The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS): Evaluation July 2023, The Policy and Key Statistics
Summary
The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) final evaluation, July 2023. The document states that a total of 1.3 million employers and 11.7 million employments were supported, with claims totalling £70 billion, and that the scheme enabled employers to put employees on furlough and claim up to 80% of their wages. It states that the evaluation found the CJRS was good value for money, with a social net benefit of £50 billion and a social benefit to cost ratio of around 4:1. It also states that HMRC estimates the rate of error and fraud for the lifecycle of the full scheme (1 March 2020 to 30 September 2021) is between 3.0% and 7.8%, most likely 5.1%, or a most likely £3.5 billion.
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“The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS): Evaluation July 2023, The Policy and Key Statistics.”
Original at www.gov.uk. Archived at Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/source-documents/the-coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-final-evaluation/
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The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) final evaluation July 2023
The policy and key statistics:
The CJRS was a central part of the A total of 1.3 million employers and 11.7 This design aimed to ensure employees could
million employments were supported by retain their job and the majority of their usual
government’s response to the COVID-19 salary, even if COVID-19 disruption meant that
pandemic. this scheme, with claims totalling £70
they could not work.
It focused on helping stabilise the labour billion.
Adjustments throughout the scheme’s
market by protecting jobs to ensure the The scheme enabled employers to put existence helped encourage employers to bring
economy could recover more smoothly. employees on furlough and claim up to 80% employees back to work in line with when
of their wages. restrictions eased.
The evaluation includes:
A process evaluation which assessed how
A Value for Money (VFM) approach
effectively the scheme was designed and The CJRS was good value for The CJRS was devised and
was used, which followed the ‘4 Es’:
delivered. money. See Table 1. implemented at pace,
economy, efficiency, effectiveness
The social value approach reaching employers and their
An impact evaluation which covers the and equity.
showed a positive net benefit employees in need of support
impacts across all CJRS grants and It considered:
of £50 billion. and achieving very high levels
assesses the scheme’s VFM. Social value: considering the
The social benefit to cost of satisfaction amongst both
A quasi-experimental approach was scheme’s value to society (e.g.
ratio was around 4:1. businesses and individuals.
taken, applying a difference-in-difference effect on public welfare)
Exchequer value: considering
Methodology (DiD) method to create a counterfactual
direct effects on public finances Findings
around those eligible and ineligible for the
scheme.
The £70 billion spend had significant positive impacts on jobs, incomes,
businesses, and the macroeconomy. The net exchequer cost of the
scheme was also much lower than the headline cost of £70 billion, due
The CJRS final evaluation covers the impacts across the full duration of the CJRS to increased tax revenues and reduced welfare spending elsewhere.
and also assesses the scheme’s value for money (VfM), including a consideration of
deadweight and lessons learned.
The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) final evaluation July 2023
Short term: the quick
Quantitative research found 82% of users said that at Medium term: policy
implementation of CJRS
least one of their employees on furlough had returned to work before adjustments to changing
enabled the scheme to have a
the scheme closed. COVID-19 circumstances
major impact in preventing a
supported a quick economic
significant spike in recovery.
HMRC estimates the rate of error and fraud for the lifecycle of the full unemployment and business Long term: the CJRS has had
scheme (1 March 2020 to 30 September 2021) is between 3.0% and closures. a sustained benefit on the
7.8%, most likely 5.1%. In monetary terms, this corresponds to a The CJRS directly protected economy, minimising the
most likely estimate of £3.5 billion, with a range of £2.0 billion to £5.4 around 4 million jobs, economic harm caused by the
billion. From the beginning, it was expected that the CJRS would be a particularly when the impacts
Findings target for opportunistic fraud, and that some customers would make Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic
COVID-19 pandemic, with
economic output higher than it
mistakes. were at their most severe. The would have been without the
scheme also saved around scheme. This could have been
250,000 employers from 1.8% lower in 2021 if the
permanent closure. CJRS had not been in place
Table 1.Quantified CJRS value for money assessment
The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS)
final evaluation July 2023
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