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2023 Report on Nonemployer Firms: Findings from the 2022 Small Business Credit Survey

Summary

The Federal Reserve Banks' 2023 Report on Nonemployer Firms presents findings from the 2022 Small Business Credit Survey, which was fielded September through November 2022 and yielded 5,755 responses from a nationwide convenience sample of nonemployer firms. The report says there are 27 million nonemployer firms in the United States and that 38% of nonemployers are startup firms in business 0 to 2 years. Almost half (46 percent) of startup nonemployers plan to add employees in the next 12 months. Older nonemployers are more profitable than startup nonemployers but report less revenue growth, while startup employer firms have the most pronounced financial challenges.

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“2023 Report on Nonemployer Firms: Findings from the 2022 Small Business Credit Survey.” Original at www.fedsmallbusiness.org. Archived at Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/source-documents/additionally-compared-to/, SHA-256 e324f48afacc4c81ba94a272e4afbd7ed42764a80cc7c51e03bcc370a1e96bf1.

Full text

2023 Report on
Nonemployer Firms:
Acknowledgments
Report team
Emily Wavering Corcoran, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Jordan Manes, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Lucas Misera, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Ann Marie Wiersch, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Please direct media inquiries to Doug Campbell at doug.campbell@clev.frb.org.

Please direct inquiries about research and data in this report to Emily Wavering Corcoran, Small Business Credit Survey senior program
manager, at emily.corcoran@clev.frb.org.

The Small Business Credit Survey is made possible through collaboration with business and civic organizations in communities across the
United States. The Federal Reserve Banks thank the national, regional, and community partners who share valuable insights about small
business financing needs and collaborate with us to distribute and promote the survey.

Special thanks to colleagues within the Federal Reserve System, especially the community affairs officers, for their ongoing support. The
2022 Small Business Credit Survey is the result of the collaborative effort and input of individuals across the Federal Reserve System.


Suggested Citation
“2023 Report on Nonemployer Firms: Findings from the 2022 Small Business Credit Survey.” 2023.
Small Business Credit Survey. Federal Reserve Banks.
doi.org/10.55350/SBCS-20230531

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                             2
         4        About the Small Business Credit Survey and Key Findings

         8        Firm Performance
                  Data on revenue and employment changes in the prior 12 months and expectations for the next 12 months

         14       Challenges
                  Data on financial challenges, operational challenges, and actions taken in response to challenges

         18       Debt and Financing
                  Data on outstanding debt, use of financial services, and firms’ credit-seeking experiences

         29       Demographics
                  Data on firm and owner characteristics

         38       Appendix
                  Data table, definitions, and methodology



                                                                                                                          3
SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS
About the Small Business Credit Survey
  The Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS) is an annual survey of firms with fewer than 500 employees. The SBCS
  sample includes employer firms as well as nonemployers, which are firms with no paid employees except the
  owner(s). Respondents are asked to report information about their business performance, financing needs and
  choices, and borrowing experiences. Responses to the SBCS provide insights on the dynamics behind lending
  trends and shed light on various segments of the small business population. The SBCS is not a random sample;
  results should be analyzed with awareness of potential biases that are associated with convenience samples. For
  detailed information about the survey design and weighting methodology, please consult the Methodology section.

  The 2022 SBCS was fielded September through November 2022 and yielded 5,755 responses from a nationwide
  convenience sample of nonemployer firms. This publication summarizes data for nonemployer firms that were
  currently operating or temporarily closed at the time of the survey, firms that recently closed are not included in the
  sample for this report. Estimates are shown only when the corresponding sample includes 50 or more
  observations.

  For more Small Business Credit Survey content, visit FedSmallBusiness.org.




SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                             4
Nonemployer firms in the SBCS

There are 27 million nonemployer firms in
the United States—that is, firms with no paid                                                                        38% of nonemployers are startup firms
employees except the owner(s). Approximately                                                                         that have been in business for 0—2 years
80% of small businesses are nonemployers.1


      Share of nonemployers that…                                               Startup nonemployers                                     Older nonemployers

      Are legally incorporated

      Work as independent contractors for
      other businesses or agencies
      Consider the work done for their
      business to be "gig" work2

     1 US Census Bureau, Nonemployer Statistics, 2019.
     2 Gig work is defined as a single project or task for which a worker is hired, sometimes through a digital marketplace, to work on demand.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                               5
Key findings
   The SBCS provides helpful insights on firms in different stages of the business life cycle—from small startup
   nonemployer firms to well-established employer businesses. This report focuses on the nonemployer businesses and
   explores the differences between younger and older firms and between nonemployer and employer businesses.

        Almost half (46 percent) of startup nonemployers—those in business 0 to 2 years—plan to add employees in the
         next 12 months. A majority of startup nonemployers are not yet profitable, but they often report revenue growth
         and expect revenues to increase in the future. These firms have fewer financial challenges than older firms but are
         more reliant on the owner’s personal funds when addressing those challenges.
        As startup nonemployers mature, some remain without paid employees. These older firms are more profitable
         than startup nonemployers, but they report less revenue growth. These firms rely less on funds from the owner
         and face fewer challenges obtaining credit. Their financial and operational challenges vary from those of startups,
         as these firms are more affected by inflation and supply chain issues.
        Some startups hire employees within their first 2 years in business. In many ways, these firms are similar to
         startup nonemployers in that they are far less profitable than more established firms. However, startup employer
         firms have the most pronounced financial challenges and are far more likely than other firms to report issues
         paying operating expenses. Their credit outcomes are better than nonemployers, but considerably worse than
         those of older employer firms. Those older employer firms, in contrast, are more profitable, less reliant on personal
         funds, and have more success obtaining financing.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                  6
By the numbers




SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS   7
Firm Performance
    Data on revenue and
    employment changes in the prior
    12 months and expectations for
    the next 12 months
Profitability, end of 2021
(% of firms)




                                                                  Startup firms are
                                                                  less profitable
                                                                  than older firms.
                                                                  As firms mature,
                                                                  employers
                                                                  become more
                                                                  profitable than
                                                                  nonemployers




SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                       9
Revenue change, prior 12 months
(% of firms)




Note: See Definitions for definitions of SBCS time references.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS   10
Expected revenue change, next 12 months
(% of firms)




Notes: Percentages across response options may not sum to 100 within firm categories because of rounding. See Definitions for definitions of SBCS time references.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                      11
Expectations of adding employees, next 12 months
(% of firms)




                                                                  Share of firms expecting to add employees,
                                                                  next 12 months (% of nonemployer firms)




Note: See Definitions for definitions of SBCS time references.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                12
Financial condition, at time of survey
(% of employer firms)




Notes: Percentages across response options may not sum to 100 within firm categories because of rounding. Self-reported financial condition at time of survey.
See Definitions for definitions of SBCS time references.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                  13
Challenges
Data on financial challenges,
operational challenges, and
actions taken in response to
challenges
Operational challenges, prior 12 months
(% of firms)




Notes: Respondents could select multiple options. Select response options shown. See Definitions for definitions of SBCS time references.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                             15
Financial challenges, prior 12 months
(% of firms)




                                                                                                                             Startup nonemployers experience
                                                                                                                             fewer financial challenges than older
                                                                                                                             nonemployers, but they face more
                                                                                                                             challenges obtaining credit




Notes: Respondents could select multiple response options. Select response options shown. See Definitions for definitions of SBCS time references. Examples of operating expenses
provided to respondents include wages, rent, and inventory costs.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                                     16
Actions taken in response to financial challenges
(% of firms with financial challenges)




Notes: Respondents could select multiple response options. Select response options shown.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                             17
Debt and Financing
   Data on outstanding debt,
   use of financial services, and firms'
   credit-seeking experiences
Amount of outstanding debt, at time of survey
(% of firms)




                                                                         Compared to older nonemployers and
                                                                         employers of any age, startup nonemployers
                                                                         are far less likely to have outstanding debt




Note: Percentages across response options may not sum to 100 within firm categories because of rounding.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                         19
Use of financial services providers
(% of firms)




Notes: Respondents could select multiple response options. Select response options shown. Financial services providers are those at which the firm has an account or
uses other financial services, including loans and payments processing. See Definitions for lender definitions.
SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                        20
Sources of funding, past five years
(% of firms)




Notes: Respondents could select multiple response options. Select response options shown. See Definitions for lender and SBCS time reference definitions.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                             21
Types of pandemic-related financial
assistance sought, prior 12 months
(% of firms)




Notes: Respondents could select multiple response options. "Financial assistance” includes all forms of pandemic-related financial assistance available in the 12 months prior to the
survey. EIDL is the SBA's Economic Injury Disaster Loan program. See Definitions for definitions of SBCS time references.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                                         22
Applications for loans, lines of credit, and
merchant cash advances, prior 12 months
(% of firms)




Note: See Definitions for SBCS time reference definitions.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS   23
Application rate by type of loan, line of credit,
or merchant cash advance
(% of loan, line of credit, and cash advance applicants)



                                                                                                                    Nonemployers are more likely than
                                                                                                                    employers to apply for personal loans to
                                                                                                                    fund their business. Startup nonemployers
                                                                                                                    are more likely than older nonemployers to
                                                                                                                    apply for a business loan, while applications
                                                                                                                    for SBA loans were more common among
                                                                                                                    older nonemployers.




Notes: Respondents could select multiple response options. Select response options shown. Excludes pandemic-related financial assistance applications.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                     24
Reasons for applying for financing
(% of loan, line of credit, and cash advance applicants)




Notes: Respondents could select multiple response options. Select response options shown. Excludes pandemic-related financial assistance applications. The full
response option for “Expand business” is “Expand business, pursue new opportunities, or acquire business assets.”

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                   25
Loan, line of credit, and cash advance
sources applied to
(% of loan, line of credit, and cash advance applicants)



                                                                                                                                    Nonemployer firm applicants were
                                                                                                                                    more likely than employer firm
                                                                                                                                    applicants to have sought
                                                                                                                                    financing at online lenders and
                                                                                                                                    less likely to have applied at banks




Notes: Respondents could select multiple response options. Select response options shown. See Definitions for lender definitions.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                            26
Outcomes on loan, line of credit,
and merchant cash advance applications
(% of loan, line of credit, and cash advance applicants)



                                                                  Approval rates for
                                                                  startup nonemployer
                                                                  applicants were lower
                                                                  than those for older
                                                                  nonemployers and
                                                                  employers of any age




SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                           27
Share of applicants fully approved, by source
(% of loan, line of credit, and cash advance applicants)




Notes: Respondents could select multiple response options. Select response options shown. See Definitions for lender definitions. Number of observations varies by source.
See Data Appendix for more details.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                              28
Demographics
 Data on firm and
 owner characteristics
Age of primary owner
(% of firms)




Note: Percentages across response options may not sum to 100 within firm categories because of rounding.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                            30
Annual revenues
(% of firms)




Notes: Percentages across response options may not sum to 100 within firm categories because of rounding. Revenue size categories have been condensed and simplified for readability.
Actual categories are ≤$25K, $25,001–$50K, $50,001–$100K, $100,001–$250K, $250,001–$500K, $500,001–$1M, $1,000,001–$5M, $5,000,001–$10M, and >$10M.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                                         31
Credit risk
(% of firms)




                                                                                                        Low credit risk: Firms with either a business credit score of
                                                                                                         80–100 or a personal credit score of 720 or greater

                                                                                                        Medium credit risk: Firms with either a business credit score
                                                                                                         of 50–79 or a personal credit score of 620–719 or greater

                                                                                                        High credit risk: Firms with either a business credit score of
                                                                                                         1–49 or a personal credit score of 620 or greater




Notes: In the SBCS, “credit risk” refers to a self-reported business credit score or personal credit score, depending on which is used to obtain financing for the business. When
firms use both, the weaker credit score is used to categorize the firm
SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                                     32
Gender of owner(s)
(% of firms)




Notes: SBCS responses throughout the report are weighted using census data to represent the US small employer firm population on the following dimensions: firm age, number of
employees, industry, geography, race/ethnicity of owner, and gender of owner.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                                  33
Geographic location
(% of firms)




Notes: Urban and rural definitions come from US Department of Agriculture Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes. SBCS responses throughout the report are weighted using census data to
represent the US small employer firm population on the following dimensions: firm age, number of employees, industry, geography, race/ethnicity of owner, and gender of owner.
SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                                      34
Industry
(% of firms)




Notes: Select industries shown. See Definitions for industry definitions. SBCS responses throughout the report are weighted using census data to represent the US small employer firm
population on the following dimensions: firm age, number of employees, industry, geography, race/ethnicity of owner, and gender of owner.

SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                                         35
Race/ethnicity of owner(s)
(% of firms)




                                                                    White: Non-Hispanic white, Middle Eastern, or North African
                                                                    Hispanic: Individuals of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, regardless of their race
                                                                    Black: Non-Hispanic Black or African American
                                                                    Asian: Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander
                                                                    American Indian or Alaskan Native: Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaskan Native




Notes: Percentages across response options may not sum to 100 within firm categories because of rounding. SBCS responses throughout the report are weighted using census data to
represent the US small employer firm population on the following dimensions: firm age, number of employees, industry, geography, race/ethnicity of owner, and gender of owner. The SBCS
uses US Census-defined categories of race and ethnicity. We use simplified, mutually exclusive race/ethnicity labels to indicate that more than 50% of the business is held by owner(s) of
the given race/ethnicity.
SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                                              36
Use of contract workers
(% of firms)




SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS   37
 Appendix
Data table, definitions, and
methodology
Data by year
(% of nonemployer firms)


                                                                             2017   2018   2019   2020   2021   2022

     Share operating at a profit, end of previous year                       43%    45%    43%    53%    28%    34%

     Share with revenue growth, prior 12 months                              41%    43%    44%    14%    31%    36%

     Share with expectations of revenue growth, next 12 months               71%    68%    69%    43%    64%    62%

     Share that expect to add employees over the next 12 months               --     --     --    26%    35%    34%

     Share in poor or fair financial condition                                --     --     --    70%    72%    69%

     Share with outstanding debt                                             44%    46%    50%    58%    57%    53%
     Share that applied for a loan, line of credit, or merchant cash
                                                                             18%    20%    22%    15%    17%    28%
     advance
     Share of applicants that were at least partially approved for a loan,
                                                                             61%    59%    63%    56%    52%    61%
     line of credit, or merchant cash advance
     Share that applied for pandemic related financial assistance             --     --     --    65%    62%    27%




SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                        39
Definitions: Financial services providers
and lenders
 Questions in the SBCS ask respondents about their use of and experiences with lenders and other financial services
 providers. Because respondents may not have a uniform understanding of the terms used in the SBCS, the questionnaire
 provides examples and explanatory information about the response options. The financial services providers, lenders,
 and lender categories referenced in the survey are defined as follows:

 Category                             Definition
                                      Large banks are defined as those with at least $10B in total deposits; small banks are those with less than $10B in total
 Large bank, small bank               deposits. For applicable questions, respondents are shown a list of large banks operating in their state to assist them with
                                      proper classification of their institution.
                                      Finance companies are nonbanks that provide loans, leases, and other financial services. Examples include mortgage
 Finance company
                                      companies, equipment dealers, insurance companies, and auto finance companies.

 Finance company that is not a bank   Examples include payroll services and payments processing companies, fintech lenders, and finance companies.

                                      This category includes all bank or nonbank financial intermediaries, such as banks, finance companies, online lenders, and
 Financial institution or lender
                                      credit unions.

 Government funding sources           Examples include the Small Business Administration (SBA), the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), and state agencies.

                                      Online lenders/fintech lenders are nonbanks that operate online. Examples include OnDeck, CAN Capital, Paypal Working
 Online lender/fintech lender
                                      Capital, and Kabbage.
                                      Community development financial institutions, or CDFIs, are financial institutions that provide credit and financial services
 CDFI
                                      to underserved markets and populations. CDFIs are certified by the CDFI Fund at the US Department of the Treasury.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                       40
Definitions: Industry categories

      Business support and consumer services                              Manufacturing
      Includes NAICS codes: 56, 81                                        Includes NAICS codes: 31, 32, 33
      Examples of businesses: Barbers, business event planning,           Examples of businesses: Electronics manufacturers, engraving,
      cleaning services, repair services, salons, spas, travel agencies   packaging, print shops, textile manufacturers


      Finance and insurance                                               Nonmanufacturing goods production and associated services
      Includes NAICS codes: 52                                            Includes NAICS codes: 11, 21, 22, 23, 42, 48, 49
      Examples of businesses: Loan brokers, portfolio                     Examples of businesses: Construction, farming, logistics,
      management firms                                                    mining, taxis, wholesale suppliers and distributors, warehousing


      Healthcare and education                                            Professional services and real estate
      Includes NAICS codes: 61, 62                                        Includes NAICS codes: 51, 53, 54, 55
      Examples of businesses: Counseling, day cares, dentists,            Examples of businesses: Book publishers, consulting, notaries,
      professional training, sports instruction, tutoring                 real estate agents, vehicle rentals


      Leisure and hospitality                                             Retail
      Includes NAICS codes: 71, 72                                        Includes NAICS codes: 44, 45
      Examples of businesses: Bars, caterers, fitness centers, gyms,      Examples of businesses: Boutiques, craft stores, ecommerce,
      hotels, performing arts venues                                      grocers, hardware stores



SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                              41
Definitions: Time references

Survey questions in the SBCS ask respondents to reference specific time periods. Most questions ask about respondents’
experiences in the 12 months prior to the time of their response. In some cases, questions ask about conditions at the
time of their response. Finally, some questions ask about respondents’ expectations in the 12 months following the time
of their response. The time periods referenced in the survey are defined as follows throughout this report:


                           Prior 12 Months                                             At Time of Survey

          The 12 months prior to the fielding of the survey. For
           the 2022 SBCS, this is approximately September–                      September through November 2022.
          November 2021 through September–November 2022.


                           Next 12 Months                                                 Past 5 Years

         The 12 months following the fielding of the survey. For       The 5-year period leading up to the survey. For the 2022
           the 2022 SBCS, this is approximately September–             SBCS, this is approximately September–November 2017
         November 2022 through September–November 2023.                          through September–November 2022



SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                   42
Methodology
 DATA COLLECTION

 The SBCS uses a convenience sample of establishments. A diverse set of partner organizations that serve the small business community contact businesses by email.1 The
 Federal Reserve Banks also directly contact prior SBCS participants, and, in the past, have contacted other small businesses on publicly available email lists. The survey
 instrument is an online questionnaire that typically takes 6 to 12 minutes to complete, depending on the intensity of a firm’s search for financing. The questionnaire uses
 question branching and flows based on responses to survey questions. For example, financing applicants receive a different line of questioning than nonapplicants.
 Therefore, the number of observations for each question varies by how many firms receive and complete a particular question.

 WEIGHTING

 A sample for the SBCS is not selected randomly; thus, the SBCS may be subject to biases not present with surveys that do select firms randomly. For example, there are
 likely firms not on our contact lists, and this may lead to a noncoverage bias. To control for potential biases, the sample data are weighted so that the weighted distribution
 of firms in the SBCS matches the distribution of the nonemployer firm population in the United States by age, industry, geographic location (urban or rural location), gender of
 owner(s), and race or ethnicity of owner(s). We first limit the sample in each year to only nonemployer firms.2 We then post-stratify respondents by their firm characteristics.
 Using a statistical technique known as “raking,” we compare the share of businesses in each category of each stratum (for example, within the industry stratum, the share of
 firms in the sample that are manufacturers) to the share of nonemployer businesses in the nation that are in that category.3 As a result, underrepresented firms are up
 weighted, and overrepresented businesses are down weighted. We iterate this process several times for each stratum to derive a sample weight for each respondent. This
 weighting methodology was developed in collaboration with the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago. The data used for weighting come
 from data collected by the US Census Bureau.4


 1 For more information on partnerships, please visit www.fedsmallbusiness.org/partnership.
 2 Weights for employer firms are computed separately, and a separate report on employer firms is issued annually.
 3 Age strata are 0–2 years, 3–4 years, 5–12 years, and 13+ years. Industry strata are nonmanufacturing goods production and associated services, manufacturing, retail, leisure and hospitality,
   finance and insurance, healthcare and education, professional services and real estate, and business support and consumer services. Race/ethnicity strata are Hispanic, non-Hispanic Asian, non-
   Hispanic Black or African American, non-Hispanic Native American, and non-Hispanic white. Gender strata are men-owned or equally owned and women-owned.
 4 Data on industry and urban/rural location come from the US Census Bureau’s 2019 Nonemployer Statistics (NES). USDA Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes are used to classify ZIP codes as
   urban or rural. Data on firm age come from the US Census Bureau’s 2012 Survey of Business Owners. Data on the race, ethnicity, and gender of business owners are derived from the US Census
   Bureau’s 2018 NES-D release.


SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                                                   43
Methodology (continued)
 RACE/ETHNICITY AND GENDER IMPUTATION

 Not every respondent provided complete information on the gender, race, and/or the ethnicity of their business’s owner(s). We need this information to correct for
 differences between the sample and the population data. To avoid losing these observations, we use a series of statistical models to impute the missing data. Generally,
 when the models predict with an accuracy of around 80 percent in out-of-sample tests, we use the predicted values from the models for the missing data.5 When the
 model outcomes are less certain, those data are not imputed, and the responses are dropped. After the models impute the data, we compare descriptive statistics of key
 survey questions with and without imputed data to ensure stability of estimates. In the final sample, five percent of nonemployer firm observations have imputed values
 for the gender, race, or ethnicity of a firm’s ownership.


 COMPARISONS TO PAST REPORTS

 Changes to the questionnaire and weighting methodology limit over-time comparability on certain metrics. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic brought about substantial
 changes in funding needs and sources for small businesses. With changes in the small business credit environment, the Small Business Credit Survey questionnaire has
 evolved to better assess small firms’ financing experiences. See the methodology of the Report on Employer Firms for a complete explanation of changes in the 2022
 questionnaire.




 5 Out-of-sample tests are used to develop thresholds for imputing the missing information. To test each model’s performance, half of the sample of nonmissing data is randomly assigned as
   the test group, while the other half is used to develop coefficients for the model. The actual data from the test group are then compared with what the model predicts for the test group. On
   predicted probabilities that are associated with an accuracy of around 80% are used, although this varies slightly, depending on the number of observations that are being imputed.



SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT SURVEY | 2023 REPORT ON NONEMPLOYER FIRMS                                                                                                                                    44


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