Social Distancing During Pandemics (GAO-20-545SP)

Summary

A GAO Science & Tech Spotlight, GAO-20-545SP, dated May 2020, on social distancing during pandemics, from GAO's Science, Technology Assessment, and Analytics team. It defines social distancing, also known as physical distancing, as maintaining physical distance from others and avoiding large gatherings to reduce the rate of transmission of infectious diseases. It explains that limiting person-to-person transmission can flatten the curve by reducing the peak number of patients to levels the health care system can better manage. It notes that the scientific research on effective social distancing practices continues to evolve.

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Science, Technology Assessment,
MAY 2020
and Analytics
WHY THIS MATTERS
Infectious diseases like COVID-19 can spread rapidly
from person to person. Social distancing saves
SCIENCE & TECH SPOTLIGHT: lives by slowing disease transmission and reducing

SOCIAL DISTANCING
the load on the health care system. The scientific
research regarding effective social distancing practices
continues to evolve.
DURING PANDEMICS

/// THE SCIENCE guidelines are often conservative, recommending minimal personal contact
except when necessary, such as within one’s own household.
What is it? Social distancing, also known as physical distancing, is the
practice of maintaining physical distance from others and avoiding large
gatherings, with the intent of reducing the rate of transmission of infectious
diseases. COVID-19 has brought social distancing practices to the
forefront worldwide as a means of controlling local spread of the disease.

How does it work? Practicing social distancing reduces the rate of new
infections by limiting person-to-person transmission. This in turn can
“flatten the curve,” by reducing the peak number of patients to levels the
health care system can better manage, ultimately saving lives (fig. 1).

Figure 2. Droplets carrying infectious material can travel different distances, depending on
factors such as size, humidity, and air currents.

Microbiological studies on a variety of respiratory viruses have shown viral
material can travel 2 meters or farther from an infected patient. Specifically
for COVID-19, one study showed that viral material can be recovered
from ventilation fans in a patient’s room. However, it was not established
Figure 1. Reducing the rate of disease transmission through interventions, including social whether the viral material could lead to disease transmission.
distancing and other measures, can alleviate the burden on medical facilities.
How mature is it? Some modeling studies of historical outbreaks suggest
The success of social distancing depends on factors such as the distance that social distancing is effective in reducing the spread of infections. For
that infectious particles can spread from a contagious person. The example, studies examining the use of social distancing during the 1918
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently recommends influenza outbreak and the 2003 SARS outbreak showed such a reduction
a 2 meter (about 6 feet) separation between people, while the World in part due to social distancing.
Health Organization (WHO) recommends 1 meter (about 3 feet).
While it is clear that maintaining separation between individuals provides
The scientific basis for these recommendations comes from studies important protection, there is no definitive statement in the literature
in fields such as fluid mechanics, epidemiology, and microbiology. For regarding effectiveness of specific distances. While a CDC guideline
example, several studies estimated the velocity and distance traveled by suggests that, historically, risk is highest within 1 meter of an infected
droplets of different sizes expelled by sneezing, coughing, and breathing. person, the studies described above suggest a buffer of over 2 meters
These studies showed that sneezing and coughing can propel droplets may further reduce risk. Still, several unknowns limit the ability to set
more than 2 meters, with sneezing possibly propelling them further, and specific guidance. For example, the risk from those droplets that travel
breathing less than 1 meter (fig. 2). long distances is unknown, as is the risk from viral material in aerosol form,
which may persist for at least 3 hours in the air. Additionally, the amount
However, these estimates of speeds and distances are not absolute of infectious material needed for COVID-19 transmission is not clear, nor
maximums. Coughing and sneezing are complex phenomena that are is the effect of duration of exposure on risk, making it unclear how long
challenging to characterize precisely. And the behavior of droplets after they two people standing 2 meters apart may safely interact. Social distancing
are expelled depends on their size, along with environmental factors such practices, such as avoiding crowds and staying home, remain important,
as humidity and air currents, making it challenging to be definitive about particularly as some infected people can shed virus before showing
how far they may travel. Partly as a result of this ambiguity, social distancing symptoms, according to WHO.

GAO-20-545SP Social Distancing During Pandemics
Science, Technology Assessment,
and Analytics

■ If implemented for long periods, social distancing may lead to
large-scale disruptions in the economy, social cohesiveness, and the
distribution of goods and services, which need to be considered in
the context of public health assessments.
■ Scientific studies to determine which distancing strategies are
effective can be challenging, expensive, and risky, in part because
some studies may test conditions that result in the spread of infection.

/// POLICY CONTEXT AND QUESTIONS
Social distancing, as a tool for public health response, raises a number of
policy issues.

■ How, when, and for how long can social distancing be broadly
Figure 3. Determining the necessary spacing for effective social distancing, such as for implemented and enforced effectively, while minimizing disruption to
riders in a subway car, can affect the extent of disease transmission. The shaded circle (top) the daily routine of the populace and the economy?
shows the number of people who could be directly infected by droplets from a sick person.

/// OPPORTUNITIES ■ How can key complementary practices such as diagnostic testing
best be used to inform the timing, location, and duration of social
Social distancing offers opportunities to mitigate infectious disease distancing?
spread. For example:
■ What research is needed to better establish the scientific basis of
■ Social distancing is readily deployable because it mainly requires disease transmission so that effective methods for social distancing
authorities to disseminate directives and instructions. It does not can be devised and promulgated, and who should conduct such
require special equipment or medication to be distributed. research?

■ It does not require special qualifications or extensive training for the /// SELECTED GAO WORK
public to do.
■ GAO. Science & Tech Spotlight: CORONAVIRUSES, GAO-20-
■ It can be particularly important when no treatment or vaccine 472SP: Mar. 3, 2020.
is available.
■ GAO. Influenza Pandemic: HHS Needs to Continue Its Actions and
■ It can be used to buy time for manufacturing and distributing Finalize Guidance for Pharmaceutical Interventions, GAO-08-671:
protective supplies. Sep. 30, 2008.

/// CHALLENGES /// SELECTED REFERENCES

■ People may be reluctant or unable to practice social distancing, as Yu, D., et al. Effects of Reactive Social Distancing on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. PLoS
One, vol. 12, no.7. (2017): e0180545.
it may be impossible for them to do, or adversely affect their daily
routine and livelihood. Certain settings, such as onboard cruise ships Xie, X., et al. How far droplets can move in indoor environments – revisiting the Wells
or military vessels, can preclude some social distancing practices. evaporation–falling curve. Indoor Air. Vol.17, no. 3. (2007): pp. 1-39.
■ There may be psychological impacts due to interruption of
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2007 Guideline for Isolation Precautions:
services such as mental health care to vulnerable populations,
Preventing Transmission of Infectious Agents in Healthcare Settings. (updated 2019).
among other impacts.

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Accountability Office.
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and provide advice on legislative proposals. This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in
the United States. The published product may be reproduced and distributed in its
Timothy M. Persons, PhD, Chief Scientist, personst@gao.gov
entirety without further permission from GAO. However, because this work may
contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder
Staff Acknowledgments: Karen Howard, PhD (Director),
may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately.
William Carrigg (Assistant Director), Hayden Huang, PhD (Analyst-in-Charge),
Cindy Korir-Morrison, PhD, Anika McMillon, and Ben Shouse.

GAO-20-545SP Social Distancing During Pandemics

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