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Federal Reserve Banks, Small Business Credit Survey: 2021 Report on Nonemployer Firms (2021)

Summary

Small Business Credit Survey 2021 Report on Nonemployer Firms from the Federal Reserve Banks, based on the 2020 survey of businesses with no employees other than their owners. The report team was Emily Wavering Corcoran, Lucas Misera and Ann Marie Wiersch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Its sections cover owner and firm characteristics, revenue and financial condition, pandemic-related emergency funding, PPP applications and outcomes, PPP nonapplicants, debt and financing. The key statistics table reports that 23.9% of nonemployer firms applied for financing, 59.3% had outstanding debt, 59.9% received at least some of the financing they sought and 32.0% were in poor condition.

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“Federal Reserve Banks, Small Business Credit Survey: 2021 Report on Nonemployer Firms (2021).” Original at web.archive.org. Archived at Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/source-documents/federal-reserve-banks-small-business-credit-survey-2021-report-on-none-8f6d366633/, SHA-256 373ba97bd0c51323e5e53d569fb28bcaa8369458373e7dafca231e1576af26c5.

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SMALL
BUSINESS
CREDIT
SURVEY
2021 REPORT ON
NONEMPLOYER FIRMS




                 F E DE R A L R E SE RV E BA N K S
                 Atlanta • Boston • Chicago • Cleveland • Dallas • Kansas City • Minneapolis
                 New York • Philadelphia • Richmond • St. Louis • San Francisco

 SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                               1
TABLE OF CONTENTS


I     ACKNOWLEDGMENTS                                             11   LOOKING AHEAD
                                                                  11   Performance Expectations, Next 12 Months
II    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                                                  12   Expected Pandemic-Related Challenges,
                                                                       Next 12 Months
1     DEMOGRAPHICS
1     Nonemployer Trends                                          13   DEBT & FINANCING
2     Firm Owner Characteristics                                  13   Debt Outstanding
3     Firm Characteristics                                        14   Financial Services Providers
                                                                  15   Financing Demand and Outcomes,
4     PERFORMANCE & CHALLENGES
                                                                       Prior 12 Months
4     Revenue Change and Financial Condition
                                                                  16   Financing Needs and Outcomes
5     Financial Challenges and Reliance on
                                                                  17   Loan, Line of Credit, and Cash Advance
      Personal Funds
                                                                       Sources

6     EMERGENCY FUNDING                                           18   Loan, Line of Credit, and Cash Advance
                                                                       Application Outcomes
6     Pandemic-Related Emergency
      Funding Needs
                                                                  19   METHODOLOGY
7     PPP Nonapplicants
8     Applications and Outcomes
9     PPP Applications and Outcomes




SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                   i
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The Small Business Credit Survey is made possible through collaboration with business and civic organizations in communities across the
United States. The Federal Reserve Banks thank the national, regional, and community partners who share valuable insights about small
business financing needs and collaborate with us to promote and distribute the survey.1 We also thank the National Opinion Research
Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago for assistance with weighting the survey data to be statistically representative of the nation’s
small business population.2
Special thanks to colleagues within the Federal Reserve System, especially the Community Affairs Officers,3 and to representatives
from the US Small Business Administration; America’s SBDC, the nationwide network of Small Business Development Centers; the US
Department of the Treasury; the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; the Opportunity Finance Network; Accion; and The Aspen Institute
for their ongoing support for the Small Business Credit Survey.
The 2020 Small Business Credit Survey and this report are the result of the collaborative effort, input, and analysis of the following teams:


REPORT TEAM4                                                                     OUTREACH TEAM
Emily Wavering Corcoran, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland                       Leilani Barnett, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Lucas Misera, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland                                  Brian Clarke, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Ann Marie Wiersch, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland                             Joselyn Cousins, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
                                                                                 Naomi Cytron, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
SURVEY TEAM                                                                      Peter Dolkart, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Jessica Battisto, Federal Reserve Bank of New York                               Emily Engel, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Mels de Zeeuw, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta                                   Ian Galloway, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Rebecca Landau, Federal Reserve Bank of New York                                 Dell Gines, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Lucas Misera, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland                                  Desiree Hatcher, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Ann Marie Wiersch, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland                             Melody Head, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
                                                                                 Mary Hirt, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
SURVEY ADVISORS                                                                  Treye Johnson, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Claire Kramer Mills, Federal Reserve Bank of New York                            Jason Keller, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Mark Schweitzer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland                               Garvester Kelley, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
                                                                                 Steven Kuehl, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
PARTNER COMMUNICATIONS LEADS                                                     Michou Kokodoko, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Grace Guynn, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta                                     Lisa Locke, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Mary Hirt, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta                                       Craig Nolte, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
                                                                                 Drew Pack, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
PARTNER OUTREACH LEADS                                                           Emily Ryder Perlmeter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Brian Clarke, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston                                     Alvaro Sánchez, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Janelle Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta                                Javier Silva, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
                                                                                 Marva Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

We thank all of the above for their contributions.

Emily Wavering Corcoran, Small Business Credit Survey Program Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The views expressed in the following pages are those of the report team and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve System.
1    For a full list of community partners, please visit www.fedsmallbusiness.org.
2    For complete information about the survey methodology, please see Methodology.
3    Joseph Firschein, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Karen Leone de Nie, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Prabal Chakrabarti, Federal
     Reserve Bank of Boston; Daniel Sullivan, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Emily Garr Pacetti, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Roy Lopez, Federal Reserve
     Bank of Dallas; Teesha Miller, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City; Alene Tchourumoff, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; Tony Davis, Federal Reserve
     Bank of New York; Theresa Singleton, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Christy Cleare, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond; Daniel Davis, Federal Reserve
     Bank of St. Louis; and Laura Choi, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
4    The Report and Survey Teams appreciate the thoughtful comments, managerial support, and guidance from the following colleagues: Lisa Nelson from the
     Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Brent Meyer, Veronika Penciakova, Nick Parker, and Kevin Foster from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; and Barbara
     Lipman and Marysol Weindorf from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Valuable assistance with this publication was provided by Heather
     Ann from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                    i
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


The COVID-19 pandemic affected small           This publication examines findings for         In some instances, this report references
businesses across the United States, with      nonemployer firms and highlights the           “larger” and “smaller” nonemployer firms
few escaping financial and operational         differences in experiences between             and employer firms. Smaller nonemployer
challenges as a result of declines in          nonemployer and employer businesses.           firms are those with $100,000 or less in
economic activity and actions taken to         On average, nonemployer firms reported         annual revenues; larger nonemployers are
reduce the spread of the virus. Among the      larger declines in performance in the 12       those with more than $100,000 in annual
most impacted firms were the smallest          months preceding the survey than employer      revenues. Smaller employer firms are those
businesses—nonemployer firms—which             firms, and nonemployers also more often        with $1 million or less in annual revenues;
are businesses with no employees other         struggled to access the funding necessary      larger employers are those with more than
than the owner(s). Given nonemployers          to keep their businesses afloat. This          $1 million in annual revenues.
make up 81% of all small businesses in the     report also underscores the importance
United States, understanding the impact        of revenue size: Nonemployer firms with
                                                                                              Nonemployer firms widely reported
of the pandemic on those businesses and        $100,000 or less in annual revenues faced
                                                                                              declining revenues between 2019 and
their ability to access emergency funding is   more challenges and worse outcomes than
                                                                                              2020 and often turned to personal funds in
important in assessing the overall well-       larger-revenue nonemployers, which often
                                                                                              response to financial challenges.
being of the small business sector.            reported conditions similar to those of
                                               smaller-revenue employer businesses.           n   Seventy-six percent of nonemployers
This publication focuses on the experiences
                                                                                                  reported a decline in revenues in the 12
of nonemployer firms in the months leading
                                                                                                  months prior to the survey. Just 13%
up to the pandemic and the first six months    SURVEY FINDINGS                                    reported revenue growth.
of the crisis. The report supplements the
findings from the 2020 Small Business          The SBCS provides data on small business       n   Among all nonemployers, 32%
Credit Survey (SBCS) described in the Small    performance, financing needs and                   characterized their financial condition as
Business Credit Survey 2021 Report on          decisions, and borrowing outcomes. The             “poor” at the time of the survey. Thirty-
Employer Firms, which explored outcomes        2020 SBCS, which was fielded in September          six percent of smaller nonemployer
for businesses with 1–499 paid employees       and October 2020, yielded 4,531 responses          firms were in poor financial condition;
other than the owner(s). Nonemployer           from nonemployer firms (hereafter                  this figure falls to 23% for larger
firms are distinct from employer firms in      “nonemployers,” or “nonemployer firms”) in         nonemployer firms.
more than just the employment size of the      all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
business. Nonemployers are concentrated        This report also includes findings from a      n   Eighty-one percent of nonemployer
in different industries and are more likely    sample of 9,693 small employer firms—              firms experienced some type of financial
to be owned by women and people of color.      that is, firms with 1-499 full- or part-time       challenge in the 12 months prior to the
While some nonemployers are gig workers        employees (hereafter “employers,” or               survey. Compared to employer firms,
supplementing their income, a majority         “employer firms”).                                 nonemployers more often turned to
of the respondents in the SBCS sample                                                             personal funds and reported some
reported that their firm was the primary                                                          impact to household finances as a result
source of income for their household,                                                             of those challenges.
and a quarter of them planned to become
employer firms within the next year.




SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                              ii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
(Continued)

Nonemployer firms accessed COVID-              As the availability of emergency funding          ABOUT THE SURVEY
related small business assistance at           increased, demand for traditional financing
lower rates than employer firms, though        fell among nonemployers between 2019              The SBCS is an annual survey of firms with
many nonemployer firm owners received          and 2020. Nonemployer firms that did              fewer than 500 employees. Respondents
enhanced unemployment benefits.                apply for financing were less likely than         are asked to report information about their
                                               employer firms to receive the full amount         business performance, financing needs
n   While 91% of employer firms completed      they sought.                                      and choices, and borrowing experiences.
    an application for emergency assistance                                                      Responses to the SBCS provide insights on
    funding, just 66% of nonemployers          n   Twenty-four percent of nonemployers           the dynamics behind lending trends and
    completed an application. However, 30%         applied for financing in the 12 months        shed light on various segments of the small
    of nonemployer firm owners reported            prior to the survey, a decline from 29% in    business population.
    collecting unemployment insurance              the 2019 survey period.
    benefits.
                                               n   More than one in three nonemployer
n   Smaller nonemployer firms were less            firms received none of the financing
    likely than larger nonemployer firms           for which they applied. Among smaller
    to apply for and receive emergency             nonemployer firms, 42% received none
    assistance funding. While 62% of smaller       of the financing they sought. The same
    nonemployers sought and received               was true for 35% of larger nonemployer
    assistance, 78% of larger nonemployers         applicant firms.
    did so.
                                               n   Compared to employer firms that
n   The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP),         applied for financing, nonemployers
    which was the most popular emergency           firms that applied were less likely to
    funding program for employer firms,            seek financing at small banks (30% vs.
    was far less commonly used by                  43% of employers) and more likely to
    nonemployers. Thirty-five percent of           turn to online lenders (25% vs. 20% of
    nonemployers applied for a PPP loan,           employers).
    as compared to 82% of employers.
    Nonemployers that did apply for a          n   Across the most common sources of
    PPP loan were less successful than             loans, lines of credit, and cash advances,
    employers at obtaining the funding they        nonemployer applicant firms were more
    sought.                                        likely to be at least partially approved at
                                                   small banks (56%) than at online lenders
                                                   (50%) or large banks (41%).




SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                            iii
   DEMOGRAPHICS
   Nonemployer Trends



     81% of small businesses are nonemployer firms—firms with no employees other
     than the business owner(s).


    NUMBER OF SMALL BUSINESSES, 1998–2018 1,2
                                                                                                                                         Nonemployer firms
                                                                                                                                         Small employer firms
                               35

                               30




Number of firms (millions)
                               25

                               20

                               15

                               10

                                 5

                                 0
                                  1998        2000         2002          2004        2006         2008         2010           2012        2014     2016          2018




   NUMBER OF NONEMPLOYER FIRMS 3

        2018
                                                                                                                                            26,485,532


        2013                                                                                                                 23,005,620


        2008                                                                                                       21,351,320


        2003                                                                                       18,649,114


        1998                                                                           15,708,727




         1                   Data for small employer firms is sourced from US Census Bureau’s Statistics of US Businesses.
                             Data for nonemployer firms is sourced from US Census Bureau’s Nonemployer Statistics.
         2                   Small employer firms are businesses with 1–499 employees.
         3                   Sourced from US Census Bureau, Nonemployer Statistics.


  SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                       1
        DEMOGRAPHICS
        Firm Owner Characteristics



        Nonemployer firms are more likely than employer firms to be owned by people
        of color and women.


        RACE/ETHNICITY OF OWNER(S) 1,2                                                             GENDER OF OWNER(S) 2
        (% of nonemployer and employer firms)                                                      (% of nonemployer and employer firms)


                                             6%
                                                      10%                                                                                           21%
                                              14%                2%

                                                      7%
Nonemployer                                                           Employer               Nonemployer                                           42%            Employer
firms                                                                 firms                  firms                                                                firms
                                                      11%
(N=4,531)                                                             (N=9,693)              (N=4,531)                                                            (N=9,693)



                                         68%                                                                                         58%

                                         82%                                                                                         79%


             Asian           Black            Hispanic           White                                Women-owned                Men-owned or equally owned




        DESCRIPTION OF PRIMARY OWNER’S WORK
        FOR THE BUSINESS 3 (% of nonemployer firms)                               N=4,011


                   Business is owner's
                                                                                                         59% of nonemployer firms
                               only job                                             67%                  account for all or most of their
                                                                                                         primary owner’s household income
              Owner has multiple jobs;
                  this is the main job          17%
                                                                                                         45% of nonemployer firms work
              Owner has multiple jobs;                                                                   as independent contractors for
                  this is not main job        14%
                                                                                                         other businesses or agencies

             Owner does not regularly
               work at this business           1%                                                        18% of surveyed nonemployer
                                                                                                         firms perform gig work4



        1       Non-Hispanic Native American, not shown, account for less than 1 percent of nonemployer firms.
        2       SBCS responses throughout the report are weighted using Census Bureau data to represent the nonemployer firm population in the United States by age,
                industry, geographic location, gender of owner(s), and race or ethnicity of owner(s). Employer firm responses are weighted using Census Bureau data to
                represent the US small employer firm population on the following dimensions: firm age, number of employees, industry, geography, race/ethnicity of owner, and
                gender of owner. For details on weighting, see Methodology.
        3       Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
        4       The SBCS questionnaire describes a gig as a single project or task for which a worker is hired, sometimes through a digital marketplace, to work on demand.
                Examples include Uber driver, freelancer, etc.


        SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                       2
DEMOGRAPHICS
Firm Characteristics



Compared to employer firms, nonemployer firms are smaller, as measured by
revenues. Nonemployer firms are more concentrated in service industries.


REVENUE SIZE OF FIRM 1,2 (% of nonemployer and employer firms)

                                                                        <1%
                                                                         2%                         5%                  ≥ $10M

                                                         28%                                                            $1M to < $10M
        For purposes of this                                                                       30%
                                                                                                                        $100K to < $1M
        report, “Smaller
        nonemployer firms”                                                                                              ≤$100K
        are those with $100K
        or less in annual
        revenues. “Larger
        nonemployer firms”                                                                         50%
        are those with more                              70%
        than $100K in annual
        revenues.

                                                                                                   15%

                                                Nonemployer firms                            Employer firms
                                                      (N=4,230)                                  (N=9,440)




INDUSTRY 1,3,4 (% of nonemployer and employer firms)
                                                                                                                                               Manufacturing

                                                                                                                                                    Finance &
                                                                                                                                                    insurance
                                                                  Non-manufacturing                 Business             Healthcare &              Leisure &
                                                                   goods production                 support &             education                hospitality
                           Professional services &                   & associated                   consumer
                                 real estate                           services                      services                             Retail
Nonemployer firms
           (N=4,531)                  26%                                 23%                          21%                   11%            8%        7% 3% 1%


    Employer firms
            (N=9,693)
                                      20%                      18%                   15%                 13%               13%            11%          6% 4%



1    SBCS responses throughout the report are weighted using Census Bureau data to represent the nonemployer firm population in the United States by age,
     industry, geographic location, gender of owner(s), and race or ethnicity of owner(s). Employer firm responses are weighted using Census Bureau data to
     represent the US small employer firm population on the following dimensions: firm age, number of employees, industry, geography, race/ethnicity of owner, and
     gender of owner. For details on weighting, see Methodology.
2    Categories have been condensed and simplified for readability. Actual categories are: ≤$25K, $25,001–$50K, $50,001–$100K, $100,001–$500K, $500,001–$1M,
     $1,000,001–$5M, $5,000,001–$10M, >$10M.
3    Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
4    Within non-manufacturing goods production and associated services, the share of nonemployer firms is higher than the share of employers for transportation
     and wholesale businesses.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                  3
PERFORMANCE & CHALLENGES
Revenue Change and Financial Condition



A majority of nonemployer firms experienced declines in revenues during the prior
12 months.


NONEMPLOYER FIRM REVENUE PERFORMANCE INDEX, Prior 12 Months 1,2 (% of nonemployer firms)



       16%                            16%                           19%                           18%


    2016 Survey                  2017 Survey                   2018 Survey                 2019 Survey
     (N=5,225)                      (N=5,380)                     (N=5,622)                  (N=3,849)


                                                                                                                                  -63%


                                                                                                                               2020 Survey
                                                                                                                                 (N=4,520)



36% of smaller nonemployers and 23% of larger nonemployers were in poor financial
condition at the time of the survey. Overall, 32% of nonemployers reported that
their firm was in poor financial condition.


SHARE OF FIRMS IN “POOR” FINANCIAL CONDITION, At Time of Survey3,4 (% of nonemployer and employer firms)


                                                  36%




                                                                                 23%                           23%




                                               Smaller                         Larger                       Employer
                                             nonemployer                    nonemployer                      firms
                                                firms                           firms                        (N=9,664)
                                                (N=3,022)                      (N=1,195)




1      The index is the share reporting revenue growth minus the share reporting a reduction.
2      Prior 12 months is approximately the second half of the prior year through the second half of the surveyed year.
3      Firm’s financial condition was self-reported by the respondent. Response options were excellent, very good, good, fair, and poor. See Appendix for more detail.
4      At time of survey, September through October 2020.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                          4
PERFORMANCE & CHALLENGES
Financial Challenges and Reliance on Personal Funds



Nonemployer firms reported more financial challenges in 2020 than in prior years.
Compared to employer firms, nonemployer firms were more likely to rely on the
owners’ personal funds to address challenges.


SHARE OF FIRMS WITH FINANCIAL CHALLENGES, Prior 12 Months 1 (% of nonemployer firms)

                                                                                                                                     81%

                                                                                                                                2020 Survey
                                                                                                                                   (N=4,511)

                                                                                          69%

       64%                                                                            2019 Survey
                                                62%                                      (N=3,986)
 2017 Survey
     (N=5,511)                              2018 Survey
                                              (N=5,764)




SHARE OF FIRMS USING OWNERS’ PERSONAL                                                  SHARE OF FIRM OWNERS REPORTING IMPACT
FUNDS TO ADDRESS FINANCIAL CHALLENGES,                                                 ON PERSONAL FINANCES FROM THEIR FIRMS’
Prior 12 Months 2,3                                                                    PANDEMIC-RELATED CHALLENGES 4
(% of nonemployer and employer firms)                                                  (% of nonemployer and employer firms)



Smaller nonemployer firms                                                            Smaller nonemployer firms                                          88%
                       (N=2,451)
                                                          73%                                              (N=2,146)



    Larger nonemployer firms                         70%                              Larger nonemployer firms                                       85%
                         (N=948)                                                                             (N=876)



                 Employer firms                                                                      Employer firms                              80%
                       (N=7,897)
                                                62%                                                        (N=6,794)




1      Prior 12 months is approximately the second half of the prior year through the second half of the surveyed year.
2      Prior 12 months is approximately the second half of 2019 through the second half of 2020.
3      Select response option shown. See Appendix for more detail on other actions taken in response to financial challenges.
4      Data on personal finances were drawn from questions in the optional end-of-survey module (completed by approximately 80% of respondents). This subset of
       respondents is re-weighted to be reflective of the overall small firm population. See Appendix for more detail on responses.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                   5
EMERGENCY FUNDING
Pandemic-Related Emergency Funding Needs



Nonemployer firms were less likely than employer firms to apply for Paycheck
Protection Program (PPP) loans. Smaller nonemployer firms were least likely
to apply.

APPLICATIONS FOR EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE FUNDS 1,2 (% of nonemployer and employer firms)
                                                                              Nonemployer firms
                   82%                                                             (N=4,408)

                                                                                                                                   Employer firms
                                                                                                                                    (N=9,565)



             47%
    37%                      35%                                35%                                                                                         34%
                                                      29%                                28%
                                                                                21%

                                                                                                          6%      8%                 5%      8%                        9%
      EIDL loan                Paycheck                 EIDL grant           Grant from state/            Grant from               Loan from state/        Did not complete
                               Protection                                    local government             nonprofit or            local government            emergency
                                Program                                             fund                  foundation                     fund             assistance funding
                                                                                                                                                              application




SHARE OF FIRMS THAT APPLIED FOR A PPP LOAN 3 (% of nonemployer and employer firms)
Smaller nonemployer firms
                        (N=2,943)           28%

    Larger nonemployer firms
                        (N=1,179)                        55%

      Smaller employer firms
                        (N=5,911)                                   77%

       Larger employer firms
                        (N=3,417)                                           93%




                                     30% of nonemployer firm owners collected
                                               unemployment insurance benefits.4

1      The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) are administered through the US Small Business Administration. Select
       response options shown. See Appendix for more detail.
2      Respondents could select multiple options.
3      For purposes of this report, “Smaller employer firms” are those with $1M or less in annual revenues. “Larger employer firms” are those with more than $1M in annual
       revenues.
4      The CARES Act gives states the option of extending unemployment compensation to independent contractors and other self-employed workers who are
       ordinarily ineligible for unemployment benefits.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                         6
EMERGENCY FUNDING
PPP Nonapplicants



Nonemployer firms that did not seek PPP loans most often said they chose not
to apply because they did not expect they would qualify for the loan or for loan
forgiveness.

REASONS FIRMS DID NOT APPLY FOR A PPP LOAN 1,2,3 (% of nonemployer firms that did not apply for PPP)                                N=2,965


Business would not qualify for the loan
                                                                                                                            51%
                  or loan forgiveness



    Program/process was too confusing                                  17%

                                                                                                           Nonemployer firms
         Business did not need funding                               16%
                                                                                                           that did not apply for
                                                                                                           PPP were more likely
                                                                                                           than their employer
                    Unaware of program
                                                                                                           firm counterparts
                                                            11%
                                                                                                           to expect they
                                                                                                           would not qualify
                                                                                                           for the loan or for
          Sought other funding instead                   10%
                                                                                                           forgiveness, as 37%
                                                                                                           of employer firms
                 Could not find a lender                                                                   cited this reason.
               to accept the application               8%



                         Missed deadline               8%



        Uninterested in government aid             5%




          Loan forgiveness was a concern even for nonemployers that applied for and
      received PPP loans. Among those that received PPP loans, 31% did not expect full
            loan forgiveness or were unsure, compared to 20% of employer firms.



1    The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is administered through the US Small Business Administration.
2    Respondents could select multiple options.
3    Top response options shown. See Appendix for more detail.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                          7
EMERGENCY FUNDING
Applications and Outcomes



Overall, nonemployer firms were less likely than their employer firm
counterparts to seek emergency funding and less likely to be approved.


PANDEMIC-RELATED EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE APPLICATIONS AND OUTCOMES 1,2

                                                                                                                Share that did not seek
                                                                                                                assistance but needed
                                                                                                                        funding
                                                       Share that sought                                                         Share that did not seek
                                                        assistance and                                                           any form of assistance
                                                       received funding                         Share that sought
                                                                                               assistance and were                  and did not need
                                                                                                 denied funding                          funding


Smaller nonemployer firms 62%                                                                                      20%                    9%
                   (N=2,813)
                                                                                                           8%


 Larger nonemployer firms 78%                                                                                            5% 10%
                   (N=1,120)
                                                                                                                                            7%


           Employer firms 87%                                                                                                      4% 6%       3%
                   (N= 9,294)




PPP FUNDING RECEIVED, AS SHARE OF AMOUNT SOUGHT 1 (% of nonemployer and employer PPP applicant firms)



Nonemployer firms      57%                                                                    7%          16%             20%
                       All                                                                    Most   Some                 None
           (N=1,375)                                                                          51–99% 1–50%


    Employer firms     77%                                                                                             11%          8%           4%
                       All                                                                                             Most         Some         None
           (N=7,575)                                                                                                   51–99%       1–50%




1   The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is administered through the US Small Business Administration.
2   Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                         8
EMERGENCY FUNDING
PPP Applications and Outcomes



Nonemployer PPP applicant firms were more likely than employer PPP applicant
firms to apply at an online lender. Smaller nonemployers were the most likely to
apply at an online lender.


PPP APPLICATIONS AT SOURCE 1,2 (% of nonemployer and employer PPP applicants)
                                                                                                            Nonemployer firms
                                    48%                                                                      (N=1,393)

           43%                                                                                              Employer firms
 41%                                                                                                         (N=7,696)

                          35%




                                                  19%


                                                            9%             8%
                                                                                   5%             5%                                2%
                                                                                                           3%             3%
    Large bank3            Small bank            Online lender4           Credit union             Nonbank                    CDFI6
                                                                                                    finance
                                                                                                   company5




SHARE OF FIRMS THAT APPLIED FOR PPP AT ONLINE LENDERS 1,4,7 (% of nonemployer and employer PPP applicants)

Smaller nonemployer firms
                         (N=730)
                                                      24%


    Larger nonemployer firms               15%
                         (N=623)


      Smaller employer firms
                        (N=4,392)
                                      11%


       Larger employer firms            4%
                        (N=3,172)


1      The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is administered through the US Small Business Administration.
2      Respondents could select multiple options; respondents may have submitted more than one application.
3      Respondents were provided a list of large banks (those with at least $10B in total deposits) operating in their state.
4      “Online lenders,” also called fintech lenders, are nonbanks that lend online. Examples include Lending Club, OnDeck, CAN Capital, Paypal Working Capital,
       Kabbage, etc.
5      “Finance company” includes nonbank lenders such as mortgage companies, equipment dealers, insurance companies, auto finance companies, etc.
6      Community development financial institutions (CDFIs) are financial institutions that provide credit and financial services to underserved markets and
       populations. CDFIs are certified by the CDFI Fund at the US Department of the Treasury.
7      For purposes of this report, “Smaller employer firms” are those with $1M or less in annual revenues. “Larger employer firms” are those with more than $1M in
       annual revenues.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                       9
EMERGENCY FUNDING
PPP Applications and Outcomes (Continued)



Nonemployer firms that sought PPP were most successful at small banks and least
successful at online lenders and credit unions. Regardless of source, nonemployer
firms were less likely than employer firms to receive all the PPP funding sought.



SHARE OF PPP APPLICANTS THAT RECEIVED ALL OF THE PPP FUNDING SOUGHT, By Source 1
(% of nonemployer and employer PPP applicants)



                             Nonemployer firms                                                Employer firms

             Small bank
            (N=496–3,621)
                                                                        63%                                                                  78%



            Large bank2
            (N=566–3,389)                                      52%                                                                   70%



            Credit union
              (N=126–391)                                46%                                                                    63%



          Online lender3
              (N=277–671)                             45%                                                                  47%




1    Select lenders shown. See Appendix for more detail.
2    Respondents were provided a list of large banks (those with at least $10B in total deposits) operating in their state.
3    “Online lenders,” also called fintech lenders, are nonbanks that lend online. Examples include Lending Club, OnDeck, CAN Capital, Paypal Working Capital, Kabbage, etc.



SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                        10
 LOOKING AHEAD
 Performance Expectations, Next 12 Months



 The net share of nonemployer firms expecting revenue growth in the coming
 year declined sharply from levels observed in prior surveys. Still, about a quarter
 of nonemployers plan to add employees in the next 12 months, a slight decline
 from 2019.1


 NONEMPLOYER FIRM REVENUE EXPECTATIONS INDEX, Next 12 Months 2,3
 (% of nonemployer firms)


     63%
                                          62%
                                                                                 59%                                    59%
2016 Survey                          2017 Survey
  (N=5,255)                            (N=5,445)                            2018 Survey                     2019 Survey
                                                                              (N=5,691)                       (N=3,854)




                                                                                                                                                    4%

                                                                                                                                                2020 Survey
                                                                                                                                                 (N=4,515)




                        25% of nonemployer firms and 31% of employer firms
                               expect to add employees in the next 12 months.4




 1    The share of nonemployer firms that expected to add employees in the next 12 months declined slightly, from 29% in 2019 to 25% in 2020.
 2    The index is the share reporting expected growth minus the share reporting a reduction.
 3    Expected change in approximately the second half of the surveyed year through the second half of the following year.
 4    Next 12 months is approximately the second half of 2020 through the second half of 2021.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                      11
LOOKING AHEAD
Expected Pandemic-Related Challenges, Next 12 Months



94% of nonemployers anticipated pandemic-related challenges in the 12 months
following the survey.


CHALLENGES FIRMS EXPECT TO FACE AS A RESULT OF THE PANDEMIC, Next 12 Months 1,2                   N=4,435
(% of nonemployer firms)




 Weak demand for products/
                                                                                    60%
                  services



       Government-mandated
                                                                    43%
         restrictions/closures



     Limited credit availability                       28%




      Supply chain disruptions                       26%




    Personal/family obligations                     24%




                Labor shortages         11%




     No significant challenges        6%




1      Respondents could select multiple options.
2      Next 12 months is approximately the second half of 2020 through the second half of 2021.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                         12
DEBT & FINANCING
Debt Outstanding



The share of nonemployer firms with debt increased from 2019, pandemic-related
assistance aside.


SHARE OF FIRMS WITH DEBT OUTSTANDING, At Time of Survey 1,2
(% of nonemployer and employer firms)
                                                                                                        Nonemployer firms                  Employer firms

                                                                                                                                                        79%


     71%                                                                                                           71%
                                                                              70%
                                         68%
                                                                                                                                                        59%


     51%                                                                                                           51%

                                                                              46%
                                         45%

2016 Survey                          2017 Survey                          2018 Survey                         2019 Survey                          2020 Survey
(N=5,298–9,802)                     (N=5,474–8,081)                      (N=5,769–6,540)                      (N=3,962–5,101)                     (N=4,445–9,530)




AMOUNT OF DEBT, At Time of Survey 1,2,3 (% of nonemployer and employer firms)



    Nonemployer firms
                  (N=4,420)
                                                                     41%                                                            50%          9%


       Employer firms
                  (N=9,443)
                                            21%                                        34%                                                    45%

                                              No debt outstanding                      ≤$100K                     >$100K




1     Respondents were instructed to exclude loans they expected would be forgiven from their outstanding debt (for example, PPP loans).
2     At time of survey, September through October 2020.
3     Categories have been condensed and simplified for readability. Actual response options are: ≤$25K, $25,001–$50K, $50,001–$100K, $100,001–$250K,
      $250,001–$1M, >$1M.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                               13
DEBT & FINANCING
Financial Services Providers



Compared to employer firms, nonemployer firms were less likely to use a large or
small bank for financial services, and they were more likely to report they did not
use any financial services providers.

USE OF FINANCIAL SERVICES PROVIDERS 1,2,3 (% of nonemployer and employer firms)

           49%                                                                                                           Nonemployer firms
                                     45%                                                                                  (N=4,487)
    41%                                                                                                                  Employer firms
                                                                                                                          (N=9,646)
                           28%

                                                     16%                                                                            18%
                                                               12%              10%      11%
                                                                                                           4%      8%                         7%
    Large bank  4
                             Small bank               Credit union           Nonbank online/                Nonbank                   Business
                                                                              fintech lender5                finance                does not use
                                                                                                           company6                   financial
                                                                                                                                      services



SHARE SATISFIED WITH SUPPORT FROM PRIMARY FINANCIAL SERVICES PROVIDER DURING THE
PANDEMIC 7 (% of nonemployer and employer firms that use provider)

                                                                                                                          Nonemployer firms
                                               29%
    Large bank4                                                                                                           Employer firms
(N=1,522–3,893)
                                                              41%


                                                               42%
    Small bank
(N=1,026–3,259)
                                                                                      61%


                                                           39%
    Credit union
     (N=544–575)
                                                                      48%


                                              28%
Online lender5
     (N=169–346)
                                 18%




1     Financial services providers are those at which the firm has an account or uses other financial services (including loans, payments processing, etc.).
2     Respondents could select multiple options.
3     Select providers shown. See Appendix for detail.
4     Respondents were provided a list of large banks (those with at least $10B in total deposits) operating in their state.
5     Online lenders/fintech companies are nonbanks that operate online. Examples include OnDeck, Kabbage, Paypal, Square, etc.
6     “Finance company” includes nonbank lenders such as mortgage companies, equipment dealers, insurance companies, auto finance companies, etc.
7     Satisfaction is available for only respondents’ primary financial services providers. Select providers shown. See Appendix for details on primary financial
      services providers.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                     14
DEBT & FINANCING
Financing Demand and Outcomes, Prior 12 Months



Demand for traditional financing declined among both nonemployer and employer
firms between the 2019 and 2020 surveys.


SHARE THAT APPLIED FOR FINANCING, Prior 12 Months 1,2 (% of nonemployer and employer firms)
2020 application rate excludes PPP and other pandemic-related emergency funding applications.

                                                                                                          Nonemployer firms                  Employer firms

      45%
                                                                             43%                                43%
                                          40%
                                                                                                                                                      37%

      29%                                                                                                        29%
                                          25%                                26%
                                                                                                                                                      24%

 2016 Survey                        2017 Survey                         2018 Survey                         2019 Survey                            2020 Survey
(N=5,345–9,868)                     (N=5,547–8,169)                    (N=5,841–6,614)                      (N=4,020–5,154)                    (N=4,400–9,407)




Overall, 60% of nonemployer firms received at least some of the financing they
sought. Larger nonemployers were more likely to obtain the financing they sought
than smaller nonemployers.


TOTAL FINANCING RECEIVED 3,4 (% of nonemployer and employer applicant firms)


Smaller nonemployer firms 42%                                                            31%                                        9%       17%
                                   None                                                  Some                                       Most     All
                         (N=596)                                                         1–50%                                      51–99%


    Larger nonemployer firms 35%                                               22%                          14%               29%
                                   None                                        Some                         Most              All
                         (N=324)                                               1–50%                        51–99%


              Employer firms 25%                                  23%                            15%                 37%
                                   None                           Some                           Most                All
                       (N=3,500)                                  1–50%                          51–99%




1     In the 2020 survey, respondents were asked first about their applications for pandemic-related emergency funding, and then were asked to exclude these
      emergency funding applications from subsequent responses on the applications for financing.
2     Prior 12 months is approximately the second half of the prior year through the second half of the surveyed year.
3     Excludes emergency funding applications.
4     Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                  15
DEBT & FINANCING
Financing Needs and Outcomes



FUNDING NEEDS AND OUTCOMES 1,2 (% of nonemployer firms)                                                                                  N=4,294




To gauge funding success and shortfalls, we combine applicants’ financing outcomes and nonapplicants’ reasons for not applying. Firms
that had their funding needs met emerge in two forms:
1) Applicant firms that received the full amount of financing sought; or
2) Nonapplicant firms that did not apply for financing because they already had sufficient financing.

The remaining firms have unmet funding needs. When applicant firms did not obtain the full amount of financing sought, we consider
them to have a funding shortfall. When nonapplicant firms reported they did not have sufficient financing, we consider them to have unmet
funding needs.




                                 24%                                                                                76%
                       Applied for financing                                                         Did not apply for financing
      9%                  7%                  3%                   5%                  33%                  14%           21%         8%
      None             Received             Received          Received all           Sufficient         Debt averse    Discouraged3   Other
                        some                  most                                   financing




                        19%                                               38%                                           43%
                  Had a financing                                       Financing                                      Have unmet
                     shortfall                                          needs met                                     funding needs




1   Based on the prior 12 months, which is approximately the second half of 2019 through the second half of 2020.
2   Excludes emergency funding applications.
3   Discouraged firms are those that did not apply for financing because they believed they would be turned down.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                               16
DEBT & FINANCING
Loan, Line of Credit, and Cash Advance Sources



Compared to employer firms, nonemployer firms that sought financing were less
likely to apply for financing at small banks and more likely to apply at online lenders.


CREDIT SOURCES APPLIED TO 1,2 (% of nonemployer and employer loan, line of credit, and cash advance applicant firms)

                                                                                                                 Nonemployer firms
                                                                                        45%                       (N=598)
              Large bank    3

                                                                                   42%                           Employer firms
                                                                                                                  (N=2,574)

                                                                  30%
               Small bank
                                                                                    43%

                                                          25%
            Online lender4
                                                   20%


                                            15%
       Finance company5
                                            15%


              Credit union              12%
                                     9%


                                 5%
                      CDFI6
                                3%




1   Excludes emergency funding applications.
2   Respondents could select multiple options.
3   Respondents were provided a list of large banks (those with at least $10B in total deposits) operating in their state.
4   “Online lenders,” also called fintech lenders, are nonbanks that lend online. Examples include Lending Club, OnDeck, CAN Capital, Paypal Working Capital,
    Kabbage, etc.
5   “Finance company” includes nonbank lenders such as mortgage companies, equipment dealers, insurance companies, auto finance companies, etc.
6   Community development financial institutions (CDFIs) are financial institutions that provide credit and financial services to underserved markets and
    populations. CDFIs are certified by the CDFI Fund at the US Department of the Treasury.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                 17
DEBT & FINANCING
Loan, Line of Credit, and Cash Advance Application Outcomes



Both nonemployer and employer applicants were more successful obtaining
financing at small banks than at other sources.



APPROVAL RATES FOR LOAN, LINE OF CREDIT, AND CASH ADVANCE APPLICATIONS, By Source 1,2,3
(% of nonemployer and employer loan, line of credit, and cash advance applicants at source)


                                                                                                                                  Nonemployer firms
                                                  74%                                                                             Employer firms
                                                                              62%                        65%
                                        56%
                                                                                               50%
                                                                    41%




                                         Small bank                 Large bank4                Online lender5
                                         (N=171–995)                (N=258–1,069)                (N=149–455)




APPROVAL RATES FOR LOAN, LINE OF CREDIT, AND CASH ADVANCE APPLICATIONS, Prior 12 Months 1,2,6
(% of nonemployer and employer loan, line of credit, and cash advance applicants)


                                                      Nonemployer firms                   Employer firms



                                                81%


                                                64%                                                   70%




                                                                                                     51%


                                       Before March 1, 2020                                 After March 1, 2020
                                            (N=234–1,137)                                        (N=441–1,679)




1    Approval rate is the share approved for at least some credit.
2    Excludes emergency funding applications.
3    Select sources shown. See Appendix for more detail.
4    Respondents were provided a list of large banks (those with at least $10B in total deposits) operating in their state.
5    “Online lenders,” also called fintech lenders, are nonbanks that lend online. Examples include Lending Club, OnDeck, CAN Capital, Paypal Working Capital,
     Kabbage, etc.
6    Prior 12 months is approximately the second half of 2019 through the second half of 2020.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                  18
METHODOLOGY


DATA COLLECTION                                         industry, geographic location (urban or                  models is used to attempt to impute the
                                                        rural location), gender of owner(s), and race            missing data. When the models are able
The Small Business Credit Survey                        or ethnicity of owner(s). We first limit the             to predict with an average accuracy of
(SBCS) uses a convenience sample                        sample in each year to only nonemployer                  80 percent in out-of-sample tests, the
of establishments. Businesses are                       firms. We then post-stratify respondents by              predicted values from the models are
contacted by email through a diverse set of             their firm characteristics. Using a statistical          used for the missing data.5 When the
organizations that serve the small business             technique known as “raking,” we compare                  model is less certain, those data are not
community.1 Previous SBCS participants                  the share of businesses in each category                 imputed, and the responses are dropped.
and small businesses on publicly available              of each stratum (for example, within the                 After data are imputed, descriptive
email lists are also contacted directly by              industry stratum, the share of firms in the              statistics of key survey questions with
the Federal Reserve Banks.2 The survey                  sample that are manufacturers) to the share              and without imputed data are compared to
instrument is an online questionnaire that              of nonemployer businesses in the nation                  ensure stability of estimates. In the final
typically takes 6 to 12 minutes to complete,            that are in that category.3 As a result,                 sample of nonemployers, seven percent
depending on the intensity of a firm’s                  underrepresented firms are up weighted,                  of observations have imputed values for
search for financing. The questionnaire                 and overrepresented businesses are down                  the gender, race, or ethnicity of a firm’s
uses question branching and flows based                 weighted. We iterate this process several                ownership.
on responses to survey questions. For                   times for each stratum in order to derive a
example, financing applicants receive                   sample weight for each respondent. This                  To impute for owners’ race and ethnicity,
a different line of questioning than                    weighting methodology was developed in                   a series of logistic regression models is
nonapplicants. Therefore, the number of                 collaboration with the National Opinion                  used that incorporates a variety of firm
observations for each question varies by                Research Center (NORC) at the University                 characteristics, as well as demographic
how many firms receive and complete a                   of Chicago. The data used for weighting                  information on the business owners’ zip
particular question.                                    come from data collected by the US Census                code. First, a logistic regression model
                                                        Bureau.4                                                 is used to predict if business owners
                                                                                                                 are members of a minority group. Next,
WEIGHTING                                                                                                        for firms classified as minority-owned,
                                                        RACE/ETHNICITY AND GENDER                                a logistic probability model is used to
A sample for the SBCS is not selected
                                                        IMPUTATION                                               predict if business owners are of Hispanic
randomly; thus, the SBCS may be subject                                                                          ethnicity.6 Finally, the race for the business
to biases not present with surveys that                 Nine percent of nonemployer respondents                  owners is imputed separately for Hispanic
do select firms randomly. For example,                  completed the survey but did not provide                 and non-Hispanic firms using a multinomial
there are likely firms not on our contact               information on the gender, race, and/or                  logistic probability model. A similar process
lists, and this may lead to a noncoverage               the ethnicity of their business’ owner(s).               is used to impute the gender of a business’s
bias. To control for potential biases, the              This information is needed to correct                    owners. First, a logistic model is used to
sample data are weighted so the weighted                for differences between the sample and                   predict if a business is owned by a man.
distribution of firms in the SBCS matches               the population data. To avoid dropping
the distribution of the nonemployer firm                these observations, a series of statistical
population in the United States by age,




1   For more information on partnerships, please visit www.fedsmallbusiness.org/partnership.
2   System for Award Management (SAM) Entity Management Extracts Public Data Package; Small Business Administration (SBA) Dynamic Small Business Search
    (DSBS); state-maintained lists of certified disadvantaged business enterprises (DBEs); state and local government procurement vendor lists, including minority
    and women-owned business enterprises (MWBEs); state and local government maintained lists of small or disadvantaged small businesses; and a list of veteran-
    owned small businesses maintained by the Department of Veterans Affairs.
3   Age strata are 0–2 years, 3–4 years, 5–12 years, and 13+ years. Industry strata are non-manufacturing goods production and associated services, manufacturing,
    retail, leisure and hospitality, finance and insurance, healthcare and education, professional services and real estate, and business support and consumer
    services. Race/ethnicity strata are Hispanic, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Black or African American, non-Hispanic Native American, and non-Hispanic white.
    Gender strata are men-owned or equally owned, and women-owned. See Appendix for industry definitions and urban and rural definitions.
4   Data on industry and urban/rural location come from the US Census Bureau’s 2018 Nonemployer Statistics (NES). Data from the US Department of Agriculture’s
    Rural-Urban Continuum Codes are used to classify a business’s county as urban or rural. Data on firm age come from the US Census Bureau’s 2012 Survey of
    Business Owners. Data on the race, ethnicity, and gender of business owners are derived from the US Census Bureau’s 2016 NES-D release.
5   Out-of-sample tests are used to develop thresholds for imputing the missing information. To test each model’s performance, half of the sample of non-missing data
    is randomly assigned as the test group, while the other half is used to develop coefficients for the model. The actual data from the test group is then compared with
    what the model predicts for the test group. On average, prediction probabilities that are associated with an accuracy of around 80 percent are used, although this
    varies slightly depending on the number of observations that are being imputed.
6   For some firms that were originally missing data on the race/ethnicity of their ownership, this information was gathered from public databases or past SBCS data.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                     19
METHODOLOGY
(Continued)


Then, for firms not classified as men-                survey years. After implementing changes         CREDIBILITY INTERVALS
owned or equally owned, another model is              to the weighting methodology, post-2015
used to predict if a business is owned by a           survey years have been weighted with a           The analysis in this report is aided by
woman. For some firms that were originally            uniform set of variables. Data for the 2015      the use of credibility intervals. Where
missing data on the race/ethnicity of their           survey year are thus not displayed in this       there are large differences in estimates
ownership, this information was gathered              report, as they lack information on several      between types of businesses, we perform
from public databases or past SBCS                    of the weighting variables. The data in this     additional checks on the data to determine
surveys.                                              report are, however, comparable to the           whether such differences are statistically
                                                      report containing 2018 survey data that          significant. The results of these tests
                                                      was published in 2019, and 2017 survey           help guide our analysis and help us
COMPARISONS TO PAST REPORTS                           data that were published in 2018. For more       decide what ultimately is included in the
                                                      information on the methodological changes        report. To determine whether differences
Because previous SBCS reports have                    to the “time-consistent” weights, please         are statistically significant, we develop
varied in terms of the population scope,              refer to the methodology section of the          credibility intervals using a balanced half-
geographic coverage, and weighting                    Small Business Credit Survey 2019 Report         sample approach.7 Because the SBCS does
methodology, the survey reports are                   on Employer Firms. In addition, many survey      not come from a probability-based sample,
not directly comparable across time.                  questions are not comparable over time           the credibility intervals we develop should
Geographic coverage and weighting                     due to changes in the response options.          be interpreted as model-based measures of
strategies have varied from year to year.             For example, the option “Finance company”        deviation from the true national population
For example, the 2016 data were not                   was added as an application source in the        values.8 We list 95 percent credibility
originally weighted by race, ethnicity, or            2019 survey; thus, the application rates by      intervals for key statistics in Table 1. The
gender of owner(s), whereas the 2017                  source displayed in the 2021 report are not      intervals shown apply to all nonemployer
through 2020 data (presented in this report)          directly comparable to reports prior to the      firms in the survey. More granular results
did include these owner demographics                  2019 survey.                                     with smaller observation counts will
in the weighting scheme, as described                                                                  generally have larger credibility intervals.
previously. In addition to being weighted
by different firm characteristics over
time, the categories used within each
characteristic have also differed across


                                                     TABLE 1
                                                     		

                                                                                                              Percent          Credibility Interval


                                                          Share that applied                                  23.9%                 +/- 1.9%


                                                          Share with outstanding debt                         59.3%                 +/- 1.8%

                                                          Share of firms that received at least some
                                                                                                              59.9%                 +/- 2.0%
                                                          of the financing they sought

                                                          Share of firms with financial
                                                                                                              18.6%                 +/- 0.7%
                                                          challenges in prior 12 months

                                                          Share of firms in poor condition                    32.0%                 +/- 0.8%




7   Wolter. Survey Weighting and the Calculating of Sampling Variance. 2007.
8   AAPOR. Task Force on Non-probability Sampling. 2013.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2021 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                       20


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