Congressional Research Service IN11628.1 (Estimated “Direct Payments” by State Under the House and Senate Versions of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (H.R. 1319))
Summary
A Congressional Research Service Insight, IN11628, dated March 5, 2021, estimating direct payments by state under the House and Senate versions of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (H.R. 1319). It states that the House passed the bill on February 27, 2021, that section 9601 would create a third round of direct payments, and that on March 4, 2021 Senator Schumer proposed S.Amdt. 891, which would narrow the income ranges over which the payments phase out. Under both versions, households could receive up to $1,400 for each eligible adult ($2,800 for most married couples) plus $1,400 for each dependent. Under the House-passed version, payments would phase out between $75,000 and $100,000 for single filers and between $112,500 and $150,000 for heads of household.
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INSIGHTi
Estimated “Direct Payments” by State Under
the House and Senate Versions of the
American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (H.R. 1319)
March 5, 2021
On February 27, 2021, the House passed the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA, H.R. 1319).
Section 9601 of that bill would create a third round of direct payments (also referred to as economic
impact payments or stimulus checks). On March 4, 2021, Senator Schumer proposed S.Amdt. 891 to H.R.
1319 (hereinafter referred to as “the Senate amendment”), which would narrow the income ranges over
which the direct payments are phased out. This Insight compares the effects of the shortened phaseout
ranges in the Senate amendment to the phaseout ranges included in the House-passed version of H.R.
1319.
In this Insight, a household is defined as all individuals included on a federal income tax return. Under
both the House-passed version of H.R. 1319 and the Senate amendment, households could receive a
maximum of
$1,400 for each eligible adult individual ($2,800 in the case of most married couples),
plus
an additional $1,400 for each dependent as defined for tax purposes.
The House-passed version of the bill would phase out the payments for households with income in given
ranges. Households with incomes exceeding these ranges would be ineligible to receive a payment. Under
the House-passed version of H.R. 1319, the phaseout ranges would be as follows:
$75,000 to $100,000 for single filers,
$112,500 to $150,000 for head of household filers, and
$150,000 to $200,000 for married joint filers.
The Senate amendment would narrow the income ranges over which the payments would phase out.
Under the Senate amendment, the phaseout ranges would be as follows:
$75,000 to $80,000 for single filers,
$112,500 to $120,000 for head of household filers, and
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IN11628
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$150,000 to $160,000 for married joint filers.
Both the House-passed version of H.R. 1319 and the Senate amendment would phase out the payment
amounts proportionally (or “ratably”) in relation to the amount of a household’s income within the
phaseout range. Due to the narrower phaseout ranges, fewer households would be eligible to receive a
direct payment under the Senate amendment than the House-passed version.
CRS estimates that under the House-passed version of H.R. 1319, approximately 152.9 million
households (out of a total of 166.1 million households in the United States) would be eligible to receive a
total of $394 billion in direct payments. Under the Senate amendment, CRS estimates that approximately
145.5 million households would be eligible to receive a total of $380 billion in direct payments. Table 1
presents these estimates by state.
Table 1. Estimated Eligibility for a Proposed Third Direct Payment, by State
Dollars in thousands
House-Passed Version of Senate Amendment to Difference Between House
H.R. 1319 H.R. 1319 and Senate Versions
Number of Aggregate Number of Aggregate Number of Aggregate
Households Total of Households Total of Households Total of
Receiving a Payments Receiving a Payments Receiving a Payments
State Payment (thousands) Payment (thousands) Payment (thousands)
Alabama 2,307,184 $6,075,380 2,225,966 $5,912,647 81,218 $162,733
Alaska 319,462 $885,754 297,440 $847,315 22,022 $38,440
Arizona 3,307,739 $8,722,874 3,166,937 $8,471,635 140,802 $251,239
Arkansas 1,426,980 $3,788,341 1,381,715 $3,693,877 45,266 $94,464
California 18,007,433 $47,032,680 17,030,537 $45,245,424 976,896 $1,787,256
Colorado 2,673,375 $6,654,986 2,492,806 $6,354,081 180,569 $300,905
Connecticut 1,691,912 $4,164,154 1,561,605 $3,932,063 130,307 $232,092
Delaware 489,020 $1,177,504 466,105 $1,133,329 22,915 $44,175
District of Columbia 361,230 $704,900 325,339 $663,331 35,891 $41,569
Florida 10,434,594 $25,917,820 10,050,121 $25,186,699 384,473 $731,120
Georgia 4,840,794 $12,833,802 4,629,178 $12,413,266 211,616 $420,536
Hawaii 676,384 $1,726,110 642,143 $1,660,746 34,241 $65,363
Idaho 761,616 $2,166,736 734,604 $2,111,168 27,012 $55,568
Illinois 5,901,274 $14,976,996 5,560,063 $14,344,124 341,210 $632,873
Indiana 3,143,686 $8,383,536 3,013,560 $8,104,439 130,126 $279,097
Iowa 1,482,964 $3,917,328 1,414,893 $3,776,146 68,070 $141,182
Kansas 1,349,856 $3,516,540 1,286,528 $3,386,559 63,329 $129,981
Kentucky 2,155,461 $5,668,389 2,065,798 $5,501,097 89,663 $167,292
Louisiana 2,264,159 $5,811,487 2,189,021 $5,665,454 75,139 $146,034
Maine 686,175 $1,704,211 659,989 $1,650,211 26,185 $54,000
Maryland 2,727,672 $6,617,686 2,516,312 $6,256,440 211,360 $361,246
Massachusetts 3,343,811 $7,784,598 3,108,170 $7,366,438 235,640 $418,161
Congressional Research Service 3
House-Passed Version of Senate Amendment to Difference Between House
H.R. 1319 H.R. 1319 and Senate Versions
Number of Aggregate Number of Aggregate Number of Aggregate
Households Total of Households Total of Households Total of
Receiving a Payments Receiving a Payments Receiving a Payments
State Payment (thousands) Payment (thousands) Payment (thousands)
Michigan 4,840,418 $12,104,068 4,622,706 $11,722,475 217,712 $381,593
Minnesota 2,578,735 $6,659,716 2,420,333 $6,331,264 158,403 $328,452
Mississippi 1,434,947 $3,833,330 1,399,455 $3,761,854 35,492 $71,477
Missouri 2,863,938 $7,501,545 2,735,611 $7,251,562 128,328 $249,983
Montana 512,507 $1,318,388 491,225 $1,275,668 21,282 $42,719
Nebraska 885,087 $2,364,448 843,104 $2,278,711 41,984 $85,738
Nevada 1,472,921 $3,823,369 1,426,531 $3,719,497 46,390 $103,873
New Hampshire 637,723 $1,535,633 597,274 $1,457,134 40,449 $78,498
New Jersey 3,970,639 $10,164,989 3,691,546 $9,618,195 279,093 $546,794
New Mexico 1,022,549 $2,646,889 989,431 $2,583,471 33,119 $63,418
New York 9,495,311 $23,235,163 8,968,004 $22,386,444 527,307 $848,718
North Carolina 4,891,572 $12,695,860 4,673,848 $12,330,532 217,723 $365,328
North Dakota 367,944 $962,551 351,652 $931,557 16,292 $30,994
Ohio 5,638,336 $14,476,548 5,373,432 $13,961,598 264,905 $514,950
Oklahoma 1,809,893 $5,007,780 1,742,950 $4,878,388 66,943 $129,392
Oregon 2,042,262 $5,175,572 1,932,081 $4,986,382 110,181 $189,191
Pennsylvania 6,187,751 $15,480,849 5,876,366 $14,883,553 311,385 $597,296
Rhode Island 529,393 $1,270,325 497,590 $1,217,312 31,803 $53,013
South Carolina 2,417,867 $6,190,530 2,335,098 $6,046,296 82,769 $144,234
South Dakota 411,892 $1,074,909 389,712 $1,034,286 22,180 $40,623
Tennessee 3,260,040 $8,366,563 3,162,228 $8,170,429 97,812 $196,134
Texas 12,441,832 $34,237,251 11,873,736 $33,134,439 568,096 $1,102,811
Utah 1,256,134 $3,919,291 1,191,708 $3,764,534 64,426 $154,757
Vermont 313,619 $764,325 295,651 $731,749 17,968 $32,576
Virginia 3,840,885 $9,772,254 3,611,098 $9,323,938 229,787 $448,316
Washington 3,374,198 $8,791,815 3,180,298 $8,435,046 193,900 $356,770
West Virginia 923,102 $2,336,866 891,039 $2,275,091 32,062 $61,775
Wisconsin 2,839,872 $7,217,337 2,722,268 $6,981,675 117,605 $235,662
Wyoming 271,898 $731,820 260,222 $710,257 11,676 $21,563
Total 152,886,047 $393,891,796 145,365,025 $379,859,827 7,521,021 $14,031,969
Source: Congressional Research Service (CRS) analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the TRIM3
microsimulation model. TRIM3 is funded by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and maintained at the
Urban Institute.
Congressional Research Service 4
Notes: Data presented in this table reflect three-year averages. Further discussion of the use of a three-year average is
available in the “Data and Methods” section. Additional information on the TRIM3 model is available in Appendix B of CRS
Report R45971, The Impact of the Federal Income Tax Code on Poverty.
Limitations
Due to data limitations, the estimates in Table 1 do not account for some features of the direct payment
included in either version of H.R. 1319. For example, the estimates provided in Table 1 cover only the 50
states and the District of Columbia. Although residents of U.S. territories would be eligible for the direct
payments, the data used in this analysis do not include U.S. territories. As a result, CRS is not able to
estimate territorial residents’ eligibility for a direct payment
Additionally, the data used to create these estimates do not include information on identification numbers
used when a household files their income tax return. Language in H.R. 1319 (both versions) requires
individuals to provide a Social Security Number (SSN) in order to be eligible for a direct payment, and
any dependents’ SSN in order to receive the additional $1,400 per-dependent amount. Because the
estimates in Table 1 do not account for whether the individuals listed on a taxpayer’s income tax return
would provide an SSN, they may somewhat overestimate the true number and amount of direct payments.
Other limitations of this analysis may lead the estimates in Table 1 to somewhat underestimate the true
number and amount of payments. More information on this potential overestimation effect is available
here.
Data and Methods
The estimates in Table 1 are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Social and Economic
Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey and data from the TRIM3 microsimulation model.
Due to sample-size limitations, these estimates represent a three-year average covering the years 2015,
2016, and 2017 (the most recent three-year period for which TRIM3-adjusted ASEC data are available).
Author Information
Conor F. Boyle Jameson A. Carter
Analyst in Social Policy Research Assistant
Disclaimer
This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan shared staff
to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and under the direction of
Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other than public understanding of
information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in connection with CRS’s institutional role.
CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not subject to copyright protection in the United
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