Study — Washington State Refinery Economic Impact (Western Washington University, February 2025)
Summary
This February 2025 report to the Legislature is the Washington State Refinery Economic Impact Study, prepared by the Western Washington University Center for Economic and Business Research for the Washington State Department of Commerce under Chapter 475, Laws of 2023. It provides an assessment of the economic impacts of the current operations of Washington's five refineries and evaluates scenarios for how operations and impacts may change. The report says it is not a policy report and does not make policy recommendations. Its first listed finding is that the refineries are significant local employers that provide high wages compared to other industries. The text also includes comments about the March Point refineries from the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, closing with Steve Edwards, Chairman.
Summary drafted by a model from the document's text below and checked by script against that text before publication. It is a navigation aid, not a reading of what the document proves. Where AI is used
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“Study — Washington State Refinery Economic Impact (Western Washington University, February 2025).”
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Washington State Refinery
Economic Impact Study
Chapter 475, Laws of 2023, Sec. 132 (19)
Prepared by the Western Washington University Center for
Economic and Business Research
February 2025
Report to the Legislature
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC
AND BUSINESS RESEARCH
Director Joe Nguyễn
v3.5.1
Clean Energy Transition Institute
Acknowledgments Ruby Moore-Bloom
Consultants Eileen V. Quigley
Western Washington University Center for Washington State Department of Commerce
Economic and Business Research Stephanie Celt, Senior Energy Policy Specialist
James McCafferty Michelle Gladstone-Wade, Director of Tribal
Hart Hodges Relations
James Mark Gbeda Shannon Pressler, Public Engagement Specialist
McK Mollner
Anna Newberry 1011 Plum St. SE
Dylan Braund P.O. Box 42525
Ellie Potts Olympia, WA 98504-2525
Jordan Arzu
Parker Perry www.commerce.wa.gov
Jackson Jacoy
For people with disabilities, this report is available on
request in other formats. To submit a request, please
Laural Ballew, Executive Director for American
call 7-1-1 and ask to be connected to 360-725-4000.
Indian/Alaska Native and First Nation
Relations/Tribal Liaison to the President
Washington State University
Kristin Brandt
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 2
Table of contents
Executive summary .........................................................................................................................................6
Chapter 1: Refineries in Washington .............................................................................................................15
Chapter 2: Achieving Washington Decarbonization Mandates .......................................................................34
Washington State Law...................................................................................................................................34
Chapter 3: Forecasting the Future .................................................................................................................40
Forecasted Fuel Demand ...............................................................................................................................40
Chapter 4: Refinery Workforce Analysis ........................................................................................................93
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................93
Chapter 5: Refineries in Transition ..............................................................................................................113
Background ................................................................................................................................................113
Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................146
Appendix A: Engagement ............................................................................................................................148
Appendix B: Additional Materials for Chapter 3 ...........................................................................................152
Appendix C: Additional Materials for Chapter 4 ...........................................................................................174
Appendix D: Letter from the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community ...............................................................205
Tables
Table 1: Overview of refinery capacity, employment and greenhouse gas emissions. ......................................... 19
Table 2: Comparison of emitted pollutants from each refinery. .............................................................................. 20
Table 3: Occupations in the petroleum refining industry. Data from BLS and Chmura, Q4 2023. ........................ 23
Table 4: Employment of petroleum pump system operators, refinery operators and gaugers by industry in
Washington. ......................................................................................................................................................... 25
Table 5: Employment of mixing and blending machine setters, operators and Tenders by Industry in
Washington. ......................................................................................................................................................... 25
Table 6: Phillips 66 Refinery emissions ..................................................................................................................... 26
Table 7: Marathon Refinery emissions ...................................................................................................................... 27
Table 8: HF Sinclair emissions ................................................................................................................................... 28
Table 9: Par Pacific- U.S. Oil Refinery emissions ..................................................................................................... 29
Table 10: BP Cherry Point Refinery emissions .......................................................................................................... 30
Table 11: Reference case 2023 AEO U.S. petroleum fuel consumption values (billion gallons/year). ................ 41
Table 12: Projected state, province and regional fuel consumption data (billion gallons/year). .......................... 46
Table 13: Reference case 2023 IEO global petroleum fuel consumption values. (billion gallons/year). ............. 46
Table 14: Reference case 2023 AEO U.S. renewable fuel production volumes (billion gallons/year). ................. 47
Table 15: Washington renewable diesel and AJF replacement estimates ............................................................. 49
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 3
Table 16: OCED-FAO renewable fuel consumption and ICAO AJF production projections in (billion
gallons/year). ....................................................................................................................................................... 50
Table 17: Calculated potential renewable fuel production (billion gal/yr) and estimated conversion costs at
converted Washington refineries for three theoretical production ratios. These values assume that all
refineries convert at each level without assessing the viability of this choice. .............................................. 51
Table 18: Estimated policy support for RFS, WA CFS and 45Z. 45Z is only applicable from 2025 through 2027.
Biorefinery values apply to purpose-built biorefineries or converted petroleum refineries. .......................... 55
Table 19: Scenarios, likely time periods, and comments on GHG emissions compliance. ................................... 57
Table 20: Production and employment decline case descriptions and reasoning ................................................ 70
Table 21: Summary of Direct Effects by Industry Output IMPLAN Model, Cases 1.1 to 1.4. ................................ 73
Table 22: Employment and Labor Income Multipliers .............................................................................................. 74
Table 23: Summary Impacts of Case 1.1, Current Production Levels ..................................................................... 74
Table 24: Case 1.1, Top Five Industries Supported at Current Production Levels, Ranked by Estimated Impact
to Employment. .................................................................................................................................................... 74
Table 25: Case 1.1, Estimated Tax Revenue at Current Production Levels. ........................................................... 75
Table 26: Case 1.2, Summary Impacts of a 6% decline in Production. ................................................................... 75
Table 27: Case 1.2, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment under 6% decline in
Production. ........................................................................................................................................................... 76
Table 28: Case 1.2, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from a 6% decline in Production. ............................................ 76
Table 29: COBRA estimates of health impacts and economic value of avoided costs of a 6% decrease in
pollutants from petroleum refineries. ................................................................................................................ 77
Table 30: Case 1.3, Summary Impacts of a 14% decline in production. ................................................................. 77
Table 31: Case 1.3, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment for a 14% decline in
production ............................................................................................................................................................ 78
Table 32: Case 1.3, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from a 14% decline in production. .......................................... 78
Table 33: Case 1.3, COBRA estimates of health impacts and economic value of avoided costs of a 14%
decrease in pollutants from petroleum refineries. ............................................................................................ 79
Table 34: Case 1.4, Summary Impacts of a 95% decline in production .................................................................. 79
Table 35: Case 1.4, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment for a 95% decline in
production ............................................................................................................................................................ 80
Table 36: Case 1.4, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from a 95% decline in production. .......................................... 80
Table 37: Case 1.4, COBRA estimates of health impacts and economic value of avoided costs of a 95%
decrease in pollutants from petroleum refineries. ............................................................................................ 80
Table 38: Summary of Direct Effects by Industry Employment IMPLAN Model, Cases 2.1 to 2.4. ...................... 82
Table 39: Summary Impacts of Case 2.1, Current Employment Levels. ................................................................. 82
Table 40: Case 2.1, Top Five Industries Supported at Current Employment Levels, Ranked by Estimated Impact
to Employment. .................................................................................................................................................... 83
Table 41: Case 2.1, Estimated Tax Revenue at Current Employment Levels. ........................................................ 83
Table 42: Case 2.2, Summary Impacts of a 70% decline in Employment. .............................................................. 84
Table 43: Case 2.2, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment under 70% decline in
Employment. ........................................................................................................................................................ 84
Table 44: Case 1.2, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from a 70% Decline in Employment. ....................................... 84
Table 45: Case 2.3, Summary Impacts of an 85% decline in Employment. ............................................................ 85
Table 46: Case 2.3, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment for an 85% decline in
Employment. ........................................................................................................................................................ 85
Table 47: Case 2.3, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from an 85% decline in Employment. ..................................... 86
Table 48: Case 2.4, Summary Impacts of a 95% decline in Employment. .............................................................. 86
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 4
Table 49: Case 2.4, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment for a 95% decline in
Employment. ........................................................................................................................................................ 87
Table 50: Case 2.4, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from a 95% decline in Employment......................................... 87
Table 51: Taxes Due from Refineries by tax type ..................................................................................................... 88
Table 52: Major Occupational Groups within the Petroleum and Coal Manufacturing Industry (NAICS 324100),
ordered by percentage of total employment, per Bureau of Labor Statistics Analysis. ................................ 96
Table 53: Most Desired Certifications for Refinery Operations and Maintenance, ranked by occurrence. .......... 98
Table 54: Most Desired Certifications for Refinery Management and Administration, ranked by occurrence. . 100
Table 55: Most Desired Certifications for Refinery Engineers and Scientists, ranked by occurrence. ............... 100
Table 56: Most Desired Positions for Refinery Operations and Maintenance, ranked by occurrence. .............. 102
Table 57: Most Desired Positions for Refinery Management and Administration, ranked by occurrence. ........ 102
Table 58: Most Desired Positions for Retail Workforce of Refinery Products, ranked by occurrence. .............. 103
Table 59: Most Desired Positions for Refinery Engineers and Scientists, ranked by occurrence. ...................... 103
Table 60: Most Desired Hard Skills Related to Refinery Operations, ranked by occurrence. .............................. 104
Table 61: Most Desired Hard Skills Related to Refinery Management and Administration, ranked by occurrence.
............................................................................................................................................................................ 104
Table 62: Most Desired Soft Skills for Workers at Petroleum Refineries in Washington, ranked by occurrence.
............................................................................................................................................................................ 105
Table 63: Net-Zero Northwest: Washington Fuels Sector Employment (Direct and Indirect Jobs) .................... 112
Table 64: Considerations for each scenario. .......................................................................................................... 119
Table 65: Extraction Based Remediation Methods ................................................................................................ 128
Table 66: Barrier and Capping Remediation Methods ............................................................................................ 129
Table 67: Advanced Sustainable Remediation Methods ....................................................................................... 130
Table 68: In Situ Remediation Methods................................................................................................................... 131
Table 69: Heat-Based Remediation Methods. ........................................................................................................ 131
Table 70: Total Industry Occupation Breakdown of Petroleum Refining in Washington, including one-year
projected changes in employment, via JobsEQ. ............................................................................................. 174
Table 71: Statewide Alternative Industries for Top 25 Occupations in Washington, via JobsEQ. ...................... 183
Table 72: 10-year Demand in Whatcom County for Top 25 Occupations, excluding Petroleum and Coal
Products Manufacturing, via JobsEQ. ............................................................................................................. 187
Table 73: 10-year Demand in Skagit County for Top 25 Occupations, excluding Petroleum and Coal Products
Manufacturing, via JobsEQ. .............................................................................................................................. 193
Table 74: 10-year Demand in Pierce County for Top 25 Occupations, excluding Petroleum and Coal Products
Manufacturing, via JobsEQ. .............................................................................................................................. 199
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 5
Executive summary
Purpose and legislative requirements
Chapter 475, Laws of 2023, Sec. 132 (19) requires the Washington State Department of Commerce
(Commerce) to contract with a third-party entity to conduct a study that analyzes the economic impact of oil
refining in Washington. Commerce must submit the report to the Legislature by December 31, 2024.
This report provides a broad assessment of the economic impacts of the current operations of Washington's
five refineries and evaluates scenarios that describe how the operations and economic impacts may change in
the future. The purpose of the study is to provide data and analysis that helps our state to understand how
anticipated changes in the oil market may impact refineries, refinery workers, communities and tribes near
refineries. This study is not a policy report and does not make policy recommendations. However, the data
provided in this study can be used by stakeholders to help understand potential changes and may be used to
inform additional planning and policy processes in the future. We intend this study to serve refineries, refinery
communities, and policy makers and their future needs.
In order to complete this work, Commerce contracted with Western Washington University's Center for
Economic and Business Research. The study team evaluated existing research and the best available public
data, engaged with tribal staff and leadership, convened an Advisory Committee, and utilized modeling tools
and specialized databases including IMPLAN Economic Impacts Model, JobsEQ Real-Time Intelligence Job
Postings Database, and the EPA Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Health Impacts (COBRA) tool among other
resources. This report is informed by the Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy and state greenhouse gas
(GHG) reduction requirements.
Key Findings
The study has identified ten key findings. The findings, associated sub-points, and additional context are
presented in brief below. Each chapter in this study begins with a presentation of the relevant finding or
findings based on the data and analysis included in the chapter from which the findings are derived.
As a note on terminology used in this report, in the context of economic impact analysis, "significant" means
that the impacts in the economic are noticeable and substantial. Use of this term in this context does not apply
a value judgement about these impacts beyond categorizing their scope as substantial.
1. Washington’s refineries are significant local employers that provide
high wages compared to other industries in the communities where
they are located.
1.1 Refineries employ a large number of workers – approximately 2,200 permanent employees and 2,000
contract workers. Many of these workers are represented by unions.
The five Washington refineries employ more than 2,200 permanent employees and approximately 2,000
contract workers per year. Additionally, refineries pay substantially higher salaries, on average, than the per
capita averages in these counties, making a significant contribution to each county’s economic activity.
Refinery worker salaries vary significantly based on role, seniority and other factors. However, when looking at
the state petroleum refining industry, average wages range from $97,000 to $191,800, which is greater than
the county averages across all industries ($61,000 to $66,000). Average annual wages for occupations in the
petroleum refining industry range from $2,000 to $35,000 higher than statewide occupational wages. It is
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 6
important to note that refinery jobs are economically valuable in these counties and that employees might
struggle to attain comparable wages in other jobs in these counties.
2. Washington’s refineries pay significant levels of state and local
taxes, which fund public services, pollution prevention, and
environmental remediation, among other things.
Refineries pay numerous types of state and local taxes directly, and taxes are paid based on the wages paid to
workers. Refineries may also receive some tax breaks, particularly related to federal research and development
incentives. Even with these tax breaks taken into consideration, the estimated tax contributions at the state
and local levels from refineries amounts to over $292 million per year. Some of this funding is used to pay for
public services, while about 47% (approximately $137 million per year) is supplied through the Hazardous
Substance Tax. The Hazardous Substance tax is designed to help address environmental harms that result
from hazardous substances such as petroleum products. This includes funding the Model Toxics Control Act
(MTCA) pay for cleanups and oversight. Local property tax revenue contributes to local school districts,
emergency services and other local government operations. Refinery workers also contribute to tax revenues
when they use their income to purchase goods and services.
3. Tribes with and without treaty rights, and tribal citizens, have
crucial perspectives on the impacts of refining in Washington, and
their input must be a central component of discussions and
evaluations regarding current and future refinery operations.
3.1 Washington's refineries are located on or near tribal lands, including usual and accustomed territories.
3.2 Refinery operations have infringed on tribal treaty rights including harvesting rights, land rights, and
cultural practices.
3.3 Refineries have damaged tribes’ environmental health by tainting traditional food sources and causing
dangerous spills and flares.
The Legislature provided important direction to Commerce in relation to the completion of this study: “The
department must offer early, meaningful, and individual consultation with any affected Indian tribe for the
purpose of understanding potential impacts to tribal rights and resources including cultural resources,
archaeological sites, sacred sites, fisheries, and human health.”
This approach is critical, as refinery operations impact tribal nations and citizens in many ways. In particular,
impacts on treaty rights must be considered. It has been a central focus of the work of this study to make
every effort and respond to every opportunity to consult with tribes and ensure that the array of diverse
perspectives and unique input we’ve received through that consultation is infused into this work. This study
does so in multiple ways, including information shared in chapters one and five, as well as in an articulation of
the engagement with tribes as well as public engagement that was conducted as part of this work (see
Appendix A). While it is not possible to summarize all of the perspectives of tribal leaders and tribal citizens in
relation to the topics in this study, the document includes reference to the history, includes public data on
impacts and interactions between tribes and refineries and, where appropriate, includes more direct input from
conversations and interviews conducted as part of this project. Tribal perspectives are and must remain
central to understanding current or future refinery operations or future uses of these sites.
Chapter 1 provides data and analysis related to Key Findings 1-3.
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4. Greenhouse gas emission limits and other climate and clean energy
policies in Washington and across the broader regional market will
contribute to changes in Washington’s refinery industry.
4.1 Under the Climate Commitment Act, Washington refineries are “emissions-intensive, trade exposed
industries” or EITEs, and currently receive no-cost allowances for their emissions.
4.2 The Climate Commitment Act, statutory greenhouse gas limits, the state Clean Fuel Standard and other
policies will impact refinery operations as emissions caps decrease and demand for zero-emission
vehicles increases.
The policy and regulatory context related to greenhouse gas emissions, clean fuels, and related policies is
critical as these policies will shape the market for current and future petroleum products and alternative fuels,
as well as regulating the refineries themselves.
Chapter 2 provides context and analysis related to Key Finding 4.
5. As petroleum demand declines, refinery operations will change, and
economic impacts will vary depending on type and degree of decline.
5.1 Most of the petroleum products refined in Washington are sold to markets with greenhouse gas
emission limits that will contribute to reduced demand for petroleum-based fuels.
5.2 Production and employment declines will lead to declines in labor income and value added, output, and
tax revenues.
5.3 Reductions in petroleum demand and use will likely contribute to savings associated with health care
and environmental costs.
This study reflects the likelihood, based on multiple public forecasts, strategies, and public policy, that demand
for refined petroleum products will decline over the next 25 years. While modeling scenarios and resulting
projections change depending on the assumptions and methodology, it was common across all data
resources that conventional petroleum demand will decline in the coming decades. Scenarios evaluate
reductions ranging from 6% to 95%. The 95% reduction scenarios are developed on a scenario of economy-
wide greenhouse gas reductions to reach net-zero limits, and reflect that similar laws and policies are in place
in the common markets for Washington's petroleum products.
The changes in demand and the resulting decisions that refineries may make to adjust to reduced demand
vary, though all reviewed scenarios project economic losses for refineries and refinery communities, including
loss of direct and indirect jobs and reductions in most types of taxes that refineries pay today. The scale of
these impacts was estimated utilizing IMPLAN, an economic modeling software for several scenarios.1 The
functions available in the current version of IMPLAN does not include projections related to job growth in other
sectors related to clean energy that may accompany reductions in petroleum production.
While the full range of projected changes are discussed in detail in this document, there are important ranges
of total economic impacts that may occur depending on scale of demand decline. These include the following:
Low end 6% decline: 1,838 jobs lost, and state and local tax payments reduced by over $38 million
1 IMPLAN (Impact Analysis for Planning) is economic impacts analysis software that combines data and analytics to evaluate
economic impacts and effects using an input-output (I-O) model.
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High end net zero: Over 25,000 jobs lost, and state and local tax payments reduced by over $112 million.
In addition to reduced economic impacts described above, reduced petroleum demand and use would likely
also have positive economic outcomes for Washingtonians and the local environment. These could include
savings associated with reduced costs that are often associated with refinery operations and petroleum use,
such as health care costs or reduced costs associated with environmental remediation. While the primary
IMPLAN modeling software used to calculate the direct and indirect economic impacts of changes to
petroleum demand and use do not account for these health and environmental costs and co-benefits,
additional tools were used to assess these topics. The US EPA Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Health Impacts
Screening and Mapping Tool (COBRA) was used to assess the co-benefits of study scenarios based on
reduced petroleum refinery emissions. A summary of anticipated impacts include:
Low end 6% decline: $1 million to $1.6 million benefit in improved health effects due to reductions in PM2.5
and O3 in Washington.
High end net zero: $16 million to $26 million benefit in improved health effects due to reductions in PM2.5
and O3 in Washington.
6. All five of Washington’s refineries are likely to change their product
mix or function as part of achieving net zero emission limits by 2050.
6.1 Several scenarios of change in refinery product mix or function are possible and may occur in
succession.
6.2 Washington refineries may remain viable in the future, but are expected to change their core products
or overall function. Refinery closure is possible, but more likely in the long term.
This study evaluates eight scenarios that Washington’s refineries may choose in the coming years, including
smaller changes to products produced, more significant changes in production (i.e., full conversion to
alternative fuel production) or change in function (conversion to a transfer station or closure with or without
site redevelopment). The strong climate and clean energy laws in Washington require reductions in GHG
emissions from Washington’s largest sources of emissions (through the Climate Commitment Act) and
statutory requirements to reach net-zero emissions across the economy by 2050.
While significant levels of Washington’s refined fuels are exported out of the state (approximately 40% are sold
for end use outside Washington on average), at present many of the markets for these products are in states
or regions that have their own regulations that will involve a transition to net-zero on a similar timeframe. As
such, this study anticipates that net-zero limits may be associated with approximately 95% reduced demand
for conventional petroleum products, with only a small proportion finding a market in regions without similar
GHG reduction requirements. As described below, many alternative fuel products may be produced instead of
conventional petroleum, including renewable diesel, alternative jet fuel and others. However, anticipated
feedstock and energy limitations make it unlikely that all five refineries will fully replace their current
production capacity by 2050. As such, a change in either product or function, including the possibility of
closure, is plausible at Washington’s refineries in the longer term.
7. Washington’s refineries are moderately well-positioned to produce
alternative fuels, though likely at levels lower than would fully replace
the current refinery capacity.
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This study assesses the competitive position of Washington's refineries to produce alternative fuels as
"moderate." Review of relevant data indicates that significant levels of alternative fuel may be produced in
Washington in the medium and longer terms, with ranges between 1.7 billion gallons a year and 6.5 billion
gallons a year (though these production levels may occur at refineries or other sites2). The potential for these
fuels to be produced at refineries is significant: research indicates it can be cost-effective to produce
alternative fuels at an existing refinery site compared to another type of existing facility or building an entirely
new facility. The capital equipment, workforce skills and other aspects of the operations of refineries makes
them well positioned to produce some levels of alternative fuels, such as alternative diesel or alternative jet
fuel, in co-production or conversion to alternative fuel production. Washington’s refineries are already taking
steps toward the production of alternative fuels. One example is the production of renewable diesel at BP’s
Cherry Point refinery since 2018 and the expansion of production in 2022. Additionally, the recent grant of
almost $27 million to support production of sustainable aviation fuel at BP’s Cherry Point refinery via a grant
through the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Fueling Aviation’s Sustainable Transition via Sustainable
Aviation Fuel (FAST-SAF) sends a positive signal about the future of alternative fuels. At the date of publication
of this report, the grant agreement between BP and the FAA has not been finalized.3
There are, however, limitations to this potential, because Washington may not have sufficient access to either
the feedstocks or the clean electricity needed to produce alternative fuels. It may be more cost-effective for
businesses in Washington to import alternative fuels from regions with more access to those feedstocks and
electricity. Commerce's Green Hydrogen and Renewable Fuels legislative report indicate that 2.5GW of
renewable electricity capacity may be needed to produce renewable liquid fuels by 2035 (for aviation as well as
on-road and maritime fuels). Both this study and RMI's recent Maritime Decarbonization report indicate that
Washington may import more of these fuels than it is able to produce, due to constraints related to clean, low-
carbon electricity and transmission capacity. In addition, significant costs will be required to add co-
processing or convert fully to refining alternative fuels.
Chapter 3 presents data and analysis which contribute to Key Findings 5-7.
8. Alternative industries for impacted workers exist in Pierce, Skagit
and Whatcom counties, though at present these opportunities are not
sufficient for scenarios where refinery workforce declines
significantly.
8.1 Apprenticeships and on-the-job training (OJT) are commonly used at refineries, but many workers lack
formal credentials and certifications. This could make transferring to alternative industries difficult.
8.2 Refinery workers have hard and soft skills which could be valuable in other professions.
8.3 There are industries in nearby counties which could be suitable for displaced refinery workers, though
there are not currently a sufficient number of such opportunities to make up for a significant employment
decline at refineries.
8.4 Displaced employees are likely to experience lower levels of pay upon transitioning to careers outside
of the refinery industry.
The 2,200 permanent workers in Washington’s five refineries may be impacted by declining production or
changes in product or function at refineries and face the possibility of job loss in future years. Additionally,
2 Companies including Twelve plan to produce SAF as an e-fuel at a new facility in Moses Lake.
3 Press Releases | News | U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington (senate.gov)
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contract workers who regularly work significant hours at the refineries would also be impacted. Opportunities
to employ these workers in similar skill-level jobs, ideally with commensurate levels of pay, benefits and safe
working conditions will be important to support the livelihoods of these workers and sustain economic activity
in Pierce, Skagit, and Whatcom Counties. At present, alternative industries exist in these counties that provide
a relatively good match with many core refinery worker skillsets. Some examples include the utilities and food
manufacturing sectors. However, these jobs exist at lower levels than the total refinery workforce, and several
sectors such as pulp and paper mills are demonstrating decline rather than growth. As such, in the case of
significant workforce declines such as those modeled for 95% reduction of refinery activity, there are not
currently sufficient opportunities in the counties where the refineries are located. This may create significant
challenges for workers and their families who would otherwise not seek to relocate to another county. This
challenge is particularly acute for tribal citizens strongly connected to their specific tribal lands and the
practices and culture connecting them to these particular lands, and are therefore not likely to move to a new
region. This disparity highlights the need for a plan to transition workers.
Chapter 4 provides data and analysis contributing to Key Finding 8.
9. Alternative uses for refinery sites exist, with industrial uses likely to
be more feasible than non-industrial.
9.1 Depending on the type and extent of contamination, remediation may be very expensive, time-intensive
and require a variety of remediation methods.
9.2 The Department of Ecology oversees remediation efforts, and legal and financial obligations usually fall
on current or previous site owners. The Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA) can also help determine liable
parties or fund cleanup processes.
9.3 There are several potential future uses for refinery sites which present varying levels of economic,
health, and environmental benefits and burdens.
9.4 Some scenarios are more feasible than others, depending on contamination levels and other factors.
This study evaluates potential alternative future uses for refinery sites in the event of closure. These include
energy industrial, non-energy industrial, industrial symbiosis, heavy manufacturing and return to tribal
ownership (including return to non-industrial state). Each of these potential uses could bring economic
benefits by providing new operations at these sites and would need to be developed in ways that comply with
state climate and clean energy laws, and as such, may have potential as longer-term opportunities beyond
2050. However, it is important to recognize that alternative uses will still have environmental impacts that
must be considered. A full cost-benefit analysis of the GHG and other impacts of alternative uses is outside
the scope of this report and would need to be assessed on a case-by-case basis and consider the specific
details of any proposed project
The energy industrial category in particular aligns well with many aspects of existing refinery capital
equipment and workforce skillsets and competencies. However, there are significant challenges that would
need to be overcome for refinery sites to be cleaned up and developed for these alternative uses, including
remediation costs (which vary depending on classification of use, such as industrial or residential) and lengthy
timelines for siting and permitting of new operations which, in some circumstances, can last a decade or
more.
10. Refinery operations contribute to human health and environmental
harms, with associated economic costs, impacting their local
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 11
economies, environments, neighboring tribal nations, and surrounding
communities.
10.1 Proximity to refineries (as with most heavy industrial facilities) is linked to higher risks of cancer,
respiratory issues, cardiovascular diseases, neurological damage, and reproductive health problems.
10.2 Pollutants emitted at these sites include benzene, sulfur dioxides, formaldehyde, and particulate
matter, contributing to smog, ozone formation, and other environmental hazards.
10.3 Many overburdened populations are located near refineries and face disproportionate pollutant
exposure. The Environmental Health Disparities map highlights the increased risk to vulnerable
communities in these areas.
Refineries impact the local environment and communities in a wide variety of ways. While this document is
primarily an economic impacts study, legislative direction included requirements to consider health and
environmental impacts, tribal rights and resources and more. When considering health impacts, this study
assesses air quality impacts of refinery operations, as well as issues including water pollution and its impact
on local marine life and communities which depend on marine life in their diets. Tribal communities with
traditional practices of catching and consuming fish and seafood can be among those most directly impacted
by water pollution, which limits the safe consumption of seafood.
Chapter 5 presents data, case studies, and additional information informing Key Findings 9-10.
Full proviso text
The text of the proviso states that the study must include:
(i) An overview of Washington's five oil refineries including: Location, age, workforce demographics, direct and
indirect jobs connected with the industry, health and environmental impacts, local tax revenues paid by refineries,
and primary and secondary products and markets;
(ii) A summary of projected scenarios for Washington refineries' primary markets, taking into account realistic, real
world outcomes, given existing mandated decarbonization targets, feedstock availability, and statutes that impact
Washington refinery products;
(iii) A summary of anticipated short-term, medium-term, and long-term economic viability of the five Washington oil
refineries based on refinery product demand forecasts as outlined in (b)(ii) of this subsection;
(iv) A forecast of direct and indirect effects of the projected petroleum decline, including indirect employment
impacts, the geography of those impacts, and impacts to local jurisdictions, utilities, ports, and special purpose
districts from reduction in tax revenues, and impacts to local nonprofits and community programs from the refining
industry;
(v) An assessment of potential future uses of refinery sites that include energy industrial, nonenergy industrial, heavy
manufacturing, and industrial symbiosis, including an assessment of previously closed refinery sites throughout the
United States and current use of those sites. Each potential future use shall be assessed and include data regarding:
Greenhouse gas emissions, local pollution and environmental health, direct and indirect employment benefits,
estimated tax impacts, potential costs to Washington residents, and feasibility based on relevant market trends; and
an assessment of previously closed refinery sites throughout the United States and current use of those sites;
(vi) The competitive position of Washington refineries to produce alternative fuels consistent with Washington's
emissions reductions defined in RCW 70A.45.020, the anticipated regional, national, and global demand for these
fuels between 2023 and 2050; and the likely employment, tax, environmental, cultural, and treaty impacts of refinery
conversion to these alternative fuels;
(vii) An identification of refinery workers' skillsets, potential alternative sectors and industries of employment, an
assessment and comparison of total compensation and benefit packages including retirement and health care
programs of current and alternative jobs, impacts to apprenticeship utilization, and the current and expected
availability of those jobs in Pierce, Skagit, and Whatcom counties;
(viii) A land and water remediation analysis; including cost estimates, current terrestrial and aquatic pollution
mapping, an overview of existing policies and regulations that determine accountability for cleanup and identifies
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 12
gaps that may leave local and state taxpayers financially liable, and an assessment of the workforce and skills
required for potential cleanup;
(ix) A summary of existing petroleum refining capacity and trends in Washington, the United States, and
internationally; and
(x) An assessment of decline or loss of tax revenues supporting state environmental programs including the model
toxics control act, the pollution liability insurance agency, and other programs, as well as the decline or loss of
transportation gas tax revenues.
A statement on the use of public data
It is important to note that the data used in this study is all publicly available. The act of collecting or sharing
refinery-specific business information is restricted by laws designed to protect confidential business
information and prevent anti-competitive behavior. As such, the study relies exclusively on the best available
public data.
The refineries operating in Washington are independent businesses each with their own operational
requirements, including required returns on investment or assets or overall corporate strategies to respond to
a changing global market for refined products. The analyses conducted here do not rely on any private
company data and assumptions made may not align with corporate strategies or interests.
Introduction
There are five oil refineries located in Washington:
1. Par Pacific/U.S Oil in Tacoma,
2. Marathon Anacortes,
3. HF Sinclair Anacortes,
4. Phillips 66 Ferndale and
5. BP Cherry Point.
These refineries are located across Pierce, Skagit and Whatcom Counties.
Washington’s refineries make significant contributions to the state and regional economy. In total, the
refineries have the capacity to produce approximately 665,000 barrels of oil per day (for reference, one barrel
is approximately 42 gallons). The refineries support approximately 2,200 permanent jobs and 2,000 contracted
jobs per year. The largest by volume products Washington’s refineries manufacture and sell include gasoline,
diesel, jet fuel, renewable diesel and asphalt.
The current economic impacts of the refineries occur in ways that generate both benefits and costs to
Washington, its residents, and the environment. Economic benefits include the wages, purchases from local
businesses, and tax revenues paid by the refineries. Economic costs include health costs from air and water
pollution of refineries.
Projected scenarios
This study develops and evaluates eight potential future scenarios that Washington’s refineries may pursue in
the short term (2026), medium term (2035) and long term (2050). These scenarios are more likely to occur one
after another rather than in isolation. The earlier scenarios are more likely in the short term, whereas the later
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ones are more likely in the long term. Scenarios are described as they may pertain to an individual refinery. It is
not assumed that a single scenario would apply to all five refineries concurrently; the five refineries could be
involved in different scenarios during the same timeframe.
The scenarios evaluated in this study are:
Scenario Most likely timeframe(s)
1. Minor demand changes; shift in product mix Short to medium term
2. Minor demand changes; increase in exports Short to medium term
3. Change in products: Joint venture/Co-Location Most likely in medium or long term
4. Change in products: Fully alternative fuel production Most likely in medium or long term
5. Change in function: Tank farm or storage facility Most likely in medium or long term
6. Change in function and products: Combination of Scenarios 3
Most likely in medium or long term
and 5
7. Change in function: Closure and redevelopment Most likely in medium or long term
8. Change in function: Closure and no redevelopment Most likely in medium or long term
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 14
Chapter 1: Refineries in Washington
Key Finding 1. Washington’s refineries are significant local employers that provide high wages compared to
other industries in the communities where they are located.
1.1 Refineries employ a large number of workers – approximately 2,200 permanent employees and
2,000 contract workers. Many of these workers are represented by unions.
Key Finding 2. Washington’s refineries pay significant levels of state and local taxes, which fund public
services, pollution prevention, and environmental remediation, among other things.
Key Finding 3. Tribes with and without treaty rights and tribal citizens have crucial perspectives on the
impacts of refining in Washington, and their input must be a central component of discussions and
evaluations regarding current and future refinery operations.
3.1 Washington's refineries are located on or near tribal lands, including usual and accustomed
territories.
3.2 Refinery operations have infringed on tribal treaty rights including harvesting rights, land rights, and
cultural practices.
3.3 Refineries have damaged tribes’ environmental health by tainting traditional food sources and
causing dangerous spills and flares.
Refinery History in the State
Background
Washington's oil refining industry dates back to the late 19th century. Due largely to the abundant crude oil
resources found in Canada and Alaska, Northwest Washington's access to strategic marine shipping networks
and supportive land-based transportation infrastructure, Washington quickly became a pivotal hub for refining
operations on the West Coast of the United States. Discoveries of oil in Alberta, Canada in 1947 then spurred
the construction of pipeline networks across Canada and the Pacific Northwest to deliver crude oil from the
source fields to the refineries in the 1950s. Further oil extraction on Alaska's North Slope prompted the
building of the BP Cherry Point refinery in the 1970s, one of the nation's newest refineries.4
Overview
The roots of Washington's petroleum refining industry can be traced back to the 1850s, when the first
American oil refinery was built in Pittsburgh.5 As population and economic development grew westward during
the 19th and 20th centuries and new discoveries of crude oil resources were made, refining operations spread
across the inland and coastal Western U.S. Also during this time, the federal government facilitated a robust
treaty campaign to seize lands inhabited by native and indigenous peoples across the west, including in
Washington. In Washington, the 1854 Treaty of Medicine Creek6 and the 1855 Treaty of Point Elliott7 ceded
lands that would later become the sites of refinery operations to the United States government. The refineries
4 Washington Research Council Economic Profile, “The Economic Contribution of Washington State’s Petroleum Refining Industry in
2019”, June 2021
5 Sulman, Michael A, "The Short Happy Life of Petroleum in Pittsburgh: A Paradox in Industrial History", Pennsylvania History: A Journal
of Mid-Atlantic Studies, Pennsylvania State University, January 1966.
6 "Treaty of Medicine Creek, 1854", from Washington Governor's Office of Indian Affairs, Resources, accessed September 16, 2024.
7 "Treaty of Point Elliot, 1855", from Washington Governor's Office of Indian Affairs, Resources, , accessed September 16, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 15
built on March Point in Anacortes are situated on Swinomish land. The refineries built in Ferndale and Blaine
are situated on Lummi land, with the Tacoma refinery located on Puyallup land.
With the discovery of oil fields in California and Alberta, the demand for regional refining capacity grew.
Between 1954 and 1957, a total of four refineries were created in Washington,8 with an initial capacity of
104,000 barrels per day by 1958.9The fifth and final refinery opened in 1971, adding an additional capacity of
100,000 barrels per day.10
The establishment of refineries in Washington was driven by both economic development efforts and
geographic strategy, as well as growing demand for petroleum. In the early 20th century, Washington's
economy was heavily reliant on industries like fishing and logging. However, by the 1950s, these industries
were in decline.11 Local communities sought out new sources of economic growth, including the development
of petroleum refineries.12 The construction of Shell's refinery at March Point in 1953 provided an economic
boost in Anacortes, followed by General Petroleum's refinery in Ferndale in 1954.
The choice of locations for these refineries was influenced by the discovery of oil in Alberta and the
completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline in 1953.13 The Trans Mountain Pipeline enabled the direct transport
of crude oil from Edmonton to Washington. The Puget Sound area's proximity to these new oil sources made it
a well-suited location for refining operations from a business perspective. Additionally, these refineries allowed
Washington to become less dependent on oil shipments from California, which was struggling to meet
demand at the time.
However, these decisions were not just logistical in nature, but also a result of environmental racism.
Environmental racism describes the systematic and intentional placement of environmental hazards in native
communities and communities of color.14 Alongside redlining, intentional policies, regulations, and laws have
placed additional burdens of industrial pollution on these communities. These policies create greater health
inequities, while affected communities have been historically excluded from decision making processes about
these environmental hazards, or less enforcement of environmental regulations. As a result, native
communities and communities of color experience a variety of side effects. This includes higher rates of
asthma, disproportionate exposure to pollution from all sources and other strains. Vulnerable communities,
such as native communities, were seen as a "path of least resistance"15 over communities with more power
and influence to defer locally unwanted land uses.16 While these facilities were sited decades ago, their
placement has continuing negative impacts on adjacent communities. Living within 10 miles of a petroleum
8 Gustafson, Zane and Eric de Place. "The History of Northwest Refineries", Sightline Institute, September 22, 2021.
9 Hennig, C.E., "Petroleum Refineries, Including Cracking Plants in the United States, January 1, 1958." U.S. Bureau of Mines, Page 10.
10 BP, "bp in Washington Fact Sheet" Updated September 2024.
11 Center for the Study of the Pacific Northwest, "II. Seeing the Forest for the Trees: Placing Washington's Forests in Historical Context";
Northwest Power and Conservation Council, "Commercial Fishing"
12 Lunsford, Bret, "Intro to Anacortes History", City of Anacortes, Accessed June 28, 2024.
13 TransMountain, "Our History", Accessed July 12, 2024; The Canadian Press, "Timeline: Key dates in the history of the Trans Mountain
pipeline", Published October 3, 2018, updated June 18, 2019.
14 Augusta University Online, "Environmental Racism: Definition, Examples, and Prevention" Environmental Racism: Definition, Examples
and Prevention – Campus Insider
15 Mohai P, Pellow D, Roberts JT. Environmental justice. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 2009;1(2009):405–430.
16 Vickery, J., & Hunter, L. M. (2016). Native Americans: Where in Environmental Justice Research?. Society & natural resources, 29(1),
36–52. https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2015.1045644
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 16
refinery has been linked to increased risks of cancer,17asthma, birth defects, neurological damage,
cardiovascular damage and blood disorders.18
The refining industry continued to expand in Washington in the 1960s, as refineries benefitted from access to
Canadian and Alaskan crude oil supplies. In particular, the discovery of oil at Prudhoe Bay in 1968 helped drive
the expansion of refinery operations in Washington. The ARCO Cherry Point Refinery was built in response to
the discovery and developed primarily to process Alaskan North Slope crude oil.19 The now-BP Cherry Point
facility has since diversified its capabilities, utilizing crude oil from around the world. The facility became the
largest in the state and cemented Washington's role as a key refining hub on the West Coast. By 1982, the
refining capacity at the five major refineries had increased to more than double 1958 levels, at nearly 408,000
barrels per stream day.20 Since then, it has climbed to 674,500 barrels per stream day in 2024.21
Washington has the fifth highest oil refining capacity of any U.S. state, with a current total refining capacity of
approximately 665,000 barrels per day (bpd). States with a larger refining capacity, in ascending order, include
Illinois, California, Louisiana and Texas. Washington has a location quotient of 1.54 for the Petroleum
Refineries industry. Location quotient is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. This
means that the Washington region has 54% more than expected employment in petroleum refineries,
compared to the nation. In order of greatest capacity to least, the refineries in Washington include:
1. BP Cherry Point Refinery situated near Blaine,
2. HF Sinclair Anacortes Refinery,
3. Marathon Anacortes Refinery,
4. Phillips 66 Ferndale Refinery, and
5. Par Pacific - U.S. Oil Tacoma Refinery.
17 Stephen B Williams, Yong Shan, Usama Jazzar, Preston S Kerr, Ikenna Okereke, V Suzanne Klimberg, Douglas S Tyler, Nagireddy
Putluri, David S Lopez, John D Prochaska, Cornelis Elferink, Jacques G Baillargeon, Yong-Fang Kuo, Hemalkumar B Mehta, Proximity to
Oil Refineries and Risk of Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis, JNCI Cancer Spectrum, Volume 4, Issue 6, December 2020, pkaa088,
18 California Government- Proposition 65 Fact Sheets, "Petroleum Products- Environmental Exposure from Refineries".
19 Office of Management, "March 13, 1968: Oil discovered on Alaska's North Slope.", U.S. Department of Energy; Alaska Business
Magazine, "Where Does All That Oil Go?", October 2, 2018.
20 Stream day refers to the maximum number of barrels of input that a distillation facility can process with a 24-hour period when
running at full capacity under optimal crude and product slate conditions with no allowance for downtime. This number is often higher
than barrels per calendar day, which factors in limitations like input quality, environmental constraints, downtime for maintenance or
repairs. Stream day capacity is typically about 6% higher than calendar day capacity.
21 U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Washington Refinery Operating Atmospheric Crude Oil Distillation Capacity as of January 1",
Released June 14, 2024.
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Figure 1: Map of Washington oil refineries
All five refineries produce gasoline, diesel oil and jet fuel as major products. Figure 2 shows the overall
trajectory of crude oil distillation capacity in Washington since 1990. The gap results from the Energy
Information Administration-820 Refinery Capacity Survey not being completed in 1996 and 1998.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 18
Washington Refinery Operable Atmospheric
Crude Oil Distillation Capacity
700000
Barrels per Calander Day
648200
650000
600000
550000
500000
450000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Year 1990-2024
Figure 2: EIA, Washington refinery annual operable atmospheric crude oil distillation
capacity as of January 1 (barrels per calendar day), 1990 to 2024. Data updated June
2024.22
Table 1 contains the barrel per day crude oil capacity, approximate full time employees and 2022 greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions for each refineries. These numbers are provided to help demonstrate the differences in
operation capacity and workforce at each refinery. Within this report, all modeling is done at a statewide level,
with all five refineries homogenized. This is due to the need to assess and report only public data for this
study, as well as the focus on reporting high level economic analysis rather than specific findings at the
refinery level. Crude oil capacity ranges from 42,000 to 250,000 barrels per day, with full time employees
ranging from approximately 190 employees to 800 employees. Table 1 also contains the direct facility
emissions and supplied fuel emissions of each refinery in metric million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Petroleum refining, along with other fuel suppliers and power plants, are some of the top emitters in
Washington.23
Table 1: Overview of refinery capacity, employment and greenhouse gas emissions.
2022 total facility
Barrel per Supplied Fuel Emissions
Greenhouse Gas
Calendar Day Approximate Full in million metric tons
Refinery Emissions in
Crude Oil Time Employees * CO2e **
million metric
Capacity Total Emissions Biogenic Carbon Dioxide
tons CO2e **
Phillips 66,
105,00024 240 0.718 8.264 .329
Ferndale
Marathon
(Tesoro), 119,00025 400 1.37 7.609 .325
Anacortes
22 Washington Refinery Operable Atmospheric Crude Oil Distillation Capacity as of January 1 (Barrels per Calendar Day)
23 Data.wa.gov, GHG Reporting Program Publication.
24 Sourced via Washington State Department of Ecology, Phillips 66 Refinery - Washington State Department of Ecology
25 Sourced via Marathon website, Anacortes Refinery | Marathon Petroleum Refineries
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2022 total facility
Barrel per Supplied Fuel Emissions
Greenhouse Gas
Calendar Day Approximate Full in million metric tons
Refinery Emissions in
Crude Oil Time Employees * CO2e **
million metric
Capacity Total Emissions Biogenic Carbon Dioxide
tons CO2e **
HF Sinclair,
149,00026 470 1.9 2.522 .094
Anacortes
Par Pacific- U.S.
42,00027 190 0.128 2.442 .139
Oil, Tacoma
BP, Cherry Point,
250,00028 800 2.12 5.65 .183
Blaine
Total 665,000 2,100 6.2 26.49 1.072
*Approximate Full Time Employees sourced from Washington State Department of Ecology Industrial facilities permits profiles.29
** Carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, both direct facility emissions and supplied fuel emissions sourced via the Washington
Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program30
As of the 2021 report by the Washington Research Council31, using 2019 numbers, 53.2% of petroleum
products refined in Washington were sold in the state, 39.5% of products were sold domestically, with the
remaining 7.3% exported to foreign markets. The primary export markets in 2019 were Mexico (39.9%), Canada
(30.3%) and Peru (3.8%).
Similarly, this report has aggregated available emitted pollutants data on each refinery. Four of the refineries
report emitted pollutants to the Northwest Clean Air Agency, which makes this information publicly available.
However, the Par Pacific- U.S. Oil refinery reports to the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency, which does not publicly
report this data. As a result, we sourced comparable values where possible. This report does not include
information about the permitted emissions of each refinery.
Table 2: Comparison of emitted pollutants from each refinery.
Pollutant Par
Phillips HF BP Cherry
(Tons Marathon Pacific- Health and Environmental Impacts of Pollutants
66 Sinclair Point
per year) U.S. Oil*
PM10 is airborne particulate matter with a diameter of 10
microns or less and are small enough to pass through the throat
and nose, entering the lungs. Exposure can lead to reduced lung
PM10 31 146 210 NA 138 function, worsening of respiratory diseases, faster disease
progression, reduced life expectancy, and increased
hospitalization and emergency department visits. Children,
asthmatics, and older adults are particularly susceptible.32
26 Sourced via HF Sinclair website, HF Sinclair Corporation | Operations - Facilities - U.S. - Anacortes, WA
27 Sourced via Par Pacific- U.S. Oil website, Washington | Par Pacific
28 Sourced via bp website, Refineries | What we do | bp America
29 Industrial facilities permits - Washington State Department of Ecology
30 Data.wa.gov, GHG Reporting Program Publication
31 Washington Research Council Economic Profile, “The Economic Contribution of Washington State’s Petroleum Refining Industry in
2019”, June 2021
32 California Air Resources Board, "Particulate Matter and Health Fact Sheet", March 20, 2023.
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Pollutant Par
Phillips HF BP Cherry
(Tons Marathon Pacific- Health and Environmental Impacts of Pollutants
66 Sinclair Point
per year) U.S. Oil*
Sulfur oxides can harm the human respiratory system, and
contribute to particulate matter pollution. At high
concentrations, sulfur oxides can harm trees and plants by
SO2 28 81 213 NA 854
damaging foliage and decreasing growth, and contribute to acid
rain. Additionally, it can contribute to reduced visibility or haze.
33
Nitrogen oxides are a mixture of gases composed of nitrogen
and oxygen. Exposure to high levels can damage respiratory
NOx 681 1873 1316 430** 1935
airways, and contact with skin or eyes can cause burns. They
can contribute to acid rain and reduced visibility. 34
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are a group of chemicals
that can vaporize into air. They can cause eye, nose, and throat
irritation, headaches and loss of coordination, nausea, and
VOC 603 804 492 NA 419
damage to the liver, kidneys, or central nervous system. Some
VOCs are suspected or proven carcinogens. 35Benzene, a VOC, is
a known carcinogen resulting from petroleum refining. 36
Carbon monoxide is a pollutant that reduces the ability of blood
to carry oxygen. Exposure can result in fatigue, headaches,
confusion and dizziness. People with cardiovascular disease
CO 162 464 604 NA 456 with short term exposure may experience chest pain and further
decreased exercise tolerance. It can also participate in chemical
reactions that produce ozone, and is classified as a short-lived
climate forcing agent. 37
Depending on the concentration of carbon dioxide and length of
exposure, possible symptoms include headache, drowsiness,
1,907,8 confusion, increased cardiac output, elevated blood pressure,
CO2 718,028 1,370,882 127,073** 2,123,675
58 and increased arrhythmias. 38 Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
acts as a greenhouse gas and helps accelerate climate change.
It also contributes to ocean acidification. 39
Methane can contribute to poor air quality by contributing to the
formation of ground level ozone and particulate pollution, which
can damage airways, aggravate lung disease, increase rates of
Methane 2,004** 2,455** 6,435** 817** 6,448** preterm birth, heighten stroke risk, and increase cardiovascular
morbidity and mortality. 40 Methane has a shorter atmospheric
lifetime than carbon dioxide, but absorbs more energy while it
exists in the atmosphere, making it a potent greenhouse gas.41
33 Environmental protection Agency, "Sulfur Dioxide Basics", January 31, 2024.
34 Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR). 2002. Managing Hazardous Materials Incidents. Volume III - Medical
Management Guidelines for Acute Chemical Exposures: Nitrogen Oxides. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,
Public Health Service.
35 Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, "Air Pollutant- Volatile organic compounds (VOCs)"
36 Edokpolo, B., Yu, Q. J., & Connell, D. (2015). Health risk assessment for exposure to benzene in petroleum refinery
environments. International journal of environmental research and public health, 12(1), 595–610.
37 California Air Resources Board, "Carbon Monoxide and Health".
38 FSIS Environmental, Safety and Health Group, "Carbon dioxide Health Hazard Information Sheet".
39 Lindsey, Rebecca, "Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide", NOAA Climate.gov, April 9, 2024.
40 Environmental Defense Fund, "how Methane Impacts Health".
41 International Energy Agency, "Global Methane Tracker 2022- Methane and climate change"
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Pollutant Par
Phillips HF BP Cherry
(Tons Marathon Pacific- Health and Environmental Impacts of Pollutants
66 Sinclair Point
per year) U.S. Oil*
*Par Pacific numbers are from data.wa.gov. This data is limited but provides the most applicable source for emissions of the U.S.
Oil Tacoma refinery.42 For consistency, we pulled methane emissions from this same portal for other refineries as well.
**Numbers are in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e)
An Overview of Petroleum Refining
Petroleum refining is the process of turning crude oil into usable products. According to the Energy
Information Administration (EIA) oil refining includes three basic steps: Separation, Conversion and
Treatment.43 In the separation stage, oil is pumped through hot furnaces where the resulting liquids and vapors
get discharged into distillation units. The distillation units’ purpose is to separate the crude oil into broad
categories or “fractions”44 based off the product’s boiling point. As the crude separates, different products boil
off at different temperatures, refiners then recover these products ‘Lighter’ products, with lower boiling points,
are recovered at lower temperatures. ‘Heavier’ products, with higher boiling points are recovered at higher
temperatures. Lighter products separate to the top of the distillation unit, and heavier products settle at the
bottom.
After the products have been separated by the distillation process, they enter their next basic step, the
conversion stage. Heavy, less valuable product can be converted into lighter, more valuable products through a
process called “Cracking.” Cracking uses heat, pressure, catalysts and sometimes hydrogen to crack heavy
hydrocarbon molecules into lighter ones.45 This helps refineries to maximize the value of the crude oil that is
processed.
Finally, the products are put through the treatment stage where the finishing touches are applied. For gasoline,
different streams of products are mixed to form the end product. Once each product is treated differently, they
are stored on-site before being transported via pipeline, rail, truck or ship to off-site storage or their destination.
Washington is part of Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 5. PADDs are geographic groups
of the 50 states and the District of Columbia divided into five districts to help coordinate the production and
use of petroleum across the country. PADDs were intended to help ration gasoline during World War II.
Currently, PADDs help users of EIA petroleum data assess regional petroleum product supplies.46 PADD 5
includes Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona and Alaska.
Jobs in the Refining Industry
The refineries in Washington serve as major sources of employment in the regional economy, providing
employment opportunities and producing products to support various sectors such as transportation,
42 Data.wa.gov, GHG Reporting Program Publication.
43 “U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis.” Refining crude oil - the refining process - U.S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA). Accessed September 10, 2024.
44 Crude oil distillation and the definition of refinery capacity - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Accessed September 10,
2024.
45 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). "Glossary- Catalytic Cracking", Accessed September 10, 2024.
46 “Padd Regions Enable Regional Analysis of Petroleum Product Supply and Movements.” U.S. Energy Information Administration
(EIA), February 2012.
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manufacturing and agriculture. Refineries play a crucial role in meeting demand for petroleum products in
Washington and beyond, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and heating oil.
Washington employs approximately 2,200 petroleum refinery47 workers of the 62,135 employed across the US.
Within the past decade, employment Washington's refineries increased by 290 jobs. This is a 1.4% annual
increase in the last 10 years, compared to a 1.4% decrease nationally. The average annual wage per refinery
worker in Washington is $185,973, which is greater than the national average wage of $169,167 for the same
industry position. This wage represents a 2.8% average annual increase from the last 10 years.48 This is the
average pay across all refinery occupations, and therefore may be skewed upward by high wages for
administration.
We identify key occupations within the refining industry in Error! Reference source not found., ranked by e
stimated proportion of total workforce, along with select demographics. We used the Bureau of Labor
Statistics' six-digit 2018 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code system. SOC codes group
occupations by similar job duties, and in some cases skills, education or training. For many of these
occupations, a majority of workers are between 35-64 years old. Petroleum refinery workers frequently work
for their entire career in a single facility or company. Many of these positions require a high school diploma or
GED for entry-level work and have significant on-the-job training (OJT). Four of Washington's five refineries
employ union workers. Unionized facilities across all industries generally have higher pay rates49 and safer
conditions at work sites50 compared to non-union facilities. All refineries employ union contractors. Workers in
petroleum refining have higher earnings than other industries,51 in part due to the dangerous nature of
petroleum refining and specialized skillset required.52 Error! Reference source not found. also provides the a
verage annual wages for the occupations within the petroleum refining industry in Washington. These
occupational wages were between 0.5% and 51% higher than occupational wages for all industries in
Washington, with the exception of construction laborers.
Table 3: Occupations in the petroleum refining industry. Data from BLS and Chmura,
Q4 2023.
Leading Age Percentage of
Average Annual Percentage of
Range of Occupation in
Employment in Wages for Washington
Occupation SOC Code Occupation in Washington
Washington Industry in Occupation that
Washington (in Identified as
Washington is Male
years old) White
Petroleum Pump
System Operators,
51-8093 309 $97,100 70% 45 to 54 80%
Refinery Operators
and Gaugers
Mixing and
51-9023 144 $62,600 83% 45 to 54 64%
Blending Machine
47 Petroleum refining falls under the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code 32411, which is used to compare
industry and occupational data.
48 JobsEQ Industry Spotlight Report, Petroleum Refining as of Q4 2023.
49 Bureau of Labor Statistics, “News Release: Union Members 2023”, January 23, 2024.
50 Frank Manzo IV, Michael Jekot, and Robert Bruno, "ilepi-pmcr-unions-and-construction-health-and-safety-final.pdf", November 30,
2021
51 Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Occupational Employment and Wages, May 2023 51-8093 Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refiner
Operators, and Gaugers".
52 Union of Concerned Scientists, "Oil Refineries: A Deadly Industry", September 26, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 23
Leading Age Percentage of
Average Annual Percentage of
Range of Occupation in
Employment in Wages for Washington
Occupation SOC Code Occupation in Washington
Washington Industry in Occupation that
Washington (in Identified as
Washington is Male
years old) White
Setters, Operators
and Tenders
First-Line
Supervisors of
51-1011 117 $122,100 77% 45 to 54 77%
Production and
Operating Workers
Industrial
Machinery 49-9041 94 $110,200 96% 55 to 64 81%
Mechanics
Heavy and Tractor-
Trailer Truck 53-3032 63 $66,300 93% 45 to 54 76%
Drivers
Laborers and
Freight, Stock and
53-7062 50 $57,500 76% 25 to 34 71%
Material Movers,
Hand
Inspectors, Testers,
Sorters, Samplers 51-9061 42 $88,900 62% 45 to 54 70%
and Weighers
Construction
47-2061 38 $57,700 96% 35 to 44 79%
Laborers
Industrial
Production 11-3051 36 $155,400 82% 35 to 44 79%
Managers
Chemical Plant and
51-8091 36 $82,100 70% 35 to 44 80%
System Operators
Remaining
Component 1,259 $112,300 -- -- --
Occupations53
Total 2,187
We completed further analysis to analyze the top two occupations' employment figures and participating
industries. This was to identify potential job loss and growth as refineries transition to alternative operations,
which we elaborate on in Chapter 4 of this report.
The highest employed category is Petroleum Pump System Operator, Refinery Operator and Gauger. Within
this occupation, 411 employees (69.3%) are in the industry of Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing,
followed by Management of Companies and Enterprises (39 employees, 6.6%) and Other Pipeline
Transportation (34 employees, 5.8%).
53 We condensed occupations with fewer than 36 workers into a remaining component occupations line for clarity and brevity.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 24
Table 4: Employment of petroleum pump system operators, refinery operators and
gaugers by industry in Washington.
Percentage of Occupation 10-Year Projected
Industry Employment
Employed Employment Growth
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 69.3 411 -19
Management of Companies and Enterprises 6.6 39 4
Other Pipeline Transportation 5.8 34 1
Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Merchant
4.7 28 0
Wholesalers
Pipeline Transportation of Crude Oil 2.3 13 1
All Others 11.2 66 4
The second largest employed occupation is that of Mixing and Blending Machine Setter, Operator and Tender.
This occupation also has its greatest employment in the Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing industry.
However, this occupation is significantly more dispersed between industries than Petroleum Pump System
Operators. There are 192 employees in the leading industry of Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing,
with the Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing, Other Food Manufacturing, Animal Food Manufacturing
and Pulp, Paper and Paperboard Mills industries following. This occupation is expected to grow by
approximately 60 employees in Washington in the next decade. Table 5 shows the proportions and count of
employment of this occupation per industry for the top five industries and the 10-year projected employment
change. This table demonstrates that other manufacturing industries are the most immediately transferable
places for many refinery workers skillsets, although some industries are expected to grow while others decline.
Table 5: Employment of mixing and blending machine setters, operators and Tenders
by Industry in Washington.
Percentage of Occupation 10-Year Projected Change
Industry Employment
Employed in Employment
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 8.4% 192 1
Cement and Concrete Product Manufacturing 7.7% 176 0
Other Food Manufacturing 7.5% 171 16
Animal Food Manufacturing 6.9% 156 10
Pulp, Paper and Paperboard Mills 4.9% 111 -23
All Others 64.6% 1473 60
Refinery Profiles
This section contains brief overviews of each refinery, including information about their workforce, products
and local tax information.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 25
Phillips 66
The Phillips 66 refinery is located near Ferndale, Washington. The refinery was established in 1954 and has a
maximum crude oil capacity of 105,000 barrels per day. The workforce at the refinery varies by season and
based on operational cycles. Workers on-site are a mix of company employees, contractors and sub-
contractors. The refinery has approximately 240 full time employees, alongside 200 contractors.54 Full time
jobs at the refinery are widely related to chemical processes, gas processes, pipeline work and oversight,
safety and management of the facility. Contracted jobs are largely related to the cleaning and servicing of
different parts of the facility, as well as implementing upgrades and major repairs onsite.
The refinery produces large quantities of transportation fuels such as gasoline and diesel. They also produce
residual fuel oil, which is supplied to the northwest marine bunker fuel market. These products are moved
throughout the northwest United States by pipelines, barge ships and railcars.
The facility treats wastewater from operations before discharging to the Strait of Georgia. Non-contaminated
wastewater is sent to either Lummi Bay, the Strait of Georgia or a wooded area that feeds a wetland before
going to the Slater Road Ditch. Air quality activities for this refinery are regulated by the Northwest Clean Air
Agency. All water, hazardous waste and cleanup related activities are monitored by the Washington State
Department of Ecology.
The refinery is subject to the same taxes as all other refineries in Washington. The largest collected tax is the
Hazardous Substance Tax (HST). Other taxes include the Business and Occupation (B&O) tax, property tax, Oil
Spill tax, the Petroleum Products tax and the usual sales and use taxes.55 Total property taxes paid for Phillips
66 in 2023 was $3,835,461 for their six company parcels owned and $474,883 in one partner holding parcel.56
Table 6: Phillips 66 Refinery emissions57
Pollution (tons per
Pollutant
year)
PM10 31
SO2 28
NOx 681
VOC 603
CO 162
CO2 718,028
54 Washington Department of Ecology, "Industrial Facilities Permits: Phillips 66 Refinery", Phillips 66 Refinery - Washington State
Department of Ecology
55 Washington Research Council, “The Economic Contribution of Washington State’s Petroleum Refining Industry in 2019” Accessed
September 16th, 2024
56 Whatcom County Assessor’s Office Property Data, https://www.whatcomcounty.us/3869/Property-Data-Downloads
57 NWCAA, Major Businesses. https://nwcleanairwa.gov/permits-and-services/major-sources-of-air-pollution/
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 26
Marathon
The Marathon refinery, which does business under the name Tesoro, is located in Anacortes, Washington.
Marathon acquired Andeavor in 2018, which included the acquisition of the Tesoro refinery in Anacortes. 58 It
began operation in 1995 and has a crude oil capacity of 119,000 barrels per calendar day. The workforce at the
refinery site varies by season and based on operational cycles. Workers on-site are a mix of company
employees, contractors and sub-contractors. The refinery has approximately 400 full time employees,
alongside 200 contractors.59 Full time jobs at the refinery are widely related to chemical processes, gas
processes, pipeline work and oversight, safety and management of the facility. Contracted jobs are largely
related to the cleaning and servicing of different parts of the facility, as well as implementing upgrades and
major repairs onsite.
The refinery produces large quantities of transportation fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. They also
produce residual fuel oil, heavy fuel oil and liquid petroleum gas. These products are moved throughout the
northwest United States by pipelines and marine terminals owned by Marathon. This refinery primarily supplies
products to the Washington and Oregon markets.
The facility treats wastewater from operations before discharging to Fidalgo Bay. Air quality activities for this
refinery are regulated by the Northwest Clean Air Agency. Table utilizes the Northwest Clean Air Agency air
quality emissions report for Tesoro (Marathon) Anacortes Refinery. All water, hazardous waste, and cleanup
related activities are monitored by the Washington State Department of Ecology.
The refinery is subject to the same taxes as all other refineries in Washington. The largest collected tax is the
Hazardous Substance Tax (HST). Other taxes include the Business and Occupation (B&O) tax, Property tax, Oil
Spill tax, the Petroleum Products tax and the usual sales and use taxes. Total property taxes paid by Marathon
in 2023 was $2,411,875 for the 85 parcels owned by the company.60
Table 7: Marathon Refinery emissions61
Pollutant Pollution (tons per year)
PM10 146
SO2 81
NOx 1873
VOC 804
CO 464
CO2 1,370,882
Holly Frontier Sinclair
The Holly Frontier (HF) Sinclair refinery is located in Anacortes, Washington. The refinery became operational
in 1957 and has a crude oil capacity of 149,000 barrels per day. Workers on-site are a mix of company
58 Marathon Petroleum, "History", Our History | Marathon Petroleum Corporation
59 Marathon Refinery Anacortes Branch Website, "Anacortes Refinery Home", Anacortes Refinery | Marathon Petroleum Refineries;
Washington Department of Ecology, "Industrial Facilities Permits: Tesoro Refinery", Tesoro Refinery - Washington State Department of
Ecology
60 Skagit County Geographic Information Services, https://skagitcountywa.gov/Departments/GIS/Digital/parcels.htm
61 NWCAA, Major Businesses. https://nwcleanairwa.gov/permits-and-services/major-sources-of-air-pollution/
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 27
employees, contractors and sub-contractors. The refinery has approximately 532 full time employees,
alongside 400 contractors.62 Full time jobs at the refinery are widely related to chemical processes, gas
processes, pipeline work and oversight, safety and management of the facility. Contracted jobs are largely
related to the cleaning and servicing of different parts of the facility, as well as implementing upgrades and
major repairs onsite.
Major products produced at the refinery include transportation fuels such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and
renewable diesel. Their primary markets are the Pacific Northwest and British Colombia, including major
international air and seaports in the region. The facility treats wastewater from operations before discharging
to Fidalgo Bay. Air quality activities for this refinery are regulated by the Northwest Clean Air Agency. Table
utilizes the Northwest Clean Air Agency air quality emissions report for HF Sinclair Puget Sound Refining in
Anacortes. All water, hazardous waste and cleanup related activities are monitored by the Washington State
Department of Ecology.
The refinery is subject to the same taxes as all other refineries in Washington. The largest collected tax is the
Hazardous Substance Tax (HST). Other taxes include the Business and Occupation (B&O) tax, Property tax, Oil
Spill tax, the Petroleum Products tax and the usual sales and use taxes. Total property taxes paid by HF
Sinclair in 2023 was $3,000,000 for their 38 company parcels.63
Table 8: HF Sinclair emissions64
Pollutant Pollution (tons per year)
PM10 210
SO2 213
NOx 1316
VOC 492
CO 604
CO2 1,907,858
Par Pacific- U.S. Oil & Refining Co.
The U.S. Oil and Refining Co. (U.S. Oil) was acquired by Par Pacific in 2019. The refinery has a total crude oil
capacity of 42,000 barrels per calendar day and is located in Tacoma, Washington. The refinery became
operational in 1952. Workers on-site are a mix of company employees, contractors and sub-contractors. The
refinery has approximately 190 full time employees.65 Full time jobs at the refinery are widely related to
chemical processes, gas processes, pipeline work and oversight, safety and management of the facility.
Contracted jobs are largely related to the cleaning and servicing of different parts of the facility, as well as
implementing upgrades and major repairs onsite.
This refinery's major products include motor, aviation and marine fuels. They are also the leading in-state
provider of asphalt. This refinery sends products through the Pacific and West coast markets, using a marine
62 Washington Department of Ecology, "Industrial Facilities Permits: HF Sinclair Puget Sound Refinery",
https://ecology.wa.gov/regulations-permits/permits-certifications/industrial-facilities-permits/hf-sinclair-puget-sound-refinery
63 Skagit County Geographic Information Services, https://skagitcountywa.gov/Departments/GIS/Digital/parcels.htm
64 NWCAA, Major Businesses. https://nwcleanairwa.gov/permits-and-services/major-sources-of-air-pollution/
65 Washington Department of Ecology, "Industrial Facilities Permits: US Oil & Refining", US Oil & Refining - Washington State Department
of Ecology
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 28
terminal and rail terminal. They also provide jet fuel to Joint Base Lewis-McChord (JBLM) via the McChord
Pipeline, acquired in 1996. Using the McChord Pipeline, U.S. Oil serves as a primary supplier of JBLM.
Wastewater from all operations is treated and sent to Blair Waterway, which empties into Commencement
Bay. Stormwater is sent to the Lincoln Avenue Ditch, the Erdahl Ditch and the City of Tacoma's stormwater
pipe on the Port of Tacoma Road. Air quality activities at this refinery are regulated by the Puget Sound Clean
Air Agency. This agency did not publicly provide the same pollution data available as the Northwest Clean Air
Agency, resulting in a different table (see Table 9). Slightly different publicly available data was found via
Washington's greenhouse gas reporting program publication to address pollution from this refinery.
The refinery is subject to the same taxes as all other refineries in Washington. The largest collected tax is the
Hazardous Substance Tax (HST). Other taxes include the Business and Occupation (B&O) tax, Property tax, Oil
Spill tax, the Petroleum Products tax and the usual sales and use taxes. The refinery paid $2,630,001 in
property taxes for six parcels and paid $451,011 for two waterfront parcels. Total property taxes paid by Par
Pacific in 2023 was $3,081,012 for their eight company parcels owned.66 Per Par Pacific's website, they paid
$9.9 million in city taxes and fees to Tacoma and $17.7 million in state taxes in 2019.
Table 9: Par Pacific- U.S. Oil Refinery emissions 67
Pollutant Pollution (tons per year)
C02 127,073
NOx 430
BP Cherry Point
The BP Cherry Point refinery is located in the Cherry Point Industrial Zone in Blaine, Washington. The refinery
became operational in 1971 and has a total crude oil capacity of 250,000 barrels per calendar day. The refinery
is also capable of co-processing approximately 7,000 barrels per day of renewable diesel. The refinery has
approximately 920 full time employees, around 500 part time employees and 500 contractors on any given
day. During turnarounds, there can be several thousand additional contracted workers on site. Approximately
840 of BP's total full time employees work on refinery related activities. The remaining 80 are enablers of other
BP businesses that work at the Cherry Point office. Full time jobs at the refinery are widely related to chemical
processes, gas processes, pipeline work and oversight, safety and management of the facility. Contracted jobs
are largely related to the cleaning and servicing of different parts of the facility.
This refinery's major products include gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and renewable diesel. This refinery provides jet
fuel to both commercial and military customers, including airports in Seattle, Portland and Vancouver. The
refinery moves products through the Pacific and West coast markets, using trucks, ships and barges and
railcars. The refinery also produces secondary products such as calcined petroleum coke (CPC), natural gas
liquids, elemental sulfur and carbon dioxide. CPC is used for fabrication of anodes in the aluminum electrolysis
process. Natural gas liquids are commonly used for consumer heating and as feedstock for petrochemical
products. Elemental sulfur is used in a broad range of industries, but the single largest end use is in
66 Pierce County Assessor’s Office Property Data, https://www.piercecountywa.gov/736/Data-Downloads
67 Data.wa.gov, GHG Reporting Program Publication, https://data.wa.gov/Natural-Resources-Environment/GHG-Reporting-Program-
Publication/idhm-59de/data
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 29
manufacturing phosphate fertilizers. Carbon dioxide is commonly used for beverage carbonation,
refrigeration/condition for food products and as a working material in fire extinguishing systems.
This facility treats wastewater from operations before discharging to the Strait of Georgia. Stormwater runoff
is treated and sent to Terrell Creek, ultimately ending up in Birch Bay. Air quality activities for this refinery are
regulated by the Northwest Clean Air Agency. Table utilizes the Northwest Clean Air Agency air quality
emissions report for BP Cherry Point. All water, hazardous waste and cleanup related activities are monitored
by the Washington State Department of Ecology.
The refinery is subject to the same taxes as all other refineries in Washington. The largest collected tax is the
Hazardous Substance Tax (HST). Other taxes include the Business and Occupation (B&O) tax, Property tax, Oil
Spill tax, the Petroleum Products tax and the usual sales and use taxes. BP paid $10,321 on 45 parcels owned
by BP Pipelines, $9,274,596 on 51 parcels owned for production and an additional $27,642 for 10 parcels
owned by BP West coast Products LLC. Total property taxes paid by BP in 2023 was $9,312,559 for their 106
company parcels owned.68
Table 10: BP Cherry Point Refinery emissions69
Pollutant Pollution (tons per year)
PM10 138
SO2 854
NOx 1935
VOC 419
CO 456
CO2 2,123,675
Refineries and Tribal Nations
This section provides a brief overview of the relationship between some of Washington's tribal nations and the
five refineries. As noted earlier, four of the five refineries are on or in close proximity to reservation land of
tribal nations, particularly the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, Lummi Nation Nooksack Indian Tribe, and
Puyallup Tribe. The refineries operate on lands including unceded tribal lands and known sacred and culturally
significant sites. The proximity of Washington refineries to tribal nations substantively impacts tribal
communities.
March Point, which houses the Marathon Anacortes and HF Sinclair Anacortes refineries, was part of the
Treaty Reservation established by the Treaty of Point Elliot. A subsequent Executive Order in 1855 purported to
exclude lands, including March Point from the Treaty Reservation, but was legally ineffective since only
Congress has the authority to diminish a reservation.70 While the refineries didn't begin operating until nearly
100 years later, these facilities --along with other nearby industrial operations--have significantly impacted
treaty rights, tribal health, property and self-determination. Industrial operations can particularly impact cultural
and subsistence food harvesting practices for tribal nations due to toxic pollution emissions. Treaty tribes in
68 Whatcom County Assessor’s Office Property Data, https://www.whatcomcounty.us/3869/Property-Data-Downloads
69 NWCAA, Major Businesses. https://nwcleanairwa.gov/permits-and-services/major-sources-of-air-pollution/
70 Judge Joseph J. Wiseman, "Judicial Toolkit on Indian Law", An Overview of Key Federal Indian Law Cases
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 30
Puget Sound have reserved the right to take fish, hunt and gather off their reservations, as described in
relevant treaties.7172 This includes marine and freshwater areas in and around Puget Sound. However, this right
has been impacted by the accumulation of biotoxins in many key species, including but not limited to littleneck
clams, Dungeness crabs and butter clams as a result of industrial pollution. 73
Treaty rights, cultural practices, and tribal member health have also been impacted by direct refinery
operations such as managing shipments by pipeline, rail and vessel. In March 2023, a BNSF Railway train
derailed on the Swinomish Reservation and spilled thousands of gallons of diesel fuel on tribal land. Separate
and apart from this spill, BNSF Railway was found to have breached the existing easement agreement with the
Swinomish Indian Tribal Community from 2012 to 2021. The existing easement, established in 1991, allowed
for BNSF to operate one train with up to 25 cars a day in either direction. However, BNSF Railway greatly
exceeded this usage agreement, resulting in nearly $400 million of BNSF profits being awarded by a Federal
Court to Swinomish as restitution.74 Unplanned flaring at the Shell Anacortes refinery in 2015 resulted in the
release of approximately 700 pounds of un-combusted air pollutants including hydrogen sulfide, dimethyl
sulfide, mercaptans, pyrophoric iron and benzene.75 The Swinomish Tribe reported over 550 affected people
who live and work on the reservation, including 12 who sought medical treatment and five who visited an
emergency room or hospital due to symptoms.76
The presence of the refineries also contributes to heightened air pollution in the area, in addition to pollution
from wood smoke, car and boat exhaust, and production from a nearby logging yard.77 As a result, the
Swinomish Air Quality Program began monitoring pollution from industrial sources, urban areas, and natural
sources, with over two decades of data.78 The refineries on March Point, which is within the Swinomish Treaty
Reservation, may contribute to local polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) pollution, along with pollution
dispersing from the Seattle/Tacoma area. Due to colonization and relocation by the US Federal government,
Native American reservations comprise a fraction of the lands tribes previously inhabited. These constraints
contribute to the disproportionate susceptibility and adverse health outcomes from atmospheric fine
particulate matter exposure in indigenous communities. Weather events such as inversions, common in the
winter months, significantly increase the excess lifetime cancer risk on the Swinomish reservation. 79 The air
quality concerns illustrated above negatively impact the ability to spend time doing activities outdoors and
traditional activities. The presence of the refineries, alongside other industrial development on March Point,
has affected how the Swinomish Tribe developed both their community and economy.
71 Gustafson, Zane and Eric de Place. "The History of Northwest Refineries", Sightline Institute, September 22, 2021. The History of
Northwest Refineries - Sightline Institute
72 Pacific Fishery Management Council, "Tribes", Tribes - Pacific Fishery Management Council (pcouncil.org)
73 Swinomish Water Resources Program, December 1, 2006, Bioaccumulative Toxics in Subsistence-Harvested Shellfish – Contaminant
Results and Risk Assessment, Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, La Conner, WA. Bioaccumulative Toxics in Subsistence-Harvested
Shellfish - Risk Results (swinomish-nsn.gov)
74 Tribal Business News, "Swinomish Tribe awarded nearly $400 million after BNSF Railway trespassed on reservation land." June 18,
2024. Swinomish Tribe awarded nearly $400 million after BNSF Railway trespassed on reservation land
75 Environmental Protection Agency, "EPA penalizes Shell for Anacortes refinery release", February 10, 2021. EPA penalizes Shell for
Anacortes refinery release | US EPA
76 Preston, Seth. “Shell’s Puget Sound Refinery penalized for chemical release | Northwest Clean Air Agency (nwcleanairwa.gov)”,
Northwest Clean Air Agency, November 16. 2016. ; Environmental Protection Agency, “Tesoro and Par Clean Air Act Settlement | US
EPA”, July 18, 2016.
77Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission, "Swinomish- Air Quality", Swinomish – Air quality | Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission
78 Swinomish Indian Tribal Community- Natural Resources, "Air Quality", Air Quality | Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, WA
79 Kramer, A. L., Campbell, L., Donatuto, J., Heidt, M., Kile, M., & Massey Simonich, S. L. (2020). Impact of local and regional sources of
PAHs on tribal reservation air quality in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The Science of the total environment, 710, 136412.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136412
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 31
The Swinomish Indian Tribal Community states that Fidalgo Bay is an important historic harvest site that has
been impacted by contamination and has therefore had limited harvest in recent years. A Washington
Department of Health study 80 concluded that the usage of Fidalgo Bay for harvesting and eating seafood
would represent a public health hazard at rates considered normal for tribal harvests.81 Impacts are ongoing
and strongly felt by local tribal nations, although some cleanup efforts are planned in the area.82 Similarly,
industrial development and related activities, among other factors, at Cherry Point has contributed strongly to
the decline of Cherry Point Herring stock. While Cherry Point Herring once had the highest spawning biomass
in the state83, their population has been in decline for decades. By 2001, the species, which was once most
prolific stock in Puget Sound, had declined by 94%.84 In 2023, no spawning was observed for the Cherry Point
Herring stock for the first time since formal monitoring began.85 Cherry Point herring are an important food
source for a variety of species significant to tribal communities, including Chinook and Coho salmon.
Additionally, the increased risk of oil spills due to increased vessel movements of crude oil presents significant
risks to Pacific herring stock.86 Populations already in decline, such as the Cherry Point stock, are considered
less able to withstand the short-term impacts of an oil spill.87
In addition to the cultural significance of traditional fishing and harvesting areas located near refineries, each
refinery is located on a site of known cultural significance. Cherry Point, also known as Xwe'chi'eXen, is a
historic village and final resting place of Lummi Nation ancestors. Xwe'chi'eXen has supported ceremony and
social gatherings for thousands of years, and Lummi has advocated for its protection, including blocking the
development of a coal terminal at Cherry Point.88 The terminal was blocked by the Army Corps of Engineers
because it would have interfered with the Lummi Nation's treaty-protected fishing rights.89 Since then,
Whatcom County unanimously passed permanent land-use policies prohibiting new fossil fuel refineries, coal
plants, transshipment facilities, piers and wharfs in the Cherry Point industrial zone.90
Native population density, assessed within 30 miles of the refineries, is highest within a 10-mile range around
Washington's refineries.91 Studies have found that a populations living within 10 miles of a refinery experience
a variety of negative health impacts, including respiratory issues,92 increased cancer risks93 and cardiovascular
80 Washington State Department of Health, “Health Consultation; Fidalgo Bay, Anacortes, Skagit County, Washington”, February 25,
2010. Fidalgo Bay, Anacortes, Health Consultation, 2010 (wa.gov)
81 "Rates considered normal for tribal harvests" or "Tribal scenario rates" refers to the developed consumption pattern used to assess
risk within the study. Tribal members consume an estimated six to 11 times more fish than non-tribal members according to the EPA
Columbia River Fish Contaminant Survey 1996-1998.
82 Washington Department of Ecology, "Fidalgo & Padilla baywide cleanups, Anacortes".
83 Northwest Ecosystem Alliance, "Petition to list the Cherry Point population of Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, as 'threatened' or
'endangered' under the Endangered Species Act, 16 U.S.C. § 1531 et seq. (1973 as amended).", January 21, 2004.
84 Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife, "News release: State scientists seek answers on Cherry Point herring decline", July 10,
2001.
85 Puget Sound Vital Signs, "Biomass of Spawning Pacific Herring", March 13, 2024.
86 Scruggs, Gregory, "Oil tanker traffic surges in WA waters with Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion", October 20, 2024.
87 Spromberg, Julann A., Sarah E. Allan, and Nathaniel L. Scholz. 2024. “Potential Population-Level Impacts of Future Oil Spills on
Pacific Herring Stocks in Puget Sound.” Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 30 (1–2): 138–63.
doi:10.1080/10807039.2023.2301529.
88 Mapes, Lynda V., "Tribes prevail, kill proposed coal terminal at Cherry Point", Seattle Times, May 9, 2016.
89 U.S. Army Corp of Engineers: Seattle District, "News Releases: Army Crops halts Gateway Pacific Terminal permitting process", May
9, 2016.
90 RE Sources, "In historic vote, Whatcom County approves landmark policy to regulate fossil fuel industry, protect Salish Sea", July 27,
2021.
91 Calculated using U.S. Census Tract Demographic data.
92 Fleischman, L., Kingland, D., Maxwell, C., & Rios, E. (n.d.). Clean Air Task Force (CATF)• League of United Latin American Citizens
(LULAC) National Hispanic Medical Association (NHMA).
93 Cordiano, R., Papa, V., Cicero, N., Spatari, G., Allegra, A., & Gangemi, S. (2022). Effects of Benzene: Hematological and Hypersensitivity
Manifestations in Resident Living in Oil Refinery Areas. Toxics, 10(11), 678.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 32
issues.94 In 2016, an unplanned flare at the then Shell Anacortes refinery reportedly prompted 67 complaints.
This incident impacted more than 550 people who live and work on the Swinomish Reservation, with reported
symptoms including headaches, nausea, fatigue and irritation of eyes, throat and lungs.95 The placement of
refineries next to tribal reservations and/or Usual and Accustomed territories is particularly problematic for a
range of reasons. Native Americans have specific relationships with the lands and waters they have stewarded
from time immemorial. Their place is embedded in their identity. Economic constraints can also prevent or
complicate moving off reservation lands. Additionally, with varying impacts from nation to nation, some tribal
citizens have access to some of their nation's rights and resources only when they reside on reservation land -
further complicating the capacity of some tribal citizens to move away from polluting refineries. Economically
stable, non-tribal residents of the state have more mobility to move away from pollution sources to limit
exposures.
94 Oberschelp, C., Pfister, S., & Hellweg, S. (2023). Global site-specific health impacts of fossil energy, steel mills, oil refineries and
cement plants. Scientific Reports, 13, 13708..
95 Preston, Sean. “Shell’s Puget Sound Refinery penalized for chemical release | Northwest Clean Air Agency (nwcleanairwa.gov)”,
Northwest Clean Air Agency, November 16. 2016. ; Environmental Protection Agency, “Tesoro and Par Clean Air Act Settlement | US
EPA”, July 18, 2016.
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Chapter 2: Achieving Washington Decarbonization
Mandates
Key Finding 4. Greenhouse gas emission limits and other climate and clean energy policies in Washington
state and across the broader regional market will contribute to changes in Washington’s refinery industry.
4.1 Under the Climate Commitment Act, Washington refineries are “emissions-intensive, trade exposed
industries” or EITEs, and currently receive no-cost allowances for their emissions.
4.2 The Climate Commitment Act, statutory greenhouse gas limits, the state Clean Fuel Standard and
other policies will impact refinery operations as emissions caps decrease and demand for zero-
emission vehicles increases.
Washington State Law
Background
Washington passed a suite of laws and policies related to clean electricity, clean fuels and limiting emissions
of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in recent years, as part of state action to address climate change. This chapter
provides information on key policies related to Washington's climate mitigation and resilience strategy and the
ways in which they may interact with or impact the operations and economics of Washington's petroleum
refining industry.
Statutory Greenhouse Gas Emission Limits
In 2020, the Washington Legislature set new greenhouse gas emission limits in order to combat climate
change. Under the law, the state is required to reduce emissions levels:
2020 – reduce to 1990 levels
2030 – 45% below 1990 levels
2040 – 70% below 1990 levels
2050 – 95% below 1990 levels and achieve net zero emissions
Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will require that, on average, sectors across the state reduce their GHG
emissions by approximately 95%, with additional reductions coming from carbon removal or sequestration
projects and processes. Because these limits are established in law, it will be critical for industries across the
state to make reductions.
Climate Commitment Act
The Climate Commitment Act (CCA) establishes a market-based program, which caps GHG emissions from
Washington's largest emitting sources and establishes an investment program to fund climate mitigation and
resilience, clean transportation and related programs. It came into effect in January 2023. The CCA works by
capping total state emissions and incentivizing Washington’s largest emitting sources and industries to reduce
their emissions96. This program works alongside other critical climate policies to help Washington achieve its
96 Washington Department of Ecology, Greenhouse gasses
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commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 95% by 2050. The program covers approximately 75%
of statewide emissions, applying to businesses that emit more than 25,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent per
year.97 The program leverages the existing GHG reporting program, with additional reporting requirements
unique to the Cap-and-Invest program. An emissions cap or program baseline was established by the
Department of Ecology, which is then used to establish the number of emissions allowances that can be sold
each year. Each allowance is equal to one metric ton of CO2 equivalent, and businesses can buy allowances at
auction. Businesses are required to obtain allowances equal to their covered GHG emissions. Covered
businesses that are noncompliant face fines of up to $50,000 per violation per day.
Ecology determines a set number of emissions allowances each year and must be set to achieve the share of
reductions by covered entities to achieve statewide limits established in RCW 70A.45.020 in 2030, 2040 and
2050. This program is intended to incentivize businesses and consumers to find the most efficient path to
lower carbon emissions. As allowances are reduced, the cost of allowances is expected to become more
expensive. The level of available allowances is set to decline in alignment with targets to reduce statewide
emissions by 45% by 2030, 70% by 2040 and 95% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels. Allowances can be
purchased at quarterly sealed-bid auctions, or they can be bought on a secondary market. These allowances
can be used for compliance, saved for use in the future or traded between market participants. Businesses
that have more allowances than needed for compliance can sell some of their allowances to other businesses
and individuals on the secondary market. Covered businesses may also earn offset credits. Offset credits 98
can be earned by participating in programs that help reduce, avoid or remove GHG emissions.
There are some businesses that receive no-cost allowances as required by legislature, including emissions-
intensive, trade exposed industries (EITEs), natural gas utilities and electric utilities. The following information
addresses EITEs only. Similar to the progressively fewer allowances offered on the cap-and-invest market,
EITEs receive a declining number of no-cost allowances over time. Between 2023 to 2026, EITEs receive
allowances equal to 100% of their baseline emissions, then receiving 97% for the 2027 to 2030 window, and
ending with 94% from 2031 to 2034. Future legislative sessions will decide how many allowances EITEs
receive from 2035 to 2050. These industries face unique challenges because they use high levels of energy
and have high GHG emissions, but also have significant national or global competition for their products.
Sudden or large changes to operational costs for these facilities could result in the business limiting in state
operation or even relocating outside of the state. If these EITEs were to limit operations or relocate, it may
reduce opportunities to reduce emissions and result in local job loss. Washington residents may still purchase
these goods from out-of-state companies that are not subject to the carbon pricing policies, resulting in
"leakage". Leakage refers to circumstances where Washington's overall emissions in state are reduced, but
only because facilities have moved their operations and emissions to another location. Temporarily providing
no-cost allowances for EITEs allows them to adjust and invest toward the net-zero and 95% reduction goals
but accommodates the time it may take these facilities to implement changes and for other jurisdictions to
consider carbon pricing policies. Similarly, the evolution of low carbon standards attempts to combat this
outsourcing, including policy like Washington's Buy Clean and Buy Fair law.99
EITEs receive allowances based on their baseline emissions, based on an average emissions per unit of
production during 2015-2019, known as their "carbon intensity baseline". A small number of facilities have a
"mass-based baseline" that is based on their average emissions during 2015-2019. These allowances are
updated each year by the Department of Ecology to be aligned with actual production at each facility. If output
97 Washington Department of Ecology, "Cap-and-Invest 101".
98 Washington State Department of Ecology, “Offsets - Washington State Department of Ecology”, Accessed August 6, 2024.
99 Huang, M., Lewis, M., Escarcega, P., Escarcega, E., Torres, M., Waterstrat, H., Kinder-Pyle, I., Simonen, K. (2022). Buy Clean Buy Fair
Washington Project: Final Report. Carbon Leadership Forum and Washington State Department of Commerce.
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decreases at a facility, the number of allowances they receive proportionally decreases. Similarly, if they
increase output, they receive a proportional increase in allowances. To receive no-cost allowances, facilities
must be compliant with GHG reporting standards. The total number of allowances will continue to decrease
based on a set reduction schedule through 2034. EITEs are incentivized to reduce emissions, because they can
sell their unused allowances or save them for future use. Currently, the approach for allocating allowances to
EITEs after 2034 is unclear. The Department of Ecology is preparing a report to the Legislature that offers
information and recommendations on how best to proceed after 2034, which is due by the end of 2026.
There are approximately 41 facilities in Washington designated as EITEs and receiving no cost allowances. All
five petroleum refineries are classified as EITEs and receive no-cost allowances. In 2023, about 9,330,137 no-
cost allowances were given to EITEs. The refineries are contained in a subsector of Petroleum Refining and
Chemical Manufacturing, which contains 10 total facilities. 6,731,041 allowances were provided for the 10
facilities in this subsector, accounting for approximately 72% of total EITE allowances. The five non-petroleum
refining facilities listed in the subsector reported 379,905 metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2022. The petroleum
refineries' total CO2 equivalent emissions was equivalent to approximately 93% of the total allowances for the
Petroleum Refining and Chemical Manufacturing subsector and approximately 66% of total no-cost
allowances.100 101 102 103
Revenue from the auctioning of allowances is then sent into critical climate projects. Investment of CCA
revenue focuses primarily on improving clean transportation options, increasing climate resiliency, and
addressing issues of environmental justice and health inequity. A minimum of 35% of the funds must be
invested in projects that benefit overburdened communities and a minimum of 10% to projects supported by
tribal resolution.104
Additionally, the CCA is working to reduce criteria air pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter, in
overburdened communities. Sixteen overburdened communities have been designated by Ecology to date
based on the criteria specified in the CCA. These overburdened communities are areas that are historically
overburdened with health, social and environmental inequities and are highly impacted by criteria air pollution.
These communities comprise about 15.5% of Washington's population, or more than 1.2 million people. 105
Washington's Cap-and-Invest program is only the second of its kind in the U.S. The first and second Cap-and-
Invest programs were launched by California in 2012 and in Québec, Canada; the programs linked in 2014. This
linkage allows for joint allowance auctions, a common allowance price and the trading of allowances across
jurisdictions. In March 2024, the Washington, California, and Québec jurisdictions expressed interest in linkage.
While this is a long process with many considerations to implementation, linkage could offer Washington
businesses access to a higher volume of emission allowances being traded. The larger market could
contribute to a reduction in price swings and more consistent prices. This could stabilize allowance prices and
improve the market's sustainability and durability in the long term. However, the earliest possible signing of a
100 Washington State Department of Ecology, “GHG Reporting Program Publication”, Natural Resources &
Environment, Updated January 12, 2024, Accessed July 17, 2024.
101 Washington State Department of Ecology, “Allowance Allocation to Emissions-Intensive, Trade-Exposed Industries for the First
Compliance Period: 2024 vintage allocation”, October 2023.
102 Washington State Department of Ecology, “Emissions Intensive Trade Exposed industries - Washington State Department of
Ecology”, Accessed August 5, 2024.
103 Washington State Department of Ecology, "No Cost Allowances".
104 Washington State Office of Financial Management, "2023-25 Biennium Climate Commitment Act investments to benefit
overburdened communities and Tribes"
105 Washington Department of Ecology, "Overburdened Communities", Overburdened communities - Washington State Department of
Ecology
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linkage agreement is in 2025, as the Department of Ecology must complete several steps first. These steps
include developing a proposed linkage agreement, completing an environmental justice assessment and
establishing findings based on linkage criteria.106
CCA implementation, and in particular the decisions made by the Legislature regarding EITE allowances and
reductions required after 2034, will impact the opportunities available to Washington's refineries as they
identify ways to meet required reductions.
Clean Fuel Standard
The Washington State Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) is intended to help limit carbon pollution from transportation.
Transportation is currently the largest source of GHG emissions in Washington. In 2019, 39% of Washington's
102.1 million metric tons CO2e emissions came from transportation. This policy aims to cut statewide GHG
emissions by 4.3 million metric tons a year by 2038. 107 The CFS aims to reduce the emissions from the
production and supply of transportation fuels by providing an increasing range of low carbon and renewable
alternatives. These alternatives will serve to reduce dependency on petroleum and improve air quality. The CFS
is a market-based policy designed to provide incentives for low carbon fuel production.
The CFS works by requiring fuel suppliers to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels. Carbon
intensity (CI) is the total amount of carbon dioxide released during a fuel's lifecycle per unit of transportation
fuel energy that is released into the air. This includes the time the raw materials are produced, to the time the
fuel is used. Fuel suppliers must gradually reduce the CI of transportation fuels to 20% below 2017 levels by
2034. This can be done by improving the efficiency of fuel production processes, producing or blending low
carbon biofuels into fuel they sell and purchasing credits generated by low carbon fuel providers.
Fuels below the standard generate credits that can be kept or sold to producers of high-carbon fuels. Fuels
above the standard generate deficits, for which credits must be bought to meet the required CI reduction that
year. The CI requirement gradually increases over time, increasing the available amount of low carbon
transportation fuels in the state. The reduced CI means reduced GHG emissions over time, aimed at helping
address impacts of climate change. It is also possible to earn capacity credits. Capacity credits serve to
incentivize low carbon fueling infrastructure, such as DC fast charging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure.
These credits are available for fueling stations installed after January 1, 2023. DC Fast charging stations allow
for short recharge stops when traveling extended distances, helping to expand supportive infrastructure for
electric vehicles.
This policy is aimed at helping improve air quality, particularly for communities in high traffic areas.
Transportation fuels emit harmful air pollution that has negative health impacts, some of which can be
reduced using lower-carbon fuels. An estimated $1.8 to $3.8 billion in economic benefit could be generated by
implementing the CFS due to reduced healthcare costs and improved health outcomes. 108The CFS contributes
to economic development as well. Currently, the majority of low carbon fuels produced in Washington are sold
out of state. By expanding the requirements for in state clean fuel production, the CFS helps expand the supply
of clean fuels in state and supports their production. The CFS has provisions that tie stricter CI standards to
the production of biofuels in Washington. Specifically, the statute requires that the carbon intensity reductions
may not exceed 10% until two standards are met: the production and completion of a new or expanded biofuel
106 Washington Department of Ecology, "Focus on: Cap-and-Invest Program Linkage", Publication 23-14-004, July 2024; Washington
Department of Ecology, "Cap-and-Invest Linkage".
107 Washington Department of Ecology, "Clean Fuel Standard".
108 Washington State Department of Ecology, "Clean Fuel Standard Cost Benefit Analysis Report", Berkeley Research Group, Energy &
Climate, May 12, 2022.
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production facility with capacity to produce 60 million gallons of biofuel per year with at least 10 million
gallons of annual capacity located in a new (rather than expanded) facility, and at least a 15% increase in the
volume of in-state liquid biofuel production and the use of feedstocks grown or produced within the state
relative to the start of the program.
Motor Vehicles Emissions Standards- Zero-Emission Vehicles
As part of Washington's Clean Vehicles program, new zero-emission and low-emission vehicle standards were
adopted in 2021. These requirements take effect in 2024 with the release of model year 2025 vehicles. Zero-
emission vehicles (ZEVs) include battery powered electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell
electric vehicles. These vehicles must have at least 50 miles of electric-only range. An increasing percentage
of ZEV sales is required each year, ranging from 6% to 9% of sales.109 By 2035, 100% of vehicles sold in
Washington must be ZEVs.110
New vehicles that do not meet Washington's vehicle emission standards cannot be registered, licensed, rented
or sold in the state. Oregon, California and Washington share the same vehicles emissions standards. Used
cars purchased with more than 7,500 miles may be registered in Washington, regardless of whether it meets
California vehicle emission standards. Used cars with less than 7,500 miles must meet these standards. A
2009 or newer model car bought in California or Oregon will meet Washington standards, and cars purchased
in states that without these vehicle emissions standards cannot be registered in Washington. 111
An important note is that the law does not ban any gas or diesel vehicle currently on the road. Rather, it
steadily replaces fossil-fuel powered vehicles with cleaner models for new vehicle sales. This standard is
helping to drive an expected decline in conventional fuel consumption in Washington. However, fleet turnover
of existing vehicles introduces difficulty in modeling fleet levels. 18.8% of Washington's new vehicle sales in
2023 were electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Additionally, there was a 43% increase in registered electric
vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2023, jumping from 118,050 registered vehicles to 168,850.112 This
gathering momentum of electric vehicles can be attributed to federal and state incentives for their purchase,
increasing options for consumers and declining production costs contributing to price cuts. The increased
adoption rates of ZEVs are expected to exert a downwards pressure on fuel prices as fewer drivers in state are
reliant on internal combustion engine vehicles.
Relevance of Washington State Climate and Clean Transportation
Policies for this Study
This study evaluates the economic impacts of current and potential future operations of Washington's
refineries, with statutory language requiring that possible future outcomes consider "realistic, real-world
outcomes, given existing mandated decarbonization targets, feedstock availability and statutes that impact
Washington refinery products." In addition to short- and medium-term reductions that are expected to occur in
the early years of program implementation, this study assumes that by 2050, refineries will also have made
significant changes to products and function that align with net-zero economy-wide reductions. These
potential changes are described within the scenario analysis in Chapter 3.
109 Washington Department of Ecology, "Zero-emission vehicles (ZEV)".
110 Washington Department of Ecology, "Washington Clean Cars"
111 Washington Department of Ecology, "Washington Clean Cars"
112 Halter, Caroline, "A record year for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in Washington", Washington Department of Ecology, April 9,
2024.
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Decarbonization in Washington Refineries' Typical Export Markets
Significant amounts of the fuels and products produced in Washington's refineries are sold to states and
regions in the Northwest. For example, Washington supplies fuel to Oregon, which has no refineries and is
served by the Olympic pipeline. The Olympic Pipeline connects four of Washington's refineries to Portland,
Oregon. Washington also exports products to California and British Columbia. These states and the province
of BC have emission reduction and climate policies that are relatively aligned with Washington's policies.
Examples include the proposed linkage of California, Quebec and Washington's carbon allowance auctions, as
well as the adoption of low carbon fuel standards in California, Oregon and Washington.
Washington refineries also export their products internationally. Some primary international export markets for
products refined in Washington include Canada, Mexico and several countries in Central and South Americas.
In 2022, Mexico submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris agreement,
which included plans to reduce GHG emissions by 35% by 2030. 113Efforts are particularly focused on
improving building energy efficiency and improving clean transportation access. Expected results include GHG
emissions reduced or avoided equivalent to over 3.3 million gasoline powered passenger vehicles driven for
one year.
In June 2021, the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act became law. This legislation ensures
transparency and accountability as Canada works to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. 114Current emissions
projects, with continued efforts toward emissions reductions, have Canada on track to meet or even exceed a
target reduction of 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. Canada has also introduced an Electric Vehicle Availability
Standard, 115 similar to Washington's ZEV standards.
Chile, which receives exports of distillate fuel oil and residual fuel oil from PADD 5, enshrined net-zero targets
in their Climate Change Framework Law in 2022. The plan creates new governance structures across national
and local levels to help accelerate net-zero implementation. 116 Chile has also adopted electric vehicle
initiatives, with a goal of 40% electric vehicles on the road by 2050. Electric vehicle sales gained significant
momentum in 2022, which is expected to continue. 117
While it is not clear the extent to which climate and clean energy laws will be established and implemented in
other states and countries in the future, global efforts are developing to reduce the impacts of climate change,
which is expected to continue to reduce demand for conventional petroleum and fossil fuel products over time.
113 United States Agency International Development, "Mexico: Climate Change Country Profile", 2023.
114 Government of Canada, "Net-zero emissions by 2050", Environmental and Natural Resources.
115 Government of Canada, "Canada’s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard (regulated targets for zero-emission vehicles)".
116 Cynthia Elliott, Clea Schumer, Rebecca Gasper, Katie Ross and Neelam Singh, "Chile's New governance Structures Are Streamlining
Net-zero Implementation", World Resources Institute, March 6, 2024.
117 Mobility Portal Europe, "Chile, the market everyone is watching to sell electric vehicles and install chargers", May 9, 2024.
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Chapter 3: Forecasting the Future
Key Finding 5. As petroleum demand declines, refinery operations will change, and economic impacts will
vary depending on the type and degree of decline.
5.1 Most of the petroleum products refined in Washington are sold to markets with greenhouse gas
emission limits that will contribute to reduced demand for petroleum-based fuels.
5.2 Production and employment declines will lead to declines in labor income and value added, output,
and tax revenues.
5.3 Reductions in petroleum demand and use will likely contribute to savings associated with health
care and environmental costs.
Key Finding 6. All five of Washington’s refineries are likely to change their product mix or function as part of
achieving net zero emission limits by 2050.
6.1 Several scenarios of change in refinery product mix or function are possible and may occur in
succession.
6.2 Washington refineries may remain viable in the future, but are expected to change their core
products or overall function. Refinery closure is possible, but more likely in the long term.
Key Finding 7. Washington’s refineries are moderately well-positioned to produce alternative fuels, though
likely at levels lower than would fully replace the current refinery capacity.
Forecasted Fuel Demand
Introduction
This section compiles information on petroleum and renewable fuel demands through 2050 for four
geographic scopes: U.S., Pacific coast, Washington and global markets.
Renewable fuels are included as potential products that can be produced at Washington refineries; in
particular, the products that are focused on in this study are renewable diesel and alternative118 jet fuel
(AJF)119. AJF is a broad term for jet fuels with non-crude oil feedstock. This term has been largely replaced by
sustainable aviation fuel as this term encompasses desired sustainability attributes. However, for consistency
with Washington state law, we use the term AJF in this report with the assumption that the alternative fuels
will also be sustainable. While other technology/product options exist for refineries, these fuels are the most
compatible with existing refineries. This section also evaluates the possibility of adding (stacking) federal and
state/province policies that impact the decision to produce renewable fuel as well as sales location. The
trends presented within this section will need to be evaluated with refinery specific details to determine the
optimal product slate at each refinery.
118 Alternative jet fuel is a defined term in Washington state law, meaning "a fuel that can be blended and used with conventional
petroleum jet fuels without the need to modify aircraft engines and existing fuel distribution infrastructure, and that have a lower carbon
intensity than the applicable annual carbon intensity standard in Table 2 of WAC 173-424-900, as it existed on the effective date of this
section. Alternative jet fuel includes jet fuels derived from coprocessed feedstocks at a conventional petroleum refinery."
119 Chapter 232, Laws of 2023
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Four geographic scopes were compiled on petroleum and renewable fuel demands through 2050: U.S., Pacific
coast, Washington state, and global. On a global scale, petroleum fuels are expected to grow by 2050.
However, a dip, especially evident in gasoline, is expected in the mid-term (2035). All other geographic scales
have a slight decline over the timeline, with reductions in gasoline consumption from electrification being a key
driver. Renewable fuels are included as potential products for Washington refineries; thus, the focus centers on
producing renewable diesel and AJF. While other technology/product options exist for refineries, these fuels
are the most compatible with existing refineries. Demand for renewable diesel and AJF are projected to
increase over all geographic scopes and the timeline. The possibility of adding (stacking) federal and
state/province policies impact the decision to produce renewable fuel as well as the sales location. Increased
demand, policy support in the Pacific coast region, and compatibility with technology support adding
renewable fuels to Washington refinery’s product slates either through co-processing or conversion of
refineries to biorefineries. However, feedstock and specific refinery infrastructure can limit this option. The
trends presented will need to be evaluated with refinery-specific details to determine the optimal product slate
at each refinery. Much of the detailed prediction data is from the U.S. EIA and it should be noted that the GHG
emission limits in the state of Washington are much lower, making substantial potential declines in petroleum
fuel demand more likely. This is discussed as one of the potential cases.
Petroleum Fuel Demand
The demand for petroleum fuels in the near-term (2025), mid-term (2035) and long-term (2050) will influence
the production choices of Washington refineries. Demand for petroleum fuels over these time horizons are
discussed for four geographic areas: (1) U.S., (2) Washington, (3) Pacific coast region and (4) global. The
Pacific coast region is defined as Washington, California, Oregon and Canadian British Columbia.
Each refinery is unique and produces specific slates of fuel distillates and non-fuel products using different
crude oils. This report focuses on the demand for gasoline, jet/kerosene and diesel/residual fuel distillates and
uses generalized refinery operating assumptions rather than data from specific Washington refineries. These
trends and options will need to be evaluated for each unique refinery scenario in order to make specific
projections about demand changes at the individual refinery level.
1. U.S.
The reference case in the 2023 U.S. Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), issued by the U.S. Energy Information
Agency (EIA), was chosen as the source of petroleum consumption projections. Gasoline, jet/kerosene and
diesel/residual fuel use in the U.S. is predicted to drop by an average of 9% by 2050 (Error! Reference source n
ot found.)Error! Bookmark not defined.120.
Table 11: Reference case 2023 AEO U.S. petroleum fuel consumption values (billion
gallons/year).
2022-2050
Fuel type 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
% change
Gasoline 135 133 124 116 112 110 113 -16%
Jet/Kerosene 24 26 27 28 30 32 34 42%
Diesel/Residual 65 62 59 57 56 56 56 -14%
Total 224 221 210 201 198 198 203 -9%
120 EIA, "Annual Energy Outlook 2023" (2023).
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140
Projected Fuel Consumption (billion gal/yr)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Diesel Residual Fuel Oil LPG/Other
Figure 3: Change in fuel distillate demand for the AEO 2023 reference case from 2022
to 2050.
Gasoline has the largest projected consumption drop at 14% from 2022 to 2050 (Figure 4). A sensitivity
analysis was completed to determine the impact of the oil price. The reference case gasoline consumption
was compared to high and low oil price cases. As expected, more gasoline is consumed in a scenario that
anticipates low oil prices and less is consumed in a scenario with high oil prices, with the differences most
apparent in the long-term. The data shows only minor changes to gasoline consumption between the selected
cases by 2030.120
140
130
Gasoline (billion gal/yr)
120
110
100
90
80
70
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Reference High Oil Price Low Oil Price
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Figure 4: AEO 2023 gasoline consumption for the reference, high oil price and low oil
price cases.
2. Washington
Washington consumed a total of 4.6 billion gallons of petroleum distillate fuel oil, jet fuel, gasoline and residual
fuel oil in 2021, corresponding to 1% of the total U.S. consumption.121 This is roughly half of the 8.9-billion-
gallon capacity of the Washington refineries, which includes distillates and products not listed above.
The U.S. EIA data does not include state-level fuel projections. Thus, to develop a reference case describing
business as usual for Washington’s fuel consumption through 2050, it is assumed that the consumption rate
from 2021 will stay consistent through 2050. This rate was applied to the U.S. AEO data (Figure 5, Table ).
3.0
2.5
Billion Gallons per Year
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
gasoline diesel + residual jet/kerosene
Figure 5: Washington petroleum fuel consumption values based on AEO reference
case through 2050.
Washington has the newly implemented Clean Fuel Standard (CFS), the Climate Commitment Act and net zero
GHG-emission limits law passed in 2020.122 123 124 These Washington-specific policies demonstrate
Washington’s legal commitments to significantly reduce GHG emissions. Gasoline is the largest volume fuel
used in Washington and reductions in carbon intensity of transportation fuels will likely require product use
changes including additional ethanol consumption, although additional options will be needed in addition to
ethanol use to reach these targets. In 2022 the Washington and California ethanol blend rates in gasoline were
7.1% and 7.3%, respectively.125 The values are nearly identical, and California implemented the Low Carbon
Fuel Standard (LCFS) over a decade ago in 2013. The zero-emission law is expected to impact the amount of
gasoline required for new cars purchased in the state but could face litigation delays and does not impact
121 EIA, "State Energy Consumption Estimates 1960 Through 2022" (2022).
122 Washington Department of Ecology, “Washington Clean Fuel Standard Data & Reports,” (2024).
123 Washington State Legislature, RCW 70A.30.010 (United States, 2020).
124 State of Washington Department of Ecology, “Climate Commitment Act,” Climate Commitment Act, (2024).
125 California Air Resources Board, “LCFS Data Dashboard,” (2024).
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used car sales. The Climate Commitment Act states that emissions from the combustion of fuels used in
aviation, agriculture, marine fuels used outside of Washington, any fuel exported from Washington and
biofuels are exempt from the statewide 95% GHG reduction target.126 This program is market-based, and as
such, the potential future cost to a refinery is unknown. However, it is expected that this legislation will
promote the reduction in Washington petroleum fuel consumption.
A sensitivity analysis was completed as part of this study to address the uncertainty surrounding CFS,
electrifying road transport and the impact of the Climate Commitment Act. Figure 6 illustrates gasoline
projections, including the AEO reference, low oil price and high oil price cases. The legislation enacted in
Washington could lead to petroleum fuel consumption dropping below the national average. To quantify a
more rapid possible reduction, a scenario based on the assumption that gasoline consumption in Washington
declines at the same rate as was included in a 2024 California Air Resources Board (CARB) report. The
selected comparative scenario is labeled as “fast” in that report, which is based on full, successful
implementation of a similar zero emission vehicle legislation. However, it does not account for the California-
specific details used in the modeling effort.127 It should be noted that because a Washington-specific analysis
was not completed, outcomes will vary from the California values. In addition, the California predictions only
extend to 2045. Neither the AEO nor the CARB scenarios meet the statutory 95% CO2e reduction by 2050.
However, an assumed scenario with a 95% reduction in demand was included in Figure 6 to illustrate
compliance with the state's GHG emission limits.128
For all gasoline scenarios, small differences are predicted through 2030, and we anticipate petroleum demand
levels that are much higher than the corresponding Washington emissions limits. With the longer projections,
uncertainty increases, as does the spread in the scenarios. In the reference case, consumption of petroleum
fuels drops 6% by 2050; this drop increases to 50% for the California “fast” scenario in 2045.The low and high
oil price scenarios have Washington petroleum consumption declining by 1% or 14% by 2050, respectively. The
AEO reference case for diesel and distillate fuel consumption predicts a 14% drop; for aviation fuel a 42%
growth is expected. The U.S. Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge set a target replacement rate of
petroleum fuel of 100% by 2050.129 If we assume the complete replacement of aviation fuel, the AEO reference
case and the California “fast” scenarios have total petroleum fuel decreases of 33% by 2050 and 77% by 2045,
respectively. The final scenario assumes that emissions reductions follow the Washington regulations with a
95% reduction in 2050 being the result of a 95% reduction in petroleum fuel use. The methods to attain these
reductions were not modeled.
126 State of Washington Department of Ecology, "Focus on: Washington’s Climate Policies and Fuel Prices" (2023).
127 Q. Gee, A. Berliner, and A. Wong, "2024 Transportation Fuels Assessment" (2024).
128 Washington Department of Ecology, “Washington’s Cap-and-Invest Program,” Washington Department of Ecology, (2024).
129 U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, "SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap Flight Plan for Sustainable".
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3.0
2.5
Billion Gallons per Year
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
AEO reference AEO low oil price AEO high oil price
CA, "fast" scenario WA target reduction
Figure 6: Gasoline projections for Washington
3. Pacific Coast Region
The EIA uses Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) to define and track petroleum product
movement within the U.S. via pipelines. Washington is part of PADD 5, which also includes California, Oregon,
Nevada and Arizona. For nearly 40 years, PADD 5 has imported between 1.3 and 2.2 billion gallons annually
from other U.S. PADDs. Very little exportation from PADD 5 has occurred, with 2001 being the last year with
recorded exports to other U.S. PADD regions. This data, while incomplete without non-pipeline transported fuel
or imports/exports outside of the U.S., demonstrates a strong historical demand for petroleum fuels on the
West Coast that consistently surpasses production.
In 2022, California dominated regional energy consumption from petroleum fuels, with nearly five times the
consumption of the next largest Pacific coast state, Washington.130 California consumed 4% of the U.S. total
energy from distillate fuel oil, jet fuel, gasoline and residual fuel oil petroleum fuels; Oregon and Washington
consumed significantly less, using 0.5% and 1%, respectively.130 Table presents the projections of petroleum
fuel for the Pacific coast states, calculated following the method described for the state of Washington, which
applies the state percentage to the AEO reference case data.
In 2019, British Columbia used 10% of the total petroleum products in Canada (3.7 billion gallons).131 132 This
portion is assumed to remain constant through 2050 and applied to national projections (Table ).132 The
proximity of the Washington refineries makes British Columbia an ideal trade partner, however there are two
130 Washington Department of Ecology, “Washington Clean Fuel Standard Data & Reports,” (2024).
131 Canada Energy Regulator, “Access and Explore Energy Futures Data,” Canada Energy Regulator, (2023).
132 Canada Energy Regulator, “Provincial and Territorial Energy Profiles - British Columbia,” Canada Energy Regulator, (2024).
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refineries in British Columbia with a combined capacity of 1 billion gallons annually.132 While U.S. fuel products
are currently sold into British Columbia, Canada as a whole exports 75% of its total production into the U.S.133
Table 12: Projected state, province and regional fuel consumption data (billion
gallons/year).
2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Washington 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3
California 22 22 21 20 20 20 21
Oregon 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
U.S. Region Total 29 29 28 26 26 26 27
British Columbia 3.4* 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.6
Region Total 32 32 30 29 28 28 29
* value for 2019
4. Global
The International Energy Outlook (IEO) 2023 projects petroleum demand will grow globally for all distillates by
2050 compared to 2022. However, gasoline consumption has a mid-term dip (Table ).134 Despite the
expectation of rising demand for renewable fuel, the reference case for petroleum fuel demand grows due to
population growth and the impact of price premiums for renewable fuel. Global demand growth supports
continued petroleum fuel production. However, the economics of transporting fuel to global demand centers is
not included in this scenario and may limit the economic feasibility of products from Washington refineries
being sold internationally.
Table 13: Reference case 2023 IEO global petroleum fuel consumption values. (billion
gallons/year).
2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gasoline 400 400 393 389 392 404 422
Jet/Kerosene 399 414 424 437 451 468 486
Diesel/Residual 80 102 114 126 138 151 163
Total 879 917 932 951 980 1023 1072
Renewable Fuel Demand
The demand for renewable fuels is expected to grow across the timeline assessed for this project. Greenhouse
gas (GHG) reduction targets, goals, incentives and mandates enacted at state, provincial, national and global
levels facilitate the transition to renewable fuels, but the combined effectiveness of the various policies is
uncertain.
133 Canada Energy Regulator, “Provincial and Territorial Energy Profiles - Canada,” Canada Energy Regulator, (2024).
134 EIA, International Energy Outlook 2023 (2023).
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The largest volume of renewable fuel production in the U.S. is ethanol, at nearly 85% in 2022.135 However,
ethanol is not a likely choice for Washington petroleum refineries to produce. The volume was included in this
section as a point of reference. Renewable diesel and AJF produced using the hydroprocessed esters and fatty
acids (HEFA) process are the simplest products for a petroleum refinery to manufacture as the process
technology is similar to current refining processes. Renewable diesel and AJF are similar products, with
renewable diesel having a wider hydrocarbon chain length range. The hydrocarbon chain lengths for AJF
overlap with a portion of the renewable diesel specification, which means that each fuel producer will
determine if they want to produce renewable diesel or combination of renewable diesel and AJF. Biodiesel is
not an optimum choice due to the process technology differences but is a direct competitor for renewable
diesel in both feedstock and market, so it is included.
U.S.
AEO 2023, used for the petroleum projections, was selected as the source of renewable fuel production
predictions for the U.S. (Table ). As with the petroleum analysis, the reference case is the focus; however, the
sensitivity analysis includes cases for low and high oil prices. Figure 7 illustrates that high oil prices increase
renewable diesel production more than low oil prices hinder volumes compared to the reference case.Error! B
ookmark not defined. It is important to note that projection values vary with assumptions. The U.S.
Department of Agriculture reported that the 2022 U.S. renewable diesel production capacity was 3 billion
gallons, with 2.9 billion gallons consumed, compared to the AEO consumption value of 2.1 billion gallons. 136
The U.S., through the U.S. AJF Grand Challenge, stated a goal of 10% AJF usage by 2030 (3 billion gallons) and
100% replacement (35 billion gallons) in 2050, with the caveat that the fuel must have a life-cycle GHG
reduction of at least 50%.137 The AJF production projection for 2050 assumes that the current AJF blend limits
will be removed by 2050, allowing 100% AJF to be utilized.
Table 14: Reference case 2023 AEO U.S. renewable fuel production volumes (billion
gallons/year).
2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Ethanol 15.0 15.7 15.5 15.5 15.6 16.2 17.2
Biodiesel 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7
Renewable diesel 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 3.2
AJF 3.0 35.0
135 EIA, "Annual Energy Outlook 2023" (2023).
136 USDA, “U.S. Bioenergy Statistics,” Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture, (2024).
137 Canada Energy Regulator, “Access and Explore Energy Futures Data,” Canada Energy Regulator, (2023).
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2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2022
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Change in U.S. Renewable Diesel Production Compared to Reference Case (billiong gal/yr)
low oil cost high oil cost
Figure 7: Change in projected U.S. renewable diesel production volume compared to
the AEO reference case for the low and high oil price cases.
Washington
The Washington CFS has defined GHG annual reduction targets through 2028, which will be met through
various measures, including renewable fuels. Overall, the CFS requires fuel suppliers to reduce the carbon
intensity of transportation fuels by 20% by 2034, compared to a 2017 baseline. Feedstock and conversion
technology provide renewable fuels with a unique carbon intensity (CI). The breadth of reduction measures will
allow for many solutions to reach the target.138
Washington has met the ethanol blend wall of 10%; thus, unless a higher maximum blend level is approved,
additional GHG reductions from fuels will be from other sources.139 Although in 2022 the renewable diesel
blend rate was negligible, for 2024 Berkley Research Group predicts 5.5% renewable diesel in Washington.
California has a significant demand for renewable diesel, reaching a blend rate of 46% in 2022, a decade after
the introduction of LCFS.140 141The estimation of the renewable diesel demand for Washington assumes
similar growth to California, with a 50% blend ratio starting in 2035 with a linear increase from 2024. The
estimated demand for renewable diesel in Washington could reach over 0.5 billion gallons by 2050.142
Reduction in emissions from aviation is currently not a requirement in Washington, as the CFS does not cover
aviation fuels. However, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA), the largest airport in Washington, has set
AJF use goals.142 143 The total demand for renewable diesel and AJF in Washington for 2035 and 2050 is
estimated to be 0.5 and 1.3 billion gallons, respectively (Table ).
138 Washington State Legislature, RCW 70A.30.010 (United States, 2020).
139 BRG, "Washington Department of Commerce Clean Fuel Supply Forecast Report" (2022).
140 California Air Resources Board, “LCFS Data Dashboard,” (2024).
141 G. Yowell, "What Is Displacing Fossil Diesel in California?" (2024).
142 Washington Department of Ecology, “Washington Clean Fuel Standard Data & Reports,” (2024).
143 EIA, "State Energy Consumption Estimates 1960 Through 2022" (2022).
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Table 15: Washington renewable diesel and AJF replacement estimates
2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Renewable Diesel (% of total diesel consumption) 5.5% 7% 16% 24% 33% 41% 50%
Renewable Diesel (billion gallons/year) 0.07 0.09 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
AJF (SEA) (% of total jet fuel consumption) 10%* 25% 100%
AJF (SEA) (billion gallons/year) 0.1* 0.2 0.7-0.8
*goal is for 2028
Pacific Coast Region
Renewable fuel consumption in the Pacific coast region will be dominated by California. In 2021, California
consumed 99% of the renewable diesel in the U.S., with Oregon taking nearly all the rest.144 These states are
leading U.S. consumption, likely because of the long-standing state policy support and aggressive target GHG
reductions. In 2023, California alone consumed 2 billion gallons of renewable diesel. The state of California
also has a 20% target for AJF use by 2030, equivalent to 0.8 billion gallons.145 146 California GHG targets
currently level off in 2030; however, new lower targets are in. Oregon used 0.08 billion gallons of renewable
diesel in 2023, a replacement rate of only 6%, leaving a nearly untapped market.147 British Columbia has
mandates to meet that are more aggressive than the national Canadian targets. The required blend ratio for
diesel is 4%, and for aviation fuel, it is 1% in 2028, 2% in 2029, and 3% in 2030 and beyond.148 The Pacific coast
regional demand will depend on GHG targets and the different policies to meet the targets. A reasonable
regional estimate is 3 billion gallons per year of combined renewable diesel and AJF use in the Pacific coast
region in 2030, which could increase to 4 billion gallons in annual consumption by 2050.
Global
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural
Organization (FAO) have published renewable fuel consumption projection values out to 2032 for ethanol and
biodiesel (Table ).149 The term “biodiesel” for this reference is the sum of biodiesel and renewable diesel.
Table includes the F1-low scenario for AJF production computed by the International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) based on public production announcements.150 This scenario assumes that AJF and all
renewable fuels have the same level of policy support and that electrification of ground transport will allow a
higher fraction of AJF to be separated from renewable diesel. This assumption is also included in the 2022
value, which is why the value is above the actual production. Long-term projections out to 2050 are challenging
for a specific location and only become more difficult for larger geographic areas. In 2030, the global demand
for renewable diesel and AJF could reach nearly 20 billion gallons. Using ICAO AJF projections to 2050 and
holding the renewable diesel value steady, 60 billion gallons of middle distillates could be produced by 2050.
The IEA World Energy Outlook projects a combined liquid biofuel volume in 2030 and 2050, ranging from 46-86
and 69-83 billion gallons, respectively.151
144 EIA, "State Energy Consumption Estimates 1960 Through 2022" (2022).
145 Washington Department of Ecology, “Washington Clean Fuel Standard Data & Reports,” (2024).
146 R. Rivas, and Muratsuchi, AB 1322. "California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006: Aviation Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Reduction Plan." (California Legislative Information, USA, 2022).
147 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, "2023 Clean Fuels Forecast" (2023).
148 British Columbia, “LCFS Requirements,” British Columbia, (2024).
149 OECD-FAO, "OCED-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032" (2023).
150 ICAO, LTAG Data Spreadsheet (2022).
151 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2023 (2023).
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Table 16: OCED-FAO renewable fuel consumption and ICAO AJF production
projections in (billion gallons/year).
Average
2025 2030 2032 2035 2040 2045 2050
2020-2022
Ethanol
32.9 36.6 39.0 39.9
(OCED-FAO)
Biodiesel
14.4 16.2 17.3 17.7
(OCED-FAO)
AJF* (ICAO) 0.4** 0.6 1.5 3.6 8.6 19.4 39.6
*F1-low scenario
**2022 value
Washington Refinery Renewable Fuel Scenarios
This section of the study will discuss possible production scenarios available to Washington refineries. These
paths could include continuing production of petroleum distillates or adapting their process to include
renewable fuels. Context is provided about incorporating renewable fuel production as part of current
operations or as a comprehensive change of business model. All of the content of this section is based on
public information and does not include the details needed to make refinery-specific decisions. In addition,
specific refinery names and locations are not included in this analysis.
Co-processing Biogenic Carbon
Co-processing occurs when biogenic carbon sources and crude oil are processed together in an existing
petroleum refinery with the resulting fuel typically having a lower CI. Depending on refinery specifics, co-
processing can be implemented quickly with relatively low capital investment.152 153 154 Refineries can select
multiple insertion points, including before the fluid catalytic cracker or in either the hydrotreating or
hydrocracking operations. Co-processing also allows a refinery to continuously modify the feedstock based on
market conditions, increasing the co-processing rate or returning to 100% crude oil. Each refinery will have to
evaluate the ability to co-process as adding biogenic feedstock creates a more acidic and exothermic refining
environment, both of which can limit addition rates depending on process variables such as refinery
metallurgy.153
As with crude oil, not all the feedstock ends up as fuels. This analysis assumes that 80% of the biogenic
carbon becomes part of the fuel products.155 Currently, ASTM D1655, the standard specification for aviation
fuels limits co-processing to 5% of the feedstock if aviation fuel is part of the product slate.156 An ASTM
working group is assessing increasing the biogenic feedstock limit to 30%. The co-processing scenarios
selected for the Washington refineries are 5%, 10% and 30% replacement of crude with biogenic carbon. These
152 Shell, “Co-processing,” Shell Website, (2024).
153 BP, “The role of co-processing in aviation’s transition to a lower-carbon future,” Air Bp, (2022).
154 ExxonMobil, “Co-processing: Working towards a sustainable energy solution at scale,” ExxonMobil, (2024).
155 Z. Li, and S.B. Lehmann, "Biogenic Carbon Tracking and Measurement in Co-Processing of Biogenic Feeds in Petroleum Refineries"
(2023).
156 ASTM International, “Revision of D1655-23a Standard Specification for Aviation Turbine Fuels,” ASTM, (2023).
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scenarios could theoretically result in 0.3, 0.7, and 2.0 billion gallons of renewable fuels respectively. Each
refinery will have to evaluate their own ability to co-process and the rate at which this is possible.
Biorefinery Co-Location
Co-locating a biorefinery at an existing petroleum refinery is another option refineries may consider. Co-
location involves adding infrastructure to an existing site that allows for the sharing of assets. There is no
defined methodology to determine the ideal size of a co-located facility, as this depends on the specifics of
each site. The volume of renewable fuel produced through co-location would likely be between the value
estimated for co-processing at 5% feedstock replacement and the volume for a full refinery conversion.
Refinery Conversion
Conversion of petroleum refineries into biorefineries is the final option discussed and is a less expensive
option than building a greenfield biorefinery.157 Four U.S. refineries have publicly announced complete
conversions with project costs. This report used the public data to calculate the mean cost of converting a
refinery, normalized to dollars per gallon of renewable fuel. The $2 per gallon calculated value should only be
used for scoping-level analyses as each refinery will have site-specific costs that will change this value
significantly. A survey of the same facilities revealed that the announced renewable fuel scale was
consistently lower than the amount of crude a refinery could process. A mean production ratio was calculated
to be 0.5 (volume/volume). The low and high scenarios analyzed are based on the minimum and maximum
production ratios of 0.2 and 0.7, respectively. No trend was discernable from the public data used to calculate
production ratios; each refinery will have a unique possible biorefinery capacity based on details not available
for use in this study. Table 17 presents the theoretical production volume and conversion costs, respectively,
for three levels of renewable fuel production for the combination of all Washington refineries. Although beyond
the scope of this report, it is also possible for a refinery to complete a partial conversion, which allows a
refinery to refine both crude oil and biogenic carbon in parallel processes.
Table 17: Calculated potential renewable fuel production (billion gal/yr) and
estimated conversion costs at converted Washington refineries for three theoretical
production ratios. These values assume that all refineries convert at each level
without assessing the viability of this choice.
Scenario Low Mean High
Potential fuel production
1.7 4.2 6.5
(billion gallons/year)
Estimated conversion costs
$3.4 $8.5 $13.1
(billion $)
Lipid Feedstocks
Although demand for renewable fuels is expected to grow and stay high through 2050, the current primary
feedstock for petroleum refineries choosing conversion or co-processing is lipids. Other possible feedstocks
are pyrolysis oil and Fischer-Tröpsch crude, but availability, cost, catalysts and additional process
complications limits them. Pyrolysis oil is not currently ASTM-approved for jet fuel; however, it could become a
more prevalent feedstock in the long term. Lipids, especially those with low CI, like used cooking oil (UCO) and
157 de Jong S, Faaij A, Slade R, Mawhood R, and Junginger M, (2015). The feasibility of short-term production strategies for renewable
jet fuels – a comprehensive techno-economic comparison. Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. DOI: 10.1002/bbb.1613 (2015).
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animal tallow, are in high demand and have limited availability. Using vegetable oils, such as soybean or canola
oil, is a higher cost and CI option. The higher CI fuel from vegetable oils often translates into less financial
policy support than lower CI fuels from waste fats. The use of vegetable oil is further limited as some
countries do not count these fuels toward goals or mandates.
On a global scale, inedible tallow production is 23 million tons per year,158 and 13 million tons per year of UCO
are available.159 These are the primary waste feedstocks that will provide considerable GHG reductions.
Eighteen percent of global production of conventional vegetable oils is used for renewable fuels, which is 27
million tons per year, excluding palm oil.160 161 Second-crop oilseeds and oilseed trees planted on marginal
lands could be 90 million tons per year if implemented globally. This sums to a global lipid value of 60 to 150
million tons per year. However, much of this material already has markets, including human and animal feed.
Converting all the lipids to renewable fuels could produce approximately 10 to 30 billion gallons a year of
renewable fuels. Increasing global demand for lipids, the price response to this demand, existing
announcements for additional fuel production, as well as competing uses will need to be included in the
decision-making process at each refinery when considering biofuel production.
Additional Long-Term Options
Although the simplest biofuel production technology to integrate into an existing petroleum refinery is HEFA,
other options are possible in the long-term. These include, but are not limited to, alcohol to jet, pyrolysis,
gasification Fischer-Tröpsch, catalytic hydrothermolysis and power-to-liquids (also known as electro fuels or e-
fuels). Hydrogen is a key input for AJF, renewable diesel, as well as other renewable distillates and each of the
conversion technologies could create demand for green hydrogen. Therefore, the Pacific Northwest Hydrogen
Hub could support creating a green hydrogen industry in the state that could be used in fuel production.
Policy Support
If Washington refineries decide to pursue the production of renewable fuels, a significant source of revenue
will be from policy support. The values of market-based policies vary significantly; the numbers used in this
report represent historical values that may vary in the future. For the policies that require CI scores to estimate
values, CORSIA core LCA and ILUC values were used in the calculations.162 The ability for a specific fuel to
qualify for policy support requires detailed analyses; the generalized values in this report should not be used to
make financial decisions.
U.S. Pacific Coast State Policy
California, Oregon and Washington all have state policies that financially support the use of biofuels and other
low carbon or sustainable fuels. California’s LCFS was the first state policy implemented, and with the large
California fuel demand, it dominates renewable fuel volumes compared to Oregon and Washington.163 LCFS
issues credits to fuel producers with a fuel CI lower than the annual target, and the credit is traded at market
value. Oregon’s Clean Fuel Program (CFP) and Washington’s CFS function similar to LCFS.164 163 The value of
these market-based policies changes with demand, significantly impacting renewable fuel producer revenue.
Although California does not always have the highest credit price, the fuel demand, existing supply chains and
158 ICAO, LTAG Data Spreadsheet (2022).
159 WEF, and McKinsey & Company, "Clean Skies for Tomorrow Sustainable Aviation Fuels as a Pathway to Net-Zero Aviation" (2020).
160 OCED-FAO, OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 (2024).
161 USDA, Oilseeds: World Market and Trade (2024).
162 ICAO, CORSIA Default Life Cycle Emissions Values for CORSIA Eligible Fuels (2022).
163 Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, “Oregon Clean Fuels Program Overview,” (2024).
164 Washington State Legislature, RCW 70A.30.010 (United States, 2020).
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approved producers translate into renewable fuel volumes that do not quickly switch to other locations.
However, over time it is expected that the credit values and fuel volumes will meet the volumes needed to
meet each state’s GHG reduction laws. Washington has also established production and use tax credits for
AJF under SB 5447 (Chapter 232, Laws of 2023), which provides support for production and use of AJF.
However, the practical value of this policy is small as its value is capped at the B&O tax paid, which is a very
small portion of overall costs for businesses and therefore is not a controlling economic driver.165
180
160
140
Credit Price ($/credit)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
9/21/21 1/29/22 6/8/22 10/16/22 2/23/23 7/3/23 11/10/23 3/19/24 7/27/24
California Oregon Washington
Figure 8: Credit value for LCFS, CFP and CFS from 2022.
U.S. Federal Policy
Two federal policies are likely to influence future biofuel project economics. The first is the renewable fuel
standard (RFS). The RFS pays market-value prices for renewable identification numbers (RINs) issued for each
gallon of fuel produced. The number of RINs issued per gallon varies with the energy density of the fuel. The
value of each RIN is based on the current market and the RIN designation, determined by the fuel production
technology, feedstock and a threshold GHG reduction requirement. RIN designations are D3 (cellulosic), D4
(biomass diesel), D5 (advanced) and D6 (conventional) and the RIN designation assigned to a fuel is tied to
conversion technology, feedstock and fuel CI.166
165 Washington State Committee on Finance, SB 5447 - 2023-24 (2023).
166 EPA, “Approved Pathways for Renewable Fuel,” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Renewable Fuel Standard Program, (2024).
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$4.0
$3.5
$3.0
RIN value ($/credit)
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
7/23/21 2/8/22 8/27/22 3/15/23 10/1/23 4/18/24 11/4/24
D6 D5 D4 D3
Figure 9: RIN value from 2022 for RIN designations D3, D4, D5 and D6.167
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) passed in 2022 includes the Clean Fuel Production Credit, commonly known
as 45Z.162 168 169 This credit is available from 2025 through 2027 for renewable fuels produced in the U.S. with a
CI of less than 50 kg CO2e/MMBtu, if all applicable criteria are met. The value of this credit increases linearly
from $0/gallon for a fuel with a CI of 50 kg CO2e/MMBtu to $1.75/gallon for AJF and $1/gallon for other
transportation fuels if the fuel CI is 0 CO2e/MMBtu. Per the legislation, this credit it is available for co-
processing of Fischer-Tröpsch crude, but not for lipid feedstock. The limited 3-year duration of 45Z is short
relative to the typical timeline required to implement new biorefining capacity.
Stacked U.S. Policies
Producers add the value they receive from all applicable incentives, commonly called stacking. This analysis
assumes that the fuel will stay in Washington, so the state policy used is CFS; nevertheless, producers can
send the fuel to Oregon or California and get similar support. Diesel and AJF are used as examples to
demonstrate the impact of stacking policies, as well as feedstock and process technology choices (Table ). It
is likely that if a refinery is still weighing their options, 45Z will have expired before a refinery conversion could
be completed. Without the impact of 45Z for three years, the small differences in policy value between co-
processing and refinery conversion will have to be compared to required capital costs and operational risks.
167 EPA, “RIN Trades and Price Information,” EPA, (2024).
168 OCED-FAO, OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 (2024).
169 USDA, Oilseeds: World Market and Trade (2024).
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Table 18: Estimated policy support for RFS, WA CFS and 45Z. 45Z is only applicable
from 2025 through 2027. Biorefinery values apply to purpose-built biorefineries or
converted petroleum refineries.
Technology Feedstock Fuel WA CFS ($/gal) RIN ($/gal) 45Z ($/gal
Co-processing UCO Diesel 0.9 2.1 -
Co-processing UCO SAF 0.9 2.0 -
Co-processing soybean oil Diesel 0.4 2.1 -
Co-processing soybean oil SAF 0.4 2.0 -
Conversion to
UCO Diesel 0.9 2.3 0.7
Biorefinery
Conversion to
UCO SAF 0.9 2.1 1.2
Biorefinery
Conversion to
soybean oil Diesel 0.4 2.3 0.1
Biorefinery
Conversion to
soybean oil SAF 0.4 2.1 0.2
Biorefinery
Canada and British Columbia Policies
Renewable fuels sold in British Columbia earn both federal and provincial support, which is relevant for
potentially exporting fuels from Washington refineries. The Canadian Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) is a federal
program supporting GHG reductions in Canada. This program supports fuel based on tCO2e of emissions
avoided. The average price between 2022 and 2023 was $99 (133 CAD)/t CO2e. However, price change is
expected in this relatively new program as the policy matures.
British Columbia has a renewable fuels mandate with a $445 (600 CAD)/tCO2e penalty in 2023, up from the
$148 (200 CAD)/tCO2e previously set for not meeting the mandate. This mandate is paired with a low carbon
fuel standard. This program works similarly to the California, Oregon and Washington programs, with each
credit issued representing one tCO2e emissions reduction. The mean value of the BC low carbon fuel standard
for 2022 through 2024 year to date is $346 (467 CAD)/tCO2e, which is 3-4 times the values of the U.S. Pacific
coast states.
Policy Summary
Stacking the federal with state or provincial policies influences a refinery’s decision to produce and sell
renewable fuels in a specific location. The values of policies vary based on the details of the policy. If the
policy is tied directly to CI, waste feedstocks will create more revenue than purpose-grown crops. In the U.S.,
renewable fuels are sold to states where policies are stacked with federal programs. The same is true in
Canada, where a high credit price makes for an attractive market. However, this is also balanced with the fact
that British Columbia is a smaller overall fuel market compared to places like California. A fuel producer will
need to decide the best location for selling fuels based on existing sales contracts and supply chains, policy
details, CI calculations, duration of policies providing incentives or regulations, local demand and fuel approval
status among other items.
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Projected Scenarios
This section of the report details eight projected scenarios, based on engagement with Washington's
refineries. Draft scenarios were initially constructed to describe possible projected scenarios for the primary
markets of Washington refineries. These were then discussed and improved based on input from refineries
and other members of the project Advisory Committee as described in Appendix A. These scenarios take into
account realistic, real-world outcomes, given existing decarbonization targets, feedstock availability and
statutes that impact Washington refineries. These scenarios are not exclusive, and may happen sequentially.
Scenarios 1 and 2 are unlikely to be sustained across all refineries through 2050 in accordance with
decarbonization targets. Other scenarios may be consistent with state GHG limits at single refineries,
depending on other circumstances across the refinery sector and Washington economy.
All scenarios are based on changes of demand, and differentiate auto, aviation and diesel fuel types. The
scenarios are also based on a decrease in auto fuel, an increase in aviation fuel demand, an increase in
alternative fuel and moderate amounts of diesel use change. These assumptions consider real world
outcomes influenced by decarbonization and regulatory statues affecting the state’s refinery products.
However, these scenarios consider the potential evolutions of an individual refinery, rather than all five in
Washington. Each scenario could happen within the same timeframe as another scenario at different
refineries. Alternatively, multiple scenarios could happen sequentially at one refinery.
In addition to the predications, the following are core assumptions that inform all eight scenarios:
• Refineries can adjust product mix without large capital changes.170 They can swing the product mix
produced based on the incoming crude oil composition and with some process adjustments.
• Exports are outside of Washington (scenarios will specify whether domestic or abroad).
• The geography for distribution of refined petroleum products affects cost effectiveness, and
therefore where refineries sell their product. The Puget Sound region is open to international
markets for some products. Final goods have limited destinations based on market availability and
distribution infrastructure. Every state’s decarbonization path is different.
• Aviation fuel production is central to the market changes, but there are tolerance limits for these
alterations. Barrels of oil have limits on ratio productions for auto, aviation and diesel fuel. The
amount this can change varies from refinery to refinery, based on their crude oil inputs and
technological process. Additionally, refineries are limited by their ability to store and distribute
product. Storage capacity may be a limiting factor for adjusting product mix.
• Changes to the market take substantial time, and market uncertainty will hinder rates of change and
investments.
• Changes to the market will reduce supply resiliency, and there is risk for disruptions in market price.
• The demand of chemical feedstock will impact pricing and product distribution paths. The overall
demand for chemical feedstocks in Washington is lower than other states with higher
concentrations of manufacturing. Profitable production in Washington relies on competitive pricing
with international shipping costs included.
• Consolidation of refinery companies is unlikely due to regulations. Scenarios outline ownership
changes when relevant.
• All refineries are homogenized in the scenarios.
• Marine fuel is not considered within this analysis (or assumed to be held constant) for simplicity.
170 Capital changes refers to investments in infrastructure, such as would be required to convert to alternative fuel production.
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For each scenario, this study projects changes in employment, wages or personal income, refinery profits, job
roles, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), tax revenue and effects on other entities or community development
programs. For the most part, the impacts of the scenarios on the variables could be positive, negative or
unchanged within the time frame under consideration (2024-2050). As is the case in assessing potential future
economic impacts, the longer the timeline assessed, the more uncertainty is introduced. This study assumes
existing laws and policies will remain in force, while recognizing that policies in place at the time of writing
may shift in future years, affecting the projected outcomes. Additionally, the time required for refineries to
adjust operations based on permitting, construction timelines, staff training and other factors can slow
responses to policy and impact compliance with decarbonization goals.
These projections are based on a thorough literature review of studies on the economic impacts of refineries
in the U.S. and our understanding of the relationship between refineries’ operations and key economic
variables. As with any economic projections, the potential economic outcomes may vary over time due to
some fundamental economic changes beyond our model. However, using short-term, medium-term and long-
term frameworks allows this study to capture the effects of scenarios on the economic outcomes at different
time periods.
Although the economic factors considered may not be exhaustive, this list captures the key outcomes the
scenarios may have. The following section of this report, "Projected Impacts of Demand Decline," uses
historical data to quantify the dollar value of the scenarios impacts on relevant economic variables.
The scenarios should be viewed not as stand-alone situations but rather a plausible evolution of change within
the industry as the market and regulatory environment continues to emerge. In essence, the first scenario is far
more likely in the early years, and other scenarios are more likely to occur later in the timeline, potentially after
another scenario has occurred. Therefore, the first scenarios discussed provide information on short-term and
medium-term impacts only, and later ones include long-term impacts as well. As an industry that requires
significant investment and planning, change typically occurs slowly and within a sequence of events rather
than in large disruptive events.
The scenarios are outlined in Table 19. Scenarios 1 and 2 describe minor changes in demand or production.
Scenarios 3, 4 and 6 describe a change in products. Scenarios 5, 6, 7 and 8 describe a change of function for
the refineries. Compliance with GHG emission limits in each scenario would depend on the overall composition
of choices and circumstances at the refineries. These scenarios apply to individual refineries, and compliance
with GHG emission limits is dependent on site specific infrastructure and efficiency.
Table 19: Scenarios, likely time periods, and comments on GHG emissions
compliance.
Scenario In which timeframe is this
Scenario description Comments on compliance with GHG emission limits
Number scenario most likely?
Likely in short term, but time This scenario is most likely in the short term, followed by other
Minor demand changes; limited. Other scenarios may scenarios. It is unlikely to be compliant with tightened GHG
1
shift in product mix occur after this scenario emission allowances over time, and will likely lead to other
ends. scenarios.
Minor demand changes;
2 Likely in short term, but time This scenario is most likely in the short term, followed by other
increase in exports
limited. Other scenarios may scenarios. It is unlikely to be compliant with tightened GHG
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 57
Scenario In which timeframe is this
Scenario description Comments on compliance with GHG emission limits
Number scenario most likely?
occur after this scenario emission allowances over time, and will likely lead to other
ends. scenarios.
This scenario is likely in the medium and long term, and is likely
to follow Scenarios 1 or 2 as businesses adjust to a changing
Change in products;
Likely in medium and long market and produce alternative fuels. This could extend to a
3 Joint venture/Co-
term. total conversion of facility capacity to alternative fuels, or a
Location
portion of capacity. Reduced emissions may result from lower
production capacity and lower CI of alternative fuels.
This scenario is likely in the medium and long term, based on
Change in products; Fully the needed changes to infrastructure required. It may follow a
Likely in medium and long
4 alternative fuel period of closure as refineries change equipment to produce
term.
production alternative fuels. Reduced emissions may result from lower
production capacity and lower CI of alternative fuels.
This scenario is possible in all time frames, if refineries utilize
existing infrastructure. This could be an end point as refineries
Change in function; Tank
5 Likely in all time frames transition use, or a middle stage followed by other scenarios.
farm or storage facility
The scenario may be compliant due to a reduction in emissions
as production stops or decreases.
This scenario is likely in all time frames, as refineries may have
Change in function and
existing infrastructure for this type of change. It may be
6 products; Combination Likely in all time frames
compliant with GHG emission limits based on production
of Scenarios 3 and 5
changes described in Scenarios 3 and 5.
This change is compliant with GHG emission limits, as facilities
Change in function; would have no emissions with closure. This scenario may be
Most likely in the medium
7 Closure and followed by Scenarios 3, 4, or 5 if workforce is reduced with a
and long term.
redevelopment change in operations and significant changes to infrastructure
are needed.
Change in function; This scenario is likely compliant with GHG emissions limits, as
Most likely in the medium
9 Closure and no most alternative future uses have lower GHG emissions,
and long term.
redevelopment excluding energy generation.
Later sections of this report will discuss in depth the projected impacts of these scenarios on workers,
included in the workforce analysis focused on petroleum refining and potential alternative industries in Chapter
4. For each scenario, information is provided describing key aspects as well as high-level commentary about
economic impacts. Specific numeric calculations regarding the economic impacts are provided in the
"Projected Impacts of Demand Decline" section. It is important to be aware of the fact that these analyses
focus only on the potential changes in the refinery sector and not the broader ways in which the rest of the
economy might experience changes alongside or to respond to these.
Each scenario also includes an economic viability assessment. Under the assumption that Washington will
reach net zero targets by 2050, it is likely that all refineries will experience a change in product or function.
The following analysis outlines what impacts may be seen in the short, long and medium terms of 2026,
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 58
2035 and 2050 for each scenario outlined earlier. All scenarios may be followed by other scenarios, as
multiple changes may occur over the assessed period. Each scenario is analyzed through impacts to
employment, wages and personal income, job switching, refinery profit, GDP and tax revenue.
Scenario 1: Minor demand changes; shift in product mix
Scenario 1 can be understood as “business as usual” for refinery production with a few exceptions. Production
levels have not shifted, but the type of fuel produced has changed to a moderate degree. Auto fuel demand
has declined, and there is an increase in diesel production, with most exported out of state. Additionally,
conventional aviation fuel increases production and is expected to be consumed locally. The high-level
impacts of these changes are a decrease in tax revenue for Washington in the form of road and retail and
sales (R&S) taxes, as gas tax income drops in conjunction with demand. The impact of Washington’s decrease
in demand for auto fuel is absorbed by other changes, as other fuel types increase, but tax revenues within the
state may decrease overall because some are tied directly to petroleum product production at present.
This scenario forecasts that demand for auto fuel will decrease and demand for aviation fuel will increase in
Washington and that refineries will respond by shifting production accordingly. Refineries have a certain
amount they can adjust their production without changing inputs and with limited technological changes to the
production process. While this amount varies refinery to refinery based on their process and inputs, a certain
amount of “swing” is available that can allow refineries to produce more or less of a certain fuel type.
Constraints for the refineries can include storage facilities on site and ability to adjust distribution pathways
for final products.
The impacts of this shift will likely be most prominent in the short term: As refineries adapt to new levels of
demand, there will likely be temporary inefficiencies and disruptions. These temporary disruptions could be as
minor as slight drops in refinery profit or as severe as modest layoffs. The medium and long-term conditions
will likely be more stable as refineries and the state adapt to new demand and production levels. It is possible
that there will be growth in key variables in the medium and long term, especially as the aviation fuel market
continues to grow.
The refineries may make investments to decarbonize their existing operations, such as efficiency upgrades or
production/procurement of cleaner feedstocks such as green electrolytic as opposed to fossil-derived
hydrogen, as part of compliance with current state climate and clean fuels laws. Refineries may also already
be engaging in some circular production, using relevant outputs to fuel the production of more profitable
products. These investments may be expensive and impact other aspects of this scenario.
This scenario is likely time limited and followed by another scenario. As such, it is only analyzed in the short
and medium term. Scenario 2 is also analyzed in the short and medium term, with all following scenarios
analyzed through the long term.
Economic Viability Assessment
This scenario contains analysis that has been provided for the short and medium term. This scenario is much
more likely in the earlier stages of transition and may be followed by other scenarios. In the short term, there
is potential for initial disruptions to employment or layoffs as auto fuel production decreases and refineries
begin to produce more aviation fuel. Employees who are not cross trained on multiple units within refineries
may be more at risk. Wages may also be impacted through decreased hours or layoffs during the transition
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 59
period. Staffing may remain the same over time as refineries shift product mix, as significant refinery
reconfiguration is unlikely in this scenario. Refinery profits may temporarily decrease to initial inefficiencies or
transition costs. A drop in auto fuel use could decrease GDP as refineries' contribution to state GDP may
decline due to a potential disruption in profit. Retail and sale tax revenue and fuel tax revenue, among others,
may decrease some.
In the medium term, overall stability in employment may improve. Reduction of workforce is more likely in the
medium term as efficiencies improve and refineries respond to demand changes. Retrofitting or construction
jobs related to efficiency upgrades may provide some temporary increases in employment. As workers resume
normal shift schedules and full production, wages may recover and stabilize. Profit is expected to stabilize as
inefficiencies decrease, employees become more specialized and procedures are streamlined. As profitability
increases, there may be a positive impact to GDP, if the jet fuel market expands. However, based on the timing
and size of this impact, it may not outweigh the impact to GDP of lost automotive fuel production. Changes in
tax revenue will likely balance out and other methods of supporting road maintenance may be implemented to
account for decreases in fuel tax revenue. These changes are highly dependent on the timing and size of
changes at the refinery, and may lead to other later scenarios.
Scenario 2: Minor demand changes; increase in exports
Scenario 2 differentiates demand regionally. Similar to Scenario 1, this scenario forecasts that conventional
auto fuel usage decreases, but in this scenario, the drop is primarily local to Washington. It assumes that there
is an increase in the export of conventional auto fuel domestically, but exports abroad do not shift
dramatically. This is attributed to the significant costs of shipping fuel and availability of other international
suppliers. There are some fluctuations with aviation and diesel, but the significant changes occur only with
auto fuel demands.
This scenario forecasts that demand for auto fuel decreases locally but refineries will continue to produce
conventional auto fuel at comparable levels with the excess production being transported to other states or
regions. These two effects (decrease in local demand and increase in exports) tend to have opposite effects,
making many future changes largely dependent on the relative sizes and timing of these effects. For example,
state GDP and refinery profit would likely fall if the effect of decreased local demand outweighs the increased
export demand, resulting in a net zero change. However, GDP and refinery profit would likely rise if export
demand is greater than the local decrease in demand. Local sales and domestic exports of conventional auto
fuels have differing costs of transportation, likely meaning that an increase in exports would have to outweigh
the added transportation costs.
This is also impacted by shifting policies in the region. Different regions require different fuel specifications,
meaning that not every area can import the same type of fuel mix. Additionally, the closure or conversion of
refineries in other areas may increase the demand for exports from refineries, making it more profitable for
refineries to export conventional auto fuel domestically.
Since the size and timing of the effects is unknown, some predictions are difficult to make. Changes to
employment will likely be similar to those for Scenario 1, with added potential for new roles in auto fuel export.
Given the maintained production levels, positions in operations and production are unlikely to be significantly
affected. However, positions across local fuel distribution networks may be affected as distribution is
consolidated or retailers become dependent on other revenue as auto fuel sales decrease. Additionally,
positions related to long distance distribution of auto fuel may increase as exports increase. This is dependent
upon the volume and capacity of current distribution networks and is more likely to occur in the medium term
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 60
due to infrastructure requirements. Currently, fuel products are moved via land and water using a variety of
methods, which require differing infrastructures.
Changes in tax revenue will also be similar to Scenario 1. Expected revenue from the production of relevant
fuels is not expected to decrease significantly, but a drop in retail and sales taxes due to a drop in local
demand is likely.
As with Scenario 1, this is not expected to be a long-term position but rather a likely early transitory stage as
the industry continues to adapt to a changing market and regulatory environment.
Economic Viability Assessment
Similar to Scenario 1, this scenario is analyzed in the short and medium term. This scenario reflects a
change in demand in Washington, with an increase in exports to other regions. This is not expected to be a
long-term position, but rather a transitory stage as the industry continues to adapt to a changing market and
regulatory environment.
In the short term, adjustments to employment are expected, with some potential for layoffs. Local jobs related
to distribution, or the sale of gasoline may be negatively impacted, while positions related to distribution
across the region may increase. However, utilization of existing systems, such as the Olympic Pipeline or
loading of marine vessels in both directions may decrease any potential positive job effects from increased
exports of fuel. It is likely that the existing number of jobs may be maintained due to the utilization of existing
distribution system capacity. With this disruption, there is some potential for changes or decreases to personal
income and wages reflected in decreased hours or layoffs. Changes to refinery profit and GDP will depend on
the relative sizes and timing of local drops in auto fuel usage and the costs of increased exports. Shifts away
from local auto fuel use will likely decrease fuel tax revenue, alongside retail and sales tax revenue from
decreased local sales.
In the medium term, it is expected that employment levels should stabilize as new roles related to distribution
and export develop. However, this stabilization is likely to Wages may increase if export markets remain
profitable but may fall if they do not. Changes to refinery profit will be highly dependent on the costs of export
and may improve with the development of cost effective infrastructure. The relative sizes and timing of these
changes will also affect refinery profit, which will be reflected in the changes to GDP. If there were an extreme
drop in auto fuel use, fuel tax revenue would sharply decrease. This may prompt the adoption of other policies
to support road maintenance.
Scenario 3: Change in products; Joint venture/Co-Location
Scenario 3 forecasts that there could be new production of alternative jet fuel (AJF), renewable diesel fuel or
other alternative fuels as a result of the decrease in conventional auto fuel demand. In this scenario, refineries
add a business unit, likely by co-locating or establishing joint ventures. An example of this kind of venture is
the Marathon Martinez refinery in California. The project, called Martinez Renewables 171 is a joint venture
171 Marathon News Releases, “Marathon Petroleum Corp Announces Closing of Martinez Renewables JV with Neste”, September 21,
2022. Marathon Petroleum Corp Announces Closing of Martinez Renewables JV with Neste | Marathon Petroleum Corporation
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 61
between Marathon Petroleum Corp and Neste. The venture plans to split costs of feedstock and conversion
between the two firms and is targeted to help support California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS).
This scenario would be more likely to occur if incentives are present for the new market. Examples of these
incentives include California’s LCFS and other increases in regulation such as Cap-and-Trade programs that
limit and establish a system to pay for allowances associated with GHG emissions.172 Scenario 3 homogenizes
the state’s refineries and largely takes decarbonization targets into account. Washington's Clean Fuel Standard
and Cap-and-Invest policies that came into effect more recently (January 2023) are also already having
impacts on the state’s fuel systems and economy.
This scenario, as well as others relating to new fuel types, can take many forms. It is likely the industry will
transition over time and new sources will bridge fuel gaps rather than fully replace current systems.
Additionally, these transitions are impacted by zoning and permitting regulations. For example, refineries
housed in Whatcom County are subject to a policy that prohibits the building of new conventional petroleum
refineries, transshipment facilities and other industrial infrastructure in their coastal industrial zone.173 This
policy has already prompted a refinery to withdraw from plans to build a renewable diesel plant in Whatcom,
alongside their existing conventional fuel plant.174 However, the policy does not prohibit the development of
alternative fuel refineries as a permitted use in the High Impact Industrial (HII) zone, dependent on an
evaluation of impacts to Whatcom residents.175
This scenario is more likely in the medium- and long-term phases evaluated due to the investment and market
evolutions required. The permitting process alone for the construction and alteration of current facilities takes
a significant amount of time in addition to the time it takes to build new infrastructure.
Employees and workers will likely see the greatest impacts in this scenario. The expansion of facilities and the
pursuit of new ventures may create temporary positions in construction or retrofit of facilities. However, in the
long term, employment is likely to remain stable or decrease, as the capacity for alternative fuels is sharply
limited by feedstock availability and technology. The addition or alteration of current operating units to include
alternative co-processing could result in retraining of existing employees or new positions. Additionally, some
distribution jobs may be created as infrastructure develops to help move alternative feedstocks to refineries.
These considerations are highly dependent upon the refineries’ existing infrastructure. In theory, these
changes could be seen at just one of the refineries or at all of them. This uncertainty greatly impacts the
overall scale of each impact and makes more precise impacts difficult to project. The environmental impact of
this scenario is significant. The decrease in auto fuel use will have effects on local air quality, and a shift to
alternative fuels will largely decrease overall emissions from the state. However, this is dependent upon the
assumption that alternative feedstocks capture an equivalent or greater amount of carbon to the usage of their
final product.
172 Green Car Congress. “Clean fuels replaced more than 50% of the diesel used in California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)
program, largely responsible for the decline in transportation emissions from the program.” Published on August 24, 2023. Accessed
on May 3, 2024. https://www.greencarcongress.com/2023/08/20230824-
lcfs.html#:~:text=Clean%20fuels%20replaced%20more%20than%2050%25%20of%20the%20diesel%20used,is%20largely%20responsibl
e%20for%20the
173 The Energy Mix, “Whatcom County Became First U.S. Refinery Community to Ban New Fossil Fuel Infrastructure”, December 27,
2021.
174 Phillips 66 News Releases. “Phillips 66 and Renewable Energy Group Withdraw Renewable Diesel Project in Washington State”,
January 21, 2020.
175 Whatcom County Council, "Adopting Amendments to the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan and Whatcom County Code Relating
to the Cherry Point UGA, Fossil Fuel Facilities, Renewable Fuel Facilities, Piers, SEPA, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Matters".
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Economic Viability Assessment
Scenario 3 forecasts that there could be new production of alternative jet fuel (AJF), renewable diesel fuel or
other sustainable or alternative fuels as a result of the decrease in conventional auto fuel demand. Fuel
production in this scenario can take many forms, especially as the industry transitions over time. This
scenario is analyzed in the short, medium and long term, with the understanding that it may be part of
multiple changes to the industry, rather than a final destination for the industry.
In the short term, there may be initial disruptions to employment as refineries begin to engage in joint ventures
and shift production types, which may also disrupt wages for workers through decreased hours. Works may
change roles as alternative production increases and auto fuel demand drops. This may trigger layoffs or
employees transitioning to other units following a retraining period. High costs related to development,
restructuring or co-location may initially reduce profit. This may also be reflected in changes to GDP, as the
timing and relative sizes of effects from capital investment and declining fuel tax revenue act in opposite
directions. Shifts away from local auto fuel use will decrease fuel tax revenue, while new facilities and capital
investments may contribute to increase in property tax revenues.
In the medium term, employment may be boosted as facilities are retrofitted or constructed for alternative fuel
production. Retained employees will likely require retraining as new units come online and need operators. As
a reflection of this, wages may become more stable or increase depending on the profitability and demand for
new and specialized skills related to shifting operations. New roles in alternative fuel production may be filled
from the existing workforce or new hires. As joint ventures are established and the alternative fuels market
expands, refineries may experience increases to profit. Changes to GDP will again depending on the timing and
relative sizes of effects. However, as the market for alternative fuels stabilize and grow, GDP may increase.
Consumption tax revenue may increase as demand for alternative fuels continues to grow, supplementing fuel
tax revenue. However, this may not outweigh the declines to fuel tax revenue based on auto fuel sales.
Continued changes to facility infrastructure may impact property tax revenues.
In the long term, employment and job switching are expected to stabilize. A long term increase in wages may
result from expanded operations, demand for specialized skills and improving profitability of alternative fuels.
All things being equal, it is expected that profits will increase compared to Scenarios one and two, particularly
if the alternative fuels market continues to be profitable, contributing to positive effects on GDP. Tax revenue
will likely stabilize in the long term, dependent on the size and timing of refinery stability. Incentives for
alternative fuel production may lower tax revenue, even with increased fuel production. However, these
incentives are likely impermanent, and will phase out over time, such as the Clean Fuels Production Credit. The
Clean Fuels Production Credit, or 45Z, is only available from 2025 to 2027.
Scenario 4: Change in products; Fully alternative production
Scenario 4 forecasts that there could be new ownership of refinery facilities and refineries could change
production completely to the production of alternative fuels. Change of ownership is possible with every
scenario, but within this scenario especially. This could include green hydrogen production, AJF production or
other similar fuels.
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The Rodeo facility of Phillips 66, a San Francisco refinery, is an example of a refinery that made this transition
to meet growing demands for alternative fuels.176 However, this has long-term impacts on local distribution
networks and any “sister refinery” upstream of a converted refinery. The Rodeo facility consisted of two linked
refineries, the Santa Maria and Rodeo refineries. The Rodeo Renewed project, which converted the Rodeo
facility, subsequently shut down operations at the Santa Maria refinery. The Santa Maria refinery was
positioned upstream of the Rodeo facility, providing intermediate products that were upgraded into a final
product at the Rodeo refinery. The Santa Maria facility is now slated for demolition and remediation, pending
permitting.
This scenario will likely have extreme effects on employment. In California, a similar transition led to hundreds
of layoffs and forced workers to relocate and take lower paying jobs.177 This can be attributed to the
significantly more limited production capabilities of biorefineries. This is in part due to feedstock availability
and technological capability. Smaller refineries are more primed for conversion to biorefineries due to their
smaller existing capacity. Previous refinery capacity has declined anywhere from 70-85% when converting to
alternative fuel production, although some refineries saw smaller capacity losses after conversion. This
indicates that the limitations to feedstock supply and current size of the market for alternative fuels means
new biorefineries tend to be operating at lower capacity than a conventional refinery. It is possible that in
future with more secure feedstock supply, technological improvements and growing demand, the number of
jobs supported and the economic impacts of a biorefining operation could more closely approximate the
economic impacts of conventional refineries in Washington.
The extreme change in production type will likely also affect GDP and tax revenues, although the expected
negative effects will likely dissipate over time. Refinery profit will likely drop in the short term as there are
temporary shutdowns and large investments made, but profitability too can be expected to improve over time.
This scenario would have the most positive effects for the environment in the form of decreased greenhouse
gas emissions and improved air quality.
As in scenario 3, this is more likely in the medium- and long-term phases evaluated due to the market
evolutions required. In order for this scenario to occur, a current operator would need to conclude their current
operations no longer meet their return-on-investment requirements and that a new operator must see a likely
acceptable return on investment. Additionally, petroleum refinery operations typically make changes on a
timeline of decades, rather than years, due to permitting and scale of infrastructure changes. Refineries with
existing transferable infrastructure can transition to producing alternative fuels much faster than refineries
that have to build new infrastructure. Alternative fuels have lower CIs than conventional fuels based on lower
lifecycle emissions,178 but their emissions from production may be maintained or increased.179 Alternative fuel
production may release greater amounts of hazardous emissions than conventional refineries,179and evolving
process safety management has resulted in safety concerns.180 Worker safety considerations for alternative
fuel production are discussed in Chapter 4. Alternative fuel production may maintain the existing
environmental, cultural, and treaty impacts as conventional fuel production.
176 Phillips 66. “San Francisco Refinery.” Accessed on May 3, 2024.
177 Labor Center UC Berkeley. “Fossil fuel layoff: The economic and employment effects of a refinery closure on workers in the Bay
Area.” April 26, 2023. Accessed on May 16, 2024.
178 Environmental Protection Agency, "Economics of Biofuels", March 15, 2024.
179 Environmental Integrity Project, "Farm to Fumes- Hazardous Air Pollution from Biofuel Production", June 12, 2024.
180 California Occupation Safety and Health Standards Board, “Proposed Petition Decision of the Occupational Safety and Health
Standards Board (Petition File No. 601)”, June 20, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 64
Economic Viability Assessment
This scenario involves the transition of total refinery capacity to produce alternative fuels and could include
new ownership of refinery facilities. Based on examples out of California, conversion to alternative fuel can
have extreme impacts on employment as described in the Scenarios section. This scenario is analyzed in the
short, medium and long term and may require an initial closure of facilities during retrofitting or construction
of alternative fuel production infrastructure.
In the short term, this scenario is expected to severely disrupt employment. This could involve the layoff of
between 70% to 80% of employees or an even greater proportion of employees during the construction or
retrofit of facilities to support alternative fuels production. Previous examples have involved the closure of
refineries for years as changes are made to support biofuel production. Some construction jobs may be
supported by in the short term as old infrastructure is dismantled or retrofitted. For retained employees, there
may be a decrease in hours as units are retrofitted, in addition to the decrease in overall wages due to laid off
workers. This scenario likely has reduced profits in the short term due to capital investments required to
convert a conventional petroleum refinery to a biofuel refinery. These investments in new technologies and
infrastructures may counteract the effects of layoffs on GDP, resulting in maintained or even slightly increased
GDP. Some tax revenues, such as the oil spill tax, petroleum products tax or hazardous substance tax would
decrease as production stops. Property tax revenue changes will be dependent upon the valuation of new
infrastructure at refineries.
In the medium term, employment may increase as biofuel production begins and increases over time. It is
unlikely that this will match the previous employment levels of conventional petroleum refineries, but some
workers may return as operators for biofuel production. Similarly, construction jobs may peak before or during
this period as changes are completed and maintenance returns to a more intermittent schedule. Wages may
remain diminished for displaced refinery employees as they seek to transition into other industries, as many
workers may not return after layoffs. Additionally, workers may seek to transition to clean energy sector. At
this time, refineries may see increased profits as production expands and demand for alternative fuels grows.
Investments in distribution systems for alternative fuels may affect profit. Compliance with decarbonization
efforts may result in sales of carbon credits between refineries. It is expected that tax revenues will stabilize if
alternative fuel revenue is stable and profitable. Changes to property tax revenue may continue to change
based on changes to infrastructure.
In the long term, employment will likely stabilize at the diminished rate. Overall, employment will depend on the
demand for biofuels, as production changes in response. Wages will likely also stabilize, consistent with
positions in conventional fuel production. It is likely displaced workers will continue to seek positions in the
clean energy sector as it expands and stabilizes in response to increased demand. Refineries may expect to
see increased profit as demand for alternative fuels grows, particularly if other states move away from
conventional auto fuel in the long term. Effects on GDP should be positive as alternative fuel markets stabilize
and grow, with expected increases to tax revenue as well.
Scenario 5: Change in function; Tank farm or storage facility
Scenario 5 forecasts the conversion of part of a refinery site for either holding finished goods or acting as a
waypoint for crude oil as a tank farm. This would mean that refining operations would cease, as crude or
unrefined products are passed through from Washington for refining and use in other jurisdictions. Similar to
Scenarios 3 and 4, this scenario has the predicated demand changes in addition to a change in products.
Similar to Scenarios 6 and 7, this scenario incorporates drastic changes in refinery operation and function.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 65
Due to the number of market-based or regulatory changes that must occur before the underlying business
model implications would be met this scenario is not forecasted to become likely until late in the medium-term
or long-term horizons. There could be implications before the steps would be taken, however, as each
individual operator makes strategic decisions to maintain their required return on investment. Business
operations may continue at lower production levels or they may cease outright. The ownership of the tank
farms and production sites may remain the same, but employment in the refineries would significantly drop.
One example of this includes the conversion of a Phillips 66 refinery in Belle Chasse, Louisiana into a terminal
facility 181 that was then acquired by Harvest Midstream.182
The Belle Chasse terminal transition resulted in layoffs at the approximately 500 full time employees and 400
contractors at the site. Four hundred and seventy employees were laid off in the wake of the refinery closure in
2022, with the layoffs expected to be permanent.183 Any conversion of existing refineries to storage facilities
can reasonably expected to significantly decrease employment at the site. The Belle Chasse example also
comes in the wake of significant damages after Hurricane Ida, affecting the viability of the refinery based on
cost of repairs.
The required ratio or range of storage to production space to keep business operations profitable would need
to be investigated. Additionally, there are limitations on the construction of new storage tanks based on a
variety of safety standards. A refinery in Australia experienced this shift, as after its closing it began operating
as a waypoint for crude oil and imports.183 This altered worker placement and transportation costs for the
industry. This scenario assumes the value of land and space to manufacture is constant or has decreased, as
an increase could make this transition unaffordable.
To some extent, refineries may already serve or plan to serve as waypoints for other petroleum products. The
Phillips 66 Ferndale refinery has completed modifications to existing structures to allow the receipt, storage
and distribution of renewable diesel using existing truck and rail loading facilities.184 The project plans to
repurpose and existing diesel tank for renewable diesel storage, and take advantage of the facilities ability to
receive product via marine vessel. However, this is a smaller change than the scenario described above, as the
proposal both involves no new storage tanks, and production at the facility is ongoing.
Economic Viability Assessment
Scenario 5 reflects the conversion of a refinery in total or in part to a tank farm or storage facility, either to
hold finished goods or crude oil. This would reflect in either a reduction or stoppage of refining operations,
as the facility is used to move products to other facilities or around the region. This scenario is more likely in
the medium term or long-term horizon, based on the required market based or regulatory changes that could
prompt this scenario.
In the short term, this could have extreme effects on employment, with large scale layoffs of employees. Some
increases in employment could result from construction jobs as a facility is converted. Wages would likely
decrease significantly as workers transfer to other facilities or industries, while retained employees may see
no changes to wages. Profits for refineries would likely decline but stabilize as costs of operations decrease
and operation as a waypoint increases. This scenario is expected to significantly reduce revenue as taxes
181 Anthony McAuley, “Phillips 66 to Shutter Alliance Refinery, Convert It to Fuel Terminal; 900 Jobs in Jeopardy,” Nola.com, Nov. 8,
2021; Phillips 66, “Phillips 66 to Convert Alliance Refinery to Terminal Facility,” Nov. 8, 2021,
182 Harvest Midstream. “About Us: History, Our Story” Accessed June 25, 2024.
183 William Taylor Potter, “Nearly 500 employees to be laid off from Belle Chasse Phillips 66 refinery”, November 29, 2021.
184 Phillips 66, "Ferndale Refinery Renewable Diesel Infrastructure Project Narrative", July 7, 2023.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 66
related to production of petroleum products decrease, and changes to infrastructure may shift property tax
revenue. GDP is expected to decline initially as production declines or ceases.
In the medium term, temporary construction jobs may peak, and significant reduction or total elimination of
production jobs may be complete. Tax revenue is expected to stabilize, potentially with a sustained decline.
Wages for displaced workers may stabilize at lower rates, and retained workers may see maintained wages
provided oil demand supports the facility.
In the long term, any declines described above may be sustained or stabilized. Displaced workers may seek
positions in the clean energy sector or at other refineries. Changes to tax revenue, GDP and refinery profits
may stabilize, dependent on demand for oil and facility operations.
Scenario 6: Change in function and products; Combination of Scenarios
3 and 5
Scenario 6 forecasts that refineries might convert to production of sustainable fuels, such as AJF and/or
renewable diesel. In addition, they might convert some of the current production space to become a storage or
waypoint facility exporting petroleum products throughout the region. This is a combination of Scenarios 3 and
5.
For this scenario to become viable, a number of conditions would likely need to be met which would take a
substantial amount of time to achieve. For example, demand for sustainable fuels would have to increase
significantly and production by other suppliers would have to be insufficient, creating an opportunity and
incentive for refineries to step in. Refineries would also have to conclude that the return on investment of their
current production is insufficient, and demand for conventional fuels would have to decrease significantly in
the coming years or decades.
Economic Viability Assessment
Scenario 6 describes a dual change at a refinery, wherein parts of the facility are converted for biofuel
production and storage. This scenario is a combination of Scenarios 3 and 5 and is likely to have significant
impacts to employment.
In the short term, it is expected that there will be initial job losses based on a transition from conventional fuel
production to sustainable fuel production. There is some potential for construction and retrofitting positions to
increase as facilities change use to support this transition. Additional storage facilities may also be developed,
also driving this construction work. Retained workers can expect to maintain wages, but displaced workers are
likely to place into lower paying positions. Depending on the stage of career for displaced workers, they may
retrain into sustainable fuels production, jobs in the clean energy sector or transition into an early retirement.
The high costs of restructuring operations and infrastructure are likely to negatively impact refinery
infrastructure. The decline in production volume may decrease associated tax revenues, in addition to tax
incentives utilized to support a transition to alternative fuels. The contribution to the State's GDP will depend
on the volume of sustainable fuel production and is likely to decrease due to capacity limitations.
In the medium term, the net effect of jobs created by transition to sustainable fuel production could be
positive, driven by the construction of new infrastructure or changes to existing infrastructure. Wages for
workers who retrain into sustainable fuel production will likely have completed training for full operator pay
rather than trainee pay. Displaced workers may have also completed retraining for new positions and see
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 67
some increase in wages, unlikely to match wages from conventional fuel production. Profits may rebound
depending on demand for sustainable fuel and utilization of tax incentives. Tax revenue may remain low or
rebound some. Tax revenue from storage operations may not offset tax revenue lost from the reduced
production post transition, and incentives for sustainable fuel production may still be in place. Changes in GDP
will demand on the volume of sustainable fuel production and overall activities at the converted facilities.
In the long term, each of these variables is likely to stabilize as operations become more stable, with some
sustained decreases. Refinery profits may initially continue to improve in this time period as initial high costs
begin to decline and incentives for sustainable fuel are utilized. Tax revenue may also increase as some tax
incentives for sustainable fuel expire. Technological improvements and feedstock availability may also result
in improvements to employment levels and GDP over time.
Scenario 7: Change in function: Closure and redevelopment
Scenario 7 is the closure of refinery facilities, with expected redevelopment. This scenario requires cleanup of
refinery sites and transition of use. Heavy manufacturing sites must meet significant property remediation
requirements before any redevelopment projects could move forward. Workers would relocate to new
occupations, industries or regions, outlined in the workforce analysis section of this report. The tax base would
change significantly in Washington. Legislative changes, business shifts and new development would occur
across the region.
This scenario may be less likely to occur in the short term than previous scenarios but could occur if the
underlying business requirements cannot be met by an operator. This is more likely in the long term after other
possible operational modifications to production or function have been considered or attempted. For this
scenario to occur, the refineries would have to conclude that their facilities have little or no potential to be
profitable. A lack of profitability may result from too little demand for refinery products or increasingly
stringent environmental policies, for example related to the cost of purchasing emissions allowances or of
complying with clean fuels standards. Strong incentives for producers and investors to transition into the clean
energy market or breakthroughs in clean energy and electric vehicle technology may also lead to the
shutdowns described in this scenario.
Potential uses for refinery sites after closure are discussed in greater detail within Chapter 5 of this report.
Economic Viability Assessment
The scenario covers the closure of refinery facilities, with expected redevelopment by alternative industries
after remediation activities are completed. This scenario would have extreme impacts on employees,
potentially prompting relocation into new occupations or industries. Workers who remain in the refining
industry may transfer to other facilities in the region or even outside of it.
In the short term, employment would sharply decline. Some workers may be laid off at a later interval than
others as demolition or transition of the site may involve some short-term work. This would have a negative
impact to wages, prompting job switching as workers find new positions in other refineries, industries or even
regions. There would be no profit for the refineries in this situation and even potential losses based on the cost
of site remediation. Dramatic declines to local and state tax revenue would occur as all taxes related to
production and assessed value of the site stop collection. GDP would be negatively impacted as operations
cease.
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In the medium term, employment is expected to be at zero. Some positions may result from remediation
activities, and planning for alternative site use may be underway. At this point, displaced workers will have
transitioned into other industries or facilities. The site may contribute to some tax revenue from material costs
used for remediation, but overall, no contribution to tax revenue and GDP is expected.
In the long term, employment is expected to remain low as monitoring of remediation efforts takes place.
Alternative site usage may be in development, prompting construction and planning jobs as facilities are
constructed. Overall, no expected contributions to GDP or tax revenue for a site undergoing remediation. Sites
under development may contribute to GDP or tax revenue during construction activities or as new ventures are
established.
Scenario 8: Change in function: Closure and no redevelopment
Scenario 8 is closure of refinery facilities, with remediation and no redevelopment for industrial use. Heavy
manufacturing sites have significant property remediation and support of redevelopment. Workers would
relocate to new occupations, industries or regions, as outlined in Chapter 4 of this report. Similar to Scenario 7,
the tax base would change significantly in Washington. Legislative changes and business shifts would occur
across the region.
This scenario may be less likely to occur in the short term than previous scenarios but could occur if the
underlying business requirements cannot be met by an operator. This is more likely in the extreme long term
after all possible operational modifications have been attempted.
For this scenario to occur, the refineries would have to conclude that their facilities have little or no potential to
be profitable. Additionally, conversion to another use would have to not be viable, based on local permitting
and zoning regulations. The sites could remain as habitat preserves or conservation-aimed uses. Additionally,
several of the refineries are built on sites with cultural significance to local tribal nations, who are impacted by
the presence of the refineries. Due to being located on sites of cultural significance, a return to tribal
ownership is considered in alternative uses for refinery sites. Additional potential benefits to surrounding
communities as a result of decreased pollutants are discussed within Chapter 5.
Economic Viability Assessment
This scenario is similar to Scenario 7, but without redevelopment of the site. In this scenario, the sites may
be remediated with the goal of habitat preservation or conservation. Additionally, these sites may be
remediated over time to a level where safe usage for cultural practices and harvesting on usual and
accustomed land is possible.
In the short term, employment would sharply decline. Some workers may be laid off at a later interval than
others as demolition or transition of the site may involve some short-term work. This would have a negative
impact to wages, prompting job switching as workers find new positions in other refineries, industries or even
regions. There would be no profit for the refineries in this situation and even potential losses based on the cost
of site remediation. Dramatic declines to local and state tax revenue would occur as all taxes related to
production and assessed value of the site stop collection. GDP would be negatively impacted as operations
cease.
In the medium term, employment is expected to be at zero. Some positions may result from remediation
activities, and planning for alternative site use may be underway. At this point, displaced workers will have
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 69
transitioned into other industries or facilities. The site may contribute to some tax revenue from material costs
used for remediation, but overall no contribution to tax revenue and GDP is expected. Some long-term
maintenance for monitoring and habitat development may begin as remediation activities begin. In the long
term, employment is expected to remain low as monitoring of remediation efforts takes place. Overall, no
expected contributions to GDP or tax revenue is expected for a site undergoing remediation or being
monitored.
Projected Impacts of Demand Decline
This section utilizes IMPLAN Economic Impact Software to model eight different potential declines of refinery
output, based on the demand projections and projected scenarios contained within this report. CEBR used real
data to examine the impact of decline in refineries production output on the Washington economy. From
IMPLAN, we obtained a total output valued at $29,249,428,120.27 for Petroleum and Coal Products
Manufacturing in Washington as of 2022. This value may be greater than expected, as it is less granular than a
six-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code. IMPLAN creates an industry code based
on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) Input-Output accounts, which allows them to aggregate NAICS
codes into IMPLAN’s Industries. This analysis uses IMPLAN Industry code 324 - Petroleum and Coal Products
Manufacturing, which may capture slightly more than the five refineries located in Washington. Similarly, CEBR
utilized IMPLAN's industry employment feature to model potential impacts of changes to the refineries'
employment based on three change of use scenarios.
Wherever possible, each of these cases is grounded in a real world example or the projected petroleum
demand declines at the beginning of Chapter 3.
Table 20: Production and employment decline case descriptions and reasoning
Decline
Case Label IMPLAN Event Type Description of Case Reasoning
Percentage
Case 1.1 Industry Output — Reference case based on 2022 output at refineries
AEO Reference case for petroleum fuel consumption drop by
Case 1.2 Industry Output 6% decline
2050
High oil price based scenario for Washington petroleum fuel
Case 1.3 Industry Output 14% decline
consumption drop by 2050
Scenario to model impact of CCA 95% emissions reduction
Case 1.4 Industry Output 95% decline goal, assuming a large reduction in Washington petroleum
fuel consumption by 2050
Case 2.1 Industry Employment — Reference case based on 2022 employment at refineries
Case 2.2 Industry Employment 70% decline Models conversion to biofuel refinery
Case 2.3 Industry Employment 85% decline Models conversion to biofuel refinery
Case 2.4 Industry Employment 95% decline Models conversion to storage facility
Industry Output Models
The work to inform this study included the creation of three cases of production, which then applied the
“Industry Output Event” feature in IMPLAN to analyze the impact of these cases on the state. With this
analysis, we focused on the impact on employment, labor income or wages and taxes. An important note is
that the employment projections modeled here are not full time equivalents (FTEs), but rather an annual
average that accounts for seasonality. IMPLAN utilizes the same definition for employment as the Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) and BEA. For each model, we also explored the linkage between the refinery sector and
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 70
other sectors in Washington’s economy by ranking the sub-sectors that are impacted significantly by the
reduction in petroleum production in the state. A total current production model is also displayed, to provide a
frame of reference.
In particular, for the case 1.2 we assume a petroleum production decline of 6%. Using IMPLAN, we conduct an
impact analysis of the 6% decline on the state economy through the variables described above. In case 1.3, we
analyze the impact of a 14% decline in refineries’ production on the state’s economy. These cases were
created utilizing projected declines in consumption, discussed in the projected fuel scenarios section.
Within this section, we also provide case 1.4, based on Washington’s Climate Commitment Act (CCA). The
CCA is a part of Washington’s climate policy plan and commits the state to a statewide 95% reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. While not all these reductions must come from the petroleum refining
industry, it is reasonable to expect that demand for conventional petroleum fuels will decline as compliance
with CCA results in more alternative fuels and energy-based infrastructure development. This case assumes
the 95% reduction in emissions results in a 95% reduction in production. This case also assumes that
Washington can export petroleum products to other states, such as potential markets in Canada and Europe.
While most exports currently go to states and provinces with their own statutory net-zero and GHG reduction
requirements, it is reasonable to assume that some conventional refinery products would find a market in
regions without these policies. These potential markets are discussed in more detail within another section of
the report. This analysis does not conclude that to reach the CCA 95% reduction goal, there must be a 95%
reduction in petroleum refinery production. However, these potential changes in demand are likely to result in
changes to products or function at existing refineries, up to and including closure. This is explored through a
more narrative lens in Chapter 2 of this report.
Industry Employment Models
Additionally, we utilized the “Industry Employment” model to analyze the impacts of potential use conversion
scenarios on the Washington economy. These scenarios represent the conversion of existing petroleum
refineries to biofuel refineries or storage facilities. A baseline employment level is modeled to provide a frame
of reference for the current employment within the state. Notably, this number differs slightly from the baseline
in the production model. Within this model, industry output is determined utilizing the industry’s output per
worker relationship to estimate direct effect values. The baseline employment is similar to existing estimates
of total employment at Washington’s refineries and was used for internal consistency.
The first two cases are both based on a refinery transition to biofuel production. Case 2.2, a 70% decline in
employment, is based on the conversion of the HF Sinclair refinery in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Prior to conversion
to biofuels, the Cheyenne refinery employed a reported 280 employees, which decreased to 80 employees
when biofuel production began.185 Case 2.3, an 85% decline in employment, is based on the conversion of the
Marathon refinery in Martinez, California. Prior to conversion, the Martinez refinery employed 740
employees,186 but reportedly employs 110 employees now that it produces biofuels.
Case 2.4 is based on a transition to a storage facility. While this does not necessarily exclude some production
at the facility, the example referenced for this case ceased production. The Phillips 66 refinery transitioned to
an oil terminal in 2020 after damage sustained during Hurricane Ida. The refinery was deemed too expensive
185 McKim, Cooper. "Cheyenne Refinery Announces ~200 Layoffs", Wyoming Public Radio, June 1, 2020.
186 Goldberg, Ted, "Shutdown of Marathon's Martinez Refinery Prompts Calls for 'Just Transition' for Oil Workers', KQED, August 3, 2020;
Angst, Maggie, "After a Martinez refinery closure, laid-off fossil fuel workers got hit with a 'gut punch'", Sacramento Bee via Red Bluff
Daily News, April 27, 2023.
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to repair, prompting the change in use and later sale to Harvest Midstream. Prior to the shift, the Belle Chasse
refinery had 500 employees,187 while it now operates with a reported 30 employees as a storage terminal.
These employment decline estimates do not include contractor employment at refinery sites. Depending on
refinery operations and design, contractors can double the number of workers on site. For turnarounds and
other significant maintenance activities, contractors can triple the number of workers on site. Contractors are
an important part of refinery operations, but the inconsistent nature of their presence creates difficulty in
capturing their impacts. These examples were chosen due to the publicly available data showing their pre-
conversion and post-conversion employment numbers, how recently they were complete and for their location
within the United States. There is a limited pool of references available for reference when discussing
completed conversions of conventional refineries to storage terminals or biofuel refineries. As such, the
employment modeling is grounded in these real-world examples.
Impact Analysis Results Part A: Production Decline
Part A of this report illustrates the projected impact of three cases of petroleum production decline at the
refineries. In Part A, an analysis of the economic impacts of 6%, 14% and 95% declines in petroleum production
is provided. It also includes a "current" production level case, which uses 2022 production level data to help
orient the comparisons provided. For the purposes of this section, any scenario or information described as
"current" should be understood to be based on 2022 output data.
Within this section, supplemental analysis about the potential health impacts of each scenario have been
included for Cases 1.2 to 1.4. To do this, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CO-Benefits Risk
Assessment Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool (COBRA) was used. To quantify impacts, the same
percentage decline in production was used for each assessed pollutant. COBRA is a tool used to explore how
changes in air pollution can affect human health, and provide estimates of the economic value of these health
benefits. 188 Discussion related to specific health impacts and current economic valuation is include in Chapter
5. While the tables only present results for Washington as a whole, Pierce County, Skagit County, and Whatcom
County, air pollution is not restricted to a single jurisdiction and does not observe county or state lines. Each of
the scenarios focused on pollutant reductions in Washington as a result of "Petroleum Refineries & Related
Industries". The positive values in the table represent the annual reductions in the number of cases and
avoided associated costs. COBRA modeling presents "Low" and "High" values based on differences in
methods to calculate some health impacts.189
Overview of Effects
Table 21 summarizes the estimated direct effects of each production decline scenario as well as the baseline
scenario, or current production level scenario. The table shows the projected impacts to five variables:
employment, labor income, value added, output and tax revenue.
The “Current Production Levels” column shows the direct economic impacts refineries currently have on
Washington. As shown, current production activity directly supports about 2,495 jobs, about $734.04 million in
labor income, about $7.37 billion in value added, $29.25 million in output and $540.94 million in tax revenue.
This value for direct jobs is higher than IMPLAN's estimated employment and other estimates for direct
187 William Taylor Potter, “Nearly 500 employees to be laid off from Belle Chasse Phillips 66 refinery”, November 29, 2021
188 Environmental Protection Agency, "What is COBRA?", April 23, 2024. What is COBRA? | US EPA
189 Read more about COBRA and it's methodology here: COBRA Questions and Answers | US EPA
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 72
employment. This is a function of the output employment relationship within IMPLAN's model, which has a set
ratio of output to employee.
Each of the “Case” columns shows the direct impact of the respective decline scenario. As the table
demonstrates, the larger the production decline, the greater the estimated impact to each of the variables.
Case 1.2 is estimated to have the mildest impact on the variables, while Case 1.4 is estimated to have to most
significant impact. Case 1.4, a 95% decline in production, is intended to capture the impacts of the Climate
Commitment Act on refinery production.
Table 21: Summary of Direct Effects by Industry Output IMPLAN Model, Cases 1.1 to
1.4.
Case 1.2: 6% Case 1.3: 14%
Current Production Case 1.4: 95% Production
Direct Effect Production Production
Levels, Case 1.1 Decline
Decline Decline
Employment 2494.55 -149.67 -349.24 -2,220.15
Labor Income $734,039,323 -$44,042,359 -$102,765,505 -$653,294,997
Value Added $7,365,066,054 -$441,903,963 -$1,031,109,248 -$6,554,908,787
Output $29,249,428,120 -$1,754,965,687 -$4,094,919,937 -$26,031,991,027
Total Impact to Tax Revenue $540,940,328 -$32,456,420 -$75,731,646 -$481,436,892
Case 1.1 represents estimated economic impacts based on IMPLAN's current industry output value. This is
intended to provide a reference case to compare against the declines in Cases 1.2 through 1.4.
Table 22 shows the employment and labor income multipliers derived from the estimated direct, indirect and
induced employment and labor income effects.
The Type 1 multiplier represents the number of jobs (or, in the case of labor income, dollars of labor income)
indirectly created by each direct job (or direct dollar of labor income). This type of multiplier does not consider
induced jobs or income. The Type 1 Employment Multiplier of 8.49 suggests that each refinery job is estimated
to indirectly create 8.49 additional jobs. The Labor Income multiplier of 3.52 suggests that each dollar of labor
income earned directly at refineries is estimated to indirectly create 3.52 additional dollars of labor income
elsewhere in the economy.
The SAM Multiplier considers induced jobs as well as directly and indirectly created jobs. The SAM
Employment Multiplier of 12.28 suggests that each direct refinery job is estimated to create 12.28 total jobs
elsewhere in the economy, either indirectly or through induction. The SAM Labor Income Multiplier of 4.44
suggests that each dollar of labor income earned at the refineries is estimated to create a total of 4.44
additional dollars of labor income, either indirectly or through induction.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 73
Table 22: Employment and Labor Income Multipliers
Multiplier Type Employment Labor Income
Type 1 Multiplier 8.49 3.52
SAM Multiplier 12.28 4.44
Case 1.1: Current Production Levels
Table shows the economic conditions supported by current petroleum refinery production levels. Current
production is estimated to directly support 2,494 jobs, $734.04 million in labor income (inclusive of benefits),
$7.37 billion in value added and $29.25 billion in output. These direct impacts of the refineries have cascading
effects, indirectly creating and inducing further employment, income, value added and output in other parts of
the economy. The total number of jobs supported by current production is estimated to be 30,640, and the
total amount of labor income supported is $3.26 billion. The table further breaks down the effects of current
production.
Table 23: Summary Impacts of Case 1.1, Current Production Levels
Impact Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct 2,494.55 $734,039,323 $7,365,066,054 $29,249,428,120
Indirect 18,694.75 $1,852,519,150 $3,521,958,680 $7,339,893,114
Induced 9,451.58 $671,520,600 $1,277,735,577 $2,051,658,328
Total 30,640.88 $3,258,079,073 $12,164,760,311 $38,640,979,562
Table 24 lists the five industries estimated to be most impacted by current production in order of jobs
supported, including indirect and induced effects. Looking at employment, the wholesale trade sector is ranked
as the most supported industry, with an estimated 2,853 jobs indirectly supported by the refineries. Across all
industries, an estimated 30,641 jobs are supported.
Table 24: Case 1.1, Top Five Industries Supported at Current Production Levels,
Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment.
Direct (Impact Indirect (Impact Induced (Impact Total (Impact
Industry
Employment) Employment) Employment) Employment)
Wholesale Trade 0 2,608.19 244.85 2,853.04
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 0 2,219.21 409.31 2,628.52
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 2494.55 111.45 3 2,609.01
Administrative and Support Services 0 1,794.57 389.43 2,184
Construction 0 2,068.96 107.75 2,176.71
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 74
Direct (Impact Indirect (Impact Induced (Impact Total (Impact
Industry
Employment) Employment) Employment) Employment)
All 88 Industries 2494.55 18,694.74 9,451.56 30,640.88
Table 25: shows the estimated direct, indirect, induced and total tax impacts of current refinery production.
The effects are further organized by the level of government for each tax. IMPLAN's modeling includes values
for direct, indirect and induced effects as a total within this table. While IMPLAN does its best to capture all
potential taxes, this may not be inclusive of all applicable taxes based on variation at the county and local
level. IMPLAN estimates for Case 1.1 result in an estimated $540.94 million in tax revenue directly and $1.73
billion in total.
Table 25: Case 1.1, Estimated Tax Revenue at Current Production Levels.
Sub County Sub County
Impact County State Federal Total
General Special Districts
Direct $13,872,487 $21,972,380 $11,205,939 $89,538,016 $404,351,507 $540,940,328
Indirect $38,325,202 $60,701,374 $30,957,913 $246,861,064 $494,979,452 $871,825,006
Induced $13,817,501 $21,884,627 $11,161,315 $89,016,764 $180,114,105 $315,994,312
Total $66,015,191 $104,558,381 $53,325,167 $425,415,844 $1,079,445,064 $1,728,759,646
Case 1.2: A 6% Decline in Production
Table 26: summarizes the direct, indirect and induced impacts of the first production decline scenario in
which the refineries reduce production by 6%. The estimated impacts of this scenario are direct declines in
employment, labor income and output. These direct negative impacts are estimated to create additional
indirect and induced impacts.
Considering direct, indirect and induced impacts, Case 1.2 is estimated to cause a 6% decline in total
employment, labor income, value added and output.
Table 26: Case 1.2, Summary Impacts of a 6% decline in Production.
Impact Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct -149.67 -$44,042,359 -$441,903,963 -$1,754,965,687
Indirect -1121.69 -$111,151,149 -$211,317,521 -$440,393,587
Induced -567.09 -$40,291,236 -$76,664,135 -$123,099,500
Total -1838.45 -$195,484,744 -$729,885,619 -$2,318,458,773
Table 27: 7 contains estimated job losses for Case 1.2. Consistent with Case 1.1, wholesale trade has the
largest estimate impact with a loss of 171 jobs. The professional, scientific and technical services industry
was estimated to lose 157 jobs, and petroleum and coal products manufacturing was estimated to lose 156
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 75
jobs. An estimated 130 jobs are lost in the construction industry, following the loss of 131 jobs in
administrative and support services. Across all industries, 1,838 jobs were estimated to be lost. Of these 1,838
jobs, 1,689 are from indirect or induced effects.
Table 27: Case 1.2, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment
under 6% decline in Production.
Direct (Impact Indirect (Impact Induced (Impact Total (Impact
Industry
Employment) Employment) Employment) Employment)
Wholesale Trade 0 -156.49 -14.69 -171.18
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 0 -133.15 -24.56 -157.71
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing -149.67 -6.69 -0.18 -156.54
Administrative and Support Services 0 -107.67 -23.37 -131.04
Construction 0 -124.14 -6.47 -130.6
All 88 Industries -149.67 -1,121.65 -567.06 -1,838.45
Table 28: 7 shows the estimated direct, indirect, induced and total tax impacts of a 6% decline in refinery
production. The effects are further organized by the level of government for each tax. IMPLAN's modeling
includes values for direct, indirect and induced effects as a total within this table. While IMPLAN is relatively
comprehensive in capturing and reflecting changes to all potential taxes, this may not be inclusive of all
applicable taxes based on variation at the county and local level. IMPLAN estimates for Case 1.2 a direct
decline of $32.46 million in tax revenue, while total tax revenue across all levels of government was estimated
to decline by $103.73 million.
Table 28: Case 1.2, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from a 6% decline in Production.
Sub County Sub County
Impact County State Federal Total
General Special Districts
Direct -$832,349 -$1,318,342 -$672,356 -$5,372,280 -$24,261,090 -$32,456,419
Indirect -$2,299,512 -$3,642,082 -$1,857,474 -$14,811,663 -$29,698,767 -$52,309,500
Induced -$829,050 -$1,313,077 -$669,678 -$5,341,005 -$10,806,846 -$18,959,658
Total -$3,960,911 -$6,273,502 -$3,199,509 -$25,524,950 -$64,766,703 -$103,725,578
Table 29 contains the estimated monetary value of avoided healthcare costs over a year from reduced
emissions in 2023. This model estimates the changes of PM2.5 and ozone (O3) based on changes to emitted
PM2.5, SO2, NOx, and VOCs. COBRA then presents a range of values for health incomes based on the modeled
changes in air quality. Air pollutants do not observe state or county lines, so the model provides values for the
contiguous United States. This report focuses on Washington as a whole and counties that house petroleum
refineries. The low estimates for the monetary value of a 6% decrease in key pollutants are $1 million, with a
high estimate of $1.6 million in 2023 dollars. This estimate is the result of a combination of willingness-to-pay
values for reducing negative health outcomes or cost-of-illness estimates, using the value of a statistical life.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 76
For more information about this methodology, please refer to the EPA COBRA page.190 Estimates of county
impacts range from $90 thousand to $160 thousand for low values, and $150 thousand to $280 thousand for
high values.
Table 29: COBRA estimates of health impacts and economic value of avoided costs of
a 6% decrease in pollutants from petroleum refineries.
Impact Pierce County Skagit County Whatcom County Washington
Monetary value* of total
$92,000 $90,000 $160,000 $1,000,000
health effects, Low
Monetary value* of total
$150,000 $150,000 $280,000 $1,600,000
health effects, High
Changes in Incidence**,
Minor Restricted Activity 2.4 1.9 5.9 31
Days (PM2.5)
Changes in Incidence**,
Asthma Onset and 5.534 2.918 7.244 55.34
Symptoms
*Monetary value is calculated in 2023 dollars annually. This value is based on the healthcare costs of the health endpoint and
willingness to pay to avoid the health endpoint.
**Incidence refers to the number of new cases of a health endpoint over a specified period of time, based on statistical risk
reductions aggregated over the population.
The complete table of results for Washington from this COBRA analysis can be found in Appendix B.
Case 1.3: A 14% Decline in Production
Table 30 summarizes the direct, indirect and induced impacts of Case 1.3 in which the refineries reduce
production by 14%. Similar to Case 1.2, the estimated impacts of Case 1.3 are direct declines in employment,
labor income, value added and output. The direct negative impacts are estimated to create additional indirect
and induced impacts.
Considering direct, indirect and induced impacts, Case 1.3 is estimated to cause a 14% decline in total
employment, labor income, value added and output.
Table 30: Case 1.3, Summary Impacts of a 14% decline in production.
Impact Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct -349.24 -$102,765,505 -$1,031,109,248 -$4,094,919,937
Indirect -2,617.27 -$259,352,681 -$493,074,215 -$1,027,585,036
Induced -1,323.22 -$94,012,884 -$178,882,981 -$287,232,166
Total -4,289.72 -$456,131,070 -$1,703,066,444 -$5,409,737,139
190 Read more about COBRA and it's methodology here: COBRA Questions and Answers | US EPA
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 77
Case 1.3 remains consistent with Case 1.1 and Case 1.2. Looking at job loss, wholesale trade was estimated
to see the largest impact, losing an estimated 399 jobs. Professional, scientific and technical services was
estimated to lose 368 jobs, and petroleum and coal products manufacturing was estimated to lose 365 jobs.
Across all industries, 4,289 jobs were estimated to be lost.
Table 31: Case 1.3, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment
for a 14% decline in production
Direct (Impact Indirect (Impact Induced (Impact Total (Impact
Industry
Employment) Employment) Employment) Employment)
Wholesale Trade 0 -365.15 -34.28 -399.43
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 0 -310.69 -57.3 -367.99
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing -349.24 -15.6 -0.42 -365.26
Administrative and Support Services 0 -251.24 -54.52 -305.76
Construction 0 -289.65 -15.09 -304.74
All 88 Industries -349.24 -2,617.25 -1,323.23 -4,289.72
Table 322 shows the estimated direct, indirect, induced and total tax impacts of Case 1.3. The 14% production
decline was estimated to directly cause a $75.73 million decline in tax revenue, while total tax revenue (the
sum of direct, indirect and induced tax revenues) was estimated to decline by $242.03 million.
Table 32: Case 1.3, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from a 14% decline in production.
Sub County Sub County
Impact County State Federal Total
General Special Districts
Direct -$1,942,148 -$3,076,133 -$1,568,831 -$12,535,322 -$56,609,211 -$75,731,646
Indirect -$5,365,528 -$8,498,192 -$4,334,108 -$34,560,549 -$69,297,123 -$122,055,501
Induced -$1,934,450 -$3,063,848 -$1,562,584 -$12,462,347 -$25,215,975 -$44,239,204
Total -$9,242,127 -$14,638,173 -$7,465,523 -$59,558,218 -$151,122,309 -$242,026,350
Table 33contains the estimated monetary value of avoided healthcare costs over a year from reduced
emissions in 2023. This model estimates the changes of PM2.5 and ozone (O3) based on changes to emitted
PM2.5, SO2, NOx, and VOCs. COBRA then presents a range of values for health incomes based on the modeled
changes in air quality. Air pollutants do not observe state or county lines, so the model provides values for the
contiguous United States. This report focuses on Washington as a whole and counties that house petroleum
refineries. The low estimates for the monetary value of a 14% decrease in key pollutants are $2.4 million, with
a high estimate of $3.8 million in 2023 dollars. Estimates of county impacts range from $210 thousand to
$380 thousand for low values, and $340 thousand to $640 thousand for high values.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 78
Table 33: Case 1.3, COBRA estimates of health impacts and economic value of
avoided costs of a 14% decrease in pollutants from petroleum refineries.
Impact Pierce County Skagit County Whatcom County Washington
Monetary value* of total
$220,000 $210,000 $380,000 $2,400,000
health effects, Low
Monetary value* of total
$340,000 $340,000 $640,000 $3,800,000
health effects, High
Changes in Incidence**,
Minor Restricted Activity 5.7 4.4 14 73
Days (PM2.5)
Changes in Incidence**,
Asthma Onset and 13.08 6.842 17.1 130.8
Symptoms
*Monetary value is calculated in 2023 dollars annually. This value is based on the healthcare costs of the health endpoint and willingness to pay to avoid
the health endpoint.
**Incidence refers to the number of new cases of a health endpoint over a specified period of time, based on statistical risk reductions aggregated over
the population.
The complete table of results for Washington from this COBRA analysis can be found in Appendix B.
Case 1.4: A 95% Decline in Production
Table 34 summarizes the direct, indirect, and induced impacts of Case 1.4 in which the refineries reduce
production by 95 percent. The estimated impacts of Case 1.4 are direct declines in employment, labor income,
value added, and output. The direct negative impacts are estimated to create additional indirect and induced
impacts. This case is intended to help capture potential impacts from the target 95% reduction in GHG
emissions driven by the CCA. This case represents some of the most extreme potential impacts, and does not
include information on how this reduction might be achieved or its feasibility.
Table 34: Case 1.4, Summary Impacts of a 95% decline in production
Impact Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct -2220.15 -$653,294,997.52 -$6,554,908,787.84 -$26,031,991,027.04
Indirect -16638.33 -$1,648,742,043.50 -$3,134,543,225.33 -$6,532,504,871.24
Induced -8411.91 -$597,653,334.38 -$1,137,184,663.59 -$1,825,975,911.93
Total -27270.39 -$2,899,690,375.41 -$10,826,636,676.76 -$34,390,471,810.21
Case 1.4 remains consistent with previous cases, albeit with much larger impacts. Looking at job loss,
wholesale trade was estimated to see the largest impact, losing an estimated 2,539 jobs. Professional,
scientific, and technical services was estimated to lose 2,339 jobs, and petroleum and coal products
manufacturing was estimated to lose 2,322 jobs. Across all industries, 27,270 jobs were estimated to be lost.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 79
Table 35: Case 1.4, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment
for a 95% decline in production
Direct (Impact Indirect (Impact Induced (Impact Total (Impact
Industry
Employment) Employment) Employment) Employment)
Wholesale Trade 0 -2321.29 -217.92 -2539.21
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 0 -1975.1 -364.28 -2339.38
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing -2220.15 -99.19 -2.67 -2322.02
Construction 0 -1841.37 -95.9 -1937.27
Truck Transportation 0 -1862.33 -67.97 -1930.31
All 88 Industries -2220.15 -16638.32 -8411.96 -27270.39
Table 36 shows the estimated direct, indirect, induced, and total tax impacts of Case 1.4. The 95% production
decline was estimated to directly cause a $481.44 million decline in tax revenue, while total tax revenue (the
sum of direct, indirect, and induced tax revenues) was estimated to decline by $1.54 billion.
Table 36: Case 1.4, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from a 95% decline in production.
Sub County Sub County
Impact County State Federal Total
General Special Districts
Direct -$12,346,513.34 -$19,555,417.95 -$9,973,285.39 -$79,688,834.36 -$359,872,840.96 -$481,436,892.00
Indirect -$34,109,430.19 -$54,024,222.97 -$27,552,542.82 -$219,706,346.74 -$440,531,712.54 -$775,924,255.26
Induced -$12,297,576.17 -$19,477,318.11 -$9,933,570.05 -$79,224,920.25 -$160,301,553.10 -$281,234,937.69
Total -$58,753,519.70 -$93,056,959.03 -$47,459,398.26 -$378,620,101.35 -$960,706,106.60 -$1,538,596,084.94
Table 37 contains the estimated monetary value of avoided healthcare costs over a year from reduced
emissions in 2023. This model estimates the changes of PM2.5 and ozone (O3) based on changes to emitted
PM2.5, SO2, NOx, and VOCs. COBRA then presents a range of values for health incomes based on the modeled
changes in air quality. Air pollutants do not observe state or county lines, so the model provides values for the
contiguous United States. This report focuses on Washington as a whole and counties that house petroleum
refineries. The low estimates for the monetary value of a 95% decrease in key pollutants are $16 million, with a
high estimate of $26 million in 2023 dollars. For each county, low estimates range between $1.4 million and
$2.6 million while $2.3 million and $4.4 million.
Table 37: Case 1.4, COBRA estimates of health impacts and economic value of
avoided costs of a 95% decrease in pollutants from petroleum refineries.
Impact Pierce County Skagit County Whatcom County Washington
Monetary value* of total
$1,500,000 $1,400,000 $2,600,000 $16,000,000
health effects, Low
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Impact Pierce County Skagit County Whatcom County Washington
Monetary value* of total
$2,300,000 $2,300,000 $4,400,000 $26,000,000
health effects, High
Changes in Incidence**,
Minor Restricted Activity 38 30 93 500
Days (PM2.5)
Changes in Incidence**,
Asthma Onset and 87.54 46.28 110.69 875.4
Symptoms
*Monetary value is calculated in 2023 dollars annually. This value is based on the healthcare costs of the health endpoint and
willingness to pay to avoid the health endpoint.
**Incidence refers to the number of new cases of a health endpoint over a specified period of time, based on statistical risk
reductions aggregated over the population.
The complete table of results for Washington from this COBRA analysis can be found in Appendix B.
Impact Analysis Results Part B: Employment Decline
Part B of this report illustrates the projected impact of three cases of employment decline at the refineries. In
Part B, an analysis of the economic impacts of a 70%, 85% and 95% decline in refinery employment. The 70%
and 85% employment decline scenarios assume employment loss due to conventional refineries converting to
biofuel refineries, while the 95% employment decline scenario assumes employment loss due to conversion to
storage terminal facilities. These decline estimates are based on real world examples of before and after
conversion employment at other U.S. refineries. See the methodology section for more information on how
these scenarios were designed. It also includes a "current" employment level case, which uses 2022 data to
help orient the comparisons provided. For the purposes of this section, any scenario or information described
as "current" should be understood to be based on 2022 employment data.
Overview of Effects
Table 38 summarizes the estimated direct effects of each employment decline scenario as well as the
baseline scenario, or current employment level scenario. The table shows the projected impacts to five
variables: employment, labor income, value added, output and tax revenue.
The “Current Employment Levels” column shows the direct economic impacts refineries currently have on
Washington. As shown, current production activity directly supports about 2,155 jobs, about $634.28 million in
labor income, about $6.36 billion in value added, $25.27 million in output and $467.42 million in tax revenue. It
is important to note that these results are slightly lower than the previous baseline case. IMPLAN utilizes a
linear output per employee value. In this case, the discrepancy is a result of the reported employees in
IMPLAN's system (which is relatively closely aligned with employment estimates pf 2,200 employees) not
accounting for the full output value. CEBR chose to use the employment number reported within IMPLAN for
internal consistency.
Each of the “Case” columns shows the direct impact of the respective decline scenario. As the table
demonstrates, the larger the production decline, the greater the estimated impact to each of the variables.
Case 2.2 is estimated to have the smallest impact on the variables, while Case 2.4 is estimated to have to
most significant impact. However, all of these changes are quite extreme. These scenarios were developed to
help better relay the impacts of Scenarios 4-8, in section three of this chapter.
This analysis utilizes total employment across all five refineries, while in reality it is unlikely that all five
refineries would make these transitions at the same time.
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Table 38: Summary of Direct Effects by Industry Employment IMPLAN Model, Cases
2.1 to 2.4.
Current Employment Case 2.2: 70% Case 2.3: 85% Case 2.4: 95%
Direct Effect
Levels, Case 2.1 Employment Decline Employment Decline Employment Decline
Employment 2,155.53 -1,508.87 -1,832.20 -2,047.75
Labor Income $634,279,766 -$443,995,836 -$539,137,801 -$602,565,778
Value Added $6,364,117,323 -$4,454,882,126 -$5,409,499,725 -$6,045,911,457
Output $25,274,286,861 -$17,692,000,803 -$21,483,143,832 -$24,010,572,518
Total Impact to Tax
Revenue $467,423,875 -$327,196,712 -$397,310,294 -$444,052,681
Case 2.1: Current Employment Levels
Table 39 shows the economic conditions supported by current petroleum refinery employment levels. Current
employment is estimated to directly support 2,155 jobs, $634.28 million in labor income (inclusive of benefits),
$6.36 billion in value added and $25.27 billion in output. These direct impacts of the refineries have cascading
effects, indirectly creating and inducing further employment, income, value added and output in other parts of
the economy. The total number of jobs supported by current production is estimated to be 26,476 and the total
amount of labor income supported is $2.82 billion. The table further breaks down the effects of current
employment.
Table 39: Summary Impacts of Case 2.1, Current Employment Levels.
Impact Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct 2,155.53 $634,279,766 $6,364,117,323 $25,274,286,861
Indirect 16,154.04 $1,600,752,679 $3,043,307,159 $6,342,365,510
Induced 8,167.06 $580,257,645 $1,104,085,023 $1,772,827,862
Total 26,476.64 $2,815,290,090 $10,511,509,505 $33,389,480,233
Table 40 lists the five industries estimated to be most impacted by current production in order of jobs
supported, including indirect and induced effects. Looking at employment, the wholesale trade sector is ranked
as the most supported industry, with an estimated 2,254 jobs indirectly supported by the refineries.
Professional, scientific and technical services support an estimated 2,465 jobs, and petroleum and coal
products manufacturing support an estimated 2,254 jobs. Across all industries, an estimated 26,477 jobs are
supported.
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Table 40: Case 2.1, Top Five Industries Supported at Current Employment Levels,
Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment.
Direct (Impact Indirect (Impact Induced (Impact Total (Impact
Industry
Employment) Employment) Employment) Employment)
Wholesale Trade 2,155.53 96.30 2.59 2,254.43
Professional, Scientific and
0.00 2,253.72 211.58 2,465.30
Technical Services
Petroleum and Coal Products
0.00 1,917.61 353.68 2,271.29
Manufacturing
Administrative and Support
0.00 1,808.13 65.99 1,874.12
Services
Construction 0.00 1,787.78 93.11 1,880.88
All 88 Industries 2155.53 16153.99 8167.08 26,476.64
Table 41 shows the estimated direct, indirect, induced and total tax impacts of current refinery production. The
effects are further organized by the level of government for each tax. IMPLAN's modeling includes values for
direct, indirect and induced effects as a total within this table. While IMPLAN is relatively comprehensive in
including all potential taxes, this may not be inclusive of all applicable taxes based on variation at the county
and local level. IMPLAN estimates for Case 2.1 result in an estimated $467.42 million in tax revenue directly
and $1.49 billion in total.
Table 41: Case 2.1, Estimated Tax Revenue at Current Employment Levels.
Sub County Sub County
Impact County State Federal Total
General Special Districts
Direct $11,987,148 $18,986,225 $9,682,996 $77,369,359 $349,398,147 $467,423,875
Indirect $33,116,619 $52,451,759 $26,750,580 $213,311,430 $427,709,308 $753,339,696
Induced $11,939,635 $18,910,399 $9,644,437 $76,918,948 $155,635,711 $273,049,130
Total $57,043,401 $90,348,382 $46,078,104 $367,599,737 $932,743,166 $1,493,812,700
Case 2.2: A 70% Decline in Employment
Table 42 summarizes the direct, indirect and induced impacts of the first employment decline scenario in
which the refineries reduce employment by 70% through conversion to a biofuel refinery. The estimated
impacts of this scenario are direct declines in employment, labor income and output. These direct negative
impacts are estimated to create additional indirect and induced impacts.
Considering direct, indirect and induced impacts, Case 2.2 is estimated to cause a 70% decline in total labor
income, total value added and total output in addition to the 70% decline in total employment.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 83
Table 42: Case 2.2, Summary Impacts of a 70% decline in Employment.
Impact Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct -1,508.87 -$443,995,836 -$4,454,882,126 -$17,692,000,803
Indirect -11,307.83 -$1,120,526,875 -$2,130,315,011 -$4,439,655,857
Induced -5,716.95 -$406,180,352 -$772,859,516 -$1,240,979,504
Total -18,533.65 -$1,970,703,063 -$7,358,056,653 -$23,372,636,163
Table 43 contains estimated job losses for Case 2.2. Consistent with Case 2.1, wholesale trade has the largest
estimate impact with a loss of 1,725 jobs. The professional, scientific and technical services industry was
estimated to lose 1,589 jobs, and petroleum and coal products manufacturing was estimated to lose 1,578
jobs. An estimated 1,311 jobs are lost in the construction industry, just after the loss of 1,316 jobs in
administrative and support services. Across all industries, 18,533 jobs were estimated to be lost. Of these
18,533 jobs lost, 17,025 are from indirect or induced effects.
Table 43: Case 2.2, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment
under 70% decline in Employment.
Direct (Impact Indirect (Impact Induced (Impact Total (Impact
Industry
Employment) Employment) Employment) Employment)
Wholesale Trade 0 -1577.6 -148.1 -1725.71
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 0 -1342.32 -247.58 -1589.9
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing -1508.87 -67.41 -1.82 -1578.1
Administrative and Support Services 0 -1251.44 -65.18 -1316.62
Construction 0 -1265.69 -46.2 -1311.89
All 88 Industries -1508.87 -11307.8 -5716.95 -18533.65
Table shows the estimated direct, indirect, induced and total loss of tax revenue based on a 70% decline in
employment. The effects are further organized by the level of government for each tax. IMPLAN's modeling
includes values for direct, indirect and induced effects as a total within this table. While IMPLAN is relatively
comprehensive in including all potential taxes, this may not be inclusive of all applicable taxes based on
variation at the county and local level. IMPLAN estimates for Case 2.2 a direct decline of $327.2 million in tax
revenue, while total tax revenue across all levels of government was estimated to decline by $1.05 billion.
Table 44: Case 1.2, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from a 70% Decline in Employment.
Sub County Sub County
Impact County State Federal Total
General Special Districts
Direct -$8,391,003 -$13,290,358 -$6,778,098 -$54,158,551 -$244,578,703 -$327,196,712
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Sub County Sub County
Impact County State Federal Total
General Special Districts
Indirect -$23,181,633 -$36,716,231 -$18,725,406 -$149,318,001 -$299,396,516 -$527,337,787
Induced -$8,357,744 -$13,237,279 -$6,751,106 -$53,843,264 -$108,944,998 -$191,134,391
Total -$39,930,381 -$63,243,868 -$32,254,610 -$257,319,816 -$652,920,216 -$1,045,668,890
Case 2.3: An 85% Decline in Employment,
Table summarizes the direct, indirect and induced impacts of the first employment decline scenario in which
the refineries reduce employment by 85% through conversion to a biofuel refinery. The estimated impacts of
this scenario are direct declines in employment, labor income and output. These direct negative impacts are
estimated to create additional indirect and induced impacts.
Considering direct, indirect and induced impacts, Case 2.3 is estimated to cause an 85% decline in total labor
income, total value added and total output in addition to the 85% decline in total employment.
Table 45: Case 2.3, Summary Impacts of an 85% decline in Employment.
Impact Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct -1,832.20 -$539,137,801 -$5,409,499,725 -$21,483,143,832
Indirect -13,730.94 -$1,360,639,777 -$2,586,811,085 -$5,391,010,683
Induced -6,942.00 -$493,218,996 -$938,472,269 -$1,506,903,683
Total -22,505.14 -$2,392,996,576 -$8,934,783,079 -$28,381,058,198
Case 2.3 remains consistent with Case 2.1 and Case 2.2. Looking at job loss, wholesale trade was estimated
to see the largest impact, losing an estimated 2,095 jobs. Professional, scientific and technical services was
estimated to lose 1,930 jobs, and petroleum and coal products manufacturing was estimated to lose 1,916
jobs. Across all industries, 22,505 jobs were estimated to be lost.
Table 46: Case 2.3, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment
for an 85% decline in Employment.
Direct (Impact Indirect (Impact Induced (Impact Total (Impact
Industry
Employment) Employment) Employment) Employment)
Wholesale Trade 0 -1915.66 -179.84 -2,095.5
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 0 -1629.97 -300.63 -1,930.59
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing -1832.2 -81.86 -2.2 -1,916.26
Administrative and Support Services 0 -1519.61 -79.14 -1,598.75
Construction 0 -1536.91 -56.1 -1,593
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Direct (Impact Indirect (Impact Induced (Impact Total (Impact
Industry
Employment) Employment) Employment) Employment)
All 88 Industries -1832.2 -13730.92 -6942.01 -22,505.14
Table 47 shows the estimated direct, indirect, induced and total tax impacts of Case 2.3. The 85% production
decline was estimated to directly cause a $397.31 million decline in tax revenue, while total tax revenue (the
sum of direct, indirect and induced tax revenues) was estimated to decline by $1.27 billion.
Table 47: Case 2.3, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from an 85% decline in Employment.
Sub County Sub County
Impact County State Federal Total
General Special Districts
Direct -$10,189,076 -$16,138,291 -$8,230,547 -$65,763,955 -$296,988,425 -$397,310,294
Indirect -$28,149,126 -$44,583,995 -$22,737,993 -$181,314,716 -$363,552,912 -$640,338,742
Induced -$10,148,690 -$16,073,839 -$8,197,772 -$65,381,106 -$132,290,355 -$232,091,760
Total -$48,486,891 -$76,796,125 -$39,166,312 -$312,459,776 -$792,831,691 -$1,269,740,795
Case 2.4: A 95% Decline in Employment
Table 48 summarizes the direct, indirect and induced impacts of the first employment decline scenario in
which the refineries reduce employment by 95% through conversion to a storage facility. This also roughly
approximates the impacts of closure and redevelopment, although these impacts may be closer to 100%
reduction, it was assumed that this case provided a close approximation to a closure scenario. The baseline
case may also be referenced to help understand potential losses from closure. The estimated impacts of this
scenario are direct declines in employment, labor income and output. These direct negative impacts are
estimated to create additional indirect and induced impacts.
Considering direct, indirect and induced impacts, Case 2.4 is estimated to cause a 95% decline in total labor
income, total value added and total output in addition to the 95% decline in total employment.
Table 48: Case 2.4, Summary Impacts of a 95% decline in Employment.
Impact Employment Labor Income Value Added Output
Direct -2,047.75 -$602,565,778 -$6,045,911,457 -$24,010,572,518
Indirect -15,346.34 -$1,520,715,045 -$2,891,141,801 -$6,025,247,234
Induced -7,758.71 -$551,244,763 -$1,048,880,771 -$1,684,186,469
Total -25,152.80 -$2,674,525,585 -$9,985,934,030 -$31,720,006,221
Case 2.4 remains consistent with previous cases. Looking at job loss, wholesale trade was estimated to see
the largest impact, losing an estimated 2,342 jobs. Professional, scientific and technical services was
estimated to lose 2,157 jobs, and petroleum and coal products manufacturing was estimated to lose 2,141
jobs. Across all industries, 25,152 jobs were estimated to be lost.
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Table 49: Case 2.4, Top Five Industries Ranked by Estimated Impact to Employment
for a 95% decline in Employment.
Direct (Impact Indirect (Impact Induced (Impact Total (Impact
Industry
Employment) Employment) Employment) Employment)
Wholesale Trade 0 -2,141.03 -201 -2,342.03
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 0 -1,821.73 -336 -2,157.72
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing -2,047.75 -91.49 -2.46 -2,141.71
Administrative and Support Services 0 -1,698.39 -88.45 -1,786.84
Construction 0 -1,717.72 -62.7 -1,780.42
All 88 Industries -2,047.75 -15,346.37 -7,758.72 -25,152.8
Table 50 shows the estimated direct, indirect, induced and total tax impacts of Case 2.4. The 95% production
decline was estimated to directly cause a $444.05 million decline in tax revenue, while total tax revenue (the
sum of direct, indirect and induced tax revenues) was estimated to decline by $1.4 trillion.
Table 50: Case 2.4, Estimated Tax Revenue Loss from a 95% decline in Employment.
Sub County Sub County
Impact County State Federal Total
General Special Districts
Direct -$11,387,790.26 -$18,036,913.90 -$9,198,846.60 -$73,500,891.05 -$331,928,239.23 -$444,052,681.04
Indirect -$31,460,787.86 -$49,829,170.65 -$25,413,051.45 -$202,645,858.54 -$406,323,842.82 -$715,672,711.32
Induced -$11,342,653.13 -$17,964,878.62 -$9,162,215.21 -$73,073,000.48 -$147,853,925.64 -$259,396,673.08
Total -$54,191,231.24 -$85,830,963.18 -$43,774,113.26 -$349,219,750.07 -$886,106,007.69 -$1,419,122,065.43
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Potential Tax Impacts of Changes to Washington's Refineries
This section provides an evaluation of potential tax revenue losses that may result from changes to
Washington's oil refining industry. A particular emphasis is placed on tax revenues that support environmental
programs in the state and transportation gas tax revenues. These programs support oil spill prevention and
preparedness resources, including the remediation of spill sites. These programs help address environmental
harms from the movement and refining of oil. Refiners paid an estimated $292.4 million in state and local
taxes in 2023, although 2023 values were not available for the motor vehicle fuel tax, retail sales and use tax,
oil spill tax, and unemployment compensation tax. To help supplement the available data, values from the
Washington Research Council’s (WRC) 2021 study 191 were used where 2023 values were not available. The
total amount of state and local taxes paid has been increasing in recent years. To contrast, the amount paid in
2019 was $279.1 million.191 As in previous years, the largest share of taxes paid was the Hazardous
Substance Tax (HST) at over 46.3% ($141.3 million) of the total paid by refiners. The refineries currently
receive no-cost emission allowances as EITEs under the Climate Commitment Act, meaning that their
contribution to revenue is likely to be very small, but may begin to increase in 2027 as their no cost allowances
are reduced. Currently, the CCA has generated approximately $2 billion in revenue, which is being invested in
critical climate and air quality projects in Washington.192 193 194
Table 51: Taxes Due from Refineries by tax type
Tax Type Total Due (in Millions $) Source Year Tax Revenue Uses
General Fund, Cities, Counties, Other
Retail sales and use tax $2.0 2019 195
General Fund, Cities/Towns, Counties,
Business and occupation tax $96.6 2023
Other192
Local Schools, State Levy, Cities,
Property tax $21.7 2019
Counties, Fire Authorities 192
Unemployment Programs, UI Trust
Unemployment compensation tax $1.4 2019
Fund 196
Hazardous substance tax total (By volume &
$141.4 2023 MTCA, Other 197
value)
Oil spill tax $12.5 2019 Spill Prevention and cleanup, Other198
191 Washington Research Council Economic Profile, “The Economic Contribution of Washington State’s Petroleum Refining Industry in
2019”, June 2021 https://researchcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021-Refinery-Report-Final.pdf
192 Washington Department of Ecology, "Climate Commitment Act", Climate Commitment Act - Washington State Department of
Ecology
193 Washington State Department of Ecology, “Allowance Allocation to Emissions-Intensive, Trade-Exposed Industries for the First
Compliance Period: 2024 vintage allocation”, October 2023. Allowance Allocation to Emissions-Intensive, Trade-Exposed Industries for
the First Compliance Period
194 Washington Department of Ecology, "Overburdened Communities", Overburdened communities - Washington State Department of
Ecology
195 Washington State Fiscal Information, "A Legislative Guise to Washingtons Tax Structure" Accessed November 7th 2024
196 Employment Security Department, Washington State, "Unemployment Taxes" Accessed November 7th, 2024
197 Washington state Department of Ecology, “Hazardous Substance Tax - Washington State Department of Ecology” Accessed August
3, 2024.
198 Washington state Department of Revenue, “Oil spill response tax and oil spill administration tax | Washington Department of
Revenue” Accessed August 3, 2024.; Washington DOR Tax Reference Manual, “Oil Spill Tax”, August 2023. Oil Spill Tax - Tax Reference
Manual (wa.gov)
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Tax Type Total Due (in Millions $) Source Year Tax Revenue Uses
Pollution Liability Insurance Program
Petroleum Products tax $14.3 2023 Trust, Environmental Cleanup,
Other199
Motor vehicle fuel tax $0.1 2019 DOT, CRAB, TPA, TIB, Other 200
Total $290.0
Potentially Affected Tax Revenues: Environmental Protection
Taxes grouped in the environmental protection section are taxes paid by refineries, based on current
production that is then invested into pollution cleanup or prevention. This group contains the Hazardous
Substance Tax, Oil Spill tax, and Petroleum Products Tax.
Hazardous Substance Tax
Washington's Hazardous Substance Tax is a tax on the first possession of hazardous substances in
Washington. HST applies to petroleum products, certain pesticides and certain chemicals; the revenue
provides funding for the Department of Ecology and the Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA).201 202
The aggregated HST paid by Washington’s five refineries in calendar year 2023 was $137,890,531 by volume
and $3,476,261 by value.203 Total revenue collected for the HST from Washington's refineries was
$141,366,792 in calendar year 2023. This is an important distinction because petroleum products are difficult
to measure on a per-barrel basis. A barrel is considered approximately 42 gallons, but the finished products of
petroleum are not exclusively liquid. These products include, but are not limited to, petroleum coke, propane
and butane. Products that can be measured on a per barrel basis include, but are not limited to, gasoline,
aviation fuel, diesel, lubricating oil and bunker fuel.204 Since July 1, 2019, the HST has been a fixed volumetric
tax that is adjusted each year per inflation. From July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023, the rate was $1.20 per barrel
and from July 1, 2023, to June 30th, 2024, the tax rate per barrel was $1.40204.
Any potential closures or significant changes to the volume of petroleum products produced at Washington’s
refineries could impact both MTCA’s operations and the Department of Ecology’s operations when paired with
an overall decrease in refined petroleum product consumption. While imports of refined petroleum products to
meet demand would maintain some of this revenue, HST paid in other states can be deducted from HST paid
in Washington. This may lead to HST revenue decreases. Looking to the future, it is reasonable to expect a
decline in petroleum production as Washington works toward the Climate Commitment Act (CCA) goal of a
95% reduction in statewide emissions. These changes would lead to a decrease in this revenue, with
potentially significant impacts to operations. While these changes could also lead to a decrease in pollution,
199 Washington state Department of Revenue “Petroleum products tax | Washington Department of Revenue” Accessed September
16th, 2024
200 Washington state County Road Administration Board, "Fuel Tax Distribution", Accessed November 7th, 2024
201 Washington state Department of Ecology, “Hazardous Substance Tax - Washington State Department of Ecology” Accessed August
3, 2024.
202 Washington State Department of Ecology, “Model Toxics Control Act Capital Account: Ten-Year Financing Report 2022 (wa.gov)”
January 2023.
203 Information provided by the Department of Revenue by request, received July 29, 2024.
204 Washington state Department of Revenue, “Hazardous substance tax | Washington Department of Revenue” Accessed August 3,
2024.
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which would decrease need for environmental programs, there might continue to be legacy pollution that may
not be addressed.
Oil Spill Tax
The Oil Spill Tax (OST) refers to the combined administration of the Oil Spill Response Tax and the Oil Spill
Administration Tax.205 OST is applied at a per barrel rate. The Petroleum Product Tax (PPT) is applied to the
wholesale value of petroleum products. This tax is not collected every year, but rather reinstated or suspended
as needed to maintain account balances. The OST is collected when the oil spill response account falls to $8
million and is suspended when the account reaches a balance of $9 million. Generally, the tax is applied when
products are delivered to a marine terminal or bulk oil terminal via vessel or barge, rail tank car or pipeline. The
OST was expanded in 2018 to include some crude oil or petroleum products delivered via pipeline. The Oil Spill
Administration Tax pays for work related to oil spill prevention, response and habitat restoration, while the Oil
Spill Response Tax pays for oil spills with cleanup costs exceeding $50,000. Only $12.5 million was collected
toward this tax in fiscal year 2019, 0.02% of all state taxes.4 206
On June 14, 2024, Ecology adopted a new chapter of rule, Chapter 173-187 WAC Financial Responsibility. The
adopted rule ensures that vessel and facility owners and operators have adequate financial resources to pay
cleanup and damage costs arising from an oil spill. Anyone responsible for spilling oil into state waters is
liable for damages resulting from injuries to natural, cultural and historic and publicly owned resources.
Ecology works with other federal, state and local agencies and tribes to determine how best to assess injuries
and restore impacted resources.
Petroleum Products Tax
The Petroleum Products Tax (PPT) is a tax on the first possession of petroleum products in Washington and is
imposed on the wholesale value of petroleum products. PPT is collected when the Pollution Liability Insurance
Program Trust (PLIPT) falls below $15 million in the previous calendar quarter and is suspended once the
account balance exceeds $30 million in the previous calendar quarter. PPT is currently in effect and has been
since January of 2020.207 These funds are administered by the Pollution Liability Insurance Agency (PLIA) for
the pollution liability insurance program and emergency program. This includes the cleanup releases from
active and currently registered heating oil tanks, with up to $60,000 not covered by other insurances. PLIA also
administers a technical assistance program for qualifying petroleum sites.208 $24,776,000 was collected
toward this tax in fiscal year 2021, 0.08% of all state taxes.205 The five refineries paid an aggregated
$14,282,975 in PPT for 2023.209
Other Potentially Affected Tax Revenues
Other significant taxes will be those that generally are paid by most corporations. These taxes do not involve
pollution related activities. The direction the funds raised by the state vary by tax type, refer to Table 47 for
these brief allocation descriptions.
205 Washington state Department of Revenue, “Oil spill response tax and oil spill administration tax | Washington Department of
Revenue” Accessed August 3, 2024.; Washington DOR Tax Reference Manual, “Oil Spill Tax”, August 2023. Oil Spill Tax - Tax Reference
Manual (wa.gov)
206 Washington Research Council Economic Profile, “The Economic Contribution of Washington State’s Petroleum Refining Industry in
2019”, June 2021 https://researchcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021-Refinery-Report-Final.pdf
207 Washington state Department of Revenue “Petroleum products tax | Washington Department of Revenue” Accessed September
16th, 2024
208 Pollution Liability Insurance Agency, “About PLIA - The Pollution Liability Insurance Agency (wa.gov)”
209 Information provided by the Department of Revenue by request, received July 29, 2024.
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Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax
The Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax (MVFT) is paid by suppliers, distributors, refiners and blenders of fuel on each
gallon of fuel imported, produced or delivered from a terminal rack in Washington. This includes motor vehicle
fuel and special fuels, such a diesel, biodiesel, natural gas and propane.210 The WRC reported an aggregated
value of $100,000 paid by the refineries in 2019. The MVFT is used to provide funds for road repair and
maintenance, among other things.
However, it is important to consider that as Washington begins using more electric vehicles to meet
decarbonization goals, this tax revenue will decline. The revenue collected by the MVFT has been decreasing
since 2019 and is expected to continue declining as electric vehicles become more integrated into
Washington’s fleet. Current fuel tax revenue models do not account for this change. The Washington State
Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) revenue model currently forecasts a slow decline in gasoline
sales and relatively constant diesel sales. The next round of modeling, which is currently in progress, will
integrate potential EV adoption rates in its modeling. It can be expected that gasoline sales and the
corresponding tax revenue will fall by 14% or more, informed by the projected fuel demands discussed in other
sections of this report. When and how fast this decline happens is highly dependent upon incentives and
infrastructure that facilitate the move away from internal combustion engine vehicles.
The Washington State Transportation Council’s (WSTC) revenue model, which was updated in June 2024,
predicted 8% and 11% of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMTs) originating from electric vehicles by 2050 using two
EIA reference cases. They also modeled two other scenarios, with the most optimistic case (based on
Bloomberg’s high electrification scenario) culminating in 87% of VMT attributed to EVs in 2050. This model
reported an anticipated MVFT of just $223,682,315 in 2050, using these electrification scenarios. However, this
model also forecasted increasing revenues from a Road Usage Charge (RUC), to help compensate for the loss
of revenue from MVFT. The RUC is recommended by WSTC to begin implementation as a voluntary program in
2025 and become required in 2027 for all models year 2028 and newer. This program would utilize annual
odometer mileage readings to administer per mile fees. This program has been in development since 2012, as
improved fuel efficiencies and EVs began to threaten this revenue source. The WSTC model projects a gross
revenue of $1.068 billion by 2050, with separate rates based on urban or rural residency. There is an estimated
$6 million cost of administration for this same scenario. Current forecasts include a drop to under $1 billion in
revenue from MVFT by 2035, coinciding with a mandate for 100% zero emissions vehicles sales in Washington
and a full phase out of new internal combustion engine vehicles.
Local Property Taxes
The refineries are significant contributors to local revenue, paying an estimated $21.7 million in property taxes
in 2019.211 If the refineries transition use or close outright, the removal or renovation of equipment may
significantly impact local revenues. Per discussions with the Skagit County Assessor, the refineries impact
overall property tax rates due to their significant contributions in their tax districts. The reduction in payments
by refinery owners would result in an increase in tax obligations of other property owners, due to Washington's
budget-based approach to levying property taxes. 212
210 Washington state Department of Revenue “Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax” Accessed September 16th, 2024
211 Washington Research Council Economic Profile, “The Economic Contribution of Washington State’s Petroleum Refining Industry in
2019”, June 2021 https://researchcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021-Refinery-Report-Final.pdf
212 MRSC, "Property Tax Basics", Accessed November 7th, 2024.
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Business & Occupation Taxes
The Business & Occupation (B&O) tax was the second largest share of total taxed paid by refineries in 2023, at
$96.6 million, or 33% of the total.213 The B&O tax rate on manufacturers was 0.484% (0.00484) of total gross
receipts. 214 Goods manufactured and sold within the state are subject to both the manufacturing B&O tax and
retail sales tax.
Retail Sales and Use Taxes
In 2019, refineries contributed $2 million to retail sales and use tax revenues, which is 6.8% of the $290 million
total.215
Unemployment Compensation Taxes
In 2019 refineries accounted for $1.4 million to Unemployment Compensation taxes, which is less than 1% of
the total.215
213 Department of Revenue, data pulled by request “Combined Excise Tax Returns” Accessed July 29th, 2024; See Table 47
214 Washington state Department of Revenue “Business and Occupation (B&O) tax | Washington Department of Revenue” Accessed
September 16th, 2024
215 Washington Research Council Economic Profile, “The Economic Contribution of Washington State’s Petroleum Refining Industry in
2019”, June 2021 https://researchcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2021-Refinery-Report-Final.pdf
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Chapter 4: Refinery Workforce Analysis
Key Finding 8. Alternative industries for impacted workers exist in Pierce, Skagit and Whatcom counties,
though at present these opportunities are not sufficient for scenarios where refinery workforce declines
significantly.
8.1 Apprenticeships and on-the-job training (OJT) are commonly used at refineries, but many workers
lack formal credentials and certifications. This could make transferring to alternative industries difficult.
8.2 Refinery workers have hard and soft skills which could be valuable in other professions.
8.3 There are industries in nearby counties which could be suitable for displaced refinery workers,
though there are not currently a sufficient number of such opportunities to make up for a significant
employment decline at refineries.
8.4 Displaced employees are likely to experience lower levels of pay upon transitioning to careers
outside of the refinery industry.
Introduction
This chapter aims to present key data regarding refinery worker skillsets and compare skillsets, benefits and
other refinery workforce characteristics with potential alternative sectors and industries. This information
could be valuable to refinery workers considering future changes to their employment, including from refinery
layoffs or closures. It could also help these workers, their unions where relevant and the broader communities
surrounding refineries to consider and plan for possible changes in career that may result from changes to the
refinery sector. As this section will demonstrate, there are alternative sectors in Pierce, Skagit and Whatcom
Counties that may utilize the skills of many classes of refinery employees. However, there are limitations to the
extent and availability of such jobs within these counties. Additionally, there is uncertainty about the timing of
these potential transitions. In addition, other emerging industries may develop over time which this report does
not attempt to model but which may provide additional opportunities for workforce transition in future.
The Washington refinery industry serves as a pivotal hub for refining operations on the West Coast of the
United States. As Washington advances economy-wide deep decarbonization in accordance with state
mandates to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, clean fuel standard programs in Washington and
around the region and other related policies, refinery operations are expected to shift. These potential shifts —
including changes in product mix or function as described in Chapter 3— would have significant implications
on refinery employment and employees themselves.
Useful regional analyses that assess the potential workforce implications of a transition to a clean energy
economy indicate that there may be significant job growth in the fuels sector in Washington and the
Northwest. However, it is still important to assess more specific details about how accessible such jobs may
be for refinery workers, relative pay and benefits, geographic proximity and other relevant considerations.
Washington's current refinery workforce
Washington's refineries employ approximately 2,200 people across all five facilities as permanent employees,
with an equal or greater number of contractors over the course of a year. To understand and articulate the
potential impacts of shifts in Washington refinery operations on this employment base, this report
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incorporates and builds on analysis from the Clean Energy Transition Institute (CETI) in the Net-Zero
Northwest Workforce Analysis216 (NZNW). Discussions with Washington's Workforce Training and Education
Coordinating Board and the United Steelworkers (USW) Union also helped inform this analysis.
This report uses a mix of national industry and occupation data to help discuss employment at refineries
without discussing one refinery in particular. The analysis utilizes the JobsEQ Real-Time Analysis (RTI) Job
Posting database. The national data set pulls information from 45,000 source websites to show the number of
job postings for a relevant search and corresponding hard skills, soft skills, education levels and on-the-job
training (OJT) referenced within postings. This assessment is localized to Washington and to employers within
the state. Hard skills are considered to be measurable capabilities that are specific to the job, while soft skills
are attributes that are considered transferrable between jobs and often form as a result of reacting to one's
surroundings. The most desired hard and soft skills are provided, along with common education and OJT
metrics listing. Utilizing petroleum as a keyword, 332 job postings in Washington from August 2023-2024 were
identified to inform the following analysis.
Certifications and Training Programs
Petroleum refineries employ a diverse set of workers, requiring varying levels of prior education and training.
Notably, any positions progress through registered apprenticeship programs or other forms of OJT, while
some other positions require four-year degrees.
The Role of Apprenticeships
Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an apprenticeship is defined as a "formal relationship between a worker and
a sponsor that consists of a combination of on-the-job training and related occupation-specific instruction in
which the worker learns the practical and theoretical aspects of an occupation." 217 In Washington, the
Department of Labor and Industries (L&I) manages a database of registered apprenticeship programs and
provides oversight regarding accessibility and standards. 218 Apprenticeships exist in many sectors including
aerospace, medical, technology and many building and construction trades.
In refineries specifically, some occupations that may utilize apprenticeships include machinists, millwrights,
carpenters, welders, plumbers, pipefitters, steamfitters and boilermakers. In addition to the permanent
employees on site, contractors may work on site for maintenance or repairs to refinery infrastructure. This
often includes additional plumbers, welders, painters and helpers (who support materials handling and work
area management) to supplement the existing workforce. Particularly during turnarounds, a type of
maintenance event that typically occurs every three to five years, large numbers of contractors may double or
triple the number of workers on site. These contractors may come from out of state to help support
turnarounds.
On-the-job training and other pathways
Many of the permanent (as opposed to contractor) refinery workforce sectors are not part of occupations that
offer apprenticeships. These workers often progress through long careers at the refineries through OJT,
provided by the employer and/or a relevant union. Of Washington's five refineries, four have a permanent
workforce that is represented by a union, the United Steelworkers (USW) union.
216 https://www.nznw.org/workforce
217 Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Glossary”, Accessed August 24th, 2024. https://www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm
218 Washington State Department of Labor and Industries, “Become an Apprentice,” accessed 9.20.2024.
https://www.lni.wa.go`v/licensing-permits/apprenticeship/become-an-apprentice
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Certifications and credentials
A unique challenge faced by many refinery employees who might seek to transition to other facilities or
industries is a lack of formal certifications that can be obtained throughout their careers in the refinery sector.
For many operations staff, the only formal educational requirement is a high school diploma, or for some
positions, an associate's degree. Few formal certifications accompany a traditional career in refineries.
Because testing and certification that would result in these formal credentials are not typically offered, refinery
workers, even those with many years of experience, may have difficulty in providing detailed information
regarding specific skills they have been trained in or mastered related to their refinery position.
The UC Berkeley Labor Center report "Fossil fuel layoff: The economic and employment effects of a refinery
closure on workers in the Bay Area" 219 captured some of these difficulties through surveys and interviews with
refinery workers seeking employment after the closure of Marathon's Martinez, a California refinery. The
refinery has since been converted to a biofuel refinery, with sustained decreases in employment. 220
Recommendations from the report on how to assist workers in the transition included identifying or creating
technical classes with formal certifications. These formal certifications, if recognized within the refining
industry and related industries, can help workers verify skills and communicate them as part of future job
searches. For workers who do not participate in union apprenticeship programs, but rather learn on site
through employer training programs, verification of skills may be difficult absent additional programming or
other forms of support to review and catalogue skills. Contrastingly, engineers working at refineries may have
a bachelor's or a master's degree, alongside other professional licensing.
Employment verification was also identified as a key issue in the UC Berkeley report. Refineries can and do
change owners, who may only verify employment after their acquisition of operations. The report also
recommends the expansion of training programs in clean energy fields, a conclusion echoed in the results of
the True Transition survey American Oil & Gas workers.221 Generally, unit operators are among the most
vulnerable of employees in the event of refinery closure. As discussed later, the wide variance of refinery
infrastructure and operations can limit transferable skills.
To help better understand refinery workforces, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) major occupational groups,
as defined in the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC), are compiled in Table 52. These groups
aggregate occupations based on work performed and sometimes based on skills, education or training
required for the work. Currently, cross industry and occupational data is only available at the national level.
219 Parks, Virginia, and Ian Baran. 2023. “Fossil fuel layoff: The economic and employment effects of
a refinery closure on workers in the Bay Area.” Berkeley, CA: UC Berkeley Labor Center.
220 Mukherjee, S., "Martinez oil refinery cleared to start producing more 'renewable' biofuels". East Bay Times: Web Edition Articles (CA).
221 Milliken Biven, Megan and Leo Lindner, “The Future of Energy & Work in the United States: The American Oil & Gas Worker Survey”,
True Transition, March 2023.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 95
Table 52: Major Occupational Groups within the Petroleum and Coal Manufacturing
Industry (NAICS 324100), ordered by percentage of total employment, per Bureau of
Labor Statistics Analysis. 222
SOC Major occupation Percentage of total
Example positions contained in this occupational group
Code group employment
51- Production
38.92% Machinists, plant and system operators, welders, helpers
0000 occupations
Transportation and
53- Heavy and tractor trailer truck drivers, pumping station operators, industrial truck
material moving 8.88%
0000 and tractor operators
occupations
11- Management Executives, general and operations managers, construction managers, facilities
8.56%
0000 occupations managers, emergency management directors
Installation,
49-
maintenance and 7.97% Millwrights, machinery maintenance workers, industrial machinery mechanics
0000
repair occupations
Architecture and
17- Chemical engineers, environmental engineers, industrial engineers (including
engineering 7.55%
0000 health and safety), petroleum engineers
occupations
Construction and
47- Boilermakers, construction laborers, plumbers, pipefitters, steamfitters,
extraction 7.44%
0000 electricians
occupations
Business and
13- financial
6.69% Compliance Officers, logisticians, accountants and auditors
0000 operations
occupations
Office and
43- administrative
5.99% Financial clerks, payroll and timekeeping clerks, procurement clerks, dispatchers
0000 support
occupations
Life, physical and
19- Chemists, environmental scientists and specialists (including health),
social science 3.96%
0000 occupational health and safety specialists
occupations
41- Sales and related
2.13% Sales representatives, sales engineers
0000 occupations
Computer and
15-
mathematical 1.11% Software developers, information security analysts, computer systems analysts
0000
occupations
33- Protective service
0.28% Firefighters, security guards, crossing guards and flaggers
0000 occupations
Building and
37- grounds cleaning
0.17% Landscaping and groundskeeping workers, janitors and cleaners
0000 and maintenance
occupations
222 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "May 2023 National Industry-Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates: NAICS
324100- Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing", Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing - May 2023 OEWS Industry-
Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates (bls.gov)
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 96
SOC Major occupation Percentage of total
Example positions contained in this occupational group
Code group employment
Arts, design,
27- entertainment,
0.15% Public relations specialists, graphic designers
0000 sports and media
occupations
Approximately sixty-four percent of petroleum and coal products manufacturing workers are in the following
four major occupational groups, with the largest proportion of workers in production occupations at 38.92%.223
These occupations were chosen because of their involvement in day-to-day productions and maintenance.
Other occupational groups, such as management occupations or architecture and engineering occupations,
appear in the table above but are not discussed as closely here. Unit operators, who are especially vulnerable
in the event of a refinery closure, fall under production occupations.
Production Occupations, which includes:
• Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators and Gaugers
• Chemical Processing Machine Setters, Operators and Tenders
• Machinists
• Welders, Cutters, Solderers and Brazers
• Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations, which includes:
• Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
• Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators
• Pump Operators, Except Wellhead Pumpers
• Tank Car, Truck and Ship Loaders
Installation, Maintenance and Repair Occupations, which includes:
• Electrical and Electronic Equipment Mechanics, Installers and Repairers
• Control and Valve Installers and Repairers
• Industrial Machinery Mechanics
• Maintenance Workers, Machinery
Construction and Extraction Occupations, which includes:
• Boilermakers
• Construction Laborers
• Electricians
• Plumbers, Pipefitters and Steamfitters
223 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "May 2023 National Industry-Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates: NAICS
324100- Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing", Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing - May 2023 OEWS Industry-
Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates (bls.gov)
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 97
Evaluating 332 job postings in Washington between August 2023 and August 2024 224 using the JobsEQ RTI
database, the consultant team sorted desired certifications into three categories. This analysis helps identify
certifications sought by refineries, which workers may also utilize in another industry. Certifications that are
more likely to belong to administration and management are in Table 54, whereas skills for refinery operations
and maintenance are grouped into another table. A final category is composed of requirements related to
engineering occupations. The majority of these certifications are pertinent to refinery operations and
maintenance, with only two falling into management and administration and six related to engineers or
scientists in refineries. Some themes include emergency response skills, hazardous material safety and
handling and equipment operating skills.
Some transferable credentials applicable to refinery employees include the Transportation Worker
Identification Credential (TWIC), Commercial Driver’s License (CDL), Certified Welding Inspector (CWI) and
National Center for Construction Education & Research Certification (NCCER). TWIC is particularly relevant
because of Washington refineries' access to marine terminals and may not be relevant at inland refineries.
This credential is issued after the Transportation Security Administration conducts a security threat
assessment, or background check, to determine eligibility. All five of Washington's refineries have marine
terminal access, which means that the Maritime Transportation Security Act requirements for workers and
TWIC requirement applies.
Others of these certifications are trade-specific and require a mixture of on-the-job experience and education.
For example, the Certified Welding Inspector certification is offered by the American Welding Society (AWS).
AWS requires a mixture of education and experience before you can apply and test for CWI. CDL's require a
knowledge test for permitting, followed by a skills test before licensure. Certain CDL's require HAZMAT training
before the license is issued.
For refinery employees that have completed four-year degrees, some relevant transferable credentials include
the Certified Industrial Hygienist (CIH), Licensed Professional Engineer and Certified Safety Professional
(CSP). Each of these certifications require a four-year degree. Some of these certifications build on each other.
The Engineer-in-Training (EIT) license and certification indicates the completion of the NCEES Fundamentals
of Engineering exam in addition to a four-year degree. To attain a Professional Engineer (PE) license, an
engineer must have an EIT license and work under a Professional Engineer for four years. Once this experience
requirement is met, the Principle and Practice of Engineering exam can be taken to become a PE. In this way,
these certifications are cumulative due to a mix of continuing education and experience.
Table 53: Most Desired Certifications for Refinery Operations and Maintenance,
ranked by occurrence.
Skill Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Driver's License 78 23.5%
Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC) 42 12.7%
Commercial Driver's License (CDL) 39 11.7%
HAZMAT 26 7.8%
Class A Commercial Driver's License (CDL-A) 12 3.6%
Certification in Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) 11 3.3%
224 Chmura, JobsEQ Real-Time Intelligence (Job Postings) Data set, retrieved August 24, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 98
Skill Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
First Aid Certification 9 2.7%
Class B Commercial Driver's License (CDL-B) 8 2.4%
Forklift Certified 4 1.2%
Secret Clearance 4 1.2%
Certified Welding Inspector 3 0.9%
Emergency Response 3 0.9%
National Center for Construction Education and Research
3 0.9%
Certification (NCCER)
API 510 Pressure Vessels Inspector Certification 2 0.6%
API 570 Piping Inspector Certification 2 0.6%
Industrial Electronics Certification (IND) 2 0.6%
OSHA 30 2 0.6%
Source: JobsEQ RTI Database.225
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 99
Table 54: Most Desired Certifications for Refinery Management and Administration,
ranked by occurrence.
Skill Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Certified Public Accountant (CPA) 20 6%
Project Management Professional 3 0.9%
Source: JobsEQ RTI Database.225
Table 55: Most Desired Certifications for Refinery Engineers and Scientists, ranked
by occurrence.
Skill Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Certified Industrial Hygienist (CID) 27 8.1%
Certified Safety Professional (CSP) 17 5.1%
Engineer in Training (EIT) 15 4.5%
Licensed Professional Engineer 14 4.2%
Exercise Physiologist Certification (EPC) 4 1.2%
Certified Hazardous Materials Manager (CHMM) 2 0.6%
Source: JobsEQ RTI Database.226
Trade Work in Petroleum Refining
For many of the trades involved in refinery operations, a GED or high school diploma are the required education
for an entry-level position. This allows an employee to take either an apprenticeship or a position as a helper or
tradesperson. Helpers and tradespeople are entry-level positions in trade work, and typically lead to an
apprenticeship. From there, an apprentice completes a mixture of OJT and classwork. In many trades,
positions progress in this order: helper or tradesperson; apprentice; journeyman; and then master. Typical
minimum requirements for apprenticeships include 2,000 hours of OJT over three to five years. Each of these
steps involve different experience requirements and testing for licensure. Many of these trades are supported
by unions, which help operate training programs and advocate for workers. Union membership in the U.S.
peaked in the 1950s at approximately 34% of workers, plateauing to 10% of workers in 2022. Unions help
provide protections for workers through non-wage benefits, in addition to a “union wage premium”. 227
"Unit operators" refers to a broad range of positions in a refinery, including board operator, crude unit operator,
hydrotreater operator and more. The number of operating units at a refinery varies based on their operational
specifics. Common units include hydrocracking units, crude oil distillation units, reformers, fluid catalytic
cracking units, coking units, alkylation units, sulfur recovery units and isomerization units.
Unit operators are often trained in a position for 10 months to a year, with commonly anywhere from four to
eight positions in a unit. Three or four years are spent working as a trainee, with steps toward full operator pay
as they gain more experience. It can take anywhere from six to eight years, or even longer, to be fully trained on
a unit. The United Steelworkers Union in Washington represents union unit operators. Unit operator training is
225 Chmura, JobsEQ Real-Time Intelligence (Job Postings) Data set, retrieved August 24, 2024.
226 Chmura, JobsEQ Real-Time Intelligence (Job Postings) Data set, retrieved August 24, 2024.
227 Feiveson, Laura, “Labor Unions and the U.S. Economy”, U.S. Department of the Treasury, August 28, 2023.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 100
typically done on site through an employer. Additional vocational training or an associate's degree are
common, but not required. Operators begin at a facility as an operator trainee or utility helper and progress
through the operations department into different positions.
Of refineries in Washington where there is union representation, approximately half of their total employees are
union members. Four of Washington's five refineries employ union workers. Notably, nationally non-union
workers' weekly earnings were 86% of union workers' earnings in 2023. 228 In 2015, USW workers went on
strike at nine refineries, including the Tesoro Anacortes refinery, 229 now owned by Marathon. USW and other
unions have raised concerns that as union workers retire or leave a refinery contractors replace them. This
particularly affects building trade union workers who perform maintenance and construction at refineries.230
Contractors in Petroleum Refining
Contractors, as opposed to permanent employees, are workers who are hired to perform a specific task or
project for a limited period of time. They work at the refineries only for the duration of their contract. Some
contractors are local, but other contractors may come from different states to meet refinery needs.
Contractors may also be represented by unions. Over the course of a year, more than 2,000 contractors are
employed across all five refinery sites, which is approximately equal to the number of permanent refinery
employees. These contractors can work nearly year-round in an area, on a variety of projects or may come to
an area for a few months specifically for turnaround operations and other shutdowns.
Turnarounds are elaborate, large scale maintenance events that can double or even triple the number of
workers on site and involve round the clock work to minimize operations impacts. Turnarounds happen every
three to five years and can take anywhere from a few weeks to several months.231 They require extensive
planning processes and logistical management, sometime as long as two years.232 Turnarounds require large
numbers of skilled workers, and some contractors exclusively coordinate and manage turnover. This can send
workers all over the country as they travel to refineries to supplement the existing workforce and complete
specialized work.233 Turnarounds require additional safety procedures and are essential to maintaining the
safety of refinery operations. In addition to replacing or repairing equipment, upgrades are often also
implemented. Delaying a turnaround can lead to increased costs at a refinery, raise safety concerns and lead
to an unplanned shutdown. Concerns have been raised by unions about refineries nationwide hiring non-union
contractors despite long established relationships with union contractors, particularly in periods of new
ownership.230
Shutdowns are another type of disruption to operations and can be planned or unplanned. They involve the
shutdown of specific units for maintenance and are used to help bridge the gap between turnarounds.
Unplanned shutdowns may be delayed by equipment and contractor availability, due to a shorter planning
window. Emergency shutdowns can be triggered for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to a loss of
utilities, unsafe conditions due to extreme weather or a fire. While shutdowns may not require the same
number of contractors as a turnaround, they may be involved in helping refineries resume normal function.
All of these events reduce or can temporarily halt refinery output. This is largely determined by the refinery’s
internal processes, which vary broadly and are outside the scope of this report. Turnarounds are typically in the
228 Bureau of Labor Statistics, “News Release: Union Members 2023”, January 23, 2024.
229 United Steel Workers, “National Oil Bargaining Talks Break Down: USW Calls for Work Stoppage at Nine Oil Refineries, Plants”,
February 1, 2015.
230 Sanicola, Laura, "Unions push back as U.S. refiners shunt aside longtime trade workers", Reuters, May 3, 2021.
231 Kendrick Oil Company, “What are Refinery Shutdowns and Turnarounds?”, June 2, 2017.
232 Energy Information Administration, “Refinery Outages: Description and Potential Impact on Petroleum Product Prices”, March 2007.
233 Barnes, Sam. "Far-flung turnaround, maintenance contractors tackle culture shock and new environs.", 10/12 Industry Report.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 101
fall or spring, during periods of expected lower demand for gasoline. As such, there are seasonal flows to
contractor employment. The limited nature of highly specialized employees for turnaround work, means that
they are in high demand seasonally. Contractors, depending on length of stay, can provide significant revenue
to local communities by purchasing food, lodging and other items. It is difficult to calculate precise impacts of
contractor presence in a community due to the irregular nature of their stays.
In Demand Occupations
When analyzing RTI job posting data between August 2023 and August 2024, some occupations that are
relevant to the refining industry but outside of production-related occupations were captured. To help separate
them, this analysis replicates the tables of desired certifications, but includes an additional retail workforce
table. Occupations in Table 56 are reflective of work that is important to the overall management of refineries
as a business, but is less hands-on than occupations related to operations and maintenance in Error! R
eference source not found.. Table 57 captures the occupations related to retail workforce, such as cashiers,
first-line supervisors of retail sales workers and stockers and order fillers. These positions are more closely
associated with the sales and distribution of final petroleum products, rather than with their production. Table
58 contains occupations relevant to engineers and scientists, which may require a four-year degree or more to
complete. Positions are ranked by number of active job ads. This chapter does not otherwise discuss positions
related to retail sales of refined petroleum products.
Table 56: Most Desired Positions for Refinery Operations and Maintenance, ranked by
occurrence.
Occupation Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers 85 25.6%
Maintenance and repair workers, general 56 16.9%
Automotive service technicians and mechanics 27 8.1%
Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists 15 4.5%
Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers and weighers 15 4.5%
Production workers, all other 13 3.9%
Source: JobsEQ RTI Database.234
Table 57: Most Desired Positions for Refinery Management and Administration,
ranked by occurrence.
Occupation Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Accountants and auditors 33 9.9%
Human resources specialists 24 7.2%
Human resources specialists 24 7.2%
Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical 6%
and executive 20
First-line supervisors of material-moving machine and vehicle 5.4%
Operators 18
234 Chmura, JobsEQ Real-Time Intelligence (Job Postings) Data set, retrieved August 24, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 102
Occupation Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks 16 4.8%
Sales representatives of services, except advertising, insurance, 4.5%
financial services and travel 15
Source: JobsEQ RTI Database.235
Table 58: Most Desired Positions for Retail Workforce of Refinery Products, ranked
by occurrence.
Occupation Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Retail salespersons 61 18.4%
Cashiers 38 11.4%
First-line supervisors of retail sales workers 34 10.2%
Stockers and order fillers 33 9.9%
Source: JobsEQ RTI Database.236
Table 59: Most Desired Positions for Refinery Engineers and Scientists, ranked by
occurrence.
Occupation Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Occupational health and safety specialists 47 14.2%
Architectural and engineering managers 40 12%
Civil engineers 21 6.3%
Environmental scientists and specialists, including health 21 6.3%
Environmental engineers 16 4.8%
Architectural and civil drafters 15 4.5%
Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers and weighers 15 4.5%
Compliance officers 14 4.2%
Source: JobsEQ RTI Database.237
Hard and Soft Skills
Most Relevant Hard Skills
In addition to analyzing the desired certifications and positions, the consultant team analyzed the most
relevant hard skills for various refinery jobs. This section utilizes RTI job posting data on hard skills to identify
desired skills for refinery employees. It is clear within the listed skills that physical capability is an essential
component of many refinery jobs. Additionally, skills utilized by on-site engineers such as Computer Aided
Design Software (CAD) are present in the dataset. Welders and other tradesmen may also utilize this type of
software. These results are sorted into two tables. The first table contains skills relevant to refinery operations,
235 Chmura, JobsEQ Real-Time Intelligence (Job Postings) Data set, retrieved August 24, 2024.
236 Chmura, JobsEQ Real-Time Intelligence (Job Postings) Data set, retrieved August 24, 2024.
237 Chmura, JobsEQ Real-Time Intelligence (Job Postings) Data set, retrieved August 24, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 103
the second contains skills relevant to management and administration. Skills related to Microsoft Office
products like Microsoft Word and PowerPoint have been consolidated into one skill, labeled Microsoft 365. As
a result, the Microsoft 365 skill is counted more times than the total number of ads. English is also contained
within both tables. Due to the overlap in some skills between operators and engineers, they are contained in
the same table.
Table 60: Most Desired Hard Skills Related to Refinery Operations, ranked by
occurrence.
Skill Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Ability to lift 51-100 lbs. 174 52.4%
Ability to lift 41-50 lbs. 132 39.8%
Mathematics 76 22.9%
Tankers 54 16.3%
Autodesk AutoCAD 53 16%
Plumbing 53 15.4%
Mechanical 51 15.4%
Hazardous Waste Operations and Emergency Response 10.8%
36
Standard (HAZWOPER)
Teaching/training, job 34 10.2%
Forklifts 24 7.2%
English 24 7.2%
Ability to lift 21-30 lbs. 22 6.6%
Hazardous materials safety & handling 21 6.3%
Data analysis 20 6%
Computer Aided Design Software (CAD Software) 19 5.7%
Source: JobsEQ RTI Database.238
Table 61: Most Desired Hard Skills Related to Refinery Management and
Administration, ranked by occurrence.
Skill Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Microsoft 365 489 147.3%
Technical writing 29 8.7%
Finance 25 7.5%
Systems applications and products, enterprise resource planning 7.5%
25
software
English 24 7.2%
238 Chmura, JobsEQ Real-Time Intelligence (Job Postings) Data set, retrieved August 24, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 104
Skill Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Personal Computers (PC) 23 6.9%
Point of Sale Systems (POS Systems) 20 6%
Source: JobsEQ RTI Database.239
Most Relevant Soft Skills
Communication, cooperativeness and attention to detail are all included within the top five soft skills. This is
consistent with the demanding environment of petroleum refineries; wherein meticulous attention is important
to ensure safety and smooth operations. Additionally, the shift-based team operations require communication
and teamwork. Similarly, adaptability, willingness to learn and ability to work in a fast-paced environment are
consistent with the variable nature of refinery work. Many refinery employees develop their skills through
apprenticeships or other forms of OJT. These skills are not separated in the same manner as previous
sections, in part because they could apply to a broad range of positions. Additionally, multiple mentions of
skills in job postings has resulted in two skills with more mentions than total job ads.
Table 62: Most Desired Soft Skills for Workers at Petroleum Refineries in
Washington, ranked by occurrence.
Skill Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Communication (verbal and written skills) 727 219%
Cooperative/team Player 400 120.5%
Customer service 270 81.3%
Detail oriented/meticulous 265 79.8%
Self-motivated/ability to work independently/self leadership 258 77.7%
Organization 253 76.2%
Analytical 156 47%
Project management 148 44.6%
Supervision/management 142 42.8%
Problem solving 128 38.6%
Adaptability/flexibility/tolerance of change and uncertainty 125 37.7%
Interpersonal relationships/maintain relationships 105 31.6%
Ability to work in a fast-paced environment 100 30.1%
Good judgment 89 26.8%
Prioritize 89 26.8%
Work ethic/hard working 74 22.3%
Punctual 69 20.8%
Coachable/willingness to learn 58 17.5%
Multi-task 54 16.3%
239 Chmura, JobsEQ Real-Time Intelligence (Job Postings) Data set, retrieved August 24, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 105
Skill Name Number of Active Job Ads Percentage of Active Job Ads
Initiative 53 16%
Time management/time utilization 46 13.9%
Enthusiastic/energetic 45 13.6%
Negotiation 44 13.3%
Competitiveness 43 13%
Efficiency 43 13%
Source: JobsEQ RTI Database.240
Looking Ahead
This study involves developing and assessing numerous scenarios that refineries may experience in future
years and investigating the economic and workforce impacts. The eight scenarios could result in varying
durations and severity of job dislocation (full discussion of impacts occurs in Chapter 3). Multiple scenarios
investigated in this report would correspond to significant layoffs for workers, including:
• Scenario 5: Change in Function; Storage Facility
• Scenario 7: Change in Function; Closure and Redevelopment
• Scenario 8: Change in Function; Closure without Redevelopment
Given these employment shifts and the potential for layoffs in certain scenarios, it is important to consider
what other job opportunities might be accessible for the refinery workforce given their existing skills. These
jobs may be either in other refinery operations or in other sectors of the economy. This study evaluates the
anticipated availability of such alternate positions in Pierce, Skagit and Whatcom Counties. Evaluating
opportunities in the counties where refineries are based is important in order to support workers that wish to
remain in the same geographic area and because relocation costs can present a significant economic burden
for workers and their families.
Worker Impacts Post-Closure or Conversion
Variance of specific systems and equipment used across refineries can impede the ability of workers to
transfer to another site after closure of their current site. For unit operators, refinery closure can mean
significant geographic relocation to remain in the field. These workers may transfer within the operating
company they were already employed with, which can result in a maintained wage rate. For workers who
relocate to a refinery owned by a different company, a significant pay decrease while training at the new facility
is common. Even if workers have decades of experience, they may be starting off at entry-level wages.
Depending on experience level, this can be a $15-20/hour decrease from a worker's previous wage levels.
Particularly for workers who change from union positions to non-union positions, wages levels may
significantly decrease.
Several potential future refinery scenarios examined in this study involve changing in function from
conventional refineries to biorefineries. Currently, the majority of U.S. biorefineries operate with significantly
240 Chmura, JobsEQ Real-Time Intelligence (Job Postings) Data set, retrieved August 24, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 106
less staff241 compared to prior operations as a conventional refinery. 242 An exception to this is the Dickinson,
North Dakota refinery, which grew by 20 employees after converting to renewable diesel production.243 These
conversions could cause workers to move to other positions in oil and gas, the utility sector or chemical
treatment in an attempt to retain previous wage rates. A UC Berkeley report244 found that workers report worse
working conditions in new positions, with a specific emphasis on significant safety concerns.
The relatively new emergence of alternative refining leaves many potential hazards unknown due to each
facility’s unique design.245 Marathon’s Martinez Biofuel Refinery, a recently converted facility, has experienced
safety incidents and violations that have impacted workers. Two fires in November 2023 reinforced union
claims that training for biorefining units was deficient.246 California Division of Occupational Safety and Health
(Cal/OSHA) fined the refinery $188,000 for eight serious safety regulation violations and three other violations.
The U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) investigation is still ongoing, and Marathon
contests the violations.247 The violations include: failure to address hazards on unit during process hazard
analysis, failure to implement written procedures with clear instructions, failure to prepare training certification
and that testing procedures did not ensure competency of job skill levels and safe and healthy work
practices.248 Changes to unit configuration when converting the diesel hydrotreater unit to a
hydrodeoxygenation unit are referenced by CBS and Cal/OSHA as potential contributing factors. The injured
Marathon employee suffered burns to 90% of his body, resulting in the loss of both pinky fingers, and he is still
undergoing treatment six months after the fire.249
Additionally, the establishment of new biofuel production facilities can be hindered by the large capital
investment required by facility owners, which makes repurposing existing brownfield sites and relevant
equipment a possible strategy to developing alternative fuel capacity. 250Another notable concern for refineries
that convert to biofuel facilities is the timelines for retraining. 246 Newer training programs may operate on a 6-
8 month timeline, as opposed to a typical 10-12 month training at conventional refineries. Unions have raised
concerns about these shorter timelines, claiming that training for biorefining units are deficient.Error! B
ookmark not defined.
Another consideration is related to Process Safety Management (PSM), a set of regulations that help workers
and refinery owners protect against and reduce risk of catastrophic incidents.251 PSM regulations apply in oil
241 Specific examples of refinery employment impacts can be found in Chapter 3, including the Marathon Martinez biofuel refinery
among others.
242 Alexander, Ann, "Biofuel Conversions: A Chance to Model Just Transition", Natural Resources Defense Council, November 19, 2020.
243 Marathon Petroleum Corporation/One Energy, “Marathon Dickinson Renewable Fuels Facility.”
244 Parks, Virginia, and Ian Baran. 2023. “Fossil fuel layoff: The economic and employment effects of
a refinery closure on workers in the Bay Area.” Berkeley, CA: UC Berkeley Labor Center.
245 California Occupation Safety and Health Standards Board, “Proposed Petition Decision of the Occupational Safety and Health
Standards Board (Petition File No. 601)”, June 20, 2024.
246 Goldberg, Ted, “Federal Agency Probes Marathon’s Martinez Refinery After Two Large Fires Last Month”, KQED, Dec 5, 2023.
247 Occupational Safety and Health Administration, “Inspection Detail; Inspection: 1711945.015- Tesoro Refining & Marketing Company
Llc.”, Accessed August 24, 2024.
248 California Occupation Safety and Health Standards Board, “Citations-Tesoro-Refining-Marathon”, Published May 30, 2024 at 650 x
1000 in Citations, Legislation in Renewables Incident.
249 Goldberg, Ted, “Marathon’s Martinez Refinery Hit With State Fines Over Fire That Burned Worker”, KQED, May 29, 2024.
250 Brandt, K., Camenzind, D., Zhu, J.Y., Latta, G., Gao, J. and Wolcott, M. (2022), Methodology for quantifying the impact of repurposing
existing manufacturing facilities: case study using pulp and paper facilities for sustainable aviation fuel production. Biofuels, Bioprod.
Bioref., 16: 1227-1239; Lifeng Zhang, Ana Inés Torres, Bingzhen Chen, Zhihong Yuan, Ignacio E. Grossmann, “Optimal Retrofitting of
Conventional Oil Refinery into Sustainable Bio-refinery under Uncertainty”, Computer Aided Chemical Engineering, Elsevier, Volume 52,
2023, Pages 247-253, ISSN 1570-7946, ISBN 9780443152740,.
251 Washington State Department of Labor & Industries, "Refinery Safety & Health and Process Safety Management (PSM)",
https://www.lni.wa.gov/safety-health/safety-topics/industry-topics/refineries-psm
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refineries but there have been different perspectives on whether they would apply in biorefining. A finding in
California led to the conclusion that these protective policies should also apply in biorefining.249 A decision by
the California Occupational Safety and Health Standards Board requested expedited rulemaking to update
regulations to include biofuel refining. This decision came after the fires at Marathon's Martinez Biofuel
Refinery and subsequent petitioning from the USW Local 5. Biodiesel facilities, when compared to conventional
petroleum refineries, have a much higher number of accidents per billion barrels produced.252In particular, the
process hazard analysis (PHA) conducted for biofuel facilities is crucial, as it helps identify and analyze
hazards and improve worker safety in an evolving industry.
Alternative Industries
Utilizing the SOC codes and analysis skills, alternative industries that refinery workers are best suited to
transition to have been identified. Projections for future employment in these alternative industries are
included in Appendix C as tables, using 10-year projections by JobsEQ in for Washington and Pierce, Skagit
and Whatcom counties. These projections include the industry and projected changes in demand for each
position over 10 years, organized by occupation. Some key takeaways from this analysis include:
• Non-Energy Manufacturing and Utilities: Food Manufacturing, Aerospace Manufacturing and the
Utilities sector offer strong employment opportunities for displaced workers. This includes
petrochemical manufacturing, among other related industries. Skills such as collaborative workflow,
emergency response and troubleshooting large industrial operations transfer well to other
manufacturing sectors.
• Energy Sector Manufacturing: Trade workers —including machinists, electricians and mechanics— are
well-suited to leverage employment opportunities across a broad range of manufacturing industries,
while operators have more options in manufacturing housed within the general petroleum and coal
manufacturing sector. For example, construction equipment operators can transition into roadway and
bridge construction, among other heavy construction fields.
• Water Treatment and Utilities: Plant and systems operators may be well-suited to work in waste
treatment and disposal, either in other private manufacturing operations or public utilities systems.
Particularly, experience as a process operator transfers well,253 as operating processing equipment and
monitoring conversion processes can have broad similarities even with differing inputs. Prior
experience working in processing systems can aid in adjusting to new jobs.
Overall, workers with certifiable skills — such as welding, pipefitting and maintenance — have more mobility
than workers such as unit operators when assessing alternative industries. However, unit operators also have
transferable skills such as operations monitoring and problem sensitivity, which are required in other
manufacturing fields as well.
Opportunities in Pierce, Skagit and Whatcom counties
Relevant clean energy workforce analyses such as the Net Zero Northwest (NZNW) Workforce Analysis254 have
indicated that while refineries jobs may be lost as the Pacific Northwest moves toward net-zero emissions,
there will still be overall job gains across the fuels sector. In Washington, NZNW estimates 600 jobs displaced
in "Other Fossil Fuels," which houses conventional petroleum refining, by 2030. However, the study also
252 Hao WU, Igor PEÑARRUBIA, Lin CUI, Jinsong ZHAO. "Process safety management considerations for biofuel production", Front. Eng,
2017, 4(3): 357‒367 https://doi.org/10.15302/J-FEM-2017025
253 Parks, Virginia, and Ian Baran. 2023. “Fossil fuel layoff: The economic and employment effects of
a refinery closure on workers in the Bay Area.” Berkeley, CA: UC Berkeley Labor Center.
https://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/fossil-fuel-layoff/.
254 Clean Energy Transition Institute. Net-Zero Northwest: Technical and Economic Pathways to 2050, Workforce Analysis. April 2024.
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estimates approximately 1,000 emerging jobs each in hydrogen and biofuels production. Combined with job
displacement in natural gas subsectors, the study finds a net 700 position change (+5%) in the fuels sector by
2030. Fuels sector installation and repair occupations are expected to grow by 25% between 2021 and 2030.
The following section further elaborates on the results of the NZNW study.
However, it is important to evaluate the extent to which alternative opportunities exist in the same counties or
in close proximity to refineries, so that workers could access these jobs without facing long commutes or the
necessity of relocation. The JobsEQ demand projections are based on existing conditions, meaning that they
do not include facilities that are planned but not yet operational. Contrastingly, the NZNW study projections
include projections for facilities that are not yet operational. Three tables including the potential demand of the
top three alternative industries are included in Appendix C. The analysis in this study identifies the following
about the opportunities that are currently or expected to be available in these counties, based on JobsEQ
demand projections:
• In Whatcom County, some alternative industries include grain and oilseed milling and other food
manufacturing. Other chemical product and preparation manufacturing is also included. There is some
potential growth in these industries in Whatcom County over the next 10 years. Other industries like
pulp, paper and paperboard mills are potential alternative industries for displaced workers, but are
expected to decline in total employment over the next 10 years.
• In Skagit County, some alternative industries include metalworking machinery manufacturing, ship and
boat building and seafood product preparation and packaging. Commercial fishing in Skagit County
makes up only one part of the maritime sector enabled by the natural deep-water port.
• In Pierce County, some alternative industries include animal food manufacturing, aerospace products
and parts manufacturing and utility system construction. Aerospace manufacturing has a much
stronger presence in Pierce County than in Whatcom or Skagit, due to the location of Boeing
manufacturing in Frederickson. Additionally, other Boeing manufacturing facilities in King County may
be more accessible to displaced workers in Pierce County than in Whatcom or Skagit.
A misalignment between existing opportunities in alternative industries located in these counties may provide
significant obstacles for workers. The demand for displaced occupations may not align with when the workers
are seeking employment, forcing workers to look farther afield for suitable work. Similarly, workers may accept
less well-matched positions to their skillsets to remain in their current areas. Many of the jobs identified in
these alternative industries include opportunities for union represented employment.
Pathways to early retirement
A large percentage of workers in refineries are later in their careers, with a significant number of workers 45
years old or older. While it is unclear how close workers are to retirement, it is apparent that a significant
number of Washington refinery workers are not far from retirement age. For such workers, seeking new
employment that requires retraining or relocation may be particularly challenging. While evaluating the full
extent of this need and suggesting possible approaches for these workers is outside the scope of this study, it
is worth highlighting that the Washington State Workforce Training and Education Coordinating Board has
been given legislative direction to study the feasibility of a transition to retirement program for workers close
to retirement age.255 This study may provide additional guidance related to opportunities to preserve income
and benefits for refinery workers nearing retirement age.
255 HB 1176 (laws of 2023). https://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2023-24/Pdf/Bills/Session%20Laws/House/1176-
S2.SL.pdf?q=20240920132545
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Industry's Top Occupational Data
A table with details about the top 25 occupations within the refining sector, including the SOC code,
occupation title, number of employees and average annual wages is contained in Appendix C. Exits, transfers,
employment growth and total demand refer to a projected two-year demand for the listed occupations. There
is very little expected growth among these occupations, along with few expected exits in the next two years.
The top 25 occupations range in average annual salary from $97,100 to $191,800. This is important to note as
it is significantly above the average annual wages in Pierce, Skagit and Whatcom counties, where the refineries
are housed. Pierce, Skagit and Whatcom Counties have average annual wages of $66,941, $61,668 and
$61,901 respectively.
Breaking this down into the categories used previously, we can look at jobs related to production and facilities
maintenance, administration and management and for engineers and scientists at the refineries. For workers
in production-related positions, annual wages range from approximately $44,000 to $138,000. This range
includes entry level positions such as helpers, in addition to positions like industrial machinery mechanics,
chemical plant and system operators, welders and machinists. Management and administration positions at
refineries have an annual wage ranging from $51,000 to $363,000, including positions from receptionists and
information clerks to chief executives. For engineers and other scientists working at refineries, annual wages
range from approximately $42,000 to $179,000, including technician positions, professional engineers and
occupational health and safety professionals.
Toward Net Zero
The Clean Energy Transition Institute (CETI) published the Net Zero Northwest (NZNW) study 256 in 2023. The
broader study regarding changing regional energy supply and demand expectations as the Northwest
transitions to a net zero economy was coupled with a Workforce State Analysis that investigates the modeled
employment change as a result from this transition. This study investigates the Northwest as a whole and
provides analysis specific to Washington workers. The following data is drawn from the Washington-specific
workforce analysis.
This study classifies relevant petroleum refinery jobs within “Other Fossil Fuels” in their subsector analysis,
with a baseline employment of 6,888 jobs in 2021 in Washington. This is inclusive of positions outside of
direct petroleum refinery operations, including kerosene and coal, and therefore is larger than the value
referenced earlier in the report (2,000) for total employment at Washington refineries. It is important to note
that Other Fossil Fuels made up 47% of fuel sector employment in 2021, with an expected 9% decrease from
2021 to 2030. This total employment includes direct, indirect and induced employment as one sum. Biofuels
encompasses ethanol, bio-gasification and biomass pyrolysis, accounting for 4,283 jobs in 2021. The analysis
expects an additional 980 jobs by 2030 in the biofuels sector. Scenario 4 in Chapter 3 discusses the impacts of
a conversion from conventional refining to biofuel refining.
NZNW finds that the need for clean fuels--like hydrogen and biofuels--is more acute in the Northwest than
other regions of the United States. With a relatively clean grid due to hydroelectric resources, the Northwest
cannot achieve significant emissions reductions from cleaning the electricity grid. That fact, combined with
Washington's aggressive 2030 emission reductions target (45% below 1990 levels), drives the need to
decarbonize fuels earlier than in other regions.
256 Clean Energy Transition Institute. Net-Zero Northwest: Technical and Economic Pathways to 2050, Workforce Analysis. April 2024.
https://www.nznw.org/workforce
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From 2021 to 2030, NZNW estimates a net gain of 700 positions in the fuels sector, with approximately 1,000
jobs emerging in each hydrogen and biofuels and 1,400 jobs displaced in other fuels sectors, along with
approximately 800 jobs displaced in natural gas and natural gas distribution combined.
Therefore, NZNW expects some employment growth through 2030 due to growth in supply chain operations
and construction as facilities are built or retrofitted for biofuels and hydrogen. It is not anticipated that all of
these jobs will remain in the long term, as completed facilities will require fewer construction workers.
Nevertheless, NZNW finds that additional demands for building retrofitting and the expansion of existing
electrical grid systems will continue along with demand for many of the total construction jobs through 2050.
Changes to existing infrastructure and the creation of new infrastructure cannot all be completed
simultaneously, and significant investment into renewables and low carbon building technologies will help
provide consistent demand.
When examining employment by industry, NZNW finds that combined direct and indirect jobs in manufacturing
comprised 2,389 jobs, or 48% of total other fossil fuel subsector jobs in 2021. NZNW projects an expected
decrease to 2,182 jobs by 2030 and a decrease to 1,587 jobs by 2040. However, throughout this time period,
manufacturing remains 48% of total subsector jobs as decreases are seen relatively equally across the
industry categories within the Other Fossil Fuels subsector. In terms of occupations, installation and repair
occupations comprised 58% of fuel sector growth in 2030, while production/manufacturing and administrative
positions declined.
By 2040, NZNW projects that 57% of direct and indirect fuel sector employment will be in Biofuels (8,259
projected total jobs) and 15% in Hydrogen (2,086 projected jobs). An important note is that as vehicle
electrification efforts and other emissions reductions efforts take hold in Washington, demand for biofuels and
other liquid fuels may decrease as overall fuel consumption declines. 257The NZNW modeling takes this into
consideration and finds that while fuels may be used less in on-road vehicles, space heating, and some
industrial processes, growth in biofuels and hydrogen-derived clean fuels would continue in aviation, maritime,
and related sectors that do not have the same electrification options. 258
Retraining of existing workers into clean energy jobs, such as hydrogen and biofuels, can help displaced
conventional fuel workers. However, the timing, magnitude and location of new positions are all complicating
factors.259 In this way, biofuel refining may help transition petroleum refining workers, but may not maintain
employment as demand continues to decline for liquid fuels. It is important to begin developing training
programs and support systems for potentially displaced workers ahead of these anticipated changes. While
biofuel jobs are expected to grow significantly in 2040, this growth is driven largely by shorter-term
construction jobs and then by other supply chain and professional services industries. It is therefore important
to begin developing training programs and support systems for potentially displaced workers ahead of these
anticipated changes.
NZNW notes that the majority of fuel sector employees have a wage at or above $30/hour, but the study did
not examine wage impacts for specific subsectors. As referenced earlier in this report, petroleum refinery
257 Washington Department of Commerce, "Green Electrolytic Hydrogen and Renewable Fuels: Recommendations for Deployment",
January 5, 2024.
258 Washington Department of Commerce, "Green Electrolytic Hydrogen and Renewable Fuels: Recommendations for Deployment",
January 5, 2024.
259 Location is a major barrier for transferring US fossil fuel employment to green jobs
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workers earn higher wages than average, complicating decisions to change fields for employees. Table 63
contains the estimated changes to the fuel sector employment by year and fuel subsector through 2050.
Table 63: Net-Zero Northwest: Washington Fuels Sector Employment (Direct and
Indirect Jobs)
Fuels Subsector 2021 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Biofuels 3,266 3,266 4,006 4,006 8,259 10,871 7,426
Hydrogen 0 142 841 1,217 2,086 3,200 3,631
Other Fossil Fuels
(Including refinery jobs) 4,962 4,890 4,531 3,956 3,295 2,814 2,681
Natural Gas Distribution 2,090 1,959 1,552 968 513 249 157
Natural Gas 332 329 302 259 227 203 195
FUELS TOTAL 10,650 10,585 11,231 10,406 14,380 17,337 14,089
Net Change from 2021 -64 581 -244 3,731 6,687 3,440
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Chapter 5: Refineries in Transition
Key Finding 9. Alternative uses for refinery sites exist, with industrial uses likely to be more feasible than
non-industrial.
Depending on the type and extent of contamination, remediation may be very expensive, time-intensive and
require a variety of remediation methods.
9.1 Depending on the type and extent of contamination, remediation may be very expensive, time-
intensive and require a variety of remediation methods.
9.2 The Department of Ecology oversees remediation efforts, and legal and financial obligations usually
fall on current or previous site owners. The Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA) can also help determine
liable parties or fund cleanup processes.
9.3 There are several potential future uses for refinery sites which present varying levels of economic,
health, and environmental benefits and burdens.
9.4 Some scenarios are more feasible than others, depending on contamination levels and other
factors.
Key Finding 10. Refinery operations contribute to human health and environmental harms, with associated
economic costs, impacting their local economies, environments, neighboring tribal nations and surrounding
communities.
10.1 Proximity to refineries (as with most heavy industrial facilities) is linked to higher risks of cancer,
respiratory issues, cardiovascular diseases, neurological damage, and reproductive health problems.
10.2 Pollutants emitted at these sites include benzene, sulfur dioxides, formaldehyde, and particulate
matter, contributing to smog, ozone formation, and other environmental hazards.
10.3 Many overburdened populations are located near refineries and face disproportionate pollutant
exposure. The Environmental Health Disparities map highlights the increased risk to vulnerable
communities in these areas.
Background
This chapter aims to contextualize the scenarios in Chapter 3 in Washington policy around environmental
remediation, as well as describing anticipated characteristics and costs for cleanup at a refinery site. While
specific analysis of costs and timelines for cleanup would need to be completed on a refinery-by-refinery basis
using site-specific data, that data was not available for this study. The analysis in this chapter provides high-
level guidance regarding the most significant cleanup-related considerations and potential future uses that
may be feasible for Washington refinery sites.
Two scenarios included in this report evaluate the impacts of a refinery closure. The refineries could be
remediated and redeveloped for alternative use or remediated and not redeveloped. This review of
Washington's cleanup accountability policies, such as the Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA) will illustrate
potential impacts to Washington residents of usage transitions and remediation efforts.
Understanding potential future uses of refinery sites is a vital aspect of this report, as it is important to
consider what other opportunities might be available at these locations should any of the refineries close in the
future. Early planning around what the sites may be suited for, as well as understanding the associated
economic and workforce opportunities such future uses could bring, may help refinery communities consider
options and establish local priorities. While detailed analysis of specific uses for individual refinery sites is
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beyond the scope of this report, the following analysis and findings provide context about broad challenges
and opportunities for future uses.
While there are numerous possible future uses for any given refinery site, this study has identified six broad
examples of potential future use, which are described in this section. These future uses encompass a broad
range of possibilities to account for the fact that redevelopment decisions are constrained by permitting and
zoning laws and may be influenced by market demand. Many of the refineries are located adjacent to port
sites, which enables them to ship products in and out of the refineries. Additionally, some sites are located in
scenic regions,260 but the long history of industrial production creates significant challenges for conversion to
commercial or residential property uses. The environmental conditions of refinery sites will likely limit the
options for redevelopment due to extensive contamination. Standards for remediation, current infrastructure
and decarbonization policies impact these development decisions. Conversion to other energy-related uses,
industrial uses or heavy manufacturing are likely contenders for these properties given their location and
infrastructural assets such as access to open water, rail, high rated roads, utility placement and zoning.
This chapter also includes a review of previously remediated refinery sites in the United States. Information
related to the contamination, cleanup costs, liability for cleanup efforts and the timeline of remediation is
included in these case studies. However, public information on some aspects of cleanup is limited, particularly
for privately owned and remediated sites. As such, the information presented has been gathered based on the
best publicly available data.
Cleanup Accountability Policies
Legal and financial considerations for cleanup obligations
The specific extent of contamination at the refinery sites is currently unclear. With operations dating back
close to 70 years, contamination is likely extensive. Refineries are engaged in remediation activities at present,
though these are aimed at mitigation of existing impacts rather than full restoration to environmental
conditions prior to refinery operation. Full remediation is not possible while on-site operations continue, as the
sites continually produce contaminants through normal operations. Previously, refineries in Washington have
faced penalty fines due to excessive pollution, even as recently as 2021.261 Remediation in Washington is a
layered process, with the Department of Ecology overseeing remediation efforts. However, remediation are left
to the landowner at sites with an active liable party and often include contractors conducting the actual
cleanup. Once the extent of the contamination is determined, a remediation area is established and a
feasibility study is conducted to evaluate remediation options. Certain types of pollution can travel a very long
distance, resulting in large areas of remediation. Examples of contaminants that result from refinery
operations include benzene, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, ammonia and
oil residuals.
Model Toxics Control Act
Washington’s Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA) helps protect Washington residents from bearing the cost of
remediation. MTCA funds and directs the investigation, cleanup and prevention of additional pollution at sites
that are contaminated with hazardous substances. MTCA is funded by the Hazardous Substance Tax (HST),
260 These locations may have additional value in potential residential or commercial uses because of waterfront views and access.
261 Ysabelle Kempe, The Bellingham Herald. “A refinery spewed black smoke into this NW community. Now this oil giant will pay.”
Updated July 27, 2021. Accessed July 2, 2024.
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which also provides approximately 40% of the Department of Ecology’s base operating budget.262 The
aggregated HST paid by Washington’s five refineries in calendar year 2023 was $141,366,792 total, with
$137,890,531 paid by volume and $3,476,261 paid by value.263 This is an important distinction because
petroleum products are difficult to measure on a per-barrel basis. A barrel is considered approximately 42
gallons, but the finished products of petroleum are not exclusively liquid. These products include, but are not
limited to, petroleum coke, propane and butane. Products that can be measured on a per barrel basis include,
but are not limited to, gasoline, aviation fuel, diesel, lubricating oil and bunker fuel.264 Products that can be
measured on a per barrel basis are taxed based on volume. Other products are taxed based on their wholesale
value, as they cannot be easily measured on a per barrel basis. Both revenue streams contribute to the HST.
How this tax is collected may be impacted by current product composition at the refineries, which fluctuates
based on feedstock and operational processes.
It is important to emphasize that up to 90% of MTCA funding comes from the petroleum-based HST
revenue.265 Any potential closures or significant changes to the volume of petroleum products produced at
Washington’s refineries could have a significant impact on both MTCA’s operations and the Department of
Ecology’s operations, though some of the pollution and cleanup-related needs that the program and the
agency address would also be reduced. Looking to the future, it is reasonable to expect a decline in petroleum
production as Washington works toward the Climate Commitment Act (CCA) goal of a 95% reduction in
statewide emissions, and this study evaluates scenarios that assume achievement of the net zero emission
requirements.
MTCA operates on a “polluter pays” principle, meaning that the entity deemed responsible for the
contamination is responsible for the cleanup. This includes current site owners or operators, a former owner or
operator who disposed of or released a hazardous substance or an individual who brought or caused a
hazardous substance to be released at the assessed site.266 MTCA also helps fund the cleanup of “orphan
sites”, or sites wherein the potentially liable persons are financially unable or unavailable to fund remediation
at a contaminated site.267 Additionally, oversight under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA)
may make environmental obligations not dischargeable were a corporation to enter Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
This allows for corporate successors to be tasked with remediation, preventing the burden of remediation from
shifting to taxpayers.268 This is important because these programs would increase the likelihood that future
owners of these sites will be responsible for the costs of environmental remediation even if the current owners
were to face bankruptcy. Even in cases where refinery owners may sell a refinery to another party who may
later declare bankruptcy, there are provisions to seek to recover costs from past owners.
However, a scenario in which Washington taxpayers may bear some costs associated with site remediation
include the acquisition of former refinery properties by a local government. MTCA remediation funding is only
available to local governments conducting cleanup actions under an order or decree. Every even-numbered
262 Washington state Department of Ecology, “Hazardous Substance Tax - Washington State Department of Ecology” Accessed August
3, 2024.
263 Information provided by the Department of Revenue by request, received July 29, 2024.
264 Washington state Department of Revenue, “Hazardous substance tax | Washington Department of Revenue” Accessed August 3,
2024.
265 Washington State Department of Ecology, “Model Toxics Control Act Capital Account: Ten-Year Financing Report 2022 (wa.gov)”
January 2023.
266 Department of Ecology State of Washington, “Contaminated Property Considerations: Focus on Real Estate Transactions”, March
2022, Toxics Cleanup Program.
267 Department of Ecology State of Washington, “Colville Post &Poles Site”, February 2015, Toxics Cleanup Program.
268 Ross Levine, UC Berkley, “Environmental Liabilities, Creditors, and Corporate Pollution: Evidence from the Apex Oil Ruling”, Harvard
Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, April 22, 2022.
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year, grant applications are accepted from local governments that fund anywhere from 10-50% of cleanup
costs. These funds are allocated and managed by Ecology through the Model Toxics Control Accounts, which
also helps fund the Toxics Cleanup Program.
A relevant example of this kind of acquisition is the Georgia-Pacific West Bellingham cleanup. The former pulp
and tissue mill was acquired by the Port of Bellingham in 2005, with plans to redevelop the site for non-
industrial uses. Due to the scale and separation of contaminated sites, remediation responsibilities were split
between the Port and the state Department of Ecology. Investigation into the site began in 2009, with
remediation at the northern site completed in 2016. The southern site is still in the cleanup design stage of
remediation.269 A July 2014 publication cited an expected a total remediation construction270 cost of $5.7
million.271 The Port supplied the other funding for cleanup, not provided for through MTCA funding, with their
own revenues. At least half of the costs must be provided for by the Port, as MTCA can only provide half of the
funding.
The City of Bellingham (COB) is another local government engaging with partners to clean up and redevelop
the city’s waterfront. A relevant example site is the Central Waterfront cleanup, which included a former
Chevron bulk fuel storage facility. A July 2019 release estimated construction270 costs associated with
cleaning up the site to be approximately $4 million.272 Per COB, the 54% of funding not covered by MTCA is
provided by COB’s Environmental Remediation Fund. The COB is administering multiple cleanup sites, with a
current expected total cost of $30 million as of August 2024. COB’s Environmental Remediation Fund is
maintained by the solid waste utility tax.273
An important note is that Ecology may pursue polluters to recover costs for remediation. Per MTCA, the state
is required to seek to recover the amounts spent for investigative and remedial actions, agreed orders,
enforcement orders and consent decrees from Pollution Liable Parties (PLPs). These costs include the costs
of direct activities, support costs of direct activities (overhead) and any interest charges for past due
payments. All consent decrees, agreed orders and enforcement orders must include a provision for cost
recovery, wherein any PLPs are typically expected to pay costs as they occur. For Voluntary Cleanup Program
sites, this also includes persons requesting advice and review from Ecology for independently run cleanups. At
sites with an issued order for repayment, the Attorney General’s Office may file an action in court to recover
costs, with noncompliant PLPs liable for up to three times the costs incurred by the state due to
noncompliance and a $25,000 per day civil penalty for noncompliance. 274
Other means of funding remediation activities include the use of pollution liability insurance, pursuance of
historical custom insurance policies or pursuit of liable operators in court. Before 1986, a comprehensive
general liability insurance policy customarily included coverage relevant to pollution-related damages.
However, these comprehensive general liability insurance policies were replaced in 1986 by the commercial
general liability (CGL) policies, which introduced a pollution exclusion. As a result of strengthening
environmental policy in the 1970s and 1980s, insurance carriers began to exclude pollution-related damages
from coverage. As environmental regulations strengthened, insurance carriers saw a flood of pollution claims
269 Washington State Department of Ecology, “Bellingham Bay Cleanup: 2024 Cleanup Update”\
270 Construction costs refer to the costs of building and implementing the chosen remediation method, and does not encompass
administrative or design costs related to site investigations.
271 Washington State Department of Ecology, “Georgia Pacific West Factsheet”
272 Washington State Department of Ecology, “Central Waterfront Factsheet”.
273 City of Bellingham Municipal Codes, “4.76.040 Environmental remediation fund | Bellingham Municipal Code” Current through June
17, 2024.
274 Washington State Department of Ecology, ”Toxics Cleanup Program Policy 550A (wa.gov)”, revised December 2017
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under liability and property policies, which contributed to the changes described above to CGL policies.
Concurrently, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began to pursue corporate polluters to curtail
their pollution and initiate remediation. This resulted in the creation of separate environmental liability policies,
which are used today. These pre-1986 policies are sometimes pursued and called into effect nearly 50 years
later to help support remediation costs.275 However, for this to occur, records of held insurance and
attributable releases while that policy was in effect must be present. This method of recovering costs may be
pursued if a responsible business no longer exists but has both documented releases and insurance.
Managers of industrial sites (such as the Port of Bellingham) may also require tenants to have pollution
liability insurance to help with cleanup costs related to both accidental releases and contamination from
ongoing operations.
Additional taxes related to environmental stewardship include the Petroleum Product Tax (PPT) and the Oil
Spill Tax (OST). The OST refers to the combined administration of the Oil Spill Response Tax and the Oil Spill
Administration Tax. OST is applied at a per barrel rate, and PPT is applied to the wholesale value of petroleum
products. Neither type of tax is collected annually, but rather they are reinstated or suspended as needed to
maintain minimum account balances.
PPT is collected when the Pollution Liability Insurance Program Trust (PLIPT) falls below $15 million in the
previous calendar quarter and is suspended once the account balance exceeds $30 million in the previous
calendar quarter. PPT is currently in effect and has been since January of 2020.276 These funds are
administered by the Pollution Liability Insurance Agency (PLIA) for the pollution liability insurance program and
emergency program. This includes the cleanup releases from active and currently registered heating oil tanks,
with up to $60,000 not covered by other insurances. PLIA also administers a technical assistance program for
qualifying petroleum sites.277
Similarly, the OST is collected when the oil spill response account falls to $8 million and is suspended when
the account reaches a balance of $9 million.278 Generally, the tax is applied when products are delivered to a
marine terminal or bulk oil terminal via vessel or barge, rail tank car or pipeline. The OST was expanded in 2018
to include some crude oil or petroleum products delivered via pipeline. The oil spill administration tax pays for
work related to oil spill prevention, response and habitat restoration, while the oil spill response tax pays for oil
spills with cleanup costs exceeding $50,000. Responsible parties for spilled oil279 (or other hazardous
substances) into state waters may be required to pay for:
1) A resource damage assessment.
2) Reimbursement of the state’s expenses to respond, assess and investigate the incident.
3) A penalty for violation of the state’s law or rule.
275 EnviroForensics, “How to manage environmental risk through historical and modern insurance agreements (enviroforensics.com)”,
October 15 2024.
276 Washington state Department of Revenue, “Oil spill response tax and oil spill administration tax | Washington Department of
Revenue” Accessed August 3, 2024.; Washington DOR Tax Reference Manual, “Oil Spill Tax”, August 2023.
277 Pollution Liability Insurance Agency, “About PLIA - The Pollution Liability Insurance Agency (wa.gov)”
278 Washington state Department of Revenue, “Petroleum products tax | Washington Department of Revenue” Accessed August 3,
2024.; Washington DOR Tax Reference Manual, “Oil Spill Tax”, August 2023. Petroleum Products Tax - Tax Reference Manual (wa.gov)
279 Spill Prevention, Preparedness, and Response Program, “Focus on: State Costs for Spills", Washington State Department of Ecology,
Revised May 2020, Publication 08-08-006
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Payment for oil spill damages go into the state's Coastal Protection Fund. These funds can only be used for
environmental restoration projects, oil spill studies and habitat mapping systems. However, the responsible
party or spiller may also propose restoration projects in place of monetary damages for resource damage
assessments. A large spill could cost the state $10.8 billion in costs and 165,000 jobs based on 2006
numbers. 280 For large oil spills that cause great resource injuries, federal trustee agencies will conduct natural
resource damage assessments, under the authority of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990. There is no limit of liability
for the costs of spilled oil. Vessels and facilities that transport or handle hazardous materials are required to
demonstrate different levels of financial responsibility based on the worst-case spill or total capacity.281 Of the
spills in Washington, many are related to sunken or otherwise damaged marine vessels. Since 2020, there have
been three pipeline-related releases. Since 2014, there have been four railway-related releases, due to either
damaged transport cars or derailment.
The size of parent entities of Washington’s refineries may make it unlikely that the sites will become orphan
sites after a potential refinery closures. The history of industrial usage at each site also makes cleanup to
industrial standards the most probable pathway for these sites. The likely existing contaminants from
industrial operations take significant amounts of time to clean up to residential standards, in addition to
needed changes to local zoning. MTCA standards are based on exposure-based cancer risk, exposure-induced
illness and impacts on nearby plants and animals. Industrial zones, compared to commercial and residential
zones, have fewer exposure pathways. As a result, the minimum acceptable risk and cleanup standards for
sites that will be used for industrial purposes after remediation are not as stringent as those that will be used
for residential purposes, which have more exposure pathways. Industrial operations have policies to prevent
exposures, such as the following:
• Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)
• Restricted areas, through physical controls and barriers
• Required safety trainings for employees
These policies change the minimum acceptable risk, and therefore cleanup standards, for an industrial area as
opposed to a residential area. It is also possible to clean up contaminated sites to different standards, such as
for residential use. Residential standards are much higher than industrial stands, as there are more pathways
to exposure. Some pathways to exposure in residential areas 282 that are less likely in industrial areas include:
• Ingestion via home gardens or contact with soil
• Recreation activities, such as swimming, fishing or playground usage
• Exposure to contaminants without PPE or information about risks
However, this does not eliminate the possibility of the sites being bought by a public agency or local
government or being redeveloped for commercial or residential use. While unlikely, there is a precedent in
some areas, including the Bellingham Waterfront Cleanup, of industrial areas being redeveloped after cleanup
into commercial office spaces, new housing developments or recreational areas.
Potential Future Uses
The following sections discusses six potential future use categories that may be options in the case of refinery
closure, based on assessing state and local factors such as contamination and cleanup responsibilities,
280 Spill Prevention, Preparedness, and Response Program, “Spill Prevention, Preparedness, and Response Program", Washington State
Department of Ecology.
281 Regulations & Permits, “Financial responsibility for oil spills”, Washington State Department of Ecology.
282 Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry “Element 3: Exposure Points”, Updated April 14, 2022.
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zoning, and related regional geographic and economic factors. This study assesses broad categories of
potential future uses of refinery sites, and considerations related to co-benefits that may be associated with
these different types of future use. The broad categories of potential future use evaluated in this study are:
• Energy industrial
• Non-energy industrial
• Industrial symbiosis
• Heavy manufacturing
• Return to tribal ownership
• Residential or commercial uses
Each potential future use is evaluated in relation to specific topics of interest. This can be done at a high level
only, as quantifiable impacts related to potential future uses can only be assessed in the context of particulate
proposed projects and their specifications, such as specific details regarding facility size, fuel types and
amounts, energy demand and source, technology selection, air and water pollution mitigation processes, and
others.
It is important to note that specific potential future uses should be carefully assessed to ensure they do not
exacerbate impacts on overburdened communities that flow from past siting decisions of refineries and other
industrial facilities. Particular consideration will also be needed in relation to tribal lands and treaty rights.
Table 64: Considerations for each scenario.
Consideration Scenario notes
All categories of potential future use may be expected to lead to reduced GHG
emissions. This is true even for heavy manufacturing and industrial uses, due to
assumptions that new facilities will be designed in ways that plan for low-carbon and
Greenhouse gas emissions efficient processes. Any new facilities with higher (over 25,000MT/yr CO2e) would be
regulated under the Climate Commitment Act and would need to comply with planned
reductions (it is possible though not certain that these facilities may be categorized as
new EITEs). Return to tribal ownership may have very low GHG emissions.
Alternative future uses would need to be carefully evaluated to assess local pollution
and environmental health impacts on a case by case basis. Biomass based feedstocks
Local pollution and
can still emit harmful air pollutants, noise and dust pollution, and fire and safety risks
likely exist that would need to be addressed for storage and handling. All manufacturing
environmental health
processes have their own pollution and environmental health impacts that would need
to be analyzed.
As Washington's refineries are significant employers and pay higher than average
wages in the counties where they are located, employment benefits may decrease in the
Direct and indirect employment benefits potential future use scenarios. Heavy manufacturing is likely to have higher
employment benefits in general. Return to tribal ownership may have the lowest direct
employment benefits for work after remediation.
Refineries pay high levels of state and local taxes at present, which potential future
Estimated tax impacts
uses of these sites may not equal, though this depends on specific proposals.
Economic costs for Washington residents will depend on specific future uses, the
Potential costs to Washington residents
number and quality of jobs proposed, and whether these uses require new grants or
incentives to direct facilities to locate in Piece, Skagit and Whatcom counties.
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Consideration Scenario notes
Additionally, remediation costs related to new uses may impact Washington residents if
the land is purchased by a local governmental entity.
Energy industrial, non-energy industrial operations are increasing in Washington, though
they face limitations including on feedstocks and electricity capacity. Heavy
manufacturing operations have declined in recent years, though Washington has
Feasibility based on relevant market established statutory targets to double manufacturing jobs in the state. The number of
trends acres of land returned to tribal ownership is low in Washington and across the country
although there is increased interest in this approach, especially where it aligns with
climate resilience goals and funding. Commercial or residential uses may be of interest,
as seen through the redevelopment projects like the Bellingham Waterfront Cleanup.
Energy Industrial
This report defines an energy industrial facility as a facility that produces or stores electrical energy. Various
types of energy industry could fall into this category, including processing raw methane into renewable natural
gas, biomass energy production, green electrolytic or renewable hydrogen production, renewable electricity
production including utility-scale wind, solar and geothermal and related categories. Numerous examples of
energy industrial facilities exist in Washington already, including natural gas and biomass plants and energy
storage facilities.
Many considerations would impact the selection of certain kinds of energy industrial use over others. One
principal consideration is compliance with state greenhouse gas limits and laws, including the Climate
Commitment Act. New energy industrial projects would need to evaluate anticipated GHG emissions to
understand how their operations could be incorporated under the Climate Commitment Act’s regulations
regarding major sources of emissions, as well as the state’s GHG limits as discussed previously. Additionally,
the Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA) requires moving to 100% clean electricity by 2045. Much of
Washington’s electrical grid is already renewable due to the abundance of hydroelectric power in the state,
which accounts for approximately 60% of total annual electricity generation in Washington. Any future
development of energy production facilities must be in line with state and federal climate and clean energy
regulations.
Other considerations include proximity to feedstocks and quality of renewable energy generating potential.
Certain types of energy industrial use, such as renewable natural gas or bioenergy projects, are highly
dependent on available feedstock and infrastructure at the site or in close enough proximity to transport
feedstocks. Bioenergy feedstocks do not need to be available in the immediate vicinity, but proximity to
feedstocks will reduce costs and improve reliability, meaning that these types of energy industrial
opportunities will need to evaluate how to source reasonably proximate biomass materials. Woody biomass
residues and agricultural residues are available in Washington and could be leveraged for biofuel production.
Infrastructure is also important; previously closed pulp and paper mills may have existing infrastructure, such
as biomass boilers, which make them particularly well suited to conversion to this type of energy industrial
use. Clean energy production projects will require strong wind and solar potential to be commercially viable;
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wind and solar resources are less abundant on shore in western Washington, which could limit these
opportunities.283
Additionally, siting and permitting will be a consideration for any kind of new energy industrial use. Washington
is currently working to help expedite siting and permitting processes for certain types of clean energy projects,
specifically for wind, solar and green electrolytic and renewable hydrogen. The Washington State Department
of Ecology is currently working to generate Programmatic Environmental Impact Statements (PEISs) on the
potential impacts and mitigation for clean energy facilities, which could help to facilitate the siting, and
permitting of these specific kinds of clean energy facilities.284
Conversion from petroleum refining to either biorefineries or green hydrogen facilities could reduce the GHG
emissions of the refinery sites. A 2023 RMI report285 discussed the ways in which smaller facilities286 (such as
the Tacoma refinery) are potentially more suited to conversion. The smaller capacity is more closely matched
to the availability of feedstocks for biorefining, helping to minimize capital expenditures needed for production
and maximizing use of current infrastructure. The report estimated a potential for between 1,000 to 3,000
barrels of SAF per day at the Par Pacific/U.S. Oil Tacoma Refinery. Biomass feedstocks involved in biofuel
production may offset the CO2 produced when biofuels are burned, leading to a net neutral change in GHG
emissions.287 In part, this is because biomass materials sequester CO2 as they grow, which may offset the CO2
emissions from producing or burning biofuels, although this is dependent on how lifecycle emissions are
calculated.288 Chapter 3 of this report touches on feedstock availability and the demand for biofuels in
Washington. An example of a green electrolytic hydrogen project in Washington is Douglas County Public
Utility District’s green hydrogen facility. The facility is set to begin producing hydrogen in late 2024 and will
help provide flexibility to its adjacent Wells Hydroelectric Project through storage and use of hydrogen to
generate electricity in periods of high demand, in addition to providing publicly accessible light, medium and
heavy-duty hydrogen vehicle fueling.289 The PUD's ownership of low-cost hydroelectric power generation
resources helps make this project cost-effective.
Research indicates that clean energy facilities of a variety of types can drive economic development. One
recent example is the Net-Zero Northwest290 (NZNW) Workforce Analysis and Energy Pathways Analysis,
conducted by the Clean Energy Transition Institute (CETI). This analysis evaluated various sectors of the
energy economy and their prospects as the Northwest moves toward a net-zero economy and found that many
are poised to grow and could result in higher employment, driven by construction and maintenance of
infrastructure investments at these facilities. However, absent specific project proposals, it is unclear if the
operational needs of an energy industrial facility will ultimately increase or decrease compared to refinery
operations. By 2030, NZNW expects an additional 4,176 jobs in electricity distribution, an additional 2,619 jobs
in transmission, an additional 587 jobs in solar, and an additional 1,055 jobs in land-based wind. After 2035,
NZNW Energy Pathways modeling assumes that new gas generating capacity will use biomass methane gas,
283 Washington State Department of Natural Resources, "Clean Energy", Clean Energy | WA - DNR
284 Department of Ecology State of Washington, “Focus on: Clean Energy Programmatic Environmental Impact Statements”, September
2023, Shorelands & Environmental Assistance Program. Clean Energy Programmatic Environmental Impact Statements (wa.gov)
285 Veysey, Drew, Meghan Peltier, and Joseph Fallurin, Rocky Mountain Institute, “Five Ways US Oil Refineries Can Reduce Emissions
Today”, June 5, 2023. Five Ways US Oil Refineries Can Reduce Emissions Today - RMI
286 The RMI report "Oil Refining Emissions Cut Points" defined a small facility as a refinery with 160,000 tons CO equivalent per year,
2
and specifically utilizes the Par Pacific/U.S. Oil Tacoma Refinery as an example of a small facility in their report.
287 U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Biofuels explained”, Updated April 13, 2022.
288 U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Biomass explained”, Updated April 17, 2022. Biomass and the environment - U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA)
289 HydroReview, “Douglas PUD purchases second electrolyzer for hydrogen project near Wells hydropower”, February 21, 2023.
290 Clean Energy Transition Institute, "Net-Zero Northwest", Home | Net-Zero Northwest (nznw.org)
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which may offer transition points for current natural gas generation workers. These projections may be
impermanent, as some of the job growth can be attributed to infrastructure upgrades. Both hydropower and
offshore wind jobs peak in 2030 due to assumptions about the timing of upgrades and development. Average
annual wages across the electric power generation, transmission and distribution in Washington ranged from
$69,000 to $143,000 as of Q1 2024 per Chmura.291 As Washington’s demand for affordable, reliable clean
electricity grows, new clean energy generation or co-production of alternative fuels and green hydrogen may be
as an opportunity to anticipate future need while meeting climate action goals.
New energy industrial facilities would likely be able to access a variety of incentives from the Inflation
Reduction Act (IRA) aimed to help promote emissions reductions and cleaner products. The RMI report
includes a breakdown of IRA incentives aimed to promote emissions reductions, in addition to the Alternative
Fuels Data Center IRA summary table.292 A variety of tax credits, grants and financing opportunities with the
IRA can help make energy facilities economically viable. It is unclear how a shift from refining to energy
generation could impact local tax revenues, but it is understood that any changes to current infrastructure
could have a great impact on collected property tax. The value of equipment and infrastructure used in energy
generation could be assessed at a significantly different value, which could contribute to changing levy rates
and collected revenue for the local district. For example, levy rates in Anacortes tax code area 900 are notably
lower at $7.52 per thousand as opposed to Mount Vernon tax code area 930 at $10.21 per thousand.
Conversations with the Skagit County Assessor’s office attributed this in part due to the presence of refineries
in Anacortes, because of their higher property value.
State incentives to site new energy industrial facilities in certain regions may also help to attract such
operations to particular areas. For example, policies are under consideration in Washington to incentivize new
alternative jet fuel production in the state with a focus on sites in economically depressed regions. There are
no current state incentives in place to encourage the siting of new energy industrial facilities in refinery
communities in Washington, although these could be considered. Federally, several IRA and other clean energy
funding programs specifically seek to direct funding to “Energy Communities,” such as areas where closed
coal mines and coal-fired energy facilities are located, for the purpose of economic revitalization through new
clean energy projects.293 Other potential tools for focusing clean energy investments could include use of the
Environmental Health Disparities map (EHD). The map identifies communities overburdened by environmental
health risks and burdens, and which some policies such as the Climate Commitment Act use to target at least
35% of clean energy and climate resilience grants to overburdened communities and at least 10% for projects
with tribal support. It is important to note that it should not be assumed that communities will support siting
and permitting of such projects in their communities and that siting and permitting processes should include
meaningful community engagement to understand concerns and consider equitable distribution of benefits
and burdens.294
Nonenergy Industrial
For the purposes of this report, nonenergy industrial encompass all industrial uses that are not energy- or
heavy manufacturing-related. Many nonenergy industrial facilities focus on producing and distributing
consumer goods. Examples include warehouses, distribution centers, ports, terminals and light
291 JobsEQ, Industry Snapshots. Labor Market Analytics | JobsEQ by Chmura Economics & Analytics
292 Alternative Fuels Data Center, "Laws & Incentives: Inflation Reduction Act of 2022", Alternative Fuels Data Center: Inflation Reduction
Act of 2022 (energy.gov)
293 Interagency Working Group on Coal & Power Plant communities & Economic Revitalization, "Energy Community Tax Credit Bonus",
294 This guidance regarding meaningful community engagement applies equally to all potential future uses discussed in this chapter.
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manufacturing295 facilities. While heavy manufacturing primarily produces products intended for business and
industrial use, light manufacturing produces consumer goods. Examples of light manufacturing facilities
include those that produce textile and electronic products for direct consumption. Heavy manufacturing
focuses on producing goods that are used in producing other products, such as raw materials, machinery and
equipment. Light manufacturing is sometimes smaller in scale than heavy manufacturing.
The location of Washington’s refineries on or near bodies of water could potentially offer benefits in storage
and distribution of goods received by ship or support processing of materials for export by ship. However, any
alternative usages would require significant changes to current facilities, with the continued understanding
that this is constrained by permitting, zoning and potential capital expenditures necessary to transform the
current sites. Refineries are sometimes converted to storage terminals, utilizing existing infrastructure and
helping to support distribution networks to and from operating refineries. Overall, a nonenergy industrial use of
current refinery sites could reduce scope one emissions compared to current operations. However, it would be
important to consider the energy use of any new operations, as well as the associated upstream or
downstream (scope three) emissions. For example, conventional shipping currently relies on use of high-GHG
bunker fuel, and any non-energy industrial reliant on shipping would need to address conversion to cleaner
fuels in order to assume overall global emissions would be reduced in this type of future site use. Therefore,
the GHG impacts of this type of potential future use - as with others discussed in this chapter - will vary
depending on project-specific decisions and data for proposed projects.
Additionally, the existing wastewater treatment plants at refinery sites could potentially be repurposed to
assist in local utility management and waste management. However, this would require significant local
investigation and viability assessments around connecting these systems and the potential improvements to
capacity. Similarly, refineries already employ workers to manage wastewater treatment systems, which could
lead to some job retention upon repurposing the existing treatment plants for public utilities use.
Economic considerations for non-energy industrial uses
The impact on employment will largely depend on the type of non-energy industrial facility developed.
However, the refineries are some of the largest employers in Skagit and Whatcom counties with wages
significantly above average, and it is likely that total direct employment would decrease in the long-term once
additional jobs from construction and renovations at the redeveloped site are no longer needed. Changes to
site infrastructure have the potential to greatly affect property value, which can also reduce local tax revenue.
Current production-related infrastructure at the refineries adds significant value to the properties, in addition to
the marine and rail terminals that service the sites, which correspond to property taxes. The removal of refining
equipment and replacement with other industrial infrastructure (like a canning facility, for example), could
trigger significant changes to collected property tax revenue. This is because the equipment and infrastructure
on site contribute to the assessed value of a property. It is not possible without site-specific equipment
evaluations to say if property value would be maintained. Additionally, other industries may not match the
average annual wages of $185,973 per worker. For example, cut and sew apparel manufacturing, which is
categorized as light manufacturing, has an average annual wage per worker of $64,342 in Washington, and
general warehousing and storage has an average annual wage per worker of $53,464.296 Though difficult to
predict, non-energy industrial uses are likely to have lower annual wages and tax revenues than the current
petroleum refining operations.
295 "Light manufacturing" and "heavy manufacturing" are both considered to be synonymous with "light industry" and "heavy industry",
and may be used interchangeably within this report.
296 JobsEQ, Industry Snapshots. Labor Market Analytics | JobsEQ by Chmura Economics & Analytics
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Industrial Symbiosis
Industrial symbiosis is a broad term referring to industrial operations that involve collaborations and
exchanges between multiple industries, allowing for a circular transformation of materials through industrial
processes. Through an exchange of resources and energy, interdependent networks are created between
industries, allowing for the excess or waste materials from one industry to be used in the production process
of another industry.297 This process may help reduce consumption of resources production of waste as well as
address environmental challenges related to energy inefficiencies. An example of industrial symbiosis is co-
location, where intermediate goods producers are located near one another, allowing for lower transportation
costs and less waste.
The use of paper mill byproducts to generate electricity and heat in a biomass-based energy plant is an
example of industrial symbiosis. A local example is the BP Cherry Point Refinery, which has expanded their
facilities to introduce co-processing, allowing it to produce lower carbon intensity renewable diesel.298 This co-
processing expanded biofuel production in Washington, as conventional crude oil and biomass-based
feedstocks are used299 to produce a blended fuel. By transitioning the existing processing unit to co-
processing, the facility shifted to begin producing renewable diesel in addition to conventional diesel. Initially,
the feedstock used in co-processing used beef tallow from slaughterhouses and rendering facilities, which is
considered a waste product in the meat industry. As co-processing can involve the use of another industry's
waste product in the production of a product in a separate industry, it is an example of industrial symbiosis.
Similarly, the extracted sulfur and calcined petroleum coke at the Cherry Point Refinery as byproducts are
feedstocks for other industries. Sulfur is commonly used for fertilizer and pesticide productions.300 Calcined
petroleum coke is an important input to industrial processes such as aluminum smelting, fertilizer production
and brick and glass manufacturing.301 As such, some current or potential future co-processing operations at
existing refineries overlap with this concept.
Industrial symbiosis, by its very nature, is designed to reduce GHG emissions and/or other environmental
impacts associated with manufacturing or production processes. Industrial symbiosis can help eliminate
transportation costs of inputs to facilities, also helping reduce the emissions associated with production.
However, that is dependent upon the location of the facilities that utilize byproducts, as industrial symbiosis
does not require co-location. When compared to traditional manufacturing practices, it often decreases GHG
emissions. However, this is highly dependent on intentional design and interconnected efforts of production
facilities to minimize waste within the production process and maximize mutual benefits.
While the benefits of industrial symbiosis or a circular process are appealing, it is often misunderstood by the
general public. This type of arrangement can have undeniable environmental and economic advantages due to
its enhanced efficiencies, but these are not absolute and at best reduce impacts without completely
eliminating them. Depending on the processes, environmental risks may be reduced, unchanged, or increased.
Each circumstance is unique and requires an independent assessment to understand what benefits or risks
may apply. All industrial activities come with pollution and GHG emissions to varying degrees of severity.
297 Laura Sokka, Suvi Pakarinen, Matti Melanen,”Industrial symbiosis contributing to more sustainable energy use – an example from
the forest industry in Kymenlaakso, Finland”, Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 19, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 285-293, ISSN 0959-6526.
298 Advanced Biofuels USA, “BP Completes Renewable Diesel Coprocessing Expansion Project in Washington”, November 29, 2022.
299 Examples of biomass-based feedstocks include food waste, beef tallow, canola oil, soybean oil, and used cooking oil among others.
300 National Pesticide Information Center, "Sulfur: General Fact Sheet"
301 National Association of Manufacturers, "Petroleum Coke: Essential to Manufacturing", American Petroleum Institute.
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Economic considerations for industrial symbiosis
Co-processing could increase employment in an area if existing facilities are expanded. Construction or
alterations to existing infrastructure may drive employment gains for a time, before returning to a previous or
slightly higher than previous level upon completion. It is difficult to speak strongly to the impacts of industrial
symbiosis on employment, as associated improvements may also improve efficiencies, reducing the number
of employees needed. The local production of materials may impact jobs related to the transportation of
materials. Some positions may be eliminated as more environmentally friendly production methods are
utilized, but these new methods may also create positions. For example, in the Tanzanian sugar sector
industrial symbiosis led to overall job growth, primarily through added positions related to reducing
inefficiencies.302 Additionally, potential impacts to local tax revenues are highly dependent on the type of
production and infrastructure on site. Echoing the previous examples, additional infrastructure could drive
increase assessed property value and local property tax revenue. Additionally, manufacturing-related tax
collections (such as Business & Occupation taxes), may change based on production changes. Washington
has provided grants to support industrial symbiosis in the past, and there are proposals under consideration
that could provide greater levels of policy and funding support that might help advance these types of use. 303
Heavy Manufacturing
Heavy manufacturing supplies large industrial products and involves the use of heavy machinery and complex
industrial processes. Heavy manufacturing companies often sell their products to large purchasers, which use
them to create other products. Examples of heavy manufacturing include the production of machinery used in
other manufacturing or material inputs used by light manufacturing to create a final product, such as
production of steel or chemicals that may be used to generate other products. Comparatively, light industry
more often sells directly to consumers through retailers with goods in their final form.304 Heavy manufacturing
companies are often large, as they require a great deal of costly capital to operate including heavy equipment,
large facilities and complex infrastructure. Examples of heavy manufacturing industries include oil and gas,
aerospace, mining and chemical production.
Many of these manufacturing types are limited by availability of inputs and local zoning restrictions. Each of
them has complex infrastructure requirements and involve specialized training for operators. Heavy
manufacturing is also unlikely to significantly decrease local pollution effects or emissions. Heavy
manufacturing operations can be highly energy-intensive and are conventionally dependent on fossil fuels.
Even facilities that can operate primarily on electricity rather than fuels like natural gas face challenges in
securing sufficient levels of reliable and low-cost electricity, which can limit the opportunities for heavy
manufacturing. For example, the Alcoa aluminum smelter that operated for over 50 years in Ferndale closed
largely due to inability to secure sufficient levels of clean electricity at prices that allowed the operation to
continue.305 However, there are emerging technologies and opportunities to establish low carbon heavy
manufacturing facilities if appropriate energy inputs can be secured reliably and affordably. Electric heaters
used to generate steam, or replacement of natural gas with green electrolytic hydrogen or other alternative
fuels to generate heat are expected to become more accessible over the coming years. Federal grants
supporting the decarbonization of manufacturing and heavy industry may help to increase awareness of these
302 Rweyendela, Amani George, and Mwegoha, William John, "Employment effects of industrial symbiosis in the Tanzanian sugar
sector", International Labor Organization, August 2023.
303 Commerce funds four more projects seeking to repurpose industrial and agricultural waste
304 For example, heavy manufacturing may produce the stainless steel plates a silverware factory then use to produce cutlery. The
stainless steel plates are used to create another good, which is then sold to consumers either directly or through a retailer.
305 Shirley, Julie, Mittendorf, Robert, and Belcher, Jack, "Idled Whatcom County Intalco smelter closure announced by Alcoa", Bellingham
Herald, March 16, 2023.
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approaches and reduce the costs of using lower carbon fuels and infrastructure, including in chemical
manufacturing, cement and iron and steel production.306 New facility development presents an opportunity to
invest in more sustainable fuels and technology.
Economic considerations for heavy manufacturing
The establishment of new heavy manufacturing operations at a closed refinery site would be expected to
contribute both short-term and longer-term economic benefits, depending on the specifics of a facility. In an oil
refining to heavy manufacturing conversion scenario, local tax revenue is likely to decrease in the short-term
as infrastructure is renovated and while siting and permitting processes take place. Alternative sectors in
heavy manufacturing would require adjustments to existing permits or securing new ones, and this process
could take anywhere from a few years to a decade as the review and public comment process for development
takes place.
The construction of new manufacturing facilities would be expected to lead to the creation of numerous
temporary construction jobs. In terms of ongoing operations, a smaller or larger stable base of employees
compared to current refinery operations may emerge, depending on the scale of operations. The refineries
have a range of permanent employees from approximately 200 employees to over 900. As such, it would
depend on the type and scale of manufacturing to assess the impact to employment. For example, the majority
of chemical manufacturing facilities are owned and operated by small and medium enterprises that employ
less than 500 people.307 This may be greater or fewer than the number of existing positions at refinery sites.
Facilities such as the Alcoa aluminum facility in Ferndale, now closed, supported approximately 700 local
manufacturing jobs for over 50 years. Heavy manufacturing is the closest of the assessed options to
“business as usual” with refinery operations, with specific effects highly dependent on local zoning and
infrastructure.
Return to Tribal Ownership
Within this alternative use, the land currently used for petroleum refining is returned to local tribes. There are a
variety of ways in which this could happen after a refinery closure. Some relevant pathways include the
purchasing, gifting, or relinquishment of land from current owners to tribal governments. Land return,
rematriation,308 and conservation work led by indigenous peoples supports biodiversity and sustainable land
management. Additionally, after restoration the land can support the revitalization of traditional practices and
help protect traditional values. As described in Chapter 1, native communities have carried a disproportionate
burden of pollution from the refineries and other nearby industrial activities. The return of these lands to tribal
ownership represents an opportunity to help alleviate that burden and help support traditional practices.
Within this return to tribal ownership, cleanup liability is a primary concern. Within any of the pathways to tribal
ownership referenced above, designation of remediation responsibility is possible within the contractual
processes related to ownership transfers. For example, if a tribe were to purchase the land after closure, the
terms of sale may require remediation from the previous owners, or share responsibility for cleanup costs.
After the closure of the refineries, a thorough environmental site assessment before a transfer of titles can
help establish cleanup liability. As described in other sections of this chapter, the remediation process is
lengthy, often spanning decades from investigations to construction and monitoring. However, with diligent
care, contaminated areas can be restored. The cleanup of a BP refinery in Casper, Wyoming is an example
306 Industrial Efficiency and Decarbonization Funding Opportunity Announcement
307 Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency, "Chemical Sector Profile", March 2022.
308 Rematriation refers to the rebuilding of traditional indigenous stewardship and caretaking practices to ancestral places.
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where formerly contaminated land was remediated to a standard that allowed human usage, rather than
relying on restricted access to limit exposure pathways.
This option presents a pathway in which the Treaty tribes are able to hunt, fish, and gather on land that has
been restricted due to contamination in the future. Similarly, the disproportionate burden of industrial pollution
experienced by tribal members is lowered in this use case, as opposed to other industrial developments. This
is also discussed within Scenario 8 contained in Chapter 3. In addition to the considerations above, a return to
tribal ownership could also include an industrial or manufacturing enterprise, such as the other alternative
uses described in this section.
Commercial or Residential Usages
Refinery sites have been developed for mixed commercial or residential use in the past, as described in the
case studies later in this chapter. The BP Casper refinery was remediated to mixed use, creating recreational
use areas and wildlife habitat. The Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery is currently being remediated and
redeveloped for warehousing and other commercial uses. This usage would require cleanup of contamination
to more stringent standards than other industrial uses, as more exposure pathways exist in commercial and
residential uses than industrial uses. Some industrial site cleanups, like the Bellingham Waterfront Cleanup,
have focused on developing mixed-use residential and commercial areas. Site-specific assessments of
contamination and remediation costs would be required to assess the viability of this option. This option is
potentially limited by the extent of contamination, and the potential expense of remediating to residential
standards.
Site Remediation
This section discusses the potential methods that may be utilized to remediate, or clean up, the refinery sites
after a potential closure. These methods are summarized to be an overview of the potential methods involved
in remediation, broken into six groupings. These groupings include extraction-based methods, barrier and
capping methods, "greener" cleanup methods, "in situ" remediation methods and heat-based methods.
This summary is limited to methods referenced in other refinery site cleanups or other applicable examples.
Each of these methods are widely considered safe when designed and implemented with the appropriate level
of care. Additionally, many of them minimize potential negative impacts to nearby residents. As part of the
remediation process, the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of these methods at a site is assessed. These
methods balance cost-effectiveness and protection of both human health and the environment. Some
methods require long-term monitoring, sometimes for decades, to ensure that contamination is still contained.
Other methods may not reduce contamination to levels that allow unlimited use and unrestricted exposure,
requiring a five-year review of contamination levels.
When investigating a site for cleanup, responsible parties will coordinate with the appropriate experts to
assess a variety of remediation plans, using a combination of the methods. The chosen remediation plan is
intended to balance cost effectiveness with the timely removal or containment of contaminants. The
investigation stage of a site cleanup can take much longer than the initial construction of an implemented
cleanup, which must then be monitored for effectiveness.
To better contextualize this information, information about several previously closed refinery sites and their
remediation efforts has been collected into case studies. Where available, these case studies provide cost
information, methods used in cleanup and the timeline of remediation.
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Extraction based methods
Extraction based methods involve pulling contaminated soil or water from the ground and treating the material
at the surface. Solidification and stabilization are included in this section as they are often used in tandem with
extraction methods. Some of these treatments are components used in tandem or as part of other remediation
methods, such as granular activated carbon (GAC), which is used in pump and treat and "in situ" carbon
amendments.Error! Bookmark not defined. The amount of time for these treatments to be effective varies g
reatly depending on the extent of contamination and mobility of contaminants.
Table 65: Extraction Based Remediation Methods
Method Description
Contaminated materials are excavated for “ex situ” treatment or disposal in a landfill. Excavated areas are
Excavation 309 typically backfilled with clean or treated soil. This method is used in all of the examples referenced in this
report. Excavation can take days to years.
Contaminated groundwater is pumped to an aboveground treatment system, which may employ multiple
Pump and treat 310 cleanup methods based on contaminants. Granular activated carbon, air stripping and bioreactors are often
used in tandem with this method. The process can take a few years to several decades to complete.
Contaminated water or air is moved through the GAC, and contaminants stick to the surface and are
Granular Activated removed. GAC treatment is commonly used as a treatment step in other treatment methods and is the most
Carbon (GAC) 311 common approach to treating contaminated groundwater and soil vapor. It can be used to sorb a wide range
of contaminants. The process can take several months to years.
Air is moved through contaminated water to help evaporate VOCs, and then chemical vapors are collected.
Air stripping 312 This method is commonly used as part of the pump and treat cleanup method. The process can take several
months to years.
Soil Vapor These methods are often used together. Air sparging involves drilling injection wells into groundwater-
Extraction (SVE) soaked soil and using an air compressor to pump air underground, allowing air bubbles to carry contaminant
and Air Sparging vapors through the groundwater and into the soil. SVE involves drilling extraction wells and creating a
313 vacuum that pulls air and vapors to the surface for treatment. This process often takes several years.
Solidification binds contaminants into a solid block of less permeable material using cement, asphalt or clay
to prevent movement. Stabilization utilizes chemical reactions that reduce the chances of contaminants
Solidification and leaching into the environment. These mixtures can be covered with a cap or removed and used to backfill
Stabilization314 excavated areas or disposed of in a landfill. These methods are often used in tandem with capping or
excavation. This process can take weeks or months and is a relatively quick and low-cost way to prevent
exposures.
Barriers and Capping
Capping involves placing a cover over contaminated materials such as landfill waste or contaminated soil.
This method is used to isolate contaminants and prevent their spread due to wind, rainfall or runoff and limit
309 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Excavation of Contaminated Waste,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
310 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Pump and Treat,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up Information Web
Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024,.
311 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Granulated Activated Carbon Treatment,” Contaminated Site
Clean-Up Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
312 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Air Stripping,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up Information Web Site,
EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
313 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Soil Vapor Extraction and Air Sparging,” Contaminated Site Clean-
Up Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
314 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Solidification and Stabilization,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
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potential exposures. Barriers serve a similar purpose. They are placed to control the spread of contaminants,
by either blocking the flow or trapping contaminants. These methods are monitored for effectiveness and may
be assessed in the aftermath of extreme weather events or natural disasters. Damage to caps or other barriers
should be repaired quickly, and sampling should be done to confirm that contamination has not spread beyond
the containment area.
Table 66: Barrier and Capping Remediation Methods
Method Description
Capping involves placing a cover over contaminated materials, preventing spread due to wind,
rainfall and runoff. Conventional Caps may have several layers made of asphalt or concrete, a
Conventional Capping 315
vegetative layer, a drainage layer, geomembrane or clay. Construction can range from a few days
to months, and caps require continued monitoring and maintenance.
These covers are placed on top of contaminated sediment in rivers, streams, bays and lakes. They
can both isolate and treat contaminated sediment. Contaminants either stick to amendments or
Amended Sediment Caps 316 are converted to forms that cannot pass through the cap and spread. Three main types of
amendments include activated carbon, organoclays and phosphate additives. This method is often
used in combination with dredging. These caps require ongoing maintenance.
ET covers prevent water from seeping into waste by storing rain or snowmelt until the water
Evapotranspiration (ET) evaporates or plant roots take up the water. Typically, a layer of organic-rich silty soil is laid over
Covers 317 the contaminated material. Plants with extensive roots well-suited for the local climate often work
best. This process often takes several months.
PRBs are walls created below ground to clean up contaminated groundwater. The walls are
permeable, which allows groundwater to flow through them. The reactive materials used to
Permeable Reactive Barriers
construct the wall, like iron, limestone, carbon or mulch, trap harmful contaminants or make them
(PRBs) 318
less harmful. This method is often used in tandem with bioremediation. PRB may take many years
to clean up contaminated groundwater but is relatively inexpensive.
This method prevents the movement of dangerous chemical vapors from contaminated soil,
groundwater or sewer lines into nearby buildings through cracks or seams in the foundation, gaps
Vapor Intrusion Mitigation 319 around utility lines or sump pits. This method involves sealing openings, installing vapor barriers,
passive venting, sub-slab depressurization or building over-pressurization. Air treatment units can
be used in tandem.
VEBs are walls built below ground to control the flow of groundwater. VEBs may divert the flow of
contaminated groundwater to keep it from reaching other water sources. They can also isolate
Vertical Engineered Barriers contaminated soil and groundwater, but unlike PRBs, they do not treat the isolated materials. They
(VEBs) 320 are made of impermeable or slightly permeable materials, sometimes with a protective cap and a
monitoring well. This can take several days to several months and must be maintained to stay
effective.
315 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Capping,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up Information Web Site,
EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
316 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Amended Sediment Caps,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
317 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Evapotranspiration Covers,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
318 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Permeable Reactive Barriers,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
319 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Vapor Intrusion Mitigation,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
320 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Vertical Engineered Barriers,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
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Greener Cleanups
Greener cleanups are a modern remediation strategy. They seek to reduce the environmental and carbon
footprint throughout the life of a remediation project. This can include a wide range of methods, including
emphasis on equipment efficiency, recirculation of water, increased protections for local ecosystems and
waste minimization strategies. This category refers to a broad set of cleanup methods that utilize naturally
occurring microbes and plants to aid in remediation.
The microbes and plants used in greener cleanups are preferably native to an area and chosen based on their
suitability for an area and persistence when exposed to contaminants. Similarly, naturally occurring microbes
may be introduced to an area in bioremediation and therefore pose no risk to adjacent communities. These
methods are typically utilized during later stages of remediation efforts to handle low concentrations of
contaminants.
Table 67: Advanced Sustainable Remediation Methods
Method Description
This method involves returning a contaminated site to more natural conditions and restoring habitat.
Ecological revitalization Structures on the site are removed, wetlands are restored and native plants and wildlife are
321 reintroduced. Capping and phytotechnologies are often incorporated. It can take many years for an
ecosystem to become established.
MNA relies on natural processes like biodegradation, sorption, dilution, evaporation and chemical
Monitored Natural reactions to decrease contaminant concentrations. It is best implemented as the last step in a cleanup
Attenuation (MNA) 322 when concentrations are low and requires monitoring. MNA sites must be monitored, and the process
can take several years to decades.
Phytotechnologies, such as phytoremediation, evapotranspiration covers, hydraulic control and
wetland construction, use plants to clean or contain contaminants in soil, sediment and water. Plants
can absorb, degrade or bind pollutants, preventing their spread. Constructed wetlands can treat
Phytotechnologies 323 contaminated surface water and runoff. These methods are typically used for low contamination levels
and can also control erosion, reduce noise, improve air quality and enhance site aesthetics. This
approach is currently used at the former BP Casper Refinery site in Wyoming. This method often takes
several years and can be lengthened by a short growing season or extreme weather conditions.
Bioremediation utilizes microbes, which eat and digest contaminants, to clean contaminated soil and
groundwater. Amendments may be pumped through underground wells to help encourage microbe
Bioremediation 324
activity, or soil may be dug up to clean in aboveground containers. This process can take months to
years to complete.
In Situ Treatments
In situ treatments are remediation treatments that are conducted in place, without having to excavate the soil
or groundwater for aboveground cleanup. Methods that remove contaminated soil or water for treatment
before returning them to the site are called "ex situ" treatments. In situ methods of cleanup include carbon
321 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Ecological Revitalization,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024, https://semspub.epa.gov/work/HQ/401587.pdf.
322 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Monitored Natural Attenuation,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024, https://semspub.epa.gov/work/HQ/401611.pdf.
323 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Phytotechnologies,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up Information
Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024, https://semspub.epa.gov/work/HQ/401615.pdf.
324 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Bioremediation,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up Information Web
Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024, https://semspub.epa.gov/work/HQ/401583.pdf.
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amendments, chemical oxidation, chemical reduction, sediment amendments and thermal treatments. These
methods may be used in tandem or prior to capping or barrier methods described above.
Table 68: In Situ Remediation Methods
Method Description
In Situ Carbon Amendments are materials placed underground to treat groundwater. Amendments are
often injected through vertical pipes to reach contamination, or trenches are filled with amendments.
In Situ Carbon Amendments form a reactive zone across the flow of the contaminated groundwater so that water flows
Amendments 325 through it. The amendments either contain or transform contaminants into less harmful substances. This
treatment is often used alongside bioremediation. Treatment using carbon amendments can range from
several months to a few years.
ISCO involves oxidants being added to contaminated soil and groundwater, resulting in a chemical
reaction that destroys contaminants and produces harmless byproducts. Oxidants are typically injected
In Situ Chemical underground via wells or injection points at different depths. Recirculation may be used to help treat a
Oxidation (ISCO) 326 large area faster, and multiple injections may be needed. If significant gases are produced due to heat
underground, they can be captured and treated. ISCO is typically followed by methods such as pump and
treat or monitored natural attenuation. Cleanup with ISCO can take a few months or years.
In Situ Sediment Amendments, like activated carbon and organoclays, are mixed into the surface layer of
In Situ Sediment sediment in rivers, streams, bays and lakes. The amendments stick to contaminants and reduce their
Amendments 327 bioavailability. Microbes may also be used in this process to degrade contaminants. It can take a few days
to several months to place and becomes more effective over time as complete mixing occurs.
In Situ Thermal Treatment methods move or “mobilize” harmful chemicals in soil and groundwater using
In Situ Thermal heat. The chemicals move through soil and groundwater to wells, where they are collected and piped to
Treatments 328 the surface to be treated. This method is particularly useful for chemicals that do not dissolve readily in
groundwater and is used in tandem with soil vapor extraction and air sparging.
Heat-Based Methods
Heat-based remediation methods utilize heat to destroy contaminants or separate them for further treatment.
Incineration and thermal desorption are relatively fast remediation options. Depending on the technology
available, these treatments may be done on site or after materials have been excavated and removed to
another facility for processing.
Table 69: Heat-Based Remediation Methods.
Method Description
Incineration involves burning hazardous materials to destroy contaminants. Materials may be
Incineration329 excavated or pumped into containers before incineration and may need to be further prepared.
Temporary onsite incinerators or offsite incinerators may be used. This method is useful in
325 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to In Situ Carbon Amendments for Groundwater,” Contaminated Site
Clean-Up Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024, https://semspub.epa.gov/work/HQ/401599.pdf.
326 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to In Situ Chemical Oxidation,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024, https://semspub.epa.gov/work/HQ/401601.pdf.
327 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to In Situ Sediment Amendments,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024, https://semspub.epa.gov/work/HQ/401605.pdf.
328 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to In Situ Thermal Treatment,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up
Information Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024, https://semspub.epa.gov/work/HQ/401607.pdf.
329 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Incineration,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up Information Web Site,
EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
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Method Description
situations where a fast cleanup is important to minimize harm. This approach can take a few weeks
to several years to complete.
Contaminated materials are excavated, and a thermal desorper removes contaminants by heating
them so they un-stick from oil, sludge or sediment. Contaminants evaporate and the vapors are
Thermal Desorption 330 separated and treated. This method may be faster and provide better cleanup than other methods,
particularly at sites with high contaminant concentrations. This can take from a few weeks to a few
years.
Previously Closed Refinery Sites: Case Studies
The following case studies provide real-world examples of refineries that have closed and the nature and scale
of cleanup work. While there are limits to the availability of data regarding some of these cases, every effort
has been made to generate useful lessons based on the best available public data.
Diamond Head Oil Refinery
The Diamond Head site (DHS) is a 30.5-acre property in Kearny, New Jersey that is home to a former oil
refinery. The refinery was in operation from 1949 to 1979. Several companies transitioned in and out of
ownership throughout the refinery’s operational life, the last of which being Ag-Met Oil Service, Inc. (later
renamed Newtown Refining Corporation). Six years after operations concluded, the site was sold to Hudson
Meadows Urban Development Corporation in 1985.331 Due to extensive contamination of chromium, dioxin,
lead and PCBs detected onsite, the U.S. EPA designated the DHS as a Superfund Site in 1991.
Remediation efforts at the site are in progress. The initial remedial investigation of the site by the EPA began in
2002 and concluded in 2009. The EPA has fenced the site and developed a comprehensive cleanup plan, which
involves dividing the site into three Operable Units (OUs) to address different contamination aspects grouped
by complexity and geography.332 For OU 01, remedial action began in 2022, with an estimated remedial action
completion date of November 2026. Remedial action in OU 2 is estimated to follow a similar timeline,
beginning in 2022 and ending in 2026. OU 03, which focuses on groundwater remediation, will begin a
combined remedial investigation/feasibility study in November 2026.333 This site is zoned for commercial and
industrial use, and the final redevelopment plan will likely depend on the level of cleanup achieved.334
Across all Operable Units, the remediation strategy involves the removal or capping of contaminated soil and
sediment, installation of vegetative soil covers, institutional controls to restrict future use, wetland restoration
and backfilling of excavated areas with clean soil. A total cost of $24 million has been estimated to implement
the remediation strategy at OU 01 and OU 02, with three potentially responsible parties: the town of Kearny, the
New Jersey Department of Transportation and Hudson Meadows Urban Renewal Corporation.335,336 Cleanup is
330 Office of Land and Emergency Management, “Community Guide to Thermal Desorption,” Contaminated Site Clean-Up Information
Web Site, EPA, accessed September 23, 2024.
331 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, "Site Visit Report: Diamond Head Oil Refinery Division Kearny, Hudson County, New
Jersey, EPA Facility ID: NJD092226000", May 11, 2001.
332 Environmental Protection Agency, “DIAMOND HEAD OIL REFINERY DIV. | Superfund Site Profile | Superfund Site Information | US
EPA”, Accessed August 10, 2024.
333 Environmental Protection Agency, “DIAMOND HEAD OIL REFINERY DIV. | Superfund Site Profile | Superfund Site Information | US
EPA”, Accessed August 10, 2024.
334 D’Auria, Peter, “Who Will Foot $24M Bill to Clean up of One of Hudson County’s Most Polluted Sites?” Accessed September 24, 2024.
335 D’Auria, Peter, “Who Will Foot $24M Bill to Clean up of One of Hudson County’s Most Polluted Sites?” Accessed September 24, 2024.
336 Environmental Protection Agency, “Diamond Head Oil Refinery Div. Kearny, NJ: Comprehensive Remedial Investigation Report for
OU1 and OU2”, May 30, 2017.
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currently being done using funds provided through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.334 There is no estimated
cost for OU 03 at this time.
Hudson Refinery
The Hudson Refinery site in Cushing, Oklahoma, operated from as early as 1917 until 1982 when it closed. 337
Land O’Lakes, Inc. is the surviving corporation of Midland, a former refinery operator. As such, Land O’Lakes is
responsible for the extensive soil, groundwater and surface water contamination left behind.338 The site has
been designated an EPA Superfund Site, and there is state and federal involvement and oversight.339
Cleanup efforts, which included removing asbestos-containing material (ACM), scrap metal, contaminated
soils, waste and treating and monitoring groundwater and surface water, began in early 2010. Several
structures were demolished in the cleanup process and contaminated materials were disposed of off-site,
where they were stabilized. While remediation took less than a year after construction began, the selected
remedy was estimated to cost $9,650,443 total.340
Cleanup concluded in late 2010, and monitoring and maintenance are the ongoing responsibilities of Land
O’Lakes. The site remedy has been deemed protective of human health and the environment during the most
recent five-year review in 2020.341 The site is zoned for industrial use, and institutional controls have been put
in place to limit future land uses.
Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) Refinery
The Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) refinery site (previously Sunoco Philadelphia Refinery), operated from
the early 1900s until 2019, when the facility closed after a fire and multiple explosions in June 2019.342 In 2012,
Sunoco transferred ownership to PES. Sunoco remains responsible for environmental liabilities through 2012,
while PES is responsible for legacy environmental liabilities after 2012.343 The site was purchased in 2020 by
Hilco Redevelopment Partners, who have also assumed liability for some of the cleanup.
The refinery has had intermittent cleanup efforts since 1997, including light non-aqueous phase liquid,
groundwater recovery, sewer ventilation and biofiltration. Cleanup efforts have focused on addressing
hydrocarbons and lead contamination in the soil and groundwater. Remediation is ongoing, and Hilco has
reported the removal of more than 90% of the pipeline and the removal of 99% of legacy petroleum products.
Hilco has not reported total costs of remediation efforts.
Hilco has begun construction of the warehouses that comprise the beginning of a commercial hub. The
property has since been renamed the “Bellwether District,” and there are plans to redevelop the land into a
sprawling campus for commercial purposes.344 In 2022, cleanup levels were consistent with future industrial
337 “HUDSON REFINERY | Superfund Site Profile | Superfund Site Information | US EPA.” n.d.
338 Environmental Protection Agency, “RECORD OF DECISION FOR HUDSON REFINERY SUPERFUND SITE (epa.gov)”, November 2007
339 “HUDSON REFINERY | Superfund Site Profile | Superfund Site Information | US EPA.” n.d.
340 Environmental Protection Agency, “RECORD OF DECISION FOR HUDSON REFINERY SUPERFUND SITE (epa.gov)”, November 2007
341 Environmental Protection Agency, “Second Five-Year Review Report; Hudson Refinery Superfund Site”, February 11, 2020.
342 Brockmeier, Erica, “After the shutdown, what comes next for the former Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery?”, PennToday,
January 26, 2022.
343 “Hazardous Waste Cleanup: Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refining and Marketing LLC (Formerly: Sunoco Incorporated Girard Point)
in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | US EPA.” 2024. US EPA. September 12, 2024.
344 Brockmeier, Erica, “After the shutdown, what comes next for the former Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery?”, PennToday,
January 26, 2022.
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use. Current efforts aim to ensure environmental safety and prepare the site for redevelopment into the
commercial campus.
Pester Refinery
The Pester Refinery Superfund site in El Dorado, Kansas has undergone cleanup since the 1990s. The refinery
was owned by Fina Oil and Chemical Company until 1977, when Pester Refinery Company bought it.345
Ownership was transferred again in 1985 when Coastal Derby refining Company bought the site. Soon after,
the refinery shut down and remediation became the responsibility of Pester Refining Company and Fina Oil and
Chemical Company, with the Kansas Department of Health and the Environment overseeing the project.
Remediation activities began in 1998 and were completed in 1999. Cleanup included sludge excavation, soil
bioremediation and groundwater monitoring. In 2005, efforts expanded to include solidification of
contaminated soils, regrading terrain, placing a soil cover and installing interceptor trenches. Groundwater
monitoring is ongoing.346
Approximate costs for remedial action were $2,374,800 in 1992 but may have increased due to unforeseen
remediation costs.347 Future uses of the site are limited to industrial uses based on the completed level of
remediation.
Empire Oil Refinery
The Empire Oil Refinery site in Gainesville, Texas, was owned and operated by The Empire Oil Company from
1916 until the 1935. Oxy USA and COOPCO, an energy and petroleum manufacturing company, bought the site
in 1982. The site was left heavily contaminated after operations ceased. Contaminants discovered include but
are not limited to petroleum hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, PAHs and metals. Some
unclassifiable constituents may have included organochlorine dioxin furan and PCB compounds or like
compounds.
Remediation began in 2008, and efforts involved the stabilization and capping of contaminated sediment and
the construction of wetlands, riparian and prairie habitats, to be persevered in perpetuity. The cleanup
concluded in 2014.348 Cost estimates were not available. Success criteria were evaluated relevant to the
survival of planted vegetation, maintenance of berms and spillways, control of invasive species and a
minimum amount of water retained by the constructed wetlands. Sites were monitored based on wildlife
utilization, pond utilization, vegetative cover growth and more.
BP Casper Refinery
The BP Casper Refinery was built in 1913 on the banks of the North Platte River in Wyoming. Refinery
operations ceased in 1991, leaving behind almost a century’s worth of oil spillage, sludge and over 200 miles
of buried pipeline. The refinery remained idle until 1998, when a BP and Amoco merger resulted in BP’s
345 Environmental Protection Agency, “Fourth Five-Year Review Report for Pester Refinery Superfund Site, El Dorado, Butler County,
Kansas (epa.gov)”, May 15, 2019.
346 Environmental Protection Agency, “PESTER REFINERY CO. | Superfund Site Profile | Superfund Site Information | US EPA”, Accessed
August 10, 2024.
347 Environmental Protection Agency, “Fifth Five-Year Review Report for Pester Refinery Superfund Site, El Dorado, Butler County,
Kansas (epa.gov)”, May 15, 2019.
348 U.S. Department of the Interior, “Case details: Former Empire Oil Refinery Site”, Accessed August 15, 2024.
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acquisition of the site. BP and the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality agreed in 1998 to
collaborate on remedial activities and reuse options.349
The site entered Wyoming’s Voluntary Cleanup Program in the late 1990s, and cleanup began shortly after.
Cleanup on the property included the removal and disposal or recycling of trash and wastes, instillation of a
subsurface barrier wall to contain seepage, removal of pipelines, excavation of soil, phytoremediation and
pump and treat systems. Identified contaminants included hydrocarbons, metals and sludge. An innovative
wastewater treatment plant was designed via engineered wetland. Cleanup was completed in 2005.350
Institutional controls have been implemented to contain and limit exposure to remaining contamination, as
some of these methods take significant time to complete cleanup. As the site was redeveloped, community
input helped inform the development of a golf course and restaurant, business park, kayak course and miles of
bike and walking trails. 351
349 Environmental Protection Agency, “BP Former Refinery, Casper, Wyoming Overview”, October 2007.
350 Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality, “RCRA Facility Fact Sheet; BP’s Former Amoco Refinery”, Accessed August 14, 2024.
351 Environmental Protection Agency, “BP Former Refinery, Casper, Wyoming Overview”, October 2007.
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Risk Assessments and Health Impacts
Shellfish Harvesting Closure Zones
Port Region Distance from Refinery Fishing Restriction by Species Named Fishing Areas Area (SQ.MI) % of Water Area by Distance Ring
North (refineries in Whatcom County)
0-10 All Species 2 28.64737344 11.19%
0-10 Butter Clams,Varnish Clams 17 227.3156134 88.81%
10-20 All Species 10 52.60872721 17.27%
10-20 Butter Clams,Varnish Clams 46 251.9877773 82.72%
10-20 None 1 0.045003865 0.01%
20-30 All Species 1 1.185190082 0.46%
20-30 Butter Clams,Varnish Clams 49 248.6467146 95.60%
20-30 None 4 10.26280653 3.95%
Central (refineries in Skagit County)
0-10 All Species 3 24.37580383 12.55%
0-10 Butter Clams,Varnish Clams 40 159.3257512 82.01%
0-10 None 6 10.58068779 5.45%
10-20 All Species 12 70.06081902 16.56%
10-20 Butter Clams,Varnish Clams 64 352.9092476 83.44%
20-30 All Species 5 129.8533766 20.49%
20-30 Butter Clams,Varnish Clams 45 503.8963357 79.51%
South (Refinery in Tacoma)
0-10 None 11 69.20448565 18.98%
10-20 Butter Clams,Varnish Clams 2 7.808150053 2.14%
10-20 None 37 139.2642131 38.19%
20-30 Butter Clams,Varnish Clams 16 51.36533196 14.08%
20-30 None 37 97.06214636 26.61%
Tribal Reservations
Port Region Distance from Refinery Tribal Reservation Name Regions Area (SQ.MI)
North (refineries in Whatcom County)
0-10 Lummi 2 22.1886816
20-30 Nooksack 1 0.011681875
20-30 Swinomish 1 8.964541435
20-30 Upper Skagit 1 0.146703169
Central (refineries in Skagit County)
0-10 Swinomish 2 11.42638803
10-20 Lummi 1 12.02520561
10-20 Upper Skagit 2 0.147659509
20-30 Lummi 1 10.16347599
20-30 Nooksack 1 0.011681875
20-30 Stillaguamish 1 0.053242579
20-30 Tulalip 1 22.18753624
South (Refinery in Tacoma)
0-10 Muckleshoot 1 1.395802498
0-10 Puyallup 1 29.10202026
10-20 Muckleshoot 1 4.326421261
10-20 Nisqually 1 2.969917059
20-30 Nisqually 1 5.240490913
20-30 Squaxin 1 1.651007056
Toxic Release RSEI Concentrations
Port Region Distance from Refinery Census Block Groups Average RSEI Concentrations
North (refineries in Whatcom County)
0-10 26 1558.586923
10-20 50 404.9728
20-30 54 516.4733333
Central (refineries in Skagit County)
0-10 42 564.0378571
10-20 84 474.9708333
20-30 74 643.1475676
South (Refinery in Tacoma)
0-10 174 1971.378266
10-20 238 5788.015105
20-30 286 7158.446538
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Figure 10: RSEI Concentrations in Proximity to Oil Refineries and Shellfish Harvesting
Restrictions.
This section contains a discussion of the environmental and health impacts of refinery operations and
resulting pollutants. These impacts disproportionately affected Native American communities and
communities of color. Figure 10 utilizes the EPA Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) model. The
RSEI model utilizes data from the EPA Toxic Release Inventory (TRI), which monitors toxic chemical
environmental releases and other waste management activities at industrial facilities across the United States.
The buffer rings around each refinery site capture a 10-mile ring around the refineries. Total analysis was
completed using a 30-mile zone, broken into 10-mile increments. Approximately 3,722,475 people are
contained within these buffer zones, based on census tract data. Some cities contained within the buffer rings
include Tacoma, Seattle, Bellevue, Anacortes and Bellingham. Fifty percent of the entire population across all
depicted buffer zones live northeast of a refinery, equal to 1,850,246 people. Roughly 40% of the population, or
1,307,806 people, live between 20-30 miles from one of the refineries.
Areas northeast of refineries were found to have higher RSEI scores the further the distance from the pollution
source. This is likely a result of wind direction, which can impact the movement of air pollutants. Historically,
for most of the year wind direction in the interior Puget Sound corridor blows from southwest to northeast.
Native populations have a greater concentration south of refineries, where hazardous materials are found in
higher concentrations within a close proximity to the refineries. Additionally, native population density is
highest within the 0–10 mile buffer zone and the southwest region. While wind direction may typically move
pollutants northwest of the refineries, this does not mean that wind direction is only southwest to northeast.
However, days with little wind or inversions may result in stagnation of pollutants within the 10-mile buffer ring.
This figure also displays the shellfish harvesting restrictions in areas adjacent to the refineries. Two refineries
in close proximity to each other result in irregular circles due to overlapping ranges, encompassing the
Swinomish and Lummi reservations. An important note is that there may be other polluters within these ranges
who contribute additional pollution. RSEI utilizes “worst-case assumptions” about toxicity and potential
exposure and does not indicate compliance with federal or state regulations. A low RSEI score does not
indicate a complete lack of risk, but rather that TRI data only includes what is reported, and therefore is limited.
It does not include all exposure pathways and explicitly does not include food ingestion except for fish
consumption. Additionally, this analysis uses census information to inform the demographic analysis above.
Health Impacts on Adjacent Communities
Communities in close proximity to refineries are known to experience an increased risk of developing adverse
health impacts. Oil refining operations have been linked to a variety of health issues, including but not limited
to, respiratory issues,352 increased cancer risks,353 and cardiovascular issues.354 Populations living within 10
miles of oil refineries experience higher cancer rates than populations at a greater distance.355 Various
chemicals in petroleum products in refineries can also cause birth defects, harm reproductive systems in men
352 Fleischman, L., Kingland, D., Maxwell, C., & Rios, E. (n.d.). Clean Air Task Force (CATF)• League of United Latin American Citizens
(LULAC) National Hispanic Medical Association (NHMA).
353 Cordiano, R., Papa, V., Cicero, N., Spatari, G., Allegra, A., & Gangemi, S. (2022). Effects of Benzene: Hematological and
Hypersensitivity Manifestations in Resident Living in Oil Refinery Areas. Toxics, 10(11), 678.
354 Oberschelp, C., Pfister, S., & Hellweg, S. (2023). Global site-specific health impacts of fossil energy, steel mills, oil refineries and
cement plants. Scientific Reports, 13, 13708.
355 Williams, S. B., Shan, Y., Jazzar, U., Kerr, P. S., Okereke, I., Klimberg, V. S., Tyler, D. S., Putluri, N., Lopez, D. S., Prochaska, J. D.,
Elferink, C., Baillargeon, J. G., Kuo, Y. F., & Mehta, H. B. (2020). Proximity to Oil Refineries and Risk of Cancer: A Population-Based
Analysis. JNCI cancer spectrum, 4(6), pkaa088.
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and women, neurological damage, and blood disorders.356 Refinery operations pose exposure risks to a variety
of chemicals, including but not limited to acetaldehyde, benzene, carbon monoxide, polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons (PAHs), formaldehyde, and sulfur dioxides. Emissions from refineries also contribute to ground
level ozone formation, smog or haze, and particulate matter pollution. As described in the COBRA analyses in
Chapter 3, reductions in refinery emissions would have benefits through reduced healthcare costs and reduced
instances of premature mortality and other conditions.
Washington's Environmental Health Disparities (EHD) map357 also has a filter utilizing RSEI scores, a part of 19
total indicators to help compare environmental health disparities across communities.358 This map can also
display TRI sites in area, including the refineries. The presence of the refineries and additional TRIs in and
adjacent to communities with higher proportions of people of color can contribute to adverse health impacts.
For example, a 2020 analysis359 found that 49.4% of the population within three miles of Superfund sites are
community members of color and tribal nations, despite comprising 39.6% of the U.S. population. That same
study found that 15.1% of populations living within three miles of refinery sites were below the poverty level,
compared to 13.7% of the total U.S. population. Per the EHD map360 filtered by the social determinant "People
of Color", census tracts near the Tacoma refinery and other industrial facilities have a ranking of 9, indicating
that communities of color also experience disproportionate impacts from industrial pollution. Similarly, low
income communities are often in close proximity to industrial facilities, disproportionately burdening them with
negative health impacts.361 These populations, which can and do overlap, face similar systemic injustices and
disenfranchisement to native communities as described in Chapter 1.
These areas with concentrations of industrial activities and marginalized communities may be referred to as
"sacrifice zones".362 Sacrifice zones, or "fenceline communities", contain low income communities and
communities of color adjacent to heavily polluted areas as a result of decades-old policies like redlining363 and
a lack of enforcement of environmental standards.364 These community members may be unable or unwilling
to relocate as a result of health hazards associated with nearby refinery operations and other TRIs. Particularly
for native communities, the refineries are located on and near lands they have called home since time
immemorial. The placement of refineries next to tribal reservations and/or Usual and Accustomed territories is
particularly problematic for a range of reasons. Native Americans have specific relationships with the lands
and waters they have stewarded from time immemorial. Their place is embedded in their identity. Economic
constraints can also prevent or complicate moving off reservation lands. Additionally, with varying impacts
from nation to nation, some tribal citizens have access to some of their nation's rights and resources only
when they reside on reservation land, further complicating the capacity of some tribal citizens to move away
from polluting refineries. The EHD map has various layers that allow users to explore the cumulative impacts
of pollution exposure, vulnerability described through socioeconomic factors, and other environmental threats.
356 California Government Proposition 65 Warnings, "Environmental Exposure from Refineries", Petroleum Products - Environmental
Exposure from Refineries - Proposition 65 Warnings Website
357 The map can be accessed here: https://fortress.wa.gov/doh/wtn/WTNIBL/
358 The map utilizes census tracts, referenced as communities, which receive rankings from one to 10 in each indicator.
359 Environmental Protection Agency, "Population Surrounding 1,857 Superfund Remedial Sites", September 2020.
360 EHD map
361 Jane Kay and Cheryl Katz, "Pollution, Poverty and People of Color: Living with Industry", Scientific American, June 4, 2012.
362 Lerner, Steve, "Sacrifice Zones: The Front Lines of Toxic Chemical Exposure in the United States", 2010, MIT Press. ISBN:
9780262518178
363 Vermeer, Danielle, "Redlining and Environmental Racism", University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability, August
16, 2021.
364 Environmental Protection Agency, "Environmental Justice in Enforcement and Compliance Assurance", December 18, 2023.
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The Department of Health is working to include more layers and information in the EHD map, including
gathering input from tribal communities.
An issue of particular concern is “flaring”, in which a refinery burns excess gasses, often for safety reasons.
Flaring can be planned or unplanned, with unplanned flaring utilized to help control pressure in a system and
avoid serious system failures that risk worker safety. Communities adjacent to refineries may be able to see
flames spewing from flares at a great distance. Flares also introduce additional pollutants into an area, which
can include oxides of sulfur (SOx), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO)
and reactive organic gases (ROG) including Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs). Refinery operations in
Washington have been fined as recently as 2021365 for exceeding legal visible emissions standards related to
flaring, with prior fines in 2016,366 2011,367 and 2005.368 Flaring at the HF Sinclair refinery in Anacortes
generated significant community concern in March 2023. A public statement was released on HF Sinclair’s
Facebook page the day after to acknowledge the flaring event and let community members know that the
required agencies had been notified.369 In 2015, an unplanned flare at the then Shell Anacortes refinery
reportedly prompted 67 complaints. This incident impacted more than 550 people who live and work on the
Swinomish Reservation, with reported symptoms including headaches, nausea, fatigue and irritation of eyes,
throat and lungs.370
Flares, along with all other refinery equipment, are subject to Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT)
standards for Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. A report was developed by the Northwest Clean Air Agency,
Puget Sound Clean Air Agency and Ecology in 2013 that outlines RACT policies at time of writing.371 Ecology
was court-ordered to adopt existing source minimum controls standards by May 2014. Since then, Washington
emissions standards have evolved to add additional standards, including a requirement that refineries
maintain an above-average efficiency rating or reduce their GHG emissions by 10% by 2025.372 At the time of
writing this report, Phillips 66 Ferndale refinery and U.S. Oil/Par Pacific Tacoma Refinery have decreased their
total GHG emissions output between 2020 and 2022, by 83,131 and 34,991 metric tons of carbon dioxide
equivalent respectively. Overall, the petroleum refining industry remains steady with approximately 6.2 million
tons of Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) each year. Unplanned flaring can result in the release of methane,
black soot, and nitrous oxide alongside other potent GHGs.373 PM2.5 from burned fossil fuels contributes to
365 Ysabelle Kempe, The Bellingham Herald. “A refinery spewed black smoke into this NW community. Now this oil giant will pay.”
Updated July 27, 2021. Accessed July 2, 2024.
366 Preston, Seth. “Shell’s Puget Sound Refinery penalized for chemical release | Northwest Clean Air Agency (nwcleanairwa.gov)”,
Northwest Clean Air Agency, November 16. 2016; Environmental Protection Agency, “Tesoro and Par Clean Air Act Settlement | US
EPA”, July 18, 2016.
367 Environmental Protection Agency, “02/01/2011: U.S. Oil and Refining Co. in Tacoma, Wash. settles with federal and local air
authorities for Clean Air Act violations (epa.gov)”, February 1, 2011
368 Environmental Protection Agency, “01/27/2005: U.S. Announces Clean Air Agreement with Largest Domestic Petroleum Refiner :
ConocoPhillips to Reduce Air Emissions at Facilities in Seven States (epa.gov)”, January 27, 2005.
369 Alzola, Briana, “Flames above refinery cause concern in community | News | goskagit.com” Go Skagit. March 5, 2023. ; HF Sinclair
Puget Sound Refinery Facebook page, At approximately 10:30... - HF Sinclair Puget Sound Refinery | Facebook, March 6, 2023.
370 Preston, Sean. “Shell’s Puget Sound Refinery penalized for chemical release | Northwest Clean Air Agency (nwcleanairwa.gov)”,
Northwest Clean Air Agency, November 16. 2016; Environmental Protection Agency, “Tesoro and Par Clean Air Act Settlement | US
EPA”, July 18, 2016.
371 Washington State Department of Ecology, “Washington Oil Refinery RACT - Technical Support Document”, November 25, 2013.
372 Washington State Department of Ecology, “Oil refinery requirements - Washington State Department of Ecology”, Accessed July 16,
2024.
373 International Energy Agency, "Gas Flaring".
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increased risk of death from cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer, increased risk of asthma, and increased
risk of lower birth weight and infant mortality.374
Train derailments also represent a significant risk of refinery operations, as evidenced by derailments in
2014375, 2020376, and 2023377. The 2020 and 2023 derailments both resulted in releases of toxic chemicals. The
2023 derailment occurred on the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community Reservation.378 Communities of color are
also often at risk during derailments. A 2024 study found higher densities of communities of colors along
railways.379 Pipelines like the Olympic Pipeline and McChord Pipeline also pose spill risks. In 2023,
approximately 25,326 gallons of gasoline were released from the Olympic Pipeline, triggering months of
cleanup and monitoring.380
The completion of a Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion in British Columbia has also increased marine vessel
traffic to Washington's refineries.381 This increase of traffic, including to Washington's refineries, has also
increased the number of oil tankers passing through more treacherous waters. The routes to Cherry Point in
Ferndale through the Rosario Strait pass with just a mile between underwater hazards, with similar risks in the
Guemes Channel passage to Anacortes.382 A San Juan County study found a range of total damages, using
values for commercial fishing, aquaculture, tourism spending, and damages to property value, recreational use
value, and ecosystem services. For the 4 million gallon spill of diluted bitumen scenario, total damages ranged
between over $142 million to over $509 million. For the 1 million gallon spill of heavy fuel oil scenario, total
damages ranged from over $84 million to over $243 million.383 Based on 2006 numbers, a large spill could cost
Washington $10.8 billion and 165,000 jobs.384
Another risk associated with petroleum refining are explosions. Older refineries, with older component parts
and equipment, may present increased risks. The catastrophic failure of a nearly forty-year-old heat exchanger
at the then Tesoro refinery in Anacortes killed seven employees in 2010.385 The 2019 Philadelphia Energy
Solutions refinery fire and explosions,386 attributed in part to the rupturing of an elbow pipe installed in 1973,
resulted in a widespread fire and multiple. Between August 2, 207 and March 3, 2023 153 refineries nationwide
reported a total of 1,539 injuries and 7 deaths.387 Alternative fuel refineries are not exempt from these hazards.
Biodiesel facilities, when compared to conventional petroleum refineries, have a much higher number of
accidents per billion barrels produced.388 The Marathon Martinez Biofuel Refinery experienced two fires in
374 Union of Concerned Scientists, "Oil Refineries: A Deadly Industry", September 26, 2024.
375 Washington State Department of Ecology, "BNSF Bakken Crude derailment", July 25, 2014.
376 Washington State Department of Ecology, "Custer Crude Oil derailment 2020", January 12, 2021.
377 Environmental Protection Agency, "BNSF Swinomish Channel Derailment UNIFIED COMMAND", March 18, 2023.
378 Tribal Business News, "Swinomish Tribe awarded nearly $400 million after BNSF Railway trespassed on reservation land." June 18,
2024.
379 Toxic Free Future, "How rail transport of vinyl chloride puts millions at risk, an analysis one year after the Ohio train derailment",
January 22, 2024.
380 Washington Department of Ecology, "Olympic Pipeline gasoline spill near Conway.", April 2, 2024.
381 Scruggs, Gregory, "Oil tanker traffic surges in WA waters with Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion", October 20, 2024.
382 The Seattle Times Archive, "Tugs, pilots form thin line of spill insurance", November 16, 1989.
383 San Juan County, "San Juan County Oil Spill Risk Consequences Assessment", February 2019.
384 Spill Prevention, Preparedness, and Response Program, “Spill Prevention, Preparedness, and Response Program", Washington State
Department of Ecology.
385 Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board, "Tesoro Anacortes Refinery Fatal Explosion and Fire", May 1, 2014.
386 Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board, "Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) Refinery Fire and Explosions", October 11,
2022.
387 Gibbons, Brendan, "Small western PA refinery topped list for most injuries among workers, with 119 over five years, federal data
show", Oil & Gast Watch Environmental Integrity Project, August 10, 2023.
388 Hao WU, Igor PEÑARRUBIA, Lin CUI, Jinsong ZHAO. "Process safety management considerations for biofuel production", Front. Eng,
2017, 4(3): 357‒367 https://doi.org/10.15302/J-FEM-2017025
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2023, one of which left an employee with burns on over 90% of his body. Refinery releases like the Marathon
refinery fire in Garyville, Louisiana can cause worsened respiratory symptoms among other symptoms in their
immediate aftermaths,389 and incur costs to evacuated residents. Contributing factors to this risk include the
relatively new emergence of alternative fuels refining. Many potential hazards are unknown due to each
facility’s unique design.390
Indigenous
Populations
Port Distance Census Indigenous Indigenous Area (SQ.MI)
Region from Blocks Population Population
Refinery Density
North (refineries in
Whatcom County)
0-10 2100 4294 9.585195862 447.9824995
10-20 2992 1660 2.47894876 669.6386899
20-30 3149 1597 1.911734846 835.3668939
Central (refineries in
Skagit County)
0-10 2027 1504 3.832718046 392.4108118
10-20 5117 5342 5.239372239 1019.587797
20-30 4921 4514 2.843417103 1587.526499
South (Refinery in
Tacoma)
0-10 10381 12026 35.2222334 341.4320683
10-20 12721 12490 12.88808735 969.1119914
20-30 19329 10688 6.798174705 1572.186721
389 Kherkher, Steve, "Marathon Refinery Fire Making Headlines for Offsite Impact", Kherkher Garcia LLP, September 17, 2024.
390 California Occupation Safety and Health Standards Board, “Proposed Petition Decision of the Occupational Safety and Health
Standards Board (Petition File No. 601)”, June 20, 2024.
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Figure 11: Native Population Proximity to Oil Refineries and Shellfish Harvesting
Restrictions.
Indigenous
Populations
Port Distance Census Indigenous Indigenous Area (SQ.MI)
Region from Blocks Population Population
Refinery Density
North (refineries in
Whatcom County)
0-10 2100 4294 9.585195862 447.9824995
10-20 2992 1660 2.47894876 669.6386899
20-30 3149 1597 1.911734846 835.3668939
Central (refineries in
Skagit County)
0-10 2027 1504 3.832718046 392.4108118
10-20 5117 5342 5.239372239 1019.587797
20-30 4921 4514 2.843417103 1587.526499
South (Refinery in
Tacoma)
0-10 10381 12026 35.2222334 341.4320683
10-20 12721 12490 12.88808735 969.1119914
20-30 19329 10688 6.798174705 1572.186721
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Figure 11 captures the density of native populations near refineries and restricted shellfish harvesting zones.
While overall population increases with distance from the refineries, tribal lands and citizens are located in
close proximity to several refineries. An important note here is that several of the refineries are located directly
adjacent to reservation land of tribal nations and, in some cases, are on unceded tribal lands and known
sacred and culturally significant sites. The proximity of Washington refineries to tribal nations substantively
impacts tribal communities. There are significant impacts to native citizens' ability to support traditional
subsistence gathering in these areas as a result.
Native communities also face the compounding effects of exposure from air pollutants, ground and water
pollutants, and fish consumption. Compared to other nearby communities without the same fish consumption
rates, native communities again experience a disproportionate burden of pollution effects.
Impacts to the Environment and Wildlife
The long-term presence of oil refineries and other industrial facilities along Fidalgo Bay and the Puget Sound
has introduced toxic pollutants to the area. As a result, seafood—a formerly abundant source of food with
significant cultural value—has been negatively impacted. The Washington Department of Health 391concluded
that
“eating seafood at tribal scenario rates is expected to harm children and adults’ health.… If any of the tribes
or nations are using Fidalgo Bay for harvesting and eating seafood at tribal scenario rates, this would
represent a ‘public health hazard’.”
Treaty tribes in the Puget Sound have reserved the right to take fish, hunt and gather off their reservations, as
described in relevant treaties.392 393 394 This includes marine and freshwater areas in and around Puget Sound.
The Swinomish Indian Tribal Community stated that Fidalgo Bay is an important historic harvest site that has
been impacted by contamination and has therefore had limited harvest in recent years. To better understand
potential exposures for Swinomish citizens, testing was completed from 2002 to 2006 of littleneck clams,
Dungeness crabs and butter clams, three species common in Swinomish diets. The study found a variety of
metals, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and organotoxins present in sampled species.395 Remediation of Fidalgo
Bay was launched in 2007, but marine biotoxin and pollution closure zones are still widespread in 2024. In July
2023, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) administered funding to the Swinomish
Indian Tribal Community for the construction of the first modern clam garden in the United States. This
391 Washington State Department of Health, “Health Consultation; Fidalgo Bay, Anacortes, Skagit County, Washington”, February 25,
2010.
392 "Tribal scenario rates" refers to the developed consumption pattern used to assess risk within the study. Tribal members consume
an estimated six to 11 times more fish than non-tribal members according to the EPA Columbia River Fish Contaminant Survey 1996-
1998.
393 Calculated using U.S. Census Tract Demographic data.
394 Pacific Fishery Management Council, "Tribes".
395 Swinomish Water Resources Program, December 1, 2006, Bioaccumulative Toxics in Subsistence-Harvested Shellfish –
Contaminant Results and Risk Assessment, Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, La Conner, WA.
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program aims to teach traditional cultural practices and ceremonial subsistence harvesting practices in
Swinomish youth, while also bolstering the resiliency of littleneck clam populations.396
Similarly, industrial development and activities among other factors at Cherry Point has contributed strongly to
the decline of Cherry Point Herring stock. While Cherry Point Herring once had the highest spawning biomass
in the state397, their population has been in significant decline for decades. By 2001, the once most prolific
stock in Puget Sound had declined by 94%.398 In 2023, no spawning was observed for the Cherry Point herring
stock, for the first time since formal monitoring began.399 Cherry Point herring are an important food source for
a variety of species significant to tribal communities, including Chinook and Coho salmon.
At a more general level, oil refinery effluents can also impact marine wildlife, with negative effects on growth
and reproduction.400 As an example, crude oil-derived polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are highly toxic
to Pacific herring embryo and larvae, with declining Puget Sound herring stocks less likely to withstand the
short-term impacts of a small, localized spills.401 When adult fish are exposed to oil, they may experience
reduced growth, enlarged livers, changes in heart and respiration rates, fin erosion and reproduction
impairment. Even if exposure to oil does not have lethal impacts to a species, it can make fish and shellfish
unsafe for human consumption as outlined above.402 Over time, even small spills can have a cumulative
negative impact on local wildlife populations. The effects can ripple up the food chain as affected species are
consumed. For example, Pacific herring are food for every large fish-eating species in the Salish Sea, including
Pacific salmon, seals and orcas.403
Additionally, PAHs released via refinery effluent may alter aquifers' community structure and soil microflora.
Effluent discharge may also contain heavy metals and other pollutants, which can bioaccumulate in fatty
tissues of humans and animals.404 Oil leaks during shipping or discovery, tank spillage, or incorrect disposal of
petroleum waste can contribute to soil pollution at petroleum refineries.405 These pollutants can
bioaccumulate in soil, water, and living tissues, contributing to ecosystem damage and negative health
outcomes. Heavy metals like nickel, copper, zinc, lead, and arsenic are sometimes found in refinery effluent.406
Heavy metals, alongside previously mentioned contaminants, can result in bioaccumulation and
biomagnification in ecosystems. The persistence of these contaminants increases vulnerability to disease,
396 Environmental Protection Agency, “Fish and Shellfish Program Newsletter”, July 2023.
397 Northwest Ecosystem Alliance, "Petition to list the Cherry Point population of Pacific herring, Clupea pallasi, as 'threatened' or
'endangered' under the Endangered Species Act, 16 U.S.C. § 1531 et seq. (1973 as amended).", January 21, 2004.
398 Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife, "News release: State scientists seek answers on Cherry Point herring decline", July 10,
2001.
399 Puget Sound Vital Signs, "Biomass of Spawning Pacific Herring", March 13, 2024.
400 Helen Wake, "Oil refineries: a review of their ecological impacts on the aquatic environment", Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science,
Volume 62, Issues 1–2, 2005, Pages 131-140, ISSN 0272-7714.
401 Spromberg, Julann A., Sarah E. Allan, and Nathaniel L. Scholz. 2024. “Potential Population-Level Impacts of Future Oil Spills on
Pacific Herring Stocks in Puget Sound.” Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 30 (1–2): 138–63.
doi:10.1080/10807039.2023.2301529.
402 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, "How does oil impact marine life?", Updated June 16, 2024.
403 Environmental Protection Agency, "Toxics in the Food Web: Pacific Herring and Harbor Seals".
404 Imam, A., Kanaujia, P. K., Ray, A., & Suman, S. K. (2021). Removal of Petroleum Contaminants Through Bioremediation with
Integrated Concepts of Resource Recovery: A Review. Indian journal of microbiology, 61(3), 250–261.
405 Almutairi H. H. (2024). Microbial communities in petroleum refinery effluents and their complex functions. Saudi journal of biological
sciences, 31(7), 104008.
406 P. Tsamos, S. Stefanou, F. Noli, "Assessment of distribution of heavy metals and radionuclides in soil and plants nearby an oil
refinery in northern Greece", Case Studies in Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Volume 9, 2024, 100593, ISSN 2666-0164.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 144
instances of early mortality, and have negative effects on the nervous systems, livers, kidneys, and endocrine
systems.407
Flaring, through the emission of sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide can contribute to acid
rain,408 which negatively impacts plants and animals. Negative impacts are most prominent in aquatic
environments, where species may be very sensitive to pH level and concentrations of aluminum. Soil
acidification may also negatively impact vegetation and agricultural activities.409 These same emissions also
contribute to PM2.5 and O3 pollution, contributing to nutrient depletion in soil, damaging sensitive forests,
reducing photosynthesis, and negatively affecting ecosystem diversity.410 411
Overall, proximity to refineries may result in negative health impacts for surrounding communities and the
environment. These negative impacts can be a direct result of refinery operations or the transport of refinery
products or inputs.
407 Environmental Protection Agency, "Salish Sea- Toxics in the Food Web", June 2021.
408 Gobo AE, Richard G, Ubong IUJ. Health impact of gas flares on Igwuruta/Umuechem communities in Rivers state. Journal of Applied
Sciences and Environmental Management. 2009;13(3):27-33
409 O. Sojinu S and Ejeromedoghene O (2019) Environmental Challenges Associated with Processing of Heavy Crude Oils. Processing of
Heavy Crude Oils - Challenges and Opportunities. IntechOpen.
410 Environmental Protection Agency, "Health and Environmental Effects of Particulate Matter (PM)".
411 Environmental Protection Agency, "Ecosystem Effects of Ozone Pollution"
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Conclusions
This report provides key data and analysis regarding economic impacts of current operations of Washington's
five refineries, and evaluates how these impacts may change in the future. It is intended to provide a source of
unbiased information that can be used by refineries, refinery workers, tribal nations, and residents of
neighboring communities to inform evaluation and future planning. While this report does not make policy
recommendations, the findings do indicate that Washington's refineries are expected to undergo significant
changes as Washington state moves to a net-zero economy, and that these changes will have broad impacts
on workers and communities. Key gaps are identified in this report that could provide the basis for future
study. These could include evaluating and making available new resources to support the current workforce to
be able to transition to other comparable jobs in these counties, and the importance of ensuring tribal
engagement is centered in follow on planning will be critical.
In addition, due to the exclusive use of public data, there are some gaps in the specificity that could be
provided related to particular refinery locations, worker demographics, and other key considerations. Future
analysis that is able to utilize additional refinery-specific data may provide further nuance that can help
planning for worker transition, potential remediation costs, and potential future uses of refinery sites. A
comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of alternative site uses, informed by community needs, may provide
crucial information. Non-industrial uses of refinery sites face additional hurdles related to remediation and
zoning, but any change of site use will be a drawn out process. Collaborative planning between the state,
refineries, and local communities is needed to navigate the transition as Washington decarbonizes.
Study data and scope limitations
It is important to note that this study relies exclusively on publicly available data. This is to ensure that
confidential business information is not inadvertently shared which could carry economic and legal risks. It
also means that some specific analyses and calculations were not possible to complete, such as analyzing the
particular costs associated with adding alternative fuel co-processing units at a particular refinery, or
calculating the costs of cleanup and remediation at particular refinery sites.
Another important scope consideration is that the budget and time available for this study did not permit a full
cost-benefit analysis of alternative refinery scenarios. A cost-benefit analysis would evaluate expected costs
and benefits of key changes in business activity. The study instead provides an economic impact analysis,
which evaluates a potential change in economic activity and models the anticipated changes to outputs,
including jobs, worker income, and taxes. This study primarily relies on an economic impact analysis approach
using IMPLAN, incorporating the use of additional tools and expertise related to assessing additional impacts
and co-benefits of refinery sector changes to the extent feasible.
Gaps and future research opportunities
This study assesses a wide range of possible scenarios that refineries may choose as they respond to energy
system changes and anticipated reductions in demand for petroleum products. The articulation of key findings
and the related analysis presented provides context that the legislature, refinery owners, refinery workers, and
communities impacted by refineries may choose to use as part of next steps following from the study. While
this study does not provide policy recommendations, certain gaps and research opportunities were identified
that may be considered for future work. These include:
• Analysis of individual refinery data to evaluate the costs of producing alternative fuels at specific
refinery sites.
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• Analysis of individual refinery data to evaluate the costs of cleanup of specific refinery sites to different
desired remediation standards.
• Analysis of specific refinery workforce demographics (age, wages and benefits, years of experience,
skill mastery), to provide a more thorough understanding of the needs of workers who may be
dislocated in future. As a note, some of this analysis as it pertains to the scope of potential state
pathways to early retirement programs may be provided in forthcoming research by the State
Workforce and Training Board.
• Detailed calculation of greenhouse gas emissions, local pollution, employment benefits and other
criteria related to specific proposals for future uses of refinery sites. Note that this will require detailed
data associated with particular project specifications.
• Additional evaluation of opportunities to align economic growth and development with strategic needs
for refinery workforce transition, that might direct new employment opportunities with aligned skill sets
for the current refinery workforce to Pierce, Skagit and Whatcom Counties.
Evaluation of opportunities to incentivize growth of existing industries or the future siting of future facilities in
Pierce, Skagit, and Whatcom counties that may align with the skills crosswalk discussed in this report. This
could benefit from review of future industrial decarbonization strategies or related state policies and
incentives.
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Appendix A: Engagement
ESSB 5187 included the following language regarding engaging tribal nations and stakeholders in developing
this research study:
(d) The study must include a robust public engagement process including local and state elected officials, labor
groups, fence line communities, port districts, economic development associations, and environmental organizations
in Skagit, Whatcom, and Pierce counties, and the five Washington refineries.
(e) The department must offer early, meaningful, and individual consultation with any affected Indian tribe for the
purpose of understanding potential impacts to tribal rights and resources including cultural resources,
archaeological sites, sacred sites, fisheries, and human health.
To facilitate meaningful engagement with tribal nations and the full spectrum of impacted stakeholders as
directed by the Legislature, Commerce and WWU developed a multi-pronged engagement strategy. For tribal
nations, the project team — led by WWU’s Executive Director of American Indian/Alaska Native and First
Nations Relations Laural Ballew and Commerce’s Director of the Office of Tribal Relations Michelle Gladstone-
Wade — notified tribes in Whatcom, Skagit, and Pierce counties about the project, attended tribal conferences
and events to discuss the project, and facilitated a number of one-on-one discussions with interested tribal
nations. For stakeholders, the project team conducted direct, one-on-one engagement with Washington’s
refinery operators, convened a project advisory committee, and facilitated a public webinar.
Tribal Engagement and Consultation
The project team developed and implemented tribal engagement and consultation activities at the direction of
Commerce’s Office of Tribal Relations and WWU’s Office of American Indian/Alaska Native and First Nations
Relations. Throughout the project development process, the team conducted the following engagement:
January 27 – February 1: Members of the project team attended the Affiliated Tribes of Northwest
Indians (ATNI) Winter Convention in Portland, Oregon. The team distributed printed materials with
information about the study (before it was officially kicked-off), briefly presented preliminary information
about the study in the Energy and Transportation committee meetings, and initiated informal
conversations about the study with tribal staff and leaders.
February – April: The Commerce Office of Tribal Relations and WWU Office of American Indian/Alaska
Native and First Nations Relations notified the Tulalip Tribe of Washington, Lummi Nation, Muckleshoot
Indian Tribe, Nisqually Indian Tribe, Nooksack Indian Tribe, Muckleshoot Indian Tribe, Puyallup Tribe,
Samish Indian Nation, and Swinomish Indian Tribal Community via a Dear Tribal Leader letter about the
study, including background on the proviso and an initial project timeline and scope, and offered the
opportunity for direct one-on-one consultation and/or engagement.
April 15-17: Members of the project team attended the ATNI Climate Summit at the Muckleshoot Casino
in Auburn, Washington. The team distributed printed materials with information about the study and
initiated informal conversations about the study with tribal staff and leaders.
April 19-23: Members of the project team attended the ATNI Mid-Year convention in Canyonville, Oregon.
The team distributed printed materials with information about the study and initiated informal
conversations about the study with tribal staff and leaders.
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July 2: Members of the project team were invited to travel to the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community and
present about the project to the Tribal Senate. Following the presentation, the team answered questions
and discussed perspectives on how oil refining has impacted the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community.
August 5: Members of the project team were invited to travel to the Lummi Nation and present about the
project to the Tribal Council. Following the presentation, the team answered questions and discussed
perspectives on how oil refining has impacted the Lummi Nation.
August – November: The project team continues ongoing outreach to tribal nations to offer initial
presentations to leadership and staff and follow-up meetings with those that have already engaged.
Refinery Engagement
The research team invited each of the five refineries to a meet and discuss their experiences within the
industry. These conversations were limited to each individual refinery operation (as opposed to convening
some/all refinery operators in one meeting) to eliminate the risk that any operator could be accused of
participating in anti-competitive behavior. At the beginning of each meeting, the research team explicitly
instructed the participants to refrain from discussing any non-public item related to their specific refinery and
stated that the entire discussion would be framed in terms of the industry in general and not a specific
location. Not all refineries chose to participate in these discussions, and those that did not were provided the
list of questions and given the opportunity to respond in writing, if they wished.
These discussions enabled the research team to hear from the industry on a number of topics that would
inform the study and was supplemented with two on-site tours held later by the research team where they were
able to see examples of the processes and facilities that they had studied.
Project Advisory Committee
Throughout the course of the study, the project team convened a project advisory committee. The purpose of
the committee was to convene stakeholders, constituents, and leaders/staff from sovereign tribal nations to
contribute input and feedback to the development of the study, including research assumptions and sources,
methodology, certain elements of the scope, draft findings, engagement, and the final report. The committee
was composed of individuals from Washington’s refineries, labor unions and contractors, environmental,
climate, and justice organizations, local governments, and tribal nations. The following list of organizations,
agencies, and tribal nations had representative(s) participate in the advisory committee over the course of the
project:
Anacortes Chamber of Commerce
BlueGreen Alliance
BP
Economic Development Alliance of Skagit County
Friends of the San Juan’s
Front & Centered
HF Sinclair Corporation
Lummi Nation
Marathon Petroleum
Nooksack Indian Tribe
Northwest Central Labor Council
Par Pacific
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Phillips 66
Pierce County Council
Port of Bellingham
RE Sources for Sustainable Communities
RMI
Sightline Institute
Skagit County Council
Swinomish Indian Tribal Community
Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber of Commerce
United Steelworkers District 12
United Steelworkers Local 12-591
Western States Petroleum Association
Whatcom County Council
The advisory committee convened four times: on May 14, July 1, August 14, and September 16, 2024.
Additional ad hoc meetings between refinery committee members and the project team were held to
supplement full-committee meetings when necessary.
Advisory committee members were shared a draft report on Monday, October 14 and had two weeks to review
and submit feedback and comments. Feedback was due back to the project team on Monday, October 28. The
project team considered feedback received within the comment period and made edits that were then
integrated into the final report.
Public Webinar
On Wednesday, September 18, the project team facilitated a virtual public webinar on the study. The purpose
of the webinar was to raise public awareness about the study, discuss key elements—including background on
the legislative request that directed Commerce to conduct the study, the research questions that were named
in the proviso, the project team’s approach and methodology, initial findings, tribal, stakeholder, and
community engagement, and next steps—answer questions, and gather feedback and reactions.
We promoted the webinar through various channels. Promotion included:
a request to advisory committee members to distribute event details to their partners and constituents,
direct email communications to staff and leadership at community-based and community-serving
organizations throughout Whatcom, Skagit, and Pierce counties,
a for-purchase ad on Facebook that ran to all account holders located within a 15-mile radius of Anacortes,
10-mile radius of Ferndale, and a 10-mile radius of Tacoma.
The webinar had 268 registrants and max participation of more than 80 audience members. The following day
after the webinar, all registrants were sent a recording of the webinar and a copy of the slides used.
In the Q&A portion of the webinar, audience members submitted questions related to the cost and
responsibility of environmental remediation at refinery sites, how the project team developed demand
projections and whether/how relationships between refineries and Washington military bases were
incorporated into them, how the workforce analysis element identified transferrable jobs for refinery workers,
and how the study assesses potential future refinery site uses.
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The project team recorded questions and feedback from the public webinar and used them to inform the
framing and description of the study’s findings. Additionally, further case study examples of the impacts of
heavy-industrial manufacturing facility closures in Washington were shared by an audience member for the
research team to assess and consider integrating into the study.
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Appendix B: Additional Materials for Chapter 3
Glossary
Term Definition
Alternative Jet Fuel (AJF) is a broad term for jet fuels with non-crude oil feedstock. This
Alternative Jet Fuel (AJF) term has been largely replaced by sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as this new term
encompasses desired sustainability attributes.
Anti-knocking agents serve as octane enhancers in fuel blends. Initially, lead was used as
an anti-knocking agent in gasoline, before being replaced with MTBE (among others) and
then ethanol. Knock occurs when fuel is prematurely ignited in the engine's cylinder,
Anti-Knocking Agents
decreasing efficiency and potentially damaging engines. Higher octane fuel blends can
improve vehicle efficiency, and potentially lower GHG emissions by reducing petroleum
consumption.
Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an apprenticeship is defined as a "formal relationship
between a worker and a sponsor that consists of a combination of on-the-job training and
Apprenticeship
related occupation-specific instruction in which the worker learns the practical and
theoretical aspects of an occupation.”
Biotoxins Biotoxins are poisons that come from plants or animals.xiv
Calcine Petroleum Coke (CPC) is a product produced during the crude oil refining process
Calcined Petroleum Coke (CPC)
that is used for fabrication of anodes in the aluminum electrolysis process.
Carbon emissions allowances are regulated amounts of carbon emissions that
businesses and consumers can expend. Each allowance is equal to one metric ton of
Carbon emissions allowance
CO2 equivalent, and businesses can buy allowances at auction. Businesses are required
to obtain allowances equal to their covered emissions.
Carbon intensity (CI) is the total amount of carbon dioxide released during a fuel's
Carbon intensity (CI) lifecycle per unit of transportation fuel energy that is released into the air. This includes
the time the raw materials are produced, to the time the fuel is used.
Carbon removal is a process with various approaches that aims to remove carbon
Carbon removal
dioxide from the atmosphere.
Carbon sequestration aims to lessen global climate change by removing and retaining
Carbon sequestration
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
The Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA) aims to commit Washington state to have
Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA)
an electricity supply free of greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2045.
The Climate Commitment Act (CCA) establishes a market-based program which caps
GHG emissions from Washington's largest emitting sources and establishes an
investment program to fund climate resilience, clean transportation and related
Climate Commitment Act (CCA)
programs. The CCA works by capping and requiring reductions in emissions from
Washington’s largest emitting sources and industries, allowing businesses to find the
most efficient path to lower carbon emissions.
Co-Processing occurs when biogenic carbon sources and crude oil are processed
Co-Processing together in an existing petroleum refinery with the resulting fuel typically having a lower
CI.
CAFE standards determine how many miles vehicles need to get from a gallon of fuel.
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)
These standards apply to passenger cars and to light trucks, with additional regulations
Standards
for medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks and engines.
Cracking is a process which uses heat, pressure, catalysts, and sometimes hydrogen to
Cracking crack heavy hydrocarbon molecules into lighter ones. This process helps refineries to
maximize the value of the crude oil that is processed.
Direct effects are the set of expenditures applied to the I-O multipliers for an impact
Direct Effects
analysis. It is one or more production changes or expenditures made by
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Term Definition
producers/consumers as a result of an activity or policy. Direct effects can be positive or
negative.
Distillate fuel oil is a light product which encompasses fuel oils used in vessel bunkering,
commercial uses (heating, cooking, etc.), industrial uses (heating, smelting,
Distillate Fuel Oil
manufacturing, mining, etc.) military uses, off-road diesel fuel, railroad use, residential
use, and electrical use.
Elemental sulfur is an element used in a broad range of industries, with its largest
Elemental Sulfur
application being the production of phosphate fertilizers.
Emissions-Intensive, Trade Exposed industries (EITEs) are those that face unique
challenges because they use high levels of energy and have high GHG emissions, but
Emissions-Intensive, Trade Exposed also have significant national or global competition for their products. Sudden or large
Industries (EITEs) changes to operational costs for these facilities could result in the business limiting in
state operation, or even relocating outside of the state. These industries often receive no-
cost emissions allowances.
This report defines an energy industrial facility as a facility that produces or stores
electrical energy. Various types of energy industry could fall into this category, including
Energy industrial processing raw methane into renewable natural gas, biomass energy production, green
electrolytic or renewable hydrogen production, renewable electricity production including
utility-scale wind, solar and geothermal and related categories.
The Environmental Health Disparities Map identifies communities overburdened by
environmental health risks and burdens, and which some policies such as the Climate
Environmental Health Disparities Map
Commitment Act use to target at least 35% of clean energy and climate resilience grants
to overburdened communities and at least 10% for projects with tribal support.
Feedstocks are organic, raw materials that are used to create products for industrial
Feedstock
processes.
Fischer-Tröpsch crude is a synthetic oil produced through the Fischer-Tröpsch process,
Fischer-Tröpsch crude
which converts H₂ and CO into hydrocarbons.
A flare is a gas combustion device used in many industrial plants as a safety tool to
Flare release excess pressure of equipment to prevent harm. The use of flares is typically
planned for scheduled maintenance, but can be used unplanned in emergency situations.
Fracking is a drilling process that relies on high pressure liquid to break up oil-rich shale
Fracking
deposits. Fracking has been instrumental in U.S. crude oil independence.
Crude oil is made up of a mixture of hydrocarbons, and the distillation process aims to
separate this crude oil into broad categories of its component hydrocarbons, or
Fractions
"fractions." Crude oil is first heated and then put into a distillation column, also known as
a still, where different products boil off and are recovered at different temperatures.
Green Electrolytic Hydrogen is hydrogen produced through electrolysis, a process that
uses electricity to separate the hydrogen and oxygen molecules in water. When the
Green Electrolytic Hydrogen
electricity used comes from renewable sources, this method creates hydrogen in a
carbon-free way. This process is done using a device called an electrolyzer.
Washington's Hazardous Substance Tax (HST) is a tax on the first possession of
hazardous substances in Washington. HST applies to petroleum products, certain
Hazardous Substance Tax (HST)
pesticides, and certain chemicals. The revenue provides funding for the Department of
Ecology and the Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA).
Heavy manufacturing supplies large industrial products and involves the use of heavy
machinery and complex industrial processes. Heavy manufacturing companies often sell
their products to large purchasers, which use them to create other products. Examples of
Heavy manufacturing
heavy manufacturing include the production of machinery used in other manufacturing or
material inputs used by light manufacturing to create a final product, such as production
of steel or chemicals that may be used to generate other products.
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Term Definition
Heavy petroleum products are products with higher boiling points which are recovered at
higher temperatures The "weight" of an oil is based on its API gravity. API gravity is a
Heavy petroleum products
system of classifying crude oils based on density and sulfur content. Heavy crude oils
require additional, more expensive processing to produce high value products.
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) cover natural gas liquids (ethane, propane, normal
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) butane, isobutane, and natural gasoline) and refinery olefins (ethylene, propylene,
butylene, and isobutylene).
IMPLAN is a planning software that can show its users the potential economic impacts
IMPLAN Economic Impact Software
of various inputs.
Indirect effects are the business to business purchases in the supply chain taking place
in the region that stem from the initial industry input purchases. As the industry specified
Indirect Effects
spends their money in the region with their suppliers, this spending is shown through the
indirect effect.
Induced effects are the values stemming from household spending of Labor Income,
Induced Impacts after removal of taxes, savings, and commuter income. The induced effects are
generated by the spending of the employees within the business’ supply chain.
Industrial symbiosis is a broad term referring to industrial operations that involve
collaborations and exchanges between multiple industries, allowing for a circular
transformation of materials through industrial processes. Through an exchange of
Industrial symbiosis
resources and energy, interdependent networks are created between industries, allowing
for the excess or waste materials from one industry to be used in the production process
of another industry.
If a product has inelastic demand, demand is relatively unresponsive to price changes
Inelastic Demand compared to products with elastic demand. Products considered necessities, which
consumers must buy regardless of their price, often have inelastic demand.
Job Dislocation refers to when employees have been laid off, terminated, or notified of
layoff from their jobs due to factors outside of their control. These reasons could be due
Job Dislocation
to changes in the economy, natural disasters, pandemics, industry or business model
changes, and company mergers or acquisitions.
Emissions leakage occurs when efforts to reduce emissions in one place cause
emissions to increase in another location or sector. If Washington’s overall emissions are
Leakage
reduced, but only because facilities have moved their operations and emissions to
another location, this would be referred to as leakage.
Light petroleum products are products with lower boiling points which are recovered at
Light petroleum products lower temperatures. The "weight" of an oil is based on its API gravity. API gravity is a
system of classifying crude oils based on density and sulfur content.
Location quotient is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ
of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as
Location Quotient
the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment
compared to the nation.
The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is a law that aims to reduce the carbon intensity of
Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) California’s transportation fuels by expanding access to low-carbon and renewable
options.
The Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA) is Washington’s law for cleaning environmental
contamination. MTCA funds and oversees the investigation, cleanup, and prevention of
Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA)
sites with hazardous substances. The law aims to protect health and the environment,
while preserving natural resources for the future.iii
In this report, nonenergy industrial encompass all industrial uses that are not energy- or
heavy manufacturing-related. Many nonenergy industrial facilities focus on producing
Non-energy industrial
and distributing consumer goods. Examples include warehouses, distribution centers,
ports, terminals and light manufacturing facilities. While heavy manufacturing primarily
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Term Definition
produces products intended for business and industrial use, light manufacturing
produces consumer goods
North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes classify businesses for the
North American Industry Classification
purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data, creating comparable
System (NAICS) codes
categories across industries.
Offset credits are credits that can be earned by emitters by investing in projects that
reduce, remove, or avoid greenhouse gas emissions to cover- or “offset”-their emissions.
Offset Credits There are strict criteria which must be met for emitters to earn these offset credits. The
programs or solutions that they invest in must result in permanent, quantifiable, verifiable,
and enforceable reductions to GHG emissions.
Orphan sites are contaminated sites wherein the potentially liable persons are financially
Orphan Sites
unable or unavailable to fund remediation at a contaminated site.
The Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs) are five geographic divisions
Petroleum Administration for Defense
of the 50 States and the District of Columbia that were established to help coordinate the
Districts (PADDs)
production and use of petroleum across the country.
Pyrolysis oil is a synthetic fuel produced by the pyrolysis process. Pyrolysis oil is made up
Pyrolysis Oil
of many different molecules, some coming from biomass, waste, plastics, and/or tires.
Refinery turnarounds are elaborate, large scale maintenance events that can double or
even triple the number of workers on site and involve around-the-clock work to minimize
operations impacts. Turnarounds happen every three to five years and can take anywhere
Refinery turnarounds from a few weeks to several months. They require extensive planning processes and
logistical management, sometime as long as two years. Turnarounds require large
numbers of skilled workers, and some contractors exclusively coordinate and manage
turnover.
According to the EPA, the RFS program is a national policy that requires a certain volume
Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) of renewable fuel be used to replace or reduce the quantity of fossil fuel in transportation
fuel, home heating oil, or jet fuel.xxiii
Residual fuel oil, which is heavier than distillate fuel oil, is used for vessel bunkering,
Residual Fuel Oil
heating, fuel, and manufacturing.
The SAM Multiplier is a measure of an industry's connection to the wider local economy
by way of input purchases, payments of wages and taxes, and other transactions. It is
SAM Multiplier
calculated as (Direct Effects + Indirect Effects + Induced Effects) / (Direct Effects). It
considers induced, indirect, and direct effects.
Scenic regions are areas that are considered aesthetically appealing. These locations
Scenic Regions may have additional value in potential residential or commercial uses because of
waterfront views and access.
A sensitivity analysis analyzes how variations in an input can lead to changes in an
Sensitivity Analysis
output.
Shutdowns are a type of refinery disruption to operations that can be planned or
unplanned. They involve the shutdown of specific units for maintenance and are used to
help bridge the gap between turnarounds. Unplanned shutdowns may be delayed by
Shutdowns
equipment and contractor availability, due to a shorter planning window. Emergency
shutdowns can be triggered for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to a loss of
utilities, unsafe conditions due to extreme weather, or a fire.
In the context of incentives for renewable energy, stacking refers to producers adding
Stacking together federal and state/province policies when making decisions regarding the
production of renewable fuel and location.
The Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system is a federal statistical standard
Standard Occupational Classification
used by federal agencies to classify workers into occupational categories for the purpose
(SOC) codes
of collecting, calculating, or disseminating data.
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Term Definition
Stream Day refers to the maximum number of barrels of input that a distillation facility
can process within a 24-hour period when running at full capacity under optimal crude
and product slate conditions with no allowance for downtime. This number is often
Stream Day
higher than barrels per calendar day, which factors in limitations like input quality,
environmental constraints, downtime for maintenance or repairs. Stream day capacity is
typically about 6% higher than calendar day capacity.
tCO2e TCO2e stands for “Tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.”
The Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax (MVFT) is paid by suppliers, distributors, refiners, and
blenders of fuel on each gallon of fuel imported, produced, or delivered from a terminal
The Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax (MVFT)
rack in Washington. This includes motor vehicle fuel and special fuels, such as diesel,
biodiesel, natural gas, and propane.
The Oil Spill Tax (OST) refers to the combined administration of the Oil Spill Response
The Oil Spill Tax (OST) Tax and the Oil Spill Administration Tax. OST is applied at a per barrel rate, and the
Petroleum Product Tax (PPT) is applied to the wholesale value of petroleum products.
The Petroleum Products Tax (PPT) is a tax on the first possession of petroleum products
The Petroleum Products Tax (PPT)
in Washington, and is imposed on the wholesale value of petroleum products.
The Type 1 is a measure of an industry's connection to the wider local economy by way
of input purchases only (no induced effects, no institutions internalized). This type of
Type 1 Multiplier
multiplier does not consider induced effects. It is calculated as (Direct Effects + Indirect
Effects) / (Direct Effects).
U.S. Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand The U.S. Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge gathers several federal agencies to
Challenge advance technologies for producing sustainable aviation fuels at a commercial scale.
The union wage premium is the difference in income that union members make in
Union Wage Premium
relation to non-union members.
Value added is the difference between an Industry's or establishment's total Output and
the cost of its Intermediate Inputs; it is a measure of the contribution to GDP. Value
Value added
Added is a large portion of Output, as it encompasses Labor Income (LI), Other Property
Income (OPI), and Taxes on Production and Imports (TOPI).
Washington State Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) is a policy intended to help limit carbon
Washington State Clean Fuel Standard pollution from transportation. The CFS aims to reduce the emissions from the production
(CFS) and supply of transportation fuels by providing an increasing range of low carbon and
renewable alternatives.
The Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) aims to reduce emissions from the production and supply
of transportation fuels, which is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in
Washington’s Clean Fuel Standard (CFS)
Washington. The CFS plans to do this by expanding low-carbon and renewable fuel
options to reduce dependence on petroleum.
Washington’s Buy Clean and Buy Fair law mandates the disclosure of environmental and
Washington's Buy Clean and Buy Fair
workforce impacts linked to the production of building materials for state construction
Law
projects.
A workforce crosswalk analysis assesses potential career paths for workers, taking into
Workforce crosswalk analysis
consideration their existing skills and experience.
Current and Historical Fuel Demand
Overview
Chapter 3 of the report is two-pronged, covering both a summary of existing petroleum refining capacity and
trends, as well import-export data for local, regional, national and global markets.
This section relies on a wide variety of data sets with two primary sources, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) and the Energy Institute (EI). Within the Department of Energy, the EIA compiles large
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 156
amounts of data about a variety of energy sources. The EIA is the primary source for local and regional data in
this report. Much of the U.S. and global data presented here was gathered from the Energy Institute’s
Statistical Review of World Energy, a publication in its 74th addition, dating back to 1952.
Historical Demand for Refined Petroleum Products
Based on the current capacity and markets as discussed in Chapter 1, this section covers demand for different
transportation fuels in Washington, the United States and globally.
Washington Demand
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects data on refinery sales volume to end users of
petroleum products for motor gasoline and other petroleum products. Between 2008 and 2010 there was a
sharp decline in the trend of refinery sales volume in Washington. Between October 2008 and January 2010,
there was a 648,000 gallon-per-day decline in gasoline sales and a 900,000 gallon-per-day decline in all
petroleum products sold between 2008 and 2010. However, this is not necessarily indicative of a long-term
local drop in demand for petroleum in Washington.
The observed decline was likely caused by a combination of factors, including the 2008 recession and
changing EPA restrictions around that time. The 2005 Energy Policy Act removed the oxygenate requirement
for reformulated gasoline, and the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was implemented. 412 The
implementation of the RFS, alongside growing concerns about leakage of certain chemicals including methyl
tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) into groundwater and reservoirs encouraged refineries to transition from using
MTBE as an anti-knocking413 agent to ethanol.414 415 The transition from MTBE to ethanol reduced some
refineries' capacities, in addition to lingering impacts of hurricanes in 2005 and 2007 reducing U.S. refining
capacity. 416 These events are part of a complex system of factors that impact fuel production and sales.
Leading into the 2008 recession, gas prices were high due to the aforementioned factors alongside changes in
the price of crude oil.417 418 While the price of gasoline fell in 2008, demand also fell sharply as households
spent less due to the recession. Gasoline demand is widely considered relatively inelastic, meaning that it does
not change much even when fuel prices change. Similarly, the overall downwards trend in gasoline sales can
be partially attributed to improved fuel economy standards for newer vehicle models. Fuel economy
improvements since the 1970s have saved enormous amounts of fuel, partially driven by required
412 Environmental Protection Agency Archive, "Gasoline: Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE)", Accessed August 6, 2024.
413 Anti-knocking agents serve as octane enhancers in fuel blends. Initially, lead was used as an anti-knocking agent in gasoline, before
being replaced with MTBE (among others) and then ethanol. Knock occurs when fuel is prematurely ignited in the engine's cylinder,
decreasing efficiency and potentially damaging engines. Higher octane fuel blends can improve vehicle efficiency, and potentially lower
GHG emissions by reducing petroleum consumption.
414 Federal Trade Commission Bureau of Economics, "Gasoline Price Changes and the Petroleum Industry: an Update", September
2011.
415 Stolark, Jessie, "Fact Sheet | A Brief History of Octane in Gasoline: From Lead to Ethanol", Environmental and Energy Study Institute,
March 30, 2016.
416 Reuters, "A short history of U.S. oil refining losses due to hurricanes", June 30, 2022.
417 Federal Trade Commission Bureau of Economics, "Gasoline Price Changes and the Petroleum Industry: an Update", September
2011.
418 Ristanovic, Anja, Hedge Solutions, "Major Oil Market Crashes in History", Oil & Energy Online, Accessed September 17, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 157
improvements under Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards. 419Despite a growing population and
fleet, gasoline consumption in the U.S. likely peaked in 2018, following a previous peak in 2007.420 421
Washington State Gasoline Retail Sales by Refiners
1,800
1,600
1,400
Thousand Gallons Daily
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-1993 Aug-1994 Jun-1995 Apr-1996 Feb-1997 Dec-1997 Oct-1998 Aug-1999 Jun-2000 Apr-2001 Feb-2002 Dec-2002 Oct-2003 Aug-2004 Jun-2005 Apr-2006 Feb-2007 Dec-2007 Oct-2008 Aug-2009 Jun-2010 Apr-2011 Feb-2012 Dec-2012 Oct-2013 Aug-2014 Jun-2015 Apr-2016 Feb-2017 Dec-2017 Oct-2018 Aug-2019 Jun-2020 Apr-2021 Feb-2022
Month-Year
Figure 12: Washington Gasoline Retail Sales by Refiners
EIA, Washington Sales to End Users, Total Refiner Motor Gasoline Sales Volumes.
Figure 12 shows the change in gasoline sales in Washington from 1990 to 2022. After the 2008 crash, sales
increased somewhat before peaking in 2019. Similarly, sales from 1990 to 2021for all other petroleum
products are displayed in Figure 13. This sales number recently peaked in 2019, following a trough in 2008. To
understand overall demand for refinery products, it is important to look at state level use estimates.
419 Greene, David L., Greenwald, Judith M., and Ciez, Rebecca E., "U.S. fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards: What have they
achieved and what have we learned?", Energy Policy, Volume 146, 2020. 111783, ISSN 0301-4215.
420 Energy Information Administration, "Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs): How much gasoline does the United States consume?"
421 Kirk, Karin. "Is this the beginning of the end for gasoline?", Yale Climate Connections, May 3, 2023.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 158
Washington State Other Petroleum Product Retail Sales By Refiners
4,000
3,500
Thousand Barrels Daily
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Year (1990-2021)
Figure 13: Washington Other Petroleum Product Retail Sales by Refiners
EIA, Washington Sales to End Users Refiners Sales, Volumes of Aviation Fuels, Kerosene, Propane, No. 1 and No. 2 Distillates.
Using the EIA total end-use sector energy consumption estimates422, part of their State Energy Data System
(SEDS), it is possible to plot the trends for both motor gasoline and total petroleum products. End-use
estimates for motor gasoline have been steadily increasing since 1990, whereas petroleum usage has stayed
relatively flat. A sharp decline can be seen in both total petroleum products and gasoline in 2020 as a result of
the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent travel restrictions. This can be seen in Figure 14.
Washington End-Use Sector Energy Consumption Estimates
165,000
Thousand Barrels per Year
145,000
125,000
105,000
85,000
65,000
45,000
1997
1999
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1998 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Motor Gasoline Total Petroleum Products
422 EIA, “Table CT3. Total End-Use Sector Energy Consumption Estimates, Selected Years, 1960-2022, Washington.” EIA. Accessed
August 13, 2024.
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Figure 14: Washington End-Use Sector Energy Consumption Estimates.
EIA, Table CT3, Total end-use sector energy consumption estimates.
Looking at the petroleum end-use by source, even as motor gasoline increases, end-use estimates for
petroleum products are stable or decreasing. Figure15 shows these changes in estimated consumption across
six categories.
Washington Petroleum End-Use Estimates By Source
70,000
Thousand Barrels Per Year
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Year
Distillate Fuel Oil HGL Jet Fuel Motor Gasoline Residual Fuel Oil Other
Figure 15: Washington Petroleum End-Use Estimates By Source.
EIA, CT3, Total End-Use Sector Energy Consumption Estimates.
The six categories represented in Figure 15 are:
1) Distillate Fuel Oil: a light product which encompasses fuel oils used in vessel bunkering, commercial uses
(heating, cooking, etc.), industrial uses (heating, smelting, manufacturing, mining, etc.) military uses, off-
road diesel fuel, railroad use, residential use and electrical use.
2) "Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL)": which “cover[s] natural gas liquids (ethane, propane, normal butane,
isobutane, and natural gasoline) and refinery olefins (ethylene, propylene, butylene, and isobutylene).” “The
State Energy Data System (SEDS) assumes that, except for propane, all other HGL products are consumed
only by the industrial sector." 423
3) Jet Fuel: Jet fuel includes both kerosene-type and naphtha-type until 2005. In 2005, naphtha-type was
moved into the "other" category.
4) Motor Gasoline: Motor gasoline within the SEDS uses 12 data series aggregated by the EIA to estimate
end-use consumption. Most of this data comes from the Federal Highway Administration Publication.
423 EIA. “Section 4. Petroleum.” State Energy Data System 2022: Consumption. Accessed August 12, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 160
5) Residual Fuel Oil: Residual fuel oil, which is heavier424 than distillate fuel oil, is used for vessel bunkering,
heating, fuel and manufacturing.
6) Other: The other category is a sum of 12 additional petroleum products, aviation gasoline blending
components, biofuels (excluding fuel ethanol), crude oil, petrochemical feedstocks 425 (including naphtha
less than 401° Fahrenheit, other oils equal to or greater than 401° Fahrenheit426, still gas427), motor gasoline
blending components, miscellaneous petroleum products, still gas, special naphthas, unfinished oils and
waxes.
Consumption per capita is steadily trending down, however overall petroleum product use in Washington has
remained relatively flat due to a growing population. Fuel efficiency upgrades in passenger vehicles have been
a major driver of decreased petroleum use. Error! Reference source not found.shows the increase in fuel e
fficiency for both Light-Duty vehicles with wheelbases less than 121 inches and for all motor vehicles from
1990 to 2022.
U.S. Vehicle Fuel Economy
27
Light-Duty Vehicles,
25 Short Wheelbase Fuel
Miles Per Gallon
Economy (Miles per
23
Gallon)
21
19
17 All Motor Vehicles Fuel
Economy (Miles per
15 Gallon)
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year (1990-2022)
Figure 16: U.S. Vehicle Fuel Economy
EIA, Table 1.8 Motor Vehicle Mileage, Fuel Consumption and Fuel Economy.
Most passenger vehicles on the road today are classified as Light-Duty vehicles with wheelbases less than 121
inches. Between 1990 and 2022 Light-Duty Short Wheelbase vehicles saw a 22.77% increase in fuel efficiency.
All vehicles saw a more modest, but still significant 12.8% efficiency increase over the same 22-year span.
According to the EIA, the transport sector is responsible for 80% of Washington’s petroleum consumption, with
half of that composed of motor gasoline. 428
424 Heavier or lighter refers to the "weight" of an oil, based on their API gravity. API gravity is a system of classifying crude oils based on
density and sulfur content. Heavy crude oils require additional, more expensive processing to produce high value products, and impact
the split of products that are made based on that oil's composition.
425 EIA, "Petroleum & Other Liquids: Definitions, Sources and Explanatory Notes".
426 401° Fahrenheit refers to the boiling range. Naphtha less than 401˚F is used as a petrochemical feedstock. Other oils equal to or
greater than 401˚F refers to oils with a boiling range equal to or greater than 401˚F intended for use as a petrochemical feedstock.
427 After 1986, still gas for other uses and petrochemical feedstocks were grouped together. Previously, still gas for other uses was
reported separately from still gas for petrochemical feedstocks.
428 EIA, “Oil and Petroleum Products Explained.” Refining crude oil - the refining process - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Accessed September 10, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 161
The 2019 Department of Commerce Biennial Energy Report discusses how low gasoline prices brought the
cost of driving to a historic low in 1998.429 Partially due to the higher cost of gasoline in recent years, vehicle
miles traveled (VMT) per capita for Washington residents has fallen roughly 1,000 miles between 2010 and
2021.430Washington has the fourth lowest per capita VMT, behind only New York, Rhode Island and Hawaii.
The largest change in VMT per capita occurred in King County, Washington's most populated county. Much of
Washington's population lives in centers with access to public transportation and bicycle infrastructure. Many
Washington residents live along the I-5 corridor, which is now being serviced by the Sound Transit Link Light
Rail, allowing easier transit access to cities for suburban commuters. Washington Department of
Transportation's commitment to reducing VMT through infrastructure improvements has made significant
progress. Washington is currently number one in the country in per capita VMT reduction.431
U.S. Demand
The Statistical Review of World Energy produced by the Energy Institute compiles energy data from a variety of
sources across the globe. Data on refinery throughput helps demonstrate demand for refinery products. This
data shows the quantity of petroleum inputs processed domestically. Changes in throughput are driven largely
by changes in demand. Crude and condensate are inputs in the petroleum refining process. Throughput is
"based on the quantity of crude and condensate processed in atmospheric distillation units and condensate
splitters."432 Throughput is influenced by demand, which is susceptible to shocks. The U.S. refinery utilization
rates tend to fluctuate between 80% to 100%, with 90% or above utilization deemed "high".433 These
fluctuations happen based on time of year, shutdowns for facility maintenance and seasonal demand
fluctuation.
Ignoring the pandemic-induced dip and continuing recover period, U.S. refineries have processed an increasing
amount of petroleum inputs over the past several decades. This result is expected with increasing petroleum
product usage in the U.S., as well as increased exports globally. However, this differs somewhat from the
relatively flat overall demand in Washington. This also comes as many refineries expand their existing
capacity, through reactivation of decommissioned units or small additions. The newest refinery with
significant downstream unit capacity coming online in 1977.434 Historically, capacity additions have outpaced
429 Washington State Department of Commerce, “2019 Biennial Energy Report.”, December 2018.
430 “Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Targets –Final Report.” Washington State Department of Transportation, June 2023.
431 “Implementation of Vehicle Miles Traveled Targets and Supporting Actions – Interim Report.” Washington State Department of
Transportation, June 2024.
432 “Statistical Review of World Energy 2024.” Energy Institute, June 2024.
433 Paz, Cassia. "What is it- Refinery Utilization", Mansfield Energy, September 6, 2023.
434 EIA, "Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs), When was the last refinery built in the United States?); EIA, "U.S. refining capacity
increased in 2023 with expansions at existing facilities", July 30, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 162
the loss of capacity due to refinery closures. 435
U.S. Oil Refinery Throughput
18,000
Thousand Barrels Daily
17,000
15,963
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Years (1990-2023)
Figure 17: U.S. Oil Refinery Throughput.
Energy Institute, 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, Oil: Refinery Throughput.
Consumption of most refinery product types has fluctuated over the past several decades. Most product types,
except for fuel oil and diesel, are currently trending up after some reductions post 2000 and COVID-19
pandemic-related declines. The decline in diesel consumption may be related to an increasing reliance on
biodiesel and alternative fuels for traditionally diesel-run vehicles, while the decline in fuel oil consumption is
likely related to the modernization of heating systems. Gasoline and jet fuel consumption saw the most
significant pandemic-related declines of all petroleum products.
22,000
U.S. Oil Consumption
21,000
Thousand Barrels Daily
20,000
19,000
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year (1990-2023)
Figure 18: U.S. Oil Consumption.
Energy Institute, 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, Oil: Consumption.436
435 EIA, 'Ownership of U.S. petroleum refineries has changed significantly since 200", January 29, 2014.
436 Oil in this table refers to "Inland demand plus international aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of
biogasoline (such as ethanol) and biodiesel are excluded while derivatives of coal and natural gas are included."
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 163
In line with the increasing consumption levels for many refined petroleum products, U.S. oil refining capacity
has been steadily increasing for many years. In 1990, capacity equaled 15,676,000 barrels per day, and in 2019,
capacity reached 18,974,000 before pandemic declines (Error! Reference source not found.). In the U.S., r
efining capacity has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, capacity was 18,429,000 barrels per
day, or 545,000 barrels per day fewer than in 2019.
U.S. Oil Refining Capacity
20,000
Thousand Barrels Daily
19,000
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Years (1990-2023)
Figure 19: U.S. Oil Refining Capacity.
Energy Institute, 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, Oil: Refining Capacity.
During the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic, between 2020 and 2022, the U.S. saw seven refineries
closed, for a total of 129 operable refineries at the start of 2023.437 No refineries closed in 2023.438 The 2022
EIA Annual Energy Outlook discusses the loss of 750,000 barrels per day of total refining capacity either as a
result of the COVID-19 pandemic or conversion to renewable diesel production, from six refineries.439 The
Santa Maria Refinery in California's closure resulted in capacity loss of 9,500 barrels per day, which was
outweighed by capacity additions from the reactivation of previously retired units. As of this report, four of the
seven closed refineries have reopened as biofuel refineries. The HollyFrontier refinery in Cheyenne, Wyoming
and the Dakota Prairie refinery in Dickinson, North Dakota have both transitioned to renewable diesel
production.440 The Tesoro (Marathon) refinery in Martinez, California has also transitioned to biofuel
production.441 The Phillips 66 Rodeo, California refinery has transitioned to biofuel production442, with its
upstream partner facility in Santa Maria closing for demolition and remediation.443 Another facility, the Shell
refinery in Convent, Louisiana, is undergoing construction to convert the facility to biofuel production.444 Two
437 Energy Information Administration, "Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs): How much gasoline does the United States consume?".
438 EIA, " Refinery Capacity Report: New, Shutdown, and Reactivated Refineries During 2023", Released June 14, 2024.
439 “Annual Energy Outlook 2022 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).” Annual Energy Outlook - Refinery closures lower
domestic crude oil distillation operating capacity, but refinery utilization rates remain flat over the long term - U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA). Accessed September 5, 2024.
440 “Annual Energy Outlook 2022 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).” Annual Energy Outlook - Refinery closures lower
domestic crude oil distillation operating capacity, but refinery utilization rates remain flat over the long term - U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA). Accessed September 5, 2024.
441 Voegele, Erin, “Marathon: Martinez Biorefinery to Reach Full Production in 2023”, Biomass Magazine, October 31, 2023.
442 Epstein, Curt, "Major SAF Plant Goes to Full Capacity, Other Ponder", Aviation International News, July 11, 2024.
443 Lindt, John, "Phillips 66 refinery to meet the wrecking ball", The Santa Maria Times, March 26, 2024.
444 Shell, “Shell Convent: A Groundbreaking Transformation Already Underway”, nola news, February 12, 2023.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 164
other closed refineries, the Western Refining refinery in Gallup, New Mexico and Philadelphia Energy Solutions
in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, remain indefinitely idled or closed for redevelopment.
Global Demand
Global petroleum product usage has also seen increased amounts of petroleum throughputs in recent
decades, albeit with a steep drop during the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Global oil consumption has
increased by 51% from 66,198,000 barrels in 1990 to 100,221,000 in 2023. This is a much steeper rise in
consumption than in Washington or the U.S overall. The drop in consumption seen in 2020 was equivalent to
8,775,000 barrels per day, or nearly 9% of 2019 consumption.
World Oil Refinery Throughput
82,988
85,000
80,000
Thousand Barrels Daily
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Figure 20: World Oil Refinery Throughput.
Energy Institute, 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, Oil: Refinery Throughput.
In part, this consumption has been driven by rapid economic growth in several countries in Asia. Dynamic
factory activity and infrastructure investments in China have been a significant driver behind increases in
global oil demand445, and higher levels of oil use for transport in India is expected to help drive increases in the
future. However, rising electric vehicle adoption, fuel efficiency improvements and shifts away from oil-based
electricity generation in these countries and others will likely offset some of this momentum.446
445 Healy, Ciaran, and Bressers, Alexander, "China's slowdown is weighing on the outlook for global oil demand growth", International
Energy Agency, September 12, 2024.
446 International Energy Agency, "Slowing demand growth and surging supply puts global oil markets on course for major surplus this
decade", June 12, 2024; International Energy Agency, "Oil 2024: Analysis and forecast to 2030", June 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 165
Global Oil Consumption
110,000
105,000
Throusand Barrels Daily
100,000
95,000
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Years (1990-2023)
Figure 21: Global Oil Consumption.
Energy Institute, 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, Oil: Consumption.
Like U.S. consumption patterns, global consumption of most refinery product types has fluctuated over the
past several decades. Global consumption of all product types is currently trending up. Fuel oil stands as an
outlier among its neighbors, with an overall downward trend that bottomed out in 2020. As defined in this
context by the Energy Institute, fuel oil is a product used in marine bunkers and as crude oil used directly for
fuel. Besides shipping, fuel oil is used for heating and power generation. The general trend away from using
petroleum as a source of electricity in favor of more cost effective and greener alternatives has diminished the
role fuel oil plays in global consumption.
World Oil Consumption by Refinery Product Group
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
-
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Light Distillates: Gasoline Light Distallates: Naphtha Middle Distillates: Diesel/Gasoil
Middle Distillates: Jet/Kerosene Fuel oil Others
Figure 22: World Oil Consumption by Refinery Product Group.
Energy Institute, 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, Oil: Regional Consumption.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 166
Of all product types, naphtha has seen the most inconsistent growth in consumption, with declines in 2018,
2019, 2020 and 2022. Consumption of this product, while currently trending up, has not returned to 2021 levels
after the 2022 decline. Naphtha is a fraction separated in the distillation process and represents a small share
of total petroleum product consumption; it is mainly used as a feedstock in petroleum products like high
octane gasoline.447 Naphtha also finds its way into many petroleum based solvents. Its consumption volatility
is indicative of demand for other finished refinery products. Transportation fuels like gasoline, diesel and jet
fuel saw the most significant global pandemic-related consumption declines of all petroleum products, as
seen in Figure 22. The COVID-19 pandemic drastically reduced the volume of transportation worldwide and
demand for coinciding fuels. Compared to a baseline VMT before the pandemic, many European countries saw
passenger VMT fall to 25-50% of the baseline, taking months to recover. Belgium and France stayed below the
pre-pandemic level of VMT for three months. Falling below the baseline for passenger vehicle VMT in March
2020, the U.S. stayed below pre-pandemic levels of travel until February 2021.448 Other countries, like Canada
and the U.K., took longer to return to their prior baselines.
World Total Oil Refining Capacity
120,000
100,000 Total World
Thousand Barrels Daily
80,000
OECD Countries
60,000
Non-OECD
40,000 Countries
20,000 U.S.
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Year (1990-2023)
Figure 23: World Total Oil Refining Capacity.
Energy Institute, 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, Oil: Refining Capacity.
While global oil refining capacity has been increasing for several decades, capacity in Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)449 member countries has seen minor fluctuations for many
years. This indicates that the global increase in capacity is mainly supported by refinery activity in non-OECD
countries,450451 which has steadily increased from 22,989,000 barrels per day in 1990 to 59,844,000 barrels per
day in 2023. In particular, China is expected to add 1,500,000 barrels per day of new refining capacity between
447 “Naphtha.” BMT | Cargo Handbook - the world’s largest cargo transport guidelines website. Accessed September 10, 2024.
448 “Daily Vehicle Travel during the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency.” Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Accessed September 11,
2024.
449 The OECD is a unique collaboration of 39 member countries to develop policy standards to promote sustainable economic growth.
Some member countries include: the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, Japan, Chile, and Finland.
450 Offshore Technology, "Global top five upcoming oil refineries", July 19, 2024.
451 As of July 2024, 181 announced and planned refineries are expected to come online between 2024 and 2030. By region, Africa is
expected to add 70 refineries, Asia is expected to add 46 refineries, and the Middle East is expected to add 30 refineries.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 167
2022 and 2028 to help meet their demand. Growing fuel demand in developing countries is likely, although
some developed countries may see fossil fuel demand peak in coming decades.
Imports and Exports of Refined Petroleum Products
Petroleum Administration for Defense District 5
This analysis is conducted at the Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 5, which covers the
west coast of the United States, including Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska and Hawaii.
PADD 5 is geographically isolated from other U.S. refining centers and from global refining centers that can
efficiently supply product to the U.S. east coast. While pipelines can move products from the Gulf Coast to
New York Harbor on the east coast, no pipelines cross the Rocky Mountains to connect PADD 5 to the
Midwest. The monthly import data to PADD 5 (including foreign imports) going back to 2004 is displayed in
Figure 24. These imports are typically responsible for 100% of production in PADD 5, due to limited ability to
move product in PADD 5. There is an overall upward trend in petroleum product imports, as terminals in PADD
5 receive an increasing amount of petroleum products over time.
Weekly Imports of Petroleum Products West Coast (PADD 5)
900
800
700
Thousand Barrels Daily
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May
07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07, 07,
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Date
Figure 24: Weekly Imports of Petroleum Products to the West Coast (PADD 5).
EIA, Weekly West Coast (PADD 5) Imports of Total Petroleum Products.
In-region refineries are the primary source of transportation fuels in PADD 5. Specifications for motor gasoline
and diesel fuel vary state-to-state and even within some states. Some product specifications, like the California
Air Resource Board (CARB) gasoline and diesel fuel are not produced at all refineries in PADD 5, much less the
U.S. or rest of the world. PADD 5 is sensitive to in region supply disruptions because even when outside
refineries can meet these fuel specifications, supplies are not generally kept on hand and take time to reach
PADD 5. Disruptions to in-region production creates reliance on imports to cover gaps, with a majority of these
imports coming from waterborne imports. In region imports include via deliveries via pipeline or rail. Notably,
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 168
Eastern Washington is supplied largely by refineries in PADD 4, due to a lack of pipeline across the Cascade
Range of mountains. 452 Nevada and Arizona also receive some shipments from PADD 3 and PADD 4, which is
connected to supply in Southern California and Southern Nevada.
Monthly Exports of Petroleum Products West Coast (PADD 5)
600
500
Thousand Barrels Daily
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-2004 Aug-2004 Mar-2005 Oct-2005 May-2006 Dec-2006 Jul-2007 Feb-2008 Sep-2008 Apr-2009 Nov-2009 Jun-2010 Jan-2011 Aug-2011 Mar-2012 Oct-2012 May-2013 Dec-2013 Jul-2014 Feb-2015 Sep-2015 Apr-2016 Nov-2016 Jun-2017 Jan-2018 Aug-2018 Mar-2019 Oct-2019 May-2020 Dec-2020 Jul-2021 Feb-2022 Sep-2022 Apr-2023 Nov-2023
Date
Figure 25: Monthly Exports of Petroleum Products from the West Coast (PADD 5).
EIA, West Coast (PADD) 5 Exports of Total Petroleum Products
Just as the volume of products imported into PADD 5 has increased with time, so has the volume of product
leaving PADD 5 to foreign countries. The COVID-19 pandemic-induced dip is likely due to a decrease in
domestic production of petroleum products. When assessing the domestic movements of petroleum products,
the amount of product received by PADD 5 from other districts saw a large jump around 2009 to 2010. This
coincides with a drop in retail gasoline sales by Washington Refiners.
452 EIA, "PADD 5 Transportation Fuels Markets", September 2015.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 169
West Coast (PADD 5) Annual Shipments of Petroleum Products to Other
PADDs
4,000
Thousand Barrels Annually
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year (1990-2023)
Figure 26: Annual Shipments of Petroleum Products from PADD 5 to Other PADDs.
EIA, West Coast (PADD 5) Shipments by Pipeline, Tanker and Barge to Other PADDs of Total Petroleum Products.
However, over time the net receipt 453of petroleum products has begun to grow. The number of shipments
outgoing from PADD 5 has begun to level out since 2017. Contrastingly, the number of shipments received in
PADD 5 has been growing since 2006. Generally, PADD 5 imports more products than it exports, and most of
what is produced with PADD 5 remains in the region. The Pacific Coast Collaborative agreement between
British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and California has contributed to the development of aligned policies
promoting clean energy and reduced GHG emissions. These policies and the standards developed after may
contribute to the barriers of importing transportation fuels from other regions.
453 EIA, West Coast (PADD 5): Net Receipts by Pipeline, Tanker, Barge and Rail between PAD
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 170
West Coast (PADD 5) Net Shipments of Petroleum Products between
PADD 5 and Other PADDs
200000
Thousand Barrels Annyally
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year (1990-2023)
Figure 27: West Coast (PADD 5) annual net receipts of petroleum products from other
PADDs, excluding net crude oil movements.
The Pacific Northwest (PNW) exports primarily motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel and renewable diesel.
Primary export markets include Canada, Mexico and other countries in Central and South America.454
United States
Even though the U.S. is a net petroleum exporter, the U.S. imports more crude oil than is exported. However,
the growth of domestic drilling operations over the past 30 years has reduced American reliance on foreign
crude.
454 EIA, "PADD 5 Transportation Fuels Markets", September 2015.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 171
U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil
12000
Thosand Barrels Daily
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year (1990-1993)
Figure 28: EIA, U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil.
Fracking, a drilling process that relies on high pressure liquid to break up oil-rich shale deposits, has been
instrumental in U.S. crude oil independence. The U.S. leads the world in fracking, with the largest share of
shale (tight) oil reserves.455 In 2023, fracking was responsible for 64% of the U.S. crude oil production.456
In May 2011, the U.S. became a net exporter of petroleum products. In 2023, crude oil accounted for 40% of
U.S. petroleum product exports. The U.S. is the largest exporter of motor gasoline in the world, with a majority
of gasoline exports going to Mexico and the remainder going primarily to Central American and South
American countries. Over 90% of these exports come from the U.S. Gulf Coast, part of PADD 3. The majority of
U.S. propane exports go to Asia, and distillate fuel exports primarily go to countries in South America and
Central America.457
455 Rapier, Robert. “Global Leaders in Shale Oil and Gas Reserves.” Forbes, February 19, 2024.
456 “Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs).” U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), March 2024.
457 EIA, "The United States is the world's largest gasoline exporter", September 24, 2024.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 172
U.S. Net Imports of Total Petroleum Products
3,000
2,000
1,000
Thousand Barrels Daily
0
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
-4,000
-5,000
Year (1993-2023)
Figure 29: EIA, U.S Net Imports of Total Petroleum Products.
Global
Global oil trade follows a relatively steady growth pattern. Figure 30 depicts total oil trade, which is the total
amount of oil imported and exported, in thousand barrels per day. While falling slightly from the peak in 2016,
this category has seen 1.5% growth between 2013 and 2023.
Total Oil Trade
80,000
Thousand Barrels Daily
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year (1990-2023)
Total Oil Trade
Figure 30: Energy Institute, 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, Oil: Trade
Movements.
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 173
Appendix C: Additional Materials for Chapter 4
Table 70: Total Industry Occupation Breakdown of Petroleum Refining in Washington,
including one-year projected changes in employment, via JobsEQ.
Current Current Avg Employment Total
SOC Occupation Exits Transfers
Employment Ann Wages Growth Demand
51- Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery
316 $89,900 8 20 -2 26
8093 Operators, and Gaugers
51- Mixing and Blending Machine Setters, Operators,
147 $63,600 5 10 0 15
9023 and Tenders
51- First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating
120 $124,800 4 7 0 11
1011 Workers
49-
Industrial Machinery Mechanics 97 $108,300 4 4 2 10
9041
53-
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 64 $67,600 3 4 0 7
3032
53- Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers,
51 $59,100 3 4 0 7
7062 Hand
51- Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and
43 $88,000 2 3 -1 4
9061 Weighers
47-
Construction Laborers 39 $59,000 1 2 0 3
2061
11-
Industrial Production Managers 37 $168,900 1 2 0 3
3051
51-
Chemical Plant and System Operators 36 $87,700 1 2 0 3
8091
13-
Business Operations Specialists, All Other 35 $132,800 1 2 0 3
1199
47- Operating Engineers and Other Construction
35 $85,300 1 2 0 3
2073 Equipment Operators
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and
41-
Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific 35 $126,300 1 2 0 3
4012
Products
53-
Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators 34 $70,600 1 2 0 3
7051
11-
General and Operations Managers 33 $199,600 1 2 0 3
1021
17-
Industrial Engineers 33 $145,200 1 1 0 2
2112
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 174
Current Current Avg Employment Total
SOC Occupation Exits Transfers
Employment Ann Wages Growth Demand
17-
Petroleum Engineers 33 $143,500 1 1 0 2
2171
49- First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and
33 $144,700 1 1 0 3
1011 Repairers
43-
Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks 31 $97,200 1 2 0 3
5061
47-
Electricians 31 $126,400 1 2 0 3
2111
51-
Plant and System Operators, All Other 30 $78,200 1 2 0 3
8099
19-
Chemical Technicians 29 $84,100 1 3 0 3
4031
51- Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and
29 $54,200 1 2 0 3
9111 Tenders
51-
Machinists 28 $106,900 1 2 0 3
4041
17-
Chemical Engineers 25 $141,900 1 1 0 1
2041
19-
Chemists 25 $97,000 0 1 0 2
2031
17-
Mechanical Engineers 22 $144,100 1 1 0 1
2141
51-
Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders 22 $74,000 1 1 0 2
9011
51- Furnace, Kiln, Oven, Drier, and Kettle Operators and
21 $75,600 1 1 0 2
9051 Tenders
13-
Accountants and Auditors 21 $108,900 1 1 0 2
2011
49-
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 20 $82,200 1 1 0 2
9071
47- First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and
20 $122,600 1 1 0 2
1011 Extraction Workers
49- Electrical and Electronics Repairers, Commercial
20 $138,900 1 1 0 2
2094 and Industrial Equipment
51-
Team Assemblers 19 $62,400 1 1 0 2
2092
43-
Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks 19 $65,500 1 1 0 2
5071
13-
Project Management Specialists 19 $161,400 0 1 0 1
1082
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 175
Current Current Avg Employment Total
SOC Occupation Exits Transfers
Employment Ann Wages Growth Demand
43-
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 19 $61,000 1 1 0 2
3031
11-
Architectural and Engineering Managers 18 $218,000 0 1 0 1
9041
19-
Occupational Health and Safety Specialists 17 $133,500 1 1 0 2
5011
43-
Office Clerks, General 17 $64,100 1 1 0 2
9061
13-
Logisticians 16 $126,500 0 1 0 2
1081
13- Purchasing Agents, Except Wholesale, Retail, and
16 $108,400 1 1 0 1
1023 Farm Products
11-
Managers, All Other 14 $182,300 0 1 0 1
9199
43- Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except
14 $67,400 1 1 0 1
6014 Legal, Medical, and Executive
51-
Production Workers, All Other 13 $73,300 1 1 0 1
9199
13-
Human Resources Specialists 13 $124,100 0 1 0 1
1071
41- Sales Representatives, Wholesale and
13 $142,000 0 1 0 1
4011 Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products
First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and
53-
Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo 12 $92,800 0 1 0 1
1047
Handling Supervisors
47-
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 10 $122,600 0 1 0 1
2152
11-
Sales Managers 10 $190,100 0 1 0 1
2022
17-
Electrical Engineers 10 $152,800 0 0 0 1
2071
43- First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative
10 $110,100 0 1 0 1
1011 Support Workers
51-
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 10 $90,900 0 1 0 1
4121
43-
Customer Service Representatives 9 $69,800 1 1 0 1
4051
17-
Civil Engineers 9 $171,900 0 0 0 1
2051
13-
Compliance Officers 8 $130,900 0 0 0 1
1041
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 176
Current Current Avg Employment Total
SOC Occupation Exits Transfers
Employment Ann Wages Growth Demand
Sales Representatives of Services, Except
41-
Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and 8 $146,100 0 1 0 1
3091
Travel
17-
Engineers, All Other 8 $142,500 0 0 0 1
2199
13-
Financial and Investment Analysts 8 $120,700 0 0 0 1
2051
13-
Training and Development Specialists 8 $148,000 0 0 0 1
1151
17-
Environmental Engineers 7 $141,500 0 0 0 1
2081
17-
Electronics Engineers, Except Computer 7 $147,100 0 0 0 0
2072
17- Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technologists
7 $125,400 0 0 0 1
3023 and Technicians
43- Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative
7 $81,600 0 0 0 1
6011 Assistants
11-
Financial Managers 7 $182,600 0 0 0 1
3031
13-
Management Analysts 7 $155,700 0 0 0 1
1111
13- Market Research Analysts and Marketing
7 $108,600 0 0 0 1
1161 Specialists
19-
Occupational Health and Safety Technicians 6 $129,600 0 1 0 1
5012
17- Health and Safety Engineers, Except Mining Safety
6 $143,100 0 0 0 0
2111 Engineers and Inspectors
49- Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine
6 $76,200 0 0 0 1
3031 Specialists
17- Engineering Technologists and Technicians, Except
6 $93,300 0 0 0 1
3029 Drafters, All Other
53-
Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders 6 $54,100 0 0 0 1
7121
53-
Wellhead Pumpers 6 $82,600 0 0 0 1
7073
47- Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment
6 $79,100 0 0 0 1
2071 Operators
11-
Computer and Information Systems Managers 6 $188,000 0 0 0 0
3021
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 177
Current Current Avg Employment Total
SOC Occupation Exits Transfers
Employment Ann Wages Growth Demand
19- Environmental Scientists and Specialists, Including
5 $127,900 0 0 0 0
2041 Health
53-
Stockers and Order Fillers 5 $65,100 0 1 0 1
7065
15-
Software Developers 5 $158,500 0 0 0 0
1252
43-
Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance 5 $65,900 0 0 0 0
5032
11-
Construction Managers 5 $191,600 0 0 0 0
9021
51- Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters,
5 $85,500 0 0 0 1
9021 Operators, and Tenders
11-
Facilities Managers 4 $198,700 0 0 0 0
3013
11-
Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers 4 $164,300 0 0 0 0
3071
15-
Computer Systems Analysts 4 $143,800 0 0 0 0
1211
51-
Helpers--Production Workers 4 $57,900 0 0 0 1
9198
11-
Marketing Managers 4 $182,900 0 0 0 0
2021
11-
Human Resources Managers 4 $201,700 0 0 0 0
3121
49- Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All
4 $98,700 0 0 0 0
9099 Other
53-
Light Truck Drivers 4 $70,800 0 0 0 0
3033
19- Geological Technicians, Except Hydrologic
4 $56,000 0 0 0 0
4043 Technicians
51-
Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators 4 $117,100 0 0 0 0
8021
13-
Cost Estimators 4 $116,400 0 0 0 0
1051
51- Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting
4 $72,300 0 0 0 0
9041 Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
17- Mechanical Engineering Technologists and
3 $123,200 0 0 0 0
3027 Technicians
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 178
Current Current Avg Employment Total
SOC Occupation Exits Transfers
Employment Ann Wages Growth Demand
49-
Millwrights 3 $97,600 0 0 0 0
9044
19- Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and
3 $162,900 0 0 0 0
2042 Geographers
15-
Computer Occupations, All Other 3 $159,800 0 0 0 0
1299
17-
Materials Engineers 3 $141,900 0 0 0 0
2131
17- Industrial Engineering Technologists and
3 $146,800 0 0 0 0
3026 Technicians
11-
Administrative Services Managers 3 $174,900 0 0 0 0
3012
33-
Crossing Guards and Flaggers 3 $57,000 1 0 0 1
9091
11-
Purchasing Managers 3 $158,400 0 0 0 0
3061
15-
Computer Network Architects 3 $177,200 0 0 0 0
1241
43- Weighers, Measurers, Checkers, and Samplers,
3 $59,300 0 0 0 0
5111 Recordkeeping
37- Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and
3 $59,800 0 0 0 0
2011 Housekeeping Cleaners
15-
Network and Computer Systems Administrators 3 $118,500 0 0 0 0
1244
49- Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except
2 $61,700 0 0 0 0
3042 Engines
51-
Gas Plant Operators 2 $113,800 0 0 0 0
8092
43-
Billing and Posting Clerks 2 $76,900 0 0 0 0
3021
51-
Assemblers and Fabricators, All Other 2 $64,700 0 0 0 0
2099
15-
Computer User Support Specialists 2 $99,100 0 0 0 0
1232
47-
Boilermakers 2 $124,600 0 0 0 0
2011
27-
Film and Video Editors 2 $90,900 0 0 0 0
4032
43-
Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks 2 $94,300 0 0 0 0
3051
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 179
Current Current Avg Employment Total
SOC Occupation Exits Transfers
Employment Ann Wages Growth Demand
43-
Receptionists and Information Clerks 2 $54,000 0 0 0 0
4171
51- Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and
2 $74,200 0 0 0 0
9012 Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
41-
First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers 2 $138,500 0 0 0 0
1012
19-
Hydrologic Technicians 2 $72,200 0 0 0 0
4044
53-
Conveyor Operators and Tenders 2 $64,700 0 0 0 0
7011
49-
Maintenance Workers, Machinery 2 $76,500 0 0 0 0
9043
15-
Operations Research Analysts 2 $136,300 0 0 0 0
2031
33-
Firefighters 2 $229,300 0 0 0 0
2011
53-
Pump Operators, Except Wellhead Pumpers 2 $123,700 0 0 0 0
7072
13-
Labor Relations Specialists 2 $126,000 0 0 0 0
1075
17-
Drafters, All Other 2 $85,400 0 0 0 0
3019
23-
Lawyers 2 $267,800 0 0 0 0
1011
43-
Order Clerks 2 $51,900 0 0 0 0
4151
15-
Computer Network Support Specialists 2 $128,400 0 0 0 0
1231
51- Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters,
2 $69,800 0 0 0 0
9124 Operators, and Tenders
37-
Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 2 $49,800 0 0 0 0
3011
51- Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and
1 $75,500 0 0 0 0
4081 Tenders, Metal and Plastic
11-
Chief Executives 1 $363,900 0 0 0 0
1011
27-
Graphic Designers 1 $97,600 0 0 0 0
1024
43- Human Resources Assistants, Except Payroll and
1 $78,100 0 0 0 0
4161 Timekeeping
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 180
Current Current Avg Employment Total
SOC Occupation Exits Transfers
Employment Ann Wages Growth Demand
11-
Emergency Management Directors 1 $152,400 0 0 0 0
9161
33-
Security Guards 1 $71,700 0 0 0 0
9032
51- Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters,
1 $59,700 0 0 0 0
4072 Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
49-
Riggers 1 $118,100 0 0 0 0
9096
33- First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention
1 $236,900 0 0 0 0
1021 Workers
47- Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline
1 $67,000 0 0 0 0
5022 Operators, Surface Mining
43-
Procurement Clerks 1 $60,800 0 0 0 0
3061
19-
Materials Scientists 1 $136,500 0 0 0 0
2032
17- Environmental Engineering Technologists and
1 $143,900 0 0 0 0
3025 Technicians
27-
Public Relations Specialists 1 $128,200 0 0 0 0
3031
47-
Carpenters 1 $76,600 0 0 0 0
2031
11-
Public Relations Managers 1 $218,900 0 0 0 0
2032
53- Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station
1 $50,600 0 0 0 0
7071 Operators
11-
Natural Sciences Managers 1 $191,500 0 0 0 0
9121
47-
Construction and Related Workers, All Other 1 $76,900 0 0 0 0
4099
17- Electro-Mechanical and Mechatronics
1 $129,800 0 0 0 0
3024 Technologists and Technicians
41-
Sales and Related Workers, All Other 1 $67,400 0 0 0 0
9099
15-
Data Scientists 1 $149,900 0 0 0 0
2051
51- Cutting and Slicing Machine Setters, Operators, and
1 $63,400 0 0 0 0
9032 Tenders
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 181
Current Current Avg Employment Total
SOC Occupation Exits Transfers
Employment Ann Wages Growth Demand
19- Life, Physical, and Social Science Technicians, All
1 $42,700 0 0 0 0
4099 Other
19- Environmental Science and Protection Technicians,
1 $94,400 0 0 0 0
4042 Including Health
29-
Registered Nurses 1 $118,300 0 0 0 0
1141
53-
Crane and Tower Operators 1 $100,900 0 0 0 0
7021
23-
Paralegals and Legal Assistants 1 $132,100 0 0 0 0
2011
17-
Calibration Technologists and Technicians 1 $130,700 0 0 0 0
3028
17- Mining and Geological Engineers, Including Mining
1 $179,100 0 0 0 0
2151 Safety Engineers
53-
Machine Feeders and Offbearers 1 $44,300 0 0 0 0
7063
47-
Elevator and Escalator Installers and Repairers 1 $119,500 0 0 0 0
4021
49- Helpers--Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
1 $51,700 0 0 0 0
9098 Workers
17-
Mechanical Drafters 1 $87,200 0 0 0 0
3013
11-
Training and Development Managers 1 $192,700 0 0 0 0
3131
13-
Financial Specialists, All Other 1 $118,200 0 0 0 0
2099
13-
Wholesale and Retail Buyers, Except Farm Products 1 $116,100 0 0 0 0
1022
51- Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and
1 $49,300 0 0 0 0
9195 Plastic
27-
Producers and Directors 1 $117,600 0 0 0 0
2012
41-
Insurance Sales Agents 1 $81,000 0 0 0 0
3021
53-
Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment 1 $41,600 0 0 0 0
7061
15-
Database Administrators 1 $121,000 0 0 0 0
1242
Total 2,241 n/a 73 126 -1 199
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 182
Table 71: Statewide Alternative Industries for Top 25 Occupations in Washington, via
JobsEQ.
% of
NAICS Avg Ann Empl Total
SOC Occupation Alternative Industry Occ Empl Exits Transfers
Code Wages Growth Demand
Empl
Petroleum and Coal
Products 3241 69.8% 418 $89,900 102 265 -21 347
Manufacturing
Petroleum Pump
51- System Operators, Management of
8093 Refinery Operators, Companies and 5511 6.6% 40 $95,300 10 27 4 41
and Gaugers Enterprises
Other Pipeline
4869 5.8% 35 $86,500 9 23 1 32
Transportation
Petroleum and Coal
Products 3241 8.6% 195 $63,600 70 127 0 197
Manufacturing
Mixing and Blending
51- Machine Setters, Cement and Concrete
9023 Operators, and Product 3273 7.7% 175 $54,700 63 114 0 176
Tenders Manufacturing
Other Food
3119 7.5% 170 $51,500 64 115 15 193
Manufacturing
Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 10.6% 1,583 $97,100 578 900 49 1,527
Manufacturing
First-Line
51- Supervisors of Ship and Boat
3366 6.3% 946 $80,800 334 520 -36 818
1011 Production and Building
Operating Workers
Grocery and
Convenience 4451 4.2% 622 $80,800 223 347 -6 565
Retailers
Commercial and
Industrial Machinery
and Equipment
(except Automotive 8113 11.4% 996 $66,700 399 455 252 1,106
and Electronic)
Repair and
Maintenance
49- Industrial Machinery
9041 Mechanics Machinery,
Equipment, and
4238 10.5% 915 $67,900 353 403 151 907
Supplies Merchant
Wholesalers
Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 7.9% 693 $84,000 276 314 165 756
Manufacturing
General Freight
4841 26.9% 11,399 $66,000 5,242 6,873 553 12,668
Trucking
Specialized Freight
53- Heavy and Tractor- 4842 11.6% 4,915 $66,000 2,263 2,967 253 5,484
Trucking
3032 Trailer Truck Drivers
Grocery and Related
Product Merchant 4244 5.7% 2,415 $66,000 1,104 1,447 86 2,637
Wholesalers
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 183
% of
NAICS Avg Ann Empl Total
SOC Occupation Alternative Industry Occ Empl Exits Transfers
Code Wages Growth Demand
Empl
Employment
5613 14.0% 7,773 $40,500 3,774 6,369 217 10,361
Services
Laborers and Freight,
53- Warehousing and
Stock, and Material 4931 12.5% 6,942 $50,300 3,602 6,078 1,216 10,896
7062 Storage
Movers, Hand
Couriers and Express
4921 8.4% 4,686 $47,200 2,398 4,047 672 7,117
Delivery Services
Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 25.8% 3,442 $84,200 1,470 2,519 106 4,095
Manufacturing
Inspectors, Testers,
51- Employment
Sorters, Samplers, 5613 4.5% 596 $46,600 254 436 16 706
9061 Services
and Weighers
Architectural,
Engineering, and 5413 4.1% 552 $68,300 233 399 3 635
Related Services
Other Specialty Trade
2389 22.9% 7,673 $61,000 2,758 3,940 454 7,152
Contractors
Residential Building
2361 21.6% 7,233 $57,100 2,655 3,793 761 7,209
47- Construction Construction
2061 Laborers
Foundation,
Structure, and
2381 10.9% 3,654 $61,800 1,307 1,867 179 3,353
Building Exterior
Contractors
Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 22.2% 1,116 $159,700 272 487 34 793
Manufacturing
Management of
11- Industrial Production
Companies and 5511 5.2% 261 $186,900 65 117 24 207
3051 Managers
Enterprises
Scientific Research
and Development 5417 2.9% 146 $210,200 36 65 9 110
Services
Basic Chemical
3251 27.7% 56 $80,500 14 37 1 52
Manufacturing
Petroleum and Coal
51- Chemical Plant and
Products 3241 23.7% 48 $87,700 12 31 -2 40
8091 System Operators
Manufacturing
Waste Treatment and
5622 8.5% 17 $85,500 5 12 2 18
Disposal
Management of
Companies and 5511 9.0% 4,362 $100,300 1,539 2,425 647 4,611
Enterprises
13- Business Operations Aerospace Product
1199 Specialists, All Other and Parts 3364 6.6% 3,217 $125,300 1,076 1,695 99 2,871
Manufacturing
Management,
5416 5.0% 2,419 $100,400 832 1,310 217 2,359
Scientific, and
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 184
% of
NAICS Avg Ann Empl Total
SOC Occupation Alternative Industry Occ Empl Exits Transfers
Code Wages Growth Demand
Empl
Technical Consulting
Services
Other Specialty Trade
2389 28.8% 2,601 $83,000 880 1,333 140 2,353
Contractors
Operating Engineers
and Other Highway, Street, and
47- 2373 10.3% 930 $99,100 317 480 63 859
Construction Bridge Construction
2073
Equipment
Operators Executive, Legislative,
and Other General 9211 9.7% 872 $85,600 294 446 42 783
Government Support
Wholesale Trade
4251 12.3% 4,124 $99,100 1,372 2,286 68 3,726
Agents and Brokers
Sales
Grocery and Related
Representatives,
Product Merchant 4244 10.4% 3,478 $88,400 1,167 1,945 124 3,236
41- Wholesale and
Wholesalers
4012 Manufacturing,
Except Technical and Machinery,
Scientific Products Equipment, and
4238 7.6% 2,544 $77,900 829 1,381 -67 2,143
Supplies Merchant
Wholesalers
Warehousing and
4931 32.2% 5,627 $55,600 1,863 3,726 421 6,009
Storage
53- Industrial Truck and Employment
5613 6.5% 1,140 $43,800 369 739 32 1,140
7051 Tractor Operators Services
Scheduled Air
4811 4.9% 860 $71,600 276 553 10 838
Transportation
Management of
Companies and 5511 4.8% 2,824 $228,800 736 1,591 262 2,589
Enterprises
General and Restaurants and
11- 7225 3.3% 1,943 $91,700 500 1,080 126 1,706
Operations Other Eating Places
1021
Managers
Management,
Scientific, and
5416 3.3% 1,920 $201,400 504 1,089 208 1,801
Technical Consulting
Services
Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 41.8% 3,461 $122,700 876 1,095 430 2,401
Manufacturing
Management of
17-
Industrial Engineers Companies and 5511 6.8% 567 $124,100 148 185 109 441
2112
Enterprises
Architectural,
Engineering, and 5413 5.7% 476 $116,700 118 147 34 299
Related Services
Management of
17-
Petroleum Engineers Companies and 5511 44.8% 147 $155,900 29 55 14 98
2171
Enterprises
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 185
% of
NAICS Avg Ann Empl Total
SOC Occupation Alternative Industry Occ Empl Exits Transfers
Code Wages Growth Demand
Empl
Architectural,
Engineering, and 5413 21.7% 71 $137,300 14 26 4 44
Related Services
Petroleum and Coal
Products 3241 13.3% 44 $143,500 8 16 0 24
Manufacturing
Automotive Repair
8111 7.3% 1,064 $75,100 424 467 49 941
and Maintenance
First-Line
Building Equipment
Supervisors of 2382 7.0% 1,022 $93,500 402 443 21 866
49- Contractors
Mechanics,
1011
Installers, and Electric Power
Repairers Generation,
2211 5.2% 752 $143,200 297 328 22 647
Transmission and
Distribution
Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 11.8% 1,725 $73,300 682 1,084 53 1,819
Manufacturing
Production, Planning,
43- Management of
and Expediting
5061 Companies and 5511 9.1% 1,326 $72,200 539 857 123 1,520
Clerks
Enterprises
Individual and Family
6241 2.7% 398 $57,700 175 278 110 563
Services
Building Equipment
2382 73.7% 14,188 $90,800 4,875 7,977 1,291 14,143
Contractors
47- Ship and Boat
Electricians 3366 3.7% 712 $91,500 230 376 -28 579
2111 Building
Employment
5613 2.4% 468 $74,100 156 256 13 425
Services
Waste Treatment and
5622 13.7% 48 $76,600 12 32 5 49
Disposal
Pulp, Paper, and
51- Plant and System 3221 11.6% 40 $93,900 9 23 -9 24
Paperboard Mills
8099 Operators, All Other
Petroleum and Coal
Products 3241 11.2% 39 $78,200 10 25 0 35
Manufacturing
Architectural,
Engineering, and 5413 19.8% 225 $52,500 48 217 12 277
Related Services
Scientific Research
19- Chemical
and Development 5417 16.8% 191 $69,400 41 185 12 238
4031 Technicians
Services
Pharmaceutical and
Medicine 3254 6.0% 69 $58,900 15 67 6 88
Manufacturing
51- Fruit and Vegetable
3114 22.2% 1,779 $42,800 873 1,073 90 2,037
9111 Preserving and
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 186
% of
NAICS Avg Ann Empl Total
SOC Occupation Alternative Industry Occ Empl Exits Transfers
Code Wages Growth Demand
Empl
Specialty Food
Manufacturing
Packaging and Filling
Beverage
Machine Operators 3121 10.4% 832 $52,400 415 510 70 995
Manufacturing
and Tenders
Other Food
3119 8.9% 710 $43,400 373 459 144 976
Manufacturing
Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 35.9% 2,871 $74,500 1,165 1,660 89 2,913
Manufacturing
Machine Shops;
51-
Machinists Turned Product; and
4041 3327 17.0% 1,361 $62,400 559 797 79 1,435
Screw, Nut, and Bolt
Manufacturing
Ship and Boat
3366 7.1% 567 $69,400 222 317 -22 518
Building
Scientific Research
and Development 5417 19.4% 104 $123,700 23 32 7 62
Services
Architectural,
17-
Chemical Engineers Engineering, and 5413 17.5% 93 $133,700 21 29 5 55
2041
Related Services
Management of
Companies and 5511 11.0% 59 $135,100 13 18 5 37
Enterprises
Table 72: 10-year Demand in Whatcom County for Top 25 Occupations, excluding
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing, via JobsEQ.
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Petroleum
Pump System Miscellaneous
51- Operators, Nondurable
4249 0.4% 1 $87,400 0 0 0.00 1
8093 Refinery Goods Merchant
Operators, Wholesalers
and Gaugers
Grain and Oilseed
Mixing and 3112 7.2% 11 $51,900 4 7 0 11
Milling
Blending
51- Machine
Other Food
9023 Setters, 3119 6.7% 10 $46,000 4 7 1 12
Manufacturing
Operators,
and Tenders Animal Food
3111 5.3% 8 $43,200 3 5 0 9
Manufacturing
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 187
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Other Wood 3219 10.7% 55 $65,200 20 31 2 54
Product
Manufacturing
First-Line
Supervisors Seafood Product 3117 5.0% 25 $64,500 9 13 -3 19
51-
of Production Preparation and
1011
and Operating Packaging
Workers
Grocery and 4451 4.1% 21 $81,800 8 12 0 19
Convenience
Retailers
Commercial and
Industrial
Machinery and
Equipment
8113 20.9% 68 $66,600 27 31 17 74
(except
Automotive and
Electronic) Repair
Industrial and Maintenance
49-
Machinery
9041 Machinery,
Mechanics
Equipment, and
Supplies 4238 8.4% 27 $67,800 10 12 4 26
Merchant
Wholesalers
Grain and Oilseed
3112 4.6% 15 $72,600 5 6 0 12
Milling
General Freight
4841 28.8% 352 $63,800 161 211 13 386
Trucking
53- Heavy and
Specialized
3032 Tractor-Trailer 4842 11.7% 143 $63,800 65 86 5 156
Freight Trucking
Truck Drivers
Other Specialty
2389 3.7% 45 $64,400 21 27 2 50
Trade Contractors
Employment
5613 9.3% 118 $38,300 57 96 3 156
Services
Laborers and
53- Freight, Stock, Couriers and
7062 and Material Express Delivery 4921 7.3% 93 $44,500 47 80 13 140
Movers, Services
Hand
Other Wood
Product 3219 6.1% 78 $38,400 38 64 4 106
Manufacturing
Architectural,
Inspectors, Engineering, and 5413 11.2% 36 $64,200 15 26 1 43
51- Testers, Related Services
9061 Sorters,
Samplers, and
Weighers 3219 7.8% 25 $82,800 10 17 -4 23
Other Wood
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 188
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Product
Manufacturing
Medical
Equipment and
3391 5.6% 18 $48,000 7 12 -2 17
Supplies
Manufacturing
Other Specialty 2389
Trade Contractors 22.0% 262 $57,700 94 134 12 240
Residential
47- Building 2361 19.7% 235 $54,100 86 123 22 230
Construction
2061 Construction
Laborers
Nonresidential
Building 2362 18.7% 223 $62,600 80 115 14 210
Construction
Other Wood
$170,80
Product 3219 15.9% 21 5 9 0 14
0
Manufacturing
11- Industrial Grain and Oilseed $141,20
3112 5.6% 7 2 3 0 5
3051 Production Milling 0
Managers
Other Food $132,40
3119 3.4% 5 1 2 1 4
Manufacturing 0
Chemical Other Chemical
51- Plant and Product and
3259 2.6% 1 $78,400 0 0 0 1
8091 System Preparation
Operators Manufacturing
Justice, Public
Order, and Safety 9221 12.9% 131 $81,900 43 68 0 111
Activities
Colleges,
Universities, and
6113 5.5% 56 $81,900 19 30 3 52
Business Professional
13-
Operations Schools
1199
Specialists,
All Other
Executive,
Legislative, and
Other General 9211 4.2% 43 $81,900 14 23 2 38
Government
Support
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 189
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Other Specialty
2389 26.9% 81 $81,700 27 41 4 72
Trade Contractors
Operating
Executive,
Engineers and
47- Legislative, and
Other
2073 Other General 9211 12.2% 37 $85,200 12 19 1 32
Construction
Government
Equipment
Support
Operators
Utility System
2371 9.3% 28 $85,100 9 14 1 25
Construction
Machinery,
Equipment, and
Sales Supplies 4238 12.1% 97 $82,400 31 52 -4 80
Representativ Merchant
es, Wholesale Wholesalers
41- and
Grocery and
4012 Manufacturin
Related Product
g, Except 4244 7.4% 59 $91,100 20 33 2 55
Merchant
Technical and
Wholesalers
Scientific
Products Wholesale Trade
$104,90
Agents and 4251 5.8% 47 15 26 0 41
0
Brokers
Other Wood
Product 3219 15.2% 60 $42,700 20 39 3 62
Manufacturing
Industrial
53-
Truck and Warehousing and
7051 4931 10.0% 40 $51,300 13 26 3 42
Tractor Storage
Operators
Employment
5613 17 $40,400 6 11 0 17 17
Services
Restaurants and
Other Eating 7225 4.0% 60 $82,400 15 33 4 52
Places
11- General and Building
$130,50
1021 Operations Equipment 2382 2.8% 42 11 23 0 34
0
Managers Contractors
Nonresidential
$164,40
Building 2362 2.5% 37 9 20 1 30
0
Construction
Architectural,
Engineering, and 5413 11.5% 16 $97,900 4 5 1 10
Related Services
17- Industrial
2112 Engineers Medical
Equipment and
3391 8.5% 12 $91,000 3 4 2 9
Supplies
Manufacturing
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 190
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Electrical
Equipment 3353 6.4% 9 $87,900 2 3 1 6
Manufacturing
Architectural,
17- Petroleum $133,30
Engineering, and 5413 7.8% 2 0 1 0 1
2171 Engineers 0
Related Services
Building
Equipment 2382 8.8% 35 $92,900 14 15 1 30
Contractors
First-Line Automotive
49- Supervisors Repair and 8111 8.8% 35 $74,700 14 15 1 30
1011 of Mechanics, Maintenance
Installers, and
Repairers Executive,
Legislative, and
Other General 9211 5.6% 22 $90,900 9 10 1 19
Government
Support
Other Wood
Product 3219 5.7% 18 $91,900 7 11 0 18
Manufacturing
Production, Individual and
43- 6241 4.2% 13 $51,900 5 8 1 14
Planning, and Family Services
5061
Expediting
Clerks
Nonresidential
Building 2362 3.3% 10 $54,600 5 7 3 15
Construction
Building
Equipment 2382 72.0% 391 $90,700 134 219 33 386
Contractors
Nonresidential
47- Building 2362 5.2% 28 $92,600 10 16 3 29
2111 Electricians Construction
Executive,
Legislative, and
$126,40
Other General 9211 3.3% 18 6 10 0 15
0
Government
Support
Grain and Oilseed
3112 6.0% 2 $63,800 0 1 0 1
Milling
Plant and
51-
System Pulp, Paper, and
8099 3221 3.4% 1 $92,100 0 0 0 0
Operators, All Paperboard Mills
Other
Nonmetallic
Mineral Mining 2123 3.2% 1 $77,500 0 1 0 1
and Quarrying
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 191
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Architectural,
Engineering, and 5413 36.1% 18 $57,200 4 17 1 22
Related Services
Nonresidential
19-
Chemical Building 2362 2.6% 1 $68,900 0 1 0 2
4031
Technicians Construction
Colleges,
Universities, and
6113 2.1% 1 $71,800 0 1 0 1
Professional
Schools
Other Food
3119 14.2% 43 $40,900 23 28 9 60
Manufacturing
Packaging
51- and Filling
Dairy Product
9111 Machine 3115 13.6% 41 $45,300 20 25 2 46
Manufacturing
Operators and
Tenders
Grain and Oilseed
3112 13.5% 41 $47,100 20 24 0 44
Milling
Machine Shops;
Turned Product;
and Screw, Nut, 3327 30.3% 50 $56,600 20 29 3 52
and Bolt
Manufacturing
Electrical
Equipment 3353 9.9% 16 $96,900 7 9 0 16
51-
Manufacturing
4041 Machinists
Commercial and
Industrial
Machinery and
Equipment
8113 6.7% 11 $59,800 5 6 0 11
(except
Automotive and
Electronic) Repair
and Maintenance
17- Architectural,
Chemical $125,50
2041 Engineering, and 5413 12.0% 3 1 1 0 2
Engineers 0
Related Services
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 192
Table 73: 10-year Demand in Skagit County for Top 25 Occupations, excluding
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing, via JobsEQ.
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Petroleum
Petroleum and
Pump System
Petroleum
51- Operators,
Products 4249 1.5% 1 $91,100 0 0 0 1
8093 Refinery
Merchant
Operators,
Wholesalers
and Gaugers
Animal Food
3111 17.1% 9 $41,800 3 6 0 10
Mixing and Manufacturing
Blending
51- Machine Cement and
9023 Setters, Concrete Product 3273 6.0% 3 $49,300 1 2 0 3
Operators, Manufacturing
and Tenders
Other Food
3119 2.7% 2 $44,500 1 1 0 2
Manufacturing
Metalworking
Machinery 3335 14.7% 47 $82,300 17 26 -2 41
Manufacturing
First-Line
Supervisors
51- Ship and Boat
of Production 3366 6.8% 22 $80,500 8 12 -1 18
1011 Building
and Operating
Workers
Seafood Product
Preparation and 3117 6.7% 21 $66,100 7 11 -3 16
Packaging
Commercial and
Industrial
Machinery and
Equipment
8113 10.0% 15 $68,600 6 7 3 16
(except
Automotive and
Electronic) Repair
and Maintenance
Industrial
49- Metalworking
Machinery
9041 Machinery 3335 9.1% 14 $73,200 5 6 2 14
Mechanics
Manufacturing
Fruit and
Vegetable
$111,40
Preserving and 3114 8.7% 13 5 6 2 13
0
Specialty Food
Manufacturing
General Freight
4841 25.0% 184 $65,500 83 109 3 195
53- Heavy and Trucking
3032 Tractor-Trailer
Truck Drivers Specialized
Freight Trucking 4842 17.8% 130 $65,500 59 77 2 138
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 193
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Grocery and
Related Product
4244 6.0% 44 $65,500 20 26 0 47
Merchant
Wholesalers
Couriers and
Express Delivery 4921 17.2% 138 $45,500 70 118 18 206
Services
Laborers and
53- Freight, Stock, Animal
7062 and Material Slaughtering and 3116 5.7% 46 $42,800 22 38 1 61
Movers, Processing
Hand
Employment
5613 4.5% 36 $39,100 17 29 0 47
Services
Metalworking
Machinery 3335 14.7% 28 $68,000 12 20 -1 31
Manufacturing
Inspectors,
51- Testers, Architectural,
9061 Sorters, Engineering, and 5413 7.6% 15 $76,800 6 11 0 17
Samplers, and Related Services
Weighers
Animal
Slaughtering and 3116 7.0% 13 $55,200 6 10 0 16
Processing
Other Specialty 2389 20.2% 133 $57,800 47 67 3 118
Trade Contractors
47-
Construction Residential
2061 2361 20.1% 133 $54,100 48 69 10 126
Laborers Building
Construction
Nonresidential
Building 2362 15.8% 105 $62,700 37 53 4 95
Construction
Metalworking
$128,40
Machinery 3335 19.3% 17 4 7 -1 10
0
Manufacturing
Ship and Boat $139,00
3366 4.3% 4 1 2 0 2
Building 0
11- Industrial
3051 Production
Managers Ventilation,
Heating, Air-
Conditioning, and
$139,00
Commercial 3334 4.2% 4 1 2 0 3
0
Refrigeration
Equipment
Manufacturing
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 194
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Basic Chemical
2351 17.8% 1 $81,800 0 1 0 1
Manufacturing
Chemical
51- Plant and
8091 System
Operators Other Chemical
Product and
3259 11.0% 1 $81,800 0 1 0 1
Preparation
Manufacturing
Executive,
Legislative, and
Other General 9211 5.7% 25 $88,000 8 13 0 22
Government
Business Support
13-
Operations
1199
Specialists,
Insurance Carriers 5241 5.0% 22 $92,400 8 12 1 21
All Other
Administration of
Environmental 9241 4.9% 22 $88,000 7 11 0 18
Quality Programs
Other Specialty
2389 21.8% 39 $89,500 13 20 1 34
Trade Contractors
Operating
Highway, Street,
Engineers and $106,80
47- and Bridge 2373 20.3% 36 12 19 1 32
Other 0
2073 Construction
Construction
Equipment Executive,
Operators Legislative, and
Other General 9211 13.1% 23 $96,000 8 12 0 20
Government
Support
Grocery and
Related Product
4244 14.8% 64 $92,800 21 35 1 57
Sales Merchant
Representativ Wholesalers
es, Wholesale
Machinery,
41- and
Equipment, and
4012 Manufacturin
Supplies 4238 7.2% 31 $83,900 10 17 -2 25
g, Except
Merchant
Technical and
Wholesalers
Scientific
Products Metalworking
$106,00
Machinery 3335 5.8% 25 8 13 -1 21
0
Manufacturing
53- Sawmills and
Industrial
7051 Wood 3211 11.7% 26 $49,200 8 17 0 25
Truck and
Preservation
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 195
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Tractor
Operators Warehousing and 4931 10.0% 22 $56,500 7 15 1 23
Storage
Veneer, Plywood,
and Engineered
3212 7.5% 17 $52,600 5 11 0 16
Wood Product
Manufacturing
Restaurants and
Other Eating 7225 4.1% 32 $85,900 8 18 1 27
Places
11- General and Building
$136,00
1021 Operations Equipment 2382 3.1% 25 6 13 -1 18
0
Managers Contractors
Metalworking
$149,00
Machinery 3335 3.0% 24 6 13 -1 18
0
Manufacturing
Metalworking
Machinery 3335 18.2% 15 $80,900 4 5 1 9
Manufacturing
Ventilation,
Heating, Air-
Conditioning, and
17- Industrial Commercial 3334 8.6% 7 $95,800 2 2 1 5
2112 Engineers Refrigeration
Equipment
Manufacturing
Aerospace $105,30
3364 7.8% 6 2 2 1 4
Product and Parts 0
Manufacturing
17- Petroleum
— — — — — — — — —
2171 Engineers
Automotive
Repair and 8111 9.1% 22 $75,900 9 9 0 18
Maintenance
First-Line Building
49- Supervisors Equipment 2382 7.4% 18 $94,500 7 8 0 14
1011 of Mechanics, Contractors
Installers, and
Repairers
Automobile 4411 7.0% 17 $99,900 7 7 0 14
Dealers
43- Metalworking
Production,
5061 Machinery 3335 6.6% 12 $63,600 5 7 0 11
Planning, and
Manufacturing
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 196
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Expediting
Ship and Boat
Clerks 3366 5.0% 9 $64,600 3 5 -1 8
Building
General Medical
and Surgical 6221 3.6% 6 $64,600 3 4 0 7
Hospitals
Building
Equipment 2382 82.0% 438 $98,200 148 243 27 418
Contractors
47-
Ship and Boat
2111 Electricians 3366 3.7% 20 $98,700 6 10 -1 16
Building
Nonresidential
$100,20
Building 2362 2.5% 13 5 7 1 13
0
Construction
Plant and
51-
System
8099 — — — — — — — — —
Operators, All
Other
Architectural,
5413 35.4% 8 $45,400 2 7 0 9
Engineering, and
Related Services
Scientific
19- Research and
Chemical 5417 15.2% 3 $60,000 1 3 0 4
4031 Development
Technicians
Services
Basic Chemical
3251 5.2% 1 $55,000 0 1 0 1
Manufacturing
Animal
Slaughtering and 3116 19.5% 28 $41,900 13 17 1 31
Processing
Packaging
Fruit and
51- and Filling
Vegetable
9111 Machine 3114 15.9% 23 $44,400 11 13 0 24
Preserving and
Operators and
Specialty Food
Tenders
Manufacturing
Seafood Product
Preparation and 3117 14.1% 20 $37,500 9 11 -2 18
Packaging
51- Metalworking
4041 Machinists Machinery 3335 60.1% 146 $64,600 57 82 -5 134
Manufacturing
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 197
% of Avg
Alternative NAICS Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Employment Ann Exits Transfers
Industry Code Growth Demand
Employment Wages
Machine Shops;
Turned Product;
3327 10.7% 26 $64,200 10 15 0 26
and Screw, Nut,
and Bolt
Manufacturing
Ship and Boat 3366 5.3% 13 $66,100 5 7 -1 12
Building
Scientific
Research and $112,20
5417 21.3% 2 0 1 0 1
Development 0
Services
17-
Chemical $122,00
2041 Basic Chemical 3251 9.8% 1 0 0 0 1
Engineers 0
Manufacturing
Other Chemical
Product and $122,00
3259 6.1% 1 0 0 0 0
Preparation 0
Manufacturing
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 198
Table 74: 10-year Demand in Pierce County for Top 25 Occupations, excluding
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing, via JobsEQ.
% of
Alternative NAICS Employme Avg Ann Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Exits Transfers
Industry Code nt Wages Growth Demand
Employment
Other Pipeline
4869 7.3% 7 $87,100 2 5 0 7
Transportation
Petroleum
Pump
Petroleum and
System
51- Petroleum 4247 1.6% 2 $89,900 0 1 0 1
Operators,
8093 Products Merchant
Refinery
Wholesalers
Operators,
and Gaugers Miscellaneous
Nondurable Goods
4249 1.2% 1 $89,900 0 1 0 1
Merchant
Wholesalers
Cement and
Concrete Product 3273 19.2% 43 $55,600 15 28 0 43
Manufacturing
Mixing and
Other Food
Blending 3119 7.3% 16 $50,800 6 11 2 19
Manufacturing
51- Machine
9023 Setters, Resin, Synthetic
Operators, Rubber, and
and Tenders Artificial and
3252 5.4% 12 $55,600 4 8 0 13
Synthetic Fibers
and Filaments
Manufacturing
Grocery and
Convenience 4451 5.4% 59 $76,900 21 33 0 54
First-Line Retailers
Supervisors
of
51- Plastics Product
Production 3261 4.7% 52 $69,700 19 30 3 52
1011 Manufacturing
and
Operating
Workers Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 4.3% 47 $94,800 17 27 3 48
Manufacturing
Commercial and
Industrial
Machinery and
Equipment (except 8113 21.9% 157 $65,700 63 72 41 177
Automotive and
Electronic) Repair
Industrial and Maintenance
49-
Machinery
9041 Machinery,
Mechanics
Equipment, and
4238 7.9% 56 $66,900 22 25 10 57
Supplies Merchant
Wholesalers
Pulp, Paper, and
3221 3.8% 27 $87,600 9 11 -2 19
Paperboard Mills
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 199
% of
Alternative NAICS Employme Avg Ann Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Exits Transfers
Industry Code nt Wages Growth Demand
Employment
General Freight
4841 35.7% 2,036 $64,200 937 1,229 102 2,269
Trucking
Heavy and
53-
Tractor- Specialized Freight
3032 4842 10.3% 585 $64,200 269 353 29 651
Trailer Truck Trucking
Drivers
Warehousing and
4931 6.5% 370 $62,600 188 246 102 536
Storage
Warehousing and
4931 24.8% 1,785 $48,100 931 1,571 333 2,835
Storage
Laborers and
Freight,
53-
Stock, and Employment
7062 5613 16.1% 1,163 $38,800 567 958 43 1,568
Material Services
Movers,
Hand Couriers and
Express Delivery 4921 11.8% 854 $45,100 440 742 135 1,316
Services
Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 11.4% 102 $89,400 44 76 7 127
Inspectors, Manufacturing
Testers,
51-
Sorters, Employment
9061 5613 10.0% 89 $49,400 38 66 3 107
Samplers, Services
and
Weighers
Warehousing and
4931 7.1% 63 $61,800 28 48 5 81
Storage
Other Specialty
2389 23.7% 928 $60,400 334 478 60 872
Trade Contractors
47- Residential
Construction
2061 Building 2361 16.4% 642 $56,500 236 337 71 644
Laborers
Construction
Utility System
2371 13.8% 541 $62,700 194 277 27 498
Construction
Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 11.2% 33 $163,000 8 15 2 25
Manufacturing
11- Industrial Plastics Product
3261 4.8% 14 $130,600 4 6 1 11
3051 Production Manufacturing
Managers
Cement and
Concrete Product 3273 4.4% 13 $143,100 3 6 0 9
Manufacturing
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 200
% of
Alternative NAICS Employme Avg Ann Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Exits Transfers
Industry Code nt Wages Growth Demand
Employment
Resin, Synthetic
Rubber, and
Artificial and
3252 38.3% 11 $82,100 3 7 0 9
Synthetic Fibers
and Filaments
Manufacturing
Chemical
51- Plant and Basic Chemical
8091 System 3251 10.6% 3 $82,100 1 2 0 3
Manufacturing
Operators
Waste Treatment
5622 6.8% 2 $83,700 1 1 0 2
and Disposal
National Security
and International 9281 14.2% 524 $94,800 173 273 5 452
Affairs
Management,
Scientific, and
Business
13- Technical 5416 4.4% 162 $106,900 56 88 17 161
Operations
1199 Consulting
Specialists,
Services
All Other
Executive,
Legislative, and
Other General 9211 4.3% 159 $94,800 53 84 6 144
Government
Support
Other Specialty
2389 29.1% 325 $84,700 110 167 19 296
Trade Contractors
Operating
Engineers
47-
and Other Utility System
2073 2371 18.9% 212 $88,200 72 108 11 191
Construction Construction
Equipment
Operators Highway, Street,
and Bridge 2373 10.2% 114 $101,100 39 59 8 105
Construction
Grocery and
Sales Related Product
4244 14.8% 431 $82,200 145 242 19 406
Representati Merchant
ves, Wholesalers
Wholesale
Lumber and Other
41- and
Construction
4012 Manufacturi
Materials 4233 9.8% 284 $82,200 95 158 5 257
ng, Except
Merchant
Technical
Wholesalers
and
Scientific Wholesale Trade
Products Agents and 4251 8.7% 254 $94,100 85 141 6 232
Brokers
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 201
% of
Alternative NAICS Employme Avg Ann Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Exits Transfers
Industry Code nt Wages Growth Demand
Employment
Warehousing and
4931 57.5% 1,449 $52,900 482 964 124 1,570
Storage
Industrial
53- Employment
Truck and 5613 6.8% 171 $41,600 56 111 6 173
7051 Services
Tractor
Operators
Grocery and
Related Product
4244 3.0% 77 $51,500 25 50 3 78
Merchant
Wholesalers
Restaurants and
Other Eating 7225 4.3% 216 $99,400 56 121 17 193
Places
11- General and Office
1021 Operations Administrative 5611 3.4% 174 $147,800 48 104 41 194
Managers Services
Building Equipment
2382 2.6% 134 $157,400 34 73 3 110
Contractors
Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 27.3% 103 $121,800 26 33 17 76
Manufacturing
Architectural,
17- Industrial
Engineering, and 5413 6.5% 24 $115,700 6 8 2 16
2112 Engineers
Related Services
Plastics Product
3261 4.5% 17 $99,300 4 5 3 12
Manufacturing
Architectural,
Engineering, and 5413 20.3% 4 $134,700 1 1 0 2
Related Services
Management of
Companies and 5511 7.3% 1 $153,000 0 0 0 1
17- Petroleum
Enterprises
2171 Engineers
Management,
Scientific, and
Technical 5416 4.5% 1 $125,100 0 0 0 1
Consulting
Services
First-Line Automotive Repair
8111 9.5% 135 $74,300 54 60 7 121
49- Supervisors and Maintenance
1011 of
Mechanics, Building Equipment
Installers, 2382 7.6% 109 $92,500 43 47 3 93
Contractors
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 202
% of
Alternative NAICS Employme Avg Ann Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Exits Transfers
Industry Code nt Wages Growth Demand
Employment
and
Repairers
Automobile
4411 7.1% 101 $97,800 40 44 4 88
Dealers
Warehousing and
4931 8.7% 99 $55,200 43 69 27 140
Storage
Production,
Individual and
43- Planning, 6241 4.6% 52 $58,100 23 37 15 75
Family Services
5061 and
Expediting
Clerks
Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 4.5% 51 $73,900 21 33 3 57
Manufacturing
Building Equipment
2382 75.4% 1,354 $89,800 467 763 131 1,361
Contractors
47-
2111 Electricians Employment
5613 3.9% 70 $73,300 23 38 3 64
Services
Utility System
2371 3.1% 56 $92,100 20 32 7 59
Construction
Waste Treatment
5622 14.1% 5 $75,800 1 4 0 5
and Disposal
Plant and
51- Cement and
System
8099 Concrete Product 3273 9.9% 4 $78,200 1 2 0 3
Operators,
Manufacturing
All Other
Pulp, Paper, and
3221 9.0% 3 $93,000 1 2 -1 2
Paperboard Mills
Architectural,
5413 17.9% 13 $48,500 3 13 1 16
Engineering, and
Related Services
Resin, Synthetic
19-
Chemical Rubber, and
4031
Technicians Artificial and 3252 12.4% 9 $55,000 2 9 0 11
Synthetic Fibers
and Filaments
Manufacturing
Employment
5613 5.2% 4 $42,500 1 4 0 5
Services
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 203
% of
Alternative NAICS Employme Avg Ann Empl Total
SOC Occupation Occupation Exits Transfers
Industry Code nt Wages Growth Demand
Employment
Employment
5613 15.0% 69 $35,200 34 41 3 78
Services
Packaging
51- and Filling
Other Food
9111 Machine 3119 14.8% 68 $42,500 36 44 15 95
Manufacturing
Operators
and Tenders
Bakeries and
Tortilla 3118 8.2% 38 $41,700 19 23 4 46
Manufacturing
Machine Shops;
Turned Product;
and Screw, Nut, 3327 21.1% 93 $63,700 38 54 6 99
and Bolt
Manufacturing
51-
4041 Machinists Aerospace Product
and Parts 3364 19.4% 85 $76,100 35 50 5 91
Manufacturing
Metalworking
Machinery 3335 8.7% 38 $64,200 15 22 0 37
Manufacturing
Resin, Synthetic
Rubber, and
Artificial and
3252 20.3% 7 $115,100 2 2 1 5
Synthetic Fibers
and Filaments
Manufacturing
17-
Chemical
2041 Architectural,
Engineers
Engineering, and 5413 14.2% 5 $119,500 1 1 0 3
Related Services
National Security
9281 5.8% 2 $115,100 0 1 0 1
and International
Affairs
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 204
Appendix D: Letter from the Swinomish Indian Tribal
Community
See next page
WWU CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & BUSINESS RESEARCH | WASHINGTON STATE REFINERY ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 205
December 18, 2024
Shannon Pressler
WA Department of Commerce
1011 Plum Street SE
P.O. Box 42525
Olympia, WA 98504-2525
Re: Refinery Impacts to Swinomish Indian Tribal Community
Dear Ms. Pressler:
The Swinomish Indian Tribal Community (“Swinomish” or “the Tribe”) appreciates the
opportunity to provide input for the Washington Refinery Study conducted by the Department of
Commerce and Western Washington University. Swinomish is heavily impacted by the existence
and operation of multiple refineries on lands surrounding the Salish Sea and we believe this study
is an excellent opportunity to take a hard look at the complex and nuanced impacts, both beneficial
and detrimental, direct and indirect, of the refineries on Swinomish.
Historical Context
The Swinomish Tribe is a present day successor in interest to the tribes and bands that
signed the 1855 Treaty of Point Elliott ("Treaty") with the United States, which established the
Swinomish Reservation. Approximately one hundred years later, two refineries were constructed
on March Point, within Swinomish’s Treaty-reserved homeland. The refineries, which have
subsequently had a number of owners and operators, are now owned and operated by Marathon
Petroleum Corporation and by HF Sinclair Corporation.
These refineries were built in an era and world that is vastly different from today. The
Federal government’s policy at the time was to terminate the existence of Federally-recognized
Tribes and to dismantle their sovereignty, self-governance, community, culture and land base.
Federal environmental protection at the time was limited, predating the Clean Water Act and other
bedrock environmental statutes.
STC Comments Re Refinery Project 12/18/2024
Page 2 of 9
On the state level, the State of Washington persisted in refusing to recognize that Federal
treaties with Indian Tribes were and remained the supreme law of the land. It was not until decades
after the refineries were built that Judge Boldt reaffirmed the continuing vitality of the treaties,
including the Treaty of Point Elliott. United States v. Washington, 459 F. Supp. 1020, 1049 (1975).
It was then more than a decade after that when the State formally acknowledged its government-
to-government relationship with Washington Tribes in the Centennial Accord.
In this context of formal Federal and State policies explicitly hostile to Washington Tribes,
it is no surprise that the refineries on the Salish Sea were not the product of consultation, let alone
collaboration, with the affected tribes by their Federal trustee, State and local governments, or the
businesses that conceived of and built the refineries. As a result, despite the explicit recognition
of the Swinomish Reservation in the 1855 Treaty, despite the proximity of the refineries to the
Swinomish Village and to traditional Swinomish fishing grounds, and despite the scale and
foreseeable impacts of the refineries and of accompanying industrial activities, the refineries were
not the product of consultation or Tribal consent.
Nonetheless, in subsequent years Swinomish has adapted as much as possible to the
presence of the refineries and their accompanying industrial infrastructure. Swinomish also
recognizes that there are, as discussed below, benefits brought by the refineries, their employees
and contractors. However, the benefits do not alter the fact that Swinomish did not have a role in
determining whether these large-scale industrial facilities would be located in its homeland and
adjacent to its waters. In this, the ongoing presence of the industrial facilities stands as a stark
reminder of the lack of respect and concern for Tribal homelands, Treaty resources and Tribal
sovereignty and self-determination at the time of the refineries’ construction.
However, past wrongs need not be perpetuated. The March Point refineries have new
operators, and this presents an opportunity to demonstrate respect for the Tribe’s sovereignty, self-
determination, homeland and Treaty rights and resources. Indeed, the operators of the March Point
refineries initiated outreach to Swinomish when they recently acquired their facilities, and have
continued active communications with Swinomish in the years since. From these beginnings there
is an opportunity for increasing respect and trust, as well as cooperation to increase the beneficial
impacts of the refineries, reduce their detrimental impacts, and address concerns, challenges and
opportunities shared by Swinomish and the neighboring refineries.
Beneficial Refinery Impacts
Swinomish operates a number of economic enterprises in the vicinity of the two March
Point refineries operated by Marathon and HF Sinclair. The refineries have direct and indirect
positive economic impacts for Swinomish. At the highest and broadest level, the refineries
generate income streams that are disbursed throughout the local and regional economy, providing
STC Comments Re Refinery Project 12/18/2024
Page 3 of 9
financial resources that may then find their way, directly or indirectly, to support Swinomish
businesses.
Refinery employees and contractors, their families, and friends are important customers
and guests at three Swinomish markets and gas stations, as well as the Swinomish Casino & Lodge,
Swinomish Golf Links, and Swinomish retail tobacco and coffee shops. Swinomish Shellfish
Company oysters are sold at Swinomish markets and at a pop-up bar adjacent to the Swinomish
market closest to the refineries. Refinery employees, contractors and families also are among
potential customers at seasonal fireworks retailers operated by individual Swinomish Tribal
members and their families on Tribal land not far from the refineries, further diversifying the
Swinomish economy.
The refineries’ economic impacts at Swinomish increase seasonally in a predictable and
financially important cycle. During “turnaround” work on a refinery, contractors and their
employees live and work in the local area for an extended period of time, and Swinomish
businesses observe increased customers and a positive financial impact while the turnaround
contractors and employees are present. Year round, business visitors to the refineries and their
local contractors also may stay overnight at the Swinomish Lodge.
The refineries themselves generate business, directly and indirectly, for the Swinomish
Casino and Golf Links. Direct economic impacts arise from refinery banquets at the Swinomish
Lodge and refinery use of Swinomish catering services. Indirect economic impacts generated by
refinery employees or business visitors include enjoying lunch at the Casino, playing golf after
work, in a league or by hosting outings at Swinomish Golf Links.
Over the decades, the refineries and their contractors have provided employment
opportunities to Swinomish Tribal members. Some of this work is year-round, and some is
seasonal employment for turnaround contractors. Such locally-available employment paying
competitive wages brings important financial resources to Swinomish families and helps to further
diversify the Swinomish economy.
The proximity of a local refinery supplier to the Swinomish fuel markets can reduce
greenhouse gas and other emissions from transporting refined product to the markets for retail sale
to customers, and may as well reduce financial costs incurred in transporting fuel for sale.
The resulting financial benefits from these relationships to Swinomish economic
enterprises are particularly important because the enterprises’ financial return to the Tribe helps
support essential Swinomish governmental services to the Reservation, such as law enforcement,
environmental protection and land management. The enterprises also support important
Swinomish governmental programs that have been developed to help address disparities in areas
STC Comments Re Refinery Project 12/18/2024
Page 4 of 9
such as health and education that disproportionately affect Swinomish and other indigenous
communities. Given limitations on tribal tax jurisdiction, the role played by Swinomish enterprises
in supporting Swinomish self-government is critical.
In addition to these business relationships, refinery sponsorship of the Swinomish Boys &
Girls Club’s annual golf tournaments helps support services to youth in the Swinomish Village.
In the absence of the March Point refineries, Swinomish enterprises and the governmental services
and programs they support would not enjoy their current level of operations.
Detrimental Refinery Impacts
There are inevitably costs and risks that accompany the benefits and successes that are
supported by the local refineries. Like the benefits outlined above, the costs and risks are complex
and nuanced, direct and indirect, obvious and subtle. These detrimental impacts are not abstract
but intensely local – refineries are located within the Swinomish Treaty Reservation and homeland.
The impacts are and will be enduring – Swinomish members have lived in this area since time
immemorial and expect to continue to do so for many, many generations into the future.
One of the core rights recognized and guaranteed by the Treaty is the Tribe's right to fish
in the Tribe’s adjudicated Usual and Accustomed fishing areas in and around the Salish Sea. United
States v. Washington, 459 F. Supp. 1020, 1049 (1975). Those Usual and Accustomed fishing areas
are not only adjacent to the March Point refineries but encompass four of the five refineries in the
state. Any oil spill or other incident at or adjacent to any one of those facilities, or during the
conveyance of crude oil or refined product to or from any of those facilities, could have potentially
devastating impacts on the ability of members of the Swinomish community to exercise the Tribe’s
Treaty reserved right to fish.
Additionally, the two refineries located on March Point pose ongoing risks to the
Reservation and the Swinomish community. Those risks are very real, with spills from train
derailment (BNSF derailment occurring on an easement across the Swinomish Reservation) and
pipelines (Olympic Pipeline Gasoline Spill) happening within the last two years and an unplanned
flare from one refinery in 2015 resulting in more than 500 reports of injuries to those on and near
the Swinomish Reservation.
In order to guard against those risks, Swinomish expends substantial financial and staff
resources. Several Swinomish employees are tasked specifically with emergency management and
response as their full-time jobs while biologists, health workers, construction experts, lawyers and
other specialists are tasked with attending to a wide range of impacts from the refineries. There
are few activities of the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community that are not touched in some way by
the reality of the nearby refineries.
STC Comments Re Refinery Project 12/18/2024
Page 5 of 9
Swinomish is impacted, directly and indirectly, by the refineries in at least the following
ways:
Vessels:
Vessel Traffic - More than 27% of Tribal Usual and Accustomed areas for fishing are
occupied by shipping lanes and anchorages. Vessels from refineries on the Salish Sea
account for a significant portion of that traffic and the majority of vessels at anchor.
Anchorages occur almost exclusively within productive crab habitat, preventing those
areas from being utilized by Tribal members exercising Treaty fishing rights.
Vessel Destruction of Fishing Gear - For years Swinomish Tribal members exercising their
Treaty-reserved fishing rights have experienced persistent loss or destruction of their
valuable fishing gear by vessels operating in the Tribe’s Usual and Accustomed fishing
areas. Such gear loss impacts Tribal fishers and their families directly when new
replacement gear must be purchased, and indirectly when catch is foregone because gear
has been lost. Tribal staff and leadership are continuing their years-long efforts to address
gear loss.
Vessel Spill Risk - Shipping Crude Oil and Refined product by vessel accounts for a major
risk to the Salish Sea. An allision or collision resulting in an oil spill has the potential to
devastate the Salish Sea, decimate populations of fish, crab and other shellfish, and marine
mammals, and severely impact Swinomish lands. James Stronach & Aurelien Hospital,
The Implementation of Molecular Diffusion to Simulate the Fate and Behavior Modeling
of a Diluted Bitumen Oil Spill and Its Application to Stochastic Modelling, Conference
Paper, (June 2014) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/274083520; Julann A
Spromberg, Sarah E. Allan & Nathaniel L. Scholz, Potential Population-level impacts of
future oil spills on Pacific Herring Stocks in Puget Sound, Human and Ecological Risk
Assessment Vol. 30 Nos. 1-2 (February 19, 2024)
https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2023.2301529. Impacts on marine Treaty resources in
turn impact Swinomish community members and their families, as well as the economic,
cultural and social life of the community as a whole.
Bunkering risks - The most common fuel and oil spills occur during bunkering. While
vessels are being fueled, it is not uncommon for small amounts of fuel and oil to spill into
the water. These minor spills impact local habitat and species and their impacts can be
cumulative over time, depending on the types of product involved. National Research
Council, Oil in the Sea III: Inputs, Fates, and Effects, 134 (2003)
http://nap.edu/catalog/10388.html. Again, such cumulative harm to marine Treaty
resources in turn impacts Swinomish community members, their families and the broader
Swinomish community.
Vessel Noise - Noise from vessels transporting crude oil or refined products disturbs the
local ecosystem and impacts several endangered species including Southern Resident
Killer Whales. Simone Cominelli et. al., Noise Exposure from Commercial Shipping for
the Southern Resident Killer Whale Population, Marine Pollution Bulletin 136 (2018) 177-
STC Comments Re Refinery Project 12/18/2024
Page 6 of 9
200 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.050. Swinomish Tribal members diving
to exercise Treaty fishing rights have first-hand experience with the noise generated by
vessel traffic.
Vessel Emissions - While underway, at a berth, or at anchor, vessels rely entirely on fossil
fuels for their power. They do not connect to local electricity at any point. This continual
burning of fossil fuels is a major contributor to the release of greenhouse gasses, associated
impacts, and to the degradation of local air quality. Naya Olmer et. al., Greenhouse Gas
Emissions from Global Shipping, 2013-2015, The International Council of Clean
Transportation (October 2017) https://theicct.org/publication/greenhouse-gas-emissions-
from-global-shipping-2013-2015/; Cesar Ducruet et. al., Ports and their Influence on Local
Air Pollution and Public Health: A Global Analysis, Science of the Total Environment
Volume 915 (March 2024) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170099
Rail:
More than a century ago, a rail line was constructed across the Swinomish Reservation and
utilized for about one hundred years without the consent of the Tribe or the United States.
As a result, the Tribe and U.S. were required to pursue litigation in Federal Court to
vindicate the Tribe’s ownership of the burdened land and to obtain compensation for use
of the land for the rail line.
Derailment Risk - Derailment of a train poses serious risk to the Swinomish Tribe as the
railway used to transport crude oil and other chemicals to the March Point refineries passes
through the Swinomish Reservation and very closely to Swinomish’s economic
development area including its Casino & Lodge, RV park, and retail stores. Derailment is
an ongoing concern to Casino & Lodge management. Guests at the Swinomish Casino &
Lodge occasionally comment on the derailment risk, and guests at the RV park stay
immediately adjacent to the tracks and are impacted by the noise of moving trains. The
local railway also crosses the Swinomish Channel and over a portion of Padilla Bay.
Derailments can be relatively minor, as was the case when a train derailed on the
Swinomish Reservation in March of 2023 and released around 2,100 gallons of diesel fuel,
or they can be catastrophic as has been the case multiple times in Washington State, the
United States and Canada. A catastrophic derailment on the Swinomish Reservation could
result in injury or worse for guests and staff at the Swinomish RV park immediately
adjacent to the rail line or at the nearby Swinomish Casino & Lodge, as well as damage to
and closure of these and other Swinomish commercial ventures in the area for weeks,
months or longer. Such business interruption has the potential to significantly damage the
Swinomish economy, and therefore the Swinomish governmental services and programs
the Tribe’s commercial ventures support, and the community members and Reservation
residents who benefit from those programs and services. A catastrophic derailment into
the Swinomish Channel or Skagit River could inundate not only the Channel, River and
adjacent shorelines with oil, but also more distant areas impacted by spilled fluids swiftly
transported by the strong tidal currents in the area, including the Swinomish Reservation’s
shorelines, the Swinomish Village, the Swinomish Casino & Lodge, the Swinomish Clam
STC Comments Re Refinery Project 12/18/2024
Page 7 of 9
Garden, and important cultural areas such as Lone Tree Point and Kukutali Preserve. On a
broader scale, railways for refineries on the Puget Sound are regularly located along and
crossing waterways and on the shores of the Salish Sea. Derailments and spills into those
waters with their strong and fast tidal currents would also dramatically impact and alter
where Swinomish members could fish.
Bay Access and Land Use Optimization - The presence of the railway impedes direct
terrestrial access to Padilla Bay from the adjacent lands of the Swinomish Reservation, and
prevents the Tribe’s optimal utilization of those lands as part of its economic enterprises.
Swinomish Channel - In order for the railway to reach the March Point Refineries, it must
cross the Swinomish Channel. To do so, the railroad constructed a swing bridge, now many
decades old. This bridge severely limits Swinomish fishing and Fisheries Enforcement
vessels traveling through the Swinomish Channel when it is “closed” and only allows free
access when it is opened. This bridge is a major impediment to Swinomish fishers,
particularly with the very short windows for fishing that are common for Swinomish
fisheries. Delays in accessing waters north of the Swinomish Channel reduce the time that
fishers can actually engage in Treaty fishing. For instance, if fishing for shrimp is opened
for four hours north of the Channel but fishers are delayed for an hour by the closure of the
swing bridge, the time available for fishing is reduced by 25%. Such travel delays and
reduced fishing opportunity have a direct and significant impact on Treaty fishing income
to the fishers and their families. Similarly, the swing bridge is a major potential point of
failure both from a mechanical standpoint and from a human error standpoint. Any failure
of the swing bridge has the potential to cause a catastrophic derailment into the Swinomish
Channel.
Train Emissions - Trains burn fossil fuels and contribute to the increase in greenhouse
gases and climate change from which the Swinomish Tribe is experiencing significant
impacts. Train emissions also degrade the local air quality resulting in health impacts to
community members. Technology Assessment: Freight Locomotives, California EPA, Air
Resources Board (November 2016)
https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/tech/techreport/final_rail_tech_assessment_11282016.pd
f
Viewshed – As noted above, the railway was installed in the late 1800s, over the objections
of the Swinomish Tribe and the United States, along the shores of Padilla and Fidalgo Bays.
Both of those bays have significant cultural importance to the Swinomish people and
commercial importance as they provide the main view for the Swinomish Lodge and
nearby RV park. While some guests may enjoy watching trains, the regular presence of
trains traveling to and from the refineries impedes and impairs the viewshed of those two
bays significantly.
Pipeline:
STC Comments Re Refinery Project 12/18/2024
Page 8 of 9
Decades ago, pipelines for petroleum product transport were constructed across the
Swinomish Reservation without the consent of the Tribe or the United States. As a result,
the Tribe and U.S. were required to pursue litigation in Federal Court to vindicate the
Tribe’s ownership of the burdened land and to obtain compensation for use of the land for
the pipelines.
Pipeline Spill Risk- When pipelines spill it is more difficult to both detect and stop those
spills than other methods of transporting oil. Mutiu Adesina Adegboye, Wai-Keung Fung
& Aditya Karnik, Recent Advances in Pipeline Monitoring and Oil Leakage Detection
Technologies: Principles and Approaches, Sensors 2019 (June 4, 2019)
https://doi.org/10.3390/s19112548. Remediation of underground pipeline spills requires
far more effort and land disturbance than spills to the surface. Most recently, the Olympic
pipeline spilled near the Swinomish Reservation in December of 2023. The Swinomish
Tribe exerted months of effort as part of the remediation and restoration team, a process
that continues even today. Three separate pipelines cross the Swinomish Reservation and
Swinomish Channel, carrying refined product from the refineries. A spill from any of those
pipelines would impact the Reservation and could result in the disruption or closure of the
nearby Swinomish Casino & Lodge, the RV park, and several Swinomish owned retail
stores. A pipeline spill into the Channel would result in the impacts described in connection
with a derailment of rail cars and spill into the Channel.
Pipeline Presence – Just like the rail line, the continuing presence of three pipelines built
across the Swinomish Reservation without the Tribe’s consent precludes the Swinomish
Tribe from utilizing its land above and adjacent to those pipelines and effectively reduces
Swinomish’s total usable land. In this, the continuing presence of the pipelines diminishes
the land base reserved by the Tribe for its own use in the Treaty of Point Elliott.
Refineries:
Refinery Operations - Refineries are inherently dangerous and large industrial plants. The
location of two refineries on March Point poses a significant threat to the Swinomish Tribal
members, to the Reservation, and to guests and staff of Swinomish economic enterprises.
Industrial accidents can and do occur which result in impacts to neighboring communities.
For instance, the 2010 explosion and fire at the Tesoro Anacortes Refinery killed 7 workers
at the refinery and released chemicals into the air which sickened those nearby, including
Tribal members. In 2015, an unexpected flare sickened more than 500 on and near the
Swinomish Reservation, including Tribal members. Additionally, populations living
within 10 miles of refineries experience increased risk of multiple types of cancer – and
the entirety of the Swinomish Reservation is within 10 miles of both the March Point
refineries. Stephen B. Williams, et. al., Proximity to Oil Refineries and Risk of Cancer: A
population Based Analysis, JNCI Cancer Spectrum, Volume 4 Issue 6 (October 7, 2020)
https://doi.org/10.1093/jncics/pkaa088
Refinery Emissions and products - Refinery operations and the use of refinery products
release greenhouse gases contributing to climate change and degrading local air quality.
Refinery emissions pose potential health risks to the Reservation population, Swinomish
STC Comments Re Refinery Project 12/18/2024
Page 9 of 9
business guests and employees, and the Swinomish Shellfish Company aquaculture
operation in Similk Bay, located directly south of the refineries. Indeed, odors from the
refinery can be detected at times by Shellfish Company staff. Some guests at the Casino
& Lodge do not like the proximity of the refineries, concerned that they are polluting.
Viewshed - The March Point refineries are located on the shores of Padilla and Fidalgo
bays, and their infrastructure physically dominates the area. The refineries are visible from
the Swinomish Links Golf course, and from some locations at the Swinomish Casino &
Lodge. Like the rail line, the presence of extremely large industrial plants on these waters
severely degrades the viewshed of the area.
Refinery Presence Precludes Land Use - The March Point refineries are located on lands
that are part of the Swinomish Treaty Reservation that were illegally occupied by non-
tribal settlers and then purportedly severed from the Reservation by an Executive Order.
Those lands were important areas for traditional food production, including camas
propagation and harvesting, and for cultural practices. The presence of the refineries
precludes access to and use of the land for those purposes and has potentially permanently
eliminated those lands for food production purposes.
Future Refinery Impacts
The March Point refineries could provide opportunities for a greater sharing of their
benefits with the Swinomish Tribe and its members, and for reducing their risks and detrimental
impacts on the Tribe, its members, resources and Reservation. In addition, as the larger economy
transitions to address global warming, there may be opportunities for achieving some degree of
historical justice as refineries transition, downsize or close. The lands that now support the
refineries will remain should operations cease. It could bring Swinomish a measure of historical
justice and an opportunity to create its own, alternative future, to have those lands returned to
Tribal ownership as the Treaty provided in 1855.
Thank you again for this opportunity to participate in evaluating the future of refineries in
Washington. We look forward to further discussions on the impacts to the Swinomish Indian Tribal
Community from Oil Refineries and their operations and the myriad options for the future. If you
have any questions about these comments or would like to discuss them, please do not hesitate to
contact me.
Sincerely,
Steve Edwards, Chairman
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