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                United States Government Accountability Office
                Report to Congressional Committees




                COVID RELIEF
May 2023




                Fraud Schemes and
                Indicators in SBA
                Pandemic Programs




GAO-23-105331
                                             May 2023

                                             COVID RELIEF
                                             Fraud Schemes and Indicators in SBA Pandemic
                                             Programs
Highlights of GAO-23-105331, a report to
congressional committees




Why GAO Did This Study                      What GAO Found
Congress established four programs to       The Small Business Administration (SBA) moved quickly under challenging
support small businesses during the         circumstances to develop and launch pandemic relief programs to help small
pandemic: PPP, COVID-19 EIDL,               businesses. These programs, including the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)
Restaurant Revitalization Fund, and         and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL), totaled over
Shuttered Venue Operators Grant.            $1 trillion and assisted more than 10 million small businesses. However, in some
Widely reported incidents of fraud          instances relief funds went to those who sought to defraud the government. As
raised questions about SBA’s                schemes emerged, SBA adapted its fraud risk management approach and added
management of these programs. For           controls to help prevent, detect, and respond to fraud.
this and other reasons, GAO added
small business emergency loans to its       GAO analyzed 330 PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud cases. Federal prosecutors
High Risk Program in 2021.                  across the United States filed bank fraud, wire fraud, money laundering, identity
The CARES Act includes a provision
                                            theft, and other charges against 524 individuals associated with these cases. This
for GAO to monitor COVID-19                 analysis is based on fraud cases publicly announced by the Department of Justice
pandemic relief funds. This report          (DOJ) as of December 2021.
(1) analyzes fraud cases charged by
                                            Cases Charged by the Department of Justice Involving Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and
DOJ involving PPP and COVID-19              COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Fraud, as of December 31, 2021
EIDL to understand fraud schemes and
impacts, (2) provides the results of
select data analyses regarding fraud
indicators in PPP and COVID-19 EIDL,
and (3) identifies opportunities for SBA
to enhance its data analytics.
GAO analyzed DOJ press releases
and court documents related to PPP
and COVID-19 EIDL cases publicly
announced as of December 2021 for
fraud schemes and impacts. GAO
analyzed 2020 and 2021 PPP and
COVID-19 EIDL data, comparing these
data to NDNH wage data to identify the
presence of fraud indicators. GAO also
evaluated SBA’s data analytic efforts
against leading practices.

What GAO Recommends
GAO recommends that SBA
(1) ensures it has and utilizes
mechanisms to facilitate cross-program      In those cases, DOJ charged individuals with
data analytics and (2) identifies           • misrepresenting eligibility, falsifying documents, using stolen identities, and
external data sources that could aid in     • deliberately exploiting the programs by conspiring with each other, sharing
fraud prevention and detection and              knowledge on how to circumvent controls, and obtaining kickbacks.
develop a plan to obtain access to          For the 155 of the 330 cases that reached conclusion through guilty pleas or
those sources. SBA concurred with           convictions, GAO calculated about $188 million in direct financial losses. Across
both recommendations.
                                            these cases, as of December 2021, 94 individuals had been sentenced to an
View GAO-23-105331. For more information,   average of about 37 months in prison. The number of cases will continue to grow.
contact Johana Ayers at (202) 512-6722 or   As of January 2023, the SBA Office of Inspector General (OIG) had 536 ongoing
ayersj@gao.gov.                             investigations, and the statute of limitations has been extended to 10 years to
                                            prosecute individuals who committed PPP and COVID-19 EIDL-related fraud.
                                                                                        United States Government Accountability Office
Highlights of GAO-23-105331 (Continued)

Select GAO analyses of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL data, including comparisons with National Directory of New Hires
(NDNH) wage data, identified over 3.7 million unique recipients with fraud indicators out of a total of 13.4 million (see
figure). Fraud indicators can be used to identify potential fraud and assess fraud risk. They are not proof of fraud.
Additional review, investigation, and adjudication is needed to determine if fraud exists. To that end, GAO referred the
unique recipients with fraud indicators it identified to the SBA OIG for further review and investigation. The unique
recipients identified include potentially non-existent businesses or businesses that may have misrepresented employee
counts to obtain more funds. However, it is possible that the analysis identified non-fraudulent recipients with data
discrepancies consistent with an indicator. While SBA has conducted its own analyses to identify recipients with fraud
indicators, it does not have access to the NDNH database and could not have performed the same analyses as GAO.
Unique Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Recipients with Fraud Indicators




SBA has employed data analytics to enhance fraud prevention and detection. For example, the use of analytics
contributed to SBA determining that some PPP borrowers were ineligible for loan amounts or used them for unauthorized
purposes, resulting in $4.7 billion in loan proceeds not being forgiven. In addition, SBA referred over 669,000 potentially
fraudulent PPP and COVID-19 EIDL loans to the SBA OIG for investigation after using data analytics and conducting
manual reviews. SBA enhanced its analytic capabilities during the pandemic and has recognized that it would benefit from
further development of its data analytics program. SBA has opportunities to continue to improve its ability to prevent and
detect potentially fraudulent transactions. For example, SBA did not fully leverage information to help identify applicants
who tried to defraud multiple pandemic relief programs. While it has access to multiple external data sources, SBA does
not have access to other external data sources that could aid in fraud detection and prevention. Leveraging information
across programs and obtaining access to external data are consistent with leading fraud risk management practices. SBA
has the opportunity to ensure that it fully leverages data across programs and accesses external data to the fullest extent
possible to mitigate the likelihood and impact of fraud. Obtaining such access could necessitate pursuing statutory
authority or entering into data-sharing agreements with other agencies to gain timely access to those sources.




                                                                            United States Government Accountability Office
Contents


Letter                                                                                        1
                       Background                                                             5
                       Analysis of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL Charges Illustrates Fraud
                         Schemes and Their Actual and Potential Impacts                     21
                       Our Analysis Reveals Millions of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
                         Recipients with Fraud Indicators, and Certain Lenders
                         Originated Higher Rates of Fraudulent PPP Loans                    44
                       Enhanced Data Analytics Can Help SBA Identify Potentially
                         Fraudulent Recipients                                              75
                       Conclusions                                                          79
                       Recommendations for Executive Action                                 80
                       Agency Comments and Our Evaluation                                   80

Appendix I             Objectives, Scope, and Methodology                                   91



Appendix II            Overview of SBA’s Fraud Risk Management Efforts
                       Implementing the Pandemic Relief Programs                           108



Appendix III           Prior GAO Recommendations to Address
                       Fraud Risks and SBA Actions                                         127



Appendix IV            Regression Analysis                                                 131



Appendix V             Comments from the Small Business Administration                     136



Appendix VI            GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments                               145



Related GAO Products                                                                       146




                       Page i                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Tables
          Table 1: Characteristics of Small Business Administration’s (SBA)
                  Pandemic Relief Programs                                           9
          Table 2: Financial Losses (in Millions of Dollars) in Paycheck
                  Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury
                  Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Based on Analysis of
                  Department of Justice Fraud Cases, as of December 31,
                  2021                                                             35
          Table 3: Non-Financial Impacts of Fraud in Paycheck Protection
                  Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster
                  Loan (COVID-19 EIDL)                                             36
          Table 4: Top Five Lenders by Number of Paycheck Protection
                  Program (PPP) Loans Associated with a Department of
                  Justice (DOJ) Fraud Case, as of December 31, 2021                69
          Table 5: Created Variables Used in the Regression Analysis of the
                  Small Business Administration (SBA) Paycheck Protection
                  Program Loans, Years 2020-2021                                  132
          Table 6: Variables Included in GAO Regression Models Using the
                  Small Business Administration (SBA) Paycheck Protection
                  Program Loans, Years 2020-2021                                  133
          Table 7: Associations of Logistic Regression Model Variables
                  Based on the Small Business Administration’s (SBA)
                  Paycheck Protection Program Loans, Years 2020-2021              135

Figures


          Figure 1: Illustrative Life Cycle of Fraudulent Paycheck Protection
                   Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster
                   Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Applications Involving Criminal
                   Cases                                                           14
          Figure 2: The Four Components of the Fraud Risk Management
                   Framework and Selected Leading Practices                        16
          Figure 3: Cases Charged by the Department of Justice Involving
                   Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19
                   Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Fraud,
                   as of December 31, 2021                                         23
          Figure 4: Ongoing and Closed Cases Involving Paycheck
                   Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic
                   Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Fraud, as of
                   December 31, 2021                                               24



          Page ii                                            GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Figure 5: Individuals and Businesses Associated with Paycheck
         Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic
         Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Fraud Cases, as
         of December 31, 2021                                         25
Figure 6: Types of Businesses Identified in Paycheck Protection
         Program and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan
         Fraud Cases, as of December 31, 2021                         26
Figure 7: Clusters of Related Cases Charged by the Department
         of Justice Associated with Paycheck Protection Program
         and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan Fraud, as
         of December 31, 2021                                         30
Figure 8: Number of Paycheck Protection Program and COVID-19
         Economic Injury Disaster Loan Cases Involving
         Department of Justice Charges of Asset
         Misappropriation, by Type of Ineligible Expense, as of
         December 31, 2021                                            38
Figure 9: Foreign Jurisdictions to Which Fraudsters Redirected
         Funds from Paycheck Protection Program and COVID-19
         Economic Injury Disaster Loan, as of February 2023           39
Figure 10: Sentencing Ranges for Individuals Sentenced to
         Prison, Probation, and Supervised Release for Crimes
         Involving Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and
         COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19
         EIDL), as of December 31, 2021                               43
Figure 11: Unique Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and
         COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19
         EIDL) Recipients with Fraud Indicators                       48
Figure 12: Example of Information Mismatch between Paycheck
         Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic
         Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Data                    68
Figure 13: Number of Suspicious Activity Reports Filed on
         Paycheck Protection Program Loans, by Month                  74
Figure 14: National Directory of New Hires (NDNH) and Small
         Business Administration (SBA) Pandemic Relief Data
         Obtained for GAO Analysis                                    97
Figure 15: Examples of Changes to Traditional Small Business
         Administration (SBA) Programs Made by the CARES Act         109
Figure 16: The Small Business Administration’s (SBA) Key Fraud
         Risk Management Activities Occurred after Most Program
         Funds Were Distributed                                      124




Page iii                                        GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Abbreviations

Board                      Fraud Risk Management Board
BSA/AML                    Bank Secrecy Act and related anti-money
                           laundering requirements
Council                    Fraud Risk Management Council
COVID-19 EIDL              COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan
DOJ                        Department of Justice
EIN                        employer identification number
FDIC                       Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Federal Reserve            Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
FinCEN                     Financial Crimes Enforcement Network
Fraud Risk                 A Framework for Managing Fraud Risks in Federal
  Framework                Programs
IP                         internet protocol
IPSFF                      International Public Sector Fraud Forum
IRS                        Internal Revenue Service
NDNH                       National Directory of New Hires
OIG                        Office of Inspector General
OMB                        Office of Management and Budget
PPP                        Paycheck Protection Program
PRAC                       Pandemic Response Accountability Committee
RRF                        Restaurant Revitalization Fund
SAR                        suspicious activity report
SBA                        Small Business Administration
SSN                        Social Security number
SVOG                       Shuttered Venue Operators Grant
tax ID                     taxpayer identification number
Treasury                   Department of the Treasury




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Page iv                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                       Letter




441 G St. N.W.
Washington, DC 20548




                       May 18, 2023

                       Congressional Committees

                       The COVID-19 pandemic created economic hardship for small
                       businesses across the U.S. economy. Businesses in the restaurant, live
                       performing arts, and entertainment industries were particularly hard hit.
                       To assist small businesses, Congress created programs through the
                       Small Business Administration (SBA) between March 2020 and March
                       2021 for pandemic relief. Specifically, the CARES Act and other laws
                       provided funding for the newly created Paycheck Protection Program
                       (PPP) and the COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19
                       EIDL) program, which were available to most small businesses; and the
                       Restaurant Revitalization Fund (RRF) and the Shuttered Venue
                       Operators Grant (SVOG), which targeted hard-hit industries. 1 The more
                       than $1 trillion in relief funds provided through these four programs
                       assisted more than 10 million small businesses affected by the pandemic.
                       However, in some instances these relief funds went to those who sought
                       to defraud the government.

                       We and others have raised questions about SBA’s management of fraud
                       risks in these programs. 2 Since June 2020, we have reported multiple
                       times on fraud schemes, risks, and indicators in SBA’s pandemic relief
                       programs. Additionally, in March 2021, we added emergency loans for
                       small businesses to GAO’s High Risk Program, in part because of the




                       1American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA), Pub. L. No. 117-2, 135 Stat. 4; Consolidated

                       Appropriations Act, 2021, Pub. L. No. 116-260, div. M and N, 134 Stat. 1182 (2020);
                       Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act, Pub. L. No. 116-139,
                       134 Stat. 620 (2020); CARES Act, Pub. L. No. 116-136, 134 Stat. 281 (2020).
                       2Fraud is the act of obtaining something of value through willful misrepresentation.

                       Whether an act is fraudulent is determined through the judicial or other adjudicative
                       system. When fraud risks can be identified and managed, fraud may be less likely to
                       occur.




                       Page 1                                                        GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
potential for fraud, significant risk to program integrity, and need for
improved program management and better oversight. 3

The CARES Act includes a provision for GAO to monitor and oversee the
federal government’s efforts to prepare for, respond to, and recover from
the COVID-19 pandemic. 4 This report (1) analyzes fraud cases charged
by the Department of Justice (DOJ) involving PPP and COVID-19 EIDL to
understand fraud schemes and impacts; (2) provides the results of select
data analyses to identify PPP and COVID-19 EIDL recipients with fraud
indicators, as well as fraud-related lender activity in PPP; and
(3) identifies opportunities for SBA to enhance its data analytics to
prevent and detect potential fraud. 5

For the first objective, we conducted a thematic analysis of criminal and
civil fraud cases involving PPP and COVID-19 EIDL charged by DOJ and
publicly announced as of December 31, 2021. 6 To identify cases, we
received DOJ press releases through a subscription to Westlaw (a legal

3The High Risk Program highlights federal programs and operations that we have

determined are in need of transformation, and also names federal programs and
operations that are vulnerable to waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement. GAO, High-
Risk Series: Dedicated Leadership Needed to Address Limited Progress in Most High-
Risk Areas, GAO-21-119SP (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 2, 2021) and High-Risk Series:
Efforts Made to Achieve Progress Need to Be Maintained and Expanded to Fully Address
All Areas, GAO-23-106203 (Washington, D.C.: Apr. 20, 2023).
4Pub. L. No. 116-136, § 19010(b), 134 Stat. 281, 580 (2020). All of GAO’s reports related

to the COVID-19 pandemic are available on GAO’s website at
https://www.gao.gov/coronavirus.
5Fraud indicators are characteristics and flags that serve as warning signs suggesting a

potential for fraudulent activity. Indicators can be used to identify potential fraud and
assess fraud risk but are not proof of fraud, which is determined through the judicial or
other adjudicative system.
6Fraud cases are those PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases that involve fraud-related

charges. Fraud-related charges include criminal fraud charges associated with PPP or
COVID-19 EIDL fraud schemes, such as bank fraud or wire fraud, as well as other
charges for crimes used to execute fraud schemes, such as money laundering or
conspiracy charges. Alternatively, DOJ can pursue civil remedies for suspected fraud
under the False Claims Act, 31 U.S.C. § 3729-3733 and the Financial Institutions Reform,
Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989, 12 U.S.C. § 1833a.

We selected December 31, 2021, as the ending point of our research because after
December 31, 2021, SBA stopped accepting COVID-19 EIDL applications (per
Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021). PPP closed in May 2021. We acknowledge that
DOJ has continued to bring charges involving PPP and COVID-19 EIDL since December
31, 2021, and that later cases may involve more complex fraud schemes that may take
longer to investigate and prosecute.




Page 2                                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
news service), conducted periodic checks of the Westlaw database, and
used other available sources, such as the DOJ Fraud Section website.
For identified cases, we obtained relevant court documents by searching
Public Access to Court Electronic Records. 7

Using case information identified in court documents on charged
individuals, fraud mechanisms, and loan amounts, among other things,
we conducted a thematic analysis using the GAO Conceptual Fraud
Model. 8 The model is organized as an ontology, which is an explicit
description of categories of federal fraud, their characteristics, and the
relationships among them. We structured and organized this thematic
analysis using WebProtégé, an ontology modeling tool. We then analyzed
the aggregate data to describe the characteristics and areas of impact of
PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud cases. Based on data and information
from these cases, we determined actual and potential financial impacts as
well as non-financial impacts.

For the purposes of our analysis, we considered DOJ cases as closed
when they reached conclusion through settlement, dismissal of charges,
a guilty plea, or a verdict reached at trial. 9 We considered cases as
ongoing when they had not reached a conclusion as of December 31,
2021. The cases are not generalizable to all fraud cases or all potential
fraud involving PPP and COVID-19 EIDL. From the identified cases, we
selected closed cases to provide illustrative examples of how fraud
occurred.

For the second objective, we analyzed PPP and COVID-19 EIDL loan-
and advance-level data to identify recipients with fraud indicators. This
included matching that data to quarterly wage data in the National
Directory of New Hires (NDNH) for quarter 4 of 2019 and quarters 1


7Public Access to Court Electronic Records is a service of the federal judiciary that

enables the public to search online for case information from U.S. district, bankruptcy, and
appellate courts. Federal court records available through this system include case
information (such as names of parties, proceedings, and documents filed) as well as
information on case status.
8GAO, GAO Fraud Ontology Version 1.0, published January 10, 2022.
https://gaoinnovations.gov/antifraud_resource/howfraudworks
9In criminal cases, after a finding of guilt, either through guilty plea or verdict, there is a

period of time before the defendant returns to court to be sentenced. Some of the cases
categorized as closed for our analysis had not yet completed the sentencing stage.




Page 3                                                             GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
through 3 of 2020. 10 By matching PPP and COVID-19 EIDL data to
NDNH wage data, we identified unique recipients with fraud indicators
associated with potential misrepresentations of business operating status,
employee counts, or payroll costs. We also reviewed the loan-level data
to determine whether applicants received multiple loans or advances, or if
loans were disbursed to multiple recipients using the same information.
Finally, we matched PPP data to COVID-19 EIDL data to identify unique
recipients who obtained funds from both programs, which was permitted,
but who (1) were associated with fraud indicators in both programs or
(2) provided different information to the two programs, which is a fraud
indicator. On the basis of our reliability assessment results, we
determined that the data were sufficiently reliable for the purposes of
matching and identifying discrepancies associated with fraud indicators.
The intent of our analyses was to understand the extent fraud indicators
existed, SBA’s exposure to fraud risk, and how some recipients may have
taken advantage of those risks. The results of our analyses, including the
identification of discrepancies associated with fraud indicators, should not
be interpreted as proof of fraud.

Additionally, we analyzed PPP lender origination of loans associated with
DOJ cases (identified in objective 1) as well as PPP fraud indicators
(identified in objective 2). Through this analysis, we identified the
characteristics of lenders with loans associated with DOJ cases or loans
that we flagged with fraud indicators. To determine the relevant
population of PPP loans, we matched businesses identified in DOJ cases
that received PPP loans with PPP loan-level data. Further, to provide
insight into associations among variables of lender and borrower
characteristics, we conducted logistic regressions to assess the statistical
significance of associations between fraud indicators, and lender and loan
characteristics with potentially fraudulent loans. A logistic regression
describes the relationship between a binary outcome variable—in this
case incidents of fraud and alleged fraud charged by DOJ—and select
factors of interest, such as loan- and lender-level characteristics and
select fraud indicators, while controlling for other factors.


10NDNH is a national repository of new hire, quarterly wage, and unemployment insurance
information reported by employers, states, and federal agencies. The NDNH is maintained
and used by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services for the federal child
support enforcement program, which assists states in locating parents and enforcing child
support orders. SBA does not have access to NDNH wage data. However, similar
information, such as number of employees and wages paid, can be found on the
employer’s federal tax return and other employer filings.




Page 4                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                           For the third objective, we evaluated SBA’s data analytic efforts for
                           opportunities to enhance fraud prevention and detection by reviewing
                           previous GAO reports, the results of our fraud indicator analysis, and SBA
                           planning documents. We assessed SBA’s efforts against the leading
                           practices identified in GAO’s Fraud Risk Framework. 11 For more
                           information about our scope and methodology, see appendix I.

                           We conducted this performance audit from July 2021 to May 2023 in
                           accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
                           Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain
                           sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our
                           findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that
                           the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and
                           conclusions based on our audit objectives.


Background
Four SBA Pandemic Relief   The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant effect on the nation and its
Programs                   economy. Stay-at-home orders, social distancing requirements, and
                           reduced consumer demand early in the pandemic caused both temporary
                           and permanent business closures, particularly among small businesses.
                           To help support small businesses, in March 2020, Congress passed the
                           CARES Act that, among other things, provided funds for two new SBA
                           pandemic relief programs. Specifically, it created PPP, which was
                           authorized under SBA’s existing 7(a) small business lending program. 12 It
                           also established a COVID-19 EIDL program partially based on an existing
                           SBA-administered program providing EIDL disaster loans. 13 Both PPP



                            GAO, A Framework for Managing Fraud Risks in Federal Programs, GAO-15-593SP
                           11

                           (Washington, D.C.: July 2015).

                            The 7(a) loan guarantee program provides small businesses access to capital that they
                           12

                           would not be able to access in the competitive market.
                           13EIDL, which is part of SBA’s Disaster Loan Program, provides low-interest loans to help

                           borrowers—small businesses and nonprofit organizations located in a disaster area—
                           meet obligations or pay ordinary and necessary operating expenses. In this report, we
                           refer to the Economic Injury Disaster Loan provisions of SBA’s Disaster Loan Program as
                           “traditional” EIDL and to the EIDL program designed to help small businesses recover
                           from the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic as COVID-19 EIDL. For more
                           information on SBA’s Disaster Loan Program, see GAO, Small Business Administration:
                           Disaster Loan Processing Was Timelier, but Planning Improvements and Pilot Program
                           Evaluation Needed, GAO-20-168 (Washington, D.C.: Feb. 7, 2020).




                           Page 5                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
and COVID-19 EIDL contained programmatic elements that were new
compared to the pre-pandemic programs.

PPP guaranteed over $800 billion to small businesses and nonprofits,
referred to collectively as “small businesses,” to help support payroll
costs, rent, utilities and other eligible operating costs during the
pandemic. Applicants could apply for

•    first draw loans in PPP Round 1 between April and August of 2020,
     and
•    first or second draw loans in PPP Round 2 between January and May
     2021. 14
PPP low-interest loans were fully SBA-guaranteed and made to recipients
through a network of participating lenders under program rules set by
Treasury and SBA’s Office of Capital Access. Under certain
circumstances, recipients are eligible for full loan forgiveness. For
example, to be eligible for full forgiveness, at least 60 percent of the loan
had to be used for payroll costs, with the remaining amount used for
eligible non-payroll costs, such as covered mortgage interest, rent, and
utility payments. 15

Participating PPP lenders included depository institutions (for example,
banks and credit unions) and non-depository lending institutions (for
example, SBA-certified development companies and state-regulated
financial companies). Existing 7(a) lenders were automatically allowed to
participate in PPP. 16 According to SBA and the Department of the
Treasury (Treasury) officials, they jointly approved certain new non-




 A borrower’s first PPP loan, which could be received in either 2020 or 2021 is referred to
14

as a “first draw loan.” Borrowers that received first draw loans could apply for a second
draw PPP loan in 2021, based on different eligibility requirements.
15SBA originally required borrowers to spend at least 75 percent of forgivable expenses on
payroll costs, but this requirement was modified by later legislation. Paycheck Protection
Program Flexibility Act of 2020, Pub. L. No. 116-142, § 3(b)(2)(B), 134 Stat. 641, 642
(2020).
16In an interim final rule published April 2, 2020, SBA announced that any federally insured
depository institution, credit union, or farm credit institution in good standing with its
regulator would automatically qualify to participate in PPP upon submission of SBA’s PPP
Lender Agreement. 85 Fed. Reg. 20,811 at 20,815 (Apr. 15, 2020).




Page 6                                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
federally regulated lenders 17 that had to attest they met Bank Secrecy Act
and related anti-money laundering requirements (BSA/AML). 18 SBA’s
requirements for lenders were limited to actions such as confirming
receipt of borrower certifications and supporting payroll documentation. 19

With regard to lender supervision, federally insured depository institutions
are generally supervised through a dual federal-state financial regulatory
system. Specifically, federal banking agencies examine their supervised
banks’ BSA/AML compliance programs as part of safety and soundness
examinations. 20 State regulators also supervise nonbank lenders, such as
financial technology companies and money transmitters, based on state
regulatory requirements.

COVID-19 EIDL provided over $355 billion to businesses from March
2020 to December 2021 to assist their recovery from the economic
effects of the pandemic. SBA managed the COVID-19 EIDL program
directly, initially led by its Office of Disaster Assistance and later by the
Office of Capital Access. 21 The program included two types of funding:
loans and grants, otherwise known as advances. Advances—new
programmatic elements in the COVID-19 EIDL—include EIDL advances
(in 2020) and targeted advances and supplemental targeted advances (in


 SBA and Treasury were jointly responsible for approving lenders new to SBA to issue
17

PPP loans. According to SBA officials, SBA approved new federally regulated lenders,
while new non-federally regulated and insured lenders required joint SBA and Treasury
approval.
18The Currency and Foreign Transactions Reporting Act, generally referred to as the Bank
Secrecy Act (BSA), as revised, imposes a number of reporting and recordkeeping
obligations on covered financial institutions in an effort to prevent money laundering and
the financing of terrorism, including, among other things, verifying the identity of
customers, conducting ongoing customer due diligence, and filing suspicious activity
reports with Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).
19Because of limited PPP loan underwriting, lenders and SBA had less information from
applicants to detect errors or fraud. The requirement in SBA’s first interim final rule that
lenders follow applicable BSA requirements may have required lenders to collect
additional identifying information from borrowers before they approved a PPP loan.

 Federal banking agencies include the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
20

System, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the National Credit Union Administration,
and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. FinCEN has delegated its authority to
examine financial institutions for compliance with the Bank Secrecy Act to the federal
banking agencies. 31 C.F.R. § 1010.810(b).
21In July 2021, SBA transitioned administration of COVID-19 EIDL from the Office of

Disaster Assistance to the Office of Capital Access. This program did not rely on a
network of lenders to distribute pandemic relief funds.




Page 7                                                           GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
2021) for applicants located in low-income communities and meeting
other eligibility requirements. Recipients could use these low-interest
loans and advances as working capital to cover operating expenses to
alleviate economic injury caused by the pandemic.

In December 2020 and March 2021, Congress passed the Consolidated
Appropriations Act, 2021 and the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021,
respectively, which appropriated additional funds to PPP and COVID-19
EIDL and made changes to PPP, including allowing a second loan under
certain conditions. Congress also enacted two new programs—RRF and
SVOG.

RRF provided about $29 billion in award funds (which did not need to be
repaid) to recipients—businesses in the food service industry—to use for
eligible expenses such as payroll, business debt, maintenance, or
construction of outdoor seating. SBA’s Office of Capital Access managed
the program directly. RRF accepted applications between May and July
2021.

SVOG provided about $15 billion in grant funds to recipients, which
included live performing arts and entertainment businesses affected by
the pandemic. Recipients could use the funds for eligible expenses that
enable business operations such as payroll, rent or mortgage, and utility
payments. SBA’s Office of Disaster Assistance managed the program
directly. SVOG accepted applications between April and August 2021.

The CARES Act and subsequent legislation allowed for cross-program
participation, in some circumstances. For example, PPP recipients could
also receive COVID-19 EIDL, RRF, and SVOG funds, with some
limitations. In the case of RRF and SVOG, recipients could obtain
COVID-19 EIDL and PPP funds, with certain limitations, but recipients
could not obtain both RRF and SVOG funds.

See table 1 for additional characteristics of the four SBA pandemic relief
programs, including eligibility requirements.




Page 8                                              GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Table 1: Characteristics of Small Business Administration’s (SBA) Pandemic Relief Programs

                                                     Economic Injury           Restaurant                   Shuttered Venue
                         Paycheck Protection         Disaster Loan             Revitalization               Operators Grant
Characteristic           Program (PPP)               (COVID-19 EIDL)           Fund (RRF)                   (SVOG)
Initial authorizing      CARES Act; Paycheck         Coronavirus               American Rescue              Consolidated
legislation              Protection Program          Preparedness and          Plan Act of 2021             Appropriations
                         Flexibility Act of 2020     Response Supplemental                                  Act, 2021
                                                     Appropriations Act of
                                                     2020; CARES Act
Purpose                  To assist small             To assist small           To assist small              To assist small
                         businesses and              businesses and            businesses in the food       businesses in the live
                         nonprofits economically     nonprofits economically   service industry affected    performing arts and
                         affected by COVID-19        affected by COVID-19      by COVID-19                  entertainment industry
                                                                                                            affected by COVID-19
Transaction type         Forgivable loan             Loan, advances (grants)   Award                        Grant
Appropriated fundinga    $813.7 billion              $105 billion              $28.6 billion                $16.3 billion
Funding distributed to   $799 billion                $378 billion in loans     $28.6 billion                $14.6 billion
recipientsb                                          $7 billion in advancesc
Number of loans,         11.4 million                3.9 million loans         100,572                      13,011
advances, awards                                     6.8 million advances
issued




                                            Page 9                                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                                 Economic Injury           Restaurant                Shuttered Venue
                      Paycheck Protection        Disaster Loan             Revitalization            Operators Grant
Characteristic        Program (PPP)              (COVID-19 EIDL)           Fund (RRF)                (SVOG)
Eligible businesses   •   Generally, not more Loans:                       •   Businesses such as •      Venues and
                          than 500 employees •     Not more than 500           restaurants, food         promoters, live
                          or meet SBA size         employees or meet           stands, food trucks,      performing arts,
                          standards (either the    SBA size standards          caterers, bars, and       movie theaters,
                          industry size                                        similar places of         museums, talent
                          standard or the        • Small businesses            business that serve       representatives, and
                          alternative size         including small             food or drink             theatrical producers
                          standard)                agricultural
                                                   cooperatives,           •   Businesses must       •   Business was in
                      •   Sole proprietors,        Employee Stock              have no more than         operation as of
                          independent              Ownership Plans,            20 locations              February 29, 2020
                          contractors, and self-   tribal concerns, sole   •   Businesses’
                          employed persons         proprietorships,            operating status
                      •   Certain nonprofit        independent                 could be open,
                          organizations, certain   contractors,                temporarily closed,
                          veterans                 agricultural                or opening soon, with
                          organizations, or        enterprises, and            expenses incurred as
                          tribal businesses        most private                of March 11, 2021
                      •   Businesses in the        nonprofit
                          accommodations and       organizationsd
                          food services sector •   Business was
                          with more than one       established on or
                          physical location may    before January 31,
                          be eligible if fewer     2020
                          than 500 people are Advances:
                          employed per
                          physical location      • Not more than 500
                                                   employees for
                      •   Business was in          advances in 2020
                          operation as of
                          February 15, 2020      • Not more than 300
                                                   employees and low-
                      •   For second draw          income community
                          loans, businesses        and losses to income
                          must have no more        greater than 30
                          than 300 employees       percent for targeted
                          unless “per location”    advances
                          size standard
                          applies. SBA           • Not more than 10
                          industry-based or        employees and low-
                          alternative size         income community
                          standards do not         and economic losses
                          apply                    greater than 50
                                                   percent for
                                                   supplemental
                                                   targeted advances
                                                 • Most agricultural
                                                   enterprises were not
                                                   eligible for targeted
                                                   advances or
                                                   supplemental
                                                   targeted advances




                                       Page 10                                                     GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                                                     Economic Injury            Restaurant                  Shuttered Venue
                                   Paycheck Protection               Disaster Loan              Revitalization              Operators Grant
Characteristic                     Program (PPP)                     (COVID-19 EIDL)            Fund (RRF)                  (SVOG)
Eligible expenses                  For loan forgiveness: 60          Payroll, business rent,    Payroll (including paid     Those that enabled
                                   percent on payroll with           certain mortgage           sick leave), rent or        ongoing business
                                   the rest spent on                 payments and fixed debt    mortgage payments,          operations (e.g., payroll
                                   business rent, mortgage           payments                   utilities, debt service,    costs, rent, mortgage
                                   interest payments, or                                        construction of outdoor     payments)
                                   utilities, among other                                       seating, maintenance,
                                   eligible expenses                                            supplies, food and
                                                                                                beverage (including raw
                                                                                                materials), covered
                                                                                                supplier costs, and
                                                                                                operating expenses
Repayment period                   Loans issued prior to             Up to 30 years; 30-month Not applicable (NA)           NA
                                   June 5, 2020: 2 years,            deferred repayment.
                                   unless mutually                   Advances do not need to
                                   extended. Loans issued            be repaid
                                   on or after June 5, 2020:
                                   5 years.
                                   Loan can be forgiven
                                   when at least 60 percent
                                   used for payroll costs
Interest rate for loans            1 percent                         3.75 percent for           NA                          NA
                                                                     businesses; 2.75 percent
                                                                     for nonprofits
Allowed participation              COVID-19 EIDL, RRF,           PPP, RRF, SVOG                 PPP, COVID-19 EIDL          PPP, COVID-19 EIDL
across programs                    SVOG (the amount of a                                        (RRF awards adjusted        (SVOG awards adjusted
(Limitations for cross-            SVOG grant to be                                             based on PPP value;         if PPP received on or
program participation)             reduced by the total                                         recipients cannot obtain    after December 27, 2020;
                                   amount of a PPP loan                                         both RRF and SVOG           recipients cannot obtain
                                   received on or after                                         funds)                      both RRF and SVOG
                                   December 27, 2020;                                                                       funds)
                                   entities are ineligible for a
                                   PPP loan after they
                                   receive a SVOG grant)
Source: GAO analysis of SBA information. | GAO-23-105331
                                                           aData as reported by GAO in September 2021 (PPP), July 2021 (COVID-19 EIDL), July

                                                           2022 (RRF), and October 2022 (SVOG). SBA provided the following net appropriations
                                                           amounts as of September 2022, inclusive of rescissions and transfers: PPP – $820 billion;
                                                           COVID-19 EIDL – $75.2 billion; RRF – $28.6 billion; SVOG – $15.1 billion. These amounts
                                                           include net funding considerations from laws from fiscal year 2020 through fiscal year
                                                           2022.
                                                           bData as reported by SBA in the Agency Financial Report, Fiscal Year 2022.

                                                           cDistributed amount for COVID-19 EIDL is higher than appropriated amount due to

                                                           COVID-19 EIDL loan credit subsidy. Loan credit subsidy covers the government’s cost of
                                                           extending or guaranteeing credit and is used to protect the government against the risk of
                                                           estimated shortfalls in loan repayments. The loan credit subsidy amount is about one-
                                                           seventh of the cost of each disaster loan in 2020.
                                                           dAgricultural enterprises did not become eligible until April 24, 2020, based on the

                                                           Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act.




                                                           Page 11                                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Fraud in SBA Pandemic   Fraud is challenging to detect because of its deceptive nature. Generally,
Relief Programs         once potential fraud is detected and investigated, alleged fraud cases
                        may be charged. If a court determines that fraud took place through a
                        violation of relevant law, then fraudulent spending may be recovered.

                        The life cycle of fraud in SBA pandemic relief programs, including those
                        involving PPP and COVID-19 EIDL, started with applicants who
                        circumvented existing controls. Some of the potentially fraudulent
                        applications were declined by lenders or by SBA through the use of
                        upfront controls. Other applications were approved, but potential fraud
                        was later detected through SBA fraud controls or by others such as law
                        enforcement, whistleblowers, or financial institutions. Some fraudulent
                        applications will never be detected.

                        Law enforcement agencies, such as the SBA OIG and U.S. Secret
                        Service, investigated instances of suspected fraud and violations of
                        relevant statutes (investigation stage). 22 DOJ has pursued and continues
                        to pursue a portion of the cases investigated by law enforcement. DOJ
                        has done this by filing fraud-related criminal charges against individuals
                        or businesses that submitted the applications, or, less commonly, by
                        bringing a civil case against an individual or business (prosecution
                        stage). 23

                        A criminal case is resolved by a guilty plea, a guilty verdict after trial, an
                        acquittal after trial, or dismissal of the charges (resolution stage). In the
                        context of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases, DOJ officials stated that the
                        vast majority of cases are resolved through plea agreements, with few
                        cases dismissed or resulting in acquittals. Only criminal cases resulting in
                        a guilty plea or guilty verdict after trial reach the sentencing phase where




                         In April 2023, the SBA Inspector General testified that his office had assisted the U.S.
                        22

                        Secret Service in the seizure of more than $1 billion stolen by fraudsters from the COVID-
                        19 EIDL program. Office of Inspector General Reports to Congress on Investigations of
                        SBA Programs, Before the House Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and
                        Regulations of the Committee on Small Business, 118th Cong., April 19, 2023.
                        23Criminal cases involve federal prosecutors filing charges against an accused for violation
                        of one or more criminal statute, and punishment may result in imprisonment. Civil cases
                        involve the government alleging violation of civil statute and may result in seeking financial
                        compensation but no imprisonment.




                        Page 12                                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
the court determines penalties, and funds from fraudulently obtained
loans may be subject to restitution and forfeiture (sentencing stage). 24

See figure 1 for an illustration of the life cycle involving criminal cases.
This life cycle involves a range of agency, investigative, prosecutorial,
and judicial resources to attempt to recover fraudulently obtained
taxpayer funds. Furthermore, this process underscores the resources
involved in a “pay-and-chase” approach to dealing with fraud and the
importance of preventive controls to manage fraud risks. 25




24Civil cases are resolved through settlement or after proceedings that result in a civil
judgment. The amount of any damages to be paid is determined by the parties as part of
their settlement or is reflected in the civil judgment.
 “Pay-and-chase” refers to the practice of detecting fraudulent transactions and
25

attempting to recover funds after payments have been made. The Fraud Risk Framework
describes “pay-and-chase” as a costly and inefficient model.




Page 13                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Figure 1: Illustrative Life Cycle of Fraudulent Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster
Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Applications Involving Criminal Cases




                                         Note: The numbers and proportions of applications and cases in the figure are illustrative.
                                         a
                                          Although cases that were resolved with acquittals may have had fraud-related charges, the
                                         defendants were formally determined to not be guilty of the charges.




                                         Page 14                                                                GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Fraud Risk Management   To help combat fraud in government agencies and programs—both
                        during normal operations and emergencies—GAO published A
                        Framework for Managing Fraud Risks in Federal Programs (Fraud Risk
                        Framework). 26 Issued in 2015, the Fraud Risk Framework identifies
                        leading practices for managing fraud risks and encompasses control
                        activities to prevent, detect, and respond to fraud, with an emphasis on
                        prevention. As discussed in the Fraud Risk Framework, strategic fraud
                        risk management involves more than having controls to prevent, detect,
                        and respond to fraud. Rather, it also encompasses structures and
                        environmental factors that influence or help managers achieve their
                        objective to mitigate fraud risks.

                        The Fraud Risk Framework describes leading practices in four
                        components: commit, assess, design and implement, and evaluate and
                        adapt, as depicted in figure 2.




                         GAO-15-593SP.
                        26




                        Page 15                                            GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Figure 2: The Four Components of the Fraud Risk Management Framework and Selected Leading Practices




                                      In June 2016, Congress enacted the Fraud Reduction and Data Analytics
                                      Act of 2015. This act required the Office of Management and Budget
                                      (OMB) to establish guidelines for federal agencies to create controls to
                                      identify and assess fraud risks and to design and implement antifraud
                                      control activities. 27 The act further required OMB to incorporate the
                                      leading practices from GAO’s Fraud Risk Framework in these guidelines.
                                      In its 2016 Circular No. A-123 guidelines, OMB directed agencies to
                                      adhere to the Fraud Risk Framework’s leading practices as part of their
                                      efforts to effectively design, implement, and operate an internal control

                                      27Pub. L. No. 114-186, 130 Stat. 546 (2016).




                                      Page 16                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                           system that addresses fraud risks. 28 Although the act was repealed in
                           March 2020, the Payment Integrity Information Act of 2019 requires these
                           guidelines to remain in effect. 29

                           GAO also has ongoing work developing a framework to provide principles
                           and practices that can help federal managers mitigate improper
                           payments, including those resulting from fraudulent activity, in emergency
                           assistance programs. Specifically, the framework will incorporate
                           standards for internal controls and for financial and fraud risk
                           management practices as well as requirements from relevant laws and
                           guidance on improper payments.

Prior Reporting on Fraud   In our first government-wide CARES Act report issued in June 2020, we
Risks and Financial        reported that the public health crisis, economic instability, and increased
                           flow of federal funds associated with the COVID-19 pandemic increased
Control Weaknesses in      pressures and opportunities for fraud. 30 We noted that recognizing fraud
SBA Pandemic Relief        risks and deliberately managing them in an emergency environment can
Programs                   help federal managers safeguard public resources while providing
                           needed relief.

                           We also reported that because the government needed to provide funds
                           and other assistance quickly to those affected by COVID-19 and its
                           economic effects, federal relief programs—including those implemented
                           by SBA—were vulnerable to significant risk of fraudulent activities. We
                           further stated that managers may perceive a conflict between their
                           priorities to fulfill the program’s mission—such as efficiently disbursing
                           funds or providing services to beneficiaries, particularly during
                           emergencies—and taking actions to safeguard taxpayer dollars from
                           improper use. However, we noted that the purpose of proactively

                           28Office of Management and Budget, Management’s Responsibility for Enterprise Risk
                           Management and Internal Control, OMB Circular No. A-123 (Washington, D.C. July 15,
                           2016). In October 2022, OMB issued a Controller Alert, which reminded agencies that
                           they must establish financial and administrative controls to identify and assess fraud risks.
                           In addition, OMB reminded agencies that they should adhere to the leading practices in
                           GAO’s Fraud Risk Management Framework as part of their efforts to effectively design,
                           implement, and operate an internal control system that addresses fraud risks. OMB, CA-
                           23-03, Establishing Financial and Administrative Controls to Identify and Assess Fraud
                           Risk (Oct. 17, 2022).

                            Pub. L. No. 116-117, § 2(a), 134 Stat. 113, 131-32 (2020) (codified at 31 U.S.C. §3357).
                           29

                           These guidelines may be periodically modified by OMB in consultation with GAO, as OMB
                           and GAO may determine necessary.

                            GAO, COVID-19: Opportunities to Improve Federal Response and Recovery Efforts,
                           30

                           GAO-20-625 (Washington, D.C.: June 25, 2020).




                           Page 17                                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
managing fraud risks, even during emergencies, is to facilitate, not hinder,
the program’s mission and strategic goals by ensuring that taxpayer
dollars and government services serve their intended purposes.

We further reported that when emergency response situations limit the
use of preventive controls—which are the most effective means of
managing fraud risks—agencies can leverage detective controls, such as
through data collection and analysis, to help identify potential fraud more
readily and to assist in response and recovery. Specifically, the use of
data analytic tools and techniques can help programs detect potential
fraud and better understand existing and emerging risks.

In February 2023, the Comptroller General testified on fraud and improper
payments in COVID-19 pandemic relief programs. 31 He noted that SBA’s
initial approach to managing fraud risks in PPP and the COVID-19 EIDL
program, as well as in its long-standing programs, had not been strategic.
For example,

•    SBA did not designate a dedicated antifraud entity until February
     2022. This new entity—the Fraud Risk Management Board—is to
     oversee and coordinate SBA’s fraud risk prevention, detection, and
     response activities.
•    SBA did not develop its fraud risk assessments for the programs until
     October 2021, at which point PPP had already stopped accepting new
     applications, and the COVID-19 EIDL program would stop at the end
     of that year. Fraud risk assessments are most helpful in developing
     preventive fraud controls to avoid costly and inefficient “pay-and-
     chase” activities. For example, while the PPP fraud risk assessment
     can help SBA identify potential fraud as it continues to review the PPP
     loans for forgiveness, it could not be used to inform SBA’s efforts
     during the initial application process.
See appendix II for additional details regarding SBA’s management of
fraud risks as the pandemic began and as SBA adapted its fraud risk
management approach for the four pandemic relief programs. See
appendix III for our recommendations to improve fraud risk management
in SBA’s pandemic relief programs, along with information on actions
taken by SBA to address them.


 GAO, Emergency Relief Funds: Significant Improvements Are Needed to Address Fraud
31

and Improper Payments, GAO-23-106556 (Washington, D.C.: Feb. 1, 2023).




Page 18                                                 GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Other federal accountability and oversight bodies, namely the SBA OIG
and the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee (PRAC), have
reported on SBA’s efforts to manage fraud risks in these programs. 32
Many of the reports produced by these bodies also contained
recommendations to SBA. 33

In addition, since 2020, SBA’s independent financial statement auditor
has made multiple recommendations to SBA to address material
weaknesses identified in controls related to SBA’s pandemic relief
programs. 34 Specifically:

•    In December 2020, the auditor issued a disclaimer of opinion on
     SBA’s consolidated financial statements as of and for the year ended
     September 30, 2020, meaning the auditor was unable to express an
     opinion due to insufficient evidence. 35 As the basis for the disclaimer,
     the auditor stated that SBA was unable to provide adequate
     documentation to support a significant number of transactions and
     account balances related to PPP and COVID-19 EIDL due to
     inadequate processes and controls.
     The auditor identified several material weaknesses in controls related
     to SBA’s pandemic relief programs. In total, the auditor identified
     seven material weaknesses including those related to PPP loan
     approvals, COVID-19 EIDL loans and advance approvals, and overall
     management controls (e.g., ineffective control environment, risk
     assessment processes, control activities, information and
     communication processes, and monitoring processes). Overall, the

32The Pandemic Response Accountability Committee (PRAC) was established by the
CARES Act to conduct oversight of the federal government’s pandemic response and
recovery effort. The PRAC is composed of 21 federal inspectors general.
33SBA OIG and PRAC reports, including information on recommendations and their status,
can be found on the PRAC’s website
(https://www.pandemicoversight.gov/oversight/reports).
34A deficiency in internal control exists when the design or operation of a control does not
allow management or employees, in the normal course of performing their assigned
functions, to prevent, or detect and correct, misstatements on a timely basis. A material
weakness is a deficiency, or combination of deficiencies, in internal control over financial
reporting, such that there is a reasonable possibility that a material misstatement of the
entity’s financial statements will not be prevented, or detected and corrected, on a timely
basis.
35SBA OIG, Independent Auditors’ Report on SBA’s FY 2020 Financial Statements, 21-04

(Dec. 18, 2020).




Page 19                                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
    auditor made 46 recommendations to SBA management. In
    commenting on the audit, SBA stated it supported the requirements
    for auditability of its financial statements and was working to correct
    shortcomings for future audits.

•   In November 2021, the auditor issued a disclaimer of opinion on
    SBA’s consolidated balance sheet as of September 30, 2021. 36 As the
    basis for the disclaimer, the auditor stated that SBA was unable to
    provide adequate documentation to support a significant number of
    transactions and account balances related to PPP, COVID-19 EIDL,
    RRF, and SVOG due to inadequate processes and controls.
    In total, the auditor identified six material weaknesses. This included
    weaknesses related to PPP (both the approval and forgiveness,
    among others), COVID-19 EIDL (both loans and advances), and the
    accounting and monitoring of RRF and SVOG programs. Overall, the
    auditor made 41 recommendations to SBA management. In
    commenting on the audit, SBA stated that it did not concur with the
    severity of five material weaknesses in the auditor’s report, including
    those related to PPP, COVID-19 EIDL, RRF, and SVOG. SBA stated
    that it had worked to establish internal controls, policies, and
    procedures that addressed new legislative programs as a result of the
    pandemic, and that it would take corrective actions to remediate
    weaknesses and strengthen internal controls where necessary.

•   In November 2022, the auditor issued a disclaimer of opinion on
    SBA’s consolidated balance sheet as of September 30, 2022. 37 The
    basis of the disclaimer was related to SBA being unable to provide
    adequate documentation related to PPP, COVID-19 EIDL, RRF, and
    SVOG.
    In total, the auditor identified six material weaknesses, including those
    related to controls in the PPP, COVID-19 EIDL, RRF, and SVOG
    programs. Overall, the auditor made 42 recommendations to SBA

36SBA OIG, Independent Auditors’ Report on SBA’s FY 2021 Financial Statements, 22-05

(Nov. 15, 2021). The OIG contracted with the independent auditor to conduct an audit of
SBA’s consolidated balance sheet as of September 30, 2021, and the related notes. As a
result, the auditor was not engaged to express an opinion on the other statements within
the consolidated financial statements.
37SBA OIG, Independent Auditors’ Report on SBA’s FY 2022 Financial Statements, 23-02

(Nov. 15, 2022). The OIG contracted with the independent auditor to conduct an audit of
SBA’s consolidated balance sheet as of September 30, 2022, and the related notes. As a
result, the auditor was not engaged to express an opinion on the other statements within
the consolidated financial statements.




Page 20                                                      GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                   management. In commenting on the audit, SBA noted that it had
                                   continued making progress strengthening internal controls for
                                   pandemic-focused programs and was dedicated to accountability and
                                   transparency to the American public. SBA also noted that the audit
                                   process continued to provide the agency with beneficial
                                   recommendations that support SBA’s ongoing efforts to further
                                   enhance its financial management practices.

                              Our analysis, which identified hundreds of cases and individuals charged
Analysis of PPP and           by DOJ as well as associated businesses, illustrates how
COVID-19 EIDL                 misrepresentations and deliberate exploitation of the programs facilitated
                              fraud. Our analysis also determined that the financial and non-financial
Charges Illustrates           impacts of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud are far reaching, but the full
Fraud Schemes and             extent is not yet known.
Their Actual and
Potential Impacts
Analysis of PPP and
COVID-19 EIDL Charges
Shows the Role of
Misrepresentation and
Deliberate Exploitation in
Facilitating Fraud
Analysis of Hundreds of PPP   Our analysis of hundreds of cases charged by DOJ illustrates how fraud
and COVID-19 EIDL Cases       was committed in closed cases or may have been committed in ongoing
Identified Associated         cases, through misrepresentations and deliberate exploitation of PPP and
Individuals and Businesses    COVID-19 EIDL. 38 The cases and associated individuals and businesses
                              in our analysis are based on publicly announced fraud-related charges



                              38We identified fraud cases from DOJ press releases and other public information, which
                              may not include all cases pursued by DOJ. Additionally, some fraud may never be
                              detected. Furthermore, fraud-related administrative actions levied by regulators or brought
                              through lawsuits by private entities or individuals are not included in our analysis. As a
                              result, the 330 cases we identified and analyzed may not be representative of all cases
                              pursued by DOJ or others. In addition, case details, such as businesses involved and
                              numbers of loan applications submitted, were not always available in publicly available
                              case documentation. Our findings, including counts of cases, individuals, and businesses,
                              therefore represent the lower bound of the possible characteristics of cases we identified
                              for this analysis.




                              Page 21                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
involving PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds as of December 31, 2021. 39
Specifically, we identified 330 criminal and civil fraud cases brought by
DOJ involving PPP or COVID-19 EIDL, 91 of which involved both
programs (see fig. 3). 40 The number of cases will continue to grow. For
example, as of January 25, 2023, the SBA OIG had 536 ongoing
investigations involving PPP, COVID-19 EIDL, or both. Additionally,
Congress extended the statute of limitations for criminal and civil
enforcement for all forms of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL loan fraud from
5 years to 10 years. 41




39We selected December 31, 2021, as the ending point of our research because on
December 31, 2021, SBA stopped accepting COVID-19 EIDL applications (per
Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021). PPP closed in May 2021. We acknowledge that
DOJ has continued to bring charges involving PPP and COVID-19 EIDL since December
31, 2021, and that later cases may involve more complex fraud schemes that may take
longer to investigate and prosecute. In a separate analysis of DOJ public statements and
court documentation, we reported on February 1, 2023, that from March 2020 through
January 13, 2023, 535 individuals or entities had pleaded guilty or received a guilty verdict
at trial involving PPP fraud, and 293 involving COVID-19 EIDL fraud (with 185 having
fraud-related charges involving both programs).
40A single case—which involves fraud-related charges associated with PPP, COVID-19
EIDL, or both programs—may involve (1) a single individual or business or (2) multiple
individuals or businesses that applied for a single or multiple loans or grants. A single
case may contain a single or multiple fraud mechanisms. Out of the 330 fraud cases we
identified, 322 were criminal cases and eight were civil cases. The civil cases included in
our analysis were closed cases that reached a conclusion through settlement or judgment
of forfeiture. Ongoing civil cases were not included in our analysis.

 PPP and Bank Fraud Harmonization Act of 2022, Pub. L. No. 117-166, 136 Stat. 1365
41

and COVID-19 EIDL Fraud Statute of Limitations Act of 2022, Pub. L. No. 117-165, 136
Stat. 1363.




Page 22                                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Figure 3: Cases Charged by the Department of Justice Involving Paycheck
Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19
EIDL) Fraud, as of December 31, 2021




As of December 31, 2021, 155 of the 330 cases were categorized as
closed because they reached a conclusion through guilty pleas,
settlements, guilty verdicts, or dismissals. 42 At that time, 175 cases had
not yet reached conclusion and, therefore, were considered ongoing for
the purposes of our analysis (see fig. 4).




42Our definition of a closed case also included acquittals, but no acquittals were identified
in our population of cases. Of the 155 closed cases, five had been dismissed.




Page 23                                                          GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Figure 4: Ongoing and Closed Cases Involving Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)
and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Fraud, as of
December 31, 2021




Notes: This analysis is limited to the cases we identified from public sources, which may not include
all criminal and civil cases charged by the Department of Justice as of December 31, 2021.
Additionally, the status of ongoing cases may have changed since December 31, 2021.


Multiple federal law enforcement agencies investigated these 330 cases.
Federal prosecutors across the United States filed bank fraud, wire fraud,
money laundering, identity theft, and other charges against
524 individuals associated with these cases. Additionally, our analysis
identified 989 businesses that were associated with these 330 fraud
cases (see fig. 5).




Page 24                                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                                Figure 5: Individuals and Businesses Associated with Paycheck Protection
                                                Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL)
                                                Fraud Cases, as of December 31, 2021




Most Charges Involved                           Our analysis of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases shows ineligible, non-
Allegations of Non-Operating                    operating businesses applied for and obtained program funds or were
Businesses and                                  alleged to have done so. Such businesses include shell companies,
Misrepresentations of Business                  which have no employees or operations, and fictitious entities. Of the
and Individual Eligibility                      330 PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases, 221 (or about 67 percent) involved
                                                or allegedly involved non-operating businesses. Specifically, of the
Glossary of Key Terms                           989 businesses identified in court documents, approximately 72 percent
fictitious entity: fake business that is        were identified as or alleged to be shell companies or fictitious entities,
presented as real in order to obtain Paycheck   which would make them ineligible for PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funding
Protection Program or COVID-19 Economic
Injury Disaster Loan funds.
                                                (see fig. 6). 43
shell company: a business or company that
has no employees or operations.
Source: GAO. | GAO-23-105331




                                                43Because documents did not always explicitly note whether the businesses they named
                                                were legitimate or fictitious, the remaining category of businesses includes potentially
                                                fictitious businesses.




                                                Page 25                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Figure 6: Types of Businesses Identified in Paycheck Protection Program and
COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan Fraud Cases, as of December 31, 2021




a
 Because documents did not always explicitly note whether the businesses they named were
legitimate or fictitious, the remaining category of businesses includes potentially fictitious businesses.


Among the cases involving shell companies or fictitious entities, those
charged obtained or, for the ongoing cases, are alleged to have obtained
approximately $388.9 million in PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds. (See text
box for illustrative example.)




Page 26                                                                  GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
  Fraudster used multiple ineligible businesses to receive pandemic relief funds.
  A fraudster submitted four Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and 10 COVID-19
  Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) applications for 10 different
  businesses. Those businesses included one legitimate business, eight shell companies
  that had no operations or employees, and one fictitious entity. The applications used
  stolen personally identifiable information and falsified monthly payroll documents and
  tax forms for the businesses. The fraudster received $109,552 in PPP and $642,800 in
  COVID-19 EIDL funds based on these submissions. At the same time, the fraudster
  applied for a state pandemic-related relief grant and received $70,000 through that
  program. The fraudster misused pandemic relief funds for personal expenses including
  a diamond ring, luxury hotel stays, living expenses, and payments for personal credit
  cards and student loans. The fraudster pled guilty and was sentenced to 4 years in
  prison and 3 years of supervised release. The fraudster was also ordered to pay
  $1,998,097 in restitution.*
  *The sentencing and restitution amount for this individual were based on the fraudulent
  funds received from the Small Business Administration’s PPP and COVID-19 EIDL as
  well as the state COVID-19 relief fund and an equipment financing fraud scheme not
  related to the pandemic.

Source: GAO analysis of Department of Justice information and court documents. | GAO-23-105331



Some individuals who applied for PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds on
behalf of legitimate businesses misrepresented or allegedly
misrepresented their business eligibility based on program requirements.
In 52 cases, involving 89 legitimate businesses, individuals either
misrepresented or allegedly misrepresented business eligibility with false
statements on applications about their criminal record, federal debt, or
principal place of residence, among others. (See text box for illustrative
example.)




Page 27                                                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                                    Fraudsters misrepresented eligibility to receive pandemic relief funds.
                                                    Two fraudsters, an owner of a legitimate automotive business and an employee of the
                                                    business, applied for a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan certifying no prior
                                                    felony charges. However, at the time the owner was facing charges of wire fraud and
                                                    money laundering. The fraudsters received $210,000 in PPP funds based on the
                                                    application. In addition to misrepresenting eligibility, the fraudsters misused loan
                                                    proceeds. While agreeing on the application to use PPP funds for payroll, they paid
                                                    past-due truck payments and purchased various truck parts. Both pled guilty. The
                                                    owner was sentenced to 3 years in prison and 3 years of supervised release. The
                                                    employee was sentenced to 1 year and a day in prison and 3 years of supervised
                                                    release.* The employee was ordered to pay $220,500 in restitution for the PPP loan
                                                    application fraud.
                                                    *The sentencing for the business owner is based on the fraudulent funds received from
                                                    PPP, as well as other charges not related to SBA pandemic relief.
                                                  Source: GAO analysis of Department of Justice information and court documents. | GAO-23-105331



Charges Involved Allegations                      The 330 fraud cases we analyzed showed that individuals used or were
of Individuals Obtaining PPP                      alleged to have used various and multiple types of falsehoods to obtain
and COVID-19 EIDL Funds by                        PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds. This could involve the falsification of
Falsifying Documentation and                      documents, such as tax forms, payroll documentation, and bank
Stealing Identities                               statements to apply for funds. Additionally, allegations involving false
                                                  information about other elements of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL loan
                                                  applications, such as employee counts and payroll amounts, were
                                                  prevalent in DOJ cases.

Glossary of Key Terms
                                                  Our analysis showed that 227 of the 330 PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases
false attestation: falsified statement(s) on an
                                                  (or 69 percent) involved falsification or alleged falsification of tax or other
application.                                      documents, such as payroll documentation or bank statements.
synthetic identity: a fabricated identity using   Specifically, 190 (or 58 percent) of the cases involved allegations of tax
fictitious information in combination with
stolen information, such as a Social Security
                                                  document falsification, showing that tax forms may have been commonly
number.                                           forged or altered. Further, 240 cases (or 73 percent) involved schemes in
Source: GAO. | GAO-23-105331                      which individuals created fictitious employees and inflated employee
                                                  counts to obtain more funds or were alleged to have done so.

                                                  The cases also involved allegations of various types of identity theft. This
                                                  involves the theft of personally identifiable and business information or
                                                  the use of synthetic identities to obtain PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds.
                                                  Our analysis showed that 63 of the 330 PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases
                                                  (or 19 percent) involved allegations of theft of personally identifiable
                                                  information and 17 cases (or 5 percent) involved allegations of using
                                                  another business’s information to obtain PPP or COVID-19 EIDL funds.
                                                  Additionally, we identified 50 cases (or 15 percent) that involved



                                                  Page 28                                                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                 allegations of individuals stealing and wrongfully using Social Security
                                 numbers (SSN) to apply for PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds. Another
                                 11 cases (or 3 percent) involved allegations of synthetic identity fraud
                                 where individuals fabricated an identity by using fictitious information in
                                 combination with stolen information such as an SSN. (See text box for
                                 illustrative example.)

                                   Fraudster used stolen personal information, shell companies, and false
                                   attestation to obtain pandemic assistance.
                                   A fraudster applied for five Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans for three
                                   different shell companies that had no operations or employees. On one application, the
                                   fraudster used a deceased victim’s name to apply for a PPP loan for the shell
                                   company. On another PPP application, the fraudster created a synthetic identity by
                                   combining his name with his father’s Social Security number (SSN) instead of using his
                                   own SSN. On one of the applications, the fraudster certified no prior felony charges,
                                   when he had charges of tampering with a government record. The fraudster also
                                   falsely represented that the businesses had multiple employees, when they had none.
                                   The fraudster misused the PPP funds to purchase a 2020 Ford F-350 truck, a 2019
                                   Lamborghini Urus, and a Rolex watch, among other ineligible expenses. In total, the
                                   fraudster applied for $4,618,111 and received $1,689,952 in PPP funds. After pleading
                                   guilty, the fraudster was sentenced to 9 years and 2 months in prison and 3 years of
                                   supervised release. The fraudster was also ordered to pay $1,689,952 in restitution.
                                 Source: GAO analysis of Department of Justice information and court documents. | GAO-23-105331



Charges against Multiple         Our analysis found some cases involved allegations of multiple
Individuals per Case and         individuals conspiring to fraudulently apply for PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
Linked Cases Indicate            funds. Specifically, in 79 of 330 PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases (or
Coordinated Efforts to Defraud   24 percent) two or more individuals were charged. Further, 11 cases
Programs                         involved charges against more than five individuals, with the highest
                                 number of individuals charged in a case being 18. Our analysis found that
                                 90 of 330 cases (or 27 percent) involved conspiracy-related charges. 44
                                 This indicates a potentially significant role of organized activity in PPP
                                 and COVID-19 EIDL fraud.

                                 Our analysis identified 38 of 330 cases that were related, meaning that
                                 two or more cases involved individuals allegedly involved in the same
                                 fraud scheme. We identified 13 clusters of related criminal cases in which


                                 44Conspiracy-related charges involve an agreement by two or more individuals to commit a

                                 crime and one or more overt acts in furtherance of the conspiracy. In our analysis, in
                                 certain cases individuals were charged alone in a conspiracy case but were involved in
                                 fraud schemes involving other individuals, who may have been separately charged.




                                 Page 29                                                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                        individuals allegedly participated in separate schemes to defraud PPP or
                                        COVID-19 EIDL. The number of cases and program applications in each
                                        cluster ranged from two to eight and two to 202, respectively (see fig. 7).
                                        Cumulatively, 112 individuals were charged across all 38 of the related
                                        fraud cases, obtaining about $119 million in PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
                                        funds.

Figure 7: Clusters of Related Cases Charged by the Department of Justice Associated with Paycheck Protection Program and
COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan Fraud, as of December 31, 2021




                                        Notes: This analysis includes closed cases, which reached a conclusion through guilty pleas,
                                        convictions after trial, or dismissals, and ongoing cases, which had not reached a conclusion as of
                                        December 31, 2021. Not all individuals may have participated in all applications associated with a
                                        scheme. Our analysis of the number of applications is limited to the numbers identified in court
                                        documents and thus may undercount the total number of applications submitted.


                                        One example of a cluster of six related cases involved 23 individuals
                                        charged with submitting 202 PPP and COVID-19 EIDL applications (see
                                        cluster C in figure 7). These cases allege a scheme that involved several
                                        groups of individuals in multiple states that used shell companies to apply
                                        for PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds. One such group is charged with
                                        developing falsified documentation, such as bank statements, payroll, and
                                        tax documents for their own applications and for others in exchange for a
                                        kickback fee of approximately 25 percent. Two other groups include



                                        Page 30                                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                                     registered agents who are charged with using recently registered
                                                     businesses to apply for loans using false documentation supplied by the
                                                     first group. 45 Other individuals are alleged to have acted as recruiters to
                                                     seek out additional individuals to participate in the scheme.

Charges Indicate that Some                           Our analysis of fraud schemes in DOJ cases showed that some cases
Schemes May Have Involved                            involved or allegedly involved the assistance of complicit individuals who
Facilitators Who Shared                              facilitated PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud for others. Sometimes this may
Knowledge of How to                                  have been done in return for a kickback payment. Of the 524 individuals
Circumvent Controls                                  associated with the cases, we found that 126 (or 24 percent) were linked
                                                     to 52 cases involving allegations of kickbacks. (See text box for illustrative
                                                     example.)

Glossary of Key Terms
                                                          Fraudster received kickbacks for submitting fraudulent Paycheck Protection
complicit facilitator: individual who
knowingly assisted, recruited, or provided                Program (PPP) loan applications for other individuals. A fraudster and a co-
guidance to Paycheck Protection Program                   conspirator applied for approximately 12 PPP loans, both in their own names and in the
and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan
                                                          names of others to receive kickback payments. For one loan, the fraudster and the co-
applicants on how to circumvent SBA
controls.                                                 conspirator charged $5,000 in cash up front to apply for a $20,000 PPP loan on behalf
kickback: a portion of loan or grant funds                of other individuals. On the applications, they falsely claimed hundreds of thousands of
paid to individual(s) in exchange for illicit help        dollars in business income, forged tax forms, and used stolen business identities. For
with loan applications.
Source: GAO. | GAO-23-105331
                                                          one of the other loans, they resubmitted fraudulent loan applications. In total, the
                                                          fraudster and the co-conspirator obtained approximately $220,000 in PPP funds. The
                                                          fraudster pled guilty to bank fraud conspiracy.

                                                     Source: GAO analysis of Department of Justice information and court documents. | GAO-23-105331

                                                     Our analysis also identified registered agents charged with fraudulently
                                                     obtaining PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds. As professional service
                                                     providers who have access to business information, including shell
                                                     companies, and business formation functions, registered agents in these
                                                     cases took advantage of their role, or were alleged to have done so, to
                                                     obtain PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds for themselves and others. 46 Our
                                                     analysis identified 105 registered agents charged across 70 cases that
                                                     cumulatively obtained about $197.6 million in PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
                                                     funds.


                                                     45Registered agents are persons or entities authorized to accept service of process or
                                                     other important legal or tax documents on behalf of a business and are frequently involved
                                                     in business formation. Additional information about registered agents is provided in the
                                                     following section.
                                                     46Registered agent functions can be performed by company formation agents—individuals
                                                     or entities that provide business formation services, including business registration with
                                                     the secretary of state.




                                                     Page 31                                                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Some Charges Indicate that      Our analysis of DOJ charges showed that some fraud against PPP and
Individuals May Have Targeted   COVID-19 EIDL was allegedly perpetrated in conjunction with other
Multiple Pandemic Relief        crimes and by criminal groups. Of the 330 PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
Programs and Committed          cases we identified, 91 involved both programs, illustrating an effort to
Other Crimes                    target multiple SBA pandemic relief programs. In addition, in 46 of the
                                330 cases (or 14 percent) DOJ filed charges against individuals for
                                defrauding other pandemic relief programs as well as PPP and COVID-19
                                EIDL. For example, in some cases associated with PPP and COVID-19
                                EIDL funds, individuals also allegedly defrauded state unemployment
                                insurance programs or offered fraudulent COVID-19 tests or personal
                                protective equipment (see text box for illustrative example). 47

                                     Fraudster received disaster funds from Small Business Administration and
                                     another pandemic relief program. A fraudster applied for and obtained Paycheck
                                     Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19
                                     EIDL) funds using shell companies that had no operations or employees. The
                                     applications falsely represented monthly payroll and gross income, and included
                                     falsified tax forms. The fraudster applied for two PPP loans and obtained funds based
                                     on both applications, and also received funds based on one of eight COVID-19 EIDL
                                     advance applications. In total, the fraudster received $542,714 in PPP and COVID-19
                                     EIDL funds, which were misused to purchase a BMW vehicle and a Rolex watch.

                                     At the same time, while obtaining small business relief funds, the fraudster received
                                     unemployment benefits claiming an active job search but inability to find employment.
                                     In 2020, the fraudster received $15,550 in unemployment benefits. The fraudster was
                                     sentenced to 2 years and 3 months in prison and 3 years of supervised release, as well
                                     as ordered to pay $542,714 in restitution for the PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud.

                                Source: GAO analysis of Department of Justice information and court documents. | GAO-23-105331



                                Our analysis further shows that 56 of 330 cases (or 17 percent) involved
                                allegations of other crimes in addition to PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud,
                                such as health insurance fraud, tax fraud, or romance scams. 48
                                Additionally, 10 PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases involved criminal
                                groups—which we define as domestic or international criminal
                                47In our analysis, COVID-19 related crimes included, for example, unemployment benefits

                                fraud, theft of government funds, small business grant fraud, healthcare fraud, Economic
                                Impact Payment (stimulus check) fraud, fraudulent COVID-19 tests and personal
                                protective equipment, and RRF fraud.
                                48Romance scams occur when a criminal adopts a fake online identity to gain a victim’s
                                affection and trust. The scammer then uses the illusion of a romantic or close relationship
                                to manipulate or steal from the victim.




                                Page 32                                                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                  organizations involved in illicit activity—that allegedly engaged in SBA
                                  pandemic relief fraud alongside other criminal activity. This includes
                                  criminal charges for trade-based money laundering, identity theft, and
                                  illegal gambling. 49

Financial and Non-                Although the full extent of fraud associated with PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
Financial Impacts of PPP          is not yet known, we analyzed the 330 DOJ cases to identify the known
                                  fraud-related financial and non-financial impacts associated with PPP and
and COVID-19 EIDL Fraud           COVID-19 EIDL, as well as the potential impacts. 50 We determined the
Are Far Reaching, but Full        financial impacts of these fraud cases, both actual for closed cases and
Extent Is Not Yet Known           potential for ongoing cases, by calculating losses based on the amounts
                                  of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funding obtained. We calculated potential
                                  offsets based on the amounts of seizures and restitution. We also
                                  identified various types of non-financial impacts of fraud and potential
                                  fraud associated with PPP and COVID-19 EIDL. These downstream
                                  effects of fraud emphasize the importance of fraud prevention to avoid
                                  costly and far-reaching impacts of the “pay-and-chase” approach to
                                  managing fraud risks.

Financial Losses Associated       Our analysis of the closed and ongoing PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases
with Closed and Ongoing           revealed potentially several hundred million dollars in financial losses for
Cases Potentially Involve         both programs. Specifically, for the 155 closed cases, we calculated
Hundreds of Millions of Dollars   about $188 million in direct losses. For the 175 ongoing cases, we
                                  calculated about $314 million in potential losses. We also measured




                                  49Trade-based money laundering is the process of moving the value of the proceeds of
                                  crime through trade transactions to attempt to disguise its origins and integrate it into the
                                  formal economy. Basic techniques of trade-based money laundering include over- and
                                  under-invoicing of goods and services, multiple invoicing of goods and services, over- and
                                  under-shipments of goods and services, and false descriptions of goods and services.
                                  50The full extent of fraud is difficult to measure, particularly at this time. Investigations and

                                  prosecution of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases are ongoing at the time of this report and
                                  will continue. As previously discussed, the statute of limitations is 10 years for all forms of
                                  PPP and COVID-19 EIDL loan fraud. Additionally, fraud is difficult to measure because
                                  some fraud schemes may remain undetected by the government.




                                  Page 33                                                            GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                                   potential offsets from restitution orders, seizures, and recoveries
                                                   associated with PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases. 51

Costs of Investigation and Prosecution             Our analysis to determine the financial impacts of the 330 cases provides
Beyond direct losses from Paycheck                 insights into losses for closed cases and potential losses for ongoing
Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19              cases as well as potential offsets associated with closed and ongoing
Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19
EIDL) fraud, other costs associated with
                                                   cases, but it has limitations. This analysis is limited to the 330 cases we
detecting, investigating, and prosecuting fraud    identified from public sources and may not include all criminal and civil
cases can be significant. For example, there       cases charged by DOJ as of December 31, 2021. Additionally, details of
are monetary costs to the federal government
associated with law enforcement                    fraud cases and schemes presented in court documents may not be
investigations and Department of Justice           complete. For example, the dollar amounts applied for and obtained could
prosecutions. The 330 fraud cases associated
with PPP and COVID-19 EIDL, as well as             not be identified in all court documents. Further, cases at the prosecution
detection activities, ongoing investigations,      stage in the life cycle of fraudulent applications represent a small number
and prosecutions have required government          of the potential cases that exist in the overall population.
resources that are difficult to measure. Such
costs are not included in our calculation of the
financial impact of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL          For our financial impact analysis, we categorized cases based on whether
fraud.
Source: GAO. | GAO-23-105331
                                                   they were closed or ongoing as of December 31, 2021. Then we summed
                                                   amounts across cases to measure direct losses for closed cases,
                                                   potential losses for ongoing cases, and potential offsets for PPP and
                                                   COVID-19 EIDL. 52 Sums of potential offsets cannot be subtracted from
                                                   losses to arrive at the total cost of fraud for these programs because
                                                   potential offsets include restitution that has been ordered but not


                                                   51For this analysis, we describe losses as “direct losses” for closed cases because they
                                                   involve direct monetary costs to the federal government. We also describe losses as
                                                   “potential losses” for ongoing cases because these cases have not been resolved through
                                                   the judicial process. Additionally, we define potential offsets as monetary recoveries
                                                   ordered, received, or retained by the government. For closed cases, we measured PPP
                                                   and COVID-19 EIDL amount of restitution, recovery, seizure, or payment made, and for
                                                   ongoing cases, we measured PPP and COVID-19 EIDL amount seized. For restitution, we
                                                   included funds ordered to be paid to the government or the lender in connection with an
                                                   adjudicated finding of fraud. However, restitution is not always likely to be paid, which is
                                                   why we characterize the offsets as potential. We previously reported that collecting federal
                                                   criminal restitution is a long-standing challenge. GAO, Federal Criminal Restitution:
                                                   Department of Justice Has Ongoing Efforts to Improve Its Oversight of the Collection of
                                                   Restitution and Tracking the Use of Forfeited Assets, GAO-20-676R (Washington, D.C.:
                                                   Sept. 30, 2020).
                                                   52For this analysis, we defined financial losses as monetary losses—excluding time and

                                                   costs associated with fraud investigations—incurred by the federal government through
                                                   PPP and COVID-19 EIDL direct lending, grants, or government guarantees. We measured
                                                   these losses separately for ongoing and closed cases. For closed cases, we measured
                                                   (1) PPP and COVID-19 EIDL amounts obtained and (2) PPP lender fee amount. For
                                                   ongoing cases, we measured (1) PPP and COVID-19 EIDL amounts obtained and
                                                   (2) PPP lender fee amount at risk.




                                                   Page 34                                                        GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                                              necessarily repaid. Additionally, potential offsets may include costs to the
                                                              government, such as maintenance of seized assets, among others.

                                                              To calculate losses from the 330 cases, we used the reported amount of
                                                              PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funding obtained, as identified in court
                                                              documentation. For PPP, we also calculated lender fees associated with
                                                              the cases. 53 See table 2 for a breakdown of direct and potential losses,
                                                              which totaled about $502 million for PPP and COVID-19 EIDL based on
                                                              fraud case status as of December 31, 2021.

Table 2: Financial Losses (in Millions of Dollars) in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury
Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Based on Analysis of Department of Justice Fraud Cases, as of December 31, 2021

 Type of financial loss                                             PPP casesa                                      COVID-19 EIDL casesa
                                                        Direct                             Potential                   Direct                     Potential
                                           (127 closed cases)                   (133 ongoing cases)        (71 closed cases)            (90 ongoing cases)
 Funding provided                                            $168.6                              $272.8                  $14.4                          $34.2
 Lender fees                                                       $4.6                            $6.9                    NAb                            NAb
 Total financial losses                                      $173.2                              $279.7                  $14.4                          $34.2
Source: GAO analysis of Department of Justice information and court documents. | GAO-23-105331
                                                              a
                                                               Although our analysis includes 91 cases that involve both PPP and COVID-19 EIDL, we identified
                                                              and calculated funding provided to PPP and COVID-19 EIDL recipients separately for each program.
                                                              b
                                                               Lender fees for COVID-19 EIDL cases are not applicable (NA) because COVID-19 EIDL funds were
                                                              administered by Small Business Administration, without lender involvement.


                                                              Our analysis of potential offsets for financial losses included restitution
                                                              from closed cases and seizures from ongoing cases. We were able to
                                                              identify about $154.2 million in potential offsets for PPP and COVID-19
                                                              EIDL as of December 31, 2021. However, the case documentation we
                                                              reviewed did not always identify potential offset amounts. 54




                                                              53Lender fees are the processing fees SBA paid to the lender once the PPP loan was fully
                                                              disbursed, as mandated by the CARES Act, Pub. L. No. 116-136, § 1102 (as added at 15
                                                              U.S.C. § 636(a)(36)(P)). To calculate lender fees, we matched businesses identified in
                                                              DOJ cases that received PPP loans with PPP loan-level data. For matched businesses,
                                                              we calculated lender fees based on the amount of the loan and applicable percentages
                                                              established by SBA. According to an interim final rule published on June 1, 2020, lender
                                                              fees are subject to clawback if SBA determines that a lender has not fulfilled its obligations
                                                              under PPP regulations, with some limitations.
                                                              54Offset amounts were available for 79 closed and 29 ongoing cases involving PPP and

                                                              44 closed and 12 ongoing cases involving COVID-19 EIDL (38 cases involved both PPP
                                                              and COVID-19 EIDL).




                                                              Page 35                                                            GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                              Fraud measurement is a challenging endeavor, subject to varying
                                              definitions, measurements, and available data, among other limitations.
                                              As such, other federal agencies may develop different fraud
                                              measurements that may also cover different time periods. For example,
                                              SBA OIG officials told us that, as of May 31, 2022, PPP and COVID-19
                                              EIDL potential losses amounted to roughly $1.15 billion. This figure was
                                              calculated based on amounts identified in indictments and other charging
                                              court documents.

Non-Financial Impacts of PPP                  Beyond financial losses directly associated with PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
and COVID-19 EIDL Fraud Are                   funds, our analysis of 330 fraud cases identified several types of non-
Wide Ranging                                  financial impacts, or nonmonetary effects of fraudulent activity, associated
                                              with PPP and COVID-19 EIDL. Both directly and indirectly, PPP and
                                              COVID-19 EIDL fraud affected businesses, individuals, and stakeholders.
                                              For example, fraud affected SBA’s achievement of economic relief goals,
                                              some businesses could not immediately access needed funds, and lives
                                              of numerous individuals were affected by fraudsters using their identities
                                              to commit fraud. See table 3 for the types of non-financial impacts
                                              associated with PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud we identified.

Table 3: Non-Financial Impacts of Fraud in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan
(COVID-19 EIDL)

Non-financial impact type               Affected parties and impact
Economic relief goal                    Federal government’s ability to achieve PPP and COVID-19 EIDL goals to assist small
                                        businesses adversely affected by COVID-19
Stakeholder                             Federal partners’ and lender stakeholders’ resource commitments in responding to PPP and
                                        COVID-19 EIDL fraud
Security                                Local communities and U.S. security interests harmed through misuse of pandemic relief funds
                                        by criminal groups
Reputation                              U.S. government institutions distrusted by the public
Impact on victim                        Fraud victims harmed through identity theft
Impact on fraudster                     Fraudsters suffered consequences after being caught
Source: GAO analysis. | GAO-23-105331

                                              Note: The impact types are not all encompassing or inclusive of all possible ways pandemic relief
                                              fraud can manifest itself.


                                              Economic Relief Goal Impact

                                              The diversion of funds from PPP and COVID-19 EIDL by fraudsters
                                              mitigated the broader effectiveness of economic relief goals to assist
                                              small businesses and their employees affected by the pandemic. Funds
                                              diverted by fraudsters were unavailable to eligible businesses who could



                                              Page 36                                                              GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
have used them for payroll, rent, or other qualified business expenses.
Specifically, in 2020, PPP and COVID-19 EIDL advance ran out of funds,
leaving some small businesses temporarily unable to obtain needed
relief.

Further, some fraudulently obtained funds were redirected from
supporting payroll and other small business needs into other economic
activity. Specifically, fraudsters placed unlawfully obtained funds into
communities and the economy through the purchases of luxury goods
such as apparel and jewelry, real estate, and vehicles and by paying
debts, making home improvements, and securing investments, among
other things. Individuals were charged with using PPP and COVID-19
EIDL funds to purchase luxury goods, such as Rolex watches and items
from Louis Vuitton, Burberry, Christian Louboutin, Dolce & Gabbana, and
Gucci. A number of individuals were also charged with purchasing luxury
vehicles, such as products from Cadillac, Ferrari, Mercedes, Rolls Royce,
or Tesla, as well as a Harley-Davidson motorcycle. Individuals were also
charged with purchases involving cryptocurrency, firearms, farm animals,
radio air time, and a political campaign donation.

Our analysis identified 203 of 330 cases (or 62 percent) and about
$449.3 million in PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds that involved charges of
asset misappropriation. 55 Specifically, individuals were charged with
redirecting PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds to a broad range of ineligible
expenses, as shown in figure 8. In some cases, they were charged with
redirecting funds to multiple categories of ineligible expenses.




 Not all PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds in fraud cases may have been misappropriated
55

and redirected to ineligible purposes.




Page 37                                                  GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Figure 8: Number of Paycheck Protection Program and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan Cases Involving Department
of Justice Charges of Asset Misappropriation, by Type of Ineligible Expense, as of December 31, 2021




                                       Note: The types of expenses are not mutually exclusive, and a single case may have more than one
                                       expense type.
                                       a
                                        Personal financial transactions include, but are not limited to, personal debt payoff, domestic
                                       investments, kickback payments, and purchases of cryptocurrency.
                                       b
                                        Examples of items in this category include personal property, alcohol, farm animals, political
                                       campaign donations, and firearms.


                                       Further, rather than benefitting small businesses and the economy in the
                                       United States, fraudsters redirected a portion of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
                                       funds internationally. Specifically, in 19 closed cases, fraudsters diverted
                                       $4.5 million to other countries around the world (see fig. 9).




                                       Page 38                                                                 GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Figure 9: Foreign Jurisdictions to Which Fraudsters Redirected Funds from Paycheck Protection Program and COVID-19
Economic Injury Disaster Loan, as of February 2023




                                       Cases involving PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds being redirected
                                       overseas will likely continue to emerge. According to SBA OIG officials,
                                       as law enforcement continues to investigate instances of suspected fraud,
                                       there will be a greater focus on international fraud schemes. However,
                                       they noted that such cases take time to bring to prosecution, in part
                                       because of the time needed to obtain information from foreign
                                       jurisdictions.

                                       Stakeholder Impact

                                       Fraud and potential fraud in PPP and COVID-19 EIDL affected SBA’s
                                       stakeholders—law enforcement and PPP lenders in the private sector.

                                       Investigation and prosecution of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud cases
                                       demanded the resources of law enforcement agencies and DOJ. Our
                                       analysis of the 330 fraud cases determined that 48 federal law
                                       enforcement agencies conducted investigations of suspected PPP and
                                       COVID-19 EIDL fraud, with agencies frequently collaborating to
                                       investigate cases. According to SBA OIG officials, investigating pandemic
                                       relief fraud has consumed significant law enforcement resources. They
                                       explained that despite doubling the number of OIG agents, the scale of
                                       pandemic relief fraud still exceeds their investigative capacity. For
                                       example, in a June 2022 testimony, the SBA Inspector General reported



                                       Page 39                                                GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
that with almost 70 criminal investigators, the office was outmatched by
hundreds of thousands of investigative leads and had 399 open
investigations involving PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud. 56

Our analysis of the 330 fraud cases further indicates that U.S. Attorneys
in 78 of 94 federal districts had filed fraud-related charges involving PPP
and COVID-19 EIDL. According to DOJ officials, prosecution of
pandemic-related fraud cases placed a strain on the agency by adding to
existing workloads without additional resources.

Lenders targeted by PPP-related fraud schemes can also incur costs
associated with the time and resources needed to conduct internal
investigations and report suspicious activity. As we previously reported,
from April to October 2020, over 1,400 financial institutions filed over
21,000 suspicious activity reports related to PPP. 57 Further, as cases are
being investigated, financial institutions must respond to subpoenas,
which require production of records and interviews with agents. Additional
impact on lenders is associated with potential compliance risks such as
violations of anti-money laundering requirements and potential liability for
aiding unlawful activity by borrowers or perpetuating that activity through
complacency, along with associated reputational impacts. 58

Security Impact

Funds fraudulently obtained from SBA pandemic relief programs were
used to fund criminal activity, such as drugs and guns, putting
communities at risk. Our analysis of the 330 PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
fraud cases identified charges in 10 cases involving criminal groups. For

56Examining Federal Efforts to Prevent, Detect, and Prosecute Pandemic Relief Fraud to
Safeguard Funds for All Eligible Americans, Before the House Select Subcommittee on
the Coronavirus Crisis of the Committee on Oversight and Reform, 117th Cong., 117-86,
June 14, 2022.

 GAO, COVID-19: Critical Vaccine Distribution, Supply Chain, Program Integrity, and
57

Other Challenges Require Focused Federal Attention, GAO-21-265 (Washington, D.C.:
Jan. 28, 2021).
58Lenders must comply with the applicable lender obligations set forth in SBA interim final

rules. Lenders, however, will be held harmless for borrowers’ failure to comply with
program criteria and will not be subject to any enforcement action or penalty relating to
loan origination or forgiveness of the PPP loan if the lender acts in good faith relating to
the origination or forgiveness of the PPP loan and satisfies all other applicable federal,
state, local, and other statutory or regulatory requirements. Pub. L. No. 116-260, div. N, tit.
III, § 305, 134 Stat. 1182, 1996-97 (2020).




Page 40                                                          GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
example, in December 2020, members of an organized crime group were
charged with bank fraud and money laundering associated with PPP as
well as racketeering and extortion involving illegal gambling. Also, a
September 2022 SBA OIG report stated that the SBA OIG has ongoing
investigations into international organized crime operations that applied
for and obtained pandemic relief funds. 59

Reputational Impact

High incidence of fraud can lead to public perception that pandemic relief
funds are easy to obtain fraudulently and make the government a target
for further and future exploitation. Additionally, public perception of
widespread fraud in pandemic relief programs can erode trust in
government—confidence in the ability to manage taxpayer dollars,
prevent fraud, and pursue justice. According to DOJ officials, instances of
fraud can normalize additional fraudulent behavior, which increases
cynicism and leads the public to believe that “fraud happens all the time.”
The officials further emphasized that DOJ prosecutes fraud to restore
faith in government by seeking justice, recovering stolen funds, and
illustrating that the government holds bad actors accountable. As such,
according to DOJ officials, most cases of pandemic relief fraud are
publicized in press releases to deter others from committing fraud and to
promote trust in government.

Impact on Victim

Through identity theft, pandemic relief fraudsters victimized individuals by
inflicting damage to their financial as well as psychological health.
According to DOJ, victims of identity theft have had their bank accounts
wiped out, credit histories ruined, and jobs and valuable possessions
taken away. In pandemic relief fraud cases, according to DOJ officials,
identity theft affected victims through (1) negative impacts on credit,
(2) inability to access benefits to which victims were entitled but denied
because prior claims had been filed using their identity, (3) susceptibility
to other types of fraud, and (4) time and effort spent rectifying issues
related to identity theft.

Identity theft also can affect victims’ physical and psychological health, by
contributing to anxiety, sleeplessness, and depression, among other


59SBA OIG, COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan Applications Submitted from

Foreign IP Addresses, 22-17 (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 12, 2022).




Page 41                                                  GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
symptoms. According to DOJ, the emotional trauma associated with
identity theft can be as devastating as many of the most violent offenses.

Impact on Fraudster

When crime is committed, fraudsters may experience a sense of
satisfaction from illicit enrichment. Once caught, however, they can
experience prison time, financial penalties, loss of employment, and
unfavorable publicity, while also inflicting emotional distress on their
families. For example, one couple that fled before sentencing in a PPP
and COVID-19 EIDL case admitted that their actions brought danger and
fear to their children. Another fraudster, who lost his job as a senior
government official, expressed shame and remorse for abusing the
program while being entrusted to be a good steward of government
resources.

In addition to the costs of incarceration and supervision borne by the
federal government and ultimately U.S. taxpayers, loss of personal
freedom as a result of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud affected many
fraudsters. Our analysis identified 80 closed PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
criminal cases where individuals were sentenced to prison, supervised
release, or probation. Across these cases, 94 individuals had been
sentenced to prison, cumulatively sentenced to serving over
3,500 months, with an average sentence of about 37 months. Eighty-nine
individuals were sentenced to a cumulative 3,400 months of supervised
release. Additionally, nine individuals were sentenced to serve a
cumulative 310 months of probation. Some defendants had sentences
that included prison and supervised release. According to DOJ,
individuals who are sentenced under certain statutes are mandated to
also receive a term of supervised release after the term of incarceration.
See figure 10 for information on sentencing ranges for individuals
sentenced to prison, probation, and supervised release.




Page 42                                            GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Figure 10: Sentencing Ranges for Individuals Sentenced to Prison, Probation, and Supervised Release for Crimes Involving
Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL), as of December 31, 2021




                                        Notes: This analysis is based on 80 closed PPP and COVID-19 EIDL criminal cases that reached the
                                        sentencing phase as of December 31, 2021. Some defendants received sentences requiring
                                        supervised release following their prison term, and thus may be represented more than once in this
                                        figure.




                                        Page 43                                                            GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Our Analysis Reveals
Millions of PPP and
COVID-19 EIDL
Recipients with Fraud
Indicators, and
Certain Lenders
Originated Higher
Rates of Fraudulent
PPP Loans
Results of Select Data     Our analysis of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL data identified over 3.7 million
Analyses Identified Over   out of 13.4 million total unique recipients with discrepancies associated
                           with potential fraud. 60 We compared loan- and advance-level data to
3.7 Million Unique PPP
                           National Directory of New Hires (NDNH) wage data to identify unique
and COVID-19 EIDL          recipients with fraud indicators associated with potential
Recipients with Fraud      misrepresentations of business operating status, employee counts, or
Indicators                 payroll costs. 61 We further analyzed loan- and advance-level data for the
                           presence of fraud indicators associated with the potential
                           misrepresentation of business or identification information. Finally, we
                           compared our results of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL data analyses to

                           60Throughout this section of the report, we refer to “unique recipients” of loans and
                           advances. In doing so, we refer specifically to unique individuals or entities who received
                           PPP or COVID-19 EIDL funds. As discussed in appendix I, to identify these unique
                           recipients we matched certain identifiers, such as business name and address, within and
                           across programs. Some unique recipients appear only once in either program, while
                           others appear multiple times within or across programs. In all of the analyses described in
                           this section, a unique recipient is counted only once in the results being described,
                           regardless of how many loan or advance records were associated with that recipient. All
                           unique recipient counts throughout this section are presented rounded to the nearest
                           multiple of 100, except where the count is less than 1,000 or more than one million.
                           61PPP loan-level data were submitted to SBA by PPP lenders. For the purposes of our
                           analyses, these lender-submitted data are considered to be the information submitted by
                           the applicants.

                           NDNH is a national repository of new hire, quarterly wage, and unemployment insurance
                           information reported by employers, states, and federal agencies. The NDNH is maintained
                           and used by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services for the federal child
                           support enforcement program, which assists states in locating parents and enforcing child
                           support orders. SBA does not have access to NDNH wage data. However, similar
                           information, such as number of employees and wages paid, can be found on the
                           employer’s federal tax return and other employer filings.




                           Page 44                                                        GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
determine the extent to which unique recipients had fraud indicators
across both programs.

Fraud indicators are characteristics and flags that serve as warning signs
suggesting a potential for fraudulent activity. Indicators can be used to
identify potential fraud and assess fraud risk but are not proof of fraud,
which is determined through the judicial or other adjudicative system. The
fraud indicators we identified are based on discrepancies found in the
data consistent with characteristics and flags that suggest a potential for
fraudulent activity.

It is possible that the results of our analyses include non-fraudulent
recipients with one or more data discrepancies that were identified as
fraud indicators. There are multiple factors that may explain why a non-
fraudulent recipient has a discrepancy consistent with a fraud indicator.
One such factor is data entry errors by recipients or those involved in the
approval of funds. There may also be other types of factors contributing to
the identification of non-fraudulent recipients. Consequently, the results of
our analyses should not be interpreted as proof of fraud. As discussed
below, we took steps to reduce the number of non-fraudulent recipients
identified. Additional review, investigation, and adjudication is needed to
determine if and the extent to which fraud exists.

Additionally, the results of our analyses may also include recipients
(1) whom DOJ has prosecuted for fraud, (2) who may be subject to
ongoing investigations, 62 (3) whose loans or advances were flagged by
SBA for other reasons but not pursued as potential fraud, or (4) whose
loans or advances were not flagged by SBA based on fraud indicators.
Therefore, this may include recipients already flagged by SBA or the SBA
OIG as potentially fraudulent.

For both PPP and COVID-19 EIDL, SBA has developed oversight plans
that include automated and manual reviews to help identify and refer
potentially fraudulent loans and advances to the SBA OIG. 63 According to
SBA,


 Investigative agencies do not typically comment on ongoing investigations.
62


63As part of our objectives, we did not assess SBA’s processes for conducting automated
and manual reviews to help identify and refer potentially fraudulent loans and advances to
the SBA OIG. We, therefore, do not opine on the appropriateness of its processes or the
accuracy and completeness of its referrals to the SBA OIG. We plan to undertake a
comprehensive review of SBA’s review processes.




Page 45                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
•    for PPP, it conducted automated screenings of all 12.5 million
     approved PPP applications, using 19 alert categories for potential
     fraud and ineligibility. This step identified about 2.9 million loans and
     applications. SBA then employed data analytics to prioritize loans that
     presented the highest risk of fraud or ineligibility. SBA employees and
     contractors then examined about 315,000 loans and applications
     prioritized as representing the highest risk to determine if fraud or
     ineligibility was likely. Based on this examination, SBA referred over
     134,000 PPP loans it determined likely to be fraudulent to the SBA
     OIG.

•    for COVID-19 EIDL, it conducted automated and manual screenings
     of 36.7 million applications for inconsistencies and indicators
     associated with ineligibility or fraud. SBA then employed data
     analytics, flagging about 3.4 million applications. When notified of a
     fraud concern, SBA loan officers performed manual reviews of the file.
     Based on this review, SBA referred approximately 2.5 million
     applications and 535,000 disbursed COVID-19 EIDL loans and
     advances to the SBA OIG.

Given that differences exist between the indicators used and how we did
our analyses and how SBA conducted its reviews, it is possible that we
flagged a recipient who also had a loan or advance flagged by SBA for
different reasons. Therefore, even if SBA determined through its process
that a loan or advance disbursed to a recipient we flagged did not
represent the highest risk of fraud and therefore did not refer it to the SBA
OIG, the recipients we flagged warrant further review based on our
analyses.

SBA does not have access to the NDNH wage data we used for certain
analyses and therefore could not have performed the same analyses as
us. 64 The intent of our analyses was to identify recipients with fraud
indicators who may warrant further review and investigation and to
understand SBA’s exposure to fraud risk and how some recipients may
have taken advantage of those risks in pandemic relief programs. Our
analyses were limited to identifying recipients with fraud indicators and,
therefore, did not include additional reviews necessary to identify
recipients who represented the highest risk of fraud.


 Federal law restricts access to the NDNH database to authorized persons and entities,
64

and for authorized uses. As of May 2023, SBA was not an authorized user of the NDNH
database and, as such, did not have access to NDNH wage data.




Page 46                                                     GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Where applicable, as described with our analyses’ results and in
appendix I, we established thresholds when associating unique recipients
with fraud indicators. These thresholds allowed variability in business
characteristics (e.g., number of employees, payroll costs) over time. The
use of such thresholds also helped minimize the inclusion of non-
fraudulent recipients (false positives) where possible. For example, for the
purposes of our analysis, if a business was recorded in NDNH as having
150 employees, that recipient would not be associated with a fraud
indicator if it reported 160 employees on its PPP application. However, if
that recipient reported 166 or more employees on its PPP application, we
associated it with a fraud indicator because the employee count
discrepancy exceeded our threshold.

See figure 11 for the fraud indicators and summary results of our
analyses. These fraud indicators are consistent with characteristics we
identified in DOJ cases and related fraud schemes.




Page 47                                             GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Figure 11: Unique Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL)
Recipients with Fraud Indicators




                                       a
                                        Unique recipients were identified by a combination of business and personal identifiers. As such, one
                                       unique recipient may be associated with more than one loan or advance. Unique recipient counts in
                                       this table greater than 1,000 are presented rounded to the nearest multiple of 100. Throughout the
                                       remainder of the section, counts are presented rounded to the nearest multiple of 100, except where
                                       the count is less than 1,000 or more than one million.
                                       b
                                        COVID-19 EIDL loan amounts were not related to employee counts as PPP forgiveness amounts
                                       were. Therefore, our analyses related to different employee totals considered only PPP recipients and
                                       did not include COVID-19 EIDL recipients.
                                       c
                                         COVID-19 EIDL loan and advance amounts were not directly related to payroll costs as PPP loan
                                       amounts were. Therefore, our analyses related to wages paid or payroll expenses considered only
                                       PPP recipients and did not include COVID-19 EIDL recipients.




                                       Page 48                                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
d
 The fraud indicator related to providing different information to each program compares PPP and
COVID-19 EIDL information where unique recipients were identified in both programs. There are no
unique recipients for this indicator who were identified in only one of the programs.
e
 The total number of unique recipients with fraud indicators may include (1) recipients who the
Department of Justice has prosecuted for fraud, (2) recipients who may be subject to ongoing
investigations, (3) recipients whose loans or advances were flagged by the Small Business
Administration (SBA) for other reasons but not pursued as potential fraud, (4) recipients whose loans
or advances were not flagged by SBA based on fraud indicators, and (5) non-fraudulent recipients
with data discrepancies consistent with fraud indicators. This may, therefore, include recipients
already flagged by SBA or the SBA Office of Inspector General (OIG) as potentially fraudulent. The
results of our analyses, including the identification of discrepancies associated with a fraud indicator,
should not be interpreted as proof of fraud.


Of the over 3.7 million unique recipients with fraud indicators in at least
one of the programs, we identified almost 394,300 unique recipients with
fraud indicators in both programs. 65 Further, we identified 672 unique
recipients with at least three fraud indicators in both programs, indicating
a higher risk of fraud for those recipients.

We referred the over 3.7 million unique recipients with fraud indicators
that we identified through our analyses to the SBA OIG for review,
investigation, and further action as appropriate. Our referral provides the
SBA OIG with additional data, particularly as it relates to our NDNH
analyses, to inform and prioritize its investigative efforts. In making our
referral, we requested that the SBA OIG provide us with information on
how many of those unique recipients had already been identified by or
referred to that office for investigation. This could include, for example,
recipients referred to the SBA OIG by SBA. However, the SBA OIG
explained it is currently developing and assessing a dataset that includes
information received through its hotline and other sources that pertain to
potential fraud. As such, the dataset is not currently available for the
match we requested. The SBA OIG indicated that when the dataset is
available, which is anticipated in late spring 2023, it will endeavor to
respond to our request. 66

Other auditors have also identified instances of potential fraud and fraud
risks in SBA’s pandemic relief programs. For example, SBA’s financial
auditor found material weaknesses with PPP loan guarantees for fiscal
year 2022. Specifically, the auditor found issues with SBA’s ability to

 Approximately 2.1 million unique recipients received funds from both PPP and COVID-19
65

EIDL.
66According to the SBA OIG, the development of this dataset is part of an ongoing fraud
landscape review to develop a comprehensive estimate of the potential fraud in the PPP
and EIDL portfolios.




Page 49                                                                 GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
conduct complete and accurate reviews of eligibility flags due to the
inadequate design and implementation of controls. 67 This led the auditor
to recommend that SBA perform a thorough review of 2021 PPP loan
guarantees and, for loans that it determines to be not in conformance with
statutory and program requirements, identify the impact on the
outstanding loan guarantee and the eligibility for forgiveness.

Similarly, the auditor determined that for COVID-19 EIDL, SBA disbursed
funds to borrowers

•    with fraudulent tax identification numbers (ID);
•    flagged by SBA as potentially fraudulent, a victim of identity theft, or
     with an associated SBA OIG investigation; and
•    with eligibility concerns.
Further, according to the financial auditor, there were a total of
182,298 approved and disbursed loans (with a total value of $15.6 billion)
flagged within SBA’s loan repository system that were potentially issued
to ineligible borrowers as of September 30, 2022. This led the auditor to
recommend that SBA perform a thorough review of loans under COVID-
19 EIDL and determine which transactions were not in conformance with
the CARES Act and related legislation and provided to ineligible
recipients.

As noted in our April 2023 High Risk update, SBA will need to develop a
corrective action plan to address the material weaknesses related to PPP
and COVID-19 EIDL.




67SBA OIG, 23-02 (Nov. 15, 2022). Similarly, for fiscal year 2021, the financial auditor
found that SBA did not adequately design and implement controls to ensure the 2020
cohort of PPP loan guarantees were completely and accurately reviewed to address their
respective eligibility flags and ultimately determine their eligibility for forgiveness. See SBA
OIG, 22-05. For fiscal year 2020, the financial auditor noted that there were over 2 million
approved PPP loan guarantees (with an approximate total value of $189 billion) flagged by
SBA that were potentially not in conformance with the CARES Act and related legislation.
See SBA OIG, 21-04.




Page 50                                                          GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Almost 2.2 Million Unique                            PPP and COVID-19 EIDL limited eligibility to businesses in operation as
Recipients Claimed Employees                         of February 15, 2020, and January 31, 2020, respectively. 68 Our
but Did Not Match Wage Data                          comparison of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL loan- and advance-level data to
                                                     NDNH wage data identified almost 2.2 million unique recipients who
                                                     claimed two or more employees on their applications but did not match
We Compared Businesses that Claimed
Two or More Employees to Wage Data                   any NDNH wage data available for our analyses (for the period from
Our analysis of Paycheck Protection Program          October 2019 through September 2020). 69 This indicates that these
and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan           recipients may have obtained PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds for non-
data identified 13.4 million unique recipients
across both programs. Of these, 6.1 million
                                                     operating businesses, such as shell companies or fictitious businesses, or
unique recipients claimed two or more                for businesses that were not in operation by the respective eligibility cut-
employees on their applications. Self-               off dates. Our analysis of the 330 PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud cases
employed individuals with no employees were
to report no more than one employee on an            charged by DOJ showed that over two-thirds of the cases involved or
application for either program. Consequently,        allegedly involved non-operating businesses. See sidebar, as well as
they are not included in this analysis.
                                                     appendix I, for further details on how we performed our analysis.
We compared the 6.1 million unique recipients
who claimed two or more employees to
National Directory of New Hires (NDNH) wage          Specifically, our analysis identified the following:
data to identify recipients with fraud indicators.
Specific analyses included identifying
recipients without matching NDNH wage data           •    PPP. Almost 772,500 unique PPP recipients did not match any NDNH
and recipients with discrepancies between                 wage data. Of these, almost 15,000 had received 100 percent
application and NDNH wage data and
employee counts.                                          forgiveness for loans totaling approximately $10 billion as of
Source: GAO. | GAO-23-105331                              December 31, 2021. 70 Although PPP provided “safe harbor”
                                                          exceptions to allow for employee reductions, these recipients received
                                                          100 percent loan forgiveness though they did not match any wage


                                                     68SBA allowed COVID-19 EIDL businesses in the process of starting operations as of

                                                     January 31, 2020, to participate as long as certain documentation was provided to show
                                                     that the business was in the organizing stage.
                                                     69SBA program guidance directed individuals without employees to report themselves as
                                                     the sole employee on their applications. Our analysis compared only those applicants who
                                                     claimed two or more employees on their applications. Independent contractors and self-
                                                     employed individuals—who do not pay employees and therefore do not submit wage
                                                     data—were not considered in our analysis if they claimed one employee on their
                                                     application. Seasonal businesses that were in operation prior to October 2019, but did not
                                                     submit wage data between October 2019 and September 2020, may be included in the
                                                     unique recipients with fraud indicators identified in this analysis. Businesses that were in
                                                     the organizing stages and had not yet paid employees were eligible for COVID-19 EIDL
                                                     funds and would not be considered in this analysis if they did not claim employees.
                                                     70One general requirement for 100 percent forgiveness of PPP loans was to maintain

                                                     employee counts through the period following loan disbursement (ranging from 8 to
                                                     24 weeks). Program rules allowed that, if the average employee count during the loan
                                                     coverage period was less than the average employee count referenced on the loan
                                                     application, the total amount of loan forgiveness could be equivalently reduced. For
                                                     example, if 90 percent of employees were retained, 90 percent of the total loan amount
                                                     may have been forgiven.




                                                     Page 51                                                        GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
     data and did not claim those exceptions. “Safe harbors” enabled SBA
     to allow applicants exceptions to general forgiveness requirements
     due to circumstances beyond their control, including mandated
     shutdowns or employees who chose not to return to work when
     offered the opportunity to do so. 71
•    COVID-19 EIDL. Almost 1.6 million unique COVID-19 EIDL recipients
     did not match any NDNH wage data. Approximately 672,000 of these
     recipients received approximately $3.8 billion in COVID-19 EIDL
     advances—which do not need to be repaid—but were denied loans or
     withdrew their applications after the advance was approved. The
     CARES Act required that SBA distribute advances based on applicant
     self-certification and provided that an applicant shall not be required to
     repay an advance even if subsequently denied a loan. However, a
     denial or withdrawal could indicate that the recipient did not meet
     program eligibility requirements and may have falsely self-certified.
About 155,400 of the 2.2 million unique recipients identified in our
comparison to NDNH wage data received both PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
funds. These cross-program recipients who claimed two or more
employees on their applications but did not match NDNH wage data
collectively received over $27.2 billion in funds. (See text box for
illustrative example.)




71As of December 31, 2021, 7.3 million unique PPP loan recipients had applied for any
amount of loan forgiveness. Loan forgiveness data indicated that, of these, approximately
67,200 claimed safe harbor related to employee counts on the full-length forgiveness
application, 6.3 million applied for forgiveness using SBA form 3508S (by signing form
3508S, applicants agree that they either met forgiveness requirements or met safe harbor
requirements), and 1.1 million applied using the simplified form 3508EZ (SBA forgiveness
data did not indicate if 3508EZ applicants claimed to meet safe harbor requirements or to
meet forgiveness requirements). This forgiveness-related discussion considers only the
approximately 143,600 unique recipients who used the full-length application form and did
not claim safe harbor. For 32 of the 595 days considered in our analysis (5 percent of the
days) the full-length forgiveness application did not include the checkboxes for applicants
to indicate that safe harbor requirements were met. As a result, forgiveness-related
discussions may include some recipients who met safe harbor requirements during this
timeframe.
Out of about 3.1 million unique PPP recipients we matched to NDNH wage data, almost
3 million requested any amount of forgiveness as of December 31, 2021. Over 2.9 million
of these received 100 percent loan forgiveness.




Page 52                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
     Individual provided falsified documentation to support application for non-
     existent businesses.
     Our analysis identified one recipient who submitted applications to both the Paycheck
     Protection Program and the COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan program for
     two separate businesses. The individual claimed more than 100 total employees, but
     neither business had matching National Directory of New Hires (NDNH) wage data.
     According to Department of Justice (DOJ) case documentation, the recipient also
     claimed average monthly payroll costs in excess of $100,000 per month for each
     business and submitted falsified documents to support those claims. This individual
     obtained over $1.1 million in combined funds from both programs. This individual pled
     guilty to charges of bank fraud and money laundering.

Source: GAO analysis of DOJ information, court documents, and Small Business Administration and NDNH data. | GAO-23-105331



Some non-fraudulent PPP or COVID-19 EIDL recipients who claimed two
or more employees on their applications may not match NDNH wage data
for legitimate reasons. For example, SBA officials suggested that
businesses may not have filed or were late to submit wage-related
information to state workforce agencies, which are a source of NDNH
wage data. We acknowledge the possibility that some PPP or COVID-19
EIDL recipients were not in compliance with state workforce agency
reporting requirements. This possibility does not negate the risk that the
same individuals misrepresented information on their PPP and COVID-19
EIDL applications.

Another possible reason that some unique recipients may not match
NDNH wage data relates to reporting requirements for specific business
types. For example, sole proprietors and independent contractors who do
not pay employees are not required to report wage-related data that is
eventually housed in the NDNH. We sought to mitigate the possibility of
identifying sole proprietors and independent contractors as potentially
non-operating businesses by limiting our comparison to recipients who
claimed two or more employees on their PPP or COVID-19 EIDL
applications. However, in October 2021, the SBA OIG found that SBA
had distributed $4.5 billion in COVID-19 EIDL advances to sole
proprietors and independent contractors who incorrectly claimed
employees. 72 Specifically, the SBA OIG found:

•       542,897 sole proprietors, who received an advance of more than
        $1,000, applied for the COVID-19 EIDL advances without an

 SBA OIG, SBA’S Emergency EIDL Grants to Sole Proprietors and Independent
72

Contractors, 22-01 (Oct. 7, 2021).




Page 53                                                                              GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
       employer identification number (EIN) and claimed two or more
       employees on their applications. The absence of an EIN indicates the
       sole proprietor applicants should have claimed no employees.
•      161,197 independent contractors, who received an advance of more
       than $1,000, also applied but did not provide an EIN and claimed two
       or more employees on their COVID-19 EIDL applications.
The sole proprietors and independent contractors identified by SBA OIG
would be associated with a fraud indicator as a result of our analyses, as
they incorrectly claimed two or more employees on their applications but
did not have corresponding records in NDNH wage data.

There are also specific categories of businesses that are not always
required to report wage-related data to the systems that feed into NDNH.
For example, many states do not require the following business types to
report:

•      religious organizations,
•      agricultural enterprises,
•      nonprofit organizations, or
•      “very small” businesses paying less than $10,000 per year in wages.
To the extent possible based on available data, we excluded these
business types, as well as businesses with tribal affiliation, from the
results of our analysis of recipients who did not match NDNH wage data
(see appendix I for additional details). As such, the results of our
comparison of loan- and advance-level data to wage data presented
above do not include approximately 113,200 recipients who applied as
nonprofit organizations, 93,100 religious organizations, or
248,500 agricultural enterprises that received PPP or COVID-19 EIDL
funds but that we could not match to NDNH wage data. 73 However, there
have been fraud cases involving some of the business types we excluded
from our analysis of recipients who did not match NDNH wage data (see
text box for illustrative examples).




73  No “very small” businesses were identified in this analysis.




Page 54                                                            GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
 Neighbors obtained COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL)
 funds for nonexistent farms.
 According to Department of Justice (DOJ) case information, two neighbors submitted
 four fraudulent applications for over $1.1 million in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)
 and COVID-19 EIDL funds. After obtaining PPP loans by making false representations
 regarding the number of employees and payroll for at least two businesses, the
 neighbors also submitted COVID-19 EIDL applications. One neighbor claimed to
 employ five individuals on a farm based in her yard, while the other neighbor claimed to
 employ 10 individuals. These farms and employees did not exist. The individuals
 received $287,500 in COVID-19 EIDL funds. Both neighbors pled guilty to conspiracy
 to commit wire fraud.
 Individual obtained Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) funds for non-
 operational nonprofit.
 According to DOJ case information, the chief executive officer (CEO) of a nonprofit that
 had been established in 2018 submitted loan applications through both PPP and
 COVID-19 EIDL. On the loan applications, the CEO claimed that the nonprofit had
 25 employees and supported that claim with falsified tax documentation. In reality, the
 nonprofit had no employees, income, or regular operations. SBA denied the application
 for COVID-19 EIDL funds. However, the CEO obtained $305,854 in PPP funds, which
 were used to purchase personal items. The CEO pled guilty to wire fraud.

Source: GAO analysis of DOJ information and court documents. | GAO-23-105331



We were able to match 116,900 recipients who applied as nonprofit
organizations, 15,600 religious organizations, 72,900 agricultural
enterprises and 1,300 very small businesses to the NDNH wage data. We
included these unique recipients in our other analyses, such as those
related to employee counts and payroll.




Page 55                                                                        GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Over 291,100 Unique PPP                         PPP loan forgiveness was directly related to maintaining employee
Recipients Reported Different                   numbers for up to 24 weeks following funding, except when previously
Employee Totals                                 discussed safe harbor exceptions applied.

                                                Our comparison of PPP loan application data to paid employees in NDNH
Employee Counts Are Not Static
                                                wage data identified over 291,100 unique recipients who may have
It is logical to assume that a business’s
employee count will change over time. Our       overstated employee totals. See sidebar, as well as appendix I, for further
analyses provided a 10 percent buffer for       details on how we performed our analysis. Our analysis of the 330 PPP
recipients with 10 or more employees and a
50 percent buffer for recipients with fewer
                                                and COVID-19 EIDL fraud cases charged by DOJ showed that 73 percent
than 10 employees to allow for variations       involved schemes in which individuals created fictitious employees and
across time.                                    inflated employee counts to obtain more funds.
In addition, as many businesses were
required to shut their doors to slow the
spread of the pandemic, it is expected that     Over 137,400 of the recipients we identified were associated with 10 or
many businesses had few or no paid              more employees in NDNH wage data. Within these 137,400, we identified
employees in the months during which most
PPP applications were submitted. Other
factors, such as seasonal business, could       •    over 61,600 unique recipients who reported between 10 and
also affect employee counts.                         50 percent more employees on their PPP applications;
However, Paycheck Protection Program
(PPP) applicants were generally instructed to   •    almost 16,600 unique recipients who reported 51 to 100 percent more
provide their average employee count for the
12-month period of their choice: 2019, 2020,
                                                     employees on their PPP applications; and
or the 12 months prior to the date of
application.
                                                •    almost 29,300 unique recipients who reported more than 100 percent
To be conservative, we used the highest—
                                                     more employees on their PPP applications. 74
rather than the average—count of paid
employees in National Directory of New          One of the requirements for 100 percent PPP loan forgiveness, except
Hires wage data prior to the PPP application    where safe harbor exceptions applied, was retaining employees for up to
date.
                                                24 weeks following funding. Of the 291,100 unique recipients who
Although there may be some variability
between the employee counts, differences        reported different employee totals, over 12,600 claimed to meet
that exceed the 10 or 50 percent buffers we     forgiveness requirements. They received 100 percent loan forgiveness
provided may indicate fraudulent application
information.
Source: GAO. | GAO-23-105331




                                                74All percentages discussed in these bullets are the percentage in excess of the 10 or
                                                50 percent buffer used in the analysis. For example, if a recipient was recorded in NDNH
                                                as having 150 employees, that recipient would be identified as potentially overstating
                                                employee counts if it reported 166 employees on the PPP application but not if it reported
                                                165 employees (10 percent buffer equivalent to 15 employees). That recipient would be
                                                included in the numbers described in these bullets if it reported 182, 249, or
                                                331 employees (10, 51, and more than 100 percent greater than the expected
                                                165 employees, respectively).




                                                Page 56                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
amounting to almost $13.5 billion as of December 31, 2021, although the
NDNH wage data do not support their claims of employee retention. 75

For example, one recipient identified in our analysis was a trucking
company that reported 499 employees on its April 2020 PPP application.
According to NDNH wage data, this business had paid no more than
32 employees in any single quarter between October 2019 and June
2020. This recipient received a $10 million loan that was 100 percent
forgiven.

SBA officials raised concerns that the difference between the PPP loan
application employee counts, which we used for our analysis, and the
NDNH paid employee counts could result from the amount of time
between when a recipient applied for a PPP loan and the available NDNH
employee data. However, as discussed previously and in appendix I, we
applied thresholds and buffers to limit the application of fraud indicators to
recipients who provided average employee counts for a period partially or
entirely outside the timeframe of the available NDNH wage data. In
addition, SBA OIG officials noted that that the employee counts provided
on forgiveness applications may be more accurate. The employee count
on the forgiveness application was to reflect the number of individuals
employed at the time of the original loan application, while the employee
count on the loan application was to generally reflect the average number
of employees over a defined 12-month period.

When we analyzed loan-level forgiveness data as of December 31, 2021,
we found that approximately 171,500 of the over 291,100 unique
recipients we identified in this analysis using the employee count on the
loan application reported lower initial employee counts on the forgiveness
application than they had reported on the loan application. Almost
125,900 of these recipients received 100 percent loan forgiveness,
despite the decrease in employee counts between applications. We then
repeated our analysis using employee counts reported at loan
forgiveness and found that approximately 1,700 of these 125,900 were

75PPP offered “safe harbors” to provide forgiveness without retaining employees, including
one that allows employers to exclude employees from their calculations if the employee
declined a written offer to return to work, was fired for cause, voluntarily resigned, or
requested a reduction in hours. See previous discussion of safe harbor claims and
forgiveness applications. This description of forgiven recipients considers only those
143,600 unique recipients who applied for loan forgiveness using the full-length
forgiveness form, SBA Form 3508, and did not claim safe harbor related to employee
counts as of December 31, 2021.




Page 57                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
still identified as reporting employee counts not supported by the NDNH
wage data and had received 100 percent loan forgiveness totaling over
$2.1 billion as of December 31, 2021, though they did not claim safe
harbor. 76

In addition, recipients may have overstated employee counts to support
greater forgivable loan amounts. PPP rules allowed recipients to consider
no more than $100,000 in annual wages per employee when reporting
payroll costs used to calculate total loan amounts. We identified over
291,100 unique PPP recipients who reported employee counts on their
applications that were more than 10 or 50 percent greater than the
number of paid employees in the NDNH wage data. Overstating the
number of employees on the application could potentially mask the
inclusion of individual employee wages in excess of $100,000 per year
since reporting more employees lowers the average payroll cost per
employee and consequently increases the forgivable loan amount.

SBA officials raised concerns that the methods and buffers we used in
our analyses were not sufficient to account for variations in business size,
especially during the pandemic, and as a result may overstate the extent
to which there were discrepancies between PPP loan-level data and
NDNH wage data. We believe our methods and buffers appropriately
account for such variations. Our results reflect SBA’s exposure to the risk
that otherwise eligible recipients may have inflated employee counts in an
effort to obtain more funds than they were entitled to. We also recognize
that the results of our analyses may include non-fraudulent recipients.

Additionally, SBA officials noted the possibility that some of the unique
recipients flagged in our analysis of employee counts may have been
businesses that underreported information to state workforce agencies,
which are a source of NDNH wage data. We acknowledge that it is
possible that some PPP recipients may have reported incorrect
information to state workforce agencies. This possibility does not negate
the risk that the same individuals may also have misrepresented
information on their PPP applications. The only way to determine the

76According to an SBA official, lenders inconsistently provided employee counts when
initially submitting applications on behalf of borrowers. Subsequently, some borrowers
directly submitted forgiveness applications. In addition, SBA OIG officials noted that the
employee count on the forgiveness applications may be more accurate than the employee
counts provided on the original loan application. This description of forgiven recipients
considers only those 143,600 unique recipients who applied for loan forgiveness using the
full-length forgiveness form, SBA Form 3508, and did not claim safe harbor related to
employee counts as of December 31, 2021.




Page 58                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                                 reason for the indicator’s presence is through additional inquiry or
                                                 investigation.

                                                 SBA officials also explained that some of the unique recipients we flagged
                                                 may have made good-faith errors on their PPP applications regarding
                                                 employee counts. Specifically, they explained that there was confusion
                                                 early in the program about counting full-time employees versus
                                                 calculating full-time equivalents. This confusion created the opportunity
                                                 for errors in, for example, how recipients accounted for part-time workers.
                                                 As we have acknowledged, the results of our analysis may include
                                                 recipients who made errors though they acted in good faith. However,
                                                 while the application forms and their instructions may have created
                                                 confusion that resulted in good-faith errors, the risk remains that the same
                                                 confusion may have provided opportunities for individuals seeking to
                                                 defraud the programs to do so.

Over 446,500 Unique PPP                          The amount of individual PPP loans was based primarily on the
Recipients Reported Different                    applicant’s average monthly payroll costs. 77 As such, one indicator of
Payroll Costs for Calculating                    fraud is payroll costs on a PPP application greater than the costs
Loan Amounts                                     supported by NDNH wage data, potentially to obtain a larger loan. We
                                                 identified over 446,500 unique PPP recipients who received loans larger
                                                 than expected based on our calculations using NDNH wage data.

Estimating Wage-Based Payroll Costs
We used available National Directory of New
Hires (NDNH) wage data to estimate wage-
based payroll costs. We then used these
wage-based payroll costs to estimate
maximum eligible Paycheck Protection
Program loan amounts.
We used the following data to estimate wage-
based payroll costs:
•   Paid wages (NDNH)
•   Employer payroll costs (Bureau of Labor
    Statistics)
Payroll costs include both wages paid directly
to employees and non-wage employer
expenses. Non-wage employer expenses are
not reported to NDNH.
Source: GAO. | GAO-23-105331




                                                 77Payroll costs include paid wages and additional employer costs related to employee
                                                 compensation such as paid leave, health care premiums, retirement plan maintenance
                                                 fees, and state and local taxes assessed on employee compensation.




                                                 Page 59                                                     GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
The maximum allowable PPP loan was generally 2.5 times the recipient’s
average monthly payroll costs. 78 Recipients could also apply for additional
funds to pay down COVID-19 EIDL loans (but not advances). We
estimated the maximum eligible loan amount for recipients matched to
NDNH wage data using payroll costs based on paid wages recorded in
NDNH and on PPP application loan request formulas. For PPP recipients
who had also received COVID-19 EIDL loans, we added the total amount
of COVID-19 EIDL loan funds disbursed as of December 31, 2021,
(excluding advance funds) to the maximum loan amount estimate. We
compared our estimated maximum eligible PPP loan amount to the total
approved PPP loan amount. We identified those recipients with greater-
than-expected approved loan amounts as potentially overstating payroll
costs on their applications. See sidebar, as well as appendix I, for further
details on how we performed our analysis.

Of the 3.1 million unique PPP recipients with matched NDNH wage data,
we identified over 446,500 unique recipients who were approved for total
loan amounts larger than expected based on our wage-based payroll cost
estimates. Within these 446,500, we further identified:

•    Over 121,000 unique recipients who were approved for loans at least
     twice as large as expected, including 27,000 who each received
     approval for loans of $100,000 or greater.
•    Almost 36,000 unique recipients who were approved for loans more
     than five times as large as expected, including over 1,200 unique
     recipients who each received approval for loans of $2 million or
     greater.
(See text box for illustrative example.)




78First draw PPP loans were capped at 2.5 times monthly payroll, plus the amount of
outstanding EIDL funds (excluding advances) for recipients seeking to refinance COVID-
19 EIDL loans. Second draw loans were capped at 2.5 times monthly payroll costs for
most recipients. However, for businesses with specific business identification codes
related to “accommodation and food services,” the cap for second draw loans was
3.5 times monthly payroll, up to a maximum of $2 million. We accounted for these different
caps in our analysis.




Page 60                                                      GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
     Individual inflated payroll costs to support larger loans.
     One recipient identified in our analysis of loan data has already been convicted of fraud
     related to these loans. This individual received approximately $2.9 million in total
     Paycheck Protection Program funds, but wage data supports total eligible funding of
     less than $92,000. Our analysis showed this individual received four separate loans,
     but only one business was matched to wage data, and the highest paid monthly wage
     amount for that business was $26,077. According to Department of Justice (DOJ) case
     information, this individual applied for multiple loans and claimed average employee
     wages of over $1.5 million per month. This individual pled guilty to multiple fraud
     counts, including major fraud against the United States and bank fraud.
Source: GAO analysis of DOJ information, court documents, and Small Business Administration and National Directory of New Hires
data. | GAO-23-105331



SBA officials again raised concerns that the methods and buffers we used
for our analyses did not sufficiently account for variations in payroll costs,
particularly variations that may have occurred during the pandemic, and
as a result fraud indicators may be associated with recipients who did not
overstate payroll costs on their PPP applications. They specifically noted
that our analysis may have associated recipients with above-average
non-wage employer expenses—costly employee insurance or retirement
benefits packages, for example—with fraud indicators. While recognizing
that the results of our analyses may include non-fraudulent recipients, the
methods and buffers used, as well as the results, reflect SBA’s exposure
to the risk that otherwise eligible recipients may have inflated payroll
costs to obtain more funds than they were entitled to.

SBA officials also explained that the complexity of the maximum loan
amount calculations may have led to good-faith errors on the part of both
recipients and lenders. 79 They added that, in addition to the complexity of
the loan request calculation, there was much confusion in 2020 about
how to account for refinancing a COVID-19 EIDL loan as part of the PPP
loan amount. Specifically, recipients may have incorrectly included
COVID-19 EIDL advance amounts or the amounts of COVID-19 EIDL
loans that had been requested but not yet approved at the time of the
PPP loan application. We acknowledge the possibility of good-faith errors
on the part of recipients or lenders due to confusion related to the
application forms and their associated instructions. These conditions do




 In January 2021, SBA issued a Procedural Notice that explained that PPP recipients will
79

not receive forgiveness for good-faith excess loan amount errors.




Page 61                                                                                  GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                               not negate the risk that this confusion may have provided opportunities
                               for individuals seeking to defraud the program to do so.

                               SBA officials also noted that the Economic Aid to Hard-Hit Small
                               Businesses, Nonprofits, and Venues Act (Economic Aid Act) allowed
                               certain recipients to base loan amount calculations on gross income
                               rather than payroll. 80 We acknowledge it is possible that loan applications
                               received after enactment of the Economic Aid Act in December 2020 may
                               have used this alternative calculation. We recognize that the results of our
                               analyses may include non-fraudulent recipients. However, these results
                               also reflect SBA’s exposure to the risk that otherwise eligible recipients
                               may have inflated payroll costs to obtain more funds than they were
                               entitled to.

                               Additionally, SBA officials observed the possibility that some of the unique
                               recipients flagged in our payroll analysis may have been businesses that
                               underreported information to state workforce agencies, which are a
                               source of NDNH wage data. We acknowledge that it is possible that some
                               PPP recipients may have done so. This possibility does not negate the
                               risk that the individuals may also have misrepresented information on
                               their PPP applications.

Almost 22,000 Unique           PPP and COVID-19 EIDL recipients were generally limited to a single
Recipients May Have Received   approved and funded application per business entity per program.
Multiple Unique Loans or       However, according to our analysis, almost 22,000 unique recipients
Advances                       received multiple unique loans or advances, potentially in violation of this
                               limitation. Each program had certain provisions by which additional funds
                               might be distributed, such as a second draw PPP loan. 81 Our analysis
                               does not include those recipients whom the data indicate were funded
                               more than once within the rules of the programs.




                                Title III of Pub. L. No. 116-260, § 307; 134 Stat 1998 (2020).
                               80


                               81A “unique loan or advance” refers to a funded first draw PPP loan, associated loan
                               increases, and an optional second draw loan; or to any loan or advance funds disbursed
                               based on a single approved COVID-19 EIDL application. PPP recipients who received
                               both first and second draw PPP loans, and COVID-19 EIDL recipients who received
                               increases and advances associated with only one application, are not included in the
                               unique recipients with fraud indicators described here. The recipients we discuss in this
                               section received separate unique first draw PPP loans or separate unique COVID-19 EIDL
                               loans or advances, as both programs limited individual businesses to one unique funding
                               opportunity per program.




                               Page 62                                                           GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Identifying Unique Recipients from Unique          For the purposes of these programs, a business entity is defined by its tax
Loans and Advances                                 filing. If a business with three locations submits one tax return under a
There were a total of 18.3 million unique loans    single EIN, that business should have submitted a single PPP or COVID-
or advances distributed through the Paycheck
Protection Program (PPP) and the COVID-19
                                                   19 EIDL application representing the three locations. Businesses can
Economic Injury Disaster Loan program              have different EINs for different segments of the business, including
(COVID-19 EIDL). However, we describe the          locations. If a business submits individual tax returns under unique EINs
results of our analyses in terms of the
13.4 million unique recipients, not unique         for each of the three locations, the locations would be treated as
loans or advances.                                 individual businesses. Therefore, each of the three locations could submit
Our initial review of PPP loan-level data          corresponding PPP or COVID-19 EIDL applications as an individual
showed that applicants frequently used
business information (employer identification      business entity within the rules of the programs.
number and business name) for the first draw
application and personal information (Social
Security number and owner name) for the
                                                   Our analysis of the loan- and advance-level data identified almost
second draw application, or vice versa.            22,000 unique recipients who submitted multiple separate applications
To avoid double-counting these recipients,         that were approved and funded, though both programs generally limited
and to identify other individuals that received
more than one unique loan or advance, we
                                                   individual businesses to a single application. This indicates that these
used combinations of key identifying               recipients may have misrepresented business information on their
information to determine if multiple loan or       applications to obtain additional funds they were not eligible for. See
advance records belonged to the same
unique recipient.                                  sidebar, as well as appendix I, for further details on how we performed
For example, if the same tax identification        our analysis.
number (tax ID), business name, and address
were associated with more than one record,
all records were associated with a single          Specifically:
unique recipient. This could be a recipient of
multiple loans within one program, or a            •   PPP. We identified almost 2,500 unique recipients who received at
recipient who received one PPP loan and one
COVID-19 EIDL loan or advance.                         least two unique PPP loans, contrary to program limits of one loan for
We also considered all records with the same           each unique business. Of these recipients, over 1,500 had received
business name and address but a different              loan forgiveness totaling approximately $109 million as of December
tax ID as a single unique recipient. In some
cases, the different tax ID may be a data entry
                                                       31, 2021.
error. However, it is also an indicator of fraud
by an individual potentially altering a single     •   COVID-19 EIDL. We identified about 19,500 unique recipients who
identification field to avoid detection.               received at least two unique COVID-19 EIDL loans or advances. Of
Source: GAO. | GAO-23-105331                           these recipients, almost 16,600 received approximately $95 million in
                                                       advances that are not required to be repaid.
                                                   In addition, we identified 13 unique recipients who received multiple
                                                   unique PPP loans and multiple unique COVID-19 EIDL loans or
                                                   advances.

                                                   For example, we identified one recipient approved for one unique first
                                                   draw PPP loan in June 2020 and another first draw PPP loan in April
                                                   2021. This recipient also received COVID-19 EIDL loan and advance
                                                   funds from two separate applications accepted on different dates in June
                                                   2020. This recipient received over $967,000 from both programs.




                                                   Page 63                                            GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Almost 894,400 Unique         We identified almost 894,400 unique recipients who were approved for
Recipients May Have Applied   and received funding—once or multiple times—based on applications
for Funds Using the Same      with the same business information as other unique recipients of funds
Identifying Information as    from the same program (either PPP or COVID-19 EIDL). This identical
Other Recipients              business information includes information such as tax IDs, business
                              names, and addresses.

                              Of the almost 894,400 unique recipients who appear to have received
                              funds in violation of program limits on the number of loans or advances
                              per business entity per program, the majority were approved once using
                              the same information as another unique approved and funded recipient.
                              We also identified almost 2,100 unique recipients who were approved
                              multiple times, either as the same business or appearing to be different
                              businesses.

                              This analysis of recipients who may have used the same information is in
                              contrast to our previously discussed analysis, in which we considered
                              only those recipients that we identified as unique entities or individuals
                              who received funds as a result of more than one application. Where
                              possible, we attempted to minimize the inclusion of non-fraudulent
                              recipients by using thresholds. For example, we applied the fraud
                              indicator related to duplicate internet protocol (IP) addresses only when
                              data showed the same IP address was used ten or more times to apply
                              for COVID-19 EIDL funds. 82 See appendix I for additional information on
                              these thresholds and how we did our analysis.

                              In some cases, recipients with the same business information may have
                              been independent contractors that provided parent company information.
                              This suggests the possibility of error, as opposed to potentially fraudulent
                              activity. For example, we identified over 1,600 unique recipients who
                              provided the name and address combinations of rideshare agency
                              locations. These recipients received combined program funds totaling
                              over $26 million. Both PPP and COVID-19 EIDL applications required the
                              legal business name and business address of the recipient, which should



                              82Some of the business information we considered may be expected to match more than

                              one unique business. For example, more than one non-fraudulent loan recipient may have
                              business addresses in the same office building. To account for these situations, we set a
                              threshold above which there is a higher chance that the duplication is an indication of
                              fraud. Where we set a threshold, we indicated that threshold in our results. For example,
                              we did not consider matching addresses to be a fraud indicator until the same address
                              was provided for five or more unique recipients.




                              Page 64                                                      GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
be the individual’s home or contracting business address, not the address
of the company for which the individual is a contractor.

According to SBA officials, one of the challenges for independent
contractors was that the forms were not always specific as to which
address to use. While the application forms and their instructions may
have created confusion for legitimate applicants and resulted in errors,
they may have also provided opportunities for those seeking to defraud
the programs. For example, our analysis identified 35 unique COVID-19
EIDL applications that provided the address of a two-bedroom apartment
as the business address and a rideshare agency as the business name.

SBA officials raised concerns that the methods and thresholds we used
for our analyses were not sufficient to account for variations in business
type or organizational strategy. Specifically, SBA stated that the methods
and thresholds used may overstate the extent to which recipients may
have inappropriately applied for funds using the same identifying
information as other recipients. They noted that a business owner could
maintain more than one distinct business entity with unique tax IDs but
share legal names and address, as well as number of employees. We
recognize that the results of our analyses may include non-fraudulent
recipients, and we have incorporated thresholds or buffers into these
analyses to account for scenarios in which shared information may be
expected. However, our results reflect SBA’s exposure to the risk that
recipients may have inappropriately used another recipient’s information
to obtain funds. Our analysis of the 330 PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud
cases charged by DOJ showed that 19 percent involved allegations of
theft of personally identifiable information and 5 percent involved
allegations of using another business’s information to obtain PPP or
COVID-19 EIDL funds.

The SBA OIG has also reported on the risk of identity theft by applicants
seeking pandemic relief funds. 83 Specifically, the SBA OIG reported that
as of January 31, 2021, SBA had referred 846,611 COVID-19 EIDL
applications to the OIG. This total includes the loan applications that
originated identity theft complaints (once individuals indicated that they
did not apply for a loan and believed they were a victim of identity theft)
and any related applications (applications with the same email address,
phone number, or physical address). For the 846,611 applications, SBA


83SBA OIG, SBA’s Handling of Identity Theft in the COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster

Loan Program, 21-15, (Washington, D.C.: May 2021).




Page 65                                                     GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
disbursed $6.7 billion in COVID-19 EIDL funds. The SBA OIG further
found that the bank account numbers for 29,435 of the 112,196 disbursed
loans, totaling $1.7 billion, were changed from the original number
submitted on the application to another number used for disbursement,
which is an additional indicator of potential fraud.

PPP

We identified almost 524,600 unique PPP recipients who received funds
using the same business information as at least one other unique
recipient. These recipients received almost $51.1 billion in total funds,
approximately $39.6 billion of which had been forgiven as of December
31, 2021.

Specifically, we identified

•      31,400 unique recipients who provided the same business name and
       address as at least one other recipient but different tax IDs;
•      231,900 unique recipients who provided the same business address
       and business identifying information—such as business type and
       employee count—as at least one other recipient but different business
       names and tax IDs; and
•      323,700 unique recipients who provided a business address
       associated with at least five unique recipients. Recipients in the same
       office building will have similar addresses. However, multiple
       applications with the same address could also indicate potentially
       ineligible applicants re-using information. (See text box for illustrative
       example.)

    Individuals successfully submitted multiple applications using the same business address.
    Our analysis identified one recipient who received over $453,000 from three separate
    Paycheck Protection Program loan applications that used the same street address.
    Further review of Department of Justice (DOJ) case data found that the recipient was
    named as a defendant in a case along with co-conspirators who submitted a total of
    22 applications for 12 different businesses. Ten of the businesses shared the same
    address but were described with different business names, owners, and business
    descriptions. Although 17 of the applications were denied by lenders, DOJ case
    information indicates that these recipients received a total of more than $995,000 from
    five funded applications. One of the individuals involved pled guilty to bank fraud and
    another pled guilty to bank fraud and identity theft. A third individual was found guilty of
    multiple charges, including bank fraud conspiracy and identity theft.

Source: GAO analysis of Small Business Administration data, DOJ information, and court documents. | GAO-23-105331




Page 66                                                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                COVID-19 EIDL

                                We identified over 408,800 unique COVID-19 EIDL recipients who
                                received funds using the same business information as at least one other
                                unique recipient. These recipients received almost $16.4 billion in total
                                funds, including approximately $1.2 billion in advances.

                                Specifically, we identified

                                •   18,700 unique recipients who provided the same business name and
                                    address as at least one other recipient but different tax IDs;
                                •   175,600 unique recipients who provided the same business address,
                                    business type, and employee count as at least one other recipient but
                                    different business names and tax IDs;
                                •   201,300 unique recipients who provided a business address
                                    associated with at least five unique recipients;
                                •   37,100 unique recipients with an IP address—automatically collected
                                    by SBA—associated with at least 10 unique recipients;
                                •   28,200 unique recipients who provided the same bank account
                                    information as at least one other recipient; and
                                •   1,200 unique recipients who provided the same owner tax ID as at
                                    least one other recipient but different owner names.
                                For example, the same owner tax ID was provided in loan- and advance-
                                level data for 103 unique COVID-19 EIDL recipients, though different
                                owner names were provided. These 103 recipients received $3.4 million
                                in total COVID-19 EIDL funds. Even though submitting different business
                                information, such as different owner names, may not be fraudulent by
                                itself, it is an indicator that fraud may have occurred.

                                Our analyses identified almost 39,000 unique recipients with fraud
                                indicators in both PPP and COVID-19 EIDL loan- and advance-level data
                                related to using the same business information as other recipients of
                                funds from the same program.

Almost 383,000 Unique           We found that almost 383,000 of the 2.1 million unique recipients who
Recipients May Have Provided    received both PPP and COVID-19 EIDL funds used different business
Different Information to Each   information when they applied to each program. For example, one
Program                         corporate recipient self-reported as having over 100 employees on its
                                COVID-19 EIDL application in March 2020. However, on its April 2020




                                Page 67                                           GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                       PPP application, that same recipient reported fewer than five employees
                                       and identified as a nonprofit organization (see fig. 12).

Figure 12: Example of Information Mismatch between Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury
Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Data




                                       There are potentially non-fraudulent reasons for each application having
                                       different information. This could include two different people who have
                                       different levels of familiarity with the business submitting each application.
                                       It could also include variations over time. For example, a recipient may
                                       have applied for a PPP loan as a corporation in April 2020 and then
                                       applied for a loan under COVID-19 EIDL in December 2021 as a nonprofit
                                       organization, having legitimately restructured its business during that
                                       time.

                                       However, conflicting descriptions for businesses providing the same
                                       identification information can indicate that applications may have been
                                       falsified. It can also be an indicator that the identifying information from a
                                       legitimate business in one program was used to submit an application
                                       with false information to the other.

Certain Lenders                        PPP loans were made to recipients through a network of participating
Originated Higher Rates of             lenders. Certain lenders originated a disproportionate share of fraudulent
                                       and potentially fraudulent loans compared to the share of all PPP loans
Fraudulent and Potentially
                                       issued by those lenders, according to our analysis of PPP fraud cases
Fraudulent PPP Loans                   charged by DOJ as of December 31, 2021, and PPP loan-level data. We



                                       Page 68                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                                              identified 1,191 PPP loans associated with the 260 closed and ongoing
                                                              PPP fraud cases and found the origination of those loans to be
                                                              concentrated among 245 lenders. 84

                                                              Most PPP lenders did not have a loan associated with a DOJ fraud case,
                                                              as of December 31, 2021. Of the roughly 5,500 lenders that participated
                                                              in PPP, 95.5 percent of lenders did not have a loan associated with a
                                                              fraud case. In addition, of the 245 lenders we identified with a loan in a
                                                              fraud case, 80 percent of those lenders had issued three or fewer loans
                                                              associated with a DOJ case.

                                                              Our analysis identified a small number of lenders that issued a
                                                              disproportionate share of loans with a DOJ fraud case. We found that
                                                              five lenders (including both bank and nonbank lenders) issued about
                                                              34 percent of all loans associated with at least one fraud case identified
                                                              as of December 31, 2021 (see table 4). In contrast, these five lenders had
                                                              issued about 14 percent of all PPP loans.

Table 4: Top Five Lenders by Number of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Loans Associated with a Department of Justice
(DOJ) Fraud Case, as of December 31, 2021

                                                                                                                                    Number of            Loans by
                                                               Chartering or                    Number of        Percent of         PPP loans          lender as a
                                   Lender                      licensing                     loans in fraud   loans in fraud         issued by       percent of all
 Lender                            categorya                   authorityb                            cases            cases             lender          PPP loans
 Lender A                          Bankc                       State                                   122               10.2           182,825                   1.5
 Lender B                          Bankc                       State                                    92                7.7           518,912                   4.2
 Lender C                          Bank                        Federal                                  89                7.4           507,174                   4.1
 Lender D                          Bank                        State                                    54                4.5           327,951                   2.6
 Lender E                          Nonbankc                    State                                    45                3.8           258,545                   2.1
 Total                                                                                                 402            33.6%         1.8 million               14.4%
Source: GAO analysis of DOJ information and Small Business Administration data. I GAO-23-105331
                                                              a
                                                               While banks are depository institutions, nonbanks generally provide lending services but do not
                                                              accept deposits.
                                                              b
                                                               An institution’s primary supervisor depends on whether its charter or license was issued by a federal
                                                              or state entity. Supervisors conduct on-site examinations to assess banks’ condition and monitor
                                                              compliance with banking laws. For institutions with state primary supervisors, examinations may
                                                              alternate between state and federal supervisors. However, both state- and federally-chartered banks
                                                              must apply to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) for deposit insurance, which
                                                              provides FDIC with backup examination and regulatory authority over all insured banks.
                                                              c
                                                                We identified these institutions as fintech lenders, which are defined as technology-based firms that
                                                              operate online and may use nontraditional data to make loan decisions.


                                                               Associated cases include 84 closed PPP and 42 closed PPP and EIDL cases as well as
                                                              84

                                                              85 ongoing PPP and 48 ongoing PPP and EIDL cases.




                                                              Page 69                                                                GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Four of the top five lenders with loans identified in fraud cases were
primarily state-supervised institutions. Specifically, one is a state-licensed
nonbank lender and three are state-chartered banks. In processing PPP
loan applications, lenders were required to comply with BSA
requirements, as discussed below. The adequacy of an institution’s BSA
compliance program, which includes requirements for financial institutions
to verify the identity of all new customers and monitor and report
suspicious activity, among other things, is assessed during the
institution’s safety and soundness exam. While all federally-insured banks
are subject to safety and soundness examinations by their federal
regulator every 12 to 18 months, state-chartered banks are examined on
an alternating schedule between the appropriate federal and state
regulator and, accordingly, may face less frequent federal examinations. 85
However, nonbank lenders may not have federal supervisors to examine
their BSA compliance programs, depending on the nonbank lender’s prior
lending activities and existing relationships with banks.

We found that lenders with the top five highest rates of loans associated
with PPP fraud cases tended to use financial technology to automate
PPP loan origination (fintech). Specifically, three of the top five lenders
with loans identified in fraud cases are bank or nonbank institutions that
used fintech to automate their loan origination processes. One of the
fintech lenders identified among our top five stated that over 75 percent of
the PPP applications it approved were processed without human
intervention or manual review. 86 Prior studies found that fintech lenders
were disproportionately represented as lenders of potentially fraudulent
PPP loans. For example, based on analysis of fraud indicators, a 2022




 While state-chartered, federally-insured banks are required to undergo safety and
85

soundness exams every 12 to 18 months, such institutions may be examined in alternate
12-month periods if the appropriate federal banking agency determines that an
examination of the insured depository institution conducted by the state banking authority
during the intervening 12-month period carries out the purpose of the regulation.
12 U.S.C. § 1820.
86Fintech lenders are defined as technology-based firms that operate online and may use

nontraditional data to make loan decisions. For this analysis, we categorized fintech
lenders as any nonbank lender that participated in the program as well as any online
direct bank, which generally only have one physical branch location. See Isil Erel and Jack
Liebersohn, Does FinTech Substitute for Banks? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection
Program (Cambridge, MA: December 2020).




Page 70                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
study found that fintechs were more likely to issue potentially fraudulent
loans than non-fintech lenders. 87

SBA has taken action against certain fintech lenders and companies
based on evidence of inadequate controls to prevent fraudulent
applicants from obtaining PPP loans. On December 7, 2022, SBA
announced the suspension of two fintech companies that partnered with
lenders to facilitate PPP loan approvals from working with SBA. Further,
SBA announced its investigation of eight fintech and fintech-partnered
PPP lenders related to deficiencies in these entities’ fraud identification
and prevention capabilities.

Our analysis of the characteristics of PPP loans identified in DOJ cases
compared to all PPP loans found that new lenders issued a slightly higher
percentage of loans associated with a fraud case than existing SBA
lenders based on their share of the total loan amount disbursed.
According to SBA, Treasury and SBA jointly reviewed and approved
848 new lenders to participate in PPP, in addition to the 4,837 lenders
already authorized to participate in SBA’s programs. However, consistent
with CARES Act requirements, all lenders were allowed to rely on
applicants’ documents and self-certifications, and SBA committed to hold
lenders harmless for applicants’ failure to comply with program rules.
Such reduced underwriting requirements limited lenders’ role in mitigating
fraud risks.

Moreover, all PPP lenders had to demonstrate the ability to comply with
applicable BSA requirements. The BSA generally requires financial
institutions to implement an anti-money laundering program to help
prevent and detect money laundering and terrorist financing. For certain
types of federally insured depository institutions such as banks this
includes, among other things, requirements for implementing appropriate
risk-based procedures for conducting ongoing customer due diligence,
which requires obtaining and verifying customer identities and
understanding the potential risks associated with customers. 88

Federally insured depository institutions undergo examinations by federal
and state financial supervisors, which, among other things, assess

 John Griffin, Samuel Kruger, and Prateek Mahajan, Did FinTech Lenders Facilitate PPP
87

Fraud? (Aug. 18, 2022).

 See 31 C.F.R. § 1020.210(a)(2)(v).
88




Page 71                                                    GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
federally insured depository institutions’ ability to meet applicable BSA
requirements as part of the safety and soundness examination. 89 In prior
work, we reported that banks in our analysis said costs associated with
meeting customer due diligence requirements were greater than those of
any other BSA/AML requirements. 90 Treasury officials told us that they
conducted phone interviews to determine the presence of BSA/AML
compliance programs for certain prospective PPP lenders.

Although PPP rules allowed lenders to rely on borrower self-certifications,
SBA required all PPP lenders to comply with federal BSA requirements.
In January 2023, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(Federal Reserve) assessed a $2.3 million penalty against a PPP lender
for approving six PPP loans despite detecting significant indicators of
potential fraud. The Federal Reserve found that the lender’s failure to
promptly report the potential fraud resulted in violations of the lenders’
internal BSA protocols.

According to officials from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
(FDIC), examinations conducted through December 2021 had not
identified widespread BSA deficiencies among institutions under their
supervision related to PPP lending across lender types. The officials
identified eight instances of deficiencies among three institutions involving
compliance requirements related to customer due diligence for PPP loans
between March 2020 and December 2021.

According to our statistical analysis of key factors associated with DOJ
cases compared to PPP loans overall, loans issued by nonbank lenders
were associated with a higher likelihood of being identified in a fraud case
relative to bank lenders, holding all other factors constant. In addition,
loans issued by lenders (bank and nonbank) with smaller asset sizes
($1 billion to less than $10 billion) were associated with a higher likelihood
of being identified in a fraud case, relative to lenders with larger asset
sizes ($10 billion or greater), holding all other factors constant.



 As noted above, FinCEN has delegated its authority to examine financial institutions for
89

compliance with the Bank Secrecy Act to the federal banking agencies. 31 C.F.R.
§ 1010.810(b).

 GAO, Anti-Money Laundering: Opportunities Exist to Increase Law Enforcement Use of
90

Bank Secrecy Act Reports, and Banks’ Costs to Comply with the Act Varied, GAO-20-574
(Washington, D.C.: Sept. 22, 2020).




Page 72                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
The same analysis also examined borrower characteristics and select
indicators of fraud. This analysis indicates that loans for businesses
based in urban localities or self-employed businesses are more likely to
be identified in a fraud case, relative to business loans from rural localities
or employer business, holding all other factors constant. Similarly,
controlling for other factors, we found that loans flagged as having
overstated payroll or flagged as a non-existent business were more likely
to be identified in a fraud case, relative to loans that were not flagged. 91

PPP rules also required lenders to monitor and report suspected
instances of fraud even after loans were issued. Based on our analysis of
data provided by Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network
(FinCEN), institutions filed at least 174,000 suspicious activity reports
(SAR) to FinCEN in cases of suspected fraud related to PPP, as of
December 31, 2021 (see fig. 13). 92 Of those filed, nearly 90 percent of
SARs related to PPP were filed by depository institutions, such as banks
and credit unions, according to our analysis of the same FinCEN data. 93
SARs can assist law enforcement agencies in their efforts to initiate or
supplement investigations involving money laundering and other crimes.




 For more information, see appendix IV.
91



 FINCEN identified SARs using defined search terms.
92



 Due to data limitations, it is unknown whether the depository institution that reported a
93

given SAR was also the originator of the PPP loan being reported.




Page 73                                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Figure 13: Number of Suspicious Activity Reports Filed on Paycheck Protection Program Loans, by Month




                                        In addition to fraudulent borrower activity, law enforcement and regulators
                                        have identified potentially fraudulent activity conducted directly by
                                        lenders. For example, DOJ charged one lender for its fraudulent lender
                                        activity. The business allegedly claimed to have prior lending experience
                                        and was approved as a PPP lender. This company issued $832 million in
                                        PPP loans, earning approximately $71 million in lender fees. As of
                                        December 31, 2021, DOJ charged 10 cases involving 12 potentially
                                        fraudulent PPP loans issued by this lender, which represents
                                        0.03 percent of all PPP loans issued by this lender. In addition, FDIC has
                                        removed one individual from banking for PPP loan fraud as of June
                                        2022. 94 FDIC officials told us they are investigating additional cases of
                                        suspected fraud by institution-affiliated parties.




                                        94Other federal supervisors have taken similar actions. For example, the Federal Reserve
                                        Board prohibited a bank employee from future employment in the banking industry for
                                        fraudulently obtaining PPP and COVID-19 EIDL loans. See Board of Governors of the
                                        Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Board announces it has prohibited five former
                                        bank employees from future employment in the banking industry for fraudulently obtaining
                                        loans and grants administered under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security
                                        (CARES) Act (Washington, D.C.: Oct. 13, 2022). Accessed Jan. 5, 2023, at
                                        https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/enforcement20221013a.htm.




                                        Page 74                                                     GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                         Data analytics can help detect potentially fraudulent activity and, if used
Enhanced Data            before the distribution of funds, can help prevent fraud. These types of
Analytics Can Help       analytics can also inform risk assessment efforts. A robust data analytics
                         program consists of many elements, including internally available data
SBA Identify             and data from external sources. As discussed in the Fraud Risk
Potentially Fraudulent   Framework, a leading practice in data analytics is to conduct data mining
                         and matching, such as cross-checking of data and using external data
Recipients               sources to validate information, to identify suspicious activities.

                         SBA has used data analytics to facilitate fraud detection within its
                         pandemic relief programs. As previously discussed, SBA incorporated the
                         use of data analytics into its oversight plans for PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
                         to identify potentially fraudulent loans and advances. Based on those
                         analytic efforts along with manual reviews, SBA made over
                         669,000 referrals for criminal investigation. Additionally:

                         •    In response to our June 2020 recommendation, SBA’s loan review
                              contractors conducted automated screenings for all PPP loans made
                              before September 2020. 95 Starting in January 2021, SBA’s
                              contractors began using a rules-based tool to screen all PPP loan
                              applications with potential indicators of ineligibility or fraud risk. After
                              manually reviewing these flagged loans, SBA determined that some
                              borrowers were ineligible for the related loan amounts or used the
                              loan proceeds for unauthorized uses. These reviews resulted in PPP
                              loan proceeds with a net present value of about $4.7 billion not being
                              forgiven.
                         •    In response to our January 2021 recommendation, SBA developed
                              and implemented portfolio-level data analytics across COVID-19 EIDL
                              as a means to detect potentially ineligible and fraudulent
                              applications. 96
                         •    In response to our July 2022 recommendation pertaining to the
                              Restaurant Revitalization Fund (RRF), SBA officials told us in January
                              2023 that SBA is taking steps to execute data analytics across the


                          GAO-20-625. Additional information on SBA’s PPP loan review process can be found in
                         95

                         GAO, Paycheck Protection Program: SBA Added Program Safeguards, but Additional
                         Actions Are Needed, GAO-21-577 (Washington, D.C.: July 29, 2021).
                         96GAO-21-265. Additional information on SBA’s review process for COVID-19 EIDL can be
                         found in GAO, Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program: Additional Actions Needed to
                         Improve Communication with Applicants and Address Fraud Risks, GAO-21-589
                         (Washington, D.C.: July 30, 2021).




                         Page 75                                                   GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
      portfolio, with plans to incorporate the results into post-award review
      procedures. 97
Across its pandemic relief programs, however, SBA did not fully leverage
information to help prevent fraud and identify applicants who tried to
defraud more than one program. In the case of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL,
SBA officials told us that they did not cross-check applicants’ information
between the two programs because they lacked a mechanism for doing
so. They also noted they did not cross-check PPP recipients with COVID-
19 EIDL recipients because an applicant may qualify for one program and
not another because of eligibility differences. Nevertheless, a denial in
one program may be related to suspected fraud, and cross-checking
program data can help identify questionable applications.

Further, we found in July 2022, that SBA was cross-checking certain
information for RRF recipients, but the agency was not cross-checking
other information to prevent and detect potential fraud in the program. 98
Specifically, SBA used PPP data, as well as data from its Shuttered
Venue Operators Grant program, to screen RRF applicants, but it was not
cross-checking data on RRF recipients against information on suspicious
borrowers from the PPP program provided by DOJ and the SBA OIG. As
of January 2023, SBA had begun reviewing a sample of all RRF awards
to confirm eligibility and use of funds compliance. We continue to review
information provided to us by SBA that focuses on the use of enforcement
data on suspected fraud in other SBA programs.

Regarding the use of external data sources, over the course of its
COVID-19 response, SBA enhanced its use of these data to facilitate
efforts to validate applicant information and detect potential fraud. For
example:

•     For COVID-19 EIDL, SBA began validating bank routing numbers for
      COVID-19 EIDL applicants in May 2020. In August 2020, it began to
      revalidate bank account information whenever the loan applicant
      changed this information.
•     For PPP Round 2, which began in January 2021, SBA implemented
      controls using public records to validate information such as whether

97GAO, Restaurant Revitalization Fund: Opportunities Exist to Improve Oversight,

GAO-22-105442 (Washington, D.C.: July 14, 2022).
98  GAO-22-105442.




Page 76                                                      GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
      the business was in operation as of February 15, 2020, consistent
      with program eligibility requirements.
•     For all of its pandemic relief programs, in April 2021, SBA
      implemented pre-award procedures to screen applicants against
      Treasury’s Do Not Pay service. 99
SBA experienced initial restrictions and delays in being able to validate
some applicant information using IRS data. SBA officials told us the
CARES Act’s restriction on obtaining applicants’ tax returns from the IRS
presented a challenge for validating COVID-19 EIDL applications. The
Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021, enacted on December 27, 2020,
removed this restriction. SBA officials told us that beginning in April 2021,
the agency started incorporating tax information as part of its validation
process for loan applications to confirm that businesses existed on or
before January 31, 2020, and to verify business revenue. However, the
SBA OIG found that between when Congress removed the restriction and
when SBA began using tax information, SBA disbursed more than
$92 million in COVID-19 EIDL funds disbursements to businesses with
suspect tax ID numbers. 100 The lapse of about 4 months was attributable,
in part, to the time needed to negotiate an agreement with the IRS so that
SBA could request and receive tax data.

SBA has access to various government and private sector databases,
such as Treasury’s Do Not Pay service and Lexis-Nexis, to help prevent
and detect fraud. While SBA said it has access to some external
databases, it does not have access to some other external data sources
that could benefit its efforts to detect and prevent fraud. Specifically, SBA
does not have statutory access to the quarterly NDNH data we used in
our fraud indicator analysis. If SBA had access, these data could have
served as an alternate means of validating applicant information when it
was restricted from using IRS data or while it was negotiating for the use
of IRS data. Further, such access could allow SBA to conduct indicator




99SBA OIG, COVID-19 EIDL Program Recipients on the Department of Treasury’s Do Not

Pay List, 22-06 (Washington, D.C.: Nov. 30, 2021). Treasury’s Do Not Pay service is an
analytics tool that helps federal agencies detect and prevent improper payments made to
vendors, grantees, loan recipients, and beneficiaries. Agencies can use the service to
check multiple data sources to make payment eligibility decisions.
  SBA OIG, Follow-up Inspection of SBA’s Internal Controls to Prevent COVID-19 EIDLs
100

to Ineligible Applicants, 22-22 (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 29, 2022).




Page 77                                                     GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
analyses not only with emergency relief programs but also with the range
of programs it administers.

Other data sources could also be beneficial for SBA’s purposes. For
example, in January 2023, the PRAC noted the benefit of a consent-
based verification process to authenticate basic applicant information—
such as name, date of birth, and Social Security number—to ensure
applicant eligibility and to prevent program and identity fraud. 101 The
PRAC urged SBA to work with the Social Security Administration to
explore information-sharing agreement(s) that will allow for verifications
across all SBA-funded grant, loan, and benefit programs that are
vulnerable to identity fraud. SBA informed us that it has communicated
with the Social Security Administration on this matter, but as of April
2023, the legal authority to share information with SBA has not been
established.

SBA has recognized that it would benefit from further developing its data
analytics program. According to planning documents for SBA’s Fraud
Risk Management Board, this analytics program is to be in place by the
end of fiscal year 2023. As the Board develops and implements
enhancements, it has the opportunity to build upon the agency’s
experiences with data analytics for the pandemic relief programs to
facilitate analytics within and across its various programs going forward.
This effort could include ensuring that mechanisms are in place and are
used to facilitate cross-checking of information across programs. Doing
so would be consistent with the Fraud Risk Framework’s leading practice
for agencies to combine data across programs and from separate
databases. It would help managers identify potential instances of fraud
that may not be evident when analyzing data from separate programs or
within separate databases.

Further developing its data analytics program could also include ensuring
that SBA continues to identify the range of external data sources that

  In January 2023, the PRAC issued an alert in which it identified over 69,000
101

questionable Social Security numbers that were used to obtain $5.4 billion from PPP and
COVID-19 EIDL. PRAC data scientists used publicly available information from the Social
Security Administration to identify a target selection of Social Security numbers that may
have been invalid or not assigned prior to 2011. Then using legal authorities included in
the CARES Act, PRAC requested that SSA provide it with verification information for these
SSNs. PRAC, FRAUD ALERT: PRAC Identifies $5.4 Billion in Potentially Fraudulent
Pandemic Loans Obtained Using Over 69,000 Questionable Social Security Numbers
(Jan. 30, 2023).




Page 78                                                      GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
              would aid it in preventing and detecting potential fraud. This includes
              sources that could be used if other sources cannot be accessed or
              accessed in a timely manner. As noted in the Fraud Risk Framework,
              using data from other federal agencies or third-party sources is a leading
              practice that can help managers identify potential instances of fraud.
              However, as we have previously reported and as SBA experienced with
              the pandemic relief programs, there are statutory and other obstacles that
              make it difficult to share available data. 102 As a result, once SBA has
              identified additional external data sources, it may need to pursue statutory
              authority or enter into data-sharing agreements to gain timely access to
              those sources.

              Until such an enhanced analytics program is in place that fully leverages
              data across SBA programs and accesses external data to the fullest
              extent possible, SBA will miss opportunities to effectively use data to
              achieve the objective of mitigating the likelihood and impact of fraud.

              Our analyses emphasize the importance of preventing and readily
Conclusions   detecting fraud, particularly when the scale of potential fraud is significant.
              Our analysis of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL data identified over 3.7 million
              out of 13.4 million total unique recipients with discrepancies associated
              with potential fraud. The presence of fraud indicators is not proof of fraud
              and requires further review and investigation, which is why we have
              referred those recipients to the SBA OIG. Further, as of December 2021,
              DOJ filed PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud-related charges against
              524 individuals, and that number continues to grow. Given limited law
              enforcement and DOJ resources, pursuing millions of potentially
              fraudulent loan and advance recipients may ultimately not be feasible or
              cost effective. When pay-and-chase becomes too difficult or costly to
              pursue, the taxpayers are left to pay for the fraud, bearing its financial and
              non-financial impacts.

              Our fraud indicator analyses demonstrate the value of data analytics in
              fraud detection. Such value can be further realized in fraud prevention.
              The use of internal and external data for mining and matching are
              elements of a robust data analytics program. The Fraud Risk
              Management Board has recognized the benefits of further developing
              SBA’s data analytics program, but the agency does not have the
              mechanisms in place to consistently check applicant information across


               GAO, Highlights of a Forum: Data Analytics for Oversight and Law Enforcement,
              102

              GAO-13-680SP (Washington, D.C.: July 15, 2013).




              Page 79                                                   GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                      programs and may not have timely access to some external data sources
                      that could support fraud prevention and detection. Enhancements to its
                      data analytics program, involving cross-program data checks and external
                      data sources for verification purposes, could facilitate strategic
                      management of fraud risks in SBA’s ongoing and future programs.

                      We are making the following two recommendations to SBA for further
Recommendations for   enhancement of its data analytics program for fraud prevention and
Executive Action      detection:

                      The Administrator of SBA, in coordination with the Fraud Risk
                      Management Board, should ensure that SBA has mechanisms in place
                      and utilizes them to facilitate cross-program data analytics.
                      (Recommendation 1)

                      The Administrator of SBA, in coordination with the Fraud Risk
                      Management Board, should ensure that SBA has identified external
                      sources of data that can facilitate the verification of applicant information
                      and the detection of potential fraud across its programs. It should then
                      develop a plan for obtaining access to those sources, which may involve
                      pursuing statutory authority or entering into data-sharing agreement to
                      obtain such access. (Recommendation 2)

                      We provided a draft of this report to SBA, DOJ, Treasury, and FDIC for
Agency Comments       review and comment. We received written comments from SBA, which
and Our Evaluation    are reproduced in appendix V and summarized below. SBA, DOJ,
                      Treasury, and FDIC provided technical comments that we incorporated as
                      appropriate.

                      In its comments, SBA concurred with both of our recommendations. SBA
                      further stated that it already engages in both of these suggested activities.
                      Regarding our first recommendation, SBA noted it has developed cross-
                      program analytics for pandemic relief programs to identify awardees
                      suspected of identity theft or fraud who received awards and loans
                      through multiple programs. Such actions are consistent with our
                      recommendation, particularly as it relates to fraud detection. However,
                      SBA should also ensure that it has mechanisms in place and utilizes them
                      to facilitate cross-program data analytics before funds are disbursed to
                      help prevent fraud. Regarding our second recommendation, SBA
                      indicated that it is currently developing additional applicant verification
                      capabilities that will leverage third-party data sources. According to SBA,
                      it has met with several federal agencies to explore data-sharing
                      opportunities.


                      Page 80                                               GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
SBA raised several concerns regarding our methodology and
presentation of findings. Specifically, SBA expressed concerns with our
use of the term “fraud indicator” as it relates to our second objective. SBA
appears to limit the use of “fraud indicator” to characteristics that warrant
criminal investigation after program officials have substantially reviewed
an application and determined it represents the highest risk of fraud. As
explained in detail in both the draft and final report, GAO uses fraud
indicator to mean discrepancies found in the data consistent with
characteristics and flags that suggest a potential for fraudulent activity.
We maintain that our methods and use of the term are appropriate. As
intended, our analyses provide insight into the extent fraud indicators
were present, SBA’s exposure to fraud risks, and how some recipients
may have taken advantage of those risks.

SBA also stated that it is likely that the majority of the 3.7 million
recipients we flagged with fraud indicators likely have “no true fraud
indicators.” We disagree. SBA’s statement reflects a fundamental
disagreement about what constitutes a fraud indicator and a lack of
understanding of what a fraud indicator is. Whether a recipient we
identified with a fraud indicator is ultimately found to have engaged in
fraudulent activity is a legal determination usually adjudicated in the
courts. While every fraud indicator may not result in a determination of
fraud, a fraud indicator serves as a red flag for further review and
investigation.

SBA further commented that the draft report omitted any discussion of its
processes to identify potentially fraudulent recipients. We acknowledged
in the draft and final report that SBA established processes to detect
potential fraud. However, the intent of our audit was not to evaluate those
processes and, therefore, our discussion of those processes was limited
and confined primarily to appendix II. Where appropriate, we added
information to the final report on these processes for context. We also
clarified the wording of our third objective, which identifies opportunities
for SBA to enhance its data analytics efforts to facilitate fraud prevention
and detection. Additionally, we plan to review SBA’s antifraud approach
and specifically its four-step process to detect potentially fraudulent loans
and advances and refer them to the SBA OIG in future work.

SBA raised concerns that the results of our fraud indicator analyses did
not account for the inclusion of false positives, or non-fraudulent
recipients, in our results. In its comments, SBA listed various scenarios
that could explain potential false positives. The purpose of our analyses
was to identify the presence of indicators suggesting a recipient may have


Page 81                                              GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
misrepresented information to appear eligible or receive approval for a
larger amount, rather than to identify recipients with the highest
probability of having committed fraud. Our analyses to identify the
presence of indicators also help to provide insights related to SBA’s
exposure to fraud risks, particularly since we were able to use a dataset
that SBA does not have access to. This identification step is the precursor
to additional verification, such as the steps SBA has suggested, to
quantify false positive results. Although we constructed our analyses to
reduce false positives, we repeatedly acknowledge that false positive
results may be included in our results.

Additionally, in the report, we address at length the various false positive
scenarios SBA provided in its comments, as well as provide detailed
information on our methods and tolerances. Specifically, see the following
that address each of the scenarios provided by SBA:

•   Borrower does not appear in NDNH data between October 2019–
    September 2020
    •     Borrower name is different: page 98 (for PPP) and 103 (for
          COVID-19 EIDL) in appendix I, where we explain that the matches
          were based on more than business name
    •     Borrower is a house of worship, religious affiliated private school,
          small nonprofit, farm, or tribal business: report pages 54-55 and
          pages 98-99 (for PPP) and 103-104 (for COVID-19 EIDL) in
          appendix I, as well as below
    •     Legitimate business did not file or was late to file with state
          workforce agency: report page 53, as well as below regarding tax
          non-compliance
    •     Input error: report page 45
    •     Change in EIN: page 98 (for PPP) and 103 (for COVID-19 EIDL)
          in appendix I, where we explain that the matches were based on
          more than EIN

•   Borrower’s employee count does not match that in the NDNH
    database
    •     When borrower applied for loan: report pages 56-57 (including
          sidebar) and page 100 in appendix I, as well as below
    •     Mistake due to confusion regarding calculation of full-time
          equivalent versus full-time employees: report page 59




Page 82                                                GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
•   Borrower’s loan amount based on payroll costs does not match wage
    information in the NDNH database and corresponding payroll
    estimates
    •     Borrower’s calculation of payroll: pages 100-102 in appendix I, as
          well as below
    •     Above-average non-wage employer expenses: report page 61 and
          pages 100-102 in appendix I
    •     Borrower used allowable alternative calculation: report page 62
    •     Borrower or lender made good-faith error in calculation, such as
          incorrectly accounting for COVID-19 EIDL advances: report pages
          61-62

•   Appearance of more than one application with the same information
    •     Number of non-fraudulent reasons: report pages 64-67
    •     Matching methodology not disclosed: pages 102-103 (for PPP)
          and pages 104-105 (for COVID-19 EIDL) in appendix I

•   Appearance of more than one application with some of the same
    information
    •     Borrower is part of a business that maintains multiple legal entities:
          report page 65
    •     Borrower is a rideshare driver: report pages 64-65

•   Borrower reported different information on the COVID-19 EIDL
    application than the PPP application
    •     Borrower applied for a PPP loan and a COVID-19 EIDL loan at
          different times: report page 68

There are two sets of scenarios that warrant further discussion.

First, in its scenarios related to false positives for the no wage data fraud
indicator, SBA incorrectly stated that we did not remove from our match
with the NDNH database certain types of borrowers such as houses of
worship, small nonprofits, or farms, among others. As discussed in the
report and in appendix I, because of exceptions and variations in wage
data reporting requirements among states, we excluded religious
organizations, agricultural enterprises, nonprofit organizations, and very
small businesses from the results of this indicator analysis to the extent
possible based on available data.



Page 83                                                GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Second, in the scenarios SBA identified for the different employee totals
or payroll costs indicators, SBA suggested that false positives could be
the result of timing differences between when a recipient applied for a
PPP loan and the NDNH data we used. In doing so, SBA incorrectly
characterizes our analyses as matching only against one quarter of data.
For our different employee total count analysis, as discussed in appendix
I, we compared the employee count value provided with the PPP loan-
level data to the highest number of paid employees in any of the available
quarters of NDNH wage data prior to and including the quarter of loan
approval. Similarly, for our different payroll costs analysis, we used the
largest (not the average) quarterly wage recorded in NDNH to estimate
monthly payroll costs for the entire reference period recipients were to
use when calculating payroll costs for their PPP application. Therefore,
contrary to SBA’s comments, no recipients were flagged based on a
mismatch between the application employee count or payroll and a single
quarter of NDNH wage data.

Related to its concerns about false positives, SBA suggested that our
results are unreliable because of our use of the NDNH database. SBA
characterized the NDNH as an employee records database, as opposed
to a corporation and business entity database maintained by a secretary
of state. Given that PPP and COVID-19 EIDL eligibility was tied to
whether the business was in operation as of a certain date and the
number of employees and payroll amount affected PPP loan amounts, we
maintain that the use of the NDNH database, with its information related
to employees and their wages, is appropriate. A corporation and business
entity database would not have provided us with relevant insights.

SBA correctly stated that the NDNH database is only made available to
select government agencies through congressional action. However, it
incorrectly stated that the database is not used by government institutions
to verify information and that it is untested. As discussed in a 2019 report,
at least five federal agencies have authority to use NDNH data to verify
employment and income information as part of their program integrity
efforts. 103 That report also describes efforts undertaken to ensure NDNH’s
accuracy and completeness. We recognize that the NDNH database is
one that SBA currently cannot access; we, therefore, performed our



  Congressional Research Service, The National Directly of New Hires: In Brief, RS22889
103

(Washington, D.C,: Oct. 1, 2019). This report also discusses the penalties for the failure of
employers to report required information.




Page 84                                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
analyses to identify the presence of fraud indicators and provide fraud risk
insights from a relatively unique position.

Further, SBA questioned the completeness of the NDNH database given
its reliance on self-reporting, citing figures that suggest that employment
tax non-compliance is about 9 percent of businesses. This
characterization on the extent of employment tax non-compliance is not
accurate. After analyzing the source SBA cited in its comments, we
determined that the 9 percent rate is based on estimated dollar amounts
rather than the proportion of businesses. 104 Additionally, only a small
proportion of the noncompliance rate is attributed to nonfiling. Specifically,
the estimated rate includes three types of noncompliance – nonfiling,
underreporting and underpayment. The noncompliance rate attributable
to nonfiling is less than 1 percent (0.65 percent). As a result, we
acknowledge that the nonfiling rate may reduce the completeness of the
NDNH wage data. However, it does so at a rate that is significantly less
than what SBA stated. Given that most of our identified fraud indicators
relate to nonfiling, we determined that this potential error rate is
acceptable for the purposes of our analysis. 105

SBA raised the concern that the public will be misled and believe that all
3.7 million unique recipients we identified were likely fraudulent. It also
stated that law enforcement, with limited resources, will be forced to
investigate good-faith errors and non-fraudulent actors. We disagree. We
provide explanations to help readers understand what the presence of a
fraud indicator means and does not mean. This includes explaining that
additional review, investigation, and adjudication is needed to determine if
fraud exists.

Further, we made the referral to the SBA OIG consistent with our policy
and only after coordinating with the SBA OIG. Upon receiving the referral,
the SBA OIG indicated it would enrich that office’s ongoing efforts. As
discussed in the report, this includes informing and prioritizing

  Internal Revenue Service, Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for
104

Tax Years 2011–2013, Publication 1415 (Rev. 9-2019).

  In addition, the underreporting noncompliance rate in the source SBA cited could also
105

affect our indicators related to employee counts and payroll amounts. However, the
underreporting estimate in the source SBA cited mainly consists of self-employment tax
underpayment and, as already described in our methodology, we removed applicants who
did not indicate they had other employees from our analysis. The applicable
underpayment rate estimate is less than 3 percent. Given that these fraud indicators make
up a small proportion of our findings, we determined that this potential error rate is
acceptable for the purposes of our analysis.




Page 85                                                      GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
investigative efforts. Additionally, our referral can contribute to the SBA
OIG’s landscape review to develop a comprehensive estimate of the
potential fraud related to PPP and COVD-19 EIDL. This is because, in
part, our referral may include those who have not already been referred
by SBA or identified through ongoing law enforcement efforts. Even for
those who have already been referred or identified, our analyses with the
use of NDNH data may provide new information that warrants further
review.

In discussing our first objective, SBA stated that we did not use any
observations from our analysis of DOJ cases to inform our indicator
analyses. The intent of the first objective was to illustrate how fraud was
committed in closed cases or may have been committed in ongoing
cases, as well as understand the impact of fraudulent activity. Throughout
our indicator analyses discussion, we note consistencies between the
results of our analyses and characteristics we identified in the DOJ cases
and related fraud schemes. For example, our analysis of the 330 DOJ
cases showed that over two-thirds of the cases involved or allegedly
involved non-operating businesses. This is consistent with our “no wage
data” indicator.

SBA further suggested that, based on our analysis of the DOJ cases,
there is no indication that “reused information” is a fraud indicator.
However, our review of the cases showed that individuals made multiple
attempts to defraud the programs, some of whom reused information. For
example, we highlight in the report a case involving a recipient whom we
flagged in our fraud indicator analysis and who, along with co-
conspirators, fraudulently received PPP funds after submitting multiple
applications, including 10 for businesses with the same addresses but
different business names, owners, and descriptions.

SBA also questioned the value of including the regression analysis in our
discussion of lenders that originated higher rates of fraudulent and
potentially fraudulent PPP loans. In addition, SBA critiqued the model for
not being predictive. In describing our regression analysis methods in
detail to allow for replication, we acknowledge limitations and judiciously
use the results in supporting our findings. Specifically, we acknowledge
that these results are not predictive of whether a loan is fraudulent.
Because of the limited information available in the PPP data—for
example, not being able to control for demographic characteristics of loan
applicants due to high rates of missing data—it would be inappropriate to
assume this model explains a majority of the variation in fraudulent loan



Page 86                                             GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
activity, and is neither meant to classify loans as fraudulent, nor predict
and explain fraud.

The value of our analysis is to provide insight into associations between
specific characteristics and indicators of fraud as well as to inform any
future analyses of PPP lender activity to further examine such variables
and associations. Additionally, because of the extremely large size of the
analyzed dataset, we did not rely solely on the statistical significance of
parameter estimates due to the increased likelihood of significance due to
random chance alone. Our method of model assessment and inclusion of
model control variables, as discussed in appendix IV, means that our
analysis and findings are conservative in nature. As a result, there is a
higher chance of not detecting associations that may actually exist.

Finally, SBA stated that the draft report did not acknowledge SBA
leadership in making fraud risk management a top priority and that we
have not reflected the work SBA has done to reduce fraud risks in its
programs. We disagree. For example, appendix II contains information on
how SBA’s efforts to manage fraud risks evolved over the course of the
pandemic. As such, we note the important efforts undertaken by SBA in
2021 and 2022 to establish the Fraud Risk Management Board and
conduct fraud risk assessments. Similarly, our discussion in appendix III
of the status of GAO recommendations highlights areas where SBA has
made progress. Finally, in the third objective, we discuss SBA’s data
analytic efforts, including those that resulted in referrals to the SBA OIG
and determinations that some PPP loans were not eligible for
forgiveness.




Page 87                                              GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
We are sending copies of this report to the appropriate congressional
committees, the SBA Administrator, the SBA OIG, the Attorney General,
the Secretary of the Treasury, the FDIC Chairman, and other interested
parties. In addition, the report is available at no charge on the GAO
website at http://www.gao.gov.

If you or your staff members have any questions about this report, please
contact me at 202-512-6722 or ayersj@gao.gov. Contact points for our
Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on
the last page of this report. GAO staff who made major contributions to
this report are listed in appendix VI.




Johana Ayers
Managing Director, Forensic Audits and Investigative Service




Page 88                                           GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
List of Committees

The Honorable Patty Murray
Chair
The Honorable Susan Collins
Vice Chair
Committee on Appropriations
United States Senate

The Honorable Ron Wyden
Chairman
The Honorable Mike Crapo
Committee on Finance
United States Senate

The Honorable Bernard Sanders
Chair
The Honorable Bill Cassidy
Ranking Member
Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions
United States Senate

The Honorable Gary C. Peters
Chairman
The Honorable Rand Paul, M.D.
Ranking Member
Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs
United States Senate

The Honorable Ben Cardin
Chair
The Honorable Joni K. Ernst
Ranking Member
Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship
United States Senate

The Honorable Kay Granger
Chair
The Honorable Rosa L. DeLauro
Ranking Member
Committee on Appropriations
House of Representatives



Page 89                                        GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
The Honorable Cathy McMorris Rodgers
Chair
The Honorable Frank Pallone, Jr.
Committee on Energy and Commerce
House of Representatives

The Honorable Mark E. Green, MD
Chairman
The Honorable Bennie G. Thompson
Ranking Member
Committee on Homeland Security
House of Representatives

The Honorable James Comer
Chairman
The Honorable Jamie Raskin
Ranking Member
Committee on Oversight and Accountability
House of Representatives

The Honorable Roger Williams
Chairman
The Honorable Nydia M. Velázquez
Ranking Member
Committee on Small Business
House of Representatives

The Honorable Jason Smith
Chairman
The Honorable Richard Neal
Ranking Member
Committee on Ways and Means
House of Representatives




Page 90                                     GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and
              Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and
              Methodology



Methodology

              Our objectives were to (1) analyze fraud cases charged by the
              Department of Justice (DOJ) involving Paycheck Protection Program
              (PPP) and COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) to
              understand fraud schemes and impacts; (2) provide the results of select
              data analyses to identify PPP and COVID-19 EIDL recipients with fraud
              indicators, as well as fraud-related lender activity in PPP; and (3) identify
              opportunities for SBA to enhance its data analytics to prevent and detect
              potential fraud. 1

              For all of our objectives, we interviewed officials from the Small Business
              Administration’s (SBA) Office of Capital Access, Office of Disaster
              Assistance, and Office of Continuous Operations and Risk Management,
              as well as senior officials who were members of SBA’s Fraud Risk
              Management Council and Fraud Risk Management Board. Additionally,
              we interviewed officials from the Department of the Treasury (Treasury),
              DOJ, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the SBA
              Office of Inspector General (OIG).

              For objective 1, to conduct thematic analysis of fraud cases charged by
              DOJ, we identified 330 criminal and civil cases involving PPP and
              COVID-19 EIDL based on publicly announced DOJ cases and federal
              court documents from May 2020 to December 31, 2021. 2 We identified
              the 330 cases included in our analysis by subscribing to alerts from
              Westlaw, a legal news service, using search terms “Paycheck Protection
              Program” and “Economic Injury Disaster Loan.” We also conducted
              periodic checks of the Westlaw database and used other available

              1Fraud indicators are characteristics and flags that serve as warning signs suggesting a

              potential for fraudulent activity. The indicators can be used to identify potential fraud and
              assess fraud risk but are not proof of fraud, which is determined through the judicial or
              other adjudicative system.
              2Fraud cases are those PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases that involve fraud-related

              charges. Fraud-related charges include criminal fraud charges associated with PPP or
              COVID-19 EIDL fraud schemes, such as bank fraud or wire fraud, as well as other
              charges for crimes used to execute fraud schemes, such as money laundering or
              conspiracy charges. Alternatively, DOJ can pursue civil remedies for suspected fraud
              under the False Claims Act, 31 U.S.C. § 3729-3733 and the Financial Institutions Reform,
              Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989, 12 U.S.C. § 1833a.

              We selected December 31, 2021, as the ending point of our research because on
              December 31, 2021, SBA stopped accepting COVID-19 EIDL applications (per
              Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021). PPP closed in May 2021. We acknowledge that
              DOJ has continued to bring charges involving PPP and COVID-19 EIDL since December
              31, 2021, and that later cases may involve more complex fraud schemes that may take
              longer to investigate and prosecute.




              Page 91                                                          GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and
Methodology




sources such as the DOJ Fraud Section website. 3 For identified cases,
we used Public Access to Court Electronic Records to access and
download documents used in the court proceedings, such as indictments,
criminal information, and plea agreements. 4

To conduct the thematic analysis of the 330 cases, we used the GAO
Conceptual Fraud Model. The model is organized as an ontology, which
provides an explicit description of categories of federal fraud, their
characteristics, and the relationships among them. 5 This thematic
analysis was structured and organized using WebProtégé, an ontology
modeling tool developed by the Stanford Center for Biomedical
Informatics Research at the Stanford University School of Medicine. For
each case, we documented structured information about the case, each
charged individual, and, when identified in court documents, businesses
that applied for the loans or advances. After entering and verifying
information in WebProtégé, we analyzed the aggregate data to describe
the characteristics of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL fraud cases.

For the purposes of our analysis, we considered DOJ cases as closed
when they reached conclusion through a guilty plea, settlement,
dismissed charges, or a verdict at trial. We considered cases as ongoing
when they had not reached a conclusion as of December 31, 2021. Some
of our ongoing cases have since reached conclusions, but those
conclusions are not reflected in our analysis. Also, a single case—which
involves fraud-related charges associated with PPP, COVID-19 EIDL, or
both programs—may involve a single or multiple individuals or
businesses, that applied for a single or multiple loans or grants, and
contain a single or multiple fraud mechanisms.

Our analysis is limited to the 330 DOJ cases we identified from public
sources, which may not include all criminal and civil cases related to PPP
and COVID-19 EIDL charged by DOJ as of December 31, 2021.
Additionally, our analysis is based on known information presented in

3DOJ, Fraud Section Enforcement Related to the CARES Act,

https://www.justice.gov/criminal-fraud/cares-act-fraud
4Public Access to Court Electronic Records is a service of the federal judiciary that

enables the public to search online for case information from U.S. district, bankruptcy, and
appellate courts. Federal court records available through this system include case
information (such as names of parties, proceedings, and documents filed) as well as
information on case status.
5GAO, GAO Fraud Ontology Version 1.0, published January 10, 2022.
https://gaoinnovations.gov/antifraud_resource/howfraudworks




Page 92                                                        GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and
Methodology




court documents. The specific details of fraud cases and schemes in the
court documents may not be complete. For example, names of
businesses that applied for loans, dollar amounts applied or obtained, or
all fraud mechanisms may not be identified in court documents. Also,
DOJ generally pursues prosecution when officials are confident they can
prove criminal intent beyond a reasonable doubt, and therefore not all
investigations are pursued into litigation.

To identify illustrative cases of fraud involving PPP and COVID-19 EIDL
funds, we used the case information we had documented to judgmentally
select examples within key areas of findings. 6 We selected cases that
contained sufficient levels of detail in available documentation for use as
illustrative examples and that collectively represented a range of
jurisdictions and programs involved (PPP, COVID-19 EIDL, or both).

We limited our selection to closed cases and generally to cases that had
a loan amount obtained within the 2nd or 3rd quartile of all loan amounts
obtained to avoid cases with unusually high or low loan amounts. Cases
selected through this analysis are intended to illustrate examples of how
fraud occurred (closed cases) or may have occurred (ongoing cases).
The illustrative cases are not generalizable to all fraud cases or all
potential fraud involving PPP or COVID-19 EIDL.

To calculate actual and potential financial impacts associated with
criminal PPP and COVID-19 EIDL cases, we categorized the cases
based on whether they were closed or ongoing. We characterized losses
for closed cases as direct losses and for ongoing cases as potential
losses. We characterized all offsets for closed and ongoing cases as
potential offsets because potential offsets include restitution that has
been ordered, but not necessarily repaid. As a result, sums of potential
offsets cannot be subtracted from losses to arrive at the total cost of fraud
for these programs. Additionally, potential offsets may include costs to the
government, such as maintenance of seized assets, among others. We
reported totals in the following two categories:


6The key areas of findings are (1) eligibility misrepresentation cases where individuals

misrepresented eligibility and program rules were circumvented; (2) false information or
identity theft cases where individuals used false information or used another person’s
personally identifiable information or a business’s information; (3) facilitators cases where
individuals knowingly assisted, recruited, or provided guidance to PPP and COVID-19
EIDL applicants on how to circumvent SBA controls; and (4) broader fraud related to
COVID-19, including pandemic relief programs, or other crimes.




Page 93                                                         GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and
Methodology




•   Losses: monetary losses incurred by the federal government through
    PPP and COVID-19 EIDL government guarantees, lender fees, or
    direct lending, excluding costs associated with fraud investigations
    and prosecution. 7

•   Potential offsets: monetary recoveries received, retained, or both, by
    the government, including funds ordered to be paid to the government
    or the lender in connection with an adjudicated finding of fraud. 8

Finally, to describe non-financial impact of fraudulent and potentially
fraudulent activity associated with PPP and COVID-19 EIDL, we
developed a framework that identified non-financial ways in which fraud
against SBA pandemic relief programs can manifest itself. We primarily
relied on areas of impact identified in the GAO Conceptual Fraud Model
and the International Public Sector Fraud Forum’s (IPSFF) Guide to
Understanding the Total Impact of Fraud. 9 Based on our review of the
areas of impact identified in GAO’s Conceptual Fraud Model and IPSFF
guide, and considering relevance of impact areas in the context of SBA
pandemic relief programs that provide emergency loans and grants to
small businesses, we selected six areas of non-financial impact to
examine further in our analysis:

(1) economic relief goal;

(2) stakeholder;

(3) security;


7We measured financial impact separately for closed and ongoing cases. For closed

cases, we measured: (1) PPP and COVID-19 EIDL amounts obtained and (2) PPP lender
fee amount. For ongoing cases, we measured: (1) PPP and COVID-19 EIDL amounts
obtained and (2) PPP lender fee amount at risk. To calculate lender fees, we matched
businesses identified in DOJ cases that received PPP loans with PPP loan-level data. For
matched businesses, we calculated lender fees based on the amount of the loan and
applicable percentages established by SBA.
8For ongoing cases, we measured potential direct offsets using PPP and COVID-19 EIDL

total amount seized. For closed cases, we measured actual direct offsets using PPP and
COVID-19 EIDL amount subject to restitution.
9International Public Sector Fraud Forum, Guide to Understanding the Total Impact of

Fraud, February 2020. The Forum was established in 2017 by government officials from
Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The goal of
the forum is to use shared knowledge to reduce the risk and harm of fraud and corruption
in the public sector across the world.




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(4) reputational;

(5) impact on victim; and

(6) impact on fraudster.

For each identified area of non-financial impact, we developed definitions
relevant to the SBA context and informed by GAO’s Conceptual Fraud
Model and the areas of impact developed by the IPSFF. To develop
statements of impact for each selected area of impact above, we obtained
three or more separate sources relevant to each area of impact, to
include government and industry reports, DOJ fraud case examples,
media reports, and interview with DOJ officials. These statements of
impact are not all encompassing or inclusive of all possible ways the non-
financial impact of pandemic relief programs fraud can manifest itself.

For objective 2, we analyzed PPP and COVID-19 EIDL loan- and
advance-level data for indicators of fraud. Fraud indicators are
characteristics and flags (for simplicity of discussion, we generally use the
term “flags” or “flagged” throughout this section of the appendix) that
serve as warning signs of potentially fraudulent activity. These flags can
be used to identify potential fraud and assess fraud risk but are not proof
of fraud, which is determined through the judicial or other adjudicative
system. Our identifications of unique recipients with fraud indicators are
based on discrepancies we found in the data consistent with
characteristics and flags that suggest a potential for fraudulent activity.

It is possible that the results of our analyses may include non-fraudulent
recipients with one or more data discrepancies that were identified as
fraud indicators. There are multiple factors that may explain why a non-
fraudulent recipient has a discrepancy consistent with a fraud indicator.
One such factor is data entry errors by recipients or those involved in the
approval of funds. There may also be other factors contributing to the
identification of non-fraudulent recipients, including those related to
confusion about how to complete an application. In presenting the results
of our specific analyses, we also noted other factors that may explain why
a non-fraudulent recipient has a discrepancy consistent with a particular
fraud indicator and the steps we took to reduce the number of non-
fraudulent recipients identified. The results of our analyses should not be
interpreted as proof of fraud. Additional review, investigation, and
adjudication is needed to determine if and the extent to which fraud
exists.



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Additionally, the results of our analyses may also include recipients
(1) whom DOJ has prosecuted for fraud, (2) who may be subject to
ongoing investigations, 10 (3) whose loans or advances were flagged by
SBA for other reasons but not pursued as potential fraud, or (4) whose
loans or advances were not flagged by SBA based on fraud indicators.
Therefore, this is may include recipients already flagged by SBA or the
SBA OIG as potentially fraudulent.

We reviewed eligibility requirements for PPP and COVID-19 EIDL loans
and advances and determined fraud indicators that could be identified in
the available data. Specifically, we identified

•      recipients who did not have wage data, suggesting the possibility a
       business may be a shell company or may not have been in operation
       prior to October 2020;
•      PPP recipients who had different employee totals or estimated payroll
       costs than expected based on wage data, suggesting the possibility of
       inflated employee counts or payroll costs to appear eligible for larger
       loans or greater forgiveness; and
•      recipients of funds based on multiple applications though both
       programs limited each unique business entity to one funded
       application in each program.
We also identified recipients who successfully submitted applications
using contact, identifying, or business information identical to at least one
other recipient.

To conduct our analyses, we obtained PPP and COVID-19 EIDL loan-
and advance-level data from SBA. This included PPP loan-level data as
of June 30, 2021, and PPP forgiveness and COVID-19 EIDL loan- and
advance-level data as of December 31, 2021 (the most-current data
available when we began our review). We also obtained one year of
national quarterly wage data from the Department of Health and Human
Services’ National Directory of New Hires (NDNH) for the period ending
September 30, 2020, which provided business data, including employee
counts and paid wages before and during the pandemic. NDNH is a
national repository of new hire, quarterly wage, and unemployment
insurance information reported by employers, states, and federal
agencies. The NDNH is maintained and used by the Department of

10  Investigative agencies do not typically comment on ongoing investigations.




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                                        Health and Human Services for the federal child support enforcement
                                        program, which assists states in locating parents and enforcing child
                                        support orders. SBA does not have access to NDNH information. 11
                                        However, similar information such as number of employees and wages
                                        paid can be found on the employer’s federal tax return and other
                                        employer filings. See figure 14 for the time periods and data covered.

Figure 14: National Directory of New Hires (NDNH) and Small Business Administration (SBA) Pandemic Relief Data Obtained
for GAO Analysis




                                        Note: PPP and COVID-19 EIDL limited eligibility to businesses in operation as of February 15, 2020,
                                        and January 31, 2020, respectively. SBA allowed COVID-19 EIDL businesses in the process of
                                        starting operations as of January 31, 2020, to participate as long as certain documentation was
                                        provided to show that the business was in the organizing stage.


                                        For our analyses to identify unique recipients with indicators of PPP fraud,
                                        we matched PPP loan-level data for approximately 3.1 million unique
                                        recipients to four quarters of NDNH wage data using a combination of
                                        employer identification numbers (EIN), Social Security numbers (SSN),
                                        business names, addresses, and states identified in PPP application
                                        data. This allowed us to compare provided PPP application data to

                                         Federal law restricts access to the NDNH database to authorized persons and entities,
                                        11

                                        and for authorized uses. As of May 2023, SBA was not an authorized user of the NDNH
                                        database and, as such, did not have access to NDNH wage data.




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corresponding NDNH wage data to identify unique recipients with fraud
indicators related to the number of employees, payroll expenses, and
existence of wage data.

We also reviewed the loan-level data to determine whether applicants
used the same underlying information to submit multiple applications with
different identifying or business information, and to determine if loans
were disbursed to multiple recipients using the same information.

Our PPP analyses consisted of the steps described below.

•    Our initial review of the PPP loan-level data revealed several
     recipients who received first draw and second draw loans using
     different tax identifiers (e.g., used the business EIN for the first draw
     loan and the owner’s SSN for the second draw loan). 12 In order to
     identify unique recipients, we used a waterfall matching entity
     resolution technique. This technique uses multiple combinations of
     different variables such as tax identifier, business name
     (standardized), and business address (standardized through United
     States Postal Service address matching software) to identify unique
     entities. For example, the first match could include variables A, B, and
     C while a second match might include variables A, C, and D to identify
     a unique recipient.
•    To determine whether the business was in operation before February
     15, 2020, we compared recipients in the loan-level data to those
     recipients matched to NDNH wage data. We flagged unique recipients
     who reported two or more employees on their PPP application but did
     not match any NDNH wage data. Independent contractors and self-
     employed individuals—who do not pay employees and therefore do
     not submit wage data—were not considered in our analysis if they
     claimed one employee on their PPP application.
     After obtaining the results of an initial match of PPP and NDNH wage
     data, we took steps to exclude business types that do not consistently
     have to report wage data. There are exceptions to quarterly wage
     reporting requirements that vary by state and by business type. To
     identify business types that do not consistently have to report wage
     data, we reviewed the reporting requirements for the ten states that
     accounted for almost 60 percent of all funded recipients. These ten


 A borrower’s first PPP loan, which could be received in either 2020 or 2021, is referred to
12

as a “first draw loan.” Borrowers that received first draw loans could apply for a second
draw PPP loan in 2021, based on different eligibility requirements.




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     states collectively do not always require the following business types
     to report wage data:
     •    religious organizations,
     •    agricultural enterprises,
     •    nonprofit organizations, or
     •    “very small” businesses paying less than $10,000 per year in
          wages.
     Then, to the extent possible based on available data, we excluded
     these business types from the results of our analysis. As a result, we
     excluded 167,200 unique PPP recipients from our analysis related to
     the no matching wage data indicator. Specifically, the results of our
     analysis do not include 102,800 recipients who applied as nonprofit
     organizations, 70,900 religious organizations, or 64,600 agricultural
     enterprises that received PPP loans but that we could not match to
     NDNH wage data. 13
     However, we were able to match 112,400 recipients who applied as
     nonprofit organizations, 13,500 religious organizations,
     63,600 agricultural enterprises, and 1,300 very small businesses that
     received PPP loans to the NDNH wage data.
     To identify recipients who applied as very small businesses—paying
     less than $10,000 per year in wages—we used the following
     equations. These equations use the approved PPP loan amount to
     determine a) the payroll costs used to calculate that loan amount and
     b) the amount of payroll costs attributable to wages paid. See text box
     for calculation of payroll costs estimated from approved first draw PPP
     loan amount and estimate of paid wages. 14 See later discussion on
     discrepancies related to payroll costs for explanation of paid wages
     estimated as 78 percent of total payroll costs.



13No PPP recipients were identified as very small businesses who claimed two or more
employees but were not matched to NDNH wage data. Unique recipients may be
associated with more than one category of potentially excluded business types, so
individual categories will not sum to 167,200.
14We used the example calculation to estimate payroll costs based on first draw PPP loan
amounts only. Payroll costs used to calculate second draw PPP loans were estimated by
reversing the calculations on SBA Form 2483-SD. For applicants with North American
Industry Classification System codes beginning with “72,” estimated payroll costs =
[approved second draw PPP loan] ÷ 3.5; for other second draw applicants, estimated
payroll costs = [approved second draw PPP loan] ÷ 2.5.




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    Reported payroll costs calculation
    Estimated payroll costs = ([Approved first draw Paycheck Protection Program loan] –
    [COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan]) ÷ 2.5

    Paid wages calculation
    Paid wages = [Estimated payroll costs] x 0.78
Source: GAO. | GAO-23-105331



       Recipients that we could match to NDNH wage data regardless of
       business type were included in our other analyses, such as those
       related to employee counts and payroll costs.
       Businesses that were in operation prior to October 2019 but did not
       submit wage data between October 2019 and September 2020 may
       be included in the unique recipients flagged in this analysis. This
       includes seasonal businesses that did not operate at all during this
       time period. Seasonal business operations can fluctuate and result in
       businesses closing for parts of the year. However, a lack of a match to
       NDNH wage data indicates that a business may not have paid any
       employees from October 2019 through September 2020, raising the
       possibility that it was a shell company or non-operational business.
•      To determine whether there were discrepancies in employee counts,
       we compared the employee count value provided with the PPP loan-
       level data to the highest number of paid employees in any of the
       available quarters of NDNH wage data—as opposed to the average
       number of employees across all quarters—prior to and including the
       quarter of loan approval. We limited this comparison to those unique
       recipients who indicated two or more employees on their PPP
       applications. To account for PPP application employee counts based
       on a 12-month timeframe other than October 2019 through
       September 2020—for example, new employees hired after September
       2020 and included in the application employee count average—we
       added a 10 or 50 percent buffer to the paid employee count in NDNH.
       Specifically:
       •   For business with 10 or more paid employees in the NDNH wage
           data, we flagged unique recipients who reported greater than
           10 percent more employees than were recorded in NDNH.
       •   For businesses with fewer than 10 paid employees in the NDNH
           wage data, we flagged unique recipients who reported more than
           50 percent more employees than were recorded in NDNH.
•      To identify discrepancies related to payroll costs, we estimated the
       expected PPP loan amount using the monthly equivalent of the


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        highest total wages paid in any single quarter of available NDNH
        wage data—not the average of wages paid across all available
        quarters—prior to and including the quarter of loan approval, as well
        as any associated COVID-19 EIDL loan amounts, to estimate monthly
        payroll costs. We then compared the estimated loan amount to the
        approved loan amount in the PPP loan-level data.
        The maximum PPP loan amount was based on payroll costs, which
        include additional employer expenses beyond employee wages.
        However, the NDNH data reflect wages paid, which are one
        component of payroll costs. As a result, we estimated overall payroll
        costs using NDNH wage data and the Department of Labor’s Bureau
        of Labor Statistics data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics
        data, non-wage employer expenses in the private industry averaged
        approximately 19.3 percent of total payroll costs in 2019 and 2020. 15
        We rounded this to 20 percent and added an additional 2 percent to
        account for potential variation across businesses. This brought the
        total percentage of non-wage employer expenses to 22 percent.
        Therefore, we estimated wages paid—and recorded in NDNH—were
        78 percent of total payroll costs. After estimating payroll costs (as
        monthly wages estimated from NDNH wages paid divided by 78
        percent), we added an additional 10 percent buffer to further mitigate
        variations across businesses and limitations of available data. See
        text box for calculation of total estimated payroll costs.

     Total estimated payroll cost calculation
     Total estimated payroll costs = (Highest monthly wages estimated from National
     Directory of New Hires quarterly wage data ÷ 0.78) * 110%
Source: GAO. | GAO-23-105331



        Using the estimated payroll costs, we used equations provided on first
        draw and second draw PPP loan applications to calculate maximum

15This percentage is based on Bureau of Labor Statistics private industry data for June
2019 and March 2020. Non-wage employer costs averaged 19.3 percent of total
employee compensation (18.8 to 19.8 percent at the 95 percent confidence level). These
non-wage employer costs are composed of insurance, retirement and savings, and legally
required benefits costs—which include costs for Social Security, Medicare, workers’
compensation, and both state and federal unemployment insurance—as described by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Bureau of Labor Statistics data are derived from approximately
6,400 private industry entities for June 2019 costs and 6,300 private industry entities for
March 2020 costs. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employer Costs
for Employee Compensation – June 2019, USDL-19-1649, p.4. U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employer Costs for Employee Compensation – March 2020,
USDL-20-1232, p.4.




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        eligible loan amounts (2.5 or 3.5 times payroll costs, depending on the
        business industry and if it was a first or second draw loan). First draw
        PPP loans could also be increased to refinance COVID-19 EIDL
        loans. For PPP recipients who had also received COVID-19 EIDL
        loans, we added the total amount of COVID-19 EIDL loan funds
        disbursed as of December 31, 2021 (excluding advance funds) to the
        calculated PPP loan amount prior to conducting our final analysis.
        See text box for an example of our calculation of a maximum eligible
        first draw PPP loan amount. 16

     Maximum eligible loan calculation
     Estimated first draw Paycheck Protection Program loan = 2.5 x [Total estimated payroll
     costs] + [COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan]
     Calculation notes:
     Total estimated payroll costs = (Highest monthly wages estimated from National
     Directory of New Hires quarterly wage data ÷ 0.78) * 110%
     COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan = COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan
     amount associated with matched recipient
Source: GAO. | GAO-23-105331



        We flagged those unique recipients whose approved PPP loan
        amounts exceeded the loan amounts we estimated using the above
        payroll cost calculation, actual wages recorded in the NDNH, and
        associated COVID-19 EIDL loan amounts. We limited this comparison
        to those recipients with matching NDNH wage data.
•       To determine if recipients may have received funds in violation of
        program limits on the number of loans per business entity, we flagged
        unique recipients who received more than one funded loan that were
        identified as the same unique recipient using the waterfall matching
        technique discussed above. This analysis considered only unique
        recipients who received more than one first draw PPP loan and did
        not flag recipients who received one first and one second draw loan
        for the same business.
•       To determine if multiple loans were disbursed to recipients using the
        same information, we reviewed and compared recipient information


16The example calculation provided was used to estimate maximum eligible first draw PPP
loans only. Maximum eligible second draw loan estimates were calculated using the
equation on SBA Form 2483-SD. For applicants with North American Industry
Classification System codes beginning with “72,” estimated second draw PPP loans = 3.5
x [payroll costs]; for other applicants, estimated second draw PPP loans = 2.5 x [payroll
costs]. These calculations applied only to those unique recipients who matched NDNH
wage data.




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    such as EIN, SSN, business name, business address, business type,
    and reported employee count.
    We flagged unique recipients who provided
    •      the same business name and address as at least one other
           unique recipient but a different EIN or SSN;
    •      the same address and business information as at least one other
           unique recipient but a different business name and EIN or SSN; or
    •      a business address associated with at least five unique recipients.
For our analysis to identify unique recipients with indicators of COVID-19
EIDL fraud, we matched loan- and advance-level data on almost
1.5 million unique recipients to four quarters of NDNH wage data using a
combination of the EINs, business names, addresses, and states
identified in COVID-19 EIDL loan and advance application data. This
allowed us to compare provided COVID-19 EIDL application data to
corresponding NDNH wage data to identify unique recipients with fraud
indicators related to the existence of the business. We also reviewed the
loan- and advance-level data to identify unique recipients who used the
same underlying information to submit multiple applications with different
identifying or business information, and to determine if loans or advances
were disbursed to multiple recipients using the same information.

Our COVID-19 EIDL analyses consisted of the steps described below:

•   As with our PPP analysis, we used a waterfall matching entity
    resolution technique to identify unique COVID-19 EIDL recipients.
•   To determine whether businesses were in operation on or before
    January 31, 2020, we compared recipients in the loan- and advance-
    level data to those recipients matched to NDNH wage data. 17 We
    flagged unique recipients who indicated two or more employees on
    their COVID-19 EIDL application but did not match any NDNH wage
    data. As with the PPP analysis, independent contractors and self-
    employed individuals were not considered in our analysis if they
    claimed one employee on their COVID-19 EIDL application.
    We also excluded those business types that do not consistently have
    to report wage data from the results of our analysis, as discussed
    above. This resulted in us excluding 225,300 unique COVID-19 EIDL

17SBA allowed COVID-19 EIDL businesses in the process of starting operations as of

January 31, 2020, to participate as long as certain documentation was provided to show
that the business was in the organizing stage.




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    recipients from our analysis related to the wage data indicator.
    Specifically, the results of our analysis do not include
    13,200 recipients who applied as nonprofit organizations,
    28,100 religious organizations, or 190,200 agricultural enterprises that
    received COVID-19 EIDL funds but that we could not match to NDNH
    wage data. 18
    However, we were able to match 9,100 recipients who applied as
    nonprofit organizations, 3,200 religious organizations, and
    17,300 agricultural enterprises that received COVID-19 EIDL funds to
    NDNH wage data.
•   Similar to our PPP analysis to determine if recipients received multiple
    loans, we flagged COVID-19 EIDL recipients who received more than
    one funded loan or advance that were identified as the same unique
    recipient using the waterfall matching technique. This analysis
    considered only unique recipients who received funds from more than
    one approved COVID-19 EIDL loan or advance application. It did not
    flag recipients who received increases after the initial loan
    disbursement or multiple types of COVID-19 EIDL advances (such as
    an advance disbursed prior to the initiation of targeted advances as
    well as a targeted advance) based on a single application.
•   As with our PPP analysis to determine if multiple loans were
    disbursed to unique recipients using the same information, we
    reviewed and compared recipient information such as EIN, SSN,
    business name, business address, bank account and internet protocol
    (IP) address; and business information such as business type,
    reported employee count, and owner EIN and name.
    We flagged unique recipients who provided
    •      the same business name and address as at least one other
           unique recipient but a different EIN or SSN;
    •      the same address and business information as at least one other
           unique recipient but a different business name and EIN or SSN;
    •      a business address associated with at least five unique recipients;
    •      an IP address associated with at least 10 unique recipients;


18COVID-19 EIDL loans and advances were not payroll- or wage-dependent, as PPP

loans were. We, therefore, could not determine which recipients applied as very small
businesses. As a result, no very small businesses were excluded from the results of our
comparison of COVID-19 EIDL loan- and advance-level data to NDNH wage data. Unique
recipients may be associated with more than one category of potentially excluded
business types, so individual categories do not sum to 225,300.




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    •      the same bank routing number and account number as at least
           one other unique recipient; or
    •      the same owner EIN as at least one other unique recipient but a
           different owner name.
In addition, we compared PPP loan-level data to COVID-19 EIDL loan-
and advance-level data to identify unique recipients of funds from both
programs. We reviewed matching unique recipients to determine if
corresponding applications had consistent information between programs
and if fraud indicators, where identified, could have informed each
program.

To assess the reliability of the NDNH, PPP, and COVID-19 EIDL data, we
reviewed documents related to the data, interviewed knowledgeable
officials, and performed electronic testing to determine the validity of
specific data elements used to perform our work. On the basis of our
reliability assessment results, we determined that the data were
sufficiently reliable for the purposes of matching and identifying
discrepancies that indicate potential fraud. The results of our analyses,
including the identification of discrepancies associated with a fraud
indicator, should not be interpreted as proof of fraud.

We also sought to report the number of unique recipients identified in our
analyses who were already associated with SBA OIG records. To do so,
we provided SBA OIG a list of all unique recipients associated with at
least one fraud indicator based on our analyses and the associated PPP
loan number(s) or COVID-19 EIDL application number(s). However, the
SBA OIG informed us that it is currently developing and assessing the
dataset necessary to conduct such a match. As such, the SBA OIG was
unable to provide a response in time for inclusion in this report.

To analyze lending activity for PPP loans issued to borrowers charged by
DOJ, we leveraged information on fraud cases as discussed in objective
1. We matched businesses identified through DOJ fraud cases to PPP
loan-level data, which contained associated lender information. We
analyzed matched data to identify characteristics of lenders with fraud
cases, including lenders with the most fraud cases. Further, to provide
insight into associations among variables of lender and borrower
characteristics as well as to inform any future analyses, we conducted a
statistical analysis using logistic regressions. A logistic regression
describes the relationship between a binary outcome variable—in this
case incidents of alleged fraud charged by DOJ—and select factors of
interest, such as loan- and lender-level characteristics and select fraud


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indicators, while controlling for other factors. See appendix IV for
information on our regression analysis.

Finally, we collected and analyzed data on suspicious activity reports filed
by financial institutions for PPP from the Treasury’s Financial Crime
Enforcement Network from April 2020 through December 31, 2021. We
categorized each unique suspicious activity report by month and reporting
lender type.

For objective 3, we evaluated SBA’s data analytic efforts for opportunities
to enhance fraud prevention and detection. We did so by reviewing
previous GAO reports, the results of our own fraud indicator analyses,
and SBA documents. We assessed SBA’s efforts against the leading
practices identified in GAO’s Fraud Risk Framework we determined to be
most relevant. Specifically, those practices relate to conducting (1) data
mining to identify suspicious activities and transactions and (2) data
matching to verify key information. 19

In appendix II, we summarized SBA fraud risk management efforts
throughout the pandemic across its four pandemic relief programs. We
reviewed prior GAO, SBA OIG, and Pandemic Response Accountability
Committee reports to gain information about the prior oversight work and
recommendations that had been made regarding SBA’s fraud risk
management of the pandemic relief programs. 20 We reviewed SBA
documentation, such as (1) fraud risk assessments; (2) antifraud
procedures related to PPP, COVID-19 EIDL, the Restaurant
Revitalization Fund, and the Shuttered Venue Operators Grant; (3) Fraud
Risk Management Council meeting minutes; and (4) the Fraud Risk
Management Board charter and meeting minutes, among other
documents.

We also interviewed SBA officials to learn about fraud risk management
efforts across pandemic relief programs. In reporting on SBA fraud risk
management efforts, we considered all four components of GAO’s Fraud

 GAO, A Framework for Managing Fraud Risks in Federal Programs, GAO-15-593SP
19

(Washington, D.C.: July 2015). Data mining analyzes data for relationships that have not
previously been discovered. Data matching is a process in which information from one
source is compared with information from another, such as government or third-party
databases, to identify any inconsistencies.
20The Pandemic Response Accountability Committee (PRAC) was established by the
CARES Act to conduct oversight of the federal government’s pandemic response and
recovery effort. The PRAC is composed of 21 federal inspectors general.




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Risk Framework—commit, assess, design and implement, and evaluate
and adapt—as well as relevant leading practices of the Framework under
each component.

We conducted this performance audit from July 2021 to May 2023, in
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain
sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our
findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that
the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and
conclusions based on our audit objectives.




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Appendix II: Overview of SBA’s Fraud Risk
                               Appendix II: Overview of SBA’s Fraud Risk
                               Management Efforts Implementing the
                               Pandemic Relief Programs


Management Efforts Implementing the
Pandemic Relief Programs
                               The Small Business Administration (SBA) moved quickly under
                               challenging circumstances to develop and launch four pandemic relief
                               programs to help offset the economic hardships facing small businesses.
                               However, early in the pandemic, external factors—such as legislative
                               design and the large scale of the programs—increased fraud risks across
                               SBA’s pandemic relief programs. These external factors along with SBA’s
                               lack of strategic fraud risk management in its ongoing programs prior to
                               the pandemic—such as a lack of dedicated antifraud entity and fraud risk
                               assessments—contributed to missed opportunities for SBA to
                               strategically manage fraud risks.

                               Throughout the pandemic, SBA adapted its fraud risk management
                               approach and added controls as fraud schemes emerged. However,
                               these actions were reactive and may not have been fully effective.
                               Further, key actions, such as formally assessing fraud risks as called for
                               in GAO’s Fraud Risk Framework, occurred after most funds were
                               distributed. 1 These actions nevertheless represent important steps in
                               SBA’s efforts to mature its fraud risk management.

Legislative Design, Scale
of Pandemic Relief
Programs, and Lack of
Strategic Fraud Risk
Management Contributed
to Missed Opportunities
for SBA
Legislative Design and Large   In its initial response to the pandemic, SBA moved quickly under
Scale of Pandemic Relief       challenging circumstances to develop and launch the Paycheck
Programs Increased Fraud       Protection Program (PPP) and the COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster
Risks                          Loan (COVID-19 EIDL). SBA was tasked with delivering pandemic relief
                               programs that far exceeded the size of SBA’s prior disaster relief and
                               ongoing lending programs. The legislative design that eliminated certain
                               verification requirements coupled with the large scale of the programs,
                               increased fraud risks.



                               1GAO, A Framework for Managing Fraud Risks in Federal Programs, GAO-15-593SP
                               (Washington, D.C.: July 2015).




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                                       As illustrated in figure 15, the CARES Act changed some fraud-related
                                       requirements in PPP, as compared to the 7(a) program, and COVID-19
                                       EIDL, as compared to traditional EIDL. 2

Figure 15: Examples of Changes to Traditional Small Business Administration (SBA) Programs Made by the CARES Act




                                       2CARES Act, Pub. L. No. 116-136, 134 Stat. 281 (2020). The PPP was authorized under
                                       SBA’s existing 7(a) small business lending program. The 7(a) loan guarantee program
                                       provides small businesses access to capital that they would not be able to access in the
                                       competitive market. The COVID-19 EIDL program was partially based on an existing SBA-
                                       administered program providing EIDL disaster loans. EIDL, which is part of SBA’s Disaster
                                       Loan Program, provides low-interest loans to help borrowers—small businesses and
                                       nonprofit organizations located in a disaster area—meet obligations or pay ordinary and
                                       necessary operating expenses. In this report, we refer to the Economic Injury Disaster
                                       Loan provisions of SBA’s Disaster Loan Program as “traditional” EIDL and to the EIDL
                                       program designed to help small businesses recover from the economic impacts of the
                                       COVID-19 pandemic as COVID-19 EIDL.




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SBA officials explained that when Congress created PPP and COVID-19
EIDL, it removed safeguards that had been in place for the 7(a) and
traditional EIDL programs pre-pandemic in an effort to expedite loan
processing. SBA officials further noted that the CARES Act’s restriction
on using applicants’ tax information made it challenging to verify applicant
eligibility for COVID-19 EIDL. They said that they built in as much fraud
prevention and protection as they could within the time they had.

Moreover, the size of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL far exceeded any other
disaster relief program SBA had previously administered. For example,
an SBA official testified during a July 2020 congressional hearing that
since SBA was founded in 1953, SBA had approved a total of 2.2 million
disaster loans for $66.7 billion. 3 Amid the urgency to help adversely
affected small businesses and within the confines of the authorizing
legislation, SBA launched PPP and COVID-19 EIDL early in the
pandemic with limited upfront safeguards against fraud.

PPP. In 2020, the CARES Act and the Paycheck Protection Program and
Health Care Enhancement Act provided $659 billion for SBA-guaranteed
PPP loans. 4 As of August 8, 2020, when Round 1 of PPP closed, lenders
had approved 5.2 million PPP loans, totaling about $525 billion. To put
this figure in context, SBA’s largest single year in 7(a) lending volume
before PPP was about $25 billion, in fiscal year 2017.

As we reported in June 2020, SBA moved swiftly to implement PPP so
that lenders could begin making and disbursing loans as quickly as
possible. 5 SBA launched PPP 1 week after the CARES Act was signed
into law. To implement the program as quickly as possible, SBA
streamlined the application and review process, which largely rested on
borrower certifications. As set forth in the CARES Act, borrowers had to
certify in good faith that

1. current economic uncertainty made the loan request necessary to
   support the applicant’s ongoing operations, and

3U.S. House of Representatives, Small Business Committee, The Economic Injury

Disaster Loan Program: Status Update from the Administration, 116th Cong., 2d sess.,
July 1, 2020.
4CARES Act, Pub. L. No. 116-136, 134 Stat. 281 (2020); Paycheck Protection Program

and Health Care Enhancement Act, Pub. L. No. 116-139, 134 Stat. 620 (2020).

GAO, COVID-19: Opportunities to Improve Federal Response and Recovery Efforts,
5

GAO-20-625 (Washington, D.C.: June 25, 2020).




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2. funds would be used to retain workers and maintain payroll or make
   payments for other covered expenses.
SBA, consistent with the CARES Act, required minimal loan underwriting
from lenders—limited to actions such as (1) confirming receipt of
borrower certifications, (2) confirming receipt of information demonstrating
that the borrower had employees for whom the borrower paid salaries
and payroll taxes on or around February 15, 2020, (3) reviewing
supporting payroll documentation, and (4) following applicable Bank
Secrecy Act requirements, including a customer identification program. 6
This left the program susceptible to fraudulent applications. SBA officials
told us that this approach for PPP was intentionally developed with more
fraud and eligibility controls implemented post-origination (at the loan
forgiveness and review stages) rather than up front, and characterized it
as a model focused on speed. 7 The result of limited upfront safeguards
and the lenders’ rapid review of loan applications increased the risk of
fraud. In effect, a “pay and chase” approach, relying on fraud detection
after funds had been disbursed, was adopted for PPP.

The SBA OIG reported that SBA’s efforts to hurry capital to businesses
were at the expense of controls that could have reduced the likelihood of
ineligible or fraudulent businesses obtaining a PPP loan. Specifically, in
January 2021, the SBA OIG found that lenders approved more than




6According to SBA, in the Economic Aid Act, Congress agreed with SBA’s approach by

expanding the lender hold harmless provision found in 15 U.S.C. § 636m(h) to allow PPP
lenders to rely on any certification or documentation supplied by an applicant. Section 305
of the Economic Aid Act provides that the expanded hold harmless language shall be
effective as if included in the CARES Act and shall apply retroactively to any loan made
before the date of enactment of the Economic Aid Act.
7The post-origination loan review process developed by SBA and Treasury combined

automated screenings of all PPP loans made in 2020 and manual reviews of selected
loans to test for compliance with program requirements, which includes testing for
eligibility and fraud. SBA officials told us that SBA also applied machine learning to the
results of the automated screening process to focus loan review resources on the areas of
greatest risk of fraud or ineligibility. SBA used a contractor to conduct the automated and
manual loan reviews to test for compliance with program requirements and evaluate the
accuracy of PPP borrowers’ self-certifications. We discuss controls that SBA added in
2021 later in the appendix.




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$402 million in PPP loans to approximately 5,000 potentially ineligible
businesses that registered their businesses after February 15, 2020. 8

COVID-19 EIDL. As of October 2020, SBA had disbursed over
$373 billion in COVID-19 EIDL loans and advances, an amount which
exceeded all disaster loans made by SBA in all years combined since the
agency’s creation in 1953. In part to help small businesses quickly early
in the pandemic, the COVID-19 EIDL program, with its loans and
advances, was implemented with fewer safeguards than the traditional
EIDL program. For example, SBA reduced existing controls by removing
the rule of two reviewers for each loan application, setting high production
goals, approving loans in batches with minimal review, and not requiring
comments on all system flags of potential fraud.

A 2020 SBA OIG report found that in expediting the COVID-19 EIDL
process to make emergency capital available to struggling small
businesses, SBA “lowered the guardrails,” or relaxed internal controls. 9
This significantly increased the risk of fraud in the program. In May 2021,
the SBA OIG reported that as of January 31, 2021, SBA had referred
almost 850,000 COVID-19 EIDL applications to the OIG because of
identity theft complaints. 10 Of those referrals, SBA had disbursed
approximately 112,000 COVID-19 EIDL loans totaling $6.2 billion and
99,000 advances for $468 million. 11




8SBA OIG, Inspection of SBA’s Implementation of the Paycheck Protection Program, 21-

07 (Washington, D.C.: January 2021). To qualify for PPP, a business must have been in
operation since at least February 15, 2020.
9SBA OIG, Inspection of SBA’s Initial Disaster Assistance Response to the Coronavirus

Pandemic, 21-02 (Washington, D.C.: October 2020).
10SBA OIG, SBA’s Handling of Identity Theft in the Covid-19 Economic Injury Disaster

Loan Program, 21-15, (Washington, D.C.: May 2021). SBA officials told us that they have
continued to refer loans and advances involving identity theft to the SBA OIG. Specifically,
according to SBA, as of November 2022, it had flagged and was in the process of
referring approximately 195,250 loans for confirmed or suspected identity theft (for
approximately $10.2 billion disbursed) and approximately 155,565 advances for confirmed
or suspected identity theft (for approximately $792.8 million disbursed).
11According to SBA, as of November 2022, SBA has confirmed identity theft on
7,700 COVID-19 EIDL loans. The confirmation of identity theft is an administrative function
separate from a law enforcement investigation that prevents adverse action or harm to an
identity theft victim by disassociating the loan record from the victim’s identity. It includes
the issuance of a letter stating that the victim is not responsible for repayment of the debt
and release of collateral (if the loan is secured), among other actions.




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                                In administering COVID-19 EIDL, SBA experienced initial shortages of
                                loan officers, attorneys, and call center staff, which likely created
                                challenges to loan screening and fraud response. According to the SBA
                                OIG, by July 31, 2020, SBA’s Office of Disaster Assistance, which was
                                responsible for COVID-19 EIDL, had increased staff from 3,483 to 9,000
                                to address loan processing demands. SBA also used contractors to
                                expand its capacity to process and review applications. For example,
                                because SBA did not have the capacity to handle the number of COVID-
                                19 EIDL applications, it turned to a contractor for a system to provide
                                automated initial recommendations to approve or decline applications and
                                flag applications with issues for further review by SBA.

                                The environment in which SBA was operating as it initially implemented
                                PPP and COVID-19 EIDL had several factors that contributed to
                                heightened fraud risks. The Fraud Risk Framework highlights factors that
                                increase the risk of improper payments, including those that are the result
                                of fraudulent activity. These factors, which were present in PPP and
                                COVID-19 EIDL, include

                                •   whether the program is new to the agency;
                                •   the volume of payments made annually; and
                                •   recent major changes in program funding, authorities, practices, or
                                    procedures.
                                As outlined in the Fraud Risk Framework, effective fraud risk
                                management takes into consideration the environment, including legal
                                requirements. While legislative provisions limited SBA’s ability to
                                implement specific control activities, strategic fraud risk management
                                takes into account these factors when designing controls. As such, SBA
                                had opportunities to engage in strategic fraud risk management despite
                                the environment it was in as it implemented PPP and COVID-19 EIDL.

SBA’s Lack of a Dedicated       The first component of the Fraud Risk Framework calls for agencies to
Antifraud Entity before the     commit to combating fraud by creating an organizational culture and
Pandemic Hindered Its Initial   structure conducive to fraud risk management. Specifically, one of the
Ability to Manage Fraud Risks   component’s leading practices is for agencies to designate an entity to
in Pandemic Relief Programs     design and oversee fraud risk management activities. The antifraud
                                entity, among other things, serves as a central repository of knowledge on
                                fraud risks and controls, manages the fraud risk assessment process,
                                leads or assists with trainings and other fraud awareness activities, and
                                coordinates antifraud initiatives across programs.




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When the pandemic began, SBA did not have a dedicated antifraud entity
that it could leverage for fraud risk management in the pandemic relief
programs. In 2019, SBA had established the Fraud Risk Management
Council (Council) to oversee and coordinate agency-wide fraud risk
management. However, according to SBA officials, when the pandemic
began, the Council did not have the infrastructure to conduct agency-wide
fraud risk management in alignment with the Fraud Risk Framework’s
leading practices.

SBA had two other offices that were generally responsible for working
with program offices to identify and respond to potential risks, including
those related to fraud. The Office of Continuous Operations and Risk
Management is responsible for, among other things, agency-wide
recovery response for disasters and the evaluation and assessment of
SBA’s critical risks and nonfinancial internal controls. In addition,
according to an SBA official, when SBA implements a new program, the
Office of Internal Controls coordinates with the program office to plan
proper internal controls and ensure they are implemented. However, SBA
officials indicated neither of these offices served as SBA’s dedicated
antifraud entity.

The lack of a dedicated antifraud entity presented challenges and missed
opportunities for SBA as it worked to establish and implement programs
early in the pandemic. For example, SBA officials told us that neither the
Council, nor the Office of Continuous Operations and Risk Management,
nor the Office of Internal Controls were involved in the design or initial
implementation of program controls—including antifraud controls—for
PPP or COVID-19 EIDL. As a result, program offices responsible for PPP
and COVID-19 EIDL drew upon their own knowledge to develop controls,
without coordinated guidance and support.

Moreover, without a dedicated antifraud entity to provide agency-wide
leadership, not all SBA staff received ongoing training focused on fraud
risk management. As outlined in the Fraud Risk Framework, fraud
awareness initiatives, including training, can enable managers,
employees, and stakeholders to better detect potential fraud. Leading
practices include requiring all employees to attend training upon hiring
and on an ongoing basis thereafter. SBA officials told us that they have
held annual enterprise risk management training for managers and




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                              supervisors since 2018. 12 However, while the Fraud Risk Framework
                              acknowledges that agencies may use initiatives like enterprise risk
                              management efforts to assess their fraud risks, the Fraud Risk
                              Framework does not eliminate the separate and independent fraud risk
                              management requirements. Additionally, SBA officials said that the Office
                              of Disaster Assistance has conducted fraud awareness training for loan
                              officers and case managers since 2010. 13 However, agency-wide, there
                              was no required, ongoing fraud awareness training for all employees,
                              including employees managing PPP and COVID-19 EIDL programs
                              during the pandemic.

SBA Had Not Conducted         A key responsibility of a dedicated antifraud entity is to manage the fraud
Fraud Risk Assessments that   risk assessment process. The second component of the Fraud Risk
Could Have Informed           Framework directs agencies to plan regular fraud risk assessments and
Implementation of Pandemic    assess risks to determine a fraud risk profile. 14 As part of this effort,
Relief Programs               agencies should (1) plan regular fraud risk assessments that are tailored
                              to the program and (2) identify and assess risks to determine the
                              program’s fraud risk profile. The results of such assessments are then to
                              be used to design and implement a strategy with specific control activities
                              to mitigate assessed fraud risks.

                              Further, assessments can help program officials determine whether
                              certain controls are effectively designed and implemented to reduce the
                              likelihood or impact of a fraud risk to a tolerable level. A fraud risk
                              assessment for an existing program can be used as a starting point for a
                              revised or new fraud risk assessment for a modified or new program,
                              providing a baseline of likely risks that would need to be revisited given a
                              new emergency environment, including legislative changes and
                              restrictions.



                               Enterprise risk management is a forward-looking management approach that allows
                              12

                              agencies to assess threats and opportunities that could affect the achievement of their
                              goals.
                              13SBA officials also stated that a fraud team has functioned within the Office of Disaster
                              Assistance since before 2005, reviewing files suspected of fraud and referring matters to
                              the SBA OIG, among other things. This team was expanded during COVID-19 EIDL to
                              address needs and take on additional roles. However, this team did not perform the roles
                              of a dedicated antifraud entity, as described in the Fraud Risk Framework.
                              14As described in the Fraud Risk Framework, a fraud risk profile includes the analysis of
                              the types of internal and external fraud risks facing the program, their perceived likelihood
                              and impact, managers’ risk tolerance, and the prioritization of risks.




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Before the pandemic, SBA had taken steps to aid program offices in
assessing fraud risks. Specifically, it had developed a tool to assist
programs in completing fraud risk assessments. However, the Council did
not officially adopt the tool for agency-wide use until September 2021,
after most of the pandemic relief funds were distributed.

SBA had not conducted formal fraud risk assessments for its programs,
including 7(a) and traditional EIDL, in alignment with the Fraud Risk
Framework’s leading practices before the pandemic. SBA officials told us
that they considered fraud risks when designing PPP and COVID-19
EIDL and that they had “zero tolerance” for fraud. 15 Further, according to
SBA officials, they conducted what they characterized as informal fraud
risk assessments during the pandemic. For example, as we reported in
March 2021, SBA brought together subject matter experts from SBA and
Treasury, as well as contractors, to identify fraud risks and mitigating
controls for PPP. 16 However, SBA was not able to provide us with
documentation related to these assessments and their results.

Consequently, such informal assessments were limited in the extent to
which they could inform program officials who did not participate in the
initial effort to assess and mitigate PPP fraud risks and could not serve as
a basis for fraud risk management strategies. Further, it does not appear
that these informal assessments contained all of the key elements of the
fraud risk assessment process, as described in the Fraud Risk
Framework.

As a result, SBA could not leverage fraud risk assessments from its
existing programs as it sought to quickly implement the pandemic relief
programs. SBA officials told us that although they did not have formal
fraud risk assessments, they did informally consider fraud risks and
sought to mitigate them when administering PPP and COVID-19 EIDL.




15The Fraud Risk Framework does not indicate that the purpose of fraud risk management
is to have zero fraud. The Fraud Risk Framework calls on agencies to develop a fraud risk
tolerance that takes into account circumstances of individual programs and other
objectives beyond mitigation of fraud risks. For example, when responding to natural
disasters, managers of an assistance program may have a higher fraud risk tolerance,
such as “low” rather than “very low,” for making payments to potentially fraudulent
applicants if the applicants live in a severely damaged area.

 GAO, COVID-19: Sustained Federal Action Is Crucial as Pandemic Enters Its Second
16

Year, GAO-21-387 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 31, 2021).




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However, conducting a formal fraud risk assessment could have better
helped SBA prioritize risks and allocate resources early in the pandemic.

For example, although the programs had some key differences,
previously conducted assessments for the 7(a) and traditional EIDL
programs, including information on known fraud risks and effective
controls, could have informed the design of PPP and COVID-19 EIDL,
respectively. Such assessments could have been readily leveraged as
SBA officials considered how changes, such as the restriction on the use
of tax information, affected their prioritization of risks and the suitability of
existing fraud controls. Given the limited timeframes SBA had to
implement both PPP and COVID-19 EIDL, the presence of existing,
related fraud risk assessments could have allowed SBA to conduct new
assessments more quickly. Likewise, the existence of a standard and
widely understood tool for doing assessments could have enabled
program officials to conduct an assessment readily as PPP and COVID-
19 EIDL were being implemented.

As noted in the third component of the Fraud Risk Framework, managers
who effectively manage fraud risks develop and document an antifraud
strategy. This strategy, which is to be informed by the fraud risk profile,
should describe the program’s approach for addressing the prioritized
fraud risks identified during the fraud risk assessment. The antifraud
strategy, among other items, describes how the agency will (1) allocate
resources to respond to residual fraud risks; (2) prevent, detect, and
respond to fraud, as well as monitor risks; and (3) establish roles and
responsibilities for those involved in fraud risk management. Absent a
formal fraud risk assessment and resulting fraud risk profile, SBA did not
have assurances that it was identifying, assessing, and prioritizing risks
effectively. Likewise, without an antifraud strategy based on a fraud risk
profile, SBA was not positioned to ensure that it was strategically
addressing its most significant fraud risks.




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SBA Adapted Its Approach
During the Pandemic, but
Its Actions Were Reactive
and Not Timely and May
Not Have Been Fully
Effective
SBA Added Controls as Fraud   The fourth component of the Fraud Risk Framework calls on agencies to
Schemes Emerged, but Its      evaluate outcomes using a risk-based approach and adapt activities to
Actions Were Reactive and     improve fraud risk management. Managers are to monitor and evaluate
May Not Have Been Fully       the effectiveness of preventive activities, including fraud risk assessments
Effective                     and the antifraud strategy, as well as establish controls to detect fraud
                              and implement response efforts.

                              In the absence of formal fraud risk assessments and an antifraud
                              strategy, SBA responded to risks as they arose. SBA officials attributed
                              this approach to pandemic-related resource constraints and pressure to
                              distribute funds quickly.

                              PPP. SBA made changes from Round 1 to Round 2 of PPP to address
                              some fraud risks. In Round 1, SBA rules allowed lenders to rely on
                              borrower self-attestation to determine borrower eligibility and use of loan
                              proceeds. SBA relied on lenders with delegated authority under the
                              CARES Act to make and approve covered loans, and SBA did not
                              conduct any review of loan or borrower information beyond looking for
                              duplicate applications before issuing an SBA loan number, thus
                              guaranteeing the loan. 17

                              To prevent potential fraud in PPP and consistent with our June 2020
                              recommendation, SBA added certain upfront controls for Round 2. For
                              example, in Round 2, which began in January 2021, SBA used an
                              automated screening system to validate some applicant data and



                              17Although lenders were not required to conduct detailed underwriting of PPP applications,

                              they had to apply relevant Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) program requirements. The BSA, as
                              revised, imposes a number of reporting and recordkeeping obligations on covered
                              financial institutions in an effort to prevent money laundering and the financing of
                              terrorism, including, among other things, verifying the identity of customers, conducting
                              ongoing customer due diligence, and filing suspicious activity reports with Treasury’s
                              Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.




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eligibility responses prior to loan approval. 18 As discussed in the Fraud
Risk Framework, automated controls tend to be more reliable than
manual controls (such as document reviews) because they are less
susceptible to human error.

Although SBA added upfront controls in Round 2, the controls may not
have been as effective as they could have been at preventing some types
of fraud. Specifically, in January 2022, the PRAC reported that SBA’s
additional upfront controls to screen all Round 2 loans likely would not
have detected some of the PPP fraud found in 2020 criminal cases. 19
Specifically, the controls would not have been effective in preventing
fraudulent activities such as ones related to falsified documentation and
certifications. 20 PRAC reported that a key underlying factor contributing to
the control gaps in SBA’s antifraud controls was the lack of a formal fraud
risk assessment during the design and implementation of the 2021
controls.

COVID-19 EIDL. Over the course of its COVID-19 response, SBA made
some changes to enhance its application review process and identify
potential fraud. These changes applied to both the automated validation
system and the manual review process.

Validating application inputs. SBA made several changes to validate
applicant information. For example, in May 2020, SBA

•    required applicants to check each eligibility criterion before being able
     to proceed,


18SBA rolled out a new PPP loan origination platform in 2021, embedding 89 digital
application checks and notifying lenders in real time of data errors or suspect information.
Additionally, SBA began screening all loans in the aggregate to identify and analyze
relationships across loans, borrowers, and lenders to identify potentially suspicious
relationships and activities.
19PRAC, Small Business Administration Paycheck Protection Program Phase III Fraud

Controls (Jan. 21, 2022).

 SBA officials told us that based on their review of the PRAC report, they conducted their
20

own analysis of the criminal cases included in the PRAC’s analysis. According to SBA’s
analysis, the controls put in place in 2021 would have likely identified 88 percent of cases.
However, those controls would likely not have identified potentially fraudulent applicants
associated with 12 percent of the cases. According to SBA, effective lender due diligence
actions could have also played a role in preventing loans from being disbursed for the
cases that would have circumvented SBA’s controls.




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•    added validation of bank account routing numbers, and
•    added a function to identify mismatches between ZIP codes and
     states.
In August 2020, SBA began to revalidate bank account information
whenever the loan applicant changed this information.

Changing the application review process. The SBA OIG found that
until August 2020, applications that did not contain certain fraud alerts
flagged by the automated validation system were approved by team
leaders in batches and with little to no additional review by the team
leaders. 21 After August 2020, SBA stopped approving loans in batches
and began requiring staff to review all applications prior to approval and
to mitigate all system alerts.

Validating tax information. SBA made changes to the loan application
review process in response to new legislation. SBA officials told us the
CARES Act’s restriction on obtaining applicants’ tax returns presented a
challenge for validating applications. The Consolidated Appropriations
Act, 2021, enacted on December 27, 2020, removed this restriction. 22
SBA officials told us that beginning in April 2021, the agency started
incorporating tax information as part of its validation process for loan
applications to confirm that businesses existed on or before January 31,
2020, and to verify business revenue. 23 Between April 2021 and July
2022, SBA verified tax information for roughly 1.9 million applications with
the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), which represents 72 percent of total




 SBA OIG, Inspection of Small Business Administration’s Initial Disaster Assistance
21

Response to the Coronavirus Pandemic, 21-02 (Washington, D.C.: October 2020). The
SBA OIG found that SBA approved batches of 25 to 50 COVID-19 EIDL loans with little or
no vetting of individual loan information, increasing fraud risk.

 Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021, Pub. L. No. 116-260, div. M and N, 134 Stat.
22

1182 (2020).
23SBA required COVID-19 EIDL applicants to submit 2019 federal income tax returns. It

also required applicants to submit 2020 federal income tax returns, if available. If a
business began operations in January 2020 and had not yet filed federal income taxes,
SBA required applicants to submit business financial statements, including a balance
sheet and profit-and-loss statement.




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applications and 99 percent of approved applications during this time
period. 24

Additionally, SBA reported improvements in loan processing beginning in
September 2021. Specifically, SBA stated that application processing
capacity increased from an average of 2,000 to more than
37,000 applications per day. SBA attributed the increased productivity in
part to its ability to obtain tax transcript data directly from IRS. SBA
officials said that tax transcripts provided directly to SBA were critical in
combatting fraud because transcripts helped verify the existence of
legitimate businesses.

In response to SBA’s experience with PPP and COVID-19 EIDL, SBA
officials told us they designed the agency’s later pandemic relief
programs with an emphasis on pre-award controls. SBA accepted
Restaurant Revitalization Fund (RRF) and Shuttered Venue Operators
Grant (SVOG) applications in 2021.

RRF. To verify an applicant’s identity and eligibility, SBA designed the
RRF application process to include a series of automated and manual
reviews. The RRF application portal included a variety of automated
controls to verify applicants’ self-reported information against third-party
information. For example, automated controls verified applicants’ bank
account information, taxpayer identification numbers and tax returns
(against IRS information), and addresses (against U.S. Postal Service
address data). 25 SBA staff manually reviewed applications that were
flagged by the automated controls and applications it deemed to be
higher risk, such as those for larger awards. Before payment, applications
were routed through SBA’s payment system, which included additional

24Applications include new applications, modifications, reconsiderations, and appeals. SBA
officials told us that incomplete and declined COVID-19 EIDL applications did not advance
to the stage where IRS verification was requested. SBA approved 1 percent of
applications without obtaining an IRS tax transcript because these files could be approved
without requesting transcripts, such as applications for nonprofit entities that are exempt
from filing or entities that were not established until 2020 (and therefore did not have a
2019 tax transcript).
25Applicants had to provide the following supporting documents: (1) IRS Form 4506-T;
(2) documentation of gross receipts and eligible expenses including business tax returns
(IRS Form 1120 or IRS 1120-S); (3) IRS Forms 1040 Schedule C or Schedule F;
(4) partnership’s IRS Form 1065 (including K-1s); and (5) bank statements; externally or
internally prepared financial statements such as income statements or profit and loss
statements; and point-of-sale report(s), including IRS Form 1099-K.




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Management Efforts Implementing the
Pandemic Relief Programs




checks. The payment system compared RRF applicants with the
Treasury’s sanctions and Do Not Pay service. 26 The system also
performed public records searches for inactive businesses, criminal
offenses, and bankruptcies.

SVOG. To verify business identities, SBA required SVOG applicants to
register with business data and contracting sites—Dun & Bradstreet and
the System for Award Management (SAM.gov). 27 Applicants were also
required to upload applicable entity formation documents, such as articles
of incorporation or tax-exempt certificates. Before disbursing an award,
the SVOG applicant review team was also to check that an applicant was
not listed on Treasury’s Do Not Pay service. Application reviewers were
to verify that applicants met general eligibility requirements. For example,
reviewers were to verify bankruptcy status and criminal history using
Lexis-Nexis.

SBA adapted its approach to include more upfront controls throughout the
pandemic, but its approach was not universal or consistent. For example,
despite its experience with COVID-19 EIDL, SBA did not universally verify
RRF and SVOG tax information with IRS before disbursing awards even
though it had originally planned to do so. SBA officials told us that IRS
could not handle the volume of verifications SBA requested for RRF
applicants and consequently some awards did not go through this step.
According to SBA, challenges and extended time frames associated with
interagency coordination resulted in SBA removing automatic reviews of
applicant tax information against IRS data for low-risk SVOG funding
requests with proposed grant awards below a certain dollar threshold. As
an alternative, SBA verified financial information against additional
documentation.

Further, SBA did not fully leverage fraud-related information across the
pandemic relief programs to help identify applicants trying to defraud
multiple programs. For example, we found that PPP and RRF programs
disbursed almost $11.5 million to an applicant that was denied COVID-19

 Treasury’s Do Not Pay service is an analytics tool that helps federal agencies detect and
26

prevent improper payments made to vendors, grantees, loan recipients, and beneficiaries.
Agencies can use the service to check multiple data sources to make payment eligibility
decisions.
27Dun & Bradstreet (a business data analytics firm) issues and verifies a DUNS number,
which is a unique nine-digit identifier assigned to a business. Businesses use SAM.gov (a
federal website) to register to do business with the U.S. government.




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                                 Management Efforts Implementing the
                                 Pandemic Relief Programs




                                 EIDL. This individual applied using fictitious business entities, and all of
                                 the applications were submitted online from the individual’s computer.
                                 This individual pled guilty to fraud-related charges in September 2022. 28
                                 SBA officials indicated they did not cross-check PPP or RRF recipients
                                 with COVID-19 EIDL recipients because an applicant may qualify for one
                                 program and not another due to eligibility differences. In addition, SBA
                                 officials told us that they did not have mechanisms in place to cross-
                                 check PPP and COVID-19 EIDL application information. SBA had
                                 mechanisms to cross-check some identifiers for RRF recipients—such as
                                 addresses and emails—with cases of confirmed, rather than suspected,
                                 COVID-19 EIDL fraud. Nevertheless, a denial in one program may be due
                                 to suspected fraud, and cross-checking program data can help identify
                                 questionable applications.

SBA Conducted Fraud Risk         SBA officials acknowledged to us that their fraud risk management
Assessments and Designated       efforts—specifically as they relate to implementing the Fraud Risk
an Antifraud Entity After Most   Framework’s leading practices—are in the developmental phase. While
Pandemic Relief Funds Were       SBA had antifraud controls in place and adapted those controls for its four
Distributed                      pandemic relief programs, SBA’s key fraud risk management activities—
                                 such as conducting fraud risk assessments and designating an antifraud
                                 entity—occurred after some pandemic relief programs stopped accepting
                                 applications and most of the program funds were distributed (see fig. 16).
                                 They nevertheless represent important steps in SBA’s efforts to mature its
                                 fraud risk management.




                                  Department of Justice, Former Oregon Dentist Pleads Guilty to Stealing Nearly
                                 28

                                 $11.5 million in Covid-Relief Program Funds (Portland, Or.: Sept. 13, 2022). Accessed
                                 Sept. 15, 2022, at https://www.justice.gov/usao-or/pr/former-oregon-dentist-pleads-guilty-
                                 stealing-nearly-115-million-covid-relief-program.




                                 Page 123                                                      GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
                                       Appendix II: Overview of SBA’s Fraud Risk
                                       Management Efforts Implementing the
                                       Pandemic Relief Programs




Figure 16: The Small Business Administration’s (SBA) Key Fraud Risk Management Activities Occurred after Most Program
Funds Were Distributed




                                       Note: SBA had controls in the pandemic relief programs prior to conducting a formal fraud risk
                                       assessment. Additional legislation passed during this period includes the Paycheck Protection
                                       Program Flexibility Act of 2020. Enacted on June 5, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program
                                       Flexibility Act of 2020 amended the Small Business Act to require a minimum maturity of 5 years for
                                       PPP loans. Pub. L. No. 116-142, § 2, 134 Stat. 641 (2020) (codified as amended at 15 U.S.C.
                                       § 636(a)(36)(K)). The application period for PPP initially ended on June 30, 2020. On July 4, 2020,
                                       legislation was enacted that extended the application period until August 8, 2020. Pub. L. No. 116-
                                       147, 134 Stat. 660 (2020).
                                       a
                                        The PPP Extension Act of 2021 extended the application period from March 31, 2021, to May 31,
                                       2021, and allowed SBA until June 30, 2021, to process those applications. On May 4, 2021, the PPP




                                       Page 124                                                             GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
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Management Efforts Implementing the
Pandemic Relief Programs




general fund was exhausted and closed to new applications, except those processed by a community
financial institution lender.
b
 After Congress deemed COVID-19 a disaster, SBA began to declare states and territories eligible for
COVID-19 EIDL loans beginning on March 16, 2020. The declarations allowed SBA to begin using
about $1.1 billion of its existing disaster loan credit subsidy to make COVID-19 EIDL loans before the
CARES Act was enacted.
c
  The distributed amount for COVID-19 EIDL is higher than the net appropriated funding of
$75.2 billion due to COVID-19 EIDL loan credit subsidy. Loan credit subsidy covers the government’s
cost of extending or guaranteeing credit and represents the estimated long-term cost of providing
loans and takes into account expected future performance, including loan repayments, prepayments,
and defaults. The loan credit subsidy amount was about one-seventh of the cost of each disaster loan
in fiscal year 2020 and one-eleventh in fiscal year 2021.
d
 The portal for SVOG opened on April 8, 2021, but shut down the same day because of a software
problem, reopening on April 26, 2021.


SBA conducted formal fraud risk assessments for its pandemic relief
programs in fall 2021, after most funds had been distributed. The Fraud
Risk Framework indicates that fraud risk assessments are most helpful in
developing preventive fraud controls to avoid costly and inefficient “pay-
and-chase” activities. Assessing fraud risks is an iterative process. Had
SBA conducted initial fraud risk assessments before or even shortly after
launching the programs, it could have targeted and refined its controls to
further minimize risks and allocated resources to the most pressing fraud
risks. It also could have updated the fraud risk assessments as new risks
were identified. The timing of the assessments limited their usefulness for
fraud prevention.

Furthermore, SBA did not use the assessments to inform post-award
fraud detection efforts. For example, we found in October 2022 that
SVOG post-award draft monitoring procedures did not link to the risks
SBA identified in its fraud risk assessments. 29 Consequently, we
recommended that SVOG post-award monitoring procedures address the
risks the agency identified. According to SBA, it finalized the SVOG fraud
risks assessment in March 2023, which directly addresses the risks
identified in the post-award monitoring procedures. This recommendation
will remain open until SBA provides documentation of updated post-
award monitoring procedures. Similarly, when SBA developed a data
analytics approach to help identify potential fraud in COVID-19 EIDL in
response to a GAO recommendation, SBA did not link the data analytics
to the risks identified in its fraud risk assessment.


29GAO, COVID Relief: SBA Could Improve Communications and Fraud Risk Monitoring for
Its Arts and Entertainment Venues Grant Program, GAO-23-105199 (Washington, D.C.:
Oct. 11, 2022).




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Management Efforts Implementing the
Pandemic Relief Programs




SBA formed the Fraud Risk Management Board (the Board) in February
2022 and designated it as the agency’s dedicated antifraud entity. 30
According to SBA documentation, the Board—composed of agency
executives across SBA—serves primarily in a guidance and oversight role
and is to meet at least quarterly. The Board is to be supported by at least
one program manager. SBA officials said there is an expectation that
program offices will work collaboratively with the Board. Program offices
remain responsible for design and implementation of fraud risk
management activities for their programs.

In June 2022, SBA issued a Fraud Risk Management Action Plan that
identifies the Board’s priorities in its role as the dedicated antifraud entity.
The priorities listed for fiscal year 2022 include (1) retaining a program
manager; (2) using data analytics to assess for indicators of fraud in PPP
and COVID-19 EIDL; and (3) developing and offering antifraud training. In
July 2022, SBA officials told us the Board had designated an interim
program manager and approved a cross-disciplinary advisory team with a
range of subject matter expertise including data analytics, fraud litigation,
occupational fraud, and training. SBA also offered fraud prevention
training to some of its employees in 2022.

In September 2022, the Board approved SBA’s fraud risk management
strategic plan, which it described as a forward-leaning, multi-year plan
designed to advance the maturity of SBA’s enterprise-wide fraud risk
management capabilities. The plan seeks to encompass leading practices
from GAO’s Fraud Risk Framework along with lessons learned from PPP
and COVID-19 EIDL implementation. Among the plan’s strategic goals is
fraud risk monitoring, which includes planned actions for developing a
robust data analytics program that focuses on identification of
transactional anomalies that are further investigated and communicated.




 Once the SBA formed the Fraud Risk Management Board, the Fraud Risk Management
30

Council was disbanded.




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Appendix III: Prior GAO Recommendations
             Appendix III: Prior GAO Recommendations to
             Address Fraud Risks and SBA Actions



to Address Fraud Risks and SBA Actions

             In prior reports, we made multiple recommendations to improve fraud risk
             management in the Small Business Administration’s (SBA) pandemic
             relief programs.

             Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). We made four recommendations
             related to oversight of and fraud in PPP from June 2020 to March 2021.
             As of March 2023, SBA implemented three of them.

             •   In June 2020, we recommended that SBA develop and implement
                 plans to identify and respond to risks in PPP, including fraud risks. 1 At
                 that time, SBA neither agreed nor disagreed with this
                 recommendation. Since then, SBA has developed a Master Review
                 Plan that included an approach to use an automated rules-based tool
                 to flag loans with attributes of ineligibility, fraud, or abuse, and then
                 manually review them. As such, we have closed this recommendation
                 as implemented.
             •   In November 2020, we recommended that SBA expeditiously estimate
                 improper payments—including improper payments resulting from
                 fraudulent activity—and report estimates and error rates for PPP. 2 At
                 that time, SBA neither agreed nor disagreed with this
                 recommendation. However, as part of its Fiscal Year 2022 Agency
                 Financial Report, SBA reported an improper payment rate of
                 4.2 percent (or $29 billion). As such, we have closed this
                 recommendation as implemented.
             •   In March 2021, we recommended that SBA
                 1. conduct a fraud risk assessment for PPP and
                 2. develop a strategy to address fraud risks on a continuous basis. 3
             SBA agreed with both recommendations. Since then, SBA has
             implemented the first recommendation, and we have closed it.


             GAO, COVID-19: Opportunities to Improve Federal Response and Recovery Efforts,
             1

             GAO-20-625 (Washington, D.C.: June 25, 2020).
             2GAO, COVID-19: Urgent Actions Needed to Better Ensure and Effective Federal
             Response, GAO-21-191 (Washington, D.C.: November 30, 2020). An improper payment is
             defined as any payment that should not have been made or that was made in an incorrect
             amount (including overpayments and underpayments) under statutory, contractual,
             administrative, or other legally applicable requirements. It includes, but is not limited to,
             any payment to an ineligible recipient. See 31 U.S.C. § 3351(4). While improper payments
             may be the results of errors, they may also be the result of fraudulent activities.

             GAO, COVID-19: Sustained Federal Action Is Crucial as Pandemic Enters Its Second
             3

             Year, GAO-21-387 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 31, 2021).




             Page 127                                                       GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Appendix III: Prior GAO Recommendations to
Address Fraud Risks and SBA Actions




Specifically, in December 2021, SBA provided a fraud risk assessment for
the program that had been prepared by its contractor. This assessment
adhered to many but not all fraud risk management leading practices. For
example, the assessment documented known and emerging fraud risks;
identified existing prevention, detection, and response activities; and
determined gaps within fraud risk management to enhance mitigation of
fraud risks. However, the assessment did not include a fraud risk
tolerance for the program. In April 2022, SBA established a fraud risk
tolerance for PPP that identified potential risks that exceeded SBA’s
willingness to tolerate them. SBA identified mitigating activities to
minimize those risks that exceeded SBA’s tolerance.

Regarding the second recommendation, although SBA has created a
fraud risk management action plan and other review and oversight plans
for PPP, none of these documents individually or collectively fully align
with the Fraud Risk Framework. Further, an antifraud strategy should
clearly communicate to employees and other relevant stakeholders SBA’s
approach for managing fraud risks in the program and link those antifraud
efforts to other risk management activities. To date, SBA has not fully
articulated a strategic approach to managing fraud risks in PPP—through
detection and response—on a continuous basis. Although SBA is not
issuing new PPP loans, there remains a risk of fraud in the program,
which the strategy should seek to manage through detection and
response. As of March 2023, this recommendation remains open.

COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan (COVID-19 EIDL) Program.
We made four recommendations related to fraud risk management in
COVID-19 EIDL in January and March 2021. As of March 2023, SBA has
implemented three of them.

•   In January 2021, we recommended that SBA develop and implement
    portfolio-level data analytics across COVID-19 EIDL as a means to
    detect potentially ineligible and fraudulent applications. 4 At the time of
    our report, SBA neither agreed nor disagreed with this
    recommendation. In June 2022, SBA officials provided us with a
    demonstration of a COVID-19 EIDL data analytics and loan anomaly
    detection project that the agency had initiated. In September 2022,
    they provided additional information, including sample reports, on the


4GAO, COVID-19: Critical Vaccine Distribution, Supply Chain, Program Integrity, and
Other Challenges Require Focused Federal Attention, GAO-21-265 (Washington, D.C.:
Jan. 28, 2021).




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Appendix III: Prior GAO Recommendations to
Address Fraud Risks and SBA Actions




    project. We have therefore closed this recommendation as
    implemented.
•   In March 2021, we recommended that SBA
    1. conduct a fraud risk assessment for COVID-19 EIDL,
    2. develop a strategy to address fraud risks on a continuous basis,
       and
    3. implement a comprehensive oversight plan to identify and respond
       to risks, including fraud risks. 5
SBA agreed with these three recommendations. To address the first two
recommendations, SBA took the same actions as it did to address similar
PPP recommendations involving a fraud risk assessment and fraud risk
management strategy. We have closed the fraud risk assessment
recommendation as implemented. The fraud risk management strategy
recommendation remains open as of March 2023. To address the third
recommendation, in August 2022, SBA provided an updated oversight
plan for the COVID-19 EIDL program. The plan described controls SBA
had or planned to implement to identify and address fraud risks in the
COVID-19 EIDL program, including fraud reviews SBA indicated it had
conducted on a sample of disbursed COVID-19 EIDL loans. In February
2023, SBA provided additional documentation on certain controls, such
as manual reviews of delinquent loans, to address fraud risks in the
program. We have closed this recommendation as implemented.

Restaurant Revitalization Fund (RRF). We made three
recommendations related to fraud risk management in our July 2022
report on RRF. As of March 2023, these recommendations have not yet
been implemented. Specifically, we recommended that SBA

    1. develop and implement data analytics across RRF awards as a
       means to detect potentially fraudulent award recipients;
    2. develop, document, and implement procedures to use
       enforcement data on suspected fraud in other SBA programs,
       such as PPP, to identify potential fraud in RRF recipients; and
    3. develop and implement a plan to respond to potentially fraudulent
       and ineligible RRF awards in a prompt and consistent manner. 6

GAO-21-387.
5


6GAO, Restaurant Revitalization Fund: Opportunities Exist to Improve Oversight,

GAO-22-105442 (Washington, D.C.: July 14, 2022).




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Appendix III: Prior GAO Recommendations to
Address Fraud Risks and SBA Actions




SBA partially agreed with our recommendation to use data analytics to
identify potentially fraudulent RRF recipients and disagreed with our
remaining two recommendations. We continue to believe that
implementing these recommendations would enhance fraud risk
management in RRF.

Shuttered Venue Operators Grant (SVOG). We made one
recommendation related to SVOG fraud risk management in our October
2022 report, which has not yet been implemented. We recommended that
post-award monitoring procedures for SVOG specifically address the
risks the agency has assessed, including fraud risks, and clearly link them
to monitoring activities. 7 As part of this effort, we explained that SBA
should document its tolerance for the risks it has identified. SBA partially
agreed with this recommendation. According to SBA, it finalized the
SVOG fraud risks assessment in March 2023, which directly addresses
the risks identified in the post-award monitoring procedures as well as risk
tolerance. This recommendation will remain open until SBA provides
documentation of updated post-award monitoring procedures.




7GAO, COVID Relief: SBA Could Improve Communications and Fraud Risk Monitoring for
Its Arts and Entertainment Venues Grant Program, GAO-23-105199 (Washington, D.C.:
Oct. 11, 2022).




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Appendix IV: Regression Analysis
              Appendix IV: Regression Analysis




              To analyze lending activity for Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans
              issued to borrowers charged by the Department of Justice (DOJ), we
              conducted generalized linear regressions using logistic modeling. We
              conducted the regressions using PPP data to explore associations
              between loan and lender characteristics and select fraud indicators, and
              identified incidents of fraud and alleged fraud charged by DOJ, while
              controlling for other factors. 1 Such a model allowed us to test the
              association between incidents of fraud charged by DOJ and selected
              business-, loan-, and lender-level characteristics, and fraud indicators,
              such as whether or not the recipient reported inflated employee counts,
              while holding constant other factors, such as lender type and business
              type.

              We limited our analysis to PPP loans that were approved and funded.
              This was a universe of approximately 12,500,000 applications and
              approximately 11,464,000 approved and funded loans. The amount of
              characteristics with complete data were limited to a small set of variables.
              Of these, we used subject matter expertise from prior GAO work on fraud
              to identify potential control variables and their association with outcomes.
              In particular, we used several fraud indicators, which were developed and
              calculated by GAO, while also controlling for characteristics of the loan,
              the applying business, and the lender. See appendix I for more
              information on the indicators of fraud. For the purposes of our analysis we
              created composite or recoded variables as identified in table 5 and
              included the variables as shown in table 6.




              1Typically, a generalized linear regression model is appropriate when the model

              assumption of normality is not appropriate, as is the case with a binary (e.g., yes/no)
              outcome for logistic regressions.




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                                                        Appendix IV: Regression Analysis




Table 5: Created Variables Used in the Regression Analysis of the Small Business Administration (SBA) Paycheck Protection
Program Loans, Years 2020-2021

GAO category                                  Original value(s)                            Recoded value(s)
Business ownership type                       1 = 501(c) Nonprofit (except 3, 6, 19)       •   Self-employed business (17, 19, 20, 21)
                                              2 = 501(c)19 Nonprofit Veteran               •   Non self-employed business (all else)
                                              3 = 501(c)3 Nonprofit
                                              4 = 501(c)6 Nonprofit Membership
                                              5 = Cooperative
                                              6 = Corporation
                                              7 = Employee Stock Ownership Plan
                                              8 = Housing Co-op
                                              9 = Independent Contractors
                                              10 = Joint Venture
                                              11 = Limited Liability Company (LLC)
                                              12 = Limited Liability Partnership
                                              13 = Nonprofit Childcare Center
                                              14 = Nonprofit Organization
                                              15 = Partnership
                                              16 = Professional Association
                                              17 = Qualified Joint-Venture
                                              18 = Rollover as Business Start-Ups
                                              19 = Self-Employed Individuals
                                              20 = Single Member LLC
                                              21 = Sole Proprietorship
                                              22 = Subchapter S Corporation
                                              23 = Tenant in Common
                                              24 = Tribal Concerns
                                              25 = Trust
Asset size                                    Numeric dollar amount of lender assets       •   Unknown
                                                                                           •   Small (less than $1 billion)
                                                                                           •   Medium ($1 billion to less than $10 billion)
                                                                                           •   Large ($10 billion or greater)
Loan size                                     Numeric dollar amount of loan                •   Small (less than or equal to $350,000)
                                                                                           •   Medium (greater than $350,000 to $2 million)
                                                                                           •   Large (greater than $2 million)
Source: GAO analysis of SBA data. | GAO-23-105331




                                                        Page 132                                                GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
Appendix IV: Regression Analysis




Table 6: Variables Included in GAO Regression Models Using the Small Business
Administration (SBA) Paycheck Protection Program Loans, Years 2020-2021

Control—                                      Outcome—                           Model
independent variables                         dependent variables                specification
Loan characteristics: loan size
Lender characteristics: lender
type (lender/nonbank lender),
asset size
                                Whether or not a loan was
Business characteristics:       associated with a Department                     Logistic
business ownership type, locale of Justice (DOJ) case as of                      Regression
(urban/rural)                   December 31, 2021 (yes/no)
Fraud indicators: did not pay
employees, overstated payroll
expenses, non-existent
businesses
Source: GAO analysis of DOJ information and SBA data. | GAO-23-105331



To account for the presence of multiple correlated fraud indicators, a
generalized linear model was run using a penalized logistic regression to
determine an optimal combination of characteristics and fraud indicators.
In particular, we used a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator—
known as LASSO—regularization model, which is a specific type of
penalized logistic regression model. Regularization methods are useful
for assessing which variables are most important to the model when
collinearity exists among control variables, or the number of potential
control variables is large. In this case there is strong collinearity among
the fraud indicators. It is important to also note that such methods can be
conservative in nature, which means there is a higher chance of not
detecting an association when one exists. Such a model allowed us to
identify an optimal set of factors significantly associated with the outcome
and which factors we should exclude.

All regression models are subject to limitations. For this model, we
encountered the following limitations:

•     The outcome we analyzed was created using statistical software to
      match fraud cases to the loan-level data. However this outcome is a
      subset of the population of fraudulent loans, and associations cannot
      be generalized to the population of fraudulent loans. Furthermore, the
      outcome is not dichotomous since the inability to associate a loan with
      a DOJ case does not imply that the loan is not fraudulent but rather
      that it is unknown whether the loan is fraudulent or not.




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Appendix IV: Regression Analysis




•   Using this matching process, we were able to match 1,197 loan
    applications. Because we limited our analysis to approved and funded
    loans, only 944 matched loans remained out of the 11,464,173 funded
    loans, which represents an extremely small percentage
    (0.008 percent) of the total.
•   Data analyzed for these regression analyses were by loan rather than
    by lender, with limited information about lender characteristics.
    Additionally, many loan- and lender-level characteristics had high
    rates of missing values, which made them unsuitable for use in our
    analyses. Consequently, we are not able to describe the association
    between our independent variables and a lender’s association with
    loans in DOJ cases, while controlling for other characteristics.
•   Results of our analyses are associational and do not imply a causal
    relationship because, for example, the data are observational in
    nature and were not gathered by a randomized controlled trial where
    loan applications would be randomized to lenders with certain
    characteristics. Additionally, we do not imply that the set of control
    variables explains the variation of fraud in loans or predict whether or
    not a loan is fraudulent.
•   It is likely that variables that may be related to loan and lender
    characteristics and fraud cases are not available in the data. As an
    example, in this context, it could be that an applicant’s annual income
    adjusted for family size could be associated with the likelihood of a
    fraud case.
•   Additionally, all data are subject to non-sampling error. Non-sampling
    error could occur for many reasons, such as inability to obtain
    complete information for all loan applications, inability or unwillingness
    of applicants to provide correct information, mistakes by applicants,
    and errors made in the collection or processing of data (such as data
    quality checks).
A logistic regression model provides an estimated odds ratio of an event
occurring, such as whether a lender or loan characteristic is associated
with higher or lower odds of an identified fraud conviction, holding other
factors constant.

For the estimated odds ratio, a value greater than one indicates a higher
or positive association, and a value less than one indicates lower or
negative association, when the factor is present. For example, an
estimated odds ratio less than one indicates lower odds of an identified
fraud conviction when a factor is present.




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Appendix IV: Regression Analysis




Given the limitations of our data and models, we present a general
summary of associations by providing the direction, rather than estimated
odds of an identified fraudulent loan case, as shown in table 7. “Increase”
means that a particular variable was significantly associated with an
increase in the odds of identified fraud case at the p-value < 0.05 level;
“decrease” indicates a decrease in the odds, while holding all other
variables in the model constant. A blank “—” indicates the variable is not
significantly associated with identified fraud at the p-value < 0.05 level.
For categorical variables, we provided the comparison (reference)
characteristic in brackets. For example, the results should be interpreted
to show loans for sole proprietor businesses are more likely to be
identified in a fraud case, relative to businesses that are not sole
proprietorships, holding other factors constant, because the association is
significantly positive.

Table 7: Associations of Logistic Regression Model Variables Based on the Small
Business Administration’s (SBA) Paycheck Protection Program Loans, Years 2020-
2021

                                         Effect: groups compared
 Variable                                in odds ratio estimate                                 Association
 Asset size of lender                    Medium vs. large                                       Increase
                                         Small vs. large                                        —a
 Business ownership type                 Self-employed vs. not self-employed                    Increase
 Overstated payroll                      Yes vs. no                                             Increase
 Unpaid employees                        Yes vs. no                                             —
 Non-existent businesses                 Yes vs. no                                             Increase
 Lender type                             Nonbank lender vs. lender                              Increase
 Size of business loan                   Medium vs. large                                       —
                                         Small vs. large                                        Decrease
 Locale                                  Urban vs. rural                                        Increase
Source: GAO analysis of Department of Justice information and SBA data. | GAO-23-105331
a
 A blank “—” indicates the variable is not significantly associated with identified fraud at the p-value <
0.05 level.




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Appendix V: Comments from the Small
             Appendix V: Comments from the Small
             Business Administration



Business Administration




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Appendix V: Comments from the Small
Business Administration




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Appendix V: Comments from the Small
Business Administration




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Appendix V: Comments from the Small
Business Administration




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Appendix V: Comments from the Small
Business Administration




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Appendix V: Comments from the Small
Business Administration




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Appendix V: Comments from the Small
Business Administration




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Business Administration




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Appendix V: Comments from the Small
Business Administration




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Appendix VI: GAO Contact and Staff
                  Appendix VI: GAO Contact and Staff
                  Acknowledgments



Acknowledgments

                  Johana Ayers at (202) 512-6722 or ayersj@gao.gov
GAO Contact
                  In addition to the contact named above, Tonita Gillich (Assistant Director),
Staff             Philip Reiff (Assistant Director), Irina Carnevale (Analyst-in-Charge),
Acknowledgments   James Ashley, Priyanka Sethi Bansal, Miranda Berry, Mariana Calderón,
                  Leia Dickerson, Ranya Elias, Colin Fallon, Meredith Graves, Marshall
                  Hamlett, Kristy Hammon, Jacob Harwas, Davis Judson, Kailas Menon,
                  Maria McMullen, Brenda Mittelbuscher, Lisa Moore, Daniel Newman,
                  Stephanie Palmer, Julia Robertson, Paige Smith, Sabrina Streagle,
                  Frances Tirado, Ariel Vega, and Monique Williams made key
                  contributions to this report.




                  Page 145                                            GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
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             Page 146                                          GAO-23-105331 COVID Relief
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