The 2020 Joint Economic Committee Democratic Response
Summary
The 2020 Joint Economic Committee Democratic Response, the Response of the Joint Economic Committee Democrats on the 2020 Economic Report of the President, dated December 18, 2020, 116th Congress, with Views of Vice Chair Donald S. Beyer, Jr. and an introductory letter. The contents list Chapter 1: President Trump's Record on the Economy, Chapter 2: The Administration's Failure to Support Recovery, and Chapter 3: Race, Class and the Coronavirus. Chapter headings include The Coronavirus Crisis, The Administration Mismanaged Aid to Small Businesses, Economic State of the Black Community and Economic State of the Hispanic Community, followed by a section titled Achieving Economic Equity.
Summary drafted by a model from the document's text below and checked by script against that text before publication. It is a navigation aid, not a reading of what the document proves. Where AI is used
Cite this document
“The 2020 Joint Economic Committee Democratic Response.”
Original at www.jec.senate.gov. Archived at Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/source-documents/jec-response-to-the-2020-erp-dem-only-normal-format-376dfb6aa3c2-efbda40a01/
, SHA-256 376dfb6aa3c21bc7d06900275dad79b8a5c187db9df10113c2e8d6791b1f6269.Full text
116th CONGRESS
2nd Session
} SENATE { REPORT
116-xxx
THE 2020 JOINT ECONOMIC
116th CONGRESS
1st Session
COMMITTEE DEMOCRATIC
RESPONSE
_______
RESPONSE
OF THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
DEMOCRATS
ON THE
2020 ECONOMIC REPORT
OF THE PRESIDENT
DECEMBER 18, 2020
CONTENTS
Views of Vice Chair Donald S. Beyer, Jr. ............................ 5
Introductory Letter ......................................................................................................................5
Chapter 1: President Trump’s Record on the Economy .... 8
The First Three Years..................................................................................................................8
President Trump inherited a strong economy ........................................................................8
The tax cuts did little to boost the economy, but increased inequality and the debt ...............9
The trade war with China harmed the U.S. economy .......................................................... 10
The promised “blue-collar boom” did not materialize......................................................... 11
President Trump’s economic record was unspectacular even before the coronavirus .......... 12
The Coronavirus Crisis.............................................................................................................. 12
President Trump ignored the advice of public health experts and economists ..................... 12
The President opposed simple and effective public health measures such as wearing masks
.......................................................................................................................................... 13
The economy suffered one of the sharpest and deepest declines in U.S. history .................. 14
President Trump pushed to reopen the economy too soon, risking a resurgence of the virus
.......................................................................................................................................... 15
The economic outlook is worse than it appears ................................................................... 15
Americans are under severe pressure .................................................................................. 17
Chapter 2: The Administration’s Failure to Support Recovery …. 19
Congress reacted swiftly and powerfully to the coronavirus crisis ...................................... 19
The Federal Reserve took extraordinary steps to protect the economy ................................ 20
The Trump Administration and Senate Republicans failed to extend needed economic
support ............................................................................................................................... 21
The President has opposed aid to state and local governments ............................................ 22
The Administration mismanaged aid to small businesses.................................................... 23
Economic recovery and the livelihoods of millions of Americans are at risk ...................... 24
Economic support should be tied to the state of the economy ............................................. 25
Additional fiscal support is needed urgently ....................................................................... 25
Chapter 3: Race, Class and the Coronavirus ...................... 26
Response to the Claim that Trump’s Policies Have Lessened Inequality .................................... 26
The Administration’s signature economic policy did not reduce economic inequality ......... 27
The Federal Reserve deserves credit for keeping rates low throughout the economic
expansion ........................................................................................................................... 27
Economic Disadvantages as a Risk Factor for COVID-19 ......................................................... 28
Poor Americans are more likely to suffer from health conditions that make them more
vulnerable to COVID-19 .................................................................................................... 28
The working poor are more likely to be exposed to the coronavirus ................................... 29
“Essential” workers — disproportionately immigrants and people of color — face greater
health risks ......................................................................................................................... 29
Jobs that were a pathway to the middle class pose increased risks ...................................... 30
Many Americans don’t have the resources to withstand an economic downturn ................. 30
Economic State of the Black Community .................................................................................. 31
Black workers have experienced higher unemployment as a result of the coronavirus
recession ............................................................................................................................ 31
Large racial disparities in household income and poverty persist ........................................ 32
The median net wealth of Black families is only one-eighth that of White families ............ 33
The Black community faces significant physical and mental health risks from COVID-19 . 35
Economic State of the Hispanic Community ............................................................................. 36
The coronavirus recession has hit Hispanic Americans particularly hard ............................ 36
Hispanics face income and wealth inequality ..................................................................... 37
Hispanics disproportionately lack access to affordable housing .......................................... 37
Hispanic households are more likely to be unbanked than White households ..................... 38
Hispanic families are less likely to have health insurance than other Americans ................. 38
Achieving Economic Equity ...................................................................................................... 39
Chapter 4: Missed Opportunities to Support Workers and Families …. 40
Paid Sick Leave ........................................................................................................................ 41
The United States is one of the only high-income countries without universal paid sick leave
.......................................................................................................................................... 41
Americans’ access to paid sick leave varies widely by industry, company size and income 42
Industries with the highest risk of exposure to the coronavirus are least likely to offer paid
sick leave ........................................................................................................................... 43
Providing paid sick leave is cost-effective for many employers .......................................... 43
The Administration undermined legislation to expand paid sick leave during the crisis ...... 44
Child Care ................................................................................................................................. 44
The pandemic has threatened the viability of child care providers ...................................... 45
Affordable child care already was in short supply .............................................................. 45
Accessible and affordable child care increases female labor force participation .................. 46
Child care provides long-term benefits to families and the economy .................................. 46
Further weakening the U.S. child care system would erode women’s economic progress ... 47
Congress passed funding for child care, but additional support stalled in the Senate ........... 47
Mental Health ........................................................................................................................... 47
Fear of the coronavirus, social isolation and acute economic pressure strain Americans’
mental health ..................................................................................................................... 48
Nearly half of young adults report having symptoms of mental illness ............................... 48
Hispanic and Black Americans report the highest rates of symptoms of mental illness ....... 49
The pandemic will have a lasting impact on Americans’ mental health .............................. 49
Conclusion ............................................................................ 51
Endnotes ............................................................................... 53
5
VIEWS OF VICE CHAIR DONALD S. BEYER, JR.
Introductory Letter
The U.S. Joint Economic Committee is required by statute to provide an annual written response
to The Economic Report of the President, an assessment of the economy and presentation of the
Administration’s economic policies by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA).
However, soon after the Report was released in February, it was made irrelevant by the worst
public health crisis in more than a century and the sharpest economic downturn since the Great
Depression. Because of these exceptional circumstances, our analysis looks both at the President’s
economic record in the years before publication of the Report and in the tragic months afterward.
Contrary to the President’s claims, we find that his economic record before the coronavirus was
unspectacular. However, his economic legacy will be defined by his failure to use the power of the
presidency to attempt to contain the coronavirus, instead fueling its spread and causing extensive
and long-lasting economic damage. Because of these catastrophic mistakes, the President’s
economic record will be one of the worst among all U.S. presidents.
We focus attention on the Trump Administration’s failure to use economic policy to mitigate the
human suffering caused by the coronavirus recession. For months he blocked efforts to extend
enhanced unemployment benefits, threatening to leave millions of American families without
income just after Christmas. He refused to provide critical aid to state and local governments,
despite compelling historical evidence that withholding it can prolong a recession. Instead, he
called for a large payroll tax cut that would have provided the biggest benefit to the highest wage
earners and delivered nothing to millions of Americans who had lost their jobs.
The pandemic has laid bare one of the greatest challenges of our time, the entrenched economic
inequality dividing Americans by race and class. The working poor, immigrants, Black Americans,
Hispanic Americans and Native Americans have been hit especially hard by the pandemic; they
are more likely to contract COVID-19 or suffer extreme economic hardship as a result of the
coronavirus recession. The President not only has failed to lessen these divisions, he has greatly
worsened them and left many Americans scarred.
6
The pandemic also has made it impossible to ignore shortcomings in U.S. policies to support
workers and families, but the President has refused even to recognize their importance. Inadequate
paid sick leave during a pandemic forces Americans to go to work sick and risk infecting others,
yet the President weakened sick leave provisions in coronavirus relief legislation.1 The closure of
child care centers and decreased supply of affordable child care during the pandemic has forced
parents, disproportionately women, to work less or drop out of the labor force, yet the President
has taken no action to help them. 2 And despite the fact that the share of Americans reporting
symptoms of depressive and/or anxiety disorder has tripled in the past year, the President has
ignored their illness and offered no plans to address it.3
Our analysis starts at the beginning of the Trump Administration, when the President inherited a
strong economy from Barack Obama, with steady GDP growth, unemployment at only 4.7 percent
and 76 consecutive months of job growth.4 The President claimed that the economy was “in a
rather dismal state” and that he had performed a historic turnaround — much as he had boasted
that he was a self-made man while inheriting more than $400 million from his father. 5
In the years before the pandemic, the President’s two most important economic policies provided
few benefits at a very high cost. The 2017 tax cuts did little to lift the economy beyond existing
trends, but increased inequality and will leave almost $2 trillion in federal debt over 10 years. 6 The
trade war with China failed to deliver the promised “blue-collar boom” and instead cost hundreds
of thousands of U.S. jobs. While the economy in the period before the pandemic remained strong,
this was not due to the President’s policies but resulted from the tailwinds of the Obama expansion
and the Federal Reserve’s far-sighted decision to hold interest rates low.7
The President casts himself and his economic record as victims of the coronavirus pandemic and
resulting recession. However, he deserves infinitely more blame for these crises than any other
American. He ignored the advice of the nation’s top economists, who said the number one priority
for the economy was to contain the coronavirus. He did exactly the opposite of what the nation’s
leading public health experts recommended — restricting testing, mocking those who wore masks
and calling on supporters to attend political rallies that became super-spreading events. These
blunders substantially worsened the economic crisis, with the effective unemployment rate
reaching almost 20 percent.8
The President’s most tragic error was his effort to save his sinking economic record by pressuring
governors to re-open their economies. 9 Public health officials warned that prematurely lifting
measures to contain the coronavirus would lead to an explosion of cases and deaths, while the
overwhelming majority of top economists said that reopening too soon “will lead to greater total
economic damage.”10 The President again ignored their advice, squandering the immense personal
and economic sacrifices Americans had made during the lockdowns.
7
In recent months, leading economic indicators have improved from abysmal to mediocre.
However, the economy is far weaker than the numbers suggest. For example, the unemployment
rate in November was 6.7 percent — two percentage points higher than when the President took
office.11 However, this does not reflect the fact that since February 5 million Americans have given
up looking for work and have left the labor force. 12 If they were counted as unemployed, the
unemployment rate would be approximately three percentage points higher. 13 Likewise, the recent
spike in third quarter GDP growth is underwhelming because it follows a historic drop in the
previous quarter — the economy remains substantially smaller than it was at the end of 2019. 14
President Trump leaves to his successor an economy that is in far worse condition than the one he
inherited. He will be the first president in the modern era to preside over a net loss in jobs, with
the economy losing approximately 3 million jobs since he was inaugurated.15 More than 700,000
Americans have filed for unemployment benefits every week since mid-March, and recent
evidence suggests that the labor market may be worsening. 16
The most ominous sign for the economy is the tragic fact that the number of new U.S. coronavirus
cases is exploding, largely a result of the President’s refusal to take responsibility for the federal
coronavirus response and reckless actions he took that accelerated the spread of the virus. The
number of U.S. deaths from COVID-19 already has exceeded the number of American lives lost
in combat during World War II, and the numbers are climbing rapidly. 17 As a result, the
coronavirus pandemic now is a greater threat to the U.S. economy than in the spring, when it drove
unemployment to the highest levels since the Great Depression.
This will be President Trump’s economic legacy.
DONALD S. BEYER, JR.
VICE CHAIR
8
CHAPTER 1: PRESIDENT TRUMP’S RECORD ON THE ECONOMY
THE FIRST THREE YEARS
President Trump inherited a strong economy
When President Trump entered office in January 2017, he benefited from an economy that had
largely recovered from the Great Recession and was growing stronger. Under President Obama,
the unemployment rate was cut more than in half, there was a record period of monthly job growth
and economic growth accelerated in his second term. These trends likely would have continued
regardless of who became president in 2017.
The unemployment rate reached 10.0 percent at its peak following the Great Recession, but then
was cut more than in half under President Obama. The unemployment rate was only 4.7 percent
when President Trump entered office, just slightly above the lowest rate immediately preceding
the Great Recession (4.4 percent).18 In fact, President Trump began his term with an unusually low
unemployment rate compared to previous administrations. Since 1953, only three presidents
entered office with lower unemployment rates: George W. Bush (4.2 percent), Richard Nixon (3.4
percent) and Dwight Eisenhower (2.9 percent).19
The economy was losing nearly 800,000 jobs per month when Barack Obama became president in
January 2009. 20 However, after passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
(ARRA), rescue of the auto industry and extraordinary measures by the Federal Reserve, job
growth recovered.21 The economy added over 15 million jobs during the final 76 months of the
9
Obama presidency — the longest streak of consecutive positive monthly job growth under any
U.S. president on record.22 Average monthly job growth totaled 220,000 nonfarm jobs per month
during President Obama’s final three years. 23
President Obama helped set the economy back on a path toward steady growth with real gross
domestic product (GDP) growth improving to an annual average of 2.4 percent during his second
term.24 This followed a decline of 2.7 percent in real GDP in 2008, the year before President
Obama entered office and a year in which three of the four quarters saw negative growth. 25
The policy responses of late 2008 and early 2009 reduced the severity and length of the financial
crisis and Great Recession. Economists Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi have found that without
these measures by the Obama Administration, Congress and the Federal Reserve, the economy
would have contracted for more than three years, more than 17 million jobs would have been lost
(twice the actual number), unemployment would have hit nearly 16 percent (rather than 10 percent)
and real GDP would have declined nearly 14 percent (rather than 4 percent).26
The tax cuts did little to boost the economy, but increased inequality and the debt
As Congress debated the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” President Trump and congressional
Republicans claimed that the tax cuts would spur business investment, create new jobs, lead to
annual GDP growth of up to 6 percent and “pay for themselves.”27 However, this single most
important part of the President’s economic agenda failed to deliver what was promised, while
saddling the country with more debt, increasing inequality and weakening the nation’s ability to
recover from a future recession.
The predicted long-term increase in business investment never materialized, undermining claims
that such investment would be a primary mechanism by which the tax cuts would increase
economic growth and job creation. Business investment actually slowed to 2.9 percent in the eight
quarters after the tax cuts went into effect after averaging 4.0 percent in the prior eight quarters.28
In 2018, real GDP growth increased slightly to 3.0 percent, before falling to 2.2 percent in 2019
— a far cry from the promised 6 percent.29 Economic growth averaged the same in the eight
quarters after the tax cuts were enacted as in the eight quarters before they went into effect (2.4
percent). Much of the growth during this period was driven by government spending rather than
by business investment or consumption.30
President Trump’s televised claim that the tax cuts would be “one of the great Christmas gifts to
middle-income people” proved to be deeply misleading.31 Analysis reveals that the tax cuts heavily
favored the very wealthy, with the top 1 percent of households — those with average incomes of
almost $2 million — projected to receive an average tax break of nearly $50,000 in 2020. This is
approximately 64 times the average tax cut of the middle 20 percent of households, who were
10
projected to receive an average tax cut of $780. The poorest 20 percent were projected to receive
an average tax cut of just $60.32
The claim that the tax cuts would “pay for themselves” also turned out not to be true. It had been
argued that the tax cuts would create such an economic boom that the increase in federal tax
revenue would more than offset the cost of the tax cuts.33 However, CBO estimated that the tax
cuts will add $1.9 trillion to the national debt, even after accounting for the boost to economic
activity. 34
The trade war with China harmed the U.S. economy
President Trump’s second most important economic policy, the trade war with China, caused
extensive American economic casualties. He claimed that the trade war would help create
American jobs.35 He also claimed that it would help American farmers, reduce the trade deficit
and that China would pay the entire cost.36 None of these claims proved to be true.
The trade war resulted in hundreds of thousands of lost U.S. jobs. A study by Moody’s Analytics
found that by September 2019 it had cost the U.S. economy nearly 300,000 jobs.37 Many firms did
move production out of China due to the tariffs, but those jobs did not return to the United States,
with firms moving them to other countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, instead. 38
Farmers have suffered as a result of the trade war. Bankruptcy filings for small- and medium-sized
farms rose by 20 percent in 2019.39 As a result, in 2020 the Administration has been forced to give
out a record $46 billion in subsidies to farmers in part to compensate for the damage caused by the
trade war.40
Americans — not the Chinese — have paid more as a result of the tariffs. 41 Economists from the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Columbia University and Princeton University demonstrated
that U.S. businesses and consumers have borne almost the entire cost of tariffs, with
“approximately 100 percent” of import taxes passed on to American buyers. 42 Another study from
researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Harvard University and the University of
Chicago came to the same conclusion. 43 Separate analysis found that the tariffs cost the average
family $460 over a year.44
Finally, the trade deficit has increased over the course of the trade war. By August 2020, the trade
deficit for goods and services had reached its highest level since 2008. 45 The economic turbulence
caused by the President’s trade war forced the Federal Reserve to take action in 2019, cutting
interest rates three times in order to stimulate the economy. 46
11
The promised “blue-collar boom” did not materialize
President Trump claimed that his policies have led to a “blue-collar boom,” saying that
manufacturing job growth has skyrocketed, thousands of new factories have sprung up and
hundreds of thousands of factory jobs have returned from overseas. 47 All of these claims are untrue,
and manufacturing fell into a slump even before the coronavirus. In 2019, manufacturing was in a
technical recession as the Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing production contracted in
three of the four quarters. Over the year, factory production shrank by 1.3 percent.48
Job growth in the manufacturing sector had slowed dramatically before the pandemic. It
accelerated somewhat in 2018, with 264,000 jobs created over the year. However, it slowed
dramatically to only 58,000 jobs created in 2019.49 The President’s policies and his trade wars with
China and other countries have taken a particular toll on the sector, as has the coronavirus. Since
February, almost 600,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost — nearly 5 percent of the pre-
pandemic manufacturing workforce.50
Few manufacturing jobs have returned to the United States under President Trump. Despite the
President’s claims that he would bring millions of jobs back, companies announced plans to
relocate just 145,000 factory jobs to the United States in the first two years of the Trump
Administration.51 Most new “manufacturing establishments” added during the Trump presidency
employ five or fewer people. Many of them are not even factories at all, as the Bureau of Labor
Statistics uses an expansive definition of a factory that includes any establishment where materials
are transformed into new products, which includes even bakeries and tailors. 52
12
President Trump’s economic record was unspectacular even before the coronavirus
Many of the economic trends established under President Obama continued under President
Trump, while others slowed. However, in many respects, President Trump’s economic record
failed to keep pace with that of his predecessor.
After President Trump entered office, the unemployment rate continued to trend downward,
declining another 1.2 percentage points and reaching 3.5 percent in February 2020. This followed
a decrease of 5.3 percentage points under President Obama. 53
President Trump has frequently claimed credit for launching “an unprecedented economic boom”
and creating millions of jobs, yet nearly a decade (a record 113 consecutive months) of job growth
ended during his presidency. 54 The majority of this record period of monthly job growth occurred
under President Obama (76 months).55 Average job growth during President Trump’s first three
years of 183,000 nonfarm jobs per month also lagged behind job growth during President Obama’s
last three years, which totaled 220,000 nonfarm jobs per month. 56
Average real GDP growth during President Trump’s first three years was 2.5 percent. This was in
line with the 2.4 percent average of President Obama’s second term. 57 The economy grew by 3
percent in 2018, which was the best year under President Trump, before dropping to 2.2 percent
growth in 2019.58
THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
President Trump’s record will be defined by his refusal to use the vast power of the U.S. presidency
to attempt to contain the coronavirus and by the actions he took that likely worsened its spread.
Researchers have found that there could have been 130,000 to 210,000 fewer American deaths by
the end of October if the federal response to the coronavirus had been faster and more effective. 59
The President’s failure to fight the coronavirus also caused deep economic damage that likely will
be felt for at least several years.
President Trump ignored the advice of public health experts and economists
The President not only ignored the advice of public health experts; he contradicted it, even telling
Americans that the coronavirus is almost entirely harmless.60 Experts said we needed more tests;
he said that “if we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases.”61 They called for widespread
use of masks; he refused to wear one for months and mocked those who did. 62 They said to follow
scientific evidence; he promoted the use of unproven, risky treatments.63 They stressed the critical
importance of social distancing; he called on supporters to attend large political rallies. 64
In March, prominent former officials from Democratic and Republican administrations, including
two former Chairs of the Federal Reserve, four former Secretaries of the Treasury and five former
13
Chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers, released a letter stating that the number one priority
for the economy was to stop the spread of the virus. 65 The President repeatedly ignored that advice
and instead presented a false choice between implementing the public health measures needed to
save lives and rescuing the economy, tweeting in March that “we cannot let the cure be worse than
the problem itself.”66
The President opposed simple and effective public health measures such as wearing masks
To combat the spread of the coronavirus, in July the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC) began recommending that all individuals wear masks in public settings. 67 Because
coronavirus spreads mostly through respiratory droplets released via breathing, talking and
coughing, masks are highly effective in decreasing its spread, with cloth masks alone blocking
over 80 percent of all droplets when worn correctly. 68 However, the President has continually
failed to enforce mask usage, dismissing suggestions for a national mask mandate even after Dr.
Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, stated that the United States needs one
to get the virus under control. 69 Instead, Trump has actively ignored calls for mask usage, holding
mask-optional, packed campaign rallies and hosting crowded White House events, one of which
likely led to the President himself contracting the virus.70
The President’s refusal to urge mask use has already caused dire human and economic
consequences. One study found that if the United States had mandated mask usage just for
employees of public-facing businesses starting April 1, 2020, the number of deaths from COVID
by June 1 could have been 40 percent lower.71 A recent study of Germany’s coronavirus response
found that mandatory mask usage reduced infections by an average of 47 percent within just 20
days of enacting the requirement, with one area seeing reductions of up to 75 percent.72 Similarly,
a report from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation found that if 95 percent of Americans
wore masks in public, over 100,000 lives could be saved by the end of February 2021. 73
Masks also could play a huge role in strengthening the economy by reducing the need for
lockdowns or easing restrictions. 74 In a study conducted by Goldman Sachs, the lockdowns that
could be avoided by a national mask mandate were found to prevent GDP losses of up to 5 percent,
an amount equivalent to $1 trillion. 75 Additionally, mask usage could provide a boost to the
economy by easing concerns individuals may have about resuming economic activity such as
shopping or eating meals outside of the home once it is safe to do so. By limiting the risks that
accompany some forms of commercial activity, masks can play a critical role in facilitating a
smoother return to more normal economic conditions. 76
14
The economy suffered one of the sharpest and deepest declines in U.S. history
In the spring of 2020, as the President refused to acknowledge the danger posed by the coronavirus
and it grew out of control, states and municipalities had no choice but to implement strict public
health measures that effectively shut down entire sectors of their economies, while many people
stopped going to stores, restaurants and other businesses for fear of exposure to the coronavirus —
causing the sharpest and one of the deepest economic declines in U.S. history. 77
In just two months, the U.S. economy lost more than 22 million jobs and by April the official
unemployment rate had skyrocketed to 14.7 percent, not counting up to 5 percent who had
accidentally been misclassified due to difficulties conducting surveys during the pandemic. 78 The
economy also experienced by far the worst contraction on record, with GDP falling 9.0 percent in
the second quarter (31.4 percent on an annualized basis).79
Workers filed over 1 million regular initial unemployment claims for 19 consecutive weeks
beginning in late March. This peaked at over 6.2 million in the week ending April 4 — almost 6.5
times the number filed during the worst week of the Great Recession. 80 Additionally, over 1 million
workers filed claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance — the newly created program for
gig workers, the self-employed and others not eligible for regular unemployment insurance —
during three different weeks in May, with a peak of over 1.3 million in the week ending May 23.81
15
President Trump pushed to reopen the economy too soon, risking a resurgence of the virus
A March 2020 survey of 80 of the nation’s leading economists found that 8 of 10 agreed that
reopening the economy too soon “will lead to greater total economic damage.” 82 Yet the President
ignored their advice and pressured governors to relax the public health measures essential to
containing the virus. “Liberate Michigan,” he tweeted in April. 83 “Will some people be affected
badly,” he asked rhetorically — “yes, but we have to get our country open and we have to get it
open soon.”84
President Trump has consistently claimed that the root cause of the economic crisis is social
distancing measures and states closing down parts of their economies.85 However, various studies
have shown that these claims are false — in most cases declines in consumer spending, the number
of open businesses and employment preceded official state shutdowns at the beginning of the
pandemic. 86 Research also suggests that people will not resume their normal consumer habits until
they are no longer afraid of becoming infected. 87 The virus itself — not public health interventions
and social distancing measures — is what is depressing the economy.
The President partially achieved his short-run objective to improve economic indicators before the
election, when the October jobs report found the unemployment rate had dropped to 6.9 percent,
not including the more than 4 million Americans who had given up looking for work since
February. 88 If these workers as well as those who were misclassified had been included, the
unemployment rate would have been much higher at 9.3 percent.89 The President’s gamble also
appeared to pay off when third quarter GDP growth hit a record high — but only because it
partially rebounded from a record low. 90 However, the dire warnings of public health experts
proved to be prescient, with total coronavirus cases in the United States surging past 16 million
and deaths past 300,000 by mid-December. 91
The economic outlook is worse than it appears
Although the economy has rebounded in some ways beginning in May, the economy is still down
millions of jobs, the unemployment rate is still elevated, a steady stream of workers continue to
file unemployment claims each week and economic growth is slower. Real GDP in the third quarter
of 2020 increased a record 7.4 percent (33.1 percent at an annualized rate). However, this was due
to the fact that GDP had suffered a record decrease in the second quarter, plummeting 9 percent
(31.4 percent at an annualized rate).92 The economy is still 3.5 percent smaller than it was at the
end of 2019 — slightly less than the 4 percent decline in GDP over the entire Great Recession —
and GDP growth is expected to slow significantly in the fourth quarter.93
In November, there were almost 10 million fewer jobs than there were in February. 94 The
unemployment rate in November dropped to 6.7 percent — far below the 14.7 percent reached in
16
April but still almost double the pre-pandemic unemployment rate of 3.5 percent in February.95
However, this does not account for the fact that since February 5 million unemployed workers had
given up looking for a job.96 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in September that if those
who had left the labor force since February were counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate
probably would be 3 percentage points higher. 97
Unemployment has become longer and more permanent. The number of long-term unemployed
workers — those who have been jobless for 27 weeks or more — has swelled to almost 4 million,
more than 3.5 times the number in February. 98 The number of permanent job losers has increased
from 2.4 million in February to 3.7 million in November, while the number of workers on
temporary layoff has trended the opposite direction.99 This reinforces the fact that much of the
continued job loss is not a temporary phenomenon, and re-employing workers will be much more
difficult moving forward than simply recalling them from temporary layoff. The longer workers
go without a job, the more damaging it is to their household’s financial situation and future
employment prospects.100
Over 19 million workers received unemployment benefits in the week ending Nov. 21.101 Over
700,000 workers have continued to file regular initial unemployment claims every week for the
past 38 consecutive weeks, with a peak of over 6.2 million in the week ending April 4. 102 Three
times the number in a “normal” economy filed for unemployment during the week ending Dec.
5.103
17
At least 288,000 workers have filed claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance — the newly
created program for independent contractors, the self-employed and others not eligible for regular
unemployment insurance — every week since mid-April, with a peak of over 1.3 million in the
week ending May 23.104 Over 8.5 million Americans received PUA benefits in the week ending
Nov. 21.105 Millions of workers also have exhausted regular state unemployment benefits and are
receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), an additional 13 weeks
of unemployment benefits beyond the normal 26 weeks provided by most states. Over 4.5 million
Americans received PEUC benefits in the week ending Nov. 21.106
Americans are under severe pressure
Millions of Americans are under severe pressure as they are struggling to afford their bills, make
their rent and mortgage payments and put enough food on the table for their families. According
to the most recent week of the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, over 82 million adults
have had difficulty paying for usual household expenses during the pandemic, and over 25 million
sometimes or often did not have enough food in the last week. 107 Another nearly 6 million adults
— one-third of the almost 17 million adults in households that are behind on rent or mortgage
payments — say they are likely to face eviction or foreclosure in the next two months. 108 Eight
million Americans have slipped into poverty since May, according to researchers at Columbia
University. 109 The share of Americans needing government assistance has skyrocketed. Nearly
one-fourth of adults report that their family has received assistance from unemployment insurance,
the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) or charitable organizations since the start
of the pandemic. 110
18
The President’s failure to acknowledge the threat of the coronavirus and his refusal to use the
power of the presidency to fight it will weigh down the U.S. economy for years to come. Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and others repeatedly have said that the economy will not fully
recover until the coronavirus is contained and Americans believe that it is safe to resume normal
economic activity. 111 In order to stimulate the weak economy, the Federal Reserve took the
extraordinary step of signaling that it will keep interest rates at near zero for three more years. 112
19
CHAPTER 2: THE ADMINISTRATION’S FAILURE TO SUPPORT RECOVERY
The failure to contain the initial coronavirus outbreak in the United States in the spring of 2020
led to a rapid and unprecedented drop in economic activity and employment. The country saw 6.2
million workers file for unemployment insurance in just one week in April, which was 6.5 times
larger than the worst week of the Great Recession and almost 30 times higher than the February
average. 113 This presented an enormous threat to millions of workers and their families, small
businesses in every community and the broader economy. Economist Jason Furman, former Chair
of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama Administration, warned in March that
“this feels much worse than 2008. Lehman Brothers was quite bad, but it was the culmination of a
sequence of things that had happened over 14 months. This hit all at once.”114
Congress and the Federal Reserve acted quickly and powerfully to address this crisis, containing
the economic fallout and protecting families. In particular, enhanced unemployment benefits,
direct payments and support for small businesses helped prevent an enormous drop in Americans’
disposable incomes and supported consumer spending. However, when that support began to run
out at the end of summer, the Administration and Senate Republicans floated widely criticized
ideas like a payroll tax cut and a so-called back-to-work bonus.115 Moreover, they have fiercely
opposed additional aid to state and local governments to prevent job losses that could significantly
slow the recovery. 116 The end result is that Americans are headed into a winter with skyrocketing
caseloads and elevated unemployment without the fiscal support needed to get them through to a
vaccine.
Congress reacted swiftly and powerfully to the coronavirus crisis
Congress acted decisively in March to respond to the public health and economic threats posed by
COVID. It passed legislation at the beginning of the month focused on public health and research
and a few weeks later passed the more comprehensive Families First Coronavirus Response Act
(FFCRA).117
FFCRA provided two weeks of job-protected paid sick leave to 87 million workers to recover from
COVID, quarantine, take care of a loved one or provide child care and an additional 10 weeks for
workers providing child care. It also provided tax credits to small- and medium-sized businesses
to cover the cost of providing that paid leave. 118 It made important changes to food assistance
programs including enacting a “Pandemic EBT” program to help low-income families with
children replace the meals they received from federally funded school meal programs before
COVID forced schools to close. One study found that Pandemic EBT lifted at least 2.7-3.9 million
children out of hunger.119 FFCRA also made important changes to unemployment insurance
20
benefits appropriate for a pandemic such as waiving requirements that unemployment insurance
(UI) recipients search for work and wait a week before receiving benefits.120
Congress passed even more far-reaching legislation, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic
Security (CARES) Act, at the end of March. Most significantly, the CARES Act supercharged the
unemployment insurance system to support workers who lost their jobs or were furloughed by
increasing weekly benefits by $600, increasing the number of weeks someone can receive regular
unemployment benefits by 13 weeks and enacting a Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program
to provide income support to workers who do not qualify for regular unemployment insurance,
such as independent contractors, workers with insufficient earnings history or workers who
exhaust their regular UI benefits in states that offer less than the normal 26 weeks of benefits.121
The CARES Act included a host of additional important provisions such as direct payments that
could total $3,400 for a family of four, a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) that delivered
forgivable loans to small businesses struggling with falling revenue, a $500 billion stabilization
fund for firms, states and cities, an Employee Retention Tax Credit to help firms keep workers on
their payroll, moratoria on evictions and foreclosures and billions in public health investments. 122
It also included a modest $150 billion in aid to state, local, territorial and tribal governments to
respond to COVID.123
The CARES Act was an enormous success at supporting Americans when the realistic
unemployment rate reached around 20 percent.124 In April, wages and salaries fell 8 percent, but
disposable income actually rose almost 13 percent — mostly because of the combination of direct
payments and enhanced unemployment benefits. 125 The collapse of the low-wage labor market in
March and April would normally have caused the poverty rate to surge, but the poverty rate
actually fell because of benefits provided by the CARES Act, according to a study by the Columbia
University Center on Poverty and Inequality. 126 Consumption fell precipitously in both March and
April — likely because the virus prevented many people from going out to eat and traveling —
but the collapse would have been even larger without the fiscal support in the CARES Act. 127
The Federal Reserve took extraordinary steps to protect the economy
The Federal Reserve’s response under Chair Jerome Powell was similarly forceful. Within a few
weeks in March, the Federal Reserve deployed all of its tools from the Great Recession by reducing
interest rates to zero, purchasing billions of dollars in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities
and reopening lending facilities for commercial paper, money markets and more.128 The Fed even
went beyond its Great Recession activities to keep credit flowing by purchasing corporate bonds
for the first time including those of firms whose debt had been downgraded from investment
grade.129 These actions supported employment and growth while preventing insolvencies from
permanently reducing the economy’s productive capacity.
21
Powell summed up his commitment to using the power of the Federal Reserve to prevent the
COVID recession from becoming a depression by saying “the Fed is strongly committed to using
our tools to do whatever we can for as long as it takes to provide some relief and some stability
now, to support the recovery when it comes, and to try to avoid longer-run damage to people’s
lives through long states of unemployment or to their businesses through unnecessary
insolvencies.”130
The Trump Administration and Senate Republicans failed to extend needed economic support
Despite its success at supporting the economy in the spring and summer, the CARES Act was
never intended to be the end of the economic response to the coronavirus. Critical support such as
the $600 in additional unemployment benefits for millions of workers expired as early as July,
while other support such as PPP and direct payments would require another round, especially given
the failure of the Trump Administration to control the virus. 131 House Democrats worked
immediately on providing additional support and passed the Heroes Act in May, which would have
extended critical support from CARES and provided additional support such as an increase in
SNAP benefits and $10,000 in student debt forgiveness. 132
Extending the $600 in additional unemployment benefits was critical from a public health,
humanitarian and economic perspective. It was intended to ensure that laid off and furloughed
workers did not have to choose between complying with public health measures and financial
devastation; in effect, it would help slow the spread of the virus. The supplement was set at $600
per week, so total unemployment benefits would replace 100 percent of wage income for the
average worker.133 Economists would normally worry that replacing all of a worker’s wages would
discourage them from finding employment, but that logic shifts in a pandemic when entire
industries are shut down and when not working may be the best choice for workers and society
since it could slow the virus’s spread. Moreover, forcing a large section of the workforce to live
on a mere fraction of their previous earnings would reduce aggregate demand. 134 The
Congressional Budget Office, for example, estimated that continuing the $600 for the remainder
of 2020 would have accelerated the recovery of GDP.135
The Administration and Senate Republicans refused to work to negotiate another package until a
few weeks before the expiration of the $600 in enhanced unemployment benefits. During that time,
the Administration continued to push ineffective proposals like a payroll tax cut, which would
provide nothing to unemployed Americans and deliver large tax cuts to wealthy Americans who
were unlikely to spend it.136 One version of the payroll tax cut would have provided a tax cut
averaging $132,350 to the top one percent (making over $643,700) compared to a tax cut of just
$650 to the bottom 20 percent (making under $24,200).137 Moreover, the aid from a payroll tax
22
cut would come out gradually throughout the year instead of immediately, blunting its
effectiveness at maintaining aggregate demand. 138
Similarly, the Administration floated a “Return-to-Work” bonus as a replacement for the $600 in
enhanced unemployment in the summer. 139 The bonus would have provided an additional incentive
for Americans to return to work at a time when most public health officials warned many normal
economic activities were not safe. The Administration’s proposal stemmed from the President’s
false claims that the pandemic was under control, claims that have become even more risible as
COVID cases and deaths have greatly increased since the summer. 140 The return to work bonus
would have forced workers to choose between financial ruin and returning to jobs that put them
and their families at risk. Moreover, it would have shifted economic support from those who need
it most — unemployed workers who generally receive insufficient unemployment benefits — to
workers with jobs. 141
Without a serious Republican effort to negotiate a deal, the $600 in additional unemployment
benefits expired at the end of July. Republicans refused to renew the $600 and resorted to several
poorly conceived ideas instead. Senate Republicans, for example, drafted a bill that would initially
reduce the supplement to just $200 and eventually limit a worker’s UI benefit to 70 percent of their
earnings. The $200 supplement would have left many workers living on a fraction of their previous
earnings despite a frozen labor market and deteriorating public health situation.142 Worse, the shift
to replacement rates was called unworkable by multiple UI policy experts. Michele Evermore of
the National Employment Law Project criticized the proposal, saying “They’re going to spend four
months programming in a benefit that expires in a month? I think it’s not a serious proposal.”143
Similarly, the Trump Administration resorted to poorly designed executive action that used
existing disaster assistance funds to supplement workers’ unemployment by $300 instead of
agreeing to extend the $600. This program not only excluded millions of low-wage workers, but
also only lasted a matter of weeks since it was capped at just $44 billion. 144 The end result was that
a critical support for the economy that buoyed millions of workers who have lost their jobs through
no fault of their own disappeared. One study found that the CARES Act’s stimulus checks and
enhanced unemployment lifted more than 18 million people out of poverty in April, but that
number fell to just 4 million in August and September after the expiration of the $600. 145
The President has opposed aid to state and local governments
Many states are facing an impending fiscal catastrophe because while they attempt to fight an
unprecedented public health crisis, most are required by law to balance their budgets. At the same
time, their tax revenues are collapsing while their Medicaid costs grow. Some will slash other
spending, pushing more of the shortfall onto municipal governments since many rely on state
government funding while facing the same collapse in revenue. Failing to provide adequate aid to
23
state and local governments would represent a failure to learn the lessons of the Great Recession,
the recovery from which was significantly slowed by budget cuts at the state and local level. It
took more than 10 years for state and local government employment to reach its pre-recession
level, making the hole for the private sector to dig out of that much deeper.146
The Families First Coronavirus Response Act passed in March had provided some modest support
to states by increasing the share of states’ Medicaid costs that are covered by the federal
government for the duration of the public health emergency, which is estimated to deliver $24
billion in aid to states in 2020.147 The CARES Act included an additional $150 billion in aid to
state, local, territorial and tribal governments, but the Trump Administration’s Treasury
Department decided to issue regulations that severely restricted what they could spend the money
on by generally not allowing them to address revenue shortfalls. 148 This was a policy choice the
Administration made that has exacerbated the budget crunch state and local governments face.
The $150 billion in aid was widely seen as insufficient at the time the CARES Act passed and
experience has borne that out: the United States has already lost a total of 1.3 million state and
local jobs since February, and several states and cities have made clear that they will enact further
cuts if aid does not come soon. 149 The need for aid should further increase as COVID cases peak
throughout the country. Without further aid, we can expect state and local job losses to
significantly slow down the pace of recovery as occurred in the recovery from the Great Recession.
Nevertheless, both Senate Republicans and the Trump Administration have been implacably
opposed to additional state and local aid.150 In fact, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell even
stated in April that, rather than providing additional aid, he “would certainly be in favor of allowing
states to use the bankruptcy route” and that “we’re not going to let [the states] take advantage of
this pandemic to solve a lot of problems that they created themselves [with] bad decisions in the
past.”151
President Trump has falsely touted his opposition to additional state and local aid as preventing a
“blue state bailout” and that “because all the states that need help — they’re run by Democrats in
every case...You look at Illinois, you look at New York, look at California, you know, those three,
there’s tremendous debt there, and many others…Florida is doing phenomenal, Texas is doing
phenomenal, the Midwest is, you know, fantastic — very little debt.”152 In reality, Texas, Florida
and Midwestern states all face significant revenue shortfalls. 153
The Administration mismanaged aid to small businesses
A critical goal of federal policy in the COVID crisis is to ensure that small businesses survive. The
large-scale collapse of small businesses as entire sectors of the economy are essentially shut down
could both slow the pace of recovery once the threat of the virus recedes as well as make it less
24
equitable. For that reason, Congress passed vigorous support for small businesses with the $670
billion Paycheck Protection Program as its centerpiece. 154 Structured as a set of low-interest rate
loans for small businesses that could be forgiven if the businesses maintain their payroll, PPP was
supposed to protect America’s small businesses.155
Yet, the Trump Administration prevented the program from living up to its full potential. The
rollout was a mess with several large banks threatening to delay the launch of their lending
programs because of insufficient guidance from the Treasury Department.156 Loans did not flow
to the regions or industries that were hardest hit. In the initial round of loans, the hardest hit
industry — hospitality, accommodation and food services — received just 9 percent of loans.157
Similarly, less than 20 percent of small businesses in New York City received a loan compared to
more than half in Nebraska despite the fact that the former’s death rate from COVID-19 was
roughly 20 times that of the latter in the spring.158
One reason for the poor targeting of the PPP loans was the reliance on financial institutions, which
steered loans to larger businesses that would make them more money in fees and favored
businesses with whom they had preexisting relationships.159 All of this harmed the program’s
ability to reach Black and Hispanic business owners — one survey found that during the initial
round of funding, just 12 percent of Black and Hispanic small-business owners reported receiving
the amount they requested from the Small Business Administration. 160
Economic recovery and the livelihoods of millions of Americans are at risk
The drag on the economy produced by the lack of a bipartisan deal on new federal legislation will
only grow over the coming months. Most importantly, 12 million unemployed workers will see
the unemployment benefits they currently receive because of the CARES Act expire by the end of
the year.161 That alone would reduce first quarter incomes by $150 billion, according to one
estimate.162 This is a true economic and humanitarian emergency — the expiration of the $600 in
additional unemployment benefits meant that millions of unemployed Americans would be forced
to live on a fraction of their previous incomes. The exhaustion and expiration of their base
unemployment benefits means that they will have nothing — how they will buy groceries or pay
for housing is unknown.
That the economy and millions of livelihoods are at risk is the result of a set of deliberate choices
by Senate Republicans and President Trump. The House of Representatives has already passed
two versions of the Heroes Act, a bill that would provide vital income support to millions of
Americans while restarting the economy. 163
Instead, Republicans have dragged their feet on additional COVID aid and then have released
proposals that provide insufficient support. They were opposed to extending the $600 in additional
25
unemployment benefits that were critical to maintaining aggregate demand and allowing
unemployed workers to make it through the pandemic without suffering a dramatic decline in their
standard of living.164 They have been unwavering in their opposition to additional aid to state and
local governments, which is necessary to prevent state and local job losses from slowing down the
recovery.165 And — most importantly — no Republican proposal until the December bipartisan
proposal would extend unemployment benefits for the millions of unemployed workers who will
exhaust their benefits or see them expire at the end of the year.
Economic support should be tied to the state of the economy
The failure of Senate Republicans and the White House to approve additional economic support
while it is very much needed underlines the need for policymakers to tie it to the state of the
economy instead of arbitrary cutoff dates. 166 Joint Economic Committee Vice Chair Don Beyer,
along with Representative Derek Kilmer, Senator Jack Reed and Senator Michael Bennet,
developed the Worker Relief and Security Act, which would have tied UI benefits to the public
health crisis and the economy. 167 This would not only have ensured that the supplemental UI
benefits did not expire in July, but would also have given workers peace of mind that their incomes
would not suddenly fall. Tying other economic support such as nutrition assistance and state and
local aid to the state of the economy would also sustain struggling families while boosting the
economy. 168 Enhancing automatic stabilizers — especially in light of the struggles Washington
has had with meeting deadlines — should be a priority of the next Administration and Congress.
Additional fiscal support is needed urgently
The economy has been buoyed by the savings workers accumulated from the extraordinary support
provided by the CARES Act in addition to the pandemic’s reduction in opportunities for spending.
The personal savings rate, for example, surged to 34 percent in May compared to 7 percent in May
of the previous year and, as of October, it remained elevated.169 Indeed, a detailed study by the JP
Morgan Chase Institute found that the $600 doubled the liquid savings of unemployed workers
between March and July, but they spent two-thirds of that savings in August alone.170 The
disappearance of this tailwind for the economy this fall has likely contributed to the slowing of the
recovery.
The end result is that the United States is entering a period of surging COVID caseloads, school
shutdowns and large-scale business closures without additional fiscal support.171 The recovery
from peak unemployment levels of around 20 percent has been faster than many observers
expected, but the policies and COVID caseloads that produced the 20 percent unemployment have
returned.172
26
CHAPTER 3: RACE, CLASS AND THE CORONAVIRUS
The Economic Report of the President credits the Trump Administration for what until February
2020 appeared to be decreasing economic inequality, with low unemployment rates and increased
wages for racial and ethnic groups that historically have suffered second-class economic status.
Black Americans, for example, who for decades had experienced unemployment rates
approximately twice as high as White Americans, saw their jobless rate fall to only 5.8 percent in
February 2020. Similarly, Hispanic Americans saw their unemployment rate fall to only 4.4
percent.173
However, these modest improvements were the result of the recovery from the Great Recession
and the record-breaking economic expansion under the Obama Administration, not the Trump
Administration’s economic policies. The Federal Reserve also played a key role, keeping interest
rates low even when overall unemployment fell below its “natural rate.”174
The Report claimed too much credit and claimed it too soon. When the coronavirus pandemic
struck the United States in the spring of 2020, unemployment skyrocketed to 14.7 percent overall,
16.8 percent for Black workers and 18.9 percent for Hispanic workers. 175 Despite the fact that
unemployment rates for all workers and for these groups have fallen in recent months, the gains
of the pre-COVID period have been rolled back.
The Trump Administration’s incompetent and often counterproductive response to the coronavirus
pandemic has led to widespread suffering concentrated among the most vulnerable the working
poor, immigrants, Black, Hispanic and Native Americans, and others — who are
disproportionately exposed to the coronavirus and also more likely to suffer economic hardship
because of it.176 The intertwined public health and economic crises have exposed underlying
structural inequities in U.S. society that were not fully overcome by the long economic expansion.
Identifying the extent to which these crises have exacerbated existing gaps in equity throughout
the American economy should provide future administrations with a guide as to where to direct
resources to prevent future crises from having the same results.
RESPONSE TO THE CLAIM THAT TRUMP’S POLICIES HAVE LESSENED INEQUALITY
The Report incorrectly gives the Trump Administration credit for the tightening labor market in
the years leading up to the coronavirus pandemic. In fact, historically low unemployment rates
before the pandemic represented a continuation of the record 6 year economic expansion under the
Obama Administration.177
27
The Report celebrates the record low unemployment rate for Black Americans in August 2019,
without acknowledging that the rate remained nearly 60 percent higher than the rate for Whites.178
It goes on to elaborate the benefits of persistently low unemployment — such as higher wage gains
for low income and less educated workers, and wage gains and lower poverty rates overall and for
Black Americans and Hispanics in particular.179 However, these also were a result of the booming
labor market and economic expansion which the Trump Administration inherited from the Obama
Administration.180
The Administration’s signature economic policy did not reduce economic inequality
The Report is particularly perverse in its crediting of the highly regressive 2017 Tax Act with
reducing income inequality and increasing employment and wages. The tax cuts implemented by
the Trump Administration were skewed toward high earners and corporations, and there is little to
no evidence that those tax breaks resulted in increased employment by the companies that
benefited from them. 181 Historical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate always declines
at a steady pace during economic recoveries and expansions, and as former Fed Chair Yellen
pointed out, expansions do not “just die of old age.”182 But, as former colleague Ben Bernanke
replied, “they get murdered” — in our current case, by the steep recession that resulted from the
Trump Administration’s failure to contain the coronavirus. 183
The Federal Reserve deserves credit for keeping rates low throughout the economic expansion
If any federal policy deserves credit for the continuing expansion between 2017 and early 2020, it
is the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) monetary policy, which cut interest rates and
sustained them at below 3 percent even with unemployment below what had previously been
28
considered its “natural rate.”184 The Federal Reserve made the important decision to not halt the
economic expansion out of fear that the economy would “run hot” and stoke inflation. The FOMC
under Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had already started cutting rates in summer of 2019, after
a brief tightening cycle which had only brought interest rates half of the way back to their normal
levels. 185
Community stakeholders also played an important role, repeatedly emphasizing the importance of
a tight labor market for disadvantaged communities during the “Fed Listens” series of public
outreach events. The willingness of the FOMC to hold off on raising rates, which has now been
formalized in their new policy framework, preserved the Obama-era expansion. The origins of this
policy rest firmly with the FOMC. White House initiatives, including the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
of 2017 (TCJA) and deregulation, did not increase job growth beyond the existing trend.186
ECONOMIC DISADVANTAGES AS A RISK FACTOR FOR
COVID-19
As of mid-December 2020, the coronavirus has caused the deaths of more than 300,000
Americans, affecting those from every region, race and socioeconomic background.187 The
economic shock caused by the pandemic resulted in a sharp rise in unemployment, with the overall
rate rising to 14.7 percent in April 2020.188 However, the virus has hit those with modest means
the hardest, particularly lower income Black, Hispanic and Native Americans, far out of proportion
to their share of the population. While it has long been understood that wealth, race and health are
closely tied, COVID-19 has focused attention on the high human cost of structural inequalities in
American society. 189
Poor Americans are more likely to suffer from health conditions that make them more vulnerable
to COVID-19
The relationship between health and socioeconomic status flows in both directions: the wealthy
effectively can buy better health through medical care, better quality food and safer living spaces,
and the healthy are better able to become wealthy through uninterrupted participation in the labor
market and lower unexpected health care costs. The poor cannot afford the health insurance and
medical services necessary to stay healthy, making them less able to escape from being poor.
As a result, Americans living near or below the poverty line are much more likely than their
wealthier counterparts to have underlying health conditions like hypertension, chronic lung
disease, diabetes, obesity and heart disease. A study by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC)
finds that nearly nine of 10 individuals hospitalized with COVID-19 suffer from such
conditions. 190
29
Black, Hispanic and Native Americans are more likely than White Americans to live in poverty.
Partly as a result, they are more likely to contract the virus, be hospitalized for it and die from it.
As of November 30, 2020, Native Americans were 1.8 times more likely than White Americans
to have contracted the virus, four times more likely to be hospitalized for it and 2.6 times more
likely to die from it. Hispanic Americans had largely similar case and hospitalization rates as
Native Americans, at 1.7 times the case rate and 4.1 times the hospitalization rate, but had a higher
mortality rate at 2.8 times the White rate. Black Americans had a similar death rate from
coronavirus to Hispanic Americans at 2.8 times the White rate, but had lower contraction and
hospitalization rates, at 1.4 and 3.7 times the White rates.191
The working poor are more likely to be exposed to the coronavirus
The working poor are more likely to be exposed to the coronavirus because they are more likely
to have jobs in parts of the service sector that put them in close contact with the public — for
example, as home health aides, grocery clerks, restaurant workers and housekeepers. These
occupations are disproportionally held by Black and Hispanic Americans. They also are far less
likely than better-paying jobs to offer paid sick leave or health insurance. 192 Almost none of them
offer the opportunity to work from home. 193
Twenty-four percent of both Black and Hispanic Americans work in service occupations,
compared to 16 percent of White and Asian Americans.194 Within the service occupations, the
largest shares of Black and Hispanic workers work in health care support, food preparation and
serving, personal care, and building and grounds cleaning and maintenance. Black workers are
particularly overrepresented in health care support compared to other service occupations, making
up 27 percent of the workers in that occupation, which includes nurses, psychiatric aides and home
health aides, though they account for 13 percent of the labor force. Hispanic workers, who
comprise 18 percent of the workforce, are overrepresented in building and grounds cleaning and
maintenance, making up 38 percent of the workers in that occupation, which includes maids,
housekeeping cleaners and grounds maintenance workers.195
“Essential” workers — disproportionately immigrants and people of color — face greater health
risks
Although the employees of industries classified as “essential” by the Department of Homeland
Security are demographically similar to the labor force as a whole, those in occupations which
cannot be done remotely — the true “frontline” workers — are disproportionately in the lowest
quintile of wage earners, people of color and/or immigrants. This holds true even after taking
account of which industries have been entirely or largely shut down. These frontline occupations
within essential industries include both heavily female occupations in industries such as retail and
health care, as well as heavily male occupations in industries such as transportation and
30
construction. 196 Non-remote workers have suffered worse respiratory health, greater perceived
fears of COVID infection and greater job losses during the pandemic. These disparities have been
most severe for non-remote workers in the poorest households.197
Immigrants disproportionately work in essential occupations. The Center for Migration Studies
found that there are 19.8 million foreign-born workers qualified as essential. Sixty-nine percent of
immigrants are in essential work categories compared to 65 percent of the native-born labor
force.198 About three-fourths of undocumented immigrants in the labor force are in sectors
classified as essential.
According to 2019 BLS data, immigrants account for a disproportionate labor share within several
industries that are primarily classified as essential. Despite accounting for just 17 percent of the
labor force, immigrants make up 23 percent of workers in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting;
28 percent of workers in construction; 19 percent of workers in manufacturing; and 21 percent of
workers in transportation and utilities, professional and business services, and leisure and
hospitality.199 This disproportionate employment in essential industries means immigrant workers
are less able to limit their exposure to COVID-19.
Jobs that were a pathway to the middle class pose increased risks
Stable public sector occupations (transit workers, public school teachers, post office staff, etc.)
that for decades have provided a reliable path to the middle class for Black and Hispanic workers
have proven to be a double-edged sword during the pandemic.200 These jobs largely cannot be
done from the safety of home; as a result, to bring home a paycheck, these middle-class workers
put themselves and their families at risk of becoming infected with coronavirus. Tragic reports
have surfaced of public transit workers, grocery store clerks and health care assistants being
exposed to the virus, contracting COVID-19 and in some cases dying because their jobs require
that they be in close contact with the public, even when it puts their health at risk. 201
Many Americans don’t have the resources to withstand an economic downturn
While sudden health changes can be challenging economic events for households across the
socioeconomic spectrum, they are devastating for poorer households. With U.S. health care costs
the highest in the world (and with worse health outcomes than countries in the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development that spend far less), paying for unexpected health care
costs can bankrupt some families. 202 In 2018, nearly 40 percent of American adults would have
found it difficult to cover an unexpected $400 expense, having to either put it on a credit card, take
out a loan, borrow from a friend or family member, or sell something.203 Workers who experience
serious health shocks and have to leave the labor force often do not receive public assistance after
31
doing so, find it difficult to reintegrate into the labor force and are therefore at increased risk of
falling into poverty.204
This creates a pernicious cycle for COVID-19 victims. The poor are at higher risk of contracting
COVID-19 or developing serious complications from it. If it forces them to leave work or pay for
an expensive unexpected medical cost, the disease can drive them deeper into economic hardship
or poverty. In this way, the coronavirus pandemic may exacerbate both economic and public health
inequality. 205
ECONOMIC STATE OF THE BLACK COMMUNITY
Despite significant economic progress over the past decades, Black Americans experience far
worse economic conditions than Whites and the population as a whole. Over the course of 2020,
longstanding and deep-seated inequities were thrown into sharp relief as a result of the COVID-
19 pandemic and the deep economic recession that followed. Evaluating the economic state of
Black America requires acknowledging that while the United States has made some progress over
the course of its history, very large disparities continue to persist. Recognizing both the progress
and the challenges is essential to ensuring that every American has a realistic chance to achieve
success and security.
Black workers have experienced higher unemployment as a result of the coronavirus recession
Black Americans historically have suffered approximately twice the unemployment rate of White
Americans, even during past economic crises. However, that ratio fell at the beginning of the
coronavirus recession in April 2020, when the Black unemployment rate reached 16.7 percent
while White unemployment peaked at 14.2 percent, bringing the Black-White unemployment ratio
down to an historic low of 1.2 to 1.206 The sharp increases in both unemployment rates were largely
the result of the effects of the pandemic and nationwide efforts to contain it.207 The Black
unemployment rate’s smaller-than-expected increase may have also been a double-edged sword at
the onset of the pandemic, given the significant health risks associated with working outside the
home during the pandemic. Black workers are overrepresented in service occupations such as food
preparation and health care support, which entail close personal contact with customers and are
less likely to have access to paid sick leave and telework options.
As stay-at-home orders were relaxed and businesses began to reopen, the unemployment rate for
White workers dropped much faster and by a greater amount than for Black workers. The Black-
White unemployment ratio today is approaching its “normal” 2:1 ratio; in November 2020 White
unemployment stood at 5.9 percent while Black unemployment remained at 10.3 percent, bringing
the ratio to 1.8 to 1.208 Black workers could see prolonged spells of unemployment as the recession,
which was originally caused by pandemic-related restrictions on economic activity, continues as a
32
result of reduced consumption. These extended periods of unemployment have characterized
Black workers’ labor market experiences in past economic downturns. 209
The pandemic-induced recession has also reversed the decade-long convergence in labor force
participation for Black and White workers. Between January 2010 and February 2020 the gap in
labor force participation fell from 3 percentage points to just 0.2 percentage points. This downward
trend reversed abruptly with the onset of social distancing and stay-at-home orders. As of
November 2020, the gap has risen to 1.2 percentage points, erasing more than a third of the gains
made over the previous 10 years of tight labor markets.210
Large racial disparities in household income and poverty persist
Rising wage inequality and stagnating wage growth in the United States over the past 40 years
have coincided with increasing racial disparities in wages and wage growth. Wages have grown
fastest for those at the top of the income distribution, including for high-earning Black workers.
However, because Black workers make up a disproportionate share of the bottom of the income
distribution, slow wage gains at the bottom have hit the Black community hardest. 211
The median annual household income for Black households in 2019 was $46,073, more than
$20,000 less than households of all races and $30,000 less than for White households, which had
a median income of $76,057. In other words, for every dollar earned by the typical White
household, the typical Black household earned only 61 cents. This is significantly worse than in
2000, when the typical Black household earned about 65 cents for every dollar earned by a White
household.
33
Black workers are more likely to work at or below the minimum wage than White workers; 2.4
percent of Black workers worked at or below the federal minimum wage of $7.25 in 2019
compared to 1.9 percent of White workers. In 2019 Black workers made up 18 percent of minimum
wage workers despite being only 13 percent of the labor force.212 Black workers would therefore
disproportionately benefit from increases in the minimum wage; 38 percent would benefit from an
increase as compared to 23 percent of White workers.213
Ironically, college-educated Black workers face a larger absolute income gap relative to White
workers than those without a college education. College educated Black workers are also at a
higher risk of being underemployed — working in occupations that do not make use of their
education and consequently pay less. Almost 40 percent of Black college graduates are
underemployed, compared to 31 percent of White graduates.214
As a result of disparities in employment and wages, Black workers are over twice as likely to live
in poverty as White Americans. The share of Black Americans living below the poverty line fell
below 20 percent for the first time since 1959 in 2019 — a long overdue milestone that will likely
be rolled back as a result of the pandemic. 215 Black Americans also face high rates of child poverty
in America, with under-18 poverty rates close to or exceeding 30 percent dating back to 1974. The
poverty rate for Black children regularly triples the rate for White children. 216
The median net wealth of Black families is only one-eighth that of White families
The median net worth of White families in 2019 was $189,100, nearly eight times the median net
worth of Black families, which was only $24,100. The median Black net worth is less than one
year’s subsistence at the federal poverty level for a family of four. Though the gap in wealth
34
between White and Black families fell in relative terms between 2016 and 2019 from almost ten
times to eight times, the absolute gap was little changed, falling just $1,370.
Racial wealth disparities are larger for more highly educated Blacks and Whites than for those
with less education. While the Black-White wealth gap was about $65,000 for those with less than
a high school education in 2019, for those with a bachelor’s degree and higher, the gap was over
$300,000. The median net worth of college-educated Black families was $72,450, compared to
$397,000 for White families. Black adults are also disproportionately burdened by student loan
debt; 20 years after starting college, the typical Black borrower still owes 95 percent of his or her
original balance, while the typical White borrower owes only six percent.217
Homeownership is the primary component of wealth for most American households. Yet, less than
half of Black families owned their homes in 2020 (46 percent), compared to three quarters of White
families (73 percent).218 This is a significant decline from the peak of Black homeownership in
2004 when 49 percent of Black households owned their homes. The collapse of the housing market
in 2008 hit Black homeowners particularly hard, with Black households over 70 percent more
likely to have faced foreclosure than non-Hispanic White households. 219 Homes in majority-Black
neighborhoods are also valued lower, even when controlling for home quality and neighborhood
amenities, and despite Black Americans paying higher mortgage interest rates overall. 220
Intergenerational wealth transfers are a determining factor in the distribution of wealth in the
United States and of the racial wealth gap in particular. 221 Throughout history, Black Americans
have been excluded from programs that allowed a White middle class to emerge and build wealth.
The wealth Blacks were able to build despite these hurdles was often destroyed through acts of
domestic terrorism (e.g., Wilmington, NC in 1898, Tulsa, OK in 1921, and countless lynchings
35
throughout the 19th and 20th centuries). 222 Institutional practices like redlining, the undervaluation
of homes in majority-Black neighborhoods and predatory lending continue to exacerbate racial
wealth disparities. The failure to fully address these inequities sustains the wealth gap from
generation to generation.223
The Black community faces significant physical and mental health risks from COVID-19
As a result of a variety of systemic factors — occupational segregation, poor working conditions,
discrimination in health care and an overabundance of preexisting health conditions, Black
Americans are contracting and dying from COVID-19 at disproportionate rates. Black Americans
make up one fifth of all coronavirus-related deaths in the United States, despite making up only
12.5 percent of the population. Black Americans’ age-adjusted mortality rate from COVID-19 is
triple that of White Americans. As of November 2020, one in 875 Black Americans has died from
COVID-19.224
People of color are more likely to experience mental illness during the pandemic partly because
they are bearing the brunt of the pandemic’s health and economic effects. For example, Blacks,
Hispanics and Native Americans are about 1.5 or more times as likely as Whites to test positive
for COVID-19 and approximately four times as likely to be hospitalized for it. In late September,
46 percent of Black Americans and 43 percent of Hispanics reported that they had difficulty paying
for usual expenses during the pandemic, compared to 25 percent of Whites.225
Racial disparities in mortality rates and the incidence of sickness and disability are partially the
result of disparities in access to the resources that protect and promote good health. The
relationship between socioeconomic status and life expectancy is well-established in the United
36
States, and a large portion of the life-expectancy gap between Black and White Americans can be
attributed to disparities in income and educational attainment. However, even when controlling for
income, education and wealth, racial disparities in health remain. These unexplained disparities
suggest that discrimination and racial bias play a role in determining poorer health outcomes for
Black Americans.
ECONOMIC STATE OF THE HISPANIC COMMUNITY
The coronavirus pandemic and recession has hit the Hispanic community hard, with Hispanics
significantly more vulnerable to contracting, requiring hospitalization and dying from COVID-19
than Whites. This is partly because of structural inequalities, including the fact that a greater share
of Hispanics hold essential jobs that put them in contact with the public. Hispanics are more than
1.5 times as likely as Whites to test positive for the coronavirus, close to three times as likely to
die as White Americans and more like to be hospitalized for COVID-19 than any other ethno-
racial group.226 Hispanic children and young adults under 24 represent over 40 percent of all the
COVID-19 deaths among Americans of their age. 227
The economic impact of the pandemic has been similarly crushing. Hispanic workers went from
record high employment to hardest hit in a matter of months, with nearly one-in-five Hispanic
women out of work at the April unemployment peak. Hispanic families face financial and food
hardship, as well as higher eviction rates than the broader population. Although these disparities
were heightened by the crisis, they have long predated it. While Hispanics have made significant
progress over the past decades, including nearly doubling their rate of college completion, there
still remain substantial obstacles to reducing economic inequality between Hispanic Americans
and the broader population.
The coronavirus recession has hit Hispanic Americans particularly hard
In addition to higher rates of exposure to and hospitalization from coronavirus, Hispanic
Americans have faced disproportionate economic insecurity during the pandemic-induced
recession. The current hardships highlight structural barriers Hispanics face in employment,
income, wealth, home ownership and health insurance.
Hispanic women and families with children have faced a meteoric rise in financial and food
hardship due to COVID-19. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), 36
percent of Hispanic children have experienced hardship during the pandemic. Among Hispanics,
food insecurity doubled from March to September 2020. More than one-in-three Hispanic
households have experienced food insecurity. 228 Nearly three in ten Hispanic renters reported
being behind on rent.229 A disproportionate share of Hispanics — particularly Hispanic women —
work in private households and informal child care settings.230 Yet Hispanics report they are less
37
likely to have anyone available to care for their children while they strive to continue to work
during school closures and hybrid schooling arrangements.231
Hispanics face income and wealth inequality
Hispanic Americans face inequalities in income, net worth, college completion, employment, food
security, health insurance, access to capital and other objective measures of economic wellbeing.
The typical Hispanic woman working full time year-round earns just 55 cents on the dollar
compared to the typical White man working full time year-round, a gap that is 24 cents wider than
that between White men and women.232
While the tight labor market during the recent economic expansion may have benefited Hispanic
workers, it has done little to solve the enduring discrepancies in wealth between Hispanic and non-
Hispanic White households. Hispanic households have much less wealth than White households.
In 2019, the median net worth of Hispanic families was only $36,100 compared to $188,200 for
White families — a difference of over $152,000.233 If measured by average net worth (comparing
a mean net worth of $165,500 for Hispanics versus $983,400 for Whites), Whites have six times
as much wealth.
Hispanics disproportionately lack access to affordable housing
Many Hispanics struggle to find and maintain a place of residence at a cost that is reasonable.
Homeownership among Hispanics lags the homeownership rate of Whites. Only about half of
Hispanics are homeowners compared to about three-in-four Whites. 234 More than half of all
Hispanics rent their homes and over half of all Hispanic renters are severely or moderately rent-
burdened — meaning that more than 30 percent of their income goes to cover rent.235 States with
38
the highest share of rent-burdened residents are the states with some of the largest Hispanic
populations, such as Florida, California and New York.236 About one-in-four Hispanic families
spend at least half of their income on housing, with most low-income families spending over half
of their income on rent.237
Ironically, while many Hispanics lack access to affordable housing and are at higher risk of
eviction and displacement than the broader population, they play an outsized role in building and
maintaining the nation’s housing supply. More than one-in-three workers in construction are
Hispanic. Five out of the seven occupations that are half or more Hispanic are in construction
(drywall installers (68 percent); carpet, floor and tile installers (60 percent); painters, construction
and maintenance (56 percent); roofers (51 percent); etc.). The other two detailed occupations that
are about half or more Hispanic are in agriculture. 238
Hispanic households are more likely to be unbanked than White households
Hispanic households (14 percent) are much more likely to not have a checking or saving account
than White households (3 percent).239 Lacking access to mainstream banking and credit often
means paying higher costs for financing. According to a study by the Pew Charitable Trusts,
Hispanics are 1.5 times as likely as Whites to use payday loans. 240 Interest on payday loans often
has an effective annual percentage rate well above industry standards for credit cards or other
consumer loans. This further lowers the capital available to Hispanic households already facing
lower levels of personal earnings and higher rates of poverty.
Hispanic families are less likely to have health insurance than other Americans
Hispanic workers, families and children have much higher uninsured rates than other Americans.
In 2019, 18.7 percent of Hispanic Americans lacked health insurance. 241 The uninsured rate among
Hispanic children was higher than children overall and increased to 9.2 percent in 2019.242 That is
more than double the rate of White children and higher than the uninsured rate of children living
in poverty (7.4 percent).243 A more recent analysis estimates that as a result of the pandemic
recession, approximately 3 million Hispanic workers — approximately 13 percent of the Hispanic
workforce — have lost employer sponsored health insurance.244 The lack of full access to health
insurance has made Hispanic Americans much more vulnerable to the spread of the coronavirus.
Detailing, understanding and reducing these inequalities is essential for improving the overall
quality of life of the second largest ethno-racial group in the United States (second only to non-
Hispanic White Americans). Recovery from this pandemic-induced recession will require an
effective public health response and more equitable and inclusive investments in both near-term
COVID-19 relief programs and long-term economic expansion.
39
ACHIEVING ECONOMIC EQUITY
America made significant progress in reducing social and economic disparities in the latter half of
the 20th century, as discriminatory policies like segregation, redlining, employment discrimination
and restricted voting rights were outlawed. The long pre-pandemic expansion, begun over a decade
ago during the Obama Administration and sustained by effective, forward-looking monetary
policy from the Federal Reserve, temporarily appeared to reduce gaps in unemployment and
increase wages for lower income workers, as if the problems of the past were soon to be solved.
Tragically, just as the Report was released it was becoming obvious that the pandemic would kill
the longest expansion in U.S. history. The economic devastation of the pandemic instantly robbed
Black, Hispanic and other disadvantaged workers of the employment gains they had made during
the expansion, in addition to the extraordinarily heavy burdens placed on those communities by
the disease itself. The outgoing Administration’s legacy will be defined by its poor handling of the
pandemic and reluctance to provide the American people with sustained economic relief. This lack
of action will have lasting negative effects on communities throughout America, particularly those
that are already disadvantaged.
There are few signs that these inequities will diminish on their own in the near future or that market
forces alone will address them. It is unlikely that these persistent problems will be eliminated
without concerted, societal efforts to solve them. Bold economic policies will be necessary to
improve the economic status of Black and Hispanic Americans moving into the future, but the first
steps are to recognize just what progress has been made, and how much further we have yet to go.
When the pandemic subsides to a degree that Americans can return to some version of their former
lives, it likely will leave in its wake even greater inequality. Policymakers will have to take into
account the racial disparities in the coronavirus’s impact; race-neutral policies may not be enough
to undo the damage. If these conditions are not addressed aggressively, the deepening chasms in
the United States could affect generations of Americans.
40
CHAPTER 4: MISSED OPPORTUNITIES TO SUPPORT WORKERS AND FAMILIES
The coronavirus pandemic has exposed the inadequacy of U.S. policies to support American
workers and their families. Providing adequate paid sick leave, affordable child care and other
family-centered policies are important during normal times, but they can become vital during a
national health crisis or a major recession. These shortcomings have worsened the impacts of the
pandemic, slowed the recovery from the economic crisis and will make it more difficult to achieve
long-term growth.245 Despite a clear need for policies that better support workers and families, the
Trump Administration has done little to alleviate their profound burden.
The coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated the need for comprehensive paid sick leave policy.
During public health crises, paid sick leave becomes an essential tool for keeping workers and
communities healthy. However, one-in-four working Americans — approximately 32 million
people — do not have any paid sick leave, and millions more have access to inadequate paid sick
leave. 246 Those workers have a financial incentive to go to work even if they have symptoms of
COVID-19. Providing adequate paid sick leave is not only essential policy for workers and
families, it is also good economic policy as it helps businesses stay productive by preventing the
spread of illness.
During the spring, one of every eight parents reported that they were forced to quit their job or
reduce their hours because they did not have access to affordable child care.247 Many women, who
disproportionately bear the responsibility of caring for children, have been forced to leave the labor
force.248 America’s failure to contain the coronavirus has also put extraordinary pressure on child
care providers, which continue to suffer from reduced enrollment as well as significantly higher
costs for personal protective equipment and other safety measures. This is driving many child care
providers out of business, crippling the sector even further. An undersupply of affordable child
care may be one factor holding back the U.S. recovery and could have a negative impact on the
economy well into the future.249
The risk of infection, social isolation and high unemployment has put extreme pressure on millions
of American families and has had a devastating effect on mental health. A November survey found
that more than four-in-ten American adults reported symptoms of mental illness — more than
triple the rate reported in 2019.250 In June, another well-regarded survey found that more than one-
in-ten U.S. adults had considered suicide in the past 30 days, more than double what was reported
in 2019.251 A long history of research demonstrates that mental health can profoundly affect
economic output and productivity.
41
Just as the Administration refused to pass an extension of desperately needed unemployment
benefits, it has also failed to alleviate the struggle of American workers and families by
undermining the paid sick leave provisions in Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA),
ignoring the need for child care and turning a blind eye to the suffering of millions of Americans
who are experiencing clinical symptoms of anxiety or depression. 252
PAID SICK LEAVE
When the first wave of the coronavirus hit the United States in the spring of 2020, the nation’s top
public health officials said that strict social distancing measures were critical to contain the spread
of the virus. 253 Many prominent economists and economic policymakers agreed that this was
essential in the short run not only to save lives but to protect the economy in the long run.254
One important strategy for slowing the spread of the virus is to lessen the chance that Americans
who continue to work during the pandemic give it to their co-workers. However, approximately
32 million working Americans do not have any paid sick leave, and millions more have access to
inadequate paid sick leave.255 Those workers have a financial incentive to go to work even if they
have symptoms of COVID-19. Research on the 2009 H1N1 epidemic found that millions of
Americans worked even while infected with the deadly disease.256
Providing adequate paid sick leave is essential worker and family policy, effective public health
policy and good economic policy. For this reason, Congress passed paid sick leave provisions in
the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA). 257 President Trump signed the legislation,
but ensured that it included loopholes covering much of the labor force. FFCRA exempts health
care providers, emergency responders, workers at firms with more than 500 employees and
workers at companies with fewer than 50 employees who applied to the Department of Labor for
relief. 258 This not only struck a blow to some workers who would have received paid sick leave,
but made it more likely that some would go to work even if infected with the coronavirus.
The United States is one of the only high-income countries without universal paid sick leave
One-in-four working Americans does not have any paid sick leave, and millions more have access
to inadequate paid sick leave.259 In contrast, 22 of the highest income countries guaranteed an
average of 10 days of paid sick leave in 2017. Other countries pay for these programs in a variety
of ways. While some — such as Germany, New Zealand and the United Kingdom — rely on a
mandate to require employers to pay employees sick leave, others — including Canada, France
and Japan — leverage preexisting social insurance for long-term leave to pay for short-term leave
as well. Countries with the strongest collective bargaining agreements have some of the most
generous paid sick leave guarantees.260
42
Americans’ access to paid sick leave varies widely by industry, company size and income
While most employees of large U.S. corporations have paid sick leave, only two-thirds at
companies with fewer than 50 employees have access to it. More than 90 percent of the top quarter
of income earners have paid sick leave, while only around 30 percent of the poorest workers do.261
43
Industries with the highest risk of exposure to the coronavirus are least likely to offer paid sick
leave
Ironically, workers in some service sector industries who are at greatest risk of contracting the
coronavirus have the least access to paid sick leave; in the foodservice industry, for example, only
45 percent have access. In March 2019, only 58 percent of service sector workers had access to
paid sick leave. In March 2020, over 130 million jobs were in service-producing industries, making
up almost 90 percent of civilian employment.262 However, that number includes occupations like
stockbrokers and computer programmers who can work from home and have some of the highest
rates of paid sick leave coverage. For this reason, the availability of paid sick leave among lower-
wage service sector workers is a better metric of the paid sick leave access of those most likely to
be exposed.
Research shows that workers will go to work sick even during an outbreak of a serious, contagious
disease. During the 2009 H1N1 epidemic, almost 20 million workers went to work sick, infecting
at least 7 million co-workers.263 Approximately one-third of private sector employees who
contracted the virus went to work anyway, while nine-in-ten public sector employees with the
virus — who are far more likely to have paid sick leave — stayed home. Another study found that
the absence of paid sick leave may have been responsible for an additional 5 million cases of
H1N1.264
Providing paid sick leave is cost-effective for many employers
Contrary to some claims, many employers find that providing paid sick leave to employees has a
net benefit — reducing “presenteeism,” when workers go to work even though they are sick,
44
lowering the spread of illness to other employees and preventing illness-based losses of
productivity. Paid sick days cost employers on average $0.34 per hour per worker — just over 2
percent of all employee compensation. 265 Providing paid sick leave would have saved employers
up to $1.88 billion per year in influenza-like illness absenteeism between 2007 and 2014,
according to research published in the Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine.266
Presenteeism is thought to make workers between 22 and 25 percent less productive. 267 Workers
with paid sick leave are 28 percent less likely to be injured at work than those without paid sick
leave. 268
Multiple studies from several cities where employers are mandated to provide paid sick leave show
that a majority of companies report that implementing paid sick leave was worthwhile. One survey
found that when a new paid sick leave mandate was implemented in Seattle in 2012, 70 percent of
employers were supportive of the new policy. 269A 2018 study by the Upjohn Institute, taking
advantage of the spatial and temporal variation in new state and local paid sick leave mandates,
also found no evidence that employment or wages were impacted, either negatively or positively,
by paid sick leave mandates.270
The Administration undermined legislation to expand paid sick leave during the crisis
After passing the FFCRA, the Trump Administration undermined its paid leave provisions by
expanding broad statutory exemptions through guidance from the Department of Labor, curtailing
benefits for some health care workers and employees of small companies in addition to workers at
large companies. 271 The Heroes Act, passed by the House of Representatives on May 15, 2020
addressed these exemptions by extending paid sick leave to millions of additional workers and
filling gaps left by long-term federal policies and the emergency provisions included in the
FFCRA. 272 The new legislation would protect all workers, regardless of the size of their employer
or their job description. These positive steps, not yet acted on by the Senate and the Trump
Administration, lay the groundwork for additional legislation to provide paid sick leave to
American workers and help protect the public in this pandemic and the next one. The Trump
Administration has failed to ease working families’ decisions about illness and work, as well as
improve public health, by expanding paid sick leave.
CHILD CARE
The coronavirus pandemic has forced large numbers of child care centers to close or scale back
operations due to public health measures or parents’ fear of exposing their children to the virus.
This has decreased the supply of affordable child care just as parents are forced to cope with
increasing demands as a result of the crisis. The child care industry in the United States, which
was weak even before the pandemic because of a lack of federal commitment, is at risk. This
45
threatens to have a long-term impact both on working parents and their children as well as the
broader economy.
The pandemic has threatened the viability of child care providers
America’s failure to contain the coronavirus has put extraordinary pressure on child care providers,
which have suffered from sharply reduced enrollments due to fear of contagion as well as
significantly higher costs for personal protective equipment and other safety measures. More than
four-in-five programs are serving fewer children than before the pandemic, with enrollment down
by 67 percent on average. 273 Many have been forced to slash operations and lay off employees or
close completely.
One sign of the impact on the availability of child care is the very high number of jobs lost during
the pandemic. The economy shed more than 370,000 child care jobs in March and April alone, not
counting the self-employed. 274 The number rebounded somewhat when strict public health
measures were relaxed in most states in late spring, but by November there were still 173,000
fewer child care jobs than in February. The share of jobs lost in the child care industry is among
the hardest hit sectors of the economy. 275
Affordable child care already was in short supply
Even before COVID-19, more than four out of five parents of young children reported that finding
quality, affordable child care in their area was a serious problem. More than half of families with
young children live in “child care deserts,” where the demand for child care far exceeds the
supply. 276 American families that use child care on average spend about one-fourth of their income
on it.277 In 30 states and Washington, D.C. the average cost of center-based infant care is more
than the average cost of in-state college tuition. Between 2000 and 2020, the cost of day care and
preschool rose nearly twice as much as inflation. 278
Child care is far more expensive in the United States than in other developed countries, where it
is seen as a public good. These higher costs are due to the fact that the U.S. federal government
spends less than half as much on child care as a share of its gross domestic product as the average
of other nations in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).279 In
some of those countries, free child care is widely accessible; in others, fees are means-tested and
on average amount to only about 15 percent of average earnings.280
Because American parents are forced to bear a much larger portion of child care costs, access to
care highly depends upon a family’s economic status. Whereas universal, publicly-funded primary
and secondary school education reduces inequality, a lack of accessible and affordable child care
exacerbates it.
46
Accessible and affordable child care increases female labor force participation
The future growth of the U.S. economy depends in part on increasing the labor force participation
rate, the share of the working-age population that is employed or looking for a job. From the mid-
1960s through 2000, the U.S. labor force participation rate rose significantly, partly as a result of
millions of women entering the workforce — mainly women with young children. 281 Women’s
labor force participation in the United States reached a peak in 2000 and then plateaued until the
Great Recession when it declined slightly and settled at a lower plateau until March 2020. It then
fell precipitously as a result of the pandemic. 282
Providing adequate and affordable child care is an important lever for increasing labor force
participation — particularly for women, who shoulder a disproportionate share of child care
responsibilities. The OECD countries that offer better family policies including affordable child
care have higher rates of female labor force participation than the United States.283 Recent research
reveals that maternal labor force participation rises when affordable child care is available — as
much as 5 to 10 percentage points when the care is available at no cost.284 A study by the Economic
Policy Institute found that capping child care expenditures at 10 percent of family income could
increase overall women’s labor force participation enough to boost GDP by roughly $210 billion
(1.2 percent).285
The participation rate for mothers with school-age children declined by 3.3 percentage points
between February and September, 2020, while it only declined 1.3 percentage points for fathers
with school-age children.286 As child care centers and schools closed or shifted to remote learning,
mothers shouldered most of the burden. The resulting decline in women’s participation is
happening at time when women again comprised half of the U.S. workforce right before the
pandemic began. 287 In April, for the first time since April 1986, women’s labor force participation
dipped below 55 percent.288
Child care provides long-term benefits to families and the economy
Parents who have access to affordable child care can remain in the workforce and earn needed
income. Those who leave the workforce to care for children — disproportionately mothers — can
suffer depressed earnings throughout their careers. The lack of affordable child care is a major
factor driving the gender wage gap, with the median woman earning 82 percent of what the median
man earns.
Child care also provides an excellent return on investment. Economists at the Federal Reserve
Bank of Minneapolis found that investments in child care and early education are “the most
efficient means to boost the productivity of the workforce 15 to 20 years down the road.”289 Early
education interventions are estimated to have produced returns of $3 to $17 for every dollar
47
invested, with lower crime and teenage birth rates, higher high school graduation and college
attendance rates and higher lifetime earnings.
Further weakening the U.S. child care system would erode women’s economic progress
Women have borne an outsized share of the burden caused by school and child care closures, but
they were also initially more likely to become unemployed during the pandemic. Approximately
60 percent of the jobs lost in the first wave of pandemic-induced layoffs were held by women.290
Although women’s unemployment rate is currently lower than men’s, this is in part a function of
women leaving the labor force in much higher numbers than men. Without reliable and affordable
child care, mothers will not be able to go back to work — but they cannot pay for child care without
the income they would earn from going back to work.
Women who do not drop out of the workforce altogether can still have their careers harmed when
they make career decisions based on meeting family obligations such as spending more time at
home caring for children or choose a job based on flexibility or commute times. As Betsey
Stevenson, University of Michigan economist and former member of the Council of Economic
Advisers to President Obama, explains, “Those trade-offs end up giving them less opportunity,
fewer opportunities for promotions or raises. That’s why you see much bigger gender gaps for
women by age 50 than you saw at age 30.”291
Congress passed funding for child care, but additional support stalled in the Senate
The Families First Coronavirus Response Act and the CARES Act provided paid leave to many
working parents and much-needed funding to states for child care subsidies to low-income
families. 292 However, an estimated nearly $10 billion per month is needed to help child care
providers safely provide care and prevent many others from being forced to shut down
permanently. While the House of Representatives passed the Heroes Act and the Child Care is
Essential Act, which would provide an additional $7 billion and $50 billion for Child Care
Development Block Grants, respectively, the Administration has failed to support these bills and
they have stalled in the Senate. Without this critical assistance, the nation’s child care system is at
risk, further reducing the supply of affordable child care, making it more difficult for parents to
work and as a result slowing the economic recovery.
MENTAL HEALTH
The combined health and economic shocks of the coronavirus pandemic and the Trump
Administration’s failure to address them have led to an unprecedented mental health crisis. A
recent poll finds that almost two-thirds of Americans fear that they or their loved ones will be
exposed to the virus. Almost one-third of American adults are having trouble paying for usual
48
household expenses. The situation likely may worsen substantially when emergency
unemployment benefits expire for an estimated 12 million workers at the end of 2020.293
As a result of these pressures, a recent online survey of 99,000 households by the U.S. Census
Bureau found that more than two-in-five of American adults report symptoms of depressive and/or
anxiety disorder in November — more than triple the rate reported in 2019.294 In June, another
well-regarded survey found that more than one-in-ten U.S. adults had considered suicide in the
past 30 days — more than double what was reported in 2019. 295 These rates are even higher among
certain populations; more than one-in-two young adults, more than 1 in 5 essential workers and
almost 1 in 3 unpaid caregivers had seriously considered suicide in the past 30 days.296
The pandemic’s health and economic devastation has led to a dramatic increase in rates of anxiety
and depression. This mental health crisis has placed a profound strain on families and the
workforce, both of which can have lasting effects on society and the economy, even beyond the
end of the pandemic.
Fear of the coronavirus, social isolation and acute economic pressure strain Americans’ mental
health
Since the beginning of the pandemic, President Trump has cast doubt on the severity of the
pandemic, including telling the American people that the coronavirus isn’t dangerous.297 Even in
October, as President Donald Trump left Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, he told
Americans “not to be afraid” of the virus. However, a poll conducted in early October found that
65 percent of Americans fear that they or their loved ones will be exposed to the virus. 298 Since
March, the coronavirus has kept millions of Americans isolated and in their homes, away from
friends and family who for many are a critical emotional support network. 299
A long history of research dating back to the Great Recession demonstrates that during times of
economic crises, psychological and social stress rise. As a result of the coronavirus recession, in
late November, over 82 million adults — 35 percent of adults in the country — had difficulty
paying for usual household expenses. 300 Almost 12 percent of adults — 26 million people — did
not have enough food to eat.301 And over 17 million people were not current on rent or mortgage
payments.
Nearly half of young adults report having symptoms of mental illness
According to the Household Pulse Survey, the younger people are the more likely they are to report
having symptoms of depressive and/or generalized anxiety disorder. 302 Young adults aged 18 to
29 report the highest rate of mental illness of any age group: almost six-in-ten (58 percent) report
having symptoms of depressive and/or generalized anxiety disorder. 303 A survey by the Centers
49
for Disease Control and Prevention conducted in June found that over 1 in 4 young adults aged
18-24 had seriously considered suicide in the 30 days prior.304
Hispanic and Black Americans report the highest rates of symptoms of mental illness
People of color are bearing the brunt of the pandemic’s health and economic effects. For example,
Blacks, Hispanics and Native Americans are almost twice as likely as Whites to test positive for
COVID-19 and approximately four times as likely to be hospitalized for it. In late September, 46
percent of Black Americans and 43 percent of Hispanics reported that they had difficulty paying
for usual expenses during the pandemic, compared to 25 percent of Whites.305
Partly as a result of these pressures, Hispanic and Black Americans are more likely to report having
symptoms of mental illness than Whites. According to the Household Pulse Survey, in early
November, 48 percent of Hispanic Americans and 44 percent of Black Americans reported having
symptoms of depressive and/or anxiety disorder, compared to 41 percent of Whites.306 A CDC
survey conducted in June found that Black and Hispanic Americans were at least twice as likely
as Whites to have seriously considered suicide in the past 30 days.307
The pandemic will have a lasting impact on Americans’ mental health
Researchers studying the Great Recession have found “long-lasting…declines in mental health”
for those most affected.308 In the year following Hurricane Katrina, the incidence of mental illness,
post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and suicidal ideation went up.309 This suggests that the
anxiety and depression caused and exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic may have a long-
lasting impact on our society.
50
To tackle this unprecedented mental health crisis, the federal government’s additional pandemic
relief efforts must invest significant resources toward mental health care, especially in the
communities that need them the most. This can include dedicated relief funds to mental health
providers to ensure they have the resources they need to keep their doors open. Efforts should also
include expanding access to mental health care, such as mental health screenings, crisis/grief
counseling and evidence-based crisis responses services. Given the elevated rates of reported
mental illness among people of color and young adults, resources should target these communities.
Special focus should also be given to essential workers and caregivers, both of whom surveys
indicate are experiencing higher rates of mental illness. 310
There is yet no clear end in sight for the coronavirus pandemic, which will continue to have
devastating effects on public health and on the economy. While news of clinical trials on vaccines
has been promising, there is a long way to go before a vaccine will be widely available to the
general public. The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation projects more than 345,000 deaths
by the end of 2020 under current circumstances and almost 540,000 by April 1, 2021.311 The
Federal Reserve expects the unemployment rate to remain above pre-pandemic levels until at least
the end of 2021.312 These intense stresses likely will have a growing and lasting impact on
Americans’ mental health.
51
CONCLUSION
The Trump Administration inherited a strong economy but failed to pursue policies that would
sustain and strengthen the economic expansion. The current Administration will soon become the
first presidency in the modern era to record negative job creation over the course of its term. There
are 3 million fewer jobs today than when President Trump took office in January 2017. 313 As a
result, President Trump will leave to his successor a much weaker economy than the one he
inherited.
Even before the pandemic, the Administration’s economic performance had been unspectacular.
Its costly tax cuts, which were projected to increase the national debt by nearly $2 trillion, delivered
benefits to the wealthiest Americans and large corporations but failed to produce the promised
surge in economic growth or boost to middle-class wages. In 2019, just over a year after the tax
cuts were enacted, the Federal Reserve had been forced to cut interest rates three times partly in
response to the Administration’s erratic trade policies.
The President’s failed response to the coronavirus pandemic, in which he largely did the opposite
of what was recommended by the nation’s top public health experts and economists, has had a
devastating economic impact on millions of Americans. The nation now faces a second wave of
the pandemic that will be much worse than the first wave in the spring. His failure to contain the
coronavirus will be his most lasting economic legacy.
Millions of Americans are experiencing hardship and hunger, are months behind on rent and face
greater challenges in the future. According to the most recent Household Pulse survey from the
Census Bureau, one-third of adults expect a loss of income in the next four weeks, one-third have
difficulty paying usual household expenses and one-third live in a household where eviction or
foreclosure is somewhat or very likely in the next two months. 314 Parents of young children have
paid an especially high price. According to a new study from the Urban Institute, 40 percent of
parents with a child under age 6 reported they or their family experienced a loss of employment or
work-related income during the first six months of the pandemic.315
The Administration’s mismanagement of the coronavirus, and its grudging response to limit the
resulting economic damage, have exposed and widened vast structural inequalities. Low-income
workers and people of color have been most harmed by COVID-19 and the ensuing recession.
They are more likely to be exposed to the virus, to be hospitalized and to die from it.
Unemployment rates for workers of color spiked in the spring and today remain substantially
higher than rates for White workers. Black and Hispanic households report not getting enough to
eat at twice the rate of White households. 316 Labor force participation rates for women, who
52
recently had become the majority of the workforce, have dropped precipitously, in April reaching
the lowest level since 1986. Mothers exited the workforce at much higher rates than fathers to care
for children whose child care centers have been shuttered or whose schools shifted to remote
learning.
While Congress’s fiscal response in the spring, including support for small businesses,
unemployed workers, homeowners and renters, and state and local governments, paired with the
Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy have mitigated the worst impacts of the crisis, much
more needs to be done to ensure the economy does not fall into a protracted recession. As Treasury
Secretary-designate Janet Yellen noted, “Inaction will produce a self-reinforcing downturn causing
yet more devastation.”317
By all objective measures — job growth, unemployment, gross domestic product — President
Trump leaves the economy in much worse condition than he found it. However, the numbers do
not tell the whole story — his failure to use the power of the presidency to fight the coronavirus
will weigh down the U.S. economy for years to come. His successor will be left with an
extraordinary challenge — to reverse the failures of the Trump Administration. He must also move
beyond them to ensure that the United States builds back better from this crisis, fully utilizing the
talents and resources of all of its people to build an economy that is fairer, stronger, more inclusive
and more resilient.
53
ENDNOTES
1
McNicholas, Celine, and Margaret Poydock. 2020, April 14. “The Trump administration has weakened crucial
worker protections needed to combat the coronavirus.” Economic Policy Institute. https://www.epi.org/blog/the-
trump-administration-has-weakened-crucial-worker-protections-needed-to-combat-the-coronavirus-agencies-tasked-
with-protecting-workers-have-put-them-in-danger/; Cochrane, Emily, Claire Cain Miller, and Jim Tankersley. 2020,
April 2. “Trump Administration Scales Back Paid Leave in Coronavirus Relief Law.” The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/coronavirus-paid-leave.html.
2
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, April 3. “The Employment Situation – March 2020.”
https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/economicdata/empsit_04032020.pdf.
3
National Center for Health Statistics. “Household Pulse Survey: Anxiety and Depression.” Symptoms of Anxiety
or Depression Based on Reported Frequency of Symptoms During Last 7 Days, Nov. 11-Nov. 23.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/mental-health.htm.
4
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Unemployment Rate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE; U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. “Did Trump Create or Inherit
the Strong Economy?” https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/2c298bda-8aee-4923-84a3-95a54f7f6e6f/did-
trump-create-or-inherit-the-strong-economy.pdf.
5
Boak, Josh, and Christopher Rugaber. 2018, July 27. “AP FACT CHECK: Trump falsely claims historic
turnaround.” The Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/a7e135215ebc4993a99a85f7eb6963f3; Trump,
Donald. 2020, January 21. Remarks by President Trump at the World Economic Forum. The White House.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-world-economic-forum-davos-
switzerland/; Barstow, David, Susanne Craig, and Russ Buettner. 2018, October 2. “Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax
Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father.” The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-schemes-fred-trump.html.
6
Congressional Budget Office. 2019, January 28. “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029.”
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54918; Tax Policy Center. “How did the TCJA affect the federal budget outlook?”
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-did-tcja-affect-federal-budget-outlook.
7
Bivens, Josh. 2020, October 21. “The Trump administration was ruining the pre-COVID-19 economy too, just
more slowly.” Economic Policy Institute. https://www.epi.org/blog/the-trump-administration-was-ruining-the-pre-
covid-19-19-economy-too-just-more-slowly/.
8
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, May 8. “The Employment Situation – April 2020.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_05082020.pdf.
9
Rampell, Catherine. 2020, April 20. “Trump has almost nothing to lose. That’s why he wants to reopen the
economy.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-mission-to-reopen-the-
economy-is-his-hail-mary-chance-at-reelection/2020/04/20/7263fb1e-833c-11ea-a3eb-e9fc93160703_story.html.
10
The Initiative on Global Markets, Chicago Booth School of Business. 2020, March 27. “Policy for the COVID-19
Crisis.” https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-crisis/.
11
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, December 4. “The Employment Situation – November 2020.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_12042020.pdf.
12
JEC Democratic staff calculations using Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
“Labor Force Participation Rate.” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020,
December 4. “Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_12042020.pdf. This calculation is based on the drop in the labor
force participation rate from February 2020 to November 2020 multiplied by the civilian noninstitutional population
in November 2020.
13
Federal Reserve. 2020, September 16. “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20200916.pdf.
14
Casselman, Ben. 2020, October 29. “Economy’s Big Rebound Leaves a Shortfall as Progress Slows.” The New
York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/business/economy/gdp-q3-economy.html.
54
15
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. All Employees, Total Nonfarm.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS.
16
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “All Employees, Initial Claims.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=wMGt.
17
Johns Hopkins University and Medicine. COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and
Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html; Congressional
Research Service. 2020, July 29. “American War and Military Operations Casualties: Lists and Statistics.”
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf.
18
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Unemployment Rate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE.
19
House Committee on the Budget. 2020, October 29. “President Trump Has Failed the American Economy.”
https://budget.house.gov/publications/report/president-trump-has-failed-american-economy.
20
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Unemployment Rate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE; Somanader, Tanya. 2014, October 10. “Animated Chart of the Week:
The Unemployment Rate Falls to Lowest Rate in 6 Years.” The White House.
https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2014/10/10/animated-chart-week-unemployment-rate-falls-lowest-rate-
6-years.
21
Rich, Robert. “The Great Recession.” Federal Reserve. https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-
recession-of-200709.
22
October 2010-January 2017, JEC Democratic staff calculations using Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Economic
Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. All Employees, Total Nonfarm. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=xSo9;
Kessler, Glenn. 2014, September 15. “Obama’s claim that businesses are in the ‘longest uninterrupted stretch of job
creation.’” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2014/09/15/obamas-
claim-that-businesses-are-in-the-longest-uninterrupted-stretch-of-job-creation/.
23
JEC Democratic staff calculations/Haver Analytics.
24
Blinder, Alan S., and Mark Zandi. 2015, October 15. “The Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Next One.” Center on
Budget and Policy Priorities. https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/the-financial-crisis-lessons-for-the-next-one;
Romer, Paul. 2020, October 14. https://twitter.com/paulmromer/status/1316366899391807488.
25
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Percent Change of Gross Domestic Product.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=yerz.
26
Blinder, Alan S., and Mark Zandi. 2015, October 15. “The Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Next One.” Center on
Budget and Policy Priorities. https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/the-financial-crisis-lessons-for-the-next-one.
27
Ballhaus, Rebecca. 2017, September 29. “Trump Says Tax Cuts Will Supercharge Economic Growth.” The Wall
Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-tax-cuts-will-supercharge-economic-growth-1506703428;
Nutting, Rex. 2019, October 2. “What ever happened to Trump’s boast of 4%, 5% or even 6% growth?”
MarketWatch. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-trumps-economy-went-from-rocket-ship-to-lead-balloon-
2019-09-27; Horsley, Scott. 2019, December 20. “After 2 Years, Trump Tax Cuts Have Failed To Deliver On GOP's
Promises.” NPR. https://www.npr.org/2019/12/20/789540931/2-years-later-trump-tax-cuts-have-failed-to-deliver-
on-gops-promises; O’Brien, Matt. 2017, December 1. “Republicans are looking for proof their tax cuts will pay for
themselves. They won’t find it.” The Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/12/01/republicans-are-looking-for-proof-their-tax-cuts-will-
pay-for-themselves-they-wont-find-it/; Thompson, Derek. 2019, October 31. “The GOP Tax Cuts Didn’t Work.”
The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/10/why-donald-trumps-economic-dream-
crumbled/601153/.
28
House Committee on the Budget. 2020, October 29. “President Trump Has Failed the American Economy.”
https://budget.house.gov/publications/report/president-trump-has-failed-american-economy.
29
Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics.
30
House Committee on the Budget. 2020, October 29. “President Trump Has Failed the American Economy.”
https://budget.house.gov/publications/report/president-trump-has-failed-american-economy.
31
Reuters Staff. 2017, December 16. “Trump defends tax plan as 'great Christmas gifts' to middle class.” Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax-trump/trump-defends-tax-plan-as-great-christmas-gifts-to-middle-class-
idUSKBN1EA0OO.
55
32
Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. 2019, August 28. “TCJA by the Numbers, 2020.” https://itep.org/tcja-
2020/.
33
Ballhaus, Rebecca. 2017, September 29. “Trump Says Tax Cuts Will Supercharge Economic Growth.” The Wall
Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-tax-cuts-will-supercharge-economic-growth-1506703428;
Horsley, Scott. 2019, December 20. “After 2 Years, Trump Tax Cuts Have Failed To Deliver On GOP's Promises.”
NPR. https://www.npr.org/2019/12/20/789540931/2-years-later-trump-tax-cuts-have-failed-to-deliver-on-gops-
promises.
34
Congressional Budget Office. 2019, January 28. “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029.”
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54918; Tax Policy Center. “How did the TCJA affect the federal budget outlook?”
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-did-tcja-affect-federal-budget-outlook.
35
Behsudi, Adam, and Finbarr Bermingham. 2019, August 21. “Trump thinks tariffs will add U.S. manufacturing
jobs. Economic reality says they won’t.” Politico. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/21/trump-tariffs-bikes-
manufacturing-1470361.
36
Swanson, Ana. 2019, November 5. “Trump Vowed to Shrink the Trade Gap. It Keeps Growing.” The New York
Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/05/us/politics/us-trade-deficit.html; The White House. 2019, May 23.
“Remarks by President Trump on Supporting America’s Farmers and Ranchers.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-supporting-americas-farmers-ranchers/;
Swanson, Ana. 2019, September 3. “Trump Says China Will Suffer as Data Shows Trade War Hurting U.S.” The
New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/03/us/politics/trump-china-trade-war.html.
37
Zandi, Mark, Jesse Rogers, and Maria Cosma. 2019, September. “Trade War Chicken: The Tariffs and the
Damage Done.” Moody’s Analytics. https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2019/trade-war-chicken.pdf.
38
Behsudi, Adam, and Finbarr Bermingham. 2019, August 21. “Trump thinks tariffs will add U.S. manufacturing
jobs. Economic reality says they won’t.” Politico. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/21/trump-tariffs-bikes-
manufacturing-1470361.
39
Heeb, Gina. 2020, September 2. “As small U.S. farms face crisis, Trump’s trade aid flowed to corporations.”
CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/02/as-small-us-farms-face-crisis-trumps-trade-aid-flowed-to-
corporations.html.
40
Rappeport, Alan. 2020, October 12. “Trump Funnels Record Subsidies to Farmers Ahead of Election Day.” The
New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/us/politics/trump-farmers-subsidies.html.
41
Smialek, Jeanna, and Ana Swanson. 2020, January 6. “American Consumers, Not China, Are Paying for Trump’s
Tariffs.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/06/business/economy/trade-war-tariffs.html;
Swanson, Ana. 2019, September 3. “Trump Says China Will Suffer as Data Shows Trade War Hurting U.S.” The
New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/03/us/politics/trump-china-trade-war.html; Lynch, David J.
2019, July 23. “Trump says China is paying his tariffs, but U.S. companies keep getting the bill.” The Washington
Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-says-china-is-paying-his-tariffs-but-us-companies-
keep-getting-the-bill/2019/07/22/cbe5a1e4-aca3-11e9-bc5c-e73b603e7f38_story.html.
42
Amiti, Mary, Stephen J. Redding, and David E. Weinstein. 2020, January. “Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A
Longer-Term Perspective.” National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26610.
43
Cavallo, Alberto, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, and Jenny Tang. 2019, October 16. “Tariff Passthrough at the
Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy.” Becker Friedman Institute for Economics at the
University of Chicago. https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/tariff-passthrough-at-the-border-and-at-the-store-
evidence-from-us-trade-policy/.
44
Bui, Quoctrung, and Karl Russell. 2019, September 1. “How Much Will the Trade War Cost You by the End of
the Year?” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/business/economy/trade-war-
costs.html; Jaravel, Xavier, and Erick Sager. 2019, August. “What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the
US and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models.” Centre for Economic Performance.
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1642.pdf.
45
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Trade Balance: Goods and Services, Balance
of Payments Basis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOPGSTB; Palmer, Doug. 2020, October 6. “U.S. goods trade
deficit in August hits record high.” Politico. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/06/goods-trade-deficit-august-
record-high-426739.
56
46
Crutsinger, Martin. 2019, September 16. “With Trump trade war a threat, Fed is set to cut rates again.” The
Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/38bd60d6f2f64f8daeb273b2042d03a8; Federal Reserve. Open Market
Operations. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
47
The White House. 2020, February 4. “Remarks by President Trump in State of the Union Address.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-state-union-address-3/; Stahl, Chelsea.
2020, October 2. “First Presidential debate: Full coverage and fact checks.” NBC News.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/first-presidential-debate-trump-biden-
n1241282/ncrd1241509#blogHeader; Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. All
Employees, Manufacturing. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ysjR.
48
Long, Heather, and Andrew Van Dam. 2020, January 17. “U.S. manufacturing was in a mild recession during
2019, a sore spot for the economy.” The Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/17/us-manufacturing-was-mild-recession-during-2019-sore-
spot-economy/.
49
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, February 7. Current Employment Statistics Highlights.
https://www.bls.gov/ces/publications/highlights/2020/current-employment-statistics-highlights-01-2020.pdf.
50
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. All Employees, Manufacturing.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=wMiR.
51
The White House. 2017, February 28. “Remarks by President Trump in Joint Address to Congress.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-joint-address-congress/; Shepardson,
David, and Ginger Gibson. 2017, February 23. “Trump again vows to bring back U.S. jobs, but offers few details.”
Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-ceos/trump-again-vows-to-bring-back-u-s-jobs-but-offers-
few-details-idUSKBN162209; Tankersley, Jim. 2019, August 13. “Trump’s Push to Bring Back Jobs to U.S. Shows
Limited Results.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/13/business/economy/donald-trump-
jobs-created.html.
52
Kessler, Glenn, Salvador Rizzo, and Sarah Cahlan. 2020, February 4. “Fact-checking President Trump’s 2020
State of the Union address.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/04/fact-
checking-president-trumps-2020-state-union-
address/?utm_campaign=wp_the_daily_202&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_daily202.
53
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Unemployment Rate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE.
54
Woodward, Calvin, Hope Yen, and Christopher Rugaber. 2019, February 9. “AP FACT CHECK: Trump swipes
progress from Obama era.” The Associated Press.
https://apnews.com/article/3e265c4138d04e22886e6e1818789734; Kessler, Glenn. 2017, August 24. “Trump’s
claim that he, himself, created 1 million jobs as president.” The Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/08/24/trumps-claim-that-he-himself-created-1-
million-jobs-as-president/; Schwartz, Nelson D., and Patricia Cohen. 2020, April 3. “Decade of Job Growth Comes
to an End, Undone by a Pandemic.” The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/business/economy/coronavirus-jobs-report.html.
55
October 2010-January 2017; Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. All Employees,
Total Nonfarm. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=xSnT.
56
Jan. 2017-Jan. 2020 for President Trump and Dec. 2013-Dec. 2016 for President Obama. JEC Democratic staff
calculations/Haver Analytics.
57
Romer, Paul. 2020, October 14. https://twitter.com/paulmromer/status/1316366899391807488.
58
House Committee on the Budget. 2020, October 29. “President Trump Has Failed the American Economy.”
https://budget.house.gov/publications/report/president-trump-has-failed-american-economy; Haver Analytics.
59
Redlener, Irwin, et al. 2020, October 21. “130,000-210,000 Avoidable COVID-19 Deaths — and Counting — in
the U.S.” National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Columbia University. https://ncdp.columbia.edu/custom-
content/uploads/2020/10/Avoidable-COVID-19-Deaths-US-NCDP.pdf.
60
Paz, Christian. 2020, November 2. “All the President’s Lies About the Coronavirus.” The Atlantic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/trumps-lies-about-coronavirus/608647/; Kessler, Glenn. 2020,
July 8. “Trump’s claim that 99 percent of coronavirus cases are ‘totally harmless.’” The Washington Post.
57
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/07/08/trumps-claim-that-99-percent-covid-9-cases-are-totally-
harmless/.
61
Sheth, Sonam. 2020, June 15. “Trump says that 'if we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases' of the
coronavirus.” Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-stop-coronavirus-testing-right-now-have-
very-few-cases-2020-6.
62
Blake, Aaron. 2020, June 25. “Trump’s dumbfounding refusal to encourage wearing masks.” The Washington
Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/25/trumps-dumbfounding-refusal-encourage-wearing-
masks/; Cathey, Libby. 2020, October 2. “Trump, downplaying virus, has mocked wearing masks for months.” ABC
News. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-downplaying-virus-mocked-wearing-masks-
months/story?id=73392694.
63
Cathey, Libby. 2020, August 8. “Timeline: Tracking Trump alongside scientific developments on
hydroxychloroquine.” ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/timeline-tracking-trump-alongside-scientific-
developments-hydroxychloroquine/story?id=72170553.
64
Segers, Grace, and Nicole Sgang. 2020, July 9. “Tulsa health official says Trump rally "likely contributed" to
spike in coronavirus cases.” CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tulsa-coronavirus-cases-trump-rally/.
65
Economic Strategy Group. 2020, March 25. Economic Strategy Group Statement on COVID-19 Pandemic and
Economic Crisis. https://www.economicstrategygroup.org/publication/economic-strategy-group-statement-covid19/.
66
Haberman, Maggie, and David E. Sanger. 2020, March 23. “Trump Says Coronavirus Cure Cannot ‘Be Worse
Than the Problem Itself.’” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/politics/trump-
coronavirus-restrictions.html.
67
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020, July 14. “CDC calls on Americans to wear masks to prevent
COVID-19 spread.” https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0714-americans-to-wear-masks.html.
68
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020. “Scientific Brief: Community Use of Cloth Masks to Control
the Spread of SARS-CoV-2.” https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html.
69
Solender, Andrew. 2020, October 29. “Fauci Endorses National Mask Mandate But Concedes It’s Unlikely Under
Trump.” Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/10/29/fauci-endorses-national-mask-mandate-
but-concedes-its-unlikely-under-trump/?sh=1f00c93ceda8.
70
Riechmann, Deb. 2020, October 29. “As virus surges, Trump rallies keep packing in thousands.” The Associated
Press. https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-rallies-virus-surges-50e79fabd46472c51ecc1444184082de; BBC.
2020, October 10. “White House hosted Covid 'superspreader' event, says Dr Fauci.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54487154.
71
Dizikes, Peter. 2020, August 5. “Masks mandates have major impact, study finds.” MIT News.
https://news.mit.edu/2020/masks-mandates-impact-deaths-0805.
72
Mitze, Timo, Reinhold Kosfeld, Johannes Rode, and Klause Wälde. 2020, December 3. “Face masks considerably
reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of
America. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/12/02/2015954117.
73
IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team. 2020, October 3. “Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States.”
Nature Medicine. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1132-9.
74
Aizenman, Nurith. 2020, July 23. “Can Masks Save Us From More Lockdowns? Here's What The Science Says.”
NPR. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/23/894425483/can-masks-save-us-from-more-lockdowns-
heres-what-the-science-says.
75
Goldman Sachs. 2020, June 29. “Face Masks and GDP.” https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/face-
masks-and-gdp.html; Newmyer, Tory. 2020, July 1. “The Finance 202: Goldman Sachs says wearing face masks
could save the economy.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-
finance-202/2020/07/01/the-finance-202-goldman-sachs-says-wearing-face-masks-could-save-the-
economy/5efbc17388e0fa7b44f6b7f9/.
76
Polyakova, Maria, et al. 2020, April 5. “COVID19: Can Masks Help with Reopening the Economy?” Stanford
Institute for Economic Policy Research. https://healthpolicy.fsi.stanford.edu/news/can-masks-help-reopening-
economy.
77
Shear, Michael D., et al. 2020, July 18. “Inside Trump’s Failure: The Rush to Abandon Leadership Role on the
Virus.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-response-failure-
leadership.html.
58
78
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “All Employees, Total Nonfarm.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=wxF5; Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
“Unemployment Rate.” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE; Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, May 8. “The
Employment Situation – April 2020.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_05082020.pdf.
79
Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2020, September 30. “Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits
(Revised), and GDP by Industry, Second Quarter 2020.” https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-
third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-and-gdp-industry-annual; Casselman, Ben. 2020, October 29. “U.S.
economic growth hit a quarterly record, but a shortfall remains.” The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/business/economy/gdp-q3-economy.html.
80
There were approximately 957,000 regular initial unemployment insurance claims in the week ending January 10,
2009. Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “All Employees, Initial Claims.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=wMGt; Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
“All Employees, Initial Claims.” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=y5sl.
81
Department of Labor/Haver Analytics.
82
The Initiative on Global Markets, Chicago Booth School of Business. 2020, March 27. “Policy for the COVID-19
Crisis.” https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-crisis/.
83
Trump, Donald. 2020, April 17. Twitter. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1251169217531056130.
84
Perez, Matt. 2020, May 9. “Trump on Reopening: ‘Will Some People Be Affected Badly? — Yes.’” Forbes.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/05/05/trump-on-reopening-will-some-people-be-affected-
badlyyes/#782f2c7025ec.
85
Haberman, Maggie, and Sanger, David E. 2020, March 23. “Trump Says Coronavirus Cure Cannot ‘Be Worse
Than the Problem Itself.’” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/politics/trump-
coronavirus-restrictions.html.
86
Chetty, Raj, et al., and the Opportunity Insights Team. 2020. “Real-Time Economics: A New Platform to Track
the Impacts of COVID-19 on People, Businesses, and Communities Using Private Sector Data.”
https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf; Bartik, Alexander, et al. 2020, April
8. “Labor market impacts of COVID-19 on hourly workers in small- and medium-sized businesses: Four facts from
Homebase data.” Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation.
https://www.chicagobooth.edu/research/rustandy/%20blog/2020/labor-market-impacts-from-covid19; Villas-Boas,
Sofia, et al. 2020. “Are We #Staying Home to Flatten the Curve?” UC Berkeley: Department of Agricultural and
Resource Economics CUDARE Working Papers. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5h97n884.
87
Goolsbee, Austan, and Syverson, Chad. 2020. “Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic
Economic Decline 2020.” National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27432.
88
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Unemployment Rate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE; JEC Democratic staff calculations using Federal Reserve Economic
Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “Labor Force Participation Rate.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART and Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Table A-1. Employment status of the
civilian population by sex and age.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11062020.pdf.
89
Ann Bovino, Beth. 2020, November 19. “Economic Research: Next Steps For President-Elect Biden: Containing
Coronavirus And Stabilizing The U.S. Economy.” S&P Global.
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/201119-economic-research-next-steps-for-president-elect-
biden-containing-coronavirus-and-stabilizing-the-u-s-econo-11741713.
90
Casselman, Ben. 2020, October 27. “Why the Best G.D.P. Report Ever Won’t Mean the Economy Has Healed.”
The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/business/economy/gdp-economy.html.
91
Johns Hopkins University and Medicine. COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and
Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.
92
Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2020, September 30. “Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits
(Revised), and GDP by Industry, Second Quarter 2020.” https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-
third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-and-gdp-industry-annual; Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2020, October 29.
“Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate).” https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-
domestic-product-third-quarter-2020-advance-estimate; Casselman, Ben. 2020, October 27. “Why the Best G.D.P.
59
Report Ever Won’t Mean the Economy Has Healed.” The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/business/economy/gdp-economy.html.
93
Casselman, Ben. 2020, October 29. “A slowing U.S. economic recovery is forecast for the rest of the year.” The
New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/29/business/us-economy-coronavirus/a-slowing-us-
economic-recovery-is-forecast-for-the-rest-of-the-year; Casselman, Ben. 2020, October 29. “Economy’s Big
Rebound Leaves a Shortfall as Progress Slows.” The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/business/economy/gdp-q3-economy.html.
94
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “All Employees, Total Nonfarm.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=wxP6.
95
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, December 4. “The Employment Situation – November 2020.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_12042020.pdf; Bureau of Labor Statistics. Civilian
unemployment rate. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm.
96
JEC Democratic staff calculations using Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
“Labor Force Participation Rate.” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020,
December 4. “Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_12042020.pdf; Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis. “Unemployment Rate.” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=wXTj. This calculation is based on
the drop in the labor force participation rate from February 2020 to November 2020 multiplied by the civilian
noninstitutional population in November 2020.
97
Federal Reserve. 2020, September 16. “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20200916.pdf.
98
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, December 4. “Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm; Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis. Number Unemployed for 27 Weeks & Over. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ykD0.
99
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, December 4. “The Employment Situation – November 2020.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_12042020.pdf.
100
Smialek, Jeanna, Ben Casselman, and Gillian Friedman. 2020, October 3. “Workers Face Permanent Job Losses
as the Virus Persists.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/03/business/economy/coronavirus-
permanent-job-losses.html.
101
Department of Labor. 2020, December 10. “Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims.”
https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2020/121020.pdf.
102
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “All Employees, Initial Claims.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=wMGt.
103
There were approximately 947,000 regular initial unemployment insurance claims in the week ending December
5, 2020. There were about 318,000 initial claims in the comparable week in 2019. Department of Labor. 2020,
December 10. “Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims.” https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2020/121020.pdf.
104
Department of Labor/Haver Analytics.
105
Department of Labor. 2020, December 10. “Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims.”
https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2020/121020.pdf.
106
Department of Labor. 2020, December 10. “Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims.”
https://oui.doleta.gov/press/2020/121020.pdf.
107
Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey. 2020, Week 19. “Difficulty Paying for Usual Household Expenses.”
https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/hhp/#/?measures=EXR; Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey. 2020,
Week 19. “Food Scarcity.” https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/hhp/#/?measures=FIR.
108
Census Bureau. Household Pulse Survey. 2020, Week 19. “Likelihood of Eviction or Foreclosure.”
https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/hhp/#/?measures=EVR.
109
DeParle, Jason. 2020, October 5. “8 Million Have Slipped Into Poverty Since May as Federal Aid Has Dried
Up.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/15/us/politics/federal-aid-poverty-levels.html.
110
Federal Reserve. 2020. “Update on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households: July 2020 Results.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2019-report-economic-well-being-us-households-update-
202009.pdf.
60
111
Chair Jerome H. Powell. 2020, June 16. “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20200616a.htm.
112
Timiraos, Nick. 2020, September 16. “Fed Signals Low Rates Likely to Last Several Years.” The Wall Street
Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-signals-interest-rates-to-stay-near-zero-through-2023-11600279214.
113
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Economic Database. Initial Claims.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICNSA.
114
Klein, Ezra. 2020, March 13. "This feels much worse than 2008”: Obama’s chief economist on coronavirus’s
economic threat." Vox. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/13/21177850/coronavirus-covid-19-recession-stock-market-
economy-jobs-stimulus.
115
Tankersley, Jim. 2020, July 23. “The Tax Cut That Trump Wants, but Few Others Do, Explained.” The New York
Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/business/payroll-tax-cut-trump-recession.html; Restuccia, Andrew.
2020, May 26. “Trump Administration Examining Idea of Back-to-Work Bonuses, Kudlow Says.” The Wall Street
Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-examining-idea-of-back-to-work-bonuses-kudlow-
says-11590510313.
116
Cochrane, Emily. 2020, May 11. “G.O.P. Split Over State Aid That Could Mostly Go to Democratic
Strongholds.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/11/us/politics/state-aid-coronavirus-
congress.html; Romm, Tony, and Erica Werner. 2020, July 13. “State, local governments wrestle over quickly
dwindling coronavirus aid, complicating talks on next federal bill.” The Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/07/13/cities-states-cares-act/.
117
Oum, Stephanie, Adam Wexler, and Jennifer Kates. 2020, March 11. "The U.S. Response to Coronavirus:
Summary of the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2020." Kaiser Family
Foundation. https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/the-u-s-response-to-coronavirus-summary-of-the-
coronavirus-preparedness-and-response-supplemental-appropriations-act-2020/; Moss, Kellie, et al. 2020, March 23.
"The Families First Coronavirus Response Act: Summary of Key Provisions." Kaiser Family Foundation.
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/the-families-first-coronavirus-response-act-summary-of-key-
provisions/.
118
House Appropriations Committee. H.R. 6201, Families First Coronavirus Response Act: Emergency Paid Sick.
Leave. https://appropriations.house.gov/sites/democrats.appropriations.house.gov/files/2020-03-
17%20Emergency%20Paid%20Sick-Family%20Leave%20Fact%20Sheet%20Enrolled%20FINAL.pdf.
119
Bauer, Lauren at al. 2020, July 30. "The Effect of Pandemic EBT on Measures of Food Hardship." The Hamilton
Project. https://www.hamiltonproject.org/papers/the_effect_of_pandemic_ebt_on_measures_of_food_hardship.
120
Emsellem, Maurice, and Michelle Evermore. 2020, March 24. “Understanding the Unemployment Provisions of
the Families First Coronavirus Response Act.” National Employment Law Project.
https://www.nelp.org/publication/understanding-the-unemployment-provisions-of-the-families-first-coronavirus-
response-act/.
121
National Employment Law Project. 2020, March 27. “Unemployment Insurance Provisions in the Coronavirus
Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.” https://www.nelp.org/publication/unemployment-insurance-
provisions-coronavirus-aid-relief-economic-security-cares-act/.
122
Parrott, Sharon, et al. 2020, March 27. “CARES Act Includes Essential Measures to Respond to Public Health,
Economic Crises, But More Will Be Needed.” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/cares-act-includes-essential-measures-to-respond-to-public-health-
economic-crises; U.S. Department of the Treasury. “The CARES Act Provides Assistance to Small Businesses.”
https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares/assistance-for-small-
businesses#:~:text=The%20Paycheck%20Protection%20Program%20established,of%20payroll%20costs%20includi
ng%20benefits; Congressional Research Service. 2020, April 10. “Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund and
COVID-19.”
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11474#:~:text=The%20CARES%20Act%20provides%20Treasury,
by%20some%20as%20%E2%80%9Cbailouts.%E2%80%9D; Internal Revenue Service. FAQs: Employee Retention
Credit under the CARES Act. https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/faqs-employee-retention-credit-under-the-cares-act;
Acosta, Sonya, Anna Bailey, and Peggy Bailey. 2020, July 27. “Extend CARES Act Eviction Moratorium, Combine
With Rental Assistance to Promote Housing Stability.” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
61
https://www.cbpp.org/research/housing/extend-cares-act-eviction-moratorium-combine-with-rental-assistance-to-
promote.
123
Parrott, Sharon, et al. 2020, March 27. “CARES Act Includes Essential Measures to Respond to Public Health,
Economic Crises, But More Will Be Needed.” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/cares-act-includes-essential-measures-to-respond-to-public-health-
economic-crises.
124
Furman, Jason, and Wilson Powell III. 2020, June 5. "The US unemployment rate is higher than it looks — and is
still high if all furloughed workers returned." Peterson Institute of Economic and International Affairs.
https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-unemployment-rate-higher-it-looks-and-still-high-
if-all.
125
Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2020, May 29. "Personal Income and Outlays: April 2020."
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/pi0420_0.pdf.
126
Matthews, Dylan. 2020, December 3. "Joe Biden is taking office amid a poverty crisis." Vox.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21582005/joe-biden-poverty-covid.
127
Chaney, Sarah, and Harriet Torry. 2020, April 30. “Coronavirus Prompts Record Drop in Consumer Spending.”
The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/personal-income-household-spending-coronavirus-march-
2020-11588197997. Chaney, Sarah, and Gwynn Guilford. 2020, May 29. “Consumer Spending Fell a Record 13.6%
in April.” The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-spending-personal-income-coronavirus-
april-2020-11590701150.
128
Hanson, Samuel, et al. 2020, September 23."Business credit programs in the pandemic era.” Brookings
Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/business-credit-programs-in-the-pandemic-era/; Labonte, Marc.
2020, June 12. “The Federal Reserve’s Response to COVID-19: Policy Issues.” Congressional Research Service.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46411.
129
Smialek, Jeanna. 2020, May 12. “Fed Makes Initial Purchases in Its First Corporate Debt Buying Program.” The
New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/business/economy/fed-corporate-debt-coronavirus.html.
130
Bernstein, Mark. 2020, June 11."‘Our Authority Is Very Strong’: Fed Chair Jerome Powell ’75 Speaks At
Reunions." Princeton Alumni Weekly. https://paw.princeton.edu/article/our-authority-very-strong-fed-chair-jerome-
powell-75-speaks-reunions.
131
Adamczyk, Alicia. 2020, May 28. “The extra $600 in weekly unemployment benefits runs out at the end of July
— here’s what you need to know.” CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/extra-600-dollars-in-weekly-
unemployment-benefits-runs-out-in-july.html.
132
House Appropriations Committee. 2020, May 12. “House Democrats Introduce the Heroes Act.”
https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/house-democrats-introduce-the-heroes-
act#:~:text=Among%20its%20many%20provisions%2C%20the,danger%20of%20losing%20their%20jobs; Nova,
Annie. 2020, May 22. “Big changes could be coming for student loan borrowers.” CNBC.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/heres-what-student-loan-borrowers-can-expect-in-the-coming-months.html.
133
Stettner, Andrew. 2020, July 8. “More than 25 Million Americans Are About to Lose an Essential $600-a-Week
Unemployment Insurance Benefit.” The Century Foundation. https://tcf.org/content/commentary/25-million-
americans-lose-essential-600-week-unemployment-insurance-benefit/.
134
Goger, Annelies, Tracy Hadden Loh, and Nicole Bateman. 2020, May 12. “Debunking myths about COVID-19
relief’s ‘unemployment insurance on steroids.’” Brookings Institution.
https://www.brookings.edu/research/debunking-myths-about-covid-19-reliefs-unemployment-insurance-on-
steroids/.
135
Congressional Budget Office. 2020, June 4. "Re: Economic Effects of Additional Unemployment Benefits of
$600 per Week.” https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-06/56387-CBO-Grassley-Letter.pdf.
136
Duehren, Andrew. 2020, July 27. “GOP Releases Coronavirus Relief Proposal After Delay.” The Wall Street
Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/gop-to-release-coronavirus-aid-proposal-after-delay-11595860826; U.S.
Congress Joint Economic Committee. "Cutting Payroll Taxes is an Ineffective Way to Counter the Economic
Damage of the Coronavirus." https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/70894c43-4ba7-4703-8458-
c57fa9377dc2/payroll-tax-cut-final-3.pdf.
137
Wamhoff, Steve. 2020, March 13. "Trump’s Proposed Payroll Tax Elimination.” Institute on Taxation and
Economic Policy. https://itep.org/trumps-proposed-payroll-tax-elimination/.
62
138
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. "Cutting Payroll Taxes is an Ineffective Way to Counter the
Economic Damage of the Coronavirus." https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/70894c43-4ba7-4703-8458-
c57fa9377dc2/payroll-tax-cut-final-3.pdf.
139
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. "The Administration’s “Return-to-Work Bonus” Is No Substitute For
Enhanced Unemployment Benefits." https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/f99bb5fd-cddb-465c-a29d-
1a8837e28fa0/return-to-work-bonus-06-26-2020-final.pdf.
140
Reuters. 2020, August 4. “Trump says coronavirus under control as U.S. death toll rises.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-trump/trump-says-coronavirus-under-control-as-u-s-
death-toll-rises-idUSKCN2501OX; The New York Times. “Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count.”
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html.
141
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. "The Administration’s “Return-to-Work Bonus” Is No Substitute For
Enhanced Unemployment Benefits." https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/f99bb5fd-cddb-465c-a29d-
1a8837e28fa0/return-to-work-bonus-06-26-2020-final.pdf.
142
Zhou, Li, and Ella Nilsen. 2020, July 28. "Senate Republicans’ dramatically smaller unemployment insurance
proposal, explained." Vox. https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21345006/senate-republicans-heals-act-unemployment-
insurance; Liu, Jennifer. 2020, July 28. "Enhanced unemployment would drop to $200 per week through September
under new Senate proposal.” CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/how-senate-heals-act-enhanced-
unemployment-would-work.html.
143
Zhou, Li, and Ella Nilsen. 2020, July 28. "Senate Republicans’ dramatically smaller unemployment insurance
proposal, explained." Vox. https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21345006/senate-republicans-heals-act-unemployment-
insurance.
144
Stettner, Andrew, and Michele Evermore. 2020, August 20. "Trump’s Lost Wage Assistance Program No
Substitute for Federal Unemployment Benefits." The Century Foundation.
https://tcf.org/content/commentary/trumps-lost-wage-assistance-program-no-substitute-federal-unemployment-
benefits/.
145
Parolin, Zachary, et al. 2020, October 15. "Monthly Poverty Rates in the United States during the COVID-19
Pandemic." Columbia University Center on Poverty and Social Policy.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5743308460b5e922a25a6dc7/t/5f87c59e4cd0011fabd38973/1602733471158/
COVID-Projecting-Poverty-Monthly-CPSP-2020.pdf.
146
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. "Massive Aid to State and Local Governments Needed to Slow
Economic Damage." https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/3706c722-9908-410b-b0f0-6f988c6db1dc/state-
and-local-fiscal-relief-jec.pdf.
147
Auerbach, Alan. 2020, September 24. "Fiscal Effects of COVID-19.” Brookings Institution.
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Auerbach-et-al-conference-draft.pdf.
148
Leachman, Michael. 2020, May 28. “How Should States, Localities Spend CARES Act’s Coronavirus Relief
Fund?” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. https://www.cbpp.org/blog/how-should-states-localities-spend-
cares-acts-coronavirus-relief-fund.
149
Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted."
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm; Leachman, Michael, and Elizabeth McNichol. 2020, October 30.
"Pandemic’s Impact on State Revenues Less Than Earlier Expected But Still Severe." Center on Budget and Policy
Priorities. https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/pandemics-impact-on-state-revenues-less-than-
earlier-expected-but.
150
Greenblatt, Alan. 2020, August 7. “Why Federal Aid Remains a Tough Sell for States and Localities.”
Governing. https://www.governing.com/finance/Why-Federal-Aid-Remains-a-Tough-Sell-for-States-and-
Localities.html; Raju, Manu, Ted Barrett, and Lauren Fox. 2020, May 5. “'People were pretty fired up': GOP
senators split over giving more money to state and local governments.” CNN.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/politics/republican-divide-state-local-government-money/index.html.
151
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. "McConnell Is Wrong: Forcing States into Bankruptcy Defies Logic."
https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/a4b9d6c8-b521-4901-a6c5-c30d7adf3a82/mcconnell-is-wrong---
forcing-states-into-bankruptcy-defies-logic.pdf.
152
Wilkie, Christina. 2020, May 5. "Trump says coronavirus ‘bailouts’ for blue states are unfair to Republicans."
CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/coronavirus-trump-says-blue-state-bailouts-unfair-to-republicans.html.
63
153
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. 2020, November 6. "States Grappling With Hit to Tax Collections."
https://www.cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/states-grappling-with-hit-to-tax-collections.
154
House, Billy, and Erik Wasson. 2020, July 2. “House Clears Extension of Small Business Loan Program to
August.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-small-business/house-clears-
extension-of-small-business-loan-program-to-august/2020/07/01/96fbfbc0-bc08-11ea-97c1-
6cf116ffe26c_story.html.
155
Small Business Administration. “Paycheck Protection Program.” https://www.sba.gov/funding-
programs/loans/coronavirus-relief-options/paycheck-protection-
program#:~:text=The%20Paycheck%20Protection%20Program%20is,an%20interest%20rate%20of%201%25.
156
Hamilton, Steven. 2020, September. "From Survival to Revival: How to Help Small Businesses through the
COVID-19 Crisis." The Hamilton Project. https://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/files/PP_Hamilton_Final.pdf.
157
Hamilton, Steven. 2020, September. "From Survival to Revival: How to Help Small Businesses through the
COVID-19 Crisis." The Hamilton Project. https://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/files/PP_Hamilton_Final.pdf.
158
Fischer, Amanda. 2020, July 15. "Did the Paycheck Protection Program work for small businesses across the
United States?" Washington Center for Equitable Growth. https://equitablegrowth.org/did-the-paycheck-protection-
program-work-for-small-businesses-across-the-united-states/.
159
Hamilton, Steven. 2020, September. "From Survival to Revival: How to Help Small Businesses through the
COVID-19 Crisis." The Hamilton Project. https://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/files/PP_Hamilton_Final.pdf;
O’Connell, Jonathan. 2020, July 2. “More than half of emergency small-business funds went to larger businesses,
new data shows.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/01/ppp-sba-data/.
160
Fischer, Amanda. 2020, July 15. "Did the Paycheck Protection Program work for small businesses across the
United States?" Washington Center for Equitable Growth. https://equitablegrowth.org/did-the-paycheck-protection-
program-work-for-small-businesses-across-the-united-states/.
161
Stettner, Andrew, and Elizabeth Pancotti. 2020, November 18. "12 Million Workers Facing Jobless Benefit Cliff
on December 26." The Century Foundation. https://tcf.org/content/report/12-million-workers-facing-jobless-benefit-
cliff-december-26/.
162
Davidson, Kate. 2020, November 15. “Millions of Unemployed Americans Face Loss of Benefits at Year’s End.”
The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/millions-of-unemployed-americans-face-loss-of-benefits-at-
years-end-11605448802.
163
Werner, Erica, and Jeff Stein. 2020, October 1. “House Democrats pass $2.2 trillion stimulus bill over GOP
opposition; bipartisan talks continue.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-
policy/2020/10/01/white-house-democrats-economic-stimulus/.
164
Kapur, Sahil, and Julie Tsirkin. 2020, July 27. “Senate Republicans move to cut $600 weekly jobless benefit by
two-thirds.” NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-republicans-move-cut-600-weekly-
jobless-benefit-200-n1234997; Bresnahan, John, Marianne Levine, and Jake Sherman. 2020, July 30. “Millions to
lose $600 weekly jobless aid amid Senate stalemate.” Politico. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/30/senate-
gop-unemployment-extension-388170.
165
Duehren, Andrew, and Kate Davidson. 2020, August 14. “State-Aid Disagreement Proves Big Hurdle for
Coronavirus Talks.” The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-aid-disagreement-provesbig-
hurdle-for-coronavirus-talks-11597406398.
166
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. "New Report Argues That New Coronavirus Legislation Should Tie
Economic Support to Economic Conditions." https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/press-
releases?ID=36DED8CD-977B-4CA5-99BE-5E12206523DA.
167
Office of U.S. Congressman Don Beyer. 2020, May 5. "Bicameral Delegation Releases Framework For
Legislation Tying Expanded Unemployment Benefits To Public Health Emergency And Economic Conditions.”
https://beyer.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=4820.
168
Boushey, Heather, Ryan Nunn, and Jay Shambaugh. 2019. Recession Ready. The Hamilton Project and
Washington Center for Equitable Growth. https://equitablegrowth.org/wp-
content/uploads/2019/05/AutomaticStabilizers_FullBook_web_20190513.pdf.
169
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Economic Data. Personal Saving Rate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT.
64
170
Farrell, Diana. 2020, October. “The unemployment benefit boost: Trends in spending and saving when the $600
supplement ended.” JPMorgan Chase Institute. https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-
and-co/institute/pdf/Institute-UI-Benefits-Boost-Policy-Brief_ADA.pdf.
171
The New York Times. “Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count.”
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html; Strauss, Valerie. 2020, November 14.
“Schools start closing — or delay reopening — as covid-19 cases jump across the country.” The Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2020/11/14/schools-start-closing-or-delay-reopening-covid-19-cases-
jump-across-country/.
172
Torry, Harriet, and Anthony DeBarros. 2020, September 10. “WSJ Survey: Overall Economy Is Recovering
Faster Than Economists Expected.” The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-survey-overall-
economy-is-recovering-faster-than-economists-expected-11599746400; Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, May 8.
“The Employment Situation – April 2020.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_05082020.pdf.
173
Hispanic and Hispanic American are used in this report. Hispanic is often used interchangeably with the Spanish-
language term, Latino and the gender-neutral term, Latinx. In historical data series from official statistical agencies,
sources often use the term Hispanic. Other and more recent sources may use Latino, Latinx or other terms for
Americans of Latin American or Spanish descent.
Per the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), “Hispanic or Latino” refers to “a person of Cuban, Mexican,
Puerto Rican, Cuban, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race.” Some
others use the term “Hispanic” to include both Spanish and non-Spanish speaking countries of Latin America, while
some use “Hispanic” only to refer to those of Spanish origin or descent. Since 2000, the U.S. decennial census has
asked all Americans if they are of Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin. In most federal data sources, both “Hispanic”
and “Latino” are inclusive of Americans that self-report as “Hispanic,” “Hispanic” or “Spanish origin.” “Latino” is a
universal or masculine identifier; “Latina” is a feminine identifier.
174
Powell, Jerome H. 2018, August 24. “Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20180824a.htm.
175
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, May 8. “Employment Situation News Release – April
2020.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_05082020.htm; Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, June 5.
“Employment Situation News Release – May 2020.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_05082020.htm; In 2020, peak unemployment for overall and
Hispanic workers occurred in April. Peak unemployment for Black workers occurred in May 2020.
176
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020, November 30. “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19):
Hospitalization and Death by Race/Ethnicity.” https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-
data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html.
177
Report, p. 69-103; U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. “Did Trump Create or Inherit the Strong
Economy?” https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/2c298bda-8aee-4923-84a3-95a54f7f6e6f/did-trump-
create-or-inherit-the-strong-economy.pdf.
178
Report, p. 74; Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2019, September 6. “Employment situation news release – August
2019.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09062019.htm.
179
Report, p. 69-75, 80-84.
180
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. “Did Trump Create or Inherit the Strong Economy?”
https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/2c298bda-8aee-4923-84a3-95a54f7f6e6f/did-trump-create-or-inherit-
the-strong-economy.pdf.
181
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. “Two Years of Evidence Show 2017 Tax Cuts Failed to Deliver
Promised Economic Boost.” https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/4150f60c-56af-4b6a-8f0e-
fb0b34aafed8/two-years-of-evidence-show-2017-tax-cuts-failed-to-deliver-promised-economic-boost-update-
01.22.2020-final.pdf.
182
Hall, Robert E., and Marianna Kudlyak. 2020. “Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from
Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?” NBER Working Paper, (w27234). https://www.nber.org/papers/w27234;
Coy, Peter. 2019, January. “Do Economic Booms Die of Old Age?” Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-10/do-economic-booms-die-of-old-age.
65
183
Hansen, Claire. 2020, June 8. “It’s Official: U.S. Economy Entered a Recession in February.”
https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-06-08/coronavirus-pandemic-officially-sent-us-
economy-into-a-recession-in-february.
184
Powell, Jerome H. 2020, August 27. “New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm.
185
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Effective Federal Funds Rate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS.
186
Powell, Jerome H. 2020, August 27. “New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm.
187
Center for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020, November 20. “CDC COVID Data Tracker.”
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days.
188
Falk, Gene, et al. 2020, November 6. “Unemployment Rates during the COVID-19 Pandemic: In brief.”
Congressional Research Service. R46554. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R46554.pdf.
189
Crimmins, Eileen M., Mark D. Hayward, and Teresa E. Seeman. 2004. “Race/Ethnicity, Socioeconomic Status,
and Health.” National Research Council (US) Panel on Race, Ethnicity, and Health Later in Life.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK25526/.
190
Garg, Shikha, et al. 2020. “Hospitalization Rates and Characteristics of Patients Hospitalized with Laboratory-
Confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019 — COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1–30, 2020.” MMWR Morbidity and
Mortality Weekly Report 2020; 69: 458–464. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6915e3,
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm.
191
Center for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020, August 8. “COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalization, and Death by
Race/Ethnicity.” https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-
death-by-race-ethnicity.html.
192
Tolbert, Jennifer, Kendal Orgera, and Anthony Damico. 2020, February 10. “Key Factsfacts about the Uninsured
Population.” The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. https://www.kff.org/uninsured/issue-brief/key-facts-about-the-
uninsured-population/; U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. “Universal Paid Sick Leave is Essential for
Combating the Pandemic and Protecting the Economy.” https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/013a1720-
1cf4-4fcd-baf1-1874fad51dcf/paid-sick-leave-the-coronavirus-final.pdf.
193
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2019, September 24. “Table 1. Workers Who Could Work at Home, Did Work at
Home, and Were Paid for Work at Home, by Selected Characteristics, Averages for the Period 2017-2018.”
www.bls.gov/news.release/flex2.t01.htm.
194
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020. “Employed Persons by Occupation, Race, Hispanic or Hispanic Ethnicity, and
Sex.” www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat10.htm.
195
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020. “Employed Persons by Detailed Occupation, Sex, Race, and Hispanic or
Hispanic Ethnicity.” www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11.htm.
196
Blau, Francine D., Josefine Koebe, and Pamela A. Meyerhofer. 2020. “Who are the Essential and Frontline
Workers?” NBER Working Paper, (No. w27791).
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27791/w27791.pdf.
197
Angelucci, Manuela, et al. 2020. “Remote Work and the Heterogeneous Impact of Covid-19 on Employment and
Health.” NBER Working Paper, (No. w27749).
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27749/w27749.pdf.
198
Kerwin, Donald, et al. 2020. “US Foreign-Born Essential Workers by Status and State, and the Global
Pandemic.” Center for Migration Studies (CMS). https://cmsny.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/US-Essential-
Workers-Printable.pdf. http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2331502419894286.
199
Census Bureau. 2020. “Foreign Born: 2019 Current Population Survey Detailed Tables.” Table 1.8. Industry of
Employed Civilian Workers 16 Years and Over by Sex, Nativity, and U.S. Citizenship Status: 2019. Accessed June
14, 2020. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2019/demo/foreign-born/cps-2019.html.
200
Pitts, Steven C. 2020, April 10. “Black Workers and the Public Sector.” Center for Labor Research and
Education. http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/black-workers-and-the-public-sector/.
201
Levenson, Michael. 2020, April 4. “11 Days After Fuming About a Coughing Passenger, a Bus Driver Died
From the Coronavirus.” The New York Times. www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/detroit-bus-driver-
coronavirus.html; O'Kane, Caitlin. 2020, April 15. “27-Year-Old Grocery Store Clerk Kept Working Because She
66
Wanted to Help People. Then She Died from Coronavirus.” CBS News. www.cbsnews.com/news/grocery-store-
worker-leilani-jordan-died-coroanvirus-kept-working-wanted-to-help-people/.
202
Tikkanen, Roosa, and Melinda K. Abrams. 2020, January 30. “U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective, 2019:
Higher Spending, Worse Outcomes?” https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2020/jan/us-
health-care-global-perspective-2019.
203
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2019, May. “Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S.
Households in 2018.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2018-report-economic-well-being-us-
households-201905.pdf.
204
Smalligan, Jack, and Stipica Mudrazija. 2019, July 31. “Many Workers Who Experience a New Health Shock
Leave the Workforce and Receive No Income Support.” https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/many-workers-who-
experience-new-health-shock-leave-workforce-and-receive-no-income-support.
205
Whyte, Liz E., and Chris Zubak-Skees. 2020, April 1. “Underlying Health Disparities Could Mean Coronavirus
Hits Some Communities Harder.” https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/01/824874977/underlying-
health-disparities-could-mean-coronavirus-hits-some-communities-harde.
206
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, May 8. “Employment situation news release – April
2020.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_05082020.htm.
207
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, May 13. “Unemployment rate rises to record high 14.7 percent in April 2020”.
The Economics Daily. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/unemployment-rate-rises-to-record-high-14-point-7-
percent-in-april-2020.htm.
208
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, December 4. “Employment situation news release – November
2020.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_05082020.htm.
209
Ajilore, Olugbenga. 2020, September 28. “The Persistent Black-White Unemployment Gap Is Built Into the
Labor Market.” https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-
white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/.
210
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2020, December 4. Labor Force
Participation Rate - Black or African American. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300006; Federal Reserve
Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2020, December 4. Labor Force Participation Rate - White.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300003.
211
Gould, Elise. 2019, February 20. “State of Working America Wages 2018: Wage inequality marches on — and is
even threatening data reliability.” https://www.epi.org/publication/state-of-american-wages-2018/.
212
Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 2020. “Characteristics of minimum wage workers, 2019.”
https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2019/pdf/home.pdf.
213
Wilson, Valerie. February 13, 2019. “The Raise the Wage Act of 2019 Would Give Black Workers a Much-
Needed Boost in Pay.” Economic Policy Institute. https://www.epi.org/publication/the-raise-the-wage-act-of-2019-
would-give-black-workers-a-much-needed-boost-in-pay/.
214
Williams, Jhacova, and Valerie Wilson. 2019, August 27. “Black Workers Endure Persistent Racial Disparities in
Employment Outcomes.” Economic Policy Institute. https://www.epi.org/publication/labor-day-2019-racial-
disparities-in-employment/.
215
Census Bureau. 2019, August 27. “Historical Poverty Table 2: Poverty Status of People by Family Relationship,
Race, and Hispanic Origin - 1959 to 2019.” https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-
poverty/historical-poverty-people.html.
216
Census Bureau. 2019. “Historical Poverty Table 23: Poverty Status of People by Family Relationship, Age, Race,
and Hispanic Origin - 1959 to 2018.” https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-
poverty/historical-poverty-people.html.
217
Sullivan, Laura, et al. 2019, September. “Stalling Dreams: How Student Debt is Disrupting Life Chances and
Widening the Racial Wealth Gap.” https://www.insidehighered.com/sites/default/server_files/media/Stalling
Dreams.pdf.
218
Census Bureau. 2020. “Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, Table 16.”
https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html.
219
National Low Income Housing Coalition. 2013, August 30. “Report Shows African Americans Lost Half Their
Wealth Due to Housing Crisis and Unemployment.” https://nlihc.org/resource/report-shows-african-americans-lost-
half-their-wealth-due-housing-crisis-and-unemployment.
67
220
Perry, Andre. M. 2019, June 20. “Know Your Price: Valuing Black Lives and Property in America’s Black
Cities. Brookings Institution Press.” https://www.congress.gov/116/meeting/house/109685/witnesses/HHRG-116-
BA04-Wstate-PerryA-20190620.pdf.
221
Rothstein, R. 2017, May. The Color of Law: A forgotten history of how our government segregated America.
Liveright Publishing.
222
Lee, Trymaine. 2019, August 14. “How America’s Vast Racial Wealth Gap Grew: By Plunder.” The New York
Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/14/magazine/racial-wealth-gap.html.
223
Darity Jr, William, Darrick Hamilton, et al. 2018. “What We Get Wrong About Closing the Racial Wealth Gap.”
Samuel DuBois Cook Center on Social Equity and Insight Center for Community Economic Development.
http://narrowthegap.org/images/documents/Wealth-Gap---FINAL-COMPLETE-REPORT.pdf.
224
APM Research Lab staff. “COVID-19 Deaths Analyzed by Race and Ethnicity.” APM Research Lab.
www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race.
225
Census Bureau. 2020, October 7. “Week 15 Household Pulse Survey: September 16-September 28.” Household
Spending Table 1. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/demo/hhp/hhp15.html; JEC Democratic staff
calculation includes people reporting that it has been “very difficult” or “somewhat difficult” to pay for usual
household expenses.
226
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020, November 30. “Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19):
Hospitalization and Death by Race/Ethnicity.” https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-
data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html.
227
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020, December 2. “Distribution of COVID-19 Deaths and
Populations, by Jurisdiction, Age, and Race and Hispanic Origin.” https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Distribution-of-
COVID-19-deaths-and-populations-by/jwta-jxbg/.
228
Department of Agriculture. 2020. “USDA ERS - Key Statistics and Graphics.”
https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/food-security-in-the-us/key-statistics-graphics.aspx;
Schanzenbach, Diane Whitmore, and Abigail A. Pitts. 2020. “Racial Disparities in Food Insecurity Persist.” Institute
for Policy Research, Northwestern University. https://www.ipr.northwestern.edu/news/2020/food-insecurity-by-
race-ethnicity.html.
229
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. 2020, August 12. “Tracking the COVID-19 Recession’s Effects on Food,
Housing, and Employment Hardships.” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/tracking-the-covid-19-recessions-effects-on-food-housing-
and.
230
Wolfe, Julia J. 2020. “Domestic Workers Are at Risk During the Coronavirus Crisis.” Economic Policy Institute.
https://www.epi.org/blog/domestic-workers-are-at-risk-during-the-coronavirus-crisis-data-show-most-domestic-
workers-are-black-hispanic-or-asian-women/.
231
Karpman, Michael, Dulce M. D. Gonzalez, and Genevieve M. Kenney. 2020. “Parents Are Struggling to Provide
for Their Families during the Pandemic.” Urban Institute. https://www.urban.org/research/publication/parents-are-
struggling-provide-their-families-during-pandemic.
232
Census Bureau. 2019, August 27. “Historical Income Tables: People.” Table P-36.
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-people.html.
233
The Federal Reserve Board. 2020, September 28. “Disparities in Wealth by Race and Ethnicity in the 2019
Survey of Consumer Finances.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/disparities-in-wealth-by-
race-and-ethnicity-in-the-2019-survey-of-consumer-finances-20200928.htm.
234
Federal Reserve. 2016. “2016 SCF Chartbook.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/files/BulletinCharts.pdf;
Department of Commerce. 2019. “Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Homeownership, Third Quarter 2019.”
https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf.
235
Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. 2018, June 4. “Renter Cost Burdens by Race and Ethnicity.”
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/ARH_2017_cost_burdens_by_race.
236
Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. 2018, June 4. “Renter Cost Burdens by Race and Ethnicity.”
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/ARH_2017_cost_burdens_by_race.
237
Salud America. 2019. “The State of Hispanic Housing.”. https://salud-america.org/the-state-of-Hispanic-housing-
transportationgreenspace-research/.
68
238
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020. “Employed Persons by Detailed Occupation, Sex, Race, and Hispanic or
Hispanic Ethnicity.” https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11.htm.
239
Apaam, Gerald G., et al. 2018. “2017 FDIC National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households.”
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. https://www.fdic.gov/householdsurvey/2017/2017report.pdf.
240
The Pew Charitable Trusts. 2012. “Payday Lending in America: Who Borrows, Where They Borrow, and Why.”
https://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/uploadedfiles/pcs_assets/2012/pewpaydaylendingreportpdf.pdf.
241
Census Bureau. 2019. “Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2018.” HIC-9. Population without Health
Insurance Coverage by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2008 to 2019.
https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-267.html.
242
Keisler-Starkey, Katherine, K. and Lisa N. Bunch. 2020. “Health Insurance Coverage in the United States:
2019,” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-271.html; The 2020 surveys conducted by the
U.S. Census Bureau for reports of 2019 have a decreased response rate. The lower response rate may affect the
results despite the statistical methods used to adjust the survey data (according to the variances in response rate
patterns). For this reason, data for 2018 are also used in this report. Rothbaum, Jonatham. 2020, September 15.
“How Does the Pandemic Affect Survey Response: Using Administrative Data to Evaluate Nonresponse in the
Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement.” Census Bureau.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/research-matters/2020/09/pandemic-affect-survey-response.html;
Berchick, Edward R., Jessica C. Barnett, and Rachel D. Upton. 2019, November 8. “Health Insurance Coverage in
the United States: 2018.” Census Bureau; https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-267.html.
243
Census Bureau. 2019. “Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2018.”
https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-267.html.
244
Bunis, Dena. September 18, 2020. “Minorities’ Employer-Based Health Coverage at Risk.” AARP, September
18, 2020. http://www.aarp.org/health/health-insurance/info-2020/health-insurance-covid-minorities.html.
245
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. “Universal Paid Sick Leave is Essential for Combating the Pandemic
and Protecting the Economy.” https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/013a1720-1cf4-4fcd-baf1-
1874fad51dcf/paid-sick-leave-the-coronavirus-final.pdf.
246
In this report, paid sick leave is defined as short-term leave intended for short-term or limited periods of illness,
which also is commonly described as paid sick time or paid sick days. Unless otherwise noted, the data included
throughout this report do not describe long-term leave or family and medical leave. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020,
September 24. “Employee Benefits in the United States: March 2020.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ebs2.pdf.
247
Long, Heather. 2020, July 3. “The big factor holding back the U.S. economic recovery: Child care.” The
Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/03/big-factor-holding-back-us-economic-
recovery-child-care/.
248
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Labor Force Participation Rate – Women.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002; Andrew, Audrey. 2020, May 15. “The Coronavirus Recession is a
‘She-cession.’” Institute for Women’s Policy Research. https://iwpr.org/media/press-hits/the-coronavirus-recession-
is-a-she-cession/.
249
U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. “We Need to Save Child Care Before It’s Too Late.”
https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/849b8d0e-3809-4e12-b77c-1cb498b9525b/child-care-final-
9.23.2020.pdf.
250
National Center for Health Statistics. “Household Pulse Survey: Anxiety and Depression.” Symptoms of Anxiety
or Depression Based on Reported Frequency of Symptoms During Last 7 Days, Nov. 11-Nov. 23.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/mental-health.htm.
251
Czeisler, Mark É., et al. 2020, August 14. “Mental Health, Substance Use, and Suicidal Ideation During the
COVID-19 Pandemic — United States, June 24–30, 2020.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Morbidity
and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm.
252
McNicholas, Celine, and Margaret Poydock. 2020, April 14. “The Trump administration has weakened crucial
worker protections needed to combat the coronavirus.” Economic Policy Institute. https://www.epi.org/blog/the-
trump-administration-has-weakened-crucial-worker-protections-needed-to-combat-the-coronavirus-agencies-tasked-
with-protecting-workers-have-put-them-in-danger/; Hamm, Katie, Seth Hanlon, and Colin Seeberger. 2020,
September 14. “The Truth About President Trump’s Track Record on Child Care.” Center for American Progress.
69
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/early-childhood/news/2020/09/14/490332/truth-president-trumps-track-
record-child-care/.
253
Chotiner, Isaac. 2020, April 16. “What Have Epidemiologists Learned About the Coronavirus?” The New Yorker.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/what-have-epidemiologists-learned-about-the-coronavirus.
254
Economic Strategy Group. 2020, March 25. “Economic Strategy Group Statement on COVID-19 Pandemic and
Economic Crisis.” https://economicstrategygroup.org/resource/economic-strategy-group-statement-covid19/.
255
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, September 24. “Employee Benefits in the United States: March 2020.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ebs2.pdf.
256
Drago, Robert, and Kevin Miller. 2010, January 31. “Sick at Work: Infected Employees in the Workplace During
the H1N1 Pandemic.” Institute for Women’s Policy Research. https://iwpr.org/iwpr-general/sick-at-work-infected-
employees-in-the-workplace-during-the-h1n1-pandemic/.
257
Department of Labor. “Families First Coronavirus Response Act: Employee Paid Leave Rights.”
https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/pandemic/ffcra-employee-paid-leave.
258
Cochrane, Emily, Claire Cain Miller, and Jim Tankersley. 2020, April 2. “Trump Administration Scales Back
Paid Leave in Coronavirus Relief Law.” The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/coronavirus-paid-leave.html.
259
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, September 24. “Employee Benefits in the United States: March 2020.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ebs2.pdf.
260
Rho, Hye Jin, Shawn Fremstad, and Jared Gaby-Biegel. 2020, March. “Contagion Nation 2020: United States
Still the Only Wealthy Nation without Paid Sick Leave.” Center for Economic and Policy Research.
https://cepr.net/report/contagion-nation-2020-united-states-still-the-only-wealthy-nation-without-paid-sick-leave/.
261
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, September 24. “Employee Benefits in the United States: March 2020.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ebs2.pdf.
262
JEC Democratic staff calculation. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics.
263
Drago, Robert, and Kevin Miller. 2010, January 31. Sick at work: Infected employees in the workplace during the
H1N1 pandemic. Institute for Women's Policy Research. https://iwpr.org/publications/sick-at-work-infected-
employees-in-the-workplace-during-the-h1n1-pandemic/.
264
Kumar, Supriya, et al. 2012. The impact of workplace policies and other social factors on self-reported influenza-
like illness incidence during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. American Journal of Public Health, 102(1), 134-140.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22095353/.
265
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2019, December. “Employer costs for employee compensation - December 2019.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecec.pdf.
266
Asfaw, Abay, Roger Rosa, and Regina Pana-Cryan. 2017, September. “Potential economic benefits of paid sick
leave in reducing absenteeism related to the spread of influenza-like illness.” Journal of Occupational and
Environmental Medicine, 59(9), 822-829.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5649342/pdf/nihms910819.pdf.
267
Maestas, Nicole, Kathleen J. Mullen, and Stephanie Rennane. 2018. “Absenteeism and Presenteeism Among
American Workers.” National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/2018drc/summaries/1.1-
Maestas,%20Mullen,%20Rennane.pdf.
268
Asfaw, Abay, Regina Pana-Cryan, and Roger Rosa. 2012. “Paid sick leave and Nonfatal occupational
injuries.” American Journal of Public Health, 102(9), e59-
e64. https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2011.300482?journalCode=ajph&.
269
Romich, Jennifer, et al. 2014, April 23. "Implementation and early outcomes of the city of Seattle paid sick and
safe time ordinance." University of Washington Publication.
http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/CityAuditor/auditreports/PSSTOUWReportwAppendices.pdf;
Drago, Robert, and Vicky Lovell. 2011, February. "San Francisco’s paid sick leave ordinance: outcomes for
employers and employees." Institute for Women's Policy Research.
https://www.portlandmercury.com/images/blogimages/2013/04/01/1364842926-a138_edited.pdf; Appelbaum,
Eileen, and Ruth Milkman. 2016, September. "No big deal: the impact of New York City’s paid sick days law on
employers." Center for Economic and Policy Research. https://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/nyc-paid-sick-days-
2016-09.pdf.
70
270
Pichler, Stefan, and Nicolas Ziebarth. 2018. “Labor market effects of U.S. sick pay mandates.”
https://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1311&context=up_workingpapers.
271
Cochrane, Emily, Claire Cain Miller, and Jim Tankersley. 2020, April 2. “Trump Administration Scales Back
Paid Leave in Coronavirus Relief Law.” The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/coronavirus-paid-leave.html.
272
116th Congress. 2020, May 21. H.R.6800: The Heroes Act. Congress.gov. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-
congress/house-bill/6800.
273
116th Congress. 2020, May 21. H.R.6800: The Heroes Act. Congress.gov. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-
congress/house-bill/6800.
274
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. All Employees, Child Day Care Services.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6562440001.
275
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020, December 4. “The Employment Situation – November 2020.”
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm.
276
Becker, Amanda. 2020, June 22. “Middle-income and rural families disproportionately grapple with child-care
deserts, new analysis shows.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/22/middle-
income-rural-families-disproportionately-grapple-with-child-care-deserts-new-analysis-shows/; Center for American
Progress. “An Open Letter From Economists in Support of Child Care Relief.”
https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/2020/06/18140211/Economists-letter.pdf.
277
OECD Family Database. 2019, February 4. PF3.4: Child care support.
http://www.oecd.org/els/family/database.htm.
278
Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics. CPI-U: Day Care and Preschool, Seasonally Adjusted.
279
OECD Family Database. 2019, February 4. PF3.1: Public spending on early childhood education and care.
http://www.oecd.org/els/family/database.htm.
280
Penn, Helen. 2017, September. “Report for SOW on the Financing of Early Childhood Education and Care in
Europe, and, in particular, on the Training and Remuneration of Childcare Workers and its Costs.” National
Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
https://sites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/dbassesite/documents/webpage/dbasse_186435.pdf.
281
Grossman, Allyson Sherman. 1981, May. “Working mothers and their children.” Monthly Labor Review. Bureau
of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1981/05/rpt3full.pdf.
282
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Labor Force Participation Rate – Women.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002.
283
OECD Economics Department. 2004, May. “Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main
Determinants in OECD Countries.” http://www.oecd.org/social/labour/31743836.pdf.
284
Malik, Rasheed. 2018, September 26. “The Effects of Universal Preschool in Washington, D.C.” Center for
American Progress. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/early-childhood/reports/2018/09/26/458208/effects-
universal-preschool-washington-d-c/.
285
Bivens, Josh, et al. 2016, April 6. “It’s time for an ambitious national investment in America’s children.”
Economic Policy Institute. https://files.epi.org/uploads/EPI-Its-time-for-an-ambitious-national-investment-in-
Americas-children.pdf.
286
Tedeschi, Ernie. 2020, October 29. “The Mystery of How Many Mothers Have Left Work Because of School
Closings.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/upshot/mothers-leaving-jobs-
pandemic.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur.
287
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Women Employees-To-All Employees
Ratio: Total Nonfarm. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0000000039.
288
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Labor Force Participation Rate – Women.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002.
289
Rolnick, Arthur J., and Rob Grunewald. 2008. “Early Education’s Big Dividends: The Better Public Investment.”
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. https://www.bostonfed.org/-
/media/Documents/cb/PDF/Rolnick_early_education_pays.pdf.
290
Bureau of Labor Statistics. “The Employment Situation – March 2020.” Department of Labor. April 3, 2020.
https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/economicdata/empsit_04032020.pdf.
71
291
Stanton, Zack. 2020, July 23. “How the Child Care Crisis Will Distort the Economy for a Generation.” Politico.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/23/child-care-crisis-pandemic-economy-impact-women-380412.
292
The Center for Law and Social Policy. “Overview: Emergency Paid Sick & Expanded Family Leave.”
https://www.clasp.org/sites/default/files/publications/2020/04/FFCRA%20Unbranded%20Fact%20Sheet%204.29.2
0.pdf.
293
Adamcyzk, Alicia. 2020, August 13. “It’s Not Just the Extra $600 — Millions Workers Could Exhaust All Their
Jobless Benefits by January.” CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/millions-could-exhaust-all-of-their-jobless-
benefits-by-january.html.
294
Census Bureau. 2020, October. “Source of the Data and Accuracy of the Estimates for the 2020 Household Pulse
Survey – Phase 2.” https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/technical-
documentation/hhp/Phase2_Source_and_Accuracy_Week_15.pdf.
295
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020, August. “Mental Health, Substance Use, and Suicidal Ideation
During the COVID-19 Pandemic — United States, June 24–30, 2020.”
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm?s_cid=mm6932a1_w; National Institute of Mental
Health. 2020, September. “Suicide.” https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide.shtml.
296
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020, August. “Mental Health, Substance Use, and Suicidal Ideation
During the COVID-19 Pandemic — United States, June 24–30, 2020,” August.”
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm?s_cid=mm6932a1_w.
297
Paz, Christian. 2020, November 2. “All the President’s Lies About the Coronavirus.” The Atlantic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/trumps-lies-about-coronavirus/608647/; Kessler, Glenn. 2020,
July 8“Trump’s claim that 99 percent of coronavirus cases are ‘totally harmless.’” The Washington Post,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/07/08/trumps-claim-that-99-percent-covid-9-cases-are-totally-
harmless/.
298
Kamisar, Ben, and Melissa Holzberg. 2020, October 6. “Poll: Majority Still Fears Virus Exposure as Trump Says
Not to ‘Be Afraid.'” NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/poll-majority-still-fears-virus-
exposure-trump-says-not-be-n1242195.
299
Leigh Hunt, N., et al. 2017, November. “An Overview of Systematic Reviews on the public health Public Health
Consequences of social Isolation and Loneliness,” Public Health.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0033350617302731.
300
Census Bureau. 2020, October 7. “Week 15 Household Pulse Survey: September 16-September 28.” Household
Spending Table 1. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/demo/hhp/hhp15.html. JEC Democratic staff
calculation includes people reporting that it has been “very difficult” or “somewhat difficult” to pay for usual
household expenses.
301
Census Bureau. 2020, October 7. “Week 15 Household Pulse Survey: September 16-September 28.” Food Table
2b. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/demo/hhp/hhp15.html. JEC Democratic staff calculation includes
people reporting not having enough food to eat “sometimes” and “often.”
302
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Mental Health: Household Pulse Survey.”
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/mental-health.htm.
303
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Mental Health: Household Pulse Survey.”
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/mental-health.htm.
304
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020, August. “Mental Health, Substance Use, and Suicidal Ideation
During the COVID-19 Pandemic — United States, June 24–30, 2020.”
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm?s_cid=mm6932a1_w.
305
Census Bureau. 2020, October 7. “Week 15 Household Pulse Survey: September 16-September 28.” Household
Spending Table 1. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/demo/hhp/hhp15.html. JEC Democratic staff
calculation includes people reporting that it has been “very difficult” or “somewhat difficult” to pay for usual
household expenses.
306
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Mental Health: Household Pulse Survey.”
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/mental-health.htm.
Hispanic and Hispanic American are used in this report. Hispanic is often used interchangeably with the Spanish-
language term, Latino and the gender-neutral term, Latinx. In historical data series from official statistical agencies,
72
sources often use the term Hispanic. Other and more recent sources may use Latino, Latinx or other terms for
Americans of Latin American or Spanish descent.
Per the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), “Hispanic or Latino” refers to “a person of Cuban, Mexican,
Puerto Rican, Cuban, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race.” 306 Some
others use the term “Latino” to include both Spanish and non-Spanish speaking countries of Latin America, while
some use “Hispanic” only to refer to those of Spanish origin or descent. Since 2000, the U.S. decennial census has
asked all Americans if they are of Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin. 306 In most federal data sources, both
“Hispanic” and “Latino” are inclusive of Americans that self-report as “Hispanic,” “Latino” or “Spanish origin.”
“Latino” is a universal or masculine identifier; “Latina” is a feminine identifier.
307
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020, August. “Mental Health, Substance Use, and Suicidal Ideation
During the COVID-19 Pandemic — United States, June 24–30, 2020.”
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm?s_cid=mm6932a1_w.
308
Forbes, Miriam K., and Robert F. Krueger. 2019. “The Great Recession and Mental Health in the United States.”
Clinical Psychology Science. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2167702619859337.
309
Kessler, Ronald, et al. 2008. “Trends in Mental Illness and Suicidality after Hurricane Katrina.” Molecular
Psychiatry. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2556982/.
310
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020, August. “Mental Health, Substance Use, and Suicidal Ideation
During the COVID-19 Pandemic — United States, June 24–30, 2020.”
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm?s_cid=mm6932a1_w.
311
Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation. “Total Deaths: United States of America.”
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend.
312
Siegel, Rachel. 2020, September 16. “The Federal Reserve Projects the Economy to Improve Next Year, with
Unemployment Falling to 5.5% by the End of 2021.” The Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/16/fed-unemployment-september/.
313
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Not in Labor Force.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS15000000.
314
“The most recent week of the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey” refers to Week 19. Census Bureau.
Household Pulse Survey. https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/hhp/#/?measures=EXR and
https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/hhp/#/?measures=EVR and https://www.census.gov/data-
tools/demo/hhp/#/?measures=FJR.
315
Gonzales, Dulce, Poonam Gupta, and Elaine Waxman. 2020. “Six Months into the Pandemic, 40 Percent of
Parents with Young Children Have Experienced Economic Fallout.” Urban Institute.
https://www.urban.org/research/publication/six-months-pandemic-40-percent-parents-young-children-have-
experienced-economic-fallout.
316
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. 2020. “Tracking the COVID-19 Recession’s Effects on Food, Housing
and Employment Hardships.” https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/tracking-the-covid-19-
recessions-effects-on-food-housing-and.
317
Ahmann, Tim, and Nandita Bose. 2020, December 1. “Treasury Nominee Yellen Warns of “Self-reinforcing”
U.S. Downturn, Vows to Aid Needy.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-coronavirus/treasury-
nominee-yellen-warns-of-self-reinforcing-us-downturn-vows-to-aid-needy-idUSKBN28B62R.
File and source
- File
- jec-response-to-the-2020-erp-dem-only-normal-format-376dfb6aa3c2.pdf
- Size
- 1,596,764 bytes
- SHA-256
- 376dfb6aa3c21bc7d06900275dad79b8a5c187db9df10113c2e8d6791b1f6269
- Original
- www.jec.senate.gov