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Addressing Climate as a Systemic Risk: The Need to Build Resilience Within Our Banking and Financial System, House hearing transcript (June 30, 2021), GovInfo CHRG-117hhrg45383, PDF

Summary

This is the transcript of a June 30, 2021 hybrid hearing of the Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Financial Institutions of the House Committee on Financial Services on climate change as a systemic risk to banks and the financial system. The witnesses were Hilary J. Allen of American University Washington College of Law, Rachel Cleetus of the Union of Concerned Scientists, Mayra Rodriguez Valladares of MRV Associates, Clifford V. Rossi of the University of Maryland and Steven Rothstein of the Ceres Accelerator for Sustainable Capital Markets. Chairman Perlmutter opened by comparing climate risk with the 2008 housing bubble. Perlmutter said that in 2020 more than 58,000 wildfires burned 10.1 million acres and caused $20 billion in damages.

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Full text

                                                          ADDRESSING CLIMATE AS A
                                                         SYSTEMIC RISK: THE NEED TO
                                                         BUILD RESILIENCE WITHIN OUR
                                                        BANKING AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM


                                                             HYBRID HEARING
                                                                                 BEFORE THE

                                              SUBCOMMITTEE ON CONSUMER PROTECTION
                                                   AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
                                                                                    OF THE


                                           COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES
                                            U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
                                                    ONE HUNDRED SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS
                                                                               FIRST SESSION



                                                                                JUNE 30, 2021



                                                    Printed for the use of the Committee on Financial Services


                                                                     Serial No. 117–36



                                                                                   (

                                                                   U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE
                                           45–383 PDF                          WASHINGTON : 2021




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                                                          HOUSE COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES
                                                                   MAXINE WATERS, California, Chairwoman

                                      CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York                        PATRICK MCHENRY, North Carolina,
                                      NYDIA M. VELÁZQUEZ, New York                         Ranking Member
                                      BRAD SHERMAN, California                            FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma
                                      GREGORY W. MEEKS, New York                          PETE SESSIONS, Texas
                                      DAVID SCOTT, Georgia                                BILL POSEY, Florida
                                      AL GREEN, Texas                                     BLAINE LUETKEMEYER, Missouri
                                      EMANUEL CLEAVER, Missouri                           BILL HUIZENGA, Michigan
                                      ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado                             ANN WAGNER, Missouri
                                      JIM A. HIMES, Connecticut                           ANDY BARR, Kentucky
                                      BILL FOSTER, Illinois                               ROGER WILLIAMS, Texas
                                      JOYCE BEATTY, Ohio                                  FRENCH HILL, Arkansas
                                      JUAN VARGAS, California                             TOM EMMER, Minnesota
                                      JOSH GOTTHEIMER, New Jersey                         LEE M. ZELDIN, New York
                                      VICENTE GONZALEZ, Texas                             BARRY LOUDERMILK, Georgia
                                      AL LAWSON, Florida                                  ALEXANDER X. MOONEY, West Virginia
                                      MICHAEL SAN NICOLAS, Guam                           WARREN DAVIDSON, Ohio
                                      CINDY AXNE, Iowa                                    TED BUDD, North Carolina
                                      SEAN CASTEN, Illinois                               DAVID KUSTOFF, Tennessee
                                      AYANNA PRESSLEY, Massachusetts                      TREY HOLLINGSWORTH, Indiana
                                      RITCHIE TORRES, New York                            ANTHONY GONZALEZ, Ohio
                                      STEPHEN F. LYNCH, Massachusetts                     JOHN ROSE, Tennessee
                                      ALMA ADAMS, North Carolina                          BRYAN STEIL, Wisconsin
                                      RASHIDA TLAIB, Michigan                             LANCE GOODEN, Texas
                                      MADELEINE DEAN, Pennsylvania                        WILLIAM TIMMONS, South Carolina
                                      ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ, New York                  VAN TAYLOR, Texas
                                      JESÚS ‘‘CHUY’’ GARCIA, Illinois
                                      SYLVIA GARCIA, Texas
                                      NIKEMA WILLIAMS, Georgia
                                      JAKE AUCHINCLOSS, Massachusetts


                                                                      CHARLA OUERTATANI, Staff Director




                                                                                      (II)




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                                             SUBCOMMITTEE ON CONSUMER PROTECTION AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
                                                                   ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado, Chairman

                                      GREGORY W. MEEKS, New York                          BLAINE LUETKEMEYER, Missouri, Ranking
                                      DAVID SCOTT, Georgia                                  Member
                                      NYDIA M. VELÁZQUEZ, New York                       FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma
                                      BRAD SHERMAN, California                            BILL POSEY, Florida
                                      AL GREEN, Texas                                     ANDY BARR, Kentucky
                                      BILL FOSTER, Illinois                               ROGER WILLIAMS, Texas
                                      JUAN VARGAS, California                             BARRY LOUDERMILK, Georgia
                                      AL LAWSON, Florida                                  TED BUDD, North Carolina
                                      MICHAEL SAN NICOLAS, Guam                           DAVID KUSTOFF, Tennessee, Vice Ranking
                                      SEAN CASTEN, Illinois                                 Member
                                      AYANNA PRESSLEY, Massachusetts                      JOHN ROSE, Tennessee
                                      RITCHIE TORRES, New York                            WILLIAM TIMMONS, South Carolina




                                                                                      (III)




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                                                                                    CONTENTS

                                                                                                                                                                  Page
                                      Hearing held on:
                                         June 30, 2021 ....................................................................................................         1
                                      Appendix:
                                         June 30, 2021 ....................................................................................................        31

                                                                                            WITNESSES

                                                                                 WEDNESDAY, JUNE 30, 2021
                                      Allen, Hilary J., Associate Professor of Law, American University Washington
                                        College of Law ......................................................................................................       6
                                      Cleetus, Rachel, Policy Director, Union of Concerned Scientists ........................                                      7
                                      Rodriguez Valladares, Mayra, Managing Principal, MRV Associates .................                                             9
                                      Rossi, Clifford V., Executive-in-Residence and Professor-of-the-Practice, Rob-
                                        ert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland ................................                                   13
                                      Rothstein, Steven, Managing Director, Ceres Accelerator for Sustainable Cap-
                                        ital Markets ..........................................................................................................    11

                                                                                             APPENDIX
                                      Prepared statements:
                                          Allen, Hilary J. .................................................................................................       32
                                          Cleetus, Rachel .................................................................................................        52
                                          Rodriguez Valladares, Mayra ..........................................................................                   66
                                          Rossi, Clifford V. ...............................................................................................       95
                                          Rothstein, Steven ..............................................................................................        104

                                                              ADDITIONAL MATERIAL SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD
                                      Perlmutter, Hon. Ed:
                                          CoreLogic 2020 Climate Change Catastrophe Report ...................................                                    139




                                                                                                    (V)




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                                                      ADDRESSING CLIMATE AS A
                                                     SYSTEMIC RISK: THE NEED TO
                                                    BUILD RESILIENCE WITHIN OUR
                                                   BANKING AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM

                                                                     Wednesday, June 30, 2021

                                                          U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,
                                                      SUBCOMMITTEE ON CONSUMER PROTECTION
                                                                   AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS,
                                                                COMMITTEE ON FINANCIAL SERVICES,
                                                                                       Washington, D.C.
                                         The subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 2:01 p.m., in room
                                      2128, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Ed Perlmutter [chair-
                                      man of the subcommittee] presiding.
                                         Members present: Representatives Perlmutter, Foster, Vargas,
                                      Lawson, Casten; Luetkemeyer, Lucas, Posey, Barr, Loudermilk,
                                      Kustoff, and Timmons.
                                         Ex officio present: Representatives Waters and McHenry.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. The Subcommittee on Consumer Protec-
                                      tion and Financial Institutions will come to order.
                                         Without objection, the Chair is authorized to declare a recess of
                                      the subcommittee at any time. Also, without objection, members of
                                      the full Financial Services Committee who are not members of this
                                      subcommittee are authorized to participate in today’s hearing.
                                         With the hybrid format of this hearing, we have some Members
                                      and witnesses participating in person, and others on the Webex
                                      platform.
                                         I would like to remind all Members participating remotely to
                                      keep themselves muted when they are not being recognized by the
                                      Chair. The staff has been instructed not to mute Members except
                                      when a Member is not being recognized by the Chair, and there is
                                      inadvertent background noise.
                                         Members are also reminded that they may only participate in
                                      one remote proceeding at a time. If you are participating remotely
                                      today, please keep your camera on, and if you choose to attend a
                                      different remote proceeding, please turn your camera off.
                                         Today’s hearing is entitled, ‘‘Addressing Climate as a Systemic
                                      Risk: The Need to Build Resilience Within Our Banking and Finan-
                                      cial System.’’
                                         I now recognize myself for 4 minutes to give an opening state-
                                      ment.
                                         In 2008, the housing bubble collapse and financial crisis caught
                                      many experts, investors, and policymakers off guard, and the re-
                                                                                          (1)




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                                                                                          2

                                      sulting Great Recession devastated communities across the coun-
                                      try.
                                         When threats to financial stability are not properly valued and
                                      mitigated, the consequences can be severe and longstanding: 2020
                                      tied 2016 as the hottest year on record, and the 7 hottest years re-
                                      corded have all occurred since 2014. In 2020 alone, more than
                                      58,000 wildfires burned 10.1 million acres and caused $20 billion
                                      in damages.
                                         In my home State of Colorado, in addition to more severe and
                                      frequent wildfires, we are seeing less annual snowpack, more water
                                      scarcity and droughts, and more heat waves. These changes pose
                                      long-term risks for Colorado’s agriculture, tourism, and housing in-
                                      dustries.
                                         Whether it is rising sea levels threatening coastal communities,
                                      more severe hurricanes on the East and Gulf Coasts, wildfires in
                                      the West, or regional climate changes affecting crop yields on the
                                      plains, climate change is affecting every State and community in
                                      our nation.
                                         These risks are intertwined with the financial system. Insurers
                                      can expect more claims related to extreme weather events, lenders
                                      will see more risks in underwriting carbon-dependent industries,
                                      and economic changes will affect asset values across many sectors.
                                      Climate change is creating significant and complex risks in our fi-
                                      nancial system that we cannot ignore.
                                         Last month, President Biden signed an Executive Order directing
                                      the National Economic Council, the Treasury Department, and the
                                      Office of Management and Budget to develop a government-wide
                                      strategy for evaluating and addressing climate-related financial
                                      risk and assessing the necessary financing to achieve net-zero
                                      emissions by 2050.
                                         Several of the financial regulators have already begun work to
                                      understand climate risk. We can either work together in Congress
                                      and across the government to coordinate sensible policies to evalu-
                                      ate and mitigate financial risk related to climate, and help our
                                      economy transition to a carbon-neutral future, or we can wait until
                                      the market and the consequences of climate change dictate such ac-
                                      tions for us.
                                         Last week, I reintroduced the Green Neighborhoods Act, a bill
                                      aimed at making the housing sector more energy-efficient, and en-
                                      suring that workers can get trained for green jobs. This is one ex-
                                      ample of how Congress can help facilitate an orderly transition of
                                      our economy and make the housing sector greener.
                                         The canary in the coal mine has stopped singing. We must act
                                      now to ensure our financial system is resilient in the face of cli-
                                      mate change and the economic transition.
                                         Today’s hearing will examine physical and transition risks posed
                                      by climate change and how financial regulators can work to evalu-
                                      ate and mitigate these risks. I look forward to our discussion today,
                                      so we can ensure that our financial system is ready for what is
                                      coming.
                                         With that, I now recognize the ranking member of the sub-
                                      committee, Mr. Luetkemeyer from Missouri, for 4 minutes for an
                                      opening statement.
                                         Mr. LUETKEMEYER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.




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                                                                                          3

                                         Climate risk has certainly been a buzzword, both within the
                                      banking industry and within the Biden Administration. The Ad-
                                      ministration has issued multiple Executive Orders focused on cli-
                                      mate risk, specifically an Executive Order titled, ‘‘Climate-Related
                                      Financial Risk,’’ which requires the Financial Stability Oversight
                                      Council (FSOC) to assess climate-related financial risk to the sta-
                                      bility of the Federal Government and the stability of the financial
                                      system.
                                         Within the Administration, the Federal Reserve has been the
                                      most active regulator in this space. In May, they announced the es-
                                      tablishment of the Financial Stability Climate Committee to iden-
                                      tify, assess, and address climate-related risk. Furthermore, the
                                      Federal Reserve has requested information from lenders on how
                                      they handle climate risk at their institutions.
                                         Let me be clear: Federal regulators should understand how fi-
                                      nancial institutions are handling risk mitigation in their lending
                                      portfolio. This includes numerous types of risk, including credit
                                      risk, concentration risk, and default risk.
                                         However, the inclusion of climate-related financial risk must be
                                      better understood by both regulators and financial institutions be-
                                      fore any framework around this risk can be initiated.
                                         It is clear that certain financial institutions, particularly the
                                      largest U.S. firms, are including climate risk in their risk-assess-
                                      ment processes. The U.S. global systemically important banks (G-
                                      SIBs) have all limited their approach to carbon financing in one
                                      way or another. Some have pledged to provide investments in sus-
                                      tainable businesses and technologies, and others have pledged to
                                      reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in their financial activities
                                      by a certain year.
                                         As the economy and consumer demands change, it is appropriate
                                      for financial institutions to change as well. Ensuring your lending
                                      and investment portfolio is diversified and risk-averse is a core
                                      tenet of risk management.
                                         However, as financial institutions move in the direction of sus-
                                      tainable investment, it is appropriate to determine if the U.S. econ-
                                      omy, in particular the energy industry, is ready to move away from
                                      fossil fuels and carbon-intensive energy.
                                         Will the energy sector be choked off from financial services that
                                      they need to exist? What are the costs of the transition risks to the
                                      U.S. economy?
                                         These are questions that must be seriously considered and un-
                                      derstood before an industry-wide stance is taken regarding invest-
                                      ments in carbon-intensive industries.
                                         While Federal regulators should understand these risks, I must
                                      associate myself with the comments of Federal Reserve Vice Chair-
                                      man of Supervision Randal Quarles, who said, ‘‘Broad climate pol-
                                      icy is the role of Congress and other Federal agencies, not the Fed-
                                      eral Reserve.’’
                                         Congress should not deputize the financial services industry to
                                      be the climate police, greenlighting sustainable projects and shut-
                                      ting down legally-operating businesses that are carbon-intensive,
                                      especially when they have no understanding of how climate risks
                                      will impact the economy and do not have sufficient data and mod-
                                      eling to determine these impacts.




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                                                                                          4

                                         The Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress
                                      testing amongst financial institutions looks 9 quarters into the fu-
                                      ture. Most climate change models look about 30 to 100 years into
                                      the future. If we go down the path of forcing institutions to specu-
                                      late on future risk, and tying their capital requirements to this risk
                                      before we have an appropriate understanding of the economic im-
                                      pacts and the effect on access to credit and the ability of the energy
                                      sector to pivot to new technologies, we could do irreparable harm
                                      to our economy.
                                         And yet, that is exactly what my colleagues on the other side of
                                      the aisle are proposing. They have noticed legislation in this hear-
                                      ing that would directly tie climate-related risks to bank capital by
                                      increasing the risk weighting of assets financing greenhouse gas
                                      (GHG) emissions.
                                         This is an extremely irresponsible proposal. Again, we have no
                                      understanding of how this would impact the economy, no real data
                                      on how this would impact the world’s climate, no clear information
                                      on how we can accurately predict climate-related financial risk, and
                                      no clear understanding of how transition risks could impact the
                                      safety and soundness of financial institutions and the U.S. economy
                                      at large.
                                         I look forward to bringing up these concerns with the panelists
                                      today.
                                         And with that, Mr. Chairman, I yield back.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. The gentleman yields back.
                                         The Chair of the full Financial Services Committee, the gentle-
                                      woman from California, Chairwoman Waters, is now recognized for
                                      1 minute.
                                         Chairwoman WATERS. Thank you, Chairman Perlmutter.
                                         Over the past year, we have witnessed examples of how climate
                                      change can disrupt our financial system. The financial toll, includ-
                                      ing insurance losses from the most devastating wildfire seasons on
                                      record, grew so sharply that our Governor in California had to
                                      issue a moratorium to prevent insurers from denying insurance
                                      coverage to homeowners.
                                         Meanwhile, the hundreds of bankruptcies in the oil and gas sec-
                                      tor as a result of the economic fallout from COVID-19 have pro-
                                      vided a preview of the type of pain our economy will likely face as
                                      climate change becomes worse.
                                         I am pleased that President Biden, Treasury Secretary Yellen,
                                      and policymakers at the Fed and elsewhere have listened to those
                                      of us who have raised concerns about the urgent financial stability
                                      risk of climate change and that they are beginning to take action.
                                         So, I am looking forward to the hearing today. And I assure you,
                                      Chairman Perlmutter, that we are going to be hearing from Seattle
                                      and Portland. Portland was 116 degrees as of yesterday, and Se-
                                      attle was 104 as of Sunday. And I don’t know what financial dis-
                                      ruption this is going to cause, but climate change is real.
                                         I yield back the balance of my time.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. The gentlelady yields back.
                                         The ranking member of the Full Committee, the gentleman from
                                      North Carolina, Ranking Member McHenry, is recognized for 1
                                      minute.
                                         Mr. MCHENRY. Thank you, Chairman Perlmutter.




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                                                                                          5

                                         You have heard me say this before, and I have said it repeatedly:
                                      Climate change is real. But instead of taking the time to get this
                                      legislation right, my Democrat colleagues are once again rushing to
                                      legislate to appease the progressive left.
                                         Usurious policies will have far-reaching and unintended harmful
                                      consequences. Just as with the so-called Climate Crisis Financial
                                      Stability Act, without doing any work, without listening to any ex-
                                      perts, without any data, the Democrats want to take the step of de-
                                      termining risks for financial institutions and punishing certain in-
                                      stitutions with a capital surcharge.
                                         Now, not only is this unrealistic, I think it is a dangerous step.
                                      We need to make sure that any next step strengthens the resil-
                                      iency of the system and seriously addresses climate risk, not ap-
                                      peases some progressive stakeholder group.
                                         I yield back.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. The gentleman yields back.
                                         And I would just like to alert the Members and the panelists that
                                      we are expecting votes probably around 3:00, and what I would like
                                      to do is get through the statements of all of the witnesses as much
                                      as we can before we have to take a break for those votes. And if
                                      we can get some questioning in before the votes are called, we will
                                      do that. Otherwise, we will recess until we finish the votes on the
                                      Floor, and then we will reconvene once the votes are finished.
                                         With that, we will turn to our witnesses.
                                         Professor Hilary Allen is an associate professor of law at Amer-
                                      ican University. Professor Allen’s research is focused on domestic
                                      and international financial stability regulation, and she teaches
                                      classes in banking law, securities regulation, financial regulation,
                                      and other topics.
                                         Dr. Rachel Cleetus is a policy director with the Union of Con-
                                      cerned Scientists. Dr. Cleetus is an economist with 20 years of ex-
                                      perience working on climate and clean energy policies and is an ex-
                                      pert on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
                                      Change process.
                                         Ms. Mayra Rodriguez Valladares is the managing principal with
                                      MRV Associates. Ms. Rodriguez Valladares is an independent con-
                                      sultant who has advised central banks, insurers, regulators, and fi-
                                      nancial services firms on risk and compliance issues.
                                         Mr. Steven Rothstein is the managing director of Ceres Accel-
                                      erator for Sustainable Capital Markets. Mr. Rothstein’s work at
                                      Ceres Accelerator is focused on transforming practices governing
                                      capital markets to reduce the financial impacts of the climate cri-
                                      sis.
                                         And Dr. Clifford Rossi is the executive-in-residence and professor
                                      of the practice at the Robert H. Smith School of Business, Univer-
                                      sity of Maryland. Dr. Rossi has almost 25 years of experience in
                                      government and financial services and has held senior roles in risk
                                      management at several of the largest financial services companies.
                                         Our witnesses are reminded that their oral testimony will be lim-
                                      ited to 5 minutes. You should be able to see a timer on your screen
                                      or on your desk in front of you that will indicate how much time
                                      you have left. When you have 1 minute remaining, a yellow light
                                      will appear. I would ask that you be mindful of the timer, and
                                      when the light appears, wrap up your testimony so that we can be




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                                      respectful of both the other witnesses’ and the subcommittee mem-
                                      bers’ time.
                                        And without objection, your written statements will be made a
                                      part of the record.
                                        Professor Allen, you are now recognized for 5 minutes to give an
                                      oral presentation of your testimony.

                                      STATEMENT OF HILARY J. ALLEN, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF
                                      LAW, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY WASHINGTON COLLEGE OF LAW
                                         Ms. ALLEN. Thank you, Chairman Perlmutter. Thank you, also,
                                      Chairwoman Waters, Ranking Member McHenry, and Ranking
                                      Member Luetkemeyer. And thank you, members of the sub-
                                      committee.
                                         I very much appreciate the opportunity to testify at today’s hear-
                                      ing. As Chairman Perlmutter already mentioned, my name is
                                      Hilary Allen, and I am an associate professor at the American Uni-
                                      versity Washington College of Law. I teach classes in corporate law
                                      and financial regulation, and my research focuses on financial sta-
                                      bility regulation.
                                         Prior to entering academia, I spent 7 years working in the finan-
                                      cial services groups of prominent law firms in London, Sydney, and
                                      New York, and in 2010, I worked with the Financial Crisis Inquiry
                                      Commission, which was appointed by Congress to study the causes
                                      of the financial crisis of 2008.
                                         The views I am expressing today are entirely my own. They do
                                      not represent American University or any other institution.
                                         In my testimony today, I would like to highlight three points for
                                      the committee.
                                         First, I will underline the stakes involved in preparing the finan-
                                      cial system for the physical and transitional risks associated with
                                      climate change. The impacts of a financial crisis can be irreversible
                                      and catastrophic, particularly for the most vulnerable members of
                                      society, so financial regulators should take steps to make the finan-
                                      cial system more robust to the climate-related uncertainty that we
                                      face.
                                         Second, I would like to advocate for increased focus on the poten-
                                      tial systemic effects of operational problems arising from extreme
                                      weather events and other environmental changes, because financial
                                      stability regulation often neglects these operational risks.
                                         Finally, I will speak about reforming the Office of Financial Re-
                                      search, known as the OFR.
                                         All of the Federal financial regulatory agencies need to be in-
                                      volved in making this financial system more robust to climate-re-
                                      lated threats, but the OFR can play a unique and crucial part in
                                      that effort if it is rebuilt as an interdisciplinary hub of the different
                                      kinds of expertise needed to assess and respond to these threats.
                                         It has never been good policy to just let financial crises happen
                                      and then clean up afterwards. Even with the Herculean and imagi-
                                      native crisis response efforts that we saw from the Federal Reserve
                                      and other governmental bodies in the wake of the financial crisis
                                      of 2008, the economic fallout of that crisis could not be fully con-
                                      tained. Many of the most vulnerable members of our society still
                                      have not recovered from it.




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                                                                                          7

                                         I therefore urge the committee to take a precautionary approach
                                      to financial stability regulation in general and, in particular, to-
                                      wards climate-related risks.
                                         A precautionary approach requires us to be creative in our think-
                                      ing about risks to financial stability and favors bold, simple re-
                                      sponses where possible.
                                         I have outlined a number of responses in my written statement
                                      that are designed to help manage the uncertainty about the precise
                                      physical and transitional risks we face, including regulatory capital
                                      requirements that require banks to fund themselves with more
                                      common equity to act as a buffer against uncertainty and help pre-
                                      vent financial institution failures and asset fire sales.
                                         One reform that I want to stress for the committee today is the
                                      need for what I call macro-operational regulation, which takes seri-
                                      ously the possible systemic consequences of the steps taken by indi-
                                      vidual financial institutions to manage their own operational risks.
                                         For example, a financial institution that finds part of its physical
                                      infrastructure damaged could shift its operations to alternative in-
                                      frastructure. That would be a rational step by the institution, de-
                                      signed to enable it to keep providing financial services. But if that
                                      alternative infrastructure is overloaded as a result, that may create
                                      problems for other financial institutions that also rely on the alter-
                                      native infrastructure.
                                         Different kinds of experts are needed to help think creatively
                                      about the types of threats that climate change poses for the finan-
                                      cial system. In the case of the operational risk spillovers that I just
                                      mentioned, complex science expertise would be very helpful.
                                         Climate scientists and environmental economists will obviously
                                      be crucial to the effort. Data scientists and software engineers
                                      would also make important contributions.
                                         The Office of Financial Research should be the new home for
                                      these types of interdisciplinary personnel, because consolidating
                                      interdisciplinary expertise in one agency can create virtuous cycles
                                      that make hiring easier and promote collaboration and consistency
                                      in responding to new threats.
                                         In my written testimony, I set out proposals for rebuilding the
                                      OFR as an interdisciplinary expertise hub. Many of these proposals
                                      relate to staffing and to the OFR’s relationship with other financial
                                      regulatory bodies, particularly the Financial Stability Oversight
                                      Council (FSOC).
                                         I urge the committee to pursue these proposals as a matter of ur-
                                      gency in order to ensure that our financial regulatory architecture
                                      is equipped to deal with the challenges of climate change.
                                         Thank you.
                                         [The prepared statement of Professor Allen can be found on page
                                      32 of the appendix.]
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you for your testimony.
                                         Now, I would like to recognize Dr. Rachel Cleetus for 5 minutes
                                      for her testimony.
                                      STATEMENT OF RACHEL CLEETUS, POLICY DIRECTOR, UNION
                                                   OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS
                                       Ms. CLEETUS. Thank you very much, Chairman Perlmutter,
                                      Ranking Member Luetkemeyer, and members of the subcommittee,




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                                      for providing me the opportunity to testify remotely here today on
                                      the systemic risks of climate change. My name is Rachel Cleetus,
                                      and I am the policy director for the climate and energy program
                                      at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
                                         Summer has barely begun and we are already in the midst of a
                                      stunning drought in much of the Western United States. Record-
                                      setting heatwaves are underway, including an unprecedented one
                                      in the Pacific Northwest. The Midwest has been hit by heavy rain
                                      and flash flooding. The wildfire season is underway, another in-
                                      tense one. We are projected to have an above-normal hurricane sea-
                                      son.
                                         Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis con-
                                      tinue to be a threat.
                                         What we are experiencing this summer is part of a very sobering
                                      trend. In addition to steadily rising temperatures, climate change
                                      is also driving accelerating sea level rise and ocean acidification.
                                      Many sectors of the economy are at risk.
                                         Our infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, insurance, real estate,
                                      tourism, and the impact on the health and safety of people, includ-
                                      ing outdoor workers, is very significant, too.
                                         Our nation experienced $22 billion-plus extreme weather and cli-
                                      mate-related disasters last year. Climate-related infrastructure dis-
                                      ruptions are increasing. Our roads, bridges, rail lines, and air trav-
                                      el are all at risk.
                                         The electricity system which underpins our daily lives has re-
                                      peatedly failed. Heat waves put enormous pressure on the power
                                      grid right at a time when we need power for cooling. We get power
                                      outages, as we are seeing in the Northwest right now, which can
                                      trigger cascading effects, including business interruptions and loss
                                      of critical services that depend on electricity.
                                         Meanwhile, heat-trapping emissions that fuel climate change are
                                      still rising. The science is clear: We need to cut emissions by half
                                      in 2030 and get to net zero no later than 2050.
                                         And yet, today our economic and financial systems are not ac-
                                      counting for these risks, nor are they helping drive a rapid shift to
                                      a net-zero economy.
                                         A combination of shortsightedness, inadequate policies, the out-
                                      sized power of fossil fuel companies, and business-as-usual inertia
                                      is getting in the way.
                                         And if we fail to take action now, the potential for severe shocks
                                      to our financial system will grow. And as with previous crises, the
                                      impacts will be especially harsh for those who can least afford it—
                                      low-income households, communities of color.
                                         Instead, we have an opportunity now to ensure that our economy
                                      and financial system are put on a path to be fairer, more climate-
                                      resilient, and compatible with a low-carbon future.
                                         We need a coordinated, comprehensive approach from the na-
                                      tional to the international, the local level, with Congress, financial
                                      regulators, and the Federal Government all playing their part.
                                         We need mandatory risk disclosure in the marketplace to help
                                      correct market failures. Fossil fuel companies and their investors
                                      who bear an outsized responsibility for climate change must face
                                      market pressures to change their business model and lending prac-




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                                      tices. We need transparent, uniform disclosure of market risks
                                      from climate change based on the best available science.
                                         Congress must pass legislation to set up an advisory committee
                                      on climate risk in the FSOC, require climate risk disclosure in the
                                      marketplace, and take steps to prioritize the well-being of
                                      marginalized communities.
                                         Much more is at stake than the fiscal well-being of U.S. busi-
                                      nesses. The public relies on these companies to grow and manage
                                      our savings, investments, pension funds, and energy choices. Our
                                      market rules and financial safeguards must help develop the out-
                                      comes we need to protect our health, welfare, and prosperity, not
                                      simply the profits for the powerful and elite few.
                                         We need a transformative climate strategy that addresses under-
                                      lying systemic challenges, like structural racism and social-eco-
                                      nomic inequities. We have urgent choices before us.
                                         But because it is our actions that are the source of heat-trapping
                                      emissions, here in one of the most powerful economies in the world,
                                      we can also help set the rules of the market. We cannot have a
                                      healthy economy if the planet is on fire and vast areas are under
                                      water.
                                         Thank you for this opportunity to testify today, and for your ef-
                                      forts to protect our financial system from climate risk and to en-
                                      sure that it helps contribute to the climate solutions we so urgently
                                      need.
                                         [The prepared statement of Dr. Cleetus can be found on page 52
                                      of the appendix.]
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you, Dr. Cleetus, for your testi-
                                      mony.
                                         Ms. Rodriguez Valladares, you are now recognized for 5 minutes
                                      to give an oral presentation of your testimony.

                                      STATEMENT OF MAYRA RODRIGUEZ VALLADARES, MANAGING
                                                   PRINCIPAL, MRV ASSOCIATES
                                         Ms. RODRIGUEZ VALLADARES. Chairman Perlmutter, Ranking
                                      Member Luetkemeyer, and distinguished members of the sub-
                                      committee, thank you for the opportunity to appear before you.
                                         I am Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, managing partner of MRV As-
                                      sociates. For over 3 decades, I have worked with bankers and fi-
                                      nancial regulators in over 30 countries on a wide range of risks
                                      that can threaten financial institutions’ safety and soundness.
                                         Unlike the global financial crisis, scientists have been warning
                                      us for decades about the danger of climate change. Through the nu-
                                      merous financial crises I have endured, I have learned that when
                                      someone tells me this time it is going to be different, it is a warn-
                                      ing signal that urgent action is critical now to avoid another pain-
                                      ful crisis.
                                         U.S. global systemically important banks are very exposed to cli-
                                      mate risks. Not only do they provide financial services in States
                                      vulnerable to intensifying climate events, they have operations in
                                      foreign countries such as the UK, Japan, Canada, and Mexico,
                                      which are exposed to physical and transition risks.
                                         Regional, community, and agricultural banks are also exposed to
                                      climate change. In 2019, severe flooding in the Midwest brought




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                                      loan defaults and payment challenges to their highest levels in 20
                                      years.
                                         Banks in areas that serve people of color are also vulnerable to
                                      climate change since many of them are also in areas with a myriad
                                      of environmental, infrastructure, and housing challenges.
                                         I must note that the very significant rise in corporate leverage
                                      in the United States in the last 2 decades means that those compa-
                                      nies are the most likely to default in the event that they are af-
                                      fected by climate change.
                                         Market investors have not priced in climate change risks because
                                      financial institutions and corporations are not required to identify,
                                      measure, control, and monitor their climate-related risks and to
                                      disclose them to the public.
                                         Opacity in the financial system is dangerous to investors and or-
                                      dinary Americans.
                                         Given its membership of leading international standard-setting
                                      bodies, such as the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Com-
                                      mittee on Banking Supervision, U.S. regulators already work on
                                      climate change risk frameworks.
                                         In the U.S., the Financial Stability Oversight Council and its Of-
                                      fice of Financial Research should be given the necessary human,
                                      data, and technological resources so they can analyze how climate
                                      change is impacting the entire financial system and to detect
                                      sources of systemic risk.
                                         Inaction is costly.
                                         FSOC and OFR should focus on non-banks that are exposed to
                                      climate-related risks. They are interconnected to banks, do not
                                      have strong management requirements, and are very opaque.
                                         Under Basel III, Pillar 1, bank regulators can require banks to
                                      model operational risk, which includes natural disasters that can
                                      hurt a bank’s assets, both in the banking and trading portfolios.
                                         Under Pillar 2, banks can incorporate different risks, including
                                      climate change-induced defaults or market volatility, into their In-
                                      ternal Capital Adequacy Assessment Processes to determine eco-
                                      nomic capital levels to sustain unexpected losses.
                                         I respectfully recommend that financial regulators, especially the
                                      Federal Reserve, the OCC, and the FDIC, recommend to them that
                                      they should: one, create climate change stress tests or add climate
                                      change scenarios to existing supervisory exercises, such as the
                                      Comprehensive Capital Analysis Review and Dodd-Frank Stress
                                      Test; two, design specific climate change supervisory guidance for
                                      banks; three, update supervisory bank examination manuals to in-
                                      clude how climate change impacts banks; four, conduct a review of
                                      the human resources to determine if they have enough profes-
                                      sionals with knowledge about climate science, risk data aggrega-
                                      tion, and modeling; five, review if they have robust technological
                                      systems to analyze climate change data and its impact on banks’
                                      risks; and six, address their climate change data gaps.
                                         I also recommend that bank regulators require banks to: one,
                                      conduct a gap analysis to determine what resources they need to
                                      improve risk data aggregation, climate change risk modeling, and
                                      technology; two, incorporate physical and transition risks into their
                                      enterprise-wide risk management frameworks and long-term finan-
                                      cial plans to measure their climate risk exposures; three, include




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                                      in their bank recovery and resolution plans and their comprehen-
                                      sive liquidity assessment reviews how physical and transition risks
                                      impact banks’ funding, cost of borrowing, liquidity, and risk mitiga-
                                      tion ability; and, lastly, disclose to the public climate change model
                                      results, including tail risks, via Basel III’s Pillar 3 disclosures.
                                         I look forward to your questions, and I would be pleased to serve
                                      as a resource to you in the future as you continue to explore how
                                      to reduce the adverse impact of climate change on the safety and
                                      soundness of the American financial system.
                                         Thank you.
                                         [The prepared statement of Ms. Rodriguez Valladares can be
                                      found on page 66 of the appendix.]
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you very much for your testi-
                                      mony.
                                         I now recognize Mr. Rothstein for 5 minutes for his oral testi-
                                      mony.
                                      STATEMENT OF STEVEN ROTHSTEIN, MANAGING DIRECTOR,
                                      CERES ACCELERATOR FOR SUSTAINABLE CAPITAL MARKETS
                                         Mr. ROTHSTEIN. Thank you, Chairman Perlmutter, and distin-
                                      guished Members of Congress. Thank you for the invitation to be
                                      here.
                                         My name is Steven Rothstein, and I am the managing director
                                      of the Ceres Accelerator for Sustainable Capital Markets. Ceres is
                                      a nonprofit organization working with investors and companies to
                                      build sustainable leadership within our firms and drive policy solu-
                                      tions throughout our economy. Our membership represents Fortune
                                      500 companies and investors with over $30 trillion of assets under
                                      management.
                                         Our testimony draws from Ceres reports that we have also sub-
                                      mitted into the record, Mr. Chairman. I am not here to talk about
                                      the systemic risk our climate has to our planet and our people, al-
                                      though it is paramount to the lives of our children and grand-
                                      children.
                                         I am here to highlight the underrecognized risk to the safety and
                                      soundness of our financial institutions due to climate risk and the
                                      risks of the business-as-usual approach that some of the financial
                                      institutions pose on a livable, climate-safe world.
                                         If a banker or a bank regulator suggested that they don’t need
                                      to plan for another pandemic or cyber attack, there would be a cho-
                                      rus of opinions saying they are not meeting their fiduciary respon-
                                      sibility.
                                         Potential exposure to climate risk is bigger and more systemic.
                                      Yet, there are leaders today in banking, insurance, and among fi-
                                      nancial regulators that do not fully account for financial risk.
                                         Even as we are working to overcome the unprecedented pan-
                                      demic and the pain and loss that it brought, we have simulta-
                                      neously had record-breaking fires, hurricanes, and unparalleled cli-
                                      mate-related risks. As our Secretary of State said recently, we are
                                      running out of records to break.
                                         In short, we know more about the climate risk, as the chairman
                                      said in his introductory remarks, than we knew about the mort-
                                      gage finance risk in 2008. But, surprisingly, we are not acting with
                                      the urgency required.




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                                         There are dozens of strong international examples from financial
                                      regulators around the world, and we appreciate the initial steps
                                      from the Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the
                                      SEC. But that is all they are, initial steps. So, we recommend that
                                      regulators take five immediate steps.
                                         One, immediately affirm the systemic nature of climate risk and
                                      its impacts on the financial market. The affirmation can take the
                                      form of a statement of an agency Chair or a report from the agen-
                                      cy.
                                         Two, activate action on prudential supervision, as some of my
                                      colleagues have said. U.S. regulators have an explicit responsibility
                                      to supervise the risks that financial institutions take on. Consistent
                                      with that mandate, financial regulators should integrate climate
                                      change into the prudential supervision of banks, insurance compa-
                                      nies, and other regulated financial institutions.
                                         The Federal Reserve, in particular, should take immediate steps
                                      to assess the climate risk to financial markets and mandate sce-
                                      nario analysis by the banks and the other financial institutions it
                                      supervises.
                                         They should also outline plans for conducting pilot climate stress
                                      tests of its supervised institutions to measure the impact of cli-
                                      mate-related shocks and consider enhancing capital and liquidity
                                      requirements.
                                         In addition, we recommend that the Federal Reserve, the FDIC,
                                      the OCC, and the National Credit Union Administration expand
                                      their examiner training programs and manuals to ensure that staff
                                      fully understand climate risks faced by the financial institutions
                                      they monitor.
                                         Three, support the SEC’s work on mandatory climate disclosure.
                                      We congratulate the SEC for their initial steps and hope they will
                                      be issuing bold rules later this year.
                                         Four, address how climate risks further exacerbate systemic rac-
                                      ism, particularly as reflected in financial institutions. Financial
                                      regulators should develop strategies to address systemic climate
                                      risks and structural racism in an integrated way. The Community
                                      Reinvestment Act is a ripe opportunity to do this.
                                         Five, build capacity for smart decision-making on climate change
                                      by coordinating action with other U.S. and global regulators and by
                                      hiring and training additional staff.
                                         Coordinated action by U.S. regulators at the global, Federal, and
                                      State levels is essential to accelerating this. The FSOC generally,
                                      and the Biden Executive Order that has been referred to, are crit-
                                      ical steps. We appreciate the recent actions of U.S. financial regu-
                                      lators to coordinate with global peers as a start.
                                         To conclude, U.S. financial regulators have a critical role to play
                                      in ensuring the resilience of our economy, weakened by the global
                                      pandemic and systemic racism, and threatened by future climate
                                      shocks. The fundamental safety and soundness of our financial in-
                                      stitutions is relying on them and on each of you.
                                         Thank you again for this opportunity.
                                         [The prepared statement of Mr. Rothstein can be found on page
                                      104 of the appendix.]
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you for your testimony. You hit
                                      that right on 5 minutes, so I appreciate that.




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                                           Dr. Rossi, you are now recognized for 5 minutes.
                                      STATEMENT OF CLIFFORD V. ROSSI, EXECUTIVE-IN-RESI-
                                       DENCE AND PROFESSOR-OF-THE-PRACTICE, ROBERT H.
                                       SMITH SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
                                         Mr. ROSSI. Thank you, Chairman Perlmutter, Ranking Member
                                      Luetkemeyer, and members of the subcommittee. I am Dr. Clifford
                                      Rossi, professor of the practice and executive-in-residence at the
                                      Robert H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland.
                                         The views that I am expressing today are solely my own and do
                                      not represent those of the University of Maryland.
                                         I am here today to inform the subcommittee that imposing cli-
                                      mate risk mandates on regulated depository institutions at this
                                      time would be detrimental to consumers, to the financial services
                                      sector, and to the economy at large.
                                         Let me be clear: Climate change is a real risk that requires a
                                      firm understanding of the current limitations of climate models,
                                      underlying data, how those data do and do not integrate with
                                      standard financial and risk models, and numerous other compo-
                                      nents in order to craft effective solutions to the underlying risk.
                                         I offer a unique perspective on this issue, having worked for
                                      about 23, 25 years, depending on sort of how you calculate those
                                      things, in the financial services industry, first as a regulator during
                                      the S&L crisis, and then at both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—
                                      pre-conservatorship—as well as at one of the largest commercial
                                      banks, the largest savings and loan, and the largest non-bank
                                      mortgage company during my tenure as a C-level risk executive,
                                      and now as a finance and risk professor working on climate risk
                                      issues and banking.
                                         Models in use today for climate scenario analysis are designed to
                                      represent the physics of a complex Earth system well into the fu-
                                      ture, and their output is limited for near-term use by financial in-
                                      stitutions.
                                         As I have outlined in my written testimony, the models upon
                                      which urgent demands for a public policy response are based are
                                      subject to significant model risk. Model risk can be defined as the
                                      risk associated with errors in data, methods, or assumptions used
                                      to generate output from analytical models used for decision-mak-
                                      ing.
                                         Forcing financial institutions and their regulators toward expan-
                                      sive climate risk regulation based on effects that are not well-un-
                                      derstood presents more risk to the financial system than a staged
                                      and methodical approach.
                                         Now, I applaud the intent of the Biden Administration, through
                                      their Executive Order, to assess climate-related financial risks and
                                      data. However, I would caution policymakers and regulators from
                                      imposing measures on regulated depositories based on the state of
                                      current climate analytics for the following reasons.
                                         First, the output from climate and associated integrated assess-
                                      ment models, or IAMs, are not close to being ready for use in bank
                                      financial and risk analytics such as bank stress test modeling, and
                                      suffer from the supposed, ‘‘square peg in the round hole’’ syndrome.
                                         The empirical linkages between long-term climate effects and
                                      short- to intermediate-term financial and risk factors are not suffi-




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                                      ciently established currently to properly assess physical or transi-
                                      tion risk impacts to the banking system from climate change.
                                         Second, both the climate and integrated assessment models upon
                                      which scenarios such as those proposed by the Network for Green-
                                      ing the Financial System (NGFS) are based are subject to consider-
                                      able empirical error due to the underlying complexity of these mod-
                                      els on interactions that are not fully understood in the scientific
                                      and financial research communities.
                                         Now, why is this important? Requiring banks to make hard
                                      money strategic decisions on lending, capital allocation, pricing,
                                      and other activities that have long-term consequences for con-
                                      sumers, the financial system, and economic growth based on mod-
                                      els with a high degree of uncertainty is not at all consistent with
                                      prudent model risk management practices.
                                         Third, it is well-established in the psychology and economics lit-
                                      erature that decision-making is affected by a number of cognitive
                                      biases. One of these is what I refer to as model or shiny object bias.
                                         Model bias occurs when decision-makers embrace the results
                                      from highly-sophisticated quantitative models based on perceptions
                                      that the apparent analytical rigor in those models necessarily
                                      translates into accurate and reliable outputs.
                                         There is widespread shiny object bias in the use of climate and
                                      integrated assessment models today among policymakers world-
                                      wide. This poses serious concerns regarding the use of these models
                                      for anything other than research applications at this time, as de-
                                      scribed earlier. Placing bets on financial markets on such models
                                      invites a host of long-term unintended consequences on the finan-
                                      cial system.
                                         Climate change is a real risk that banks and other financial in-
                                      stitutions should actively incorporate in with their existing risk
                                      management processes. However, such firms must take measured
                                      steps to understand these risks and not be forced into conducting
                                      analyses for which the models and outputs are not well-understood
                                      as they relate to financial services.
                                         Banks should instead focus attention on bolstering their risk
                                      awareness to climate change, starting with enhancing their risk
                                      governance process and controls, data, and analytics.
                                         Quantifying with a reasonable degree of confidence the impacts
                                      of physical and transition risk from climate change will require sig-
                                      nificant effort, time, and a true interdisciplinary approach between
                                      climate scientists and the very people who are actually running fi-
                                      nancial and risk management at these organizations and gathering
                                      additional data and modifying existing models.
                                         This work should commence, and only when the results have
                                      been deemed to conform to regulatory model risk standards should
                                      consideration of the disclosure and use in financial decision-making
                                      be permitted.
                                         Thank you for your time, and the invitation to testify on this im-
                                      portant matter, and I look forward to answering your questions.
                                         [The prepared statement of Dr. Rossi can be found on page 95
                                      of the appendix.]
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you, Dr. Rossi.
                                         And thank you to all of the panelists. You were all right on time
                                      or a little early. So, I appreciate that.




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                                         I will now recognize myself for 5 minutes for questions. And we
                                      will get through as many of the Members as we can before we have
                                      to break for votes. We might be lucky and get through all of us.
                                      We will see.
                                         Dr. Rossi, I want to just start with where you have left off. And
                                      I think we would agree. A number of us on this committee are also
                                      on the Science Committee, and yesterday we had a hearing on the
                                      science of wildfires or wildfire predictions, mitigation, and a whole
                                      variety of things. And I don’t think we would disagree with you
                                      that we don’t have all of the science we would like to predict
                                      wildfires.
                                         In Colorado, we had our worst wildfire season ever last year, and
                                      most of the Northwest is frying right now. But, in my opinion, that
                                      is not a reason to not begin to put precautions in place.
                                         So, Dr. Cleetus, Colorado, as I just said, had its worst wildfire
                                      season on record. The three largest wildfires in our State’s history
                                      occurred in 2020, torching over 540,000 acres.
                                         Climate change is now forcing Colorado and many other States
                                      to prepare for larger and more destructive wildfire seasons. In fact,
                                      the director of the Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control
                                      just remarked, ‘‘We are having fire years, not fire seasons any-
                                      more.’’
                                         In the West, we have wildfires. The Gulf has hurricanes. There
                                      is increased flooding in the South and the Midwest. And these
                                      changes are having a significant impact. The smoke that comes
                                      into the Denver area from the wildfires either in Colorado or the
                                      West is affecting our tourist industry and our housing industry.
                                         As the severity and frequency of extreme weather events con-
                                      tinues to rise, how will the housing market react? And what does
                                      it mean for homeowners in climate-sensitive areas?
                                         Ms. CLEETUS. Yes, as you are pointing out, the reality is that
                                      this is not some distant future. These climate impacts are here and
                                      now. And it is very clear from the science that hotter, dryer condi-
                                      tions in the West are contributing to these longer, more intense fire
                                      seasons. It is undeniable. And, unfortunately, the uncertainty, to
                                      the extent it exists, seems to be breaking in the wrong direction.
                                         This is why the precautionary principle that the other panelists
                                      highlighted is so important. We are talking about managing risks;
                                      we cannot avoid them completely.
                                         And what we are starting to see is the insurance market reflect-
                                      ing this risk with wildfires, where we have seen insurers drop pol-
                                      icyholders, or try to raise rates. State regulators have had to step
                                      in with stop-gap measures. We have thousands of homes at risk
                                      right now in the West, millions, actually, if you look across all of
                                      the States in the American West. And this risk is growing, both be-
                                      cause of climate change and also our development patterns and
                                      how we manage our forests.
                                         So, we have to act on all fronts to make sure that we contain this
                                      risk. Otherwise, both the economic consequences, as well as the
                                      public health and human toll, will rise every year, unfortunately.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you for your answer.
                                         Several of us on this committee—I was a bankruptcy lawyer rep-
                                      resenting financial institutions for many years, and we have indi-
                                      viduals who were bankers or bank regulators on this committee.




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                                      And the failure of Pacific Gas and Electric, the failure of many oil
                                      and gas companies and their bankruptcies, make me concerned
                                      about the impact on the financial industry.
                                         So, Ms. Rodriguez Valladares, 2 years ago this subcommittee
                                      held a hearing about how leveraged lending may pose a threat to
                                      financial stability. As you know, leveraged loans are characterized
                                      as corporate debt extended to highly-indebted non-financial busi-
                                      nesses.
                                         How does leveraged lending interact with climate risk? And what
                                      types of institutions are particularly exposed?
                                         Ms. RODRIGUEZ VALLADARES. This is really a very good point that
                                      you make. I have published 40-some-odd articles about leveraged
                                      lending and collateralized loan obligations, and we should defi-
                                      nitely be very concerned, because American companies are more le-
                                      veraged than they ever have been historically, either in aggregate
                                      amounts or when you see it as an equivalent percent of gross do-
                                      mestic product (GDP).
                                         And there are incredible interconnections because a lot of these
                                      companies, especially in the energy sector, which presently is ex-
                                      hibiting a very, very high default probability, are incredibly vulner-
                                      able to extreme climate events.
                                         And there is a lot of opacity in leveraged lending and
                                      collateralized loan obligations, and there are a lot of interconnec-
                                      tions between the non-banks such as hedge funds and private eq-
                                      uity, home offices, and other types of financial institutions of that
                                      nature. They are very interconnected to banks. They hold a lot of
                                      these leveraged loans and a lot of these securitizations.
                                         We definitely need to be very, very mindful about their prob-
                                      ability of default, and especially those companies that are immi-
                                      nently affected either by the physical or the transition risks.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you very much for your response.
                                         My time has expired. I now recognize the ranking member of the
                                      subcommittee, the gentleman from Missouri, Mr. Luetkemeyer, for
                                      5 minutes.
                                         Mr. LUETKEMEYER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
                                         Mr. Rossi, in your testimony you have a graph in there, ‘‘Long-
                                      Term Changes in the Earth System.’’ And the first graph talks
                                      about land surface temperatures, and it starts out at 1850.
                                         And it is interesting, because that seems to be where most people
                                      who want to talk about climate change want to start, is 1850. It
                                      is interesting, because that is actually the trough of the cold trend
                                      that started at that point—or ended at that point. If you actually
                                      take the chart and you go back 1,000 or 2,000 years, you see this
                                      wave effect.
                                         And so what I am saying is, if you take that chart and go in the
                                      other direction, which is what we are trying to talk about today,
                                      actually within the next probably 25 to 50 years, you are going to
                                      see the wave start going in the other direction.
                                         And we are talking here today about modeling. If you are in the
                                      banking business and you are trying to model what your risks are
                                      with regard to climate change, if you go back 5 years or 50 years,
                                      it is one thing, and if you look forward 5 years or 50 years based
                                      on what you saw in the past, that is really—you need a crystal ball
                                      to look at all of the things that have happened in our economy and




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                                      the world in the last 5 years or 50 years. And then try and project
                                      that to the next 5 years or 50 years and look at—and you throw
                                      in there the technology and things like that.
                                         How do you, Dr. Rossi, analyze this when you look at the fact
                                      that this wave could actually go in the other direction? And we are
                                      looking at trying to model this so we actually get an assessment
                                      of true risk. How can you do that? You just got done talking about
                                      how you didn’t think that could actually work. Could you elaborate
                                      on that a little bit? Am I wrong in my assessments here?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. No. And as someone who actually either developed or
                                      oversaw the development of such models in the past, either loan
                                      loss reserving models or stress test models, I can tell you for sure
                                      that this is probably one of the most difficult, if not the most dif-
                                      ficult exercise that banks will face in estimating or assessing risk
                                      in their portfolios.
                                         As for all the reasons that you just described, in the case of cred-
                                      it risk or market liquidity or these other risks that are out there,
                                      we can get our arms around that pretty readily because we have
                                      that data, we have that historical time series, that is, to be able
                                      to kind of ingest that into our financial and risk models and project
                                      out how much capital we will have.
                                         When we are talking about taking physical outputs, such as how
                                      many gigatons of greenhouse gases are spewed out, and trying to
                                      translate that into macroeconomic factors that then translate in
                                      turn to how much risk is on our lending or investment portfolios,
                                      that is what we are talking about as being extraordinarily difficult
                                      to do.
                                         And keep in mind that when we do that, we are today really only
                                      going out, as was said earlier, 9 quarters forward on our stress
                                      test, so trying to go out 5 years or even 10 years, or more than that
                                      creates an enormous amount of uncertainty, such that if we are
                                      trying to estimate the tail of the distribution, as other witnesses
                                      have talked about, the tail of that distribution is so noisy, it would
                                      be very, very difficult to quantify that with any degree of reli-
                                      ability.
                                         And personally, as someone, as a former CRO, signing a sub-at-
                                      testation, I would not today, given where the state of climate mod-
                                      els are today, sign any sub-attestations related to climate risk.
                                         Mr. LUETKEMEYER. If you take that one step further then, the
                                      concern that we need to be thinking about here is if you destroy
                                      the fossil fuels industry based on this graph showing continued
                                      warming, and all of a sudden in a few years it turns the other way,
                                      we have destroyed an industry that we definitely need and are
                                      going to need in the long term for many different reasons.
                                         It would seem to me that we need to be very careful how we go
                                      into this modeling situation. Would you agree with that?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. I would agree with that. And I want to be clear here.
                                      I am not saying not to do anything—I am not saying that. I am
                                      saying that we need to start in a very methodical fashion. There
                                      are things that we can do today that aren’t going—leapfrogging to,
                                      let’s adopt what is in these IAMs and climate models today and
                                      just start to implement stress tests and—
                                         Mr. LUETKEMEYER. Mr. Rossi, let me quickly interject here.




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                                         You talked about some things we could do. Would you identify
                                      things that financial institutions or regulators, what significant
                                      data things they can put together today to actually make it work?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. Yes, absolutely. First and foremost—and I am a sim-
                                      ple-minded guy when it comes to these things—is to do what you
                                      understand right now.
                                         What banks can understand right now are the positions on their
                                      portfolios that are exposed to different climate events. They can ac-
                                      tually engage with vendors that are out there that can supply this
                                      information that can help them assess what their exposure is to
                                      wildfire risk or drought or flooding, and they can size that up in
                                      terms of the probability of those outcomes, as well as the impact
                                      or the severity of those outcomes. They can do that today.
                                         The other thing that they can do is to start to do what I have
                                      done in an academic research paper that will be published later
                                      this year, to actually try to tie, to determine these empirical link-
                                      ages between physical outputs, let’s just say hurricane impacts, se-
                                      verity and frequency of hurricanes, to, let’s say, mortgage default.
                                      Trying to establish those empirical linkages will be extraordinarily
                                      important to actually getting a better handle on estimating what
                                      this climate risk looks like on these bank portfolios.
                                         Mr. LUETKEMEYER. Thank you for your response. I am out of
                                      time. Thank you, Dr. Rossi.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you, Dr. Rossi, and Mr. Luetke-
                                      meyer.
                                         The Chair will now recognize Mr. Foster, who is the only physi-
                                      cist in Congress. But apparently, he is going to yield to Mr. Casten,
                                      an engineer.
                                         Mr. FOSTER. Thank you. And I yield to Mr. Casten.
                                         Mr. CASTEN. Thank you, Mr. Physicist.
                                         I truly hope we are not still arguing about whether climate
                                      change is real. My goodness, the science is so settled. We know the
                                      last time CO2 was this high. Sea levels were 50 feet higher. Let’s
                                      move on.
                                         If you don’t believe the scientists, listen to Fed Governor Lael
                                      Brainard, who said in January that the science is settled but the
                                      impact on our financial sector is highly uncertain, that we should
                                      be concerned about the impact of rapid repricing events. I am par-
                                      tially misquoting that.
                                         We had Jamie Dimon in a couple of weeks ago, and he said that
                                      JPMorgan is not reducing their fossil fuel exposure. And I said,
                                      ‘‘Okay, have you changed your senior debt, sub debt equity level?’’
                                      He said, ‘‘No, not yet.’’ And I said, ‘‘Can I assume that you will once
                                      you see things coming?’’ And he said, ‘‘Oh, absolutely.’’
                                         So my first question for you, Mr. Rothstein, is, we know once
                                      these changes come, the sophisticated players will see it coming
                                      first and we will have capital movement in the system.
                                         Can you explain to us the difference between stress testing the
                                      banks and scenario modeling the system, and how you think we
                                      should be balancing those two to make sure that our system is ro-
                                      bust and continues to be robust?
                                         Mr. ROTHSTEIN. Thank you, Congressman. And thanks for all of
                                      your leadership on this issue.




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                                         We have a very diverse system with thousands of banks, and
                                      while the biggest banks, obviously, are responsible for the loans,
                                      most people operate with small banks. They have to operate in a
                                      very concentrated area. They are more at risk for physical risk be-
                                      cause they tend to loan within a 5- to 10-mile area.
                                         We did an analysis of the largest 20 banks and looked at their
                                      syndicated loan portfolio, just to use the same methodology that
                                      the European Central Bank did, and for that we identified over
                                      half-a-trillion dollars of exposure.
                                         What we need to do is use every tool. Climate change is an all-
                                      of-government initiative, it is an all-of-society initiative. We have
                                      to do stress tests on individual bank portfolios and then we have
                                      to look at scenario analysis for the whole system, both small and
                                      large.
                                         Mr. CASTEN. I want to follow up, because your point about small
                                      banks intrigues me, because there is the physical risk that at least
                                      we think we understand—there are lots of ripple effects—but then
                                      there is the transitional risk that shifting wealth from energy pro-
                                      ducers to energy consumers is good for Americans, but it creates
                                      our political tension. And I find myself thinking, is the First Bank
                                      of Frankfort, Kentucky, going to be okay?
                                         Does this feel more like the S&L crisis than the 2008 crisis to
                                      you, as we think about how diverse the exposure is going to be in
                                      the system?
                                         Mr. ROTHSTEIN. I believe, Congressman, that the exposure is
                                      even broader and more systemic than either of those.
                                         For a small bank, they could be affected on physical risk if they
                                      are in an area with fires, floods, or tornadoes. But they also could
                                      be if they are in an area that is an energy-producing community
                                      and the jobs decline in that sense.
                                         Last year, the oil companies wrote off $145 billion of assets in
                                      the first 3 quarters. That is banks, insurance companies, and inves-
                                      tors that are somehow dealing with that, so this is a deeper and
                                      wider potential area of exposure than any of those.
                                         Mr. CASTEN. As I pointed out recently, ExxonMobil didn’t write
                                      off all of that money because they were woke.
                                         I want to shift, if I could, with the little time I have left, to Ms.
                                      Rodriguez Valladares.
                                         I really appreciated your comments. I was in the energy industry
                                      for 20 years before I got here, and we used to joke that you could
                                      always tell that there was a downturn coming in the energy sector
                                      because the big banks started creating special purpose energy op-
                                      portunities funds for—that was the thing they were doing to move
                                      assets into non-Dodd-Frank-compliant vehicles.
                                         Assuming that we pass this legislation, including my bills that
                                      are noticed in this markup, and the Biden White House moves, we
                                      are probably 2 years away, realistically, from getting all of these
                                      changes implemented.
                                         I don’t know what you think of my own metric, but are there
                                      metrics you think we should be watching in the financial system
                                      that will be a sign that the sophisticated players are starting to off-
                                      load risk onto other players?
                                         What are the red lights you are watching that you think we
                                      should be paying attention to in these next few years?




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                                         Ms. RODRIGUEZ VALLADARES. One thing, of course, is to watch
                                      whether banks are increasingly selling their loans that are exposed
                                      to climate change. Are they selling their commercial real estate
                                      loans, ag loans, energy loans to special purpose vehicles? Then that
                                      tells you that they are trying to get rid of that risk because it
                                      weighs on their capital and their leverage requirements.
                                         I think also watching the number of loans that they underwrite
                                      to these sectors that are so sensitive to climate change is also an-
                                      other important signal.
                                         But it is not just about banks’ exposure to these kinds of compa-
                                      nies from the lending side. Let’s not forget that banks also are in
                                      financial derivatives and repos with these different kinds of compa-
                                      nies, to also see whether that is lessening. That is another signal
                                      that they feel that this is of concern.
                                         I am a little concerned about some of the comments that I am
                                      hearing that we have no data to be measuring climate change risk
                                      and how it can affect default probabilities or how it can affect mar-
                                      ket volatility, because if there is one thing Americans are known
                                      for, it is for data.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. I am going to interrupt you, and some-
                                      body else will let you finish your answer to that question. But
                                      thank you very much for your testimony.
                                         And I thank the gentleman for his time.
                                         I now recognize the gentleman from Oklahoma, who is also the
                                      ranking member on the House Science Committee, Mr. Lucas.
                                         Mr. LUCAS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
                                         Today’s hearing is an opportunity to have a constructive dialogue
                                      on the issue of climate risk in the financial system.
                                         We know that the climate is changing and that global industrial
                                      activity has played a role in this. Further, I believe my friends on
                                      the other side of the aisle would agree that Congress and the regu-
                                      lators still have much to learn about the implications of climate
                                      change in the financial system. However, the argument that we are
                                      in a race against a ticking climate Doomsday Clock is counter-
                                      productive to achieving real progress on this issue.
                                         The United States has already made progress in the science and
                                      innovation needed for cleaner energy production. Weaponizing the
                                      financial regulators to drive capital away from fossil fuels, still the
                                      most reliable and essential form of energy in the United States,
                                      would have dire consequences for the economy and U.S. competi-
                                      tiveness abroad.
                                         Instead, we need a more thoughtful approach based on the cur-
                                      rent state of climate risk assessment tools.
                                         Dr. Rossi, the electric power grid is absolutely essential to the
                                      U.S. economy, generating the energy needed for businesses and
                                      families across the country. In 2020, fossil fuels were the largest
                                      source of U.S. electricity generation, at about 60 percent. Nuclear
                                      energy was the source of roughly 20 percent.
                                         So, Dr. Rossi, could you speak to the potential consequences to
                                      the U.S. economy if we see a rapid government-driven disinvest-
                                      ment away from fossil fuels and nuclear energy?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. Yes. In the near-term, we could see several things.
                                         First of all, let me give you some perspective. These are num-
                                      bers—I have been looking at Citigroup recently, and a little while




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                                      ago, they released their climate financial disclosure for this year,
                                      and it was very interesting. One of the things that they flagged
                                      was their oil and gas exposure of something in the order of 50-plus
                                      billion dollars or so, pretty sizeable, but only about 6 or 7 percent
                                      of their overall exposure.
                                         Why that is important is because imagine now if you have mul-
                                      tiple banks, just like what happened during the liquidity coverage
                                      ratio implementation several years back when banks were looking
                                      at trying to measure how much liquidity they had on their balance
                                      sheet from a regulatory requirement standpoint and found that
                                      they were—some of the largest banks were certainly not in compli-
                                      ance.
                                         And what would they do? They would have to then rotate out of
                                      some of their lesser high-quality assets into higher-quality assets.
                                      They would have to sell mortgage-backed securities in order to try
                                      and comply by buying U.S. Treasuries.
                                         In this case, divesting from oil and gas investments would actu-
                                      ally have a further amplifying effect, downward movement effect,
                                      that is, for some time period, which would actually cause the prices
                                      of oil and gas to go down, those securities, and in addition would—
                                      temporarily anyway—impose some harm to the balance sheets of
                                      these banks.
                                         Now, I am not saying it is crushing by any sense. They are well-
                                      capitalized. So, that is not going to be an issue.
                                         But from a knock-on effect standpoint, we are talking about im-
                                      pacts associated with lack of investment if banks aren’t lending
                                      again to oil and gas companies, their inability to do the kind of ex-
                                      ploration that is needed to continue to provide us with the supply
                                      necessary to have heating and having to fuel our cars, and that
                                      sort of thing.
                                         So, it would have adjacent effects on increasing prices to con-
                                      sumers for things like utility bills, prices at the gas pump, et
                                      cetera, and so certainly would have adverse consequences in the
                                      near-term for that.
                                         Mr. LUCAS. Continuing with you, Dr. Rossi, you explained in
                                      your written testimony how climate credit default swaps could be
                                      utilized as a risk-mitigation tool for climate-related events. Could
                                      you discuss further how this financial tool could be used?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. Sure. The idea here is simply—and I think one of the
                                      other witnesses mentioned the use of financial derivatives by finan-
                                      cial institutions. And during the financial crisis, I think Warren
                                      Buffet famously said something to the effect of, these were weapons
                                      of financial mass destruction.
                                         Actually, derivatives are an important risk-mitigation tool that
                                      are used extensively in the industry for things like transferring
                                      credit risk to private investors, such as what is going on with the
                                      Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and
                                      Freddie Mac, in transferring credit risk off their balance sheets and
                                      onto other private investors.
                                         In the case we are talking about here, we have had for many
                                      years weather derivatives, rainfall derivatives, and we have had
                                      temperature derivatives that have not really kind of taken off
                                      much in the industry.




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                                         But as climate change accelerates and continues to evolve, we
                                      need to think about developing credit- or climate-related derivative
                                      tools that could remove that risk off of these balance sheets.
                                         You could imagine that both Fannie and Freddie, for example,
                                      that are engaged heavily in credit risk transfer of their securities
                                      to—or of their mortgage losses, that is—are exposed increasingly,
                                      potentially, to more hurricanes and flooding events if and when
                                      that occurs from climate change.
                                         Being able to transfer that off directly by way of what is called
                                      a climate derivative instrument, just like a credit default swap
                                      (CDS), where there is a buyer and a seller in that market for that,
                                      a bank or a GSE could, for that matter, buy protection from a sell-
                                      er on the other side, and that is how that climate derivative could
                                      actually function.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you, Dr. Rossi.
                                         Mr. LUCAS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. The gentleman’s time has expired.
                                         Mr. Vargas, the gentleman from California, is now recognized for
                                      5 minutes.
                                         Mr. VARGAS. Mr. Chairman, thank you very much for holding
                                      this hearing.
                                         I want to thank all of the witnesses for being here today. I found
                                      this very informative.
                                         Dr. Rossi, have you ever seen hearings like this before with Con-
                                      gress, when you have witnesses testifying?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. I have actually testified twice before, yes.
                                         Mr. VARGAS. The way I think it usually works is this way. You
                                      have one side, it doesn’t matter, but one side will say something,
                                      and then, if they are in the Majority, they will have two or three
                                      witnesses, and then the last witness will say just the opposite.
                                         It is sort of analogous to the issue: Do cigarettes cause cancer?
                                      Yes, they do, and they destroy your lungs. And the next one: Oh,
                                      yes, they cause cancer, yes, they do. And then the last guy always
                                      says: No, they are healthy. They keep you thin and fit.
                                         But in this case, I think that almost everyone agrees that climate
                                      change is real.
                                         Now, I have been arguing this point for decades, and I have had
                                      a hard time with some of my colleagues on the other side accepting
                                      it. And I think you said it until I heard you say, from some of the
                                      examples given by my friends on the other side, well, this kind of
                                      happens in history, you kind of go one way and then the other way.
                                         Do you think that climate change today, a large part of that is
                                      because of human actions and what we do?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. I do. And that is based on the fact that I work on a
                                      fairly regular basis with climate scientists now at the University
                                      of Maryland and I have seen the data. I am not a climate naysayer.
                                      And I don’t know that folks on the other side, of your side, are ei-
                                      ther.
                                         I think what we are trying to figure out, though, is how best to
                                      move the ball along in a way that doesn’t destroy the economy in
                                      the short term, while making sure that we have what we need to
                                      protect everybody from climate change.
                                         Mr. VARGAS. I have to tell you, I think that is a big step forward,
                                      honestly. I think that is a big step forward, just saying that the




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                                      science is settled. Because, again, I hear some of my friends on the
                                      other side say, well, wait a minute, but it does this all the time,
                                      and we can’t really do much about it, it will destroy our economy,
                                      it will destroy our world if we try to do anything about our actions.
                                         You don’t agree with that?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. I would say that there are long-term climatological ef-
                                      fects that have occurred throughout thousands of years, and that
                                      there is no dispute. I also don’t think that there is any dispute that
                                      there are human-based changes that have occurred over the last
                                      150 or so years based on the data that I have seen.
                                         At the same time, we do need to take care about how we move
                                      forward, because the models underlying that have significant
                                      issues. I don’t think we are debating the climate change; we are de-
                                      bating how we can best implement them into financial models.
                                         Mr. VARGAS. I think I understood your testimony well, and you
                                      said you have the shiny models and you chase the shiny thing. You
                                      find out the shiny thing is going to hurt you because it is not mod-
                                      eling it right, and you can do real damage to the economy and
                                      these large companies and other companies. I think I understood
                                      that.
                                         And I appreciate your testimony, I really do. I think it is a huge
                                      step forward.
                                         Dr. Cleetus, you said that back in 2020, the nation experienced
                                      nearly 59,000 wildfires, which burned approximately 10 million
                                      acres. About 40 percent of that was in California, and CAL FIRE
                                      now says that 3 million homes are at risk in California, so much
                                      that, in fact, we have to do something.
                                         What can we do? I have a bill that passed out of here with others
                                      about at least disclosures, at least disclosing this information.
                                      Don’t you think that is a good idea, at least doing that?
                                         Ms. CLEETUS. I think this is the main problem here. We have a
                                      real information asymmetry going on in the financial sector.
                                         Believe me, there are sophisticated actors in the financial sector
                                      who have proprietary data sets. They are moving their assets
                                      around. It is the ordinary public that is being left exposed, the tax-
                                      payer that is being left exposed.
                                         We have done some research just using publicly-available data
                                      from NOAA, tide gauge data, looking at sea level rise and the risk
                                      to coastal property.
                                         What we found was that over 300,000 homes and commercial
                                      properties with a collective market value of $136 billion today are
                                      at risk just by 2045. That is within the lifetime of a mortgage
                                      issued today. There is someone who is going to be left holding the
                                      bag when those houses start to flood.
                                         Mr. VARGAS. I want to interrupt you just for a second to give Ms.
                                      Mayra Rodriguez Valladares an opportunity to tell us about that
                                      data you were talking about.
                                         I have 23 seconds. Go ahead.
                                         Ms. RODRIGUEZ VALLADARES. We have a lot of data in the United
                                      States, both from scientists, so we have just hundreds of years of
                                      scientific data that can be used, and we also have a lot of different
                                      kinds of probability of default data. We have incredible profes-
                                      sionals in quantitative fields both in and outside of financial insti-
                                      tutions.




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                                         There is a lot there that we can be doing to model climate change
                                      risks. And models are dynamic. We should be working on that al-
                                      ready, and not wait until it is too late.
                                         Mr. VARGAS. Thank you. My time has expired.
                                         Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you, Mr. Vargas.
                                         Votes have been called, but I think we can get through the ques-
                                      tions of Mr. Posey, Mr. Lawson, Mr. Barr, and Mr. Kustoff. So,
                                      those of you who aren’t going to be asking questions can go vote,
                                      if you choose.
                                         I would now like to recognize the gentleman from Florida, Mr.
                                      Posey, for 5 minutes of questioning.
                                         Mr. POSEY. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.
                                         Dr. Rossi, we are here today to explore an expansive role of the
                                      government in our economy to reduce systemic financial risk. His-
                                      tory suggests that government has repeatedly missed the mark on
                                      ensuring such financial stability.
                                         What assurances do we have that government can and will do
                                      better than the private sector and individuals in assessing and re-
                                      sponding to potential financial risks posed by climate change?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. If what you are asking is about whether or not we can
                                      regulate climate change by way of financial institutions, I think
                                      that is a tricky problem to address, because on the one hand, as
                                      we were talking about earlier, forcing divestment, for example, or
                                      some variation of that from financial institutions out of oil and gas
                                      would very much have a negative impact.
                                         And so, from a safety and soundness standpoint, when we think
                                      about what the role of those safety and soundness regulators are,
                                      they are there to ensure that the long-term viability of those finan-
                                      cial institutions is, in fact, intact.
                                         Forcing them to implement some sort of changes in the way in
                                      which they are balance-sheeting certain asset types is certainly not
                                      consistent with the way in which our economy or our financial sys-
                                      tem has gone in the past.
                                         That is an issue that I see associated with that.
                                         Mr. POSEY. Thank you.
                                         To follow up on that, Dr. Rossi, we have in recent history faced
                                      some pretty large shocks. I recall the large oil price shocks from
                                      OPEC that plagued us for years before we attained our recent en-
                                      ergy independence.
                                         Looking over our shoulder literally right now at COVID-19,
                                      should we really start selecting out the risks of the day, like cli-
                                      mate change, and build an entire new regulatory apparatus around
                                      them?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. Here’s the thing. Climate risk, depending on whom
                                      you talk to, is a fairly long-tailed risk. It is not one you could say,
                                      okay, today we had 115-degree temperatures in Portland and Se-
                                      attle. There is a difference between weather and climate. So, those
                                      things might, in fact, turn out to be predictive of longer-term cli-
                                      matological changes.
                                         But what I will say from a risk-management standpoint is, from
                                      a banking perspective, there are risks that we—financial risks,
                                      market, credit, liquidity risks that we need to be managing, and
                                      banks do manage those very effectively today, credit risk. And then




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                                      the nonfinancial risk, in which I would include operational risk,
                                      those actually are things that also have to be addressed.
                                         Mr. POSEY. People like to talk about risk, and there is a ref-
                                      erence to the risk that government climate regulations might pose
                                      in the Chair’s memo for this hearing.
                                         I recall that Milton Friedman said, ‘‘The Great Depression, like
                                      most other periods of severe unemployment, was produced by gov-
                                      ernment mismanagement rather than by any inherent instability of
                                      the private economy.’’
                                         Isn’t there a rather large risk about regulators who get it wrong
                                      on climate risks like they did in mismanaging the money supply in
                                      the Great Depression? And should we—
                                         Mr. ROSSI. Well—
                                         Mr. POSEY. Go ahead.
                                         Mr. ROSSI. I’m sorry. Absolutely. I do think that there is exactly
                                      that type of risk until we are armed with the information that
                                      would give us the degree of reliability that we have those risks un-
                                      derstood.
                                         And all of the risks that I just mentioned earlier, the financial
                                      risk, the nonfinancial risk that banks are on point to manage today
                                      in their day-to-day operations, there is a wealth of historical infor-
                                      mation from which they can draw upon to be able to make those
                                      assessments.
                                         I will say that the one that they have the most difficulty with
                                      is the risk associated with operational risk, because we just don’t
                                      have that type of data there.
                                         And if we don’t have the right type of data there, and we have
                                      been dealing with operational risks for many, many years, imagine
                                      the issues that we have associated with trying to get our arms
                                      around and quantify climate risk impacts from a physical and tran-
                                      sition risk standpoint.
                                         That is extraordinarily difficult. And anybody who will tell you
                                      that the data exists for banks to be able to make very precise esti-
                                      mates and make hard money decisions on that, I am just not a
                                      buyer on that.
                                         Mr. POSEY. Okay. Thank you very much, Dr. Rossi.
                                         I see my time is about to expire. And so, Mr. Chairman, I yield
                                      back.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you, Mr. Posey.
                                         I now recognize another gentleman from Florida, Mr. Lawson, for
                                      5 minutes.
                                         Mr. LAWSON. I would just like to say to my colleague, Mr. Posey,
                                      that we worked so hard, because of natural disasters in Florida, on
                                      citizens establishing a government-run insurance program to make
                                      insurance available.
                                         And this is to everyone. The effects of climate change, as seen
                                      year after year, are strong, and more frequently, natural disasters
                                      are destroying homes and businesses at record-breaking rates.
                                         In 2018, Hurricane Michael hit the Florida Panhandle where I
                                      am, causing approximately $25 billion in damage and devastating
                                      our local community. Only a few months after Michael hit, we saw
                                      property insurance rates increase, leaving some Florida home-
                                      owners unable to find affordable policies.




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                                         What steps should Congress ensure be taken to address these
                                      issues, because they come every time? And we were devastated in
                                      Florida after Andrew, and even Michael, and it is just never going
                                      to stop. But we have to do something here in Congress to make
                                      things happen.
                                         This question is posed to everyone: What do you think we should
                                      be doing in Congress?
                                         Ms. CLEETUS. If I could jump in, I think that there are two really
                                      important things going on here. One is that we are seeing in a sys-
                                      temic way these risks rising over time, as you pointed out. And the
                                      other is that we have many, many people, low-income folks, fixed-
                                      income folks, who are being really harshly punished by the finan-
                                      cial consequences of these disasters.
                                         In terms of insurance, we need to make sure that more people
                                      are carrying insurance in the first place. It needs to be more widely
                                      available, and more affordable. But at the same time, we need to
                                      recognize that some of these risks over time are going to become
                                      inherently uninsurable in some of the highest-risk places.
                                         So, we have to create other pathways out of risk for people.
                                      There are so many, many people on the front lines of this risk. In
                                      the State of Florida, for example, we have to create pathways out
                                      of risk, because right now it is not just having financial con-
                                      sequences, but taking a real toll on people’s lives and their well-
                                      being.
                                         Mr. LAWSON. I have a little bit of a follow-up. Many residents
                                      quickly found out, as you stated earlier, that their policy didn’t
                                      cover the damage caused by rising waters. Climate risk is not ade-
                                      quately priced in the housing market. [Inaudible] Found that cur-
                                      rent home prices, mortgage interest rates, and guaranteed fees in
                                      the secondary mortgage market did not make much sense either.
                                         There are a lot of concerns about rising water playing a role in
                                      property values. What should Congress, the GSEs, and the housing
                                      agencies be doing to address this concern?
                                         Ms. CLEETUS. I think in the first place, it is really important to
                                      evaluate the risk fairly and communicate that risk to the public.
                                      We need better flood risk maps that actually communicate this in-
                                      formation to the public so that they can make informed decisions
                                      about what is likely to be their single biggest asset.
                                         Right now, we have large swaths of the public who are largely
                                      unaware of how serious these risks are and how quickly they are
                                      coming.
                                         The other piece of this is really building in an equity and justice
                                      component into our climate resilience policies, because we are see-
                                      ing communities of color get gentrified out of their communities,
                                      and we are seeing resilience investments that benefit an elite few
                                      and not the broader public. And that needs to change as we go for-
                                      ward, because these risks are now affecting way too many parts of
                                      our country.
                                         Mr. LAWSON. Dr. Cleetus, you also testified that we can fix the
                                      climate crisis. [Inaudible] Which I am not sure, if we don’t build
                                      justice and equity into our solutions from the onset.
                                         Will you please elaborate a little bit more on that, and how can
                                      the whole-of-government approach be undertaken by Treasury Sec-
                                      retary Yellen and the National Economic Council (NEC) and others




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                                      through the recent climate financial Executive Order to inform our
                                      approach here?
                                         Ms. CLEETUS. I think we ought to start with the fact that our
                                      current market outcomes inherently have baked into them years of
                                      structural racism and social-economic inequities. We have had com-
                                      munities that haven’t been able to build generational wealth be-
                                      cause of the legacy of mortgage redlining and the lack of access to
                                      credit, as just one example.
                                         And that means, when you have climate risk coming on, they are
                                      coming on as a layer of additional risk over these longstanding
                                      problems. As we create solutions, let’s not have Band-Aids on top
                                      of the current system. Let’s actually be thinking about a more fair
                                      and equitable system that keeps people safe, for everybody, not just
                                      for a few.
                                         Mr. LAWSON. With that, Mr. Chairman, I yield back.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. Thank you, Mr. Lawson.
                                         We will get through Mr. Barr’s questioning, and then I think we
                                      can adjourn this panel.
                                         I would now recognize the gentleman from Kentucky, Mr. Barr.
                                         Mr. BARR. I thank my friend, the chairman of the subcommittee,
                                      and I appreciate the testimony of the witnesses.
                                         I know that fighting climate change is in vogue and everyone
                                      wants in on the action. But count me as someone who is a skeptic
                                      that increasing bank capital requirements or punishing lenders for
                                      not redlining energy companies is the way to go about it.
                                         My colleagues and also some folks in the Administration clearly
                                      want to weaponize the blunt instrument of bank capital require-
                                      ments to force a precipitous and unrealistic and, I would argue, un-
                                      economic transition away from fossil energy.
                                         The problem is, this will do nothing to change demand. People
                                      will still need to drive cars, turn on their lights, and heat their
                                      homes. And the Biden Administration’s own data shows that fossil
                                      energy will still make up more than 70 percent of consumption in
                                      2050.
                                         These efforts will just disrupt the supply side by shifting financ-
                                      ing for those industries to less-regulated non-bank lenders, drive
                                      up the cost of capital, and raise prices for consumers.
                                         Now, I know some of the witnesses want our regulators to go be-
                                      yond just banks and go into non-bank financing as well. But com-
                                      bine all of this with data aggregated by the Bank for International
                                      Settlements which shows that increases in capital requirements
                                      lead directly to reductions in lending and it becomes clear that this
                                      effort is not about managing financial stress, but it is really about
                                      causing financial stress, specifically to those companies and indus-
                                      tries that are politically unpopular.
                                         Dr. Rossi, what impact would the assessment of capital sur-
                                      charges, like those detailed in the draft Climate Crisis Financial
                                      Stability Act, have on lending to fossil energy firms?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. You have hit on many of the points that I would
                                      make. I think the first one that I would mention is that raising
                                      capital, first of all, will squeeze out lending in other segments, par-
                                      ticularly in that segment.
                                         If you are talking about, as I have seen, 150-percent risk rate as-
                                      sociated with oil and gas investments as one of those proposed bills




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                                      has in it, I would be concerned, first of all, as to where does that
                                      150-percent risk rate actually come from? What is the empirical
                                      basis for that?
                                         Because if you can imagine what that means, we are talking
                                      about significant amounts of capital being dedicated to investments
                                      in oil and gas which have knock-on effects, as I mentioned earlier,
                                      in terms of lack of ability through lack of lending to be able to go
                                      out and do the kind of oil and gas exploration that is needed to
                                      keep us protected against having to go elsewhere abroad for our
                                      fuel needs.
                                         Mr. BARR. I do think there is a risk here that by choking off fi-
                                      nancing to some of these energy companies that are really at the
                                      forefront of innovation in carbon capture and other technologies,
                                      that this could actually be very counterproductive.
                                         And it does look like an effort to exploit climate as an excuse to
                                      justify a move towards government central planning as opposed to
                                      an effort to help deploy capital to innovative companies that actu-
                                      ally might ameliorate emissions and decrease emissions.
                                         Let’s talk about systemic risk for a second. There is an important
                                      distinction between systemic risk and business risk. Systemic risk
                                      has a very specific definition: A certain activity or entity has the
                                      potential to actually bring down the entire financial system without
                                      enhanced supervision. But business risks are the countless risks
                                      firms manage every day, that if not mitigated properly, may have
                                      an impact on their bottom line.
                                         No one is denying the risk of changing weather patterns, and, in
                                      fact, banks, insurers, and other financial firms are already man-
                                      aging them as traditional business risk.
                                         It is hyperbolic to suggest, as some of my colleagues and vocal
                                      advocates have, that climate change, a phenomenon that occurs
                                      over literally decades, can somehow suddenly and precipitously
                                      overwhelm the banking system, the insurance sector, and the rein-
                                      surance sector, especially when you consider that a lot of the stress
                                      testing happens only over 9 quarters.
                                         So, Dr. Rossi, how are banks currently managing climate risk,
                                      and are they capable of effectively managing it without prudential
                                      supervision?
                                         Mr. ROSSI. I am going to take you back, Congressman, to the ear-
                                      lier comment that I made about this with regard to Citigroup’s cli-
                                      mate disclosure.
                                         Now, again, I don’t work at Citigroup any longer, but having
                                      looked at that just objectively, I would say that is a really good
                                      first step in the process.
                                         They have gone through and they have identified where their cli-
                                      mate risk exposures are, and they have identified the governance
                                      and the processes and controls that are necessary to manage cli-
                                      mate risk. And they are doing it fairly comprehensively. Again, you
                                      are talking about a far-flung portfolio reaching out to many, many
                                      countries in terms of their investments.
                                         I think they are on the right track, and I am sure all of the other
                                      big banks are on a similar path to do that.
                                         Mr. BARR. My time has expired. If I could just—if the chairman
                                      would just indulge one final comment.




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                                         We talk about transition risk. A lot of these bills that are being
                                      proposed by this hearing, I think create the transition risk.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. The gentleman’s time has expired.
                                         Mr. BARR. I yield back.
                                         Chairman PERLMUTTER. I thank him for that one additional com-
                                      ment.
                                         I would like to thank the witnesses.
                                         I think there is agreement here that there is some real risk in
                                      the financial system. And I think the question is, how long of a ho-
                                      rizon can we really analyze and determine?
                                         But there is no question that there is risk here. I think all the
                                      panelists would agree.
                                         And I just appreciate the testimony. I am sorry that it has been
                                      kind of a rushed afternoon. I want to thank you all for your testi-
                                      mony and for devoting the time and resources to share your exper-
                                      tise with this subcommittee. Your testimony today will help ad-
                                      vance the work of our subcommittee and of the House.
                                         The Chair notes that some Members may have additional ques-
                                      tions for these witnesses, which they may wish to submit in writ-
                                      ing. Without objection, the hearing record will remain open for 5
                                      legislative days for Members to submit written questions to these
                                      witnesses and to place their responses in the record. Also, without
                                      objection, Members will have 5 legislative days to submit extra-
                                      neous materials to the Chair for inclusion in the record.
                                         This hearing is now adjourned, and I thank the witnesses. I am
                                      going to come down and thank you personally.
                                         And to those of you on the screen, thank you very much. Your
                                      testimony was really appreciated.
                                         And, again, we are in the middle of a very busy afternoon, so we
                                      really appreciate you being here. Thank you.
                                         [Whereupon, at 3:28 p.m., the hearing was adjourned.]




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                                                                      APPENDIX




                                                                           June 30, 2021




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                                                                                      78




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 47 here 45383.047


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                                                                                      79




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 48 here 45383.048


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                                                                                      80




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 49 here 45383.049


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                                                                                      81




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 50 here 45383.050


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                                                                                      82




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 51 here 45383.051


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                                                                                      83




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 52 here 45383.052


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                                                                                      84




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 53 here 45383.053


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                                                                                      85




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 54 here 45383.054


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                                                                                      86




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 55 here 45383.055


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                                                                                      87




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 56 here 45383.056


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                                                                                      88




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 57 here 45383.057


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                                                                                      89




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 58 here 45383.058


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                                                                                      90




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 59 here 45383.059


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                                                                                      91




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 60 here 45383.060


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                                                                                      92




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 61 here 45383.061


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                                                                                      93




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 62 here 45383.062


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                                                                                      94




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 63 here 45383.063


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                                                                                      95




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 64 here 45383.064


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                                                                                      96




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 65 here 45383.065


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                                                                                      97




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 66 here 45383.066


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                                                                                      98




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 67 here 45383.067


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                                                                                      99




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 68 here 45383.068


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                                                                                      100




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 69 here 45383.069


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                                                                                      101




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 70 here 45383.070


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                                                                                      102




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 71 here 45383.071


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                                                                                      103




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 72 here 45383.072


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                                                                                      104




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 73 here 45383.073


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                                                                                      105




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 74 here 45383.074


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                                                                                      106




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 75 here 45383.075


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                                                                                      107




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 76 here 45383.076


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                                                                                      108




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 77 here 45383.077


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                                                                                      109




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 78 here 45383.078


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                                                                                      110




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 79 here 45383.079


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                                                                                      111




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 80 here 45383.080


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                                                                                      112




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 81 here 45383.081


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                                                                                      113




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 82 here 45383.082


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                                                                                      114




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 83 here 45383.083


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                                                                                      115




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 84 here 45383.084


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                                                                                      116




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 85 here 45383.085


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                                                                                      117




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 86 here 45383.086


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                                                                                      118




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 87 here 45383.087


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                                                                                      119




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 88 here 45383.088


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                                                                                      120




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 89 here 45383.089


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                                                                                      121




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 90 here 45383.090


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                                                                                      122




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 91 here 45383.091


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                                                                                      123




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 92 here 45383.092


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                                                                                      124




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 93 here 45383.093


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                                                                                      125




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 94 here 45383.094


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                                                                                      126




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 95 here 45383.095


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                                                                                      127




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 96 here 45383.096


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                                                                                      128




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 97 here 45383.097


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                                                                                      129




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 98 here 45383.098


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                                                                                      130




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 99 here 45383.099


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                                                                                      131




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 100 here 45383.100


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                                                                                      132




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 101 here 45383.101


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                                                                                      133




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 102 here 45383.102


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                                                                                      134




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 103 here 45383.103


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                                                                                      135




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 104 here 45383.104


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                                                                                      136




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 105 here 45383.105


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                                                                                      137




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 106 here 45383.106


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                                                                                      138




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 107 here 45383.107


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                                                                                      139




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 108 here 45383.108


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                                                                                      140




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 109 here 45383.109


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                                                                                      141




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 110 here 45383.110


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                                                                                      142




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 111 here 45383.111


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                                                                                      143




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 112 here 45383.112


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                                                                                      144




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 113 here 45383.113


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                                                                                      145




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 114 here 45383.114


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                                                                                      146




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 115 here 45383.115


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                                                                                      147




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 116 here 45383.116


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                                                                                      148




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 117 here 45383.117


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                                                                                      149




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 118 here 45383.118


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                                                                                      150




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 119 here 45383.119


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                                                                                      151




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 120 here 45383.120


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                                                                                      152




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 121 here 45383.121


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                                                                                      153




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 122 here 45383.122


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                                                                                      154




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 123 here 45383.123


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                                                                                      155




                                                                                                                                   Insert offset folio 124 here 45383.124


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