Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses and People: Lessons from the Census Bureau’s Experience
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Working paper CES 21-02 by Catherine Buffington, Jason Fields and Lucia Foster of the "U.S. Census Bureau", dated January 2021, on measuring the impact of COVID-19 on businesses and people. It describes new products: the Small Business Pulse Survey, weekly Business Formation Statistics, the Household Pulse Survey and Community Resilience Estimates. The Small Business Pulse Survey invites more than one million small businesses to participate. For reference year 2020 the Annual Business Survey will ask businesses whether they requested or received federal or other assistance. The paper also describes pandemic changes to the American Community Survey, the Current Population Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation.
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“Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses and People: Lessons from the Census Bureau’s Experience.”
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Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses and People: Lessons from the
Census Bureau’s Experience
by
Catherine Buffington
U.S. Census Bureau
Jason Fields
U.S. Census Bureau
Lucia Foster
U.S. Census Bureau
CES 21-02 January 2021
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Abstract
We provide an overview of Census Bureau activities to enhance the consistency, timeliness, and
relevance of our data products in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We highlight new data
products designed to provide timely and granular information on the pandemic’s impact: the
Small Business Pulse Survey, weekly Business Formation Statistics, the Household Pulse Survey,
and Community Resilience Estimates. We describe pandemic-related content introduced to
existing surveys such as the Annual Business Survey and the Current Population Survey. We
discuss adaptations to ensure the continuity and consistency of existing data products such as
principal economic indicators and the American Community Survey.
*
*
Buffington, Fields, Foster: U.S. Census Bureau, 4600 Silver Hill Rd., Washington, DC 20233 (e-mail:
Catherine.D.Buffington@census.gov, Jason.M.Fields@census.gov, Lucia.S.Foster@census.gov). Any opinions and
conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and not the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census Bureau has
reviewed this data product for unauthorized disclosure of confidential information and has approved the
disclosure avoidance practices applied to this release (Approval ID: CBDRB-FY20-259, CBDRB-FY20-214, CBDRB-
FY20-257). We thank John Abowd, Nick Orsini, Victoria Velkoff, Raphael Bostic, and other participants in the
AEAStat session on Innovations in Measuring the Economic Impacts of COVID 19 for useful comments.
We provide an overview of how the Census Bureau is enhancing the consistency, timeliness,
and relevance of our data products in response to the COVID-19 pandemic when it is critically
important to provide information on the U.S. population and economy. We focus on economic and
household data while acknowledging the extensive efforts to maintain the collection and
dissemination of the decennial census during the pandemic.
New information products developed during the pandemic are derived from two new surveys,
two innovative uses of existing data, and enhancements to existing surveys (including processing
changes). Many of our efforts focus on timeliness and granularity.
High frequency (weekly or bi-weekly) data became especially important as the economic and
social impacts of the pandemic are swift. Granularity is important in order to capture the
differential impacts of the pandemic within and across economic and demographic groups. Our
COVID-19 website brings together many of these products (https://covid19.census.gov/).
Across the Census Bureau, these changes are devised and implemented by expert staff who
continue to demonstrate creative problem solving and adaptability under challenging
circumstances. Partnerships, both new and old, are another essential ingredient in our ability to
provide information during the pandemic.
I. Business and Economic Information
In responding to the need for data on the impact of the pandemic on businesses and the economy,
the Census Bureau leverages its underlying data infrastructure, survey expertise, holdings of
administrative data, and research capabilities.
A. The Small Business Pulse Survey
The Small Business Pulse Survey (SBPS) provides timely, high-frequency, granular data on the
effect of the pandemic on small, single location employer businesses in the U.S. Due to the
pandemic, we are constrained to use electronic contact only, however, this enables faster collection
cycles. The SBPS uses email addresses collected on the Economic Census supplemented by more
recent survey collections to invite more than one million small businesses to participate. Starting
in late April, each of the three phases lasts nine weeks with the target population split to create
weekly nationally representative estimates.
The survey is designed to be quick and easy to answer on any mobile platform in order to
encourage participation. Largely qualitative survey questions are centered on core concepts:
overall effect, operations, challenges, finances, and outlook. Content on business fundamentals is
constant between phases for comparability and longitudinal analysis but topical content can vary
over the collection. Feedback on content is provided by eight agencies. 1
Results are published at national, sectoral, state, and select Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA)
levels providing important insights to differential impacts of the pandemic. Figure 1 shows sectoral
variation in business expectations with responses stacked from most positive (light gray) to most
negative (black) for six sectors. Small businesses in Finance and Insurance have more optimistic
expectations, those in Accommodations and Food Services have more pessimistic.
FIGURE 1. EXPECTED TIME UNTIL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVEL OF OPERATIONS
Note: From the Small Business Pulse Survey for data collected September 6-12, 2020.
B. Weekly Business Formation Statistics
Business Formation Statistics (BFS) have been published quarterly since 2018. The primary data
underlying these series are applications for Employer Identification Numbers to the Internal
Revenue Service which provides them to the Census Bureau.
The Census Bureau accelerated plans to produce the four business applications series from the
BFS at a higher frequency and began publishing weekly in April. High Propensity Business
Applications (HPBA) provides insights into where potential employer businesses may form over
1
The Small Business Administration, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, International Trade Administration, Minority Business
Development Agency, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Telecommunications and Information Administration, Office of Tax Analysis
of the Treasury Department, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. See Buffington et al. (2020) for more information.
the next few years. Usually, more than one-third of HPBA businesses transition into employer
status (see Bayard et al. (2018) for discussion).
Figure 2 plots weekly HPBA for 2019 and 2020. Publishing weekly data provided timely
information on the immediate drop after the pandemic declaration during week 11 (and subsequent
rise) in these applications.
FIGURE 2. WEEKLY HIGH PROPENSITY BUSINESS APPLICATIONS
Note: Data downloaded on November 6, 2020 from https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/csv/bfs_us_apps_weekly_nsa.csv
C. Annual Surveys
The Census Bureau conducts an Economic Census every five years to provide comprehensive
statistics on U.S. business establishments; between Economic Census years, annual sectoral and
cross-sectoral surveys provide national benchmarks and data critical for the construction of the
national accounts by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In order to understand differential impacts
by sector the Census Bureau is researching additional content in future years for selected annual
surveys.
Cross Sectoral Surveys — The 2019 Annual Business Survey surveyed approximately 300,000
employer firms across all non-farm sectors of the economy and contained questions on the ability
of employees to work from home as well as factors that limit this ability. For reference year 2020,
it will ask businesses about the effect of the pandemic on their sales, whether they requested or
received federal or other assistance, as well as dollar amounts applied for and received and the
share of assistance forgiven. The Annual Capital Expenditures Survey, a cross-sector survey of
employer and non-employer firms, will include a question about the receipt of and uses for
government assistance and the impact to payroll in the absence of financial assistance. The Census
Bureau is researching adding questions about changes in capital expenditure plans and capital
expenditures for safety or physical distancing measures.
Sectoral Surveys — The Annual Survey of Manufactures collects information about operations,
revenues and expenses at the manufacturing plant level. Additional content related to measuring
the impact of the coronavirus pandemic is under consideration and may include asking plants how
many days they were closed due to the pandemic; quarterly payroll; additional detail for products
including N95 respirators, soaps, and hand sanitizers; and whether the plant had donated products
and, if so, the dollar value of the donations.
The Service Annual Survey (SAS) collects revenue and expenses data from both taxable and tax-
exempt firms classified in all service sectors of the economy. Currently, it collects revenue
estimates from telemedicine for ambulatory health care services. Given the likely unprecedented
growth in these services during the pandemic, the Census Bureau is researching adding similar
questions for hospitals and nursing homes beginning in reference year 2020.
D. Economic Indicators
The Census Bureau’s economic indicators provide critical information on the U.S. economy at
monthly and quarterly frequencies. The quality of these products rests on many factors including
response rates and the quality of responses. The Census Bureau temporarily added questions to
five of its economic indicator programs to understand the impact of the pandemic on these series
in order to maintain consistency. Businesses were asked whether changes in employment,
temporary closures, or delays in the supply chain had an impact on their reported revenues, sales
or inventories. Permit offices surveyed were asked if temporary closures created backlogs of
permits.
II. Demographic Information
Across the federal statistical system, agencies recognized an urgent need to provide data about
the health, social, and economic characteristics of American households during the COVID-19
pandemic. Given the rapidly changing dynamics of this situation for American households, the
Census Bureau and other federal agencies quickly looked at opportunities to address the pandemic
in current data collections, as well as leveraging infrastructure and resources to address the
emerging data needs.
A. The Household Pulse Survey
Analogous to the SBPS, the Census Bureau addressed a gap in rapid high-frequency household
data during the onset of the pandemic in the United States through the Household Pulse Survey
(HPS) which started collection on April 23. The HPS was developed in collaboration with five
federal agencies 2 to provide timely data on a range of ways in which people’s lives were impacted
by the COVID-19 pandemic: employment status, spending patterns, food security, housing,
physical and mental health, access to healthcare, and educational disruption.
Because all mail-out, telephone center, and in-person interviewing was suspended due to the
pandemic, the HPS employed an internet collection protocol. Utilizing a survey platform
previously only used for research and survey development at the Census Bureau, and
supplementing the Master Address File household sampling frame with email and mobile
telephone numbers from the Census Contact Frame, the Census Bureau developed an ad hoc rapid-
response framework for the HPS. As of this writing, there have been three phases of the HPS:
phase 1 (data collection was conducted for 12 cycles from April 23 through July 21); phase 2
(conducted August 19 through October 26 and included additional content and agency
partnerships 3); and phase 3 (conducted October 28 through March 1).
The data collected enables the Census Bureau and partner agencies to produce statistics for the
nation, at the state level, and for the 15 largest MSA, providing insights into how household
experiences changed during the pandemic over time and place. For example, Figure 3 shows the
mental health impact of the pandemic through the experience of anxiousness for adults in
households with and without children for several periods.
2
The Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the National Center for Health Statistics, the
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Office of Management and Budget.
See Fields et al. (2020) for more information.
3
The Social Security Administration and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics joined as new partners for Phase 2.
FIGURE 3. ANXIOUSNESS FOR ADULTS 18+ DURING WEEKS 1, 4, 8, AND 12 BY PRESENCE OF CHILDREN
Note: From the Household Pulse Survey for data collected between April 23, 2020 and September 14, 2020.
B. Community Resilience Estimates
In June 2020, the Census Bureau released a new experimental tract-level and county-level data
product, Community Resilience Estimates (CRE). The CRE provides a measure of an area’s ability
to withstand the health, social, and economic impacts of a disaster such as a hurricane or pandemic.
Underlying the CRE is the understanding that heterogenous outcomes following a disaster, such
as a pandemic, can depend critically on individual and household characteristics. Accounting for
these differences in characteristics concerning the capacity and resources to overcome challenges
is thus critical. The CRE’s granular data captures the differential abilities of these communities.
Thus the CRE provides a critical tool for disaster preparedness enabling policymakers (such as
public health officials) to effectively deploy resources as needed in response to a disaster and to
plan for future disasters.
As with the weekly BFS, the CRE represents a new product created from existing data holdings
at the Census Bureau. In this case, the CRE relies upon individual and household characteristics
from the 2018 American Community Survey (ACS) and publicly available data from the 2018
National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). These data products were combined in a model that
allows the Census Bureau to provide tract and county-level estimates of resilience without
imposing additional respondent burden.
C. Existing Surveys
Collection of household surveys was significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic since
surveys that relied upon in-person visits from field staff shifted to telephone contact, with field
staff trying to reach respondents from home. This change was required for Census Bureau
sponsored surveys as well as surveys conducted by the Census Bureau for other agencies.
American Community Survey. — The American Community Survey (ACS) provides detailed
population and housing information. The ACS program revised messaging, altered the mailout
strategy, and made sampling adjustments to accommodate the National Processing Center’s
staffing limitations. The Computer Assisted Personal Interview operation was limited to
conducting only telephone interviews for a few months. The decision to conduct telephone only
interviews impacted the Group Quarters operation which relies on personal visits to collect data.
Current Population Survey. — The Current Population Survey (CPS), sponsored jointly by the
Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), serves as the primary source of labor
force statistics for the U.S. population and provides information on other important topics such as
education.
At the request of NCES, one of the co-sponsors of the School Enrollment Supplement, the
Census Bureau added seven questions in order to provide information on how the coronavirus
pandemic impacts schooling at an individual child level (for example, the availability of computers
or other digital devices for educational purposes). In addition, concerns about the coronavirus
were added as an answer category for two questions in the November Voting Supplement.
Survey of Income and Program Participation. — The Survey of Income and Program Participation
(SIPP) is a household survey that provides longitudinal monthly data. Data collection for the SIPP
was severely affected by the pandemic; the SIPP shifted from personal-visit data collection mode
to decentralized telephone collection. SIPP also developed new content related to the pandemic
including the receipt and use of economic stimulus payments, unemployment compensation due
to COVID-19, school meal changes due to COVID-19, retirement planning and changes, and
missed or deferred rent/mortgage payment due to COVID-19.
Answer lists and help text were modified in the program receipt, labor force, assets, and health
and disability sections to specify how COVID-19 reasons should be handled. Data collected from
the 2021 SIPP will provide monthly information on the intersection between employment, program
use, health, and family dynamics for the full 2020 calendar year.
III. Looking Forward
The Census Bureau’s rapid response to the pandemic has highlighted a capability for flexible
production that can be applied to other emergency situations and has demonstrated an agile
accommodation for the suspension of in-person interviewing from March - July 2020. Many of
these innovations will be useful as the Census Bureau navigates its way to a new normal. There
remain important data gaps that research and development activities at the Census Bureau are
addressing. These include more timely measures of business deaths, enhanced collections on
business expectations, and increasing our use of administrative or even blended third party data to
produce high frequency statistics.
REFERENCES
Bayard, Kimberly, Emin Dinlersoz, Timothy Dunne, John Haltiwanger, Javier Miranda, and John
Stevens. 2018. “Early Stage Business Formation: An Analysis of Applications for Employer
Identification Numbers,” NBER Working Paper, 24364.
Buffington, Catherine, Carrie Dennis, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, and Shawn Klimek. 2020.
“Measuring the Effect of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: The Small Business Pulse
Survey,” Center for Economic Studies Working Paper, 20-16.
Fields, Jason, Jennifer Hunter-Childs, Anthony Tersine, Jeffrey Sisson, Eloise Parker, Victoria
Velkoff, Cassandra Logan, and Hyon Shin. Forthcoming. “Design and Operation of the 2020
Household Pulse Survey, 2020,” U.S. Census Bureau.
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