Estimated Revenue Effects, H.R. 1319, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 — JCX-13-21 (March 4, 2021)
Summary
A Joint Committee on Taxation estimate, JCX-13-21, dated March 4, 2021, of the revenue effects of an amendment in the nature of a substitute to H.R. 1319, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, as passed by the House of Representatives. The table covers fiscal years 2021 - 2031 in millions of dollars and gives a net total of -589,607 for 2021-31. The largest single item is the 2021 recovery rebates to individuals, at $1,400 for singles and $2,800 for married filing jointly plus $1,400 per dependent, estimated at -410,632. Other lines include child tax credit improvements at -109,529, the earned income tax credit at -25,818, the premium tax credit at -45,624 and pensions provisions at 30,957. A note states the date of enactment is assumed to be March 15, 2021.
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“Estimated Revenue Effects, H.R. 1319, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 — JCX-13-21 (March 4, 2021).”
Original at www.jct.gov. Archived at Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/source-documents/estimated-revenue-effects-of-the-american-rescue-plan-act-jcx-13-21-f896c320a3/
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JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION
March 4, 2021
JCX-13-21
ESTIMATED REVENUE EFFECTS OF AN AMENDMENT IN THE NATURE OF A SUBSTITUTE TO
H.R. 1319, THE "AMERICAN RESCUE PLAN ACT OF 2021,"
AS PASSED BY THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AND
SCHEDULED FOR CONSIDERATION BY THE SENATE
Fiscal Years 2021 - 2031
[Millions of Dollars]
Provision Effective 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2021-26 2021-30 2021-31
SUBTITLE F - PRESERVING HEALTH BENEFITS FOR cpo/a 4/1/21 &
WORKERS (SUNSET 9/30/21) [1][2][3]…........................................ tyea DOE [4] -26,604 -8,606 116 [5] [5] [5] [5] --- --- --- --- -35,095 -35,094 -35,095
SUBTITLE G - PROMOTING ECONOMIC SECURITY
I. 2021 Recovery Rebates to Individuals - $1,400 for Singles/$2,800
for Married Filing Jointly (SSN Required for Each Taxpayer),
and $1,400 Per Dependent (SSN Required for Each
Dependent); Phaseout Ranges by AGI: $75,000–$80,000 for
Single, $112,500–$120,000 for Head of Household,
$150,000–$160,000 for Married Filing Jointly (Fully Phased
Out at Larger Amounts); Payments to Certain Federal
Beneficiaries (sunset 12/31/21)…................................................ DOE -393,714 -16,918 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -410,632 -410,632 -410,632
II. Child Tax Credit - Improvements for 2021 (Sunset
12/31/21); and Application of Child Tax Credit in
Possessions [3] …......................................................................... tyba 12/31/20 -25,826 -79,249 -710 -721 -725 -721 -307 -311 -316 -320 -323 -107,953 -109,206 -109,529
III. Earned Income Tax Credit
1. Strengthening the earned income tax credit for individuals
with no qualifying children (sunset 12/31/21) [3]................. tyba 12/31/20 -521 -11,361 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -11,882 -11,882 -11,882
2. Taxpayer eligible for childless earned income credit
in case of qualifying children who fail to meet certain
identification requirements [3].............................................. tyba 12/31/20 [6] -12 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -16 -24 -26
3. Credit allowed in case of certain separated spouses [3]........ tyba 12/31/20 -1 -20 -21 -22 -23 -25 -25 -27 -28 -30 -31 -111 -221 -252
4. Modification of disqualified investment income test [3]...... tyba 12/31/20 -24 -330 -198 -200 -225 -229 -238 -233 -231 -240 -251 -1,206 -2,148 -2,399
5. Application of earned income tax credit in possessions of
the United States [3]............................................................. DOE --- -738 -746 -764 -781 -798 -814 -831 -849 -867 -885 -3,828 -7,189 -8,074
6. Temporary special rule for determining earned income for
purposes of earned income tax credit (sunset 12/31/20) [3].. DOE --- -3,185 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -3,185 -3,185 -3,185
Total of Earned Income Tax Credit….......................................................................... -546 -15,646 -967 -987 -1,030 -1,053 -1,079 -1,093 -1,110 -1,139 -1,169 -20,228 -24,649 -25,818
IV. Dependent Care Assistance
1. Refundability and enhancement of child and dependent
care tax credit (sunset 12/31/21) [3]..................................... tyba 12/31/20 -2,127 -5,837 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -7,964 -7,964 -7,964
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Provision Effective 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2021-26 2021-30 2021-31
2. Increase in exclusion for employer-provided dependent
care assistance (sunset 12/31/21) [7].................................... tyba 12/31/20 -78 -39 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -117 -117 -117
Total of Dependent Care Assistance…......................................................................... -2,205 -5,876 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -8,081 -8,081 -8,081
V. Extension and Modification of Credits for Paid Sick apwrt cqba 3/31/21
and Family Leave (sunset 9/30/21) [3] …................................... & DOE [8] -4,506 -1,747 [5] [5] [5] [5] [5] --- --- --- --- -6,253 -6,253 -6,253
VI. Extension and Modification of the Employee Retention
Credit (sunset 12/31/21) [3]…..................................................... cqba 6/30/21 -3,076 -7,146 [5] [5] [5] [5] [5] --- --- --- --- -10,222 -10,222 -10,222
VII. The Premium Tax Credit
1. Improving affordability by expanding premium assistance
for consumers (sunset 12/31/22) [2][3][9]............................ tyba 12/31/20 -4,137 -22,234 -7,964 -536 23 --- --- --- --- --- --- -34,847 -34,848 -34,847
2. Temporary modification of limitations on reconciliation of
tax credits for coverage under a qualified health plan with
advance payments of such credit (sunset 12/31/20) [10]...... tyba 12/31/19 -4,696 -1,565 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -6,261 -6,261 -6,261
3. Application of premium tax credit in case of individuals
receiving unemployment compensation during
2021 (sunset 12/31/21) [2][3][11]…...................................... tyba 12/31/20 -2,624 -1,660 -232 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -4,516 -4,516 -4,516
Total of the Premium Tax Credit …................................................................. -11,457 -25,459 -8,196 -536 23 --- --- --- --- --- --- -45,624 -45,625 -45,624
VIII. Miscellaneous Provisions
1. Repeal of worldwide interest allocation rules....................... tyba 12/31/20 335 1,277 2,023 2,284 2,383 2,334 2,358 2,385 2,343 2,283 2,327 10,636 20,005 22,331
2. Tax treatment of targeted economic injury disaster loan
advances............................................................................... --- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Estimate to Be Provided By The Congressional Budget Office - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
3. Tax treatment of restaurant revitalization grants................... --- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Estimate to Be Provided By The Congressional Budget Office - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
4. Modification of exceptions for reporting of third party
network transactions [3][12]................................................. [13] --- 146 1,081 751 789 829 870 913 959 1,007 1,057 3,596 7,345 8,403
5. Modification of treatment of student loan forgiveness
(sunset 12/31/25).................................................................. tyba 12/31/20 -1 -8 -8 -9 -9 -9 [6] [6] --- --- --- -43 -44 -44
Total of Miscellaneous Provisions …............................................................... 334 1,415 3,096 3,026 3,163 3,154 3,228 3,298 3,302 3,290 3,384 14,189 27,306 30,690
SUBTITLE H - PENSIONS
A. Relief for Multiemployer Pension Plans............................... various - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Estimate To Be Provided by the Congressional Budget Office- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
B. Relief for Single Employer Pension Plans
1. Extended amortization for single employer plans [3][14]..... pyba 12/31/18 361 508 826 1,191 2,335 1,678 2,819 3,234 3,477 3,346 3,068 6,899 19,775 22,841
2. Extension of pension funding stabilization percentages for
single employer plans [3][15]............................................... pyba 12/31/19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Estimate Included In Item B.1. Above - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
3. Modification of special rules for minimum funding
standards for community newspaper plans [3][16]............... pyea 12/31/17 25 19 24 27 28 31 33 33 32 30 30 154 282 311
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Provision Effective 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2021-26 2021-30 2021-31
4. Deny deduction of compensation in excess of $1
million for eight highest paid employees, plus the CEO
or CFO, at publicly traded companies.................................. tyba 12/31/26 --- --- --- --- --- 11 839 1,693 1,724 1,754 1,785 11 6,020 7,805
Total of Subtitle H - Pensions …............................................................................. 386 527 850 1,218 2,363 1,720 3,691 4,960 5,233 5,130 4,883 7,064 26,077 30,957
NET TOTAL ………………………………………………………………………………… -467,214 -158,705 -5,811 2,000 3,794 3,100 5,533 6,854 7,109 6,961 6,775 -622,835 -596,379 -589,607
Joint Committee on Taxation
--------------------------------------
NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. The date of enactment is assumed to be March 15, 2021. Revenue provisions as submitted in statutory language KIN21174.
Legend for "Effective" column:
apwrt = amounts paid with respect to DOE = date of enactment pyea = plan years ending after
cpo/a = coverage period on or after pia = penalties issued after tyba = taxable years beginning after
cqba = calendar quarters beginning after pyba = plan years beginning after tyea = taxable years ending after
[1] Estimate includes the following budget effects: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2021-26 2021-30 2021-31
Total Revenue Effect........................................................................................................ -26,604 -8,606 116 [5] [5] [5] [5] --- --- --- --- -35,095 -35,094 -35,095
On-budget effects.......................................................................................................... -26,613 -8,576 129 [5] [5] [5] [5] --- --- --- --- -35,060 -35,060 -35,060
Off-budget effects.......................................................................................................... 9 -30 -13 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -34 -34 -34
[2] Estimate provided by the Joint Committee on Taxation staff in collaboration with the Congressional Budget Office.
[3] Estimates contain the following outlay effects: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2021-26 2021-30 2021-31
Preserving health benefits for workers …........................................................................ -1,374 -630 -74 [5] [5] [5] [5] --- --- --- --- -2,077 -2,077 -2,077
Child tax credit - improvements for 2021 (sunset 12/31/21); and application of
child tax credit in possessions……….......................................................................... 19,169 65,186 710 721 725 721 307 311 316 320 323 87,233 88,486 88,809
Strengthening the earned income tax credit for individuals with no qualifying
children (sunset 12/31/21)........................................................................................... --- 9,278 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 9,278 9,278 9,278
Taxpayer eligible for childless earned income credit in case of qualifying children
who fail to meet certain identification requirements.................................................... --- 11 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 16 24 26
Credit allowed in case of certain separated spouses......................................................... --- 18 18 19 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 96 185 210
Modification to disqualified investment income test….................................................... --- 224 141 143 165 164 162 159 159 165 173 837 1,482 1,655
Application of earned income tax credit in possessions of United States......................... --- 738 746 764 781 798 814 831 849 867 885 3,828 7,189 8,074
Refundability and enhancement of child and dependent care tax credit
(sunset 12/31/21) ….................................................................................................... --- 3,752 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 3,752 3,752 3,752
Extension and modification of credits for paid sick and family leave (sunset 9/30/21)… 3,595 614 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 4,209 4,209 4,209
Extension and modification of the employee retention credit …...................................... 1,124 1,014 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2,138 2,138 2,138
Improving affordability by expanding premium assistance for consumers…................... 2,725 14,306 5,203 450 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 22,684 22,684 22,684
Application of premium tax credit in case of individuals receiving unemployment
compensation during 2020…...................................................................................... 1,351 926 149 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2,426 2,426 2,426
Modification of exceptions for reporting of third party network transactions …............. --- --- 40 42 44 46 49 51 54 56 59 173 383 442
Temporary special rule for determining earned income for purposes of earned
income tax credit ….................................................................................................... --- 2,866 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2,866 2,866 2,866
Extended amortization for single employer plans [17] …................................................ -107 -144 -232 -353 -1,124 -93 -917 -1,156 -1,419 -1,643 -1,819 -2,053 -7,188 -9,007
Extension of pension funding stabilization percentages for single employer plans [17]…- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Outlays Included In Item Above - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Modification of special rules for minimum funding standards for community
newspaper plans [17]…............................................................................................... -7 -7 -11 -15 -18 -21 -24 -27 -30 -32 -35 -79 -192 -227
[4] The provision relating to the payroll tax credit applies to premiums to which premium assistance applies and to wages paid on or after April 1, 2021.
[5] Gain of less than $500,000.
[Footnotes for JCX-13-21 continue on following page]
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Footnotes continued for JCX-13-21:
[6] Loss of less than $500,000.
[7] Estimate includes the following budget effects: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2021-26 2021-30 2021-31
Total Revenue Effect........................................................................................................ -78 -39 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -117 -117 -117
On-budget effects.......................................................................................................... -27 -14 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -41 -41 -41
Off-budget effects.......................................................................................................... -51 -25 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -76 -76 -76
[8] With respect to the credit for self-employed individuals, only days occurring during the period beginning on April 1, 2021 and ending on September 30, 2021, may be taken into account for purposes of determining the
qualified sick leave equivalent amount and the qualified family leave equivalent amount.
[9] Estimate includes the following budget effects: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2021-26 2021-30 2021-31
Total Revenue Effect........................................................................................................ -4,137 -22,345 -7,964 -536 23 --- --- --- --- --- --- -34,959 -34,959 -34,959
On-budget effects.......................................................................................................... -4,144 -22,421 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -26,565 -26,565 -26,565
Off-budget effects.......................................................................................................... 7 76 52 10 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 145 145 145
[10] The statute applies in the case of any taxable year beginning in 2020, so the sunset only applies to tax year 2020.
[11] Estimate includes the following budget effects: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2021-26 2021-30 2021-31
Total Revenue Effect........................................................................................................ -2,624 -1,660 -232 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -4,516 -4,516 -4,516
On-budget effects.......................................................................................................... -2,731 -1,767 -257 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -4,755 -4,755 -4,755
Off-budget effects.......................................................................................................... 107 107 25 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 239 239 239
[12] Estimate includes the following budget effects: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2021-26 2021-30 2021-31
Total Revenue Effect........................................................................................................ --- 146 1,081 751 789 829 870 913 959 1,007 1,057 3,596 7,345 8,403
On-budget effects.......................................................................................................... --- 80 572 391 411 431 453 475 499 524 550 1,884 3,836 4,385
Off-budget effects.......................................................................................................... --- 66 509 360 378 397 417 438 460 483 507 1,712 3,508 4,018
[13] The amended de minimis exception applies to returns for calendar years beginning after December 31, 2021. The clarification that reporting is not required on transactions which are not for goods or services applies to transactions
after the date of enactment.
[14] Estimate includes the following budget and outlay effects: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2021-26 2021-30 2021-31
Total Revenue Effect........................................................................................................ 361 508 826 1,191 2,335 1,678 2,819 3,234 3,477 3,346 3,068 6,899 19,775 22,842
On-budget effects.......................................................................................................... 229 312 499 689 973 1,272 1,522 1,644 1,611 1,329 975 3,973 10,080 11,055
Off-budget effects.......................................................................................................... 25 53 95 150 238 312 380 434 447 374 273 873 2,508 2,781
[15] A plan sponsor may elect not to have the amendments made by this section apply to any plan year beginning before January 1, 2022 (either for all purposes or solely for purposes of determining the adjusted funding target
attainment percentage).
[16] Estimate includes the following budget and outlay effects: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2021-26 2021-30 2021-31
Total Revenue Effect........................................................................................................ 25 19 24 27 28 31 33 33 32 30 30 154 281 311
On-budget effects.......................................................................................................... 16 10 11 9 8 8 6 4 [5] -3 -5 61 69 63
Off-budget effects.......................................................................................................... 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 [5] 14 21 21
[17] Estimated changes in premiums provided by the Congressional Budget Office. Premiums rise due to higher plan underfunding; this reduces government spending (negative in footnote [3]) and has the same effect on
the deficit as an increase in revenues (positive in main table).
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