Applying For And Receiving Unemployment Insurance Benefits During The Coronavirus Pandemic
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Summary
A California Policy Lab policy brief dated November 19, 2020, An Analysis of Unemployment Insurance Claims in California During the COVID-19 Pandemic, based on daily claims data from the state's Employment Development Department and reporting claims through October 31st. The brief states that 8.6 million unique California claimants, or 44% of the workforce, have filed for UI benefits since mid-March, and that over 3.3 million claimants were paid benefits for the week ending October 17th. It projects that an estimated 750,000 Californians will run out of benefits at the end of December unless legislation extends emergency programs. It reports that over 83% of the Black labor force has filed for benefits and that additional claims now represent 80% of initial claims. The brief includes weekly claims tables, benefit levels and exhaustion projections.
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POLICY BRIEF NOVEMBER 19, 2020
An Analysis of Unemployment Insurance Claims in
California During the COVID-19 Pandemic
ALEX BELL, THOMAS J. HEDIN, GEOFFREY SCHNORR, and TILL VON WACHTER
SUMMARY
Since the start of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020 nearly 45% of the California workforce has filed
for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits — a labor market crisis unprecedented in the state’s history.
This series of policy briefs uses close to real-time information on daily initial UI claims in California from
the state's Employment Development Department to better understand the magnitude of COVID-19’s
labor market impacts and how different types of workers are experiencing these impacts. This research
is based on a partnership between the Labor Market Information Division of the California Employment
Development Department and the California Policy Lab, a research center at the University of California,
with sites at the UCLA and Berkeley campuses.
Relative to the brief published on September 15th, this brief report presents new measures of the number of individuals that
sheds new light on benefit exhaustions (people using up are receiving UI benefits for a particular week of unemployment
all of their UI benefits). The report updates counts of the and their breakdown by demographics and industry.
number of unique Californians who have filed initial claims
since the onset of the crisis, and provides a demographic
Key Insights from September through November
breakdown of these claimants. To help assess the current
state of the economy, the report also tracks the number of • The number of workers receiving unemployment
Californians repeatedly laid off (“additional claims”) and those benefits remains alarmingly high. Over 3.3 million
exiting the program each week, and shows the net effect on claimants, or 17% of the state’s labor force in February,
the number of individuals currently receiving UI benefits by were paid benefits for unemployment experienced
demographic and industry group. The brief reports information in the week ending October 17th. Since the start of
on Unemployment Insurance claims through October 31st. the COVID-19 crisis in mid-March, 8.6 million unique
The brief covers a longer time period than our usual monthly California claimants, or 44% of the California workforce,
reports due to the freeze in new UI claims in California from have filed for UI benefits.
September 20th through October 4th. • An estimated 750,000 Californians will abruptly
The first half of the report focuses on initial claims for UI run out of UI benefits at the end of December
benefits originating from claimants residing in California, unless additional legislation is passed to extend
including Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) claims, emergency programs past Christmas. Pandemic
the federal program to expand eligibility for those that do not Unemployment Insurance (PUA) is set to expire on
qualify for regular UI benefits. In this policy brief, we will refer December 26th, which we project will result in a
to these claims as “initial UI claims.”1 The second half of the sudden stop of benefits to more than a half-million
1 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
PUA claimants still likely to be unemployed if current and about 1 in 5 recent continuing claims was paid to a
conditions persist. Also at year’s end, nearly 170,000 worker in this industry. Denials due to excess earnings
regular UI claimants will abruptly lose benefits as the remained low, whereas a substantial 17% of payments
federal emergency extension for regular (Pandemic to workers from this industry were for partial UI, a sign
Emergency Unemployment Compensation, PEUC) UI that employers may be using hours reductions rather
expires. As a result, in January 2021, there will be $173 than permanent layoffs to combat uncertainty.
million fewer federal dollars coming into California's
• New initial claims plummeted following EDD’s
economy every week ($131.7 million less from PUA
freeze on accepting new claims (to address a
expiring; $41.5 million less from PEUC expiring).2
backlog and implement fraud prevention measures)
• A second wave of exhaustions is expected to crest from September 20th through October 4th. The
in mid-May of next year, as the second extension decline was particularly pronounced among Pandemic
begins to run out. By the end of May, an additional Unemployment Assistance (PUA) claimants. PUA claims
390,000 regular UI claimants are projected to exhaust accounted for nearly two-thirds of initial claims in
the 59 weeks of benefits made possible through September, but only 15% of new claims filed in the last
Federal-State Extended Duration (Fed-Ed) extensions. week of October.
If current conditions persist between now and May,
Note: This policy brief was first published on April 29,
projections indicate nearly one-fifth of current regular
2020, and is updated regularly as additional information
claimants are likely to have exhausted benefits prior to
on UI claims becomes available. Administrative data
finding work. The rates of predicted benefit exhaustion
sources such as these sometimes get revised, and
differ by demographic group.
the numbers in this policy brief should be taken as
• The pandemic’s disparate impact by race is evident preliminary.
among UI claimants. Over 83% of the Black labor
force has filed for unemployment benefits since the
beginning of the pandemic in mid-March. In the week
Table of Contents
ending October 17th alone, about one-third of the Analysis of Initial Claims. .............................................................................................3
Black labor force filed a continuing claim. Both of
these statistics are nearly twice the state-wide average. Benefit levels. ..................................................................................................................5
Among Black claimants, more than 1 in 4 are expected Demographic and Industry Breakdown of Initial Claims....................6
to have run out of benefits by mid-May (in contrast to 1
in 5 among average claimant). Demographics. ...............................................................................................................6
• There is a large amount of churn in and out of Industries...........................................................................................................................8
the UI program. Additional claims by workers that
Analysis of Continuing Claims. .............................................................................13
had exited UI to take a job but were laid off again
drove initial claims above the peak level experienced Partial UI and Denials. .............................................................................................15
during the Great Recession and now represent 80% of
initial claims. At the same time, the exit rate from the Demographic & Industry Breakdown of Continuing Claims.........16
program has risen, and the total number of individuals Recall and Exits by Program...................................................................................20
receiving UI benefits has steadily fallen since early
August. Recall..................................................................................................................................20
• UI remains a lifeline for employees in hard-hit Exits.....................................................................................................................................23
service sectors, particularly as virus cases surge. In
Projected Exhaustion. .................................................................................................26
September, the Accommodation and Food Services
Industry accounted for nearly a quarter of initial claims, Appendix..............................................................................................................................32
2 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Analysis of Initial Claims Once a claimant has exhausted their regular benefits (which
last for 26 weeks for most Californians), he or she can
Californians filed a total of 198,847 initial Unemployment
transition to the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment
Insurance (UI) claims in the week ending October 31st
Compensation (PEUC) program, which provides up to 13
in California (Table 1). Only 15% of initial claims in the
weeks of additional benefits. New claims under PEUC, which
most recent week were filed under the Pandemic
are automatically filed by EDD for eligible exhaustees, began
Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program, down from
to ramp up most noticeably during the week of September
63% at its peak in the end of August. The number of initial
19th. PEUC is the first of two temporary federal extension
regular claims in the week ending October 31st (169,007)
programs to increase the length of regular UI benefits,
is still greater than the single worst week of the Great
discussed in greater detail in our Exhaustions section.
Recession (the week ending January 9th, 2010), when
California recorded 115,000 initial regular UI claims (Figure 1). Accounting for both PUA and regular UI programs, 44.5%
of the entire labor force in California has now filed for
While initial claims for PUA have fallen precipitously since
Unemployment Insurance benefits at some point since the
September, the number of new initial claims for regular UI
start of the crisis. This number counts the number of unique
has also been decreasing, albeit more gradually. Additional
individuals that have filed an initial claim, as opposed to a
claims, which occur when at least one week of certification
simple summation of all weekly initial claims, which would
is skipped due to a return to work, followed by a subsequent
double-count many individuals—e.g., any claimant that filed at
re-opening of the claim before the benefit year expires, now
least one additional claim, or the majority of PUA claimants
make up the vast majority of initial claims. These additional
(since most PUA claimants must prove ineligibility for regular
claims made up 80% of all claims during the week ending
UI by filing a regular UI claim and being denied for it before
October 31st. Figure 1 and Table 1 show the number of
their separate PUA claim can be accepted). In fact, counting
additional claimants has held fairly steady around 160,000
cumulated initial claims overestimates the “share of the labor
claims per week in the four weeks prior.
force” filing a claim by over 23 percentage points (Table 2).3
FIGURE 1: Weekly Initial UI Claims (including PUA) During the COVID-19 Crisis in California, 2/22/2020–10/31/2020
3 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
TABLE 1: Weekly Initial UI Claims During the COVID-19 Crisis in California, 3/21/2020–10/31/2020
CUMULATED UNIQUE
NEW INITIAL PUA CLAIMS AS CUMULATED CLAIMANTS AS
WEEK CLAIMS FOR NEW INITIAL PUA % OF ALL INITIAL ADDITIONAL NEW UNIQUE UNIQUE PERCENT OF FEB
ENDING REGULAR UI CLAIMS CLAIMS CLAIMS CLAIMANTS CLAIMANTS LABOR FORCE
Mar 21 140,707 — — 44,337 183,095 183,095 0.9
Mar 28 1,017,477 — — 38,768 1,051,856 1,234,951 6.4
Apr 04 878,836 — — 35,939 893,285 2,128,236 11.0
Apr 11 592,344 — — 58,992 597,489 2,725,725 14.0
Apr 18 435,254 — — 88,448 443,993 3,169,718 16.3
Apr 25 243,228 — — 78,479 249,483 3,419,201 17.6
May 02 232,911 296,183 48.7 81,772 360,800 3,780,001 19.5
May 09 157,863 135,681 39.5 53,869 232,283 4,012,284 20.6
May 16 181,691 111,815 32.3 64,373 245,107 4,257,391 21.9
May 23 126,390 91,468 32.4 79,106 188,196 4,445,587 22.9
May 30 117,239 71,890 25.4 115,480 170,508 4,616,095 23.8
Jun 06 132,276 70,212 22.6 133,760 186,324 4,802,419 24.7
Jun 13 101,573 68,204 23.2 149,911 157,559 4,959,978 25.5
Jun 20 141,135 83,815 23.8 152,901 209,536 5,169,514 26.6
Jun 27 120,905 89,901 25.8 166,295 197,141 5,366,655 27.6
Jul 04 116,984 87,079 26.1 156,667 188,795 5,555,450 28.6
Jul 11 123,916 102,230 27.8 171,510 208,622 5,764,072 29.7
Jul 18 122,178 117,232 30.2 178,122 217,085 5,981,157 30.8
Jul 25 105,865 122,289 34.6 147,917 214,811 6,195,968 31.9
Aug 01 93,846 107,676 34.0 137,483 190,689 6,386,657 32.9
Aug 08 80,274 100,131 34.6 132,529 168,648 6,555,305 33.7
Aug 15 71,373 131,894 41.9 130,672 193,049 6,748,354 34.7
Aug 22 75,558 217,094 53.0 133,992 282,340 7,030,694 36.2
Aug 29 109,911 368,524 62.8 121,396 460,835 7,491,529 38.6
Sep 05 101,164 405,028 62.7 154,360 493,516 7,985,045 41.1
Sep 12 74,119 178,305 44.9 165,063 243,391 8,228,436 42.3
Sep 19 82,260 82,310 28.3 157,442 153,570 8,382,006 43.1
Sep 26 46,745 33,011 18.6 135,937 72,487 8,454,493 43.5
Oct 03 12,505 6,317 8.6 152,096 16,098 8,470,591 43.6
Oct 10 41,081 16,386 11.7 152,112 48,872 8,519,463 43.8
Oct 17 29,255 15,046 12.4 150,999 36,830 8,556,293 44.0
Oct 24 25,501 15,626 13.2 149,697 33,205 8,589,498 44.2
Oct 31 23,456 14,756 15.3 160,635 30,668 8,620,166 44.4
4 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 2: Median Weekly Benefit Amounts of Initial Claimants for Regular Unemployment Insurance Relative to Department
of Housing and Community Development Thresholds, 2/29/2020 - 10/31/2020
Median Weekly Benefit Amount ($)
Of Initial Claimants
1,200
1,000 Median Weekly Benefit Amount + $600 FPUC
Low Income Threshold (Single Person HH)
800
600
FPUC PAYMENTS
Very Low Income Theshold (Single Person HH)
400
Median Weekly Benefit Amount
200
0
Feb 22 Mar 21 Apr 18 May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31
Filed in Week Ending
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays. Median weekly benefit calculation excludes claimants receiving no benefits.
California Median Family Income (MFI) is $86,165 (Census, 2018 ACS). Using $86,165/52 weeks gives $1,657/week.
Low Income and Very Low Income definitions from CA Department of Housing and Community Development are fractions of MFI:
hcd.ca.gov/grants-funding/income-limits/state-and-federal-income-limits/docs/Income-Limits-2020.pdf
Median Weekly Benefit Amount based on initial claims for regular UI, and does not include claims from Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.
Some individuals will be eligible to receive a Lost Wages Assistance supplement of $300 for unemployment experienced between July 26th
and August 29th. Since only some individuals (with WBA > $100) receive this benefit, it is not shown in the figure.
Benefit Levels
In California, most claimants found to be eligible are paid 50% One can further compare how households of different
of average weekly earnings in a base period in benefits, up to demographic groups might fare under these scenarios by
a maximum of $450 per week.4 The median weekly benefit examining the WBA’s shown in Table 8. We see that the
amount (WBA) for all initial claimants between October median WBA for initial claimants in the last two weeks
18th through October 31st projected to qualify for regular (October 18th– October 31st) was lower for women, less
UI benefits was $345 per week.5 Figure 2 shows how benefit educated claimants, younger claimants, and non-White
levels have evolved over the course of the pandemic. claimants, a pattern which held even before the COVID-19
crisis.
Our recent Data Point highlights both how the extra
$300 payments from the Lost Wages Assistance program Similarly, median WBAs for initial claimants differed substantially
temporarily helped Californians, and how 192,000 across industries prior to the crisis, reflecting differences in
Californians were excluded from this benefit due to federal wage levels (Table 9). While higher-earning industries have
eligibility restrictions. While the Employment Development seen median WBAs stay steady at or near the $450 maximum
Department had secured federal funding for six weeks of throughout the crisis (i.e., Professional., Scientific, and Technical
payments,6 any unemployment experienced after September Services, Construction, and the Information industry), lower-
5th is ineligible for these additional payments. earnings industries who are not affected by the maximum
threshold have seen their median WBAs vary with time,
To put these benefit amounts into perspective, one can
indicating a changing composition of workers filing claims
compare benefit amounts to California’s 2020 state income
within the industry. For example, the median WBA for an initial
limits, which are used for eligibility determinations of various
claimant from the Accommodation and Food Services industry
government programs.7 Table A1, in the Appendix, illustrates
was $282 in February, but averaged just $250 over the course of
income classifications dependent upon on the size of
the crisis, indicating those impacted by the crisis earned lower
households, the WBA, and the number of people receiving
wages than those claiming benefits before the crisis.
these benefits in the household.
5 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 3: Distribution of Initial UI Claims (including PUA) by Generation, 2/22/2020 -10/31/2020
Percent of Initial UI Claims
50
Millenials (24-39)
40
30
Gen X (40-55)
20
Baby Boomers (56+)
Gen Z (16-23)
10
0
Feb 22 Mar 21 Apr 18 May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31
Processed in Week Ending
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays.
This figure combines initial claims to regular UI and Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).
Demographic and Industry Breakdown Figures 3, 4, 5, and 6 show trends in demographics of initial
UI applicants. The age distribution of initial claimants had
of Initial Claims
shifted substantially during August, but at present roughly
Demographics mirrors the distribution of earlier in the summer. Similarly,
the racial distribution of claimants also changed abruptly in
The COVID-19 crisis in the labor market continues to have a
late August and early September, but now appears more
disproportionate impact on women, younger workers, lower-
similar to earlier months of the pandemic. A sudden surge
educated workers, Hispanic workers, and Black workers.
of claims from applicants identifying as Black, White, or
By October 31st, 47.6% of women in the labor force have Unknown/Other – most concentrated in PUA but also
filed initial UI claims for regular UI or PUA since the start of present among regular UI – has subsided (Figure 5).
the crisis in mid-March, compared to 41.5% of men (Table
Reported educational attainments had also changed during
2).8 Younger workers as well as Black workers have also
the rush of claims in late August but is returning to prior
experienced very high rates of initial claims relative to the
levels (Figure 6). We observe self-reported education for
size of their respective labor force. Including PUA claimants,
regular UI applicants only, as this information is not collected
over 83% of the Black labor force has filed for unemployment
on PUA applications. Not including PUA claimants, 51% of
benefits since the beginning of the crisis – far above the
workers with a high school degree or less have filed for UI
statewide average of 44% (Table 2). Not counting PUA claims,
benefits over the course of the pandemic, compared to just
42% of the Black labor force has filed a regular UI claim,
13% of those with a Bachelor’s degree or more (Table 3).
which is still far above the statewide average of 27% (Table 2).
6 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 4: Share of Initial UI Claims (including PUA) During the COVID-19 Crisis in California by Race and Ethnicity,
2/22/2020–10/31/2020
% of Initial UI Claims
50% of Initial UI Claims
50 EDD began
processing
EDD began
processing
PUA claims
duringPUA claims
the week
40 during
ending Maythe2nd
week
40 ending May 2nd
Hispanic
Hispanic
30 White
30 White
20
20
Unkown/Other
Unkown/Other
Asian
Asian
10 10
Black
Black
0 0
Feb 22
Feb 22 Mar 21
Mar 21 AprApr
18 18 MayMay
16 16 JunJun
1313 JulJul1111 Aug
Aug88 Sep
Sep55 Oct 3 Oct 31
Oct 31
Processed
ProcessedininWeek
WeekEnding
Ending
X-axis labelslabels
X-axis correspond to to
correspond Saturdays.
Saturdays.
This This
figurefigure
combines initialinitial
combines claims to to
claims regular UI UI
regular andand
Pandemic Unemployment
Pandemic Assitance
Unemployment Assitance(PUA).
(PUA).
FIGURE 5: Trends in the Demographic Characteristics of Initial non-PUA Claimants, 4/26/2020 -10/31/2020
Percent of Initial Regular (Non-PUA) Claimants Who are Male Percent of Initial Regualar (Non-PUA) Claims From Each Generation
60 50
Millenials (24-39)
40
55
30
Gen X (40-55)
50
20
Male Baby Boomers (56+)
Gen Z (16-23)
45
10
40 0
May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31 May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31
Filed in Week Ending Filed in Week Ending
Percent of Initial Regular (Non-PUA) Claims From Each Racial Group
60
50
40 Hispanic
30 White
20
Asian
10 Unknown/Other
Black
0
May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31
Filed in Week Ending
Unknown/Other is composed mostly of claimants who do not provide a racial category
when filing for benefits, but also some claimants who identify as Native American or Alaskan
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays.
7 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 6: Share of Initial UI Claims During the COVID-19 Crisis in California by Education Group, 2/29/2020–10/31/2020
% of Initial
Regular UI Claims
80
70
60
HS or Less
50
40
30 Some College
20
Bachelor's or More
10
0
Feb 22 Mar 21 Apr 18 May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31
Processed in Week Ending
X-axis Labels Correspond to Saturdays.
Our data do not contain education levels for claimants for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), and thus these claimants are not included.
This figure does not include transitions to extensions such as PEUC.
Industries slowly, as the vast majority of initial claims from the industry
in recent weeks have been additional claims. Retail Trade and
To assess the impact of COVID-19 on different industries in the Health Care and Social Assistance industries have each
California we categorize claimants by the major NAICS code accounted for over half a million unique claimants.
associated with the primary employer in their base period.9
To better understand the employment dynamics of
Because PUA claimants do not report all of the relevant
different industries, we also analyzed the share of claims
information, we exclude PUA claims from this analysis.
that are additional by industry. Statewide, the share
Recent initial claims have continued to be concentrated in a
of non-PUA claims that are additional is 86%. Figure 8
few industries. Although Accommodation and Food Services
presents breakdowns of additional claims by industry. The
has always comprised a large share of initial claims, this
industries with the highest share of additional claims are
industry’s share of all initial claims spiked in early September.
Accommodation and Food Services and Arts, Entertainment,
During the week of September 19th, nearly one-in-four initial
Recreation – in which 94% of new UI claims come from
claims came from workers in Accommodation and Food
workers who are re-opening previous, unexpired UI claims.
Services (Figure 7).
The high rate of additional claims, combined with the overall
Table 4 shows how the shares of the labor forces in high number of initial claims from this industry, suggests
various industries have been affected. 62% of the Arts, that many prior claimants in this industry who had found
Entertainment, and Recreation industry workforce has filed re-employment are finding that employment to be especially
at least one regular UI claim since March 15th, along with unstable, and many eventually return to UI. Other industries
67% of the Education Services workforce. Accommodation with high shares of additional claims include Education
and Food Services has seen the largest number of unique Services, Retail Trade, and Information. Conversely, in
claimants, with more than 800,000 unique individuals filing industries such as Finance and Insurance and Administrative
regular UI claims since the start of the crisis. Note that while Support, Waste Management, and Remediation, a lower
the Accommodation and Food services industry accounts share of new initial claims came from workers who had
for a large number of initial claims each week, the number recently been unemployed.
of unique claimants from the industry increases much more
8 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
TABLE 2: Total Claims Since March 15th, By Demographic Group
UNIQUE
TOTAL UNIQUE CLAIMANTS
UNIQUE CLAIMANTS UNIQUE AS %
ACCUMULATED INITIAL FOR REGULAR CLAIMANTS FEBRUARY OF LABOR
GROUP INITIAL CLAIMS CLAIMANTS UI FOR PUA LABOR FORCE FORCE
Statewide 13,161,603 8,620,166 5,510,340 3,109,826 19,430,000 44.4
By Gender
Female 6,642,939 4,199,112 2,803,040 1,396,072 8,824,000 47.6
Male 6,498,961 4,404,268 2,694,714 1,709,554 10,605,000 41.5
By Age Group
16–19 470,910 340,584 237,539 103,045 531,000 64.1
20–24 1,701,678 1,096,781 876,869 219,912 1,741,000 63.0
25–34 3,407,419 2,155,961 1,529,211 626,750 4,780,000 45.1
35–44 2,538,308 1,628,470 988,248 640,222 4,303,000 37.8
45–54 2,271,514 1,473,890 866,711 607,179 3,904,000 37.8
55–64 1,893,028 1,243,454 722,239 521,215 3,019,000 41.2
65–85 766,967 607,542 281,686 325,856 1,152,000 52.7
By Generation
Gen Z (16-23) 1,808,047 1,206,425 274,055 1,867,246 64.6 64.6
Millennials (24-39) 5,134,392 3,253,873 1,003,437 7,411,296 43.9 32.0
Gen X (40-55) 3,673,374 2,381,778 979,721 6,330,323 37.6 37.6
Baby Boomers (56+) 2,434,045 1,670,705 771,072 3,821,136 43.7 43.7
By Race and Ethnicity
White 4,310,478 2,917,081 1,129,837 7,569,542 38.5 38.5
Hispanic 4,019,875 2,414,041 394,349 7,365,929 32.8 32.8
Asian 1,713,393 1,063,720 242,614 3,060,800 34.8 34.8
Black 1,117,551 876,585 443,123 1,047,281 83.7 83.7
Notes: Claims refers to initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and regular unemployment insurance (UI) benefits among California residents. Tabulations based
on initial UI claims file. Table excludes claimants not reporting Gender. White and Black do not include those identifying as Hispanic. Table does not show information on
claimants for whom race is unknown, specified as 'other', or specified as Native American or Alaskan Natives, due to small sample sizes.
9 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
TABLE 3: Unique Regular UI Claimants During the COVID-19 Crisis by Education Level and Demographic Group
Some College or
High School or Less Associates Degree Bachelor's or More
UNIQUE UNIQUE UNIQUE
CLAIMANTS PERCENT CLAIMANTS PERCENT CLAIMANTS PERCENT
SINCE MARCH OF GROUP ’S CLAIMS SINCE OF GROUP ’S CLAIMS SINCE OF GROUP ’S
GROUP 15TH LABOR FORCE MARCH 15TH LABOR FORCE MARCH 15TH LABOR FORCE
Statewide 3,364,948 51.1 1,615,279 31.8 988,924 12.7
By Gender
Female 1,426,331 55.2 829,363 32.6 511,894 13.8
Male 1,568,947 39.6 675,398 25.2 417,693 10.6
By Race and Ethnicity
Asian 382,057 75.6 211,750 37.6 217,375 11.0
Black 250,299 99.1 129,990 35.2 49,693 12.2
Hispanic 1,330,239 32.4 520,495 25.8 144,952 12.2
White 808,709 52.0 520,700 24.8 440,432 11.4
Age
Gen Z (16-23) 572,964 70.2 294,854 36.1 54,080 23.2
Millenials (24-38) 1,172,077 51.6 633,904 32.3 420,675 13.2
Gen X (40-55) 762,671 34.4 351,326 23.5 269,219 10.3
Baby Boomers (56+) 479,361 39.2 222,652 22.9 183,656 11.4
Notes: Unique Claimants refers to the number of different individuals who have filed initial claims for regular unemployment insurance (UI) benefits since March 15th.
Tabulations based on initial UI claims file. Table does not includes PUA claims. For a definition of unique claimants, see the note to Table 1.
10 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 7: Share of Initial UI Claims (Excluding PUA) From Most Impacted Industries During the COVID-19 Crisis
in California, 2/22/2020 - 10/31/2020
Percent of Weekly Initial UI Claims
30
25
20
Accom. & Food Services
15
Retail Trade
Health Care/Social Asst.
10
Admin. Supp./Waste Mgmt.
Manufacturing
5
0
Feb 22 Mar 21 Apr 18 May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31
Processed in Week Ending
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays.
This figures is based on initial claims for regular UI. It does not include information from claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, most of which were self-employed.
Additional claims are included.
FIGURE 8: Share of Initial UI Claims Which are Additional by Select Industries During the COVID-19 Crisis in
California, 2/8/2020 10/31/2020
Percent of Initial Claims Which Are Additional
100 Arts, Entertainment, Recreation
Accom. & Food Services
90 Retail Trade
Health Care/Social Asst.
Statewide
80 Manufacturing
Admin. Supp./Waste Mgmt.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Feb 22 Mar 21 Apr 18 May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31
Filed in Week Ending
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays. This figure does not include PUA claims. Only select industries are shown.
Additional claims are claims where an initial claim has already been opened, the claimant has missed at least one week of certification, then re-opened
the claim before the benefit year has expired. Transitional claims are excluded from this calculation.
11 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
TABLE 4: Initial Regular UI Claims During the COVID-19 Crisis and Total UI Claims as a Fraction of Labor Force by Major
Industry
UNIQUE UNIQUE
CLAIMANTS WORKERS CLAIMANTS
WEEK WEEK WEEK SINCE IN LABOR AS %
MAJOR INDUSTRY ENDING ENDING ENDING MARCH FORCE IN OF LABOR
(2 DIGIT NAICS) OCT 17TH OCT 24TH OCT 31ST 15TH FEBRUARY FORCE
Accommodation and Food Services 26,544 24,570 26,455 809,477 1,724,000 47.0
Retail Trade 20,973 20,079 20,201 641,433 1,654,500 38.8
Health Care and Social Assistance 19,265 18,694 18,559 587,465 2,461,900 23.9
Admin. Support, Waste Man. (a) 11,734 11,348 11,421 391,585 1,143,700 34.2
Manufacturing 10,236 10,143 10,315 302,457 1,318,500 22.9
Construction 10,711 10,498 10,828 274,744 896,400 30.6
Education Services 9,614 9,508 9,214 263,307 393,100 67.0
Prof., Scientific, Techn. Services (a) 7,621 7,348 7,457 241,976 1,357,200 17.8
Other Services 7,271 7,337 7,603 226,910 581,300 39.0
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation 5,768 5,869 6,162 208,093 332,500 62.6
Transportation, Warehousing and 6,943 6,513 6,557 188,947 718,300 26.3
Utilities
Wholesale Trade 4,399 4,407 4,370 173,288 689,700 25.1
Information 7,332 7,256 7,306 144,427 586,600 24.6
Real Estate and Leasing 2,263 2,223 2,367 83,702 305,300 27.4
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing (a) 5,585 5,517 5,412 78,488 431,100 18.2
Finance and Insurance 1,668 1,597 1,624 61,675 544,100 11.3
Public Administration 1,504 1,446 1,543 43,944 2,629,700 1.7
Management 711 701 717 24,417 252,900 9.7
Mining, Oil and Gas 170 219 208 5,114 22,800 22.4
Column Total 160,142 155,054 158,111 4,746,335 18,020,800 26.3
Notes: Claims refer to initial claims for regular unemployment insurance (UI) benefits among California residents. Tabulations based on initial UI claims file. Industry
of main employer prior to layoff was obtained from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages according to North American Industrial Classification Systems
(Naics, see https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm). Column Total excludes unclassified NAICS codes and those with unreported NAICS codes.
(a) Full Names of Sectors: Administrative Support, Waste Management, and Remediation. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting. Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Services.
12 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 9A: All Claims: Total Number of Individuals Paid Benefits by Week of Unemployment, Total Number of Individuals Certifying
for Benefits by Week of Certification, and Total Number Payments Certified by Week of Certification, 2/8/2020- 10/31/2020
11,000,000
10,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
Number of Payments Certified
5,000,000 (By Week of Certification)
4,000,000
Number of Individuals Paid Benefits
3,000,000 (By Week of Unemployment)
Number of Individuals Certifying
2,000,000 (By Week of Certification)
1,000,000
0
Feb 22 Mar 21 Apr 18 May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31
Week Ending
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays.
The "Number of Payments Certified" refers to the number of payments that were certified during a given week (the common definition of continued UI claims).
The "Number of Individuals Certifying" refers to the number of people that certify for UI benefits in a given week.
This figure includes claimants receiving benefits for regular UI, PUA, and PEUC.
Analysis of Continuing Claims that they are requesting payment for, (notably including
whether they had any earnings in the relevant week). We
In this section, we report original estimates of the total
call individuals that complete certification and are either paid
number of individuals eligible to receive benefits based on the
UI benefits for a given week, or who could have received
week in which they experienced unemployment. Published
benefits if not for excess earnings in that week, “potentially
UI statistics typically show the total number of UI payments
eligible claimants.” Importantly, at the time of certification
that were “certified” in a given week, not the number of UI
these weeks are in the past. This means that measures
recipients who were actually unemployed in a given week.
of UI receipt which count certifications in each week (i.e.,
Since individuals can certify for payments for multiple weeks
“continued claims”) reflect unemployment experienced for
retroactively, both the level and the timing of this measure
various time periods that are at least 1-2 weeks prior to
(often called “continuing claims”) may not accurately
those certifications.
reflect the number of individuals actually receiving benefits
in that timeframe. Our measure sidesteps these problems Since UI claimants in California typically certify for payments
by focusing directly on the number of individuals receiving UI for two weeks at a time, the total number of individuals
benefits for unemployment experienced in any given week, certifying per week should be approximately equal to one-
providing a more accurate measure of the evolving status of half of the number of individuals potentially eligible for UI
the labor market. This measure is more directly comparable benefits. However, as discussed in more detail in our July 2nd
to the number of unemployed individuals or the number of report, this ratio may differ due to retroactive certifications,
workers in the labor force reported from Current Population processing delays, delays in workers’ certifications, and the
Survey data than existing UI statistics. bi-weekly nature of certifications in California.
Once a UI claim is deemed eligible, the claimant must meet Figure 9A illustrates our key findings about the complex and
separate eligibility criteria in each week of unemployment evolving relationship between claims filed in a week and the
to receive payment for that week. These eligibility criteria number of Californians who experienced unemployment
are verified through a process known as certification, that week. The dashed blue line of shows the number of
which claimants complete bi-weekly in California. At each payments certified each week, and is analogous to “continued
certification, a claimant informs the EDD that they met claims” measures often reported by the Department of
the relevant eligibility criteria in the two (or more) weeks Labor.
13 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 9B: All Claims Stacked: Total Number of Individuals Paid Benefits by Week of Unemployment, Total Number of
Individuals Certifying for Benefits by Week of Certification, and Total Number Payments Certified by Week of Certification,
2/8/2020- 10/17/2020
Individuals Receiving Benefits
5,000,000
4,000,000
PUA
3,000,000
2,000,000 Extensions
Regular UI
1,000,000
0
Feb 8 Mar 7 Apr 4 May 2 May 30 Jun 27 Jul 25 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 17
Week of Unemployment
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays.
4.2% of paid claims over this time period are of unknown type, and are included in the region for Regular UI claims in this figure.
The number of payments certified each week grew gradually PUA, the decline in numbers seems to have accelerated
during the pandemic until skyrocketing in August. While this in August. The amount of people receiving unemployment
traditional measure of payment certifications may seem to benefits from extension programs has also grown steadily
indicate that there were millions of new filings in August, our during the crisis, as PEUC extended coverage for weeks of
September analysis suggested this was not the case. Rather, unemployment dating back to March 29th (Figure 9B). For
while there was indeed an increase in initial claims in late the week ending October 17th, just over 1 million claimants
August, the spike in payment certifications was driven by the received coverage under an extension program.
fact that many of the individuals who filed claims during that Using our approach of counting individuals rather than claims,
period (and certified for the first time) had been certifying for for the week ending on October 17th (the last week this can
multiple weeks of benefits, often all the way back to the early be measured in our data given typical processing lags), we find
stages of the crisis. The surge was particularly high among the that 2.3 million individuals were potentially eligible to receive
PUA program; Figures A1 and A2, in the Appendix, where regular UI benefits (Table 6). Including both regular UI and
we reproduce Figure 9A for regular and PUA continuing PUA, we count 3.4 million potentially eligible claimants for
claimants separately. During September and October, there the week ending October 17th (Table A2, in the Appendix).
has been a gradual decline in the number of individuals
The number of individuals receiving UI benefits can be
certifying for both regular and PUA benefits. The saw-tooth
directly compared to estimates of the number of individuals
pattern in the number of individuals certifying is due to the
in the labor force or unemployed people from the Current
bi-weekly nature of certification in California.
Population Survey (CPS). The number of UI claimants from
Next, we turn to our preferred measure of the stock all programs comprised 17.4% of February’s labor force, our
of individuals receiving UI: individuals paid by week of pre-crisis benchmark (Table A2, in the Appendix). Counting
unemployment. This measure is shown in the light blue only regular UI claimants receiving full benefits, this amounted
line of Figure 9A, and is also broken down by regular, PUA, to amounted 11.9% of the labor force (Table 6). Comparing
and extensions in Figure 9B. Despite the large number this estimate to CPS estimates of unemployed people, we
of certifications that occurred in August, our method find that the number of claimants receiving full regular
of counting workers based on when they experienced UI benefits is 94% of the number of people counted as
unemployment – rather than when they certified for benefits “unemployed” in the September CPS. Table 6 compares this
– has fallen consistently since late-July for regular UI. Among proportion across various demographic groups.
14 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 10: Percent of Potentially Eligible Claimants with Payment Denied Due to Excess Earnings, and Percent of Paid
Claimants Receiving Partial UI, 2/8/2020 - 10/17/2020
Partial UI & Denials
Workers receiving UI benefits are allowed to also earn wages Among claimants receiving regular benefits in the week
up to a threshold before becoming ineligible for UI in that ending October 31st, the fraction receiving partial UI was
week. For claimants whose Weekly Benefit Amount (WBA) about 11% (Figure 10). The fraction receiving partial UI rose
is below the maximum of $450, the threshold is typically briefly to almost 14% at the beginning of the crisis, compared
two-thirds of prior average weekly earnings.10 If earnings are to just 6% in February (Figure 10). This suggests that initially
above that threshold, UI benefits are denied for that week employers may have thought the crisis was temporary and
– but if earnings fall the week after, claimants can collect kept a larger group of workers on part-time. The fraction
benefits again. then fell to just above 5% by the end of April as employers
If reported earnings are below that threshold but above zero, engaged in layoffs instead of reducing hours, before beginning
an individual receives a reduced UI payment for that week. its ascent that lasted until early July. Since July 4th, the
This system is often referred to as “partial UI."11 Since partial fraction of claims paid partial benefits has been fairly constant.
UI benefits are determined at the payment level, a partial UI The relative prevalence of denials due to excess earnings and
claimant may later receive higher UI payments (up to their partial UI suggest that a potentially large number of workers
full WBA) if their earnings decrease in subsequent weeks. with some employment are still attached to the UI system.
Similarly, a claimant whose payment is denied in a given week This has two important implications. First, some of these
due to excessive earnings can later receive partial UI or full workers would benefit from either increases in the earnings
benefits if their earnings decrease in subsequent weeks. disregard for partial UI benefits, as discussed in our earlier
Among the total number of potentially eligible claimants of Policy Analysis, or from wider use of the Work Sharing
regular UI in the week ending October 17th, about 6% had program (discussed more thoroughly in our June Report).
their benefit payment denied because of excess earnings A California bill (AB 1731) was recently enacted to
(Figure 10). This share had been increasing in early May after streamline the process for employers to apply for California’s
bottoming out at about 3% in late April. However, after a Work Sharing program. Second, some of these workers may
steep rise in early May, the rate of denials has gradually report that they are unemployed in survey data because they
trended downward. It is now just below the approximately are receiving partial UI benefits, potentially making CPS-based
7% seen before the start of the crisis. unemployment measures harder to interpret.
15 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 11: Continuing Claimants by Industry, In October and at Peak of Crisis
Week Ending Oct. 3rd Peak of Crisis
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation
Education Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services
Retail Trade
Admin. Support, Waste Man. (a)
Construction
Transp., Warehousing & Utilities
Real Estate and Leasing
Information
Wholesale Trade
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing (a)
Manufacturing
Health Care and Social Assistance
Mining, Oil and Gas
Prof., Scientific, Techn. Services (a)
Finance and Insurance
Management
Public Administration
0 5 10 15 20 25
Percent of Industry Labor Force Paid UI Benefits
(a) Full Names of Sectors: Administrative Support, Waste Management, and Remediation.
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services.
Data does not include claimants receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).
Demographic and Industry Breakdown The Accommodation and Food Services industry accounted
for nearly one of every five continuing claims paid to regular
of Continuing Claims UI claimants in October. To offer insight into each industry’s
Table 5 shows the statistics on continuing regular claims for path toward recovery, Figure 11 plots the share of each
various demographic and education subgroups, and Table A2, industry’s labor force receiving UI benefits at 2 points in time:
in the Appendix, shows a similar analysis including PUA. the first week of October and the week of the crisis in which
The fraction of the labor force potentially eligible to receive the industry saw the most claimants receiving benefits. We
UI benefits for unemployment experienced in the week see that some industries have made significant recoveries
ending October 17th (the latest available) is substantially (Education Services has significantly fewer claimants receiving
higher for groups that have been most affected by the UI more recently than it did at the peak of the crisis), while
crisis. For example, the fraction of the February labor force others have been slower to recover (the Transportation,
potentially eligible for any type of UI benefits in the week of Warehousing, & Utilities industry has seen little change in the
October 17th was above 20% for workers aged 16-24, as stock of claimants receiving benefits).
well as for Black workers. In contrast, among workers with a
To better understand how partial UI and denials due to
Bachelor’s or more, less than 5% were potentially eligible to
excess earnings have been influenced by the pandemic (and
receive benefits.
policy responses to it), Figure A3, in the Appendix, plots
Table 6 analyzes the stock of continuing claims at the industry these measures by industry. The Accommodation and Food
level. This analysis excludes PUA claimants, who do not Services Sector has seen consistently high rates of partial
report industry. The two industries with the largest share UI during the pandemic. As COVID-19 cases surge and
of workers currently (as of October 17th) receiving benefits re-opening efforts are scaled back, these high levels of partial
are Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (32.3% of the labor UI in service-focused industries suggest employers may be
force), Education Services (26.4% of the labor force) and reducing hours rather than laying off workers in order to
Accommodation and Food Services (24% of the labor force). accommodate the uncertainty of the stalled re-opening.
16 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
TABLE 5: Individuals Potentially Eligible for Regular UI Benefits and Receiving Regular UI Benefits, Total and as Fraction of the Labor Force and
the Unemployed, and Share with Reduced UI Benefits, for Unemployment in the Week Ending October 17th
INDIVIDUALS
INDIVIDUALS WITH INDIVIDUALS
WITH PERCENT OF POTENTIALLY RECEIVING FULL
PARTIAL UI POTENTIALLY ELIGIBLE CLAIMS WBA (REGULAR
INDIVIDUALS PAYMENTS ELIGIBLE (PUA + REGULAR) UI ONLY)
WITH INDIVIDUALS AS A PERCENT INDIVIDUALS AS A PERCENT AS A PERCENT OF
POTENTIALLY WITH OF ALL PAID WITH OF FEB LABOR UNEMPLOYED IN
GROUP ELIGIBLE CLAIMS CLAIMS PAID CLAIMS PAYMENT DENIED FORCE SEPTEMBER
Statewide 2,314,473 2,187,786 11.2 5.5 17.4 94.2
By Gender
Female 1,176,154 1,107,678 13.6 5.8 19.0 95.0
Male 1,086,037 1,032,023 8.8 5.0 15.5 89.1
By Age Group
16–19 69,211 65,582 8.7 5.2 20.0 61.0
20–24 352,641 336,058 11.2 4.7 24.4 106.3
25–34 658,059 626,302 11.1 4.8 18.5 85.1
35–44 416,261 392,255 11.1 5.8 15.0 105.2
45–54 343,171 320,074 12.2 6.7 14.1 96.4
55–64 299,128 280,841 12.0 6.1 15.7 91.3
65–85 122,318 117,288 10.6 4.1 18.5 84.2
By Race and Ethnicity
White 672,052 632,609 11.2 5.9 13.3 75.5
Hispanic 849,131 802,009 11.2 5.5 14.2 83.0
Asian 348,526 328,859 14.5 5.6 15.5 104.1
Black 215,482 208,922 7.2 3.0 32.6 109.4
By Education
High School 1,247,621 1,189,197 10.8 4.7 19.0 130.8
Degree or Less
Associate’s Deg., 644,428 611,955 11.9 5.0 12.7 76.7
Some College
Bachelor's 353,805 331,313 11.8 6.4 4.6 53.1
Degree or More
Notes: "Potentially Eligible" includes claims which are either paid or have payment denied due to excess weekly earnings or full-time work. This table only includes PUA claimants for the
column "Individuals with potentially eligible claims (PUA + Regular) as a percent of Feb. labor force," but that column does not include PUA claimants in the education rows because PUA
claimants do not report education levels.
17 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
TABLE 6: Individuals Potentially Eligible for Regular UI Benefits and Receiving UI Benefits, Total and as Fraction of the Labor Force
and the Unemployed, and Share with Reduced UI Benefits, for Unemployment in the Week Ending October 17th
INDIVIDUALS PERCENT OF INDIVIDUALS
WITH POTENTIALLY WITH
INDIVIDUALS PARTIAL UI ELIGIBLE POTENTIALLY
WITH PAYMENTS INDIVIDUALS ELIGIBLE CLAIMS INDUSTRY'S
POTENTIALLY INDIVIDUALS AS A PERCENT WITH AS A PERCENT PERRCENT
ELIGIBLE WITH OF ALL PAID PAYMENT OF FEB LABOR OF ALL PAID
GROUP CLAIMS CLAIMS PAID CLAIMS DENIED FORCE CLAIMS*
Accommodation and 413,278 392,706 16.7 5.0 24.0 19.2
Food Services
Retail Trade 266,181 251,215 12.4 5.6 16.1 12.3
Health Care and Social 225,242 212,281 13.6 5.8 9.1 10.4
Assistance
Admin. Support, 207,766 200,229 5.9 3.6 18.2 9.8
Waste Man. (a)
Manufacturing 116,049 109,961 8.0 5.2 8.8 5.4
Prof., Scientific, Techn. 112,581 106,755 7.9 5.2 8.3 5.2
Services (a)
Other Services 108,346 101,379 15.0 6.4 18.6 5.0
Arts, Entertainment, 107,538 101,716 11.7 5.4 32.3 5.0
Recreation
Education Services 103,764 95,570 13.6 7.9 26.4 4.7
Construction 101,852 95,708 3.6 6.0 11.4 4.7
Transportation, 100,793 96,779 10.7 4.6 14.0 4.7
Warehousing and
Utilities
Wholesale Trade 74,594 71,566 8.6 4.1 10.8 3.5
Information 67,944 60,631 8.0 10.8 11.6 3.0
Agriculture, Forestry, 49,322 48,361 2.5 1.9 11.4 2.4
Fishing (a)
Real Estate and Leasing 41,588 39,766 8.5 4.4 13.6 1.9
Finance and Insurance 33,049 32,077 8.3 2.9 6.1 1.6
Public Administration 19,865 18,748 13.7 5.6 0.8 0.9
Management 10,312 9,814 9.7 4.8 4.1 0.5
Mining, Oil and Gas 1,371 2,300 5.2 12.1 6.0 0.1
Notes: *This table does not include claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). "Potentially Eligible" includes claims which are either paid or have payment denied
due to excess weekly earnings or full-time work. (a) Full Names of Sectors: Administrative Support, Waste Management, and Remediation. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing,
and Hunting. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services.
18 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
TABLE 7: Different Measures of the Fraction of the Labor Force Potentially Eligible For UI Benefits, Receiving UI Benefits, and
Regular UI Claimants Receiving Full WBA for the Week Ending October 17th
February Labor Force September Labor Force
INDIVIDUALS
INDIVIDUALS INDIVIDUALS INDIVIDUALS PAID FULL INDIVIDUALS
POTENTIALLY INDIVIDUALS PAID FULL WBA POTENTIALLY INDIVIDUALS WBA PAID LESS
ELIGIBLE AS A PAID AS A AS A ELIGIBLE AS A PAID AS A AS A THAN FPL
PERCENT OF PERCENT OF PERCENT OF PERCENT OF PERCENT OF PERCENT OF AS A PERCENT
GROUP LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE OF ALL PAID
Statewide 11.9 11.3 10.0 12.3 11.7 10.4 44.9
By Gender
Female 13.3 12.6 10.8 13.8 13.0 11.2 51.0
Male 10.2 9.7 8.9 10.6 10.1 9.2 38.6
By Age Group
16–19 13.0 12.4 11.3 12.7 12.1 11.0 91.7
20–24 20.3 19.3 17.1 21.6 20.6 18.3 67.9
25–34 13.8 13.1 11.7 14.3 13.6 12.1 41.7
35–44 9.7 9.1 8.1 10.1 9.5 8.5 36.3
45–54 8.8 8.2 7.2 9.1 8.5 7.5 36.4
55–64 9.9 9.3 8.2 10.0 9.4 8.3 36.3
65–85 10.6 10.2 9.1 10.7 10.2 9.2 44.5
By Race and Ethnicity
White 9.0 8.4 7.5 9.2 8.6 7.7 42.0
Hispanic 11.6 11.0 9.7 12.1 11.4 10.1 46.5
Asian 11.5 10.8 9.3 12.1 11.4 9.7 45.9
Black 20.7 20.1 18.7 21.3 20.6 19.1 48.7
By Education
High School 19.0 18.1 16.1 20.5 19.6 17.4 48.4
Degree or Less
Associate’s Deg., 12.7 12.1 10.6 13.0 12.3 10.8 46.2
Some College
Bachelor's 4.6 4.3 3.8 4.6 4.3 3.8 32.1
Degree or More
Notes: "Potentially Eligible" includes claims which are either paid or have payment denied due to excess weekly earnings or full-time work. PUA claimants do not report education, and
thus are excluded from the "By Education" section.
19 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 12: Percent of Initial UI Claimants Reporting They Expect to be Recalled to Prior Job, 2/22/2020 - 10/31/2020
% of Initial Claims Expecting Recall
100
80
All Claims
60
New Initial Claims
40
20
0
Feb 22 Mar 21 Apr 18 May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31
Processed in Week Ending
X-axis Labels Correspond to Saturdays. This figure excludes PUA claims.
New initial claims excludes additional and transitional claims. For claimants filing an additional claim, information on their recall expectations is
only collected once, in the week of the original claim, not in the week they re-open the claim.
Recall and Exits by Program
Recall
Upon filing an initial UI claim, individuals are asked to report Although recall information is self-reported by the claimant
whether they expect to return to their prior job, i.e., to be and may change in the course of the unemployment spell, this
“recalled.” Just over 60% of all new initial UI claimants during does suggest some reason for optimism about the economic
the most recent two weeks reported that they expect to be effects of the COVID-19 crisis. While still costly both for
recalled, a noticeable decrease from the recent 80% peak in the workers themselves and for the economy as a whole,
September (Figure 12). While recent recall rates are lower temporary job separations in which the worker eventually
than the 90% seen at the peak of the crisis, they are still returns to the same employer are likely to be much less
significantly higher than the 27% average during February, costly than permanent separations.
and appear to be holding firm. Furthermore, the fraction
of workers expecting to be recalled was still substantially
above the February average even when looking within various
demographic groups filing an initial claim (Table 8).
The numbers we report here reflect recall expectations of
only new initial claims, excluding additional claims. When a
new claim is re-opened as an additional claim, the recall data
that we observe corresponds to the earlier new claim.
Figure 12 contrasts how recall expectations have changed
over time for non-additional initial claims, which is our
preferred measure, and for all initial claims, which is the
measure we have reported in previous reports. Recall
expectations since May have been higher when additional
claims are included, which is consistent with the fact that
recall expectations were high early on in the pandemic, when
the original claim was filed.
20 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
TABLE 8: Percent of Initial UI Claimants Expecting Recall and the Median Weekly Benefit Amount Before and After the Start of
the COVID-19 Crisis in California
PERCENT EXPECTING RECALL WEEKLY BENEFIT AMOUNT ($)
LAST 2 LAST 2
WEEKS WEEKS
FEBRUARY SINCE MARCH (OCT 18TH- FEBRUARY SINCE MARCH (OCT 18TH-
GROUP AVERAGE 15TH OCT 31ST ) AVERAGE 15TH OCT 31ST )
Statewide 27.1 76.8 56.1 417.8 341.0 345.0
By Gender
Female 24.0 77.6 55.8 328.0 299.8 296.5
Male 29.7 76.0 56.3 450.0 406.3 424.5
By Age Group
16–19 30.4 74.5 58.0 166.3 124.2 132.0
20–24 27.3 74.0 53.1 262.9 208.2 208.5
25–34 24.3 76.1 53.7 387.5 345.5 344.0
35–44 23.7 77.2 56.1 450.0 436.8 431.0
45–54 28.6 78.5 58.1 450.0 440.7 436.5
55–64 31.5 78.9 58.6 450.0 430.6 424.0
65–85 38.2 78.8 63.2 369.3 344.3 340.5
By Education Group
High School 36.5 82.5 62.0 347.1 313.4 327.0
Degree or Less
Associate’s Deg., 19.8 71.3 53.1 435.1 339.4 335.0
Some College
Bachelor's Degree 13.2 66.7 46.1 450.0 447.5 450.0
or More
By Race and Ethnicity
White 18.4 76.6 50.3 450.0 393.1 396.5
Hispanic 38.7 77.7 61.7 356.3 316.2 320.0
Asian 19.0 78.5 50.3 450.0 363.5 364.0
Black 15.0 69.8 54.8 329.8 290.5 307.5
Notes: Columns 1-3 exclude additional claims to regular UI. Columns 4-6 include all initial claimants to regular UI, including additional claims. Tabulations based on
initial UI claims file. Does not include PUA claims. Median weekly benefit amount calculation excludes claimants receiving no benefits.
21 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
TABLE 9: Percent of Initial UI Claimants Expecting Recall and the Median Weekly Benefit Amount at Various Stages of the COVID-19
Crisis in California
PERCENT EXPECTING RECALL MEDIAN WEEKLY BENEFIT AMOUNT ($)
SINCE 2 WEEKS SINCE 2 WEEKS
MAJOR INDUSTRY FEBRUARY MARCH (OCT 18TH- FEBRUARY MARCH (OCT 18TH-
(2 DIGIT NAICS) AVERAGE 15TH OCT 31ST ) AVERAGE 15TH OCT 31ST )
Accommodation and Food Services 19.6 80.8 53.8 282 257 277
Retail Trade 13.9 75.7 38.0 275 244 235
Health Care and Social Assistance 13.7 75.1 48.1 337 358 342
Admin. Support, Waste Man. (a) 23.6 69.2 52.8 313 302 314
Manufacturing 25.4 75.5 52.9 424 422 424
Education Services 15.2 74.3 53.1 389 276 280
Construction 44.9 77.6 62.3 450 450 450
Prof., Scientific, Techn. Services (a) 12.7 68.3 42.8 450 450 450
Other Services 13.7 80.3 46.9 347 279 270
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation 23.7 84.4 61.7 338 300 312
Transportation, Warehousing and 27.8 70.4 52.7 391 390 394
Utilities
Wholesale Trade 13.5 73.1 42.5 450 446 441
Information 26.2 75.1 48.1 450 450 450
Real Estate and Leasing 10.5 72.4 42.9 447 421 415
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing (a) 80.8 81.5 83.8 275 283 324
Finance and Insurance 5.9 60.3 36.2 450 419 397
Public Administration 24.3 72.6 48.3 401 258 262
Management 3.1 70.0 44.8 450 448 445
Notes: Columns 1-3 exclude additional claims to regular UI. Columns 4-6 include all initial claimants to regular UI, including additional claims. Industries listed in descending
order of total claims as in Table 14. Table refers to information from initial regular claims for regular unemployment insurance (UI) benefits among California residents.
Tabulations based on initial UI claims file. Median WBA calculation excludes claimants receiving no benefits. Industry of main employer (see text) according to North American
Industrial Classification Systems (NAICS, see https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag_index_naics.htm). Does not include PUA claims.
(a) Full Names of Sectors: Administrative Support, Waste Management, and Remediation. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting. Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Services.
22 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Exits Unfortunately, our data does not allow us to observe if an
individual previously receiving unemployment insurance
Part of the reason the number of claimants is declining benefits has found new employment as opposed to simply
while the flow of new initial claimants remains steady is that failing to certify while remaining unemployed, so our measure
each week, a small share of the number of claimants stops of exits should not be used as a direct estimate of individuals
certifying for benefits. We refer to this flow of individuals finding employment.
out of UI as “exits.” We consider an individual to have
exited from the UI system in the last week for which they
certified for unemployment benefits. (Because California
requires claimants to certify every other week to maintain
a valid claim, we check that no certifications occurred in the
two subsequent weeks in order to determine an exit.) By
comparing the number of individuals exiting UI (certifying for
the last time) with the total number of claimants who were
potentially eligible for benefits in that week, we construct
an exit rate which can be used to compare across different
groups of claimants. The first panel of Figure 13A shows
that exit rates from regular UI have inched up over the past
two months, from less than 3% in July to just over 4% near
the end of September. We do not attempt to code exits
more recent than this in order to allow a sufficient lag for
continuing claims certifications to be processed. For much
of the crisis, exits have been much less frequent among PUA
claimants than among regular claimants. This pattern reversed
in August, with more than 12% of PUA claimants in the week
ending August 29th making that their final week of benefit
payments. The exodus of claimants out of the PUA system
over September and October may correspond to the roll-out
of enhanced fraud screening measures. (The spike in exit
rates occurring around May 9th in each panel of the figure
is likely due to the expiration of “auto-certification.” From
March 16th to May 9th, claimants did not need to complete
their bi-weekly certification in order to receive benefits.12)
Exit rates among other sub-groups, excluding PUA claimants,
are shown in the remaining panels of Figure 13A. Claimants
who indicated they expect to be recalled by their employer
have exited UI at significantly higher rates than claimants who
did not expect to be recalled. Although differences by gender
are not evident, substantial heterogeneity by race exists, with
Black claimants showing lower rates of exit in recent months.
As the racially disparate impacts of the pandemic surface,
these lower exit rates among Black workers could be a sign
of employers being less likely to recall Black workers they had
previously laid off (Table 8, which reports differences in recall
expectations by race since March 15th).
23 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 13A: Percent of Claimants Potentially Eligible for UI Benefits For Unemployment Experienced in That Week Who Are
Certifying for the Last Time Prior to an Exit, 2/22/2020 - 10/31/2020
By Claim Type
% of Claimants Certifying
for the Last Time Prior to an Exit
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0 10 Week Avg.
Regular UI Claimants
4.0 10 Week Avg.
2.0 PUA Claimants
0.0
Mar 7 Apr 4 May 2 May 30 Jun 27 Jul 25 Aug 22 Sep 19
By Recall Expectation
8.0
6.0
Expecting Recall
4.0
2.0
Not Expecting Recall
0.0
Mar 7 Apr 4 May 2 May 30 Jun 27 Jul 25 Aug 22 Sep 19
By Gender
8.0
6.0
4.0 Males
Females
2.0
0.0
Mar 7 Apr 4 May 2 May 30 Jun 27 Jul 25 Aug 22 Sep 19
All figures except panel 1 (By Claims Type) exclude PUA claimants.
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays.
We consider a claimant to have exited when they go 2 or more weeks without certifying for benefits. Industry panel does not include PUA claims.
For weeks of unemployment ending between March 14th and May 9th, UI claimants did not needto certify in order to receive benefits.
24 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 13B: Percent of Claimants Potentially Eligible for UI Benefits For Unemployment Experienced in That Week Who Are
Certifying for the Last Time Prior to an Exit, 2/22/2020 - 10/31/2020
By Generation
% of Claimants Certifying
for the Last Time Prior to an Exit
10.0
8.0 Gen X (40-55)
6.0
Gen Z (16-23)
Millenials (24-39)
4.0
Baby Boomers (56+)
2.0
0.0
Mar 7 Apr 4 May 2 May 30 Jun 27 Jul 25 Aug 22 Sep 19
By Industry
12.0
Manufacturing
10.0
8.0
6.0 Health Care/Social Asst.
4.0 Retail Trade
Admin Support/
2.0 Waste Mgmt./
Accommodation and Food Services Remediation/
0.0
Mar 7 Apr 4 May 2 May 30 Jun 27 Jul 25 Aug 22 Sep 19
Last Week Certifying Before an Exit
By Race/Ethnicity
8.0
6.0
White
4.0 Hispanic
Asian
2.0
Black
0.0
Mar 7 Apr 4 May 2 May 30 Jun 27 Jul 25 Aug 22 Sep 19
Last Week Certifying Before an Exit
All figures except panel 1 (By Claims Type) exclude PUA claimants.
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays.
We consider a claimant to have exited when they go 2 or more weeks without certifying for benefits. Industry panel does not include PUA claims.
For weeks of unemployment ending between March 14th and May 9th, UI claimants did not needto certify in order to receive benefits.
25 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 14A: Regular UI Exhaustion Projections
Regular UI Claimants Projected to Exhaust Benefits in That Week
160,000
140,000 135,312
Cliff 1:PEUC and PUA benefits
end on 12/26/2020 120,176
120,000
Cliff 2: In early May, the bulk
100,000 of claimants who started
claims in mid-March will
80,000 exhaust 59 weeks of UI
benefits
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 1 1 21 1
1- 8- 6- 3- 0- 0- 7- 5- 2- 0- -2 -2 2- -2
-3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -7 -4 - 30
1 0 11 12 01 02 0 3 04 05 06 0 7 08 09 10 10
-
Week
Claimants who exhaust PEUC but are either ineligible for FED-ED or exhaust FED-ED benefits are pushed to the PUA program,
which expires at the end of 2020. Once this occurs, they will have fully exhausted UI benefits.
This projection assumes claimants who have used partial UI since certifying will continue to use Partial UI at the same rate.
It assumes claimants will not exit and then return to UI.
This projection assumes UI claimants will continue to exit at the same rate going forward as they have on average over the latest 10 weeks available.
Projection Sample: Received Payment between 9/5/2020 and 10/31/2020.
Projected Exhaustion
As COVID-19 cases begin to surge again and restrictions (PEUC), which provides up to 13 weeks’ worth of additional
are re-enacted across the state, many claimants who are not benefits that can currently be tapped into for unemployment
able to find employment will be in danger of exhausting their occurring up to December 26th, 2020. Upon exhausting
UI benefits in the coming months if emergency provisions PEUC, most – but not all – claimants will be eligible for
are allowed to expire. For the first time in our report series, Federal-State Extended Duration (FED-ED), which
this section provides a lens into what types of claimants are provides up to 20 weeks of full benefits. The FED-ED
likely to exhaust UI benefits and when. Current data suggests program is not specific to the pandemic, but rather is
749,000 Californians will exhaust benefits by the end of this triggered during times of elevated unemployment rates. If a
year. By the end of May, if current conditions persist, we claimant exhausts all regular benefits and available extensions
project that a total of 1.1 million Californians will have and is no longer eligible for regular UI, they could still be
been cut off from unemployment insurance benefits eligible for a PUA claim (if they have used less than 46 weeks’
before finding reemployment. We also project new disparities worth of benefits). Absent federal legislation extending it, the
to emerge by race, with 28% of current claimants who are PUA program will also expire at the end of 2020, at which
Black ultimately being cut off from regular UI benefits, far point all current PUA claimants who have not yet exited UI
above the average across all races of 19%. We will continue will no longer receive UI benefits.
to update this analysis as the policy situation evolves.
To calculate the number of claimants who could potentially
Similar to most other states, most regular UI claims in exhaust their UI benefits, we use a sample that is slightly
California are eligible for 26 weeks of full benefits. (Some broader than our sample of continuing claimants potentially
potential durations are shorter due to low earnings in a eligible for payments on October 17th, the basis of Tables
claimant’s base period.) Many claimants who entered near 6 and 7. Because certification is often retroactive and can
the beginning of the pandemic exhausted regular UI in early appear with a lag in our data due to processing delays,
September, and moved to the first of two extensions, called we extend the sample to include anyone certifying for
Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation unemployment as early as September 5th.13
26 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
To project exhaustion for this group of individuals receiving from less than 2% for most of the pandemic to more than
benefits in October, we assume claimants will continue to 12% in August (Figure 12). The timing of the mass of exits
exit the UI system at the same rate as the average observed from the PUA program, which were more pronounced
over the last 10-weeks (shown in Figure 12). Those claimants among certain races and demographic groups (not shown),
projected to still be receiving benefits when they reach seems to correspond with the roll-out of identity verification
their maximum benefit duration are classified as exhaustees. and fraud prevention measures. Hence, for PUA it is harder
The Methods Appendix provides further detail on how we to predict what the exit rate going forward might be.
determine each claimant’s likely exhaustion date, including With this caveat in mind, Table 10 projects slightly higher
handling of intermittent weeks worked, partial UI, and rates of PUA exhaustion among males and the middle-aged.
forecasting of early exits given censoring. Christmas. Whereas more than 60% of current PUA claimants who are
Figure 14 shows the number of claimants expected to Hispanic or Asian are projected to run off the PUA cliff, less
exhaust regular UI in each week over the next year. Figure than 30% of Black or White PUA claimants are expected
14A shows the number exhausting each week, whereas to remain in the program long enough. However, there
Figure 14B and Figure 14C show cumulative counts and is substantial uncertainty regarding whether the dramatic
percentages respectively. The first major wave of exhaustions spikes in exit rates among certain types of PUA claimants
is projected to arrive at the end of 2020, at which point will persist into the future. Analogous to Figure 14, Figure
both the PEUC extension and PUA program will expire. 15 show the number of claimants expected to exhaust
Provided the rate at which current claimants find work PUA in each week until the end of December together
remains constant in the future, we project that 166,086 with the cumulative total and the cumulative percentage of
current regular UI claimants (5.7% of current regular stock) current number of claimants exhausting. The mass is quite
and 582,677 current PUA claimants (40.4% of current PUA concentrated at the end of the year, although some people
stock) will abruptly have their benefits cut off shortly after will exhaust earlier because coverage lasts for only 46 weeks
Christmas.14 and benefits can be claimed retroactively for weeks of
unemployment as early as January of this year.15
Table 10 provides more detail on the 748,763 claimants that
are likely to exhaust their benefits at the end of 2020. Among The second major wave of exhaustions is expected to
regular UI claimants, men and women will likely have similar emerge in early May 2021, as many members of the first
rates of exhausting. However, the youngest age group of major cohorts to file for regular UI during the pandemic are
claimants, Gen Z (aged 16-23), are projected to hit the cliff expected to exhaust all 59 weeks of regular and extended
harder, with 7.1% of current regular claimants losing coverage benefits (26 regular + 13 PEUC + 20 FED-ED). Whereas we
next month. The more pronounced impact among younger saw the first cliff is predicted to happen relatively suddenly
workers is likely due to lower prior earnings among new with the end of the calendar year, Panel A of Figure 14 shows
workers, which in certain cases can result both in a shorter that the second cliff will be more gradual, with the number
duration of regular UI benefits and ineligibility for the FED-ED of exhaustions peaking near mid-May but dragging on into
extension to carry their claims into 2021. Another predicted the summer of 2021. If the current rate at which claimants
disparity in exhaustions will be by race, with 8.4% of current have been finding work during the pandemic persists into the
Black regular UI claimants expected to lose coverage at future, a total of 387,273 more current regular UI claimants
the end of the year, substantially above the average of 5.7% will have exhausted by the end of May. Inclusive of the first
among all racial categories and 5.5% among White claimants. cliff, we project that 553,559 regular UI claimants will have
The relatively high rate of exhaustion projected among Black exhausted by the end of May, amounting to 19.0% of those
claimants is consistent with lower rates of exit (Figure 12), currently benefiting from regular UI.
which are likely at least in part driven by worse odds of being
recalled to work by their prior employers (Table 8).
Differences in the demographics of PUA claimants projected
to lose coverage next month are also shown in Table 10, but
are slightly more difficult to interpret. Whereas rates of early
exit from regular UI have held fairly constant over the past
10 weeks, rates of exit from the PUA program have increased
27 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 14B: Regular UI Exhaustion Projections, Cumulative
Regular UI Claimants Projected to Have Exhausted Benefits
(Cumulative)
1,000,000
818,787
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 1 1 1 21
1- 8- 6- 3- 0- 0- 7- 5- 2- 0- -2 -2 -2 0-
-3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -7 -4 -2 -3
10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 10
Week
This projection assumes claimants who have used partial UI since certifying will continue to use Partial UI at the same rate.
It assumes claimants will not exit and then return to UI
This projection assumes UI claimants will continue to exit at the same rate going forward as they have on average over the latest 10 weeks available.
Projection Sample: Received Payment between 9/5/2020 and 10/31/2020.
FIGURE 14C: Regular UI Exhaustion Projections, Cumulative, as Percent of Current Regular Claimants
Percent of Sample Having Exhausted Benefits
40
0.8x (10-Week Avg. Exit Rate)
35
30
25
1.2x (10-Week Avg. Exit Rate)
20
15
10
5
0
20 20 -2
1
-2
1
-2
1
-2
1
-2
1 21 21 21 21 21 21
4- 2- -9 -6 -6 -3 -1 9- 6- 4- 1- 8- 6-
-1 -1 01 02 03 04 05 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1
11 12 05 06 07 08 09 10
Week
This projection assumes claimants who have used partial UI since certifying will continue to use Partial UI at the same rate.
It assumes claimants will not exit and then return to UI
Average exit rate over the latest 10 weeks = 3.4%
Projection Sample: Received Payment between 9/5/2020 and 10/31/2020. Sample Size: 2,909,543.
28 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE 15: PUA Exhaustion Projections
PUA Claimants Projected to Exhaust Benefits in That Week
600,000
526,842
500,000 Cumulative:
582,677
(40.4% of
claimants)
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Oct 31 Nov 7 Nov 14 Nov 21 Nov 28 Dec 5 Dec 12 Dec 19 Dec 26
Week
This projection assumes claimants who have used partial UI since certifying will continue to use Partial UI at the same rate.
This projection assumes PUA claimants will continue to exit at the same rate going forward as they have on average over the
latest 10 weeks available.
Projection Sample: Received Payment between 9/5/2020 and 10/31/2020.
The final panel of Table 10 provides more detail on the half- of the crisis transitioned into the PEUC program in late
million current regular UI claimants projected to exhaust September – early October, yet a steady share will continue
benefits between now and the end of May. As the second moving into the program up until its expiration on December
wave of exhaustions rolls out, our projections indicate that 26th. Figure A6 shows an analogous projection for transitions
racial disparities in particular are at risk to grow substantially. into the FED-ED program. Immediately noticeable is the end
We project that more than one-quarter (28.2%) of current of the PEUC program, an event which pushes over 200,000
regular UI claimants who are Black will ultimately exhaust claimants onto FED-ED benefits in the following week.
benefits, in comparison to 17.7% of those who are White.
The key assumption underlying all of these exhaustion
As is projected to be the case by the end of the first cliff, a
projections is that recent rates of early exit from the program
slightly higher share of women are projected to exhaust than
over the most recent 10 weeks are informative about future
are men. By age group, we expect the second exhaustion
rates of exit. Figure 14, Panel C shows alternative scenarios
cliff to have a stronger effect on the older generation of Baby
based on a higher and lower rates of exit. Appendix Figure
Boomers (56+) than did the first cliff. Although these workers
A4, and shows how the calculation would change under a
are likely to have had the required work history to satisfy
range of alternative exit rates. For instance, our baseline
FED-ED eligibility allowing benefits to continue into 2021,
projection using 10-week average exit rates projects 553,559
these claimants’ relatively low rates of finding work during
regular UI claimants to exhaust by the end of May. Even if
the last few months of the pandemic (suggested by relatively
weekly economic conditions were to improve such that exit
low exit rates in Figure 12) put them at an elevated risk of
rates increased by a factor of 20%, we would still expect to
exhausting the full 59 weeks of potential benefits.
see 453,000 regular UI exhaustees by that date. A detailed
We also project the dates that claimants will transition into explanation of our projection methodology is available on the
either the PEUC program and/or the FED-ED program if CPL website.
they are eligible. Appendix Figure A5 illustrates that a large
number of claimants who were laid off in the first wave
29 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
TABLE 10: Projected Exhaustions, by Demographic Group
CLIFF 2: BY MAY 29TH, 2021
CLIFF 1: BY DECEMBER 26TH, 2020
(EXCLUDING PUA)
% OF FULL
% OF SAMPLE % OF
TOTAL REGULAR % OF PUA (REGULAR % OF REGULAR
EXHAUSTEES SAMPLE SAMPLE UI + PUA) REGULAR EXHAUSTEES UI SAMPLE
REGULAR UI PUA (PUA + HAVING HAVING HAVING UI (AMONG ALL HAVING
GROUP EXHAUSTEES EXHAUSTEES REGULAR) EXHAUSTED EXHAUSTED EXHAUSTED EXHAUSTEES EXHAUSTEES) EXHAUSTED
Statewide 166,086 582,677 748,763 5.7 40.4 17.2 553,359 100 19.0
By Gender
Male 80,943 294,131 375,074 5.9 38.4 17.5 272,787 49.5 19.8
Female 84,064 288,714 372,778 5.6 42.7 17.1 278,196 50.5 18.5
By Race and Ethnicity
White 47,421 133,508 180,929 5.5 29.2 19.5 152,884 30.0 17.7
Black 20,767 39,959 60,726 8.4 22.7 14.3 69,381 13.6 28.2
Hispanic 57,720 153,770 211,490 5.4 63.8 17.9 193,701 38.0 18.0
Asian 25,553 114,938 140,491 5.8 69.0 22.6 93,992 18.4 21.2
By Generation
Gen Z 68,615 50,863 119,478 7.1 39.4 13.7 92,804 17.0 19.2
(16-23)
Millenials 36,964 206,822 243,786 5.6 42.2 14.4 227,906 41.7 18.7
(24-38)
Gen X 23,398 181,704 205,102 5.3 40.3 16.1 130,602 23.9 18.8
(40-55)
Baby 47,421 132,457 179,878 5.1 39.3 23.0 95,727 17.5 20.9
Boomers
(56+)
Notes: See text and appendix for methodology. The sample size of current regular UI claimants who can potentially exhaust benefits is 2,909,543. The sample size of current PUA claimants
who can potentially exhaust benefits is 1,442,290. This table assumes exit rates equivalent to the average seen over the last 10 weeks for each claim type x demographic group.
Cliff 2 does not include PUA exhaustees, but does include regular UI exhaustees who exhaust by Cliff 1. White and Black do not include those identifying as Hispanic. Table does not show
information on claimants in which race is unknown, specified as 'other', or specified as Native American or Alaskan Native, due to small sample sizes. Table also does not include claimants not
reporting gender, age, or race/ethnicity. We also assessed the impact of different exit rates. For example, if the actual rate of exit was 20% smaller than the average over the 10 weeks we are
using, the total number of PUA claimants that would be predicted to exhaust is 701,138 (see Technical Appendix).
30 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Acknowledgments
We gratefully acknowledge the Labor Market Information Division of the California Employment Development Department for their
partnership in producing this analysis. This research was made possible through support from Arnold Ventures, The James Irvine
Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Russell Sage Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the University of California
Office of the President Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives, and the Bylo Chacon Foundation. We also thank the UCLA Social
Science Division, the UCLA Vice Chancellor for Research and Creative Activities, the Luskin School of Public Affairs and the California
Center for Population Research for their support. We thank Roozbeh Moghadam at EDD and CPL for helpful research support. All errors
should be attributed to the authors.
Background on the data in this report and exhaustion calculations
The size and richness of the administrative data we use allows us to analyze how the crisis in the labor market has affected workers by
gender, age, education, race, and ethnic groups, as well as by detailed regions and industries. These analyses complement both traditional
survey-based measures of labor market outcomes, which are very detailed but suffer from large lags and low frequency, and weekly
publications of total UI claims, which are timely but lack the detail available here. These data allow us to track the fast-moving nature of the
crisis and to help inform assistance for workers and firms affected by the upheaval in the labor market.
The methodology for calculating exhaustions is available as a separate Appendix available on the CPL website.
For inquiries about the definitions, methodology, and findings of this policy brief, please contact Till von Wachter.
Email: tvwachter@econ.ucla.edu.
To obtain the data tabulations used in this policy brief, please contact: Dr. Muhammad Akhtar, Deputy Division Chief, Labor Market Information
Division, California Employment Development Department. Email: Muhammad.Akhtar@edd.ca.gov.
The California Policy Lab builds better lives through data-driven policy. We are a project of the University of California, with sites at the Berkeley
and Los Angeles campuses.
This research publication reflects the views of the authors and not necessarily the views of our funders, our staff, our advisory board, the California
Employment Development Department, or the Regents of the University of California.
31 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Supplementary Appendix
TABLE A1: Income Classification of Households Receiving Unemployment Insurance Benefits in California Under Different
Scenarios
INCOME LIMIT (DEPENDING ON SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD)
1 Person 2 People 3 People 4 People
Above Moderate Income
Moderate Income: 1,407 1,608 1,809 2,010
Median Income: 1,173 1,340 1,508 1,675
Low Income: 942 1,077 1,212 1,346
Very Low Income 586 670 754 838
CATEGORIZATION BASED ON TYPE OF CLAIMANTS
1 Person 2 People 3 People 4 People
Total UI
Size of Household: Regular Benefits Income ($)
1x Median WBA Very Low Income Very Low Income Very Low Income Very Low Income 345
1x Maximum WBA Very Low Income Very Low Income Very Low Income Very Low Income 450
2x Median WBA N/A Low Income Very Low Income Very Low Income 700
2x Maximum WBA N/A Low Income Low Income Low Income 900
Including $300 LWA Benefits
1x Median WBA Low Income Very Low Income Very Low Income Very Low Income 650
1x Maximum WBA Low Income Low Income Very Low Income Very Low Income 750
2x Median WBA N/A Median Income Median Income Low Income 1,300
2x Maximum WBA N/A Median Income Median Income Median Income 1,500
Including $600 FPUC Benefits
1x Median WBA Median Income Low Income Low Income Low Income 950
1x Maximum WBA Median Income Low Income Low Income Low Income 1,050
2x Median WBA N/A Above Moderate Income Above Moderate Income Moderate Income 1,900
2x Maximum WBA N/A Above Moderate Income Above Moderate Income Above Moderate Income 2,100
32 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE A1: Regular UI: Total Number of Individuals Paid Benefits by Week of Unemployment, Total Number of Individuals Certifying
for Benefit by Week of Certification, and Total Number Payments Certified by Week of Certification, 2/8/2020- 10/31/2020
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
Number of Payments Certified
(By Week of Certification)
3,000,000
Individuals Paid Benefits
(By Week of Unemployment)
2,000,000
Individuals Certifying
(By Week of Certification)
1,000,000
0
Feb 22 Mar 21 Apr 18 May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31
Week Ending
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays.
This figure excludes PUA claimants, and includes payments to invidiuals on extension programs.
The "Number of Payments Certified" refers to the number of payments that were certified during a given week (the common definition of continued UI claims).
The "Number of Individuals Certifying" refers to the number of people that certify for UI benefits in a given week.
FIGURE A2: PUA: Total Number of Individuals Paid Benefits by Week of Unemployment, Total Number of Individuals Certifying
for Benefits by Week of Certification, and Total Number Payments Certified by Week of Certification, 2/8/2020- 10/31/2020
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
Number of Payments Certified
2,000,000 (By Week of Certification)
Individuals Paid Benefits
1,000,000 (By Week of Unemployment)
Individuals Certifying
(By Week of Certification)
0
Feb 22 Mar 21 Apr 18 May 16 Jun 13 Jul 11 Aug 8 Sep 5 Oct 3 Oct 31
Week Ending
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays.
This figure includes PUA claimants only.
The "Number of Payments Certified" refers to the number of payments that were certified during a given week (the common definition of continued UI claims).
The "Number of Individuals Certifying" refers to the number of people that certify for UI benefits in a given week.
33 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
TABLE A2: Individuals Potentially Eligible for Any UI Benefits and Receiving Regular UI Benefits, Total and as Fraction of the Labor Force and the
Unemployed, and Share with Reduced UI Benefits, for Unemployment in the Week Ending October 17th
INDIVIDUALS INDIVIDUALS
WITH PERCENT OF WITH INDIVIDUALS
PARTIAL UI POTENTIALLY POTENTIALLY RECEIVING FULL
INDIVIDUALS PAYMENTS ELIGIBLE ELIGIBLE CLAIMS WBA
WITH INDIVIDUALS AS A PERCENT INDIVIDUALS AS A PERCENT AS A PERCENT OF
POTENTIALLY WITH OF ALL PAID WITH OF FEB LABOR UNEMPLOYED IN
GROUP ELIGIBLE CLAIMS CLAIMS PAID CLAIMS PAYMENT DENIED FORCE SEPTEMBER
Statewide 3,373,819 3,229,830 8.5 4.3 17.4 143.3
By Gender
Female 1,673,056 1,594,792 10.6 4.7 19.0 141.6
Male 1,647,395 1,585,887 6.4 3.7 15.5 140.5
By Age Group
16–19 106,102 102,135 6.5 3.7 20.0 97.3
20–24 424,582 407,197 9.6 4.1 24.4 131.1
25–34 884,920 850,165 8.6 3.9 18.5 118.7
35–44 646,037 618,374 7.9 4.3 15.0 171.8
45–54 548,740 521,763 8.7 4.9 14.1 163.2
55–64 474,476 452,492 8.9 4.6 15.7 152.3
65–85 212,724 205,809 8.0 3.3 18.5 152.1
By Race and Ethnicity
White 996,694 950,907 8.3 4.6 13.3 117.1
Hispanic 1,034,417 985,144 9.6 4.8 14.2 103.9
Asian 470,119 448,068 12.1 4.7 15.5 145.9
Black 338,324 331,309 4.8 2.1 32.6 178.0
By Education
High School 1,247,621 1,189,197 10.8 4.7 19.0 130.8
Degree or Less
Associate’s Deg., 644,428 611,955 11.9 5.0 12.7 76.7
Some College
Bachelor's 353,805 331,313 11.8 6.4 4.6 53.1
Degree or More
Notes: "Potentially Eligible" includes claims which are either paid or have payment denied due to excess weekly earnings or full-time work. This table does not include PUA claimants.
34 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE A3: Percent of Potentially Eligible Claims with Payment Denied Due to Excess Earnings, and Partial UI as a Percent of
Paid Claims, by Industry, 1/26/2020- 10/17/2020
Percent of All Eligible Claimants
With Payment Denied Due To Excess Earnings or FT Work Percent of All Paid Claimants Receiving Partial UI
20 25
20
15
Accommodation and Food Services
15
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
10
10
Health Care and Social Assistance Manufacturing
Retail Trade
5 Manufacturing Admin. Support, Waste Man.
Accommodation and Food Services
5
Admin. Support, Waste Man.
0 0
Feb 8 Mar 7 Apr 4 May 2 May 30 Jun 27 Jul 25 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 17 Feb 8 Mar 7 Apr 4 May 2 May 30 Jun 27 Jul 25 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 17
Week of Unemployment
Week of Unemployment
X-axis labels correspond to Saturdays. Does not include PUA claims. Partial UI is as a percent of all paid claimants. Denied UI payment is a percent of potentially eligible claimants,
which is the sum of the number of paid claimants and the number of claimants denied because of excess weekly earnings or full time work (see text).
FIGURE A4 : Projected Transitions to The Pandemic Economic Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) Program
Regular UI Claimants Projected to Transition to PEUC
350,000
Projection begins
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
20 20 20 20 -2
0
-2
0
-2
0 20 20 20
8- 6- 3- 1- -8 -5 -3 1- 8- 6-
-1 -1 -1 -1 08 09 10 -3 -2 -2
04 05 06 07 10 11 12
Week
This projection assumes claimants who have used partial UI since certifying will continue to use Partial UI at the same rate.
It assumes claimants will not exit and then return to UI.
This projection assumes UI claimants will continue to exit at the same rate going forward as they have on average over the
latest 10 weeks available.
35 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
FIGURE A5: Regular UI Exhaustion Projections, Cumulative, Various Exit-Rate Scenarios
Regular UI Claimants Projected to Transition to PEUC
350,000
Projection begins
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
20 20 20 20 -2
0
-2
0
-2
0 20 20 20
8- 6- 3- 1- -8 -5 -3 1- 8- 6-
-1 -1 -1 -1 08 09 10 -3 -2 -2
04 05 06 07 10 11 12
Week
This projection assumes claimants who have used partial UI since certifying will continue to use Partial UI at the same rate.
It assumes claimants will not exit and then return to UI.
This projection assumes UI claimants will continue to exit at the same rate going forward as they have on average over the
latest 10 weeks available.
FIGURE A6 : Projected Transitions to the FED-ED Extension Program
Regular UI Claimants Projected to Transition to FED-ED
1,000,000 Projection begins
873,412
900,000
PEUC Expiration:
800,000 Claimants who exhaust regular UI
benefits first transition to PEUC,
700,000 which expires at the end of 2020.
Once PEUC expires, they then
600,000 transition to FED-ED, if they are
eligible.
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
20 0 0 0 20 20 20 21 21 21 21
1- -2 -2 -2 1- 8- 6- 3- 0- 0- 7-
-1 -8 -5 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1
07 08 09 10 10 11 12 01 02 03 04
Week
This projection assumes claimants who have used partial UI since certifying will continue to use Partial UI at the same rate.
It assumes claimants will not exit and then return to UI.
This projection assumes UI claimants will continue to exit at the same rate going forward as they have on average over the
latest 10 weeks available.
36 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Endnotes
1
This includes new claims, additional claims, and transitional claims. It excludes claims filed in CA by workers residing in a border state (but working in CA), and short-time
compensation claims. When a claimant first files for UI benefits following a job loss, the claimant starts a 52-week benefit year, a period during which the benefits (typically
available for 26 weeks) are payable. A “new claim” is the first claim for a given benefit year. An “additional claim” is a second (or higher) claim filed during the same benefit year
after a temporary return to work. A “transitional claim” is filed when a claimant is still collecting benefits at the end of their benefit year period and is eligible to begin a new
one. As per the California Employment Development Department, see: https://www.edd.ca.gov/about_edd/Quick_Statistics_Information_by_County.htm (Accessed April 24th,
2020).
2 CPL calculations find $131.7 million less federal dollars from PUA expiring; $41.5 million less from PEUC expiring. In addition, when federally funded PEUC expires, nearly
870,000 regular UI claimants will roll over to FED-ED. While the federal government currently pays all of the costs of the FED-ED benefits, starting in January 2021, the costs
(currently estimated at $218,353,000 a week) are split evenly between states and the federal government, which will mean a $109 million weekly cost shifting to the state.
Please contact CPL for exact projections.
3 Unique initial claims since March 15th chiefly consist of new initial claims. If an individual that was a UI recipient before the start of the crisis, and filed an additional or a
transitional claim on or after March 15th, they would be included in unique claims.
4 The standard base period includes the first four of the last five completed calendar quarters as of the date of the claim. The WBA is approximately equal to 50% of average
weekly earnings during the highest earning quarter of the base period, up to the maximum of $450. The earnings cut off to receive the maximum WBA is $898/week.
Claimants are eligible for benefits if earnings in the highest quarter are at least $1300, or if earnings in the highest quarter are at least $900 and earnings in the entire base
period are at least 125% of the highest quarterly amount. Workers not meeting these thresholds may qualify through the so-called Alternative Base Period, as described
below. The data on initial claims used in this report contain an indicator for whether a claimant is eligible for UI benefits based on their prior earnings history. For those eligible,
the data also contains an estimate of the WBA. This information is not based on actual benefit payments, and in some cases actual weekly payment amounts may deviate
from what is recorded in the initial claims file. To receive FPUC starting March 29th, the worker does not have to file by that date, and will receive FPUC as long as their
unemployment spell is covered by UI and falls on or after March29th. In some cases, UI benefits, including FPUC payments, are paid retroactively. Hence, not all beneficiaries
started receiving FPUC payments on March 29th. As discussed elsewhere in this report, these WBA are reduced if an claimant has earnings above a disregard.
5 The data on initial claims used in this report contain an indicator whether a claimant is eligible for UI benefits based on their prior earnings history. For those eligible, the data
also contains an estimate of the WBA. This information is not based on actual benefit payments, and in some cases actual weekly payment amounts may deviate from what is
recorded in the initial claims file.
6 https://www.edd.ca.gov/about_edd/coronavirus-2019/lost-wages-assistance.htm
7 https://www.hcd.ca.gov/grants-funding/income-limits/state-and-federal-income-limits/docs/Income-Limits-2020.pdf
8 Labor force numbers by age and gender provided here: https://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/specialreports/CA_Employment_Summary_Table.pdf Labor Force numbers by
county provided here: https://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/geography/lmi-by-county.html.
9 We obtain industry by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) from the main employer in the worker’s base period as recorded in the Quarterly Census
of Employment and Wages (QCEW). The base period consists of the first four of the last five completed quarters as of the date of the claim. Since the QCEW is last available
for the second calendar quarter of 2019, tabulations by industry are only available for firms that were active in the second quarter of 2019. We were able to link the vast
majority of claims to a NAICS industry code in this way. It is important to note that the primary employer in a claimant’s base period is not necessarily the claimant’s last
employer before the claim is filed.
10 We exclude PUA claims from this section since most of them are filed by self-employed individuals. Benefits are denied if 75% of earnings in a given week are above the Weekly
Benefit Amount (WBA), i.e., if 0.75*earnings (or earnings less $25, whichever is smaller) are greater than the claimant’s WBA. Thus the claimant can earn 4/3 of their WBA
and maintain eligibility. The WBA, and hence the earnings cut off for partial UI, depends on the highest earning quarter in the base period, and is generally about ½ of average
prior weekly earnings. Thus, a claimant can earn about 4/3 x ½ = 2/3 of their prior average weekly earnings while maintaining eligibility.
11 In partial UI, the first 25% of earnings in a week, or $25 (whichever is less) is disregarded, to incentivize part-time work. Every dollar earned beyond this disregard amount is
deducted 1 for 1 from the claimants WBA. Thus, for claimants earning greater than $25 a week but less than 133% of their WBA, the following applies: Partial UI Payment =
WBA – 0.75 x Weekly Earnings. If the claimant earns $25 or less per week, they receive the full WBA, and if they earn more than 133% of their WBA, they are not considered
unemployed by EDD, and thus do not receive payment.
12 https://twitter.com/CA_EDD/status/1253514809158430722?s=20
13 Although some of these claimants will have already exited by the time of the writing of this report (due to censoring, we cannot know exactly how many), our projections of
exit rates are designed to account for this. This is further discussed in the Technical Appendix.
14 These exhaustion projections pertain only to the stock of current claimants. However, one could incorporate the fact that a number of new initial PUA claims may arrive in the
future and exhaust as follows. Supposing 15,000 new initial PUA claimants arrive over the next 10 weeks (based on Table 1), with a constant 5.8% exit probability each week,
109,584 new PUA initial claims could be filed between now and the program’s expiration. The actual number is likely to be lower, because not all of the new claims actually
receive benefits. Assuming that 75% of initial claimants end up taking up UI benefits, the number is that 75% of these claims are eligible, one might expect to see on the order
of 82,188 new initial PUA claims filed after today that exhaust benefits at the end of the year.
15 Our predicted number of exhaustions from PUA at the December cliff differ from a recent report from the Century Foundation because we start with the stock of unique
individuals currently receiving benefits rather than the number of claims filed (which has recently been overstating the stock of UI recipients because of retroactive claims, see
Figure 9A) and because we base our exhaustion rate on the recently observed rates of exit from UI (see Figure 13A). For more detail, see the Technical Appendix.
37 capolicylab.org CA UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
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