Distributional Impacts of the CARES Act: Online Appendix
Summary
The online appendix to Distributional Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic and the CARES Act, a paper by Guido Matias Cortes of York University and Eliza Forsythe of the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. It consists of eight figures with notes estimating the pandemic's impact across the pre-pandemic earnings distribution, using data from January 2015 to February 2021. The figures cover labor earnings growth, the probability of remaining employed, nominal earnings changes and employment rates by employment history. Several figures add simulated unemployment benefits, including Pandemic Unemployment Compensation of $600 per week, Lost Wage Assistance of $300 per week and American Rescue Plan payments of $300 per week. A final figure splits estimates by education group for the early period of April to July 2020.
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Online Appendix for:
Distributional Impacts of the
Covid-19 Pandemic and the CARES Act
Guido Matias Cortes (York University and IZA)
Eliza Forsythe (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)
1
Figure A.1: Distributional Impact of the Pandemic, Estimated Using Ventile-Specific
Linear Time Trends instead of Ventile-Specific Year Fixed Effects
Panel A: Impact of the Pandemic on Labor Earnings Growth Rates (%)
Early Period (Apr−Jul) Later Period (Aug−Feb)
.2 .2
0 0
−.2 −.2
−.4 −.4
−.6 −.6
−.8 −.8
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Panel B: Impact on Probability of Remaining Employed (Extensive Margin)
Early Period (Apr−Jul) Later Period (Aug−Feb)
0 0
−.1 −.1
−.2 −.2
−.3 −.3
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Panel C: Impact on Earnings Conditional on Remaining Employed (Intensive Margin)
Early Period (Apr−Jul) Later Period (Aug−Feb)
.2 .2
.1 .1
0 0
−.1 −.1
−.2 −.2
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Note: The figure plots estimated coefficients and 95% confidence intervals for the impact of the pandemic throughout the
earnings distribution, based on the estimation of Equation (1), but where the ventile-year fixed effects are replaced by
ventile-specific linear time trends. The estimation uses data from January 2015 to February 2021. The x-axis represents
ventiles of the pre-pandemic earnings distribution (the top and bottom two ventiles are grouped into deciles). The
dependent variable in Panel A is the within-individual percentage change in real weekly earnings for all individuals who
2
were employed in their fourth month-in-sample, including those who transition out of employment (294,123 observations).
Panel B uses the same sample; the dependent variable is the probability of remaining employed between month-in-sample
4 and month-in-sample 8. The sample in Panel C only includes individuals who are employed in both their fourth and
their eighth month-in-sample (264,968 observations). The dependent variable is the within-individual change in log real
weekly earnings.
Figure A.2: Pandemic Impact on Nominal Weekly Earnings Changes
Panel A: Earnings Cut
Early Period (Apr−Jul) Later Period (Aug−Feb)
.2 .2
.1 .1
0 0
−.1 −.1
−.2 −.2
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Panel B: No Change
Early Period (Apr−Jul) Later Period (Aug−Feb)
.05 .05
0 0
−.05 −.05
−.1 −.1
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Panel C: Earnings Increase
Early Period (Apr−Jul) Later Period (Aug−Feb)
.2 .2
.1 .1
0 0
−.1 −.1
−.2 −.2
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Note: The figure plots the estimated coefficients and 95% confidence intervals from Equation (1) using individual-level
data on year-on-year changes in nominal earnings from January 2015 until February 2021. The x-axis represents ventiles
of the pre-pandemic earnings distribution (the top and bottom two ventiles are grouped into deciles). The panels provide
estimates of the impact of the pandemic on the probability of experiencing an earnings cut, an earnings increase, or no
change in earnings, respectively. Earnings cuts and increases are based on changes of at least $10 in weekly earnings. The
sample includes individuals who are employed in both month-in-sample 4 and month-in-sample 8 (264,968 observations).
3
Figure A.3: Change in Employment Rate by Employment History
.2
Change in Employment Rate
−.1 0 .1
−.2
Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020
Total Recently Employed
Not Recently Employed
Note: The figure plots the estimated impact of the pandemic (along with 95% confidence intervals) on the employment
rate for different groups of workers. Recently employed are individuals who were employed at some point in the last
three months, while not recently employed are the balance.
4
Figure A.4: Impact on Year-Over-Year Dollar Change in Labor Earnings and Simulated Benefits, April through August
2020
Panel A: PUC Period (April through July 2020)
Wages + Standard UI + PUA + PUC + PUA + PUC (Adj. for Recipiency)
200 200 200
100 100 100
0 0 0
−100 −100 −100
−200 −200 −200
−300 −300 −300
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
5 Panel B: LWA Period (August 2020)
Wages + Standard UI +PUA + LWA +PUA + LWA (Adj. for Recipiency)
400 400 400
200 200 200
0 0 0
−200 −200 −200
−400 −400 −400
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Note: PUA = Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (eligibility expansion), PUC = Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (additional $600 per week), LWA = Lost
Wage Assistance (additional $300 per week). The figure plots the estimated coefficients and 95% confidence intervals for the changes during the pandemic throughout
the earnings distribution, based on the estimation of Equation (1) using data from January 2015 until February 2021. The x-axis represents ventiles of the pre-pandemic
earnings distribution (the top and bottom two ventiles are grouped into deciles). The dependent variable is the within-individual change in real weekly earnings plus
benefits (dollar amount). Figures in the left column are based on actual earned wages (including zeros) plus estimated standard UI benefits. Figures in the center column
are based on the above plus estimated PUA benefits and weekly top-ups (which vary across periods). Figures in the right column are adjusted for estimated recipiency
rates.
Figure A.5: Impact on Year-Over-Year Dollar Change in Labor Earnings and Simulated Benefits, September 2020 through
February 2021
Panel C: No Top-Up (September through December 2020)
Wages + Standard UI +PUA +PUA (Adj. for Recipiency)
200 200 200
100 100 100
0 0 0
−100 −100 −100
−200 −200 −200
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
6 Panel D: ARP Period (January through February 2021)
Wages + Standard UI +PUA + ARP +PUA + ARP (Adj. for Recipiency)
200 200 200
100 100 100
0 0 0
−100 −100 −100
−200 −200 −200
−300 −300 −300
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Note: PUA = Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (eligibility expansion), ARP = American Rescue Plan (additional $300 per week). The figure plots the estimated
coefficients and 95% confidence intervals for the changes during the pandemic throughout the earnings distribution, based on the estimation of Equation (1) using data
from January 2015 until February 2021. The x-axis represents ventiles of the pre-pandemic earnings distribution (the top and bottom two ventiles are grouped into
deciles). The dependent variable is the within-individual change in real weekly earnings plus benefits (dollar amount). Figures in the left column are based on actual
earned wages (including zeros) plus estimated standard UI benefits. Figures in the center column are based on the above plus estimated PUA benefits and weekly top-ups
(which vary across periods). Figures in the right column are adjusted for estimated recipiency rates.
Figure A.6: Distributional Impacts of UI Policies during the Pandemic Period, April through August 2020 Estimated with
Time Trends
Panel A: PUC Period (April through July 2020)
Wages + Standard UI + PUA + PUC + PUA + PUC (Adj. for Recipiency)
1.5 1.5 1.5
1 1 1
.5 .5 .5
0 0 0
−.5 −.5 −.5
−1 −1 −1
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Panel B: LWA Period (August 2020)
7
Wages + Standard UI +PUA + LWA +PUA + LWA (Adj. for Recipiency)
1 1 1
.5 .5 .5
0 0 0
−.5 −.5 −.5
−1 −1 −1
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Note: PUA = Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (eligibility expansion), PUC = Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (additional $600 per week), LWA = Lost
Wage Assistance (additional $300 per week). The figure plots the estimated coefficients and 95% confidence intervals for the changes during the pandemic throughout the
earnings distribution, based on the estimation of Equation (1), but where the ventile-year fixed effects are replaced by ventile-specific linear time trends. The estimation
uses data from January 2015 to February 2021. The x-axis represents ventiles of the pre-pandemic earnings distribution (the top and bottom two ventiles are grouped
into deciles). The dependent variable is the within-individual percentage change in real weekly earnings plus benefits. Figures in the left column are based on actual
earned wages (including zeros) plus estimated standard UI benefits. Figures in the center column are based on the above plus estimated PUA benefits and weekly top-ups
(which vary across periods). Figures in the right column are adjusted for estimated recipiency rates.
Figure A.7: Distributional Impacts of UI Policies during the Pandemic Period, September 2020 through February 2021
Estimated with Time Trends
Panel C: No Top-Up (September through December 2020)
Wages + Standard UI +PUA +PUA (Adj. for Recipiency)
.2 .2 .2
0 0 0
−.2 −.2 −.2
−.4 −.4 −.4
−.6 −.6 −.6
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Panel D: ARP Period (January through February 2021)
8
Wages + Standard UI +PUA + ARP +PUA + ARP (Adj. for Recipiency)
.5 .5 .5
0 0 0
−.5 −.5 −.5
−1 −1 −1
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Note: PUA = Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (eligibility expansion), ARP = American Rescue Plan (additional $300 per week). The figure plots the estimated
coefficients and 95% confidence intervals for the changes during the pandemic throughout the earnings distribution, based on the estimation of Equation (1), but where
the ventile-year fixed effects are replaced by ventile-specific linear time trends. The estimation uses data from January 2015 to February 2021. The x-axis represents
ventiles of the pre-pandemic earnings distribution (the top and bottom two ventiles are grouped into deciles). The dependent variable is the within-individual percentage
change in real weekly earnings plus benefits. Figures in the left column are based on actual earned wages (including zeros) plus estimated standard UI benefits. Figures
in the center column are based on the above plus estimated PUA benefits and weekly top-ups (which vary across periods). Figures in the right column are adjusted for
estimated recipiency rates.
Figure A.8: Distributional Impact within Education Groups (Early Pandemic Period)
Panel A: Impact on Labor Earnings Growth Rates
Non−College College
.5 .5
0 0
−.5 −.5
−1 −1
−1.5 −1.5
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Panel B: Impact on Total Income including Benefits (Adjusted for Recipiency)
Non−College College
2 2
1.5 1.5
1 1
.5 .5
0 0
−.5 −.5
p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90 p10 p20 p30 p40 p50 p60 p70 p80 p90
Note: The figure plots estimated coefficients and 95% confidence intervals for the impact of the pandemic throughout
the earnings distribution, based on the estimation of Equation (1) using data from January 2015 to February 2021,
estimated separately for individuals who have at most a high school degree (left panels; 95,211 observations) and for
individuals with at least some college education (right panels; 198,912 observations). The x-axis represents ventiles of
the pre-pandemic earnings distribution (the top and bottom two ventiles are grouped into deciles) within each education
group. The dependent variable in Panel A is the within-individual percentage change in real weekly earnings for all
individuals who were employed in their fourth month-in-sample, including those who transition out of employment.
Panel B uses the analogous change when including unemployment benefits and top-ups provided by the CARES Act
and adjusting for recpiency. The estimates are for the early pandemic period (April to July 2020).
9
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