Economic Data and Analysis to Inform Decision-Making — Coconino County, Arizona
Summary
This is a data profile titled Economic Data and Analysis to Inform Decision-Making for Coconino County, Arizona, compared with small metro counties, defined as counties that belong to an urban cluster with a population between 50,000 and 250,000. It is organized around Outcomes (Growth, Prosperity, Inclusion), Drivers, and Enablers, and includes COVID trends. It states that Coconino County made slight progress on economic growth from 2009 to 2019 and that over the decade the region lagged the small metro counties' average on output but experienced stronger employment growth. It also states that the county experienced rising median earnings and declining poverty rates from 2010 to 2019.
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- Coconino Economic Data Slide Deck
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“Economic Data and Analysis to Inform Decision-Making — Coconino County, Arizona.”
Original at www.coconino.az.gov. Archived at Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/source-documents/coconino-economic-data-slide-deck/
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Data Profile
Economic Data and Analysis to Inform Decision-Making
Small metro counties
Coconino County, Arizona counties that belong to an urban cluster with a
population between 50,000 and 250,000
Outcomes
Growth Prosperity Inclusion Racial Inclusion Neighborhood Inclusion
Drivers
Job Creation and Quality Business Growth Job Preparation and Wage Gains
Vibrant, Connected Communities
Enablers Public Health and Safety
COVID trends
Growth creates new opportunities for individuals. Coconino County, Arizona made slight progress on economic
Outcome Entrepreneurship plays a critical role in growth, creating
new jobs and new output; entrepreneurial activity can also
growth from 2009 to 2019. Over the decade, the region lagged
small metro counties' average on output, but experienced stronger
indicate investors' confidence in future growth and employment growth. Local entrepreneurship experienced a sharp
Growth prosperity. decline during the beginning of the decade but has slowly
rebounded since 2013.
Gross County Product (2010 = 100) Employment (2010 = 100) Jobs at young firms (2010 = 100)
+ 3.6% 112.5 100
+ 1.2%
+ 3.2%
130 110.0 + 1.1%
95
107.5 -0.7%
120 -0.8%
105.0 90
110
102.5
85
100 100.0
Coconino County, Arizona small metro counties Coconino County, Arizona small metro counties Coconino County, Arizona small metro counties
When a county grows by increasing the productivity of its Coconino County, Arizona experienced rising prosperity from 2010
Outcome workers, through innovation or by upgrading workers' skills,
for example, the value of those workers' labor rises. As the
- 2019. Its GDP per capita growth is on par with the average
growth of small metro counties, while its productivity growth and
value of labor rises, so can wages. Increases in productivity average annual earnings growth slowed down in recent years
Prosperity and wages are what ultimately improve living standards for
workers and families.
compared to other small metro counties.
Productivity (2010 = 100) Per capita GDP (2010 = 100) Average annual earnings (2010 = 100)
125 + 2.5% + 2.3%
+ 2.5%
+ 2.4%
120 + 2.0%
120 + 2.0% 120
115
115
110 110 110
105 105
100
100 100
Coconino County, Arizona small metro counties Coconino County, Arizona small metro counties Coconino County, Arizona small metro counties
Inclusive growth enables more people to invest in their Coconino County, Arizona experienced rising median earnings,
Outcome skills and to purchase more goods and services. Thus,
inclusive growth can increase human capital and raise
employment rates, and declining poverty rates from 2010 to 2019.
Poverty rates experienced a fast and steady decline since 2010.
aggregate demand, boosting prosperity and growth.
Inclusion
Median earnings Employment rates (2010 = 100) Poverty rates (2010 = 100)
+ 3.3% 108
100
130
106
90
120 -1.9%
104 + 0.4% 80
+ 0.4%
110
102
70
100 100 60 -5.3%
Coconino County, Arizona Coconino County, Arizona small metro counties Coconino County, Arizona small metro counties
Racial inclusion measures if changes in inclusion expands or Despite some progress on narrowing racial disparity gaps in
Outcome narrows the disparities among different racial and ethnic
groups
Coconino County, Arizona from 2010 - 2019, significant disparities
in median earnings, employment rates, and poverty rates persist
among its white residents, Latinos, and Native Americans.
Racial Inclusion
Median Earnings Employment rates Poverty rates
35%
$30,000 + 3.5%
+ 0.5%
+ 9.4% 60% -0.7% 30%
+ 5.5%
$25,000
25%
55% -3.0%
$20,000
20%
$15,000 50%
0.0% 15%
-6.0%
Latino Native White Latino Native White Native White
Neighborhood inclusion measures if changes in inclusion Economic disparities between qualified census tracts and the rest
Outcome expands or narrows the disparities between qualified
census tracts and the rest of the county
of Coconino County, Arizona remain large. The gap expanded in
median earnings and poverty rates, and narrowed slightly in
employment rates.
Neighborhood Inclusion
Median Earnings Employment rates Poverty rates
+ 2.5%
$30,000 -0.6% 40%
60% + 1.0%
$25,000
30%
$20,000
50%
$15,000 20%
-0.1%
+ 0.2%
-1.6%
40%
Rest of County Qualified Census Tracts Rest of County Qualified Census Tracts Rest of County Qualified Census Tracts
Coconino County, Arizona saw a decline in its share of jobs in
Drivers tradable sectors - those that pay higher wages and drive
productivity growth.
The ratio of business ownership share to population share is only
Job Creation and Quality Business Growth 37% for minorities.
Share of jobs in tradable industries Minority business ownership fair share ratio
102 + 0.2%
44.2%
40%
37.5%
101
30%
100
-0.1%
99 20%
98
10%
0%
Coconino County, Arizona small metro counties
Secondary and post-secondary educational attainment is rising
Drivers across the board in the county. But large gaps persist in education
attainment among different racial and ethnic groups, and between
neighborhoods.
Job Preparation and Wage Gains
Share of adults with a Share of adults with a Share of adults with an Share of adults with an
high school diploma or higher high school diploma or higher associate's degree or higher associate's degree or higher
+ 0.5% 92% + 0.4% + 1.5% + 2.2%
80%
+ 4.1%
90%
88% 70% 40%
+ 8.6%
+ 1.3% 60%
80% + 5.9%
84%
+ 0.6% 30%
50%
+ 1.2%
70% 80% 40%
30% 20%
Latino Native White Rest of County Qualified Census Tracts Latino Native White Rest of County Qualified Census Tracts
Share of Coconino County residents living in a qualified census
Drivers tract has been on the rise in the past decade, reaching about 22%
in 2019. In particular, more than 30% of Native American live in a
qualified census tract, compared to about 20% of Latino residents
Vibrant, Connected Communities and 15% of white residents do.
Share of residents in QCTs (Total # of QCT is: 5) Share of residents in QCTs by racial groups
22.5%
30.0%
20.0%
17.5%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
Children All Latino Native White
Rent-burdened households increased in the past decade. More
Drivers than 50% of renters living in qualified census tracts are rent-
burdened, meaning they pay over 30% of their monthly income on
rent. There are 54% of households in qualified census tracts
Vibrant, Connected Communities without broadband access, with little improvements in the past
three years.
Share of renters pay over 30% of income on monthly rents Share of households without broadband access
+ 2.5% 56.8% 55.3% 54.0%
50%
40%
40%
20%
30%
14.7%
8.2% 8.0%
-2.9%
0%
2017 2018 2019
Rest of County Qualified Census Tracts Rest of County Qualified Census Tracts
In Coconino County, Arizona, children's chances of reaching the
Drivers top 20% of income distribution varies significantly by their racial
and ethnic backgrounds, and the neighborhood they grew up in.
Children in white families are three times more likely to reach the
Vibrant, Connected Communities top 20% than children who grew up in a Native American family.
Probability of reaching top 20% Probability of reaching top 20%
22.4% 17%
20% 15%
15%
13.7%
10%
10%
7%
6.1% 5%
5%
0% 0%
Native Latino White Rest of County Qualified Census Tracts
Health care coverage and food security has improved for all racial
Enablers and ethnic groups. Yet, Native Americans and Latinos are much
less likely to have health insurance coverage, and more likely to be
food insecure and receive SNAP benefits.
Public Health and Safety
Share of babies born low birthweight Share of residents with health insurance Share of residents receive SNAP
8.3%
8% + 1.2% 40%
90%
7.5%
+ 5.9%
80% 30%
6%
70% + 0.4% -4.5%
20%
4%
60%
10%
2% 50% -8.2%
0%
Coconino County, Arizona nation
Latino Native White Latino Native White
Employment rates for all workers have recovered compared to
Pandemic Trends - Outcomes January 2020 , but employment rates for low-income workers
remain lower than pre-pandemic levels. The number of unique job
postings in the county experienced a slight decline in the first half
Growth of 2020, but quickly recovered and grew rapidly since then.
Percentage change in employment rates from Jan 2020 Number of unique job postings
10000
0% 9000
8000
-20%
7000
-40%
6000
5000
Employment Employment, income below median
In Coconino County, Arizona, the largest low-income jobs lost is in
Pandemic Trends - Outcome Accommodation and food services sector, followed by
administrative and support services, and arts.
The county has a higher projected food insecurity rate than the
Inclusion national average.
Total estimated low-income jobs lost Projected food insecurity rate in 2021
1 064.5 17.3%
900
15%
600
12.7%
300
183.5 193.4 10%
23.2 28.9 41.8 42.7 55.3 67.5 67.5
0
5%
0%
Coconino County, Arizona nation
Coconino County, Arizona’s growth in new business applications is
Pandemic Trends - Drivers slower than the small metro counties average, and did not
experience the surge in 2020 as other small metro counties. The
number of active small business merchants and overall small
Quality Job Creation business revenue is still 50% lower compared to the pre-pandemic
level.
New business applications (2010 = 100) % change in small business merchants and revenue since Jan 2020
+ 5.3%
25%
160
0%
+ 3.9%
140
-25%
120
-50%
100
Coconino County, Arizona small metro counties Counts Revenue
Student participation and progress in online math coursework has
Pandemic Trends - Drivers declined over 50% from Jan 2020.
On housing, active listings are in short supply, with a more than
Job Preparation and Wage Gains | Quality Vibrant Neighborhoods 50% decline from same month last year. Median listing price has
increased over 25% for the same period.
Percentage change in math progress since Jan 2020 Percentage change in housing listings and price,
compared to same time last year
50%
25%
0% 0%
-25%
-50%
-50%
-75%
-100%
participation progress Active listings Median listing price
The share of the population fully vaccinated in Coconino County,
Pandemic Trends - Enabler Arizona is 55.5% as of July 8, 2021, slightly higher than the U.S.
average.
Health and Public Safety
Share of residents fully vaccinated
55.5%
48.9%
40
20
0
Coconino County, Arizona United States
Appendix | Outcome
Growth indicators measure change in the county’s economy and the economy’s level of entrepreneurial activity.
• Jobs measure the total number of occupied full- and part-time wage and salaried employment positions in a county.
Source: EMSI estimates
• GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in a county, including wages and profits.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Jobs at young firms captures the total number of full- and part-time wage and salaried jobs at young, private-sector firms age five years. It reflects the employment impact of entrepreneurship
in a county.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators
Prosperity indicators capture changes in the average wealth and income produced by an economy.
• Standard of living equals GDP divided by total county population (GDP per capita), which reflects a county’s average standard of living.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau
• Productivity equals GDP divided by the total number of jobs, a crude measure of a county’s overall productivity.
Source: EMSI estimates and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Average annual wage equals aggregate annual wages paid to workers divided by the total number of jobs.
Source: EMSI estimates
Inclusion indicators measure how the benefits of growth and prosperity in a county—specifically, changes in employment and income—are distributed among individuals.
• Median earnings measures the annual wage earned by the person in the middle of a county’s income distribution (among people at least 16 years old).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey
• Poverty rate measures the share of population below federal poverty line.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey
• Employment rate measures the share of individuals ages 18 to 64 who are currently employed.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey
Appendix | Drivers
Job Creation and Quality Business Growth
• Share of struggling families equals number of families with children whose wages were not high enough to cover their cost of living, as share of all families with children in the enclosing
metropolitan area.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau ACS Microdata
• Share of jobs in tradable industries are number of jobs in tradable industries (as defined in https://clustermapping.us/cluster ), as share of all jobs.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau County Business Patterns
• Business ownership fair share is the ratio of business ownership share to population share for the particular racial and ethnic group in the enclosing metropolitan area.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Annual Business Survey
Job Preparation and Wage Gains
• Share of adults with a high school diploma or higher
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS)
• Share of adults with an associate degree or higher
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS)
Vibrant, Connected Communities
• Share of residents living in a Qualified Census Tract, as defined in https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/qct.html
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS)
• Rent burdened households is the percentage of renters pay more over 30% of monthly income on rents
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS)
• Share of households without broadband access
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS)
• Upward mobility refers to children’s chances of reaching top 20% of income distribution when they grew up.
Source: The Opportunity Atlas, https://www.opportunityatlas.org/
Appendix | Enablers
Public Health and Safety
• Share of babies born low birthweight equals the number of babies born less than 2500 grams as share of all live births.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics
• Share of residents with health insurance
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey
• Share of residents receiving SNAP measures number of low- and no-income households that receive food-purchasing assistance from federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
(SNAP), as share of all households.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey
Appendix | COVID Trends
Outcomes
• Percentage change in employment rates measures the change in employment, indexed to Jan 4-31, 2020, based on payroll data from Paychex, Intuit, Earnin, and Kronos.
Source: Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker, https://tracktherecovery.org/
• Number of unique job postings equals total number of jobs posted online from over 100,000 websites, after removing duplications.
Source: EMSI estimates
• Total estimated low-income jobs lost measures the number of low-income jobs (<$40,000 salary) lost because of COVID-19 in the county
Source: Urban Institute, https://datacatalog.urban.org/dataset/estimated-low-income-jobs-lost-covid-19
• Projected food insecurity rate
Source: Feeding America, https://feedingamericaaction.org/resources/state-by-state-resource-the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-food-insecurity/
• New business applications measures business applications as indicated by applications for an Employer Identification Number (EIN) in the county
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics
• Small business merchants and revenues records revenues from credit card transactions for small businesses, based on data from Womply. A merchant is determined as closed if it reports
zero credit card revenue for three days in a row.
Source: Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker, https://tracktherecovery.org/
Drivers
• Math progress measures student participation and progress in online math coursework from Zearn Math
Source: Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker, https://tracktherecovery.org/
• Changes in active housing listings and median listing price
Source: Realtor.com, https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
Enablers
• Share of adults fully vaccinated
Source: The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html
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