Cbo 56388 Budgetary Effects Pandemic
Summary
A letter dated June 5, 2020 from Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip L. Swagel to Senator Rick Scott on budgetary effects of the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. It discusses tax deferrals, citing a JCT estimate that CARES Act payroll tax deferral will reduce 2020 revenues by over $200 billion with a net loss of $12 billion. It reports CBO's preliminary projections of a federal deficit of roughly $3.7 trillion in fiscal year 2020 and $2.1 trillion in 2021. The letter lists deficit effects of four pandemic laws, including $1.721 trillion for the CARES Act and $483 billion for the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act. It says PPP subsidy appropriations increase 2020 deficits by $670 billion, and also covers recovery rebates and unemployment insurance changes.
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CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Phillip L. Swagel, Director
U.S. Congress
Washington, DC 20515
June 5, 2020
Honorable Rick Scott
United States Senate
Washington, DC 20510
Re: Budgetary Effects of the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic
Dear Senator:
As you requested, this letter provides information about certain budgetary
effects of the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and the federal government’s
response to it.
Effects of Tax Deferrals on Revenues
First, you asked about federal revenues that will be lost because of tax
deferrals. As you noted, revenues collected since late March have been
much weaker than those collected during the same period last year and also
much weaker than the Congressional Budget Office projected earlier this
year. The lower revenues result in part from the economic disruption
caused by the pandemic, which has reduced wages and other taxable
income, and in part from the government’s actions to address that
disruption.
The federal government’s response included a variety of changes to tax
rules. Some of them reduce the amount of taxes that businesses and
individuals owe; others just allow taxpayers to defer paying taxes.
CBO anticipates that most of the revenues affected by those deferrals will
be collected in July, some will be collected in later years, and some will be
permanently lost. CBO does not have an estimate of the amounts that fall in
each of those categories.
Payroll Taxes. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security
(CARES) Act allows employers to delay their payments of payroll taxes—
until 2021 and 2022—on wages paid from March 27, 2020, through
December 31, 2020. That delay provides additional liquidity to businesses
that may be facing reduced revenues or increased costs as a result of the
www.cbo.gov
Honorable Rick Scott
Page 2
pandemic. In effect, those firms have been provided an interest-free loan
that equals a fraction of their payroll. The firms are obligated to pay half of
the deferred payroll taxes on December 31, 2021, and the remainder on
December 31, 2022.
The staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has estimated that the
delay will reduce tax revenues in 2020 by over $200 billion. But by JCT’s
estimate, most of the payroll taxes deferred under the CARES Act will be
paid in future fiscal years, so the net loss from the delay will be
$12 billion.1 The reason for that loss is that some of the affected firms will
cease operations before they can make their payments, so some of the
deferred taxes will not be paid.
Effect of Business Losses on Tax Liability. The CARES Act also
temporarily modified the rules governing the use of business losses in
determining tax liability. One change allows losses to result in the refund of
income taxes paid for earlier years, not just for the following year, and
another allows losses to reduce tax liability more than would have
otherwise been the case. By allowing losses to be applied now rather than
against future taxes, the changes give businesses liquidity now and increase
the income taxes that they will pay in the future. As with other types of
deferral of tax liability, if a business ceases to exist, its deferred taxes may
not be paid.
Other Taxes. Deadlines for filing returns and paying taxes have been
delayed for many other taxes. The Administration delayed the tax filing and
payment deadlines for individual and corporate income taxes from April 15
to July 15, and it also delayed the due dates for estimated payments during
that period. For excise taxes on wine, beer, distilled spirits, tobacco
products, firearms, and ammunition that were originally due during the
period from March 1, 2020, through July 1, 2020, the Administration
delayed due dates by 90 days. And the Administration is allowing customs
duties on some imports to be deferred for 90 days for businesses facing
significant financial hardship.
CBO expects that most of the revenues that would have otherwise been
paid when taxes were originally due will be paid by the new deadlines. In
1
See Joint Committee on Taxation, Estimated Revenue Effects of the Revenue Provisions
Contained in an Amendment in the Nature of a Substitute to H.R. 748, the “Coronavirus Aid,
Relief, and Economic Security (‘CARES’) Act,” as Passed by the Senate on March 25, 2020, and
Scheduled for Consideration by the House of Representatives on March 27, 2020, JCX-11R-20
(April 23, 2020), https://go.usa.gov/xvQuv.
Honorable Rick Scott
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particular, CBO expects that most of the income tax revenues that would
otherwise have been collected in the period from April through June, when
taxpayers would ordinarily have filed their 2019 returns and made
estimated payments of taxes for 2020, will be paid in July of this year.
However, because some individuals or businesses may become insolvent
and fail to make those payments, the government may not collect all of the
deferred taxes.
Projected Federal Deficits for 2020 and 2021
You also asked how large CBO anticipates the federal deficit will be in
fiscal year 2020. In late April, CBO provided preliminary projections of
federal deficits in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, which took into account
recent events and the enactment of pandemic-related legislation.2 According
to those projections, if laws currently in place governing spending and
revenues generally remained unchanged and no significant additional
emergency funding was provided, the federal deficit would be roughly
$3.7 trillion in fiscal year 2020 and $2.1 trillion next year. (In CBO’s
March baseline projections, deficits were just over $1 trillion in each of
those years.)
Those projected deficits are significantly larger than the budget shortfall in
2019 because of sharply lower revenues and substantially higher
noninterest spending. Even though federal borrowing grows in those
projections, declines in interest rates mean that net interest outlays are
lower in both years than in 2019.
CBO will scrutinize its projections of federal revenues and spending over
the next several months, and the budget outlook in the updated baseline
projections that the agency plans to release in early September of this year
may be significantly different from the estimates described here.
Budgetary Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation
Finally, you asked what provisions enacted into law to respond to the
pandemic were having the largest effects on the federal deficit. CBO has
provided cost estimates for each of the four pandemic-related bills that were
2
See Congressional Budget Office, “CBO’s Current Projections of Output, Employment, and
Interest Rates and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits for 2020 and 2021,” CBO Blog
(April 24, 2020), www.cbo.gov/publication/56335.
Honorable Rick Scott
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enacted through the end of May. The budgetary effects of those bills over
the 2020–2030 period are as follows.
The Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental
Appropriations Act (Public Law 116-123, enacted March 6, 2020) is
estimated to increase deficits by $8 billion.3
The Families First Coronavirus Response Act (P.L. 116-127, enacted
March 18, 2020) is estimated to increase deficits by $192 billion.4
The CARES Act (P.L. 116-136, enacted March 27, 2020) is
estimated to increase deficits by $1.721 trillion.5
The Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement
Act (P.L. 116-139, enacted April 24, 2020) is estimated to increase
deficits by $483 billion.6
Those laws would have the biggest impact on the budget in fiscal year
2020. The policies in those laws with the largest projected effects on
deficits over the 2020–2030 period are as follows.
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provides funding to
guarantee loans, which may be forgiven, to small businesses and
other eligible entities to cover payroll and other eligible costs over
eight weeks. The CARES Act provided a direct appropriation of
$349 billion for the subsidy cost of guaranteeing and delivering
PPP loans in 2020, and the Paycheck Protection Program and
Health Care Enhancement Act increased the subsidy appropriation
3
See Congressional Budget Office, cost estimate for H.R. 6074, the Coronavirus Preparedness and
Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2020 (March 4, 2020),
www.cbo.gov/publication/56227.
4
See Congressional Budget Office, cost estimate for H.R. 6201, the Families First Coronavirus
Response Act (April 2, 2020), www.cbo.gov/publication/56316.
5
See Congressional Budget Office, cost estimate for H.R. 748, the CARES Act, Public Law
116-136 (April 16, 2020), www.cbo.gov/publication/56334.
6
See Congressional Budget Office, cost estimate for H.R. 266, the Paycheck Protection Program
and Health Care Enhancement Act (April 22, 2020), www.cbo.gov/publication/56338.
Honorable Rick Scott
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for PPP by $321 billion in 2020, increasing deficits in that year by a
total of $670 billion.
Recovery Rebates for Individuals, which were provided by the
CARES Act, consist of a refundable tax credit of $1,200 per person
(or $2,400 for joint filers) plus $500 per dependent child under the
age of 17. The credit phases out for taxpayers whose adjusted gross
income is over $75,000 (or $150,000 for joint filers, or $112,000 for
taxpayers filing as heads of households). JCT estimates that the
credits will increase deficits by $292 billion over the 2020–2021
period.7
Changes to unemployment insurance, which were included in the
CARES Act, expand eligibility for unemployment compensation
benefits and increase the weekly benefit amount and the number of
weeks when beneficiaries can claim benefits. Major changes include
creating the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program to
provide weekly benefits to unemployed people affected by the
pandemic who would otherwise be ineligible for unemployment
compensation benefits; temporarily adding $600 to the weekly
benefit amount in unemployment programs; providing an additional
13 weeks of unemployment compensation benefits through the
Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program to
people who have exhausted regular benefits; and federally funding
various other unemployment compensation benefits, as well as
states’ administrative expenses. Overall, CBO estimates that the
changes to unemployment insurance will increase deficits by a total
of $267 billion in 2020 and 2021.
7
See Joint Committee on Taxation, Estimated Revenue Effects of the Revenue Provisions
Contained in an Amendment in the Nature of a Substitute to H.R. 748, the “Coronavirus Aid,
Relief, and Economic Security (‘CARES’) Act,” as Passed by the Senate on March 25, 2020, and
Scheduled for Consideration by the House of Representatives on March 27, 2020, JCX-11R-20
(April 23, 2020), https://go.usa.gov/xvQuv.
Honorable Rick Scott
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I hope this information is useful. Please contact me if you would like
further assistance.
Sincerely,
Phillip L. Swagel
Director
cc: Honorable Mike Enzi
Chairman
Senate Committee on the Budget
Honorable Bernie Sanders
Ranking Member
Senate Committee on the Budget
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