Central Virginia Rail Economic Development Study (House Document No. 15, 2024)
Summary
Report of the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation to the Governor and the General Assembly of Virginia, titled Central Virginia Rail Economic Development Study and dated December 2024. It was prepared for the department by STV Inc. The study states that its objective is to evaluate and prioritize freight and passenger rail-centric opportunity concepts that may yield long-term regional economic growth in the Lynchburg region of Central Virginia. It develops and investigates four rail-based opportunity concepts, two freight rail and two passenger rail. Its limitations are data availability for a short-term study and varied timeframes to implement and see results.
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“Central Virginia Rail Economic Development Study (House Document No. 15, 2024).”
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REPORT OF THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF
RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Central Virginia Rail
Economic Development Study
(2024 Appropriation Act, Item
435.C.)
TO THE GOVERNOR AND
THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF VIRGINIA
HOUSE DOCUMENT NO. 15
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
RICHMOND
2024
Central Virginia
Rail Economic
Development Study
December 2024
Prepared for the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation by STV Inc.
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................... 1
Objective ...................................................................................................................... 1
Research Questions .................................................................................................... 1
Limitations ................................................................................................................... 2
Organization of the Document ..................................................................................... 2
Chapter 2: Background Research and Outreach ............................................................ 4
Background Research ................................................................................................. 4
Review of Previous Studies ..................................................................................... 4
Demographic Characteristics ................................................................................... 4
Land Use Characteristics ......................................................................................... 9
Rail Network ........................................................................................................... 11
Road Network ........................................................................................................ 12
Air Freight Network ................................................................................................ 12
Markets and Key Industries .................................................................................... 13
Outreach .................................................................................................................... 14
Chapter 3: Concepts Development and Prioritization .................................................... 18
Opportunity Concepts ................................................................................................ 18
Freight Rail Opportunity Concepts ......................................................................... 20
Multicriteria Analysis .................................................................................................. 22
Identification of Criteria .......................................................................................... 23
Prioritization Analysis ............................................................................................. 26
Results of MCA ...................................................................................................... 28
Site Selection ............................................................................................................. 28
Chapter 4: Economic Analysis ...................................................................................... 31
Economic Impact Analysis ......................................................................................... 31
Benefit-Cost Analysis................................................................................................. 31
Justification for Both Types of Analysis ..................................................................... 31
Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Concept ...................................................................... 32
Concept Definition .................................................................................................. 32
Factors that Drive Economic Impacts..................................................................... 32
Facility Capital Costs.............................................................................................. 33
Facility Operating and Maintenance Costs ............................................................. 34
Tourism and Visitor Spending from Amtrak Riders ................................................ 35
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Facility Users and Non-Users Impacts ................................................................... 37
Grand Total Long-Term Economic Impacts ........................................................... 42
Return on Investment ............................................................................................. 43
Transload Facility Concept ........................................................................................ 43
Concept Definition .................................................................................................. 44
Factors that Drive Economic Impacts..................................................................... 44
Build Out Facility Capacity ..................................................................................... 44
Facility Capital and Operating & Maintenance Costs ............................................. 45
Expected Freight to be Handled by the Facility ...................................................... 46
Estimated Direct Impacts ....................................................................................... 47
Estimated Total Economic Impacts ........................................................................ 48
Grand Total Long-Term Economic Impacts ........................................................... 50
Return on Investment ............................................................................................. 51
Other Benefits ........................................................................................................ 51
Rail-Served Site Concept .......................................................................................... 53
Concept Definition .................................................................................................. 53
Factors that Drive Economic Impacts..................................................................... 53
Build Out Facility Capacity ..................................................................................... 54
Facility Capital and Operating & Maintenance Costs ............................................. 54
Expected Freight to be Handled by the Facility ...................................................... 55
Estimated Direct Impacts ....................................................................................... 55
Estimated Total Economic Impacts ........................................................................ 56
Return on Investment ............................................................................................. 57
Concluding Remarks ................................................................................................. 57
Chapter 5: Summary of Findings ................................................................................... 61
Economic Analysis..................................................................................................... 61
Potential Funding Opportunities ................................................................................ 62
Next Steps ................................................................................................................. 63
Acronyms ......................................................................................................................... I
Appendix ........................................................................................................................ III
Appendix A – List of Interviews ................................................................................... IV
Appendix B – Local Business Questionnaire .............................................................. VI
Appendix C – Multicriteria Analysis Technical Approach ............................................ IX
Bedford Passenger Rail Stop .................................................................................. IX
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Transit-Oriented Development at Lynchburg Kemper Street Station .................... XIII
Rail-Served Site ................................................................................................... XVI
Transload Facility ............................................................................................... XVIII
Appendix D – Economic Assessments .................................................................... XXI
Economic Impact Analysis ................................................................................... XXI
Benefit-Cost Analysis .......................................................................................... XXII
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List of Tables
Table 1 Total Population 2000-2022 ............................................................................... 5
Table 2 Total Employment 2000-2022 ............................................................................ 6
Table 3 Employment by Industries in Study Area ............................................................ 7
Table 4 Employment by Industries in Virginia ................................................................. 7
Table 5 Major Employers in the Lynchburg Region ......................................................... 8
Table 6 Land Use of Study Area – Connect Central Virginia 2045 .................................. 9
Table 7 List of Stakeholders .......................................................................................... 15
Table 8 Primary Screening Criteria for Passenger Rail and Freight Rail Opportunity
Concepts ....................................................................................................................... 23
Table 9 Secondary Screening Criteria for Passenger Rail Opportunity Concepts ......... 24
Table 10 Secondary Screening Criteria for Freight Rail Opportunity Concepts............. 25
Table 11 Prioritization Analysis of Primary Screening Criteria ...................................... 26
Table 12 Prioritization Analysis of Secondary Screening Criteria – Passenger Rail
Opportunity Concepts.................................................................................................... 27
Table 13 Prioritization Analysis of Secondary Screening Criteria – Freight Rail
Opportunity Concepts.................................................................................................... 27
Table 14 Results of Multicriteria Analysis ...................................................................... 28
Table 15 Evaluation and Rating of Priority Sites ........................................................... 29
Table 16 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Capital Costs, 2026-2029 (2024$, discounted
to 2022) ......................................................................................................................... 34
Table 17 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Total Economic Impacts from Capital
Expenditures, 2026-2029 .............................................................................................. 34
Table 18 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Total Long-Term Economic Impacts from
Facility O&M Expenditures, 2030-2049 ......................................................................... 35
Table 19 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Total Long-Term Economic Impacts from
Additional Visitor Spending, 2030-2049 ........................................................................ 37
Table 20 Impact of Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Forecasted Changes in Annual
Ridership by Station ...................................................................................................... 38
Table 21 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Direct Impacts, 2030-2049 .............................. 39
Table 22 Distribution of Amtrak Riders by Trip Purpose in the Bedford-Campbell-
Roanoke Region ........................................................................................................... 40
Table 23 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Total Long-Term Economic Impacts from
Improved Business Productivity and Additional Disposable Income, 2030-2049 .......... 42
Table 24 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Grand Total Long-Term Economic Impacts,
2030-2049 ..................................................................................................................... 42
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Table 25 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Benefit-Cost Ratio and Return on Investment
...................................................................................................................................... 43
Table 26 Transload Facility - Estimated Facility Build-out Capacity .............................. 44
Table 27 Distribution of Commodities by Shipping Distances in the ‘Rest of Virginia” in
2025 (Forecast) ............................................................................................................. 47
Table 28 Transload Facility - Total Short-Term Economic Impacts of Construction
Expenditures over the One-year Construction Period ................................................... 49
Table 29 Transload Facility - Long-Term Economic Impacts of Annual O&M Cost and
Staffing, 20 Years .......................................................................................................... 49
Table 30 Transload Facility – Long-Term Economic Impacts of Annual Freight
Transportation Cost Savings, 20 Years ......................................................................... 50
Table 31 Transload Facility – Annual Total Long-Term Economic Impacts, 20 Years .. 50
Table 32 Transload Facility – Benefit-Cost Ratio and Return on Investment ................ 51
Table 33 Freight Emissions and Reductions Due to Transloading ................................ 52
Table 34 Freight Crash Rates and Reductions Due to Transloading ............................ 53
Table 35 Rail-served Site Capital Costs (2024$) .......................................................... 55
Table 36 Rail-Served Site - Total Short-Term Economic Impacts of Construction
Expenditures over the One-Year Construction Period .................................................. 56
Table 37 Rail-served Site – Benefit-Cost Ratio and Return on Investment ................... 57
Table 38 Baseline Forecast – Annual Boarding and Alighting (2018) ............................ XI
Table 39 Build Forecast – Annual Boarding and Alighting (2018) .................................. XI
Table 40 Historic Data – Ridership Values .................................................................. XIV
List of Figures
Figure 1 Land Use Map of the Study Area .................................................................... 10
Figure 2 Rail Network in Study Area ............................................................................. 11
Figure 3 Road Network in Study Area ........................................................................... 13
Figure 4 Potential Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Location............................................. 19
Figure 5 Current Amenities around Kemper Street Station ........................................... 21
Figure 6 Multicriteria Analysis Methodology .................................................................. 23
Figure 7 Potential Locations for Opportunity Concepts and Rating of Priority Sites ...... 30
Figure 8 Distribution of Amtrak Riders by Trip Purpose by Corridor Market .................. 36
Figure 9 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Model Inputs for Business Trips .................... 40
Figure 10 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Model Inputs for Non-Business Trips .......... 41
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Chapter 1: Introduction
The Central Virginia Rail Economic Development Study (Study), led by the Virginia
Department of Rail and Public Transportation (DRPT), aims to explore the potential of
rail-centric opportunities to drive long-term regional economic growth in Central Virginia.
The Study is in response to the Virginia General Assembly 2023 Special Session SB
6001/HB 6001 Item 449 C on page 537,1 excerpted below:
The Department of Rail and Public Transportation, with assistance from the Virginia
Economic Development Partnership, shall conduct a study to evaluate rail-centric
economic development opportunities in the Bedford, Campbell, and Lynchburg region
of Central Virginia, including both passenger and freight rail enhancements that
encourage intermodal and other non-intermodal market opportunities that may yield
long-term success and growth in the region. The Department shall submit the results
of the study to the Governor and General Assembly on or before November 1, 2024.
The study area includes the City of Lynchburg and Bedford, Campbell, Amherst, and
Appomattox Counties in Central Virginia, and is referred to as the Lynchburg region or
Lynchburg area throughout the Study narrative. The area boasts a dynamic labor force,
an education hub, and a growing tourism industry. Combining research, stakeholder
engagement, and analysis, this Study analyzes industry drivers and regional economic
conditions to develop innovative concepts for rail-centric economic development that
facilitate growth in well-established sectors.
Objective
The budget language mandates the evaluation of rail-centric economic development
opportunities, which are defined in this Study as “opportunity concepts.” The objective of
this Study is to evaluate and prioritize freight and passenger rail-centric opportunity
concepts that may yield long-term regional economic growth in the Lynchburg region of
Central Virginia. These concepts would capitalize on the study area’s existing
infrastructure assets as well as the economic and demographic landscape of the region.
By evaluating these concepts and quantifying their economic impacts, the Study
provides stakeholders with actionable recommendations for investment strategies that
align with regional goals, priorities, and market needs. The Study identifies concepts
that can be carried forward as projects to stimulate business growth, foster a
competitive and economically diverse population and workforce, and enhance
connectivity.
Research Questions
This Study focuses on freight rail and passenger rail in the Lynchburg region. The
research questions of the Study are identified on the following page.
1 2023 Special Session Budget Bill- HB6001. Retrieved
https://budget.lis.virginia.gov/item/2023/2/HB6001/Chapter/1/449/
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
What are the economic impacts associated with:
Improvements to freight rail access and related infrastructure?
Improvements to passenger rail service and related infrastructure?
Limitations
The results of this Study are limited by the following:
Data availability for a short-term study.
Varied timeframes to implement and see results from the opportunity concepts.
Organization of the Document
This Study develops and investigates four rail-based opportunity concepts— two freight
rail and two passenger rail. The opportunity concepts are informed by insights gleaned
by researching available data, stakeholder engagement, and analysis.
CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND RESEARCH AND OUTREACH
Chapter 2 describes the foundation phase of the Study, focusing on background
research and stakeholder engagement. The background research includes a
comprehensive socioeconomic analysis that includes insights into population and
economic trends and identifies areas where the implementation of rail-centric projects
could stimulate economic growth and development. An outreach effort was conducted in
parallel to engage key stakeholders to gain additional insight.
The primary objective of the research and outreach is to provide an understanding of
regional economic and market conditions, laying the groundwork for subsequent phases
of the Study. Chapter 2 serves as a blueprint for the remaining analysis.
CHAPTER 3: OPPORTUNITY CONCEPTS
Chapter 3 introduces, describes, and provides a screening methodology for four rail-
centric opportunity concepts. The Study screens the freight rail-related opportunity
concepts using historic and projected freight trends and other potential benefits
including economic development, industry support, and scale of investment. The Study
screens the passenger rail-related opportunity concepts using historic and projected
ridership patterns, and other potential benefits, such as travel time savings, safety
benefits, emissions avoided, and health benefits.
Chapter 3 also includes the multi-criteria analysis (MCA) screening approach to
evaluate the opportunity concepts. This systematic framework allows for the evaluation
of numerous wide-ranging types of projects against various influencing criteria.
CHAPTER 4: ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
Chapter 4 includes the economic impact analysis (EIA) that quantifies both the direct
and indirect economic impacts of the most viable freight rail and passenger rail
opportunity concepts identified in Chapter 3. The EIA is conducted using IMPLAN
software, which quantifies the impacts of the selected opportunity concepts in terms of
employment and earnings, gross state product (GSP), economic output, and tax
revenue, including direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
CHAPTER 5: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Chapter 5 summarizes the findings of previous chapters, including the findings of the
background research and outreach, the identification of rail-centric opportunity
concepts, and the findings of the EIA. EIA Chapter 5 delivers the findings in a format
that is accessible for technical and non-technical audiences and includes recommended
feasible options to support rail-centric economic development in Central Virginia.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Chapter 2: Background Research and Outreach
This chapter provides the background research that forms the basis of the rail-centric
opportunity concepts and the EIA.
Background Research
The research includes a review of existing studies, a demographic analysis, and
outreach to key industry leaders.
Review of Previous Studies
Several studies offer background information and analysis to evaluate rail-centric
economic development opportunities in the study area, including:
Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Application for Funding Under the Fiscal Year
2023-2024 CRISI Grant Program, 2024 (Town of Bedford)
GOVA Region 2 Growth and Diversification Plan, 2023 (Virginia Department of
Housing and Community Development)
Town of Bedford Intercity Passenger Rail Stop Status Update, 2023 (Town of
Bedford)
Bedford Station RTC Analysis, 2022(DRPT/NS)
Inland Port Study: Feasibility analysis of locating an inland port in the
Commonwealth, 2022 (VEDP)
Lynchburg Regional Business Alliance Regional Economic Development
Strategy, 2022 (LRBA)
Virginia Statewide Rail Plan, 2022 (DRPT)
Connect Central Virginia 2045, 2020/2022 (CVTPO)
Bedford/Franklin County Regional Passenger Rail Stop Study, 2021 (DRPT)
Downtown Lynchburg Master Plan, 2018 (City of Lynchburg)
Lynchburg Regional Connectivity Study, 2017 (Virginia Office of Intermodal
Planning and Investment)
Town of Bedford Comprehensive Plan, 2017 (Town of Bedford)
Virginia Statewide Rail Plan, 2017 (DRPT)
VTrans 2040 Multimodal Transportation Plan, 2017 (Virginia Office of Intermodal
Planning and Investment)
Amtrak Route & Service Change Financial Evaluation-Add Bedford, VA to the
Proposed Roanoke, VA Extension of the Washington-Lynchburg, 2016 (Amtrak)
Bedford County Comprehensive Plan 2030, 2015 (Bedford County)
Demographic Characteristics
The Study includes a demographic analysis that provides insight into population and
economic characteristics and trends. The analysis supports informed planning,
decision-making, and investment strategies about rail-centric economic development
opportunities.
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POPULATION
Table 1 summarizes the changes in population in 10-year increments for individual
localities, the study area as a whole, and the entire state of Virginia. The study area’s
growth (18 percent) lagged only slightly behind that of the Commonwealth (21percent)
between 2000 and 2022. Bedford County grew the most (31 percent), with growth
concentrated in the eastern part of the county around Forest and in the southern part of
the county around Smith Mountain Lake. The Smith Mountain Lake area attracts growth
from lakefront recreation and is increasingly popular for year-round residential
development.2 Population is a key determinant of the labor market. A larger labor
market makes a region more attractive for businesses and contributes to the economic
viability of a region.
Table 1 Total Population 2000-2022
Change
Population 2000 2010 2020 2022
(2000-2022)
Amherst
31,900 32,400 31,800 31,400 -2%
County
Appomattox
13,700 15,000 15,800 16,300 17%
County
Bedford
60,400 68,700 79,000 79,800 31%
County
Campbell
51,100 54,800 55,400 55,500 9%
County
City of
65,300 75,600 81,000 79,200 21%
Lynchburg
Study Area 222,300 246,400 262,900 262,100 18%
Virginia 7,078,500 8,001,000 8,509,400 8,624,500 21%
Source: 2000 and 2010 from US Decennial Census, 2018-2022 from ACS 5-Year Estimates
EMPLOYMENT
Table 2 summarizes the changes in employment in 10-year increments for individual
localities, the study area as a whole, and the entire state of Virginia. While Bedford
County’s employment (31 percent) grew more than Virginia’s (22 percent) between
2000 and 2022, the study area’s growth (18 percent) was slightly behind that of the
state for the same period.
2 Town of Bedford Comprehensive Plan, 2017. Page III-11. Retrieved
https://www.bedfordva.gov/DocumentCenter/View/1065/Comprehensive-Plan---Adopted-June-2017-PDF
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 2 Total Employment 2000-2022
Change
Employment 2000 2010 2020 2022
(2000-2022)
Amherst
County 25,300 26,400 26,300 25,800 -2%
Appomattox
County 10,700 11,800 12,800 13,100 19%
Bedford
County 47,500 54,200 65,100 66,200 32%
Campbell
County 40,100 43,500 45,700 46,000 9%
City of
Lynchburg 52,300 60,900 67,300 65,700 21%
Study Area 175,800 196,900 217,300 216,800 18%
Virginia 5,530,000 6,216,300 6,849,500 6,962,100 22%
Source: 2000 and 2010 from US Decennial Census, 2018-2022 ACS 5-Year Estimates
Like population growth, employment growth in a region demonstrates an increase in the
labor market, which is critical to attract business development. Employment growth also
increases earnings, which leads to an increase in consumer spending. This spending
creates a cycle of goods and services to be exchanged, which contributes to an
increase in aggregate demand, thus inducing economic activity.
Employment by Sector
Table 3 summarizes changes in employment by industry in the study area in 10-year
increments over time between 2000 and 2020. Table 4 summarizes changes in
employment by industry in Virginia as a whole. Since 2010, the study area has seen
higher growth in the following industries compared to Virginia:
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and mining
Retail trade
Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste
management services
Educational services, and health care, and social assistance
Other services, except public administration
Public administration
While manufacturing, wholesale trade, and information employment decreased at the
state level between 2010 and 2020 (-5 percent, -12 percent, and -19 percent,
respectively), the decrease in employment in these industries was more pronounced in
the study area (-11 percent, -30 percent, and -26 percent, respectively). Further,
whereas employment for “transportation and warehousing, and utilities” and “finance
and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing” industries increased between
2010 and 2020 in Virginia (17 percent and 3 percent respectively), the study area
experienced an employment decrease for these industries during that time period (-5
percent and -14 percent, respectively).
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 3 Employment by Industries in Study Area
Change Change
Industry 2000 2010 (2000- 2020 (2010-
2010) 2020)
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and
1,400 1,100 -20% 1,500 33%
hunting, and mining
Construction 8,300 8,800 6% 8,200 -6%
Manufacturing 23,200 18,600 -20% 16,600 -11%
Wholesale trade 4,000 2,700 -33% 1,900 -30%
Retail trade 12,900 13,500 5% 14,600 8%
Transportation and warehousing,
5,300 5,800 9% 5,500 -5%
and utilities
Information 2,000 1,900 -6% 1,400 -26%
Finance and insurance, and real
5,900 6,900 18% 6,000 -14%
estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, and
management, and administrative and 6,600 9,000 37% 11,200 25%
waste management services
Educational services, and health
21,100 27,200 29% 34,200 26%
care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation,
and accommodation and food 6,200 9,100 47% 9,700 6%
services
Other services, except public
5,400 5,600 3% 7,000 26%
administration
Public administration 3,300 3,700 12% 4,600 23%
Source: 2000 from US Decennial Census, 2010 and 2020 from ACS 5-Year Estimates
Table 4 Employment by Industries in Virginia
Change Change
Industry 2000 2010 (2000- 2020 (2010-
2010) 2020)
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and 42,400 42,800 1% 35,400 -17%
hunting, and mining
Construction 250,200 288,400 15% 274,100 -5%
Manufacturing 387,100 311,700 -19% 294,900 -5%
Wholesale trade 93,500 83,900 -10% 73,500 -12%
Retail trade 389,400 413,100 6% 423,500 3%
Transportation and warehousing, 158,500 162,400 2% 189,400 17%
and utilities
Information 130,600 97,000 -26% 78,500 -19%
Finance and insurance, and real 226,200 256,700 13% 265,100 3%
estate and rental and leasing
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Change Change
Industry 2000 2010 (2000- 2020 (2010-
2010) 2020)
Professional, scientific, and 395,700 544,500 38% 663,400 22%
management, and administrative and
waste management services
Educational services, and health 626,200 776,500 24% 926,200 19%
care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, 246,000 306,300 25% 365,700 19%
and accommodation and food
services
Other services, except public 183,700 197,300 7% 220,200 12%
administration
Public administration 282,300 343,400 22% 369,800 8%
Source: 2000 from US Decennial Census, 2010 and 2020 from ACS 5-Year Estimates
Except for educational services, and health care and social assistance, manufacturing
and retail trade make up the two largest industries in the study area. Manufacturing, a
production-based industry, experienced a decline in employment between 2000 and
2022 while retail trade, a consumption-based industry, experienced an increase in
employment in that time.
Table 5 lists the major employers in the Lynchburg region, as defined by the Lynchburg
Regional Business Alliance.
Table 5 Major Employers in the Lynchburg Region
Number of
Employer Name Industry Sector Principal Municipality
Employees
Liberty University Universities & Colleges Lynchburg 6,400
Schools
Centra Hospitals General Medical and Bedford, Danville, Farmville, 3,100
Surgical Gretna, Lynchburg
BWX Manufacturers - Nuclear Lynchburg 2,500
Technologies, Inc.
Framatome Nuclear Products & Lynchburg 1,900
Services
Lynchburg City Schools - Elementary & Lynchburg 1,600
Schools Secondary
Shentel Telecommunications Bedford 1,500
Services
City of Lynchburg Government - City Lynchburg 1,100
Genworth Insurance Agencies Lynchburg 1,000
Southern Air, Inc. Contractors - Mechanical, Lynchburg 900
HVAC
Note: Rounded to the nearest hundred.
Source: Lynchburg Regional Business Alliance, 2022, https://insidelynchburgregion.com/major-employers
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Land Use Characteristics
Land use characteristics such as proximity to dense population and employment,
building types, and existing infrastructure all have considerable influence in attracting
businesses. Table 6 describes the land use patterns of the study area. Land use
patterns are similar in Amherst, Appomattox, and Campbell Counties, with residential
development along routes with access to the City of Lynchburg. Bedford County has
sparse development, with more agricultural land in between developed areas. The City
of Lynchburg has more intense land uses, with some mixed-use buildings in pockets of
largely low-density residential. Figure 1 displays a land use map of the study area that
reflects these development patterns.
Table 6 Land Use of Study Area – Connect Central Virginia 2045
Location Land Use
Amherst Much of Amherst County is agricultural, with swathes of public land draping the Blue
County Ridge Mountains in the northwest. Outside the Town of Amherst, residential land use is
primarily along Route 29 approaching the City of Lynchburg. Commercial and industrial
land are largely located along Route 29, on the central and east side of the county.
Appomattox Most of the Appomattox County land use is agricultural and public land. Residential and
County commercial uses narrowly follow Route 460 in the east, broadening on approach to the
Town of Appomattox and the City of Lynchburg in the west.
Bedford Bedford County’s more intense uses are largely on Routes 460 and 221 near the City
County of Lynchburg, around the Town of Bedford, and approaching Smith Mountain Lake.
Apart from residential areas near the City of Lynchburg, Roanoke, and the lake, much
of the county is agricultural or protected land. Commercial and industrial land is
clustered closer towards the Town of Bedford and the City of Lynchburg.
Campbell Campbell County focuses more intense land uses around the Lynchburg Regional
County Airport and along Route 29. Largely rural, higher residential densities and some mixed
uses occur around the City of Lynchburg line, as well as in towns like Altavista,
Brookneal, and Rustburg. Commercial and industrial land are largely dispersed towards
the west side of the county.
City of The City of Lynchburg’s more intense land uses roughly follow a horseshoe shape
Lynchburg running from downtown to Montview and the Liberty University area and then following
the Route 501 corridor. Pockets of mixed-use developments dot a largely low-density
residential landscape. While largely residential, education and commercial and
industrial land have a significant presence in the city.
Source: Connect Central Virginia 2045, Chapter V: Demographic and Land Use Trends,
https://www.cvtpo.org/images/Transportation-Planning-and-Programming/Long-Range-
Transportation/2045-LRTP/2045PlanMar3022/CCV_2045_Chapter_5.pdf
The presence of industrial land classifications in the study area is advantageous as it
indicates the region is suitable for manufacturing-based industrial development that can
attract similar businesses to the region, supporting the growth of freight-focused
industries. Mixed-use development is indicative of creating quality places where people
want to live, work, and play, thereby incentivizing population growth while allowing for
higher-density land use.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Figure 1 Land Use Map of the Study Area
Sources: STV Inc (graphic). Amherst County and Appomattox County land use parcels provided by DRPT, July 2024. Bedford County land use parcels
accessed from Bedford County OpenGIS, July 2024. City of Lynchburg land use parcels accessed from City of Lynchburg OpenGIS, July 2024.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Rail Network
FREIGHT RAIL OPERATIONS
The study area is served by two Class I freight railroads, CSX Transportation (CSX) and
Norfolk Southern (NS). Both railroads provide direct access to the Port of Virginia, the
deepest shipping channel on the east coast. The rail infrastructure in the study area
presents an opportunity to divert freight from trucks to rail. Amtrak’s Northeast Regional
and Crescent routes provide passenger rail service in the study area. NS serves as the
host railroad for this passenger rail service. Figure 2 displays the rail network in the
study area.
Figure 2 Rail Network in Study Area
Source: STV Inc.
From an analysis of freight data published in the Virginia Statewide Rail Plan, 18
percent of freight is moved by rail in the Lynchburg Virginia Department of
Transportation (VDOT) District, compared to 82 percent by truck. Approximately 13
businesses are served by freight rail in the region, ten are served by NS and three are
served by CSX. The region is served by NS’ Heartland Corridor, a high-capacity rail line
cleared for high-cube double-stack containers, which NS uses to serve the Port of
Virginia.
PASSENGER RAIL OPERATIONS
Amtrak currently operates Virginia-sponsored Northeast Regional and long-distance
Crescent services through Central Virginia Lynchburg-Kemper Street Station is currently
the only passenger rail train station in the study area and serves a total of six Amtrak
trains daily.
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Amtrak’s Northeast Regional route serves the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic between
Boston and Washington, DC, also known as the Northeast Corridor. The following
segments connect to the Northeast Corridor: Springfield – New Haven, Washington, DC
– Norfolk, and Washington, DC – Roanoke corridors. The Northeast Regional's
Washington, DC - Roanoke (Route 46 to Roanoke)3 segment serves Lynchburg’s
Kemper Street Station with two daily roundtrips.
Amtrak’s Long Distance Crescent route connects the Northeast to the Gulf Coast, with
terminal stations in New York City and New Orleans. The route stops twice a day at
Lynchburg Kemper Street station – once each in the northbound and southbound
directions.
Previous studies and grant applications show that expanding passenger rail service in
Central Virginia could enhance the region’s capacity for business attraction and
economic growth and offer a viable, convenient, and sustainable alternative for
passenger travel. DRPT and the Town of Bedford have evaluated project feasibility,
ridership forecasting, facility planning, and estimated probable costs for a potential
future passenger rail stop at Bedford between existing Amtrak stops at Roanoke and
Lynchburg. In October 2024 the Town of Bedford announced it was awarded a
$1,481,000 grant through FRA’s Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety
Improvements (CRISI) program to complete National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)
compliance and preliminary engineering for a new Bedford passenger rail stop.
Road Network
Four-lane limited access highways U.S. 460, U.S. 29, and U.S. 501, and other key
arterials connect the study area to the rest of the State. Absent interstate highway
access in the study area, rail is an essential alternative to reach outside markets. Figure
3 displays the road network in the study area.
Air Freight Network
The Lynchburg Regional Airport is a public-use airport served by American Eagle with
service through Charlotte International Airport. It is located partially in Campbell County
and partially in the City of Lynchburg adjacent to the NS rail line. The airport does not
handle significant volumes of commercial freight.4 Air freight tends to be more viable for
low-weight, time-sensitive, high-value products and as such, there is typically limited
potential to interchange with rail, which serves heavy, less time-sensitive commodities.
3 Virginia Passenger Rail Authority, Amtrak Virginia Rolls into Summer with Record Ridership, May 31,
2024. Retrieved https://vapassengerrailauthority.org/amtrak-virginia-rolls-into-summer-with-record-
ridership/
4 Lynchburg Regional Airport, Airport Master Plan Update, March 2010. Retrieved Microsoft Word -
Compiled Report_WPR_Format_rev5 Addresses FAA_DOAV Comments FINAL.docx (flylyh.com)
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Figure 3 Road Network in Study Area
Source: STV Inc.
Markets and Key Industries
The Lynchburg region has historically supported an industrially based economy.
Manufacturing remains the top-performing industry in the region at present. The region’s
economy is dominated by freight-intensive industries such as manufacturing and food
and beverage.5 The movement of goods is currently heavily reliant on Virginia’s
highway system, contributing to increased traffic on U.S. 29, U.S. 460 (providing access
toward the Port of Virginia), Interstate 81, and U.S. 501.
Key industries in the Lynchburg region include:
Food and beverage, comprising companies that distribute, process, and
package food and drink products to customers.
Steel and metals, often used in construction, manufacturing, and technology,
where steel is an iron-based alloy used to reinforce and create concrete,
bridges, infrastructure, tools, ships, trains, cars, machines.
5 The Top Industries in Lynchburg - Lynchburg Economic Development Authority, 2024. Retrieved
https://www.opportunitylynchburg.com/the-top-industries-in-lynchburg/
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Nuclear technology, focused on generating energy via nuclear power plants
and reactors.
Wireless infrastructure and communication, providing cell phone towers,
rooftop wireless sites, and other facilities that transmit wireless communication
signals.
Financial and business support services, comprised of services like banking,
mortgages, credit, payment, tax preparation and planning, accounting,
investing, as well as activities benefiting companies like marketing, production,
safety, cost control.
GOVA Region 2 Growth and Diversification Plan 2023 identifies the following
interrelated business clusters that offer the greatest potential for sustainable, scalable,
future growth in Central Virginia:
Transportation and autonomy manufacturing
Materials and machinery manufacturing
Life science and biotechnology
Information technology, engineering, and emerging technology
These are largely traded sector and supply chain industries, with high levels of export
sales that support in-region production and a skill-aligned workforce.6 According to the
2022 Lynchburg Regional Economic Development Strategy, Central Virginia aims to be
more competitive for economic development projects in sectors such as advanced
manufacturing, and it must take additional steps to ensure it is able to meet the
anticipated future demand for this type industrial development.7 Central Virginia’s robust
existing rail infrastructure makes pursuing targeted strategies to secure companies that
require rail service a natural choice.8
Outreach
As part of the Study process, DRPT performed targeted outreach to government and
industry representatives inside and outside the region to understand the transportation
landscape, identify unique needs and emerging trends, and uncover opportunities for
rail as a transportation solution. Through this outreach, DRPT also collected data on the
6 Growth & Opportunity Virginia Region 2 Growth and Diversification Plan, 2023. Page 2. Retrieved
https://www.dhcd.virginia.gov/sites/default/files/DocX/gova/region-two/r2-growthplan-2023.pdf.
7 Lynchburg Regional Economic Development Strategy, 2022. Page 24. Retrieved
https://www.yeslynchburgregion.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Lynchburg-Regional-Economic-
Development-Strategy-FINAL.pdf.
8 Inland Port Study, Virginia Economic Development Partnership. December 2022. Page 37. Retrieved
https://cardinalnews.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Inland-Port-Feasibility-Study_December-2022.pdf.
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types of freight and volumes moved, key routes, origins, destinations, and potential site
locations for recommended opportunity concepts. Table 7 below includes a list of the
entities that were consulted. DRPT further distributed a questionnaire to local
businesses to solicit feedback on the viability of rail-centric economic development
opportunities. The Study conducted outreach via over fifteen phone/video interviews,
online surveys, and in-person meetings.
Table 7 List of Stakeholders
Type of Stakeholders Stakeholders
Local Governments City of Lynchburg, Town of Bedford, Campbell County, Bedford County,
Amherst County
Economic Development Central Virginia Career Works, Central Virginia Planning District
Organizations Commission, Lynchburg Regional Business Alliance, VEDP
Manufacturers AEP, Aerofin, Banker Steel, BWXT, CB Fleet, Foster Fuels, Framatome,
Frito-Lay, Georgia Pacific, Glad, Graham Packaging, Hanwah Azdel,
Moore & Giles,
Transportation Industry Amtrak, BB, CSX, Houff, Moffatt & Nichol, NS, Port of Virginia, VPRA
Partners
Source: DRPT.
Appendix A lists the names of stakeholders interviewed and Appendix B provides the
questionnaire the Study distributed to local businesses.
KEY FINDINGS
This section summarizes the key findings and conclusions from background research
and outreach.
Diversification of industries: The Lynchburg region is developing industry-specific
knowledge and workforce competencies that will provide the region with a competitive
and unique labor market. Two ways include attracting new residents from outside the
community and fostering homegrown talent through targeted higher education
programs. To enhance economic growth, the region will continue to invest in key
industries which are: food and beverage, steel and metals, nuclear technology, wireless
infrastructure and communication, and financial and business support services. The
region will also continue to support manufacturing industries, as manufacturing
continues to be the strongest export-oriented sector in the region.
Workforce training centers: The Lynchburg region, with the support of LRBA, is
focusing on expanding the “Regional Workforce Center” on the campus of Central
Virginia Community College (CVCC) and maximizing training programs through a multi-
faceted approach, including strengthening relationships with regional partners. The
region has also invested in growing the “Regional Center for Entrepreneurship” to
promote innovation in the Lynchburg region. The goal of developing a strong talent
pipeline will be complemented by growing and attracting diverse businesses, ensuring a
competitive supply of industrial sites and buildings, and promote and connecting a
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
dynamic regional core through housing, and ensuring strong multimodal connectivity
within and between the Lynchburg region.
Target industries through business attraction and retention: The Lynchburg region
has a relatively low concentration of employment in “traded sectors.” Firms in these
sectors “export” goods and services to other markets both domestic and foreign,
thereby bringing new wealth into the community. These traded sectors are:
manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial
services, professional services, and headquarter operations. Maintaining and enhancing
the region’s capacity for business attraction and business retention and expansion will
be an important part of this effort to improve the region’s underlying value proposition.
Plans for innovative tech parks are developed for industries that are dependent on rail
freight infrastructure. The study area has existing rail spurs that are not being used.
There are opportunities to invest in manufacturing or warehouse buildings nearby that
could benefit.
Business opportunities: The Lynchburg region has missed out on opportunities to
attract advanced manufacturing companies to the region due to a lack of “move-in-
ready” buildings, especially sites with at least 150,000 square feet of available space
that can be expanded to 300,000 square feet. Economic development practitioners said
that most competitive projects are searching for existing buildings that are move-in
ready or close to it. Addressing this need in the near term will require the development
of buildings built to attract businesses during construction or soon thereafter.
Additionally, there are opportunities in the study area to occupy vacant industrial sites
with access to rail spurs.
Regional connectivity: Amtrak service in Lynchburg is one of the region’s greatest
connectivity assets. Regional stakeholders view Amtrak service as an asset for its
convenient access to Washington, DC This access provides value to firms both by
enabling easy business travel and by enhancing the image of the region for young talent
interested in proximity to major urban centers. When it comes to freight transportation,
the Lynchburg region is less reliant on air and rail than the Commonwealth overall, but
approximately 1.2 times more dependent on truck movements. The Lynchburg region is
crossed by Class I railroads, and although the region does not have an intermodal
container rail transfer terminal, there may be other opportunities for rail-oriented
development that would take advantage of the significant freight rail capacity in the
region (e.g., individual industrial users or, logistics and warehousing operations that
facilitate truck-rail transfers for other businesses).
Inter-city passenger rail: Bedford Amtrak rail stop plans started as a grassroots
movement in the Bedford County and Franklin County communities. Passenger rail
service in Bedford would provide an opportunity to attract tourism in the region due to its
location close to Smith Mountain Lake, the Peaks of Otter, the National D-Day
Memorial, and the Blue Ridge Parkway. Bedford County has developed construction
and cost estimates for the preferred station location, and the community is seeking
funding opportunities.
Transit-oriented development in Lynchburg: Lynchburg is exploring potential transit-
oriented development opportunities around the Lynchburg Kemper Street station
through USDOT’s Thriving Communities program. The station is adjacent to the bus
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
transfer station downtown where multimodal transit connectivity is available. The plans
to improve transit-oriented development around the station will contribute to housing
and economic development for Lynchburg and create more mobility options for the
community.
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Chapter 3: Concepts Development and Prioritization
Rail plays a critical role in the economy of Central Virginia—moving both freight and
people, connecting the Commonwealth to markets, employment, and leisure activities.
This chapter describes four potential rail-centric opportunity concepts that could
facilitate economic growth and development in Central Virginia. This chapter
summarizes the results of the multicriteria analysis (MCA) that identifies the three most
viable opportunity concepts to be further evaluated in an EIA (Chapter 4). The MCA
includes a review of possible site locations identified through research and outreach
(Chapter 2) and evaluates the potential of identified sites to host the selected
opportunity concepts.
Opportunity Concepts
The purpose of this Study is to evaluate rail-centric economic development
opportunities, which are defined as “opportunity concepts” that have the potential to
facilitate long-term regional economic growth in Central Virginia. Opportunity concepts
capitalize on the study area’s existing infrastructure assets as well as the economic and
demographic landscape of the region. Of the four concepts identified, two focus on
passenger rail, and two focus on freight rail. The concepts are:
BEDFORD PASSENGER RAIL STOP
The Bedford passenger rail stop concept is located in the Town of Bedford between
Lynchburg and Roanoke, Virginia. Amtrak’s Northeast Regional Route 46 currently
operates on the Norfolk Southern railroad that runs through the town. Bedford has been
without passenger rail service since 1971.
DRPT’s 2021 Bedford Regional Passenger Rail Stop Study recommended a site for the
Bedford passenger rail stop located approximately one mile from the central business
district. The rail stop is planned to be accessible for all users of the transportation
network. Based on previously conducted studies, the concept for the Bedford station
includes surface parking, a caretaker-style station, an intertrack fence to deter
trespassing, a platform designed for level boarding, and auto and transit drop-off
facilities. Figure 4 shows the proposed location and layout.
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Figure 4 Potential Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Location
Source: Town of Bedford, Bedford Rail Stop Council Briefing, November 14, 2023.
TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT AT LYNCHBURG KEMPER STREET STATION
The second passenger rail opportunity concept the Study considers is a transit-oriented
development (TOD) area around the Kemper Street Station in the City of Lynchburg.
The Kemper Street Station is located southwest of downtown Lynchburg and offers
daily intercity passenger rail service, including two daily roundtrips along Amtrak’s
Northeast Regional Route 46, which provides service between Washington, DC and
Roanoke, and one roundtrip along the Amtrak Crescent route, which provides long-
distance service between New York City and New Orleans. The Virginia Breeze’s
Piedmont Express line, which makes one daily round trip that connects Danville to
Washington, DC also stops at the Kemper Street Station as do Amtrak Virginia Thruway
buses. Further, the Greater Lynchburg Transit Company (GLTC), which provides local
bus service, makes stops at the Kemper Street Transfer Station, which is adjacent to
the Lynchburg Kemper Street Station. There are several cycling routes within walking
distance of the station, including the Blackwater Creek Trail, the city’s multimodal trail
network. The City of Lynchburg owns the station and the parking facility, while NS owns
the track and the platform.
The opportunity concept would open up TOD uses around the station. According to the
U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), TOD creates dense, walkable, and mixed-
use spaces near transit that support vibrant, sustainable, and equitable communities.
TOD projects include a mix of commercial, residential, office, and entertainment land
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
uses.9 According to the Federal Transit Administration (FTA), a “successful TOD
depends on access and density around a transit station.”10 TOD at the Kemper Street
Station has undergone limited project development activities to date.
The City of Lynchburg has identified opportunities for redevelopment around the station,
including the city–owned 1.7-acre parcel approximately three blocks from the Kemper
Street Station, the former GLTC bus terminal, which is unoccupied and zoned for the
city’s industrial use. The community can leverage these assets to develop transit-
supported land use. Figure 5 displays current amenities around Kemper Street Station
and the City owned land in the 1-mile buffer area.
The USDOT recently awarded the City of Lynchburg funding through the Thriving
Communities grant program under the Complete Neighborhood Community of Practice
to further develop the TOD at Lynchburg Kemper Street Station opportunity concept.
The city is in the planning process of detailing and collecting data. Any further analysis
of this concept should align with the findings of the planning study funded by USDOT.
Freight Rail Opportunity Concepts
Freight opportunity concepts described below are not specific to a particular site. The
Site Selection section identifies the most suitable locations in the study area to situate
the identified opportunity concepts.
RAIL-SERVED SITE
Companies desiring a rail-served site for industrial development typically prioritize sites
with enough acreage to develop a manufacturing and/or warehouse facility in proximity
to an active railroad that can be connected by a rail spur. An existing rail spur is not
necessarily a pre-requisite, but favorable topography is needed to construct a rail spur
to facilitate the loading and unloading of goods onto trains, enabling efficient
transportation via rail. Development may involve constructing new facilities or upgrading
existing ones to better serve rail transport needs. The key factors to consider when
choosing a location for a rail-served site include physical site characteristics, zoning,
suitability, and total cost. The physical site must accommodate a rail spur and provide
suitably flat terrain.
Ideally existing infrastructure would include the availability of network access to multiple
transportation modes. Water, sewer, and power access are not pre-requisites to select
a location for a rail-served site, but access is necessary once a site is selected. The
communities considering investing in rail-served sites should be business friendly and
9 U.S. Department of Transportation, Transit-Oriented Development, 2024. Retrieved
https://www.transportation.gov/buildamerica/TOD#:~:text=Transit%2Doriented%20development%20(TOD)%20create
s%20dense%2C%20walkable%2C,%2C%20sustainable%2C%20and%20equitable%20communities .
10 GO Triangle. (2018). Transit-Oriented Development Guidebook. https://gotriangle.org/tod/guidebook
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amenable to increasing industrial development in designated areas of the community
that avoid impacts to residential and recreational uses, and natural resources. State and
local laws, policies, programs, and incentives to support business development can
improve the economic viability of a rail-served site. Regarding the workforce, the site
should be located in an area with available skilled workers, and with access to training.
Attributes that may expand the region’s labor market or incentivize businesses to locate
in the region, such as quality of life, ample affordable housing stock, medical services,
and recreation may improve the viability of a rail-served site.11
Figure 5 Current Amenities around Kemper Street Station
Source: STV Inc.
TRANSLOAD FACILITY
A transload facility is a location where goods are transferred between different modes of
transportation, such as from rail to truck. These facilities function as intermediaries
between different transportation networks, allowing for the efficient transfer of goods
from one mode of transport to another. For that reason, siting a rail to truck transload
11 Iowa Department of Transportation, Developing a Rail-Served Facility, no date. Retrieved
https://iowadot.gov/iowarail/railroads/industry/iowatoolkit/Toolkit_Developing.pdf
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facility is dictated by the proximity to road and rail infrastructure, as well as proximity to
industries that can make use of the facility. Transload facilities may include industry-
specific warehouses, storage, and other facilities for handling of goods during the
transfers.
Transload facilities are of particular benefit to regions with significant volumes of bulk
commodities, allowing them to be broken down into smaller volumes and shifted
between storage types. Transload facilities differ from intermodal facilities in that
transload facilities commonly handle bulk freight while intermodal facilities commonly
handle containerized goods. Intermodal facilities require more than 100,000 train
carloads moving 2,000 miles annually to be viable while transload facilities require
1,500 annual carloads.12
Key factors to consider when choosing a transload facility: 13
Rail access
Available property
Road and highway access
Relationship to / with nearby facilities
Presence of an anchor commodity or customer
Local trucking partners
Community involvement
Multicriteria Analysis
A multicriteria analysis (MCA) is a decision-making technique used to evaluate and
compare multiple alternatives or options based on many criteria or objectives.
For this Study, the analysis applies the MCA methodology to evaluate which of the
opportunity concepts would best meet the needs and objectives of the Central Virginia
region. Figure 6 describes the MCA methodology.
12 Arkansas Department of Transportation, Locating Translad Facilities to Ease Highway Congestion and
Safeguard the Environment, 2017. Retrieved
https://www.ahtd.ar.gov/TRC/Final_Report/TRC1608_Locating_Transload_Facilities_to_Ease_Highway_Congestion_
and_Safeguard_the_Environment.pdf
13 Kansas Department of Transportation, Transload Facility Site Analysis Advisory Committee Meeting, no
date. Retrieved
https://www.ksdot.gov/Assets/wwwksdotorg/bureaus/burRail/Rail/Documents/TFSAACPresentation.pdf
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Figure 6 Multicriteria Analysis Methodology
Source: STV Inc.
Identification of Criteria
The MCA includes two sets of screening criteria, with consistent criteria in the primary
screening and varied criteria in the secondary screening. The evaluation of opportunity
concepts includes a qualitative assessment of benefits based on industry standards.
The following sections describe the primary and secondary screening criteria for
passenger rail and freight rail.
PRIMARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Table 8 displays the primary screening criteria for the passenger rail and freight rail
opportunity concepts.
Table 8 Primary Screening Criteria for Passenger Rail and Freight Rail Opportunity Concepts
Primary Screening Criteria
Does this align with regional strategies and policies?
Are there existing studies with a preliminary feasibility plan?
Is there availability for integration with other infrastructure?
Has the concept been developed and advanced?
Is there existing (multimodal, intermodal) connectivity?
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SECONDARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Table 9 displays the secondary screening criteria and rating methodology for the passenger rail opportunity concepts.
Table 9 Secondary Screening Criteria for Passenger Rail Opportunity Concepts
Market growth
Score Stakeholder Scale of
(population, Timeline Walkability Ridership
(points) interests investment
employment)
High Short / Most High High High Small
Favorable
Population and Walk Score and Bike Score Ridership at location Broadly Under $10M
employment grew The project is are both a minimum of accounts for greater than demonstrated
3 at a faster rate expected to be walkable/bikeable. 20 percent of ridership public support.
than Virginia operational in along Amtrak’s Northeast
between 2000 fewer than five Regional Route 46 to
and 2022. years. Roanoke.
Moderate Moderate Medium Moderate Moderate Moderate
Population and The project is Either the Walk Score is a Ridership at location A moderate Between $10M
employment grew expected to be minimum of walkable or the accounts for between 10 rating is not and $50M
2 equal (within 1%) operational in Bike Score is a minimum of and 20 percent of applicable for
to that of Virginia greater than bikeable. ridership along Amtrak’s this criterion.
between 2000 five years but Northeast Regional Route
and 2022. fewer than ten 46 to Roanoke.
years.
Low Long / Least Low Low Low High
Favorable
Population and Neither the Walk Score nor Ridership at location Limited Greater than
employment grew The project is the Bike Score receive a accounts for less than 10 demonstrated $50M
1 at a slower rate expected to be minimum rating of percent of ridership along public support.
than Virginia operational in walkable/bikeable. Amtrak’s Northeast
between 2000 more than ten Regional Route 46 to
and 2022. years. Roanoke.
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Table 10 displays the secondary screening criteria and rating methodology for freight rail opportunity concepts.
Table 10 Secondary Screening Criteria for Freight Rail Opportunity Concepts
Market growth
Score Industry Economic Stakeholder Scale of
(population, Timeline
(points) support viability interests investment
employment)
Short / Most High
High Favorable
Comparative evaluation among survey respondents. Low / Most
3 Concept can facilitate The project is Favorable
The opportunity concept (rail-served site or transload
freight movement by two expected to be
facility) that receives more favorable responses Under $10M
or more modes. operational in fewer receives a high rating.
than five years.
Moderate Moderate
Moderate
The project is Comparative evaluation among survey respondents. Moderate
2 Concept can facilitate expected to be The opportunity concept (rail-served site or transload Between $10M and
freight movement by operational in greater facility) that receives fewer favorable responses $50M
one mode. than five years but receives a moderate rating.
fewer than ten years.
Long / Least
Low Favorable
Low High / Least
1 A low rating is not The project is Favorable
applicable to this expected to be Limited interest among survey respondents.
criterion. Greater than $50M
operational in more
than ten years.
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Prioritization Analysis
The results of the prioritization analysis are summarized in the following sections. A detailed assessment of the
prioritization analysis can be found in Appendix C.
PRIMARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Table 11 displays the results of the prioritization analysis of primary screening criteria for the opportunity concepts.
Table 11 Prioritization Analysis of Primary Screening Criteria
Primary Screening Criteria
Are there existing Is there existing
Does this align with Is there availability Has the concept
studies with a (multimodal,
regional strategies for integration with been developed and Score
preliminary intermodal)
and policies? other infrastructure? advanced?
feasibility plan? connectivity?
Bedford Passenger Rail Stop
Yes Yes Yes Yes No 4
Transit-Oriented Development at Lynchburg Kemper Street Station
Yes No Yes No Yes 3
Rail-Served Site
Yes No Yes No Yes 3
Transload Facility
Yes No Yes No Yes 3
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SECONDARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Table 12 displays the results of the prioritization analysis of the secondary screening for the passenger rail opportunity
concepts.
Table 12 Prioritization Analysis of Secondary Screening Criteria – Passenger Rail Opportunity Concepts
Secondary Screening Criteria
Stakeholder Scale of
Market Growth Timeline Walkability Ridership Score
interest Investment
Bedford Passenger Rail Stop
3 3 2 1 3 2 14
Transit-Oriented Development at Lynchburg Kemper Street Station
2 1 3 3 1 1 11
Table 13 displays the results of the prioritization analysis of the secondary screening for the freight rail opportunity
concepts.
Table 13 Prioritization Analysis of Secondary Screening Criteria – Freight Rail Opportunity Concepts
Secondary Screening Criteria
Market growth,
Industry Economic Stakeholder Scale of
(population, Timeline Score
Support Viability Interests Investment
employment)
Rail-Served Site
2 3 3 3 3 3 17
Transload Facility
3 3 2 2 2 2 14
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Results of MCA
The results of the MCA are displayed in Table 14.
Table 14 Results of Multicriteria Analysis
Compilation of Findings
Opportunity Concept Screening Criteria 1 Screening Criteria 2 Total
Passenger Rail Opportunity Concept
Bedford Passenger
4 14 18
Rail Stop
Transit-Oriented
Development at
3 11 14
Lynchburg Kemper
Street Station
Freight Rail Opportunity Concept
Rail-Served Site 3 17 20
Transload Facility 3 14 17
Per the results of the MCA, the following opportunity concepts advanced to the EIA
conducted in Chapter 4:
Bedford passenger rail stop
Rail-served site
Transload facility
While the Transit-Oriented Development at the Lynchburg Kemper Street Station
opportunity concept has strong development potential, the City of Lynchburg recently
received the Thriving Communities grant program under the Complete Neighborhood
Community of Practice grant to further advance this concept. The Thriving Communities
grant award will provide technical assistance and advance the planning stages of the
opportunity concept. Upon completion of the planning work, the impacts of the
opportunity concept on the study area will be further understood, allowing for the
completion of an EIA.
Site Selection
After identifying the recommended freight opportunity concepts, the Study reviewed
suitable locations in the study area to situate a rail-served site and transload facility
using the Virginia Economic Development Partnership (VEDP) sites and buildings
database, through interviews with LRBA and its member localities, and through
interviews with CSX, NS, and VEDP.
DRPT engaged with representatives of VEDP, the railroads, and local/regional
economic developers to further investigate the site suitability of the priority sites for
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development as a rail-served site or transload facility. Table 15 summarizes the
evaluation of potentially suitable sites.
Table 15 Evaluation and Rating of Priority Sites
Suitability
Site Name Address Description
Rating
- Site is privately owned.
- Existing rail infrastructure.
311 Mitchell Bell - Power line runs through property and there is a
Rd., Madison major substation nearby.
Dillard Tract Tier 1
Heights VA - Recommend roadway upgrades at the
(Amherst County) intersection of Mitchell Bell Road and Virginia
Route 130.
- Excellent access to US 29 is an advantage.
1100 Mount
- Site could be used as a layover/transfer facility for
Athos Road,
freight from the Port of Virginia by rail.
Mount Athos Site Lynchburg VA Tier 2
- Site is currently used as a lay down yard for steel
(Campbell
companies.
County)
- Site is owned by the Town of Amherst.
Barnes 173 Brockman - Site is near interchange with U.S. Route 60 and
Brockman Park Drive, U.S. Route 29, making it a strategic location based
Tier 2
Business and Amherst VA on highway infrastructure.
Industrial Park (Amherst County) - A creek runs through the site and there are some
topographic challenges, necessitating site work.
- Privately owned.
Forest Road and
- Not currently served by public sewer, limiting the
Little Otter Coral Lane,
Tier 2 potential as a manufacturing, but utilities could be
Business Park Bedford VA
extended if need be.
(Bedford County)
- Sewer capacity not crucial for transload facility.
Figure 7 displays the potential locations for the selected opportunity concepts as well as
the rating of priority sites.
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Figure 7 Potential Locations for Opportunity Concepts and Rating of Priority Sites
Source: STV Inc.
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Chapter 4: Economic Analysis
The objective of the economic analysis is to determine the potential economic impacts
and assess the overall return on investment of the most viable opportunity concepts
documented in Chapter 3: the Bedford passenger rail stop, a transload facility, and a
rail-served site.
Economic Impact Analysis
Potential economic impacts of the most viable opportunity concepts are determined
through an EIA.14
EIA quantifies a potential project’s direct, indirect, and induced effects on
employment and economic activity.
EIA considers positive impacts of investment and not the costs to the project
sponsor(s).
Common EIA metrics: job creation, labor income, gross state product (GSP), economic
output, and tax revenue.
Benefit-Cost Analysis
The overall return on investment (ROI) of the most viable opportunity concepts through
a benefit-cost analysis (BCA).
BCA is a process to identify, quantify, and compare expected benefits and costs
of a proposed project.
The most widely measures to compare benefits to costs is the Benefit-Cost Ratio
(BCR = Benefits / Costs)
BCR > 1.0 means benefits outweigh, and the project could be a good
investment.
BCR < 1.0 means costs outweigh and the project might not be a worthwhile
investment.
For example, a Project with a BCA of 2.0 means that for every $1 invested, the
financial benefit or return (ROI) of the Project is $2. This yields a ROI of 100
percent; for every $1 invested, the Project sponsor would receive an additional
$1 back.
Justification for Both Types of Analysis
While BCA can help outline the expected costs and benefits associated with the
project, it is challenging to predict all the factors or events (e.g., changes in market
demand, changes in construction costs) that may impact the financial success (or
failure) of the project. Therefore, the BCA must be used in conjunction with the EIA to
make a well-informed decision.
14 This analysis utilizes the IMPLAN economic model developed by Minnesota IMPLAN Group, Inc. This
model can forecast how a change in economic activity or policy affects a region’s economy. IMPLAN
provides the types of output the analyses requires, including the spillover impacts on the rest of Virginia
resulting from changes in the economy activity in the study area.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
EIA provides compelling and defensible measures that help communicate the potential
impact of the project on generating economic value to the state of Virginia (e.g., jobs
and wage creation).
The high-level estimates yield by the EIA and BCA conducted as part of the Study can
be used to:
“Make the case” for necessary funding and support for the most viable
opportunity concepts.
Communicate the broader role of passenger rail and freight rail improvements in
Virginia.
Provide guidelines for future strategic planning. The Study outcomes provide
data and a blueprint for economic developers to communicate to key
stakeholders the expected benefits of investments that improve and expand
passenger and freight rail.
Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Concept
This section outlines the factors driving the economic impacts of the Bedford passenger
rail stop opportunity concept. It estimates the combined direct, indirect, and induced
economic impacts this concept would have in the region15 where the initial effects would
occur, and the spillover effect that this concept would have in the rest of Virginia.
Concept Definition
The concept includes all the elements necessary to create a new passenger rail stop at
Bedford, including the station platform, building, parking area, ingress/egress, and new
tangent track sidings. NS currently owns the proposed station area property. NS has an
agreement with the Virginia Passenger Rail Authority (VPRA) to sell the right-of-way
necessary to develop the station. The 2021 Bedford Regional Passenger Rail Stop
Study, which included extensive stakeholder outreach and collaboration with NS,
identified a preferred site for the rail stop on Macon Street East. This is shown in Figure
4.
Factors that Drive Economic Impacts
The Bedford passenger rail stop is expected to generate the following economic
impacts:
Direct and total short-term economic impacts from capital expenditures to
build the Bedford passenger rail stop over the 2026-2029 project implementation
period.
Direct and total long-term economic impacts from ongoing operating and
maintenance (O&M) expenditures to maintain the Bedford passenger rail stop in
15 The region for the Bedford Rail Stop concept includes Bedford, Campbell, and Roanoke counties, and
the cities of Roanoke and Salem (located in Roanoke County). These three counties cover the
geographic area of the ridership projections at Lynchburg, Roanoke and Bedford cities provided in the
BCA in support of the Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Project application for funding under the FY23-24
CRISI grant program. This is the region where the primary economic impacts are expected to occur and
therefore, it is considered the study area for the estimation of the economic impacts of this concept.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
a state of good repair over the 2030-2049 operating period.
Direct and total long-term economic impacts from tourist spending in the
region from train passengers making leisure trips due to the operation of the
Bedford passenger rail stop over the 2030-2049 operating period.
Direct and total long-term economic impacts from improved business
productivity and additional disposable income to be generated by the operation of
the Bedford passenger rail stop over the 2030-2049 operating period.
Direct impacts from reduced carbon and non-carbon emissions in the region
and new station amenities due to the operation of the Bedford passenger rail
stop over the 2030-2049 operating period. Emissions reduction benefits are not
tied directly to economic factors but are expected to increase attractiveness of
the region. Because emissions benefits and the new station amenities do not
have a multiplier effect on the regional economy, they are not expected to
generate wider economic impacts.
Facility Capital Costs
Economic impacts from the Bedford passenger rail stop initially occur as a result of the
actual capital expenditures on the facility. Capital expenditures are of economic value to
Bedford County and the rest of Virginia because infrastructure development expenditure
increases the GSP and supports the creation and retention of engineering, architectural,
and related professional services as well as construction-related jobs. Once the
construction phase is complete, subsequent expenditures are required to operate the
new station, which also results in additional economic impacts for Bedford County and
the rest of Virginia.
The Bedford passenger rail stop’s capital costs include design/engineering costs and
construction costs (Table 1). Design/engineering costs are expected to be spent in 2026
and 2027, and construction costs are expected in 2028 and 2029. Total capital costs
amount to $17.8 million in 2024 dollars, discounted to 2022 dollars at 3.1 percent.16
The total economic impacts from Bedford passenger rail stop’s capital expenditures
over the 2026-2029 period are presented in Table 2. Capital expenditures are expected
to support 210 jobs in the Commonwealth of Virginia. These jobs will add $11.6 million
in labor income, generate $16.2 million in GSP, lead to $33.3 million in economic output
in the Commonwealth, and yield $4.0 million in federal, state, and local tax revenue over
the project implementation and construction period (all in 2024$).
16 As requested by the USDOT in the Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance for Discretionary Grant
Programs, released in December 2023.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 16 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Capital Costs, 2026-2029 (2024$, discounted to 2022)
Year Design and Engineering Construction Total Capital Cost
2026 $532,000 $0 $532,000
2027 $1,033,000 $0 $1,033,000
2028 $0 $8,266,000 $8,266,000
2029 $0 $8,018,000 $8,018,000
Total $1,565,000 $16,284,000 $17,849,000
Source: Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) in support of the Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Project application for
funding under the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) FY 2023-24 Consolidated Rail Infrastructure
and Safety Improvements (CRISI).
Table 17 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Total Economic Impacts from Capital Expenditures,
2026-2029
Employment Labor Income Output
Geographic Area GSP (2024$) Taxes (2024$)
(Jobs) (2024$) (2024$)
Study Area* 190 $10,271,000 $13,718,000 $28,669,000 $3,453,000
Rest of Virginia 20 $1,368,000 $2,519,000 $4,669,000 $578,000
Commonwealth of
210 $11,639,000 $16,237,000 $33,338,000 $4,031,000
Virginia
Employment
Year Labor Income GSP Output Taxes
(Jobs)
2026 5 $347,000 $484,000 $995,000 $120,300
2027 10 $674,000 $940,000 $1,929,000 $233,300
2028 100 $5,390,000 $7,520,000 $15,439,000 $1,866,800
2028 95 $5,228,000 $7,293,000 $14,975,000 $1,810,700
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
Notes: *The Bedford-Campbell-Roanoke Region includes Bedford, Campbell, and Roanoke counties, and the
cities of Roanoke and Salem. Total economic impact includes direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
Facility Operating and Maintenance Costs
O&M costs of the Bedford passenger rail stop include the operating costs of the new
station and the additional Amtrak operating costs because of the increase in route hours
from stopping at the new station in Bedford. The annual operating costs of the new
station are estimated at $111,300 (in undiscounted 2024$) and the additional annual
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Amtrak operating costs are estimated at $21,000 (in undiscounted 2024$). The total
O&M costs of the Bedford Passenger Rail Stop will amount to $1.6 million (in 2024$
discounted to 2022 at 3.1 percent) over the 20-year operating period, from 2030 to
2049.
The total economic impacts from O&M expenditures of the Bedford passenger rail stop
over the 2030-2049 period are presented in Table 18. Over the 20-year operating
period17, the new stop is expected to support 20 jobs in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
These jobs will add nearly $647,000 in labor income, generate $1.3 million in GSP, lead
to $2.8 million in economic output in the Commonwealth of Virginia, and yield $284,000
in federal, state, and local tax revenue (2024$). The annual O&M costs are expected to
support, on average, one job and generate $32,400 in labor income, $64,600 in GSP,
$137,500 in output, and $14,200 in tax revenue, annually, in the Commonwealth of
Virginia (2024$).
Table 18 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Total Long-Term Economic Impacts from Facility O&M
Expenditures, 2030-2049
Labor
Geographic Employment Output Taxes
Income GSP (2024$)
Area (Jobs) (2024$) (2024$)
(2024$)
Study Area* 15 $552,000 $1,111,000 $2,407,000 $242,000
Rest of Virginia 5 $95,000 $181,000 $343,000 $42,000
Commonwealth
20 $647,000 $1,292,000 $2,750,000 $284,000
of Virginia
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
Notes: *The Bedford-Campbell-Roanoke Region includes Bedford, Campbell and Roanoke counties, and the
cities of Roanoke and Salem. Total economic impact includes direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
Tourism and Visitor Spending from Amtrak Riders
Visitors contribute to the regional economy by spending money to purchase goods and
services from hotels, restaurants, retailers, transportation providers, entertainment
venues, and other attractions. This section estimates the total spending by visitors
arriving to the region by train because of the new Bedford passenger rail stop.
Historical data on tourist spending in Virginia by Amtrak riders indicate that 353,000
tourists who utilized Amtrak services in FY 2015 spent $2.4 million in the
Commonwealth. Similar statistics in FY 2016 indicate that 331,000 tourists who utilized
Amtrak services spent $2.3 million in the Commonwealth.18 Based on this historical
data, this analysis estimates the average spending by tourists. Using the distribution of
17 The 20-year operating period comes from the Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) in support of the Bedford
Passenger Rail Stop Project application for funding under the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) FY
2023-24 Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety Improvements (CRISI) grant program.
18 Amtrak’s Contribution to Virginia in FY 2015.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
passenger trains by trip purpose shown in Figure 8, this analysis estimates that 57
percent of train passengers make leisure trips. This includes 39 percent of train
passengers who make trips to visit friends and family plus 18 percent of train
passengers who make vacation and recreation trips.
Figure 8 Distribution of Amtrak Riders by Trip Purpose by Corridor Market
Source: Amtrak’s Economic Contribution in Fiscal Year 2015.
To estimate the annual number of train passengers making leisure trips, this analysis
applies the share of train passengers making leisure trips (i.e., 57 percent) to the
changes in ridership at Lynchburg, Roanoke, and Bedford as a result of the new
Bedford Passenger Rail Stop over the period 2030-2049. Then the annual number of
train passengers making leisure trips multiplied by the average spending by tourists
yields the visitor spending to be generated by the new Bedford passenger rail stop. The
estimated annual visitor spending totals $1.9 million (in 2024$ discounted to 2022 at 3.1
percent).
The total economic impacts from additional visitor spending as a result of the operation
of the Bedford passenger rail stop over the 2030-2049 period are presented in Table 19.
The new station is expected to support 20 jobs in Virginia. These jobs will add $694,000
in labor income, generate $1.4 million in GSP, lead to $2.3 million in economic output in
the Commonwealth, and yield $390,000 in federal, state, and local tax revenue over the
20-year operating period. This represents, on average, 1.0 additional jobs, $34,700 in
labor income, $135,800 in GSP, $68,450 in output, and $19,500 annual tax revenue in
the Commonwealth of Virginia.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 19 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Total Long-Term Economic Impacts from Additional
Visitor Spending, 2030-2049
Geographic Employment Labor Income Output Taxes
GSP (2024$)
Area (Jobs) (2024$) (2024$) (2024$)
Study Area* 15 $621,000 $1,237,000 $2,085,000 $359,000
Rest of Virginia 5 $73,000 $132,000 $226,000 $31,000
Commonwealth
20 $694,000 $1,369,000 $2,311,000 $390,000
of Virginia
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
Notes: *The Bedford-Campbell-Roanoke Region includes Bedford, Campbell and Roanoke counties, and the
cities of Roanoke and Salem. Total economic impact includes direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
Facility Users and Non-Users Impacts
RIDERSHIP FORECASTS
Ridership forecasts are developed using the 2018 baseline ridership forecast from the
Bedford Regional Passenger Stop Study,19 actual ridership data from 2021-2023, and
average annual growth rates from the 2022 Virginia Statewide Rail Plan.20 The Bedford
Regional Passenger Stop Study estimated the expected changes in ridership at
Lynchburg, Roanoke, and Bedford as a result of the new Amtrak stop at Bedford. To
project the 2018 baseline ridership over the 2024-2049 period, actual ridership data
from 2021-2023 was apportioned according to the 2018 share of ridership at each
station and the average annual growth rates.21 The changes in ridership at Lynchburg,
Roanoke, and Bedford as a result of the new Bedford passenger rail stop are shown in
Table 20.
19 Virginia DRPT. Bedford Regional Passenger Rail Stop Study - October 2021.
20 Virginia Statewide Rail Plan 2022. Retrieved Virginia Statewide Rail Plan (arcgis.com).
21 The Source of growth rates is the Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) in support of the Bedford Passenger Rail Stop
Project application for funding under the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) FY 2023-24
Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety Improvements (CRISI).
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 20 Impact of Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Forecasted Changes in Annual Ridership by
Station
South of Washington, DC Through Washington, DC
Roanoke Roanoke
Year Lynchburg (Diversions Bedford Year Lynchburg (Diversions Bedford
to Bedford) to Bedford)
2030 6,926 (6,093) 32,476 2030 - (13,138) 9,762
2035 7,104 (6,362) 33,612 2035 - (13,719) 10,103
2040 7,287 (6,644) 34,788 2040 - (14,326) 10,457
2045 7,475 (6,938) 36,005 2045 - (14,960) 10,823
2049 7,628 (7,183) 37,009 2049 - (15,488) 11,124
Source: Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) in support of the Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Project application for
funding under the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) FY 2023-24 Consolidated Rail Infrastructure
and Safety Improvements (CRISI).
Notes: AAGR ridership for Lynchburg and Roanoke stations comes from the 2022 Virginia Statewide Rail Plan.
AAGR ridership for Bedford station was estimated as the average of the AAGR ridership for Lynchburg
and Roanoke stations.
PUBLIC BENEFITS
The direct benefits/disbenefits of the Bedford passenger rail stop over the 20-year
operating period are summarized in Table 21. The new station is expected to generate
$31.2 million (2024$ discounted to 2022 at 3.1 percent)22 in benefits over the 2030-2049
period. This analysis assumes that the distribution of Amtrak riders by trip purpose in
the Northeast State Routes shown in Figure 8 is a good representation of the
distribution of train passengers by trip purpose in the Bedford region. The shares shown
in Table 22 are used to allocate the direct benefits/disbenefits generated by the new rail
stop among commuters, business travelers, and people making “all other” purpose trips
in the Bedford region.
22 As requested by the USDOT in the Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance for Discretionary Grant Programs,
released in December 2023.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 21 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Direct Impacts, 2030-2049
In 2024$ (discounted to
Benefit/
Change to Baseline 2022 at 3.1 percent)
Disbenefit
Reduced Reinstating intercity passenger services at Bedford will $2,423,000
Fatalities lead to a modal shift from private passenger vehicles to
and Crashes rail for transportation users in the region. This reduction
in auto VMT on local and regional roads will lead to a
reduction in road crashes in the region.
Travel Time The project will lead to an increase in travel time for (a) $-11,878,000
Disbenefit existing rail passengers on the Amtrak route from the
introduction of the Bedford station and (b) new rail
passengers because of longer travel times to
destinations along the Amtrak route when compared to
auto travel.
Vehicle The project will lead to a modal shift from private $28,779,000
Operating passenger vehicles to rail. This modal diversion will
Cost lead to vehicle operating cost savings for each diverted
Savings user because of reduced auto VMT.
External The avoidance of long-distance automobile travel, in $6,929,000
Highway addition to shorter automobile journeys to rail services
User Cost (i.e., traveling to Bedford rather than
Savings Lynchburg/Roanoke) will lead to fewer cars on local
and regional roads. This will reduce noise, congestion,
and safety risks for external highway users.
Emissions The project will lead to a modal shift from private $3,998,000
Savings passenger vehicles to rail for some transportation users
in the region. The reduced auto VMT on local and
regional roads will also lead to fewer air pollutants.
New Station New and existing intercity rail passengers at the $946,000
Amenities Bedford Station will benefit from a range of amenities
(e.g., electronic real-time information displays,
information/emergency buttons, seating, weather
protection, surveillance cameras, bike facilities, car
access facilities, taxi pickup/drop-off).
Total Benefits/Disbenefits $31,197,000
Source: BCA in support of the Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Project application for funding under the
Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) FY 2023-24 Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety
Improvements (CRISI).
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 22 Distribution of Amtrak Riders by Trip Purpose in the Bedford-Campbell-Roanoke
Region
Trip Purpose Proportion of Trip Purposes
Commuting to Work 11%
Business Travel 29%
All Other Purposes* 60%
Source: Analysis based on the distribution of Amtrak riders by trip purpose in the Northeast State Routes
provided by Amtrak’s Economic Contribution in Fiscal Year 2015. Retrieved
https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/projects/dotcom/english/public/documents/corporate/nationalfactsh
eets/Amtrak-Economic-Contribution-Brochure-083016.pdf
Notes: *All Other purposes include visiting friends & family, vacation & recreation, and school trips.
Figure 9 and Figure 10 illustrate how benefits are translated into model inputs for
IMPLAN. The direct economic impacts on business trips resulting from the operation of
the Bedford passenger rail stop are translated into the necessary model inputs for
IMPLAN in Figure 9. The indirect and induced benefits arising from the direct benefits
are forecast using the IMPLAN model for the Commonwealth of Virginia. The model
generates estimates of the total economic benefits of reduced vehicle operating costs,
traffic crashes, and congestion, in terms of jobs, personal income, GSP, economic
output, and tax revenue.
Figure 9 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Model Inputs for Business Trips
Source: Cambridge Systematics.
The direct economic impacts on non-business trips (i.e., commuting to work and all
other trip purposes) resulting from the operation of the Bedford passenger rail stop over
a 20-year operating period are translated into the necessary model inputs for IMPLAN in
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Figure 10. The indirect and induced benefits arising from the direct benefits are forecast
using the IMPLAN model for the Commonwealth of Virginia. The model generates
estimates of the total economic benefits of reduced vehicle operating costs, congestion,
and traffic crashes in terms of jobs, personal income, value added (or GSP), economic
output, and tax revenue.
Figure 10 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Model Inputs for Non-Business Trips
Source: Cambridge Systematics.
The total economic impacts from improved business productivity and additional
disposable income resulting from the operation of the Bedford passenger rail stop over
the 2030-2049 period are presented in Table 23. Considering these factors, the new
station is expected to support 90 jobs in the Commonwealth of Virginia. These jobs will
add $4.3 million in labor income, generate $8.4 million in GSP, lead to $16.4 million in
economic output in the Commonwealth, and yield $2.0 million in federal, state, and local
tax revenue over the 20-year operating period. This represents, on average, 5 additional
jobs, $213,000 in labor income, $420,800 in GSP, $819,000 in output, and $97,500 in
tax revenue, annually, in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 23 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Total Long-Term Economic Impacts from Improved
Business Productivity and Additional Disposable Income, 2030-2049
Geographic Employment Labor Income GSP Output Taxes
Area (Jobs) (2024$) (2024$) (2024$) (2024$)
Study Area* 80 $3,667,000 $7,412,000 $14,520,000 $1,720,000
Rest of Virginia 10 $593,000 $1,003,000 $1,859,000 $230,000
Commonwealth
of Virginia
90 $4,260,000 $8,415,000 $16,379,000 $1,950,000
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
Notes: *The Bedford-Campbell-Roanoke Region includes Bedford, Campbell, and Roanoke counties, and the
cities of Roanoke and Salem. Total economic impact includes direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
Grand Total Long-Term Economic Impacts
Table 24 presents the grand total long-term economic impacts to be generated by the
Bedford Passenger Rail Stop O&M expenditures, improved business productivity, and
additional disposable income. The new station is expected to support a total of 130 jobs
in the Commonwealth of Virginia. These jobs will add $5.6 million in labor income,
generate $11.1 million in GSP, lead to $21.4 million in economic output in the
Commonwealth, and yield $2.6 million in federal, state, and local tax revenue over the
20-year operating period.
Table 24 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Grand Total Long-Term Economic Impacts, 2030-2049
Employment Labor Income GSP Output Taxes
From
(Jobs) (2024$) (2024$) (2024$) (2024$)
Facility O&M Expenditures 20 $647,000 $1,292,000 $2,750,000 $284,000
Additional Visitor
Spending from Passenger 20 $694,000 $1,369,000 $2,311,000 $390,000
Trains making leisure trips
Improved Business
Productivity and Increased 90 $4,260,000 $8,415,000 $16,379,000 $1,950,000
Disposable Income
Commonwealth of Virginia 130 $5,601,000 $11,076,000 $21,440,000 $2,624,000
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
The Bedford passenger rail stop will also increase the attractiveness of the region not
explained by economic factors. Specifically, the new station will reduce carbon and non-
carbon emissions, valued at $3.9 million (in 2024 dollars discounted to 2022 at 3.1
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
percent) over the 2030-2049 period23 which will help improve air quality and public
health in the region. The new station amenities, valued at $6.9 million (in 2024 dollars
discounted to 2022 at 3.1 percent) over the 2030-2049 period24 will improve the quality
and comfort to be experienced by existing and new rail users. These benefits do not
have a multiplier effect on the regional economy and therefore, they are not input into
the IMPLAN economic model for the Bedford-Campbell-Roanoke region.
Return on Investment
Table 25 shows that the Bedford passenger rail stop is an efficient investment. Each
dollar invested in the Bedford passenger rail stop would return $1.95 in benefits to the
study area.
Table 25 Bedford Passenger Rail Stop – Benefit-Cost Ratio and Return on Investment
Item Value
Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Construction Costs, 2026-2029 = C $17.8 million (2024$, discounted to
2022)
Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Benefits, 2030-2049 = B $34.8 million (2024$, discounted to
2022)
Net Present Value (NPV) = B - C $17.0 million (2024$, discounted to
2022)
Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) = B / C 1.95
Return on Investment (ROI) = [(B – C) / C] x 100% 95%
Source: Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) in support of the Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Project application for
funding under the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) FY 2023-24 Consolidated Rail Infrastructure
and Safety Improvements (CRISI).
Transload Facility Concept
This section presents the factors driving the economic impacts of the transload facility
concept, the transload facility build-out25 capacity, the estimated facility capital and O&M
costs, the staffing requirements, and the direct and total (combined direct, indirect, and
induced) economic impacts to be generated by this facility.
23 Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) in support of the Bedford Passenger Rail Stop Project application for
funding under the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) FY 2023-24 Consolidated Rail Infrastructure
and Safety Improvements (CRISI).
24 Ibid.
25 Build-out refers to the state in which the facility has been fully constructed and in use.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Concept Definition
A rail-to-truck transload facility is a location where goods and supplies are transferred
between rail and truck. Transload facilities act as intermediaries positioned in between
the transportation networks of one mode and another, allowing for the effective transfer
of goods from one mode of transportation to the other. They are frequently intentionally
located to enable the movement of goods between railroads and other modes of
transportation, such as trucks (and in other cases, ships). They may include facilities for
warehousing, storage, and handling of goods during the transfer.
Factors that Drive Economic Impacts
The envisaged transload facility is expected to increase business activity in the study
area and the Commonwealth of Virginia. For the purposes of this element of the Study,
the study area comprises Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, and Campbell counties and
the City of Lynchburg. The stimulus to the increased business activity will include:
Short-term economic impacts generated by the transload facility construction
expenditures in the study area and spillover impacts in the rest of Virginia.
Long-term economic impacts generated by the ongoing facility O&M and staffing
expenditures in the study area and spillover impacts in the rest of Virginia.
Long-term economic impacts generated by the freight transportation cost savings
on industries in the study area and spillover impacts in the rest of Virginia.
External benefits which will be national and include reduced carbon emissions
and reduced transportation-related fatalities and injuries.
Build Out Facility Capacity
Based on analysis of the 2022 Virginia Statewide Rail Plan data from the Freight
Analysis Framework Database version 5 (FAF5), it was determined that an estimated
395,000 tons per year could be transloaded in the region. Capacity requirements for the
transload facility are developed based on this level of freight and anticipated freight
types, Table 26 presents these requirements.
Table 26 Transload Facility - Estimated Facility Build-out Capacity
Item Value
Rail length to load and unload trains (feet) 4,000
Estimated number of freight trains per day (a) 0.538
Number of railcars per train (b) 25
Number of days per year the facility will be open for business (c) 260
Tons per railcar (d) 113
Facility Build-out Capacity (tons per year) = (a) x (b) x (c) x (d) = 395,000
Source: STV analysis based on information from the stockholder interviews.
To accommodate this amount of transload freight, a warehousing/cross-docking facility
of approximately 107,000 square feet (sf) and approximately 15,000 square feet of
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
office administration/freight arrangement space is included in the facility build-out, for a
total of 122,000 square feet of space.
Facility Capital and Operating & Maintenance Costs
FACILITY CAPITAL COSTS
The total construction cost of the build-out transload facility is estimated at $15.6 million
(2024$), The estimated construction costs include the following:
4,000 ft of rail @ $2 million per mile26 = ~ $1,515,150
106,960 sf warehouse @ $70 per sf 27 = $7,487,200
14,760 sf office/admin space @ $70 per sf 28 (assume as part of warehouse
structure) = $1,033,200
Sitework, utilities, engineering, planning, and design, 5 percent contingency29 =
$5,547,940
The construction of the build-out transload facility is expected to occur over one year.
FACILITY OPERATING & MAINTENANCE COSTS
In addition to the one-time construction costs, there will be ongoing O&M costs to be
approximately $525,382 per year (2024$). The estimated annual O&M costs include the
following:
Warehouse and office O&M is $4/sf x 121,720 sf30 = $486,880/year
4,000 ft of rail maintenance @ $2.77/ft31 = $11,066/year
Assume 2 lane miles of road in the facility @ 13,718/lane mile32 = $27,436/year
FACILITY STAFFING
The staff to run the build-out transload facility and move freight is 82 full-time
employees. Broken down by type, staff for the facility includes:
26 TRB: National Cooperative Rail Research Program (NCRRP) Report 1: Alternative Funding and
Financing Mechanisms for Passenger and Freight Rail Projects (2015). Retrieved
https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/22149/chapter/5.
27 How Much Does It Cost to Build a Warehouse? Retrieved https://strongbuildingsystems.com/how-
much-does-it-cost-to-build-a-warehouse/.
28 How Much Does It Cost to Build a Warehouse? https://strongbuildingsystems.com/how-much-does-it-
cost-to-build-a-warehouse/.
29 Estimate based on “Rail-Truck Transload Facility Project BUILD FY2019 Grant Application
Spokane, Washington Benefit Cost Analysis Appendix B”. Retrieved
https://business.spokaneairports.net/core/files/business/uploads/files/Appendix%20B%20-
%20BCA%20Summary.pdf.
30 Warehousing and Fulfillment: Warehousing Services Costs, Pricing, Rates and Fees. Retrieved
https://www.warehousingandfulfillment.com/resources/warehousing-services-costs-pricing-rates-and-fees/.
31 Railroad Costs- Train Magazine. Retrieved https://cs.trains.com/trn/f/111/p/158493/1751148.aspx.
32 Reason Foundation: 27th Annual Highway Report: Maintenance Disbursements per Mile.
Retrieved https://reason.org/policy-study/27th-annual-highway-report/maintenance-disbursements-ratio/.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
71 warehouse workers (warehouse size: 106,960 sq ft; assume 1 warehouse
worker per 1,500 sf)33
10 admin workers (13.8 percent x 71 warehouse workers)34
1 worker for groundskeeping/maintenance (assumed)
Expected Freight to be Handled by the Facility
The amount of freight expected to be handled by the facility was determined by the
types and amounts of cargo best suited for transloading in the central Virginia region.
Sizing the facility to handle the freight required surveying and interviewing businesses in
the region, who are significant users of transportation services, by compiling and
analyzing the information contained in the 2022 Virginia State Rail Plan, and analyzing
commodity flow data extracted from the FAF5, Data Tabulation Tool.35
Based on analyses of this information, candidate commodity types, tonnage shares, and
shipment distances are identified. Table 27 details these freight types likely to be
transloaded if a facility were built in the region.
33 Metropolitan Concept. Measuring Employment. Local Planning Handbook. How to Measure
Employment Intensity and Capacity (November 2016). Appropriate rate = 1,500 square feet per
warehouse worker.
34 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
Transportation arrangement and support types of employment to warehousing employment is
13.8percent of warehouse staff workers based on state-wide ratio of warehouse workers to transportation
arrangement and support personnel.
35 Freight Analysis Framework 5: https://faf.ornl.gov/faf5/dtt_total.aspx.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 27 Distribution of Commodities by Shipping Distances in the ‘Rest of Virginia” in 2025
(Forecast)
Share of Total
750 – 1,000 - 1,500 - Over
Commodity Commodity 250-499 500-749
999 1,499 2,000 2,000
Type Tonnage in miles miles
miles miles miles miles
Central VA, 2022
Waste or Scrap 35% 86.6% 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.8%
Materials
Logs, Lumber, 29% 2.6% 3.7% 91.5% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0%
Wood Products
Chemicals or 16% 61.6% 8.3% 9.1% 18.3% 0.6% 2.1%
Allied Products
Pulp, Paper, or 14% 0.5% 49.1% 21.2% 0.0% 25.7% 3.5%
Allied Products
Clay, Concrete, 5% 84.1% 14.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Glass, or Stone
Sources: (1) Share of total commodity tonnage in Central Virginia come from 2022 Virginia Statewide Rail Plan;
and (2) Distribution of commodities by shipping distance in the “rest of Virginia” come from the Freight
Analysis Framework Database, version 5 (FAF5).
Estimated Direct Impacts
The direct impacts of the transload facility will include the aforementioned direct capital
(one-time) outlays, the ongoing annual operations and maintenance expenditures, and
the employment of personnel to staff the facility.
Direct impacts also include the reduction in total shipping costs to the businesses in the
study area and in the Commonwealth of Virginia. To determine the shipping cost
savings associated with the 395,000 annual tons envisaged to move through the build-
out transload facility, this effort identified the difference in shipping rates between truck
and rail, multiplied by ton-miles of freight. The commodities and shipping distances
previously presented in Table 27 are applied to the 395,000 annual tons to be moved
through the build-out transload facility to estimate annual ton-miles for that freight. The
freight transloaded through the build-out facility equates to approximately 271.6 million
ton-miles of freight.
The ton-miles are multiplied by the difference in ton-mile shipping costs between truck
and rail to determine the reduction in shipping costs for the transloaded freight. The
following freight rates are used in the calculations:
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Rail shipping rate, 4.6 cents per ton-mile36
Truck shipping rate, 10.6 cents per ton-mile37 (calculated as $2.44 per mile / 23
tons freight load, 10.6 cents per ton-mile)
Net truck to rail transload shipping cost savings for businesses, 6.0 cents per ton-
mile
The annual shipping cost savings to businesses is estimated at $16.3 million per year.
These cost savings are then distributed among the industries using or producing the
commodities by applying the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics Transportation
Satellite Accounts (TSAs) that detailed the direct requirements of transportation
services per dollar of industry output.38 The TSAs are used to allocate the transportation
cost savings among the industries in the region and determine the direct impacts on
each industry’s output. These changes in industry output are used to perturb the
IMPLAN model to determine the total (combined direct, indirect, and induced) economic
impacts.
Estimated Total Economic Impacts
The direct impacts described in the previous section are run through IMPLAN to
calculate the total (combined direct, indirect, and induced) economic impacts of the
transload facility in the study area, the rest of Virginia, and the entire Commonwealth of
Virginia.
Table 28 shows the total short-term economic impacts of construction expenditures
during the one-year of construction. In summary, the construction of the transload
facility in the study area will generate 220 jobs, worth $9.6 million in labor income, and
increase GSP by $13.3 million for the Commonwealth (all in 2024$). Of these impacts,
95 percent of the jobs, 92 percent of wages, and 89 percent of GSP increases occur
within the study area.
Table 29 shows the total long-term economic impacts of annual O&M Cost and staffing
of the transload facility in the study area. Annual operation (including staffing) of the
transload facility will generate 200 jobs worth $8.6 million and increase GSP by $12.1
million for the Commonwealth annually (all in 2024$). Of these impacts, 95 percent of
the jobs, 92 percent of wages, and 88 percent of GSP increases occur within the study
area.
36 U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics: Average Freight Revenue per Ton-Mile. Retrieved
https://www.bts.gov/content/average-freight-revenue-ton-mile.
37 UBER Freight: A guide to freight trucking rates in 2024. Retrieved
https://www.uberfreight.com/blog/freight-trucking-rates-guide/.
38 U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics: Transportation Satellite Accounts. Retrieved
https://www.bts.gov/satellite-accounts.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 28 Transload Facility - Total Short-Term Economic Impacts of Construction Expenditures
over the One-year Construction Period
Geographic Employment Labor Income GSP Output
Taxes (2024$)
Area (Jobs) (2024$) (2024$) (2024$)
Study Area* 210 $8,800,000 $11,800,000 $25,000,000 $3,200,000
Rest of Virginia 10 $800,000 $1,500,000 $2,900,000 $300,000
Commonwealth 220 $9,600,000 $13,300,000 $27,900,000 $3,500,000
of Virginia
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
Notes: * Study rea comprises four counties (Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, and Campbell) and the City of
Lynchburg. Total economic impact includes direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
Table 29 Transload Facility - Long-Term Economic Impacts of Annual O&M Cost and Staffing,
20 Years
Employment Labor Income Output
Geographic Area GSP (2024$) Taxes (2024$)
(Jobs) (2024$) (2024$)
Study Area* 190 $7,900,000 $10,700,000 $22,700,000 $2,800,000
Rest of Virginia 10 $800,000 $1,400,000 $2,600,000 $300,000
Commonwealth of 200 $8,600,000 $12,100,000 $25,300,000 $3,200,000
Virginia
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
Notes: *The study area comprises four counties (Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, and Campbell) and the City of
Lynchburg. Total economic impact includes direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
Table 30 shows the total long-term economic impacts of annual freight transportation
cost savings of a transload facility in the study area. The impacts of reduced freight
costs would boost employment by 75 jobs worth $4.9 million in labor income and
increase GSP by $9.1 million for the Commonwealth (all in 2024$). Of these impacts, 80
percent of the jobs and wages increases and 82 percent of GSP increase occurs within
the study area.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 30 Transload Facility – Long-Term Economic Impacts of Annual Freight Transportation
Cost Savings, 20 Years
Geographic Employment Labor Income Output
GSP (2024$) Taxes (2024$)
Area (Jobs) (2024$) (2024$)
Study Area* 60 $3,900,000 $7,500,000 $20,400,000 $1,800,000
Rest of Virginia 15 $900,000 $1,600,000 $3,200,000 $400,000
Commonwealth 75 $4,900,000 $9,100,000 $23,600,000 $2,200,000
of Virginia
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
Notes: *The study area comprises four counties (Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, and Campbell) and the City of
Lynchburg. Total economic impact includes direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
Grand Total Long-Term Economic Impacts
Table 31 presents the annual total long-term economic impacts to be generated by the
transload facility’s annual O&M expenditures, staffing, and freight transportation cost
savings. The transload facility is expected to support a total of 275 jobs in the
Commonwealth of Virginia annually. These jobs will add $13.5 million in labor income,
generate $21.2 million in GSP, lead to $48.9 million in economic output in the
Commonwealth, and yield $5.4 million in federal, state, and local tax revenue annually
(all in 2024$).
Table 31 Transload Facility – Annual Total Long-Term Economic Impacts, 20 Years
Labor
Employment GSP Output
From Income Taxes (2024$)
(Jobs) (2024$) (2024$)
(2024$)
Annual O&M 200 $8,600,000 $12,100,000 $25,300,000 $3,200,000
Expenditures
Annual Freight 75 $4,900,000 $9,100,000 $23,600,000 $2,200,000
Transportation
Cost Savings
Commonwealth 275 $13,500,000 $21,200,000 $48,900,000 $5,400,000
of Virginia
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Return on Investment
Table 32 shows that the transload facility is an efficient investment. Each dollar invested
in the transload facility would return $1.46 in benefits.
Table 32 Transload Facility – Benefit-Cost Ratio and Return on Investment
Item Value
Transload Facility Construction Costs, 2025 = C $15,400 thousand
(2024$, discounted to 2022)
Transload Facility Benefits, 2026-2045 = B $22,500 thousand
(2024$, discounted to 2022)
Net Present Value (NPV) = B-C $7,100 thousand
(2024$, discounted 2022)
Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) = B / C 1.46
Return on Investment (ROI) = [ (B – C) / C ] x 100% 46%
Note: Benefits limited to freight cost savings to Virginia businesses. The analysis covers 20 years of benefits
and assumes a 10 percent per year ramp up (increase) to full capacity by year 10.
Other Benefits
In addition to the regional economic impacts described in the previous sectopm,
shipping the 271.6 million ton-miles of freight by rail versus truck is estimated to reduce
harmful emissions and transportation-related fatalities and injuries beyond Central
Virginia.
EMISSION DAMAGE COST SAVINGS
The shift in moving 271.6 million ton-miles from truck to rail has a significant reduction in
harmful emissions. Table 33 presents the emissions rates (in grams per ton-mile) for
freight truck and freight rail for relevant pollutants and the monetization rates used in
this analysis to estimate the emission damage cost savings to be generated by the
build-out transload facility.
The emissions reduction resulting from the operation of the build-out transload facility is
estimated to amount to $9.2 million annually (in 2024$). This includes an annual
reduction of carbon emissions of 32,000 metric tons.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 33 Freight Emissions and Reductions Due to Transloading
Freight Truck Freight Rail Emissions
Emissions
Emission Rates Emission Rates Damage Unit
Pollutant Type Reductions in
in 2019 in 2019 Cost in 2024
Metric Tons
(grams/ton-mile) (grams/ton-mile) ($/metric ton)
Hydrocarbons (HC) 0.02 0.0083 3.2 $2,621
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 0.19 0.0564 36.3 $80
Nitrogen Oxides (NOX) 0.45 0.2182 63.0 $21,597
Particulate Matter (PM10) 0.02 0.0075 3.4 $116,700
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 140.70 21.57 32,361.2 $250
Sources: (1) Emission rates come from A Modal Comparison of Domestic Freight Transportation Effects on the
General Public: 2001–2019, January 2022, Prepared for the U.S. National Waterways Foundation.
Prepared by the Texas Transportation Institute’s Center for Port and Waterways at Texas A&M
University; (2) Monetization rates for NOX and CO2 in 2022$ come from the “U.S. DOT, Benefit-Cost
Analysis Guidance for Discretionary Grant Programs, December 2023” inflated to 2024 dollars using U.S
DOT inflation adjustment factors from the U.S. DOT Bridge Investment Program Benefit-Cost Analysis
Tool (BIP BCA Tool v1.0.4 January 2024).; (3) Monetization rate for HC / VOC in 2018$ come from the
U.S. DOT, Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance for Discretionary Grant Programs, January 2020”- inflated to
2024 dollars using U.S DOT inflation adjustment factors from the U.S. DOT Bridge Investment Program
Benefit-Cost Analysis Tool (BIP BCA Tool v1.0.4 January 2024)”; and (4) Monetization rate for CO and
PM10 come from California Life-Cycle Benefit/Cost Analysis Model, Version 8.1. Office of Transportation
Economics, Division of Transportation Planning. March 2022, inflated to 2024 dollars using U.S DOT
inflation adjustment factors from the U.S. DOT Bridge Investment Program Benefit-Cost Analysis Tool
(BIP BCA Tool v1.0.4 January 2024).”
TRAFFIC CRASH COST SAVINGS
There are significant differences between crash rates per ton-mile between truck and
rail. Table 34 presents the crash rates for freight truck and freight rail and the
monetization rates used in this analysis to estimate the safety benefits to be generated
by the build-out transload facility.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 34 Freight Crash Rates and Reductions Due to Transloading
Crash Rate
Safety Freight Truck Crash Freight Rail Crash Monetization Rates
Reduction Rail
Measure Rates Rates (2024$)
Versus Truck
Fatality Rate 2.2212 fatalities per 0.4793 fatalities per 1.7419 fatalities per $13,020,800 per
billion ton-miles billion ton-miles billion ton-miles fatality
Injury Rate 55.1714 injuries per 4.6207 injuries per 50.5507 injuries per $222,700 per
billion ton-miles billion ton-miles billion ton-miles injured person
(severity unknown)
Sources: (1) Crash rates come from A Modal Comparison of Domestic Freight Transportation Effects on the
General Public: 2001–2019, January 2022, Prepared for the U.S. National Waterways Foundation.
Prepared by the Texas Transportation Institute’s Center for Port and Waterways at Texas A&M
University; and (2) Monetization rates in 2022$ come from the “U.S. DOT, Benefit-Cost Analysis
Guidance for Discretionary Grant Programs, December 2023” inflated to 2024 dollars using U.S DOT
inflation adjustment factors from the U.S. DOT Bridge Investment Program Benefit-Cost Analysis Tool
(BIP BCA Tool v1.0.4 January 2024).
The estimated annual reductions in fatalities and injuries associated with the build-out
transload facility are:
0.5 fewer fatalities per year valued at $6.2 million (in 2024$).
14 fewer persons injured per year valued at $3.1 million (in 2024$).
The avoided fatalities and persons injured resulting from the operation of the build-out
transload facility is estimated to amount to $9.3 million annually (in 2024$).
Rail-Served Site Concept
This section presents the factors driving the economic impacts of the rail-served site
concept, the rail-served site build-out capacity, the estimated facility capital and O&M
costs, the staffing requirements, and the direct and total (combined direct, indirect, and
induced) economic impacts to be generated by this facility.
Concept Definition
Developing rail-served industrial sites preserves prime locations that are uniquely suited
for industrial development because of their existing direct connection to rail
infrastructure. These sites can be designed to facilitate the loading and unloading of
goods onto trains, promoting efficient transportation via the existing rail network with
minimal investment.
Factors that Drive Economic Impacts
Implementation and operation of this facility will generate:
Short-term economic impacts generated by facility construction expenditures
($1.5 million, in 2024$) in the study area and spillover impacts statewide.
Long-term economic impacts generated by freight transportation cost savings on
industries in the study area and spillover impacts in the rest of Virginia.
Long-term economic impacts generated by ongoing facility maintenance
expenditures in the study area and spillover impacts in the rest of Virginia.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Build Out Facility Capacity
The rail-served site is estimated to handle 55,000 tons per year in freight. The Study
estimates the tonnage moved using data from the DRPT Open Data Portal, which
shows that companies that ship by rail in the study area shipped an average of 12,000
tons through the study area in 2017.39 The Study escalates this tonnage by 2 percent
annually in accordance with the projected growth outlined in the 2022 Virginia Statewide
Rail Plan, amounting to 13,750 tons moved per business in 2024. The Study estimates
the rail-served site will serve four businesses based on an assessment of aerial imagery
of potential rail-served sites, amounting to 55,000 tons annually.
Facility Capital and Operating & Maintenance Costs
FACILITY CAPITAL COSTS
The capital cost of the rail-served site is estimated using the data obtained through the
stakeholder interviews.40 As shown in Table 35, total construction cost of the rail-served
site is estimated at $1.5 million (2024$).
39 Service: Tonnage by Commodity: Lynchburg, Virginia Department of Rail and Public
Transportation Open Data Portal, 2022.
40 Stakeholder interviews. NS Interview.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Table 35 Rail-served Site Capital Costs (2024$)
Estimated Cost
Expense Type Detailed Computation or Assumption
(2024$)
Railway Improvements $300 per linear foot of track multiplied by 1,400 ft of $400,000
branch length
Switch Average of lower cost of switch track ($300,000) and $800,000
upper cost of switch track ($1,200,000)
Sitework $100,000
Planning/Design 8 percent of the combined cost of railway $100,000
improvements, switch and sitework cost
Contingency 8 percent of the combined cost of railway $100,000
improvements, switch and sitework cost
Total $1,500,000
Source: Computations and estimates are based on the data collected during the stakeholder interviews
conducted as part of this study.
The annual maintenance costs for the rail-served site are estimated at $20,000 per year
(2024$) for the 0.26-mile rail spur and includes track and property maintenance
activities.41
Expected Freight to be Handled by the Facility
The Study is agnostic as to the type of freight handled by the site, but given market
conditions in the region, it is likely that it could include metal products and food-related
products.
Estimated Direct Impacts
Direct impacts include the reduction in total shipping costs to businesses in the Study
area and the rest of Virginia to determine the shipping cost savings associated with the
55,000 annual tons envisaged to move though the rail-served site. The analysis
assumes that the rail-served site would reduce truck transport to alternative locations by
46 miles. This equates to approximately 2.5 million ton-miles per year. The ton-miles
are multiplied by the truck shipping cost per ton-mile to determine the shipping cost
41 The Study applied a maintenance cost per mile of $73,800 per mile using estimates from the FRA’s
2004 Technical Monograph: Estimating Maintenance Costs for Mixed High-Speed Passenger and Freight
Rail Corridors report (adjusting to 2024$). Retrieved
https://railroads.dot.gov/sites/fra.dot.gov/files/fra_net/15003/Technical%20Monograph%20-
%20Estimating%20Maintenance%20Costs%20for%20Mixed%20High-
Speed%20Passenger%20and%20Freight%20Rail%20Corridors%20%28UNPUBLISHED%29.pdf
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
savings to businesses using the rail-served site. The truck shipping cost used is 10.6
cents per ton-mile42 (calculated as $2.44 per mile / 23 tons freight load = 10.6 cents per
ton-mile).
The annual shipping cost savings to businesses is estimated at $268,200 per year. The
analysis distributes these cost savings among the industries anticipated to use or
produce the commodities by applying the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Transportation Satellite Accounts (TSAs), which details the direct requirements of
transportation services per dollar of industry output.43 The TSAs are used to allocate the
transportation cost savings among the industries in the region and determine the direct
impacts on each industry’s output. These changes in industry output are used as inputs
to the IMPLAN model to determine the total (combined direct, indirect, and induced)
economic impacts.
Estimated Total Economic Impacts
The direct impacts run through IMPLAN to calculate the total economic impacts of the
rail-served site, the rest of Virginia, and the entire Commonwealth of Virginia.
Table 36 shows the total short-term economic impacts of construction expenditures
during the one-year of construction. In summary, the construction of the rail-served site
will generate 12 jobs worth $600,000 and increase GSP by $1.2 million for the
Commonwealth (all in 2024$). Of these impacts, 95 percent of the jobs, 92 percent of
wages, and 89 percent of GSP increases occur within the study area.
Table 36 Rail-Served Site - Total Short-Term Economic Impacts of Construction Expenditures
over the One-Year Construction Period
Geographic Employment Labor Income Output
GSP (2024$) Taxes (2024$)
Area (Jobs) (2024$) (2024$)
Study Area* 11 $500,000 $1,000,000 $2,400,000 $200,000
Rest of Virginia 1 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $100,000
Commonwealth 12 $600,000 $1,200,000 $2,700,000 $300,000
of Virginia
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
Notes: *The study area comprises four counties (Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, and Campbell) and the City of
Lynchburg. Total economic impact includes direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
Given the small magnitude of business savings in shipping costs and the low amount of
maintenance the rail-served site requires, nearly all regional economic impacts are
expected to come from site development and construction.
42 UBER Freight: A guide to freight trucking rates in 2024. Retrieved
https://www.uberfreight.com/blog/freight-trucking-rates-guide/.
43 U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics: Transportation Satellite Accounts. Retrieved
https://www.bts.gov/satellite-accounts.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Return on Investment
Notwithstanding the low ongoing impacts on a regional level, the shipping cost savings
relative to the investment required for the rail-served site shows a positive return on
investment (albeit minimal) as shown in Table 37. Each dollar invested in the rail-served
site would return $1.40 in benefits.
Table 37 Rail-served Site – Benefit-Cost Ratio and Return on Investment
Item Value
Rail-served Site Construction Costs, 2025 = C $1.5million (2024$, discounted to
2022)
Rail-served Site Benefits, 2026-2045 = B $3.6 million (2024$, discounted to
2022)
Net Present Value (NPV) = B-C $2.1 million (2024$, discounted to
2022)
Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) = B / C 1.40
Return on Investment (ROI) = [ (B – C) / C ] x 100% 140%
Note: Benefits limited to freight cost savings to Virginia businesses. The analysis covers 20 years of benefits
and assumes no ramp up to full capacity.
Concluding Remarks
This economic analysis applies a data-driven, transparent process to demonstrate the
direct and total economic impacts of investing in the most viable opportunity concepts.
The analysis provides compelling and defensible measures to communicate the multiple
ways the most viable opportunity concepts generate economic value to the
Commonwealth of Virginia. The high-level estimates measured in this analysis can be
used to:
Support the need to fund the most viable opportunity concepts.
Communicate the broader role of passenger rail and freight rail improvements in
Virginia.
Provide guidelines for future strategic planning. The Study outcomes will enable
public and private entities involved in economic development for the Central
Virginia region to communicate the expected benefits that could result from
investment to improve and expand passenger and freight rail to elected officials
and key stakeholders.
Each dollar invested in the Bedford passenger rail stop is expected to return
$1.95 in benefits to the study area. The rail stop will generate economic value to the
Commonwealth of Virginia in the short and long term as follows:
In the short term, the rail stop is expected to support 210 additional jobs in the
Commonwealth over the 2026-2029 construction period. These jobs would add
$11.6 million in labor income, $16.2 million in GSP, $33.3 million in economic
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
output, and $4.0 million in tax revenue to the Commonwealth over the
construction period (all in 2024$).
In the long term, the rail stop is expected to support 130 additional jobs in the
Commonwealth over the 2030-2049 period. These jobs would add $5.6 million in
labor income, $11.1 million in GSP, $21.4 million in economic output, and $2.6
million in tax revenue to the Commonwealth over the 20-year operating period.
(all in 2024$)
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
Each dollar invested in a transload facility in the study area would return $1.47 in
benefits to the study area. The transload facility will generate economic value to the
Commonwealth of Virginia in the short and long term as follows:
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
In the short term, a transload facility is expected to support 220 additional jobs in
the Commonwealth over the one-year construction period. These jobs would add
$9.6 million in labor income, $13.3 million in GSP, $27.9 million in economic
output, and $3.5 million in tax revenue to the Commonwealth over the
construction period (all in 2024$).
In the long term, a transload facility is expected to support 275 additional jobs in
the Commonwealth annually. These jobs would add $13.5 million in labor
income, generate $21.2 million in GSP, lead to $48.9 million in economic output,
and yield $5.4 million in tax revenue in the Commonwealth annually over a 20-
year period (all in 2024$).
Source: Outputs from the IMPLAN model for Virginia.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Each dollar invested in a rail-served site in the study area would return $1.43 in
benefits to the study area. A rail-served site is also expected to generate economic
value to the Commonwealth of Virginia over the one-year construction period. In the
short term, the site is anticipated to support 12 additional jobs in the Commonwealth
over the construction period. These jobs would add $600,000 in labor income, $1.2
million in GSP, $2.7 million in economic output, and $300,000 in tax revenue to the
Commonwealth over the one-year construction period (all in 2024$). The long-term
economic impacts from freight transportation cost savings and site annual O&M
expenditures are minimal.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Chapter 5: Summary of Findings
The Study evaluates and prioritizes freight and passenger rail-centric opportunity
concepts that may yield long-term regional economic growth in Central Virginia, which
includes the City of Lynchburg and Bedford, Campbell, Amherst, and Appomattox
Counties. The intent of these opportunity concepts is to capitalize on the study area’s
existing infrastructure assets as well as the economic and demographic landscape of
the region.
The study area connects to the rest of the Commonwealth by the four-lane limited
access highways that support the uninterrupted flow of freight (U.S. 460, U.S. 29, and
U.S. 501) and other key arterials. Two Class I railroads, CSX, and NS, pass through the
study area. Central Virginia’s has robust rail infrastructure to pursue targeted strategies
to secure companies that require rail service.
Regarding passenger rail, the City of Lynchburg is more reliant on highway
infrastructure and private automobile use for passenger movements than is the
Commonwealth of Virginia as a whole. Expanding passenger rail service to Central
Virginia can enhance the region’s capacity for business attraction and economic growth.
The background research and outreach activities form the basis of the MCA, which
screens the four opportunity concepts aimed at facilitating rail-centric economic growth;
the MCA selects the following opportunity passenger and freight rail concepts to move
forward in the EIA:
Bedford passenger rail stop
Transload facility
Rail-served site
Economic Analysis
The Study concludes that adding a passenger Rail stop to the Lynchburg region at
Bedford is expected to support 210 additional jobs in Virginia over the 2026-2029
construction period, contributing $11.6 million in labor income, $16.2 million in GSP,
$33.3 million in economic output, and $4.0 million in tax revenue to Virginia in that
period (all in 2024$). The Bedford passenger rail stop is expected to support 130
additional jobs over a 2030-2049 operations period, contributing $5.6 million in labor
income, $11.1 million in GSP, $21.4 million in economic output, and $2.6 million in tax
revenue in that period (all in 2024$). Each dollar invested in the Bedford passenger rail
stop is expected to return $1.95 in benefits.
A transload facility in the study area is expected to support 220 additional jobs in
Virginia over a one-year construction period, contributing $9.6 million in labor income,
$13.3 million in GSP, $27.9 million in economic output, and $3.5 million in tax revenue
in that period (all in 2024$). A transload facility is expected to support 275 additional
jobs in Virginia over a 20-year operating period, contributing 13.5 million in labor
income, generate $21.2 million in GSP, lead to $48.9 million in economic output, and
yield $5.4 million in tax revenue in that period (all in 2024$). Each dollar invested in a
transload facility is expected to return $1.47 in benefits.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
A rail-served site is expected to support 12 additional jobs in Virginia over a one-year
construction period, contributing $600,000 in labor income, $1.2 million in GSP, $2.7
million in economic output, and $300,000 in tax revenue in that period (all in 2024). The
long-term economic impacts from freight transportation cost savings and site annual
O&M expenditures are minimal. Each dollar invested in a rail-served site is expected to
return $1.43 in benefits.
The benefits of developing rail-served sites and transloads is twofold and goes beyond
what is captured in the EIA. Rezoning a site and making it industry-ready can keep
incompatible uses such as housing or retail from sprouting up along railroads and
causing conflicts for communities in the future. Communities can channel heavy
industrial development to places that are uniquely positioned to handle the
transportation and utility needs of these industries. Ultimately this makes a region more
livable and minimizes the downsides of industrial development, such as roadway
congestion and incompatible land uses.
Appendix D presents the findings of the economic analyses for each opportunity
concept evaluated.
Potential Funding Opportunities
The Commonwealth offers funding programs that could support the development of the
selected three opportunity concepts.
DRPT’s FREIGHT Program is designed to support rail infrastructure investments
to expand the Virginia freight rail network. Funding requires a 30 percent local
match by the applicant. Eligible applicants include freight rail operators, the
Virginia Port Authority, local governments, non-profit organizations, and private
companies. Applicants may use funding to support environmental review,
engineering, and design (a minimum 30 percent design must be complete prior to
award), right-of-way acquisition, signal improvements, construction of railways
and rail facilities, as well as procurement of railroad equipment and rolling
stock.44
DRPT’s Rail Industrial Access (RIA) Program promotes truck diversion to rail
by providing grant assistance to connect new or expanding businesses to the
freight railroad network. Funding requires a 30 percent local match by the
applicant. Eligible applicants include private businesses or commercial entities,
local governments, local departments of economic development, and railroads.
Applicants may use funding to support the engineering, sitework, or construction
of track to new commercial or industrial facilities as well as improvements to
substantially expanding existing commercial or industrial facilities.45
VEDP’s Business Ready Sites Program (VBRSP) is a discretionary program to
44 More information on eligibility can be found in the DRPT Freight Rail Grant Funding & Procedures
documentation. Retrieved https://drpt.virginia.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/drpt-freight-rail-grant-funding-and-
procedures.pdf
45 More information can be found in the Rail Industrial Access Application Guidance & Procedures
documentation. Retrieved https://drpt.virginia.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/RIA-Application-Guidance-and-
Procedures-April-2024-UPDATE.pdf
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
promote development and characterization of sites to enhance the
Commonwealth’s infrastructure and promote its competitive business
environment. The program’s goal is to identify and assess the readiness of
potential industrial sites in alignment with the goals outlined in the Governor's
economic development plan. VBRSP grants are available to assist with the costs
associated with the initial assessment and the development required to increase
a site’s suitability for industry as defined by the Commonwealth’s Site
Development Program Guidelines. Grants are considered on a competitive basis
and made at the discretion of the VBRSP Project Review Committee and the
Funding Approval Committee.
SMART SCALE is a process that helps Virginia meet its most critical
transportation needs using limited tax dollars. It evaluates potential transportation
projects based on key factors like how they improve safety, reduce congestion,
increase accessibility, contribute to economic development, promote efficient
land use, and affect the environment. The anticipated benefits of a project are
calculated and the projects are scored and ranked. This information is used by
the Commonwealth Transportation Board to help guide and inform their project
selection decisions. While railroad operators are not eligible to submit projects for
SMART SCALE, Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) and Planning
District Commissions (PDCs) are eligible to submit projects, along with counties,
cities, and those towns that maintain their own infrastructure.
Next Steps
The EIA of the selected opportunity concepts suggests the Bedford passenger rail stop,
a transload facility, and a rail-served site have the potential to drive long-term regional
economic growth in Central Virginia. The Study uses planning level estimates to
conduct the EIA of the freight rail opportunity concepts; the findings are sensitive to the
capital and operations and maintenance cost estimates. The Study recommends
detailed site evaluation and a market analysis to further assess the infrastructure needs,
economic viability, and cost estimates of the opportunity concepts. For freight concepts
this will require close coordination with the host railroad to understand market potential
and the needs of rail customers. Passenger projects also require close coordination with
the railroads, along with Amtrak, the passenger service provider.
There is momentum behind each of these concepts that can drive next steps.
In October 2024 the Town of Bedford announced it was awarded a $1,481,000
grant through FRA’s Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety Improvements
(CRISI) program to complete National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)
compliance and preliminary engineering for a new Bedford passenger rail stop.
Amherst County reported that it has had recent industry interest in the Dillard
site, which topped this study’s list of suitable rail-served sites in the Lynchburg
region. The interested companies were planning expansions that ranged in
estimated capital investment between $300 million and over $1 billion, and
between 150 and 600 jobs. This level of investment and job creation at a rail-
served site in the Lynchburg area could substantially boost the public benefit of
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
site enhancements to attract industry.
Given that NS is the dominant railroad in the region with major north-south and
east-west district lines that meet in Lynchburg, the community could plan to
coordinate with NS to explore potential opportunities for transload access. This
could start by identifying companies that may not be shipping by rail today but
are engaged in business sectors that are well-suited for rail. Localities could help
by identifying candidate locations that fit the profile identified in Chapter 4.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Acronyms
Abbreviation Definition
AAGR average annual growth rate
BBR Buckingham Branch Railroad
BCA benefit-cost analysis
BCR benefit-cost ratio
BCR Bay Coast Railroad
BIP Bridge Investment Program
BRE business retention and expansion
CA Chesapeake and Albemarle Railroad
CHW Chesapeake Western Railway
CO carbon monoxide
CO2 carbon dioxide
CRISI Consolidated Rail Infrastructure and Safety Improvements
CSX CSX Transportation
CVCC Central Virginia Community College
CVTPO Central Virginia Transportation Planning Organization
CWRY Commonwealth Railway
Virginia Department of Housing and Community
DHCD
Development
DRPT Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation
EIA economic impact analysis
FRA Federal Railroad Administration
Freight Rail Enhancements to Increase Goods and
FREIGHT
Highway Throughput
FTA Federal Transit Administration
FY fiscal year
GLTC Greater Lynchburg Transit Company
GOVA Virginia Growth and Opportunity
GSP gross state product
HC hydrocarbons
IMPLAN impact analysis for planning
LRBA Lynchburg Regional Business Alliance
MCA multi-criteria analysis
NCVA North Carolina and Virginia Railroad
NEPA National Environmental Policy Act
NOx nitrogen oxides
NPB Norfolk and Portsmouth Belt Line Railroad
NPV net present value
NS Norfolk Southern Railway Company
OIPI Virginia Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment
O&M operating and maintenance
PDO property damage only
DRPT Connects I
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Abbreviation Definition
particulate matter that are 10 micrometers or less in
PM10
diameter
RIA Program Rail Industrial Access Program
ROI return on investment
RPF Program Rail Preservation Fund
RTC rail traffic controller
SAM social accounting matrices
SV Shenandoah Valley Railroad
TOD transit-oriented development
U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics Transportation
TSA
Satellite Accounts
USDOT U.S. Department of Transportation
VEDP Virginia Economic Development Partnership
VMT vehicle miles traveled
VPRA Virginia Passenger Rail Authority
WW Winchester and Western Railroad
DRPT Connects II
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Appendix
DRPT Connects III
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Appendix A – List of Interviews
Organization Date Representative(s)
Lynchburg February 16, 2024 Megan Lucas - CEO & Chief Economic
Regional Development
Business Barry Butler - Director of Government Relations
Alliance
Buckingham February 29, 2024 Brian Freeman - Manager of Sales and
Branch Marketing
Railroad Jim VanDerzee – Manager of Industrial
Development
City of February 29, 2024 Marjette Upshur – Director of Economic
Lynchburg Development
Moffatt & February 23, 2024 Pierce Homer
Nichol
Town of February 23, 2024 Mary Zirkle – Director of Planning and
Bedford Community Lead
CSX February 23, 2024 Lassiter - Manager, Industrial Development,
KY-MD-VA-WV-DC
Amtrak March 4, 2024 Jeff Gerlach – Senior Planning Director
Adam Krom – Director Planning – National
Network
Joseph Barr - Director of Network
Development-East at Amtrak
Anna Lynn Smith - Vice President, Strategy
and Planning
Houff March 5, 2024 Neil Houff - President
Corporation
Port of March 1, 2024 Chris Gullickson - Director, Development and
Virginia Transportation Policy
Norfolk March 19, 2024 Scott Plum - Strategic Plan Manager
Southern
Central VA April 30, 2024 Mariel Fowler – Senior Planner
Planning Kelly Hitchcock – Planning and Development
District Director
Commission
Alec Brebner
Virginia June 19, 2024 Michael Dreiling, Vice President of Real Estate
Economic Solutions
John Loftus, Director, Sites and Buildings
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Organization Date Representative(s)
Development Eric Jehu, Vice President
Partnership Transportation and Logistics
Campbell September 5, 2024 Nina Rezai, Economic Development Manager
County
Economic
Development
Economic September 9, 2024 Victoria Hanson, Executive Director
Development
Authority of
Amherst
County
DRPT Connects V
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Appendix B – Local Business Questionnaire
Business Information: Please provide some basic information about your business.
Industry Sector (select all that apply):
i. Agriculture
ii. Construction
iii. Energy
iv. Manufacturing
v. Mining/Quarrying
vi. Retail
vii. Technology
viii. Transportation Provider
ix. Warehousing/Storage
x. Wholesale
xi. Other
Number of Employees
Annual Revenue (in thousands)
Cargo Transported: Please specify the types of cargo your business transported in the
year 2023. Check all that apply.
Raw materials
Finished goods
Perishable goods
Chemicals/hazardous materials
Machinery/equipment
Consumer goods
Other
Means of Transportation: Indicate the primary means of transportation used for
transporting your cargo in 2023. Check all that apply.
Trucks
Rail
Ocean freight
Air freight
Other
Rail Served Sites: Would your business consider utilizing a rail-served site for
transporting your commodities? Please select one of the following options:
Yes, our business would benefit from utilizing a rail-served site for transporting
our commodities.
Maybe, it would depend on factors such as current infrastructure, business
demand, and potential economic benefits.
No, I don’t believe our business would utilize a rail-served site for transporting
DRPT Connects VI
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
our commodities.
Unsure/not applicable.
Transload Facility: Would your business benefit from access to a transload facility in
Central Virginia for transferring cargo between different modes of transportation (e.g.,
truck to rail, rail to ocean freight, etc.)? Please select one of the following options:
Yes, our business would greatly benefit from a transload facility.
Maybe, it would depend on features such as location, cost, and available
services.
No, a transloading facility is not necessary for our business operations.
Unsure/not applicable.
Potential Future Rail Service Availability: What percentage of your truck shipments
would you be open to transferring to rail if rail access was an option?
Origin-Destination Cargo in 2023: Enter the name and indicate the origin and
destinations of each of the top 3 commodities transported by your business in 2023.
Then, select the modes transported.
Commodity 1 Name:
Commodity 1 Origin (city, state):
Commodity 1 Destination 1 (city, state):
Commodity 1 Destination 2 (city, state):
Commodity 1 Modes Transported (check all that apply):
o Rail
o Truck
Commodity 2 Name:
Commodity 2 Origin (city, state):
Commodity 2 Destination 2 (city, state):
Commodity 2 Modes of Transportation (check all that apply):
o Rail
o Truck
Commodity 3 Name:
Commodity 3 Origin (city, state):
Commodity 3 Destination 1 (city, state):
Commodity 3 Destination 2 (city, state):
Commodity 3 Modes of Transportation (check all that apply):
o Rail
o Truck
Cargo Volume in 2023: Please cross-reference the commodity numbers with those in
question 7 and indicate the corresponding annual volume range. It’s mandatory to
respond to Commodity 1, while Commodities 2 and 3 are optional.
DRPT Connects VII
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Commodity 1
o 100 tons or less
o 101-500 tons
o 501-1,000 tons
o 1,001-2,500 tons
o 2,501 tons-5,000 tons
o 5,001 tons or more
Commodity 2
o 100 tons or less
o 101-500 tons
o 501-1,000 tons
o 1,001-2,500 tons
o 2,501 tons-5,000 tons
o 5,001 tons or more
Commodity 3
o 100 tons or less
o 101-500 tons
o 501-1,000 tons
o 1,001-2,500 tons
o 2,501 tons-5,000 tons
o 5,001 tons or more
Contact Information (Optional): If you would like to be contacted for further discussions
or to receive a summary of the survey results, please provide your contact information
below. Otherwise, you can leave this section blank.
DRPT Connects VIII
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Appendix C – Multicriteria Analysis Technical Approach
Bedford Passenger Rail Stop
PRIMARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Does this align with regional strategies and policies?
Yes. The concept aligns with Bedford County regional strategies and policies found in
Bedford County’s Comprehensive Plan for 2030 (2015), identified in the Goals,
Objectives, and Strategies Consolidated found on page 159.
Are there existing studies with a preliminary feasibility plan?
Yes. The Bedford passenger rail stop concept has completed various feasibility studies,
a rail traffic controller (RTC) freight capacity assessment, and multiple ridership
assessments. Notable studies include:
Bedford Intercity Passenger Rail Service Study, November 2016 (DRPT)
Bedford/ Franklin County Regional Passenger Rail Stop Study, October 2021
(DRPT)
Bedford Station RTC Analysis, 2022 (DRPT/NS)
Is there availability for integration with other infrastructure?
Yes. The rail stop will connect with Virginia-sponsored Amtrak Northeast Regional
Route 46 to Roanoke. The rail stop will also be designed to connect with other modes of
transportation, including active transportation.
Has the concept been developed and advanced?
Yes. The opportunity concept is well studied, through the following publications:
Bedford Intercity Passenger Rail Service Study, November 2016 (DRPT)
Bedford Regional Rail Stop Study, August 2020 (DRPT)
Amtrak Northeast Regional Proposed Bedford VA Station, September 2021
(Amtrak)
Bedford Regional Passenger Rail Stop Study, October 2021 (DRPT)
Bedford/Franklin County Regional Passenger Rail Stop Study, October 2021
(DRPT)
The Town of Bedford requested $1,481,000 in FY 2023-2024 Consolidated Rail
Infrastructure and Safety Improvements (CRISI) Track 2 funding to advance this
concept through the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) evaluation and
preliminary engineering, supported with a local match of $375,000. If awarded, the
project will proceed with Final Design and Construction for service implementation in
2030.
Is there existing (multimodal, intermodal) connectivity?
No. There is no existing intermodal or multimodal connectivity.
DRPT Connects IX
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
SECONDARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Market Growth
The population of Bedford County grew by 31 percent between 2000 and 2022,
compared to 21 percent for Virginia as a whole. Employment during this period also
grew by 32 percent, compared to 22 percent for Virginia.
The Bedford passenger rail stop receives a high (3) rating for this secondary screening
criterion.
Timeline
The concept's complete timeline includes project development activities, such as
planning, engineering, and construction. This concept has undergone extensive
planning, and while a timeline has not been developed for the concept, the passenger
rail stop is relatively small and has begun the planning stage.
The Bedford passenger rail stop concept receives a short / most favorable (3) rating for
this secondary screening criterion.
Walkability
Bedford has a Walk Score of 71 (very walkable) and a Bike Score of 37 (somewhat
bikeable). A Transit Score for Bedford is not currently available. While Bedford is very
walkable, the Bike Score classification as somewhat bikeable and lack of a Transit
Score brings down its overall rating for walkability.
The Bedford passenger rail stop concept receives a moderate (2) rating for this
secondary screening criterion.
Ridership
Ridership numbers in the Lynchburg, Bedford, and Roanoke stations in Central Virginia
are displayed through the following two tables. Table 38 is a baseline forecast of
passenger on and off forecasts along Amtrak’s Northeast Regional Route 46, which
does not currently include a passenger stop at Bedford station (indicated by zeros in the
table).
Table 39 displays passenger projections with passenger service to the Bedford station.
Boardings and alightings are a representation of station-level activity and are equal to
double the number of annual trips, as each trip has both a boarding and alighting
location.
The forecast shows that Bedford Station ons/offs are projected to be 25,400 (12,700
riders), but some of those counted are existing riders to the route who would divert to a
Bedford station for convenience.
Summing projected activity at the stations in the region along the route (Lynchburg,
Bedford, Roanoke, as displayed in Table 39) and subtracting the base ons/offs (no
Bedford station, as displayed in Table 38) yields the incremental route ons/offs, which
amount to 20,100. Table 39 divides the incremental route ons/offs by 2 to show the
annual net new riders to the system: 10,050, which is approximately 28 new riders per
day (Amtrak’s methodology for per day calculations assume a 350-day year).
DRPT Connects X
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
The net new ridership that could be generated from a Bedford rail stop represents about
6 percent of the current ridership on Amtrak's Northeast Regional Route 46 train
between Alexandria and Roanoke.
Table 38 Baseline Forecast – Annual Boarding and Alighting (2018)
South of Washington
Through Washington,
Station (including to/from Total
DC)
Washington, DC)
Lynchburg 35,800 8,700 44,500
Bedford 0 0 0
Roanoke 33,500 24,800 58,300
Total 69,300 33,500 102,800
Table 39 Build Forecast – Annual Boarding and Alighting (2018)
South of Washington
Through Washington,
Station (including to/from Total
DC)
Washington, DC))
Lynchburg 40,600 8,700 49,300
Bedford 19,800 5,600 25,400
Roanoke 30,300 17,900 48,200
Total 90,700 32,200 122,900
Incremental Route Ridership = (build-base)/2 10,050
Due to its relatively low ridership potential, the Bedford passenger rail stop concept
receives a low (1) rating for this secondary screening criterion.
Stakeholder Interests
Stakeholder interest in a new Bedford passenger rail stop is high. According to the
Bedford Regional Passenger Rail Stop Study (2021), the Town of Bedford, Bedford
County, and Franklin County formed the Bedford/Franklin Regional Rail Initiative in
2014 to support the rail stop.
Due to the extensive public support for the rail stop, this concept receives a high (3)
rating for this secondary screening criterion.
Scale of Investment
The investment includes total costs necessary to advance the concept from conceptual
design through operation. Costs include project development activities such as design,
engineering, and environmental review, as well as construction, operations, and
maintenance costs. Total capital costs over the 2026-2029 construction period amount
to $17.8 million in 2024 dollars, discounted to 2022 at 3.1 percent.
DRPT Connects XI
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
The Bedford passenger rail stop concept receives a moderate (2) rating for this
secondary screening criterion.
POTENTIAL BENEFITS
In the context of transportation investments, economic benefits are often derived from
projects that result in a reduction in vehicle hours traveled (VHT) or vehicle miles
traveled (VMT). While the addition of an infill station at Bedford implies additional travel
time for passengers traveling to and from Roanoke, resulting in a disbenefit for existing
passengers, the Bedford passenger rail stop is expected to result in a reduction in VMT.
The Bedford passenger rail stop is expected to deliver the following benefits:
Safety: rail is a safer mode of travel than private automobile, and as such, the
project will deliver benefits resulting from the reduction in VMT.
Vehicle operating costs: passengers diverted from private automobiles will
realize operating costs avoided from the reduction in VMT.
Emissions avoided: rail emits fewer emissions per passenger mile than private
automobile and as such, the project will result in emissions reductions associated
with the reduction in VMT.
Marginal social costs: private automobile use has a higher marginal social cost
associated with noise pollution, pavement wear, and congestion compared to
passenger rail. The project will result in reductions in the marginal social costs of
noise pollution, pavement wear, and congestion associated with the reduction in
VMT.
Improved connectivity: passenger rail access brings opportunities to individuals
wanting to travel locally or across the country. The project will provide travelers
with improved connections between Roanoke, Virginia and Washington, DC
Enhanced transportation options: the project provides travelers an alternate
mode of transportation, supporting flexibility in travel arrangements.
Economic development and tourism: intercity passenger rail stations boost
economic development in surrounding areas. They can also induce visitor
volumes, which lead to increased tourism revenue for hospitality-related
businesses.
Real estate development: the presence of a passenger rail stop stimulates real
estate development as well as property investment in the vicinity.
Community revitalization: the presence of passenger rail stops can be a catalyst
for revitalization efforts to improve the quality of life of residents.
Improved access: the addition of a passenger rail stop provides easier access to
transportation for residents, especially those with limited mobility or disabilities.
DRPT Connects XII
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Transit-Oriented Development at Lynchburg Kemper Street Station
PRIMARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Does this align with regional strategies and policies?
Yes. This concept aligns with the regional strategies and policies outlined in:
Downtown Lynchburg 2040: in 2040, downtown Lynchburg aims to be “a bustling
and thriving urban core,” serving both tourists and locals – a goal of a TOD in
Lynchburg.
Lynchburg Comp Plan: Kemper Street is zoned as a Community Business
District (B-3), suitable for TOD.
Are there existing studies with a preliminary feasibility plan?
No. There is no existing feasibility study to support a TOD in Lynchburg.
Is there availability for integration with other infrastructure?
Yes, although it depends on the location TOD is being constructed. TODs typically have
strong integration with existing infrastructure. In this instance, a TOD in Lynchburg
would link with other public transportation systems.
Has the concept been developed and advanced?
No. This concept has been minimally developed and advanced. The concept of a TOD
requires extensive planning through multiple stages of development.
The USDOT awarded the Central Virginia Planning District Commission (CVPDC) a
Thriving Communities Grant under the Complete Neighborhood Community of Practice,
which will provide the CVPDC with technical assistance to transform the 12 th Street
Corridor. The 12th Street Corridor includes 12th Street from Fort Avenue to Church
Street and Kemper Street, from 12th Street to Park Avenue.
The Lynchburg Comprehensive Plan identifies the zoning regulations in each
neighborhood of Downtown Lynchburg. Kemper Street is currently zoned as Community
Business District (B-3), which allows for shopping centers, restaurants, supermarkets,
and mixed-use development. While a B-3 classification is amenable for mixed use, re-
zoning to an Urban Commercial (B-4), which does not have parking requirements, may
be favorable to support advancement of the concept.
Is there existing (multimodal, intermodal) connectivity?
Yes. There is existing multimodal connectivity at the Lynchburg station. This
connectivity includes access to the Kemper Street Station, the Kemper Street Transfer
Station, providing local bus service, and the Blackwater Creek Trail.
SECONDARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Market Growth
Due to the same rate of population and employment growth between Lynchburg and the
Commonwealth of Virginia (within 1 percent) between 2000 and 2022, the TOD at
DRPT Connects XIII
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Lynchburg Kemper Street Station receives a moderate growth (2) rating for this
secondary screening criterion.
Timeline
Although there is no fixed timeline to complete a TOD, TODs are considered long-term
investments that require multiple stages of development, including planning and
community engagement, real estate development, potential rezoning, and infrastructure
development.
Due to the multiple stages necessary to realize a TOD, the concept of a TOD at
Lynchburg Kemper Street Station receives a long / least favorable (1) rating for this
secondary screening criterion.
Walkability
Downtown Lynchburg has a Walk Score of 85 (very walkable), a Bike Score of 61
(bikeable), and a Transit Score of 28 (some transit). Due to its high Walk Score and
satisfactory Bike Score, TOD at Lynchburg Kemper Street Station receives a high (3)
rating for this secondary screening criterion.
Ridership
It is estimated that ridership can increase up to 55 percent when there is a TOD placed
in an area due to the increased amount of both tourists and residents being encouraged
to use public transportation.46
TOD encourages residents to drive 20-40 percent less than they used to and use transit
4-10 times more than those in areas that do not have TOD.47
Table 40 includes ridership numbers for Kemper Street Station between FY 2005 and
2023, with forecasted ridership numbers for FY 2024 to 2026.
Table 40 Historic Data – Ridership Values
Ridership
Fiscal Year
Kemper Street Station
2010 58,348
2011 76,179
2012 86,498
2013 93,337
2014 86,302
2015 84,975
46Optimizing Land Use Allocation of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) to Generate Maximum
Ridership, 2020. Retrieved https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093798
47 Transit-Oriented Development, 2024. Retrieved https://www.transit.dot.gov/TOD
DRPT Connects XIV
VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Ridership
Fiscal Year
Kemper Street Station
2016 82,786
2017 82,251
2018 58,160
2019 54,632
2020 31,361
2021 28,459
2022 48,326
2023 73,424
2024 (forecast) 81,998
2025 (forecast) 83,317
2026 (forecast) 84,855
Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Amtrak Ridership, 2005-2022. Retrieved Amtrak Ridership | Bureau
of Transportation Statistics (bts.gov); Ridership projections were provided by Adam Krom on April 12,
2024.
In 2021, the Kemper Street Station accounted for a quarter of ridership on Amtrak's
Northeast Regional Route 46, dropping only slightly to 21 percent in 2022.48
Due to its high ridership volumes on the route, the TOD at Lynchburg Kemper Street
Station receives a high (3) rating for this secondary screening criteria.
Stakeholder Interests
Due to the lack of feasibility studies available, there is little information on how a TOD in
Lynchburg would benefit stakeholders. As such, the TOD at Lynchburg Kemper Street
Station concept receives a low (1) rating for this secondary screening criteria.
Scale of Investment
While a cost estimate has not been completed for the TOD at Kemper Street Station,
cost of implementing a TOD tend to be in excess of $100 million (2024$).49 These costs
include public and private expenditures. The higher costs of dense infill development
have previously been referenced as a barrier to TOD implementation.50
48 Amtrak, Amtrak FY22 Ridership, 2022. Retrieved https://media.amtrak.com/wp-
content/uploads/2022/11/FY22-Year-End-Revenue-and-Ridership.pdf
49 Senate Committee Reviews How TOD Can Be Financed and Built in America, 2024. Retrieved
https://enotrans.org/article/senate-committee-reviews-how-tod-can-be-financed-built-america/
50 Transit Cooperative Research Project, Transit-Oriented Development in the United States, 2018.
Retrieved Transit_Oriented_Development.pdf (ctaa.org)
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Due to the potential investment range, the TOD at Kemper Street Station concept
receives a high investment (1) rating for this secondary screening criteria.
POTENTIAL BENEFITS
TOD at the Kemper Street Station is expected to boost the area and surrounding
neighborhoods economically via mixed land use and increased residential and
commercial property values. TOD improves accessibility for all modes of transit,
lessening automobile dependency, which has the potential to reduce VMT. TOD at the
Kemper Street Station can deliver the following benefits:
Safety: transit is a safer mode of travel than private automobile, and as such, the
project will deliver safety benefits resulting from the reduction in VMT.
Vehicle operating costs: transit riders diverted from private automobiles will
realize operating costs avoided from the reduction in VMT.
Emissions avoided: transit emits fewer emissions per passenger mile than
private automobile and as such, the project will result in emissions reductions
associated with the reduction in VMT.
Marginal social costs: private automobile use has a higher marginal social cost
associated with noise pollution, pavement wear, and congestion compared to
passenger rail. The project will result in reductions in these categories, and an
associated reduction in VMT.
Improved connectivity: transit access brings opportunities to individuals wanting
to travel locally or across the country. The project will provide travelers with
improved connections between Roanoke, Virginia and Washington, DC
Enhanced transportation options: TOD increases access to alternate modes of
transportation, supporting flexibility in travel arrangements and through mixed-
use development. TOD has the potential to lessen travel demand for select trips.
Economic development and community revitalization: TOD enables increased
density and mixed-use development, which can be a catalyst for economic
development opportunities that attract visitors and improve the quality of life for
residents. TOD land use can also result in the recovery of underperforming land
uses. Increases in property values would deliver fiscal benefits to the City of
Lynchburg.
Improved access and social equity: TOD enhances amenities to support transit,
pedestrian, and bike travel, improving accessibility for those without access to a
personal vehicle, as well as non-motorized users of the transportation network.
TOD can decrease socioeconomic disparities by providing access to affordable
housing choices nearby.
Health benefits: TOD contributes to improved public health results by
encouraging walking and biking and reducing air pollution.
Environmental sustainability: beyond emissions reductions, TOD aids in land
conservation, natural resource production, and environmental impact mitigation
by encouraging smart growth and decreased vehicular usage.
Rail-Served Site
PRIMARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Does this align with regional strategies and policies?
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Yes. The rail-served site aligns with regional strategies and policies outlined in the
Inland Port Feasibility Study.
Are there existing studies with a preliminary feasibility plan?
No. There are no existing studies with a preliminary feasibility plan for rail-served site.
A market analysis could be conducted to better understand the market demand for, and
the magnitude of benefits associated with, a rail-served site. Identifying a potential site,
cost estimates, and freight operators and businesses that would benefit from a rail-
served site would further advance the concept.
Is there availability for integration with other infrastructure?
Yes. It is assumed the rail-served site will integrate with existing infrastructure.
Has the concept been developed and advanced?
No. The rail-served site concept has not been previously developed and advanced.
Is there existing (multimodal, intermodal) connectivity?
Yes. It is assumed that the rail-served site will facilitate connectivity to the freight
network.
SECONDARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Market Growth
The Study takes a comparative approach to evaluate market growth for the rail-served
site and transload facility concepts. Because much of freight movements in the study
area are by truck, and rail-served sites do not facilitate multimodal freight movement,
the rail-served site concept receives a moderate growth (2) rating for this secondary
screening criteria.
Timeline
The project timeline includes planning, engineering, and construction. Timelines are
scored based on total length of time until project opening, including timeline to
construction (planning duration) and duration of construction.
Timelines vary depending on the size of the project. According to the Iowa DOT, track
construction can range from 11 to 17 months.
Because the timeline to implementation is less than five years, the rail-served site
concept receives a short / most favorable (3) rating for this secondary screening
criterion.
Economic Viability, Industry Support, and Stakeholder Interests
A market study has not been conducted to assess the economic viability of a rail-served
site, so the Study takes a comparative approach between the rail-served site and
transload facility concepts to evaluate these secondary screening criteria.
The Study uses the local business surveys described in Chapter 2 as a proxy to rate the
economic viability of a rail-served site. Of the responses received, 57 percent of
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
respondents indicated they would benefit from utilizing a rail-served site, and 43 percent
of respondents indicated they might benefit from utilizing a rail-served site. No
respondents indicated they would not benefit from utilizing a rail-served site.
Comparatively, 43 percent of respondents indicated they would benefit from utilizing a
transload facility and 57 percent of respondents indicated they might benefit from
utilizing a transload facility. Similarly, no respondents indicated they would not benefit
from utilizing a transload facility.
Because a higher percentage of survey respondents indicated they would benefit from a
rail-served site compared to a transload facility, the rail-served site concept receives a
high (3) rating for these secondary screening criteria.
Scale of Investment
The cost to develop a rail-served site depends on several factors, including but not
limited to proximity to existing rail infrastructure, the grade at the site, terrain, and
number of turnouts needed. Because site-specific cost estimates have not been
developed for the rail-served site, the Study takes a comparative approach to evaluate
scale of investment for the rail-served site and new transload facility concepts.
The Study assumes a rail-served site requires less investment to develop than a
transload facility, and as such, the rail-served site concept receives a low / most
favorable (3) rating for this secondary screening criterion.
POTENTIAL BENEFITS
Rail-served sites can deliver the following benefits:
Cost efficiency: rail transport is often more cost-effective than other modes of
transportation, especially for bulk or heavy goods.
Accessibility to markets: rail connections facilitate movement of goods to and
from ports, distribution centers, and other key transportation hubs.
Reduced traffic congestion: businesses can help alleviate vehicular traffic
congestion by utilizing rail transport, particularly for freight transportation.
Environmental sustainability: rail transport emits fewer pollutants per ton-mile
compared to truck.
Reliability and predictability: rail transport is known for reliability and
predictability, with fixed schedules and dedicated routes.
Flexibility and scalability: businesses can expand, or contract operations as
needed without significant infrastructure investment because rail infrastructure
accommodates a wide range of freight volume and types.
Land use efficiency: rail-served sites are suitable for heavy industrial or
manufacturing activities because they have larger lot sizes and higher weight-
bearing capacity compared to non-rail served sites. This maximizes land use
efficiency and allows consolidation of operations into a single site, reducing the
need for multiple facilities.
Job creation and economic development: attracting businesses, generating
investment, and fostering industrial growth can all stimulate job growth and
economic development by developing rail-served sites.
Transload Facility
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
PRIMARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Does this align with regional strategies and policies?
Yes. The rail-served site aligns with regional strategies and policies, such as the VTrans
2040 Multimodal Transportation Plan, 2017.
Are there existing studies with a preliminary feasibility plan?
No. There are no existing studies with a preliminary feasibility plan for the transload
facility development.
A market analysis should be conducted to assess the viability of a transload facility.
Identifying a potential site, cost estimates, and freight operators and businesses that
would benefit from a transload facility would further advance the concept.
Is there availability for integration with other infrastructure?
Yes. It is assumed the transload facility will integrate with existing infrastructure.
Has the concept been developed and advanced?
No. The transload facility concept has not been previously developed and advanced.
Is there existing (multimodal, intermodal) connectivity?
Yes. It is assumed that the transload facility will facilitate connectivity to the freight
network.
SECONDARY SCREENING CRITERIA
Market Growth
The Study takes a comparative approach to evaluate this secondary screening criterion
for the rail-served site and new transload facility concepts. Because much of freight
movements in the study area are by truck, and transload facilities facilitate the multi-
modal movement of freight, the new transload facility concept receives a high growth (3)
rating for this secondary screening criterion.
Timeline
Typically, development of a new transload facility takes one to two years. Because the
timeline to implementation is less than five years, the rail-served site concept receives a
short / most favorable (3) rating for this secondary screening criterion.
Economic Viability, Industry Support, and Stakeholder Interests
Because a market study has not been conducted to assess the economic viability of a
rail-served site, the Study takes a comparative approach to evaluate these secondary
screening criteria.
As described under these secondary screening criteria for the rail-served site concept,
the Study uses the local business surveys described in Chapter 2 as a proxy to rate the
economic viability of a transload facility.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Because a lower percentage of survey respondents indicated they would benefit from a
transload facility compared to a rail-served site, the rail-served site concept receives a
moderate (2) rating for these secondary screening criteria.
Scale of Investment
The cost to develop a transload facility depends on several factors, including but not
limited to proximity to existing rail infrastructure, rail infrastructure investments needed,
as well as equipment needs. Because site-specific cost estimates have not been
developed for the transload facility, the Study takes a comparative approach to evaluate
this secondary screening criterion for the rail-served site and transload facility concepts.
The Study assumes a transload facility requires more investment to develop than a rail-
served site, and as such, the transload facility concept receives a moderate investment
(2) rating for this secondary screening criterion.
POTENTIAL BENEFITS
Rail-served sites can deliver the following benefits:
Highway user effects: the movement of freight by rail reduces travel time and
vehicle operating costs for those remaining on roadways.
Highway system effects: freight rail reduces long-distance truck travel creating
direct benefits to the highway system.
Environmental sustainability effects: rail is more fuel efficient than trucks,
reducing dependency on fossil fuels. Rail also emits lower emissions of air
pollutants per freight ton-mile than trucks.
Safety effects: rail fatality, injury, and property damage only (PDO) crash rates
are lower than truck fatality, injury, and property damage only crash rates.
Rail freight shipping cost effects: rail provides a lower shipping rate per ton-mile
relative to trucking, reducing freight shipping costs.
Production cost savings: rail provides access to wider markets, which adds to
economies of scale in production, distribution, and consumption.
Market size effects: rail increases modal competition and access to a larger and
more diverse base of inputs such as raw materials, parts, energy, and labor, and
broader market for diverse input.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
Appendix D – Economic Assessments
The economic assessment of each opportunity concept includes an EIA and a BCA,
which are further described in the subsequent sections.
Economic Impact Analysis
An EIA quantifies the viable opportunity concept’s direct, indirect, and induced impacts
on employment and economic activity. While it considers the positive impacts of the
investment as a stimulus to the local economy rather than a cost to the Project sponsor,
it does not consider the extent to which a positive impact in one region (or industry) may
be accompanied by offsetting losses in another region (or industry). Common metrics to
report the total economic impacts include job creation, labor income, gross state product
(GSP), economic output, and tax revenue.
This analysis utilizes the IMPLAN economic model developed by Minnesota IMPLAN
Group, Inc. This model can forecast how a change in economic activity or policy affects
a region’s economy.
The IMPLAN economic model is an economic impact assessment software system that,
when combined with background IMPLAN® Data Files, can generate local-area Social
Accounting Matrices (SAM) and SAM-based multipliers. IMPLAN expands upon the
traditional input-output models to trace the flow of money between institutions, such as
transfer payments from governments to businesses and households, and taxes paid by
households and businesses to governments in a given time period.
IMPLAN multipliers are used to analyze the changes in final demand and their ripple
effects throughout the local economy at a specific point in time. The multipliers are
coefficients that describe the response of the local economy to a change in demand or
production. IMPLAN multipliers estimate three components of total change in final
demand or production within the local economy:
Direct impacts measure changes within the affected industry (e.g., spending by
the construction industry to develop a new passenger rail station). Direct impacts
are entered through events in IMPLAN. The events describe the actual change in
production that is being modeled.
Indirect impacts capture industry-to-industry interactions in response to altered
demands of the directly impacted industry (e.g., employment with companies that
support the construction industry).
Induced impacts reflect changes in household spending as total income and
population adjust due to a direct industry impact (e.g., the wages of construction
employees lead to spending on mortgage, groceries, and entertainment).
IMPLAN can be used to assess the economic impact of investment in a particular
industry (e.g., building a new transload facility in Central Virginia will increase spending
by the construction industry in the region) or transportation system improvements that
reduce the cost of doing business in a region due to reduced travel delays and
transportation cost. Since IMPLAN cannot directly use transportation inputs (e.g.,
changes in vehicle miles traveled, travel delays) to estimate economic impacts, “pre-
processors” have been developed to convert the transportation inputs into a form that
can work within IMPLAN.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
This analysis applies the IMPLAN economic model for the entire Commonwealth of
Virginia, which includes all counties, main cities, metropolitan areas, congressional
districts, and zip codes in the Commonwealth. A region can be defined by selecting zip
codes, but this is of limited value because of minimal amounts of standard economic
data that are available below the county level. The geographic regions used in this
economic analysis include the regions in Virginia where the original impacts occur (or
the primary region) and the ‘rest of Virginia’ to capture the spillover effect that the
opportunity concepts would have beyond the primary region.
IMPLAN multipliers compute the direct, indirect, and induced effects on employment,
labor income, value added, output, and tax revenue generated per dollar of direct
spending for labor, goods, and services. Total economic impacts are equal to the
summation of the direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
Employment measures the number of full-time and part-time annual average jobs
for both employees and self-employed workers.
Labor income measures the employee compensation (e.g., the wages and
benefits paid to wage and salary employees) and proprietor income (e.g., the
profits earned by self-employed individuals).
Value added is the combination of labor income, other property type income
(e.g., corporate profits, interest income, and rental payments), and indirect
business taxes (e.g., taxes collected by businesses on behalf of the
government). It can also be defined as GSP, which is the sum of value added
from all industries in the Commonwealth.
Output is the value of production and is equal to value added plus intermediate
expenditures (e.g., the monies spent purchasing goods and services to create an
industry's production).
Tax revenue measures the property and sales tax revenue to the local
government, as well as changes in income tax revenues and taxes on production
and imports for the federal and state government, which are realized when local
resident and business activity changes.
Since IMPLAN is a static model, the EIA presented in this Study does not consider the
economic, industrial, and demographic changes, or changes in business costs that may
occur in Virginia over the next 20, 25, or 30 years.
Benefit-Cost Analysis
A BCA identifies, quantifies, and compares the expected benefits and costs of the most
viable opportunity concepts over an analysis period. The analysis period includes the
design/engineering, construction, and operation phases of the concept. This means that
on the cost side, it includes capital expenditures plus operating costs beyond the
completion of the opportunity concept.
The BCA converts potential gains (benefits) and losses (costs) of the most viable
opportunity concepts into monetary units and compares them. The following common
benefit-cost evaluation measures are included in this BCA:
Net present value (NPV) compares the net benefits (benefits minus costs) after
being discounted to present values using the real discount rate assumption. The
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
NPV provides a perspective on the overall dollar magnitude of cash flows over
time in today’s dollar terms.
Benefit-cost ratio (BCR) expresses the relation of discounted benefits to
discounted costs as a measure of the extent to which a project’s benefits either
exceed or fall short of the costs. The present value of incremental benefits is
divided by the present value of incremental costs to yield the BCR. A BCR more
than 1.0 means benefits outweigh cost, and the concept could be a good
investment. A BCR less than 1.0 means costs outweigh benefits and the concept
might not be a worthwhile investment. For example, a project with a BCR of 2.0
means that for every $1 invested, the financial benefit or (ROI) is $2.
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VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF RAIL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
DRPT Connects XXIV
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