Nur’ Asyiqin Ramdhan et al., Thriving in Turbulent Times: The Dynamic Link Between Economic Condition and FinTech Business Lending Success (2024)

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Research article by Nur 'Asyiqin Ramdhan, Imbarine Bujang, Amirul Afif Muhamat and Ninuk Dewi Kesumaningrum in the ASEAN Journal on Science and Technology for Development, Vol. 41: No. 1, Article 16, 2024. It studies how FinTech peer-to-peer business lending in Malaysia was affected by the pandemic crisis, using ARDL analysis of platform interest rates, loan duration, investment size, bank lending rates, inflation and the crisis. The authors report a significant positive long-term relationship between investment size and P2P lending and no significant long-term effect of economic conditions. In the short term, loan tenure mattered for loan success and the crisis influenced investor decisions.

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ASEAN Journal on Science and Technology for Development
Volume 41
Number 1 Business Innovation for the Article 16
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Part 1

2024

Thriving in Turbulent Times: The Dynamic Link Between Economic
Condition and FinTech Business Lending Success
Nur ‘Asyiqin Ramdhan
Faculty of Business and Management Universiti Teknologi MARA- Cawangan Puncak Alam, Selangor,
Malaysia, asyiqin@uitm.edu.my

Imbarine Bujang
Faculty of Business and Management Universiti Teknologi MARA- Cawangan Sabah, Malaysia,
imbar074@uitm.edu.my

Amirul Afif Muhamat
Faculty of Business and Management Universiti Teknologi MARA- Cawangan Puncak Alam, Selangor,
Malaysia, amirulafif@uitm.edu.my

Ninuk Dewi Kesumaningrum
Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Lampung, Indonesia, ninukdewi@gmail.com

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Recommended Citation
Ramdhan, Nur ‘Asyiqin; Bujang, Imbarine; Muhamat, Amirul Afif; and Kesumaningrum, Ninuk Dewi (2024)
"Thriving in Turbulent Times: The Dynamic Link Between Economic Condition and FinTech Business
Lending Success," ASEAN Journal on Science and Technology for Development: Vol. 41: No. 1, Article 16.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.61931/2224-9028.1575
Available at: https://ajstd.ubd.edu.bn/journal/vol41/iss1/16

This Special Issue Article is brought to you for free and open access by ASEAN Journal on Science and Technology
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SPECIAL ISSUE ARTICLE

Thriving in Turbulent Times: The Dynamic Link
Between Economic Condition and FinTech Business
Lending Success

Nur‘Asyiqin Ramdhan a,*, Imbarine Bujang b, Amirul A. Muhamat a,
Ninuk D. Kesumaningrum c

a
Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Cawangan Puncak Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
b
Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Cawangan Sabah, Malaysia
c
Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Lampung, Indonesia

Abstract

This study aimed to understand how FinTech business lending was affected by the pandemic crisis, which caused
small businesses to struggle with limited access to funds. During this crisis, demand for alternative ﬁnancing, like peer-
to-peer (P2P) lending, surged. However, P2P lending faces challenges related to information imbalances, especially
during crises, when transparency and economic conditions impact investor decisions in Malaysia. We examined factors
like platform interest rates, loan duration, investment size, bank lending rates (BLR), inﬂation, and the crisis using
ARDL analysis. Our long-term analysis revealed a signiﬁcant positive relationship between investment size and P2P
lending, while economic conditions had no signiﬁcant impact. In the short term, loan tenure played a vital role in
determining loan success, and the crisis inﬂuenced investor decision-making. These ﬁndings suggest that Malaysian P2P
lending platforms remained resilient and sustainable, even during unfavorable economic conditions. This resilience
underscores the potential of P2P lending to provide a reliable source of ﬁnancing for businesses, especially in chal-
lenging times.

Keywords: FinTech, P2P lending, Economic crisis, ARDL

1. Introduction there is a rising demand for the P2P lending market
in the Asia-Paciﬁc region due to the increasing
number of startups and small to medium-sized en-
T he rise of FinTech is becoming a prominent
ﬁxture in supporting Sustainable Develop-
ment Goals (SDG) in the ﬁnancial industry, repre-
terprises (SMEs) (Technavio, 2023). The primary
challenge for SMEs during unfavorable economic
senting a new standard characterized by conditions is to ensure business continuity, which
networking, digitization, advanced technologies, heavily relies on liquidity. Most SMEs depend on
and real-time information. With the global alterna- credit resources for liquidity, and this is even more
tive ﬁnancing market expected to grow by approx- critical during ﬁnancial crises. Given that small
imately USD 176.15 billion between 2020 and 2025, businesses often struggle to access credit, the

Received 23 October 2023; revised 2 January 2024; accepted 28 February 2024.
Available online 29 May 2024

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: asyiqin@uitm.edu.my (N. Ramdhan), imbar074@uitm.edu.my (I. Bujang), amirulaﬁf@uitm.edu.my (A.A.
Muhamat), ninukdewi@gmail.com (N.D. Kesumaningrum).

https://doi.org/10.29037/2224-9028.1575
2224-9028/© 2024 The Authors. Published by Universiti Brunei Darussalam in cooperation with the ASEAN Committee on Science and Technology (COST). This is an
open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA) license.
N. Ramdhan et al. / ASEAN Journal on Science and Technology for Development 41 (2024) 110e115 111

importance of alternative ﬁnancing sources like P2P liquidity and funding (Rees & Ahmad, 2020). As a
platforms has signiﬁcantly increased during the result, ﬁnancial institutions have been adjusting
economic crisis (Oﬁr, Tzang, & Radzyner, 2022). their lending practices and prioritizing safer assets
Business lending application during turbulent times and investments. During times of crisis and eco-
has opened a gap in addressing the pervasive issues nomic uncertainty, this sort of scenario is par for the
of information asymmetry, platform collapse, and course for banks (Najaf, Subramaniam, & Atayah,
decentralized systems in P2P lending. The dynamics 2021). A positive impact on the P2P funding success
of the information provided on the platform for campaigns was reported in a recent study that ad-
credit approval in assessing the resilience of Fin- dresses a funding gap by analyzing the successful
Tech credit processes for business purposes campaigns before and during the pandemic (Gama,
throughout an entire economic and credit cycle is Emanuel-Correia, Duarte, & Augusto, 2023). Amidst
not deﬁnitively known or established. To secure the periods of economic uncertainty and market vola-
competitiveness of P2P lending platforms, a sus- tility, investors tend to proactively pursue diversiﬁ-
tainable model that informs prudent loan decisions cation strategies, diverting their capital away from
is essential. This paper seeks to achieve the goals of conventional and well-established investment al-
gaining business lending fundraised through a P2P ternatives (Milne & Parboteeah, 2016; Nemoto,
platform with the inﬂuence of economic conditions Huang, & Storey, 2019).
in mitigating information asymmetry issues for the In addition, empirical literature during an eco-
P2P lending market players. nomic downturn evidently caused banking in-
stitutions to tighten their lending criteria and open
the door to alternative ﬁnancing such as P2P lending
2. Literature review
as a source of funding (Klein, Shtudiner, & Zwilling,
The global and regional economies suffered a 2023). With the beneﬁts of technological usage,
signiﬁcant hit from the pandemic, where ﬁnancial Fintech serves as a means to augment capital
sectors are not excluded (Ramdhan, Mohammad, availability and enhance accessibility to ﬁnancing
Yousop, Ahmad, Sipon, & Abdullah, 2021). The for expanding the market share of MSMEs while
progress and trends in entrepreneurial ﬁnance from addressing issues related to loan capital, ﬁnancial
economic crisis such pandemic COVID-19 have reporting, funding, marketing, ﬁnancial trans-
lightened the reﬂection of P2P lending contribution actions, and improving ﬁnancial literacy (Hakim &
as a new ﬁnancing alternative and drivers of Sadarrudin, 2023). Online lending, proved to be
ﬁnancing options (Rao, Kumar, & Verma, 2023). signiﬁcantly more dependable, prompt, and resil-
Theoretically, previous research has categorized the ient than bank consumer ﬁnancing during the
funding difﬁculties of SMEs according to several COVID-19 crisis, proving that P2P ﬁnancing is a
main reasons. First, most SMEs have unique chal- leading predictor of bank consumer funding. While
lenges when it comes to managing their ﬁnances the momentum for FinTech in the Malaysian market
due to their size (Ang, 1992). Second, resulting from has only grown stronger during COVID-19, it is
the informational transparency depending on a projected to continue as the number of investors
company’s capacity to offer collateral improves as it and investments in FinTech platforms has climbed
ages and builds a history of success in a certain dramatically (Yee, 2021). Moreover, numerous P2P
development stage (Berger & Udell, 1998). As the lending providers, such as Funding Fundaztic and
ﬁrm’s credibility improves, it can tap into more Societies Malaysia, saw stable growth in 2020 (Kok,
external loan and equity resources. Additionally, 2021). Further evidence in Indonesia’s FinTech
loan origination practices could be restricted to business has proven to be rather robust (Sugandi,
SMEs (Abraham & Schmukler, 2017). A compre- 2021). The resilient effects of the pandemic condi-
hensive analysis that centers on the ﬁscal and tion have been supported by Fu and Mishra (2020),
commercial consequences of COVID-19, encom- who found that the COVID-19 pandemic had a big
passing both micro and macro perspectives has effect on how digital banking and FinTech were
determined that the pandemic has caused a world- used and adopted in 71 countries. The scholars
wide economic catastrophe that is expected to highlighted established incumbent banks had more
persist well beyond the conclusion of the pandemic customers using their digital products than “Big
(Goodell, 2020). Pandemic COVID-19 pandemic’s Tech” companies and new FinTech suppliers. Re-
bearing on the economy has resulted in a decrease searchers also discovered that enterprises possess-
in the ﬂexibility of banks, rendering it more chal- ing an existing digital payment framework exhibited
lenging for them to meet the loan demand and a greater capacity to allay the adverse repercussions
impeding their capability of providing the requisite of the pandemic on the economy. Consistently,
112 N. Ramdhan et al. / ASEAN Journal on Science and Technology for Development 41 (2024) 110e115

Benni (2021) examined digital ﬁnance extensively Table 1. The results of the F-bound test for cointegration relationship.
during the COVID-19 pandemic. The scholar found Computed 90% 95% 99%
that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an in- F-statistic I(0) I(1) I(0) I(1) I(0) I(1)
crease in the usage of digital transactions and 6.8283 2.538 3.560 2.946 4.065 3.870 5.171
transfer services while decreasing the dependence
Notes: Adapted from Narayan (2005).
on cash-based transactions. On the other side,
digitizing governments and public transfers can
help provide a safety net for the public. Businesses cointegration exists among the variables where the
that are impacted by a pandemic may ﬁnd it simpler computed F-stat is higher than the lower and upper
to obtain short-term loans if they can apply for them bound value. Hence, the null hypothesis rejected
digitally. Finally, Al Nawayseh (2020) conducted a implies there is an existent of long-run relationship
study to examine the factors that motivated Jorda- among the variables.
nian individuals to adopt FinTech applications as a According to Table 2, the result depicts that the
means of enhancing their resilience in response to success of P2P lending fundraising was not inﬂu-
the COVID-19 pandemic. enced by the economic condition of the crisis in the
long term, but signiﬁcantly inﬂuenced by the in-
vestment size. In the short-run (see Table 3), the
3. Data and methodology ECT (1) value reported in this study is 0.8178,
This study utilized monthly data from January suggesting a rapid adjustment to equilibrium
2017 to September 2022, a period during which the following a crisis. This shows that any deviation
Malaysian P2P industry was fully operational since from the long-term equilibrium level of successful
its inception in 2017. The dataset comprises a total of P2P lending fundraising in a given month is cor-
69 months of observations, primarily sourced from rected by approximately 81.78% in the subsequent
the Securities Commissions of Malaysia, the Central month. Hence, the analysis indicates that the esti-
Bank, and the P2P platform providers. The event of mation equation displays an inconsequential
pandemic COVID-19 (utilizing dummy variable- dummy effect, upholding the null hypothesis as EC
before COVID-19 ¼ 0, during COVID-19 ¼ 1) was is deemed insigniﬁcant.
taken due to it resembled the ﬁrst crisis experienced Diagnostic tests were utilized in Table 4. The Jar-
in Malaysia's P2P lending market since its estab- que-Bera normality test conﬁrms that the model is
lishment in 2017. Hence, ﬁtting to the restricted normal, with no errors violating normality, indi-
sample size available, the Autoregressive Distrib- cating no serial correlation issue up to three lags, as
uted Lag (ARDL) technique was utilized in the
present study. ARDL bound test model is a statis-
tical tool for assessing the long-term impact of Table 2. The results of long-run estimation coefﬁcient.
various variables while retaining crucial long-term Variables Coefﬁcient Std. Error T-stat Prob
information, as recommended by (Pesaran, Shin, &
lnPir 12.1527 12.7695 0.9517 0.3466
Smith, 2001). lnLt 0.2304 0.4815 0.4785 0.6347
lnIsz 1.3217 0.4636 2.8513 0.0067**
lnBLR 1.4181 2.8273 0.5016 0.6185
4. Findings lnInf 0.1385 0.2065 0.6706 0.5061
EC 0.9887 0.6254 1.5810 0.1212
The preliminary data has been analysed prior to
@Trend 0.1439 0.0205 7.0290 0.0000***
being inserted into the ARDL model. The time se-
Notes: (**) Signiﬁcance level at 5%, (***) Signiﬁcance level at 1%.
ries data undergo the stationarity checking implied
that all variables stationed at different levels ranging
from I(0) and I(1), then the time series data were Table 3. The results of short-run estimation coefﬁcient.
proceed into the next process which is to ﬁnd the Variables Coefﬁcient Std. Error T-stat Prob
optimum lag for the equation. Before attempting to C 0.2017 0.0868 2.3236 0.0249**
estimate the ARDL bound test, the current study D (lnPir) 9.9382 10.5268 0.9441 0.3504
determined the suitable number of lags for the D (lnLt) 0.4478 0.2074 2.1594 0.0364**
estimation model output of lag selection criteria on D (lnIsz) 0.2286 0.2418 0.9451 0.3499
D (lnBLR) 1.1597 2.3005 0.5041 0.6168
VAR estimates. Hence, specifying an appropriate
D (lnInf) 0.1132 0.1696 0.6678 0.5079
number of maximum lags for this model has D (EC) 0.8085 0.5156 1.5681 0.1242
concluded that lag 3 was used in the ARDL model. ECT (1) * 0.8178 0.1026 7.9699 0.0000***
The analysis proving for cointegration of the var- R2 ¼ 0.6110, F-stat ¼ 26.1763***, Durbin Watson ¼ 1.7624
iables resulted in Table 1. The ﬁndings exhibited Notes: (**) Signiﬁcance level at 5%, (***) Signiﬁcance level at 1%.
N. Ramdhan et al. / ASEAN Journal on Science and Technology for Development 41 (2024) 110e115 113

Table 4. The results of diagnostic tests.
Test X2 Normal X2 Serial LM(2) X2 Serial LM(3) X2 ARCH(1) X2 RAMSEY(1)
F-statistic 2.3698 2.8106 7.6024 0.0820 1.0434
Prob. 0.3058 0.2453 0.0550 0.7747 0.3027

Fig. 1. Results of the stability test on the cumulative sum (CUSUM) and CUSUM square.

suggested by AIC for optimal lags, indicates no se- lending institutions tightened their lending criteria
rial correlation problem. during the economic crisis, reducing lending activ-
Finally, the CUSUM and CUSUMQ graphs ities. This created a gap in the market, increasing the
generated in Figure 1 speciﬁcally imply the robust- demand for alternative ﬁnancing options (Rees &
ness and stability of the model coefﬁcients. Results Ahmad, 2020; Sugandi, 2021). Furthermore, the P2P
exhibited by the statistics are within the critical lending market exhibits ﬂexibility and agility in
boundaries in this ﬁgure, suggesting that the addressing information asymmetry and ﬁnancial
parameter model of the determinants is stable. instability theory. While P2P lending responses may
lag, they adapt more swiftly to changing market
5. Discussions conditions compared to traditional institutions.
Additionally, P2P lending platforms actively imple-
The ﬁndings reveal differences in the dynamics ment risk management practices and high accessi-
between the business lending success through P2P bility to assess borrower creditworthiness and
platforms with the long and short runs. Despite the mitigate default risk through their beneﬁts usage of
consistent effects of investment size and loan platforms technology and accessibility (Hakim &
tenure, the introduction of the economic condition Sadarrudin, 2023). This aligns with Najaf et al. (2021)
dummy variable suggests that the Malaysian P2P assertion that FinTech lending through P2P plat-
market remains stable and highly sensitive during forms has emerged as a viable alternative credit
unfavorable economic conditions. Remarkably, the source for borrowers during the COVID-19
volume of the business lending success did not pandemic. Finally, from the lender's perspective,
deteriorate signiﬁcantly due to the crisis, both in the there is a demand for diversiﬁcation to mitigate risk
short and long run which is in line with prior and enhance the P2P market. During economic
empirical research (Al Nawayseh, 2020; Sugandi, uncertainty, investors seek diversiﬁcation away
2021; Klein et al., 2023). Several factors contribute to from traditional investment options (Milne & Par-
the resilience of business lending in the P2P market boteeah, 2016; Nemoto et al., 2019). P2P lending of-
during the COVID-19 crisis. Firstly, business fers an attractive alternative investment avenue that
lending in P2P lending platforms serves a diverse is not directly tied to traditional ﬁnancial markets.
range of borrowers across various characteristics Consequently, investor demand for P2P lending
that lead to lending success. This diversity helps remains robust during economic crises, ensuring a
mitigate the impact of information asymmetry and stable ﬂow of funds for borrowers on the platforms.
economic crises, as different industries may exhibit
varying levels of resilience during the pandemic
6. Conclusion and recommendations
(Cumming, Martinez-Salgueiro, Reardon, & Sew-
aid, 2021; Ramdhan et al., 2021). While some sectors In conclusion, this study ﬁnds that the unfav-
may suffer, others remain relatively stable or even ourable economic condition did not accelerate the
experience growth. This diversiﬁed borrower pool successfulness of the FinTech P2P lending markets
spreads the risk across industries, providing stabil- in Malaysia, both in the short and long term. Results
ity to the P2P lending market. Secondly, traditional indicate that FinTech lending for businesses is
114 N. Ramdhan et al. / ASEAN Journal on Science and Technology for Development 41 (2024) 110e115

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