Small Business Snapshot (November 19, 2024): Small Business Optimism Rose on Future Expectations

Summary

This November 19, 2024 Small Business Snapshot says small business optimism rose on future expectations while owners reported rising costs and the lowest sales seen since July 2020. It says the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) monthly Small Business Optimism Index rose by 2.2 points to 93.7, and that 35 percent of owners reported openings they were unable to fill. The Main Street measurements section reports 12,000 jobs created in October with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1 percent. For the week ending November 9, 2024, it reports initial unemployment claims of 217,000.

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SMALL BUSINESS SNAPSHOT

November 19, 2024

In the month of November, small business optimism rose on future expectations, although owners reported rising costs and the lowest sales seen since July 2020. Filling vacancies remained less of an issue for small business owners than in recent years, with 35 percent reporting openings they were unable to fill, up one point from last month and signaling that small businesses are being held back less by open positions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released earlier this month, showed the inflation rate rose slightly to 2.4 percent year over year, higher than forecast. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile measurements of food and energy, rose slightly more than expected by 0.3 percent from the previous month. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) monthly Small Business Optimism Index rose by 2.2 points to 93.7. October marked the 34th consecutive month spent below the 50-year average of 98, but that streak will likely come to an end in the months ahead. The Uncertainty Index rose by another seven points up to 110, marking the highest level ever recorded, but with the presidential election now in the past, uncertainty is likely to drastically fall. While the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points will provide some additional relief, recent remarks by Chair Jerome Powell signal that there is no rush to cut rates further, potentially taking a December rate cut off the table. Despite the potential delay to more interest rate cuts, small business owners can look forward to a better business environment in the coming months as President Trump and Congressional Republicans work to undo the Biden-Harris Administration’s $1.8 trillion regulatory regime.

The below November 2024 Small Business Snapshot features numbers and updates to provide more insight into the current small business economy.

MAIN STREET MEASUREMENTS:

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (INFLATION)

The prices consumers paid for goods and services increased 0.2 percent in October as compared to September and totaled a 2.6 percent increase when measured over the last 12 months.

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX

Wholesale prices increased 0.2 percent in October and had an increase of 2.4 percent year over year.

JOB OPENINGS

At the end of September, businesses were unable to fill 2.4 million jobs, 3.1 million workers quit their jobs, and the number of layoffs and discharges changed little.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

12,000 jobs were created in October, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 percent.

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE

The labor force participation rate decreased slightly to 62.6 percent in October.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

For the week ending November 9, 2024, the Department of Labor reported that initial unemployment claims were 217,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s level.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims totaled 221,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s average.

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