Collaborative will submit analysis of aggregate data for all partnering units no later than
the last calendar day of March, April, and May of 2021 and final analysis no later than June 30, 2021.
Listing of NC School Districts in Plan A
As of March 29, the NC DHHS has notified the ABC Science Collaborative that 71 school districts and 6
charter schools were operating in Plan A for middle or high school. The charts on the following pages
identify these districts and schools and indicate their start date in Plan A; if the district or school has high
schools or middle schools in Plan A; the number of schools within the district or charter system; and the
number of students in the district or school. Future reports will add information on physical distancing
and the number of students per bus seat.
Data Reporting
Also included in this Interim Analysis is a draft template for the reporting of data in subsequent reports
due to you. I welcome your feedback on this.
Interpretation of Data
Schools and school systems should prevent within‐school transmission. As we have previously shown,
when there is COVID in the community, there will be COVID in the schools; however, schools should
prevent the acquisition of COVID on school property— “within‐school transmission”. We have shown
that North Carolina schools can prevent within‐school transmission; and investigators in other states
and other countries have now replicated our work. Based on these studies, we have a reasonable
estimate of the anticipated amount of within school transmission of COVID‐19. This anticipated amount
of within‐school transmission depends on the size of the district and other factors (e.g., the number of
students who, for medical or cognitive reasons, cannot mask).
Course Correction
If school districts have higher than anticipated within‐school transmission of COVID‐19, we will contact
the school district directly. We will then take the following steps.
1) We will review school district data with the superintendent to ensure that our
understanding of the data is correct and confirm the greater‐than‐anticipated within‐school
transmission
2) We will seek to understand why the LEA might have higher rates
3) We will discuss lessons‐learned from other districts. Throughout the school year,
superintendents in North Carolina have worked peer‐to‐peer and with ABC to devise
protocols related to lunch, extra‐curricular activities.
4) We will discuss potential course correction strategies. Throughout the year, superintendents
in North Carolina have worked with ABC to form school safety teams and specific action
plans to improve mask compliance.
5) We will inform DPI and DHHS of concerning data and (if necessary) course correction plans
Of Note
LEAs are required to submit data every two weeks. The first districts started Plan A on March 22nd. We
therefore anticipate receiving our first set of infection data April 5th. We anticipate that our report on
April 30th will have infection data, and that we will have preliminary information of the safety of Plan A
in North Carolina high schools and middle schools for your consideration.
Regards,
Danny Benjamin, MD MPH PhD
Distinguished Professor of Pediatrics, Duke University
Deputy Director, Duke Clinical Research Institute
2
NC School Districts in Plan A ‐ March 29, 2021
Start Date for HS in MS in Number of 2020‐21 School Year
School District Distancing Busing Plan
Plan A Plan A Plan A Schools ADM (Month 2)
Alleghany County Schools 3/29/21 Y Y 4 1293
Ashe County Schools 3/29/21 Y Y 6 2813
Asheboro City Schools 4/6/21 Y Y 8 4418
Beaufort County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 14 5887
Bladen County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 13 3868
Brunswick County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 19 12060
Buncombe County Schools 3/21/21 Y Y 44 22031
Cabbarus County Schools 4/13/21 Y Y 39 32668
Caldwell County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 26 10591
Camden County Schools 3/29/21 Y Y 5 1758
Carteret County Schools 3/29/21 Y Y 18 7743
Charlotte Mecklenburg Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 175 138884
Clay County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 3 1172
Cleveland County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 29 13791
Columbus County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 17 5162
Currituck County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 10 4078
Duplin County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 13 9394
Elkin City Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 3 1216
Franklin County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 16 7724
Gaston County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 55 29318
3
Start Date for HS in MS in Number of 2020‐21 School Year
School District Distancing Busing Plan
Plan A Plan A Plan A Schools ADM (Month 2)
Graham County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 3 1062
Granville County Public Schools 4/19/21 Y Y 18 6816
Greene County Schools 4/13/21 Y Y 3 2700
Harnett County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 28 19256
Haywood County Schools 3/23/21 Y Y 15 6707
Henderson County Public Schools 3/23/21 Y Y 23 12927
Hickory City Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 9 3882
Hoke County Schools 4/12/21 N Y 14 8342
Hyde County Schools 3/15/21 Y Y 3 514
Iredell‐Statesville Schools 4/7/21 Y Y 37 20001
Jackson County Public Schools 4/5/21 Y Y 9 3517
Johnston County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 45 35906
Jones County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 5 950
Lexington City Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 7 2962
Lincoln County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 23 11019
Macon County Schools 4/5/21 Y Y 11 4300
Madison County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 7 2139
McDowell County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 14 5677
Mitchell County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 7 1738
Montgomery County Schools 4/1/21 Y Y 12 3495
Moore County Schools 3/29/21 Y Y 24 12363
4
Start Date for HS in MS in Number of 2020‐21 School Year
School District Distancing Busing Plan
Plan A Plan A Plan A Schools ADM (Month 2)
Mooresville Graded School District 4/7/21 Y Y 8 5931
Mt. Airy City Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 4 1643
New Hanover County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 42 25952
Newton‐Conover City Schools 4/14/21 Y Y 7 24368
Onslow County Schools 4/6/21 Y Y 36 26864
Pender County Schools 4/6/21 Y Y 18 9344
Perquimans County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 4 1566
Person County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 11 4258
Polk County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 7 2068
Public Schools of Robeson County 4/12/21 N Y 40 20478
Randolph County School System 4/6/21 Y Y 31 15049
Roanoke Rapids Graded School District 3/29/21 Y Y 5 2573
Rutherford County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 18 7308
Scotland County Schools 4/13/21 Y Y 12 5273
Stokes County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 19 5455
Surry County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 19 7113
Swain County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 5 1845
Thomasville City Schools 4/19/21 Y Y 4 2070
Transylvania County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 9 3181
Tyrell County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 3 541
Union County Public Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 52 39727
5
Start Date for HS in MS in Number of 2020‐21 School Year
School District Distancing Busing Plan
Plan A Plan A Plan A Schools ADM (Month 2)
Vance County Schools 4/12/21 N Y 15 4954
Wake County Public Schools System 4/5/21 Y Y 187 157673
Watauga County Schools 4/12/21 Y Y 10 4468
Wayne County Schools 3/29/21 Y Y 18 17223
Whiteville City Schools 3/29/21 Y Y 5 2050
Wilkes County Schools 3/24/21 Y Y 22 8469
Wilson County Schools 3/29/21 Y Y 26 10315
Yadkin County Schools 4/6/21 Y Y 14 4959
Yancey County Schools 3/22/21 Y Y 9 1889
1494 906,749
6
NC Charter Schools Participating in Plan A
Number 2020‐21 School
Start Date HS in MS in Busing
Charter School of Year ADM Distancing
for Plan A Plan A Plan A Plan
Schools (Month 2)
ArtSpace Charter School 4/13/21 ‐ Y 1 389
Healthy Start Academy 4/6/21 N Y 1 412
Catamount School Western
4/5/21 N Y 1 56
Carolina University
D.C. Virgo Preparatory Academy 4/12/20 ‐ Y 1 238
The Franklin School of
4/12/20 Y Y 1 520
Innovation, Inc.
Voyager Academy 4/12/21 Y Y 1 1353
6 2,968
7
Template for the reporting of data in future months
Below is the format that will include the latest month’s data. These reports will be included in the April,
May, and June reports. We welcome your review and feedback on this format.
NC School Schools in Plan A
Sample Template
Within‐
District Distance Bus District Community Transmission Risk
school
ID Practice Practice Size Infections Ratio Assessment
Transmission
1 None 1 Small 10 0 0 Low
2 3 feet 1 Medium 63 3 21 Low
3 3 feet 2 Medium 15 5 3 High
4 >3 feet 2 Small 107 7 15 Low
5 6 feet 2 Large 150 1 150 Low
Table Definitions
District ID District size
Districts will be assigned a number in order to Baseline number of individuals attending
deidentify the district name. in‐person school:
o Small – < 2500
Distance Practice o Medium – 2500‐15000
Districts will report on their physical distancing o Large – > 15000
practice:
o None Community Infections
o Less than 3 feet Community acquired infection brought to school.
o 3 feet
o Greater than or equal to 6 feet Within School Transmission
Infections acquired within the school.
Bus Practice
Districts will report the number of students Transmission Ratio
permitted to share a seat: Number of community acquisitions/Number of
o 0 (some seats are left empty on purpose) school acquisitions:
o 1 o TR < 10
o 2 o TR 10‐100
o 3 o TR >100
Risk Assessment
High risk is one or more clusters, Transmission Ratio
<10, or Substantial number of within‐school
transmission in schools.
8
File and source
- File
- undated_ABCs-Interim-Analysis-March-31-2021.pdf
- Size
- 263,033 bytes
- SHA-256
- 1153116710e50d004ab75666b516c683c028c55df10879eaa4b053cefe126c03
- Original
- No public link identified.