Council of Mayors Executive Committee — Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (April 20, 2021)
Summary
The meeting packet for the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) Council of Mayors Executive Committee meeting of April 20, 2021, chaired by Mayor Jeffery Schielke of Batavia. The agenda covers a CMAP update, the STP Project Selection Committee, the IDOT Bureau of Local Roads, CMAP's membership in the Government Alliance on Race and Equity, COVID-19's economic impacts in northeastern Illinois, the Local Government Network and legislative updates, with the next meeting set for July 20, 2021. The packet includes draft minutes of the January 19, 2021 meeting and presentation slides. The COVID-19 slides chart employment, unemployment rates by group, consumer spending, small business revenues and small businesses open, and a committee memo dated March 22, 2021 discusses regional disparities and recovery.
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“Council of Mayors Executive Committee — Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (April 20, 2021).”
Original at cmap.illinois.gov. Archived at Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/source-documents/cmap-council-mayors-packet-2021-d8e230818c/
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Council of Mayors Executive Committee
Jeffery Schielke, Chairman
Mayor, City of Batavia
Kane/Kendall Council April 20, 2021 – 9:30 a.m.
Leon Rockingham, Jr., 1st Vice Chair
Mayor, City of North Chicago
Lake Council Please join from your computer, tablet or smartphone
Eugene Williams, 2nd Vice Chair
Mayor, Village of Lynwood
https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/643556901
South Council
Lawrence Levin
President, Village of Glencoe You can also dial in using your phone.
North Shore Council
United States: +1 (571) 317-3112
George Van Dusen
Mayor, Village of Skokie Access Code: 643-556-901
North Shore Council
Karen Darch
President, Village of Barrington
Northwest Council
Tom Hayes
1.0 Call to Order/Introductions 9:30 a.m.
President, Village of Arlington Heights
Northwest Council
Jeffrey Sherwin 2.0 Agenda Changes and Announcements
Mayor, City of Northlake
North Central Council
Joseph Tamburino 3.0 Approval of Minutes – January 19. 2021
Mayor, Village of Hillside
North Central Council ACTION REQUESTED: Approval
James Discipio
President, Village of LaGrange Park
Central Council
4.0 CMAP update
Alice Gallagher
President, Village of Western Springs CMAP leadership will provide an update on recent actions taken by the
Central Council
agency.
Dave Brady
President, Village of Bedford Park ACTION REQUESTED: Information
Southwest Council
Mary Werner
President, Village of Worth
Southwest Council
5.0 STP Project Selection Committee Update
Michael Einhorn Staff will provide an update on activities of the STP Project
President, Village of Crete
South Council Selection Committee.
Len Austin
President, Village of Clarendon Hills
ACTION REQUESTED: Information
DuPage Council
Erik Spande
President, Village of Winfield 6.0 IDOT Bureau of Local Roads Update
DuPage Council
IDOT Local Road Staff will provide an update.
John Skillman
President, Village of Carpentersville ACTION REQUESTED: Information
Kane/Kendall Council
Glenn Ryback
President, Village of Wadsworth
Lake Council
7.0 GARE Membership Overview
Richard Mack Staff will report on how CMAP is leveraging its
President, Village of Ringwood
McHenry Council membership in the Government Alliance on Race and
Robert Nunamaker Equity (GARE) and its national network and resources to
President, Village of Fox River Grove
McHenry Council support efforts to operationalize equity in the agency's
Jim Holland
Mayor, Village of Frankfort
internal processes and external initiatives.
Will Council ACTION REQUESTED: Discussion
Terry Kernc
Mayor, Village of Diamond
Will Council
8.0 Summary of COVID-19’s economic impacts in northeastern Illinois
The COVID-19 pandemic created public health and economic crises for communities across
northeastern Illinois and highlighted the critical drivers of long-term vitality. CMAP staff
will review key economic indicators and signs of initial recovery, as the region approaches
the anniversary of widespread layoffs and closures.
ACTION REQUESTED: Discussion
9.0 Local Government Network Update
Staff will update the committee on recent Local Government Network initiatives.
ACTION REQUESTED: Information
10.0 Legislative Discussion/Update
Staff will provide an update on relevant legislative activities.
ACTION REQUESTED: Information
11.0 Other Business
12.0 Public Comment
This is an opportunity for comments from members of the audience. The
amount of time available to speak will be at the chair’s discretion. It
should be noted that the time for the public comment period will
immediately follow the last item on the agenda.
13.0 Next Meeting
The next meeting will be July 20, 2021.
14.0 Adjournment
Council of Mayors Executive Committee Members
___President Len Austin ___Mayor Terry Kernc ___President John Skillman
___President Dave Brady ___ President Lawrence Levin ___President Erik Spande
___President Karen Darch ___President Richard Mack ___Mayor Joseph Tamburino
___President Jim Discipio ___President Robert Nunamaker ___Mayor George Van Dusen
___President Mike Einhorn ___Mayor Leon Rockingham, Jr** ___President Mary Werner
___President Alice Gallagher ___President Glenn Ryback ___Mayor Eugene Williams**
___President Tom Hayes ___Mayor Jeffery Schielke* * Chairman
___Mayor Jim Holland ___Mayor Jeffrey Sherwin ** Vice-Chairman
Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP)
Council of Mayors Executive Committee Meeting
Draft Minutes
January 19, 2021
GoToMeeting online
Members Present: Mayor Jeffrey Schielke, President Dave Brady, President Karen Darch,
President Michael Einhorn, President Alice Gallagher, President Thomas
Hayes, Mayor Leon Rockingham, President Glenn Ryback, Mayor Jeffrey
Sherwin
Staff Present: Erin Aleman, Anthony Cefali, Patrick Day, Teri Dixon, Kama Dobbs,
Doug Ferguson, Caitlin Goodspeed, Jane Grover, Vickie Jacobsen, Timi
Koyejo, Kathy Lane, Stephanie Levine, Elliot Lewis, Tim McMahon, Jared
Patton, Stephane Phifer, Russell Pietrowiak, Elizabeth Scott, Gordon
Smith, Mary Weber, Laura Wilkison
Others Present: Elaine Bottomley, Lenny Cannata, John Donovan, Jackie Forbes, Michael
Fricano, Kendra Johnson, Mike Klemens, Daniel Knickelbein, Chris Lirot,
Matthew Pasquini, Chad Riddle, Claire Serdiuk, Vicky Smith, Joe Surdam
1.0 Call to Order and Introductions
The meeting was called to order at 9:30 a.m. by Chairman Schielke.
2.0 Agenda Changes and Announcements
There were no agenda changes. Executive Director Erin Aleman provided several
updates on work at CMAP, including the creation of a Regional Economic Taskforce,
ongoing work on the Mobility Recovery Plan, outreach to new County Board Chairs, the
upcoming call for projects with RTA, and the agency’s increased focus on traffic safety.
3.0 Approval of Minutes
A motion to approve the minutes of the October 27 meeting, as presented, made by
President Gallagher, and seconded by President Hayes. The motion carried.
4.0 STP Project Selection Committee Update
Kama Dobbs reemphasized that the CMAQ, TAP, and STP Shared Fund Call for Projects
is open until March 5. The STP and CMAQ Project Selection Committees will hold their
next meetings on April 1. Ms. Dobbs then provided programming updates on the STP
Shared fund. Summary sheets with programming details are available for download on
CMAP’s STP webpage.
5.0 IDOT Bureau of Local Roads Update
Chad Riddle provided an update on recent work at the IDOT Bureau of Local Roads.
Mr. Riddle explained that local Roads staff is still working remotely and that lettings
have picked up considerably in recent months, after dropping off significantly in 2020.
Finally, Mr. Riddle mentioned that Regional Engineer Anthony Quigley has retired, and
Jose Rios is now serving as the Acting Regional Engineer. President Einhorn asked for
clarification on how the next distribution of Rebuild Illinois Funds may be spent. Mr.
Riddle explained that projects must follow MFT rules and be bondable. Chairman
Schielke noted the professionalism of IDOT and thanked the Department for all of its
work during the last year.
6.0 Regional Safety Action Agenda
Vickie Jacobsen provided an overview of CMAP’s recent work to develop a Regional
Safety Action Agenda. Ms. Jacobsen explained that CMAP has a federal mandate to set
traffic safety targets, and that the region has not met those targets. Ms. Jacobsen then
reviewed recent trends in regional traffic safety and explained how the region is
approaching the issue by focusing on the three ON TO 2050 principles of Inclusive
Growth, Resilience, and Prioritized Investment, and by addressing speed management
and bicyclist/pedestrian safety initially. Ms. Jacobsen then provided an overview of the
Agenda’s four primary components: people, information, practice, and deliverables.
7.0 Local Government Network Update
Patrick Day provided a brief update on recent work by the Local Government Network.
Mr. Day noted that the Network has established communications with 282
municipalities, which is over 90 percent of all municipalities in the region. In October,
the Network shared an invitation to a CMAP Talks event focused on shared services and
coordinated investments. More recently, the Network has reached out to municipalities
to build awareness for the upcoming Call for Projects and conduct a survey on public
space innovations during the COVID-19 pandemic. These best practices will be used to
create a report to support implementation throughout the region.
8.0 Legislative Discussion/Update
Gordon Smith explained that a lot is happening at the state and federal level following
the transition in the federal government. Anthony Cefali then introduced the new State
Legislative Agenda, which includes the following priorities: collect and provide data to
support decision making and accountability, enhance transportation revenues to fund a
multi-modal system that works better for everyone, reform tax policy to strengthen
communities, and allocate funds for comprehensive regional planning activities. Tim
McMohan then provided an overview of the Federal Legislative Agenda, which builds
on past Agendas with a new language related to COVID-19, a greater focus on equity,
and an expanded emphasis on CMAP’s core implementation areas of transportation,
climate, and regional economic competitiveness. Once the Agendas have been approved
by the CMAP Board, they will be posted on CMAP’s website and used for ongoing
outreach to elected officials.
9.0 Other Business
There was no other business.
10.0 Public Comment
There was no public comment.
11.0 Next Meeting
The next Council of Mayors Executive Committee meeting is scheduled for April 20,
2021.
12.0 Adjournment
Chairman Schielke adjourned the meeting.
GoingofON
Council TO 2050
Mayors
The new comprehensive plan
Executive Committee
for Chicagoland
April 20,
October
2021 23, 2018
Meeting will start at 9:30am
To mute/unmute your phone use *6
Use the Chat Box for questions (staff are monitoring)
Use your full name for the login
Only Committee members participate in the conversation-
except during the public comment agenda item
1.0 Call to order/introductions
Chairman Schielke
Staff will read the names of committee members that
are logged-in and will then ask committee members
that were missed or on the phone to introduce
themselves
To mute/unmute your phone use *6
2.0 Agenda changes and
announcements
Chairman Schielke
Please mute your conference line or phone line
(*6 for phone connections) when not speaking
To ask a question, please use the chat box
When making a motion, please state your name
3.0 Approval of minutes
Chairman Schielke
Draft Minutes from January 19, 2021
ACTION REQUESTED: Approval
Committee Members: Remember to unmute (*6) your
line and state your name when making a motion
4.0 CMAP update
CMAP leadership
CMAP leadership will provide an update on recent
actions taken by the agency.
ACTION REQUESTED: Information
5.0 STP Project Selection
Committee update
Kama Dobbs
Staff will provide an update on activities of the STP
Project Selection Committee.
ACTION REQUESTED: Information
6.0 IDOT update
Chad Riddle
IDOT Bureau of Local Roads staff will provide an
update.
ACTION REQUESTED: Information
7.0 GARE membership overview
CMAP staff
Staff will provide an overview of CMAP’s ongoing DEI
work, including GARE membership.
ACTION REQUESTED: Discussion
Going ON TO 2050
Diversity, Equityplan
The new comprehensive
for Chicagoland
and Inclusion
October 23, 2018 at
CMAP
April 20, 2021
Employee groups
Diversity and Inclusion Working Group
Employee Resource Group for colleagues of color
WelMAP Committee
Appreciation Team
Diversity, equity, and inclusion
(DEI) workshops
July 2020: Standing in Solidarity with Black Americans:
Disrupting Anti-Black Racism
November 2020: Building an Organizational Culture and
Climate of Race Equity
March 2021: LGBTQIA-Affirming Best Practices
Upcoming DEI initiatives
May 2021: Disability Awareness workshops
DEI Roadmap
• Journey to building and sustaining a more inclusive
culture
• Continual review of best practices and metrics
Government Alliance on Race
and Equity (GARE)
A national network of government working to achieve racial
equity and advance opportunities for all.
https://www.racialequityalliance.org/
GARE Membership Benefits
• Peer exchange and mentorship
• Technical Assistance from experts in the field
• Administration of an Employee Equity Assessment
• Discount on GARE trainings
• Access to GARE portal and resources
GARE Resources
• Subject Area Working Groups
• Skill-building webinars and one-on-ones
• Access to tools such as:
Projects
Data tool to support equitable CARES Act funding for
Cook County
Criteria for Surface Transportation Program shared fund
Report on inequity in regional transportation fees, fines
and fares
Equitable public engagement
8.0 Economic impacts of COVID
Austen Edwards
Staff will review key economic indicators and
discuss the impact COVID-19 has had on the
region’s economy.
ACTION REQUESTED: Discussion
COVID-19’s regional
economic impacts
April 20, 2021
Cumulative change
in total nonfarm January January
employment, 2019-20 2020 March May July September November 2021
0%
-4% -4.3%
Chicago -4.5%
Illinois
-7.8%
Midwest -8%
-8.5%
U.S. average
-12%
Note: Indexed to December 2019. Chicago area data include
only the seven counties of northeastern Illinois. Midwest data
include Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and -16%
Wisconsin. Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis
of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Annual unemployment
rates by population Total age 20-24: 18.0 percent
group in Illinois, 2020 Black men: 16.8 percent
Latino women: 12.7 percent
Black women: 12.4 percent
Latino men: 11.5 percent
White women: 9.3 percent
Total: 9.1 percent
Note: Data for Asian Americans in 2020 are not available because
they were not part of the underlying tabulations for national
population controls from the Current Population Survey.
White men: 7.8 percent
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Population Survey.
Labor force participation
rate for population age
16 years or older in
Population group 2010 2019 2020
Illinois, 2010-20
Total 66.9% 64.5% 62.7%
Asian 69.7% 65.8% n/a
Black 58.2% 60.7% 56.0%
Hispanic or Latino 70.6% 70.1% 69.6%
White 68.3% 65.1% 63.8%
Note: Data for Asian Americans in 2020 are not available because
they were not part of the underlying tabulations for national
population controls from the Current Population Survey.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Population Survey.
Over-the-year jobs change
by major industry sector,
Dec. 2019 to Dec. 2020
Greater recovery
U.S. average,
Total nonfarm
Less recovery
Note: Calculated December 2019 to December 2020. Data
represent U.S. Census Bureau metropolitan statistical areas.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Cumulative change
in weekly total 40%
consumer spending 20%
by category, 2020-21 0%
-20%
-36.4%
-40%
-57.3%
Restaurants and bars
-60%
Entertainment and -66.1%
-80%
recreation
Hospitality and travel -100%
Note: Data represent only the seven counties of
northeastern Illinois.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning
analysis of Replica data.
Cumulative change
in daily small
business revenues, 30%
2020-21 20%
10%
0%
-10%
Illinois -20%
-30% -30.5%
-40%
-50%
Note: Other data include the City of Chicago and the seven -60%
counties of northeastern Illinois. Data present a 7-day
moving average indexed to January 4-31, 2020. Small -70%
businesses include those with annual revenue below the January March May July September November January
Small Business Administration’s thresholds and a maximum 2020 2021
employment ranging 100-1,500, depending on the industry.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis
of Womply data via Opportunity Insights’ Economic Tracker.
Cumulative change
in the number of
small businesses 20%
open, 2020-21 10%
0%
-10%
Illinois
-20%
-29.0%
-30%
Note: Other data include the City of Chicago and the seven
counties of northeastern Illinois. Data present a 7-day
moving average indexed to January 4-31, 2020. Small
-40%
businesses include those with annual revenue below the
Small Business Administration’s thresholds and a maximum
employment ranging 100-1,500, depending on the industry. -50%
Businesses are defined as open if they have had at least January March May July September November January
one transaction in the previous 3 days.
2020 2021
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis
of Womply data via Opportunity Insights’ Economic Tracker.
Small business
expectations of
recovery from 50%
COVID-19, 2020-21 40%
30%
April 26-May 2, 2020
February 15-21, 2021 20%
10%
Note: Data represent the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
metropolitan statistical area. Survey asks, “In your opinion, 0%
how much time do you think will pass before this business This business has There has been 2-3 months 4-6 months 6+ months I do not believe this
returns to its normal level of operations relative to one year returned to its little or no effect. business will return
normal operations. to its normal
ago?” Small businesses are defined as a single location
operations.
business with between 1-499 employees and at least $1,000
in annual revenue.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis
of U.S. Census Bureau data, Small Business Pulse Survey.
Cumulative growth in
real gross regional 49%
product, 2001-19 50%
Recession Recession
48%
48%
40%
Chicago
30% 31%
Boston
Los Angeles
New York 20% 20%
Washington, D.C.
10%
0%
Note: Indexed to 2001. Data reflect U.S. Census Bureau 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
metropolitan statistical areas.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis -10%
of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Share of population
age 25 and over with
an associate degree 60%
55.1% 56.8%
or higher, 2019
50%
45.3% 47.1%
41.6% U.S. average
40%
41%
30%
20%
10%
Note: Data reflect U.S. Census Bureau metropolitan 0%
statistical areas. Boston Chicago Los Angeles New York Washington,
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning
D.C.
analysis of America Community Survey data, 5-year
estimates 2015-19.
Change in real
median household $105,000
+24.6%
income, 1989-2019,
in 2019 dollars
$90,000
+9.8%
+23.3%
1989
+4.1%
2019 +7.6%
$75,000
+6.0%
$60,000
$45,000
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis Washington, Boston New York Los Angeles Chicago U.S.
1990 Decennial Census and American Community Survey
data, 1-year estimates 2019.
D.C. average
Median household
income by race and
$100,000
ethnicity, 2019 $89,337
$86,079
$80,000
Regional average
$70,500
$60,000
$54,622
$39,959
$40,000
$20,000
$0
Asian Black Hispanic White
Note: Data represent the U.S. Census Bureau’s Chicago-
Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metropolitan statistical area.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning data,
5-year estimates 2015-19.
9.0 Local Government Network
Patrick Day
Staff will update the committee on recent Local
Government Network initiatives.
ACTION REQUESTED: Information
10.0 Legislative update
Gordon Smith
Staff will provide an update on relevant legislative
activities.
ACTION REQUESTED: Information
11.0 Other business
Chairman Schielke
Committee members joining the meeting late
should verbally make themselves known or send an
email to transportation@cmap.illinois.gov so your
attendance is recorded.
12.0 Public comment
Comments emailed prior to the meeting will be read
by staff
Send a request through chat to make a verbal
comment
Callers: wait for chairman to acknowledge you and
remember to state your name
13.0 Next meeting
The next meeting will by July 20, 2021
14.0 Adjournment
Next Meeting:
July 20, 2021
Thank you!
Agenda Item No. 8.0
MEMORANDUM
To: CMAP Economic Development Committee
From: CMAP Staff
Date: March 22, 2021
Re: COVID-19’s regional economic impacts
Key takeaways
Metropolitan Chicago regained half the jobs lost in 2020, but job counts remain down 8.5
percent. Unemployment is highest among Black, Latino, and younger workers.
Labor markets have made some progress toward recovery, and the region finished 2020
with gains in major industry sectors that more closely reflect national trends.
Consumer spending is still down 13.6 percent in the region, with impacts falling hardest
on the leisure and hospitality sector as well as small businesses.
Approximately one in three small businesses across northeastern Illinois remains closed.
Long-term trends and lessons from the 2007-09 recession highlight the need for action
now to ensure an inclusive economic recovery.
The U.S. economy officially entered a brief, sharp recession in February 2020 as the COVID-19
pandemic and efforts to contain it pummeled business activity. Over time, the negative impacts
grew increasingly concentrated among people of color, the leisure and hospitality sector, and
small businesses. A stronger-than-expected rally in late 2020 —muted by a resurgence in the
virus — has led private-sector and government forecasters to believe the U.S. economy will see
strong economic growth as conditions improve.1 Metropolitan economies are likely to follow
different paths out of this recession, as with previous business cycles. These trajectories will
depend on longer-term fundamentals like industry mix, education levels, and racial equity.
Metropolitan Chicago has an opportunity to redefine its post-pandemic future and to use this
moment as an inflection point to improve the region’s current trajectory. The pandemic created
public health and economic crises for communities across northeastern Illinois, with steep job
losses and sharp declines in consumer spending. It also highlighted the enduring value of the
region’s greatest assets — its diverse talent, advanced industries, extensive infrastructure, and
strong public services. This memo looks at available data on the pandemic’s economic impacts
in northeastern Illinois, our initial recovery, and longer-term trends in the regional economy.
1 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, First Quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters, February 2021.
Labor markets show signs of recovery but remain significantly impaired
The U.S. economy saw record-setting declines and record-setting gains in 2020 as the COVID-19
pandemic unfolded. By April 2020, metropolitan Chicago had shed approximately 645,000 jobs
(15.71 percent) off its January levels. Job markets stabilized somewhat over the summer as
businesses and consumers adapted to public health conditions. This recovery then weakened
again slightly with the onset of winter and a resurgence of the virus. Overall, the region has
experienced relatively quick but faltering job growth. By January 2021, northeastern Illinois had
regained many of the jobs lost in 2020 but remained down 8.5 percent from a year prior. These
swings reflect similar patterns elsewhere yet recent job gains lag behind Midwestern and
national averages. Spring and summer 2021 may reveal whether regional job markets continue
their slow recovery or pick up speed in response to shifting public health conditions.
The Chicago area regained 43 percent of jobs lost in 2020. This recovery slowed
after a holiday season peak and lags behind Midwestern and national trends.
Chicago region Illinois Midwest U.S.
January January
2020 March May July September November 2021
0%
-4% -4.3%
-4.5%
-8% -7.8%
-8.5%
-12%
-16%
Cumulative change in total nonfarm employment, not seasonally adjusted, 2020-21
Note: Indexed to December 2019. Chicago area data include only the seven counties of northeastern Illinois. Midwest data include
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Employment Statistics.
Volatility in the job markets led to widespread unemployment, with persistent disparities by
income levels, race/ethnicity, and geography. Northeastern Illinois’ jobless rate reached its
worst levels in April 2020 (shown in the figure below), when unemployment spiked to more
than 17.2 percent before settling to 8.3 percent in December. The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked
havoc across the U.S., as large, established metropolitan areas saw the first outbreaks and often-
steepest declines in consumer spending. Unemployment rates across peer metropolitan areas in
January 2021 were:2
2 Chicago area data include only the seven counties of northeastern Illinois. All other regions reflect U.S. Census Bureau
metropolitan statistical areas. CMAP analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Employment Statistics.
Committee Memo March 22, 2021
Los Angeles: 11.5 percent Boston: 6.8 percent
New York: 9.6 percent U.S. average: 6.3 percent
Chicago: 8.9 percent Washington, D.C.: 6.0 percent
Houston: 8.3 percent
Despite early recovery, labor markets remain impaired as unemployment rates
and initial jobless claims remain well-above their pre-pandemic levels.
Chicago region U.S. average
20%
17.2%
16%
14.8%
12%
8.9%
8%
6.3%
4%
0%
October January 2020 April July October January 2021
Unemployment in northeastern Illinois, 2019-21
Note: Chicago area data include only the seven counties of northeastern Illinois.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, preliminary March 2021.
Over 57,000 Illinois workers filed an initial claim for unemployment insurance (UI) in the first
week of March 2021, approximately 6.5 times as many as the same week a year prior.3 A quarter
million workers in the state collected benefits for the week. Deep challenges and inequities
plague an American UI system in need of reform. But the tally of first-time claimants is still a
leading indicator because it can portend larger shifts in the labor market. Weekly jobless claims
in the state have declined from an unprecedented 202,000 in early April 2020. Their sustained,
high levels nearly a year into the pandemic reveal the instability that many workers still face.
The peak during the 2007-09 recession saw just 34,500 weekly claims in early January 2009.
Research and lived experiences also suggest that the U.S. job market often operates on a Last
Hired, First Fired basis, with vulnerable populations being the last to see the real benefits of
economic expansion and the first to feel the impact of a wider downturn. This is particularly
true for those who live and work at the intersections of disadvantaged identities, including
women of color and those with a disability. Monthly employment estimates are generally not
available by gender, race/ethnicity, or disability status at a local level. But preliminary annual
3 CMAP analysis of U.S. Employment and Training Administration data.
Committee Memo March 22, 2021
averages for Illinois suggest a similar trend, with unemployment rates in 2020 highest among
Black, Latino, and younger workers. Statewide annual unemployment estimates include:4
Total age 20-24: 18.0 percent Latino men: 11.5 percent
Black men: 16.8 percent White women: 9.3 percent
Latino women: 12.7 percent Total: 9.1 percent
Black women: 12.4 percent White men: 7.8 percent
But improving unemployment rates can obscure the number of people who are out of work,
because of how the unemployment rate is constructed and the unique effects of this downturn.
Diminished jobs and earnings potential during a downturn can discourage people from joining
or remaining in the labor force. The pandemic has also required many workers to forego work
to provide child and family care, forced some to take furloughs or early retirement, and left
others unable to work because they are at risk for severe illness. The result can be an apparent
decrease in the unemployment rate without substantial improvement in the labor market.
Approximately 137,000 fewer workers (3.2 percent) were working or looking for work in the
region by January 2021 compared to a year prior.5 In many cases, the pandemic may have
worsened existing trends statewide. Illinois’ labor force participation rate — the share of
residents 16 years or older that are employed or actively seeking work — has been declining for
several years amid economic challenges and demographic shifts. Over the past decade, the
state’s working age population has grown by about 45,000 workers, but labor force participation
fell from 66.9 percent in 2010 to 64.5 percent in 2019 and to an estimated 62.7 percent in 2020.
These trends are closely tied to long-standing racial inequities that restrict opportunity for Black
and Latino people in particular. Recessions can worsen the barriers to work for these groups
and have lasting impacts on other measures of inequality. Declining labor force participation
across demographic groups (shown in the figure below) suggests Illinois’ recovery may be
slowed if people and places are left on the sidelines.
Declining labor force participation rates over the past decade may point to larger
challenges in the Illinois workforce and slow the state’s recovery.
Population group 2010 2019 2020
Total 66.9% 64.5% 62.7%
Asian 69.7% 65.8% n/a
Black 58.2% 60.7% 56.0%
Hispanic or Latino 70.6% 70.1% 69.6%
White 68.3% 65.1% 63.8%
Labor force participation rate for population age 16 years or older in Illinois, 2010-20
Note: Data for Asian Americans in 2020 are not available because they were not part of the underlying tabulations for national
population controls from the Current Population Survey.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Population Survey.
4 CMAP analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Population Survey. Data for Asian
Americans in 2020 are not available because they were not part of the underlying tabulations for national
population controls from the Current Population Survey.
5 CMAP analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Population Survey.
Committee Memo March 22, 2021
Negative impacts are concentrated in leisure and hospitality, small businesses
Job losses are also uneven across industries and across metropolitan economies. Northeastern
Illinois shed nearly one in three jobs in leisure and hospitality, compared to about one in fifty in
trade, transportation, and utilities.6 But it has generally fared better than some peer regions like
New York and Los Angeles. The figure below compares job change estimates in major industry
sectors for select metropolitan areas, relative to the national, economy-wide average.
Metropolitan Chicago finished 2020 with job recoveries in major industry sectors
that more closely reflect national trends than some peer metropolitan areas.
Over-the-year change in payroll employment by major industry sector in select U.S. metropolitan statistical areas,
December 2019 to December 2020
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Employment Statistics.
Deep uncertainty during the pandemic’s initial economic shocks affected nearly every sector in
March and April 2020. But as the crisis unfolded, the downturn became increasingly centered
on in-person services sectors like travel, restaurants, retail, and the arts. Metropolitan Chicago’s
export-oriented industries may have shielded it somewhat from these effects. The region
benefits from the most diversified large U.S. metropolitan economy, with historic strengths in
goods production and movement as well as business services, finance, and marketing. Analysis
by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis show how key differences in industry structure can
amplify or mitigate the severity of a downturn. While not immune to business cycles, the broad
composition of northeastern Illinois’ economy means that it tends to reflect national trends
more closely than peer regions.
6 CMAP analysis U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Employment Statistics.
Committee Memo March 22, 2021
Current indicators suggest the economic downturn is not structural but rather closely tied to the
course of the virus, its impact on household activities, and the follow-on effects for small
businesses. Consumer spending in northeastern Illinois was down 13.6 percent the week of
February 15, 2021 from the same week a year before.7 The decline is most significant for more
discretionary categories and in-person services like hospitality, entertainment, and restaurants.
The figure below shows how consumer spending in these categories has shifted here over the
past year. Other categories like transportation and retail have fared better than expected, and
grocery stores saw an 11.3 percent over-the-year increase as more households cooked at home.
Changes in weekly consumer spending from February 2020 to February 2021 were:
Hospitality and travel: -66.1% Retail: -0.6%
Entertainment and recreation: -57.3% Transportation: -0.4%
Restaurant and bars: -36.4% Grocery stores: +11.3%
Total: -13.6%
Consumers curtailed spending on in-person services like leisure and hospitality,
often in response to COVID-19 conditions rather than government restrictions.
Hospitality and travel Entertainment and recreation Restaurants and bars
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-36.4%
-40%
-57.3%
-60%
-66.1%
-80%
-100%
Cumulative change in weekly total consumer spending by category in metropolitan Chicago, 2020-21
Note: Data represent only the seven counties of northeastern Illinois.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of Replica data.
Volatility in consumer spending has also fallen hardest on small businesses, which tend to have
smaller cash reserves for short-term and emergency expenses. Around 73 percent of the
Chicago region’s establishments have fewer than 10 employees.8 Businesses have increasingly
adapted to online or takeout sales, and federal supports in the form of stimulus checks or
expanded unemployment benefits have helped to boost spending, especially for lower-income
7 CMAP analysis of Replica data. Data represent only the seven counties of northeastern Illinois.
8 CMAP analysis of U.S Census Bureau data, County Business Patterns 2018.
Committee Memo March 22, 2021
households. But small business revenues in the region are still about a third below their pre-
pandemic levels, according to data from Opportunity Insights. (Small businesses include those
with annual revenues below the U.S. Small Business Administration’s thresholds and a
maximum employment ranging 100-1,500, depending on the industry.) Estimates for small
business revenues as of February 2, 2021 compared to January 2020 levels include:
City of Chicago: -29.4 percent Lake County: -18.7 percent
Cook County: -30.0 percent McHenry County: -27.3 percent
DuPage County: -24.8 percent Will County: -28.7 percent
Kane County: -43.7 percent State of Illinois: -28.4 percent
Kendall County: -17.4 percent
Small business revenue in northeastern Illinois and statewide have stabilized
since the pandemic’s initial shock but remain well-below January 2020 levels.
Illinois
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
January March May July September November January
2020 2021
Cumulative change in daily small business revenues in northeastern Illinois and statewide, 2020-21
Note: Data present a 7-day moving average indexed to January 4-31, 2020. Small businesses include those with annual revenues
below the Small Business Administration’s thresholds and a maximum employment ranging 100-1,500, depending on the industry.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of Womply data via Opportunity Insights’ Economic Tracker.
Estimates also suggest that significant numbers of small businesses have been forced to close
their doors, due to the drop in consumer demand or out of concern for personal and community
wellbeing. About one in three small businesses across northeastern Illinois remains closed as of
February 2, 2021 — nearly a year after widespread outbreaks and restrictions began. Data from
Opportunity Insights defines businesses as open if they have had at least one transaction in the
last three days. More research is needed to fully understand the impact of government supports
like business relief grants or emergency loans, as well as the disproportionate impacts on Black
entrepreneurs and other groups that face structural disadvantages. Estimates for small business
closures for February 2, 2021 compared to January 2020 levels include:
Committee Memo March 22, 2021
Agenda Item No. 8.0
City of Chicago: -29.0 percent Lake County: -27.9 percent
Cook County: -29.1 percent McHenry County: -30.6 percent
DuPage County: -28.3 percent Will County: -30.4 percent
Kane County: -32.8 percent State of Illinois: -29.0 percent
Kendall County: -23 percent
Data suggest about one in three small businesses across northeastern Illinois
remains closed nearly a year after widespread outbreaks and restrictions began.
Illinois
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
January March May July September November January
2020 2021
Cumulative change in the number of small businesses open in northeastern Illinois and statewide, 2020-21
Note: Data present a 7-day moving average indexed to January 4-31, 2020. Small businesses include those with annual revenues
below the Small Business Administration’s thresholds and a maximum employment ranging 100-1,500, depending on the industry.
Businesses are defined as open if they have had at least one transaction in the previous 3 days.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of Womply data via Opportunity Insights’ Economic Tracker.
Like job markets, conditions for small businesses remain impaired and may have lasting effects
as the economy recovers. Nearly half (47.9 percent) of small businesses in metropolitan Chicago
reported that they would need more than six months to recover from the downturn, according
to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Small Business Pulse Survey for the week of February 15, 2021. This
is up from 38.6 percent for the week of April 26, 2020, as shown in the following figure. But, the
primary trend has been one of divergence over time. As the region’s economy has stabilized
and slowly improved, small businesses have increasingly indicated either greater confidence or
greater concern about their ability to recover. Approximately one in five small businesses
reported operating at their normal, pre-pandemic levels of operations, despite nearly a year of
unprecedented public health and economic challenges.
Continued recovery depends first and foremost on tackling the virus itself. Ongoing research
from Opportunity Insights at Harvard University shows that indicators like small business
revenue and jobs were declining before government restrictions came into effect, as higher-
income households in particular reduced discretionary spending. This resulted in steep job
Small businesses are growing either more confident or more concerned about
their ability to return to their normal, pre-pandemic levels of operations.
April 26-May 2, 2020 February 15-21, 2021
47.9%
50%
38.6%
40%
29.8%
30%
19.2%
20% 17.1%
12.9%
9.4%
10% 7.1%
3.9% 6.6%
3.2%
0%
This business has There has been 2-3 months 4-6 months More than 6 I do not believe
returned to its little or no effect. months this business will
normal operations. return to its normal
operations.
Small business expectations of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic in metropolitan Chicago, 2020-21
Note: Data represent the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metropolitan statistical area. Survey asks, “In your opinion, how much
time do you think will pass before this business returns to its normal level of operations relative to one year ago?” Small businesses
are defined as a single location business with between 1-499 employees and at least $1,000 in annual revenue.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, Small Business Pulse Survey.
losses for lower-income workers commuting to retail and hospitality jobs in more affluent areas.
As public health fears persisted into the summer and fall 2020, state-ordered re-openings of
economies had small effects on spending and jobs. Even modest improvements slipped as rates
of COVID-19 cases worsened with the onset of winter. Business activity likely will not make
substantial gains until shoppers, diners, and tourists feel more confident returning in person.
And national data suggest strong reason to expect business activity and job markets to register
much stronger growth as conditions improve in 2021. For example, business fixed investments
appear up with U.S. industrial production continuing to make significant progress in January9
and manufacturers’ new orders for core capital goods at an all-time high.10 Household spending
on leisure, hospitality, dining, and other in-person services should also rebound quickly in
response to public health conditions. Initial improvements in these industries during fall 2020
— as well as a marked uptick in consumer spending nationally in January 2021 — suggest there
is significant pent up demand for getting “back to normal.”11
Longer-term trends continue to drive economic opportunity and growth
Despite coming off the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, metropolitan Chicago
entered the COVID-19 pandemic with a declining population and lagging economic growth.
Although official data for 2020 are generally not available yet, looking back at existing trends in
the regional economy can highlight issues that are critical to the region’s recovery. Academic
9 CMAP analysis of Federal Reserve System Board of Governors data, Industrial Production: Total Index.
10 CMAP analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense capital goods
excluding aircraft.
11 CMAP analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data, real personal consumption expenditures.
Committee Memo March 22, 2021
research suggests that natural disasters have severe consequences for those impacted directly
but little effect on long-term growth for large, well-developed economies, which depends more
on fundamental factors like industry mix, educational attainment, and racial equity.
During 2001-19, regional economic production grew just 0.9 percent annually, or half the
national average, and employment grew just 0.02 percent annually, less than one-third the
national average.12 The chart below shows cumulative growth in real gross regional product —
the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced annually — in key metropolitan
areas over the past two decades. Most regions follow a similar business cycle of expansion and
contraction in economic activity as the U.S. overall. After substantial declines during the 2007-09
recession, metropolitan Chicago recovered its production levels more slowly than peer regions.
By 2019, this decade-long growth was decelerating for most large metropolitan economies and
the U.S. overall. Key factors in our recoveries from past downturns can demonstrate the lasting
damage that slowed job and production growth can have on northeastern Illinois.
Metropolitan Chicago recovered its economic production levels more than six
year after the 2007-09 recession began — much longer than peer economies.
Cumulative growth in real gross regional product, 2001-19
Note: Indexed to 2001. Data reflect U.S. Census Bureau metropolitan statistical areas.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Northeastern Illinois has significant assets that, if fully tapped, would allow it to outcompete
peer regions economically. However, its recent performance has not lived up to this potential.
Global trends are interacting with regional issues to constrain economic growth. Jobs in export-
oriented industries continued to decline as a share of the region’s private employment from 42.3
percent in 2001 to 37.4 percent in 2020 — part of a long-term erosion in the region’s competitive
CMAP analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Economic Modeling Specialists International
12
data (Emsi 2021.1).
Committee Memo March 22, 2021
strengths.13 Taken together, metropolitan Chicago’s export-oriented industries shed more than
170,000 jobs during 2001-20. The region has a strong history as a global center for goods
production and movement — activities that have changed significantly in recent decades. Our
economy has shifted to be more service-based, but the related job gains have not made up
entirely for declines in middle-skill, middle-wage manufacturing jobs.
The region will need to find new sources of talent-driven growth by drawing on a diverse, well-
educated workforce of more 4.4 million workers, as shown in the figure below. Nearly half (45.3
percent) of residents over age 25 have an associate degree or higher, including more than 2.4
million with a bachelor degree.14 Education and training providers have faced new challenges in
maintaining this human capital during the pandemic as they have had to adapt to widespread
outbreaks and restrictions. Data show overall college enrollment in Illinois for the fall 2020 term
fell 4.8 percent from a year before, compared to 2.5 percent nationally.15 These trends are driven
by a 13.1 percent decline in first-time U.S. college freshman enrollment, with public two-year
colleges declining 21 percent. Typically, more people enroll in college during a recession as
younger workers in particular have a harder time finding work. But the pandemic has raised
added concerns over in-person instruction, affordability, and the benefits of remote learning.
Metropolitan Chicago’s workforce exceeds the national average in educational
attainment but lags behind peer regions like Boston and Washington, D.C.
60% 56.8%
55.1%
50% 47.1%
45.3%
41.6%
U.S. average
40%
41%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Boston Chicago Los Angeles New York Washington,
D.C.
Share of population age 25 and over with an associate degree or higher, 2019
Note: Data reflect U.S. Census Bureau metropolitan statistical areas.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of America Community Survey data, 5-year estimates 2015-19.
Northeastern Illinois’ deep human capital and historically low unemployment rates helped to
drive up median household incomes 13.2 percent between 2016-19. Metropolitan Chicago’s
13 CMAP analysis of Economic Modeling Specialists International data (Emsi 2021.1)
14 CMAP analysis of America Community Survey data, 5-year estimates 2015-19.
15 CMAP analysis of National Student Clearinghouse Research Center data, Current Term Enrollment
Estimates — Fall 2020.
Committee Memo March 22, 2021
typical household earned just over $75,000 in 2019, exceeding the national average of $65,700
and lagging slightly behind peer metropolitan regions (shown in the figure below). These
trends represent meaningful gains for U.S. households because broad challenges have held
incomes largely flat in recent decades. For example, new job growth in the region has
concentrated at the bottom and top ends of the earning spectrum over the past three decades.
Middle-skill, middle-wage occupations made up 41 percent of total jobs here in 2016, down
from 56 percent in 1980. Median household income reflects the economic well-being of a
region’s middle class, with higher levels generally indicating a prosperous economy and more
disposable income for residents.
Real wages nationwide had begun to rise at their fastest rates in decades prior to
the pandemic, due to particularly tight labor markets during 2016-19.
1989 2019
+24.6%
$105,000
$90,000
+9.8%
+23.3%
+4.1% +7.6%
$75,000
+6.0%
$60,000
$45,000
Washington, D.C. Boston New York Los Angeles Chicago U.S. average
Change in real median household income in select metropolitan statistical areas, 1989-2019, in 2019 dollars
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis of 1990 Decennial Census and American Community Survey data, 1-
year estimates 2019.
But continued prosperity can obscure deep racial and ethnic inequality in the Chicago region,
where the typical Black household earns just 46 cents for every dollar earned by the typical
White household.16 Shown in the figure below, the median income was just under $40,000 for
the region’s Black households in 2019 and $54,600 for Hispanics, compared to $86,000 for
Whites. The COVID-19 pandemic has likely only worsened such inequality and could have
longer-lasting impacts on people of color, women, workers with less income and education, and
people with disabilities. Another jobless recovery like that following the 2007-09 recession could
hold back these residents even further in the months and years ahead. But these disparities far
predate the current crisis. They reflect the persistent effects of discrimination, disinvestment,
and segregation, as well as self-defeating costs to our future economic growth. Research shows
16 CMAP analysis of American Community Survey data, 5-year estimates 2015-19.
Committee Memo March 22, 2021
that economies limit their own potential when they fail to implement structural reforms to
ensure all residents can fully contribute to and benefit from regional progress.
Disrupting inequities in residents’ livelihood, well-being, health, and quality of life
is critical to restarting inclusive economic growth coming out of the pandemic.
$100,000
$89,337
$86,079
$80,000
Regional average
$70,500
$60,000
$54,622
$39,959
$40,000
$20,000
$0
Asian Black Hispanic White
Median household income in northeastern Illinois by race and ethnicity, 2019
Note: Data represent the U.S. Census Bureau’s Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metropolitan statistical area.
Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning data, 5-year estimates 2015-19.
Looking ahead
Metropolitan Chicago faces important questions about its post-pandemic future as public health
and economic conditions improve. A lagging recovery post-recession would cause negative
effects to linger, especially among people of color, the leisure and hospitality sector, and small
businesses. ON TO 2050, the region’s long-range plan, emphasizes the need for inclusive
economic growth that reduces inequality and strengthens our resilience in the face of future
downturns. Regional economic development can support durable solutions focused on the
competitiveness of our core assets and responsive to emerging opportunities. Action now can
help to restart growth by strengthening our export-oriented industries, developing robust
career pathways, and reinvesting disinvested communities. CMAP will continue to explore the
pandemic’s effects on the vitality of the region’s economy and to work with partners on
implementing ON TO 2050.
Committee Memo March 22, 2021
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