The Job Preservation Effects of Paycheck Protection Program Loans (Faulkender, Jackman, Miran; SSRN)

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SSRN page for the working paper The Job Preservation Effects of Paycheck Protection Program Loans by Michael W. Faulkender of the University of Maryland, Robert Jackman, and Stephen Miran of the Manhattan Institute: 62 pages, posted 10 Mar 2021, last revised 5 Apr 2023. The abstract says the PPP supported over 60 million jobs through August 2020 and asks how many would otherwise have been lost. Using county-level weekly unemployment insurance data, the authors estimate that a 10 percentage point increase in PPP payroll coverage at sub-100 employee businesses suppressed initial UI claims by 1.0 percentage points and the insured unemployment rate by 2.4 percentage points. They estimate that PPP loans saved 10.5 million jobs at sub-100 employee businesses and 13.8 million overall.

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The Job Preservation Effects of Paycheck Protection Program Loans

62 Pages

Posted: 10 Mar 2021

Last revised: 5 Apr 2023

See all articles by Michael W. Faulkender
Michael W. Faulkender

University of Maryland - Robert H. Smith School of Business

Robert Jackman

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Stephen Miran

Manhattan Institute

Date Written: February 15, 2023

Abstract

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) supported over 60 million jobs through August 2020.
How many of those jobs would have otherwise been lost? We estimate the number of jobs saved
by leveraging the relationship between local banking markets and the average speed to loan
approval. With county-level weekly unemployment insurance (UI) data, we estimate that a 10
percentage point increase in PPP payroll coverage at sub-100 employee businesses led to a 1.0
percentage points suppression of initial UI claims. That same increase suppressed the insured
unemployment rate (IUR) by 2.4 percentage points. In aggregate, we estimate that PPP loans
saved 10.5 million jobs at sub-100 employee businesses and 13.8 million overall.

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