Status of the Re-Opening of the San Francisco Economy: June 2021 — Office of the Controller
Summary
Status of the Re-Opening of the San Francisco Economy: June 2021 is a slide report from the City & County of San Francisco Office of the Controller, Office of Economic Analysis, dated June 24, 2021. It describes itself as the first of a monthly series tracking the city's economy as COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. Its highlights state that more than 45% of small businesses in the city remain closed, total employment is down 10% from its pre-pandemic level, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in May. It reports hotel occupancy at about 35%, BART ridership to downtown stations at 12% of normal in May, and rising apartment rents. Charts cover office attendance and vacancy, small business sentiment, consumer spending, airport enplanements, freeway speeds, Golden Gate Bridge traffic, convention bookings and building permits.
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Status of the Re-Opening
of the San Francisco Economy:
June 2021
CITY & COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO
Office of the Controller
Office of Economic Analysis
June 24, 2021
Introduction
2
As the COVID-19 restrictions have been lifted, the Controller’s Office has
begun tracking the pace of re-opening of the city’s economy.
This report is the first of a monthly series that will provide updates on
sectors of the economy such as office work, tourism, small business,
transportation, and real estate.
Highlights of the June Data
3
The five-county San Francisco metro area* continues to lag comparable
metro areas in office attendance.
Despite improvements in the public health situation, the rate of small
business closures has remained steady from March to early June. More
than 45% of small businesses in the city remain closed.
Employment in the San Francisco Metro Division is recovering slowly.
Total employment is still down 10% from its pre-pandemic level, and has
not yet recovered to the level reached before the second wave of COVID-
19 infections at the end of last year.
However, the unemployment rate has declined substantially, and
consistently, from over 12% at the start of the pandemic, to 5.1% in May of
this year.
There is some positive news from the hotel industry. The city’s hotel
occupancy rate has doubled since February, and average hotel rates have
risen by one-third. At about 35%, the occupancy rate remains well below
the pre-pandemic average, which was close to 80%.
* San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Marin counties.
Highlights of the June Data
4
Similarly, enplanements at San Francisco International Airport have risen
by 50% since February, but, as of April, were still only 30% pre-pandemic
levels.
According to Census surveys of small business confidence, business travel
is expected to pick up over the next six months, but future bookings at
the Moscone Center are significantly below pre-pandemic levels.
Transportation statistics illustrate the uneven nature of the recovery.
Evening freeway speeds in downtown have dropped to pre-pandemic
levels, indicating the return of traffic congestion. However, BART ridership
to downtown San Francisco stations was 12% of normal in May.
There are clear signs of recovery in apartment rents in San Francisco,
which have risen consistently since the start of the year. Rents and
building permits for new housing remain below 2019 levels, however.
List of Economic Indicators
5
1. Time Spent Outside of the Home
2. Office Attendance
3. Office Vacancy
4. Small Business Sentiment: Expected Return to Normal Conditions
5. % Change in Number of Small Business Open
6. % Change in Consumer Spending
7. Total Employment in San Francisco & San Mateo Counties
8. San Francisco Unemployment Rate
9. Hotel Occupancy Rate
9. Hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) per Night
10. Small Business Sentiment: Expected Future Business Travel
13. Convention Bookings At Moscone
14. San Francisco International Airport Enplanements
15. PM Freeway Speed
16. BART Exits at Downtown SF Stations
17. Golden Bridge Traffic
18. Average Asking Rents for Apartments
19. Building Permits
Time Spent Outside Home At Highest Level Since March 2020
6
% Change in Time Spent Outside Home,
San Francisco Residents, Through June 7
0%
-5%
% Change in Time Spent Away from Home
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
-45%
10/11/20 10/25/20 11/22/20 12/20/20
3/1/20 3/15/20 3/29/20 4/12/20 4/26/20 5/10/20 5/24/20 6/7/20 6/21/20 7/5/20 7/19/20 8/2/20 8/16/20 8/30/20 9/13/20 9/27/20 11/8/20 12/6/20 1/3/21 1/17/21 1/31/21 2/14/21 2/28/21 3/14/21 3/28/21 4/11/21 4/25/21 5/9/21 5/23/21 6/6/21
Change relative to the January 2020 index period, not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Google Mobility, Opportunity Insights, https://tracktherecovery.org
https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf
Office Re-Opening in the SF Metro Area Lags Other Areas
7
Weekly Office Attendance Across Selected Metros,
Through June 16
60%
50% Austin Metro
Los Angeles Metro
Weekly Office Attendance Rate, %
San Jose Metro
40% New York Metro
San Francisco Metro
30%
20%
10%
0%
10/14/2020 10/28/2020 11/11/2020 11/25/2020 12/23/2020
4/1/2020 4/15/2020 4/29/2020 5/13/2020 5/27/2020 6/10/2020 6/24/2020 7/8/2020 7/22/2020 8/5/2020 8/19/2020 9/2/2020 9/16/2020 9/30/2020 12/9/2020 1/6/2021 1/20/2021 2/3/2021 2/17/2021 3/3/2021 3/17/2021 3/31/2021 4/14/2021 4/28/2021 5/12/2021 5/26/2021 6/9/2021
Kastle Back to Work Barometer reflects unique authorized user entries in a market relative to its pre-COVID baseline, averaged weekly.
The San Francisco Metro Area includes San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Marin counties.
Source: Kastle Systems
Office Vacancy Rates at Historic Highs: Still Rising in Q1
8
Office Vacancy,
San Francisco, Through 2021Q1
20%
18%
Office Vacancy
16%
Pre-Pandemic Average, 2019
14%
Office Vacancy, %
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
No Significant Improvement in Small Business Re-Opening
9
Number of Small Businesses Open,
San Francisco, Through June 2
0%
-5%
-10%
% Change in Number of Small Business Open
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
-45%
-50%
-55%
-60%
10/14/20 10/28/20 11/11/20 11/25/20 12/23/20
4/1/20 4/15/20 4/29/20 5/13/20 5/27/20 6/10/20 6/24/20 7/8/20 7/22/20 8/5/20 8/19/20 9/2/20 9/16/20 9/30/20 12/9/20 1/6/21 1/20/21 2/3/21 2/17/21 3/3/21 3/17/21 3/31/21 4/14/21 4/28/21 5/12/21 5/26/21
Small business transactions from several credit card processors relative to baseline index of January 4-31, 2020.
Source: Womply, Opportunity Insights, https://tracktherecovery.org
https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf
But Local Small Business Sentiment Has Generally Improved
10
Percentage of Small Businesses That Expect Normal Conditions
to Return in More than 6 Months,
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley MSA, Through June 13
% of Businesses That Responded Yes to More Than 6 Months
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
5/16/2020 5/30/2020 6/13/2020 6/27/2020 8/22/2020 9/05/2020 9/19/2020 10/03/2020 10/19/2020 11/1/2020 11/15/2020 11/29/2020 12/13/2020 12/27/2020 01/10/2021 01/24/2021 02/07/2021 2/21/2021 3/21/2021 4/18/2021 5/16/2021 5/30/2021
5/2/2020 7/11/2020 7/25/2020 8/8/2020 3/7/2021 4/4/2021 5/2/2021 6/13/2021
Survey Week, Ending
Source: Small Business Pulse Survey, US Census Bureau. The San Francisco Metro Area includes San Francisco, Alameda, Contra
Costa, San Mateo, and Marin counties.
Despite Business Closures, Resident Spending Has Recovered
11
Consumer Spending,
San Francisco, Through May 16
10%
% Change in All Consumer Spending, 7-Day Moving Average
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
10/15/20 10/29/20 11/12/20 11/26/20 12/10/20 12/24/20
4/2/20 4/16/20 4/30/20 5/14/20 5/28/20 6/11/20 6/25/20 7/9/20 7/23/20 8/6/20 8/20/20 9/3/20 9/17/20 10/1/20 1/7/21 1/21/21 2/4/21 2/18/21 3/4/21 3/18/21 4/1/21 4/15/21 4/29/21 5/13/21
Seasonally adjusted credit/debit card spending relative to baseline spending of January 4-31, 2020.
Source: Affinity, Opportunity Insights, https://tracktherecovery.org
https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf
Total Employment in San Francisco Area Still Down 10%
12
Total Employment,
San Francisco Metro Division, Through May
1,300,000
Total Employment
1,250,000
Pre-Covid Average, 2019
1,200,000
1,150,000
1,100,000
Employment
1,050,000
1,000,000
950,000
900,000
850,000
800,000
750,000
700,000
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
Source: California Employment Development Department (EDD). The San Francisco Metro Division includes San Francisco and
San Mateo counties.
However, San Francisco Unemployment Has Dropped to 5.1%
13
Unemployment Rate,
San Francisco, Through May
14%
Unemployment Rate
12% Pre-Covid Average, 2019
10%
Unemployment Rate, %
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
Source: California Employment Development Department (EDD). The San Francisco Metro Division includes San Francisco and
San Mateo counties.
14
Occupancy (%)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
10/10/2020
Source: STR
10/17/2020
10/24/2020
10/31/2020
11/7/2020
11/14/2020
11/21/2020
11/28/2020
12/5/2020
12/12/2020
12/19/2020
12/26/2020
1/2/2021
1/9/2021
1/16/2021
1/23/2021
1/30/2021
2/6/2021
Hotel Occupancy Rate,
2/13/2021
2/20/2021
2/27/2021
3/6/2021
3/13/2021
3/20/2021
3/27/2021
4/3/2021
4/10/2021
4/17/2021
4/24/2021
TRI (Total Room Inventory) takes in to account all the hotel rooms in the city, whether open or closed.
5/1/2021
San Francisco, From October 10, 2020 to June 12, 2021
5/8/2021
5/15/2021
5/22/2021
Occupancy (TRI)
5/29/2021
6/5/2021
Pre-Covid Average, 2019
Hotel Occupancy Rate is Rising – Doubled Since February
6/12/2021
15
Average Daily Rate per Night ($)
$0 $40 $80 $120 $160 $200 $240 $280 $320 $360 $400
4/4/2020
Source: STR
4/18/2020
5/2/2020
5/16/2020
5/30/2020
6/13/2020
6/27/2020
7/11/2020
7/25/2020
8/8/2020
8/22/2020
9/5/2020
9/19/2020
10/3/2020
10/17/2020
10/31/2020
Hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) per Night,
11/14/2020
11/28/2020
12/12/2020
12/26/2020
1/9/2021
1/23/2021
2/6/2021
2/20/2021
San Francisco, Through June 12
3/6/2021
3/20/2021
4/3/2021 ADR ($)
4/17/2021
5/1/2021
5/15/2021
Pre-Covid Average, 2019
5/29/2021
6/12/2021
Average Daily Rate Has Risen by One-Third Since February
Significant Increase Since February in Business Travel Plans
16
Expected Future Business Travel,
National Survey, Through June 13
Percentage of Businesses that Responded Yes to the Survey Question
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2/21/2021 2/28/2021 3/7/2021 3/14/2021 3/21/2021 3/28/2021 4/4/2021 4/11/2021 4/18/2021 4/25/2021 5/2/2021 5/9/2021 5/16/2021 5/23/2021 5/30/2021 6/6/2021 6/13/2021
Survey Week, Ending
Source: Small Business Pulse Survey, US Census Bureau The San Francisco Metro Area includes San Francisco, Alameda, Contra
Costa, San Mateo, and Marin counties.
At Present, Little Recovery in Future Moscone Bookings
17
Convention Bookings at Moscone, Through SF Travel
450
400
350 333
Events
300
Pre-Pandemic Average, 2019
Number of Events
250
200
150
100
60 64
48
50 39
30 24 26 24 24
20 14 17
11 11 7 10 5 10
0
0
F: Future Confirmed Events
The numbers include both Moscone events and Self-Contained events that were booked through SF Travel.
Source: SF Travel
50% Growth at SFO Since February, But Well Below Normal
18
Enplanements at San Francisco International Airport,
as % of 2019, Through April
110%
100%
Total Enplanements as a % of the Same Month in 2019
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
Source: San Francisco International Airport (SFO)
19
Average Auto Speed, MPH
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
3/3/2020
3/17/2020
3/31/2020
4/14/2020
4/28/2020
5/12/2020
5/26/2020
6/9/2020
6/23/2020
7/7/2020
7/21/2020
8/4/2020
8/18/2020
9/1/2020
9/15/2020
Source: San Francisco County Transportation Authority (SFCTA)
9/29/2020
Average PM Freeway Speed,
10/13/2020
10/27/2020
11/10/2020
11/24/2020
12/8/2020
12/22/2020
1/5/2021
San Francisco, Through June 8
1/19/2021
2/2/2021
2/16/2021
3/2/2021
Pre-Covid Average Speed, 2019
3/16/2021
3/30/2021
4/13/2021
4/27/2021
PM Freeway Speed, MPH (All Segments Combined)
5/11/2021
5/25/2021
6/8/2021
Freeway Speeds Have Returned to Pre-Pandemic Levels...
...But BART Ridership, While Growing, Still 12% of Normal
20
Monthly BART Exits At Downtown SF Stations, as % of 2019,
Through May
14.0%
Weekly Average Ridership as a % of the Same Month in 2019
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
Source: BART
Golden Gate Bridge Traffic Also Remains Below Normal
21
Total Monthly Golden Gate Bridge Traffic (South-Bound),
San Francisco, Through May
2,000,000
South-Bound Traffic
1,800,000
Pre-Covid Average, 2019
1,600,000
1,400,000
Total South Bound Traffic
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
Source: Golden Gate Bridge Highway and Transportation District
Apartment Rents Recovering After Deepest Drop in the U.S.
22
Average Asking Apartment Rent,
San Francisco, Through May
0%
% Change in Average Asking Rent Since the Same Month in 2019
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
Source: ApartmentList
...But Housing Building Permits Are Below 2019 Levels
23
Number of Housing Units Permitted, 3 Month Moving Average,
San Francisco, January 2020 - April 2021
500
Number of Housing Units Permitted
Number of Housing Units Permitted, 3 Month Moving Average
450
Pre-Pandemic Average, 2019
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
Staff Contact
24
Ted Egan, Ph.D., Chief Economist
ted.egan@sfgov.org
Asim Khan, Ph.D., Senior Economist
asim.khan@sfgov.org
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