Summary of the 2025 Long-term Resource Adequacy Meeting - Washington UTC and Commerce (November 19, 2025)

Summary

A letter dated November 19, 2025 from the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission and the Washington Department of Commerce to Governor Bob Ferguson, the Secretary of the Senate and the Chief Clerk of the House of Representatives, transmitting the Summary of the 2025 Long-term Resource Adequacy Meeting held September 22, 2025. The letter states that reliability assessments indicated the Northwest's electric grid meets national resource adequacy criteria over the near and medium terms, and it discusses new load growth, new resource challenges and the Western Resource Adequacy Program (WRAP). It closes with the names Brian J. Rybarik and Jennifer Grove. The attached summary reports on presentations at the meeting, including the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance and Tacoma Power.

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“Summary of the 2025 Long-term Resource Adequacy Meeting - Washington UTC and Commerce (November 19, 2025).” Archived at Pandemic Darlings, https://pandemicdarlings.com/source-documents/2025-ue-210096-long-term-resource-adequacy-meeting-summary-2025-189515-5b84a7e7d9/, SHA-256 4317d2622d401d352a956d9f3121678b2ba698024429d657d7ec74b367e677a4.

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November 19, 2025

The Honorable Bob Ferguson
Governor of Washington
Office of the Governor
PO Box 40913
Olympia WA 98504-0913

The Honorable Sarah Bannister
Secretary of the Senate
312 Legislative Building
PO Box 40482
Olympia WA 98504-0482

The Honorable Bernard Dean
Chief Clerk of the House of Representatives
338 Legislative Building
PO Box 40482
Olympia WA 98504-0482

Re: Summary of the 2025 Long-term Resource Adequacy Meeting

Dear Governor Ferguson, Secretary Bannister, and Chief Clerk Dean,

We submit this attached summary of the 2025 long-term resource adequacy meeting held Sept.
22, 2025, as required by statute. This year, in response to public feedback to expand our schedule
under RCW 19.280.065, we hosted three meetings: one each for summer readiness, long-term
resource adequacy, and winter preparedness. The meeting agendas, recordings of each meeting,
and presentation materials are available on the Department of Commerce webpage and the
Utilities and Transportation Commission webpage.

Reliability assessments presented at the September 22 meeting indicated that the Northwest’s
electric grid meets national resource adequacy criteria over the near and medium terms under a
broad range of operating conditions. As a region assessed as “normal risk,” the Northwest has a
low likelihood of electricity supply shortfall.

However, “normal risk” is not the same as “no risk.” Although areas categorized as normal risk
are expected to have sufficient resources for plausible extreme conditions, they are not immune
to the effects of high-impact, low frequency weather events that affect demand and generation
The Honorable Bob Ferguson
The Honorable Sarah Bannister
The Honorable Bernard Dean
November 19, 2025
Page 2

simultaneously. Presentations also indicated that normal conditions are shifting with the impacts
of climate change, large new electricity uses like data centers and building and vehicle
electrification. If significant new electricity usage materializes and more extreme weather
continues, the grid could face reliability challenges. Presentations emphasized that no electric
system is 100% resource adequate, and there is no resource that provides perfect capacity. We
also underscore that it is important to incorporate risks associated with fossil generating
resources, including fuel supply risk and weather-driven forced outages.

With this uncertainty, it is clear that utilities and policy makers must increase efforts to make
customer energy demand more flexible, reduce delays in siting and interconnecting new clean
energy projects, expand regional transmission capacity, and improve transparency and accuracy
of load forecasts and planned resource additions. There is also a need to consider potential
changes to the mix of generating resources with greater focus on the capacity and fuel
requirements of the power system during critical periods, such as days of extreme cold combined
with low hydroelectric and wind generation.

Lack of Clarity Surrounding New Load Growth
There is limited visibility into whether large customer (including data center) interconnection
requests are duplicative or speculative, and utility-submitted data on planned resource additions
are less predictable than in recent history.

Discussions at the meeting underscored that, under some forecasts presented, if the region did
not add new generation capacity by 2030, it would have a resource gap equivalent to the current
electricity requirements of the State of Oregon, approximately 9 gigawatts. Existing utility
integrated resource plans (IRPs) show this gap closing. In addition, collaborative utility efforts,
such as the Northwest Energy Efficiency Association’s End-Use Load Flexibility project, 1 show
progress on reducing peak electricity demand through grid-connected consumer products and
dynamic services.

New Resource Challenges
We should be cautious of the assumptions behind the finding of adequacy. Bringing new
resources online continues to be difficult due to:
• Changes in federal policy and corresponding increased costs,
• Lack of in-state and regional transmission capacity, and
• Permitting and interconnection challenges.

Voluntary Resource Adequacy Program Struggles
Shortly after our meeting, six utilities announced they would not join the Western Resource
Adequacy Program (WRAP). This is an industry-led, voluntary regional resource adequacy
program to help utilities share resources during scarcity. PacifiCorp, which serves approximately
141,000 customers in Washington, opted out of the program, while Avista and Puget Sound
1
End-Use Load Flexibility - Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA).
The Honorable Bob Ferguson
The Honorable Sarah Bannister
The Honorable Bernard Dean
November 19, 2025
Page 3

Energy remain in. Reduced WRAP participation means that there will be fewer resources to
share, and therefore the benefits of the program potentially diminish for Washington utilities and
customers. Some utilities that have opted out of WRAP are now in talks to potentially create
their own regional program. We continue to monitor this dynamic and encourage continued
development and participation in regional resource adequacy initiatives.

Meanwhile, climate change is making extreme weather more frequent, posing the gravest threat
to grid reliability. The experts who gathered at this meeting continue to stress that the increased
severity and frequency of extreme weather events from climate change pose the greatest threat to
resource adequacy.

We look forward to continuing to partner with you on this work.

Sincerely,

Brian J. Rybarik Jennifer Grove
Chair Assistant Director, Energy Division
WA Utilities and Transportation Commission Washington Department of Commerce

Enclosure (1)
cc:
2025 Long-Term Resource Adequacy Meeting Summary
Page 4

2025 Long-Term Resource Adequacy Meeting Summary

Introduction
On September 22, 2025, the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (UTC) and the
Washington Department of Commerce (Commerce) convened a public meeting to review the
adequacy of energy resources to serve the state’s electricity needs and receive an update from
regional experts and Washington utilities on the long-term resource adequacy of the electric grid.
We convened this meeting and submit this summary in response to public feedback to expand
our annual resource adequacy meeting under RCW 19.280.065 to three meetings: one meeting in
the spring focused on summer readiness, one meeting in late summer to discuss long-term
resource adequacy, and another in late fall to focus on winter preparedness.
RCW 19.280.065(1) says:

At least once every twelve months, the department and the commission shall jointly
convene a meeting of representatives of the investor-owned utilities and consumer-
owned utilities, regional planning organizations, transmission operators, and other
stakeholders to discuss the current, short-term, and long-term adequacy of energy
resources to serve the state's electric needs, and address specific steps the utilities
can take to coordinate planning in light of the significant changes to the Northwest's
power system including, but not limited to, technological developments,
retirements of legacy baseload power generation resources, and changes in laws
and regulations affecting power supply options. The department and commission
shall provide a summary of these meetings, including any specific action items, to
the governor and legislature within sixty days of the meeting.

Maintaining an adequate supply of electricity is a core obligation of the utilities that provide
electric service to Washington residents and businesses. State policy reinforces this obligation as
Washington transforms its electric power system and economy, reducing and eventually
eliminating emissions from fossil fuel combustion for electricity generation. 2

The state’s 100% clean electricity law, the Clean Energy Transformation Act, 3 includes
requirements for utilities to establish specific standards for resource adequacy and incorporate
those standards into their planning and compliance. 4 As utilities reduce reliance on fossil fuels
and add renewable resources such as wind and solar, new approaches and resources will be
required to maintain resource adequacy.

While resource adequacy is an obligation of each electric utility serving end-use customers in the
state, it also is a shared responsibility of the overall electric power system and the entities that
operate, plan, regulate, design, and fund that system.

2
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy, page 119-120. https://commerce.wa.gov/energystrategy
3
Chapter 19.405 RCW.
4
RCW 19.280.030. This resource planning statute was amended by the CETA legislation to add explicit
resource adequacy provisions.
2025 Long-Term Resource Adequacy Meeting Summary
Page 5

The following summarizes the presentations and discussion at the September 2025 meeting.

Resource Adequacy 101—Energy Systems Integration Group
Energy Systems Integration Group (ESIG) is a non-profit organization and a leading source of
expertise for energy systems around the world. ESIG described resource adequacy as “the ability
of the electric system to supply firm demand at all times (up to some criteria).” This definition
highlights two important aspects of resource adequacy.
• Resource adequacy refers to the ability to generate and move power over transmission
lines to where it is needed; it does not include local distribution line disruptions.
• It is measured against criteria, such as a One-day-in-ten-years loss-of-load event, which
determines an acceptable amount of risk of resource shortfall.

In other words, resource adequacy is the likelihood we will have enough power and transmission
to meet electricity demand based on defined criteria. Changes in resource adequacy criteria may
impact whether an electric system is deemed adequate. The industry is increasingly moving to
multi-metric criteria to examine the adequacy of the electric system and the capacity
contributions of individual resources to account for shifting resource adequacy risks, such as
potential weather-related and fuel supply outages.

Key takeaways from the presentation were that no electric system is 100% resource adequate,
and there is no resource that provides perfect capacity. Meeting resource adequacy will require
utilities to develop diverse resource portfolios and secure transmission capacity necessary to
meet multi-metric criteria. Utilities should continue to evaluate the adequacy of their resource
portfolios as the region adds new loads. ESIG observed a system that was 100% adequate would
be cost prohibitive.

ESIG offered a number of ways to improve resource adequacy while lowering system costs,
including energy efficiency and demand response, expansion of regional transmission and energy
markets, and adoption of a binding regional resource adequacy program, such as the WRAP, that
would allow utilities to coordinate their diverse resources to avoid shortfalls.

Reliability Assessments — North American Electric Reliability Corporation and Western
Electric Coordinating Council
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) is the Electric Reliability
Organization for North America. Its mission is to assure the effective reduction of risks to the
reliability and security of the grid. It is subject to oversight by the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission (FERC) and governmental authorities in Canada. The Western Electricity
Coordinating Council (WECC) is one of six regional entities under NERC that has authority
delegated under the Federal Power Act to ensure a reliable and secure bulk power system
throughout the Western Interconnection. WECC has the responsibility to create, monitor, and
enforce reliability standards and promote activities, such as regional resource adequacy
assessments, of the bulk power system in the Western Interconnection.

NERC presented its 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA), as its 2025 LTRA was not
yet complete at the time of the meeting. The LTRA found that unlike some parts of the United
2025 Long-Term Resource Adequacy Meeting Summary
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States, which have an elevated risk of resource inadequacy, the Western Interconnection has a
normal level of risk as of the 2024 assessment.

Study results show WECC is in the top one-third of all assessment areas for demand growth.
Demand growth is being driven primarily by data centers, but also industrial onshoring and
electrification of transportation and buildings. Meanwhile, resource projections reflect slower
rates of additional resources being interconnected to the grid due to project delays and
cancellations.

Data presented by WECC shows the Northwest adding 14 GW in new generation between 2026
and 2035. Nearly all these resource additions are intermittent power sources, and almost half of
the generation comes from wind. Meanwhile, nearly 345 MW of generation over the same time
period is planned to be retired, roughly 85% of which are clean resources. In the Northwest
subregion, annual demand is expected to grow 24% between 2026 and 2035 with peak demand
expected to increase by 20.6%.

The information that goes into the LTRA is aggregated from data provided by balancing
authorities that collect and aggregate resource plans of utilities (not all utilities are balancing
authorities). WECC explained they have been working more closely with balancing authorities
and utilities to standardize and ensure the integrity of reporting to WECC.

Northwest Utilities Resource Adequacy Study — Energy and Environmental Economics,
Inc.
Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) is a nationally recognized consultant
specializing in decarbonization and the clean energy transition, including climate policy analysis,
integrated system planning, and asset valuation and strategy. E3 was retained by Pacific
Northwest utilities and generation owners to evaluate resource adequacy in the Pacific Northwest
today and in the future. The industry hired E3 to do a similar study prior to adoption of
Washington’s 100% clean electricity law, the Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA), in 2019.
The findings are similar.

The preliminary results of the 2025 study suggest the planned resource additions in utility IRPs
are likely sufficient to meet the region’s resource adequacy needs, but that meeting the pace of
growth anticipated in utility IRPs will require annual resource additions equal to four to five
times historic levels. The study finds the region experiencing significant headwinds due to
permitting and interconnection delays, changes in federal policy, and higher costs. Without any
new resource additions, the region would have a gap in resources beginning in 2026 and growing
to 9 gigawatts by 2030, which is approximately the load of the state of Oregon. Data centers and
the electrification of buildings and transportation are the principal contributors to load growth.

The study finds the most constraining reliability conditions are extended cold weather events in
the winter during very low water years. The preliminary results suggest utilities will need to
deploy some natural gas resources under the 2030 carbon neutral standard of CETA to meet
demand during these extreme and infrequent conditions. The second phase of the study, expected
by the end of this year, will evaluate resource options for meeting near-term and long-term
resource adequacy and clean energy needs.
2025 Long-Term Resource Adequacy Meeting Summary
Page 7

Update on Data Center Working Group under Governor’s EO 25-05 — UTC and
Commerce
UTC and Commerce provided an update on the Data Center Workgroup convened by the
Department of Revenue and Governor’s Office, in response to the Governor’s Executive Order
25-05. Representatives from the UTC and Commerce provided a summary of each agency’s
priorities, which include:
• Accurate load forecasting: Speculation and duplicative load forecasts make it hard to
forecast regional resource needs.
• Conformance with state energy and climate laws: Data center loads should comply
with state clean energy and climate laws.
• Load flexibility: Data centers should exercise available load flexibility to help the
electric grid during peak periods.
• Leveraging tech investments in transmission and generation: The state should work
with hyperscalers who have immense experience deploying transmission and clean
energy technologies and the funding needed to deploy them to the benefit of data centers
and the overall electric grid.
• Adequate resources to maintain reliability: Utilities should not feel obligated to serve
large loads if serving these loads threatens the resource adequacy and reliability of the
electric grid.
• Impacts on hydropower resources and fish populations: Data center operations should
not affect the operation of the hydropower system or fish populations.
• Rate impacts: Existing ratepayers should be insulated and protected against potential
rate impacts of adding data centers to the electric grid.
• Clean energy for economic development: The development of data centers should
support the growth of clean energy jobs.

Demand-side Resource Opportunities — Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance and
Tacoma Power
Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) is an alliance of utilities and partners that pools
resources and shares risks to transform the market for energy efficiency to the benefit of all
consumers in the Northwest.

Recently NEEA announced that 10 regional utilities are funding an End-Use Load Flexibility
initiative, exploring ways that grid-connected consumer products and dynamic services can fill
regional winter-time power constraints within the next five years.

NEEA forecasts the project will deliver a 1-to-3-gigawatt resource to the region within the next
four years, reducing the region’s peak load by 10%. NEEA is developing its strategic and
business plans for the 2026-2029 period, which include testing and refining projects and scaling
and adapting utility load-flex programs by codifying best practices and providing tools to support
market awareness.

Tacoma Power shared the potential for demand flexibility in its service territory and the technical
and economic challenges of being an early adopter of demand response. The utility shared that
2025 Long-Term Resource Adequacy Meeting Summary
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industrial partners were often eager to participate in demand response programs. Residential
customers have varied responses and often require intentional outreach before participating.

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