Measuring the Effect of Pandemic Lockdowns on Economic Activity Within the St. Louis Metro Area by Lowell Ricketts, Sami Cheong — SSRN

Summary

An SSRN paper by Lowell Ricketts and Sami Cheong that uses Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker data for four of the largest counties in the St. Louis MSA to measure how stay-at-home public health orders affected local economic activity. Its difference-in-differences analysis finds that small business openings and small business revenue (measured by Womply) declined by 8.5 and 15.8 percentage points during two weeks of extended stay-at-home orders (May 4-18, 2020) in St. Louis County and St. Louis City County versus St. Charles County and Jefferson County, while consumer card spending, employment and unemployment insurance initial claims were not significantly different, and the effects on openings were larger than those Chetty et al. (2020) found for state-level reopenings.

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Measuring the Effect of Pandemic Lockdowns on Economic Activity Within the St. Louis Metro Area

Abstract

This paper uses Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker data for four of the largest counties within the St. Louis MSA to better understand the effect of stay-at-home public health orders (a.k.a lockdowns) on local economic activity. A difference-in-differences analysis finds that small business openings and small business revenue (measured by Womply) declined by 8.5 and 15.8 percentage points respectively during two weeks of extended stay at home orders (May 4-18, 2020) in St. Louis County and St. Louis City County versus St. Charles County and Jefferson County. In contrast, consumer card spending, employment, and unemployment insurance initial claims were not significantly different during this time period. The effects on small business openings found for the St. Louis counties were larger than those identified by Chetty et al. (2020) of state-level reopenings across the U.S.

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