Payments, Processors, & FinTech: If Software Is Eating the World, Payments Is Taking a Bite — Credit Suisse
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Credit Suisse Equity Research Americas report dated 24 January 2020, titled Payments, Processors, & FinTech: If Software Is Eating the World… Payments Is Taking a Bite. The research analysts named on the cover are Timothy E. Chiodo, CFA, Nik Cremo, Justin Forsythe, CPA and Moshe Orenbuch. The table of contents lists a coverage overview, market sizing, subsector themes, valuation, company-specific sections, a private company map, and a Credit Suisse Payments, Processors, & FinTech Top 40 Themes section. The coverage overview describes an initial payments coverage universe of networks, merchant acquirers and bank technology providers, B2B-related businesses and money transfer platforms.
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Payments, Processors, & FinTech
If Software Is Eating the World… 24 January 2020
Payments Is Taking a Bite Equity Research Americas
Research Analysts
Timothy E. Chiodo, CFA Nik Cremo Justin Forsythe, CPA Moshe Orenbuch
+1 415-249-7921 +1 415-249-7922 +1 415-249-7924 21`2-538-6795
timothy.chiodo@credit-suisse.com nikolai.cremo@credit-suisse.com justin.forsythe@credit-suisse.com moshe.orenbuch@credit-suisse.com
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND
THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only
a single factor in making their investment decision.
Payments, Processors, & FinTech
Table of Contents
Payments, Processors, & FinTech Overview 3
Coverage Overview 4
Market Sizing 9
Subsector Themes 12
Valuation 32
Company Specific 39
Private Company Map 52
Credit Suisse Payments, Processors, & FinTech Top 40 Themes 53
Global eCommerce & Software-led Payments (Themes 1-9) 54
NextGen FinTech Ecosystems (Themes 10-18) 91
Drivers of Cash-to-Card Conversion (Themes 19-23) 124
B2B/Corporate Payments (Themes 24-26) 149
Back-End Banking Innovation (Themes 27-30) 159
Regulation & Litigation (Themes 31-35) 190
Threats to Monitor for the Existing Ecosystem (Themes 36-40) 204
Industry Primer 224
Appendix 240
Credit Suisse Payments Innovation Event Series 258
2
Payments, Processors, & FinTech coverage overview
Networks, merchant acquirers, bank tech, B2B-related, and money transfer
The initial payments coverage universe consists of networks (V and MA, co-covered with Moshe
Orenbuch), merchant acquirers & bank technology providers (GPN, FISV, FIS, PYPL, SQ, and RPAY),
B2B-related businesses (FLT, WEX, and VRRM), and money transfer platforms (WU and IMXI).
Merchant acquirers (including
B2B-related businesses and Money transfer
Global payments networks MSP, PSP, etc.) & bank
payments networks (international remittances)
technology providers
Source: Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 3
Payments, Processors, & FinTech company reports
Links to our detailed company-specific reports
Visa (V): Expanding moats of the 4-party model -- Co-covered with Moshe Orenbuch
Mastercard (MA): Expanding moats of the 4-party model -- Co-covered with Moshe Orenbuch
PayPal (PYPL): The best way to win a fight…Is not to get into a fight
Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): Accelerating at scale
Fiserv (FISV): Scale begets scale
Global Payments (GPN): In all the right swim lanes
Square (SQ): Square stands apart; ecosystem scaling
FleetCor Technologies (FLT): King of the Cross-Sell
Western Union (WU): The traditional money remittance power
WEX (WEX): Operating in attractive FinTech swim lanes
Verra Mobility (VRRM): Market leader in tolling payments processing and traffic safety solutions
Repay (RPAY): Integrated payments platform serving niche (but expanding) verticals
International Money Express (IMXI): Focused competitor gaining share in important remittance corridors
Source: Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 4
Payments, Processors, & FinTech coverage & ratings
8 Outperform, 3 Neutral, 1 Underperform
Market Market
Ticker Company Name CS Rating CS Target Brief take on stock
Cap ($b) Price
US contactless rollout likely to benefit V to a greater extent vs. MA (due to mix); Emphasis on attracting new payments flows onto both card and
V Visa, Inc. $459 OP $205 $228
non-card rails (Visa Direct + Earthport, efforts in both cross-border and B2B, recently announced [pending] acquistion of Plaid)
Higher exposure to faster growth international markets; Acquisitions (Vocalink, Transfast, Nets, Transactis) support multi-rail approach, B2B
MA Mastercard, Inc. $330 OP $324 $350
(Mastercard Track), and bill-pay (Mastercard Bill Pay Exchange); Maestro card conversions
Share gainer & eCommerce pure-play with a long list of nascent areas of upside (i.e., Braintree becoming more global, Venmo flipping to EPS
PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. $140 OP $116 $135
boost, partnerships [MELI, Uber], bill-pay, China, iZettle, Honey), eBay manageable
Fidelity National
Expectation for accelerating topline in 2020, 2021, and possibly 2022, rare; ~45% of merchant acquiring in global eComm & ISV; Two deals
FIS Information Services, $91 OP $147 $170
worth of revenue synergies in 2020; Longer-term in-store expansion in new countries
Inc.
FDC undervalued thesis now validated by market (valuation); Exposure to attractive swim lanes (ISV, eCommerce International) albeit at lower levels
FISV Fiserv, Inc. $84 NEUTRAL $121 $133
of total revenue vs. Outperform-rated acquirers; GBS tougher compares ahead (following impressive acceleration in 2019)
Highest relative exposure to the fastest growing channels (owned & partnered software, global eCommerce/Omni channel with local support in 33
GPN Global Payments, Inc. $60 OP $199 $230
markets); Leading credit issuer processor via TSYS; Potential for more bank/JV partnerships
Intersection of software + payments, "3x recycling"; Sentiment and number reset ahead of analyst day in March; Two recent price increases help
SQ Square, Inc. $33 OP $69 $84
alleviate a degree of the investment pressures (e.g., ~50bps on Instant Transfer)
FleetCor Technologies, Fuel, Corporate Payments, Lodging, & Tolls all recurring revenue, high margin, network effects, similar distribution; Best at cross-sell & accretive
FLT $28 NEUTRAL $310 $335
Inc. M&A ("Beyond Fuel latest example); Valuation recovered in 2019 (vs. 2017 and 2018 levels) with a return to LDD organic growth in fuel segment
Valuation at a meaningful premium to historical averages, dividend (~3%) at low end of range; Market digested recent good news ($150mm cost
WU The Western Union Co. $12 UP $28 $26
savings, 3-year targets/guidance); Competition from traditional & FinTechs; Platform/asset value & online white labelling supportive of value
Company noted beginning Q2 2020 will lap Chevron and Shell portfolio conversions (currently contributing a ~600bps boost to Fleet segment
WEX WEX, Inc. $10 R $226 -
revenue growth), also we note the recent weakness in SSS at -2.5% in Q3 2019
Positive on the moats and sustained mid-single digit+ growth (guidance Government +2-4%, Commercial +6-8%, + boost via M&A, Europe, and
VRRM Verra Mobility Corp. $2.5 OP $15.3 $17.5
new initiatives); Awaiting further detail on timing/execution of ramp in Europe (recent acquistion of Pagetelia potential to improve timeline)
Integrated payments in niche verticals; Increasing debit penetration in core verticals, adding verticals, new merchants & ISV partners as drivers
RPAY Repay Holdings Corp. $0.9 OP $16 $19
(organic ~mid-teens + M&A, e.g., B2B and Healthcare)
International Money Operates within a large TAM, share gainer, and numerous nascent initiatives (Africa, Canada, white labeling with Latin American banks, GPR
IMXI $0.5 NEUTRAL $12 $14.5
Express, Inc. cards); Mexico & Guatemala concentration (volatile data/end-market); Await further clarity on 2020 outlook given recent data points
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 5
Payments, Processors, & FinTech coverage overview
Top Pick: Global Payments (GPN), stable large-cap growth
Top Pick Rationale Catalyst Path
~22% EPS CAGR (2019-221E), supported by business mix analysis suggesting organic ex-FX Potential vertical software M&A
revenue growth ~8-11% medium-term (plus M&A), along with ~200bps annual margin (late 2020 return)
expansion (including ~$325mm in guided cost synergies). New and/or expanded partners
Global Payments and client wins
Highest relative exposure to the fastest growing channels: 1) ~37% owned & partnered
(Outperform,
software growing ~10-14%; 2) ~17% global eCommerce & omnichannel growing ~15-18%; Initial 2020 guidance (expect low
$230 TP)
3) ~20% International growing ~10%+; and 4) an emphasis on SMB and multi-nationals. end of “high single to low double
Leading credit issuer processor with dominant share in the US, UK, Ireland, Canada, and China digits” topline)
(+5-7% growth vs. industry +3%); improved ability to win bank partnerships and joint ventures. Synergy target increase
Added Outperform
Rationale Catalyst Path
Highlights
Intersection of software & payments, with two ecosystems (Seller & Cash App), with ability to March 2020 analyst day
launch and quickly scale new products (e.g., launched Cash Card late 2017, already at
Instant Transfer price increase
~$230mm in annual revenue in 2019E by our estimates).
Square ability to offset entire incremental
Attractive set up for 2020 (coming off 2019 transition year) with its initial guide out of the way, marketing & new office
(Outperform,
two recent pricing actions (in-store processing, Instant Transfer), and a March analyst day to
$84 TP) 2H 2020 GPV stabilization
bridge gap until we begin to see benefits from re-investment (late 2020 and 2021).
New product launches
$75mm investment in numbers (marketing, salesforce, hardware), which we expect to add
~$4b+ 2021E GPV – we model stabilization (mid-20%s) in 2H 2020. Updated Cash App user #
Near pure-play on eCommerce, with a ~$4-5tr “True TAM” inclusive of global eCommerce,
Additional partnerships
eTravel, eFood delivery, eTicketing, online charitable donations, ride-sharing, etc. - provides
announcements
confidence in the persistence of growth and annual compounding.
PayPal Venmo-related (Pay with Venmo,
We forecast Venmo to exit 2020 at a ~$900mm revenue run rate and reach profitability in 2021
(Outperform, credit card, Honey integration,
(and become a 3% EPS benefit, up from a 3% drag in 2020E).
$135 TP) updated user #, etc.)
Potential areas of upside: Bill-pay (Paymentus), iZettle (offline), new marketplaces, high-growth
New markets and/or acceptance
emerging markets investments (Uber, MercardoLibre, GoPay in 2019), engagement (Pay with
methods for Braintree
Rewards), Honey, and M&A.
24 January 2020 6
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates
2019 recap…
“Mega-mergers”, increasing valuations, & FinTech advancement
2019 saw three large mergers combining merchant acquiring businesses with bank technology providers, numerous premier
FinTechs continue to scale, and more announcements from BigTech
Three mega-mergers (GPN-TSS, FISV-FDC, FIS-WP)
Consolidation
GPN, FISV, MA, WU best performing stocks of 2019, while SQ was a laggard
Premier private Financing rounds and increasing valuations (e.g., Stripe ~$35b, Paytm ~$16b, Nubank ~$10b, Marqeta ~$1.9b, Plaid
FinTechs scale ~$2.65b [acquired by Visa for $5.3b in Q1 2020], Affirm ~$2.9b, Chime ~$5.8b), along with Bill.com’s successful IPO
Apple Card/Apple Pay critical mass Paytm in India expanding to 7mm+ merchants,
launching banking product
Google Checking + hired Bill Ready (PayPal)
BigTech & FinTech Challenger banks global expansion takes hold (Revolut,
Facebook Pay across properties (FB, Instagram) Monzo, N26 launch in US), and Nubank’s expansion in
moves
Affirm announced “Anywhere” Latin America
Alipay continued expansion outside China (US, Europe) Uber Money launched
100% 2018 Total Return 2019 Total Retun
85% 77%
70% 59% 62%
57% 55% 57%
55% 50% 48%
43% 43%
37%
40% 29% 31%
25%
25% 16% 14% 10% 12% 12%
10% 3% 1%
-5%
-3% -1% -4%
-20% -7%
V MA PYPL FIS FISV GPN SQ FLT WEX VRRM RPAY WU IMXI SP50
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 7
…and expectations for 2020
“Big three” mergers of 2019 give way to progress on nascent initiatives
Some of our expectations for 2020 are for more M&A (bolt-on acquisitions with an emphasis on merchant acquiring), card
networks progress on now nascent initiatives, and increasing efforts by BigTech in FinTech
Digest recent mergers (integration) 1H 2020
Bolt-on M&A returns
2H 2020 Potential return to acquisitions 2H 2020 with an emphasis on merchant acquiring (fastest growing sub-
segment within FISV, FIS, and GPN) and FinTech platforms (leveraging distribution reach)
Card network progress Contactless cards could reach ~40% of US cardholders by year-end 2020
on contactless, new Visa Direct/Mastercard Send, bill-pay efforts, and more B2B automation
payment flows, SRC
button, and FinTech SRC rollout gains steam in 2020 after soft launch in Q4 2019
partnerships Continue to help FinTechs scale, ensuring their positions in the ecosystem (e.g. Visa – Plaid)
Square touching on “horizon three” at March investor day (one is scale, two is lifting attach rates, and
Square strategy updates
three is bringing the two ecosystems [Seller & Cash App] together)
Continued efforts from BigTech to drive adoption of their payments offerings to reduce checkout friction
and increase commerce on their platforms: Instagram shopping, Google Commerce, and more launches
Increasing focus from from Apple (growth priority)
and partnerships with
BigTech We note 17% of European bankers view BigTech as the single biggest threat to their business (#2 overall
behind regulation), ahead of FinTech at 15% given their established customer relationships, large user
bases, brand recognition, and technical talent (Tink)
Source: Company reports, A.T. Kearny, Credit Suisse estimates. 24 January 2020 8
Global payments volume TAM is bigger than global GDP
First ingredient to an investment thesis…
Entire coverage universe is in some way exposed to secular trends toward digitization of payments.
Global payments volume (~$240tr) is bigger than global GDP (~$85tr) because multiple payments are
made for the same level of output or production.
While a meaningful opportunity remains in the US and Europe, faster-growth markets are in
Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and parts of Central / Eastern Europe.
Total card volume (Visa, Mastercard, and numerous local schemes)
Global payments TAM (total addressable market), across carded,
are expected to deliver ~5-14% CAGRs (2019-2023E), with APAC,
ACH, and cash & check totals to ~$240tr, with only ~13% carded
LatAm, and Eastern Europe as faster-growth geographies
1
$61tr $235tr 16%
13 14%
14%
48 68
$125tr 12%
10%
38 10% 9%
87%
Un-carded 8%
opportunity 6%
139 6% 5%
84
1
$50tr 4%
2
17 2%
72
28 30 0%
APAC Latin America Eastern Western US
PCE B2B / G2B P2P / B2C / G2C Total Europe Europe
Carded ACH Cash & Check
Source: Mastercard, Euromonitor forecast (bottom right chart), Credit Suisse estimates
(1) Includes $12T of non-purchase consumption; (2) Includes $13T of non-PCE card purchases in China 24 January 2020 9
US Payments addressable market
Large TAM driven by PCE growth + cash-to-card conversion
Our industry model (card volumes/penetration vs. adjusted PCE + cash-to-card penetration) suggests continued HSD
volume growth should persist through at least 2023.
We model V & MA US volumes combining for ~59% of adjusted PCE by 2023E (vs. ~49% today).
Our confidence is driven by nascent TAM-expansive payment flows beyond traditional consumer-to-business retail
payments (i.e., beyond PCE), particularly push-to-card (priced to attract interchange-sensitive payment flows) and B2B.
The US payments market has a large TAM, estimated at ~$50tr in Our industry model is built based on a combination of US PCE growth +
volumes when viewed in its entirety (PCE, B2B, G2B, P2P, B2C, and cash-to-card penetration increases; we note that V & MA combined
G2C), with ~50%+ of consumer payments penetrated and ~5% of B2B represent ~70-80% of US volumes
14%
$19tr $50tr
12% 11.5%
5
10.0%
16 10% 9.5% 9.3% 9.1%
9.1% 8.8%
13 8.5%
$22tr 8% 6%
86%
5%
Un-carded 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
8 6%
opportunity
27 4%
12
$10tr 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%
2% 4% 4%
1
3
2 0%
5 7
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
PCE B2B / G2B P2P / B2C / G2C Total
Carded ACH Cash & Check PCE growth Penetration driven growth
Source: Company reports, Mastercard, FactSet, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Euromonitor, Credit Suisse
24 January 2020 10
estimates. There are rounding differences in both B2B and P2P bars in US TAM graph
US Payments market revenue pools
Merchant discount rate components (opportunity for acquirers, networks, & issuers)
US payment card volumes are approaching $8tr in total, with the vast majority touching Visa and/or Mastercard networks.
Visa and Mastercard are not the largest revenue beneficiaries though – banks are (the card issuers themselves), with card
issuers earning interchange on each transaction equivalent to ~130bps on average (vs. Visa and Mastercard earning
network yields that come to roughly ~26bps).
Additional revenue opportunities include software, working capital, payroll, issuer processing, security, loyalty, etc.
Visa and Mastercard-branded card make up more than 70% of all US …but card issuing banks (which earn interchange) earn the majority
payments volumes (credit, debit, pre-paid)… of revenue made on a given transaction (excluding interest income)
Prepaid cards Regulated Merchant
4% debit acquirers
EFT networks interchange 13%
8% Visa credit 9%
26% Card networks
Mastercard (V, MA)
debit 11%
10%
American
Credit Express
Visa debit Mastercard Interchange 13%
25% credit 40%
12%
Discover
American 2%
Private label Express
credit cards Discover 10% Dubrin-exempt
3% 2% debit interchange
12%
Source: Company reports, The Nilson Report (US Purchase Volume from The Nilson Report for 2018 base, and 2019E
represents Credit Suisse estimates), The Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 11
Merchant Acquiring: SMB is where the money is at
SMB segment ~17% of volumes, but ~55% of revenue in US market
Often operate with bundled pricing models, with simple, rack-rate pricing (e.g., 2.6% + $0.10 for Square), which when combined
with scale and interchange optimization, can result in net revenue yields ~40-140bps (vs. low-single-digit yields for large merchants)
Less likely to be commoditized with bundling of vertical software embedded into operations (e.g., Square recently increased price)
SMB merchant attrition is higher; ~20% of micro merchants fail per year1 vs. LSD for larger merchants
Opportunity to expand beyond payments (e.g., capital/cash advances, website design, CRM/marketing tools, payroll, etc.)
~$7.5tr in US card volumes (2019E), of which ~$1.3tr is from SMB and micro merchants, which despite making up just ~17%
of volumes, account for ~55% of the acquiring/processing revenue opportunity
“…First of all, we stick to our
~1-10bps net yield =
knitting and we focus really ~20k mega merchants ~$3.2tr card volumes
$1b+ revenue
~$100mm+
on SMBs in a given country.
So as good a company as
Amazon is, we're not ~10-40bps net yield = ~1mm mid-market larger
~$1mm - ~$3tr
interested in Amazon, right? $7.5b+ revenue merchants
$100mm card volumes
So for us to be a
commoditized provider…no
~40-100bps net yield = ~$850b
contracts, 30-day outs, no $6b+ revenue ~3mm SMB card
~$250k - $1mm
minimums, no service, low volumes
fee. Why is that interesting?”
– Jeffrey Sloan, CEO, GPN ~80-120bps net yield = ~$450b
Less than $250k annual ~20mm Micro merchants
(May 15, 2019) $4.5b+ revenue revenue
Source: 1Small Business Administration, Company reports, Square, US Census, Credit Suisse estimates, US General Purpose
Card Volume from The Nilson Report for 2018 base, and 2019E represents Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 12
Merchant Acquiring: Software & eCommerce fast-growth channels
Want exposure to companies positioned to deliver tech-enabled payments
Technology-enabled payments (software-led and eCommerce-related channels) is not a new trend, but it remains a powerful one, with software-led
channels growing ~2x the overall market (~4-5x traditional channels) and eCommerce ex-Amazon growing ~2-3x traditional.
Share gainers will be payment providers with the best exposure to these channels (own the technology to serve, with business mix skewed toward these
faster-growth swim lanes, along with the scale and resources required to keep up with increasing complexity and competition).
Amazon makes up ~35% of US retail eCommerce (and ~55%+ of growth), a portion of payments that is less addressable for the majority of payments
companies and with the lowest unit economics for acquirers – for this reason, we separate the remaining portion of eCommerce, which we define as eTail
ex-Amazon (i.e., retail eCommerce for SMB and non-Amazon merchants) and other online commerce (e.g., eFood delivery, ride-sharing, online travel, etc.).
Further, a large portion of the remaining eCommerce volume runs through marketplaces (~50% of eCommerce globally) and multi-national companies
(e.g., Uber, Netflix), placing additional emphasis on global & cross-border eCommerce & omnichannel capabilities for merchant acquirers.
We estimate that US payments volumes are still ~2/3rds traditional, Software-led payments (~2x+ industry growth rates, or ~4x+
with ~15% software-led and ~24% eCommerce-related (across traditional channels) is the most attractive vertical in the US market,
Amazon and other non-Amazon online channels) along with eCommerce ex-Amazon – 2019-2023E CAGRs below
Software-led, 20% ~19%
15% ~17%
18%
16%
14%
Amazon, 3%
12% ~11% ~10%
~10%
10%
8%
Traditional, eTail ex-
61% Amazon, 5% 6%
~3%
4%
2%
Other
0%
eComm, 16% Software-led eCommerce Amazon eTail ex- Other eComm Traditional
(total) Amazon
Source: Company reports, US General Purpose Card Volume from The Nilson Report for 2018 base, and 2019E represents
Credit Suisse estimates, BCG, AZ Payments, eMarketer, 2019 Federal Reserve Payments Study; Software-led defined as 24 January 2020 13
integrated payments sold through owned or partnered software platforms typically to small or medium-sized businesses.
Merchant Acquiring: Software & eCommerce fast-growth channels
Most attractive swim lanes in the US are Software-led & eComm ex-Amazon
We expect the majority of all growth in the US payments market will accrue to Software-led and eCommerce channels
(we note the increasing importance of omnichannel capabilities capturing this growth).
We forecast traditional payments (i.e., brick on counter and/or large merchant contracted separately) to cede ~10%
share by 2023E, with more than half benefiting software-led channels (i.e., owned software-led platforms like Square
and ISV-partnered integrated payments; gaining ~6%, going from ~15% to 21% share) and the remainder going to
eCommerce payments channels (gaining ~3%, going from ~24% to ~27%).
Our US payments market estimates suggest that traditional payments, which still make up the vast majority of all volumes, will cede
share to software-led channels (i.e., owned & ISV-partnered) and eCommerce (including digitized payments outside retail)
100%
90%
80%
54% 52%
70% 59% 56%
63% 61%
67% 65% Traditional
60%
50% Other eComm
40% 17%
17% eTail ex-Amazon
17%
17%
30% 16% 16%
15% 6%
15% 5% 5%
5% 4% 4% Amazon
20% 5% 5% 3%
5% 3% 3%
5% 2%
2% 2%
10% 18% 20% 21%
14% 15% 17% Software-led
12% 13%
0%
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Source: Company reports, The Nilson Report, BCG, AZ Payments, eMarketer, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 14
Merchant Acquiring: Software-led in two flavors – owned and partnered
Both support SMB access, cross-selling opportunities, and reduced attrition
Results in a highly recurring revenue streams with reduced attrition, and the potential “…as we drive deeper into software & more
for higher margins (i.e., distribution leverage – “acquire the merchant once, sell the integrated, the attrition fundamentals…are
merchant many times”, including additional ancillary products and services such as significantly better…once you're tied into the
working capital loans, payroll processing, invoicing, etc.). underlying software environment…it's hard to see
people leaving…but I think to say those channels are
Payments and software companies often strive to work with the same underlying
in the single digits is probably a good estimate of
merchants (SMB and mid-market, higher net revenue yields vs. larger merchants). where we see attrition rates in the sort of integrated
Makes sense for payments and software to work together given payments data is and sort of the owned software markets.”
valuable for decision making and planning (customer preferences, inventory – Cameron Bready, CFO (currently COO),
planning, cash flow management), making the offering less commoditized. Global Payments (March 2018)
Platforms that combine payments + software (both owned and ISV We estimate ~32% of Square’s total company revenue will come from
partnered approaches) benefit from meaningfully reduced attrition, additional seller services (e.g., Capital, payroll, Instant Deposit, Business
particularly impressive given SMB skew of these channels debit, additional paid software, online store, etc.) by 2023E
25% 35%
30%
~Low-mid 20%s 30%
20% 27%
~16% 25% 24%
~15%
15% 20%
~12% 19%
20% 17%
10% ~9%
15%
~5%
5% 10%
0% 5%
Global Global Global Square First Data SMB Acquiring
Payments Payments Payments direct channel industry average 0%
owned-software ISV partner Relationship-led 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 15
Merchant Acquiring: eCommerce & Omnichannel drive share gains
Increasing consolidation of relationships around fewer (~3-5) scaled platforms
We expect larger merchants (including marketplaces) to increasingly
“…It's not unusual for a large global retailer to be
consolidate their payments relationships around fewer globally-scaled managing 30 to 60 and sometimes 100-plus
platforms that can provide local acquiring both online and in-store across contracts and partners…It is not unusual for a large
the majority of the merchant’s geographic footprint. international company to be eliminating potentially
dozens of different partners and integrate one
Share gaining platforms will allow for a single (or few) integration(s) to implementation across all of those regions with one
access local acquiring and consumer experiences (including local set of contracts and one solution…”
payments methods, both card and non-card), leading to higher
– Brian Dammeir Head of Product, Adyen
authorization rates, increased conversion, and reduced costs (April 2019)
(interchange, network fees, fraud).
Global eCommerce is about ~80% domestic and ~20% cross-border; Global eCommerce is a fast-growth swim lane (~17% CAGR 2019-2023E),
within cross-border, ~2/3rds are done via Marketplaces (and a meaningful with the cross-border component growing ~25%+ (with an even faster-
portion of the remainder is via larger multi-national merchants) growth sub-component, cross-border on Marketplaces, is growing ~27%)
$8.0
Non-Marketplace $7.0 Global eCommerce ex-CB
$6.7tr
~33%
CB Marketplaces $5.8tr
$6.0
CB ex Marketplaces $5.0tr $1.3tr
Global $5.0 $1.0tr
$4.2tr
eCommerce Cross- $0.8tr
$4.0 $3.5tr
(ex-CB) border $0.6tr
$2.9tr
~80% ~20% $3.0 $0.5tr
$2.4tr
$1.9tr $0.4tr $4.9tr
$2.0 $4.4tr
$3.9tr
$3.3tr
$2.8tr
$1.0 $1.9tr $2.4tr
$1.5tr
Marketplace ~67% $0.0
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Source: Company reports, Worldpay, eMarketer, Forrester Research, Zion Market Research, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 16
Merchant Acquiring: International exposure supports growth
Faster-growing underlying markets with lower penetration
Faster-growth international markets, often in earlier stages of the secular cash- “…We expect continued growth and expansion into
to-card conversion (e.g. APAC, Latin America, and Central / Eastern Europe). faster-growth markets. Most of our peers are in just a
handful of geographies, just 1 geography, or are brand-
Processing in-store payments for domestic merchants requires local acquiring
new entrants into just a couple of markets. We should
capabilities (owned or sponsored licensing), local support staff, local knowledge, also think…about…the nature of how we compete
relationships with regulators, local payments methods, local language, etc. globally…we provide a unified, seamless managerial
The ability to handle both in-store and eCommerce (omnichannel) is a operating in technology environment worldwide. Many of
differentiator, better positioning acquirers to win multi-national merchant our competitors have multiple platforms - we do not. …”
contracts (e.g., Global Payments won Citi for global eCommerce & omnichannel – Jeffrey Sloan, CEO, Global Payments
for Citi’s multinational banking clients on this basis). (March 2018)
Illustrative of the benefits of gaining exposure to faster-growth Global Payments, Worldpay, and First Data (Fiserv) have broad global
geographies; Mastercard achieved ~75% of its growth from international, coverage (e.g., Global Payments provides local acquiring in 58 markets,
only 65% of its total, and grew~1.6x domestic volumes in 2018 including 33 with domestic in-store processing and local support)
US Latin America Europe Canada APMEA 70
15% 58 58
60
13% 13% ~50-55
4% 12% 50
10% 4% 3%
1% 3% 40 ~30-35
33
2% 1% 1%
1% 30
1% 6%
5% 5% 4% 20
4%
10 6
4% 3% 3% 3%
2%
0
2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E First Data (Fiserv) Worldpay (FIS) Global Payments
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 17
Merchant Acquiring: Channel and business mix matter
Estimated revenue exposure within merchant acquiring business segments
Software-led
Provider (owned and/or eCommerce SMB International Comment/Description
partnered, iPOS)
Owned (e.g., AdvancedMD) and partnered (OpenEdge integrated payments)
Global
~37% ~17% ~80% ~20% approach to software, along with a leading global eComm & Omnichannel
Payments
business processing in-store domestic, with local support in 33 markets.
Includes a leading global eCommerce acquiring businesses, along with a
FIS
~20% ~25% ~60-65% ~15%+ leading integrated payments offering (Mercury); Revenue recognition based
(Worldpay)
on home country of merchant, understating International.
Software-led includes both Clover iPOS offering and ISV/integrated
Fiserv payments business (CardConnect & BluePay), which has a slight degree of
~12% ~14% >50% ~24%
(First Data) overlap; SMB relationships are via Clover, Partner Solutions (ISV, agent,
ISO), referral partners (bank and non-bank), and JV alliances.
Pure-play eCommerce, although iZettle represents offline expansion,
software-led payments (owned software-led iPOS); As of 2015, large
PayPal ~1-2% ~98-99% ~65-70% ~47%
merchant mix was ~46% of volume (we assume an increase, and factor in
P2P volume, pricing, and OVAS revenue).
Pure-play integrated payments, with ~½ volumes integrated with ISV
partners and ½ directly into merchant systems; Top 10 clients account for
Repay ~100% ~0%* >60% ~1%
~30% of revenue; Majority of payments made online or via phone, although
we categorize as software-led vs. eCommerce.
Horizontal software, with select vertical-specific solutions; Assumes ~1/2 of
Square ~95% ~1-3% ~90% ~5% Mid-Market sellers are SMB (by volume), remainder are larger (e.g., Shake
Shack, Washington Nationals, Blue Bottle, etc.).
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates; Percentages are estimates (not precise, disclosed figures)
of revenue mix within acquiring businesses for GPN, FISV, & FIS and based on Credit Suisse definitions of the 24 January 2020 18
categories, acknowledging a degree of overlap and blurring among various channels
Merchant Acquiring: If these platforms gain share, who will lose it?
Hundreds of sub-scale, country/regional, and local bank-owned acquirers
Rank Acquirer Country Transactions (mil.) Acquirer Country Transactions (mil.) Acquirer Country Transactions (mil.)
1 Worldpay Group 35,235 51 BS Payone Germany 1,175 101 BB&T US 247
2 JPMC Group 25,610 52 UniCredit Group Italy 1,111 102 Vakifbank Turkey 246
3 BAMS Group 17,701 53 Lloyds Bank Cardnet MS UK 1,081 103 Nedbank South Africa 235
4 First Data Group 17,053 54 Aeon Financial Services Japan 1,056 104 Tinkoff Bank Russia 232
5 Sberbank Russia 14,372 55 Raiffeisen Bank Austria 1,013 105 Sayan Card Iran 220
6 Global Payments Group 13,187 56 Yapi Kredi Bank Turkey 974 106 Electronic Payments US 215
7 Barclays Group 7,930 57 T Isbank Turkey 958 107 QNB Finansbank Turkey 211
8 China UMS China 7,770 58 Pasargad Elec Payment Iran 931 108 Al Rajhi Bank Saudi Arabia 206
9 Citi Merchant US 7,564 59 PrivatBank Ukraine 901 109 T.C Ziraat Bankasi Turkey 199
10 Wells Fargo US 7,416 60 Desjardins (Monetico) Canada 892 110 Sepehr Electronic Paymt Iran 199
11 Cielo Group 7,022 61 StoneCo Brazil 890 111 Clearent US 197
12 Elavon Group 6,147 62 Ingenico Payment Services Germany 875 112 Kasikornbank Thailand 194
13
14
BC Card
Rede
South Korea
Brazil
5,192
4,437
63
64
Paysafe
Fanava Card
Merchant acquirers (and MSP, PSP, etc.) outside The Nilson
US
Iran
793
775
113 Piraeus Bank
114 Denizbank
Greece
Turkey
193
190
15
16
Behpardakht Mellat
Moneris Solutions
Iran
Canada
4,393
3,954
65
66
Credit Saison
Banco de Sabadell
Group’s global top 25 handle ~30% of transactions and a higher
Japan
Spain
759
733
115 Alpha Bank
116 Nuvei Technologies
Greece
US
188
185
17
18
Credit Agricole
Credit Mutuel
France
France
3,613
3,611
67
68
Market Pay
percentage of revenue (larger merchants are more likely to work
First National Bank
France
South Africa
710
689
117 NCCC
118 Alfa Bank
Taiwan
Russia
184
184
19
20
Saman e-Pay
Nets
Iran
Denmark
3,603
3,579
69
70
Akbank
Concardis with larger merchant acquirers)
Turkey
Germany
662
655
119 National Bank
120 Card Complete
Greece
Austria
180
175
21 Worldline France 3,478 71 No. American Bancard US 599 121 Turk Ekonomi Bankasi Turkey 167
22 Asan Pardakht Persian Iran 3,156 72 Gazprombank Russia 590 122 Intuit US 165
23
24
KB Kookmin
Swedbank Group
South Korea
Sweden
3,149
3,124
73
74
Merrick Bank
Handelsbanken And while there are numerous share gainers outside of the largest
US
Sweden
588
568
123 Bancolombia
124 Mashreq Bank
Colombia
UAE
165
164
acquirers (e.g., those operating in a sub-segment or niche with
25 JCB Japan 3,083 75 Priority Payment Systems US 537 125 SBI Payment Services India 164
26 EVO Group 3,030 76 PNC Merchant Services US 535 126 Borgun Iceland 161
vertical expertise have a unique technology or distribution
27 Parsian E-Commerce Iran 2,910 77 La Banque Postale France 528 127 Gravity Payments US 155
28 Santander Group 2,856 78 SunTrust Merchant Services US 516 128 Titanium Payments US 154
relationship), we expect an increasing trend toward consolidation
29 BBVA Group 2,610 79 Bambora Sweden 514 129 Orient Corporation Japan 149
30 ANZ Group 2,355 80 BAC Credomatic Group 504 130 BNL Positivity Italy 148
31 Westpac Australia 2,158 81 Unicre Portugal 501 131 KeyBank US 146
32 BPCE France 2,014 82 Wirecard via both organic share gains and M&A
Singapore 500 132 First Abu Dhabi Bank UAE 142
33 Iran Kish Credit Card Iran 1,894 83 Standard Bank South Africa 458 133 FIS US 141
34 Commonwealth Australia 1,878 84 Bankia Spain 445 134 Hang Seng Hong Kong 132
35 BNP Paribas France 1,844 85 Banorte Mexico 417 135 National Comml Saudi Arabia 130
36 TSYS US 1,802 86 Evertec Group Puerto Rico 410 136 i3 Verticals US 128
37 Societe Generale France 1,648 87 CSOB Czech Republic 406 137 Bank Mandiri Indonesia 126
38 Intesa Sanpaolo Italy 1,636 88 Redwood Merchant Services US 405 138 Paya US 126
39 Samsung Card South Korea 1,617 89 Russian Standard Russia 402 139 BankCard Services US 119
40 Nexi Payments Italy 1,598 90 VisaNet Peru 397 140 Payroc US 112
41 Mitsubishi UFJ Nicos Japan 1,541 91 Shift4Payments US 385 141 United Merchant Services US 111
42 Hyundai Card South Korea 1,535 92 Pardakht Novin Arian Iran 330 142 Millennium BCP Portugal 110
43 Transbank Chile 1,530 93 Valitor Iceland 326 143 SABB Saudi Arabia 107
44 TD Merchant Solutions Group 1,452 94 CTBC Taiwan 307 144 KB Smart Pay Czech Republic 105
45 National Australia Bank Australia 1,384 95 First American Payment Systems US 304 145 CardNet Dominican Republic 104
46 Prisma Med. De Pago Argentina 1,373 96 Vero Brazil 302 146 HDFC India 103
47 VTB Bank Russia 1,362 97 T. Halk Bankasi Turkey 295 147 Promsvyazbank Russia 100
48 Sadad Informatics Iran 1,253 98 Network International UAE 295 148 Banco Davivienda Colombia 98
49 PagSeguro Brazil 1,235 99 Swiss Post Switzerland 264 149 Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia 88
50 Garanti Bank Turkey 1,228 100 SEB Group Estonia 253 150 Provredna Banka Croatia 88
Source: The Nilson Report, First Data estimates include JV proportionate share of transactions (BAMS, Wells Fargo, Citi, 24 January 2020 19
Santander, BBVA, PNC, Cardnet), Credit Suisse research estimates
Merchant Acquiring: Share remains fragmented
Combination of M&A and organic share gains will drive further consolidation
Share remains fragmented beyond the top five, with no others exceeding ~2-3% - many of which are regional or bank-owned (which we
expect to struggle to keep pace with innovation and merchant needs relative to well-capitalized, globally-scaled platforms).
As a result, we expect a combination of M&A and organic share gains (due to scale, increased need to invest in technology, innovation, etc.)
for globally-scaled acquirers; from 2015 to 2018, the top five acquirers gained ~500bps in acquiring share (by transactions).
We expect the three recently merged, scaled platforms (Fiserv-First Data, FIS-Worldpay, Global Payments-TSYS), all with annual free cash
flow in the $3-5b+ range, to resume acquisitions with an emphasis on merchant acquiring, the fastest growing part of their businesses.
2015 Merchant acquiring share 2018 Merchant acquiring share
(by transactions), top five with ~38% share (by transactions), top five with ~43% share
First Data
14%
First Data
13%
Vantiv
31-150 8% 31-150
23% 22%
JPMC Worldpay / Vantiv
8% 13%
11-30
24% Worldpay 11-30 JPMC
5% 24% 8%
Cielo Global Payments
3% / TSYS
Global Payments 5%
3% Rede
Elavon Cielo
Nets Barclays Sberbank 3%
2% Elavon
Heartland 3% Nets Barclays 3% Sberbank 3%
2% 2%
2% 2% 2% 3%
Source: The Nilson Report, First Data estimates include JV proportionate share of transactions (BAMS, Wells Fargo, Citi, 24 January 2020 20
Santander, BBVA, PNC, Cardnet), Credit Suisse research estimates
Networks: New sources of volume supportive of 10%+ until at least 2023E
Street underestimates growth persistence and power of compounding
We quantify the potential impact (illustrative in sensitizing volume CAGR from small portions of penetration) of five
nascent drivers of US card payments (push-to-card and B2B - beyond PCE - along with contactless, bill-pay, and
underbanked additions to the card ecosystem) to determine their contribution to incremental growth.
Industry incentives are designed to drive adoption providing economic benefits for issuers (interchange, incentives),
networks (network fees), and consumers and business (rewards, speed, convenience, data) vs. cash, check, & ACH.
Based on our illustrative (and likely conservative) estimates, these five drivers alone could add ~250bps to US industry
growth (2019-2023E CAGR), lifting an expectation for high-single-digit trajectory into a more substantiated low-
double-digit CAGR; implies less onus on PCE growth and traditional cash-to-card conversion baked into estimates.
Illustrative Implied
Implied
incremental card addition to
New source of volume TAM volume
penetration 2019-2023E
addition
(2023E) CAGR
Push-to-card ~$7.7tr ~5% $386b 130bps
B2B ~$22tr ~1% $220b 70bps
Contactless ~$3.0tr ~3% $90b 30bps
Bill-pay ~$2.5tr ~2% $50b 20bps
Un-banked & under-banked ~$369b ~4% $16b 10bps
Total ~250bps
Source: Company reports, Visa, Aite, A.T. Kearney, FDIC, Mastercard, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 21
Networks: Regional exposures a key driver of growth
Mastercard’s volume growth premium & secular exposure to growth markets
Regional mix and greater exposure to faster-growth geographies (i.e., more nascent cash-to-card) has been a contributor
to Mastercard’s recent outgrowth relative to Visa (volume-wise).
Visa has a larger US mix, and its European business is weighted toward the UK (more mature card market, Brexit, etc.).
Mastercard benefits from its greater international mix, along with slight share gains, first-mover advantage with FinTechs
(though Visa has since improved significantly), and continued Maestro card conversion (not included in reported volumes).
Visa’s volume growth has been driven by its leading US business, and Mastercard’s growth has been somewhat more balanced (and higher
we forecast ~500bps of its ~12% growth in 2020E to be US-sourced overall), with meaningful contribution from the US, Europe, and APMEA
US Latin America Europe Canada APMEA
Europe US Latin America CEMEA Canada Asia Pacfic
15%
13% 13%
11% 12% 4%
11% 12%
2% 2% 10% 4% 3%
9% 2% 1% 3%
8% 2% 1%
2% 1%
1% 1%
5% 5% 1%
4% 6%
4% 5% 5%
4% 4% 4%
1% 1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1% 1% 4%
2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%
2% 1%
2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 22
Networks: Contactless rollout in the US
Near-term transaction growth driver and longer-term yield opportunity
Driver of transaction growth in mature markets with high card penetration, helping to replace cash usage on small-ticket items - forecasts
suggest ~50% of contactless penetration in the US by 2021 (Visa alone expects cards to move from ~100mm in 2019 to ~300mm in 2020).
Potential for ~$90b in incremental volumes by 2023E (~30bps additive to V/MA combined 2019-2023E CAGR), although more meaningful on
a revenue basis given higher net yields (bps of volume) at steady state.
We believe contactless (for the portion with a lower average ticket size) yields have potential to be ~2x+ that of an average sized transaction (i.e.,
a cents per transaction data processing fee spread over a lower ticket); although we expect Visa and Mastercard will pay away the majority of
this premium opportunity in the near term (~2-3 years) to incent the issuance and usage of contactless cards (i.e., rebates to both issuers and
acquirers).
Markets similar to the US (e.g., Australia, UK) with high card Illustratively, net yield opportunity in a steady state for contactless
penetration have seen meaningful adoption 3-4 years (percentage transactions has the potential to be ~2x+ that of a traditional, larger
increase in face-to-face transactions per card, years 1-5 post rollout) ticket size transaction (although still ~3-5 years away)
50% New Zealand
0.80%
Ireland Service Fees
45%
Switzerland 0.70% Data Processing Fixed Fee
40% 0.61%
United Kingdom
35% 0.60%
Canada
30% Australia 0.50%
0.40%
20% 0.50%
0.30% 0.26%
10% 0.20% 0.15%
9%
0.10%
0.11% 0.11%
0%
0.00%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
$50 transaction $15 transaction
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates; Note that estimate yield is based on Visa-reported company-wide averages across credit and debit; 24 January 2020 23
A.T. Kearny; Note: Issuing contactless cards is more expensive for issuers (~$5 vs. ~$3 per card for EMV enabled) and could impact speed of rollout.
Networks: Push-to-card opening up new payment flows
Visa Direct and Mastercard Send
Push-to-card is both offensive (priced to expand card-able TAM into larger, interchange-sensitive payments) & defensive (race to scale before
modern/fast ACH rails gain ubiquity), resulting in increased carded velocity of those same PCE dollars and further into B2B.
Expands card-able TAMs into new payment flows (i.e., beyond PCE, into marketplace merchant payouts, insurance claim payouts, etc.) –
sends to card-based accounts, then re-spent on cards (increased consumer and business debit card usage as an indirect benefit).
Earthport (Visa) & Transfast (Mastercard) expand the reach of V/MA to 99% of accounts in the top 50 markets; Visa Direct remittance platform
partnerships (and potentially bank partnerships) to drive premium priced cross-border transactions.
A potential $350-$400b (with conservative assumptions) in incremental volumes would be ~100-150bps additive to V/MA combined 2019-
2023E CAGR, but a lesser revenue impact given lower net yields vs. debit (as use cases become more commercial, pricing could improve).
Visa re-cast historical volumes pre- and post-inclusion of
“Push-to-card” payments (e.g., Visa Direct, Mastercard Send) expand card payments
Visa Direct, suggesting the new product had already
into new market opportunities, beyond C2B and into B2B, C2B, and P2P
reached ~1%+ of total volumes in 2018 (vs. ~2-3% 2019E)
$400b
$354b
$350b
$300b
$250b
$202b
$200b
$150b
$101b
$100b
$56b
$50b
$0b
2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 24
B2B Payments: Underpenetrated growth market nearing inflection
$125tr TAM that is so large, it almost does not merit discussion
While the actual payments being made can be less of an issue for some merchants, antiquated processes,
data/reconciliation challenges, and a lack of automation are common merchant pain points.
Modern software/payments platforms are helping to solve these pain points and, in the process, are increasing
awareness/usage of systems that will ultimately contribute to increased digitization of B2B payments.
Additionally, card usage and/or rewards programs can lead to rebates – turning AP functions into revenue generators
vs. cost centers, adding to the value proposition around efficiencies, reconciliation, etc.
Three buckets of B2B: 1) traditional corporate cards, virtual cards, etc.
Common pain points are often related to
(~$20tr of volumes); 2) cross-border B2B (~$10tr);
processes and data, not the actual payments
and 3) ~$90-95tr in accounts payable (domestic)
$140tr
Cash & Check Highly manual (people-intensive) processes are slow and expensive, given a lack of
$125tr automation, and error prone
ACH
$120tr
Carded
$38tr Checks have hidden costs (e.g., checks can be in the ~$4-20 range vs. ~$3 per
$100tr
ACH transaction, per AvidXchange) and are not guaranteed good funds
$80tr
~$90-95tr
domestic Limited transaction data from payments make reconciliation difficult
$60tr $52tr accounts
payable
$17tr $84tr
$40tr Cash flow management difficulty – i.e., paying on the due date with certainty vs.
$7tr mailing a check a few days ahead of time, lacking certainty
$20tr
$28tr
$0tr $2tr Lack of visibility into supplier payment preferences
Global Consumer Payments Global B2B Payments
Source: Company reports, Mastercard, Visa, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 25
B2B Payments: FleetCor and WEX, B2B pure-plays
Corporate payments a fast-growing portion for both companies
Beyond their core fuel card businesses (also a form of B2B payments), both FleetCor and WEX have corporate
payments businesses aiming to shift businesses more toward full-AP automation.
Both handle entire AP files (ACH, eCheck, virtual card) and are building supplier networks to expand virtual card
acceptance, bolstered by recent acquisitions – FleetCor’s Nvoicepay (~$220mm), WEX’s Noventis (~$310mm).
Corporate payments represent ~20% of FLT revenue, growing ~20%, while the business makes up less than 10%
of WEX revenue, growing at a similar ~15-20%. As these businesses become a larger part of mix, they should be
supportive of FLT & WEX multiples, given prospects for longer-term growth persistence in a whitespace opportunity.
Corporate
Payments Virtual card Cross-border AP automation Other Comment/Description
segment
Emphasis on mid-market; partnerships with AvidXchange
Fintwist for and Bill.com (more SMB focused platforms)
FleetCor Comdata Cambridge Nvoicepay
Payroll
3Delta Inspyrus partnership in AP automation; utilizes bank
WEX
Noventis, Systems, channel partners (American Express, PNC Bank, etc.);
WEX Virtual n/a
EFS AOC to address larger multi-national merchants' cross-border
Payments
Solutions needs
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research estimates 24 January 2020 26
Money transfer & remittances: Large market, but increasingly competitive
$700b TAM with economics compressing over time
Traditional bank wires (i.e., SWIFT messaging and usage correspondent banking) are a trusted form of money remittance but historically have
come with uncertain timing and fees (i.e., number of hops and fees taken at each hop).
Bank wires (~65% of global volumes) represent an opportunity for tech-forward platforms that have built their own global treasury operations
and/or networks of users and agent locations.
New entrants (e.g., Transferwise already at ~$5b in volume per month) offer low-fee alternatives to sub-sets of banked customers; Visa Direct-
Earthport further enabling globalization of FinTech competitors (via both card and bank account connectivity). Although markets with high
underbanked (cash-based) remittances (e.g., US into Mexico – largest corridor) remain attractive for traditional players (WU, IMXI).
Platforms like Western Union have both strategic/partnership value that is difficult to replicate – global breadth (operations in 200+ countries),
local market knowledge, compliance infrastructure (~$200mm per year), numerous licenses, and a brand name.
World Bank data suggest a decline in industry-wide pricing (fees as a
$700b TAM with volume growth in the MSD, offset by continued pricing
percentage of volume), although data are heavily influenced by the bank
pressure, likely results in LSD revenue growth
channel (where fees remain higher than average)
$800 14% 10%
12% $735b
$707b
$683b 12% 9.2% 9.2%
$700
$633b 9.0%
9% $603b $596b $589b 10% 9%
$600 $581b
$549b 8.4%
$529b 8%
$500 $470b 8% 6%
7% 8%
6% 4% 7.2%
$400 7.6% 7.0%
4% 4% 4% 7.3% 6.8%
4% 2% 7%
$300 -1% -1% 0%
$200 -2% 6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Company reports, World Bank, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 27
US bank tech: Stable outlook as banks need to lean on providers
$100b+ TAM growing ~4-5%, weighted toward growth vs. maintenance
“It is a constant, never-ending set of investments that have to be
Healthy bank IT spend (+4.5% through 2021) driven by consumer
made because as everyone in the audience knows our expectations
expectations, leading to an increased need for banks to modernize
change every day as we visit Amazon or Google or WeChat or
infrastructure by leaning on technology providers. whatever technology provider – Facebook – that you want to talk
Banking is increasingly a technology business (73% of US consumer about, it changes the expectations that we have for our financial
institutions. That puts pressure on the institutions to invest and
banking interactions occur digitally), lowering barriers to entry for
that’s good for us because it allows us to go into the market,
FinTechs and large technology platforms (e.g., Apple, Amazon) while
aggregate services, deliver them both on a one-off and is scalable..”
also favoring large incumbent banks with the capital to invest.
– Jeff Yabuki, Fiserv CEO (March 12, 2019)
~2/3 of bank tech spending in North America is maintenance related, but Banks seeing pressure from all sides (customer demands, regulatory,
80% of the growth in IT spending is earmarked for new investments competition, industry consolidation, and profitability pressures)
$120b 16%
Customer Demands Competitive Dynamics
$100b 24/7 responsiveness Big banks gaining share
12% Rising expectations set by Challenger banks
$80b $69 mainstream apps
$68
$68 BigTech
$67 Convenience
$60b $66 $67 8%
$40b
4%
$20b $42 $46
$33 $37 Regulatory Burden Industry Backdrop
$26 $29
High compliance costs Profitability pressures
$0b 0% (Dodd-Frank) from low interest rates
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
Ring-fencing, KYC Channel shifts to online
Maintenance New Investments
PSD2 (Europe) Consolidation
New Investments YoY Maintenance YoY
Source: Celent, PWC, Company data, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 28
US bank tech: Need to lean on core providers intensified by “barbell”
FinTechs are on one end of the “barbell”, big banks are on the other
The top four banks in the US (~63% of assets) have Both ends of the “barbell” are gaining share, in part due to better
annual technology budgets of ~$40b, equivalent to the technology/user experience, along with tech & marketing spend
entirety of global FinTech funding in 2018. Neo/Challenger
Regional banks,
banks (FinTech)
community banks, &
As FinTechs (and BigTech) continue to gain new and large
credit unions (core FISV,
Large US banks
technology
accounts, there are potential headwinds to monitor in the platforms (BigTech)
FIS, JKHY customers)
longer term (traditional banks’ potential to lose account &
transaction share among digitally native generations). Chime, Revolut, Monzo, JP Morgan Chase,
N26, Uber Money, Bank of America,
We believe the majority serve as secondary accounts with Google, Square Cash ~10-11k US financial Wells Fargo, Citi,
App, Varo Money, Apple, institutions US Bank, PNC,
the potential for that to change as offerings expand. Marcus by Goldman TD Bank, Truist,
Sachs, Affirm, SoFi, etc. Capital One
Neobanks in the US have ~45mm global users in aggregate; 2018E technology spend budgets show the big banks in a league of
longer-term potential to pressure account growth and transactions their own (annual spend of ~$40b) vs. FISV & FIS ~$10b combined
90 mm $12
In addition to Apple Card, 78 mm $11b
80 mm 73 mm $10b
Uber Money and Google $10 $9b
70 mm checking accounts to come… $8b
59 mm
60 mm $8
50 mm
$6 $5b
40 mm 35 mm $4b
$4
30 mm
20 mm 21 mm
20 mm $2
10 mm 4 mm 7 mm
4 mm $0
0 mm Bank of JP Morgan Citigroup Wells Fargo FIS Fiserv
Stash Marcus Chime Cash App Total Citi JP BofA Wells America
Morgan Fargo
Source: Company data, CB Insights, Credit Suisse estimates; Note 1: FISV and FIS bank tech spend estimates are based on a combination of related
2018 operating expenses (ex-SG&A), capex, and acquisitions (fluctuates by year) and are meant solely to be directional indicators vs. precise figures; 24 January 2020 29
Note 2: FinTech user numbers presented are global for non-US platforms that recently entered the US; Note 2: Cash App user numbers are CSe
US bank tech: Growth algorithm all about existing customer growth
Four key drivers with an emphasis on up/cross-sell, accounts & transactions
US bank technology businesses (e.g., Fiserv, FIS, Jack Four key components to growth in US banking technology businesses
Henry) are mid-single-digit growers with existing (e.g., Fiserv, FIS, Jack Henry, etc.)
customers driving the majority of growth.
6%
Four components of growth: ~Mid-single-digit growth
– CPI-based escalators included in contracts. New clients,
term fees, etc.
5%
– Add-on product sales (e.g., bill-pay, Zelle, RTP, online
banking, etc. sold by core providers and integrated into the Account Monitoring for any changes
core system) including upgrades to more dated versions. growth & related to (1) longer-term
4% transaction potential for small- to
– Account & transaction growth (checking accounts, debit growth mid-sized US banks to cede
cards, transactions processed). account & transaction share
among digitally native
– New client additions (smallest driver), term fees, and other0 3% generations and (2) any
Add-on increased desire for and
While there are potential headwinds to monitor longer products investment in third-party bank
term, existing providers have meaningful moats such as: (cross-sell & technology competitors.
up-sell)
2%
– Sticky relationships and long term contracts (~5 years).
– Ability to price ancillary bank IT services attractively given low
incremental costs. 1% CPI-based
– Track record in maintaining technology leadership organically escalators
and via bolt-on M&A (further supported by elevated FCF
levels from merger synergies). 0%
Components of growth for US core bank tech providers
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research estimates; Note: Growth contribution portions illustrative 24 January 2020 30
US bank tech: Next-gen cores challenged by a ~1-2% window
Easier road for ancillaries vs. cores, but signs of interest hard to ignore
Roughly 1-2% of banks switch core providers per year with core
conversions viewed as the most challenging and expensive IT
“…met with roughly 3,900 bank CEOs…one narrative came up again, and
project a bank can undertake (challenge for new entrants).
again, and again…we’re struggling with our core relationship – the core is not
Increasing signs that a substantial number of banks would like to as nimble, it’s not as agile, we’re not able to offer the innovative customer
use third-party ancillary offerings in lieu of those offered by their experience that we’d like to with the same efficiency or the speed…”
core provider (consistent with ABA CEO’s conversations with
– Rob Nichols, CEO, American Bankers Association, speaking to his first
~3.9k US bank CEOs that led to the formation of the ABA Core
year on the job in 2016 (quote from February 2019)
Platforms Committee, and the ABA’s investment behind Finxact).
Third-party providers of bank IT services (e.g., mobile banking)
face competition from ancillary add-ons offered by the cores (FISV,
Roughly ~1-2% of US banks switch core providers each year (vs.
FIS, JKHY), along with integration challenges (although the hurdle ~20% up for contract renewal given ~5-year average contracts)
for ancillary services is much lower than switching cores).
Ability to consider working with third-party providers (aside from 250 New Core Banking Contracts 3%
bank’s core provider) correlates with the size of the bank (i.e.,
smaller banks often lack a CTO, outsource IT to core provider, and 200
are more likely to maintain a single vendor approach). We believe 1.8%
1.9% 1.9%
2%
that banks with at least ~$500mm in assets (~2k banks and credit 150 1.6% 1.6%
1.4%
unions vs. ~11k total) are potential buyers of third-party offerings. 236
100 205 213 209
196
Emerging vendors should have the most success in new product 169 1%
launches with mid- to larger-sized financial institutions looking for
50
best-of-breed products rather than full core conversions (i.e.
considering new savings accounts on a modern core).
0 0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
Source: Company reports, Aite Group, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 31
Valuations mostly at or above 3-year averages
But most of the stock price moves have been from earnings, not multiples
3-year price change – explained by earnings vs. multiple expansion(1) NTM P/E – Current vs. 3-year Median
175% 40x 37.6x
34.5x
Trailing 3-yr Share Price Return
150% 33.1x 33.2x
35x
125%
30x 27.6x
100%
25.6x
24.2x 23.7x
75% 25x 22.0x
50% 19.6x
20x 13.9x
25%
14.7x
0% 15x
-25%
GPN WEX PYPL FLT WU FIS FISV V MA 10x
PYPL V MA FIS FISV GPN RPAY FLT WEX WU IMXI VRRM
Earnings Multiple
3-year price change – explained by EBITDA vs. multiple expansion NTM EV/EBITDA – Current vs. 3-year Median
70x 66.6x
200%
60x
Trailing 3-yr Share Price Return
150%
50x
100% 40x
29.1x
30x 24.8x 26.5x
50%
18.5x
16.4x 15.6x 15.0x
20x 13.3x 12.7x
10.5x
0% 7.5x
10x
-50% 0x
GPN WEX PYPL FLT WU FIS FISV V MA PYPL V MA FIS FISV GPN SQ FLT WEX WU IMXI VRRM
EBITDA Multiple Source: Company reports, OnDeck, Credit Suisse research estimates 24 January 2020 32
(1) Exclusions – SQ (results are NM), RPAY, and VRRM do not have sufficient data to provide this breakout
Median PEG ratio of ~1.2x
High valuation multiples, but more reasonable vs. growth, market
Payments stocks appear expensive at first glance given mid-20s or higher P/E multiples, but on a growth adjusted basis
valuations appear more reasonable (company dependent).
For context, we show Nasdaq 100 tracking the QQQ (tech-centric) and the broader market (S&P 500) – more expensive
on a multiple-to-growth basis than our sector coverage median.
PEG ratio (P/E on 2021 estimates vs. 2020-2022E EPS CAGR); when compared the technology sector ETF (QQQ) and the broader market (S&P 500),
valuation appears less demanding (i.e. adjusted for growth)
0.5x
2021 PEG (multiple on 2021E / 2020-2022E CAGR)
IMXI
1.0x
WU
WEX FIS GPN
VRRM FLT FISV
PYPL
MA
1.5x
V
S&P 500
QQQ
2.0x
10% 13% 15% 18% 20% 23%
2020-2022E Consensus EPS CAGR
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates, Excluding SQ (not within bounds) and RPAY, IMXI 2022 EPS CSe (due to 24 January 2020 33
lack of consensus)
Payments, Processors, & FinTech sector valuation
Trades at a premium to S&P, currently about inline with average
Sector 3-year historical median NTM EV/EBITDA Sector 3-year historical median NTM P/E
Coverage Aggregate +1 Std. Dev Coverage Aggregate Median
-1 Std. Dev Median +1 Std. Dev -1 Std. Dev
+1 Std. Dev
+1 Std. Dev 23.6x
17.1x
-1 Std. Dev
14.7x -1 Std. Dev
20.6x
Sector 3-year NTM EV/EBITDA premium to S&P 500 Index Sector 3-year NTM P/E premium to S&P 500 Index
2.5x Premium to S&P 500 3-year average 1.6x Sector Premium to S&P 500 3-year Average
2.2x
1.4x 1.4x
1.9x 1.8x
1.3x
1.6x
1.7x
1.2x
1.3x
1.0x
1.0x
24 January 2020 34
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates; Sector includes CS payments coverage universe (excluding RPAY and SQ P/E - NM)
HOLT® “What’s Priced In” Analysis via Credit Suisse HOLT team
Implied 10-year revenue CAGR based on HOLT proprietary methodology
12.0%
Implied Revenue Growth
9.7%
8.8% 8.7% 8.5%
7.8% 7.3% 7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
SQ MA PYPL FISV WEX FLT V GPN VRRM FIS WU IMXI
Market implied growth
Methodology
This analysis is based on the HOLT DCF framework and uses our Research forecasts as a starting point for 2019-2021
EBITDA margins: 2019- 2023 using CS Research estimates, then assumed constant
Sales growth: 2019-2021 based on research, 2022-2028 solved for the sales CAGR required to get to today’s price
After the 10-year explicit forecast, the HOLT methodology calculates the terminal value by fading returns on capital and growth towards cost
of capital and GDP growth respectively
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 35
Payments macro dashboard
A view of some of the macro and sector-related items we track
Metric Comments Direction
~30bps deceleration Q4 2019 vs. Q3 2019; December read (M/M) beat expectations by ~10bps, following a slight weakening from the summer months (but a
US retail sales strong December - ~6% YoY - boosted by Cyber Monday falling in December this year); Q1 seasonally lowest quarter of year, but coming off of an easier prior
year comp; Note: we reference non-seasonally adjusted data
Flattish in Q4 2019 QTD (through November) vs. Q3 2019 (CS economics team global consumption index) to ~3.1%; Above longer term trend of ~2.4% YoY
Global retail sales
monthly growth (10-year average); On a monthly basis November flat vs. October as well
Q3 2019 was a strong eComm quarter, showing a ~500 bps acceleration (to ~20%) vs. Q2 2019, though aggregate retail sales suggest slight weakness in retail as a
whole; Adobe reports suggest Cyber Monday sales hit a record $9.4b (+~19% vs PY) and estimate a ~14% YoY increase for Q4 2019 online sales; Q3 2019 US
US eCommerce
retail sales eCommerce report showed the highest YoY quarterly increase in over a decade (~20%); Mastercard SpendingPulse suggests US eComm up ~19%
(Nov 1st - Dec 24th) inline with last year's strong holiday season (also ~19%)
+150bps YoY in Q4 2019 vs. +340bps YoY in Q3 2019 (DXY quarterly, daily average); Overall, strong dollar trends have continued (above 200 day moving
USD strength (DXY) average), USD stronger against EUR, BRL, and AUD, ~flat vs. CAD, and weaker vs. GBP; Stronger dollar can have a "triple whammy" negative impact for payments
(translation/re-measurement, demand destruction, and take rates)
Q4 2019 volatility down sequentially ~1900 bps to ~25%; FX volatility is below the longer term average of ~8, at ~5 currently, having decreased from levels seen
FX Vol (CVIX)
at the beginning of the quarter. Note: CVIX is Deutsche Bank's measure of currency trading volatility. Increased FX volatility is benefits cross-border yields
Quarterly average growth retail gas price per gallon improved ~550bps (to -2%) Q4 2019 vs. Q3 2019, albeit off of a much easier comp; Monthly prices are down
US retail gasoline prices sequentially (-47 bps M/M), continuation of a trend coming from a YTD high in May of 2019 and now below 3-year average of ~$2.60 (at a Q4 of ~$2.55); V/MA
~MSD % of US volumes at gas stations; Summary is gas prices are still down YoY, but less than last quarter
+340bps Q4 2019 QTD through November vs. +370bps YoY in Q3 2019; Growth comes in below longer term trends (~5% avg), for Europe and Latin America in
IATA particular (multi-year lows), with North America also weak (albeit off the lows, still below average); Note: IATA airline data provides tourism reads, with tourism
representing ~50-60% or more of cross-border card volumes
Visa UK spending index up ~20bps YoY Q4 2019 vs. Q3 2019 down ~1.4%, with a rebound in December (+~80bps); Barclaycard up ~110bps Q4 2019 vs. up
Visa & Barclaycard UK ~150bps Q3 2019 (decelerated ~40bps); Visa UK noted 15th straight YoY monthly decline in December, while Barclaycard noted December monthly retail sales up
~10bps with consumer confidence at 2019 highs (weak in December buoyed by a mediocre holiday season)
Q4 2019 decelerated ~30 bps QoQ from Q3 2019 to a level of 103.5; currently off of recent all-time highs in the index (August 2018 ~108), now slightly down
NFIB SMB confidence
sequentially but stabilizing and above longer term averages; Note: SMB payments volumes are the highest yielding for merchant acquirers (vs. larger merchants)
~60bps acceleration Q4 2019 vs. Q3 2019 for All Industries data, while Retail-specific data showed a ~70bps acceleration vs. Q3 2019 levels (better eComm
First Data SpendTrend [~170bps acceleration vs. Q3] and an also strong YoY in-store [~30bps acceleration vs. Q3]); Positive reads all around in December vs. November with all Retail
accelerating ~250bps and All Industries ~110bps; Note: SpendTrend is a macro-economic indicator based on aggregate SSS activity in the First Data POS network
Q4 2019 credit card volume decel ~70 bps from Q3 2019 (big banks only); Q4 2019 debit card volume decel ~40 bps vs Q3 2019; total carded volume decel ~60
bps in Q4 2019 vs Q3 2019 (big banks only); Long-term trends for issuer volume are largely intact, though overall lower growth rates vs 2018, but still on aggregate
US card issuer volumes
at HSD (~8% growth for all carded YoY); Note: US issuer volume includes BOA, C, JPM, USB, WFC credit card volumes, and BOA, JPM, USB, WFC debit card
volumes
Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, FactSet, US Census Bureau, Company reports, NFIB, First Data, Visa, Barclays,
IATA, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 36
What’s happening right now…macro and industry data backdrop
US Census Bureau & SpendTrend suggest eCommerce will continue to shine
YoY Growth in e-Commerce retail sales has moderated over the past 10 years
First Data Spend Trend (all industries SSS POS data) quarterly growth sits
but still averages nearly triple total retail sales. As a % of total retail sales,
below the longer-term trend but off of longer-term lows earlier in 2019
e-Commerce has grown to 10% in 2019 from 1% in 2001
All Industries Average
30% eCommerce as a Percent of total retail 11% All Industries - E-Commerce All Industries - Brick & Mortar
E-commerce YoY
Total Retail YoY 9%
20% 7%
5%
10% 3%
1%
0% -1%
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
NFIB Small Business Confidence Index (1986 = 100); after cratering in 2008, the DXY index is at 2-year highs, at stronger levels than previously (negative for
SMB confidence index achieved a 20-year high in August 2018 cross-border card purchase volumes)
110 105
107.9 DXY Index 50 Day MA 200 day MA 5 Year Average
103.8 After cratering in 2008 - NFIB
105 100
small business confidence index
achieved a 20 year high in
100
95
95
90
90
85 85
81.6
80
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
Source: FactSet, First Data SpendTrend, NFIB, US Census Bureau, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 37
Payments, Processors, & FinTech detailed valuation table
Valuation across P/E, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, and relevant CAGRs
Sales Adj. EBITDA Adj. EPS
Target Price Market Cap EV Net Debt / Multiple- Multiple- 3-Year
Ticker Rating (2) 19-21E Multiple-to- 19-21E EV/ EBITDA 19-21E
Price ($) ($mm) ($mm) EBITDA 2020E 2021E EV/Sales 2020E 2021E to- 2020E 2021E P/E to- Average
CAGR growth CAGR EBITDA margin % CAGR
growth growth PE
Payments
V 228 OP 207 462,639 465,948 0.2x 25,453 28,443 11% 16.4x 1.5x 17,887 20,347 13% 22.9x 70% 1.8x 6.20 7.23 15% 28.5x 1.9x 27.6x
MA 350 OP 325 331,420 333,021 0.2x 19,190 21,732 13% 15.3x 1.1x 11,896 13,688 16% 24.3x 62% 1.6x 9.06 10.74 18% 30.3x 1.7x 30.0x
PYPL 135 OP 118 141,829 136,331 (1.2x) 20,771 24,364 17% 5.6x 0.3x 5,599 6,612 18% 20.6x 27% 1.1x 3.49 4.23 17% 27.9x 1.6x 32.4x
FIS 170 OP 149 92,292 111,717 5.4x 13,552 14,565 19% 7.7x 0.4x 6,079 6,801 27% 16.4x 45% 0.6x 6.36 7.42 16% 20.1x 1.3x 19.4x
FISV 133 NEUTRAL 122 85,557 106,560 7.1x 15,460 16,486 7% 6.5x 1.0x 6,180 6,655 19% 16.0x 40% 0.8x 4.97 5.87 21% 20.8x 1.0x 23.7x
GPN 230 OP 200 60,707 68,468 4.8x 9,101 9,585 30% 7.1x 0.2x 3,538 4,030 34% 17.0x 39% 0.5x 7.56 9.04 21% 22.1x 1.1x 22.4x
SQ 84 OP 69 33,419 33,287 (0.3x) 2,840 3,664 28% 9.1x 0.3x 530 759 35% 43.9x 19% 1.2x 0.95 1.31 30% 52.8x 1.8x -
(1) ADYEN-NL NC NC € 828 € 25,630 € 25,567 (0.3x) € 3,402 € 4,542 36% 5.6x 0.2x € 397 € 576 43% 44.4x 12% 1.0x € 9.58 € 13.79 43% 60.0x 1.4x NM
JKHY NC NC 152 11,761 11,739 (0.0x) 1,665 1,779 7% 6.6x 0.9x 532 586 7% 20.0x 32% 2.7x 3.62 4.13 8% 36.9x 4.4x 33.9x
QTWO NC NC 88 4,950 4,768 (15.0x) 412 512 27% 9.3x 0.3x 20 43 56% 110.2x 5% 2.0x 0.09 0.50 110% 176.7x 1.6x NM
ACIW NC NC 37 4,430 5,801 4.5x 1,492 1,564 11% 3.7x 0.3x 431 460 21% 12.6x 29% 0.6x 1.80 2.00 27% 18.3x 0.7x 31.1x
EVOP NC NC 29 2,394 2,181 2.6x 647 704 9% 3.1x 0.4x 176 196 11% 11.1x 27% 1.0x 0.71 0.86 18% 33.1x 1.8x 38.8x
(3) RPAY 19 OP 16 910 848 N/A 215 259 26% 3.3x 0.1x 63 79 29% 10.8x 29% 0.4x 0.54 0.72 9% 22.1x 2.5x 31.0x
GDOT NC NC 29 1,595 751 (3.2x) 1,058 1,120 3% 0.7x 0.2x 174 202 (8%) 3.7x 16% NM 1.68 2.14 (12%) 13.6x NM 18.9x
Median 0.2x 15% 6.5x 0.3x 20% 18.5x 29% 1.0x 18% 28.2x 1.6x 28.8x
B2B Payments / Other
FLT 335 NEUTRAL 317 28,866 31,968 2.0x 2,946 3,234 10% 9.9x 1.0x 1,737 1,936 13% 16.5x 59% 1.3x 13.64 15.65 15% 20.2x 1.3x 19.7x
WEX - R 222 9,879 12,031 3.3x 1,929 2,091 10% 5.8x 0.6x 827 910 13% 13.2x 43% 1.0x 10.59 11.99 14% 18.5x 1.3x 20.3x
VRRM 17.5 OP 16 2,632 3,361 3.3x 505 537 10% 6.3x 0.6x 265 283 9% 11.9x 52% 1.3x 0.81 0.91 17% 17.5x 1.1x 16.8x
EPAY NC NC 55 2,522 2,565 0.4x 449 496 8% 5.2x 0.6x 104 117 8% 21.9x 23% 2.7x 1.39 1.58 8% 34.8x 4.3x 31.0x
BILL NC NC 46 3,706 2,549 N/A 138 170 N/A 15.0x N/A (27) (29) N/A - -20% N/A (0.37) (0.36) N/A - N/A -
Median 2.6x 10% 6.3x 0.6x 11% 14.9x 43% 1.3x 15% 19.4x 1.3x 20.0x
Money Transfer
WU 26 UP 28 11,894 13,993 1.6x 5,288 5,422 1% 2.6x 2.3x 1,353 1,432 4% 9.8x 26% 2.5x 1.97 2.19 11% 12.7x 1.1x 11.1x
EEFT NC NC 167 9,347 8,997 (0.6x) 3,078 3,404 11% 2.6x 0.2x 702 802 15% 11.2x 23% 0.7x 8.13 9.28 15% 18.0x 1.2x 17.8x
MGI NC NC 3 211 984 3.6x 1,280 1,310 1% 0.8x 1.2x 204 216 2% 4.6x 16% 1.9x (0.02) 0.10 NM 25.8x NM 13.1x
IMXI 14.5 NEUTRAL 12 469 471 0.0x 371 426 15% 1.1x 0.1x 66 76 15% 6.2x 18% 0.4x 0.97 1.12 15% 10.8x 0.7x 17.7x
Median 0.8x 6% 1.8x 0.7x 9% 8.0x 20% 1.3x 15% 15.3x 1.1x 15.4x
Min (15.0x) 1% 0.7x 0.1x (8%) 3.7x 5% 0.4x (12%) 10.8x 0.7x -
25th % (0.3x) 8% 3.1x 0.3x 10% 11.1x 20% 0.7x 14% 18.4x 1.1x 17.8x
Mean 0.9x 14% 6.1x 0.6x 18% 21.3x 32% 1.3x 21% 32.8x 1.7x 22.8x
Median 0.4x 11% 5.7x 0.4x 15% 16.2x 28% 1.1x 16% 22.1x 1.4x 21.4x
75th % 3.3x 18% 7.5x 1.0x 25% 21.6x 42% 1.8x 21% 32.4x 1.8x 31.0x
Max 7.1x 36% 16.4x 2.3x 56% 110.2x 70% 2.7x 110% 176.7x 4.4x 38.8x
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 38
(1) Gross Profit is reported Net Revenue - which is revenue less interchange and other payaways, (2) International companies EBITDA on an annual basis, (3) Repay
historicals and shares from CS model, FactSet does not have pro-forma financials in database or updated share count
Visa (V) CS Rating
CS Target Price
OP
$228
Visa Europe and Contactless in the US ahead
Mid- to high-teens EPS compounder featuring higher Visa’s volumes are weighted more toward US & debit relative to
relative exposure to the US, UK, and debit (vs. MA higher Mastercard (which has higher exposure to International and credit)
international and credit).
~50% of contracts renewed in FY 2019 and 1H 2020, 42%
Debit
53%
Credit
boosting incentives in FY 2020 (laps in FY 2021).
Expect share stabilization and pricing in Europe over the US
coming quarters (with platform migration completed late International
44%
2018, value-added services, processing share, etc.). 56%
47%
Greater beneficiary of US contactless rollout given mix Debit
(~45% of volumes vs. ~35% for MA). 58%
Credit
Visa organic, ex-FX volume growth more driven by US vs. Mastercard, 5-Year NTM P/E; MA has consistently traded at a premium vs. V,
with ~65% of volumes international (vs. 55% for Visa) dating back to 2016
Europe US Latin America CEMEA Canada Asia Pacfic MA NTM PE V is currently trading at a 12% 37.2x
MA Average discount to MA on a PE basis,
Visa NTM PE and has consistently traded at
11% 12% a discount since 2017
11% Visa Average
2% 9% 2%
2%
8%
2%
1% 5% 5% 4%
4% 33.1x
4%
1% 1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1% 1%
2% 2% 1% 2% 2%
2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 39
CS Rating OP
Mastercard (MA) CS Target Price $350
Attractive Regional Mix, high teens compounder
High-teens EPS compounder featuring higher relative Mastercard’s volumes are weighted more toward International & credit
exposure to faster-growth international markets (relative to V, relative to Visa (which has higher exposure to US & debit)
although trading at a ~4x-turn premium on NTM EPS).
42% 53%
Acquisitions (Vocalink, Transfast, Nets [pending close]) Debit Credit
support a multi-rail approach and efforts to attract B2B flows
(Mastercard Track), along with Transactis in bill-pay US
35%
(Mastercard Bill Pay Exchange). International
47%
65%
Maestro card conversions supportive of volume and revenue Debit
growth (~still 443mm remain vs. ~2.2b Mastercard branded).
58%
Credit
Mastercard has an organic, ex-FX volume growth premium to Visa, 5-Year NTM P/E; MA has consistently traded at a premium vs. V,
driven by exposure to faster growing geographies dating back to 2016
US Latin America Europe Canada APMEA MA NTM PE V is currently trading at a 12% 37.2x
15% MA Average discount to MA on a PE basis,
Visa NTM PE and has consistently traded at
13% 13% a discount since 2017
4% 12% Visa Average
10% 4% 3%
1% 3%
2% 1% 1%
1% 1%
6% 33.1x
5% 5% 4%
4%
4% 3% 3% 3%
2%
2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020
CS Rating OP
PayPal (PYPL) CS Target Price $135
Best way to win a fight, not to get into a fight
eCommerce pure play and share gainer, informed by our true 2019E revenue mix, with the vast majority of monetization via
TAM analysis (global eCommerce, online travel, eFood transaction-based revenue (Braintree ~25% of total)
delivery, eTicketing, online charitable donations, ride-sharing, PYPL Credit OVAS Remain
7%
2%
crowdfunding, mobile gaming, and streaming subscriptions). Venmo
2% Braintree
iZettle OVAS 25%
Long list of emerging areas of upside (i.e., Braintree 1% revenue
Xoom 10%
becoming more global, Venmo flipping from an EPS drag to 2% eBay
boost, tech partnerships [MELI, Uber, Facebook], bill-pay, 14%
China, iZettle, Honey).
Transaction
eBay headwind manageable and likely accompanied by revenue
90%
previously restricted marketplace partnerships.
Core PYPL
47%
TPV Build – We model eBay contributing a slight drag to volumes, but
PayPal’s P/E has inflected since mid-2016’s “Choice” decision
rolling off over time instead of a distinct point in time
2018A 2019E 1Q20E 2Q20E 3Q20E 4Q20E 2020E 2021E 2022E
US TPV 332,340 424,450 121,535 129,824 134,282 150,641 536,283 664,117 820,369
YoY ex eBay OA expiry - - - - 27% 27% - - -
+1 Std. Dev
eBay OA expiry impact - - - - (1%) (1%) - - -
33.6x
YoY 28% 27% 27% 26% 26% 26% 24% 24%
2-year 56% 55% 55% 54% 53% 54% 50% 47%
International TPV 246,079 291,753 78,954 84,163 85,759 102,669 351,545 426,654 516,251
YoY FXN ex eBay OA expiry - - - - 24% 24% - - -
eBay OA expiry impact - - - - (1%) (1%) - - -
YoY FXN - - 25% 24% 23% 23% - - -
2-year FXN - - 47% 48% 48% 48% - - -
-1 Std. Dev
26.2x
Total TPV 578,419 716,202 200,489 213,988 220,041 253,310 887,828 1,090,771 1,336,620
YoY Organic FXN 25% 24% 26% 26% 25% 24% 25% 23% 23%
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 41
24 January 2020
CS Rating OP
Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) CS Target Price $170
Accelerating top line for the foreseeable future
Acceleration in top line in 2020, 2021, and possibly 2022;
Estimated business mix (2019E) of the combined FIS-WP entity
revenue synergies from two deals benefiting the Merchant
Solutions business in 2020 (FIS-WP, VNTV-WP).
GFS Institutional &
Meaningful exposure to high-growth channels, with ~45% of Wholesale
merchant acquiring in global eCommerce and partnered 19%
Capital FIS Integrated
Financial Solutions
Markets
software; longer-term in-store expansion in new countries FIS merchant
19%
(IFS)
37%
acquiring business
(i.e., 6 today vs. GPN at 33). 2%
Banking
Solutions
Worldpay
Bank technology segments (Banking & Capital Markets) are Merchant Merchant
48%
FIS Global
Solutions Financial Solutions
positioned to sustain their current topline trajectory, fueled by Solutions
16% 33% (GFS, retail
a healthy bank IT spend environment (+4.5% through 2021) banking and
payments)
and an increasing need for banks to modernize their Integrated
8%
Worldpay Issuer
payments eCommerce
infrastructure by leaning on technology providers. 7% 8%
Solutions
3%
FIS set to accelerate top-line growth in 2020, 2021, and possibly 2022, FIS has seen multiple expansion since announcing the Worldpay
benefiting from two deals’ worth of revenue synergies acquisition (gaining a leading eCommerce payments business)
2019E 1Q20E 2Q20E 3Q20E 4Q20E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Total revenue 12,730 3,258 3,435 3,429 3,602 13,724 14,795 15,965
YoY reported 3% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
YoY FXN - 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
+1 Std. Dev
21.1x
Inorganic contribution to growth (%) - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Revenue synergies run-rate ($) - 110 155 200 250 250 450 620
Revenue synergies contribution to growth (%) - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
-1 Std. Dev
YoY organic FXN (w/ synergies) - 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8%
16.9x
2-year - - - - 12% 6% 12% 13%
YoY organic FXN ex-synergies - 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7%
2-year - 0% 0% 0% 12% - 12% 13%
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 42
CS Rating NEUTRAL
Fiserv (FISV) CS Target Price $133
Scale begets scale
FDC undervalued thesis now validated by market (trends Estimated business mix (2019E) of the combined FISV-FDC entity
having improved to +7% organic in GBS NA, increase in
Agent Digital Money Movement
share price since acquisition, etc.). 3% International (online banking, payments, bill
9% pay)
Exposure to attractive swim lanes (ISV, eCommerce, ISV
1% 11%
international) and “crown jewels” assets (Clover,
CardConnect, Latin American merchant acquiring business), Retail and Wholesale
6%
ISOs Card and Related Services
(issuer processing, output
albeit making up a smaller portion of the overall business; Direct (referral Merchant
Payments
Other services)
partners) 38% 3%
GBS faces tougher compares ahead. 10% 46%
11%
We expect bank tech (Payments & Financials) to have MSD JV Alliance FDC - Legacy GFS (issuer
growth medium-term driven by healthy bank IT spending and Channel
Financials processing, output services)
Other 8%
an increasing need for small and medium-sized financial Lending Solutions2% 17% 11%
institutions to lean on their core providers to modernize. 0%
Account and Item Processing
FDC - Legacy NSS (debit
processing)
15% 10%
FISV will benefit from revenue synergies driving reported revenue Similar to FIS, FISV has seen multiple expansion following the
growth higher in both 2020 and potentially 2021 announcement of its merger (with FDC) in early 2019
2018A 2019E 1Q20E 2Q20E 3Q20E 4Q20E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Total Adj. Revenue 13,902 14,498 3,679 3,853 3,817 4,017 15,366 16,447 17,607
YoY reported 0% 4% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7%
+1 Std. Dev
YoY Organic 0% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7%
24.0x
YoY FXN Organic (w/ Synergies) 0% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Run-rate Synergies ($) - 20 40 68 97 126 126 270 430
-1 Std. Dev
Incremental Synergies (%) 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4%
21.9x
YoY FXN Organic ex-Synergies 0% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
2-year FXN Organic ex-Synergies - - - - - 12% 12% 12% 12%
Inorganic % to growth 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 43
Global Payments (GPN) CS Rating
CS Target Price
OP
$230
In all the right swim lanes
~22% EPS CAGR (2019-221E), supported by business mix analysis
Estimated business mix (2019E) of the combined GPN-TSS entity
suggesting organic ex-FX revenue growth ~8-11% medium-term (plus
M&A), along with ~200bps annual margin expansion (including TSYS Consumer Integrated
~$325mm in guided cost synergies). Solutions Payments (Tech-
11% enabled)
Highest relative exposure to the fastest growing channels: 1) ~37% Business &
13%
owned & partnered software growing ~10-14%; 2) ~17% global Consumer
Solutions Owned software
eCommerce & omnichannel growing ~15-18%; 3) ~20% International (Tech-enabled)
11%
growing ~10%+; and 4) an emphasis on SMB and multi-nationals. Issuer
11%
Solutions
Leading credit issuer processor with dominant share in the US, UK,
25%
Ireland, Canada, and China (+5-7% growth vs. industry +3%); Merchant
improved ability to win bank partnerships and joint ventures. Solutions eCommerce &
64% Omnichannel
Our preferred pick amongst the three mega-mergers given it provides (Tech-enabled)
11%
with the fastest revenue growth as a payments pure play with the
lowest leverage and the least dependence on revenue synergies. Relationship-led
30%
We expect Global Payments to maintain an organic growth range of GPN has historically traded at a low-20x multiple, with estimates
+8-11%, bolstered by a vertical software M&A strategy typically low due to continued M&A (verticalized software emphasis)
4/26/19: GPN -
2019E 1Q20E 2Q20E 3Q20E 4Q20E 2020E 2021E 2022E TSYS merger
announcement 24.0x
Total adjusted revenue 7,128 1,866 1,943 2,028 2,018 7,855 8,679 9,532
+1 Std. Dev
YoY reported - 8% 10% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 23.5x
YoY Organic - 8% 9% 10% 10% 9% 10% 10%
YoY FXN Organic (ex-Synergies) - 8% 8% 10% 10% 9% 10% 9% -1 Std. Dev
Run-rate Synergies ($) 5 10 15 25 40 40 110 150 19.6x
Incremental Synergies (%) - 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
YoY FXN Organic (w/Synergies) - 8% 9% 10% 10% 9% 10% 10%
Inorganic contribution to growth (%) - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 44
Square (SQ) CS Rating OP
Recycling monetization (sellers & Cash App) CS Target Price $84
Intersection of software + payments, with a 3x "recycling" Square sources ~54% of its revenue via the core seller transaction-
(seller ecosystem, Cash App/Card, and Business Debit/ID). based business, with another ~42% in additional S&S revenue
Attractive set-up for 2020 with its initial guide out of the
Cash App
way, two recent pricing actions (in-store processing, Instant 23%
Hardware
Transfer), and a March analyst day to bridge the gap until we 4%
begin to see benefits from re-investment (late 2020 and into
Square Capital
1H 2021). 7% Subscription & Transaction-
services-
Upside in Cash App, omnichannel (Weebly), scaling of Instant Deposit
(Seller) based
based (net)
54%
recently introduced products, B2B (Square Card) and 7% 42%
potential new products (credit card, expense management, Square Card
(Seller) Bitcoin (net)
AP/AR partnership, etc.). 1%
Square Online
0%
Other S&S
Store (Weebly)
4% 0%
We model GPV stabilizing in the mid-20%s, with potential for
improvement as marketing spend returns begin (2H 2020 -1H2021) EV/EBITDA multiple on NTM estimates, peaking in 2018 as volumes
SQ 2018A 2019E 1Q20E 2Q20E 3Q20E 4Q20E 2020E 2021E 2022E
were stable in the low ~30%s and S&S revenue was accelerating
Gross Payment Volume (GPV) 84,655 106,068 27,782 32,678 34,721 35,300 130,481 161,796 197,829
QoQ - - -2% 18% 6% 2% - - -
Discrete contribution to GPV (%) - - - - - - - - -
YoY organic 30% 25% 23% 22% 23% 24% 23% 24% 22%
+1 Std. Dev
2-year 61% 55% 50% 47% 48% 48% 48% 47% 46%
84.1x
% of GPV - by seller type
>$500K 23% 26% 28% 28% 29% 29% 29% 30% 31%
$125K-$500K 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28%
-1 Std. Dev
53.2x
<$125K 50% 46% 44% 44% 43% 43% 43% 42% 41%
Volume >$500K 19,177 27,467 7,779 9,150 10,069 10,237 37,235 47,789 60,412
YoY 55% 43% 50% 31% 32% 33% 36% 28% 26%
2-year 122% 98% 95% 79% 73% 73% 79% 64% 55%
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates
24 January 2020
FleetCor Technologies (FLT) CS Rating
CS Target Price
NEUTRAL
$335
King of the cross-sell
Approaching 60% of revenues ex-fuel (and just ~14% of FleetCor has diversified away from the core fuel card business, with
revenue exposed to fuel prices vs. ~25% for WEX). ~60% of revenue ex-fuel (Corporate Payments, Lodging, Tolls, 2019E)
Gift
Four main verticals (Fuel, Corporate Payments, Lodging, 7% Other
Tolls), share similar appealing characteristics (recurring 8%
revenue, high margins, network effects, similar distribution, Lodging
8% Fuel
scale) & overlapping customer bases. 44%
"Beyond Fuel”, faster-growth platforms in corporate Tolls
payments & Brazil, and the prospect for more of what 14%
FleetCor does best (cross-sell & accretive M&A). Corporate
Payments
19%
Key to modeling FleetCor is uncovering the 2-year organic, FLT is deserving of its premium multiple given a combination of
macro-neutral (ex-fuel & FX) growth rate consistent organic performance and accretive M&A
2018A 2019E 1Q20E 2Q20E 3Q20E 4Q20E 2020E 2021E 2022E FLT NTM PE FLT Average FLT is currently trading at a ~10%
WEX NTM PE WEX Average premium to WEX on a P/E basis, while
Total net revenue 2,433 2,657 711 725 774 783 2,993 3,302 3,629
WEX historically (from late 2016)
YoY 13% 9% 14% 13% 14% 11% 13% 10% 10% traded at a premium until April 2019
23.7x
YoY organic - 11% 13% 10% 11% 12% 11% 10% 10%
YoY macro neutral - 11% 15% 12% 13% 10% 12% 10% 10%
YoY macro neutral organic 11% 12% 12% 11% 10% 10% 11% 10% 10%
2-year macro neutral organic - 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% 23% 21% 20%
21.5x
Inorganic % 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0%
"Like for like" adjustments 61 13 - - - - - - -
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 46
CS Rating UP
Western Union (WU) CS Target Price $26
Hard-to-replicate network, but slow growth and competition
Stock now trading at a ~3x-turn premium vs. historical Western Union receives ~80% of revenue via the core C2C business,
average and well off its low of ~9x (market appears to have while the C2C segment makes up a single-digit component (2019E)
digested recent good news, i.e., 3-year targets provided at
B2B
investor day, October 2019). 7%
Other
Continued competitive pressures from both incumbents and 10% C2C
Domestic
FinTechs and a declining US transfer business (~6% of Transfer
revenue). 6%
Bullish on the underlying platform/asset value, but we await C2C Cross-
Border
either a more attractive entry point or further signs of traction 77%
in online white-labelling (TAM expansive partnering).
We parse out Western Union’s 2-year organic, ex-FX, ex-Argentina Western Union has benefited from multiple expansion following the
inflation benefit, and model the LSD growth (in-line with guidance) announcement of its cost-savings initiative and 3-year targets
2018 2019E 1Q20E 2Q20E 3Q20E 4Q20E 2020E 2021E 2022E
+1 Std. Dev
Total revenue 5,590 5,315 1,273 1,333 1,333 1,353 5,292 5,425 5,585 12.6x
YoY 1% (5%) (5%) (1%) 2% 2% (0%) 3% 3%
YoY FX Neutral 3% (1%) (2%) 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3%
YoY organic 1% (1%) 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
YoY organic FX Neutral 3% 3% 5% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%
2-year organic FX neutral 3% 7% 6% 8% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% -1 Std. Dev
Argentina Inflation benefit 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10.1x
YoY organic FX Neutral ex-Argentina benefit
2% 1% 4% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%
2-year FX neutral ex-Argentina benefit 2% 4% 3% 6% 4% 3% 4% 5% 5%
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 47
WEX (WEX) CS Rating
CS Target Price
R
-
Exposed to attractive FinTech end markets
Positive on the underlying businesses and the longer term. WEX business is heavier fuel (Fleet Solutions) and US vs. FleetCor,
with Corporate Payments approaching~10% of revenue
Expectations for organic deceleration in the Fleet segment
Corporate
beginning Q2 2020 (initial lapping of Chevron and Shell, Solutions
alongside a noted recent weakness in SSS at -2.5% in Q3 10%
Health &
2019), suggesting slower growth existing 2020. Travel & Employee
Corporate Benefits
Travel
Higher relative fuel exposure vs. FleetCor (~25% of revenue 16%
Solutions
26%
14%
vs. ~14%).
Corporate Payments revenue approaching ~10% of total (vs. Fleet
Solutions
~20% for FleetCor). 60%
For WEX, similar to FLT, we look at the 2-year organic, macro-neutral, FLT and WEX have swapped premiums over the past few years (WEX
growth; 2H 2020 Fleet segment lapping 2 large portfolio conversions more of a premium in 2018 vs. FLT in 2019)
t
FLT NTM PE FLT Average FLT is currently trading at a ~10%
2018A 2019E 1Q20E 2Q20E 3Q20E 4Q20E 2020E 2021E 2022E
WEX NTM PE WEX Average premium to WEX on a P/E basis, while
Fleet solutions segment revenue 975 1,060 265 285 296 301 1,148 1,203 1,260 WEX historically (from late 2016)
traded at a premium until April 2019
YoY 19% 9% 14% 7% 7% 7% 8% 5% 5% 23.7x
"Macro Adjusted" ex-FX, ex-Fuel 12% 12% 12% 8% 7% 7% 8% 5% 5%
Organic FXN (ex-FX, ex-Fuel, ex-M&A) 12% 10% 9% 5% 7% 7% 7% 5% 5%
2-year Organic FX Neutral 17% 22% 13% 18% 19% 18% 17% 12% 10%
FX impact % 0% (1%) (0%) (0%) (0%) 0% (0%) 0% 0%
21.5x
Fuel impact % 7% (2%) 2% (1%) 0% 0% 0% (0%) (0%)
Inorganic % 0% 1% 3% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 48
Verra Mobility (VRRM) CS Rating
CS Target Price
OP
$17.5
Leader in tolling payments & traffic safety solutions
Share leader in both segments, and we expect sustained Verra Mobility is split roughly ~60/40 across its two segments, and it is
mid-single-digit+ growth (in-line with medium-term guidance the undisputed share leader in both
of Government +2-4%, Commercial +6-8%, with a boost via Title and
Other revenue
Red Light
5%
M&A, Europe, and new initiatives). registration 15%
3%
Future opportunities ahead with NYC school-bus cameras Violations
management Speed
Government
and congestion pricing in other markets (currently taking a 7%
Solutions
9%
“wait-and-see” approach on congestion). Commercial
Services
38%
62%
We are optimistic on the European expansion (~$350mm School Stop Sign /
Bus Lane
TAM), given initial agreements (tolling authorities, rental car 14%
companies) and relationships with US Rental Car Companies Toll management
47%
(existing customers) compose 40%+ of the market.
We discretely model components of Government Solutions given Valuation history (P/E on a NTM-basis) since SPAC merger in March
numerous moving parts (NYC schools, Miami and Texas red light, etc.) 2019 (post the acquisition of HTA, largest competitor, in 2018)
Government Solutions segment 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Red light 76 68 61 60 58
Reported YoY 2% (10%) (11%) (2%) (2%)
+1 Std. Dev
Discrete contract impacts (bps) -271 bps -768 bps -880 bps 0 bps 0 bps 18.2x
Speed (school, city) 36 41 66 91 98
Reported YoY 4% 15% 63% 37% 8%
Discrete contract impacts - NYC (bps) - 1360 bps 6175 bps 3559 bps 700 bps
YoY ex-discrete impacts 4% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other (school stop, bus lane) 31 34 38 41 45 -1 Std. Dev
Reported YoY 9% 10% 10% 9% 8% 15.1x
Total segment revenue (ex-product) 142 144 165 192 201
Reported YoY 4% 1% 15% 16% 5%
Implied underlying organic YoY 5% -3% -2% 4% 4%
Total discrete contact impacts (bps) -146 bps -22 bps 1391 bps 1474 bps 369 bps
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 49
CS Rating OP
Repay (RPAY) CS Target Price $19
Integrated Payments in niche verticals, and expanding beyond
Repay’s card volumes are most heavily weighted toward personal
We expect further debit card penetration of existing verticals, loans (consumer finance), with auto loans the 2nd largest component
entry into new verticals, new merchants & ISV partners to Other
B2B 5%
drive organic growth. 5% Autos
Retail 30%
6%
Entry into new verticals (B2B, Healthcare).
Benefits from scale and processing cost leverage (in part due
to TriSource acquisition, insourcing prior back-end partner); Consumer
Receivables
expect gross margin expansion with flattish EBITDA margins. 3%
Valuation reasonable for a ~mid- to high-teens top-line
grower with a continued boost from M&A.
Consumer
Finance
51%
Repay organic 2-year card payment volume build – we model organic Valuation history (EV/EBITDA on a NTM-basis) since SPAC merger in
growth in the high teens, plus ~3,100bps of inorganic contributions Q3 2019 (attractive vs. expectations for mid-high teens topline)
2018 2019E 1Q20E 2Q20E 3Q20E 4Q20E 2020E 2021E
Card payment volume ($) 7,452 10,608 4,001 3,816 3,894 3,987 15,697 18,052 +1 Std. Dev
22.7x
QoQ - - 20% -5% 2% 2% - -
YoY 42% 42% 64% 72% 49% 20% 48% 15%
2-year - 84% 96% 99% 88% 87% 90% 63% -1 Std. Dev
Organic Volume growth 21% 24% 19% 18% 17% 16% 17% 15% 20.9x
2-year organic volume - 45% 39% 45% 44% 39% 42% 32%
Inorganic Volume 1,124 1,342 1,110 1,200 830 120 3,260 -
Inorganic Volume growth 21% 18% 46% 54% 32% 4% 31% -
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 50
International Money Express (IXMI) CS Rating
CS Target Price
NEUTRAL
$14.5
Focused money remittance provider
Operates within a large addressable market and is a share Intermex sources ~2/3rds of its volume (2019E) via the US-into-Mexico
corridor (maintains #2 share in largest remittance corridor in the world)
gainer within that opportunity (high-quality tech, targeted
geographical focus). Honduras
El Salvador
5%
SSA Canada
1% 0%
6%
Numerous nascent initiatives in motion (Africa inbound, Remaining
6%
Canada outbound, white-labeling with Latin American banks,
general purpose reloadable [GPR] card) to support growth.
Historically gained incremental share at ~40% in the US-
Mexico corridor (~60% of volume) but a deceleration noted
in YTD 2019 numbers (Q3 2019) to ~27% (though we note Guatemala
23%
remittance volumes are traditionally volatile on a month-to- Mexico
59%
month basis due to exogenous factors)
Intermex remittance volume build – we model continued share gains in Valuation history (EV/EBITDA on a NTM-basis) since SPAC merger in
its two biggest remittance corridors (US-Mexico, US-Guatemala) Q3 2018 (trading at a low absolute level, and more so vs. growth)
2017 2018 2019E 2020E
US -> Mexico Inbound Volume ($b) $ 29 $ 32 $ 35 $ 37
Growth 11% 8% 6%
+1 Std. Dev
IMXI share 15% 17% 18% 19%
9.1x
IMXI Mexico Volume 4,321 5,617 6,315 6,879
Growth - 30% 12% 9%
Incremental share 38% 41% 27% 27%
% of IMXI volume 63% 63% 60% 56%
US -> Guatemala Inbound Volume 7.4 8.4 9.4 10.4
Growth 0 12% 11%
-1 Std. Dev
IMXI share 22% 24% 25% 27%
6.9x
IMXI Guatemala Volume 1,601 2,016 2,390 2,773
Growth 0% 26% 19% 16%
Incremental share 41% 42% 37% 37%
% of IMXI volume 23% 23% 23% 23%
Source: Company reports, FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 51
Payments & Payments-related FinTech private company map
US-focused mapping, including select global/regional platforms
$41b in global FinTech investment in 2018 and $25b YTD in 2019 through Q3; $120b in the last 5 years.
Merchant Acquiring/Service Providers Bank IT Neo / Challenger Banks
PayFac enablement iPOS ISO/Acquirers/PSPs Core Processors BaaS Additional Services Consumer Digital Banking
Amaryllis CitiXsys Billing Tree PayNearMe Alkami 11:FS Foundry Allied Payment Network Mistral Mobile Europe US ROW
Finix Payments Revel BlueSnap PaySafe Correlation Avaloq Apiture nCino Atom Bank (UK) Aspiration :86 400 (AUS)
Infinicept ShopKeep Checkout.com Pineapple Payments Finastra Bankable Blend Synapse Curve (UK) Chime Douugh (AUS)
Payrix SumUp Clearent Priority Payment Finxact Cambr Backbase Thought Machine Monese (UK) Current Klar (MEX)
Other Toast Fattmerchant Real Page Mambu ClearBank ClearSale Treasury Prime Monzo (UK) Dave.com NuBank (Brazil)
AuthVia TouchBistro Gravity Payments Shift4 Neocova Deposit Solutions Fisoc Vesta N26 (GER) Greenlight OlaMoney (India)
Emergent Upserve Merrick Bank Stripe NYMBUS Fidor Bank Hydrogen Platform Numbrs (UK) Marcus (GS) Volt Bank (AUS)
Flow Veloce POS (CAN) NETS Tidal Commerce Railsbank Raisin (GER) MoneyLion Xinja (AUS)
Flutterwave Vend North American Bancard Titanium Payments solarisBank Revolut (UK) Stash
Rapyd Nuvei Tech. Tribe Starling Bank Starling Bank (UK) Varo Money
RS2 Paragon Payments Yapstone Treezor Zenus
Text2Pay
PPRO
ReCharge Payments
Digital Lending Cryptocurrency Personal B2B Payments
Remittances Issuer Processing Networks
SMB Lending / Banking Alternative Consumer Lending (wallets, payments) Finances AP / AR Corp. cards & Exp. Mgmt. Cross-Border
BlueVine Europe US NIUM (formerly InstaRem) Binance Acorns CoreCard Early Warning (Zelle) AvidXchange Brex Airwallex
FundBox Habito Affirm Remitly BitPay Albert Galileo Fin. TechnologiesFaster Payments (UK) Billtrust Divvy CurrencyCloud
FundingOptions Klarna Avant RTGS.global Blockchain Betterment Extend RTP (The Clearning House) HighRadius Expensify EBANX
Greensill Kreditech Clara Transferwise Circle Deserve i2c RuPay (India) MineralTree Radius Payment Flywire
Joust LoanDepot Earnest World Remit Coinbase DriveWealth InComm Smartlink Modulr Tide Payoneer
Judo Bank Elevate Dash Ibotta Marqeta UnionPay (China) PayFi Payroll Ping-Pong
Kabbage ROW Laybuy Connectivity / Moven Stripe Issuing Paystand BambooHR Ripple
C2B & P2P
Loan Builder Credit Culture (SG) LendingHome Payments APIs Robinhood VPay Super Apps & Tipalti Gusto Veem
Neptune Financial Creditas (Brazil) Marlette (Best Egg) Dwolla Button Wealthsimple (CAN) Diversified Kickfin Instant Payments
Oak North Simpl (India) Prosper NETELLER Mobeewave Weatlhfront Ant Financial PayActiv Ingo Money
On Deck Capital Other SoFi PayQwick Plaid Go-Jek PayFi
Payability Credit Karma Upstart Skrill Tink Grab
Built Technologies Trustly Token Paytm
Toss (Korea) Truelayer Rappi
Verse (Europe) Yapily
Yodlee
Source: , Visa, CB Insights, Credit Suisse research. 24 January 2020 52
The Credit Suisse Payments, Processors, & FinTech Top 40 Industry Themes
40 topics we expect to be top of mind for investors and industry participants
Global eCommerce & Software-led Payments B2B/Corporate Payments
1. Global eCommerce as a key source of growth 24. B2B payments coming of age
2. eCommerce (and omnichannel) acquiring platforms 25. Virtual cards in B2B Payments
3. Secure Remote Commerce (SRC) 26. Next leg of B2B payments puts SMB services in focus
4. Checkout buttons/digital wallets
5. Increasing complexity in global eComm/Omnichannel Back-End Banking Innovation
6. Fraud & chargebacks on card-based transactions
27. “Faster payments” & “RTP” become more real
7. Payout capabilities coming into focus
28. Issuer Processing key drivers and overview
8. PayFacs and the rise of the “aggregator” model
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
9. Rationale for software-enabled payments
30. Modern Issuing Platforms
NextGen FinTech Ecosystems
Regulation & Litigation
10. Continued consolidation and scaling of platforms
11. Open Banking (APIs) and Account Connectivity 31. Two-Factor Authentication Implications
12. BigTech in FinTech, highlighting Apple’s FinTech efforts 32. Trends in Global Payments Regulation
13. Unbanked and Underbanked opportunity for US FinTechs 33. European Payments Regulation
14. P2P as a customer acquisition and engagement tool 34. US vs. International FinTech regulations and market dynamics
15. Global remittance market innovation 35. Industrial Loan Company (ILC) bank licenses for US FinTechs
16. FinTech-driven credit (consumer offerings)
Threats to Monitor for the Existing Ecosystem
17. FinTech-driven credit for merchants (micro & SMB lending)
18. Digitally native expectations 36. Amazon’s building blocks in Payments & FinTech
Drivers of Cash-to-Card Conversion 37. Alipay & WeChat expand acceptance beyond China
38. Cryptocurrency impact on the payments ecosystem
19. “Push-to-card” payments unlocking new payment flows 39. Emergence of modern platforms in EM
20. Contactless payments 40. National payment schemes, alternatives to V and MA
21. Loyalty & rewards becoming easier to spend
22. Long runway for card penetration in both EM & DM markets
23. Cross-border payments volumes
24 January 2020
Global eCommerce & Software-led Payments
1. Global eCommerce as a key source of growth
eCommerce a mid-high teens grower, Marketplaces even faster
It is a fast-growing TAM overall, which (depending on the source and definition of what is in scope) generally suggests a ~$3.5tr global
market growing ~mid-teens to high teens (vs. ~4-5% PCE).
One way to segment eCommerce is Marketplace vs. Non-marketplace (direct merchant). When viewed in this manner, Marketplace
eCommerce is a faster-growth sub-segment (~low-20% CAGR through 2022 vs. ~mid-teens for the “rest” of eCommerce); a further,
even faster-growing sub-segment is cross-border eCommerce (addressed separately in this presentation).
We note that China meaningfully skews these data given it makes up ~50% of global eCommerce and is dominated by Alibaba-owned
marketplaces (Marketplaces make up ~68% of eCommerce including China, and we estimate Marketplaces make up ~50% of global
eCommerce excluding China).
Global eCommerce is a ~$3.5tr global market, with Marketplaces-based eCommerce sales expected to be a key driver of total market growth
(~23% CAGR 2018-2022 vs. direct merchant eCommerce growing more at a high-single-digit pace)
$6.0tr
Marketplaces ~68%
of eCommerce (or
$5.0tr ~50% ex-China) $1.3tr
$1.3tr
$4.0tr
$1.2tr
$3.0tr $1.1tr
$1.0tr
$2.0tr $4.3tr
$0.8tr $3.5tr
$0.8tr $2.9tr
$1.0tr $2.3tr
$1.9tr
$1.5tr
$1.1tr
$0.0tr
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Direct merchant Marketplace
Source: Payoneer, eMarketer, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020
1. Global eCommerce as a key source of growth
Many large, developed markets still at just ~10-15% penetration
The global retail eCommerce market is about $3.5tr today, although Numerous large, developed markets still at just ~10-15% penetration
$1.8tr of that is in China, a meaningful portion of which is considered of retail sales, suggesting meaningful eCommerce runway remains
less addressable to many payments platforms. 40%
35%
35%
In China, the majority of volumes are done through Alipay and WeChat 30%
closed-loop systems, particularly with Alibaba [Tmall land Taobao] and 25% 22% 22%
JD.com as the dominant marketplaces.
20%
15%
Still low levels of eCommerce penetration in large developed markets 9% 9% 10% 11% 11%
10%
(including the US), particularly when viewed vs. penetration levels that 4%
are 2-3x higher in South Korea, UK, and China, suggest stable 5%
growth ahead. 0%
Italy Japan Germany France Canada US South UK China
Korea
A subset of drivers supportive of growth persistence include:
Global eCommerce is approaching ~$4tr in annual volumes, growing
at a mid- to high-teens pace (albeit bolstered by China)
1. Continued faster delivery times (supported by improvements in
logistics infrastructure), Global Retail eCommerce ($tr) YoY
$7tr 27% $6.5 30%
26%
24% 24% $5.7
$6tr 23%
2. Rising mobile penetration and conversion rates (supported by 21%
25%
$4.9
stored/tokenized credentials and eWallets), and $5tr 19%
17% 20%
16%
$4tr $3.5 $4.2 15%
3. Increasing availability of alternative payments methods (both for $2.9 15%
$3tr $2.4
country-specific use cases and for the underbanked). $1.9 10%
$2tr 1.548
$1.2
$1tr 5%
$0 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Source: Company reports, eMarketer, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 56
1. Global eCommerce as a key source of growth
Cross-border the fastest growing sub-segment of eCommerce
Cross-border eCommerce is becoming an increasingly important component of the overall online commerce market and as a driver
of cross-border payments volumes (cross-border eCommerce now makes up ~50% of cross-border card volumes for the
networks vs. ~70% five years ago, with travel-related purchases comprising the remaining portion).
Cross-border eCommerce growth: (1) Zion Market Research expects cross-border eCommerce to grow at a +27% CAGR
2018-2027E; (2) Forrester expects a +17% CAGR (vs. +12% for overall B2C eCommerce) and estimates cross-border
eCommerce is ~20% of the market, with ~2/3rds of cross-border done via marketplaces; and (3) Worldpay had forecast ~25%
CAGR 2015-2020 vs. ~16% CAGR for eCommerce overall.
Reasons for the growth: (1) improved localization (language, look and feel); (2) more payments method choices; (3) means to gain
access to goods not available in local markets; (4) means to benefit from lower priced goods; and (5) improved logistics.
Cross-border eCommerce is expected to grow 2x broader eCommerce (~mid-high
20%s vs. ~mid-teens for eCommerce overall), per Zion Market Research
$6,000
~$4.9tr
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000 ~$560b
$-
2018E 2027E
Source: Zion Market Research, Forrester, Worldpay, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020
1. Global eCommerce as a key source of growth
US market focus – eComm still growing 3-4x faster vs. in-store
US eCommerce market is approaching ~$600b and has been growing roughly mid-teens (expected to
continue at a similar pace).
It represents a meaningful growth driver for Visa and Mastercard given card mix for eCommerce transactions
is significantly higher vs. in-store in the US (~roughly 85% vs. ~50%).
eCommerce is still only ~12-13% of Mastercard’s total volume, per its most recent disclosures.
Amazon US GMV (CS est.) for 2019E is roughly ~$210b, which implies Amazon makes up ~35% of the US
eCommerce market (but will make up ~55% of total growth).
North American eCommerce payments by card were~70% of
US Retail eCommerce sits at ~$600b today but is projected to reach
transactions (2018); when combined with eWallet transactions, it
~$1tr by 2023 (growing at a ~mid-teens CAGR)
suggests card payments are a part of ~85% of eCommerce
US Retail eCommerce ($b) YoY Growth
All Other, $1,200b 18%
11% 16% 16%
15% 16%
14% 14%
$1,000b 13% 14% 14% 13% $970
eWallet, 20% $859 13% 14%
$800b $759 12%
$669
$587 10%
Card, 69% $600b $515
We estimate $450 8%
~80% of eWallet $389
$400b $343 6%
is comprised of $298
cards 4%
$200b
2%
$0 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Source: eMarketer, Global Payments Report, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020
1. Global eCommerce as a key source of growth
PayPal’s “True TAM” for its core business
Given various data sources include or exclude portions of “eCommerce” (for PayPal specifically – although broadly applicable to many
other payments platforms as well), we constructed a “True TAM” that we estimate to be ~$4tr today, growing toward ~$8tr by 2023E.
Our PayPal “True TAM” model is inclusive of global eCommerce, eTravel, eFood delivery, eTicketing, online charitable donations, ride-
sharing, crowdfunding, gaming, & streaming subscriptions (does not include bill-pay, Alibaba & JD.com, and the majority of Amazon).
This adds up to confidence in the persistence of growth (often underappreciated in payments) and annual compounding.
For PayPal specifically, although broadly applicable to many other payments platforms, we constructed a “True TAM” that we
estimate to be ~$4tr today, growing toward ~$8tr by 2023E
$9.0 14%
Global Crowdfunding
$8.0
13% Streaming Media
Subscriptions
$7.0
Online Charitable Donations
$6.0 12%
Food Delivery
$5.0
11% Ride-Sharing
$4.0
Online Travel
$3.0 10%
eCommerce, ex AMZN Core
$2.0 Markets, BABA & JD
9% Online Event Ticketing
$1.0
Video Gaming
$- 8%
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Source: Company data, eMarketer, Phocuswright, Euromonitor, ResearchAndMarkets.com, nonprofitsource.com, Statista, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020
1. Global eCommerce as a key source of growth
True TAM assumptions and rationale
Global Category TAM Assumptions & Rationale 2018-2023E CAGR 2019E Size ($b) % of TAM
eCommerce, ex AMZN Euromonitor Global Online Retail Estimates. CS estimates for Amazon (Stephen Ju), excluding Amazon Core markets, assuming they represent 80%
17% $1,952 42%
Core Markets, BABA & JD of AMZN 3P & 1P ex-shipping). Assume BABA and JD eCommerce volume as unaddressable and GMV forecasted with consensus estimates.
Global online travel forecasts informed by CS Global OTA Industry Model (Stephen Ju), and is inclusive of assumptions around vacation rentals and
Online Travel 8% $790 17%
sharing economy rentals.
Assumes Uber and Lyft represent 50% of the global ride-sharing market, with their global share declining slightly in each year in our forecast
Ride-Sharing 27% $131 3%
(assumes additional regional competitors gain share). We utilize Uber & Lyft ride-sharing consensus estimates.
Euromonitor estimates for Global Food Delivery market size (i.e.,GrubHub, UberEats, DoorDash, Postmates, Delivery Hero, Takeaway.com,
Food Delivery 32% $180 4%
Deliveroo, Just Eat, restaurant websites, etc.).
Online Event Ticketing Assumes ~$47b market size in 2017, with a ~7% CAGR through the forecast period. Market sizing base sourced via ResearchAndMarkets.com. 7% $54 1%
Online Charitable Forecasts assume US Charitable donation market has 50% global market share and grows ~7% annually (a slight premium to historical trend growth
7% $923 20%
Donations in the US of 5%). US market historical figures sourced from nonprofitssource.com.
We utilize CS revenue estimates for Netflix (Douglas Mitchelson) and Spotify (Brian Russo), and assume these two platforms represent 75% and
Streaming Media
40% of the 2018 global video and music streaming markets, respectively. We then assume slight annual share loss (i.e., additional platforms grow 22% $50 1%
Subscriptions
faster off of a smaller base, gaining share) of the global video and music streaming markets, respectively.
Category includes in-game purchase of virtual goods (e.g., points, tools, additions) that video game players use to enhance their gaming experience.
Video gaming 14% $95 2%
We assume a ~14% CAGR through the forecast period, with our assumptions informed by CS video game industry model ( Stephen Ju).
Statista estimates for reward-based crowdfunding, and pre-financing (e.g., Kickstarter), ex-China. Forecast assumes the US, UK, France and
Crowdfunding
Canada represent the majority of the global crowdfunding market, with their global share declining slightly each year in our forecast (assumes other
(Reward-based & Pre- 10% $522 11%
countries gain share). We utilized Kickstarter project funding mix data (successfully funded projects, categories by dollars raised), to inform our
financing, ex-China)
addressable assumption.
Total 14% $4,696 100%
Source: Company data, eMarketer, Phocuswright, Euromonitor, ResearchAndMarkets.com, nonprofitsource.com, Statista, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020
2. Global eCommerce (and omnichannel) acquiring platforms
Large eCommerce payments providers (summary)
eCommerce payments providers compete on:
– Authorization & fraud rates – Omnichannel capabilities
– Global acceptance methods – Vertical or segment expertise
– Conversion rates – Additional software & services
– Ease of integration – Pricing
– Ease of ongoing operations – Service & support
Stripe has become a much more meaningful competitor, for both SMB and larger multi-nationals (now ~40 countries of local acquiring,
25+ unique forms of payment acceptance [aiming toward 50 in 2020], 100+ payout countries by 2020). Payments volume has reached
“hundreds of billions”, headcount is at ~2.5k, and valuation most recently $35b – all indicative of a more scaled competitor. Our industry
discussions suggests that Stripe has been appearing in and winning more RFPs, armed with its more fulsome global capabilities, ease of
integration, and access via a single API. Innovation cadence resulting in numerous new offerings (e.g., Stripe Issuing, Stripe Corporate
Cards, chargeback protection, Stripe Capital, Stripe Terminal for omnichannel, etc.). Leading marketplaces offering in Stripe Connect.
~$290b "Hundreds of billions" ~$230b ~$400b ~$160b ~$375b
(CS est. based on an
2019E "Hundreds of billions"
(based on $900mm assumed lower yield
eCommerce (disclosed by management,
+25-30% YoY (CS est. based on legacy eComm & Omni given mix of volume that
we estimate that volumes (Adjusts volume down
volumes (inclusive of gateway and WP disclosures, $279b revenue, adjusted to is processing only, along
are slightly below those of ~10% [assumption] to
PayPal button in 2017, assumed 20% ~$720mm ex-network with disclosure that
Adyen & Braintree when remove offline/in-store
transactions) YoY growth in 2018 and fees, grossed up eCommerce was
including PayPal volumes)
2019) assuming ~50bps net ~$500mm in revenue in
transactions)
acquiring spread) 2016 growing
mid-teens)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020
2. Global eCommerce (and omnichannel) acquiring platforms
Large eCommerce payments providers (detail)
Metric
$31-$47b (CS est.), depending on extent to which PayPal button $35b $43b acquisition price ~$60b Global Business Solutions (GBS) was ~2/3rd of First Data revenue,
Valuation ~$26b
transactions done on Braintree merchant sites are included (September 2019 financing) (now a part of FIS) (when combined with TSS acquisition) acquired by Fiserv for ~$22b in 2019
~$375b
2019E "Hundreds of billions" ~$230b ~$400b ~$160b
~$290b estimate, +25-30% YoY (CS est. based on an assumed lower yield given mix of volume that is
eCommerce (disclosed by management, we estimate that volumes are slightly below (Adjusts volume down ~10% (assumption) to remove offline/in-store (CS est. based on legacy WP disclosures, $279b in 2017, assumed 20% (based on $900mm eComm & Omni revenue, adjusted to ~$780mm ex-
(inclusive of gateway and PayPal button transactions) processing only, along with disclosure that eCommerce was ~$500mm in
volume Adyen & Braintree when including PayPal transactions) volumes) YoY growth in 2018 and 2019) network fees, grossed up assuming ~50bps net acquiring spread)
revenue in 2016 growing mid-teens)
- 130+ currencies, 45+ countries - 33 countries of local presence (including local support staff on the
- ~40 countries by end 2019 (with local/domestic acquiring) - 56% of revenue from Europe in 2018 - 50+ countries and "hundreds" of currencies", with noted more recent
- Available for merchants based in US, Canada, Australia, Europe, - UK/Europe heavy given legacy Worldpay roots ground serving local merchants); potential to move to ~38 supported by
Geographic - Aiming for 95+ acceptance countries (domestically) - 29% North America expansion into Mexico, Australia, and China
Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand - 146 countries, 126 currencies TSYS physical locations
- Gaining some traction with merchants in Europe and Asia - 15% AsiaPac, LatAm, and Rest of World - Over 100 countries with First Data clients (including in-store)
- Merchant base more US-focused - eCommerce business in 60 markets, 135+ currencies
25+ unique forms of payment globally by year-end 2019 (aiming toward
Acceptance ~25 unique forms of payment globally, given business is largely US- 300+ payments methods
doubling this number to 50 during 2020); first non-bank to integrate with 250+ payment methods 140 payment methods 250+ payment methods
methods focused; PPRO investment/partnership has the potential to expand LPMs (potentially expanding due to recent agreement with ACI Worldwide)
Cartes Bancaires (France)
- 58 owned domestic acquiring licenses
- Regional banking relationships for processing (banks with acquiring
- Differentiation via local market, in-store presence at scale (i.e., local - 50-55 markets "which we are licensed to acquire from merchants",
Processing licenses), e.g., Wells Fargo and Chase Paymentech in the US, AIB - Began ramping efforts to get local licenses in 2013/2014 - Offers direct domestic /local acquiring in 58 markets (with another 88
- Stripe serves as a merchant acquirer (direct licenses via the card merchants doing in-store in ~33 markets, including local support for all partially with owned licenses and partially via sponsorships (with plans to
partners & Merchant Services in Europe, NAB in Australia, etc. - Adyen owns direct licenses in Europe with cross-border capabilities)
networks) in virtually all markets (including all of Europe) merchants, including SMB) expand self-sponsorship in a few new markets in 2020); Act as a direct
licensing - PayPal does not serve as an acquirer in any market (acts as either a - Applying for a US bank license (faster merchant payout) - Just obtained an acquiring license in New Zealand (March 2019)
- Unified Commerce Platform (UCP) provides a single omni-channel acquirer and manage own sponsors in these countries
PayFac or ISO, depending on merchant size)
payments capability via a single API integration
- Wide range, including SMB and large merchants (e.g., Uber, Airbnb) - Spans full gamut of merchants, with a focus on start-ups/SMB - Serve a range of merchants from the largest retailers and platforms
- Self-service service largely aimed at SMB, but ability to scale with larger community, but also working with enterprise level merchants (Lyft, - Focused on enterprise (large, global, eCommerce and omni-channel) - Larger merchants, many of which require live contact/support (PayPal, Yapstone, etc.) to smaller business via Clover (although not quite
Customer - Focused almost exclusively on the SMB segment, along with multi-
merchants Target, UnderArmour, etc.) - Expanding into mid-market - Cross-border leader globally into the micro-merchant segment, given even Clover's average merchant is
segment national corporations that require cross-border capabilities
- Within the smaller merchant category, tends to skew more toward SMB - Shopify Payments partner (expands start-up/SMB reach) - Not focused on SMB and/or micro merchant segment - Global digital retailers and leading online travel sites larger than Square's); gains SMB exposure via bank distribution channel
vs. startup vs. Stripe) - Increasing large enterprise wins (RFP processes) (Bank of America, Wells Fargo, PNC, etc.)
Number of - "23mm merchants on the platform" (inclusive of standalone PayPal - 3.4k as of December 2017 (last disclosure); this was down from 4.5k
- "Millions of businesses on Stripe" - ~1mm merchants in total for WP (inclusive of offline only merchants) - 2.5mm merchant locations via Global Payments; 820k via TSYS - 6mm+ merchant locations
merchants button-only merchants) December 2016 (focused on higher quality merchants); no longer disclosed
- 2.9% + $0.30 in the US for standard, smaller merchant pricing
- 2.9% + $0.30 for full-stack in the US Interchange ++ for larger merchants, and could employ a bundled
(although larger merchants and/or platforms are able to negotiate based
- Lower in Europe (e.g., 1.9% + €0.30) Interchange ++ Mix of bundled and interchange plus Priced to value given high touch sales support approach for smaller merchants; processing only fees (either a small bps
on volumes, which is similar to competitors)
Pricing Approach - Priced differently by region (volume discounts for large customers (net yield ~22bps, which is a blend of fully acquired and gateway, ~70% figure or cents per transaction for processing only relationships);
- Lower in Europe (e.g., 1.4% + €0.25 for European cards, 2.9% +
negotiated) vs. 30% mix) (net yield ~31bps on legacy WP eCommerce business) ~80bps acquiring spread competitive on pricing, in part due to scale (i.e., ~40% share in the US,
€0.25 for non-European cards)
- $0.10 per trans + $49 per month for gateway largest acquirer globally)
- Priced differently in each region
- Stripe Billing (recurring business models), Atlas (incorporation, tax & legal - AuthMax to increase auth rates for CNP - 60+ lenders connected via API (merchant cash advance, no B/S risk)
services), Radar (machine learning applied to fraud), Chargeback Protection - RevenueProtect risk management solution (being offered to merchants - Card issuance capabilities - In-store API-based terminals - Clover POS for in-store capabilities (omnichannel)
- Braintree Extend (contextual commerce/sell on another platform) (40bps "insurance"), Stripe Terminal (programmable offline POS), Stripe separately, including non-processing clients) - in-store offerings (omnichannel solutions) - Card issuance capabilities - Owns both STAR and Accel debit networks (low cost debit routing),
Additional
- In-store payments (US, UK, Australia, although set to expand due to Sigma (business data platform), Stripe Issuing (card issuance, including - In-store payments and terminal (Unified Commerce), customer insights, - Data dashboard for customer insights, etc. - Issuer processing business (potential fro improved authorization rates, along with Acculynk (least-cost routing gateway supporting optimized
services
iZettle acquisition) corporate cards), Stripe Capital (lending via bank partner), Premium revenue optimization, and other features - Increased data (FIS issuer processing & banking relationships) to aid in SCA capabilities, economics) online transaction routing) helps to prioritize based on approvals, costs, etc.
Support (for complex cases), although support is offered to all merchants - Launched card issuance business November 2019 increasing authorization rates (management expects ~200bps potential - Payroll services (e.g., Heartland Payroll) - Card issuance capabilities
(with phone-based support available as well depending on case) increase, from mid-80%s to high 80%s) - High-touch local support in 33 markets
- Self-service via Drop-in ("a few lines of code") for smaller
- Salesforce on commission Combination of bank partners (both revenue share & JVs), direct sales, and
merchants/developers or Customer UI - Growing Business Development / Salesforce (largely self-serve to - Salesforce on commission, including a Global eCommerce sales team - 3.5k direct sales people (including ~3k from Global Payments and ~500
Go-to-market - Must ensure regional involvement other partners (agents, ISOs, ISV through CardConnect and BluePay); S-1
- Combined salesforce with PayPal means a greater presence in countries developers/startups, but high-touch for larger merchants) (expanding in 2019) from TSYS)
- Work streams to ensure sales & engineering coordination filing from 2015 suggests ~2.3k sales people
outside core US/Europe
Stripe Connect (marketplaces & platforms), along with recently expanded Noted emphasis on Marketplaces, on-demand
Adyen for Platforms, which aims to smooth onboarding of merchants, In addition to working with Marketplaces merchants (pure-play Works with marketplaces, in keeping aligned with overall company
Marketplaces Braintree Marketplace offering, bolstered by the acquisition of payout capabilities (aiming for 100+ payout countries [over local bank platforms, and aggregators at 2018 investor day, along with capabilities in
funds movement/payouts, etc. easy and compliant; Recent notable client eCommerce), also offers programs for Payment Facilitators (onboarding strategy of focusing on more niche verticals, SMB, and multi-nationals,
offering Hyperwallet for improving the payout capabilities rails], 90% users with instant payouts, and 1-2 day payouts everywhere, digital disbursements, etc.; Programs tailed for Payment Facilitators as
win in eBay sub-merchants, collecting payments, reducing risk, etc.) where services and added capabilities are valued and compensated
per Stripe Sessions 2019 in SF) well (e.g., PayPal as a notable customer)
~2,500
~11k for Global Payments; ~13k for TSYS (TSYS includes issuer
Employees 500+ (vs. ~2k+ at Stripe Sessions September 2019, 2.5k end-year 2019 aim ~900 as of end 2018 ~8.2k as of end 2018 ~22k at First Data (where merchant acquiring was ~2/3 of the business)
processing business)
per CEO, 11FS June 2019)
- Notable clients in Dell, Lyft, Apple, Yapstone, PayPal, etc.
- GPTN foundation (Global Payments & Treasury Network) - Will customize for clients, "consultancy services" on market expansion - A single integration to reach global, omnichannel capabilities (including
- Vertical specific expertise and high-touch customer support, even for
- Large investors include Tiger Global, Capital G, General Catalyst, etc. - No single merchant customization (unless applicable to broader platform) - Defines eCommerce as pure play eCommerce merchant volume only more unique, local footprints in high-value markets like India, Argentina,
SMB level merchants
- Single contract and integration for PayPal and Venmo appealing to - Acquired Touchtech Payments in April 2019 (SCA technology) - Top 10 merchants 31% of 2018 net revenue (33% of 2017 revenue) (i.e., the eCommerce associated with an omnichannel client is not South Korea, and Philippines)
Other - Defines eCommerce as CNP for both pure-play eCommerce merchants
smaller merchants (single contract) - Fast moving engineering team (250+ new features added TTM as of - Top 120 merchants 69% of revenue (2017 stat) included, and thus, the actual size of the total eCommerce business is by - Rapid Connect can serve as a middleware layer (although requires an
and the eCommerce/CNP portion of their omnichannel merchant clients
Stripe Sessions 2019) - Single integration to access global capabilities of Adyen definition under-stated to an extent) added hop for transaction data)
- Single integration to (UCP) access global capabilities of Global Payments
- Single integration to access global capabilities of Stripe - Potentially > 1 integrations to access WP global capabilities - Multiple gateways and platforms (e.g. Payeezy, CardPointe, Clover
Gateway, etc.)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates
23 January 2020
2. Global eCommerce (and omnichannel) acquiring platforms
Forrester’s global payments provider assessment
Forrester’s assessment of global omnichannel
payment providers suggests Adyen and Worldpay
are leading the pack.
Adyen’s strengths were identified as global
capabilities, single platform, and omnichannel
solutions (homegrown terminal software and
hardware).
Worldpay scored well on global platform and
infrastructure, along with added services (e.g.,
AuthMax cited).
We expect an increasing trend toward merchants
consolidating acquirers around a few global
omnichannel providers (displacing local acquirers).
Source: Forrester (The Forrester Wave™: Global Merchant Payment Providers, Q4 2018); Forrester excludes
Braintree and Stripe due to their historical CNP focus (vs. omnichannel); also excludes large bank acquirers that use 24 January 2020
third-party processing technology (e.g., Wells, Citi, Bank of America Merchant Services)
2. Global eCommerce (and omnichannel) acquiring platforms
Stripe additional service offerings “beyond payments”
Stripe additional service Description Pricing
Offering for subscription and/or recurring billing businesses, including ability to customize pricing (e.g., usage-based,
Billing tiered, billing frequency, one-time charges, etc.).
0.40%
For marketplaces and platforms, enabling account setup (i.e., onboarding, 1099 reporting, KYC), including Stipe Instant 0.25% or $2 per account + $0.25 per
Connect and Connect Payouts Payout to a debit card (Visa Direct) and standard ACH transfers. ACH payout; Instant Payout 1.5%
Machine-learning enabled fraud, with the ability to adapt to changing fraud patterns. Allows fraud teams to take action
$0.04 per transaction; included for
quickly once fraud patterns emerge. Chargeback Protection, insurance against chargeback disputes (i.e., pay a fixed
Radar 40bps in exchange for ability to redirect focus back on the business). No evidence submission is required, Stripe
those paying standard pricing; 0.40%
for Chargeback protection
effectively takes on the risk.
Reporting and data analytics (standard and custom SQL queries) for business operations/intelligence, accounting, $0.014 - $0.02 per charge +
Sigma finance, and product management teams. $10-$100 monthly infrastructure fee
Outsourced offering for business start-up and formation, ranging from corporation filing (Delaware), IP documentation, $500 one-time fee, along with ongoing
Atlas stock issuance for founders, tax ID (EIN), bank account opening, Stripe accounts, etc. costs for Delaware filings, tax prep, etc.
Card issuance platform for both physical and virtual cards. Use cases include employee expense cards, virtual cards for
Stripe will earn a revenue share on
couriers to pay via mobile, etc. Can also support the entire card stack for digital banks. Includes features such as
Issuing dynamic spending limits, merchant category controls, per-user bookkeeping, and other controls. Both Visa and
interchange earned on card usage, along
with potential program management fees
Mastercard cards are able to be built.
While all Stripe accounts get 24/7 phone, email, and chat support, this is a white glove, dedicated support offering with a
Premium Support named individual person as account manager (i.e., prioritized responses).
Starts at $1,000 per month
Unified experience for online and offline sales, and provides a seamless customer experience across channels. Ability to 2.7% + 0.05 for in-store payments;
Terminal build custom POS software, all linked to EMV compliant card readers (hardware). Hardware options $59 and $299
Expands the service offerings and integration (stickiness) of Stripe's platform via a marketplace of third-party apps that
Works with Stripe integrate with Stripe (e.g., accounting, shipping, tax calculation, inventory management).
By third-party app
Instant sign-up corporate expense card, no personal guarantee required. 2% cash back on top two spend categories, and No fees (annual, foreign, late), no
Corporate Card 1% cash back on everything else, includes $50k in free payment processing. Implements custom spend controls (i.e. by interest (must pay balance in full
merchant category) with real-time expensing. Integrated with Expensify and Quickbooks Online. monthly)
Similar to Square capital - quick and easy onboarding for SMB loans. Repayment is not a term structured interest One-time flat fee, no interest, paid as a
Capital payment, but is deducted from daily sales of the merchant as a fixed %. % of daily sales
Source: Company reports 24 January 2020
3. Secure Remote Commerce (SRC)
The network’s unified payments button, an “easier sell”
EMV SRC aims to create a “virtual payment terminal”, mimicking the Visa Checkout & Masterpass failed to gain meaningful traction,
offline world where all payments methods come through the same although we suspect SRC will be an “easier sell”
terminal, along with a set of authentication and security standards 80%
70%
70% Visa Checkout and
While Visa Checkout and Masterpass gained limited traction, we believe 60%
Masterpass still sit at just
~4-5% penetration of a
the SRC button will be an “easier sell” (relative to separate buttons from 50% 1000+ sample of US
V, MA, and AXP) to all parts of the traditional “four-party model” 40% eCommerce sites
30%
– Consumer - less cluttered checkout
20% 15%
– Bank card issuers - increased eCommerce volumes 10%
0%
– Merchants - increased online conversion, a single integration vs. multiple, Chase Pay Apple Pay Amex
Express
Masterpass Google Pay Visa
Checkout
Amazon Pay PayPal
and potentially reduced acceptance costs Checkout
– Merchant Acquirers - potentially increased volumes (and possibly fewer ~43% of Global eCommerce (and ~66% in the US) is done via
transactions siphoned off to PayPal, Amazon Pay, etc.) and likely higher card (most readily addressable portion for the SRC button)
conversion over time (closing gap vs. wallet oriented alternatives)
Charge & All other,
– Networks – carve out a role alongside wallets (that have longer-term Deferred 10%
disintermediation risk associated with them) debit card,
eWallet,
8%
36%
Risk to PayPal (and Amazon Pay), although we believe the most readily Bank
addressable audience for an SRC button is consumers currently manually Transfer,
11%
entering cards (43% globally, 66% in the US) vs. PayPal’s ~300mm
active users (and ~23mm accepting merchants) and network effects
Rollout schedule: Began with a few merchants in October 2019, more Debit Card,
slated for Q1 2020 following the holiday season 12%
Credit Card,
23%
Source: Worldpay, PYMNTS.com, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020
4. Checkout buttons & digital wallets
eWallets ~20% of North American eCommerce; 33% by 2020
Approximately ~20% of North American eCommerce occurs via checkout buttons, as of 2018; Worldpay expects this
to reach 33% by 2020.
Close to 3/4ths of US eCommerce sites have at least one checkout button; this has been relatively stable since 2017.
The basic value proposition is increased conversion (via reduced manual entry) and security & trust (card numbers not
passed to the merchant).
eWallets make up ~20% of North American eCommerce Close to 3/4ths of US eCommerce sites have at least one
payments, per Worldpay checkout button; this has been relatively stable since 2017
All other, 8% 80% 3 or more 2 buttons Just 1 button
Bank Transfer, Credit Card, 70%
6% 34% Less than 5% of
60% surveyed sites have a
~73% of “NASCAR” style set
Charge & 50% sites accept of payments buttons
Deferred debit 52%
at least one
card, 13% 40% buy button
30%
20%
Debit Card, 17%
19% 10%
eWallet, 20%
0%
Number of buy buttons at US eCommerce sites
Source: Worldpay, PYMNTS.com, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 66
4. Checkout buttons & digital wallets
PayPal the leader, Amazon gaining, and a new kid on the block
PayPal remains the dominant option for merchants, appearing on ~70% of a surveyed group of US eCommerce
sites (n = 1000+).
– Amazon Pay is now appearing at ~15% of these sites, an increase of ~50% since Q2 2017.
– Google Pay appears on ~4% of these sites, showing a meaningful uptick following its re-brand and consolidation.
A new checkout button has emerged (October 2019 launch) in the form of the network-supported EMV SRC
button, which takes the place of Visa Checkout, Masterpass, and Amex Express Checkout. We expect an
“easier sell” to merchants and acceptance rates that far surpass predecessor offerings.
PayPal (~70% appearance rate) has a ~4-5x lead over its nearest competitor,
which is Amazon Pay (~15% appearance rate)
80.0% Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q2 2019
70%
70.0%
60.0%
Amazon Pay has gone from ~10%
50.0% appearance to ~15% since Q2
2017
40.0%
30.0%
20.0% 15%
10.0% 4% 5%
2% 3%
0% 1%
0.0%
Chase Pay Apple Pay Amex Express Masterpass Google Pay Visa Checkout Amazon Pay PayPal
Checkout
Source: Worldpay, PYMNTS.com, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 67
4. Checkout buttons & digital wallets
Overview of the major US wallets and business models
Product PayPal Amazon Pay Google Pay Apple Pay EMV SRC
No fees to merchants
No fees charged by Google No fees to merchants (merchants
(merchants pay their standard
2.9% + $0.30 for online 2.9% + $0.30 for online (online payments are pay their standard card
Pricing card acceptance fees through
(US) (US) considered card-not-present acceptance fees through their
their acquirer or PSP); Apple
transaction, and card-present acquirer or PSP)
share in a portion of the bank
when done in-store)
issuer’s interchange, ~15bps
eCommerce October 2019 rollout, broader
70% 15% 4% 1.2%
acceptance (US) adoption in Q1 2020 post-holiday
Pass-through mechanism only,
Pass-through mechanism only,
Must be contracted with Must be contracted with no contract (integration and
no contract (integration and Pass-through mechanism only,
Contracting PayPal, offering “rack rate” Amazon, offering “rack rate” development work only);
development work only), i.e., no contract (integration and
required? pricing and negotiated deals pricing and negotiated deals Replaces (and consolidates) Visa
paying with a Google-stored development work only)
for larger merchants for larger merchants Checkout, Masterpass, and Amex
card credential
Express Checkout
~33mm last reported Hundreds of millions of card ~275-325mm users
User and/or February 2017, but credentials compiled by Google ~12b transactions in 2019, Live October 2019 at select
transaction ~300mm active users ~100mm Prime subscribers (although that does not equate growing ~100%+ YoY merchants, with further expansion
statistics & ~350mm customers, this to usage of the Google Pay (although these statistics are planned for 2020
user number is understated button) largely offline in-store)
• All payments products • We expect the merchant
• Venmo ~40mm users, consolidated and re-branded acquirers to be supportive
• Amazon customers • Online transactions limited to
monetizes same as as “Google Pay” in early (increased conversion, and also
become Amazon Pay users Safari browser, iPhone, iPad,
PayPal 2018 (prior offerings the potential to gain a small
simply by using their or Mac devic4.9k card
Additional • MercadoPago agreement included Google Wallet, portion of PayPal “button”
Amazon credentials on a issuers supporting
comments expands utility (~230mm Google Checkout, Android volumes, supportive of growth)
third-party site (i.e., no • Launched in September
LatAm users enabled to Pay, etc.) • SRC users will still need to go
separate registration 2014
transact at PayPal • PayPal is a partner and through their issuers for
process)
merchants) funding option on Google chargebacks & disputes
Pay (similar to most other wallets)
Source: Company websites, PYMNTS.com, Glenbrook Partners, EMVCo, Credit Suisse 24 January 2020 68
5. Increasing complexity in global eComm/Omnichannel
Favors tech-forward acquirers with global omnichannel scale
Increasing complexity in global eCommerce payments favors acquirers that can address all of a merchant’s
payments needs across geographies and channels, driving a trend toward consolidating providers from ~10-15+
down to 3-5 more globally capable, omnichannel providers.
Some of the largest and fastest growing areas of eCommerce have the most complicated needs (global/local
payments acceptance methods, payout capabilities, and seller identification for onboarding process, etc.).
Competition in merchant acquiring is making additional services essential (software, capital, installments, etc.).
Global reach and expanding local
Omnichannel needs Value-added services Increasing compliance burdens
payments methods (LPMs)
Trend toward consolidating acquirer Merchants need to deliver a seamless Integrated payments, business Country-specific regulations put a heavy
relationships from 10-15+ to 3-5, commerce experience across channels: management software, inventory, compliance burden on merchants and
favoring acquirers with global capabilities in-store, in-app, and online payroll, card issuance, instant transfer their acquiring partners
Accept the primary payment types in
each country, which can vary Financing solutions such as working
significantly, with many payment capital loans (and/or cash advance
Know Your Customer (KYC), PCI
programs) and ability to offer consumer
methods country-specific (domestic In-store Online installments to consumers at the POS
compliance, PSD2 and SCA
schemes, eWallets, bank transfers, etc.) requirements, Anti-money laundering
(AML), OFAC sanctions are a few
Aim toward processing as many examples that require continued
payments in-country (local acquiring investment and effort
Customer engagement (CRM tools),
capabilities), reducing interchange fees
(for those on interchange ++) and In-app marketing program management
increasing authorization rates
Source: Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 69
5. Increasing complexity in global eComm/Omnichannel
Complexity associated with 400+ LPMs globally
Platform Methods Countries Currencies
While cross-border eCommerce is gaining share within the broader
Worldpay 300+ 146 126
eCommerce market (~2x growth rates, expected to reach ~20% of
B2C eCommerce by 2022), consumer payments habits remain locally Adyen 250+ 200+ 150+
and culturally specific. PayPal
25
(we expect more via 45+ 130+
(Braintree)
Country-specific acquiring license requirements make it burdensome PPRO)
and time consuming for merchant acquirers to add new countries. Stripe
25 by end 2019,
95+ Not disclosed
50+ planned
– In markets where an acquirer does not have a directly owned license, an 33 in-store
alternative is to rent a license from an acquiring bank (i.e., “bin sponsor”). Global
140 domestic 135+
Payments
(60 inc. eComm)
– Generally speaking, this works just the same as owning a license, and
often comes down to a decision around the level of volumes expected
vs. the required investment to achieve a license. Worldpay estimates that local payment methods were 56% of 2017
global eCommerce, increasing to ~70% by 2022
Consumer payment preferences by country make it difficult for local,
sub-scale acquirers to compete in global eCommerce with 400+ local
payment methods.
– Checkout friction goes up when consumers are unable to pay with their
preferred method, increasing their importance to merchants.
– Adding local payment methods requires local integrations, which can
take months, favoring scaled players.
– For balance, beyond the first ~50-75 local payment methods, the
volumes begin to become less incremental on a global basis (although it
can still be important in specific, local markets).
Global merchants use multiple acquirers to meet these needs, but
each acquirer adds complexity to operations, favoring acquirers with
global omnichannel capabilities.
Source: Company websites, Worldpay, Forrester, PPRO, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 70
5. Increasing complexity in global eComm/Omnichannel
PPRO offering solutions to help alleviate this complexity
PPRO estimates that there are ~400 LPMs globally (e.g., eWallets, bank transfers, cash-based, deferred credit),
up from just ~300 in 2017.
PPRO works with 7 of the top 10 merchant acquirers to provide a single API integration, on one contract, to
150+ LPMs while also providing additional services (e.g., ongoing compliance, pricing negotiations, unified
reporting, refund services, etc.).
PPRO estimates that only ~1/4th of global eCommerce is done on international card networks (although we note
that localized versions of Visa and Mastercard are excluded from this figure)
Note: PPRO data separates local V/MA cards when they are not enabled for usage outside of the
Source: PPRO, Credit Suisse research countries (e.g., mainly LatAm) and the transactions are not going through the global Visa and 24 January 2020 71
Mastercard rails, and thus are not counted into the international credit card split
5. Increasing complexity in global eComm/Omnichannel
PayPal’s Braintree beginning to expand globally
We expect Braintree to expand more globally in part due to its partnership with PPRO (we note that PayPal led a
$50mm investment in PPRO in July 2018), alongside a recently expanded acceptance list (now at 25 payment
methods), and an appreciation for the importance of cross-border eCommerce inherent within PayPal.
“Braintree is available for merchants in the United States, Canada, Australia, Europe, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR
China, Malaysia, and New Zealand. In legal terms, you have to be domiciled in a supported country/region. We are
working hard to bring Braintree to other countries/regions.” – Braintree website
Braintree currently supports 25 payment methods, including credit & debit cards, digital wallets, and select local payment methods,
although we expect this number to continue to expand over the coming years
Source: PayPal, Braintree, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 72
5. Increasing complexity in global eComm/Omnichannel
Expect continued share gains for globally leading platforms
Payments platforms with an ability to provide global eComm/omnichannel payments
We expect larger merchants to processing along with an ability to invest/innovate will continue to demonstrate growth
increasingly consolidate their payments above industry levels, particularly as cross-border eCommerce increases in importance
relationships around fewer (~3-5) scaled “…It's not unusual for a large global retailer to be managing
platforms “…Point blank, it's share gains. If 30 to 60 and sometimes 100-plus contracts and partners…It
you look at our consistent is not unusual for a large international company to be
Share gainers will provide global eliminating potentially dozens of different partners and
growth…Just look in any
acceptance across hundreds of local metric…Visa, MasterCard numbers integrate one implementation across all of those regions with
payments methods (card & non-card) both in the UK.- if you look at GDP in one set of contracts and one solution…”
in-store and online the UK, if you look at SSS growth
- Brian Dammeir, Head of Product, Adyen
in the UK, those numbers tend to
(April 2019)
Provide local acquiring and consumer be 0% or 1% or whatever the
experiences, leading to higher number is on a given day…it's “…And our competitors span the gamut -- actually, globally,
authorization rates, increased conversion, another high-single-digit quarter outside the U.S., primarily Adyen, but who we're taking
and reduced costs (interchange, network growth for us (GPN). So there's no share from when we win there [are] a lot of local acquirers
fees, and fraud) doubt in my mind, it's share gains. I [we are taking share from]…around share of wallet versus
would say that's augmented by our market share…in eCommerce, people use multiple
Parallel to Visa & Mastercard vs. local focus on the small to midsized acquirers. They just do. No one's going to go down to one
schemes – hard for the domestic schemes business and leading with single acquirer, which is how we are here in the US typically.
technology. UK, in particular, is a
to keep up with required technology They'll use multiple acquirers. They've grown up with
big place for us to have our eComm multiple acquirers. Typically, they'll use anywhere from 4 to
investment/innovation (e.g., share loss by
and omni business…” 8. A lot of them…are historical in terms of using local
European domestic schemes)
acquirers to enter certain countries…”
- Jeff Sloan, CEO, Global Payments
(October 2018) - Stephanie Ferris, CFO, Worldpay (now FIS)
(November 2018)
Source: Company reports, AlphaSense, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 73
6. Fraud & chargebacks on card-based transactions
Overview of the chargeback & dispute process
This process is part of the consumer protection provided by the card network rules (i.e., part of zero-liability consumer protection policy
for unauthorized transactions dictated by both Visa and Mastercard network rules for participating issuers, acquirers, and merchants).
Chargebacks are a forced transaction reversal initiated by the cardholder’s bank when a customer disputes a transaction (i.e., this
construct is often viewed as a positive for consumers, although a big negative for merchants). Verifi estimates every $1 in disputed
transactions costs merchants $1.50.
Chargebacks are an increasing burden on merchants driven by the rise of CNP fraud and the time-consuming dispute resolution
process; both in terms of time and costs, dispute process can be highly manual, involving documentation, and take ~60-90 days.
“Friendly fraud” is when a consumer makes an eCommerce purchase and then contacts the card issuer to dispute the transaction
(e.g., reports item not delivered, item does not match description, claims to have cancelled the order, claims to not remember, etc.).
The largest source of chargebacks in the US is card-not-present Typical chargeback & dispute process, which can take ~60-90
(CNP) fraud, followed by “friendly fraud” days to complete
1 Someone makes a purchase using a Visa or Mastercard
7%, Account 4%, Merchant
takeover fraud error Cardholder initiates the chargeback by contacting their issuing bank
2
(e.g., Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citi, Chase, PNC)
13%, Other Issuing bank reaches out to the merchant’s bank asking for evidence to
48%, Card not 3 refute the claim (perhaps the merchant provides an invoice, receipt,
present fraud proof of delivery of some sort, etc.)
Issuing bank makes a decision as to whether or not they believe the
4
transaction was a valid one
Customer is informed of the decision – he/she can either accept the
28%, Friendly 5
fraud
“proof” provided by the merchant or escalate to arbitration
As a last resort (issuing bank and merchant’s bank are not able to
6
agree), Visa and/or Mastercard govern an arbitration process
Source: Javelin Strategy & Research, Chargebacks911, Verifi, Square, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 74
6. Fraud & chargebacks on card-based transactions
Card fraud migrating from in-store to online – Key drivers
Migration to EMV – the migration away from magstripe “swipe” cards to chip-and-pin effectively reduced in-store
counterfeit card fraud, causing criminals to shift their focus to online or card-not-present (CNP) fraud
– 2015 EMV Liability shift in the US – Merchants that have not adopted EMV chip terminals became liable for counterfeit fraud
done via EMV cards
Data breaches – Fraudsters have access to card data, login credentials, and personal information from numerous
data breaches
eCommerce growth – High secular growth of eCommerce relative to in-store payments amplifies CNP fraud losses
US in-store fraud losses and rates came ….while US card-not-present (CNP) fraud …while total US market fraud losses and
down after EMV migration… losses and rates increased… rates remained about the same
18.7 bps
13.6 bps 13.5 bps
12.2 bps
15.5 bps
9.3 bps
$4.6b
$3.7b $3.4b $7.1b $7.5b
$2.9b
2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016
Fraud Losses Fraud Rate Fraud Losses Fraud Rate Fraud Losses Fraud Rate
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Aite Group, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 75
6. Fraud & chargebacks on card-based transactions
Who pays for what?
In-store transactions – Card issuers are liable for card fraud if the merchant is utilizing an EMV-enabled card
reader and follows network rules in acceptance.
Online or CNP transactions - Merchant is liable for fraud (unless the merchant is utilizing a 3D Secure
authentication solution, which can shift the liability back to the issuer).
Both Visa and Mastercard have made recent acquisitions to support chargeback-related capabilities (Visa
acquisition of Verifi in June 2019, and Mastercard acquired Ethoca [March 2019]).
In addition to costs (the actual chargebacks and fees from acquirers to support the process ranging from
$10-25), merchants often have to dedicate time in responding to the dispute as well. Square does not charge
merchants for chargeback disputes, while Stripe offers an insurance product (Stripe Chargeback Protection, at a
cost of ~40bps) to cover all potential losses.
Of an estimated $31b of chargeback costs in 2017, roughly two-thirds of
that cost burden was ultimately borne by merchants
$19.4b
$11.6b
Issuer Merchant
Source: Javelin Strategy & Research, Chargebacks911, Square, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 76
7. Payout capabilities coming into focus
Freelancer (“Gig”) economy & marketplaces growth…
“Payouts” are funds disbursed by eCommerce marketplaces and on-demand platforms to sellers and freelancers, often
leveraging local payments rails (ACH or an ACH/faster payments alternative), along with network capabilities (Visa
Direct, Mastercard Send) and card issuance (attaching a card to seller account).
The growth of the “Gig” economy (~$1.4tr in US earnings) along with the proliferation of eCommerce Marketplaces
(roughly half of online sales) is increasing the importance of payout capabilities.
Platforms provide value to consumers via increased selection of suppliers (sellers & freelancers) – two-sided network.
Part of attracting suppliers is meeting their liquidity needs via instant payouts (e.g., Etsy seller use in purchasing
supplies, TaskRabbit “Tasker”, and/or Uber driver purchasing groceries later that day).
~35% of US workers are participating in the “Gig” economy Approaching 60mm freelancers (vs. US workforce of ~160mm)
64 Approaching ~60mm
Gig economy
only workers, 62 freelancers in the
6% US, up from just over ~60mm
60 50mm in 2014
Non-Gig 58
economy 56
"Side hustlers" workers, 67%
(e.g., Uber 54 53
driver as a
second job), 52
26% 50
48
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
Source: Hyperwallet/PYMNTS.com Gig Economy Index, Edelman Intelligence, PayPal, Internet Retailer, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 77
7. Payout capabilities coming into focus
…driving an increasing need for platforms to pay out fast
Approximately 70% of Gig economy workers live paycheck to
paycheck and place a high value on timeliness of payment, which Marketplaces growth outpacing broader eCommerce growth
creates both challenges and opportunities for platforms and
~2-3x growth vs.
payments providers. 40% broader eCommerce
~mid 30%s
34%
35%
On-demand platforms & marketplaces that can deliver early (pay
30%
advance) or timely (instant, same-day) payments are likely to gain
25%
share vs. those with a more offline or off-platform payout experience.
20%
~15%
Liquidity needs create an opportunity for payments providers to meet 15%
this demand and earn fees either via instant transfer or the issuance 10%
of prepaid debit cards. 5%
Gig economy workers are more likely to be “underbanked”, 0%
eCommerce industry Top 75 marketplaces Top 20 Marketplaces
representing a financial services cross-sell opportunity. on PayPal
~70% of Gig economy workers (freelancers) live paycheck to Freelancers value timeliness of payments and would consider
paycheck and place high value on timelines of payment swapping platform or working more/less because of it
Not paycheck 90% 85%
to paycheck,
Paycheck to 80%
29%
paycheck with 70% 52%
savings, 42%
60%
50%
40%
Paycheck to
paycheck, no 30%
savings, Paycheck to 20%
struggling to paycheck, no 10%
pay bills, 16% savings, not
struggling to 0%
pay bills, 13% Freelancers using platforms that do not Freelancers that would work more if they
offer pay advances & would consider could be paid faster
switching to one that does
Source: Hyperwallet/PYMNTS.com Gig Economy Index, Edelman Intelligence, PayPal, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 78
7. Payout capabilities coming into focus
Examples of efforts by various payments providers
Payments providers focused on serving on-demand platforms and marketplaces have developed payout capabilities (e.g., Stripe Connect,
Adyen MarketPay, BlueSnap by First Data, WePay by Chase, etc.).
PayPal acquired Hyperwallet for $400mm in November 2018 to bolster its payout capabilities, citing the fact that merchants and service
providers using on-demand platforms and marketplaces desire fast and flexible access to their earnings.
In addition to instant transfer to debit cards (Visa Direct enabled and with ~1% fees), PayPal launched two additional ways for small
businesses, marketplace sellers, and freelancers to be paid faster. Rather than being fee-based, these offerings are available to only a
subset of merchants in good standing.
PayPal Funds Now, launched in September 2018, gives merchants access to funds they earned via sales or services within their PayPal
account. PayPal Instant Transfer to Bank uses real-time payments rails via The Clearing House (followed the launch of Instant Transfer to
Debit Card).
PayPal acquired Hyperwallet in November 2018 for ~$400mm to enhance its global payout capabilities to better serve merchants/platforms;
Hyperwallet easily integrates its global payout technology into merchant/platform’s existing infrastructure via APIs
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 79
8. PayFacs and the rise of the “aggregator” model
Expanding the addressable market of payments acceptance
The original Payment Facilitator was PayPal; Square and Stripe also operate
under the PayFac model; the term “PayFac” is a registered trademark 226 PayFacs are registered with Mastercard in North America
owned by Worldpay
400 “There are just a few hundred full-fledged
PayFacs (notably Square) have been vital in expanding card acceptance to 337 PayFacs in the US, but there are thousands of
350
micro and SMB merchants over the past decade potentially good candidates nationwide.” - TSYS
300
– Traditional acquiring bank onboarding processes have historically been
235
more suited for larger merchants and were often lengthy and complex; 250
212
226
approval processes could range from a week to months 200
– Customer acquisition costs were also a hindrance to attracting micro & 150
SMB merchants; the PayFac model’s streamlined onboarding
100
processes, enabling “self-serve” and digital onboard processes, as it’s 65
less profitable for direct salesforces to individually prospect SMBs 50
Asia / Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East / North America
Companies becoming PayFacs generally can be grouped into three buckets: / Caribbean Africa
1. Core commerce platforms/payments companies (e.g., Square, Stripe, Payment volumes attached to PayFac sub-merchant portfolios are
PayPal, BlueSnap, PagSeguro, SumUp), although even within this expected to reach $700b by 2021E (ex-PayPal, Square, Stripe)
group, both PayFac and non-PayFac models can be employed (e.g.,
$2,000
Stripe can serve as both PayFac and ISO) $1.6b
For context, Square
alone will do
2. Integrated Software Vendors (ISVs) with vertical-specific SaaS $1,500 $1.3b
~$110b in 2019E
offerings (e.g., software to help manage a restaurant or fitness center), $1.1b
which have a payments aspect to their software and/or workflow (e.g., $0.9b
Toast, Mindbody, Lightspeed) $1,000
$0.7b
$0.6b
3. Marketplaces and related technology platforms that “take payments $0.4b
$500 $0.3b
in-house” (e.g., Etsy, Shopify, Wix, Yapstone)
$0
2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Source: Mastercard, Double Diamond Group, Infinicept, Stripe, Credit Suisse research, AZ Payments 24 January 2020 80
8. PayFacs and the rise of the “aggregator” model
Advantages exist for ISVs & platforms that become PayFacs…
The advantages of becoming a PayFac largely revolve around There are ~20k SaaS platforms in the US, ~11k are ISVs with
(1) maximizing revenue generation, (2) faster onboarding of approximately ~$1.6tr in potentially addressable payments volume;
sub-merchants, and (3) increased control & ownership of experience larger ISVs are addressable as potential PayFacs
1. Building a more meaningful revenue stream ~$1.6tr
~11k with addressable
$2,000
– Ownership of the payments experience, as a PayFac maximizes the a payments payments volume
revenue the ISV or platform earns on each transaction (i.e., ability to aspect
associated $1,500
maintain all payments net revenue) Card
Not
– Must be evaluated vs. revenue share opportunities via a traditional Present $1,000
integration payments relationship with a merchant acquirer (e.g.,
integration and revenue share with a traditional merchant acquirer, Card $500
~10k
which takes on the payments risk and responsibilities, but pays a other ISV Present
“lead gen” fee to the ISV in exchange for sourcing the volume) $0
2. Faster onboarding of sub-merchant
Advantages of becoming a PayFac for ISVs & tech platforms
– Sub-merchants avoid lengthy application processes required to (vs. a traditional integrated payments relationship)
receive merchant accounts via traditional acquiring bank onboarding • Create a recurring revenue stream (combination of
software + payments is powerful)
3. Increased control of experience Revenue generation
• Must be weighed vs. revenue share opportunities via
– Control pricing of payments to underlying sub-merchants a traditional integrated payments relationship
– Single point of contact for customer service (software & payments);
Fast onboarding of • Sub-merchants avoid lengthy application processes
consolidation in the merchant acquiring space has led to reduced sub-merchants required to receive merchant accounts
service levels for ISVs partnering with acquirers
– Ability to improve processes for your merchants (e.g., chargeback
• Consolidation in the merchant acquiring space has
handling, funding) given ownership of those processes Control of customer
led to reduced service levels for ISVs partnering with
experience
– Portability of merchant contracts (in case change of acquirer) acquirers; so, take control of that, bring in-house
Source: Infinicept, Credit Suisse estimates; Note: $1.6tr from 2015 analysis represents a gross opportunity for conversion to the Payment
Facilitator model (i.e., portions of volumes that flow through ISVs but are actually owned/managed by ISOs and bank acquirers, along with 24 January 2020 81
traditional integrated payments, that could potentially migrate to the Payment Facilitator model
8. PayFacs and the rise of the “aggregator” model
…but must be weighed against the requirements and alternatives
Our view is that over the near to medium term, becoming a full-fledged
Payment Facilitator will make sense for select scaled platforms & ISVs that What are the traditional steps, processes, and costs
operate in specific vertical markets (which limits the medium-term risk to associated with becoming a full-fledged Payment Facilitator?
traditional acquirers, but also provides meaning opportunities for enablers (but platforms are emerging to meaningfully reduce the time
of this transition)… and costs associated with the process below)
Requires hiring payments expertise (both technical aspect and business
Hiring team to manage capability
processes such as chargebacks, fraud, data privacy, PCI compliance) Requires team of full-time employees to manage business, legal, and
Meaningful payments volumes would be required to justify the upfront and engineering processes, along with building a customer service function, etc.
ongoing costs of becoming a PayFac; Illustratively, if net revenue on payments
volume was 75-100bps to the PayFac, it is not unreasonable to think that Payments systems set-up (13-27 months, ~$650k – $1.1mm)
close to $50-75mm in volume would be required to cover ~$500k–1mm in Acquiring processor (bank) sponsorship, potential gateway integrations, Level 1
ongoing costs PCI DSS certification, building initial merchant dashboard and payout systems;
could require consultants/advisors
ISVs and platforms in specific verticals and with a more domestic focus can
more easily justify PayFac start-up costs (i.e., less complexity, reduced fraud, Merchant onboarding & compliance (11-38 months, ~$1.8mm)
Develop merchant underwriting and onboarding procedures (e.g., ID verification,
and increased homogeneity of sub-merchants) vs. a global marketplace that
risk scoring systems), along with compliance with various licenses and card
brings on vast sub-merchant types and cross-border complexities network requirements, data retention & privacy, etc.
…while remaining ISVs, marketplaces, and platforms are more likely to
Ongoing management of capability (~$200k – $ millions per year)
opt for alternative solutions (which generally means reduced revenue Per account costs for onboarding & monitoring, risk monitoring, fraud
share and control, but also reduced responsibility and investment) prevention, chargeback process handling (i.e., responding with evidence
submissions, reporting [1099s], annual compliance validation, etc.)
Hybrid solutions, including the “Managed PayFac” alternative – options that
allow for many of the advantages of being a PayFac, such as speedy
Additional costs to consider longer term
onboarding, reduced support & compliance burdens, etc., although revenue • International expansion (some of the above, but for a new market)
generation can be reduced • Technical & procedural changes due to changing regulations (e.g., PSD2)
Traditional payments partnership – traditional integrated payments providers
(e.g., OpenEdge, Worldpay, CardConnect); come with lower revenue shares Platforms & consultancies such as Payrix, Finix, Infinicept, Amaryllis, etc.
(wide range of ~10-80%) but zero risk and reduced support & compliance are beginning to emerge to help reduce the time & costs associated with
responsibilities transitioning from an ISV to a PayFac.
Source: Stripe, Agile Payments, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 82
8. PayFacs and the rise of the “aggregator” model
Sample of a “Hybrid” alternative, Stripe Connect
Stripe Connect allows ISVs, marketplaces, and other platforms to “act like a
Stripe Connect partners that have opted to use this
PayFac, but not be a PayFac”
alternative (examples by sub-segment)
Stripe Connect was built specifically for platforms and marketplaces
• Lyft
Allows the Stripe client to stay outside the flow of funds but still offer the On-demand • Instacart
onboarding speed and elements of control/experience of full-fledge PayFacs marketplaces • Postmates
• Thumbtack
Stripe Connect is API-first and allows the platform partner to:
– Launch quickly with minimal upfront costs • Shopify
• Squarespace
eCommerce platforms
– Enable payments acceptance and payouts to sub-merchants • Wufoo
• WooCommerce
– Still offer fast onboarding via fully customizable onboarding flows, with Stripe
responsible for all KYC, AML, OFAC compliance, etc.
• Kickstarter
– Scale globally without new market start-up costs (including not having to open • Indiegogo
Crowdfunding
bank accounts and legal entities in various regions) • Zola
• GoFundMe
– Allows Stripe to handle all payment processing, acquiring processor
relationships (i.e., Wells Fargo in the US for Stripe), support (24x7),
• Wetravel
compliance, further global expansion over time, tax reporting, etc. • Bookeo
Travel & Events
The platform (customer of Stripe) maintains the ability to determine pricing and fees • Tripleseat
• FareHarbor
charged to merchants (i.e., adding a margin on top of Stripe fees), allowing for a
degree of monetization of the payments aspect of their business, in addition to the
advantages outlined above • OpenTable
• DocuSign
– Revenue = fees charged to sub-merchants Software platforms
• ChowNow
• Salesforce
– Cost of revenue = fees from Stripe
Source: Stripe, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 83
8. PayFacs and the rise of the “aggregator” model
Difference between ISOs and PayFacs
Although often bucketed together in industry conversations, PayFacs are distinct from ISOs. Blurring this topic further, service
providers often act as both (e.g., Stripe, Square, PayPal are all PayFacs and operate as ISOs for larger merchants).
Independent Sales Organization (ISOs), like PayFacs, help to onboard SMBs into the payments ecosystem.
Merchants that work with ISOs contract directly with the underlying acquiring bank and (historically) have gone through a more traditional
onboarding process, which generally leads to PayFacs having meaningfully faster (i.e., minutes vs. weeks) onboarding processes.
PayFacs generally have greater levels of control (i.e., funding and ownership of merchant relationships) but also assume greater risks.
Aspect of business PayFacs ISOs
• Merchants of record have their own master Merchant ID (MID)
Merchant of record? • Sub-merchants do not have their own MID (their payments are • Varies by contract with underlying acquiring bank
aggregated under the master MID)
Size of merchants/ • Smaller, generally < $1mm in V and/or MA volumes (per network • Larger merchants that are not able to be onboarded via the
sub-merchants rules, although enforcement varies) PayFac model
• Owns the sub-merchant relationship and can take sub-merchants • Varies by contract with underlying acquiring bank (making the
Portability of merchants?
to another acquiring bank sponsor merchant relationship beholden to the sponsor bank)
• Onboards sub-merchants directly
Onboarding directly? • If sub-merchants exceed volume thresholds, they may be required • Onboarding done through the acquiring sponsor bank
to contract directly with the acquiring bank
• Fast, can happen within minutes • Time consuming, traditional merchant account application
Onboarding speed?
• Creates their own application process and underwriting criteria • Beholden to underlying acquiring bank process and criteria
• Takes on risk of chargebacks, fraud, failure to perform, etc. across • Wholesale ISOs take on risk
Risk assumption? its portfolio of sub-merchants • Retails ISOs do not take on risk (the risk is absorbed by the
• Ensures PCI, KYC, AML, OFAC, etc. compliance underlying wholesale ISO and/or acquiring bank)
• Controls the flow of funds (and all associated reporting) • Does not actually touch the money (acquiring bank controls,
Fund flows & payouts?
• Handles payouts to sub-merchants and handles payouts)
Source: PaymentFacilitator.com, Stripe, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 84
8. PayFacs and the rise of the “aggregator” model
ISV or PayFac? It’s not that simple…
ISV Full-
(with revenue In between exists a range of (often negotiable) options with varying degrees of control over experience, portability, revenue, costs, and risks fledged
share) PayFac
ISV partners with integrated
Emerging “Hybrid Approach” “Managed Payment Facilitator” Full-fledged PayFac
payments provider
Typically ~20-80% of net revenue (ex- Keeps full amount of net revenue but Keeps full amount of net revenue (ex-
Revenue share can be lower in exchange
interchange, network fees, and other) pays a portion (e.g., bps + cents per interchange, network fees, processing, and
Revenue for the instant onboarding, but negotiable
but varies meaningfully by vertical and transaction) to partner and has a degree banks sponsor fees); also has ongoing
(volumes matter)
volumes of ongoing costs operating costs (staff, compliance, etc.)
Depends on vertical, but potential for
Standard onboard with a separate MID instant onboard for majority of sub-
Instant onboard with full control over
Onboarding for each merchant; acquirer handles merchants; acquirer handles KYC, AML, Instant onboarding and near-complete
experience; single touchpoint for
& Experience KYC, AML, etc.; less control over etc.; increased control over experience control over experience
sub-merchant
experience (but can still have limitations around
onboarding process/design/capture)
Payments co. handles; i.e., sub-
Ongoing Stays with payments partner (acquirer);
merchant has two touchpoints (although Software company takes on Payment Facilitator takes on
support i.e., sub-merchant has two touchpoints
GPN serves as 1st point of contact)
Software company takes on (as the
Stays with payments partner (acquirer),
Risk Stays with payments partner (acquirer) “equity” tranche), but could revert to the Payment Facilitator takes on
generally, but varies
payments partner ultimately
Portability
May have contractual portability, but not
(merchants, No Generally no (but can be negotiated) Yes
practical portability
tokens)
One-liner Can be profitable (i.e., no payments- Close to full benefits of being a PayFac Must share revenue with the partner, but Highest revenue, best onboarding &
(ISV’s related costs or responsibilities) if (although generally lacks portability), with still takes on risk & support, and lacks experience, but comes with cost base
perspective) revenue share negotiated well minimal effort/costs practical customer/token portability justifiable only by larger ISVs (~$50mm TPV)
Requires acquiring bank sponsor; Numerous
Global Payments (OpenEdge), Worldpay Clearent, First Data (CardConnect, WePay (owned by Chase), ProPay,
Selection of aspects (e.g., tokenization, vaulting, fraud
(Mercury), First Data (CardConnect, BluePay), Stripe Connect, Adyen for Pivotal Payments, Paysafe, Payment
sample detection, onboarding, chargebacks, risk
BluePay), Stripe Connect, Braintree, Platforms, Braintree Marketplace, Chase, Data Systems, Stripe Connect (custom),
partners mgmt.) can be outsourced (e.g., Finix
BlueSnap, Paysafe, Chase, and others and others Payrix, and others
Payments, Payrix, Infinicept, Amaryllis, etc.)
Less control & merchant contract portability More control & merchant contract portability
24 January 2020 85
Source: Finix Payments, Infinicept, Credit Suisse research
9. Rationale for software-enabled payments
Convergence of software + payments attractive from both starting points
Results in a highly recurring revenue stream, Software & services platforms Payments platforms adding
with reduced attrition, and the potential for adding payments software & services
higher margins (i.e., distribution leverage – Shopify Square
“acquire the merchant once, sell the
merchant many times”, including additional Lightspeed Global Payments
ancillary products and services such as MindBody Clover (Fiserv/First Data)
working capital loans, payroll processing,
Coupa Stripe
invoicing, cards, etc.)
TouchBistro Shift4
Makes sense for payments and software to
RealPage iZettle
work together given payments data are
valuable for decision making and planning SaaS & other Payments
Example Platform Comment
(customer preferences, inventory planning, revenue ~% revenue ~%
cash flow management)
Vast majority of Merchant Solutions
Shopify 49% 51%
Both payments and software companies are revenue (~60% of total) is Payments
attempting to work with the same underlying 2017A result (last payments disclosure),
merchants, which are often SMB and Intuit 85% 15% as a % of Small Business & Self-
mid-market merchants (also an attractive employed revenue
area of payments, which higher net revenue
yields vs. working with larger merchants) 2017A result, prior to being acquired by
MindBody 61% 39%
Vista Equity Partners
Payments companies can get exposure via
Payments resides in the "Resident
owned software (e.g., Global Payments,
Services" category, which was ~43% of
Square) or partnered (integrating payments RealPage 79% 22%
revenue in 1H 2019 (we assume ~1/2
into ISVs, referral relationships) payments for illustrative purposes)
Source: Company reports, Infinicept, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 86
9. Rationale for software-enabled payments
Software is one of the fastest growing swim lanes in payments
Increasing or
Sample payments providers
Channel/Type of Entity Description decreasing in Growth
employing model
importance?
In-house sales force, generally focused on larger, high-value merchants within their employer/merchant acquirer’s Global Payments, FIS (Worldpay),
Direct self-serve ~20%+
target market Repay, First Data
Mainly focus on micro and SMB merchants, where it can be less economical to deploy live sales resources; Square is
Square, Fiserv (First
Direct sales force the best example of self-serve digital onboard (for the majority of Square sellers), while Clover (and others) is also ~Mid-high singles
Data/Clover), Adyen
employing this approach
First Data (via JVs with Bank of
Bank-owned acquiring (e.g., Chase, US Bank) or referral partner relationships (e.g., First Data JV with Wells Fargo), America, Wells Fargo, Citi, and
Bank branch leveraging the business customer base of the bank, effectively cross-selling payments acceptance in addition to loans, ~Mid-singles PNC), FIS (Worldpay), Global
business checking accounts, etc. Payments (although mostly outside
the US)
Vertical-specific SaaS offerings (e.g., software to help manage a restaurant, dental practice, fitness center, etc.)
Independent Software which have a payments aspect to their software and/or workflow; Range of options spanning ISV-payments Global Payments, FIS (Worldpay),
~Mid-teens
Vendor (ISVs) partnerships with revenue share, owned-approach (payments company owns software), and PayFac approach Repay
(software company takes payments "in-house")
In the US, technically, the large acquirers (Global Payments, Worldpay, First Data, etc. all operate as ISOs). This
category employs the other categories as distribution methods. Third-party payment processing companies authorized
Majority of large payments
by one or more underlying acquiring banks to sell/service payments acceptance and merchant accounts for
Modern Independent Sales platforms in the US (Global
businesses. There are also "Super ISOs" that operate as partners of the larger ISOs. Also, when PayFacs work ~Slightly above
Organization (ISO) - Payments, First Data, Worldpay,
with larger merchants, they must operate under the ISO (wholesale) model - e.g., PayPal, Stripe, Square must do market rates
wholesale etc.) are technically ISOs in the
this when working with merchants that exceed certain volume thresholds set by Visa & Mastercard); modern
US market
platforms add layers of technology and services to their product and distribution; Category includes many of the
payments platforms that are "an authorized ISO of" an underlying acquiring bank.
Traditional "feet on street" salesforce extensions; Wholesale ISOs take on the risk of merchant failure, and thus, are
Traditional wholesale ISO ~Low-mid-singles Numerous smaller organizations
more well compensated than retail ISOs.
Independent Sales
Retail ISOs do not take on the risk of merchant failure, and thus, are less well compensated than wholesale ISOs. ~Low-mid-singles Numerous smaller organizations
Organization (ISO) - retail
Total ~7%
Source: Credit Suisse research; Note: There is overlap above (i.e., a modern ISO will use many or all of these distribution
24 January 2020 87
methods, but included for definitional purposes
9. Rationale for software-enabled payments
Front-end differentiation extends to SMB too, not just consumers
Square
42% of revenue derived from software today vs. 18% in 2016
Frictionless onboarding: merchants can sign up for Square in ~5 minutes vs. potentially weeks with “…We know we have very compelling and
banks/ISOs differentiated hardware products. We know we
– ~+90% of Square’s sellers self-onboard without any human intervention have very compelling and differentiated
hardware products. We build our hardware in-
Cross-sell enabled by integrated software and self-serve nature of products
house, and that means we have greater
– Facilities ease of use vs. integrating various reliability, speed of data and elegant design and
– Square can proactively offer additional products (Square Capital Loans) interoperability with our software products.…”
Staged sign-up flow – removes friction by enabling users to sign up with minimal information and – Amrita Ahuja, CFO, Square (November 2019)
requests information as needed for additional services
Minimal employee training required reflects intuitive software – Square POS app runs on Apple and
Andriod operating systems, which users are already know how to use
Square’s user interface has a more natural feel for digitally native Square’s entire ecosystem of “self-serve” products in one
consumers compared to legacy solutions place simplifies the operations of their sellers
Source: Statista, comScore, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 88
9. Rationale for software-enabled payments
Square as an example of additional software services for merchants
Service Description Pricing
General purpose POS software, pre-installed on Square Register. Automatically tracks sales,
Square POS Free
inventories, customer data, digital receipts, and more
Square for Retail Designed for retail industry. Includes barcode scanning and advanced inventory management From $60/month
POS for full-service restaurants. Provides front of the house (tables, orders, courses) and back
Square for Restaurants From $60/month
of the house (revenue and cost reporting) business management solutions
Integrates >20 delievery platforms with Square for Restaurants, allowing sellers to manage all
Order Manager ~1% take rate
orders from the POS. Top partners include DoorDash, Postmates, and Chowly.
Comprehensive payroll offering enabling sellers to pay wages and taxes, hire new employees, and $29 monthly subscription
Payroll
offer employee benefits. Available in all 50 US states as of 2018 + $5/month per employee
Provides sellers with an integrated appointment scheduling solution. Focused on the services
Appointments From $0/month
industry
Enables services including manage employee timecards, view employee sales analytics, and
Employee Management $5/month per employee
secure employee permissions
Provides sellers with an integrated customer loyalty program and targerted marketing campaigns
Customer Relationship
by linking customer data with transaction data. The company enables sellers to easily assess the From $15/month
Management
ROI of their marketing spend
Gift Cards Enables sellers to offer custom gift cards From $0.80/card
Enables sellers to create and send custom digital invoices to customers (recorded in transaction
Invoices 2.9% + $0.30
revenue)
Set of APIs and SDKs that enable third-party developers to integrate Square Payments into
Developer Platform N/A
their Apps. Expands Square's addressable market to businesses with industry specific needs
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 89
9. Rationale for software-enabled payments
Industry thoughts on software-led payments
“…So if you think about the thousands of ISVs that “… I think the challenge is, the most rapidly - our most valued relationship, not the most valued relationship, but the ISV that has
still have not monetized payments…. the ISV referred us the most merchant accounts in the US is one that was previously working with one of our competitors. And they called
business, which is still early, early innings…” us, actually, we didn't call them. And they said, "Hey, listen, the processor that we were working with just bought one of our
competitors. And I can't work with someone that owns software that competes in my space. So what is your view on owning
– Frank Bisignano, Chairman and CEO, First Data
software?" And we said, well, we're going to be in Switzerland. That's not the business that we're in. We're not going to own point-
(December 2018)
of-sale software. And he said, great, I'm going to integrate to your Snap platform, and I'm going to send you tens of thousands of
accounts. It's a laundromat software. But I think if I were First Data and I was 50% of the U.S. market, would I feel differently?
Potentially. And -- but I think for the rest of us, it's a really challenging proposition to preclude yourself from working with all the other
“…We've configured the pricing model for
ISVs that service any one market segment by choosing one to own. And the software development business is tricky. You have to
Lightspeed Payments such that we receive an
constantly be investing and innovating. We happen to have a lot of exposure to the restaurant world, as I alluded to at the beginning.
average of ~2.6% of the gross noncash
And 3 years ago, no one had heard of Toast. And today, Toast is the preeminent ISV in the sector. And I don't know that I would
transaction volume and a normalized rate of
want to be super long Toast 3 years from now because someone else is going to come up with a new solution. So I think our skill set
~65bps net of direct processing costs. When
is moving money around super quickly, super securely. I think in the integrated payments world, what's incumbent on us is to have
you consider that Lightspeed has only been
APIs that allow software companies to integrate to us in a very compressed time frame and get access to our global solutions in a
earning around 25bps under our previous
very seamless way, to have very strong reporting tools, to have transparent contracts, referral agreements, pricing, rev splits, all that
referral-stage program…you can start to see
kind of good stuff. But I see point-of-sale software as being a very, very different business. And I think I'd rather have an
why we're so excited…”
addressable market of all the ISVs in the market rather than just picking a horse, buying it and praying that it remains the market
– Brandon Blair Nussey, CFO, Lightspeed POS leader.…”
(May 2019)
– Brendan Tansill, President, North America, EVO Payments (November 13, 2019)
“…So in terms of thinking about where are we now in the US, I'd say we're probably in middle innings. So as you go out and you spend money at all your SMB retail restaurant, spa, health care,
B2B, et cetera, a lot of those guys have converted off the old on-prem or they've moved away from terminals into this software, and payments is enabled. So we continue to take a ton of share
there. It's growing mid-teens for us. But with respect to the U.S., over the next 5 years, we think it's middle innings. If I fast-forward, I think the U.K. and Europe, this trend is just starting. So
you're just starting to see in the U.K. and Europe them begin to -- the integrated point-of-sale situation is happening there, and payments has not yet been enabled in a massive way there. So we
think there's a big opportunity over the next 3 years to enable payments in those integrated point-of-sale solutions across U.K. and Europe.…”
– Stephanie Ferris, CFO, Worldpay (March 2019)
Source: Statista, comScore 24 January 2020 90
NextGen FinTech Ecosystems
10. Continued consolidation and scaling of platforms
Driving distribution and expense synergies
M&A is a core competency of incumbent payments players… Announced cost synergy target as a percentage of combined
cost base, average of ~7% across recent deals
– Historically, more “scale-driven” M&A in merchant acquiring vs. more
bolt-on, product capability focused for bank technology providers 12.0%
~10%
(FIS/FISV/JKHY) to leverage existing distribution channel ~10%
10.0%
…while “Next-Gen” players have digital distribution advantages 8.0% ~7%
~7%
– Square ~+90% of merchants self-onboard given seamless onboarding 6.0%
~6% ~6%
and strong brand in the US
4.0%
– Stripe and Braintree are predominately eCommerce with distribution
advantages over incumbents skewed toward in-store payments 2.0%
Distribution scale drives top line and lowers hurdles for future M&A 0.0%
GPN-HPY VNTV-WP FISV-FDC FIS-WP GPN-TSS Average
– Cross-selling (key driver of the three large 2019 deals) (2015) (2017) (2019) (2019) (2019)
– Geographic expansion given heavy reliance on issuer relationships and
regulatory barriers from country-specific license requirements (i.e., Announced revenue synergy target as a percentage of
called out by FIS – WP for WP acquiring) combined revenue, average of ~3% across recent deals
– We expect the next phase of bolt-on M&A outside of traditional 4.5%
~4%
acquiring scale to feature purchases of next-gen FinTech ecosystem 4.0%
account connectivity assets and adjacent capabilities around 3.5% ~3%
authentication, risk, and personalization/data monetization (e.g., Honey) 3.0% ~3% ~3%
Operating expense scale, driving bottom-line growth and creating 2.5%
~2%
cash flow to re-invest 2.0%
– High fixed cost structures of payments companies create large cost 1.5% ~1%
synergy opportunities: 1.0%
0.5%
– Duplicative corporate overhead
0.0%
– Technology and infrastructure costs (data center) GPN-HPY VNTV-WP FISV-FDC FIS-WP GPN-TSS Average
(2015) (2017) (2019) (2019) (2019)
Source: Company reports, Factset, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 92
10. Continued consolidation and scaling of platforms
Recent acquisitions of greater than $500mm
Purchase LTM Acquiring
Target Company Date Description Rationale
Price EV/EBITDA Company
Enhanced scale and product capabilities in merchant acquiring
Total System Merchant acquiring and issuer
Sep-19 businesses, and diversification benefits by adding consumer and $26b 20x Global Payments
Services processing
issuer processing business lines
Highly complementary combination with at least $500mm of
World's largest merchant revenue synergies from cross-selling and geographic expansion
First Data Jul-19 ~$39b 13x Fiserv
acquirer and issuer processor (Fiserv was 95% US) and $900mm of anticipated cost
synergies
FIS’s banking customer base provides a meaningful cross-sell
Merchant acquiring and issuer
Worldpay Jul-19 opportunity for Worldpay’s merchant acquiring business in $35b 23x FIS
processing
high-growth international markets
Elan Financial Sits within the Payments segment and expands
Electronic payments network
Services (Debit Oct-18 reach/capabilities in debit card processing and ATM managed ~$690mm NA Fiserv
(bills and invoices)
Processing Unit) services.
Added software and payments for SMB ambulatory physician
AdvancedMD Sep-18 Software-led ~$700mm NA Global Payments
practices
UK-based global merchant Expanded presence both internationally (Vantiv was a 100% Worldpay
Worldpay Jul-18 ~$12b 19x
acquirer North American-based business) and in eCommerce (legacy Vantiv)
Accelerated technology-led payments business and added
Total System
Cayan Holdings Jan-18 Merchant acquiring ~70k merchants and more than 100 integrated partners in the ~$1.05b 23x
Services
US; strengths in omnichannel
Strengthened the company’s position in the card-not-present
BluePay Dec-17 Integrated payments ISO ~$760mm NA First Data
integrated software vendor (ISV) channel
Source: Company filings, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 93
10. Continued consolidation and scaling of platforms
Recent acquisitions of greater than $500mm (cont.)
Purchase LTM Acquiring
Target Company Date Description Rationale
Price EV/EBITDA Company
Added event organization software and booking technology platform,
ACTIVE Network Sep-17 Software-led ~$1.2b 12x Global Payments
focused on the health and fitness market
Integrated payments
CardConnect Jul-17 Strengthened the company’s position in the card-present ISV channel ~$750mm 20x First Data
ISO
Heartland Payments Aug-16 Merchant acquiring Added software and payments business, with an SMB emphasis ~$4.3b 20x Global Payments
Added ~1.3k integrated technology and referral partners in important
Total System
TransFirst Apr-16 Merchant acquiring areas such as ISVs, healthcare, not-for-profit, referral banks, and ~$2.4b 16x
Services
eCommerce
Financial software & Allowed FIS to expand its capabilities and client roster, gaining scale and
SunGard Nov-15 ~$5.1b NA FIS
technology technologies
Mercury Payments Integrated payments leader and part of the foundation of the integrated Worldpay
Jun-14 Merchant acquiring ~$1.65b 18x
Systems business today (legacy Vantiv)
Total System
NetSpend Jul-13 Prepaid cards Expanded business capability to include prepaid debit card issuance ~$1.4b 14x
Services
Source: Company filings, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 94
11. Open Banking (APIs) and Account Connectivity
Open Banking = Open (consented) access to customer financial data
Started in Europe with PSD2 – Policy objectives to facilitate innovation and competition in retail financial services; now
governments across the world are pursuing open-banking agendas for similar reasons (see map below)
Characterized as regulations requiring banks to make consumer financial data available to licensed third parties
(FinTechs/Techs) via APIs
Bringing about the “platform-ification” of banking as distribution of financial services becomes increasingly digital and
decouples financial products from banks, allowing consumers and Neo banks to cherry pick the best services
Open Banking initiatives around the world, noting that there is no formal program in the US
(rather, open banking is being introduced by market forces)
Canada
UK & EU
X Japan
United
States South Korea
Mexico
India
Singapore
Brazil
Thailand
Australia
New Zealand
Source: Earnst & Young, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 95
11. Open Banking (APIs) and Account Connectivity
Driving force of innovation by enabling FinTech
Build the infrastructure to power Fintech apps by connecting them to banks via an API
APIs facilitate the sharing of data between (financial service) providers in a controlled, yet seamless fashion
Essentially developer platforms, allowing for faster product creation (hours from months), enabling developers to:
– Initiate payments from a bank account or transfer funds (Venmo)
– Aggregate all of a customer’s account data (Mint)
– Innovate with the data (credit assessment, automating loan applications, budgeting, etc.)
APIs enable the platform model into financial services
Fintech Company
Account connectivity providers
(Plaid, Tink, etc.)
Source: Open Banking UK, Earnst & Young, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 96
11. Open Banking (APIs) and Account Connectivity
European enablers: Tink, TrueLayer, Token, and Yapily
Monthly open banking API calls in the UK – Illustrates continued
Tink (founded in 2013), TrueLayer (founded in 2016), increasing levels of adoption
Token (founded in 2015), and Yapiliy (founded in 2017) 200 181
are European provider examples/leaders
150 139
– TrueLayer powers both Revolut and Monzo
111
– Tink powers both N26 and PayPal (in Europe, while 100 81
PayPal/Venmo work with Plaid in the US) 59 67
49
50 38
– PayPal has a minority investment in Tink 18 18 23 27
2 3 4 7 14
Tink and Plaid founders both believe that no single 0
company will do everything and that there will be an
ecosystem of specialized applications
European example N26 – Brings the platform model into financial
Regulations require banks to make customer account data services via APIs connecting to point-solutions
available electronically: Barzahlen: cash withdrawal &
1
deposit at retailer partners
– PSD2 in Europe requires banks to have open APIs
Transferwise: international
2
foreign currency transfer
US market challenging because:
3 Vaamo: Robo-investing
– US banks are required to make data available electronically Raisin: marketplace for
4
from Dodd-Frank, but no API requirements highest rate savings accounts
5 Clark: InsureTech
– More challenging in the US given >10k banks
6 Auxmoney: loans
Source: Open Banking UK, N26, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 97
11. Open Banking (APIs) and Account Connectivity
US enablers: Plaid and Yodlee
Plaid is the infrastructure (data plumbing) layer, allowing FinTechs to access customer account data via APIs to “build
any financial application from payments to lending to wealth management”
– In the US, Plaid powers over 4k apps, connecting >200mm consumer accounts to over 11k banks
– Sample FinTechs working with Plaid: Venmo, Robinhood, Cash App, Acorns, Expensify, Marcus, Betterment, and more
– Visa announced it signed an agreement to acquired Plaid for $5.3b on January 13th, 2020 (expected to close in 3-6 months)
– Plaid was previously valued at $2.65b valuation (Series C ) – Visa, Mastercard, Goldman Sachs, and Andreessen Horowitz
– Yodlee (founded in 1999) is the pioneer of account data aggregation, but it has been utilized less by FinTechs
Plaid example, with an illustrative wallet (“WonderWallet”) using Plaid to link to a selection of
banks, with the user giving access via their familiar online banking logon credentials
Plaid’s mission statement
summarizes the spirit of open
banking well:
“Transform financial services by
lowering the barriers to entry for
developers, spurring technical interest
in the sector and democratizing
access to critical services.”
Source: Plaid, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 98
11. Open Banking (APIs) and Account Connectivity
Plaid, the leading enabler of North American FinTechs
Now focused on Phase 1, solving the financial data engineering challenge: (1) providing connectivity to all banks via
one API, with high up-time access; (2) categorizing and cleansing data to enable FinTechs to offer services (e.g.,
budgeting); and (3) building out a merchant database across the US (to enable transaction categorization and budgeting
tools for consumers)
Phase 2 will be focused on value-added services through analytics, with examples including loan and mortgage
application automation (both of which require ~60 pieces of information to process)
– “Products that need to interact with your financial data” – Plaid CEO, Zach Peret
Acquired Quovo in January 2019 for $200 million: (1) bolsters ability to incorporate investment and brokerage data; and
(2) supports expansion into Europe with Quovo’s PISP license with the UK regulator (FCA)
We believe Plaid will help US FinTechs compete in Europe and be the go-to for European Challenger banks in the US
>11k financial institutions Powers >4k applications
JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, • 25% of people in the US have an Venmo & PayPal, Square (Cash app), Marcus by Goldman
account linked through Plaid
American Express, Fidelity, BBVA, PNC, Capital One, Ally, (Summer 2019) Sachs, Robinhood, Coinbase, Betterment, Affirm, Gusto,
USAA, Charles Schwab, Regions, Simple, US Bank, • The average US bank account Transferwise, Acorns, Intuit, Microsoft, Zillow, LendingClub,
has >15 connected services
SunTrust (now Truist) Quicken Loans, Blend
• >200 million accounts are
connected to Plaid
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 99
11. Open Banking (APIs) and Account Connectivity
Plaid and the proposed acquisition by Visa, mutually beneficial
Plaid accelerates Visa’s network of networks money movement strategy and represents a significant opportunity for
Visa to partner with FinTechs and >2.6k FinTech developers.
Demonstrates Visa’s deep competitive moats, solidifying Visa’s position in next-gen FinTech ecosystem by owning a top
open-banking enabler, curbing disruption concerns of the incumbent financial ecosystem.
Visa’s global brand name will give Plaid more credence with traditional financial institutions across the world, as well as
help Plaid expand internationally where there are ~15x more FinTech users vs. the US.
Visa’s global scale will accelerate Plaid’s international expansion.. .. and Plaid expands Visa’s TAM with FinTechs
Source: Company reports, Visa, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 100
12. BigTech in FinTech, highlighting Apple’s FinTech efforts
BigTech focusing on payments to better monetize consumer interactions within their ecosystems and reduce friction
BigTech Actions taken in FinTech
Amazon
Suite of both consumer & merchant credit offerings, in partnership with both JP Morgan and Synchrony
(detailed on
Amazon Pay for third-party merchants off-Amazon (i.e., PayPal competitor)
slides 204-208)
Apple Launched Apple Card with Goldman Sachs (Aug 2019), which GS believes to be “the most successful credit card launch ever”
(detailed on slides Apple Pay (launched September 2014), at 12b annual transaction run-rate at a 155% CAGR since Q1 2017, in 49 markets
103-105) Apple Cash and Apple Cash Card (launched December 2017)
Received a pan-European e-money license in Dec 2018, enabling Google to issue e-money (e.g., cards) and provide payment services (e.g.,
execute payment transactions, money transfers)
Announced plans to offer checking accounts in partnership with Citi
Hired Bill Ready to lead Google Commerce in Dec 2019 (ex. PYPL COO), an area of increased focus with visions for a universal shopping cart
Google across Google’s properties (search, shopping, YouTube, Gmail), ultimately to support/strengthen its core ad business
Focused on scaling Google Pay in EM initially and then mature markets with strong progress in India, rising to #1 market share of UPI
transactions within 2 years of launching at 60% with ~67mm MAUs, although Facebook could be a strong contender with plans to rollout
payments to its~400mm WhatsApp users in India
Increased focused on connecting merchants, advertisers and users, in addition to helping SMBs
Launched Facebook Pay in Q4 2019 in the US, a mobile wallet powered by PayPal and Stripe for users to make purchases across Facebook’s
ecosystem (Messenger, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook Marketplaces), P2P, and donations
Potential to build a substantial eCommerce business with substantial reach and a highly engaged user base: 2.4b MAUs and140mm registered
businesses on Facebook, 500mm DAUs on Instagram and 75% of US businesses expected to use IG by 2020, and WhatsApp with 1b DAUs
across 180 countries
Facebook Launched Instagram shopping in March 2019, which we believe has big potential longer-term, noting 90% of users follow a business and the
average user spends ~30 minutes per day on the app
Libra, cryptocurrency wallet effort but not essential for FB’s other FinTech efforts to be successful, in our view; we see this as a longer-term call
option and an ambitious project while noting that FB could achieve similar transaction cost/speed benefits via on-platform transactions
Received a pan-European e-money license in Dec 2016, enabling FB to issue e-money (e.g., cards) and provide payment services (e.g.,
execute payment transactions, money transfers)
24 January 2020 101
Source: Company reports, bizcommunity.com, qz.com, Credit Suisse research
12. BigTech in FinTech, highlighting Apple’s FinTech efforts
BigTech focusing on payments to better monetize consumer interactions within their ecosystems and reduce friction
Alibaba (Alipay) and Tencent (WeChat) are the pioneers of BigTech in Fintech that US BigTech is attempting to
emulate, albeit in a drastically different regulatory environment with world-class established incumbents.
Alipay and WeChat are expanding into Southeast Asia, where Grab and Go-Jek have dominant positions.
BigTech Actions taken in FinTech
Ant Financial ecosystem valued at $150b (MYBANK, asset management, insurance)
Flagship Alipay wallet with 53% share of China’s mobile payments market
Alibaba
Expanding acceptance into key international tourism locations (including US and Europe)
Owns 40% share in Paytm, $16b valuation and #3 market share of UPI payments in India
Samsung Pay
Samsung
Expected to pilot SoftPOS in Q4 2019, which powers contactless payments on Samsung phones with via an app download
WeChat FinTech ecosystem (Tenpay, WeBank, asset management, insurance)
Tencent Leading lifestyle super app with >1.15b MAUs
WeChat’s mobile payment wallet has 43% share of China’s mobile payments market
Uber Money bank-like services (for drivers), following Instant Transfer capabilities
Uber
Uber credit card (for consumers)
Source: Company reports, iResearch, statista, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 102
12. BigTech in FinTech, highlighting Apple’s FinTech efforts
Began with Apple Pay, now expanding its financial services ecosystem
From its first financial services product, Apple Pay (launched Apple’s financial services are limited to the iOS audience,
in September 2014), to the more recent Apple Card, the although iPhone share is meaningful in developed markets
company has built the beginnings of a digital financial 70%
Apple iPhone share is
services ecosystem, leveraging partnerships with both 60% meaningful in developed
50% 47% 44% markets, and skews to a
Green Dot and Goldman Sachs. higher-income demographic
40%
30% 27%
The audience for these products is generally confined to iOS
20%
device users – although iPhone share is meaningful in 9%
6% 8%
5%
10%
developed markets and skews to the higher-income
0%
demographic – i.e., Apple’s importance in payments Japan North Western PRC Rest of CEMA Latin
America Europe Asia/Pacific America
outweighs is unit share.
Apple’s iPhone install base is ~925mm globally, which compares
Payments & FinTech offerings are additive to the ecosystem favorably to PayPal active users and Amazon customers
(i.e., direct monetization is not the sole focus) and reduce 1,400
925 mm
friction and customer stickiness – acting as “the glue”. 1,200 ~30-35% Apple Pay
penetration within the ~1b ~1b
1,000 iPhone user base would
Apple products in payments and financial services suggest ~275-325mm
800 Apple Pay users
– Apple Pay (launched September 2014) 600
400 350 mm
– Apple Cash and Apple Cash Card (launched December 2017) 300 mm
200 ~300mm
– Apple Card (announced March 2019)
0
PayPal Amazon Apple Alipay WeChat
Source: Company reports, IDC, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 103
12. BigTech in FinTech, highlighting Apple’s FinTech efforts
Apple Pay, Apple Cash, and Apple Cash Card overview
Apple Pay acts as a “glove” that goes around card credentials.
Apple Pay transactions more than doubled YoY in Q4 2018;
Apple is on track to surpass 10b transactions in 2019
– We believe Apple can earn ~15bps of the purchase price on credit and
$0.005 per transaction on debit, paid by the issuers (depending on Apple Pay is on pace for ~12b
3,500
transactions in 2019 (run rate ~3.1b
issuer arrangement). > PayPal) vs. ~13b for PayPal ~2.9b
3,000
~2.5b
– The value proposition to issuers is reduced fraud (tokenization, 2,500
biometrics) and increased eCommerce volumes.
2,000 ~1.8b
– There are no separate merchant fees and no contracts with Apple 1,500
(standard card processing fees from the acquirer or PSP are paid by the ~1b
1,000 ~800 mm
merchant).
500 ~300 mm
– Any offline merchant that has a modern payments terminal (NFC
0
contactless enabled) can accept Apple Pay. Q1 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
– For online merchants, Apple provides developer tools to add the Apple Apple Cash and the Apple Pay Cash Card, a virtual prepaid debit
Pay market to websites and apps (Apple Pay will be shown to the card that allows P2P received funds to be spent in-store & online
customer only when an enabled Apple device is detected).
– 70% of US retailers “accept” Apple Pay; available in 40 markets globally Green Dot powered
virtual prepaid debit
card that sits within
Apple Cash is an iMessage-enabled P2P payments service that the Apple Wallet
works in conjunction with the Apple Pay Cash Card.
Discover is the card
network partner (i.e.,
– Funds are received into a virtual Apple Pay Cash card (powered by Apple Pay Cash card
Green Dot), which is stored in the Apple Wallet. is accepted anywhere
Discover is accepted)
– Funds can be spent via Apple Pay (using the Cash card at any merchant
that accepts both Apple Pay and Discover) or transferred to a bank.
Source: Company reports, Company website, Credit Suisse estimates, AAPL calendar year (not FY) 24 January 2020 104
12. BigTech in FinTech, highlighting Apple’s FinTech efforts
Apple Card, in conjunction with Goldman Sachs, and what’s next?
Apple Card is a physical and virtual credit card that we expect to appeal Apple Card rewards attractive when used within the Apple
to Apple enthusiasts and help to increase engagement with Apple’s ecosystem, but less attractive on non-Apple Pay purchases
other financial services (Apple Pay, Apple Cash). 3.5%
3% Apple Pay usage is incentivized with 2x
– Goldman Sachs is the card issuer, Mastercard is the network 3.0% points vs. non-Apple Pay purchases
– Apple sharing in card economics (interchange and interest income) 2.5%
2% 2%
2.0%
– Cardholders earn more when using Apple Pay, and rewards are delivered 1.5%
through Apple Cash same day (“Daily Cash”); 3% on Apple products, 2% 1.5%
1%
when using Apple Pay, and 1% on all other purchases 1.0%
– Spending tools within the Apple Wallet will be color-coded by category and 0.5%
contain various analytics (weekly and month summary data, interest 0.0%
Apple products / Apple Pay Citi Double Cash Numerous other All other
expense estimates based on various payment amounts, etc. – though we select merchants competitor cards purchases
note Apple maintains the highest data privacy standards, enabled by
owning the hardware that runs the software / applications)
Goldman Sachs Marcus offers highly competitive
What could be next for Apple in payments & FinTech? Expanding the interest rates for savings accounts and CDs
product suite into a more full-service digital bank offering (competing 2.60%
with traditional & Neo banks). 2.50%
2.50%
– Additional Goldman Sachs partnering (i.e., Marcus savings accounts, 2.40%
CDs, loans)
2.30%
– Physical Apple Cash debit card (monetize via debit interchange) 2.20% 2.15%
– Wealth Management and/or Investing/Trading functionality 2.10%
– Enable iPhone to accept contactless card payments with no additional 2.00%
hardware – Samsung is already doing this 1.90%
Savings account rate 1-year high-yield CD rate
Source: Company reports, NerdWallet, Credit Suisse research *Apple is covered by CS analyst Stephen Ju 24 January 2020 105
13. Unbanked and Underbanked opportunity for US FinTechs
Providing access to modern / affordable financial services
FinTech companies are targeting the ~60-80mm underserved US consumers
– 14mm unbanked adults in the US (no accounts) + 49mm underbanked adults in the US (have a checking or savings account, but also
utilize services from alternative providers, e.g., money orders, check cashing, international remittances, payday loans, etc.), per FDIC
– Square estimates 70-80mm underserved US consumers
Value proposition to the consumer:
– Low fees and low/no account minimums
– Digital-only bank hallmarks of smooth UI/UX & fast onboarding
– Checking account functionality (e.g., prepaid debit card, ATM access, direct deposit)
– “Hook” features (e.g., Bitcoin trading & Boost rewards via Cash App, free FX conversion via Revolut)
There are ~63mm underbanked and unbanked in the US, Prepaid card usage data by market segment suggest a heavy skew
demonstrating a high overlap with Millennials and Gen Z consumers toward underserved consumers
45% 30%
27% Numerous platforms
40% attempting to bring
35% 25% financial services to the
10% underbanked (e.g.,
30% Netspend, Green Dot,
9% 20%
25% 8% Neo/Challenger banks,
7% 15% Uber Money, Google,
20% 6%
15% and many more)
15% 29% 4%
10% 23% 22% 10%
19% 18% 7%
5% 12%
0% 5%
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
0%
Un-banked Under-banked Un-banked Under-banked Banked
Source: 2017 FDIC Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 106
14. P2P as a customer acquisition and engagement tool
Why does P2P matter if it does not make any money?
Strong network effects lower customer acquisition costs, a key advantage for FinTechs vs. traditional banks (i.e., users sign up
new users, “Download Venmo, so I can pay you back.”)
Costs of P2P are offset by cross-selling other services to large P2P user base
– Transaction costs for getting funds on and off of the platform – debit and ACH fees (loss making at first)
– Technology costs to build and maintain the platform
– Cards attached to wallets to monetize via interchange (e.g., Venmo Card & Cash Card)
– Instant transfer fees (consumer fees of ~1-1.5% for faster funds access)
P2P was the foundation for many of the largest FinTech companies
2nd largest FinTech app in the
Market leader globally ex China Market leader in China Largest FinTech app in the US US behind Venmo (owned by
Square)
- Started in 2014 via P2P
- Started in 1998 as a P2P
(tradition of giving money in red - Started in 2009 as a P2P app - Started in 2013 as a P2P app
company
envelopes)
~300mm users ~41mm users ~15mm users
~900mm users
(including Venmo) (as of Q1 2019) (as of Q4 2018)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 107
14. P2P as a customer acquisition and engagement tool
Direct and indirect benefits for the platforms providing P2P
Strategic value for the FinTech platform is two-fold:
– Direct monetization opportunity from banking services (e.g., prepaid card interchange, instant transfer fees, increased use of
checkout button in PayPal’s case), and
– Network effect benefits (e.g., driving activations, user growth, and engagement).
PayPal receives ~25% of new users via P2P, with these users making up ~2/3rds of the highest engaged
accounts on the platform.
Square notes that the Cash App’s P2P business provides efficient customer acquisition through network effects
and that the business is evaluated by management on the basis of its network, engagement, and monetization.
PayPal disclosed that P2P users checkout on PayPal (monetized PayPal P2P contributes to activations, user growth, and engagement
transactions) twice as much as non-P2P users with the platform (benefiting network effect)
Source: PayPal, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 108
14. P2P as a customer acquisition and engagement tool
How we think about Zelle vs. FinTechs
US banks are addressing P2P FinTech competition by introducing Zelle.
– Checking accounts are a key part of a bank’s relationship with customers (daily engagement).
– Consumers are using P2P apps like a checking account (e.g., paying rent with Venmo or direct depositing paychecks into Cash App).
In our view, assessing P2P volume trends is a good proxy for engagement & user base growth but has limited
importance beyond that – it’s a customer acquisition tool (the important thing is what the platform does with that
engagement in terms of cross-selling and/or a consumer network for payments).
Zelle volumes are nearly 2x Venmo’s, largely driven by different use US quarterly app download data show the rise of the use of Square’s Cash App
cases (i.e., Venmo used more for everyday expense sharing) (surpassing core PayPal in Q2 2017)
$140 Zelle 8
$132b
Venmo Venmo Cash App
$120b 7
$120 PayPal P2P ex Venmo PayPal Zelle
6
$100
5
$75b $77b
$80 $72b 4
$67b
$62b
$58b 3
$60 $55b
$47b
2
$40 $35b
1
$18b
$20
0
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19
$0
2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019
Source: Sensor Tower, Company Data 24 January 2020 109
15. Global remittance market innovation
~$700b industry TAM, typically growing ~low- to mid-singles
Global money transfer market growth has stabilized since Global remittance market TAM of ~$700b in volumes, expected to grow
down years in 2015, 2016. ~low- to mid-single digits (although differs meaningfully by corridor)
$800 14%
Cross-border remittances are still dominated by traditional 12%
$707b
$735b
bank wires, despite higher and uncertain sending costs vs. $683b 12%
$700
$633b
money remittance providers and FinTech entrants. 9% $603b $596b $589b 10%
$581b
$600 $549b
$529b 8%
An opportunity exists for incumbent players (already in
$470b 8%
progress at Western Union) to convert bank wires (65% of $500 7% 6%
global volumes) into payments over their own remittance 6% 4%
$400
network via white-label partnerships with traditional banks. 4% 4% 4% 4% 2%
$300 -1% -1%
– Bank wires are a trusted form of money remittance but often 0%
come with uncertain timing and uncertain fees.
$200 -2%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
– The correspondent banking system causes this uncertainty,
involving a variety of local and international branches in each
country before the money arrives. Global remittance market cash vs. bank split, compared to Western
Union (inverse, with only ~5% bank-based for Western Union)
FinTech entrants could play a role in expanding the TAM of
the market, adding volumes from individuals who would not
have otherwise transferred money cross-border (i.e. easy-to- Bank
5%
use mobile phone apps, travelers, international business more
Cash
willing to move money). 35%
Global WU
– A linked bank account is normally required to open an account Remittance Cross-
with a FinTech remittance company; therefore, it is not feasible Market Border
for a portion of wire senders (unbanked or underbanked). Payout Payout
Bank
65%
Cash
95%
Source: World Bank, Western Union, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 110
15. Global remittance market innovation
Large market with pocket of pricing pressure
Pricing varies widely by corridor – now 83% of corridors
Global money transfer prices still high at 7% on cost <10%, up 30% from 2009
average (which includes bank wires) despite innovation 60%
given high barriers to entry and high-cost structures of 51%
50%
incumbent players:
40% 36%
32%
– Barriers to entry – money transmitter licenses in each 30%
29%
country
20% 17%
13% 13%
– High costs to manage agent networks, receiving fees when 10% 5%
4%
money is sent and received 1%
0%
0-5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-20% >20%
– Increased regulatory requirements such an know-your-
2009 2019
customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML)
Sustained broader industry level pricing pressure (global average cost
– A local presence, including bank accounts and capital held
for sending $200 shown below), although impacted by bank channel
in that country’s foreign currency (FX markets are a last and other mix-related dynamics
resort to complete a transfer)
10.0%
Costs vary widely between specific corridors, generally 9.2% 9.2%
9.0%
inversely correlated with volumes 9.0%
8.4%
Costs are gradually coming from increased competition 8.0%
taking a digital approach such as Transferwise, Remitly, 7.2%
7.6% 7.0%
WorldRemit, and others 7.0% 7.3% 6.8%
6.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: World Bank, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 111
15. Global remittance market innovation
US dominates the world remittance landscape
2019E Global inbound remittances (% of total volume), with India and
Generally speaking, flows are most frequently moved from China the two largest inbound markets, followed by Mexico
developed countries to developing countries (typically
job-seeking activity). India
12%
Inbound remittance market: China
10%
Rest of World Mexico Egypt, Arab
– India and China are leading receive markets but are driven by a
49% 5% Rep.
more fragmented distribution of immigrants around the world. Philippines
5% Nigeria 4%
France
– No one corridor is overly material to migrant flows, with all < 25% 4%
4%
of the country’s inflows. Pakistan
Germany 3%
Bangladesh
– Flows to Mexico, the 3rd biggest country in the world by inflows, are 2%
2%
highly concentrated, with 90%+ volumes of coming from the US.
2018 Global outbound remittances (% of total volume), with the US and
Saudi Arabia the two largest outbound markets, followed by Switzerland
Outbound remittance market:
– The largest outbound remittance market is the United States, by a
margin of ~2x the number two market (Saudi Arabia). United States
16%
– The US Census Bureau estimated in 2017 that ~14% of the Saudi Arabia
Rest of World
American population was foreign born (~44mm people, 3x more 42% 8%
immigrants than the next closest country). Switzerland
6%
– 6 of the top 10 money remittance corridors originate in the United Germany
States, with US into Mexico representing the single largest 6%
Russian
remittance market in the world (~5% of the entire industry). Federation
Korea, Rep.
China 5%
3% France 4%
Luxembourg Kuwait
3% 4%
Source: World Bank, Credit Suisse research, US Census Bureau 3% 24 January 2020 112
15. Global remittance market innovation
Start-ups see elevated remittance prices as an opportunity
Metric Transferwise Remitly WorldRemit
Recent valuation $3.5b (May 2019) ~$1b (July 2019) ~$900mm (June 2019)
50 send and 150 50 send and 150
Geographic reach 59 countries
receive countries receive countries
• Started off as P2P focused on GBP to • Launched in 2011 • Launched in London in 2010, focused
EUR, now can transact in 49 • Initially had send capabilities from the on consumer cross-border payments
currencies across 1.6k routes US and Canada to 10 high-traffic • Expanded into B2B payments with business
• Now white-labeling banking “network” countries (e.g., Mexico, India, the accounts for SMBs
Approach for others to build on Philippines and Guatemala) • 90+ currencies, 150 countries
• Expanding into B2B with business • Expansion to ~600 send-to-receive
accounts (borderless accounts) corridors (as of December 2018)
• Revenue +53% at £179mm, 3rd year
in a row of posting a profit
User base ~6mm “>1mm” as of December 2018 ~4mm
• £4b monthly transfers (or £48b annualized • Visa Direct partnership to send funds • Bank transfers, cash pickups, mobile
vs. Western Union at $90b in C2C volumes internationally from US Visa cards money accounts, WorldRemit Wallet,
2019E), as of September 2019 • Perfect Delivery Promise: guarantee of and airtime top ups
• In the summer of 2018, was ~3m users exact date and time of delivery • Business accounts
transferring £2b monthly (both doubled) • Funding via bank account or card, and • 90%+ transactions are authorized
Other notes
• Multi-currency debit card w/ $250/month recipient can receive directly in a bank within minutes, and 70% of mobile-to-
free ATM withdrawal account or do cash pickup mobile transfers take less than 3
• Business accounts: international • Added delivery options (e.g., M-Pesa, minutes
invoices, payouts, APIs (Xero) home delivery)
Source: Company reports, World Bank, Crunchbase, PYMNTS.com Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 113
16. FinTech-driven credit (consumer offerings)
Expanding the addressable market of consumer credit
The current market size for the personal loan industry is The US market for unsecured personal loans stands at ~19.6mm consumers,
~$150b, and it is considered to be the fastest growing with ~$156b in outstanding loan balance (vs. ~9.8mm and $46b in 2012)
sub-segment of consumer credit, with FinTech lenders driving $180 $156b 21mm
personal loan growth since 2012 ~20mm consumers with ~$156b in outstanding unsecured
$160 personal loan (vs. ~9.8mm and $46b in 2012) 20 mm
19mm
TAM expansion via FinTech platforms that often leverage $140
traditional data points (e.g., FICO scores) in conjunction with $120 17mm
potentially thousands of other alternative data sources (e.g.,
$100
employment, education, income potential, spending habits, etc.) 15mm
$80 $72b
– Reduced costs vs. traditional banks (lack of brick-and-mortar
$60 $46b 13mm
branches, modern tech platforms reducing back-office expense)
$40
Personal lending platforms generally prefer customers who 10 mm 11mm
$20
would like to consolidate debt, although offerings span a wide
range of loan products (e.g., student loan refinancing, private $0 09mm
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
student loans, personal loans, purchase-specific financing)
Alternative lenders have received more than $11b in funding since Q3 2018,
– We believe a subset of FinTechs are considering moves further
most recently highlighted by a $500mm Series G by SoFi to expand its financial
upscale, given varied degrees of success with riskier borrowers
services offerings (which most recently is cryptocurrency trading)
(which comes with larger loan sizes).
FinTech led sub-segments of the personal loan market are: $4.0b Funding Deals 100
$3.5b
– Marketplace lending – Generally unsecured installment loans $3.5b
93 80
done through an online P2P lending platform (e.g., Lending Club, $3.0b $2.6b $2.7b
Prosper, SoFi, Avant, and Marlette) $2.5b 71 68 60
– Dedicated POS financing – Financing options that are offered $2.0b 62
57
when consumers are checking out, either online or in-store (e.g., $1.5b
$1.3b 40
Affirm, AfterPay, GreenSky, PayPal Credit, Klarna, Square $0.8b
$1.0b
Installments, Vyze, etc.). Varying degrees of maintaining risk and/or 20
selling off to investors (there are FinTech personal lending platforms $0.5b
that keep lending on balance sheet, e.g., Marcus). $0.0b 0
Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
Source: Company reports, CB Insights, Affirm, LendingClub, TransUnion consumer credit database, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 114
16. FinTech-driven credit (consumer offerings)
FinTech loans gains share within the personal loan market
FinTech platform loans made up 38% of personal loans in 2018, having first gained a market share leadership position in
2018 (relative to banks, credit unions, and traditional finance companies – when combined, banks and credit unions still
make up about half of all personal loans).
In 2013, FinTechs accounted for just 5% of such balances (and combined bank and credit union share has decreased
from 71% to 49% during the same time period).
FinTech share of the personal loan market has grown from ~5% in 2013 to ~38% in 2018
Bank Credit Union Traditional Finance Company FinTech
2018 28% 21% 13% 38%
2017 30% 22% 13% 35%
2016 32% 23% 16% 29%
2015 35% 25% 19% 21%
2014 39% 28% 22% 11%
2013 40% 31% 24% 5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Source: Company reports, TransUnion consumer credit database (TransUnion does not break out POS personal loans separately, per
The Financial Brand), Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 115
16. FinTech-driven credit (consumer offerings)
Marketplace (peer-to-peer) lenders
Examples of large marketplace (P2P ) lenders are Lending Club (LC), Prosper, SoFi, Avant, and Marlette (Best Egg)
Marketplace lenders generally offer unsecured installment loans done through an online investment platform (i.e., P2P lending platform)
Serve as an intermediary in matching borrowers (attracted by speed and convenience) and investors (prospects for higher returns),
although a “true” marketplace model is no longer viable (hybrid model has emerged, some funding is necessary)
Key question is whether risk separation of credit grades will be maintained; the test will be in a weaker economy
Additional notes: (1) Risks tend to increase significantly as growth scales up; and (2) These lenders are not just consolidating other debts
(although debt consolidation and/or credit card debt repayment are key uses cases)
Top personal lending brands by mail volume (i.e., the number of mail FinTech vintages are showing steady improvement when viewed by
offers personal lenders mail out to solicit personal loan applications) the percentage of accounts that are 60 days+ past due
$900mm
$800mm
$700mm LendingClub
$600mm Best Egg
$500mm Prosper
$400mm Discover
$300mm Sofi
$200mm Marcus
$100mm OneMain
$0mm Others
Source: Company reports, Mintel Comperemedia, TransUnion, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 116
16. FinTech-driven credit (consumer offerings)
Dedicated POS financing (purchase-specific credit offerings)
Examples of large, FinTech-dedicated POS financing platforms are Affirm, AfterPay, PayPal Credit, GreenSky, and Klarna, along with
Synchrony Financial, ECN Service Finance, and private-label issuers (Wells Fargo, Citi, etc.) and, increasingly, traditional banks (e.g.,
Chase offering “My Chase Plan”, Synchrony offering “SetPay”)
FinTechs offer financing at the POS (online & in-store), with merchants benefiting from conversion rates and higher average basket size
Accounts for only ~20% of approved loans (suggesting a different purpose than personal lending and, thus, less competitive), partially due
to many of the providers being newer products/concepts
Key questions: (1) What will happen to the industry if more credit card issuers allow borrowers to turn credit card balance into monthly
installment loans with comparable terms (already beginning with Chase, Citi)?; (2) What happens if banks more prominently offer dedicated
POS financing by themselves without relying on third-party platforms? (announcements in 2019 from both Visa [installment APIs] and
Mastercard [Vyze] to enable banks at the POS)
Affirm data suggest meaningfully higher basket Survey suggests that having clear and easy access to financing at the POS
size, conversion, and revenue per visitor meaningfully increases conversion (n=520, June 2018)
80% 76%
Higher basket size vs. non-Affirm users 70% 62% 65%
75%
60%
50%
40%
20% Increase in online conversion 30%
20%
10%
0%
Increase in revenue per site visitor Prefer fixed monthly plans with Feel that they have enough More likely to make a retail
10%
clear payment terms credit cards and prefer not to purchase if a payment plan
open more just to make a big backed by a simple and
purchase seamless point of sale
experience is offered
Source: Company reports, PYMNTS.com, Citizens Financial Group, Inc., Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 117
16. FinTech-driven credit (consumer offerings)
Selection of Personal lending FinTech platforms
Marketplace lenders Comment
SoFi • $4.3b valuation ($500mm+ financing, May 2019)
• $40b in funded loans across 700k+ members
• Offerings in student loan refi, private student loans, personal loans, home loans, SoFi Invest, and SoFi Money
• Expanding into cryptocurrency trading (partnering with Coinbase)
• Anthony Noto became CEO in early 2018 (former COO of Twitter, CFO of NFL, Goldman Sachs analyst & banker)
• Had applied for a US banking license but withdrew application in October 2017
Lending Club • 3mm+ consumer borrowers and 200k+ self-directed individual investors, along with banks, institutions, and managed
accounts serving as investors (banks are largest source of funds)
• ~13% average APR on loans up to $40k (average loan $16k)
• Publicly traded in the US (LC)
Avante • $4b+ borrowed across 600k+ consumers;
• Loan amounts of $2k to $35k, with APR range of ~10-36%, terms of 24-60 months
• Also charges an administrative fee of 4.75%; Primarily a lower FICO score lender (and lending-as-a-service)
Prosper • $15b+ borrowed across 950k+ consumers; loan amounts up to $40k, with terms of ~3-5 years
Marlette (Best Egg) • $8b+ borrowed across 600k+ loans; loan amounts of $2k to $35k, with APR range of ~6% to 30%
Upstart • Loans from $1k to $50k; 3- and 5-year terms
Upgrade • Loans from $1k to $50k; 36- to 60-month payback periods
Other personal lending FinTechs Comment
Earnest • Range of student loan refi, private student loans, and personal loans (up to $75k)
• Acquired in July 2018 by Navient Corp., for $155mm
Marcus • Loans up to $40k, with APR starting at 5.99% (range ~6-29%), terms of 36-72 months
(Goldman Sachs) • Combines with online savings accounts (Marcus-branded) and Apple Card (credit card) to form basis of a nascent
consumer business
Elevate • Online credit products for non-prime consumers; $7.4b in volume, 2.3mm customers (July 2019)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 118
16. FinTech-driven credit (consumer offerings)
Selection of dedicated financing platforms innovating at the POS
POS financing platform Valuation Comment
Affirm ~$2.9b • Checkout button credit offering; simple interest range 0% to 30% (avg.~17%); no late fees
($300mm financing, • Partially merchant funded at ~2-3%
April 2019) • Average order ~$800 paid back over ~10-11 months
• ~3k+ merchants offering (Walmart, Peloton, Wayfair)
• October 2019 launch of Anywhere (Visa virtual card) expanding network to all Visa accepting merchants vs.
~3k Affirm acceptance points (i.e., even non-Affirm merchants)
AfterPay ~$5b • Checkout button credit (installments)
(AfterPay Touch Group) (publicly traded in • Merchant funded at ~4-6% plus $0.30 (free to consumers)
Australia, APT) • Afterpay and Touchcorp merged June 2017
• 25k+ merchants (Urban Outfitters, Forever 21, GOAT)
GreenSky ~$1.3b • Emphasis on home improvement & elective healthcare
(publicly traded • Partners with banks (Regions, Fifth Third, Synovous)
in the US, GSKY) • ~$20b+ cumulative volumes (as of Q3 2019)
• ~17k+ merchants (Home Depot, Renewal by Andersen)
Klarna ~$5.5b • Range of repayment options (e.g., after delivery, over time, 30 days, 36 months, etc.), with shorter payment
(Visa strategic investor) ($460mm financing, terms (e.g., 14-30 days) interest free
August 2019) • 90k+ merchants
• Merchant funded (3-4% fee)
PayPal Credit Part of PayPal • Consumer offering in the US done via Synchrony Financial (SYF), but kept on balance sheet ex-US
(formerly Bill Me Later) (PYPL) • ~$1b in consumer receivables (largely international) as of Q2 2019
• ~2% of PayPal total payments volumes is funded via PayPal Credit
Square Installments Part of Square • Launched October 2018
(Square Capital) (SQ) • Range of $250–10,000, fixed monthly payments (3, 6, or 12 months) at a range of 0-24%
• Consumer funded, although merchant pays an installment-specific MDR on sale (e.g., 3.5% for in-store)
Vyze Part of Mastercard • A platform for lenders at the POS (allows merchants to offer credit from multiple lenders)
(Mastercard acquired) (MA) • No credit risk to Mastercard (platform only)
• Large-ticket item currently but expanding to smaller-ticket size
Source: Company reports, Digiday, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 119
17. FinTech-driven credit for merchants (micro & SMB lending)
Expanding the addressable market for merchant credit
FinTech platforms are in the process of expanding the addressable Business loan balances < 250k in the US stood at ~$222b as of
market for small business lending – similar to what Square has done for year-end 2018, but FinTech’s are expanding the reach (new TAM)
micro merchant payments; these platforms are able to offer loans that
$350
traditional banks previously avoided.
$300
– Cost prohibitive for many traditional banks to go after small loan sizes TAM expansion via
$???
(e.g., Square ~$6-7k average loan size) in terms of customer $250 FinTech innovation
acquisition, costs to review application, etc.
$200
– FinTech often already have acquired a heavily engaged customer, and
$150
the loan offering can be done via cross-sell through a dashboard with Existing TAM of SMB
which the merchant interacts on a daily basis. $100 ~$222b
loans less than $250k
– FinTechs often utilize additional and/or more real-time data that banks $50
do not have, including sales trends through their payments or $0 $0b
eCommerce platform (e.g., Square Capital, Shopify Capital, Amazon
Lending) to reduce risk. FinTech SMB loan experience vs. traditional bank –
easier application, faster approvals, and based on
– Alternative data sources used by FinTechs include accounting software more than traditional credit metrics
linkages (inventory levels, receivables and payables data, hiring trends),
social media accounts, linkage to all bank accounts (cash balance trends, Lower customer acquisition & Often not economical (CAC, risk,
outflows and inflows), website traffic, user reviews & ratings, and more. processing costs, existing merchants vs. etc.) to pursue smaller loans
– FinTech platforms are often “paid first” via a percentage of payments Online application (including pushed Can be offline (brank branch) and
pre-approvals in dashboard) and fast vs. time consuming (more requirements)
volumes, further reducing risk.
Numerous types of credit offerings (working capital loans, merchant Automated review & approval (often vs. Reviewed by a person (weeks or
times instantly or within minutes) more of application processing)
cash advance, equipment financing, invoice factoring, other business
loans, etc.); merchant cash advance offerings through payments Funding available same-day or next Funding can take multiple days
vs.
platforms are not new, but expansion into smaller merchant is (e.g., day (perhaps directly via debit card) in some cases
Square Capital, PayPal Credit, Shopify Capital).
Decisions enhanced with payments, Decision based on traditional
accounting, social, & other data vs. credit analysis
Source: Company reports, OnDeck, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 120
17. FinTech-driven credit for merchants (micro & SMB lending)
Examples of Payments & eCommerce platforms offering merchant credit
Merchant credit offerings Comment
Square Capital • Cumulative ~$6b loan volumes across ~850k loans since launch May 2014
• Repayment as a percentage card volume done through Square’s platform
• Loss rates consistently at less than 4%, despite smaller merchant size
PayPal Credit • Merchant credit business remains on balance sheet for PayPal (US consumer sold to Synchrony Financial)
• PayPal Business Loans ($5k to $500k range) & PayPal Working Capital ($1k to $125k range)
• Total receivable ~$2.6b as of Q3 2019 (+63% YoY due to PPBL growth)
• US & UK offerings (~95% of receivables)
Shopify Capital • Cumulative ~$770mm total merchant cash advances as of Q3 2019
• July 2019 expanded to non-Shopify Payment merchants in the US (expands TAM ~10%)
• Supported by data within Shopify Payments and Shopify Fulfillment Network
Amazon Lending • Invitation-only program that offers $1k-75k loans for sellers to purchase inventory for use on Amazon
• Utilizes real-time sales data (and growth), customer reviews, profitability metrics, etc.
• Terms on the loans tend to be 12 months or less (i.e., short term)
• "Amazon Lending surpassed $3 billion lent to small businesses on Amazon since the program started in 2011“ (January 2018)
Amazon.com Revolving • Credit line can only be used at Amazon.com
Corporate Credit Line & • More flexible payment terms (i.e., pay-in-full or make minimum monthly payments only)
Amazon.com Corporate • The Pay-in-Full Corporate credit line offers 55-day payment terms (no interest, no fees) and is marketed more toward larger businesses
Pay-In-Full Credit Line (e.g., libraries, schools, government organizations)
Global Payments • Up to $200k per loan
(Evolocity Financial • Repayment as a percentage of card volume
partnership) • Cash advance and SMB loans
• Additional TSYS offerings (cash advance up to $150k)
Clover Capital • Repayment as a percentage of card volume (but tends to be in the 10-20% range)
(Fiserv) • Available to any First Data directly or through any ISO, partner, etc.
Worldpay Business Finance • Partnership with Liberis Ltd (Worldpay will receive a commission)
(Liberis partnership) • UK-based offering for businesses doing £1,000+ trailing-four-month volumes
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 121
17. FinTech-driven credit for merchants (micro & SMB lending)
Additional FinTech platforms innovating in merchant credit
FinTech Platform Comment
Behalf • Allows vendors to extend no-fee terms and 30-180 financing (30-180 days) to SMBs (line of credit)
(Visa strategic investor) • Behalf customers can make business purchases (access credit line) via Visa virtual cards
BlueVine • Invoice factoring, term loans, and lines of credit
• Invoice factoring up to $5mm
• $2b+ cumulative funds delivered to 15k+ SMBs
FundBox • Revolving lines of credit for SMBs
• Connects to accounting software, business accounts, etc.
• $50k annual sales ideally (average customer is > $250k)
Kabbage • $6.5b in volume to 170k+ SMB since founding (2009)
• Working capital lines of credit up to $250k, repaid in 6-, 12-, or 18-month terms
• Pulls from multiple sources (bank accounts, sales channels, social media, accounting software, etc.)
• $50k annual sales, or $4.2k per month average past three months
• Launched SMB payments capabilities in Oct 2019 for instant A/R payments
LoanBuilder • Business loans between $5k and $500k
(Swift Financial, acquired by • $42k annual sales and a 550 FICO score required
PayPal) • The lender for LoanBuilder is WebBank (Utah based ILC)
Funding circle • Peer-to-peer lending platform (investors lend to SMBs)
• Business loans between $25k and $500k
• UK, US, Germany, and the Netherlands
On Deck Capital • $12b+ total originations across 100k+ SMBs
• Term loans (~80% of business), line of credit, and equipment finance offerings
• Publicly traded in the US (ONDK)
Payability • Gives Amazon merchants access to ~80% of sales on a next-day basis (vs. up to 14 days)
• Requires 90 days of sales history
Source: Company reports, TechCrunch, PitchBook, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 122
18. Digitally native expectations
FinTechs are on one end of the “barbell”, big banks are on the other
Digitally native consumer expectations for mobile apps are set by the Millennials & Gen Z are already ~50% of the US population (2017) –
mainstream apps (Instagram, Amazon, YouTube, Uber, etc.) where we expect their preferences to dictate winners & losers
Millennial & Gen Z consumers spend most of their time.
22%,
Millennials
High expectations for mobile apps favor banks that can keep up (1981-1996) 30%, Gen X
(investment, innovation) and/or lean on the more modern offerings from (1964-1980)
bank technology providers.
Millennials & Gen Z are already ~50% of the US population (2017). We
expect their preferences to influence winners and losers in consumer
financial services.
28%, Gen Z
20%, All
(1997 and
– Big banks – The top four banks in the US have the scale to compete with other
later)
nearly 50% of industry assets, supporting annual technology budgets of
over $40b in aggregate.
– Sub-scale regional & community banks – These banks will continue to face The “barbell” of financial services favors large banks (able to invest,
pressure from both sides of the “barbell” with legacy systems that are scale offerings) and Neo banks (nimble, modern, lower cost base)
expensive to maintain and built on programming languages that
communicate less fluidly with modern tech.
– Neo banks & Fintech platforms – Modern technology stacks (i.e., no
legacy assets) allow for faster product development centered around
feedback from their increasingly large users bases (lack of branch costs, Neo banks Sub-scale regional & Big banks
(modern tech stacks, no community banks (scale, ability to invest,
e.g., personnel, real estate). legacy tech “debt”) (pressure from both sides) $40b budget)
Source: Statista, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 123
Drivers of Cash-to-Card Conversion
19. “Push-to-card” payments unlocking new payment flows
Visa Direct & Mastercard Send strategy and ecosystem benefits
Both offense (priced to expand card-able TAM into larger, interchange-sensitive payments) & defense (race to scale before modern/fast
ACH rails gain ubiquity), resulting in increased carded velocity of those same PCE dollars and further into B2B
– Expands card-able TAMs into new payment flows (i.e., beyond PCE, into online & on-demand marketplace merchant payouts,
insurance claim payouts, etc.)
– Sends to card-based accounts, then re-spent on cards (increased consumer and business debit card usage as an indirect benefit)
Revenue generation for both card networks (network fees) and issuing banks (interchange-like revenue stream for receiving banks)
Slows modern/faster ACH rails from gaining ubiquitous adoption – Visa and Mastercard gaining scale – i.e., partners embedding these
offerings – ahead of various emerging faster payments offerings (e.g., NPP in Australia, FPS in the UK, RTR in Canada, RTP provided by
The Clearing House in the US, Zelle by Early Warning in the US)
Beyond Visa and Mastercard, push transactions available via STAR (Expedited Transfer), NYCE (Money Transfer), & PULSE (A2A Transfer)
“Push-to-card” payments (e.g., Visa Direct, Mastercard Send) expand card payments into “Push-to-card” disbursements provide advantages
new market opportunities, beyond C2B and into B2B, C2B, and P2P to business and governments (senders)
More likely to work with a business
82%
that offers fast disbursements
Consider a debit card number to be
72% more convenient than a bank
account + routing number
Organizations that have cited
88% efficiency as the primary reason to
switch to electronic payments
Source: Company reports, Visa, Credit Suisse research; Note: Digital Disbursements Consumer Preferences Survey was commissioned by Visa
and conducted by SevenDesign via Ask Your Target Market, among 2,000 active U.S. debit card users (2017); [ 3 ] "2015 Payments Cost 24 January 2020 125
Benchmarking Survey," The Association for Financial Professionals (2015)
19. “Push-to-card” payments unlocking new payment flows
Visa Direct & Mastercard Send – Push payments using card rails
Leverage existing card rails (debit card linkage to bank accounts) for all general purpose and prepaid cards, essentially
reversing the payment flow within the payments network (i.e., born out of the returns/refunds process)
Domestic and cross-border capable
Visa Direct can send funds to Mastercard cards (and vice-versa)
Can be “instant” or standard t+2 (instant requires “fast funds” posting requirement on the receiving bank – funds
available within 30 minutes)
“Push-to-card” payments still require a facilitator function (e.g., merchant acquirer, payments service provider, processor, or
other facilitator) to connect to the network
Source: Visa, Glenbrook Partners, Credit Suisse research; Note 2: Use cases are for illustrative purposes only; Program providers are responsible
for their programs and compliance with any applicable laws and regulations 24 January 2020 126
19. “Push-to-card” payments unlocking new payment flows
Visa Direct & Mastercard Send growth and pricing
Network pricing (yields) vary by use case but are (on average) below traditional pull debit at the POS
– Use case based network fees, priced to value, but on average tend to be lower than traditional debit (in part due to larger average dollar
amounts per transaction, i.e., cents per transactions spread across a $1,200 insurance claim payout vs. $50 shirt)
– Generally more fraud prevention and risk associated with a traditional C2B card transaction vs. a B2C/G2C disbursement
– Visa generally refers to transaction growth vs. volumes (although recent disclosures allowed for backing into a volume measure)
Interchange-like fees (not officially considered interchange and thus not a part of Visa’s publicly available pricing schedule paid by
sender to the receiver’s bank); potential for this portion of the economics to be reduced or removed over the longer term (ACH push
payments do not provide revenue for receiving banks)
Visa Direct continues to grow ~100%, and these volumes now make
Visa Direct and Mastercard Send provide an “interchange” to the
up ~2% of Visa’s total payments volume; of the ~$100b in 2018,
receiving bank, likely put in place to incentivize uptake
~$42b was US (vs. ~$14b in 2017)
$400b “Interchange” paid to
$354b ~$0.10 per domestic transaction for Visa Direct
Visa Direct volumes receiving bank
$350b
continue to growth at
Largely priced on a “cents per transaction” basis,
$300b ~100%, despite
and thus, appear mainly in “Data Processing
achieving scale
$250b Fees”; Use case based and still early days in the
$202b price discovery process (e.g., different prices for
$200b Network fees
B2C vs. P2P, perhaps negotiable for large
$150b payers such as insurance companies with larger
$101b average send amounts); Generally amounts to a
$100b net yield for Visa that is below traditional debit
$56b
$50b Visa OCT is the transaction, while Visa Direct is
Other the service; Mastercard Money Send is the
$0b
transaction, while Mastercard Send is the service
2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Source: Company reports, Glenbrook Partners, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 127
19. “Push-to-card” payments unlocking new payment flows
Visa Direct & Mastercard Send vs. ACH-based alternatives
Aspect Visa Direct & Mastercard Send ACH-based (including faster payments, ACH-like alternatives)
Local (but evolving): ACH-based systems are (today) by definition local, and
often country-specific; Examples include NPP in Australia, FPS in the UK, RTR
in Canada, RTP provided by The Clearing House in the US, Zelle by Early
Cross-border: Global by definition, with cross-border
Warning in the US, and the pending FedNow system (potential launch in
Domestic vs. Global capabilities and access to ~3.5b cards and ~25k banks
2023/2024) in the US; That said, it is possible that over time modern ACH
connected to Visa and Mastercard
systems could become linked/interoperable for use in cross-border payments
(i.e., many are using ISO 20022 standards, making connecting various systems
more feasible over time)
Traditional bank accounts only: Generally does not have access to prepaid cards
Traditional bank accounts & prepaid cards: Broader access to
and credit cards, although there are country-specific examples that can access
Account-access the underbanked via prepaid cards; Can also access credit
16 digit debit and prepaid cards via ACH rails (e.g., FedGlobal via FedACH to
cards
SPEI).
Higher, but priced to value: Use case specific pricing and still in
Lower: Appropriate for many uses cases, but without the full scope of services
Costs to sender the early stages of an evolving pricing strategy (emphasis on
provided by card network-enabled push payments
transactions at the moment)
Banks earn money: Banks are compensated for receiving Banks have costs: Banks (sending and receiving) have costs associated with
Costs to receiver
funds, earning "reverse interchange-like" revenue; Receiving accepting ACH-based payments, typically paying the operator (e.g., NACHA,
(bank)
banks earn $0.10 each time they accept Visa Direct EPN) and a third-party service provider (e.g., Popmoney by Fiserv)
Chargebacks & dispute process: Card network rails come with
No chargebacks & disputes: ACH-based payments cannot be reversed due to
processes around chargebacks & disputes; Originating bank
Risks issues with a product or service delivery (merchant failure); The originating bank
bears the risk when accounts are taken over; These processes
does assume risk when accounts are taken over (per Reg E)
generally add costs to the ecosystem
Modern systems are 24/7, traditional are not: Modern faster payments systems
24/7 real-time (card rails are always on); Visa requires
Speed & availability (e.g., RTP in the US) are 24/7; Legacy ACH systems are not, and often
fast-funds enabled issuers to make funds within 30 minutes
operate under bank branch-like hours (batch processing)
Long-standing real-time capabilities, consolidated into two
Other Numerous, more recent developed options
known brands (Visa, Mastercard)
Source: Visa, Glenbrook Partners, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 128
20. Contactless payments
Driving penetration of small-ticket habitual purchases
Contactless payments is a driver of transaction growth in mature markets with high card penetration, with key benefits such as:
– Replacing cash, particularly in small-ticket items that are disproportionately still done in cash today (we note that this turns out to
be yield accretive for the card networks given fixed data processing fees are spread over lower ticket sizes)
– Increasing spend per active card by ~14-16%
– Decreasing checkout time and improving customer experience
Enablers of Contactless – Critical mass of acceptance and cards before taking off (chicken and egg)
– Merchants need to have EMV-enabled terminals
– Banks need to issue contactless-enabled cards (cost issuers at ~$5 per card vs. ~$2-3 per card without contactless capabilities)
– Drive consumer adoption by habituating the use of contactless payments through daily use cases (e.g., transit)
Contactless logo on the front of the card signifies a Illustrative example: Visa’s net revenue yield potentially could be
contactless-enabled card, which should begin appearing more more than ~2x higher on a small-ticket transactions (ex
often in the hands of US cardholders in 2020 & 2021 enhanced rebates & incentives)
0.80%
Service Fees
0.70%
Data Processing Fixed Fee 0.61%
0.60%
0.50%
0.40%
0.50%
0.30% 0.26%
0.20% 0.15%
0.10%
0.11% 0.11%
0.00%
$50 transaction $15 transaction
Source: Visa, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 129
20. Contactless payments
US rolling out as we speak, experience elsewhere
Consumer adoption in international markets bodes well for adoption in new geographies (particularly the US).
– Visa has 50 countries where at least 33% of face-to-face transactions are contactless.
– Acceptance in the US is improving. Currently 60% of Visa and Mastercard US payments volume is occurring at
contactless-enabled merchants.
Visa noted that as of end Q3 2019, eight of the top ten issuers are participating in contactless and that more than
100mm Visa contactless cards had already been issued (vs. expectation of 300mm by end 2020).
– We expect an outsized benefit for V vs. MA in the US given mix (45% of volume vs. 35% for MA, skew to large issuers).
Mastercard noted (also at end Q3 2019) that issuers making up ~70% of US Mastercard cards had committed to
re-issuing contactless cards over a 12- to 24-month period, with many already doing this (e.g., Citi, Capital One,
HSBC, Key Bank, etc.).
Contactless % share of face-to-face transactions; rapid consumer adoption “… So where we've seen contactless come in, it has
indicates strong customer experience taken off like a rocket ship, and we've given you some of
the statistics. It takes 2 or 3 years to build. And then
Australia Singapore Canada UK within a couple of years, 90% of transactions are
contactless. And what it does is 2 things. One, it allows
you to go deeper and deeper into smaller and smaller
2014 52% 22% 14% 4%
transactions and so digitizes more cash. And secondly, it
becomes so easy that people displace other modes they
were using to pay like tapping phones…”
2017 84% 52% 42% 44%
– Vasant Prabhu, CFO, Visa (December 2019)
Source: Company reports, Visa Investor Day, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 130
20. Contactless payments
US contactless rollout phasing and impacts
Contactless payment methods are largely a new The US market for contactless cards is expected to ramp
quickly, with incremental transactions reaching ~4.6b by 2022E
development (~5% penetration as of 2018) and should
increase rapidly as issuers continue converting to 60% Contactless Penetration 56%
52%
contactless capabilities. (% of contactless cards in force)
50%
41%
Previously un-carded transactions should contribute 40%
incremental volume as contactless issuance ramps, further 30%
incentivizing issuers and merchant acquirers to put more 19%
20%
resources into selling contactless terminals into merchants.
10% 5%
Contactless-enabled cards have shown transaction per card increases 0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
of 35-45% in card markets similar to the US (years 1-5 post rollout)
4.6 b
Incremental contactless
50% New Zealand
transaction count 3.5 b
Ireland 45%
Switzerland
40%
United Kingdom 1.7 b
Canada 35%
0.7 b
30% Australia 0.2 b
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
20% $78.4b
Incremental contactless
payment volume $62.3b
10% 9%
$31.3b
0% $13.2b
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 $2.9b
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Credit Suisse estimates, A.T. Kearney via Consulting.us 24 January 2020 131
20. Contactless payments
Top 15 economies’ experience with contactless rollouts
Contactless cards began rollout in the early 2000s in select markets, with more recent rollouts in countries with
payments markets (high card penetration) more similar to the US, experiencing meaningful adoption within 3-4 years
Source: A.T. Kearney, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 132
21. Loyalty and rewards becoming easier to spend
FinTechs entering the rewards and improving liquidity
Opportunity for payments ecosystem to take friction out of using rewards points (provide an easy-to-spend, at the
POS, instant access to rewards points vs. formally spending via a rewards program website), with various ways to
provide this value (e.g., FIS, Square, PayPal programs)
PayPal estimates 1/3rd, or roughly $10b worth, of reward points in the US go unused each year at the top 6 banks
alone, while FIS suggests that there are more than 200b unused rewards points that are up for grabs
Merchants that work with FinTechs to accept loyalty rewards benefit from providing an option that consumers find
attractive (per survey results below, potentially leading to increased foot traffic), an additional payment method
choice online (greater choice generally leads to increased conversion), and potentially reduced costs (in the case of
FIS Premium Payback, merchants are not charged interchange on the rewards-funded portion of the transaction)
PayPal estimates that ~33% of rewards points go unused in FIS Premium Payback-related consumer survey results point
the US each year to the value proposition for merchants
$10b, or Consider Premium Payback a better
56%
~33%, of value than other redemption options
rewards points
go un-used
each year Would redeem their points again for
88% purchase rebates
$20bn in
rewards Rated their experience (with FIS
points used 88% Premium Payback) as a four or a five
annually
Source: PayPal, FIS, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 133
21. Loyalty and rewards becoming easier to spend
FIS Loyalty-as-a-Currency set to expand with WP merchants
Premium Payback program enables ~23mm consumers to redeem rewards on the POS, originally launched in 2016
Gas stations were the initial vertical (~24k US gas stations); the success of program had led to new vertical expansion
– No action required by consumer (will be prompted at the POS with the option to use rewards points)
– Merchant benefits from reduced interchange for the rewards points-funded portion of the transaction
– Issuer is able to remove liability from balance sheet and convert the points at a slight discount
FIS-WP benefits from creating a value-added service for both issuer and merchant partners, allowing for a degree of increased
stickiness, price compression protection, and potential share gains via new client additions
FIS expects the first joint (FIS-WP) loyalty-as-a-currency customer will go live in 1H 2020, with the integration work done for
this first client paving the way for a more streamlined onboarding process for future new clients
FIS-WP will extend this offering into eCommerce sites of Worldpay merchants (large and multinational retailers)
Early consumer adoption stats suggest the
FIS Premium Payback is seamlessly enabled into the existing POS payment process
offer resonates at the POS
Portion of consumers that
accept the offer when prompted
37% at POS (offer to redeem points
as part of their current
purchase)
Increase (YoY) in take rate
10% experienced during the early
innings of this new service
Source: FIS, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 134
21. Loyalty and rewards becoming easier to spend
PayPal and Venmo leveraging their 2-sided networks
PayPal provides instant rewards programs in two forms: PayPal
PayPal leverages its 2-sided network to drive value for the entire
Pay with Rewards and Venmo Rewards (cash back) ecosystem (consumers, merchant, banks, and PayPal) via PayPal
PayPal Pay with Rewards Pay with Rewards and the Venmo Rewards cash back program
– Enables consumers to consolidate points across accounts to use
at PayPal’s >24mm merchants globally
– PayPal benefits from reduced funding costs (rewards a low-cost
funding method, supportive of transaction margins)
– Deepens bank relationships, with large US Issuers partnering
(Chase, Amex, Citi, Discover, etc.) with PayPal
– Banks improve their consumer value proposition and reduce
reward points liability on balance sheet
– Merchant benefit via increased conversion
Venmo Rewards (cash back program)
– Venmo is offering immediate Cash back on purchase at select
merchants (when Venmo Card is used); funds entire Venmo
account balance
– We expect rewards to be used as an engagement lever for
Pay-with-Venmo (PWV)
– Unique (but similar to Boost from Square’s Cash Card) in that
attractive awards can be earned on a debit card (vs. credit card),
given debit rewards have been meaningfully reduced since debit
interchange became regulated for large banks after 2010
Source: PayPal, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 135
21. Loyalty and rewards becoming easier to spend
Square’s Cash App Boost
Square’s Cash Card (card attached to Cash App account for
Square’s Cash App Boost has the potential to turn from a cost
consumers) provides consumers with instant cash-back rewards center (contra revenue item, with Square funding the rewards) to a
without an expensive annual credit card fee revenue generating, hyper-targeted advertising platform
Cash Card Direct Deposit Boost Rewards Stock Tradin
Unique (but similar to Venmo Rewards) in that attractive rewards
can be earned on a debit card (vs. credit card, given debit rewards
have been meaningfully reduced following the Durbin amendment)
Delivers rewards immediately (i.e., instant gratification to users,
funds delivered to Cash app balance); examples are 15% of Shake
Shack, $1 off any coffee, 10% off Nike, 10% off DoorDash, etc.
Drives incremental revenue for merchants (Square and non-Square
sellers) via foot traffic, frequency of visits, higher ticket size, etc.
Cash Boost (rewards) potential to turn from a cost center (currently
a contra revenue item, serving as a marketing cost as Square
funds the rewards) to a revenue generator (potential for merchant
funding of rewards, paying for positioning within Cash App, etc.)
– The targeting value within the Cash App is something we believe
investors underappreciate (Location-based Boosts), given the ability
to target by customer (known user), merchant (company-specific
offers), or location (geo-location data) and on a real-time basis –
attractive to digital advertisers with large budgets
– The first step toward improving monetization of Boost has begun,
with Square beginning to reduce some of the contra revenue costs
by asking partners to contribute to funding of the offers – next step
could be to ask for full merchant funding, followed by competition
(bidding) for positioning within Cash App
Source: Square, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 136
21. Loyalty and rewards becoming easier to spend
PayPal’s Honey acquisition – Doing things other payments methods don’t do
In Nov. 2019, PayPal announced the $4b acquisition of Honey, Honey is a highly-strategic acquisition enabling PayPal to become
an online shopping and rewards platform that works across more involved with consumers at the beginning of the shopping
than 30k online merchants and ~17mm monthly active users, experience (i.e., drives traffic to merchants, moving PayPal to top
which PayPal can scale across its ~300mm users. of funnel, a notable differentiator)
~40% of all eCommerce begins through a “trigger event”, such For consumers For merchants
as a personalized offer.
Expands PayPal’s value proposition
It supports PayPal’s pricing (i.e., transaction take rates) and will Helps save money by streamlining by enabling it to target specific
help to differentiate PayPal vs. alternative checkout methods discounts and rewards, in addition to consumer demographics with
(timely given the network SRC button launched in Q4 2019); price-tracking tools and alerts customized (personalized) offers,
simply stated, doing things other payments methods don’t do. increasing conversion and sales
Honey will be embedded in the Venmo app and will be a
significant driver of Pay with Venmo adoption, in our view.
Honey enhances Venmo’s push into online shopping through
rewards, in a similar vein to earlier brand initiatives.
We note the vast majority of rewards are merchant funded, an
emerging tool for marketers to directly engage with consumers.
“…There are a lot of these direct-to-consumer brands that have launched, and one
of the big ones that people know about is Allbirds…They came out and basically
spent their entire marketing budget on Facebook ads and Instagram ads, and they're
paying basically for eyeballs or clicks. What we just had the conversation with them
about is it would be actually a lot more effective for them if they could just give 10%
discount to a user who bought with Venmo as long as they shared their purchase.…”
– Amitabh Jhawar, GM Venmo, PayPal (November 2019)
Source: PayPal, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 137
22. Long runway for card penetration in both EM & DM markets
Emerging markets will be a key source of growth payments companies
Emerging markets will be a key source of growth for global payments companies, with card payments growth in developed markets
now below 10% (e.g., ~6-8% in the US) given now higher levels of PCE penetration.
The Asia-Pacific region is the least penetrated, with a TAM of $6tr and meaningful opportunities for continued cash & check
conversion in India, Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
Europe represents the next largest opportunity, with a TAM of $3.5tr in cash & check transactions yet to be converted, with still sizable
opportunities in Germany, Italy, Spain, and France (for the card networks specifically).
Global card penetration of consumer spend remains low in numerous
Globally, Mastercard estimates there is still ~$7tr of cash & check within
countries, with the US and the UK representing two of the more mature
the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and ~$68tr in total globally
payments markets (both north of 50% penetrated)
80% 2018 Card Penetration 2018-2023E CAGR 25% $61tr $237tr
70% 20% 13
20%
60% 48 68
$124tr
15%
50% 13% 15% 38 87%
40% 10% 10% Un-carded
8% 9% opportunity
30% 8% 10%
6% 7% 84 139
5% 5% 6%
20% 4% 5% $52tr
2
10% 17
7
0% 0% 28 30
Italy
Japan
Germany
USA
Philippines
UK
Spain India Brazil
Colombia Argentina
France Mexico
Indonesia
PCE B2B / G2B P2P / B2C / G2C Total
Carded ACH Cash & Check
Source: Visa, Euromonitor, Mastercard, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 138
22. Long runway for card penetration in both EM & DM markets
Europe a ~$3-4tr cash opportunity, drivers, country highlights
Government influence has been a driver of the European payments ~$3-4tr cash & check opportunity remains in Europe
landscape, highlighted by interchange caps and PSD/PSD2
– Interchange Caps in December 2015 reduced acceptance cost
and stimulates electronic payments penetration with SMBs
$3.5tr
– PSD/PSD2 aimed at fostering innovation and competition
Debit-centric market – cultural preferences to not use credit $8.6tr
– Low-interchange also limits card reward programs, with $5.1tr $5.1tr
interchange generally viewed as funding those costs
Network mandate for all POS terminals to be contactless-enabled
Penetrated Cash & check opportunity Total PCE
Germany, # 4 GDP country in the world
– Cash >55% of in-person payments, debit card 25% The key growth countries in Europe are still relatively cash heavy
– Girocard, national card scheme, >70% card share $2.0tr 10%
81% Cash
Thousands
France, #6 GDP country in the world 8%
$1.5tr
– Cash >45% of in-person payments, debit card 30% 45% Cash 74% Cash
6%
– Cartes Bancaires, national card scheme, >90% card share $1.0tr
68% Cash 4%
Italy, #8 GDP country in the world
$0.5tr
2%
– Cash >60% of in-person payments, debit cards >20%
$0.0tr 0%
– Bancomat, national card scheme, >40% card share Germany France Italy Spain
Cash & check opportunity Card spend 2018-2023E CAGR
Source: Visa, Euromonitor, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 139
22. Long runway for card penetration in both EM & DM markets
Asia-Pacific still ~50% cash & check, a favorable backdrop
Government initiatives to reduce cash (India demonization, Japan Cashless initiative)
High smart phone penetration (e.g., China at 76% in 2017, South Korea at 82%, and Malaysia at 73%)
Prevalence of super apps with large user bases (meets ubiquity requirements for consumer adoption of new payment behaviors)
Near greenfield opportunity to fill in financial services gaps from large underbanked populations (insert data point)
QR codes lowers barriers for electronics payments – cheaper, lower infrastructure requirements
>$6tr cash & check opportunity to be brought onto electronic …with the opportunity in Asia-Pacific extending beyond emerging markets
means of payments within emerging markets… (e.g., Japan ~65% cash & check)
$6.1tr
$11.0tr
$4.9tr $4.9tr
Penetrated Cash & check opportunity Total PCE
Source: GSMA, Visa, Euromonitor, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 140
22. Long runway for card penetration in both EM & DM markets
Asia-Pacific opportunities in India, Super-Apps in the region
India (#7 GDP globally, 2nd by population) along with Japan (#4 by GDP) represent the two largest addressable opportunities in Asia ex-China
India – Government highly supportive of electronic payments and, in 2016, introduced demonetization efforts to reduce cash
– Launched Unified Payment Interface (UPI) in 2016, utilized by Paytm, Google Pay, etc.; V/MA have ~70% share, along with Rupay (domestic network)
– Paytm: largest payments wallet with >200mm users, ~60% owned by Alibaba (Alipay), payments bank license in 2018 to offer debit cards and
investment products (Ant Financial started with similar products)
Indonesia & Philippines – super-app-dominated countries (unlocks large underbanked populations for payments ecosystem)
– Go-Jek: super-app >25mm MAUs, leader in Indonesia, Visa invested in 2019 to promote 4-party payments model (Visa-credentials)
– Grab: >130mm registered users, leader across Southeast Asia, first partnered with Mastercard in 2018 to issue pre-paid debit cards
Both India and Japan represent the largest addressable opportunities, sitting at ~70-90% cash dominant
$2.5tr 25%
69% Cash
$2.0tr 20%
$1.5tr 93% Cash 15%
$1.0tr 10%
$0.5tr 91% Cash 5%
78% Cash
$0.0tr 0%
India Japan Indonesia Phillippines
Cash & check opportunity Card spend 2018-2023E CAGR
Source: Visa, Euromonitor, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 141
22. Long runway for card penetration in both EM & DM markets
Japan Cashless initiatives aim to 2x penetration by 2025
Japanese government’s Cashless Initiative is expected to take electronic payments from ~21-22% today to ~40% by
2024, with improvements ahead of 2020 Olympics in Tokyo
Cash usage in Japan remains high, in part due to cultural reasons (including low crime rates/safety in carrying cash)
– Incentives are provided to merchants for both acceptance and hardware costs, along with ~5% rewards (rebates) for consumers using
cashless payments means at registered businesses (which are mostly SMB, given larger retailer are more likely to accept already)
– As of November 2019, ~770kn SMB had installed cashless payment terminals with the support of government subsidies (~39% of
the 2mm eligible businesses)
– In 2012, only ~33% of Japanese households were using cashless payments methods – that number has risen to ~50% today
Program could be extended (encouraged by The International Monetary Fund)
Japan’s cashless payment ratio is among the lowest of Square launched in Japan in 2013 and, more recently, began
development nations, sitting at ~20% (with government accepting JCB (local scheme); Management has highlighted the
initiatives in place with an aim toward ~40% by 2024) tailwinds related to government cashless initiatives
100% 98%
78%
80%
57%
60%
47%
43%
40%
21%
16%
20%
0%
South Russia Singapore U.S. France Japan Germany
Korea
Source: Company reports, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Japan Consumer Credit Association, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 142
22. Long runway for card penetration in both EM & DM markets
Latin American opportunities greatest in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico
Brazil (#9 GDP country in the world), Mexico (#15 GDP country), and Argentina (#28 GDP), along with acquiring markets opening, have
made Latin America an attractive area of investment and growth (we focus below on First Data’s entry and success)
Brazil – until 2010, banks in Brazil were restricted to using only two incumbent acquirers:
– (1) Cielo (previously VisaNet until 2010) had exclusivity on Visa acquiring; and (2) Rede, which had exclusivity on acquiring Mastercard transactions
– Following the opening up of the Brazilian acquiring market, First Data seized the opportunity by building a greenfield merchant acquiring business in
Brazil from scratch in 2014 that has grown rapidly, gaining share from legacy acquirers with antiquated technology platforms
Argentina – similarly, regulators are ending card scheme exclusivity, but in a phased approach
– Visa and 14 Argentinian banks owned the Prisma network, which will retain exclusivity to processing their existing Visa portfolios through 2022
– First Data had 44% POS market share but only 15% acquiring share (2017) due to its inability to acquire Visa Cards (~80% of the market)
– Next catalyst will occur in 2022 when the Prisma exclusivity agreement ends opens in Q4 2018
Both Brazil and Mexico are healthy growing electronic First Data highlights the various acquiring markets that have opened up Latin
payments markets, currently at ~45-80% cash dominant America (Brazil in 2010, Argentina 2H 2018, Uruguay 2019, Chile)
$2.0tr 16%
Thousands
14%
$1.5tr 12%
56% Cash 10%
$1.0tr 83% Cash 8%
6%
$0.5tr 82% Cash 4%
81% Cash
2%
$0.0tr 0%
Brazil Mexico Colombia Argentina
Cash & check opportunity Card spend 2018-2023E CAGR
Source: First Data, Euromonitor, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 143
22. Long runway for card penetration in both EM & DM markets
Summary data for the US, Europe, AsiaPac, and LatAm
US Europe
100% 12% 100% 10%
10% 9%
10% 7% 42%
80% 45% 45% 44% 80% 45% 41% 39% 8%
50% 48% 47% 46% 49% 47% 6%
7% 8%
7% 6% 51% 5%
60% 6% 60% 5% 6%
6%
5%
6%
4%
40% 40% 3% 4%
4%
53% 54% 55% 55% 56% 55% 58% 59% 61%
50% 52% 49% 51% 53%
20% 20% 2%
2%
0% 0% 0% 0%
2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Card Penetration Cash & Check mix Card volume growth Card Penetration Cash & Check mix Card volume growth
AsiaPac LatAm
100% 20%
100% 67% 64% 62% 62% 61% 59% 58%
80%
80% 13% 13% 15%
55% 17%
60% 9%
60% 9%
8% 10%
40%
40% 5%
5%
20% 36% 38% 38% 39% 41% 42%
20% 45% 33%
0% 0%
0% 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
2016
Card Penetration Cash & Check mix Card volume growth
Card Penetration Cash & Check mix
Source: Euromonitor, FactSet, Visa (for AsiaPac) Credit Suisse estimates 144
24 January 2020
23. Cross-border payments volumes
Travel and eCommerce key drivers
Cross-border payments volumes for the card networks comprise ~50-60% tourism spend (both consumer and
corporate travel), growing roughly mid-single digits, and ~40-50% eCommerce (this would have been closer to ~70%
travel just ~5 years ago, and ~90%+ travel 20 years ago), growing in the ~20-30% range.
– Tourism spend is inherently discretionary and cyclical as well as more sensitive to geopolitical factors and exchange rates, particularly a
strengthening USD given (1) the US is the largest inbound tourism market in the world, much larger than US outbound, providing only
a partial offset from increased US outbound cross-border; and (2) 33 countries use US currency or are pegged to the US dollar.
– eCommerce spend is more stable, which helps to reduce cross-border volume volatility for the card networks as it increases as a
portion of the mix (this has been happening for years, a trend we expect to continue).
Cross-Border Volume growth on a currency-neutral basis vs. the USD Index (1Q lagged); Strengthening of
the USD generally leads to slower growth in cross-border volumes
“…Start with the thinking of cross-border
25% 15% as both determined by the level of travel
and tourism on the one hand at a
FXN Cross Border Growth YoY
10%
20%
USD Index YoY (1Q lagged)
consumer level, combined with corporate
5% travel and commercial travel at a
15% commercial level, combined with cross-
0% border e-commerce. When you look at all
10% 3 together, you get what the market is
(5%) growing at in a secular way…”
Strengthening of the US dollar
5% contributed to a slowdown in CB – Ajay Banga, CEO, Mastercard
(10%)
growth for V, MA, and PYPL
(February 2019, Q4 2018 earnings call)
0% (15%)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019
Mastercard Visa PayPal USD Index YoY - 1Q lagged
24 January 2020 145
Source: Company filings, FactSet, IMF, researchandmarkets.com, Credit Suisse research
23. Cross-border payments volumes
Strong US dollar weighs on cross-border revenue in 3 ways
PayPal’s cross-border volumes make up ~17% of total, which has
A strong US dollar has three impacts on the financial results of the
trended down from ~22% in early 2016, in part due to increasing
card networks and a selection of merchant acquirers (e.g., PayPal)
Braintree/Venmo mix (historically a more US-focused platform)
Demand destruction
$35tr 22%22%22%22% 25%
Example 1: Brazilian consumers spend less on US-sourced eCommerce websites 21%20%21%20%21%20%
Example 2: European consumer reduces vacation to the US in terms of total trip $30tr 19%
18%18%18%17% 20%
time, or in some cases, opts not to take the trip at all $25tr
Translational impacts $20tr 15%
Example 1: US-based company (V, MA, PYPL) that reports in USD sees reduced
$15tr 10%
reported revenue and earnings as a result of non-USD business being translated
back to fewer USD as part of reported results $10tr
5%
$5tr
Amplified revenue & EBIT impacts
$0tr 0%
Example 1: Generally higher take rates and, thus, higher incremental margins Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
associated with price-based flow through to EBIT and earnings 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019
PayPal cross-border volume % of total
1. Demand destruction for tourism spend in the US given it We believe Visa and Mastercard’s cross-border businesses are
becomes relatively more expensive – only partly offset by US more balanced vs. PayPal’s
outbound increasing given US has significantly more inbound Visa and Mastercard have a greater mix of tourism vs. PayPal,
spend (since US consumers travel less) which has a larger mix of retail eCommerce (meaning card
networks may see increased cross-border outbound from travel
2. Translational impacts that reduce reported cross-border volume
spend when the dollar strengths as an offset to reduced inbound
and revenue from when the USD is stronger
cross-border)
3. Amplified revenue impacts due to higher take rate nature of PayPal has a greater mix of foreign consumers purchasing US
cross-border, meaning there is a disproportionately larger impact goods vs. US consumers purchasing foreign goods (while Visa
on overall revenue and thus margins (given the incremental and Mastercard are more balanced in this sense, creating more
margins on this higher take rate business are higher) of an offset as the USD strengthens and weakens)
Source: Company filings, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 146
23. Cross-border payments volumes
Attractive economics for the networks and acquirers
We believe card network cross-border transactions can earn ~6-8x the yield of Revenue stemming from cross-border (yields higher than a
traditional domestic transactions. Further, Visa and Mastercard process ~75% traditional domestic transaction) vs. volumes for Visa and
and ~56% of their transactions, respectively, although they process ~100% of Mastercard; we est. ~M-HSD% of volumes &~40% of revenue
cross-border transactions (further adding to the revenue gap when comparing 50%
cross-border and domestic transactions). ~41% ~41%
While there are no clear disclosures that allow for the derivation of these 40%
estimates, we use a combination of card network financial results, tourism 30%
spend, eCommerce market sizing, and numerous industry discussions to arrive
at rough estimates of cross-border volume and revenue contributions (i.e., not 20%
precise estimates, but directionally indicative of cross-border’s importance to
~7% ~8%
the business – we aim to refine these over time). 10%
Some of the variances between Visa and Mastercard cross-border net 0%
revenues could also relate to issuer mix (larger issuers for Visa, on average), Visa Mastercard
regional processing share on domestic transactions (i.e., Visa has higher share % Net revenue % Total Volume
of domestic transaction processing vs. Mastercard, in part due to US and UK
mix, where Visa processes the majority of its transactions), and intra-European Reporting of revenue associated
Network
mix (transactions priced more similarly to domestic transactions, though are with cross-border transactions
cross-border technically). Generally speaking, we would expect Mastercard to
have a slightly higher portion of cross-border volume, although a greater
Cross-border related revenue contained in "Service Fees" and
portion of that being intra-Europe vs. Visa.
"Data Processing" (including a processing premium), along
Select merchant acquirers revenue yield can be ~1.3-1.5x higher on cross- Visa
with the bulk of the premium residing in the "International
border transactions (based on rack rate pricing, although large merchants that transaction fees" line item.
have lower negotiated domestic rates could see differing gaps)
– Differentiate by helping merchants avoid high cross-border fees from the
card networks, enabled by local acquiring licenses in a country
Cross-border related revenue contained in "Transaction
– Local licenses allow acquirers to classify transactions as domestic (when Processing Fees" (at a premium), and also within "Cross
the merchant maintains a business entity in the country), allowing the Mastercard Border Volume Fees"; Mastercard's "Domestic
transaction to be processed in the local currency (avoids increased Assessments" revenue line item does not contain brand fees
network fees, increased interchange, and improves authorization rates) associated with cross-border transactions.
Source: Wells Fargo Merchant Services for US merchants, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 147
23. Cross-border payments volumes
Enabling global marketplace sellers and freelancers
Marketplace sellers and freelancers are increasingly engaged on a cross-border basis, creating a need for cross-border currency management
platforms such as Payoneer, EBANX, Airwallex, PingPong, and others, along with similar offerings via Transferwise and Revolut
Platforms can be thought of as global treasury networks offered as-a-service to SMBs
– Core offering involves multi-currency / “borderless” small business bank accounts, combined with the ability to convert back to the seller/freelancer’s
home currency within the provider’s ecosystem (at a reduced rate vs. what might be charged by an eCommerce platform or what might be available via
a traditional banking relationship)
– Ability to pay out to local suppliers in local currency (further reducing FX fees given the currency remains local, often leveraging local payments schemes
and/or faster payments rails for last-mile delivery); supplemented by cards attached to the borderless account, providing instant access
– Additional services might include working capital products (lending), eWallets, VAT services, fraud combatting solutions, etc.
Company Overview of cross-border platform and how it supports SMB merchants
• Hong Kong-based platform with strength in APAC
Airwallex • Customers include: JD.com, Tencent, and Shopify; investors include: Tencent, Sequoia, DST, and Mastercard
• 130+ countries and 50+ currencies
• Brazilian-based platform that offers payments for the entire eCommerce transaction
EBANX
• Allows global merchants to more easily reach Brazilian consumers
• International money transfer for marketplace sellers and freelancers, along with working capital offerings, payout capabilities, and fraud
combatting solutions for marketplace partners
Payoneer • “Millions” of customers and “billions” of volumes annually, across 200 countries and 150 currencies
• KYC, AML investment (automating as much as possible – i.e., in the US, 86% of accounts automatically onboard and get approved)
• Provides solutions for marketplaces to combat fraud (~4% of revenues, with ~60-70% of fraud via by repeat users/opening new stores)
• Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China-based platform with $10b+ in payments volume
PingPong
• Amazon-focused for sellers in China (also works with sellers on NewEgg, Wish, and others) aiming to reduce cross-border fees for 3P sellers
Transferwise & • Offer borderless accounts that compete with other companies on this page (although core business is in P2P money transfer)
Revolut
Source: Company filings, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 148
B2B/Corporate Payments
24. B2B payments coming of age
Underpenetrated growth market nearing inflection
$125tr TAM that is so large it almost does not merit discussion; accounts payable (AP) payments between businesses represent
~$110tr (~90%) of the B2B opportunity, of which ~20% is “card-able” and ~$10tr is cross-border
Card networks are enablers for the rest of the ecosystem by embracing alternative payment types in B2B (e.g., efforts in bill-pay, virtual
cards, push payments, account-to-account)
Public and private technology companies building software and workflows to unlock this opportunity (i.e., issue is less around the
payments themselves and more on the processes, reconciliation, data, workflows, etc.)
B2B pure-players, FleetCor and WEX, differentiated with comprehensive B2B capabilities targeted at SMBs – both can now handle the
entire AP file and are building supplier networks to help address the pain points below
Global B2B TAM ~$125tr volume opportunity, although with various means While the actual payments can be less
of monetizing volume (ad valorem via virtual cards, cents per transaction on of an issue, antiquated processes, reconciliation, data, and a lack of
ACH, SaaS fees, etc.) automation are common pain points
$140tr
Cash & Check Highly manual (people-intensive) processes are slow and expensive, given a lack of
$125tr automation, and error prone
ACH
$120tr
Carded
$38tr Checks have hidden costs (e.g., checks can be in the ~$4-20 range vs. ~$3 per
$100tr
ACH transaction, per AvidXchange) and are not guaranteed good funds
$80tr
~$90-95tr
domestic Limited transaction data from payments make reconciliation difficult
$60tr $52tr accounts
payable
$17tr $84tr
$40tr Cash flow management difficulty – i.e., paying on the due date with certainty vs.
$7tr mailing a check a few days ahead of time, lacking certainty
$20tr
$28tr
$0tr $2tr Lack of visibility into supplier payment preferences
Global Consumer Payments Global B2B Payments
Source: Mastercard, Visa, Credit Suisse, Rounding differences for B2B payments figure 24 January 2020 150
24. B2B payments coming of age
Companies under coverage with B2B exposure (V, MA, FLT, WEX)
Company Overview of B2B assets
• Commercial business: corporate cards, travel and expense cards, fleet cards, and small business cards, representing ~11% of volume
• Mastercard Track Business Payments to optimize B2B flows, acting as the switch and directory (~210mm registered entitles as of September 2019)
• Leading provider of Fast ACH solutions (Vocalink & Nets), representing 67% of the addressable B2B TAM
Mastercard
• Transfast, account-to-account payments platform, allows MA to reach ~90% of the world’s bank accounts
• Largest Virtual Cards business and push payment capabilities from Mastercard Send
• Bill Pay Exchange (launched 4Q 2019), targeting a $4tr TAM in the US, and global capabilities gained from the Nets acquisition
• Corporate cards, also representing 11% of volume
• Visa Direct, the company’s rapidly scaling push payments product, growing +100% YoY to reach ~$200b of volume in 2019 (CS estimate), which
combines with Earthport’s account-to-account payments capabilities providing Visa with access to 99% of bank accounts in the top 50 markets; currently
Visa
working with all large remittance providers
• B2B Connect, distributed ledger-based cross-border platform for higher-value transactions/larger merchants (FIS and Bottomline distribution partners)
• Business Payments Network, payments directory that contains payments preferences (which suppliers take what type of payments)
• >80% of revenue derived from B2B payments: Fuel (45%), Corporate Payments (17%), Tolls (14%), and Lodging (7%)
FleetCor • Full suite of Accounts Payable products with ability to handle the full spectrum of payment methods (Nvoicepay acquisition in 2019), including cross-
(Pure-play border (Cambridge acquisition in 2017)
B2B) • Largest issuer of virtual cards (Comdata acquisition in 2014), and is building a vertical specific supplier network to accept virtual cards (separate
integration required), consisting of ~1mm distinct businesses
• >85% of revenue derived from B2B payments: Fuel (66%), Travel (12%), and Corporate Payments (8%)
WEX • Pioneer of virtual cards first used in the travel industry, with the broadest virtual card issuance (Mastercard, Visa and JCB)
(Pure-play • Complete accounts payable file servicing, with the ability to make payment by virtual card, ACH, check, or wire transfer
B2B) • White-label virtual card management platform for banks, leveraging assets from the AOC acquisition – customers include AXP & PNC
• WEX also white-labels its Accounts Payable product to banks (AXP, PNC), leveraging assets from the AOC acquisition in 2017
• Offers invoicing and bill-pay to corporates and consumers via capabilities gained from the Noventis acquisition in 2019
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 151
24. B2B payments coming of age
Additional B2B assets at various public companies
Company Overview of B2B assets
• Legacy Worldpay expanded into B2B with the 2017 acquisition of Paymetric, which manages and automates payment workflows within enterprise systems
(Oracle, Hybris, Sales, etc.)
FIS
• FIS provides traditional B2B solutions to its bank customers, such as cash and treasury management
• FIS is planning to create a broader B2B solution by combining its treasury management solutions with Paymetric
• Management sees the potential for increased B2B money movement by combining FISV cash management, CheckFree RXP (e-Billing solution) with some of
First Data’s payments capabilities
FISV
• Leader in bank-based Zelle implementation and considers B2B a potential opportunity for the Zelle platform
• Popmoney capabilities in B2B money disbursements
• Called out B2B as an opportunity from the TSYS acquisition with Netspend’s payroll card
Global Payments
• Global Payments views Netspend as a launch pad into B2B areas including invoicing and accounts payable automation (both in the US and on a global basis)
• Bill Pay TAM expansion via the January 2019 partnership with Paymentus and more partnerships expected to be announced
PayPal
• PayPal’s network with +23mm merchants positions the company well for further expansion into B2B payments
• Initial step into B2B payments with its Invoices product, enabling sellers to send professional invoices
• Launched Square Card in January 2019, a business debit card for Square merchants
Square • Also offers Cash App for business, allowing merchants to accept payments via Cash App
• We expect Square to launch additional B2B products, such as a business credit card through Square Capital, Square’s lending arm that provides working capital
loans to merchants with an average loan size of ~$7k, along with other features enhancing expense management
• Recent acquisition of APS Payments for entry into B2B vertical
Repay • Integrations into Sage, SAP, Adagio, etc. representing an immediate addressable opportunity of ~$80b in volumes vs. RPAY 2019 ~$10b
• Will compete with Paymetric (among others) in this vertical
• Provides accounts payable and receivable solutions and accounting software integrations
Bill.com • Partnerships with FleetCor for virtual cards
• SMB-focused platform, with likely some overlap with FleetCor in the lower-mid-market
Bottomline • Offers Paymode-X B2B payments platform with 400k+ members in network and $200b+ annual volume
Technologies • Included distribution through key banking partners (e.g., Bank of America)
• Payment solutions for SMBs, mostly consisting of cross-border payments, and white-labels the solution to banks
Western Union
• Industry-specific solutions, customizing their offering by vertical
Source: Company reports, Digiday, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 152
25. Virtual cards in B2B Payments
A key driver of card penetration in B2B payments
First introduced in the early 2000s, primarily used in B2B travel and fleet management
Now a key component in automating Accounts Payable/Accounts Receivable-related payments, replacing inefficient paper-based
payments that require manual efforts for both sides
Roughly ~20%-40%+ of an AP file can be addressed via virtual cards, although it may require individual supplier discussions to
educate on the benefits, costs, etc. (companies like FleetCor and WEX do this when given a complete AP file)
Virtual card numbers function like a token, serving as a substitute for the underlying account number
– Single-use cards - good for only one transaction, enhanced safety/security
– Lodge cards - reusable virtual card, typically stored with a trusted vendor
Virtual cards are one of the fastest growing areas in payments, expected to deliver a near
~20% CAGR 2017-2021E (roughly ~2-3x underlying industry growth rates)
$286b
$240b
$192b
$155b
$124b
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: WEX, eNett, Mastercard, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 153
25. Virtual cards in B2B Payments
Virtual cards leaders FleetCor and WEX
WEX is the pioneer of virtual card usage, focused on online travel.
WEX and FLT have large acceptance (supplier) networks (WEX quotes ~2.5mm, while FleetCor quotes ~1mm), with WEX’s scale
enhanced by white-labeling its corporate payments product through financial institutions (e.g., PNC, American Express).
– FleetCor offers Comdata Mastercard virtual cards for customers to pay invoices.
– Both WEX and FleetCor have specific teams designated to signing up suppliers (i.e., gain an AP file, attempt to increase virtual card acceptance
penetration within the suppliers that are to be paid).
– eNett is WEX’s primary competitor in travel payments with a strong presence in Southeast Asia (eNett is currently part of Travelport which was
taken private in May 2019).
Key benefits of virtual card usage
Improve speed and simplification of AR & AP reconciliation processes
Reduce operating costs – scale from process efficiency, reduces errors, helps to avoid FX markups (up to 3%)
Increase control of corporate spend – limit a purchase to the amount, date, merchant, and MCC code
Revenue opportunity from financial incentives (rebates) on transactions
Reduce fraud – single-use virtual card numbers can only be used once with the controls above
Better reporting with enhanced data from card transactions
Source: WEX, eNett, Mastercard, Credit Suisse 24 January 2020 154
25. Virtual cards in B2B Payments
Virtual Card mechanics within traditional AP/AR
Virtual cards can help to decrease check processing costs, reduce manual processing errors, and enable direct linking
of payments to expenses.
Beyond cost savings, virtual card usage can lead to rebates – to the point of turning AP functions into revenue
generators vs. cost centers, adding to the value proposition around efficiencies, reconciliation, etc.
Specifically, interchange earned on virtual cards can be (depending on the arrangement) shared back with the
underlying payee, helping to reduce the total costs of AP operations.
Accounts Payable (AP) process overview with Virtual Card providers
Purchaser/Business
Entire AP file centralized by one provider
Reduces AP management costs
Easier reporting with enhanced trans. data
One card on file with virtual card provider
Virtual Card Provider (FLT, WEX, etc.) Vendor
Aggregates the entire AP file Pays with Virtual Card Virtual card provider enrolls vendor
Simplifies payment tracking Pays MDR
Limits vendor charge to specified amount Receives no sensitive card data
Protects card number No ability to over-charge
Source: WEX, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 155
25. Virtual cards in B2B Payments
Virtual Card mechanics within the travel segment
Virtual cards within travel are mainly utilized with hotels booked online via OTAs (key clients include Expedia
and Booking.com), specifically when the OTA employs the merchant model (i.e., takes payments for the hotel
from the customer, and later sends a virtual card payment to the hotelier upon stay).
Booking.com was traditionally an agency model OTA but has more recently began utilizing the merchant
model for both hotels and alterative accommodations (e.g., vacation rentals).
WEX plans to focus on non-hotel travel markets (airlines, vacation rentals, tours & activities, and car
rental), which make up two-thirds of online travel.
Online travel agency (OTA) virtual card process overview
Travel company Travel company
Supplier charges Transaction
makes reservation requests Virtual Travel company
Virtual Card reconciles
for consumer and Card Number, WEX settles with WEX
Number automatically
receives payment provides credit
Source: WEX, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 156
26. Next leg of B2B payments puts SMB services in focus
Whitespace opportunity created by historical distribution and tech issues
Whitespace opportunity created by small banks lacking SMB represents $10tr of the $24tr US B2B Payments TAM
distribution to profitably reach SMBs, along with
underdeveloped product offering (e.g., primarily $25tr
corporate cards), as the vast majority of these banks
outsource their IT $20tr $5tr
Small businesses
$5tr
We estimate 75% of the US $10tr SMB B2B payments TAM $15tr Medium
is addressable, with key areas including accounts businesses
payable/accounts receivable, corporate cards, and expense $10tr
management $14tr
$5tr
Incumbents working with FinTechs to overcome hurdles: $0tr
US B2B Payments Volume TAM
– Distribution - Multi-pronged approach leveraging current clients,
a direct salesforce, and partners such as banks (WEX) and
FinTechs (FleetCor, WEX, PayPal) Square offers Square Invoices, Square Card, and Cash App
for Business; we expect more B2B products to come (i.e.,
expense management and/or credit card offerings)
– Technology and capabilities - Comprehensive product sets, the
ability to make their products accessible to Fintech partners
(e.g., APIs), and integrations into accounting software (e.g.,
QuickBooks, Xero)
Square offers invoicing (Square Invoices), debit products today
(Square Card), and Cash App for Business; we expect more
B2B products to come, particularly around expense
management and/or credit card offerings
Source: Company Data, Deliotte, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 157
26. Next leg of B2B payments puts SMB services in focus
Numerous fast-growing private companies developing solutions
Overview of a selection (not exhaustive) of private B2B payments companies serving the SMB and middle-market segment
• Provides accounts payable and receivable solutions and accounting software integrations
Bill.com
• Partnerships with FleetCor for virtual cards
IPO in Q4 2019
• SMB-focused platform, with likely some overlap with FleetCor in the lower-mid-market
• Provides start-ups of all sizes with a corporate credit card
BREX • Helps businesses reach higher credit limits, expense management, automation and accounting integration
• Launched BREX Cash, a business checking account in October 2019 that enables no-fee B2B ACH and wire payments
• Business expense management and budgeting tools are free to customers, currently monetized via virtual card economics
Divvy
• Partners with WEX for corporate and virtual cards
• Provides accounts payable and receivable solutions and accounting software integrations
AvidXchange • Partnerships with FleetCor for virtual cards
• SMB-focused platform, with likely some overlap with FleetCor in the lower-mid-market
• Provides an end-to-end payment cycle management solution, which automates every step of the invoice-to-cash process
Billtrust • Business Payments Network (BPN), a payments directory that contains payments preferences (i.e., details around which suppliers
take what type of payments, various terms around timing, discounts, etc.)
• Focused on accounts payable automation
MineralTree • Emphasis on middle-market merchants
• Recently hired (October 2019) Comdata (FleetCor) veteran Vijay Ramnathan
• Focused on accounts payable automation for cross-border payments (“consumerization” of cross-border experience)
Veem
• Proprietary multi-rail technology, businesses can send or receive money in a click, track their payments end-to-end
• Receipt management and expense tools for SMBs, along with Visa card offering attached
Expensify
• Competes with Divvy, Concur, etc.
• Provides accounts payable and receivable solutions and accounting software integrations
Tipalti
• Works with both SMB and mid-market business
Source: Company Data, Deliotte, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 158
Back-End Banking Innovation
27. “Faster payments” & “RTP” become more real
Real-Time Payments (“Fast ACH”) overview
“Traditional ACH” systems were designed in the 1970s to replace checks, with no significant updates since
– ACH systems are how banks send money to other banks domestically and make up the largest part of a country’s payments
system (ex-wires)
– Process transactions 1-2 times a day in batches and can take up to 3 days for funds to be made available (closed on weekends)
Fast ACH is the first overhaul of domestic payments (connecting banks); main advantages over legacy systems:
– Speed & availability – Payments are authorized and (often) settled simultaneously, making funds available instantly, operating 24/7
– Data – Utilizing ISO 20022 messaging standard (adopted in +70 countries)
Key drivers & enablers of “faster payments” and RTP globally
Central bank mandates to update national payments systems to reduce cash (increase taxes),
financial inclusion, and innovation
Mastercard, the leading provider of Fast ACH globally with Vocalink and Nets (working with 11 of
the top 50 GDP countries already)
Bank technology providers (FIS, FISV, JKHY, Finastra, ACI, etc.) will need to connect their bank
customers to any new payments systems
Increasing consumer and business (B2B applications) demand for faster payments
Source: Mastercard, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 160
27. “Faster payments” & “RTP” become more real
Real-Time Payments (“Fast ACH”) overview
Adoption of RTP in consumer payments will vary by country
UK Faster Payments has been live since 2008
(e.g., dominant in Denmark now), although we do not expect
any meaningful market share gains at the expense of cards in
core markets like the US over the medium term.
We expect initial use cases will be targeted at traditional
ACH/Check flows in B2B/P2P/G2C payments.
We note that banks do not earn interchange on faster
payments/ACH/RTP and, therefore, lack a direct monetary
incentive to encourage adoption of RTP for retail payments
(although incentives are driven by consumer experience and
demands).
Historically, payment infrastructure innovation has happened
only on the card network side, but now, FinTechs can start
building services off of these lower-cost rails.
UK Faster Payments has been live since 2008 and has
included P2P, P2B, B2B, B2P, G2B, and G2P transactions
through mobile or online means.
Vocalink (Mastercard) is the underlying system and operator.
Source: Mastercard, FIS, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 161
27. “Faster payments” & “RTP” become more real
54 schemes live vs. 14 in 2014 and 40 in 2018
Source: FIS (41 scored above) 24 January 2020 162
27. “Faster payments” & “RTP” become more real
Mastercard’s role in RTP as an important global enabler
Made possible in part by the acquisitions of both Vocalink (2016) and Nets (2019)
Mastercard also has a leading (first-mover) position with Fintech companies that will use faster payment rails
Mastercard, the leading provider of Fast ACH globally with Vocalink and Nets
(working with 11 of the top 50 GDP countries already); 54 countries in total now have real-time payments systems
xx countries have RTP, X countries on the way
Source: Mastercard, FIS, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 163
27. “Faster payments” & “RTP” become more real
Mastercard’s three-pronged approach (rails, apps, & services)
Holistic approach on all three layers of RTP: (1) infrastructure (rails), (2) applications, and (3) services
– Important because all three layers are necessary for the ecosystem to start utilizing RTP (i.e., infrastructure layer to enable FinTechs, while
apps & services support incumbents)
– For the first time, scaled industry incumbents are innovating on a new set of rails beyond just cards
Global approach with regional hubs in each market will facilitate directly connecting domestic payment systems; numerous
FinTechs were founded to solve inefficiencies caused by lack of global connectivity (Revolut, Transferwise, Airwallex)
– Domestic payment systems not being connected globally is an advantage of card rails today (vs. traditional correspondent banking system)
– Enriched transaction data from ISO 20022 messaging standard (in +70 countries), an important ingredient that will help empower FinTechs
to create services that compete with the card rails (albeit today a non-perfect solution given numerous iterations of the standard, but
potential to be fully interoperable in time)
Company Vocalink Nets Mastercard
• Smaller markets
Infrastructure • Larger markets • Extended global coverage
• Fast deployment
• Sophisticated & customized • Industry-leading solutions
• Region-specific capabilities
• US Bill Pay (C2B) • Proven applications (e.g., Pay by Account)
Applications • Europe Bill Pay
• Transactis • New flow penetration (e.g., bill-pay)
• E-invoicing & new billing platform
• Pay by Account (P2M) • Extensive roadmap
• Suite of services & analytics • Broad opportunity to sell suite of services
Services • Additional market access
• Can be provided across technologies & analytics
Source: Mastercard, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 164
27. “Faster payments” & “RTP” become more real
A focus on progress being made in the US, RTP by TCH
Where it stands today – roughly 50% of all US bank accounts are connected
RTP in the US has been live since 2017
to TCH’s RTP, expected to reach near ubiquity in 2020
Utilizes a unique approach – “equity in a pooled account” at the Federal
Reserve to allow for instant settlement
Credit push only (no debit pull), with a request for payment feature (effectively
a merchant or biller can ask for a push)
Where will these faster payments rails be used?
– Banks making B2B, P2P, B2C, and C2B transfers (24/7, 365)
– B2B payments using this system can be thought of as “precision payments”
given the known send/receive time (~15 seconds vs. up to three days for
traditional ACH); RTP will include data important for B2B payments (e.g.,
invoice details via use of the ISO 200 22 messaging standard)
– Instant deposit products for merchants and consumers (PayPal using RTP
already as an alternative to card-based instant transfer)
What rails will it replace?
– Alternative to checks and the traditional “slow ACH” rails (which operate via
batched or delayed payments) initially, expanding over time
– These rails could also be used domestically as a substitute for Visa Direct and
Mastercard Send when possible (likely due to reduced costs)
Vocalink is the underlying system, but not the operator (licensing only)
Source: FIS, The Clearing House, Levvel, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 165
27. “Faster payments” & “RTP” become more real
A focus on progress being made in the US
System Owners Overview & Status
• Launched in December 2017, now reaches +50% of US bank accounts
The Clearing • First new core US payments infrastructure to be built in over four decades, licensing Mastercard’s technology (Vocalink)
25 large US
House (TCH)
commercial bank • Pricing structure consists of flat fees and no volume discounts, and only the originating bank pays for a transaction
Real-Time
owners
Payments (RTP) • Credit transfer sent costs $0.045 per transaction (e.g., P2P), request for payment sent $0.01 per transaction, and a
$0.10 request for payment incentive fee paid by the bank that initiated the payment
• Initially launched by JPM, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America in 2011 as clearXchange, rebranded to Zelle in 2017
• US banks view Zelle as their antidote to compete with Venmo and Cash App
• Participating banks represent 80% of bank accounts in the US
Zelle 7 large US • Zelle can reach any Visa or Mastercard debit card in the US, providing reach to consumers that don’t have Zelle available
(Early Warning commercial through their bank, leveraging network push payment rails (Visa Direct, Mastercard Send)
Services) banks • Current use cases are for P2P and disbursements (government, corporate-like insurance payouts)
• Potential to be used for consumer purchases, per comments from Fiserv
• Real Time? For end users, transactions occur in real time via banks “fronting” the funds, but the actual funds settle
overnight via ACH rails
• Similar to TCH’s RTP network, but operated and owned by the Federal Reserve
FedNow
US Federal • Expected to launch in 2023-2024 and will increase competition in RTP, a net positive for the ecosystem
(live in
Reserve • “The U.S. real-time retail payment infrastructure stands to gain from competition, including through higher service quality
2023-2024)
and lower prices over the long run,” – Fed Governor Brainard
Source: TCH, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 166
28. Issuer Processing key drivers and overview
Card issuer processing seeing stable volumes and TAM additions
US card transactions have grown in the ~6-7% range and are
Traditional issuer processors enable banks to approve card transactions expected to sustain mid-single-digit growth (account growth &
and can provide end-to-end card services, with key functions including: transaction growth are revenue drivers for issuer processors)
– Outsourced authorization and settlement of card transactions 10.0%
– Card production, billing, and statement printing
8.0% 7.7% 7.5%
7.2% 7.0% 7.3%
– Operating customer service call centers 6.4%
6.7% 6.5%
6.2% 5.9%
5.8%
Key drivers of issuer processing revenues are (1) account growth and 6.0%
(2) transaction growth
4.0%
– Number of customer accounts: Receive monthly service fees based on
the total number of active customer accounts
2.0%
– Card transaction growth is expected to remain in the mid-single digits
through 2023E
0.0%
– Credit is generally more economically sensitive than debit 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
– Note: This is how traditional issuer processing fees are earned – modern
TSYS sizes the issuer processing market $15b+ when including
issuer processors (e.g., Marqeta) do not charge fees directly to their
expanded services that card issuers spend on digital, customer
customers – rather, they share in the interchange earned (i.e., are not acquisition, etc.
compensated by the issuer on a per account or transaction basis, rather
via a revenue share)
$15b+ traditional issuer processing TAM Expanded TAM,
additional ~$8.5b
– Core TAM: ~$7.4b growing ~3% CAGR long-term, based on spend by
card issuers on processing costs that are currently or can be outsourced
Core TAM
– Expanded TAM: $8.5b additional value-added services that card issuers ~$7.4b
spend on digital experiences, self-service, digital marketing, and customer
acquisition and commercial payments
Source: Company data, Euromonitor, TSYS, Credit Suisse
research 24 January 2020 167
28. Issuer Processing key drivers and overview
Concentrated market in credit issuer processing, less so for debit
Credit issuer processing is dominated by TSYS (Global Payments), which US credit card issuer processing market share data based on
maintains ~40% share, processing ~40% of all US Visa and Mastercard number of accounts (estimated), with TSYS the clear leader (largest
accounts, including ~90% of their US commercial credit cards. competition being in-house processing)
For larger financial institutions, TSYS, First Data (Fiserv), and FIS (including the First Data FIS and Jack
legacy Worldpay issuer processing) are the key players. (FISV) Henry, 4%
processing, 9%
– TSYS is focused almost exclusively on credit issuance and larger issuers
(although we could see TAM expansion for TSYS further into debit and/or by
engaging with smaller issuers on a select basis).
– TSYS has dominant share in the US (8 of the top 10 issuers), Canada (7 of
the top 10 issuers), UK (6 of the top 10), Ireland (4 of the top 5 issuers), and In-house
China (JV with China Union Pay), along with the second largest issuer TSYS processing,
processing business in Western Europe. processing, 45%
42%
For smaller community banks & credit unions, Fiserv (legacy Fiserv), Worldpay
(legacy issuer processing), and Jack Henry are the more common providers.
Additional players more in the “modern card issuance” category include By accounts on file (credit and debit) on a global basis, First Data is
Marqeta, i2c, Stripe Issuing, InComm, Galileo, CoreCard, and others. the largest base, while TSYS is the leader in US credit issuer
processing (and in Canada, UK, Ireland, and China [JV with CUP] and
is the number two business in Western Europe)
Smaller bank/issuer skew Larger bank/issuer skew
1,400mm 1,229mm TSYS is credit issuer processing focused,
1,200mm while First Data also has a large debit issuer
processing business (~<30% of AOF)
1,000mm
800mm 639mm
600mm
400mm 286mm
200mm
0mm
First Data (Fiserv) TSYS (GPN) FIS (including
Worldpay)
Source: TSYS, Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 168
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
Healthy bank IT spend outlook driven by a need for banks to modernize
“It is a constant, never-ending set of investments that have to be
Bank IT spend environment (+4.5% through 2021) is driven by an
made because as everyone in the audience knows our expectations
increasing need for banks to modernize their infrastructure by change every day as we visit Amazon or Google or WeChat or
leaning on technology providers. whatever technology provider – Facebook – that you want to talk
Banking is increasingly becoming a technology business, with 73% about, it changes the expectations that we have for our financial
institutions. That puts pressure on the institutions to invest and
of US consumer banking interactions now occurring digitally,
that’s good for us because it allows us to go into the market,
lowering barriers to entry for FinTechs and large technology
aggregate services, deliver them both on a one-off and is scalable..”
platforms (e.g., Apple, Amazon) on one side of the barbell and
favoring large incumbents with the capital to invest on the other. – Jeff Yabuki, Fiserv CEO (March 12, 2019)
~2/3 of bank tech spending in North America is maintenance related, but 80% of The top three IT spending priorities of banks are regulatory,
the growth in IT spending is earmarked for new investments customer service, and implementation of new technology
$120b 16%
56%
$100b
46%
12%
$80b $69
$68
$68
$67 30%
$60b $67 8%
$66
$40b
4%
$20b $42 $46
$33 $37
$26 $29
$0b 0%
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Regulatory compliance Enhancing customer Implementing new
service technology
Maintenance New Investments New Investments YoY
Maintenance YoY Total spend YoY
Source: Celent, PWC, Company data, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 169
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
Consolidation headwinds offset by shift toward digital
Despite long-term consolidation trends, US retail banking remains highly fragmented with >10k institutions (~2x Europe)
Consolidation among US banks set to continue, driven by:
– Desire for M&A cost synergies to reduce spend given high costs of regulation and technology upgrades
– Intensifying competitive pressures from both sides of the barbell (i.e., the larger money center banks and FinTechs/BigTech)
– Exacerbated by profitability pressures from historically low interest rates (net interest margin pressure)
Predominantly at the low end of the market (impacts Fiserv and Jack Henry most), leaves fewer bigger banks to serve
Consolidation trends in the US banking industry, with the number of
Banks seeing pressure from all sides (customer demands, regulatory,
banks decreasing ~3% per year (although both accounts & transactions
competition, industry consolidation, and profitability pressures)
continue to grow, more important near-term drivers of growth)
25,000 Customer Demands
Credit Unions Competitive Dynamics
24/7 responsiveness Big banks gaining share
Banks
20,000 Rising expectations set by Challenger banks
mainstream apps
BigTech
10,464 Convenience
15,000
7,966
10,000
5,548
Regulatory Burden Industry Backdrop
5,000 11,225 High compliance costs Profitability pressures from
8,305 (Dodd-Frank) low interest rates
5,477
Ring-fencing, KYC Channel shifts to online
-
PSD2 (Europe) Consolidation
1998 2008 2018
Source: CUNA, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 170
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
FinTechs are on one end of the “barbell”, big banks are on the other
Scale of the top four big banks in the US (which maintain ~63% of Both ends of the “barbell” are gaining share, in part due to better
technology/user experience, along with tech & marketing spend
assets) allows for annual technology budgets of ~$40b, equivalent
to the entirety of global FinTech funding in 2018 (per CB Insights). Neo/Challenger Regional banks, community
banks (FinTech) and banks, & credit unions
We estimate Fiserv and FIS spent a combined ~$10b in 2018 large technology (core FISV, FIS, JKHY
Large US banks
technology spend supporting their banking clients. platforms (BigTech) customers)
As FinTechs (and BigTech) continue to gain new accounts, there is
Chime, Revolut, Monzo, JP Morgan Chase,
a longer-term potential for these platforms to pressure accounts N26, Uber Money, Google, Bank of America,
and transaction growth at small- to mid-sized US banks (although Square Cash App, Varo ~10-11k US financial Wells Fargo, Citi,
we currently believe the majority serve as secondary accounts, and Money, Apple, Marcus by institutions US Bank, PNC,
are thus, at least currently, incremental from an account basis and Goldman Sachs, Affirm, TD Bank, Truist,
etc. Capital One
a rounding error in terms of transactions).
2018 estimated technology spend budgets show the big banks in a
FinTechs in the US now have ~43mm users in aggregate; longer-term
league of their own (annual technology spend of ~$40b) vs. FISV &
potential to pressure account growth and transactions
FIS’s combined ~$10b in spend
90 mm 78 mm $12
73 mm $11b
80 mm $10b
$10 $9b
70 mm 59 mm $8b
60 mm $8
50 mm 43 mm
$6 $5b
40 mm
$4b
30 mm 21 mm $4
15 mm
20 mm
8 mm $2
5 mm
3 mm 4 mm 4 mm 4 mm
10 mm
0 mm $0
Monzo N26 Stash Marcus Chime Revolut Cash Total Citi JP BofA Wells Bank of JP Morgan Citigroup Wells Fargo FIS Fiserv
App Morgan Fargo America
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates; Note: FISV and FIS bank tech spend estimates are based on a combination of related 2018 operating
24 January 2020 171
expenses (ex-SG&A), capex, and acquisitions (fluctuates by year) and are meant solely to be directional indicators vs. precise figures
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
Key drivers of growth for US banking technology providers
US banking technology businesses (e.g., Fiserv, FIS, Jack Four key components to growth in US banking technology businesses
Henry) are mid-single-digit growers, with the majority of growth (e.g., Fiserv, FIS, Jack Henry, etc.)
coming from existing customers.
Four components of growth: 6%
~Mid-single-digit growth
1. CPI-based escalators included in contracts
New clients,
2. Add-on product sales (e.g., bill-pay, Zelle, RTP, online 5%
term fees, etc.
banking, and other services sold by core providers and
integrated into the core system), including upgrades to Account
more dated versions growth &
4% transaction
3. Account & transaction growth (checking accounts, debit growth
cards, transactions processed)
4. New client additions (smallest driver), term fees, and other 3%
Add-on
While there are potential headwinds to monitor in the longer term products
(traditional banks’ potential to lose account & transaction share (cross-sell &
among digitally native generations, increased desire for and up-sell)
2%
investment in third-party bank technology competitors, any
acceleration in US banking consolidation trends), existing
providers have meaningful moats with their bank customers
1% CPI-based
(sticky relationships – with just ~1-2% of banks changing core
providers per year, the ability to price ancillary bank IT services escalators
attractively given low incremental costs, a track record, and an
increased capacity to maintain technology leadership organically 0%
and via bolt-on M&A, further supported by elevated FCF due to Components of growth for US core bank tech providers
recent mergers and associated cost synergies).
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research; Note: Growth contribution portions illustrative 24 January 2020 172
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
Core conversions viewed as challenging and expensive IT projects
“…“And then finally, modern core banking system. Many of you know, this is something that we started working on about a year ago that's progressing very nicely.
It's a multiyear project. But we've moved steadily through the due diligence phase. We know who we want to partner with, although we haven't announced that
publicly yet. We expect that next year will be much about planning and testing for the conversion, which will then probably take place in 2021. So right now, that is on
time, on budget. We're quite excited about how that's going. I can tell you this about the system that we'll be moving towards, it is a much more modular and much
more open system than the one that we have now. It's tested, it's true, it's already in implementation. But we're delighted by the fact that it's got a lot more open
APIs, it facilitates many more integrations, not only with their own modules, but with other partners, which will allow us to partner with FinTechs where we want to,
with other providers, allows us to choose best-in-breed services and facilitate a true omnichannel experience. Because all of the transaction data comes into one
place and can then be used to populate things like CRM systems or other means of tracking transactions and taking care of our clients.”
– Jason Bender, COO, First Republic Bank (November 2019, at First Republic Bank’s Investor Day)
Factors for Core System Replacement Factors Against Core System Replacement
Viewed as the hardest project a bank can undertake; it can be risky and
Legacy cores are expensive to maintain
take ~6 months to 2 years to complete
Expensive, with potential de-conversion and integration fees that often
Faster time to market for new products
equal ~>90% of the remaining contract value
Need for more open platforms that remove friction from partnering with Long contracts (3-7 years), comfort with existing provider, and desire for
FinTechs a single vendor limit other options
Need for a centralized view of customer data across product silos, full
Limited IT budgets and digital investment priorities
access to customer data, and real-time transaction posting
Legacy programming languages (Cobol) are not relevant for top tech Different talent requirements: modern core platforms written in modern
talent and are inefficient language
Source: Company reports, Aite Group, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 173
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
We estimate that only ~1-2% of banks switch core providers per year
We estimate that only ~1-2% of banks switch core providers per
year, with core conversions viewed as the most challenging and “…I’ve heard time and again the desire to have a nimble and agile
core so they can provide a customer experience served with
expensive IT project a bank can undertake.
efficiency and effectiveness.. I’ve discussed it with hundreds of bank
This dynamic alone makes it difficult for new entrants to gain CEOs.. A great portion of them are very excited about a future core
meaningful market share. dialogue that moves in this direction..”
– American Bankers Association CEO, Rob Nichols, in an interview
The ABA Core Platforms Committee (and ABA investment behind
discussing their Finxact investment
Finxact) suggests some degree of desire from a subset of banks and
credit unions to at least consider alternatives.
Only ~1-2% of US banks switch their core providers each year (vs. ~20% US bank tech market share shows Fiserv as the leader by the
that come up for contract renewal given ~5-year average contracts) number of banks, with FIS more skewed to larger-sized banks
250 New Core Banking Contracts % of Banks and Credit Unions 3% Banks by asset size FIS Fiserv Jack Henry
Market share (# of banks) 12% 38% 16%
200
1.9% 1.9%
1.8% 2% Large banks (>$30b) 41 7 1
150 1.6% 1.6%
1.4%
Mid-size banks ($10-$30b) 37 19 6
236
100 205 213 209
196
169 1% Small banks ($5-10b) 37 24 14
50 Community banks (<$5b) 909 2,164 1,020
0 0% Credit Unions 239 1,886 695
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
Total 1,263 4,100 1,736
Source: Company reports, Aite Group, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 174
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
Bank technology providers’ mobile banking solutions
Mobile banking app ratings offered by larger banks within the Apple
Fiserv has experienced mobile-related growth of ~20% App Store are generally receiving high scores, creating a challenge
over the past ~4-5 years and plans to allocate a portion for community banks and credit unions
of its $500mm innovation investment (as part of the 5 4.8 4.8 4.8
First Data merger) on digital enablement 4.6
4.5
– Mobiliti, Architect, Corillian, and other services to a range of
community banks and credit unions 4
– Recently signed New York Community Bank (> $50b assets),
which opted to use Fiserv’s DNA along with ~40 additional 3.5
solutions, including Mobiliti and OpenNow/FundNow (online
account acquisition) 3
Chase Bank of America Cash App Revolut
FIS launched its 3rd generation digital banking in 2018
FIS Digital One platform of integrated solutions delivers an omnichannel
– Digital One is an integrated digital banking platform that banking experience for both the customers and employees of the bank
allows community banks to offer a consistent omnichannel
experience
– Includes Digital One Account Open, which allows for an
online account opening experience that takes less than five
minutes, specifically targeting customers that prefer not to
visit a branch
Jack Henry’s mobile offerings are part of the Banno
Digital Banking Suite, including digital account opening
capabilities (JHA OpenAnywhere)
Source: Credit Suisse estimates; Number of ratings per app: Chase (1.72mm), Bank of
24 January 2020 175
America (1.27mm), Cash App (218k), Revolut (7,870)
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
SaaS (hosted) vs. Licensed (on-premise)
“…But generally, if you move from an in-house or on-premise to an
Generally speaking, break-even between SaaS and licensed can be outsourced, there is a multiple of long-term revenue. I'd call it probably
reached at ~3-4 years (i.e., if a bank keeps its system longer than 3x overall of what the revenue profile could look like versus just an
ongoing maintenance stream. But it all depends on where they're at,
3-4 years prior to upgrading to the next license, the math works on a
how much is developed in-house, is it your technology versus -- just
direct basis).
in-source versus outsource, or are they really going a different direction
Legacy FISV’s 85% recurring revenue (Q3 2018 earnings) and taking an old in-house developed capability and moving to an
outsource, which is all incremental there…”
Legacy FIS’s revenue ~80% recurring (2018 Investor Day)
– James Woodall, CFO, FIS (November 2019)
Aspect SaaS Licensed
• Little to none • Upfront perpetual license (with revenue recognition also
Upfront fees
upfront, which can create a degree of lumpiness)
• Monthly or quarterly fees (and revenue recognized
similarly)
Recurring fees • Annual maintenance fees (~20% of total cost)
• No maintenance fees (monthly fees are all
inclusive)
Data storage and • Runs on a private cloud (not AWS, Azure) • Typically runs on-premise, but banks can pay their core provider
processing managed by the core provider (e.g., Fiserv, FIS) for a private cloud
• More likely to be out-of-the-box and less
• Customizable and tends to attract larger banks that make these
customizable, and tends to attract smaller banks
modifications
Customization • Fiserv and Jack Henry have a greater degree of
• FIS has a greater degree of this vs. Fiserv and Jack Henry, due
this vs. FIS, due to smaller bank and credit union
to larger bank skew
skew (i.e., Fiserv has more SaaS mix than FIS)
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 176
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
SaaS (hosted) vs. Licensed (on-premise)
In 2018, ~95% of new core system contracts signed by banks were hosted
Market shifts toward SaaS core deployments have been vs. ~70% for Credit Unions
ongoing for the past decade with room
5%
Hosted deployments generally lead to faster time to 30%
market, reduced capital expenditures, and more frequent
software updates
95%
We expect this trend to benefit the Bank Technology 70%
providers by increasing their ability to cross-sell new
products and reducing revenue volatility from reduced
license sales Banks Credit Unions
Hosted (SaaS) Licensed
US Bank Core Systems deployment types over time US Credit Union Core Systems deployment types over time
35% 30%
52% 50% 47%
71%
65% 70%
48% 50% 53%
29%
2011 2015 2018 2011 2015 2018
Hosted (SaaS) Licensed Hosted (SaaS) Licensed
Source: Aite Group, Credit Suisse 24 January 2020 177
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
Emerging vendors – Can they break through in the US?
After a period of consolidation over the past 20 years, with the big
three vendors now serving 66% of market (counted by number of Finxact, as an example of a Core-as-a-Service model, was formed
banks), we are starting to see new vendors re-emerge. by a former FIS executive and recently received investment
($30mm) from the ABA, Accenture, First Data, and SunTrust
While the next-gen core banking platform providers are worth
monitoring for investors, we believe that a meaningful portion of
bank CEO/CTOs are reluctant to embrace due to (1) lack of
client references (chicken and egg), (2) long-term strategic
decisions that favor providers with balance sheets indicative of
continued investment and longevity, and (3) preference for
minimizing the number of vendors.
We believe that next-gen core providers (e.g., Finxact, MAMBU,
Nymbus, etc.) have the potential to be successful in their own
right, accumulating more bank customers over time; however,
even with a great deal of success, it is unlikely that any
meaningful financial impact would be felt by FIS, Fiserv, and/or
Jack Henry over the foreseeable future.
We would also expect the legacy providers to consider acquiring
next-gen providers (i.e., deliver their technology via vast
distribution networks, reduce risk of market share loss),
consistent with their historical approach.
On the core banking side, we expect them to be competitive for
digital-only De Novo banks (including Neo/Challenger banks) and
with select mid-sized banks.
Source: Finxact, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 178
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
Not a near- to medium-term risk, but developments to monitor
May 2019
ABA Core Platforms Committee meets with Fiserv, FIS, Jack Henry, and Finastra (to discuss three items): (1)
2016
contracts; (2) access to innovation (i.e., FinTech advances & API access to core); and (3) access to data
Incoming CEO of the American Bankers Association (ABA) spends
(getting to a bank’s owned data to better personalize)
first year on the job speaking with members:
October 2019
“…met with roughly 3,900 bank CEOs…one narrative came up
ABA Core Platforms Committee publishes “Principles for Strong Bank-Core Provider Relationships”
again, and again, and again…we’re struggling with our core
relationship – the core is not as nimble, it’s not as agile, we’re not
able to offer the innovative customer experience that we’d like to January 2019 September 2019 October 2019
with the same efficiency or the speed…” Finxact raises $30mm from strategic Chime surpasses 5mm Chime looking to raise new
investors (American Bankers FDIC-insured accounts in funding at a $5b valuation (to be
Association, Accenture, and SunTrust) < 5 years led by existing investor DST)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 2017
Iowa Falls State Bank v.
Jack Henry & Associates, October 2019 As of today
July 2019
Inc. related to access to the Revolut looking to Traditional core
Monzo, a UK
bank’s data in context of a raise $500mm in providers are 0 for 10
challenger bank
new vendor discussion equity and $1b in debt with the top/fastest
(~2-3mm accounts)
for global expansion in growing
launches in the US
partnership with Visa Neo/Challenger
October 2018 banks, i.e., so far not
May 2017 ABA sends letter to “three major core providers” September 2019 showing signs of
Finxact raises initial with an aim toward coming to a solution to what is a July 2019
Revolut announces involvement with the
seed round of $12mm “significant problem” N26, a leading
expanding global potential next
via Live Oak Ventures, European challenger
partnership with Visa, generation of banks
First Data, Woodforest Formation of the ABA Core Platforms Committee bank (~3.5mm
including the US, with (although we note FIS
National Bank, and TNI (of ~20 reps. from banks ranging in size from accounts) launches in
plans to expand won Atom bank in the
$150mm to $25b in assets) invested in improving the US with a 100k UK, a meaningful
headcount from 1.5k
relationships with core providers user waitlist challenger)
to 5k during 2020
Source: American Bankers Association (ABA), WSJ, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 179
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
A selection of emerging bank IT vendors
Company Year Founded Description Expertise Customers Investors
Nicolet National Bank ($3b), General Atlantic, S3 Investors,
Alkami 2009 Provider of online and mobile banking for retail and business customers Ancillary services
Oregon Community CU ($1.7b) Argonaut
Vision to "redefine the digital experience across the financial industry..." 500+
Apiture 2017 customers, API-first mindset (i.e., build everything as an API vs. wrapping old Ancillary services SunTrust, Live Oak Bank Canapi Ventures, First Data
technology in an API layer)
T. Rowe Price, Salesforce
Modern cloud-based core banking system provider built on Salesforce with a TD Bank, KeyBank, Navy
nCino 2012 Ancillary services Ventures, Bessemer Venture
particular strength in lending solutions Federal Credit Union
Partners, etc.
Modern provider of ancillary banking services including card issuance, Andreessen Horowitz, Core
Synapse 2014 Ancillary services Not disclosed
brokerage accounts, and loan origination and servicing products Innovation Capital
ABN AMRO, Barclays, ING,
Backbase 2003 Core overlay service, also offering omnichannel banking and digital solutions Core overlay KeyBank, Lloyds Banking Not disclosed
Group
Treasury Core overlay service, also offering instant digital onboarding for account
2017 Core overlay Not disclosed Not disclosed
Prime opening
Corelation 2009 Core provider focused on serving credit unions Core platform 60+ Credit Unions N/A
First Data (now Fiserv),
Core-as-a-Service banking system provider built on AWS with a curated
Finxact 2016 Core platform Live Oak Bank SunTrust Banks, American
ecosystem of third-party partners
Bankers Association, etc.
Bessemer Venture Partners,
Modern cloud-based core banking system focused on Europe with ABN AMRO, Santander, N26,
Mambu 2011 Core platform Acton Capital,
headquarters in Berlin, Germany OakNorth, TBC Bank, new10
CommerzVentures
Modern cloud-based core banking system provider focused on community
Neocova 2019 Core platform Not disclosed Not disclosed
banks and credit unions
Provider of digital and mobile banking, lending and leasing services, and Core platform and ancillary Core customers: Sallie Mae,
Q2 2004 Public company (QTWO)
cloud-based core banking systems services Qapital, H&R Block
Temenos Switzerland-based provider with expertise in core banking, digital, payments,
Core platform and ancillary HSBC, PayPal Credit, EQ
(limited US 1993 wealth management, and fund administration; international platform, with Public company (TEMN)
services Bank, UBS
presence) limited core banking traction in the US currently
Modern cloud-based core banking system with a particular strength in Payments: NYMBUS
Insight Partners, Home Credit
Nymbus 2015 payments; acquired R.C. Olmstead in 2016 and gained 46 core Credit Union SmartPayments real-time ~46 Credit Unions
Group, Venture Enterprises
clients; also features NYMBUS SmartPayments real-time payments suite payments suite
Thought Machine (core), Allied Payment (community banking payments), Fisoc (loyalty programs sold to banks and credit unions), Treasury Prime (core overlay), Mistral
Additional providers:
Mobile (mobile banking), Hydrogen Platform (platform helping financial institutions speed development and innovation)
Source: Company data, Crunchbase, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 180
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
2019 Bank Director technology survey
Broadly, survey data suggest smaller banks appear to be less Survey data suggest satisfaction with core provider was limited to 21%, while most
satisfied with their core providers, with banks from $500mm to participants agree providers are slow to innovate or upgrade technologies
$1b in assets and banks with <$500mm in assets satisfied 80%
with their provider at a rate of 11% and 19%, respectively,
60%
whereas 43% of banks with >$10b in assets are satisfied with 60% 53%
their core. 43%
40%
At the very least, survey data suggest banks appear willing to 30%
25%
listen to pitches from new providers (~80% agreed they would 19%21%
20% 11%
consider it).
Survey data suggest a rising consensus around a lack of 0%
innovation at the core providers, with infrequent update cycles Slow to provide innovative Additional fees to access our I'm completely satisfied with our
solutions or upgrades bank's data core provider
for software/data solutions (small and large banks agreeing on
this point, ~60% of respondents). >$10b $1b-$10b $500mm - $1b <$500 mm Total
~80% of participants would be willing to consider a new entrant Survey participants were asked about pain points with core providers, and most
for core banking needs respondents feel core providers are not on the cutting edge of innovation
80%
We'd prefer to
60%
stick with the three
60%
established core 49%
providers
40%
21% 40% 35%
30% 29% 29%
21%
20%
We're willing to
consider a 5%
newer entrant 0%
79% Slow to Difficulting Cost Unable or Additional Subpar Our bank's I'm completely Other
provide implementing unwilling to fees to access customer needs aren't satisfied with
innovative new solutions customize our bank's service prioritized our core
solutions or solutions for data provider
upgrades our bank
24 January 2020 181
Source: Bank Director 2019 Technology Survey – Sponsored by CDW (n = 150 bank executives, conducted June-July 2019), Credit Suisse research
29. Bank Tech key drivers and outlook
2019 Bank Director technology survey
Most survey participants noted they are looking to upgrade The majority of survey respondents are looking for improvements in user experience
basic account functions, such as user experience, mobile & (mobile, online, account onboarding), along with adding features & functionality…
online banking applications, and account onboarding, along
100%
with adding more features and functionality. 86% 83%
80% 75%
While larger banks (>$10b) may have the capital and
60%
support to implement these projects via outside providers
and internal IT staff, most banks <$10b likely do not have 40%
the capital or are not willing to spend (i.e., costs to tie
20%
outside providers into existing legacy cores).
0%
Improve the user Improve account Add more Streamline the online Add more apps or Add more apps or Integrate with external
experience on mobile onboarding features/funcitonality lending platform digital products that digital products that platforms, such as
and/or online channels appeal to small appeal to retail Amazon's Alexa
business or customers
commercial customers
…and when asked if they would use a core provider to enhance
Many participants did not even know when their bank tech contracts end (likely due to
digital, most larger banks would opt for outside parties, while
complexity, multitude of contracts) or are locked in for 5+ years
smaller banks are more or less tied into updates with the core
100% Most CEO's of banks with > $10b in assets are In totality - the majority of CEO's
5% 8% 7% either aren't sure when their contracts
18% not sure when their bank tech contracts end
29% 23% 15% end or are locked in past 2024
80% 22%
100%
7% 14%
24% 19%
60% 80% 20%
8% 18%
43% 57% 14%
60% 19%
40% 82% 77%
73% 71% 40% 31%
33%
40%
20%
29% 29% 54%
20% 37%
33% 29%
0% 14%
>$10b $1b-$10b $500mm - <$500 mm Total 0%
$1b >$10b $1b-$10b $500mm - $1b <$500 mm Total
Yes No Unsure In 2021, 2022, or 2023 2024 or beyond Unsure In 2019 or 2020
Source: Bank Director 2019 Technology Survey – Sponsored by CDW (n = 150 bank executives, conducted June-July 2019), Credit Suisse 24 January 2020 182
research. Rounding differences amount to <1%
30. Modern Card Issuance Platforms
Enabling any platform, brand, or FinTech to issue cards
Card issuance is no longer just for traditional banks (e.g., Chase, Bank of America, Capital One) and large merchant co-brands (e.g.,
Delta Airlines, Marriott , Costco).
Platforms and service providers (“modern card issuance” technology companies such as Marqeta, Stripe Issuing, i2c, Green Dot, Galileo
Financial Technologies, etc.) are now enabling any company or brand to issue cards across a wide range of use cases, including:
– Employers (to employees for smart expense control) – Core payments & P2P platforms (e.g., Square, PayPal, Venmo)
– On-demand platforms (for couriers) – Additional FinTech issuers (e.g., Transferwise, Betterment, etc.)
– Challenger banks (“Neo banks”) – Brands (for customers, i.e., loyalty, engagement)
To date, modern issuer processing platforms like Marqeta have been more focused on new channels of card issuance (FinTechs, brands,
etc.) vs. traditional banks, although we believe that both could begin to win portions of larger traditional issuer portfolios (which would be
meaningful business and a positive for Marqeta and/or i2c, but likely di minimis for the likes of TSYS, FIS, and FISV.
Technology platforms and FinTechs are partnering with licensed card-issuing banks (typically smaller, Durbin-exempt) to issue
cards (typically pre-paid debit cards) for employees, contracts, and customers
Source: Company reports, CB Insights, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 183
30. Modern Card Issuance Platforms
The four roles (and key players) in modern card issuance
Green Dot is the only player that has offerings across all four capabilities and expands beyond cards (BaaS).
Often times, the issuer processor and program manager are the same (e.g., Marqeta handles both).
Additional players are the networks (Visa, Mastercard) and, at times, a distribution partner (e.g., Blackhawk).
Non-bank Issuing Issuer Program
issuer Bank Processor Manager
• Owns the cardholder relationship • Holds an actual bank license • Routing of card transactions for • Oversees P&L of program, along
(e.g., employee, contractor, approval (including advanced rules with fraud and compliance
consumer) • Final approval on account creation for case-specific approvals)
(i.e., risk tolerance on NSF, fraud) • Maintains relationship with issuing
• Marketing and/or distribution of the • Account number & card generation bank and card networks (V/MA)
cards (sometimes through a • Typically a more minimal role, but
distribution partner) cobrand issuers (e.g., SYF, ADS) • Offer APIs to developers • Earns the largest portion of
can be more active in marketing interchange on smaller programs
Examples: Examples: Examples: Examples:
• DoorDash • Green Dot Bank • Marqeta • Marqeta
• PayPal & Venmo • Axos Bank • Stripe Issuing • Stripe Issuing
• Uber • Sutton Bank • i2c • Green Dot
• Square • Cross River Bank • Green Dot • Galileo
• Green Dot • Lincoln Savings Bank • Galileo • Fiserv, FIS, & TSYS
• Walmart • MetaBank • InComm • NetSpend (GPN/TSYS-owned)
• Hyundai • Evolve Bank & Trust • CoreCard • I2c
• Apple • The Bancorp Bank • Large-caps FISV, FIS, GPN/TSS • BREX
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 184
30. Modern Card Issuance Platforms
“Smart” controls on card transaction approvals
An increasing use case provided by modern card platforms is the placement of smart controls on transaction approvals. Generally speaking,
controls on cards can be placed at three difference levels:
1. At the network level – Visa and/or Mastercard are able to stop a transaction before it reaches the issuer for an approval decision (e.g.,
“no international transactions”).
2. At the issuer (issuer processor) level – Certain Merchant Category Codes (MCC) can be turned on and off or purchase caps can be
placed over a time period (e.g., a dollar amount that can be spent at a certain location over the course of a week). Fuel cards are another
example (e.g., may enable only fuel, supplies, and vehicle maintenance-related MCCs). All issuer processors can restrict MCCs, although
Marqeta APIs allow co-brand partners to control these by making real-time and/or grouped changes to restrictions.
3. An additional layer of control – Just-in-Time (JIT) funding – Auto-funding of card-linked accounts in real time, only after the
transaction is approved through the custom evaluation process (e.g., approval rules based on the specific order, time, and merchant).
Marqeta JIT example: DoorDash uses JIT funding by Marqeta to help reduce fraud related to delivery courier order pick-up, allowing
DoorDash to ensure couriers are paying for the exact orders (and only exact orders) at the right time and at the right merchant (e.g.,
transaction approvals are specific to the order that came through the DoorDash platform)
Source: Marqeta, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 185
30. Modern Card Issuance Platforms
Economics of pre-paid debit (majority of modern card issuance)
The vast majority of modern card issuance platforms are issuing
2018 purchase
prepaid debit cards, with the economics on prepaid debit interchange Rank Pre-paid debit issuer
volume
generally ~20-40bps higher than on traditional debit.
1 The Bancorp Bank $41.9b
Bank partners used by FinTechs are typically exempt from Durbin debit 2 MetaBank $37.7b
interchange caps (unregulated) – e.g., The Bancorp, MetaBank, Green
3 Green Dot Bank $26.0b
Dot Bank, Sutton Bank, Axos Bank, etc.
4 Comerica Bank $19.6b
Economics are spread across all four parties in the stack (non-bank 5 JPMorgan Chase $18.7b
issuer and/or co-brand partner, bank issuer, issuer processor, and 6 Axos Bank $9.7b
program manager), with the program manager generally receiving the
7 Bank of America $8.5b
largest portion, although depending on volumes (tier-based contracts),
8 MB Financial $5.5b
the non-bank issuer may garner the majority of the economics.
9 US Bank $5.4b
Example: Square Cash Card receives ~65% (CS est.) of the prepaid 10 UMB Bank $5.0b
debit interchange, while its bank partner (Sutton Bank) and issuer
11 Sunrise Banks $4.6b
processor & program manager (Marqeta) share the remainder.
12 Sutton Bank $3.2b
Visa US Interchange Exempt debit Exempt prepaid 13 Webster Bank (incl. HAS) $2.4b
Regulated debit
(US Retail category) (unregulated) (unregulated) 14 Comdata $1.7b
15 PNC Bank $1.4b
Illustrative transaction size $39 $38 $38 16 KeyBank $1.3b
17 Wells Fargo $1.0b
+ Cents per transaction $0.21 $0.15 $0.15
18 Metro. Comm'l Bank $0.7b
x Bps of volume 0.05% 0.80% 1.15%
19 BB&T $0.6b
= Total interchange ($) $0.23 $0.45 $0.59
20 Fifth Third Bank $0.5b
Total interchange (%) 0.59% 1.19% 1.54%
Source: Company reports, Visa USA Interchange Reimbursement Fees, Board of Governors FRB, The Nilson Report, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 186
30. Modern card issuance platforms
Marqeta 2019 update and highlights
Platform would now rank as a top 25 issuer of debit cards in the US (if Marqeta serves a range of issuers, with modern card issuance extending
consolidated as a single card issuer) beyond the traditional bank issuers of the past (i.e., non-bank issuers)
Issued 140 millionth card & saw revenue double for the 4th consecutive year
New offerings launched in 2019
– Marqeta Reserve Financing - financing option that allows for seamless funding
of reserve accounts
– Push-to-Card – allows funds to be loaded on to virtual cards or tokenized into a
digital wallet (used in lending applications and beyond)
– One Sandbox Project – developer interface enhancement
Additional highlights disclosed:
– Added to premier customer list (naming Expensify, Lydia, YAPEAL, Twisto,
Ramp Financial, ConnexPay, and Capital on Tap as examples of wins)
– Extended Visa partnership to 10 Asia-Pacific markets (vs. most issuers active
in three countries), as part of early global expansion efforts
– Headcount ~400 (+175 YoY), with offices in Oakland and London
– Valuation increased (~4x) to ~$2b, after closing a $260mm Series E Marqeta sees the global card issuance market reaching ~$80tr in volumes by
2030, increasing ~$30tr+ over the decade (per to Edgar, Dunn & Company)
“…We are in the midst of a transformation in card issuing around the globe,” said Jason
$100tr
Gardner, founder and CEO of Marqeta. “When today’s innovators are in need of modern ~$80tr
$80tr
payment solutions, they aren’t turning to banks as their primary issuers anymore and
want a platform built for their needs. We’ve been proud to power this transformation as $60tr ~$45-50tr
the most advanced card-issuing platform built in over two decades. It has been exciting $40tr
to see our customers embrace these new possibilities and build extraordinary products $20tr
and services that have helped define markets in their own right..”
$0tr
– Jason Gardner, Founder and CEO, Marqeta (May 2019) Today 2030
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 187
30. Modern card issuance platforms
Cards allow for a “recycling” of volumes (get paid 2x on the same business)
Traditional fund access was done via ACH bank Square Card issuance to sellers allows instant access to seller
transfers, which are not only slow but come with a small balances (sales made that day) at no charge, yet Square still
earns commercial debit interchange when card is used…
cost (vs. card issuance, which is immediate and is a
revenue generator).
Example: Square Card for sellers
– Square gets paid when a consumer makes a purchase at a
seller’s POS or website (~3% gross), and then Square gets
paid again (~2% unregulated debit interchange) when the
seller accesses the funds (spends) via card.
– Fees earned by Square, PayPal, and Venmo (interchange
share with partner bank and program manager) are roughly …similarly, Cash Card issuance to consumers provides instant
similar to the “Instant Transfer” and “Instant Deposit” fees access to Cash App balances at no charge, and Square earns
prepaid debit interchange when the card is used
earned today (which we consider to be at risk longer term
due to increased usage of The Clearing House’s RTP
network and eventually FedNow, although not a near-term
concern).
Square is an example of a platform that has
successfully monetized cards both from a consumer
(Cash Card associated with Cash App balances) and
merchant perspective (Square Card associated with
seller account balances).
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 188
30. Modern card issuance platforms
“Recycling” examples in PayPal, Square, Stripe, Adyen, etc.
While PayPal (both for core PayPal and Venmo), Square, and Stripe all offer forms of “instant transfer” to bank
accounts or debit cards (i.e., Visa Direct or Mastercard Send), we believe card issuance could prove to be the
better way to address supplier liquidity needs.
It also increases seller stickiness via expansion into expense management (a payments platform’s involvement
was traditionally more limited to the revenue side of the business).
Stripe Issuing was launched in July 2018, followed by Stripe Corporate Card in September 2019.
Adyen announced a card-issuing program in November 2019, highlighting the access to faster funds for its
merchant base (e.g., for marketplaces to provide to their sellers).
PayPal & Square business debit cards earn unregulated debit interchange and provide instant access to funds for sellers, while
Stripe Issuing offers cards for employees (dynamic expense controls), contractors (on-demand platforms), and customers, along
with a formal Corporate Card program
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 189
Regulation & Litigation
31. Two-Factor Authentication Implications
Customer experience and fraud prevention
What is Strong Customer Authentication (SCA)?
SCA requirements: 2 of 3 factors below
– Two-factor identity authentication is a requirement for online
purchases in Europe (part of PSD2 regulation).
– Card-issuing banks will be required to decline non-SCA compliant
transactions.
– SCA deadline was delayed to Dec. 31, 2020 (from Sep. 2019).
Why is SCA important? SCA poses a significant challenge to
eCommerce merchants by adding friction to online shopping.
– Retailers in India experienced a 25% drop in online checkout
conversion over night from two-factor requirements in 2014.
– 451 Research estimates a €57 billion loss of eCommerce sales in
SCA exemptions
the first year after SCA is enforced.
• Low-value transactions (< €30); SCA required after 5 transactions
Mastercard estimates SCA will triple the number of online regardless of size or after €100 in cumulative spend
transactions requiring two-factor authentication from 19% to 57%
• Trust websites – first use required SCA
60%
50% 57%
3x increase • Recurring payments
40%
30% • Contactless payments
20%
19% • Corporate payments
10%
0% • Merchants are liable for fraud on exempt transactions that do not go
Pre-SCA Post-SCA through SCA
Source: Mastercard, Stripe, 451 Research, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 191
31. Two Factor Authentication Implications
3-D Secure 2.0 – Industry SCA Solution
What is 3-D Secure (3DS)? Key differences between 3DS 1.0 and 3DS 2.0
– 3DS is an authentication protocol that enables issuing banks to
verify the identity of cardholders during a CNP transaction 3-D Secure 1.0 3-D Secure 2.0
– 3DS is the primary framework for addressing PSD2’s SCA Static passwords
Sophisticated authenticators
(e.g., biometrics, one-time passwords)
– Utilizing 3DS transfers fraud liability from merchant to issuer
Browser dependent Mobile enabled
– 3DS specifications are governed by EMVCo
Key benefits of 3DS 2.0? Limited dataset (supports 15 data Enriched dataset (supports 150 data
elements) elements, 10x the number of 3DS 1.0)
– Lower checkout friction (Visa claims a 70% improvement in
cart abandonment rates) Enrollment required No enrollment required
– Increased transaction approval rates (+5% lift in approval rates)
Merchant bound by issuer decision Merchant opt-out option
– Reduced fraud rates
3DS 2.0 is big improvement but not a panacea for SCA SCA complexity favors tech-oriented merchant acquirers
– Optimizing for SCA exemptions is complex
Adyen
– Not all issuers will be able to support 3DS 2.0 by the SCA
First to market its SCA-compliant 3DS 2.0 Solution to help
deadline merchants boost conversion rates and security
“…SCA will make or break Internet businesses. The urgency to get FIS (Worldpay)
ready for it cannot be overstated…” Launched Exemption Engine for SCA in June 2019 to work with
its 3DS 2.0 solution “3DS Flex”
- Guillaume Princen, Head of Continental Europe, Stripe (June 2019)
Stripe
Launched 4 types of SCA-compliant merchant products in 2019 and
acquired Touchtech to help banks prepare for SCA
Source: Mastercard, Visa, Stripe, 451 Research, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 192
32. Trends in Global Payments Regulation
Commonalities across Payments regulations worldwide
1. Centered around stimulating competition in financial services via Open Banking regulatory initiatives (practically every
major developed economy has such regulations aside from the US)
2. Reducing card payment fees borne by merchants and consumers (indirectly) via Interchange caps
Australia – Caps on debit and credit interchange
Europe & UK – Caps on debit and credit interchange (IFR)
US – Caps on debit interchange for banks with over $10b in assets
North America Europe Asia-Pacific
Ongoing US Merchant Interchange Fee Interchange reduction on cross-border transactions 2017 Interchange caps on credit and
Antitrust Litigation from consumers outside the EU spending inside the EU Australia debit
Anti-steering case with American Open Banking mandated in July 2019
Express deemed legal by US supreme PSD2 regulation (2018-2020); Open Banking APIs &
USA
Court (2018) SCA mandated Open Banking support but not mandated
EMV Liability shift (2015)
Singapore Published API playbook for financial
Interchange caps on debit transactions GDPR (2018); EU consumer data protections industry in 2016
(Durbin, 2011)
RBI expected to release Open Banking
Launched publication consultation on Interchange Fee Regulation (2015 and 2016), India
Canada guidelines in 2020
Open Banking merits (2019) Interchange caps on credit and debit, Separation of
Scheme and Processing, Co-badging, Anti-steering & Hong Open Banking mandated in four phases
Mexico FinTech law effective (2018) Honor all cards relaxation, Un-blending of MDR Kong from 2019 to 2020
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 193
33. European Payments Regulation
PSD2 in Europe: Evolution, not revolution
The Second Payment Services Directive’s (PSD2) regulatory objective
PSD2 Timeline – Key Dates
is to stimulate competition in financial services, reduce fraud, and
increase consumer protection in the European Economic Area, with November 2015 Final approval of PSD2 by European Council
an emphasis on two key aspects:
January 2018 PSD2 becomes national law
Open API mandates on European banks
Regulatory technical standards (RTS) on open banking
– Requires European banks to grant qualified third parties February 2018 APIs and SCA published, giving European banks and
merchants 18 months to implement
automated access to customer accounts (retail and corporate) via
open APIs RTS mandated to start (for open banking API
September 2019 requirements, not SCA). In June 2019, the EBA allowed
– Empowers new platform-oriented business models and pulls them for time extensions on an exceptional basis
into regulatory scope: (1) Account information service providers
December 2020 RTS enforced for SCA
(AISPs) can provide a consolidated view across a consumer’s
financial accounts; and (2) Payment initiation service providers
(PISPS) can initiate transactions payments directly from a bank Open Banking brings the platform model into financial services
account (e.g., PayPal) without relying on screen scraping
Enhance customer security
– Requires strong customer authentication (SCA), two-factor
authentication when a consumer initiates an online payment or
accesses bank account information online; detailed in Theme 32
– Reduces consumers’ liability for unauthorized payments
– Prohibits surcharging
Source: Credit Suisse research, EY 24 January 2020 194
33. European Payments Regulation
Open Banking Perceptions from European Banking Executives
Top Open Banking Challenges & Priorities from Tink’s Survey
22% of European Banking Executives view regulations as the biggest of European Banking Executives
threat to their business
17% view BigTech as the single biggest threat (Google, Amazon, Apple), Top 3 Challenges
Modernize IT systems, comply with EU regulations, and finding the right talent
given established customer relationships, large user bases, brand
recognition, and technical talent
Top 3 Opportunities
64% believe the financial services industry will significantly evolve as a Develop better digital services, increase customer personalization, and reduce
result of open banking costs of customer acquisition
Biggest Threats to Incumbents from Open Banking (European Banking Executives)
45%
39% Single biggest threat Overall threat
40%
35% 35%
35% 32%
29%
30%
25% 22% 22%
20% 17%
15% 15%
15% 11%
9% 10%
10%
5% 4%
5%
0%
Regulations FinTechs Big Tech Payment Service Challenger Banks Credit Card Other Incumbent I don't think there is
Providers Companies Banks a threat
Source: Credit Suisse research, Tink Report “Inside the minds of European Bankers” 24 January 2020 195
33. European Payments Regulation
Europe Interchange Fee Regulation (IFR)
Regulatory objective: Reduce the cost of card payments and increase
competition
Applies to all card-based payment transactions in the European Union as of
June 2016 (aside from Interchange caps, which became effective in
December 2015)
European Commission
presentation on IFR regulation
IFR Articles Description Objective & Potential Impact
Interchange Caps • Cap domestic interchange rates to 0.30% and 0.20% for credit and debit • Lower acceptance cost of card payments and stimulate merchant acceptance
(articles 3 & 4) card transactions, respectively; also applies to intra-Europe cross-border of card payments
• Increase competition in the processing market to reduce prices
Separation of • Card networks must separate their processing and scheme operations
• Prevents card schemes from favoring their own processing by enabling
Processing & (accounting, organization and decision-making)
choice for banks and retailers
Scheme (article 7) • Bans price bundling for processing and scheme fees
• Facilitated Mastercard and Visa’s processing share gains in Europe
Co-badging • Restricts card networks from charging scheme fees for transactions made • Improves competition in cross-border payments among card schemes
(article 8) on co-badged cards that were not processed on the scheme’s network
• No longer required to accept all card types issued by a particular scheme
Honor all cards (consumer prepaid, debit, and credit)
• Allows merchants to decide if they want to accept various card types
relaxation & Anti- • If a merchant wishes to accept one type of consumer card across the 3
(consumer prepaid, debit, and credit)
steering categories, it must still accept all (e.g., if you accept 1 type of Visa credit,
(articles 10 & 11) you must accept all Visa credit cards)
• Prohibits card schemes banning merchants from steering consumers
Unblending • Acquirers required to separately list interchange fees, scheme fees, and
• Improves transparency on card transaction fees paid by merchants
(article 9) the acquirer mark-up
Source: ECB, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 196
33. European Payments Regulation
Cross-Border Europe Interchange Fee Regulation
Regulatory objective: Reduce the cost of cross-border card payments in the European Economic Area (EEA)
Each of the three regulations listed below brought more transactions occurring within the EEA into scope
Date Description Example of Cards/Transactions in Scope
• Applies to all domestic and cross-border transactions for cards issued
• Interchange Fee Regulation (IFR): Caps domestic interchange rates to
and used in Europe
December 2015 0.30% and 0.20% for credit and debit cards issued and used in Europe,
• For example, a French consumer making card purchases in France
respectively; also applies to intra-EEA cross-border
• And a French consumer making card purchases in Germany
• Regulates/reduces interchange on cards used in Europe but issued
elsewhere (tourists visiting Europe), by 40% on average • For example, a US tourist making an in-store card purchase in
~October 2019
• For in-store transactions (card present), caps interchange rates to 0.30% Belgium
(within 6 months
and 0.20% for credit and debit cards, respectively • And a US consumer making a card purchase at an eCommerce
of April 2019)
• For online transactions (card not present), caps interchange rates to merchant in Belgium while in the US
1.50% and 1.15% for credit and debit cards, respectively
• Regulates/reduces interchange on cross-border card payments in euro, in
non-Eurozone Member states (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark,
Hungary, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Poland, Romania, Sweden) to
• For example, a Polish consumer making card purchases in France
December 2019 be the same as domestic payments (December 2015 IFR caps listed
above)
• These transactions account for ~80% of all cross-border payments from
non-Euro area member states
Source: European Commission, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 197
34. US vs. International FinTech regulations and market dynamics
A big opportunity in the US with big hurdles
Regulations Licensing Banking Market Dynamics
“Market-driven” approach in the US vs. US FinTech licensing is fragmented across US banking market is more consolidated at
Innovation-oriented regulations abroad 50 states and 10+ federal agencies the top and fragmented at the bottom
Un-mandated consumer financial data rights vs. In the US, FinTechs must get money transmitter Top 4 big banks spend ~$40bn/year on IT, equal
mandated consumer financial data rights abroad to total Global VC Fintech funding (in 2018, ~>2x
licenses in 50 states with varying requirements in other years)
(mandated Open APIs) and interpretations of the same law, vs.
− Dodd-Frank mandates direct consumer access to significantly more fluid processes abroad Top 4 US Banks have 63% of assets, the next
11k have the remaining 37%
data but not specifically data aggregators, − E.g., 50 licenses required for 1 country vs. 1
meaning technically banks aren’t required to allow license for 31countries in Europe… Europe has ~50% less banks (~6k) yet ~50%
companies like Plaid to connect (e.g., PNC more people (i.e., ~12 banks per million citizens
turning off Venmo and telling customers to use vs. the US with ~34 banks per million citizens)
Zelle in December 2019) CSBS’ Vision 2020 initiative is working to
harmonize/streamline the multistate licensing
Interchange unregulated (ex. Debit for big banks) process: Bank technology provider market for the majority
− Interchange rate decisions left up to the courts in − Currently creating a model money services of banks is led by Fiserv, FIS, Jack Henry,
the US vs. addressed by regulators abroad business (MSB) law given each State defines and Finastra, and others
interprets legal terms differently (26 states on
− Unregulated Debit interchange enables US
board to-date)
FinTechs to monetize at materially higher rates
than FinTechs in regions where interchange is − This reduced application times by two-thirds in
regulated (e.g., Europe debit interchange is 2019
20bps vs. 150-190bps + $0.10 in the US), “Although it boasts one of the world's largest
US FinTechs subject to overlapping authority FinTech ecosystems, the US lags behind other
reducing their need to monetize via new products
and jurisdiction from 10+ federal agencies, 50 major countries in providing a cohesive and
state regulators vs. 2 in other countries (e.g., consistent regulatory framework for FinTechs.”
“…the PNC-Venmo spat shows how much we
UK, Australia) - White & Case
need to adopt open banking that lets customers − Insightful testimony to the Senate discussing this
own their own data.” here
- Karen Mills, Senior Fellow at Harvard Business
School
Source: 2018 US Treasury Report: “A Financial System That Creates Economic Opportunities”, CSBS, Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 198
34. US vs. International FinTech regulations & market dynamics
Fragmented US Banking Market
~6,000 financial institutions in Europe compared to ~11,000 in the US
The US market is significantly more concentrated at the top and fragmented at the bottom
This is evidenced by the scale and resources of top 4 big banks with annual IT spend of ~$40bn, equal to
total Global VC Fintech funding in 2018 and ~>2x 2015-2017
IT Spend of Top 4 US Banks vs. Global Fintech Funding Share of Total Assets by 5 largest Banks
$45b 80% 11,025 12,000
$41b
$38b
Share of Total Assets by 5 Largest
$40b $36b 70% 70%
$34b 10,000
Number of Financial Institutions
$35b $32b
60%
$30b
8,000
50%
$25b 47%
$20b $19b
Banks
$20b $17b 40% 6,000
37%
$15b 30% 30%
4,000
$10b
20%
$5b 1,632 2,000
10%
$0b 370 422
2015 2016 2017 2018 0% 0
Top 4 US Banks Global Fintech VC Funding Germany UK France US
Source: Credit Suisse research. CB Insights, CSBS, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service 24 January 2020 199
34. US vs. International FinTech regulations & market dynamics
Fragmented US Banking Market
Source: CSBS (only shows US banks, excludes credit unions), Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 200
34. US vs. International FinTech regulations & market dynamics
Overview of US Payments Regulations
Regulation Date Description
• Case of all US merchants against Visa, Mastercard, and US banks, with the
US Interchange
Ongoing since plaintiffs contending the defendants violated antitrust laws and caused merchants
Regulation
2005 to pay excessive fees for accepting credit and debit
(MDL 1720)
• Detailed overview on the following page
• Supreme court ruled AMEX’s anti-steering practices that ban merchants from
Anti-Steering June 2018 “steering” consumers to use alternative cards that have lower fees are legal and do
not violate antitrust laws
• Improved consumer protections for prepaid cards from fraud and unauthorized
charges
Prepaid Accounts April 2019
• Increased transparency on prepaid account fees and provide free ways to access
account information
• Capped debit interchange at $0.21 + 0.05% for banks with >$10bn in assets
Dodd-Frank
October 2011 • Issuers must enable at least 2 unaffiliated card networks on each debit card and
(Durbin Act)
allow the merchant to select to lowest-cost option
Source: Credit Suisse research
24 January 2020 201
34. US vs. International FinTech regulations & market dynamics
US Merchant Interchange Case
Timeline MDL 1720: Payment Card Merchant Discount and Interchange Fee Antitrust Litigation
Merchants brought suit against Visa, Mastercard, and their card-issuing banks for:
• Default interchange fees on every transaction
2005
• Honor all cards, requiring merchants to accept all cards regardless of the differences in interchange fees
• Rules banning surcharging
$7.25B settlement approved
2012 • Visa, Mastercard, and the banks agreed to pay a $7.25Bn settlement and allowed merchants to surcharge
• In return, merchants (current and all future merchants) forfeit right to sue banks and card networks on these topics
case re-opened, settlement overturned
• 2012 settlement overturned in summer 2016 because the future merchant class was “inadequately represented” in
the settlement negotiations (given they were represented by the same counsel posing a conflict of interest)
• 2 classes of plaintiffs: comprising all the merchants in the US that accept Visa and/or Mastercard
2016-Present
1. Current merchants (monetary relief class) who accepted Visa/Mastercard from January 1, 2014, through
January 25, 2019; AKA monetary relief class, receiving a portion of the $6.24bn settlement amount; have
option to “opt-out” of settlement and individually sue the card networks and bank
2. Rules relief (injunctive relief class) negotiations are ongoing
• January 2019: Preliminary approval of $6.24bn settlement for the current merchant class
Recent
• December 17, 2019: Court granted final approval of a $5.5settlement
Developments &
• The most important aspect of the case relates to any potential rule changes to the card networks business
Next Steps
practices with Rules Relief class, with no major rule changes likely to occur in our view
Source: Credit Suisse research, PACER. 24 January 2020 202
35. Industrial Loan Company (ILC) bank licenses for US FinTechs
What are they and why are FinTechs applying?
Can make loans and offer FDIC-insured deposits
Parent company is not subject to Federal Reserve oversight
Concentrated in 7 states, Utah contains ~60% of all ILCs (remaining ~40% in CA, CO, HI, IN, MN, and NV)
WEX Bank is one of the 25 current ILCs; Square has an application pending; no applications approved since 2006
Square’s motivation? (1) speed (removing 3rd party), (2) economics (no revenue share), (3) low-cost funds, and (4) accept deposits
OCC FinTech charter – proposed in 2015 as an alternative option; US District Court for the Southern District of NY ruled in October 2019
that the OCC does not have legal power to grant such a charter to non-banks ineligible for federal deposit insurance (currently in review)
Item Industrial Banks Commercial Banks
Make loans? • Yes • Yes
FDIC-insured deposits? • Yes, but not demand deposits if assets are > $100mm • Yes, including demand deposits
Interest on deposits? • Yes • Yes
• Yes, defined as a bank by BHCA
• No, not a bank (as defined by the BHCA)
• Parent company limited to banking and/or financial services
• The bank itself is subject to federal (FDIC) & state banking
Regulation of parent • Cannot mix commerce and banking
regulators (e.g., Utah Department of Financial Institutions),
company? • Regulated by Federal Reserve and State regulators
but the parent company is not
• License in one state allows for credit extension nationwide • National banks regulated by the OCC, while US State banks
(non-member banks) are regulated by the FDIC
• Low-cost source of funds (discount window & deposits)
• Can become a member of Visa & Mastercard
• Two separate applications (Utah and FDIC), but state will
Additional • ~4.7k commercial banks in the US (vs. 12k in 1990)
generally accept the FDIC application
• Utah DFI and FDIC generally review in close coordination
• 25 current ILC in the US
Source: Utah Center for Financial Services (University of Utah), James Bart (Lowder Eminent Scholar in Finance, Auburn University), 24 January 2020 203
Pepper Hamilton LLP, FDIC, Credit Suisse estimates
Threats to Monitor for the Existing Ecosystem
36. Amazon’s building blocks in Payments & FinTech
All of the pieces are there, and the rationale is sound
Rationale for Amazon in Payments & FinTech Amazon Pay disclosures understate the true customer base
– Amazon “flywheel” benefits to both sides of Amazon’s network
400 Amazon customers become
(consumers, merchants), allowing Amazon to enter adjacent Amazon Pay users simply by using
~360mm
businesses without having to be directly profitable (e.g., 350
their Amazon credentials on a 3rd
Fulfillment by Amazon [FBA] not profitable on a direct basis, but 300 party site (i.e., no separate 277 mm
registration process)
adds product selection, an indirect, but meaningful benefit) 250
– Large addressable markets (digital payments), including portions 200
ripe for disruption and/or new TAM creation (SMB lending) 150 ~110 mm
– Monetizing existing assets in terms of users (~350mm), data 100
~50 mm
33 mm 40 mm
(merchant sales history), trust (19% of cart abandonments due to 50
lack of trust), and capabilities – i.e., payments honed internally 0
ahead of extending to 3rd parties (the Marketplace, AWS, Amazon Pay Amazon Pay Venmo Amazon PayPal Amazon
(Feb. 2017) (CS est.) active users Prime active users active users
Logistics playbook) subscribers
– Potential for reduced payments acceptance costs
Amazon 3rd party sellers contribute more than half of units sold
60%
Consumer-side (~350mm buyers with cards in Amazon wallets) ~53% of Amazon units are sold by its
– Increased spending (credit extension, rewards & incentives) 50% ~2-3mm 3rd party sellers (merchants)
– Extends customer base into lesser-penetrated demographics 40%
(e.g., Amazon Credit Builder secured credit card)
30%
20%
Merchant-side (~2-3mm 3rd party sellers on Amazon Marketplace)
10%
– Lending specifically for inventories to be placed on Amazon.com
– Amazon Pay “button” on brand.com sites expands merchant 0%
relationships (increase stickiness)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research *Amazon is covered by CS analyst Stephen Ju. 24 January 2020 205
36. Amazon’s building blocks in Payments & FinTech
Building a consumer ecosystem in-house and via partnerships…
Amazon Consumer Payments &
Description Partner Pricing and/or Incentives
FinTech offerings
Amazon Pay allows Amazon customer to checkout at 3rd party websites using their Amazon credentials, None 2.9% + $0.30 web &
accessing the payments methods already stored with Amazon, address & shipping preferences, etc. The trust of (although Worldpay is an mobile; 4% on transactions
the Amazon brand is a key aspect of the offering, along with the customer-base that Amazon brings to bear. acquiring partner for done over Alexa; Cross-
Worldpay as an acquiring partner reduces the integration work required by merchants to accept Amazon Pay. merchant distribution) border an additional 1% fee
Amazon Prime Rewards Signature Visa Card is an open-loop card for Amazon Prime members only, with No annual fees, no foreign
5% back at Amazon and Whole Foods, 2% back at restaurants, gas stations, and drugstores, and 1% back on Chase Bank transaction fees; $50
all other purchases. There is also a non-Prime version of this card (Amazon Rewards Visa Signature Card, which (J.P. Morgan Chase) Amazon Gift card sign-up
features 3% cash back at Amazon.com. bonus; ~16-24% APR
Amazon.com Store Card is a closed-loop card for Amazon customers, although Prime members earn 5% No annual fees; $60 Amazon
back. Provides no interest financing offers for 6, 12, and 24 months for purchases of above thresholds ($149, Gift card sign-up bonus;
Synchrony Bank
$599) and/or select items. Also, EqualPay allows for equal split of payments over time at 0% APR. There is APR is 28% if not paid off
also an Amazon Prime version of this card which earns 5% back. within agreed monthly plan
No annual fee; Minimum
Amazon.com Store Card Credit Builder and Amazon Prime Store Card Credit Builder are secured card
deposit of $100 (max of
versions of the traditional store cards above (closed-loop cards). Customers make a deposit that becomes their
Synchrony Bank $1,000); $10 Amazon Gift
credit limit, and allows for building or rebuilding credit. Provides access to the under-banked. A more recent
card sign-up bonus; Non-
offering, launched June 2019.
prime version has no rewards
None (although the 2% bonus for using these
Amazon Reload and Amazon Prime Reload allow customers to earn a 2% bonus if they agree to provide both
balance technically sits in lower cost funding methods
a debit card and checking account & routing number. Amazon sometimes routes the reloads through checking
a gift card, provided by (debit, checking account) and
accounts instead of debit cards. Reloads occur when the balance drops below a set amount.
ACI Gift Cards) reloading in bulk
Numerous retail
Amazon Cash allows customers to add cash to an Amazon account at a physical retailer (e.g., convenience
partnerships (7-Eleven, No fees
store, pharmacy) location. Allows Amazon to expand into an under-banked demographic.
CVS, Rite Aid, etc.)
Amazon Allowance is a prepaid, reloadable, closed-loop card offering. Can add funds one-time or routinely ACI Gift Cards issues the
No fees
(e.g., weekly as an allowance). gift cards
London General Insurance
Amazon Protect and other insurance offerings are insurance products for Amazon purchases (i.e., added By product and purchase
Company Limited for UK;
coverage above and beyond those offered by the manufacturer). Can cover accident and theft as well. price
Asurion for US
Source: Company website 24 January 2020 206
36. Amazon’s building blocks in Payments & FinTech
…and beginning to bolster the Business side as well
Amazon Business Payments &
Description Partner Pricing
FinTech offerings
Amazon Business American Express Card and Amazon Prime Business American Express Card are open-
loop cards for non-Prime and Prime member business accounts. Standard Business card (non-Prime) features
No annual fee; $100-$125
3% back or 60 day terms, while the Business Prime card has 5% back or 90 day terms (on US purchases at
American Express Amazon Gift card sign-up
Amazon Business, AWS, Amazon.com and Whole Foods ). Also, both cards get 2% back at restaurants, gas
bonus for; ~16-24% APR
stations, and wireless phone service, along with 1% back on other purchases. This is a more recent offering,
having been launched by Amazon and American Express in October 2018.
Amazon Lending is an invitation only program that offers $1k-$75k loans for sellers to purchase inventory for
use on Amazon's marketplace. Amazon has data that others (banks) don’t, including real-time sales data (and Bank of America added
growth), customer reviews, profitability metrics, etc. Amazon has the ability to be "paid back first" via topline as a partner in early 2018
Range from 6-16%, but
earned by sellers on Amazon (similar to Square Capital). Amazon also can provide fast decisions (minutes), in part (and the Amazon 2015
depends on the seller-specific
due to the invite only nature of the program pre-screening applicants. Further, these smaller business loans are shareholder letter
offer made by Amazon
often not profitable for traditional banks, which prefer to focus on larger dollar amounts. Terms on the loans tend referenced bank
to be 12 months or less (i.e., short term). In January 2018, Amazon disclosed that "Amazon Lending surpassed partnerships ahead)
$3 billion lent to small businesses on Amazon since the program started in 2011."
Amazon.com Revolving Corporate Credit Line and Amazon.com Corporate Pay-In-Full Credit Line
offerings are made available to business accounts that want more flexible payment terms (i.e., pay-in-full or
make minimum monthly payments only). Credit line can only be used at Amazon.com. Allows businesses to
Synchrony Bank No annual fee; APR 12.99%
authorize multiple buyers/employees through Amazon Business US. The Pay-in-Full Corporate credit line offers
55 day payment terms (no interest, no fees) and is marketed more toward larger businesses (e.g., libraries,
schools, government organizations).
Source: Company website, Fundera, PYMNTS.com, Credit Suisse 24 January 2020 207
36. Amazon’s building blocks in Payments & FinTech
Could a digital bank be a logical/potential next step?
Neo banks are gaining users at an impressive rate by innovating faster, Leading digital banks are accumulating impressive user numbers
reducing fees, offering higher interest rates on savings, providing a hook
(e.g., International P2P, robo-investing, savings analytics), and in many 16 mm 15 mm
cases, targeting niche demographics (Millennials, GenZ, underbanked) 14 mm
12 mm
Why not Amazon? Lower customer acquisition costs (brand, user base)
and the fact that Amazon would not need to turn a direct profit 10 mm
8 mm 8 mm
A digital bank from Amazon would have the potential to:
6 mm 5 mm
– Increase user engagement (account balance views, conducting other 4 mm 4 mm
transactions, bill-pay, etc.), another reason to open Amazon app 4 mm 3 mm
– Increase wallet share with account holders (funds kept within Amazon 2 mm
ecosystem) enhanced by even more purchase behavior information 0 mm
Monzo Stash N26 Chime Revolut Nubank
– Offer low or no fees, with monetization coming indirectly (flywheel effect)
– Come with user-friendly and high utility saving and spending analytics Underbanked, Millennial, and Gen Z populations in the US
– Target a combination of: (1) Amazon Prime subscribers and (2) underbanked 100 ~33mm total 91 mm
consumers, which expands Amazon’s customer reach (similar to the
90 unbanked and
Amazon.com Credit Builder card offering)
80 underbanked
households in the 72 mm
– Utilize a bank partner (we do not expect Amazon to pursue a bank license) 70 US (24.2mm
Would also stimulate adoption of Amazon Pay on 3rd party merchant sites 60 underbanked,
50 8.4mm unbanked)
– Offer rewards on debit cards that can be spent on Amazon.com and Amazon
Pay merchants (differentiated given debit interchange is now regulated for 40
large banks, meaningfully limiting rewards offers on debit) 30
– Offer discounts on Amazon.com and at Amazon Pay merchants when 20
purchases are funded via checking or savings accounts vs. cards 10
Concerns? Competing against existing partners (bank partners) and any 0
consumer data privacy fears (even un-founded) US un-banked & under- Millennials Gen Z
banked households (born 1981-1996) (born 1997 and later)
Source: Company reports, 2017 FDIC Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households, Statista, Credit Suisse research;
Digital bank user data based on most recent disclosures as of time of publishing 24 January 2020 208
36. Amazon’s building blocks in Payments & FinTech
What are some of the other logical/potential next steps?
Additional incentives for consumers & merchants to use Amazon Pay Amazon Local Register (2014-2015) offered introductory
– Amazon-funded discounts to expand the Amazon Pay network effect, both in the US transaction fees of 1.75%, meaningfully undercutting
and Europe (Amazon Pay is now in 18 countries) Square (2.75%), PayPal Here (2.7%), and others
– We note that Amazon offered limited-time pricing that was ~36% below competitors
for over a year (while ongoing pricing was ~9% below)
– Opening up Alexa to 3rd party merchants using Amazon Pay; we suspect
Voice-related payments apps will be an area where Amazon takes a leadership role
– Competitor retailers may resist (Amazon Pay is on 25% of non-competitive travel &
hospital sites vs. just 11% for toys, hobbies, & electronics sites)
– Financial app relationship with consumers enables expansion of Amazon Pay
in-store and potential to offer geo-targeted offers to drive foot traffic to merchants
(e.g., similar to Square Boost driving Cash App users in-store, at greater scale)
Digital bank offerings for Amazon Business customers
– Potential to feature added SMB software (e.g., expense management, inventory, Could Amazon and JP Morgan begin to partner on
etc.), leveraging internal data and products, along with white-labeled offerings additional financial services, alongside the more recent
– Business debit card produces interchange revenue and expense management data partnership between Apple and Goldman Sachs?
Offering additional financial services within Amazon (or a digital bank app)
– P2P, Wealth Management & Investing/Trading, high-yield savings, P&C Insurance
etc.; some could be done asset light (i.e., lead-generation, similar to Ant Financial &
WeChat)
Additional thoughts & broader expansion (and what we’ll be watching for)
– Furthering the JP Morgan partnership (as Apple and Goldman Sachs do the same)
– Risk of Amazon becoming more closed (i.e., less reliant on the traditional four-party
model, similar to Ant Financial & WeChat-like), although given numerous bank
partnerships and a desire to reduce friction (increased choice of payment method,
keep conversions high), we think Amazon will generally play ball
Source: Company reports 24 January 2020 209
37. Alipay & WeChat expand acceptance beyond China
Strategy that caters to Chinese outbound tourists
China outbound tourism is important to the payments ecosystem Mobile payments usage by Chinese tourists already surpassed
140mm China outbound tourists in 2018 spent ~$280b, growing at a ~6.5% cash in 2018, despite a still nascent acceptance footprint
CAGR (2015-2020E), majority in the “4-hour fly zone” (e.g., Korea, Japan), but
increasingly Europe; ~3.5mm Chinese visitors to the US
~1/3rd of transactions already done via mobile payments (despite nascent Mobile
Cash, 30% payment, 32%
merchant acceptance), with Alipay and WeChat the dominant platforms (~1b
users each, access to the majority of China consumers by dollar volume)
93% of Chinese outbound tourists state that they would increase their spending
while travelling if mobile payments were more widely accepted
Retail, restaurants, accommodations, tourist attractions, and in-market
transportation (e.g., ride-share) are the largest areas of spend
Card payment,
Alipay’s strategy for expansion beyond China is currently focused on Chinese 38%
travelers’ outbound spend (expanding global acceptance) and expanding the
user base across Southeast Asia (not competing for users in US & Europe)
China outbound tourism spend is approaching $300b, a figure
Gain merchant acceptance in key international destinations (e.g., New York, Los that is ~10% the size of Mastercard’s ex-US purchase volume
Angeles, London, Paris, Rome) for Alipay users
$340
Leverage existing ecosystem to support direct distribution, working with various $315b
payments service providers and merchant acquiring (e.g., First Data, Adyen, $320
Ingenico, Wirecard, Barclaycard, Citcon, Verifone, etc.) $300 $295b
At least 9 local eWallet partnerships allow Alipay users to leverage acceptance $277b
$280
network (e.g., Paytm in India, GCash in Philippines, Kakao Cash in the Korea,
TrueMoney in Thailand, Line Pay and Paypay in Japan) $260 $250b
$242b
$237b
Pitch to merchants? (1) Drive traffic and volume, including use of marketing $240
platform (“drive to store”); (2) Lower acceptance costs for merchants vs.
cross-border credit cards (price determined by payments partners, not Alipay) $220
Recently enabled a version of its app for foreigners visiting China (Tencent also $200
announced plans to allow foreigners to use international cards in China as well) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Source: McKinsey, Nielsen, Alipay, The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), Glenbrook Partners, 11:FS, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 210
37. Alipay & WeChat expand acceptance beyond China
Sizing the impact within the payments ecosystem
Our analysis suggests ~1% of volume, ~4-6% of revenue could be exposed to increasing Alipay & WeChat acceptance expansion beyond China
over the course of a multi-year period (i.e., at least 3-5 years, potentially more)
As Alipay & WeChat, and to a lesser extent, China Union Pay, expand acceptance outside China, Visa and Mastercard should see modest pressure
to their top lines. We note this has already been happening for years (gradually), but we attempt to quantify overall exposure to China below.
Our analysis assumes ~40% of China outbound tourism is spent via bank cards, the majority of which are Visa and Mastercard branded (although we
note that China Union Pay has a Discover network partnership), along with meaningfully higher yields (cross-border pricing vs. domestic).
Alipay’s current strategy is not to gain users outside China (i.e., risk to Visa and Mastercard is currently contained to China outbound tourism and
eCommerce); the current focus is on broader APAC consumers, which likely eases cooperation with existing ecosystem.
Sizing China Exposure relative to V/MA 2018E Comment / Rationale
Mastercard $4,338 FY 2018A
Visa $8,450 CY 2018A
Total $12,788
China outbound tourism $277 McKinsey, which implies ~$2k per trip
% of combined V/MA volume 2.2% Represents entire opportunity (card, cash, Alipay/WeChat) as a % of V & MA volume
China outbound tourism on card 38% "2018 trends for mobile payment in Chinese outbound tourism" (Nielsen & Alipay)
Implied China outbound card volumes $105
Assumed V & MA portion 80% Assumes China Union Pay (Discover network) & American Express have some share
Implied China outbound V & MA card volumes (via tourism) $84
Gross up assumption for eCommerce 35% Assumes China cross-border eCommerce ~30% of tourism spend
Total implied China outbound V&MA card volumes (tourim and eCommerce)$114
% of V/MA combined volume 0.9% Represents est. V & MA volume exposure to China cross-border
Multiplier on yield ~4-7x Meaningfully higher cross-border yield, offset by non-volume based revenue mix
% of V/MA combined revenue ~4 - 6% Implied contribution to combined V/MA revenue
Source: McKinsey, Nielsen, Alipay, The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 211
38. Cryptocurrency impact on the Payments ecosystem
Unlikely to gain C2B payments adoption at least for the medium term…
Reasons we believe cryptocurrencies will be challenged to make a meaningful impact on Bitcoin volatility creates challenges in payments for both merchants
the existing consumer payments (C2B) ecosystem over the near to medium term (i.e., (acceptance risk) and consumers (taxable events)
minimal downside risk to our companies under coverage):
BTC price Volatility
1. Lack of chargeback & dispute process – lack of consumer disputes mechanism, $20,000 160%
and adding such functionality would add costs (Note: merchants would welcome a $17,500 140%
system with no chargeback risks, but consumers would not, nor would regulators)
$15,000 120%
2. Taxation – each cryptocurrency transaction is a taxable (capital gain or loss) $12,500 100%
transaction; means for calculating vs. cost basis, tax reporting, etc. yet to be solved
$10,000 80%
3. Regulatory uncertainty – lack of regulatory certainty creates a “holding pattern” $7,500 60%
$5,000 40%
4. Price volatility – elevated levels of volatility bring additional risk into the merchant
acceptance equation (absent a third-party aggregating such risk) $2,500 20%
$- 0%
5. Requires merchant adoption – Visa & Mastercard cards are accepted at 46mm+
merchant locations with an established distribution channel (e.g., banks and acquirers)
6. Requires consumer adoption – Visa & Mastercard have gathered ~3.5b (Visa) Average fees per Bitcoin transaction can be volatile, particularly
cards worth of consumption power, along with incentive systems (rewards on credit) under times of congestion (a challenge for payments acceptance)
$60 Average Fee per transaction (USD)
7. Transaction costs – absolute levels under normal circumstances are not challenging,
but the transaction cost volatility is – costs can prohibitive at times of congestion, $50
particularly for smaller transaction sizes (fees are decoupled from transaction size)
$40
8. Debit-only substitute – lack of credit extension mechanism exists in cryptocurrency
$30
9. Vast number of coins – approximately 1.6k competing coins as of 2018 $20
10. Speed – Bitcoin can process ~7 transactions per second vs. ~65k capacity for $10
VisaNet, with time spanning up to 10 minutes (or more, with backlogs), albeit with an
$-
understanding that other (non-Bitcoin) cryptocurrencies are meaningfully faster (e.g.,
Dash, EOS, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, Ripple, etc.)
Source: CoinMetrics, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 212
38. Cryptocurrency impact on the Payments ecosystem
…but there are nascent and niche use cases we plan to monitor…
Select innovations could alleviate some of the We see select C2C remittances use cases for more Cross-border B2B is the most meaningful, medium-
drawbacks of using crypto in C2B payments volatile and lower-volume EM markets term use case for crypto payments
Numerous examples of innovations that effectively Existing platforms (e.g., Transferwise, Remitly, Up against an existing bank wire transfer (SWIFT
solve for one or many of the status quo challenges Western Union, Ria) already have developed global messaging) system that is viewed as less than ideal
(i.e., speed, volatility/certainty to merchants accepting treasury operations and innovations (matching) that and utilizes multiple correspondent banks per
payments, costs), but not all (i.e., taxation remains an effectively enable real-time C2C cross-border transaction, resulting in uncertain timing (3-5 days),
issue, along with regulatory uncertainty and lack of payments at reasonably low fees high (and also uncertain) fees, and high failure rates
chargeback and dispute processes) While matching (netting) can “match volumes” across Platforms like Ripple have the potential to reduce
A key rationale for crypto is decentralization – which high-volume developed market currencies (G10), and settlement times (from days to seconds) and provide
appears unlikely for C2B payments given a need for use traditional banking rails for the remaining amounts, savings (low bps, but large absolute dollars)
taxation, instant conversion, consumer protection, etc. challenges remain in lower-volume EM currencies
C2B innovation will have a higher bar for …while cross-border C2C (remittances) solves …cross-border B2B payments are an actual
adoption, given the status quo works well… a problem for volatile EM currencies… pain point (i.e., a problem to be solved)
Additional layer on top of the blockchain, MoneyGram and Ripple are partnering to ~300 financial institutions using platform
The introduce XRP into the MoneyGram
using payments channels between parties; Ripple (RippleNet), which provides an option to
Lightning platform. This 2-year agreement allows
when the channel is closed, the use XRP cryptocurrency
Network for XRP (and xRapid, which is a platform
transactions are added to the blockchain
for utilizing XRP) to be used in JP Morgan’s stable coin (USD backed) for
MGI-Ripple JPM Coin use in B2B payments, securities
Bitcoin payments processing for merchants MoneyGram-sourced cross-border
at a fee of 1%; removes volatility issue for transactions. In addition to a $50mm transactions, and treasury applications
BitPay merchants (by promising a $ amount at the investment from Ripple, MoneyGram also
time of the transaction) and aggregating hopes to improve its working capital (i.e., Cross-broder solution that uses the Steller
the volatility risk on their end IBM World
reduce need for funds in foreign banks). protocol and a multi-digital asset approach
Wire
(e.g., stable coins, centeral bank coins)
Evaluated various blockchain technologies
Less volatile due to linkage to either one
Stable (including Ripple), but have yet to find a
(e.g., USD Coin by Coinbase and Cirlce) or Transferwise
Coins solution that enables them to improve on Offers Corda Settler, which supports XRP
many (e.g., Libra) fiat currencies
their current speed, costs, etc. (but intended to support multiple options);
R3 Partnering with SWIFT on standards,
Potential example of a stable coin, backed Western Also evaluating Ripple, although initially Global Payments Innovation (Swift gpi);
Libra
by a basket of fiat currencies Union was less bullish, trials continue Bank of America recently joined MPN
Source: Ripple, BitPay, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 213
38. Cryptocurrency impact on the Payments ecosystem
…along with crypto-related activities for our covered companies
Company Cryptocurrency-related activity
• Launched Bitcoin buy/sell capabilities within Cash app in Q4 2017
Square • “It’s not an if, it’s more of a when and how do we make sure that we’re getting the speed that we need and the efficiency.”
– Jack Dorsey, CEO in speaking about integrating the Lightning Network into the Cash app (February 2019)
• Worldpay is the acquirer for Coinbase, a leading cryptocurrency wallet (i.e., Worldpay benefits when users load fiat currency
FIS
into their Coinbase account)
• Currently does not support cryptocurrency (does not see demand for it from merchants)
PayPal • Braintree-enabled Bitcoin acceptance in 2014, but pulled it back due to lack of demand/usage
• Originally announced as part of the original Libra Association (although later removed itself)
• Partnered with Coinbase on the issuance of a Visa card
Visa
• Originally announced as part of the original Libra Association (although later removed itself)
• Recent hiring in areas of cryptocurrency (payments, wallets)
Mastercard
• Originally announced as part of the original Libra Association (although later removed itself)
• Testing and considering use of Ripple (XRP) for cross-border (Ripple has made a $50mm investment in Western Union
Western Union
competitor, MoneyGram)
Note: We do not plan to express views on cryptocurrencies themselves. The scope of our research interest is limited to the potential to impact (benefit or harm) the financial results and
stock prices of the companies we cover.
Source: Company reports / public commentary 24 January 2020 214
39. Emergence of modern platforms in EM
Tech platforms & super-apps represent important partners for 4-party incumbents
Ingredients are present to create “super-apps” in emerging markets (large population, high smart phone penetration,
low credit card penetration, underbanked populations, fast-growing eCommerce markets).
Smartphone penetration is north of 50% and approaching 75% in many markets, while credit card penetration
remains low (~5-40%) – i.e., cash payment still dominant.
Mastercard estimates 75% of Southeast Asians are underbanked, providing opportunity to increase card adoption
while consumer electronic payment preferences are still being formed (i.e., Visa and Mastercard partnering with
emerging platforms to avoid cards being leap-frogged in a similar manner to China with Alipay and WeChat).
For e.g., Argentina-based MercadoPago has a large user base in Central/South America and issues Mastercard prepaid debit, while
Columbia-based Rappi has ~4mm users recently launched Visa pre-paid cards in 2019
Emerging Markets characterized by high smart phone penetration
Southeast Asia ingredients for the creation of “super-apps”
but lower card penetration
Card Penetration Smart Phone Penetration
80%
~75% underbanked
73% 75%
70%
63%
60% 55%
51% Fast-growing eCommerce markets
50% 45% 44%
40%
30%
Low card penetration (~5-40%);
22% 20%
19% i.e., cash payment still dominant
20%
9%
10% 6%
0% High mobile penetration (~50-75%)
India Indonesia Philippines Brazil Colombia Argentina
Source: Company Reports, Contoxo, CNBC, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 215
39. Emergence of modern platforms in EM
Grab and Go-Jek as examples in Southeast Asia
Fundamentally different business models vs. western platforms like
PayPal – monetizing off across numerous revenue lines (e.g.,
ride-sharing, delivery, Ads, banking products, etc.) leads to a different
approach to payments Grab’s GrabPay and Go-Jek’s Go-Pay are
Payments as the “glue” to their ecosystems, justifying rationale to leaders of digital payments in Southeast Asia
online and offline
undercharge merchants to grow their platform
Southeast Asia’s rapidly growing super-apps: Go-Jek and Grab
– User base includes ~1/3 of the regions ~>640mm population, representing
ideal distribution partners for payments companies
– The opportunity for the card networks is predominately cross-border spend on
prepaid cards given these platforms utilize closed-loop payments in-country
– Mastercard and Visa partnered with Grab and Go-Jek, respectively, to provide
prepaid debit cards and global acceptance
Grab’s GrabPay and Go-Jek’s Go-Pay are leaders of digital payments in
the region online and offline
– QR codes enable merchants to accept electronic payments with as little as a
piece of paper (no terminal costs / integrations)
– QR payment through Super Apps could offer attractive incentives to build
consumer habits (e.g., QR wallets linked directly to banks, offering 10% off
promotions), although not a longer-term sustainable approach.
– Limited rationale to build platform via legacy 4-party model given high hurdles for
merchant adoption
Source: CNBC, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 216
39. Emergence of modern platforms in EM
Grab: Southeast Asia’s leading offline-to-online platform
Founded in 2012 as a ride-hailing app – similar to Uber, expanded into delivery (2015), and launched GrabPay (2016), leveraging the power of
its two-sided network
– Operations in a market of >640mm consumers in 8 countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines, Myanmar)
– Now one of the largest employers across Southeast Asia with ~3mm drivers and >100mm users
2018 revenue exceeded $1bn and expected to double in 2019, according to Fortune
Key investors include: SoftBank, Toyota, Experian, Microsoft; acquired Uber’s operations in March 2018 in exchange for a 27.5% stake
On-demand Transportation Financial Services Market Place
Largest player in the region Grab
– Loans and insurance services
Financial – On-demand delivery for
users to send items such
– ~3mm drivers vs. ~2m for Uber (globally) – In-app mobile payments analogous to
as documents, parcels, and
– ~6mm rides per day Alipay with online and offline capabilities
gifts to business partners,
– Offers monthly subscription ride packages through QR codes
GrabExpress family, and friends
– Adoption supported by 2-sided network
of drivers & users of ride-hailing feature
GrabPay – Addresses local challenges
Offerings include: – For merchants, powers online and
of last-mile delivery in
offline storefronts, taps on Grab’s large
congested cities
user base, access to partner-exclusive
– GrabTaxi online promotions & campaigns
– GrabBike – Mastercard prepaid card for
– GrabCycle cross-border spend
– GrabShuttle GrabFood – Food delivery platform
– Offers car rentals – Earn points for spend on platform to be similar to UberEats
GrabRewards
used at any Grab merchant
Source: Company reports, Fortune, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 217
39. Emergence of modern platforms in EM
PayPal becoming the Super App Equivalent in DM; partner ecosystem
Incumbent ecosystem partners Traditional eCommerce (Large & Small)
Drives customer acquisition
and payments volume growth
(e.g., 40 bank-led marketing
campaigns in 2018)
Platforms & Market Places
Provides PayPal with in-store
card network tokens and
necessary acquiring bank ~23mm Merchants 80% of Internet
relationships Retailer 500
Other market places
Social Networking post eBay agreement
Ride-Sharing & Food Delivery
PayPal powers Facebook Pay
and also allows Venmo users ~300mm Consumers Daily use case spend
categories, aids
to sync their Facebook friends
consumer engagement
list Travel Commerce
Plans to power Uber’s
PayPal also powers Instagram mobile wallet - direct
Shopping distribution channel to
underbanked driver’s
globally
Source: Company websites, Credit Suisse 24 January 2020 218
40. National payment schemes, alternatives to V and MA
Payments is the most local, global business
Nationalism related to payments schemes can make for an uneven Sample list of competing domestic networks, the majority of
playing field for Visa & Mastercard in some countries which are by definition sub-scale relative to Visa & Mastercard,
and thus have a lesser ability to invest, innovate, etc.
– Varying degrees of regulations supporting government-sponsored Eftpos (Australia), Eftpos (New Zealand), BC Card (South Korea, Smartlink
domestic payment schemes and/or mandating that processing AsiaPac (Vietnam), VNBC (Vietnam), Bancnet (Philippines), MegaLink (Philippines),
(authorization, clearing, and settlement) be performed by local entities NEPS (Nepal)
North US PIN debit networks (STAR, Accel, NYCE, Jeanie, Presto, Shazam, etc.),
– China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Thailand, and Vietnam are examples where America Interac (Canada)
some form of government support or mandate exists
Girocard (Germany), Carte Bancaire (France), PostFinance (Switzerland),
– Some countries are mandating data localization, which aside from Europe Multibanco (Portugal), Eufiserv (Pan Europe ATM), BCC (Belgium), Nets
(Nordic/Baltic), UPC (Ukraine), DIAS (Greece)
increasing operating expenses (a lesser concern), limits the use of the data
in informing risk models Latin
Elo (Brazil), Prosa (Mexico), Redcompra (Chile)
America
– Additionally, there are certain countries where either the government itself
Middle GCC Net (pan-Middle East), BENEFIT (Bahrain), UAE SWITCH, OMAN
or consortiums of local banks own domestic processing assets East & NET, KNET (Kuwait), NAPS (Qatar), InterSwitch/Verve (Nigeria), Monetique
Africa (Tunisia), EthSwitch (Ethiopia)
What are some of the offsetting forces for Visa & Mastercard?
– Global scale and the ability to invest & innovate in an increasingly complex V & MA process ~75-80% of their transactions (i.e.,
transactions where V/MA earn processing revenue)
payments ecosystem (e.g., security & fraud management, global
acceptance, eCommerce, tokenization); local schemes are challenged to Visa % processed Mastercard % processed
keep pace given they are sub-scale, at times non-profit entities, and they 90%
often lack cross-border capabilities Visa Europe
85% (June 2016)
81%
– For balance, almost every country has some form of local or domestic
80%
payments scheme that V/MA must compete with (this is not new), and 76%
despite this, V/MA have maintained processing share of their own 75%
transactions
70%
– We believe the widening gap between global card networks and domestic
schemes will aid continued share gains for V/MA 65%
60%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
Source: Company reports, Reuters, Infosys, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 219
40. National payment schemes, alternatives to V and MA
European example, and the moat around Visa & Mastercard
European domestic schemes continue to lose share to V & MA, partially Reasons we believe V & MA will maintain/increase share in Europe (in addition
driven by a lack pan-European acceptance without co-badging. European to a greater ability to invest/innovate – e.g., online, tokenization, contactless,
regulators are committed to unifying the domestic schemes: etc.) relative to comparatively sub-scale domestic schemes:
We believe this is likely the next focus of completing the SEPA vision FinTech issuers (“Challenger banks”) will continue to pick V/MA due to: 1)
(that lead to the euro, PSD2, IFR, etc.) and is a risk we plan to monitor, pan-European & global acceptance vs. single country; 2) card monetization
although past initiatives have failed is a main source of monetization, and thus best-in-class capabilities from
V/MA are crucial: and (3) V/MA have invested in programs specifically to
Large upfront investment required to capture a smaller portion of onboard FinTechs (i.e., why would a FinTech waste time with onboarding
transactions (~8% of European card transactions are cross-border) with each domestic scheme when they could get fast, global acceptance
V/MA are partially hedged given; 1) their networks would be required for with V or MA?)
acceptance outside Europe; 2) incumbent banks increasingly need help
from increasing competition with PSD2; and 3) SEPA for cards is Interchange has already been capped in Europe (both domestic and cross-
“market-driven” border), removing the prior total MDR advantage for national schemes
The ECB believes a connected instant payment systems may be a viable Co-badging is a solution that has worked for pan-European acceptance
solution, positioning MA best to help realize this objective (global (i.e., domestic scheme for in-country, V or MA for cross-border)
networks have non-card capabilities that could be helpful to select
domestic schemes, although case-by-case to avoid improving a
competitor network)
According to the ECB, in 2013, there were 23 active national card International schemes have gained share, reaching ~2/3 of
schemes in Europe – that number dropped to 17 by 2018 transactions on European-issued cards (2016 vs. ~half in 2009)
8 2013 2018 International schemes (e.g., V/MA) National schemes
7 90%
6 66% 67% 68%
63% 64%
5 70% 58%
53% 54%
4
50%
3
47% 46%
2 30% 42%
38% 36% 34% 33% 32%
1
10%
0
Belgium Bulgaria Denmark Germany Ireland Spain France Italy Malta Portugal Slovenia
-10% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: European Central Bank, Credit Suisse research; SCT Inst is SEPA Instant Credit Transfer, launched November 2017 24 January 2020 220
40. National payment schemes, alternatives to V and MA
Payments in China, Union Pay the single domestic network
Currently, the only network allowed to handle renminbi- “… Alipay and Tencent -- Tencent's WeChat in the last 18 months has
denominated settlement and clearing is China UnionPay been able to really drive a Mac truck through payments in China. And the
(majority owned by the People’s Bank of China - PBOC). reality is that…they certainly have had the advantage of not being regulated
as a bank, and I don't think that's going to be the case as they ultimately
Visa and Mastercard offer single-badged and co-badged cards migrate out of China. But also I think CUP took their eye off the ball as
(through Chinese issuing banks) for use when travelling they probably put more emphasis on looking at growing acceptance outside
outside China. of China. And as a result, we've seen what happens…”
China Union Pay has ceded mobile payments share to both – Al Kelly, CEO, Visa (May 2017)
Alipay and WeChat (which combine for 90%+ share).
APAC card network volumes are dominated by China Union
APAC general purpose card (GCP) payments volume
Pay, making up ~80% of the entire region
Visa
UnionPay 11%
volumes 5-yr $14.0tr
Mastercard
CAGR of
6%
22%.... .... while all others
grew volumes at a 9% JCB
CAGR over the same 2%
timeframe American
Express
$5.1tr 1%
$3.5 tr
$2.3 tr Diners Club
0%
UnionPay
2013 2018 2013 2018 80%
Source: The Nilson Report, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 221
40. National payment schemes, alternatives to V and MA
Payments in China – 20 years of history since China joined WTO
PayPal recently announced that the PBOC approved its acquisition (70% equity ownership) of PayPal announced intent to acquire 70%
Guofubao Information Technology Co (GoPay). of GoPay in September 2019
China is the largest digital payments market in the world, forecast to represent nearly $2tr, or
>50%, of global online retail sales in 2019 and ~40% of cross-border eCommerce by 2021
(>500mm Chinese consumers).
PayPal believes this opportunity has the potential to be material in the medium to longer term
(2021 and beyond) but acknowledges a relatively high degree of uncertainty (see timeline below).
GoPay has a license enabling it to process online and mobile payments in China and issues
UnionPay-branded debit cards.
PayPal will not have the ability to clear and settle transactions.
2020
American Express was the first US-based network to enter China through its JV with China-based
The PBOC accepted
LianLian Group (November 2018). In January 2020 the PBOC announced it accepted American AMEX’s application to
Express’ application to start a bank clearing card business in China (final approval is still required) start a bank card
clearing business in
2010 China which would
WTO asked by US Trade Representative to create a panel make it first US network
to discuss “discriminatory and restrictive” treatment of US 2017 2017 2018 to enter China if final
payments networks prohibited from operating in China People’s Bank of China Mastercard and After the US gov’t approval is granted
(PBOC) issued Bank Card American Express placed tariffs on
2006 Clearing Institute (BCCI) entered agreements with Chinese goods, the
2000 China mandated to allow license regulations – in joint venture partners to approval process for 2019
China admitted to the World payments access to US order to clear and settle pursue a BCCI license; Visa and Mastercard PayPal acquired
Trade Organization (WTO) providers (but no agreement payments on renminbi- Visa has not publicly was suspended and majority stake in GoPay
was reached) denominated cards announced any partners has not resumed since – a small Chinese
payments company
2000 2020
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 222
40. National payment schemes, alternatives to V and MA
Examples of government and/or local preferential treatment
Benefiting domestic
Country/Region Government and/or local operating preferential actions
network
• Only China Union Pay (CUP) is able to process domestic transactions
• Both V & MA have filed applications via the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) requesting a Bank Card Clearing
China China Union Pay Institution (BCCI) license, the applications have yet to be “recognized”
• CUP (and Mir, below) have expanded acceptance outside their home countries, which puts a distant risk on the
table around the networks’ international routing rule (requires international transactions be processed by V & MA)
• Mir was created in 2014 and favored by Russia’s National Card Payment System (NSPK)
Russia Mir • Government disburses payments (e.g., pension, unemployment benefits) on Mir cards
• Effectively prevents V & MA from processing domestic transactions (all domestic transactions run through NSPK)
• RuPay is owned by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), which is in turn owned by a group of
state banks (along with private and foreign banks)
• Publicly supported by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
India RuPay
• Demonitization (removing high-value paper notes) efforts in 2016 have led to increased digital payments and thus
the importance of any potential favoritism
• RuPay (similar to CUP) has a partnership with Discover to allow for more global acceptance
• Local regulations require processing be done domestically, per National Payment Gateway (NPG), via Gerbang
Gerbang Pembayaran
Indonesia Pembayaran Nasional
Nasional
• Switching companies must be at least 80% owned by a domestic entity
Thai Payment
Thailand • Domestic processing mandate by the Electronic Transactions Commission (for debit)
Network
Vietnam Smartlink, VNBC • Smartlink, VNBC are the domestic networks
• As of 2016, new regulations mandated that Visa and Mastercard could no longer earn fees on domestic
Europe All domestic schemes European transactions if the processing was done by a domestic network
• Card networks previously earned a small brand assessment in select countries (those fees were eliminated)
Source: Company reports, Reuters, Infosys, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 223
Payments Primer Materials
1. The 4-party model
Diagram and economics
Card Payment
Customer Merchant
Network Back-end
Provides credit Pays debts (Clearing & Pays
processing
Settling) MDR (Clearing &
Settling)
Merchant
Issuing Bank
Acquirer
Provides funds to merchant bank
(net of interchange)
Issuing Bank: Customer: Network: Merchant Acquirer: Merchant
+ 205bps – interchange - $100 – payment +15bps – merchant fee + 250bps – MDR + $100 – sale
- 10bps – network fees - $100 net +10bps – issuer fee - 205bps – interchange - 200bps – MDR
- 3bps – issuer processing - 6bps – rebates - 15bps – network fees + 2bps – rebates
+ 3bps – rebates +19bps net + 3bps – rebates = + $98.02 net
= + 195bps net = + 23bps net
Transaction notes:
• Customer inserts card into POS terminal (data capture), then the merchant acquirer routes the data to the network, which then queries the issuing bank for
authorization (sufficient funds, fraud checks, etc.)
• Then the authorization flows back through the system to the merchant acquirer, allowing the transaction to close
• Then the issuing bank settles the outstanding balance with the merchant’s bank, and the funds are deposited net of fees
Source: Company reports, Glenbrook Partners, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 225
1. The 4-party model
Description of parties with examples (illustrative economics)
Merchant Acquirer
Merchant Network Front-end Back-end Card Issuer Issuer Processor
processor (acquirer processor)
Network:
Accepts payments from Acts as the hub for card Signs up individual merchants, Handles settlement and clearing Provides consumers Sits in front of the issuing bank to
consumers and pays payment transactions, underwrites a merchant account for messages received from the and businesses with receive authorization request messages
the merchant discount relaying authorization and them at the underlying acquiring card network, and deposits bank accounts, credit from the card network, and relays
rate (MDR) to the settlement messages bank, and enables merchants to funds net of fees into the extension, and cards; decision back to the card network (in
merchant acquirer between issuing and accept card payments; captures merchant’s account; receives earns interchange on real time); then, clears and settles
acquiring banks (earning card/transaction data, routes the fixed fee per transaction, a card transactions, the transaction for the issuing bank; earns
fees from both in the message to appropriate network for minority portion of the acquiring largest portion of the account and transaction fees, outside
process) authorization (in real-time); earns spread1; chargebacks come to MDR. Interchange rates of the MDR (indirectly funded by the
the majority of the acquiring spread1 the merchant via the back-end are set by V/MA issuers’ portion)
processor
Target, Home Depot, Visa & Mastercard (open- FIS (Worldpay), Global Payments & TSYS, Adyen, Chase Paymentech, Chase, Barclaycard, TSYS, FIS, Fiserv (First Data),
McDonald’s, Lululemon, loop); American Express & Fiserv (First Data), Repay – all technically operate as ISOs in the US, Bank of America, Wells Marqeta, Galileo, i2c, or in-house for
Reebok, Safeway, Discover (closed-loop); sponsored by an acquiring bank Fargo, US Bank, larger banks (TSYS is the share leader
WaWa STAR, Accel, NYCE, Capital One, Citi, among banks that outsource)
Pulse, Interlink, Jeannie Square, PayPal, Stripe Acquiring banks (BIN sponsor): Synchrony Financial
(PIN debit) Wells Fargo, BMO Harris,
BBVA USA, MetaBank, etc.
Sample economics on $100 eCommerce credit card transaction
+ $100 Customer + $0.15 Merchant network fee + $2.50 MDR + $0.05 Back-end acquiring fee +$ 2.05 ($0.10 + 195bps) +$0.03 (flat charge)
payment + $0.10 Issuer network fee - $0.15 Merchant network fee (~25% of acquiring spread ex- Interchange issuer processor fee
- $2.50 (250bps) MDR - $0.03 3bps rebates (acquirer) - $0.05 Back-end processing fee rebates, which was $0.20 in this - $0.10 Issuer network fees
= + $97.50 - $0.03 3bps rebates (issuer) - $2.05 Interchange example) - $0.03 (flat charge) Issuer Note: Issuer processors also
= +$0.19 net = + $0.25 acquiring spread processor fee charge fees based on the
- $0.05 back-end acquiring fee + $0.03 network rebates number of accounts, along with
+ $0.03 Network rebates = + $1.95 net other services like statement
= + $0.23 net printing, card production,
customer service, etc.
Source: Glenbrook Partners, Credit Suisse research, 1 Acquiring spread refers to the portion of the MDR the acquirer retains after all other parties receive
their fees (networks, back-end acquiring processor, and the issuing bank); depending on the contract, these fees are fixed (cost +) or variable (in which
case the spread is dictated by the level of interchange associated with the specific type of card), generally for smaller merchants without pricing power; 24 January 2020 226
merchant acquirers also pay small fees to their sponsoring acquiring bank for BIN rental (~1-3bps)
1. The 4-party model
Step 1. Authorization (illustrative example, credit cards)
Customer
1. Data Capture – The customer inserts the credit card
into the merchant’s POS (online or in-store). Card
credentials and transaction data are captured (and if Merchant
prompted, the customer provides 2-factor (retailer)
authentication). 4
2. Authorization Routing - The merchant acquirer sends
the authorization request through the network (e.g., Network
V, MA) for the card being used, which is ultimately
received by the issuing bank (that issued the card).
3. Once the issuing bank has authorized the transaction
(sufficient credit available, fraud, risk analysis, etc.), 1
it will communicate a confirmation back through the 2
network to the merchant acquire in real time.
3 Merchant Acquirer
Note: Europe – if a non-exempt issuer transaction, then issuer
must verify using 2-factor authentication (PSD2 SCA) Issuing Bank
Front-End
Authorization
4. The merchant receives confirmation (from its
merchant acquirer) that the transaction is
authorized and completes the sale.
Source: Company websites, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 227
1. The 4-party model
Step 2. Payment and settlement (illustrative example)
5. To initiate the payment process, the credit card issuing bank 9 Customer
will front credit on behalf of the customer to settle the
transaction, which is then routed through the payments
network. Merchant
(retailer) Merchant Bank
6. The network passes the transaction to the merchant 8
acquirer’s back-end processor (which may be handled by a
third-party) for settlement.
7. Ultimately, the back-end merchant processor will settle the
net outstanding balance between the card-issuing bank and
the merchant acquiring bank (where the merchant has its Network
merchant account). 7
The settlement bank sits between both the merchant bank and the
issuing bank and settles daily via a netting process by account
(facilitated by V, MA).
8. The merchant bank will then credit the merchant’s account for
the amount of the purchase, less fees charged for facilitating 6
the transaction across multiple parties, such as:
– Interchange ~150-300bps paid to the issuing bank, 5 Merchant Acquirer
– Acquiring spread ~10-100bps (wide range) paid to the
merchant acquirer (majority to front-end processor if separate), Issuing Bank Front-End Back-End
– Network fees ~15-20bps paid to the networks (net of rebates Authorization Processing
and incentives).
9. Credit card statement comes due, and the cardholder must
pay the bill (interest on unpaid balances earned by issuing
bank, which can represent the majority of total credit card
economics).
Source: Company websites, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 228
1. The 4-party model
Interchange fee economics
Interchange fee dynamics Various US Interchange fees paid to issuers for a sample $50
Visa retail transaction; regulated debit cards carry
– Interchange fees differ by type of card used (credit, debit, significantly lower interchange rates
prepaid debt, Durbin-exempt debit) and by transaction type,
1.63%
merchant type, domestic vs. cross-border, etc. 1.45%
– Interchange fees are set by the card networks (Visa, 1.10%
Mastercard) but earned by issuing banks
Interchange rate caps 0.47%
– Generally increased over time due to increased mix of premium
cards (e.g., Platinum rewards programs)
Credit Card Exempt (unregulated) Exempt (unregulated) Regulated debit
Durbin Amendment (Dodd-Frank Act of 2010) prepaid debit debit
– Reduced interchange fees earned by debit issuers with greater
e-Commerce Retail
than $10b in assets
Exempt Exempt
Visa US interchange Regulated
Credit Card Credit card (unregulated) (unregulated)
– Non-Durbin exempt debit capped = 5bps + $0.21 (US Retail category)
prepaid debit debit
debit
Interchange fee caps in Europe (IFR regulations) Illustrative Transaction Size $50 $50 $50 $50 $50
+ Cents per Transaction 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.21
– ~20bps for debit x % of volume 1.95% 1.43% 1.15% 0.80% 0.05%
– ~30bps for credit = Total Interchange ($) $1.08 $0.82 $0.73 $0.55 $0.24
Total interchange (%) 2.15% 1.63% 1.45% 1.10% 0.47%
Source: Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 229
2. Merchant Acquiring Pricing
“Interchange plus (+ +)” pricing
The merchant acquirer charges a fixed spread on top of interchange
(paid to issuing bank) and card network fees (Visa, Mastercard)
– Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) ~250bps (variable by definition) – Fee paid e-Commerce Typical Interchange + Pricing
by the merchant accepting a transaction to the merchant acquirer for a Mid-Size Merchant
– Interchange ~195bps – Fee paid to issuing bank based on a combination of 2.50%
card type (rewards level, gold card, platinum, etc.), merchant type, domestic For a typical e-commerce credit card
vs. cross-border, etc.; largest component of MDR transaction with an online merchant, by
percentage of total purchase cost
– Network fees ~10-30bps – Fee paid to the card networks (Visa, Mastercard)
Acquiring
Brand / service fee (assessment), ad valorem charges spread (fixed)
Data processing fees (processing), cents per transaction charges 0.35% Network
0.20% assessment fee
– Acquiring spread (fixed under interchange ++, although likely associated with
tiered volume discounts) but can range ~10-40bps – Set by and paid to 1.95%
merchant acquirer (and perhaps is shared with a third-party back-end Interchange
processor) in exchange for acquiring, processing, and settling the transaction;
Acquiring spread is inversely related to merchant size (higher volumes gives
97.50%
larger merchants pricing power)
Price transparency considerations for merchants:
– Larger merchants demand and receive greater price transparency versus
smaller merchants (larger are more likely to use interchange ++ model)
– European Union laws require greater pricing disclosures vs. US
Source: Company websites, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 230
2. Merchant Acquiring Pricing
Bundled fee model
The merchant acquirer earns a variable spread but charges a standardized fee
per transaction (acquirer then absorbs all other transaction-related fees)
Typical Bundled Pricing for a Small Merchant
Example: Square’s rack rate pricing is bundled fee
– Flat 2.60% + $0.10 for each merchant transaction (card present, in-store),
allowing Square to earn this amount less interchange, network fees, and any 3.00%
back-end processing fees (including sponsor acquiring bank fees) For a typical e-commerce credit card
transaction with an online merchant,
– Larger merchants are able to negotiate lower pricing based on volume levels by percentage of total purchase cost
and/or card mix (e.g., higher debit would allow the merchant to negotiate the
bundled fee slightly lower) Acquiring
spread (varies)
– Interchange ~195bps – Fee paid to issuing bank based on a combination of
card type (rewards level, gold card, platinum, etc.), merchant type, domestic vs. 0.85% Network
cross-border, etc.; largest component of MDR 0.20% assessment
fee
– Network fees ~10-30bps – Fee paid to the credit card networks (Visa,
Mastercard 1.95%
Interchange
Brand / service fee (assessment), ad valorem charges
Data processing fees (processing), cents per transaction charges
97.00%
– Acquiring spread ~30-100bps (variable) – Set by and paid to merchant acquirer
(and perhaps is shared with a third-party back-end processor) in exchange for
acquiring, processing, and settling the transaction; smaller merchants typically
sign up for bundled fee pricing
Simplified pricing model for merchants (pay one rate on all purchases vs.
interchange++ varying by card type, transaction type, etc.), but less
transparent as to underlying cost components (merchants cannot tell how
much money goes to acquirer on each transaction)
Source: Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 231
3. Roles in merchant acquiring
Front-end processing and back-end processing
Front-end processing roles Back-end processing roles
POS Front-end Back-end Acquiring
ISO Gateway
Vendor Processor Processor Bank
POS Vendor Back-end Processor
– A device at a physical store location allowing a merchant to accept card payments – Receives and processes batched settlement and
– Can be supplied by a merchant acquirer/ISO clearing messages, earning a fixed fee
Independent Sales Organization (ISO) – Nets interchange from transaction proceeds,
routing the settlement amount to the merchant
– Signs up merchants for card acquiring capabilities
– Creates bill and reporting for underlying merchant
– Receives a portion of the acquiring spread (commission)
Acquiring Bank
– Merchant of record only in “wholesale” relationships
– Acquiring license (from the card networks) is
Gateway needed to be a merchant acquirer
– Receives transaction data from POS and transmits it to the network via front-end – In the US, non-acquiring banks achieve this
processor for authorization capability via partnership (“renting a BIN” from a
– Earns a fixed fee per transaction (lowest share out of 4 front-end roles) sponsor acquiring bank)
– eCommerce a frequent use case (bridging merchants to the front-end processor) – In Europe and other parts of the world, payments
Front-end Processor service providers can more easily directly obtain an
acquiring license
– Handles authorization message communication for merchants, earning a fixed fee
– Responsible for merchant’s and processor’s
– Gateways may allow a merchant to connect to multiple front-end processors adherence to rules of the network
Source: Glenbrook Partners, Credit Suisse research; Note: often larger acquirers and ISO fulfill many or all of the 24 January 2020 232
roles above, while others specialize in certain aspects and outsource others to third parties
3. Roles in Merchant Acquiring
Local acquiring
Acquiring licenses allow merchant acquirers to underwrite merchants, accept payments, and settle funds back to the merchant through the
processing platform. The acquirer takes on the merchant default risk for situations in which the merchant has chargebacks and for any number
of reasons it is not able or willing to pay (e.g., no funds in account, goes out of business, was fraudulent).
– Increased Authorization Rates - When a payment processor is operating with a local acquiring license in the same market as the issuing bank, the
risk associated with approving that transaction is perceived to be lower and, thus, results in a higher approval rate. This is of particular importance in
eCommerce (card-not-present) environments, where authorization rates average in the mid-80%s and can be materially lower in certain markets.
– Reduced Interchange and Network Fees - Local acquiring allows the acquirer to classify transactions as domestic (vs. cross-border), which results
in reduced interchange (charged by issuing bank) and network fees (charged by the card networks). In “interchange + +” models (interchange +
network fees + acquirer spread), this means the ability to provide reduced costs to the merchant.
– Faster Settlement of Funds - Allows for the clearing and settlement process to be done over the local clearing solution.
– Local Merchant Accounts - With a domestic license, the merchant acquirer can offer a domestic merchant account to its clients. This means the
merchant can receive payments in the local currency and simply hold (or use) them in that market.
– Local Payment Methods and Experience – Adding more locally relevant payment methods by country and/or region, provides for an increased
choice at checkout and makes for a more familiar and local feel for the in market customer.
– Control of Data and Offering - End-to-end ownership of data (not having to be exported to a partner) allows for control of how transaction details
and card numbers are presented to issuing banks for authorization. This also means not having to wait for a local partner to begin accepting new forms
of payment (e.g., Apple Pay, Google Pay) but can control the timing and availability itself.
In markets where a payments provider does not have a directly owned acquiring license, an alternative is to rent a license from another
acquiring bank (i.e., “bin sponsor”). Generally speaking, this works just the same as owning a license, and often comes down to a decision
around the level of volumes expected vs. the required investment to achieve a license.
– Many countries require BIN sponsorship to be done with a regulated bank, while others allow for acquirers to self-sponsor
– Achieving a local acquiring license typically involves establishing a local business entity, establishing connections to the local banking system, meeting
local regulatory requirements, and ultimately, applying for a license
– Addition of an extra party (generally a local bank) can at times potentially impact control of the data, restrict merchant categories (e.g., airlines,
gaming), merchant onboarding practices, and overall authorization rates (depending on bin sponsor arrangement)
Source: Adyen, First Data, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 233
3. Roles in merchant acquiring Typical PayFac structure, where the PayFac aggregates many sub-
What is a Payment Facilitator? merchants (typically micro & SMB) under its master merchant account
Bundled fee (MDR)
Less: Interchange
PayFacs, often referred to as merchant aggregators, sign up and process Issuer Card networks
Less: Network fees
payments for small merchants as “sponsored merchants” or “sub- Less: Back-end
Interchange Network fees Processing fee
merchants” that reside under the PayFac’s merchant account.
paid out paid out = PayFac Acquiring fee
– Visa has referred to PayFac’s like Square as a single merchant when
describing merchant acceptance location numbers. PayFac
Master merchant Merchant bank
Maintains 1 master
The PayFac handles all aspects of a payments transaction on behalf of account holder
merchant account
the sub-merchant, including front/back-end merchant processing, and with merchant bank
maintains sub-merchant accounts under their master account. MDR
collected
– Facilitation allows for easy onboarding of sub-merchants, often done via an
in-house proprietary underwriting program. Sub-merchant
Sub-merchant
(marketplace
(corner-store)
– If a sub-merchant achieves > $1mm in annual volume, network rules (Visa, seller)
Mastercard) dictate that they cannot be a sub-merchant anymore and must
have their own merchant account opened. Typical ISO structure (each merchant has its own account) integrated
payments example shows merchant referral commission paid to ISV
– Merchants with volume beyond these thresholds must be onboarded under
the Independent Sales Organization (ISO) model, a more lengthy, rigorous Interchange ++ /bundled fee
Issuer Card networks Less: Interchange
application process (numerous forms, days/weeks vs. instant). Less: Network fees
Companies that become PayFacs can be grouped into three buckets: Less: Front / back end
Interchange Network fees processing fee
1. Core commerce platforms/payments companies (e.g., Square, Stripe, paid out paid out = ISO Acquiring fee
PayPal, BlueSnap, PagSeguro, SumUp), although even within this group,
Merchant Commissions paid out
both PayFac and non-PayFac models can be employed (e.g., Stripe can Software provider
acquirer (ISV)
serve as both PayFac and ISO); (ISO)
2. Integrated Software Vendors (ISVs) with verticalized SaaS offerings (e.g., to
operate a restaurant or fitness center), which have a payments aspect to MDR
collected Merchant acquirer
their software/workflow (e.g., Toast, Mindbody, Lightspeed); and Processor (back-end)
Merchant Merchant
3. Marketplaces and related technology platforms that “take payments
(grocery store) (big-box retailer) Sponsoring acquiring bank
in-house” (e.g., Etsy, Shopify, Wix, Yapstone).
(BIN sponsor)
Source: Company reports, Glenbrook Partners, Credit Suisse research Merchant bank Merchant bank 24 January 2020 234
4. Debit card network mechanics
Single and dual-message Single Message Illustration (PIN Debit)
Customer enters PIN Transaction data
Single message – Initially created for ATMs, where number – real-time communicated to
authorization
authorization & settlement are handled at the same time customer’s bank
– Generally, a Personal Identification Number (PIN) is required Debit
Merchant Issuer Bank
to complete the transaction Networks
Transaction is Bank provides
– PINLess debit allows for usage of single message but does completed instructions for routing
funds to network
not require a PIN entry (allowed for transactions under $50)
– Allows customer to take cash back at point of sale
Merchant Back-end
Dual message (e.g., credit card rails) – 2 messages, 1 Bank Processor
Authorization message is also
the clearing message
for authorization and 1 for settlement
– Signature debit transactions flow similarly to credit
transactions
Dual-Message Illustration (Signature Debit)
– Captured data gets routed over credit card rails
– Signature debit use cases: Customer uses card, Transaction data
data captured, sent to
Recurring payments (utilities, car loan, phone bill, rent) network for auth.
communicated to
customer’s bank
Pre-authorization requirements (e.g., in order to tip at a Credit
restaurant, the settlement amount has to be different than Merchant Issuer Bank
Networks
the initially authorized amount) Authorization is Bank verifies
communicated to credit line
Transaction funding differences POS
– PIN - Money is pulled directly from the bank account linked to
the debit card to fund the transaction Back-end Merchant
– Signature - Transactions are posted in 1 day to the account Processor Bank
after settlement occurs through back-end processor
Settlement occurs in a separate
second message through processor
24 January 2020 235
Source: Glenbrook Partners, Credit Suisse research
4. Debit card network mechanics
Competitive overview US general purpose purchase volume market share, showing Visa and
Mastercard credit and debit as the lion’s share of total volume
PIN debit usage has decreased in the past 5 years, while
signature debit and credit card usage has grown HSD. Private Label Credit Discover
4%
After a period of consolidation beginning in the 1980s, the 2%
majority of debit networks are owned by scaled incumbents PIN Debit
in the payments industry. 8%
V / MA Credit
– Visa – Interlink – Fiserv – Accel American Express 40%
– Mastercard – Maestro – Discover – Pulse 11%
– First Data – STAR – Worldpay - Jeanie
– FIS – NYCE V / MA Debit
35%
Network fees are lower for PIN debit transactions vs.
signature debit transactions.
US PIN debit share leaders are Visa (Interlink) and Mastercard US general purpose purchase volume ($b) suggests signature debit
(Maestro), with STAR (Fiserv/First Data) a clear number three has grown at a much faster rate (2013-2018) vs. PIN debit
Others $2.8b Signature debit volumes have
(Accel, Pulse, $2.5b expanded at an ~8% CAGR
Culiance, since 2013
SHAZAM,
Jeanie, etc.)
Interlink $1.6b $1.7b However, PIN debit has grown
27%
(Visa) at a ~1% CAGR over the
35% same time period
$0.8b
$0.6b
$0.5b $0.6b
$0.2b $0.3b
Maestro $0.1b $0.1b
STAR
(First Data) (Mastercard)
18% 20% V / MA Credit V / MA Debit American PIN Debit Private Label Discover
Express Credit
Source: Company reports, The Nilson Report (2018 Merchant volume), Mergermarket, Credit Suisse research 2013 2018 24 January 2020 236
4. Debit card network mechanics
ACH vs. debit, key differences and use cases
Aspect Traditional debit (Visa, Mastercard, PIN debit networks) ACH-based (including faster payments, ACH-like alternatives)
Fees paid to NACHA (bank-owned association that makes the operating rules), fees
Interchange fees, network fees, and merchant acquiring fees;
paid to the operator: (1) EPN by The Clearing House (TCH) and (2) FedACH by the
regulated interchange when card issued by bank with > $10b
Costs to merchant Federal Reserve, and fees paid to a third-party service provider to access ACH
assets (21bps + $0.05), or Durbin-exempt, unregulated
systems (e.g., Dovetail by Fiserv, UPP by FIS); priced on a cents per transaction
interchange when issued by smaller banks
basis (i.e., meaningfully lower cost than traditional debit)
Good funds not guaranteed – risk of insufficient funds (2-day window where banks
Immediate authorization and guarantee of good funds (debit cards
can pull back funds for insufficient funds, account closed, wrong account number,
will not authorize if funds are not in the account), although there is
Good funds etc.); even on a same-day basis, ACH payments can bounce due to lag in
a risk of chargebacks; cannot bounce, as authorization is a binding
authorization and settlement (can send more money than in account, which catches
commitment by the issuing bank per network rules
up upon settlement time)
Chargebacks & dispute process: Card network rails come with
No chargebacks & disputes: ACH-based payments cannot be reversed due to
Chargebacks and processes around chargebacks & disputes; originating bank bears
issues with a product or service delivery (merchant failure); in practice, banks at
disputes the risk when accounts are taken over; these processes generally
times reimburse their customers, but only legal recourse is small claims court
add costs to the ecosystem
Network rules protect for signature debit, Reg E protects for PIN Reg E protections only (out of scope of card network rules); the originating bank
Account take-over
debit and signature debit does assume risk when accounts are taken over (per Reg E)
Local (but evolving): ACH-based systems are (today) by definition local and often
country-specific. Examples include: NPP in Australia, FPS in the UK, RTR in
Cross-border: Global by definition, with cross-border capabilities Canada, RTP provided by TCH in the US, and the pending FedNow system
Domestic vs. Global and access to ~3.5b cards and ~25k banks connected to Visa and (potential launch in 2023/2024) in the US; that said, it is possible that over time
Mastercard modern ACH systems could become linked/interoperable for use in cross-border
payments (i.e., many are using ISO 20022 standards, making connecting various
systems more feasible over time)
Modern systems are 24/7 (e.g., RTP in the US), legacy are not; legacy ACH
Speed & availability 24/7 real-time: Card rails are always on systems use batch processing (i.e., all transactions end of day) and often operate
under bank branch-like hours
Long-standing, real-time capabilities consolidated into two known Numerous, more recently developed options; use cases typical for services that can
Other
brands (Visa, Mastercard) be turned off by the merchant (e.g., phone bill, electric bill, college tuition)
Source: Visa, Glenbrook Partners, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 237
4. Debit card network mechanics
Push vs. pull payments overview
Pull Payments – Traditional card payments where the recipient (merchant) instructs their bank to pull funds out of the consumer’s
account
– Traditional card payments are by definition debit pull payments, ACH debit pull (e.g., recurring utility bill debited from bank account)
Push Payments – Sender instructs its bank to send (push) money to the recipient’s bank
– Traditional ACH credit push (e.g., direct deposit of payroll pushed from employer’s account to employee)
– Real-Time Payments from The Clearing House are exclusively credit push, although they have a request for payment feature
– Other examples include: Visa Direct, Mastercard Send, and Zelle
– Authorization message from sender’s bank to receiver’s bank (asking permission to send vs. granting permission to pull in a typical transaction)
– Generally not reversible due to fraud or service issues (whereas pull payments can be disputed if not happy with the product or service)
Payment flows for push vs. pull payments
Push $ flow; sender’s bank bears account takeover risk
Sender’s Receiver’s
Sender Card Network Receiver
Bank Bank
Pull $ flow; initiated by the receiver (e.g., at POS)
Source: Visa, Glenbrook Partners, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 238
5. US Payments market revenue pools
Merchant discount rate components (opportunity for acquirers, networks, & issuers)
US payment card volumes are approaching $8tr in total, with the vast majority touching Visa and/or Mastercard networks.
Visa and Mastercard are not the largest revenue beneficiaries though – banks are (the card issuers themselves), with card
issuers earning interchange on each transaction equivalent to ~130bps on average (vs. Visa and Mastercard earning
network yields that total come to roughly ~26bps)
$9.0tr
$160b
Debit (signature / EFT /
$8.0tr $10.0tr Prepaid)
Private label credit cards
Credit $140b Regulated debit
Prepaid cards
$8.0tr interchange
$7.0tr EFT networks
Mastercard $6.0tr $3.7tr $120b
$6.0tr debit
$4.0tr
Credit
$4.2tr $100b Interchange
$2.0tr
$5.0tr Visa debit
$0.0tr
$80b
$4.0tr
Discover Dubrin-exempt
Exempt Debit Regulated Debit
American Express $60b debit interchange
$3.0tr $4.0tr
Mastercard Discover
credit American
$2.0tr $3.0tr $40b Express
$2.1tr
$2.0tr Card networks
$1.0tr Visa credit $20b
(V, MA)
$1.0tr
$1.2tr Merchant
$0.0tr $0.0tr acquirers
$0b
US Payments market (2019E card volumes)
Payments ecosystem members revenue (2019E)
Source: Company reports, The Nilson Report (US Purchase Volume from The Nilson Report for 2018 base, and 2019E
represents Credit Suisse estimates), The Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 239
Appendix
Framework for “at-a-glance” view of companies
Credit Suisse framework and snapshot
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of Threats (Competitive,
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside Regulatory)
V ◕ ◕ ● ◐ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ● ◕ ◕
MA ◕ ● ● ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ● ◕ ◕
ADYEN ● ◕ ◐ ● ◔ ◐ ◐ ◐ ● ◕ ◕
SQ ◕ ◔ ◕ ● ● ● ◕ ◐ ◐ ◕ ◕
PYPL ● ◕ ◕ ◕ ● ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐ ● ◐
FISV ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐ ◐ ◐
FIS ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐
GPN ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐ ◕ ● ◕ ◕ ◕
FLT ◔ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ● ◕ ◕ ◕
WEX ◐ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◕
RPAY ● ◔ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◐ ◐ ● ◕ ◕ ◐
VRRM ◔ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◐ ◐
WU ◐ ◕ ◕ ◔ ◐ ◐ ◐ ◔ ◐ ◐ ◐
IMXI ◔ ◐ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐ ◐ ◐ ◐ ◕ ◐
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 241
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
PYPL ● ◕ ◕ ◕ ● ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐ ● ◐
- When viewed as a - $6b cash (post
- 40+ partnership
customer Honey acquisition in
- Clean pure-play - 45% of revenues agreements since - Venmo's attractive
acquisition partner, Q1 2020E), $5b debt, - Non-transaction
on eCommerce, ex-US, although 2016, with the key highly-engaged Two-sided global - POS software via
suggests pricing ample room for expense base is - Any capping
particularly on about 1/4 of that early agreements >40mm Millennial payments platform iZettle (inventory
upside remains continued M&A, largely fixed (~75%), - iZettle in offline (regulation) of
mobile (Braintree, exposure is UK- coming with Visa user base and social with unrivaled scale, management,
(industry-leading share repurchase and is guided to payments and interchange serves
core PayPal, based (i.e., UK and Mastercard; a aspect (newsfeed) consisting of invoicing, staffing
conversion rates and and minority grow ~5-8% vs. software for SMB (in to lower funding
Venmo), which makes up ~11% of more recent, provides a direct ~300mm consumers tools, etc.),
~300mm users); investments (e.g., revenue growth in 12 ex-US markets) costs (a positive for
makes up >40% of total company notable partnership engagement and ~24mm expanding PayPal's
SMB eCommerce $750mm invested in the high-teens (3-5 PayPal margins)
TPV and growing revenues); all other in Paymentus platform for merchants in-store TAM
players enabled with MercadoLibre, year guidance)
~35-40% countries are < 10% (opening the bill pay merchants
tools of larger tech $500mm invested in
vertical)
players Uber)
Consumer reach - PayPal Credit - Honey (close Q1
- In addition to
- MercadoLibre extended to new offerings for both - Cross-border 2020E, $4b in cash), - Alternative
- Approaching 20% V/MA, partnerships Smart checkout - Venmo
commercial geographies and consumers (via SYF capabilities (global has potential to checkout options
of TPV from non- with large tech buttons (now re- monetization and
agreement provides contexts via in the US, on two-sided network) move up PayPal to - Transaction such as the Secure
eBay, fast growing platforms (e.g., tooled to not rely on deepening
for added exposure partnerships. In- balance sheet ex-US) suggests ability to the beginning of the expenses are Remote Commerce
eCommerce Google, Facebook), browser cookies) relationships with
to fast growth/low store (V/MA, and merchants increase price in shopping experience variable and gross (SRC) "single
marketplaces (e.g., retailers (e.g., and enables users to millennials via Pay
penetration Latin Walmart), Facebook (PayPal Business certain corridors from purely a margin trajectory button" from
Facebook, Walmart), banks pay with issuer with Venmo, Venmo
American payments (contextual Loans, PayPal over time (took a checkout button at has been/will be networks, which we
Instagram, (e.g.,. Citi, BofA, rewards points at Card (Debit and
and eCommerce commerce on Working Capital), meaningful cross- the end. iZettle down expect to be
AliExpress, Grubhub, Itau), and others PayPal's ~23mm Credit), and Instant
(also Itau Instagram), MELI benefiting from the border price in (acquired 2018, supported by
Airbnb, etc.) (e.g., FIS, América merchants Transfer
partnership in Brazil) (230mm users in Swift Financial crease in 2017) $2.2b) benefits still acquirers
Móvil)
Latin America) acquisition to come
- GoPay controlling
stake acquisition Differentiated set of
Industry leading - Opportunity to
(expected to close in capabilities for
checkout - Minority - Partnership provide consumer - Additional efforts
Q4 2019) would marketplaces - Approaching - Top line growth
conversion rate of investments (e.g., approach provides - Payout tools financial services to by large cap tech
make PayPal the (PayPal Commerce ~300mm users with drives margin
89%, on average MercadoLibre, Uber, PayPal's merchants enhanced by Under-banked (1.7b companies, namely
first non-Chinese Platform): expertise increasing - 3-5 year guidance expansion (due to
~60% higher than Acorns, Monese, with access to north Hyperwallet people globally and Amazon, but also
payments company from powering engagement makes includes ~150bps fixed non-
other digital wallets Raisin, etc.) suggest of 380mm acquisition 70mm in the US); Google, Facebook,
licensed to provide eBay, OneTouch it difficult for a growth contribution transaction costs,
and 80%+ higher potential for additional (important for Xoom money Samsung, Apple,
online payment seller sign-up, merchant to opt out from acquisitions despite large and
than all other additional consumers (150mm marketplace remittances etc. (although many
services in China. relationships with of PayPal variable transaction
payments types integration and/or Baidu users and customers) provides an inroad are partners,
Potential to be existing sellers and acceptance expenses)
(comScore study, partnering 230mm MELI users) to consumers in reducing risk)
material to longer- consumers, trusted
April 2018) emerging markets
term growth (2021 brand
and beyond)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 242
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
SQ ◕ ◔ ◕ ● ● ● ◕ ◐ ◐ ◕ ◕
- Two broad
- Incremental
buckets 1) First- - Additional
- Crucial to the margins (ex-
party commerce - "Rack rate" pricing financial services - Intensifying
- 80% of large operations of its - > 50% of adjusted investment) are in
enablement (Square increased in being added to the competitive
- ~5% of revenues sellers (and ~100% sellers and regular revenue from - Not part of the ~50%+ range,
Online Store September 2019, Cash app (consumer landscape from
International of micro merchants) - Continued new engagement drives products launched Square's strategy to making the longer
(powered by increase for a subset lending, asset incumbents
although likely to self-onboard to product innovation cross-sell (i.e., daily in past 5 years acquire customers term EBITDA margin
Weebly) and of its sellers (with management, launching similar
move higher (more Square's easy to use, (> 50% of adjusted usage and outside of Square's and seek cost target of 35-40%
Weebly; 2) those merchants insurance, etc.), products and
complete feature set intuitive platform. revenue from dependence via core payments synergies; focused reasonable
Developer Platform- that were still being along with moving up market
rolling out globally, Leading cross-sell products launched dashboard/analytics business, the on technology and (previously
related efforts with charged a 2.75% flat additional Cash card into larger
accompanied by capabilities, which in past 5 years) , CRM, inventory highest amongst its talent acquisitions communicated and
Marketplaces, rate moving to adoption merchants (FISV's
brand campaigns) also reduces management, merchant acquiring (e.g., Weebly, Zesty) potential to be
eCommerce 2.60% + $0.10 per (unregulated debit Clover, GPN's Vital,
incremental CAC payroll, business peers updated at the
enablement transaction) interchange PayPal's iZettle, etc.)
debit card, etc.) March 2020 investor
platforms, and a set monetization)
day)
of APIs and SDKs
- Weebly
- Japan business
- Installments acquisition - Seller adjusted
benefiting from - Direct relationship - When viewed as
- Developer - Unique ability to product allows meaningful in EBITDA margins of - Any further move
government with >15mm Cash "total take rate" vs.
Platform APIs and rollout and scale sellers to increase expanding on 2/3 ~30% in 2019E up into B2B payments,
incentives in - Square hardware App users makes "net transaction take
SDKs allow new products their sales by strategic priorities from -9% in 2015 with Invoices and - Any capping
digitizing payments available at 24k+ Square a two-sided rate", revenue on a
developers to use quickly (Instant offering credit (omnichannel and reflect efficient seller Square Card the first (regulation) of
(longer term, and physical retail stores network. Enhances per unit of GPV basis
Square services (and Deposit, Cash App extension at the POS international, payback periods of 3 two products in this interchange serves
ahead of the 2020 (including Apple, value for both sides: increased from 1.4%
access the full features, Square to their customers Weebly 40% of quarters; Efficient area (we expect to lower funding
Olympics), new Amazon, Best Buy, drive Cash App in 2016 to 2.0% in
ecosystem) in a Capital, etc.), (via Square Capital); customers outside payback economics more, including costs (a positive for
product rollouts, Staples, Target, and users to Square 2019E (Instant
customized way, for partially due to daily integrated into the US, learning are enabling Square AR/AP software, Square margins)
and SMBC Walmart) Sellers and reward Deposit, Square
websites, mobile use of dashboard for Square Invoices as ahead of any to extend this to 4 card issuance
distribution Cash App users for Capital, along with
apps, and in-store merchants well (larger ticket potential quarters in 2020 to potentially, etc.)
partnership (bank this (Boost) other services)
items) geographic enhance reach
branches)
expansion)
- Weebly - Automated
- 2020 guidance
acquisition & chargeback dispute
- Demonstrated by calls for EBITDA - Cash Boost
Square Online Store process (no
Square's planned margins to be down (rewards) potential
(powered by chargeback rebuttal - $1.6b cash (post
- While brand Feb. 2020 price YoY due to to turn from a cost
Weebly) aligned - Order API - 80% of large letters to author, no the ~$400mm cash
recognition may not - Third-party increase of Instant investment behind center (marketing - Local competition
with omnichannel provides integration sellers (~100% of fees to handle incoming from the
be the same as in developers through Transfer to 1.5% marketing and costs as Square and lower awareness
strategy but still a di with Postmates, micro merchants) disputes); previously sale of Caviar), $0.9b
the US, Square has the developer from 1% after additional operating funds the rewards) (relative to the US
minimis portion of DoorDash, and self-onboard given offered $250 per in convertible debt;
Net Promoter Scores platform (APIs, testing the increase expenses associated to a revenue home market) in
mix today (sellers Chowly (reducing high net promotor month in Provides room for
ranging from 60-80 SDKs, Developer before the broader with the new generator (merchant International
never have to think the "tablet farm" at score and strong chargeback continued bolt-on
in the UK, Canada, Platform) rollout; likely Oakland office (this funding of rewards markets
about where restaurants) brand protections, but M&A and minority
and Australia afforded by the could prove and paying for
customers are from, recently ended investments
value of Square's conservative given positioning within
single platform program (accretive
product ecosystem recent pricing Cash App)
across channels, to margins)
actions)
etc.)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 243
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
GPN ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐ ◕ ● ◕ ◕ ◕
- Integrated
- Additional bank JV
- Sizeable (~3.5k - 58 local/domestic - Merchant payments (~12%
- Combined partnerships, above
person) direct acquiring licenses, - Addition of - Owned software - TSYS acquisition acquiring & issuer revenue) could see
business will have - Via owned & beyond stated
- Large eCommerce salesforce, including "unrivaled" relative Consumer Solutions approach provides done purposefully processing business competitive
the majority of its software and $100mm+ revenue
& Omni business, ~3k from Global to competitors, (Netspend) provides for enhanced price as an all stock deal both tend to have pressure on ISV
revenue sourced via integrated payments synergies;
sized at ~$900mm Payments and which aids in Global for new/expanded protection, given to allow for high incremental commission
North America (~80- (integrations into previously
(approaching $1b in another ~500 from Payments' ability to opportunities in payments are often continued flexibility margins (ex- (revenue share)
85% of total ISV software challenging for
2020E, but TSYS (vs. ~2-2.5k for provide reduced payroll (synergies of delivered as part of a for investment and investments for levels (although
revenue), given both platforms), Global Global Payments
~$800mm ex- large competitors interchange (for PayCard business broader room for continued growth); Global GPN has a degree of
business had large Payments is more (acquiring only) &
network fees), with FISV and FIS); those on with existing Global business/software M&A; leverage Payments had protection given
US businesses and central to the entire TSYS (merchant
an emphasis on combined team will interchange plus Payments Payroll solution (i.e., ~2.5x pro-forma (vs. guided to ~75bps of high levels of service
meaningful business operation, business was US
SMB and multi- enable cross-selling pricing) and higher offerings), as well as payments pricing FIS at ~3.5x and FISV margin expansion and global reach);
exposure to Canada particularly in only) to form bank
national merchants of Global Payments authorization rates other B2B,B2C, & can be rolled into at ~3.9x following per year, while TSYS software-led (~10%
(~7-9% each, owned verticals JVs (formation can
& TSYS merchant for its merchant P2P payments software pricing) recent acquisitions) was expecting ~25- of revenue) is
historically) require upfront
offerings clients 75bps insulated, via
investment)
software ownership
- Future M&A - At least $300mm in - eCommerce
- Combination of - The combination - Integral to the - Xenial/SICOM - Integrated - Potential for
possibilities are cost synergies as competitors are also
merchant acquiring - With the addition of issuer (at scale) & operations of provide enterprise payments pricing enhancing the Vital
open to: 1) part of the TSYS focused on
& issuer processing - Addition of TSYS of ~820k merchant acquiring businesses customers, SaaS for QSR & food (acquiring spreads) POS & cross-selling
horizontal (along merger to be expanding local
business will allow reduces revenue location allows for the particularly in service, with front of tend to be higher it into the Global
the lines of realized by year presence (Adyen
for increased exposure to the UK, relationships from replication of the owned software house POS, mobile (can be ~2x a typical Payments/Heartland
Heartland and three (key areas pursuing mid-
authorization rates, which had been TSYS, Global benefits of owning a verticals (via ordering, back- payments business merchants, with
TSYS); 2) vertical being merchant market, Stripe
particularly within ~9% (per 2018 10-K), Payments will have debit network (via AdvancedMD, office analytics, on a like-for-like ambitions to make
software (likely business operations, expanded domestic
eCommerce/CNP and on a pro-forma ~3.3mm+ (SMB- technology) without Xenial, SICOM, loyalty, payroll, merchant size basis) the product more
share leaders in tech infrastructure, acceptance at 31
transactions (i.e., basis will be ~4-5% focused) merchants owning a branded Heartland scheduling, etc.; has given integration attractive than both
fragmented corporate cost, scale countries with plans
proprietary SCA, of total company (2.5mm Global network. This Restaurant, ACTIVE, 21 of top 40 QSR as into software (ISVs), Square and Clover;
markets, with a efficiencies, etc.), to reach 40 by end
known issuer revenue Payments pre- allows for “on-us” Gaming, education, clients (e.g., Burger albeit with potential and potential to
payments aspect); with minimal 2019, Worldpay-FIS
customers acquisition) routing (globally & universities, etc.) King, Taco Bell, pressures on ISV further reduce
and 3) geographical execution risk working on geo-
transacting) cross-border) Wendy’s) revenue shares attrition
expansion expansion)
- Have capabilities -Increasing exposure
- Global Payments - Netspend is a - Partner with 60+ - Successfully -Increased issuer
in hard-to-serve - Global Payments - Contactless card to SaaS/software- - Local operating
previously had 500+ pioneer of prepaid lenders (connected integrated 3 vertical processing clients
markets (e.g., has benefited from rollout in the US based revenue presence in ~38
global financial and the 2nd largest via APIs) to provide software via Global
Taiwan, Singapore, - Leadership attrition rates that (beginning in 2H (faster growth, countries (and 58
institution US prepaid program merchant cash acquisitions in 2017- Payments' FI
Malaysia, Brazil, position in issuer have generally been 2019, into 2020- higher margin, local/domestic
relationships (largely manager. We expect advance offerings to 2018 (ACTIVE relationships;
China, etc.) where processing in key at the low end of 2021) represents a M&A focus) acquiring licenses)
in the form of Netspend to launch merchants Network September management noted
competitors in RFP markets outside the industry range meaningful revenue produces mix-shift necessitates
merchant referrals), outside the US in (functioning similar 2017, AdvancedMD early interest from
processes are either US (e.g., # 1 share in (~10% overall, and opportunity (i.e., based margin additional oversight,
while TSYS more late 2020, with to offerings from & SICOM bank partners, likely
more limited to just Canada, UK, Ireland, at the industry low ~640mm+ accounts expansion, albeit compliance, and
than doubles this added growth from Square Capital, September 2018), ex-US (given Global
1-2 players (likely China, # 2 share in in the US vs. on file, ~50% of with a preference to regulatory
with an additional new products (e.g., PayPal Credit, etc.); increasing the mix Payments uses bank
Worldpay and Western Europe) industry averages issuer business in re-invest upside into knowledge/costs vs.
800+ (largely in the DDA, loyalty, co- lending is not on toward technology- partners in parts of
Adyen) and/or local more in the ~10- the US, ~$3-5 per future growth vs. all more focused
form of issuer brands, virtual balance sheet (i.e., enabled vs. Europe, Canada, &
acquirers (e.g., Oct. 20%+ range) contactless card) flowing into margin providers
processing) accounts) no credit risk) relationship-based Asia)
2019 Citi win) expansion
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 244
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
V ◕ ◕ ● ◐ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ● ◕ ◕
- eCommerce - By definition card - Contactless
- Visa's strong - Sourced from both - Incremental - Visa Direct "push
transactions come issuance capabilities transactions skew - Generating ~$12b - Interchange
- Of the two large distribution is in house (e.g. Visa - With the technical margins in theory in payment" expands
with meaningfully and the global lower ticket, in annual FCF regulation risk (e.g.,
networks, V has bolstered by its Direct, B2B Connect) migration in Europe the ~90-100% range, the existing rails into
higher carded rates acceptance network implying higher (2019), allowing for Australia, Europe,
greater debit leading position and acquisitions complete, Visa has although new market
and represent a enabled by yields (due to "cents consistent bolt-on and the US [debit
volume mix (~45% with the largest card (e.g. Earthport), begun to offer add- investment behind opportunities,
channel growing Visa/Mastercard per transaction" acquisition to only] have capped
for V vs. 35% for issuers in developed recent example on services (e.g. risk innovation, beyond C2B and
~4x that of enable their core data processing enhance technology interchange),
MA) and greater US markets (e.g., JPM, (June 2019) around services, loyalty acquisition of into B2B, G2C, and
traditional off-line customers (issuing fees), although we and service offerings although little
volume mix (also Bank of America). installments (in solution) to technology & P2P; Both offense
commerce (in- banks) to earn expect a meaningful to banks & credible evidence to
~45% for V vs. 35% Visa extended its beta, where issuers European clients; we services, etc. have (new payment flows
store); further, cross- money (via portion of this merchants/acquirers suggest that
for MA); said partnership with can offer expect subtle (but kept margin opened up) &
border eCommerce interchange directly, increased yield to be (e.g., Earthport, interchange
differently, V has JPM through 2029, installments to their positive) continued expansion in check defense (race
is growing ~2x that and via interest paid-away via Verifi, Payworks, regulation has
great debit and US solidifying its Visa cardholders "pricing" (net yield) (~57% 2010 vs. to scale before
of domestic, an earning on incentives to help CardinalCommerce, resulted in reduced
mix vs. MA position as the directly through increases in Europe ~mid-high 60%s modern/fast ACH
added tailwind from outstanding credit ramp contactless amongst others) network fees
leading US network merchants) today) rails gain ubiquity)
a yield perspective balances indirectly) adoption in the US
- Visa Direct is the - Visa has various in- - CyberSource (and - Numerous
- Relative to - Visa Europe yields - Both V & MA have - Visa has the ability
- Visa owns engine fueling many house incubator authorize.net) global potential/longer
Mastercard, Visa is - Visa Direct (and were initially below ramped competition to evaluate and - Visa is working on
CyberSource, an existing instant environments (e.g., eCommerce term risks to
more skewed Mastercard Send) as those of Mastercard, in faster payments potentially reduce B2B Connect, and
eCommerce payout options such "Fintech Fast-track" gateway and monitor, but none
towards developed both offense (priced although a via non-card assets expenses in the the focus right now
gateway connected as P2P (Venmo, program), where it Payworks (former materializing near-
markets with 10% to expand card-able combination of that can handle B2B event of a is building nodes in
to ~100 processors Zelle, PayPal), partners with strategic partner, medium term (e.g.,
larger mix in the US TAM into larger, commercial cross-border downturn, providing 60 countries that
in 190+ countries instant various players in recently acquired), a regulatory [PSD2],
and the majority of interchange- agreements, (Earthport acquired a degree of Visa has approvals
(recently acquired disbursements the ecosystem to provider of next-gen national schemes,
Visa Europe volume sensitive payments) additional by Visa); Earthport protection to EPS to operate in. B2B
PayWorks for in- (Square, Worldpay), streamline gateway software Alipay & WeChat
from the UK, a & defense (race to product/service will be a fit with (we note that Connect will handle
store payments and and bill payment partnerships for for in-store POS [and CUP]
primary driver of scale before sales, and Visa's B2B Connect reduced volumes in the high-value low-
will combine with (Paytm, banks in FinTechs (e.g., systems, will allow expansion, added
Visa's slower modern/fast ACH processing share (and is indicative of a downturn also volume B2B
CyberSource to Singapore), but issuing bank Visa to offer unified "super-app"
payments volume rails gain ubiquity) gains have led to a willingness to turn into reduced transactions of large
form a fully works with all on a partners, issuer acceptance platform platforms in EM,
growth in recent increasing European capture non-card incentives, another enterprises
integrated solution) white-labeled or processing services, for merchants and Amazon and other
history yields flows) balancing factor)
partnership basis program managers) acquirers BigTech efforts, etc.)
- SRC initiative aims - Tencent’s - The Earthport - We expect Visa to
- Visa and its issuer
to make the online announcement to acquisition doubles - Gross yields be an outsized
- While Mastercard partners have - Blockchain
checkout process allow international the number of ~34bps vs. net yields - Over the long beneficiary (vs.
began earlier (and is started to roll out - Visa also operates technology is a
more seamless; We card schemes to be accounts (to 3.5b) ~27bps (with ~22% term, we expect Visa Mastercard) of the
advantaged as a contactless cards in and issuer theoretical threat to
expect the merchant added to its mobile that can be reached of gross revenue - Visa offers a small to continue to contactless rollout
result) vs. Visa in the U.S., which we processing the existing 4-party
acquiring wallet for China via the Visa network paid away as dividend (which has benefit from in the US given mix
partnering with expect to drive businesses (Visa system (although a
community to inbound commerce by connecting Visa incentives); Yields averages in the operating leverage differences (45% of
FinTechs (e.g., transaction growth DPS, which provides number of
support SRC (e.g., is a positive for the to various real-time had been higher ~50bps range over as more transactions volume for Visa
European Neo and possibly be services across limitations lead us
higher conversion, card networks, payments and ACH (~29bps FY 2016) the past year and run on largely fixed- sourced in the US vs.
banks), Visa has yield accretive debit, prepaid, and to believe use cases
potential to capture along with other networks (allowing prior to the Visa grown ~20% over cost infrastructure 35% for MA, along
more recently longer term (and credit), which will be niche and
economics on super-apps it to connect directly Europe acquisition, the past 5 years) (and greater scale with a skew to large
gained ground (e.g., could compete with Mastercard does not outside core C2B
transactions leveraging the to bank accounts, which re-set total overall relative to issuers that are likely
Revolut global mobile tap-and-pay offer over the medium
otherwise lost to global networks for including those not company averages Mastercard) to be faster to re-
expansion partner) as the next form term)
alternative broader/open-loop connected to Visa in the mid-20%s issue contactless
factor for payment)
methods/wallets) acceptance network) cards)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 245
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
MA ◕ ● ● ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ● ◕ ◕
- SRC initiative aims - Early start (and - By definition card - Numerous - Contactless - Incremental
- Mastercard has
to make the online lead) vs. Visa in issuance capabilities investments to transactions skew - Generating ~$6.5b margins in theory in - Interchange
greater credit - New products & - B2B payments,
checkout process partnering with and the global support security lower ticket, in annual FCF the ~90-100% range, regulation risk (e.g.,
volume mix (~65% innovation via in- particularly around
more seamless; We FinTechs (e.g., Neo acceptance network (Ethoca, Brighterion, implying higher (2019), allowing for but investment Australia, Europe,
for MA vs. 55% for house Mastercard Track
expect the merchant banks, particularly in enabled by NuData Security), yields (due to "cents consistent bolt-on behind innovation, and the US [debit
MA) and greater developments (e.g. Business Payment
acquiring Europe/UK, issuing Visa/Mastercard innovation at the per transaction" acquisition (e.g., acquisitions (e.g., only] have capped
International Mastercard Send, System (expansion
community to cards as part of their enable their core POS (Vyze POS data processing Transfast, Vocalink, Transfast, interchange),
volume mix (also Bill Pay Exchange, beyond the trade
support SRC (e.g., digital banking or customers (issuing financing platform), fees), although we Transactis, Vyze, Nets, etc.), although little
~65% for MA vs. Mastercard Track) directory and B2B
higher conversion, other FinTech banks) to earn and additional value- expect a meaningful Brighterion, investment behind credible evidence to
55% for V) relative to and acquisitions Hub services
potential to capture offerings); although money (via added services portion of this amongst others) services, etc. have suggest that
Visa; said differently, (e.g. Ethoca, Vyze, previously offered
economics on Visa has more interchange directly, (Mastercard increased yield to be and more kept margin interchange
Mastercard has Transfast, Vocalink, under the
transactions recently gained and via interest Payment Gateway paid-away via meaningful expansion in check regulation has
greater credit and Transactis, Nets, Mastercard Track
otherwise lost to ground (e.g., earning on Services, Applied incentives to help acquisitions (e.g., (low ~50%s 2010 vs. resulted in reduced
International mix vs. etc.) brand)
alternative Revolut global outstanding credit Predictive ramp contactless Vocalink and Nets) ~mid-high 50%s network fees
Visa
methods/wallets) expansion partner) balances indirectly) Technologies) adoption in the US today)
- eCommerce - Tencent’s - Mastercard Send in - Mastercard Track - New addressable - While PSD2 is a - Numerous
- During 2019, spent - 2019-2021
transactions come announcement to the gig economy Business Payments payments volume potential threat, it is potential/longer
- Mastercard Send more than $350mm guidance calls for
with meaningfully allow international (workers preferring - Mastercard has Service goes beyond likely comes at a also an opportunity term risks to
(and Visa Direct) as for minority stakes "low-teens"
higher carded rates card schemes to be to be paid in real various in-house payments rails, reduced yield vs. in consumer monitor, but none
both offense (priced in two (at the time) revenue, EBIT
and represent a added to its mobile time); The service incubator enabling rich data current company authentication (i.e., materializing near-
to expand card-able pre-IPO companies, margins of at least
channel growing wallet for China should also environments, such exchange, a average (i.e., B2B, could provide a medium term (e.g.,
TAM into larger, i.e. Network 50%, and an EPS
~4x that of inbound commerce continue to see as its Start Path and directory of P2P, G2C), with Visa connectivity hub); regulatory [PSD2],
interchange- International & CAGR of "high-
traditional off-line is a positive for the growth in corporate Accelerate program, payments Direct a recent Mastercard can also national schemes,
sensitive payments) Jumia, and teens" (off a $6.49
commerce (in- card networks, disbursement use which allowed for preferences for example (lower yield provide fraud Alipay & WeChat
& defense (race to announced the 2018 base); Revenue
store); further, cross- along with other cases (payroll, an early "first ~210mm entities, than debit on monitoring services [and CUP]
scale before acquisition of assets growth algorithm of
border eCommerce super-apps insurance claim) - mover" advantage credit rating average, although that help FinTechs expansion, added
modern/fast ACH from Nets for PCE (+4-5%) +
is growing ~2x that leveraging the partners Mastercard with FinTechs monitoring, supplier varies by use case, and banks with "super-app"
rails gain ubiquity) ~$3.2b (largest penetration +
of domestic, an global networks for Send include Zelle, relative to Visa management, and with the majority of compliance, platforms in EM,
acquisition on services + mix +
added tailwind from broader/open-loop Google, Facebook, various compliance fees priced as cents amongst other Amazon and other
record) pricing + share
a yield perspective acceptance and others applications per transaction) Services offerings BigTech efforts, etc.)
- Identity Check (for - Mastercard's Bill
- Mastercard and its - Mastercard has the - To the extent
merchants), which - Mastercard is - Mastercard Pay Exchange allows
issuer partners have - Transfast ability to evaluate Mastercard is able to - Blockchain
passes ~200 data growing faster than extended their banks to offer a
started to roll out acquisition will help and potentially migrate clients and technology is a
elements to the Visa in developing global agreement multi-rail bill-pay - Gross yields
contactless cards in Mastercard increase - Mastercard offers a reduced expenses in credential users to theoretical threat to
issuing bank (vs. 8 markets like Latin with Citi (largest service to its ~50bps vs. net yields
the U.S., which we worldwide reach in small dividend the event of a beyond just card the existing 4-party
data elements for America and Asia; issuer of underlying ~35bps (with ~33%
expect to drive the account-to- (which has averages downturn, providing payment and card system (although a
SecureCode), these markets also Mastercard) for customers (with bills of gross revenue
transaction growth account space in the ~50bps range a degree of services (e.g. new number of
allowing improved tend to have a additional 5 years paid via ACH, card, paid away as
and possibly be (covers more than over the past year protection to EPS payment flows, new limitations lead us
issuers risk greater portion of through 2029, and real-time payments, incentives), with net
yield accretive 125 countries with a and grown ~20-30% (we note that payment services, to believe use cases
assessment cross-border will remain Citi’s etc.); currently pricing generally up
longer term (and proprietary network over the past 5 reduced volumes in beyond payment will be niche and
(resulting in more volumes and more exclusive global ~135k billers with ~3-7% over the past
could compete with consisting of direct years) a downturn also services), MA will outside core C2B
authorizations, attractive underlying partner in consumer plans to expand four years
mobile tap-and-pay integration with turn into reduced further the moat over the medium
citing +13% increase cash-to-card credit, debit and meaningfully
as the next form 300+ banks) incentives, another around its term)
in approval rates in opportunities small business cards (supported by the
factor for payment) balancing factor) ecosystem
the early days) Transactis)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 246
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
FIS ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐
- Transformative deal - Expectation for
- Direct salesforce of - Early pioneer in - Long-term, - Core bank
acquiring Worldpay ~500bps of EBITDA - Modern banking core
- Combined company 3k+ (local market integrated payments privileged relationships technology business
increases organic margin expansion over - Expansion of and ancillary
~70% of revenue US- presence), supported (bolstered by Vantiv's ~1.2k core banking drives annual wallet - Legacy FIS offerings
- Leading eCommerce growth profile from a 3-year period as an Worldpay's acquiring technology
based (FIS was ~75% by relationships with Mercury acquisition in customers in the US share gains via (e.g., core account
acquiring platform, ~4% to ~6% output of the revenue (and in particular, competitors emerging,
US, WP was ~67% 14k financial 2014), with 3k+ empowers FIS' to additional product sales processing) generally
accepting 300+ immediately, with and cost synergy eCommerce) business with potential to take
US), with FIS local institutions (including integrations, taking a capture a majority of (e.g., laying on associated with long
payment methods potential upside in the program (~$500mm into Brazil, India, and small portions of
presence in Brazil, 45 of the top 50 predominantly client wallet share and additional risk term contracts (~4-5
across, ~150 ~8-9% range (over a revenue, $400mm other EM where FIS incremental
India, and certain parts global institutions) and partnered approach supports products, digital, years) that include
countries and serving 3-year period) via operating costs, along has a local presence, share/growth,
of Asia to accelerate the ISV business (vs. hybrid partner + differentiation potential payments, billing, etc.; annual pricing
1mm+ merchants cross-sell, revenue with another $100mm relationships, although di minimis
Worldpay EM- partnerships (1k+ owned software with increased access 34 additional non-core escalators
synergies, and mix in non-operating, knowledge, etc. concern near-medium
expansion partners, 3k+ approach used by to underlying products per bank at
shifts to faster growth interest expense term
integrations) Global Payments) consumer account data FIS vs. 16 at FISV)
areas savings)
- Legacy Worldpay
- Long-term, - FIS sells core - Legacy FIS data Consolidation trend of
- Global eCommerce Merchant Solutions
privileged relationships processing to financial center consolidation small banks (negative
- Local acquiring in acquiring allows for - Legacy Worldpay's business (~15% of - Increased data (FIS
with ~1.2k core institutions, then - Leverage somewhat (~$250mm run-rate 4% CAGR, albeit with
~58 countries, serving multi-nationals - FIS Core on strong integrated FIS revenues) has issuer processing &
banking customers in upsells ancillary elevated at ~3.5x post- savings, now just ~15 overall assets and
allowing for reduced (e.g., Apple, Google, Demand allows financial payments business meaningful exposure to banking relationships)
the US combined with services/products deal, but with clear data centers vs. 53 in accounts growing),
costs (for those on Expedia) and to benefit institutions to quickly reduces churn and US big box retail (low to aid in increasing
FIS' "mass enablement" such as digital view toward getting 2015) along with potentially
interchange ++ and from merchants and cost-effectively facilitates cross-sell of yield, low growth, authorization rates
cloud-based solutions (back office back to targeted ~2.7x legacy WP/VNTV compounded by
for merchants with an consolidating launch a direct-to- additional services albeit a unit that (management expects
distribution for automation), fraud/risk after 12-18 months cost synergy efforts "barbell" pressures
entity in the foreign relationships to fewer, consumer digital bank (with similar ambitions provides meaningful ~200bps potential
outsourced customers mgmt, EFT & network (enabling future M&A ($250mm program) (large bank IT budgets
country) and improved global providers (vs. in as little as 90 days to increased software scale benefits to the increase, from mid-
facilitates cross-sell services, issuer and share buybacks) that was ahead of at one end, FinTech
authorization rates ~10+ including revenue like Square) overall platform) and 80%s to high 80%s)
efforts of ancillary processing, bill-pay, schedule at time of FIS- challenge banks at the
regional players) slower growth UK
services corporate liquidity, etc. WP deal other)
retail
- Building repositories
- In addition to each - Worldpay became the - Legacy FIS strategy - Both legacy FIS and - Modern competitors
of data (via FIS - Legacy Worldpay's - Unique loyalty
pre-merger company's first acquirer to partner - Due to the overhaul also includes WP business - Potential for a more in acquiring (Adyen,
financial institution - 80%+ of digital eCommerce acquiring redemption program
global reach, the with Amazon, adding required to divestitures of non- characterized as high meaningful Stripe, Square) and
data, along with applications delivered offering lacks direct ("loyalty-as-a-
combined co. should the Amazon Pay upgrade/switch core core business, fixed-cost, high contribution from B2B issuer processing
Worldpay existing via private cloud, consumer relationships currency"), with roots
see revenue synergies, button into its processing systems demonstrating this recurring revenue (e.g., payments over time (Marqeta) gaining
data) should enable allowing FIS to via unbranded online at gas stations, and
by cross-selling payments options (time, dollars, training discipline with the sales ~80% combined (combining Paymetric, greater scale; unlikely
differentiated guarantee availability/ checkout capabilities, recently expanded to
merchant acquiring and (prior, merchants of staff, etc.), banks of various across IFS, GFS in which was acquired by to disrupt core
eCommerce downtime of less than leading to lower yield's retail and restaurants
core processing would have had to rarely make full core solutions/geos (e.g., legacy FIS), high Vantiv [Worldpay] in business near-term,
authorization rates 15 minutes (vs. relative to acquirers (with further
businesses into directly integrate with transitions (we SunGard Public incremental margin 2017, with FIS cash but on the margins
(aiming toward ~2-5% industry standard with consumer expansion ahead via
geographies where Amazon Pay, but now estimate ~1-2% Sector, SunGard K- businesses (ex- management and takes away a portion of
better than the eComm ~24+ hours) networks (e.g., the Worldpay
clients are not can simply enable via turnover annually) 12 Education, investment for future treasury services) would-be growth
global average of PayPal, Square) merchant relationships)
overlapping Worldpay) CAPCO, Kingstar) growth) opportunities
~85%)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse estimates 24 January 2020 247
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
FISV ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐ ◐ ◐
- Long-term,
- Fiserv traditional - Guided to $900mm - More nascent, but - Modern
- First Data - Dedicated privileged - Transformative
- Underappreciated - Combined - Bank technology offerings (e.g., core in annual run-rate fast growing ISV competitors in
acquiring JVs with $500mm innovation relationships ~4.5k deal acquiring First
eCommerce company ~85% of business drives account processing) cost savings channel (via acquiring (Adyen,
large banks (e.g., investment pool bank customers in Data produces a
business, operating revenue North annual wallet share generally associated (~$700mm CardConnect & Stripe, Square) and
Citi, Wells Fargo, (funded by $900mm the US empowers platform with
with 50+ countries American-based gains via additional with long term technology and BluePay issuer processing
PNC, with BAMS in cost synergies), Fiserv to capture a unrivaled scale
with 250+ payments (FISV was ~95% product sales (e.g., contracts (~4-5 duplicative acquisitions); (Marqeta) gaining
terminating June aimed at digital majority of client within the broader
methods accepted North America, laying on additional years) that include corporate costs) and adding ~20 ISV greater scale;
2020) along with enablement, wallet share and Payments,
(including local while FDC was risk products, annual pricing $500mm in revenue partners per month, unlikely to disrupt
~1500 advanced risk supports Processors, &
license that allow for ~78%), with First digital, payments, escalators (CPI- synergies (including with $5b volumes & core business near-
referral/distribution management, differentiation FinTech segment,
reduced interchange Data having billing, etc.; 16 based and/or linked $200mm from $50mm revenue term, but on the
partners (e.g., TD eCommerce, next- potential with with pro-forma
and improved exposure to high- additional non-core to CPI, although at merchant acquiring (~100bps net take margin takes away a
Bank, SunTrust, gen merchant increased access to revenues
authorization rates growth Latam and products per bank at times negotiable distribution rate pre- portion of would-be
KeyBank, BBVA solutions, and data- underlying approaching ~$15b
all else equal) APAC regions FISV vs. 34 at FIS) alongside rest of enhancements) over commissions) as of growth
Compass, etc.) focused solutions consumer bank (vs. FIS-WP ~$13b)
contract) a 5-year period 2018 investor day opportunities
account data
- Domestic - Clover POS - Fiserv has many - Both Fiserv and - First Data - Announced its JV
- Dovetail - Leverage at ~3.9x,
acquiring in ~50 platform combining incremental "add- First Data acquiring business with BAMS would
(payments platform - Due to the with an aim toward
countries (last - Long-term, hardware, software on" services it can characterized as in Latin America has dissolve in June
for allowing banks overhaul required to returning to
disclosed at First privileged (including app-store - Clover's expansive offer banking high fixed-cost, been achieving 2020, with clients
to handle various upgrade/switch core historical levels
Data's 2016 investor relationships with populated by 3P integrated payments clients, such as risk recurring revenue, strong growth 2016 - being split
ACH, real-time, and processing systems ~2.5x ~18-24
day), allowing for ~4.5k core banking developers), Clover and business management, bill and incremental 2018, with markets according to the JV
wire-based money (time, dollars, months post close
reduced costs (for customers in the US Capital, etc.; $70b+ software ecosystem pay, wealth margin businesses such as Brazil, ownership (51% for
movement) has the training of staff, (deal all stock, but
those on facilitates cross-sell payment volume reduces churn and management, loan (ex-investment for Argentina, and First Data), noting
potential to increase etc.), banks rarely took on $17b FDC
interchange ++ and efforts of ancillary +45% in 2018 (vs. facilitates cross-sell servicing, and future growth); others recently minimal short-term
distribution more make full core debt); Share
for merchants with services (banking Square ~$85b, of additional others, allowing for although topline opening up their impacts (and
globally via First transitions (we repurchase program
an entity in the and now merchant +30%); Expanding services opportunities to growth profile has acquiring markets, reduced BAMS-
Data financial estimate ~1-2% not terminated (but
foreign country) and acquiring) digital signup via cross-sell and upsell been in the L-MSD, supported by lower specific costs), but
institution turnover annually) suspended majority
improved clover.com and its existing core reducing ability to card penetration longer term EPS
relationships of 2019)
authorization rates bank partner sites banking clients realize full benefits levels dilution
- Clover POS - Fiserv traditionally
- Argentinian - Banking
- Potential for data distribution - Combined skewed more
acquiring - Leader in P2P - First Data brings technology - Modern banking
residing within enhanced by digital company to toward smaller
opportunity enablement for the 3rd largest debit contracts (core - Both legacy Fiserv core and ancillary
Fiserv's DDA base to onboarding generate ~$3.6b in banks (community
expanded in 2019 bank customers, via - Portion of volumes network in the US account processing, and First Data technology
better inform risk initiatives in pro-forma FCF (2018 banks, credit
with initial opening both Popmoney are related to back- (STAR), which could issuer processing, business competitors
engines (i.e., addition to referral including run-rate unions) vs. FIS with
of the market, with (Fiserv-owned end processing only be combined with etc.) tend to come characterized as emerging, with
improved partners and a direct synergies), allowing greater exposure to
PRISMA exclusivity account-to-account (e.g., PayPal, Stripe, Accel (Fiserv- with termination high fixed-cost, high potential to take
authorization rates website - is for both debt pay larger banks
for Visa fully ending P2P capability) and JVs) where yields are owned) to form a fees (often triggered recurring revenue, small portions of
and reduced fraud, expected to down and (relationships with
2022 (First Data Zelle lower and pricing more formidable by consolidation, high incremental incremental
which is of contribute continued M&A 45 top 50). Potential
~44% POS share, implementations; considered to be competitor for debit i.e., ~4% CAGR for margin businesses share/growth,
particular meaningfully to (technology assets to move up-market,
but just ~15% acquired CashEdge more commoditized volumes (PIN, depository (ex-investment for although di minimis
importance in revenue synergies would be preferred, supported recent
acquiring share, a in 2012 to accelerate PINless, and institutions in the future growth) concern near-
eCommerce ($200mm+ via cross- e.g., Clover-like wins (e.g., NY
gap we expect to P2P capabilities signature) US, although still medium term
acquiring) selling into Fiserv's deals) Community Bank,
narrow) ~10k+ remain)
banking clients) $50b assets)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 248
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
FLT ◔ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ● ◕ ◕ ◕
- Credit risk exists,
but is minimal (i.e.,
- FleetCor's best-in- - Across all business
- Beyond Fuel bad debt runs in the
- Roughly 40-50% - The US makes up class distribution - Owning the units, a common - Relatively high-
expands the use - FleetCor has - Beyond fuel 6-7bps of billed
of sales come via or ~60% of revenue, (SMB segment) is a network (closed theme, regardless of degree of pricing
case of a traditional acquired 75+ initiative in the US, revenue); As
are originated from with Brazil (~16%) key differentiator, loop) makes for payment method or power by serving -Fixed costs make
fuel card (e.g., companies since already contributing purchasing
a digital channel (vs. and UK (~11%) the helping the direct contracting type, is to add SMBs with limited up about 60% of the
supplies, 2002, having shaped ~100bps of growth capabilities expand
10 years ago 100% next largest company build and and relationships software/services pricing leverage in cost structure (when
maintenance, FleetCor into the with the potential to in the core fuel card
was via a direct exposures; Brazilian scale new with accepting that help the client niche payments including corporate
materials, etc.), diversified B2B persist and/or business (“beyond
salesforce); digital business is the Tolls businesses, driving merchants (e.g., fuel control spend, markets (e.g., core costs)
while still providing payments company increase over the fuel”), focus is on
provides leads to segment (and its 24% revenue stations, supply reporting, Fuel segment >50%
analytics, cost it is today coming 4-8 quarters existing customers
salesforce "Beyond Toll") CAGR from 2010- shops, etc.) compliance, smaller fleets)
controls, etc. where they are
2018 analytics, etc.
comfortable with
creditworthiness
- Partnerships core
to strategy, with - Beyond toll - Long-tailed risk
- Built a - Sem Parar tags are Beyond Fuel - Owning the - Strategy focus
- eCommerce - High relative emphasis on - Inherently higher initiatives in Brazil related to Electronic
differentiated attached to increases client network (closed M&A around tuck-
enabled booking of exposure to fast expanding the fixed cost structure (car rental, fast food, Vehicles (EV),
corporate payments automobile and wallet share from loop) means in acquisitions, new
hotels within the growing, corporate payments allows for continued parking, gas although one where
over ~5 years with essentially "on" existing fleet FleetCor is not categories of spend,
Lodging segment underpenetrated business (e.g., margin expansion, stations), leveraging FLT could adapt
an unmatched, whenever the car is customers by subject to V/MA and additional
(recently refreshed international fuel AvidXchange, although somewhat installed base of and/or provide
comprehensive suite in transit (for use at capturing spend in rules, and allows for geographies (aim is
the brand and card markets (~33% Bill.com), cross- tempered by 5mm tag holders, management
of products gas stations, parking new areas related to their own contracts to deploy $1b per
mobile experience), of segment revenue) selling consistent M&A and building the services across
(domestic and lots, McDonald's business expenses and terms with year in M&A, further
with total segment compared to WEX opportunities, and integration and re- network mixed fleets
international AP/AR) and soon-to-be (e.g., supplies, merchants (vs. penetrating existing
contributing ~7-8% (~10% of Fleet geographic investment for effect/utility for (consolidating
on all major other fast-food maintenance, taking interchange markets or entering
of revenue segment revenue) expansion (e.g., oil organic growth existing tag holders spend, reporting,
payment rails outlets) materials, etc.) levels set by V/MA) new ones)
outsourcing and merchants analytics, etc.)
portfolios)
- FleetCor's mix - Beyond Tolls,
- Purchasing power - The natural ~200-
(less US, less OTR) - Operates as the scaling a new - Near-term (virtual
- Beyond toll ($1.4b) within 300bps of margin - Addition of
supported a more partner (card vehicle tag-based card migration
initiatives in Brazil lodging segment expansion Nvoicepay opens - Two revenue
healthy SSS result vs. processor) with payments network within Nvoicepay)
- In FleetCor's full - FleetCor's direct (car rental, fast food, allows for hotel accompanied by the door for a full- sources are sensitive
WEX (e.g., Q3 2019), many customers in in Brazil with new and longer-term
AP automation (and indirect) parking, gas discounts for ~10% organic service, full AP file to fuel prices,
in part due to Corporate use cases (fast-food, (opportunity to
efforts, the digital relationships with stations), leveraging members of the revenue growth can corporate payments discount revenue
strength in Mexico, Payments, although parking, fuel, car house all B2B assets
channel is used to customers across all installed base of network, further be higher or lower business, related to fuel
Russia, Australia, goes direct to rentals, and car under Nvoicepay)
drive traffic and set business units 5mm tag holders, bolstered by depending on M&A encompassing all (~14%) and revenue
etc. (Note: FLT vs. merchants via wash) with quick benefits from the
up appointments affords its best-in- and building the Travelliance (~25%+ (i.e., integration payments types tied to fuel spreads
WEX SSS are not like- Nvoicepay (full AP consumer adoption 2019 acquisition,
rather than closing class distribution network boost to segment costs and/or lower (virtual card, ACH, (~5%) for a
for-like, but even automation and partner interest along with ongoing
deals capabilities effect/utility for revenue, immediate margins initially vs. check, cross-border, combined exposure
absent corporate, software); creates a to participate (e.g., growth from prior
existing tag holders revenue synergy of synergies and etc.) via a cloud- to fuel of ~20%
lodging, etc., FLT degree of optical McDonald's deals (Comdata and
and merchants ~$10mm via virtual increasing margins based platform
underlying trends channel conflict approached Cambridge)
cards) longer term)
are stronger) FleetCor)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 249
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
WEX ◐ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◕
- Further expansion
- Relatively high-
- New digital fleet in the large B2B
degree of pricing - Long-tailed risk
- Online travel products corporate payments
- Contracts with 9 - Fuel card controls power by serving - Longer term related to Electronic
virtual cards - Mainly US-based - Essentially created contributing to - Longer term market (less than
of the 10 major oil and analytics crucial SMBs customers in adjusted EPS target Vehicles (EV),
business (~15% of business (i.e., less FX the virtual card contract wins revenue growth 10% of revenues
companies in the US to daily operations niche payments of +15-20% (vs. although one where
revenue), an exposure), but also market in the online (Chevron) and target is +10-15%, today) via continued
(recently won and cost avoidance markets (e.g., core revenue of +10- WEX could adapt
underlying market has business in travel industry, and gaining wide with an expectation M&A, partnerships,
Chevron from of Fleet segment Fuel segment ~50% 15%) implies a and/or provide
generally growing at Australia, Canada, has been deploying adoption from of +8-12% organic and a potential
FleetCor); More customers smaller fleets), degree of margin management
GDP+ along with New Zealand, Brazil the tech/approach customers growth (with the move further up-
recently announced (including EFS typically expansion (given services across
gains in online (beginning to lap for ~20 years with its (Clearview Snap remaining 200- market (current
Valero, which begins SecureFuel, Driver- underserved by buy backs are not a mixed fleets
penetration; leader headwinds), and OTA clients (leader analytics at 6k 700bps via focus is more SMB);
to contribute Dash, and ClearView traditional banks key component of (consolidating
in OTA virtual card within Europe in the market) customers, Driver acquisitions) potential to add
revenue Q2 2020 analytics) (i.e., some banks cash deployments) spend, reporting,
business Dash pilot with large cross-border
lacking focus or analytics, etc.)
merchant) capabilities longer
expertise)
term
- Go-to-market in - New digital fleet
- Lower relative all businesses products - Potential to
- Owning the - M&A has helped - Inherently higher
- Online dashboard exposure to fast typically involves contributing to expand card usage
network (closed to drive fuel price fixed cost structure - ~20-25% of WEX
and analytics growing, both a direct contract wins categories (MCC
- Direct relationship loop) means WEX is senility down (~35% allows for continued revenue is sensitive
available to Fleet underpenetrated approach (Chevron) and - WEX Telematics expansion), allowing
with over 28mm not subject to V/MA of our revenue non- margin expansion, to the price of fuel
solutions customers international fuel (salesforce) and a gaining wide for real-time vehicle a subset of core fuel
consumers on the rules, and allows for Fleet, ~20% although somewhat (every $0.10 move in
(ClearView Analytics card markets (~10% partnership adoption from conditions, fleet card holders to
WEX Health Cloud their own contracts impacted by fuel tempered by fuel prices impacts
& Reporting), which of Fleet segment approach, which customers performance and spend in adjacent
platform (mobile and terms with prices vs. ~70% consistent M&A revenue by about
contributed to revenue) compared necessitates a (Clearview Snap GPS tracking categories of
app and desktop) merchants (vs. revenue exposed to integration and re- $14-$15mm, or
recent success with to FleetCor (~33% of degree of proactive analytics at 6k business purchases
taking interchange fuel prices at time of investment for ~$0.20 in EPS)
Chevron and Shell Fleet segment channel customers, Driver (e.g., supplies,
levels set by V/MA) IPO/2005) organic growth
revenue) management to Dash pilot with large maintenance, etc.)
avoid conflicts merchant)
- Leverage target of - Fuel sensitivity
2.5x - 3.5x, but either creates
- Does not hedge - WEX Health Cloud willing to take above (higher fuel prices)
- Suite of HSA- - Digital distribution
currency risk, but (mobile app and -WEX has benefited - WEX Bank allows these levels for right or eliminates (lower
related online and investments in - Potential to win
acknowledges that if desktop) provides a from attrition rates for lower cost of - Product acquisition (i.e., fuel prices) high - WEX Bank adds a
mobile-based spend marketing tools fuel card portfolio
the ex-US business comprehensive that have generally capital, issuing innovation across all through a lens of incremental margin degree of regulatory
management tools supporting growth outsourcing deals
were to increase in consumer solution been at the low end capabilities, etc.; three segments diversifying away revenue (i.e., close oversight (primary
(e.g., product in Fleet business with European oil
size they could for managing of industry range WEX Bank is an supports pricing from fuel price to zero added cost regulators are Utah
eligibility check) for (particularly in companies (still
consider changing healthcare related (~3% overall, vs. Industrial Loan power sensitivity, growth, for incremental DFI and the FDIC)
underlying harder to reach managed in-house)
course (i.e., accounts and FleetCor at ~8%) Company (ILC) de-risk, or transaction, but
consumers smaller fleets)
investing in hedges) expenses technology that can interchange
reduce costs/in- impacted by fuel
source functions) price)
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 250
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
WU ◐ ◕ ◕ ◔ ◐ ◐ ◐ ◔ ◐ ◐ ◐
- Online platform - White-labeling of - Scaled platform - Competitive
- Pricing pressures
(westernunion.com) - Amazon the platform with EBITDA - We believe industry, particularly
vary by corridor -
comprises ~13% of partnership in - Ability to expand (leverage of fixed margins ~25% vs Western Union has with smaller players
and given WU's
C2C revenues. - 200 plus certain EM countries further into offering cost, compliance, mid-high teens for ample opportunity tending to be more
- ~70%+ exclusive breadth, there will
Economics countries/territories, will allow customers platform capabilities licenses, knowledge, - Leverage ~2.4x Ria & Intermex, for additional willing to discount,
agent locations always be corridors
(currently) similar to 71 of which have that normally would (leveraging scale, etc.). Western (debt/EBITDA), with although with a integrations/ select incumbents
(e.g., US, Eastern with pricing power
retail at the gross outbound not have access to compliance, Union does not sufficient cash to do relatively high fixed partnerships with gaining share on a
Europe, but not (i.e., where WU is
profit level, but capabilities, serving Amazon due to the licenses, local intend to pursue a tuck-in acquisition cost structure (~40% FinTechs, further regional basis (i.e.,
regions like Middle one of just a few
lower overall due to 20k distinct currency they knowledge, etc.), becoming a bank or potentially take fixed in nature), WU leveraging its Intermex in Mexico,
East and Russia), providers) and
marketing, corridors overall, a transact in, or the serving as a cross- itself, but partnering on additional debt would see ~100- platform (fixed ~7% in 2014 to
with agent locations others that are more
technology near ubiquitous country they live in, border arm for with banks (albeit for a larger deal 150bps margin costs) and its ~18%, now second
in 200+ countries competitive (where
infrastructure operation to pay local many 3rd party with reduced/shared expansion on ~MSD ubiquity on a global to WU), and
consumers are
(although there currency via WU platforms economics) can revenue growth (vs. basis (e.g. Sberbank, FinTechs offering
migrating to online -
should be tech cost retail locations provides access to flat to LSD in recent STC) disruptive tech &
e.g., AsiaPac)
leverage over time) an expanded TAM past) pricing
- Recently (Q2 2019) - WU partners and - Threat of past and
- White labeling - Still has some - Attractive set of
- High quality - WU Connect took meaningful - WU Way initiative integrates with ongoing litigation
- Majority of volume with universities, ability to increase local asset (licenses,
mobile applications initiative - integrate (~10-15%) price (completed in 2018) numerous impacting
is sent via North banks, NGO's, non- send-market knowledge,
extend the TAM to WU cross-border - Agent locations increases on US resulted in ~$70mm businesses operations, have a
America and the EU profits, & others to penetration (i.e., 71 infrastructure) for a
banked customers, technology into are often large domestic P2P (and in cost savings operating in past joint case
& CIS regions (~70% facilitate cross- countries outbound potential large cap
allowing for digital platforms retailers (e.g., 7-11, following revenue (although largely re- different verticals settled in 2017 for
in Q3 2019). US is border transactions - vs. 200 total); technology platform
transfers using bank allowing for P2P Walgreens, going from ~10% of invested in (NGO, Bank, $586mm (that has
the largest can take numerous Management has interested in
accounts (account- transfer via card or Albertsons, Dollar C2C in 2014 to 7% in compliance, online, universities, etc.), also spurred
outbound forms, e.g.., C2B communicated it expanding further
based), debit card, bank account, and General) providing 2018), helping to etc.); more recent and has the ability multiple class action
remittance market payment (tuition), intends to push for into financial
credit card, and allows connection frequent offset (short term) savings initiative is to increase lawsuits due to
by more than 2x C2C payment growth into services (e.g., Ant
other local-payment into social media touchpoints in high reduced volumes targeting $150mm penetration in these admission of guilt)
($71b), with Saudi (banking additional send Financial attempted
methods (although and consumer traffic retailers due to low cost (or run-rate savings verticals, and the and ongoing cases,
Arabia ($33b) as the transactions), B2B markets (although to purchase MGI at
more competitive messaging free) offerings (e.g., (including ~10% possibility to expand pose significant
second largest payment (NGO's), limited volume ~11x EBITDA in
online vs. FinTechs) platforms Venmo, Cash App, reduced headcount) into additional legal threats to
etc. opportunity) 2017)
PayPal) verticals business operations
- Pricing pressure - Regulations
- State and country- - Compliance spend
- Implementation of exists in certain - Through WU Way around money-
based licenses, has increased at a
- Greater number of dynamic pricing corridors due to - WU has not been and other cost transfer: 1) Bank
knowledge of local - Bill-pay services ~12% CAGR since
agent locations than methods (from - Multiple avenues increased availability active in M&A cutting initiatives Secrecy Act
rules & regulations, for consumers, 2012 (and doubled
the competition previous static, for end-consumer (and more scaled) recently (last two (announced at regulated by
and even banking allowing for from $100mm to
- Mobile application (550k vs. 370k for wholesale), able to interactions offerings from acquisitions were Investor Day) the FINCEN (KYC/AML);
licenses in certain handling of bill $200mm); these
install base 15mm+ MGI, <6k for IMXI); utilize customer including agent FinTech platforms $25mm or less, in company has 2) Dodd-Frank
European countries payments (e.g., costs are largely
and downloads have 10% of WU's send transaction data to locations, white- (e.g., Transferwise, 2017 and 2014), committed to regulated CFPB
(e.g., Ireland). utility, car, fixed in nature, and
grown at a ~90% agents (~55k) are adjust prices based labelled products, Remitly), but has other than the cutting overhead to (disclosures); 3)
Money transmitter mortgage, thus could
CAGR 2015-2018 located in the US; on city, location mobile application, maintained industry divestiture of two bolster industry additional
licenses can be time electricity, etc.) contribute to
Top 40 agents have density, day of the C2B payments, and leading take rates businesses in 2019 leading EBITDA requirements related
consuming and in either online, in margin upside in
been with WU for an week, time of day, bill-pay services (gross and net of (Speedpay and margins (~$150mm ID (transactions over
certain countries person, or by phone combination with
average of 20 years and customer ~5.1% and 2.8% Paymap) annual savings $3k), fraud
challenging to MSD revenue
service preference respectively), albeit going forward) prevention/
obtain growth
in part due to mix detection, etc.
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 251
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
IMXI ◔ ◐ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◐ ◐ ◐ ◐ ◕ ◐
- On-site the - EBITDA margins
- Focused on the - Launched a GPR /
remittance network - Intermex mix shift guided to ~flattish - Growth states, - Generally a
largest (~$33b in - Source of revenue payroll card in 2019,
accessed through an optically reduces over the near- where Intermex has competitive
2018 volumes vs. - Approximately generation for with distribution
- Predominantly an installed, Windows- overall profitability - Roughly neutral medium term as mix ~10% share (vs. ~25- industry, particularly
industry of ~$690b) ~6k sending agent sending agents both through the
offline, in-store based application (any mix shift away net debt position shift to lower gross 30% in more around smaller
and most profitable locations in the US, on a direct company's 32
business, (vs. a web-based from US -> Mexico with ~$94mm in margin business established, competitors tending
(~$5 gross profit per selected based on (commission levels owned store
particularly given interface); means is likely to be margin cash on balance (Africa, Canada, El stronghold states), to be more willing
order) corridor in location (high competitive, i.e., locations (ability to
the focus on Mexico less data loads per dilutive), though like- sheet and ~$96mm Salvador, Honduras, with growth rates to discount to
the industry, which concentration of ~64% of transaction offer lower fees vs.
and Guatemalan transaction (given for-like pricing in debt, providing CA/TX as send that have been ~1.5x attempt share gains
is US into Mexico. foreign born fees vs. WU ~44% of Green Dot,
markets (higher the interface is trends have been flexibility to increase states) to be offset that of the core (making
Taking market share consumers) and total revenues) and Netspend, etc. due
portion of under- local), resulting in relatively stable leverage to acquire by non-transaction stronghold states maintaining a
from incumbents in ability to provide indirect basis (driver to indirect
banked consumers) faster speeds (~10- (comments from and/or invest expense leverage (which also premium service
this corridor (~40% customer service of traffic into retail monetization via
20 seconds vs. both IMXI and WU (despite investment continue to growth integral to
of incremental location) additional Intermex
competitors > 1+ management) in new markets, GPR above market rates) maintaining share)
growth) wires)
minutes) card, etc.)
- Focused approach - Africa inbound - Any real or
- Offers online & - Does not attempt - Industry wide
- Receive - Emphasis on allows for reduced (~$9-10b volume perceived threat
mobile transfers, to gain ubiquity in - Began partnering pricing compression
capabilities in 17 "time to live" in overhead (vs. being TAM, similar to related to taxation of
although this makes terms of agent - Agent locations with employers in more concentrated
Latin American customer service, - Prior to 2012, in ~200 countries Guatemala) and remittances (i.e.,
up a di minimis locations; focused based in convenient, Q3 2019 (working to in online
countries and 4 i.e., getting a live acquired Servimex, with a larger fixed Canada outbound into Mexico and
portion of the approach provides densely populated bring workers to the transactions, which
African. Volume customer service Americana, and cost base to (~roughly the size of Guatemala) at a
business (if and for quality customer (foreign born) areas US from Mexico and typically appeal to
drivers are Mexico representative fast, Maniflo to extend maintain licenses, Texas) - both national level, along
when the experience within targeted sponsor their visas); banked customer
and Guatemala, but helping to decrease their footprint to compliance, etc. in launched during with any efforts by
demographic group (interview agents, neighborhoods, beneficial to the sets and corridors
generally focused cancellation rates additional states those markets); 2019, with Canada states to introduce
served begins to credit worthiness, with new agent employer (reduce (e.g., US -> India,
on highest volume (currently stand at (but has not made allows for additional enabling additional taxation (e.g.,
desire an online provide with faster locations driving paper check cost) where online would
corridors in any less than 1%, well any acquisitions focus and expertise inbound markets Oklahoma currently
product, Intermex technology, etc.), ~half of growth (vs. and the employee be a higher portion
region (Nigeria is below industry since) on the customer, due to its diversity has a tax, Tennessee
will have available, with agents 4x as ~half SSS) (saves check- of the mix for highly
90% of Sub-Saharan averages of ~mid- compliance, (many equally split and Georgia have
albeit comes with productive as cashing fees) skilled workers in
Africa volume) single digits %) regulations of core send geographies laws being
added CAC) industry average the US)
markets internationally) proposed)
- Targeted - Sizable amount of - Continued share - Agent startup cost - Regulations
- Mobile application - Bank partner - Interpuntos loyalty - White labelling of
approach to send capex investment - GPR / payroll card gains (e.g., synergies from around money-
only launched in white labeling program (began the platform,
locations in the US ("millions of dollars increases stickiness historically ~40- expansion / transfer: 1) Bank
July 2019 with ~4k expands reach into 2014) allows leveraging
through highly on capex for our of customer 50%+ of volume increased focus into Secrecy Act
downloads 1st four banked customers customers to earn additional capacity
dense Latin-born technology") in and relationship (i.e., growth in Mexico - Public company geographies that regulated by
months (vs. WU had (more typically users points for and expanding
population states / also maintenance of increased and Guatemala, and with equity as a have agent overlap FINCEN (KYC/AML);
1mm+ over the of online, where transacting with reach (i.e., into a
neighborhoods. In a highly operational engagement, more impressive but lower currency for M&A (both send & 2) Dodd-Frank
same period), CAC is high - but Intermex. Points can more banked
similar light, key call centers (1 in daily usage when ~30-40% YTD 2019) increases choice in receive side). On the regulated CFPB
partially explained not a concern in a be redeemed for consumer base, via
"growth" states have Mexico, 1 in used as primary supportive of the deal funding relative send side, agent (disclosures); 3)
by underbanked white-label deal); discounted fees. bank partnerships);
been identified (CA, Guatemala); card/account), in brand and potential its previous private start-up costs are additional
mix, but a trend to typically ~$2-$3 net Program members large bank partner
TX, UT, AZ, etc.) for supports ~8-second addition to the leverage with status ~$2.5k per location, requirements related
watch as per wire (not too transact 3x non- established with
targeted expansion answer time (live Interpuntos loyalty customers and/or and take 2-3 years to ID (transactions over
underbanked get dissimilar from ex- members, with 85% ~3.5mm
into highly dense service) operating program (drives agents (i.e., traffic ramp (which can be $3k), fraud
increasing access to Mexico/Guatemala of cards actively Guatemalan
foreign populated extended hours ~1/3rd of volumes) driver for retail avoided using prevention/
financial services wires) transacting customers in the US
areas in those states (until midnight) locations) existing agents) detection, etc.
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 252
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
RPAY ● ◔ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◐ ◐ ● ◕ ◕ ◐
- Back-end - Plans to grow both - Automotive loan - New vertical - Risk that ISV
- Bringing debit card
processing organically and via take rates are ~10- expansion focus partners (that make
- Focus on digital acceptance to - REPAY typically
capabilities acquired acquisition, either 15bps lower vs. around healthcare up ~50% of the
and/or ease of markets that are pays away ~11% of
- REPAY is a US -Roughly 50% of - Consumer-friendly through TriSource on additional other REPAY (where REPAY has business) push for a
interaction (e.g., dominated by net revenue to ISV
focused business REPAY's business payment channels (formerly a partner, capabilities (e.g., verticals, mostly due already gained some larger revenue share
mobile, online, text checks & ACH, with partners (ISV
(close to ~100% of comes from ISV provided by REPAY now insourced), back-end to higher principal traction, but not (i.e., paid as a
message, voice) to debit cards making commission), which
revenue pre 2019 in partnerships, where allow for an which will serve to processing acquired (i.e., car payments reported separately), percentage of net
simplify and shorten up just 12%, 40%, is meaningfully
the US), with direct the ISV (software accelerated decrease processing via TriSource), tend to be higher vs. specifically Revenue revenue, typically
the process of and 41% of payment lower than other
sales and ISV providers) integrates payment cycle (and costs (i.e., removal penetration into personal loans or Cycle Management defined as MDR less
making loan volumes within the integrated payments
relationships with REPAY payments thus, the merchant of margin paid to existing markets, or receivables (RCM) which interchange,
payments for personal loans, auto verticals, where ISV
SMB's in certain solutions into their has increased ability TriSource, largely expansion into new payments), but manages billing for network fees, &
consumers, using loans, & receivables commissions can be
niche verticals software offerings to lend more/faster) fixed cost base of verticals; TriSource volumes are healthcare providers possibly other costs)
proprietary management in the ~20-70%+ of
platform); also improves margin growing faster and practitioners; as competitors
technology verticals, net revenue range
maintains non profile by bringing (~+400 bps vs. other TAM is ~$100bn in approach ISV
respectively
REPAY client base costs in-house REPAY verticals) volumes partners over time
- REPAY's gateway is - Longer term risk
- Made four - Credit Union (CU)
its own proprietary - Entered Canada - Another roughly - Provides - REPAY fully - REPAY, over time, that some ISVs
significant vertical (recently
technology built on market in 2019, 50% of the business tokenization of underwrites each of could see increasing (mostly larger ISVs)
- Sales support team acquisitions since - Gross margin announced
the cloud, and given existing is sourced via payments, its merchants, pressure on ISV consider the PayFac
staffed to aid in the 2016 (e.g., Sigma expansion ahead as integration with Jack
provides added overlap between REPAY's direct sales transferring data operating as an commission levels model (PayFacs own
merchant ~$6mm in auto front-end Henry's Symitar
functionality for certain receivables channel. Merchants protection risk (a Independent Sales (although not more
onboarding process, loans, Paymaxx processing & bank platform), with a
merchants (e.g., merchants that were approached by the liability) away from Organization (ISO); experienced to responsibilities, and
helping to simplify ~$34mm in auto sponsor fees are focus on credit
tokenization/ already clients in the direct sales team the merchant by prefer to risk date), as merchants keep a greater share
and guide through loans, PaidSuite likely renegotiated union auto lending,
security boost, US; partnered with tend to be larger ($1- providing Payment manage in-house, in their verticals are of economics);
the merchant ~$5mm in lower, along with solving a need,
recurring billing, Visa to accelerate $5mm+ monthly Card Industry given their indirect approached with lower risk in REPAY
application and consumer TriSource related particularly in non-
account billing, debit acceptance in volume) and could Security Standards liability to the more attractive verticals given
initial set-up receivables, and leverage on back- member lending
reporting, web Canada, along with operate their own in- Council (PCI DSS) merchant bank revenue share merchant
processes TriSource ~$65mm end processing where payment
hooks, PCI DSS use of Visa Direct house software (vs. compliance for the through facilitating agreements from onboarding
in back-end collection is more
compliance, card (for instant funding) working with an ISV) merchants CNP transactions competitors complexity in
processing) difficult
vault, etc.) lending
- Proprietary - REPAY operates in - B2B payments is a - Any increased
- Tri-Source has
underwriting niche verticals in - The payments - Any mix shift new vertical of focus competition from
- Recently signed - Differentiated - REPAY has the bolstered M&A - Operating leverage
software for two countries (US, solution integrates toward ACH (vs. for REPAY, in which larger payments
partnership with payments ability to move synergy possibilities inherent in core
onboarding Canada) and is into merchants' ERP debit) could REPAY is focused on platforms (e.g., ACI
Jack Henry's Symitar technology, with a further into parallel given its back-end platform (as is
merchants currently integrated system (either home optically pressure accounting software (including
offering (allows the gateway that can be verticals, offering processing typical in the
(although final into five verticals grown via an ISV), pricing (as a partnerships (e.g., Speedpay, acquired
JKHY customers leveraged cross- the same type of capabilities (that merchant acquiring
onboarding decision (receivables, reducing complexity percentage of platforms like Sage via WU), Billing Tree,
using Symitar to vertical, and enhanced payment REPAY did not have industry, i.e., high
made by acquiring personal loans, and for merchants volumes) given only Intacct) and on A/R Global Payments,
access/use RPAY in software additions services (with previously); incremental
bank partner, given auto loans, and (integrated into di minimis "cents (payments and others) - which
a more seamless, specifically tailored potential additions ~$50mm in cash margins), which
REPAY operates as more recently loan/deal per transaction" fees acceptance); with has been historically
integrated way), by vertical to meet targeted in and ~$200mm in forms a base that
an ISO, not a Healthcare and B2B) management earned when first steps to lower given larger
targeting expansion industry specific healthcare, credit debt capacity to can be modified to
PayFac), along with vs. Global Payments systems, reduced customers pay via expansion kick- players typically do
to the Credit Union needs for merchants union auto loans, pursue smaller fit clients specific
monitoring for early operating in ~70 manual check- ACH (currently ~1- started by the recent not process
vertical and ISV partners and B2B payments) acquisition targets needs
indications of verticals and ~100+ cashing, etc.) 2% of revenue) acquisition of APS payments for
in the near term
financial difficulties countries for $60mm) lending merchants
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 253
Growth & Share Gains Differentiation Financial Additional Factors
Threats
eCommerce & Geographic Mix & Partnerships & Proximity to Benfitting from Emerging Areas of
Product & Innovation Additional Services Pricing Power Operating Leverage (Competitive,
Software exposure Scale Distribution Customer M&A/Cash Upside
Regulatory)
VRRM ◔ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◕ ◕ ◐ ◐ ◐
- Only nationwide - M&A has been
- Core tolling - Lower margin - Downward
- While rental cars provider for the core (Sunshine for title &
product in and of - Deeply integrated - Title and (~35-40%, relative to - Tolling in Europe, pressure/sentiment
are commonly - Business is - Unlikely that other tolling product (i.e., registration) and will
itself is an into the operations registration services Commercial at with the EPC and around red light
booked online (53% predominantly US, competitors (none meaningful barriers be used to provide
innovation past the of tolling authorities provided to existing 60%+) Government Pagatelia cameras (e.g., Texas,
in the US, 44% in outside the of the are yet to exist on a to entry given added services to
traditional and core RAC RAC and FMC business has a acquisitions overall Miami recent
Europe), the add-on recently acquired nationwide basis - decade long efforts existing customers,
processes, and customers (in terms customers (through higher fixed cost (tolling & violations revenue headwinds);
purchase of the EPC and Pagatelia with a fully to integrate with in part due to an
required (requires) of infrastructure, acquisition of structure (e.g., in Europe) 21 states have photo
tolling product is businesses in Europe outsourced various state-based "ask" from these
detailed, one-by- program Sunshine) which people costs related representing a enforcement vs.
largely done in- (we expect European management tolling authorities), customers, along
one, working with management, allows bulk to analyzing camera $350mm revenue upside around
person at the rental business to grow program for RAC) but customer with other deals that
and integrating to employee training, processing of data, incidence TAM opportunity school zone speed
car location (not a over time as tolling would be able to do acquisition is add optionality
various tolling customer service, registration on a reports, etc.); (vs. $440mm of 2019 (e.g., Georgia, NYC)
discrete add-on business begins to the one-by-one provided by RACs (smart tech related
authorities billing & fully outsourced currently working revenue for VRMM and work zone
option on most monetize) legwork required (car rentals), so to connected cars,
(meaningful barrier reconciliation, etc.) basis against VRRM given as a whole) speeding (e.g.,
rental car websites) pricing upside is autonomous
to entry) Texas business loss Pennsylvania)
capped to an extent driving, etc.)
- Government - Peasy consumer - Redflex
- Acts as a partner in - Higher mix of
- Long term - Peasy example by Solutions segment - Leverage at ~2.9x tolling, mobile app- competitor in red
helping government variable costs (lower
- Within Europe, contacts with the innovating off the includes the - Revenue (vs. no formal based coverage light business
and law fixed costs) in the
- To the extent the France, Spain, and three large RAC core tolling platform installation of generator for target), but a across most toll (Government
enforcement clients high margin (60%+
Peasy system gains Portugal make up companies in the US (leveraging the cameras for any partners in both combination of roads in the US segment) plans to
promote public EBITDA margin)
traction, this is a the bulk of the (Avis Budget Group, assets built for the camera-programs businesses, i.e., RAC EBITDA growth and (opportunity to add transition
safety (e.g., in Commercial
mobile-first opportunity, and are Enterprise, Hertz), RAC and FMC (either traditional earn a revenue share debt pay down white labeled efforts/assets from
school zones, at bus business, although
platform that can be all operated by a although this brings customer base, and where VRRM owns from deploying should bring debt additional services red light cameras to
stops, in work could be somewhat
used both in mobile single tolling meaningful repurposing the the camera, or in VRMM tolling down below to the app, and also traffic congestion
zones), with pressured (or at least
phones or in other authority located in customer technology and New York where products and covenant at 3.2x to white label the (provides a near-
potential for margin expansion
mobile OS (e.g., France (France is the concentration connectivity to VRRM actually sells - government/law (i.e., must pay 25% core Peasy service term share gain
additional limited) due to
OEM in-dash OS) single largest tolling (~80%+ of tolling authorities in product revenue - enforcement of Adj. FCF if above into 3rd party apps - opportunity in red
surveillance camera investment required
country in Europe) Commercial the form of a the camera, but still citations 3.2x, 50% if leverage e.g. OEMs light business,
usage (e.g., for to build a business
revenues) consumer product) handles the is above 3.7x) infotainment although a negative
detectives) in Europe
installation) systems) market signal)
- After acquiring - Aligned with - Recent strength - Leveraging a - Highway tolling is
their title & government clients' has been a decade of "heavy - Congestion regulated on a state
- Additional
registration business - Adapting focus, safety goal, with a combination of lifting" for the core pricing (more level, and certain
business such as
in 2016 with more of an combination of volume (i.e., - Recently hired US business, now common in Europe), states will never
- Additional - Agreed to a ATS Live (real-time
(streamlining emphasis on fixed (dollars per number of billable Mike McMillin as VP beginning to add and likely becoming approve expansion
European upside partnership with visual intelligence
vehicle registration "purpose-built month per camera, days, number of of Corporate focus on bolt-on a service that VRRM of tolling (negative
would come from a Arrive (branded and and post incidence
and tracking for speed enforcement" regardless of tolling activities) vs. Development and M&A (hiring of VP will be able to sentiment, not
second leg of tolling white-label tool for analysis for law
customers - with specific use activity) and variable price / mix shift (e.g. Strategy to build out of Corporate support (more of a enough volume to
& violations parking, i.e., enforcement) and
including RACs), cases such as school (revenue share per shift to leisure, over a larger and more Development and ~5-10 year generate $).
penetration (i.e., identifying, ATS Street Safe
software zone speeding, bus citation or dollar corporate travel formal acquisition Strategy), new opportunity); US Expansion of toll
into the Nordic booking, paying for (handheld speeding
integrations into the stop arm cameras, amount per citation) driving increases) funnel and markets (Europe), opportunities in roads or building
countries) parking spots) cameras equipped
DMVs themselves and work zone contracts; uses data with wholesale screening process and other new Philadelphia, NYC, new toll roads can
with mobile citation
were required for speed enforcement to model the pricing done on a areas/call options Washington DC, and take years and is
issuance)
matching cars to variable contracts to longer term (Peasy, ATS Live, others subject to govt
registrations maturity contractual basis ATS Street Safe, etc.) bureaucracy
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 254
1. Credit Suisse Equity Strategy
US recession indicators
Start of Yield Housing Credit
Recession Curve Mfg. Inflation Jobs Activity Perform Earnings
Nov-73 --
Jan-80 --
Jul-81 --
Jul-90
Mar-01
Dec-07
Present
Key: Recessionary Expansionary Neutral
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research, CS Equity Strategy 24 January 2020 255
A collection of noteworthy insights and callouts
Industry and company-specific items that stand out
Item Callout of note
Square guided margins down ~200bps YoY (like-for-like ex-Caviar) due to incremental marketing spend (~$37.5m via advertising, sales personnel,
hardware discounts) and operational expense associated with the new Oakland office (~$50mm). On February 7th, Square pricing for Instant Deposit
1
(Instant Transfer) for sellers will increase by 50bps. On $20b in volumes (aligned with our estimate), this change alone would equate to ~$100mm in
high margin revenue.
Stripe has become a much more meaningful competitor, for both SMB and larger multi-nationals (now ~40 countries of local acquiring, 25+ unique
forms of payment acceptance [aiming toward 50 in 2020], 100+ payout countries by 2020). Payments volume has reached “hundreds of billions”,
headcount is at ~2.5k, and valuation most recently $35b – all indicative of a more scaled competitor. Our industry discussions suggest that Stripe has
2
been appearing in and winning more RFPs, armed with its more fulsome global capabilities, ease of integration, and access via a single API. Innovation
cadence resulting in numerous new offerings (e.g., Stripe Issuing, Stripe Corporate Cards, chargeback protection, Stripe Capital, Stripe Terminal for
omnichannel merchants, etc.). Leading marketplaces offering in Stripe Connect.
WEX called out ~550bps of revenue growth benefit to the Fleet segment from its Chevron and Shell wins during Q2 2019, with the programs ramping
3 more fully in Q3 2019 (approaching their ~$60-70mm annual run-rate). At ~$15-17mm per quarter, these two programs are driving ~600-700bps of
growth (for a segment growing high-single digits). This laps in Q2 2020, and the Valero contract will make up for a portion of this (~200bps worth).
Global Payments has local acquiring capabilities in 58 countries, with on the ground local expertise (in-store acquiring) in 33 countries (which we expect
to head toward 38 countries over the medium term) – this serves as a competitive advantage in winning the business of multi-nationals (e.g., recently
awarded Citi contract). Worldpay has similar local acquiring capabilities from an eCommerce perspective, but currently process in-store for domestic
4
merchants in a more limited number of countries (US, UK, Canada, Brazil, and a few other European markets). We expect Worldpay to meaningfully
expand its in-store acquiring presence globally, a revenue synergy not included in stated targets (meaningful given ~90% of commerce remains in-
store).
Cash App’s average revenue per user (ARPU) is at least ~3x higher than Venmo’s despite having around ~80% overlap in monetization sources (e.g.,
card interchange and instant transfer using Visa Direct or Mastercard Send). In our view, this clearly demonstrates that Cash App’s users are using the
app more as a banking alternative vs. ~60-65% of Venmo’s users only currently only using the App for P2P (non-monetized), aligned with Cash App’s
feature set (e.g., direct deposit). In our view, this is largely because of PayPal’s dependence on banks for gaining share in their large global eCommerce
5 TAM and the conflict of interest of turning Venmo into a competing Neobank. We also learned the gross margin on push payments is very high for both
services at current prices (1.5% of Cash App and 1% for Venmo), likely in the 60-80% range depending on the transaction size. This is supported by
PayPal mentioning that their version of Instant Deposit for P2P yielded a “nice margin” at a $0.25 fixed fee.
24 January 2020 256
Source: FactSet, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Credit Suisse research
What do we like in a payments stock?
Large TAM + share gains/mix + unit economics + “call options”
We prefer companies that show We do not prefer companies with
Aforementioned sector-specific factors such as meaningful exposure Lesser exposure or upside related to software and/or eCommerce-
and/or best-in-class capabilities in Software-led payments, based growth
eCommerce payments, and/or SMB exposure
Decreasing unit or volume share metrics, either currently or expected
Large total addressable markets (of which almost all payments over the medium term (either due to increasing competition, elevated
companies have, by definition) customer attrition, or a less relevant offering vs. alternatives)
Unit or volume share gains, either currently or expected over the near Deteriorating unit economics, either due to pricing pressure or an
to medium term (either due to lack of competition or a more elevated need to invest in customer acquisition, particularly when
attractive/sticky offering relative to competitors) competitors with willfully lower margins are willing to drive up CAC in
key channels
Unit economics, either via stable pricing (and high incremental
margins) or mildly reduced pricing (i.e., tiered volume discounts) Lack of new business and/or product launch cadence (i.e., lower
successfully driving growth levels of innovation)
“Call options” or areas of upside not properly valued or understood by Less consistency in meeting targets and expectations
the market (e.g., new business, new product launch, partnership
potential) Valuation that appears stretched relative to expectations for growth
persistence
Management teams with strong track records of meeting and/or
exceeding guidance and expectations
Valuation that is reasonable on a growth-persistence-adjusted basis
(typically expressed by a ~2- to 3-year forward CAGRs)
Source: Credit Suisse research 24 January 2020 257
Credit Suisse Payments Innovation Event Series
Upcoming events
Date Event and Description
February 7th Neocova CEO & Co-founder Conference Call – next-gen core banking platform (first AI-based, API driven platform designed specifically to support banks and
credit unions)
February 10th Brad Greene (former Visa, former MindBody, experience overseeing merchant acquirer RFPs, etc.) Dinner – San Francisco – discussion ranging from
the intersection of payments + software, merchant acquiring, and the card networks (night before Visa’s investor day) – co-hosted with Moshe Orenbuch, Credit
Suisse Consumer Specialty Finance Analyst
March 13th Glenbrook Partners Expert Conference Call - “Demystifying Faster Payments” – discussion around Real Time Payments by The Clearning House,
traditional ACH, debit cards, use cases, and economics – co-hosted with Moshe Orenbuch, Credit Suisse Consumer Specialty Finance Analyst
TBD Finix Payments dinner – San Francisco - platform reducing time & costs for SaaS businesses, ISVs, and marketplaces bringing payments in-house – i.e., ISV
transition to Payment Facilitator
March 24th PayFi CEO Dinner (including former member of The Federal Reserve Faster Payments Task Force) – New York – provides processors, banks, & mobile
providers the ability to make instant or real-time payments between accounts - co-hosted with Moshe Orenbuch, Credit Suisse Consumer Specialty Finance
Analyst
March 26th Payrix CEO dinner – New York – technology platform for ISVs and Payment Facilitators – i.e., ISV transition to Payments Facilitator - co-hosted with Brad
Zelnick, Credit Suisse Software Analyst
April 3rd Paragon Payments CEO Conference Call – discussion on trends in the integrated payments/merchant acquiring market, competition, etc.; CEO founded and
sold Element to Vantiv in 2013
TBD Ingo Money CEO Dinner – New York - Ingo Money enables businesses, banks, and government agencies to instantly disburse safe-to-spend funds to almost
any debit, credit or online wallet account (~4.5b accounts). INGO is a SaaS platform that employs a multi-rail approach, including its own proprietary/direct
connections into networks along with numerous other rails and/or partners to reach accounts (Visa Direct, Mastercard Send, STAR, Pulse, PayPal, American
Express, Amazon, Real-time Payments by The Clearing House, Zelle, ACH, etc.), with 26 different options in total - co-hosted with Moshe Orenbuch, Credit
Suisse Consumer Specialty Finance Analyst
May 6th 3rd Annual Credit Suisse FinTech Conference – New York - co-hosted with Moshe Orenbuch, Credit Suisse Consumer Specialty Finance Analyst
November 30th 24th Annual Credit Suisse Technology Conference - Arizona
– December 3rd
24 January 2020 258
Source: Company reports, Credit Suisse
Companies Mentioned (Price as of 17-Jan-2020) Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is:
ACI Worldwide Inc (ACIW.OQ, $37.3)
Adyen (ADYEN.AS, €777.8)
Amazon com Inc. (AMZN.OQ, $1864.72) Global Ratings Distribution
Bank of America Corp. (BAC.N, $34.71)
Bill.Com Hldg (BILL.N, $43.7)
Bottomline Tech (EPAY.OQ, $54.05)
Rating Versus universe (%) Of which banking clients (%)
Citigroup Inc. (C.N, $81.12) Outperform/Buy* 47% (32% banking clients)
EVO Payments (EVOP.OQ, $28.385)
Euronet Worldwid (EEFT.OQ, $164.31) Neutral/Hold* 38% (27% banking clients)
Facebook Inc. (FB.OQ, $222.14) Underperform/Sell* 13% (22% banking clients)
Fidelity National Information Services Inc (FIS.N, $147.09) Restricted 2%
Fiserv (FISV.OQ, $120.68)
FleetCor Technologies, Inc. (FLT.N, $310.04) *For purposes of the NYSE and FINRA ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, a nd Underperform most closely correspond
Global Payments (GPN.N, $198.62) to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.)
Green Dot Corporation (GDOT.N, $26.4) An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdings, and other indivi dual factors.
International Money Express (IMXI.OQ, $12.26)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM.N, $138.2)
Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY.OQ, $149.47) Important Global Disclosures
Macy's Inc. (M.N, $17.57)
MasterCard Inc. (MA.N, $323.66) Credit Suisse’s research reports are made available to clients through our proprietary research portal on CS PLUS. Credit Suisse research products
MoneyGram International Inc (MGI.OQ, $2.65) may also be made available through third-party vendors or alternate electronic means as a convenience. Certain research products are only made
PayPal Hldg (PYPL.OQ, $116.04)
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Visa Inc. (V.N, $204.7)
WEX (WEX.N, $225.89) Credit Suisse’s policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market
Walmart Inc. (WMT.N, $114.96)
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC.N, $49.18) that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein.
Western Union (WU.N, $27.77)
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Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names
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Credit Suisse currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as investment banking client(s): FISV.OQ, RPAY.OQ, IMXI.OQ, VRRM.OQ,
Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. WU.N, FIS.N, AMZN.OQ, JPM.N, C.N, WFC.N
*Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which
consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutra ls the less attractive, and
Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (FISV.OQ, RPAY.OQ, IMXI.OQ, VRRM.OQ, WU.N, FIS.N, AMZN.OQ,
Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European (excluding Turkey) ratings are based on a JPM.N, C.N, WFC.N) within the past 12 months.
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- S&P BSE Sensex Index); prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and
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(ETR) calculation includes 12-month rolling dividend yield. An Outperform rating is assigned where an ETR is greater th an or equal to 7.5%; Underperform where an WFC.N) within the past 12 months.
ETR less than or equal to 5%. A Neutral may be assigned where the ETR is between -5% and 15%. The overlapping rating range allows analysts to assign a rating that
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15% and 7.5%, which was in operation from 7 July 2011. IMXI.OQ, VRRM.OQ, WU.N, FIS.N, AMZN.OQ, JPM.N, C.N, WFC.N
Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (PYPL.OQ, FISV.OQ,
including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other RPAY.OQ, VRRM.OQ, WU.N, FIS.N, FLT.N, GPN.N, WEX.N, AMZN.OQ, JPM.N, C.N, WFC.N) within the next 3 months.
circumstances.
Credit Suisse currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following issuer(s) as client(s), and the services provided were non-investment-
Not Rated (NR) : Credit Suisse Equity Research does not have an investment rating or view on the stock or any other securities related to the company banking, securities-related: WU.N, FIS.N, AMZN.OQ, JPM.N, C.N, WFC.N
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Credit Suisse or a member of the Credit Suisse Group is a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of the following subject issuer(s):
Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24
AMZN.OQ, C.N, FB.OQ, FIS.N, FISV.OQ, FLT.N, GPN.N, IMXI.OQ, JPM.N, MA.N, PYPL.OQ, RPAY.OQ, SQ.N, VRRM.OQ, V.N, WEX.N, WFC.N,
months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward.
WU.N
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