The California Children Who May Miss The 2021 Federal Child Tax Credit
Summary
A September 2021 policy brief from the California Policy Lab, "The California children who may miss the 2021 federal Child Tax Credit," by Elsa Augustine, Taylor MacKay, Aparna Ramesh and Matt Unrath. Using California tax records matched with SNAP and TANF enrollment data, the brief estimates that around 650,000 children enrolled in these programs did not appear on a 2019 state tax return and are at risk of not receiving the expanded credit. It reports that 56% of at-risk children are identified as Hispanic, one-third live in households whose primary language is not English, and single adults head 84% of analyzed at-risk households. The brief describes limitations that may overstate the number at risk and compares its figure with a Treasury estimate of approximately 370,000 California children. It recommends outreach to help these households file tax returns in 2021 and 2022.
Summary drafted by a model from the document's text below and checked by script against that text before publication. It is a navigation aid, not a reading of what the document proves. Where AI is used
Full text
POLICY BRIEF SEPTEMBER 2021
The California children who may miss the 2021
federal Child Tax Credit
ELSA AUGUSTINE, TAYLOR MACKAY, APARNA RAMESH, AND MATT UNRATH
SUMMARY
The newly expanded federal Child Tax Credit (CTC) will provide a significant financial boost for families
throughout the US. While most families have already received advanced payments of the new CTC, some
low-income families will likely miss out on receiving some or all of the credit because they have not filed a
tax return in either of the last two years. This brief sheds light on which Californian children and families
are at risk of not receiving the CTC. Using matched social services and state tax data, we analyze the
characteristics of over 650,000 children who we estimate are at risk of not receiving the expanded CTC.
Among at-risk families for whom we can analyze earnings and household composition, most are headed
by a single adult and have little or no wage earnings. Almost half of all children at risk of not receiving the
CTC are either part of families headed by undocumented adults or are headed by an adult who would
usually not file their own tax return because they could be claimed as a dependent. More than half of
children at risk are identified as Hispanic and one-third live in households where English is not the primary
language.
One main reason that these children may miss out on the CTC is that their families had little reason to file
taxes before the pandemic. We recommend that efforts to deliver the CTC should focus on helping these
marginalized households file tax returns and claim the partial credit in 2021, and to file returns again in
2022 to receive the full credit.
INTRODUCTION
In March 2021, as part of the American Rescue Plan Act of Instead of distributing the CTC as one lump-sum payment
2021, Congress authorized a temporary, one-year expansion upon filing a return, the first half of the new CTC is being
of the Child Tax Credit (CTC), providing up to $3,600 distributed to eligible families in the form of advanced
to most children under the age of 6 and up to $3,000 to monthly payments. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) began
most children ages 6 to 17. Families with incomes of up to distributing the first half of these payments in July 2021.
$150,000 are eligible to receive the full credit and, for the first However, to receive the other half of the CTC, families will
time, families with zero earnings also became eligible. The need to file a tax return in 2022.
expanded credit is projected to cut child poverty by 40%.
1 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
The CTC is currently being disbursed to eligible families By linking this data together, we find approximately 650,000
who filed either a 2019 or a 2020 tax return.1 But because children enrolled in one of these safety net programs did not
households with little or no income are not generally appear on a 2019 tax return. We consider these children to
required to file tax returns, there is concern that the IRS be “at risk” of not receiving the CTC. However, since we do
is unable to send automatic CTC payments to low-income not observe either federal tax filings or 2020 returns, our
families that do not file a return. Identifying which families estimate is an upper bound of the true number of at-risk
are most at risk would help ensure that the CTC reaches children in the state. Accordingly, the main focus of this
the most vulnerable California children. But which children analysis is on the types of children and families who are at
and families are at risk of not receiving these and other anti- risk. Our estimates of take-up by demographic characteristics
poverty tax credits in California was not known to tax or and household types appear stable across past years of tax
human-service agencies prior to this research partnership. data.
OUR ANALYSIS WHICH CHILDREN ARE AT RISK?
To better understand which children and families are at risk We estimate that at least three-quarters of children enrolled
of not receiving the expanded CTC, our study combines in safety-net programs (close to two million Californian
California tax records with information on participants in key children) likely received an advanced CTC payment because
safety-net programs. While many low-income families do not their households filed at least a 2019 return (Appendix Table
file tax returns, many do regularly interact with programs like 2).4 However, roughly a quarter of children (around 650,000)
the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, or do not appear on a TY 2019 return and therefore are at-risk
CalFresh in California) and Temporary Assistance for Needy of not receiving the CTC.
Families (TANF, or CalWORKs in California), administered Among children at risk of not receiving the credit:
by state or county human-service agencies. Because these
services are accessed by the most vulnerable families, these • Over half (56%) are identified as Hispanic.
agencies have contact information for some of the families at • One-third live with families whose primary language is
risk of not receiving these and other anti-poverty tax credits. not English.
This information can inform targeted outreach efforts. • Certain communities are at higher risk of not receiving
We match enrollment records from county-administered the credit, including American Indian or Alaska Native
TANF and SNAP programs2 with state tax data to identify children, children in northern or more rural counties (see
“at-risk” children and families who have low incomes and interactive map), and children in families whose primary
did not file a state tax return for the 2019 Tax Year.3 These language is not English.
children and families likely have not received CTC monthly
payments. This work relies on the same linked dataset that
the California Policy Lab (CPL) used to estimate the Stimulus
Gap, and the same methodology we used to estimate
take-up of the California Earned Income Tax Credit.
2 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
FIGURE 1: Demographics of children at risk of not receiving the CTC
Children identified as Hispanic make up the majority of children at risk. Almost one in three children at-risk live in a household
whose primary language is Spanish.
Race/ethnicity
Hispanic 56%
White 16%
Black 12%
No response/data 7%
Other 7%
Asian 2%
American Indian or Alaska Native 1%
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander 0.3%
Household’s primary language
English 67%
Spanish 30%
Other non-English language 2%
Share of all at-risk children
Notes. Sample size is 654,163. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. See Appendix Table 4 for more information on race/ethnicity and language
variables.
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20) and Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2019).
FIGURE 2: Demographic groups at highest risk of not receiving the CTC
Children identified as American Indian or Alaska Native or who speak Spanish are at highest risk of not receiving the CTC.
Race/ethnicity
American Indian or Alaska Native 34%
Black 30%
No response/data 29%
White 29%
Other 28%
Hispanic 25%
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander 25%
Asian 17%
Household’s primary language
Spanish 30%
English 25%
Overall at-risk: 26%
Other non-English language 18%
Share of children at risk within each race/ethnicity (language) group
Notes: Sample size is 654,163. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. See Appendix Table 4 for more information on race/ethnicity and language
variables.
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20) and Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2019).
3 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
THE FAMILIES AT RISK
Parents or guardians must claim the CTC on a child’s behalf. at-risk children enrolled in SNAP or TANF, we find that
Understanding more about the parents, guardians, and most of the children live in single-adult-headed
families of children who are at risk can help policymakers households with extremely low incomes. Single adults
ensure the credit is delivered to all children who qualify. See head 84% of these households (Figure 4A), 80% of whom
the appendix for how we associate children with adults who are female. Households with very low or no wage earnings6
can claim them on a return.5 are at highest risk for not receiving the credit. Two-thirds of
at-risk households have no wage earnings, and 81% have less
The characteristics of at-risk families are striking and should
than $5,000 in wage earnings (Figure 4B).
inform potential outreach strategies. Using income and
household information that was available for about half of
FIGURE 3: Children at risk of not receiving the CTC, by family type
23% live with an 26% do not appear 51% live with an adult who
adult dependent with an adult on case can claim them on a return
Notes: Sample size is 556,003.
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20) and Franchise
Tax Board data (TY 2019).
FIGURE 4A: Percent of families at-risk of not receiving the FIGURE 4B: Percent of families at-risk of not receiving the
CTC, by household type CTC, by wage earnings
Single adult filer, No wage earnings 67%
50%
1 child
$1 to <$5,000 14%
Single adult filer, $5,000 to <$10,000 4%
2+ children 34%
$10,000 to <$15,000 3%
Married filing jointly,
6% 2%
1 child $15,000 to <$20,000
$20,000 to <$25,000 2%
Married filing jointly,
9%
2+ children 8%
>$25,000
Notes: Sample size is 170,960 families. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20), Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2019).
4 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
The other half of children at-risk (49%) reside in households Some children who do not appear on a TY 2019 return will
where we do not have enough information to analyze their appear on a TY 2020 return. Even prior to the pandemic,
household income or family structure. However, the data we many families filed taxes in one year but not in another.
have about these families provide some clues as to why they During the pandemic, more non-filers may have filed a return
may have filed a return. Of the children at risk who receive to claim newly available anti-poverty tax credits during the
SNAP and TANF (Figure 3), 26% do not appear on a case pandemic. At the time of this analysis (summer 2021), TY
with an adult. Though children may appear by themselves 2020 data was not made available to CPL. We are able to
on a SNAP or TANF case for multiple reasons, a common partially account for this issue by incorporating TY 2018 data;
reason is that they are citizen children of undocumented we identify which children and families identified as at-risk
parents. These children are eligible for the CTC, but since we using only 2019 data also do not appear on a return in 2018.
cannot see their parents or guardians on their SNAP case, This way, we can identify which types of children and families
we are unable to report information about their earnings or are likely to not appear on a tax return for two straight years.
household composition. We find that demographics of non-filers are similar whether
Another 23% of children appear on a SNAP or TANF case we use one or two years of tax data. See the appendix for
with an adult who, due to their earnings, age, or disability fuller discussion of this analysis.
status, meets the profile of someone who would normally Second, we are unable to observe how many families used
be claimed as a dependent on a return (or who has been the IRS non-filer portal, which was created to help the at-
claimed as a dependent on a past return). For example, risk families described in this analysis. However, as of June
this could include a disabled adult who has children in their 2021, the IRS reported that 720,000 children nationwide
household. Since these adults typically would not file a return had received the first installment of the CTC automatically
themselves, we do not include them in our analysis of income because their parent or guardian filed a return through last
or family composition. year’s portal. Though we do not know what share of those
These findings underscore the reality that most children live in California, it is unlikely to be much more
of the families at risk of missing the CTC have a than 85,000 because California accounts for 12% of the US
family structure that differs from typical tax units population.
and may have had little reason to file a tax return Third, we cannot observe the federal tax returns from TY
together prior to the pandemic. The pandemic marked 2019 for any household who did not file a California state
a first-time expansion of eligibility for tax credits (like the tax return. We estimate that roughly 300,000 dependents
CTC and stimulus payments) to citizen children living in in California appeared on only a federal return and were
households headed by undocumented adults, as well as claimed by households under the tax-filing threshold. A
to families with little to no income. Similarly, families with smaller proportion of these 300,000 federal-only filers might
an adult who, in the past, was claimed as a dependent on appear as non-filers in our analysis, meaning that we may be
another return due to their earnings profile or disability overstating the magnitude of children at-risk.
status, may find it advantageous to file their own tax return in In June 2021, the US Department of the Treasury released an
TY 2020 and TY 2021 in order to receive the CTC. estimate of the number of children in each zip code across
the country who might be at risk of not receiving the CTC.
LIMITATIONS OF OUR ANALYSIS Treasury used a different method that identified children
reported on a 2020 health insurance plan (including public
These findings are the first to use linked tax and social-
and private plans) but that did not appear on a 2019 or 2020
services data to estimate individual-level eligibility for the
tax return.7 Their analysis estimated that approximately
newly expanded CTC. While we have confidence in our
370,000 children in California are at risk of not receiving the
estimates of the types of children and families at-risk of not
credit. Our estimates are higher than the Treasury estimates
receiving the CTC, our estimates risk overstating the number
for the reasons stated above. However, since some at-risk
of children at-risk in three ways. First, the IRS is using 2019
children were likely uninsured in 2019 and 2020, Treasury’s
and 2020 tax data to determine who will receive an advanced
estimate might understate the number of eligible children
payment of the CTC in 2021, but we use only TY 2019 data.
who are not receiving advanced CTC payments.
5 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
RECOMMENDATIONS had little reason to file taxes may file a return in TY 2021
— increasing tax- filing rates among families below the
On June 14th, the IRS re-launched its non-filer portal so that
non-filing threshold. However, for some families, tax filing
additional families can claim the stimulus payments introduced
will continue to be an obstacle to claiming these credits.
during the pandemic, including the CTC and stimulus
Policymakers should continue to address the barriers these
payments, without filing a full tax return. On August 13th, the
families face to tax filing and provide resources or simplify
US Department of Treasury announced a new partnership
the process for these families to claim the rest of the
with Code for America to launch a mobile-friendly, multi-
credit. Furthermore, the IRS should ensure that if families
lingual portal in September 2021 called GetCTC.org. These
do not file a return in 2022, they will not be required to
portals will be vital for families who traditionally do not file
pay back the advanced credit they already received. Finding
their taxes. Going forward, CPL recommends:
ways to make it easier for typically non-filing populations
1. States should play a key role in connecting to claim the rest of the CTC could help ensure all eligible
families to credits. The California Department of Social families receive the credit and lift millions of children out of
Services (CDSS) is using this research to inform outreach poverty.
to at-risk families and encourage them to use these
non-filer tools to file a return and claim their stimulus
payments. California is planning a multi-lingual and multi-
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
modal outreach effort that will include recorded voice We are very grateful to our ongoing partnership with the
messages, text messages, and emails directing families California Department of Social Services and the California
to mobile-friendly tax filing solutions. Other higher- Franchise Tax Board, the staff at each organization who
touch interventions, such as hotline support, remote tax helped with this research, and for their commitment to
preparation services, and navigator outreach, could help informing policy through rigorous research. Thank you to
these families successfully submit a return through the those at the California Policy Lab, including Sean Coffey,
portal. We recommend that human-service agencies in Charles Davis, Brett Fischer, John Iselin, Karla Palos
other states also conduct outreach to families with children Castellanos, and Evan White for their contributions to this
enrolled in these programs, especially those with earnings report. We are also grateful to Hilary Hoynes and Elaine
below the filing threshold, and make them aware of the Maag for their thoughtful feedback. All errors should be
non-filer tool. State agencies should also collaborate, where attributed to the authors.
possible, to codify inter-agency authority and data-sharing The findings reported herein were performed with the
agreements to establish a framework for future tax-filing permission of the California Department of Social Services
outreach efforts. and the California Franchise Tax Board. The opinions and
2. The IRS should enable states to identify and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the authors
contact families about the non-filer portal. The and should not be considered as representing the policy of
IRS could allow, through a secure portal, state human the collaborating department, agency, or any department or
services agencies to verify whether their program enrollees agency of the California government.
were issued a payment without necessitating the exchange Support for this research was generously provided by the
of data between parties and avoiding the exchange of Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and by the Robert Wood
federal or state data. This measure would allow states to Johnson Foundation’s Policies for Action program.
focus resources on those who need the most assistance. The findings and conclusions contained within are those
3. The IRS should explore ways of making it easier of the authors and do not necessarily reflect positions or
for non-filers to claim the rest of their credit in policies of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation or of the
2022, without penalizing them if they fail to claim Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. We would also like
the rest of the credit. Families that receive the credit to thank other supporters of the California Policy Lab,
this year will receive half of their payments in advanced including Arnold Ventures, the University of California
installments upon filing a TY 2020 return. However, to Office of the President Multicampus Research Programs
claim the other half of the credit, families will have to and Initiatives, MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278, The James
file a TY 2021 return (in calendar year 2022). Given the Irvine Foundation, and the Bylo Chacon Foundation for their
expansion of the credit, families who have traditionally generous support.
6 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
APPENDIX half the calendar year can be claimed by that adult for the
purposes of the CTC.
Methodology
Our sample includes enrollment data across all safety-net
The California Policy Lab matched individual-level monthly programs administered by CDSS. CDSS’s two largest safety-
enrollment records from January 2019 through June 2020 net programs are CalFresh (SNAP) and CalWORKs (TANF).
for all safety-net programs administered by the California Other safety-net programs under the oversight of the CDSS
Department of Social Services (CDSS) to TY 2019 state include Supplemental Security Income/State Supplementary
tax returns filed with the California Franchise Tax Board Payment (SSI/SSP), the In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)
by August 2020. From this merged dataset, we identify all Program, Adoption Assistance Program (AAP)/Aid Adoption
children in the CDSS records who do not appear on a state of Children (AAC), Approved Relative Caregiver (ARC)
tax return. program, Cash Assistance Program for Immigrants-Qualified
(CAPI-Qualified) Aliens, Entrant Cash Assistance (ECA),
Matching CDSS and FTB data
Foster Care, Former Foster, KinGAP Cash Assistance, and
To link anonymized, individual-level data from both Refugee Cash Assistance (RCA), and the Trafficking and
departments, CPL developed a process to encrypt personally Crime Victims Assistance Program (TCVAP).
identifiable information using a cryptographic hashing
We exclude any child or case who has a missing county code
technique before CDSS and FTB transferred data to CPL.
and whose most recent zip code on record is outside the
Once each department hashed its data, CPL went through
state of California in case their parents or guardians filed a
a series of exact and probabilistic matches to link tax data
return in another state, which we cannot observe.
to safety-net data. We identify both exact and near matches
on unique identifiers such as Social Security number (SSN), Family-level estimates
first name, last name, and date of birth. This process involved
To understand the characteristics of the adults and
nine rounds which matched records on various permutations
households with children at risk of not receiving the credit,
of exact and probabilistic matching. These rounds allow for
we simulate tax-filing units (groups of family members who
potential transcription errors and typos that might happen
can file taxes together) among non-filers. Constructing likely
when Californians fill out a tax form or an application for a
tax units from these data is not straightforward. SNAP and
safety net benefit (e.g., a typo in SSN, first names are spelled
TANF households as observed in case data may not coincide
differently but match phonetically on each form while last
with tax units for many reasons. In particular, adults who can
name matches exactly).
claim a child for the CTC must live with that child for most of
Virtually all matches occur with some exact match on SSN the year, have a family relationship with the child, and cannot
and at least first name, last name, or date of birth. Appendix be claimed as an adult dependent on another return. SNAP
Table 10 summarizes each round of matching between TY cases, in contrast, contain individuals who tend to prepare
2018 and 2019 data with enrollment data from CDSS from and share meals together.
2018–20, the number of matches in each round, and the
We restrict this household-level analysis to the approximately
total number of matches between the CDSS and FTB data.
550,000 children who were enrolled in SNAP or TANF
Around 65% of Californians enrolled in CDSS programs in
at some point between 2019 and mid-2020. We limit to
our data appear on a tax return between 2018 and 2019.
children enrolled in TANF and/or SNAP because 1) we only
Child-level estimates have case-level records for these programs and 2) we need
case information to associate children with adults who might
Among the children who do not appear on a 2019 state
claim them on a return. Since program eligibility is determined
tax return, we identify children who would be eligible for
at an individual level for programs other than SNAP and
the expanded CTC. We only include children who will be
TANF, we are unable to observe or infer any characteristics
under the age of 18 by December 31, 2021. All children
about parents or guardians for children only enrolled in other
adopted prior to June 2020, and whose adoption status we
programs, so we exclude them from the analysis. We still
can observe in the CDSS data, are counted as eligible for
include these children in the child-level results.
the credit — children who reside with an adult for at least
7 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
To group individuals who share a CalFresh (SNAP) or to family structure (single versus married) and income,
CalWORKs (TANF) case into a tax-filing unit, we implement since these are the families we are reasonably confident
a series of assignment rules, leveraging the high-frequency represent a likely tax-filing unit.
enrollment data and demographic characteristics available
in our CDSS records. For a detailed discussion of our Using two-years of tax data
simulation, see the discussion starting on page 11 of our A child is eligible to receive advanced CTC payments if they
current working paper on estimating take-up of the CalEITC. appear on either a 2019 or 2020 tax return. CPL did not
We estimate earnings within these households using have access to 2020 tax returns when we conducted this
adults’ quarterly wage-earnings records from the California analysis, so we defined children as at-risk only if they did not
Employment Development Department. appear on a 2019 return. To evaluate how our results might
Even though at-risk children enrolled in SNAP or TANF change if we could include two years of tax returns, we also
can be associated with an adult who might claim them on a identified which CDSS program participants appeared on a
return, not all children actually appear on a case with such an 2018 return. We find that 28% of the children we defined
adult. Below, we discuss the three types of SNAP or TANF as at risk using 2019 data did appear on a 2018 tax return. If
cases in which we find at-risk children, and for which we can we assume that the same number of 2019 non-filers would
actually predict a likely tax unit. appear on a 2020 return, our estimate of at-risk children
falls to roughly 470,000, which is more in line with Treasury’s
1. Children who have no parent or guardian on their
estimate. Importantly, we find demographic trends in non-
case. In all cases, this is because the parent or guardian is
filing are similar regardless of whether we use one or two
ineligible to receive assistance. These are mostly parents or
years of tax data. The distribution of the children at risk by
guardians who are ineligible due to their immigration status.
age, language and race, and by families at risk by simulated
2. Children who appear on a return with a “likely filing status and earnings, are all similar whether we consider
adult dependent.” We predict whether non-filing adults 2018 and 2019 tax returns, or just 2019. The relative ranking
are likely-head filers or adult dependents using their age, of take-up rates by these demographic characteristics are
earnings, disability status, and whether they appeared as also similar whether we consider 2018 and 2019 returns,
a filer or dependent in previous tax years. For example, or just 2019. While 2020 is a unique year for tax filing, we
if a child appears in a case with only a disabled adult with conclude our analysis of the types of children and families at
no earned income, we would be concerned that the adult risk by demographic characteristics will likely be similar when
could also be claimed as a dependent on a return rather including 2020 returns. Since eligibility is not actually affected
than file a return by themselves. by 2018 filing, we only present results using 2019 tax returns.
3. Children who appear with a “likely-head filer”
on the case. These SNAP or TANF cases contain at
least one adult who is between the ages of 25 and 80
who do not meet the profile of an adult dependent, as
predicted above. As discussed above, we refer to these
adults as “likely-head filers.” Since we can actually observe
a possible filer with the child, we are more confident that
these households represent true potential tax units. Among
these households, we report descriptive statistics related
8 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
Appendix Tables
APPENDIX TABLE 1: California children eligible for the CTC, by receipt and risk of non-receipt
All eligible children in California 7,865,000 100%
Children in safety-net programs 2,505,589 32%
Children in safety-net programs receiving CTC 1,851,426 24%
Children in safety-net programs at risk of nonreceipt 654,163 8%
Source: Center for Budget and Policy Priorities; California Department of Social Services data (2019–20) and Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2019).
APPENDIX TABLE 2: California children enrolled in safety-net programs, by receipt and risk of non-receipt by age
$ AMOUNT
% OF OF ESTIMATED
AT RISK CHILDREN % OF ADVANCE
ELIGIBLE OF NOT AT RISK OF TOTAL $ AT RISK OF PAYMENTS
CHILDREN IN RECEIVING NONRECEIPT CHILDREN NOT BEING DELIVERED BY
SAFETY-NET CTC BY AGE AT RISK CLAIMED END OF 2021
Children 594,289 189,976 32 29 683,913,600 727,763,400
age 0–5
Children 1,911,300 464,187 24 71 1,392,561,000 2,170,669,500
age 6–17
All children 2,505,589 654,163 26 100 2,076,474,600 2,898,432,900
0–17
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20) and Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2019).
APPENDIX TABLE 3: California children at risk of missing CTC, by safety-net program
% IN EACH
ELIGIBLE AT RISK OF NOT PROGRAM AT % OF CHILDREN
SAFETY-NET PROGRAM CHILDREN RECEIVING CTC RISK AT RISK
CalFresh 1,370,915 289,647 21 44
CalWORKs 50,263 16,484 33 3
CalFresh and CalWORKs 885,475 249,872 28 38
Neither CalFresh nor CalWORKs 198,936 98,160 49 15
Total 2,505,589 654,163 26 100
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20) and Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2019).
9 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
APPENDIX TABLE 4: California children at risk of missing CTC, by race/ethnicity
ELIGIBLE AT RISK OF NOT % IN EACH RACE/ % OF CHILDREN
RACE/ETHNICITY CHILDREN RECEIVING CTC ETHNICITY AT RISK
American Indian or Alaska Native* 9,887 3,411 34 <1
Asian** 90,252 15,054 17 2
Black 263,042 77,731 30 12
Hispanic 1,466,460 365,146 25 56
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander** 7,250 1,823 25 <1
No response/data 159,443 46,227 29 7
Other 154,354 43,079 28 7
White 354,901 101,692 29 16
Total 2,505,589 654,163 26 100
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20) and Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2019).
Notes: Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Race/ethnicity variable from Medi-Cal Eligibility Data System (MEDS). The variable combines concepts of race and ethnicity. It is also a combination of self-reporting
and social-worker visual identification (applicants are asked to provide their self-identified race/ethnicity, but if they do not mark anything the eligibility worker will
enter a value based on their own visual assessment). Because of this mix in reporting, we say that individuals are “identified as” a particular group in the data. In
2020, CDSS discontinued this policy, only permitting self-identification of race and ethnicity. The demographic distribution of race/ethnicity in the CDSS data is
comparable with the distribution of California households on food stamps by race/ethnicity from the American Community Survey (2019). Table includes “Two or
more races” under “Other” due to small cell size. Those who are identified as Hispanic in the data are reported in the data as a distinct category alongside other
categories in Table 4.
* Our analysis captures individuals in safety-net programs administered by CDSS who identify as American Indian or Alaskan Native but do not live on tribal land
and/ or earn tribal income. Individuals who earn tribal income are exempt from state tax filing in California and may not appear as having received a payment
automatically in our data. However, among those earners who qualify for safety-net programs, most are also likely eligible for tribal safety-net programs — such as
the Food Distribution Program on Indian Reservations and Tribal TANF — and would not appear in the MEDS data.
** CDSS reports eight ethnicities that are grouped by the US Census into an “Asian” category (Asian Indian, Cambodian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Laotian,
and Vietnamese), and three ethnicities that are grouped by the US Census as “Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific” (Guamanian, Hawaiian, and Samoan). Due to small
cell sizes, we are unable to report each category distinctly, and use the US Census race/ethnicity categories to best capture the distinct take-up rates across all these
categories.
10 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
APPENDIX TABLE 5: California children at risk of missing CTC, by household’s primary language
ELIGIBLE AT RISK OF NOT % IN EACH % OF CHILDREN
PRIMARY LANGUAGE CHILDREN RECEIVING CTC CATEGORY AT RISK
Spanish* 669,364 199,094 30
Vietnamese* 14,693 1,571 11
Arabic* 11,058 1,746 16
Other languages 51,597 10,568 20
Total Non-English 747,037 213,151 29 33
English 1,758,552 441,012 25 67
Total 2,505,589 654,163 26 100
* Top 3 languages in the case data
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20) and Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2019).
Notes: Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
APPENDIX TABLE 6A: California children at risk of missing CTC, by family type
AT-RISK % OF AT-RISK
CHILDREN CHILDREN
All at-risk children 654,163 100
On a non-SNAP/TANF case 98,160 15
On a SNAP/TANF case 556,003
Lives with an adult who can claim them on a return 286,171 44
Lives with an adult dependent 127,671 20
No adult on case 142,161 22
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20).
Notes: Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
APPENDIX TABLE 6B: California children at risk of missing CTC, by family type: SNAP and TANF households only
AT-RISK % OF SNAP/TANF
CHILDREN ONLY
On a SNAP/TANF case 556,003 100
Lives with an adult who can claim them on a return 286,171 51
Lives with an adult dependent 127,671 23
No adult on case 142,161 26
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20).
Notes: Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
11 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
APPENDIX TABLE 7: Tax-units with at least one child at risk of not receiving the credit, by filing status
ELIGIBLE AT-RISK % IN EACH % OF TOTAL AT-RISK
FILING STATUS TAX UNITS TAX UNITS CATEGORY TAX UNITS
Head of household
1 dependent 371,419 86,301 23 50
2 dependents 203,547 36,923 18 22
3+ dependents 95,531 21,080 22 12
Married filing jointly
1 dependent 48,779 11,019 23 6
2 dependents 51,353 8,433 16 5
3+ dependents 43,922 7,204 16 4
Total 814,551 170,960 21 100
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20) and Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2019).
Notes: Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
APPENDIX TABLE 8: Tax units with at least one child at risk of not receiving the credit, by wage earnings
ELIGIBLE AT-RISK % IN EACH % OF TOTAL AT-RISK
WAGE EARNINGS TAX UNITS TAX UNITS CATEGORY TAX UNITS
No income 213,093 114,039 54 67
$1–$5,000 87,263 23,733 27 14
$5,000–$10,000 73,503 7,646 10 4
$10,000–$15,000 75,549 5,092 7 3
$15,000–$20,000 72,493 3,889 5 2
$20,000–$25,000 70,361 3,277 5 2
>$25,000 222,289 13,284 6 8
Total 814,551 170,960 21 100
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20), Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2019), and Employment Development Department (2019).
APPENDIX TABLE 9: Tax filing over multiple years
NUMBER OF
FILING STATUS CHILDREN % OF TOTAL
At-risk children who appear on TY 2018 return 180,067 28
At-risk children who do not appear on a TY 2018 tax return 474,096 72
Total eligible children 654,163 100
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20) and Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2018 and 2019).
12 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
APPENDIX TABLE 10: Match rate between tax and safety net data by round
ROUND OF MATCHING NUMBER OF MATCHES % OF ALL MATCHES
Perfect match on SSN, FN, LN, and DOB 1,660,628 28
Perfect match on SSN + 2/3: FN, LN, or DOB 830,677 14
Perfect match on FN, LN, DOB + fuzzy match on SSN 3,488 <1
Perfect match on SSN + perfect match on FN, LN, or DOB 3,426,514 58
Perfect match on FN, LN, or DOB. Fuzzy match on SSN and DOB 1,026 <1
Perfect match on LN & DOB. Fuzzy match on SSN and FN 687 <1
Perfect match on FN & DOB. Fuzzy match on SSN and LN 452 <1
Perfect match on FN, LN, and DOB 32,992 <1
Total number of CDSS enrollees that: NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS % OF TOTAL
Appear on a TY 2018 or TY 2019 state return 5,956,464 65
Do not appear on a TY 2018 or TY 2019 state return 3,196,092 35
Total CDSS observations 9,152,556 100.00
Source: California Department of Social Services data (2019–20) and Franchise Tax Board data (TY 2018 and 2019).
Notes: SSN = Social Security Number, FN = First Name, LN = Last Name, DOB = Date of Birth. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
The California Policy Lab builds better lives through data-driven policy. We are an independent, nonpartisan research institute at the
University of California with sites at the Berkeley and Los Angeles campuses.
This research publication reflects the views of the authors and not necessarily the views of our funders, our staff, our advisory board,
the California Department of Social Services, the Franchise Tax Board, or the Regents of the University of California.
Endnotes
1 Households that used the IRS non-filer portal to claim an Economic Impact Payment (stimulus payment) are considered to have filed a TY 2020 return.
2 Aggregated by the oversight agency, the California Department of Social Services. All data was de-identified by CDSS and FTB prior to analysis.
3 TY 2019 was the most recent year of data made available for analysis by CPL.
4 Our data represent roughly a third of the 7.9 million children estimated to be eligible for the expanded CTC in California. These children likely represent a large
proportion of the children at risk of not receiving the CTC because many reside in households below the filing threshold.
5 We limit our analysis of families at risk to children who appear in SNAP or TANF assistance units (also known as cases). This analysis covers 85% of the children
at risk. We restrict our analysis to these families because eligibility for SNAP and TANF is determined at the case level – allowing us to observe or infer some
characteristics of the adults in the household – as opposed to an individual level.
6 As observed in quarterly wage earnings data from the Employment Development Department. Note that these households may have self-employment income
that supplements their wage income, which we are not able to observe.
7 Households who used the non-filer portal to claim an Economic Impact Payment are considered to have filed a TY2020 return, so children in these households
are accounted for in this IRS analysis and are likely to receive the CTC automatically.
13 capolicylab.org THE CALIFORNIA CHILDREN WHO MAY MISS THE 2021 FEDERAL CHILD TAX CREDIT
File and source
- File
- the-california-children-who-may-miss-the-2021-federal-child-tax-credit.pdf
- Size
- 380,300 bytes
- SHA-256
- cf05435ab715d3a661f6992924ea2b8eafdf0c9788848a725522bed233d67089
- Original
- www.capolicylab.org