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Testimony of Joel Griffith, The Heritage Foundation — Senate Small Business Committee, March 17, 2021

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Testimony of Joel Griffith, The Heritage Foundation — Senate Small Business Committee, March 17, 2021
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2021-03-17
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Testimony of Joel Griffith, The Heritage Foundation — Senate Small Business Committee, March 17, 2021

Summary

Written testimony of Joel Griffith, Research Fellow in Financial Regulations at The Heritage Foundation, before the Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, U.S. Senate, dated March 17, 2021. It reviews the economic effects of COVID-19 shutdowns, citing a 31.4% annualized contraction in the second quarter of 2020, 9.9 million fewer people employed, and federal spending of $6.551 trillion in fiscal 2020. It argues the Paycheck Protection Program has been inefficient, untargeted and ineffective, citing assessments putting its cost between $109,000 and $380,000 per job saved for jobs paying about $45,000. It states more than $800 billion has been approved through the program and that of the additional $284 billion provided in December only 36% had been obligated as of February 7. It also points to Department of Justice fraud cases and concludes reopening is the path to recovery.

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                                                       Testimony before the

                               Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship

                                                               U.S. Senate

                                                           March 17, 2021

                                                       Joel Griffith
                                         Research Fellow in Financial Regulations
                                                The Heritage Foundation


Thankyou Chairman Cardin, Ranking Member                                ignores the fact that small businesses by and
Paul, and other members of the committee for                            large do not report a drying up of credit. Re-
the opportunity to testify today. My name is                            opening the economy is the best relief for small
Joel Griffith. I am a Research Fellow in                                businesses, as evidenced by the divergent
Financial Regulations at The Heritage                                   economic results from state to state.
Foundation. The views I express in this
testimony are my own and should not be                                  The data certainly bear out the economic
construed as representing any official position                         decline stemmed from government-mandated
of The Heritage Foundation.                                             closures and people responding to what they
                                                                        heard from some public health officials.
This testimony will provide an overview of the
economic calamity stemming from the                                     For the first time in our nation’s history,
COVID-19 shutdowns, the varied strength of                              governments intentionally suppressed the
the economic recovery from state to state, small                        supply of goods and services. Likewise,
business conditions, and the Paycheck                                   restrictions on consumer activity artificially
Protection Program (PPP). This legislation                              suppressed demand. An historic plunge in the
provides for billions more of federal loans and                         production of goods, provision of services, and
grants despite the fact that billions of                                private investment resulted in the second
previously approved aid remains available.                              quarter of 2020.1
Some of these funds will flow to a program—
the State Small Business Credit Initiative—                             The robust recovery of the third quarter and the
with a history of problems. This federal aid                            much slower growth in the fourth quarter
crowds out private sector investment and                                closed more than two-thirds of the sharp

1
 The nation’s economy in the second quarter of 2020 shrank at a         qid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey (accessed February 24,
31.4% annualized rate. Personal consumption dropped at a 33.2%          2021). By the middle of 2020, the economy had contracted by 10.2%
annualized rate. Consumption of personal services dropped 41.8%         from its peak. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Series GDP,
annualized. Table 1.1.1, Bureau of Economic                             https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP (accessed February 24, 2021).
Analysis,https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#re
economic contraction. But much damage                                 initial assessments of PPP found that the
remains, with 9.9 million fewer individuals                           program cost between $109,000 and $380,000
employed 2 and hundreds of thousands of                               per job saved, job which paid on average
businesses closed forever, including more than                        $45,000 prior to the restrictions instituted by
100,000 restaurants.3                                                 governors and mayors.6

It’s not for want of government spending that                         On the other hand, the economic resurgence in
the economy still has not fully recovered. The                        Q3 of 2020 even as PPP payments declined
federal government borrowed, printed, and                             underscores how reopening can repair
spent trillions of dollars in an effort to cushion                    economic damage.
the economic downturn. Total federal spending
of $6.551 trillion in fiscal year 2020 exceeded                       Unemployment rates and business conditions
the prior year by $2.1 trillion, 4 an enormous                        vary wildly across the nation dependent largely
increase of more than $24,000 per family of                           on the restrictions some governors and mayors
four.5                                                                continue to impose on society. State and local
                                                                      policymakers oversee decisions that affect
                                                                      businesses’ abilities to operate, and they should
Rather, government-mandated closures and                              assume the potential costs of new and ongoing
public perception of the crisis continue to deter                     business, school, and other closures they
investment and suppress economic activity.                            impose. States with the most restrictive
The skyrocketing federal debt and rapidly                             economic policies are those that are suffering
expanding central bank balance sheet creates                          the largest business and employment losses.
the additional risk of a monetary crisis.
                                                                      Federal taxpayers should not continue to
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)                                 subsidize state and local decisions to shutter
has been Inefficient, Untargeted, and                                 businesses and ruin livelihoods. Renewing the
Ineffective. In the weeks immediately                                 PPP program moves the costs of overly
following the onset of the pandemic, some                             restrictive shutdowns to federal taxpayers and
federal government aid to businesses and                              allows governors additional latitude to keep
employees potentially impacted by shutdown                            society shuttered with one-size-fits-all policies.
orders and precautionary measures was                                 Targeted, temporary, and local economic
justifiable.                                                          restrictions may be necessary, but those
                                                                      decisions, and the costs that they incur, should
The small-business loan program has been                              be weighed by the responsible policymakers.7
ineffective at boosting employment. Three                             PPP incentivizes state and local policymakers

2
  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Series PAYEMS,                   National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 27431,
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS (accessed February 24,      November 2020,
2021).                                                                https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27431/w27431.p
3
  “Restaurant Industry in Free Fall; 10,000 Close in Three Months,”   df (accessed December 3, 2020); João Granja et al., “Did the
National Restaurant Association, December 7, 2020,                    Paycheck Protection Program Hit the Target?” Becker Friedman
https://restaurant.org/news/pressroom/press-releases/restaurant-      Institute for Economics at UChicago, November 2020,
industry-in-free-fall-10000-close-in (accessed February 24, 2021).    https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-
4
  Congressional Budget Office, “Historical Budget Data,” February     content/uploads/BFI_WP_202052_Revised.pdf (accessed December
11, 2021, https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-02/51134-2021-02-     3, 2020); David Autor et al., “An Evaluation of the Paycheck
11-historicalbudgetdata.xlsx (accessed February 24, 2021).            Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata,” MIT
5
  State and local governments increased spending by 15.4% from        Working Paper, July 2020, https://economics.mit.edu/files/20094
2015-2020 and in the depths of the recession in Q2 of 2020 actually   (accessed December 3, 2020).
spent 1.2% more than the prior year. Federal Reserve Bank of St.      7
                                                                        Ditch et al., “Bipartisan Senate COVID-19 Package Should do More
Louis, Series SLEXPND, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLEXPND     to combat COVID-19, Remove Wasteful Spending,” The Heritage
(accessed February 23, 2021).                                         Foundation, December 14, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/budget-
6
  Raj Chetty et al., “The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence      and-spending/report/bipartisan-senate-covid-19-package-should-do-
From a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data,”          more-combat-covid-19-remove (accessed March 15, 2021).



                                                                                                                                      2
to continue destructive shutdowns and allows                        investigations include a Brooklyn individual
them to shirk responsibility.                                       accused of obtaining a $1.9 million PPP loan
                                                                    by claiming to employ 50 people—and then
PPP Continues to Flow in Other Troubling                            using the proceeds to purchase multiple luxury
Ways. PPP was intended to assist businesses                         vehicles. 12 The Department of Justice is
impacted by the pandemic. Often, it benefits                        investigating an alleged fraud ring in San
well-funded and well-connected non-profits.                         Fernando Valley of using $18 million in PPP
                                                                    proceeds to purchase “gold coins, diamonds,
For instance, PPP funneled federal aid to                           jewelry, luxury watches, fine imported
Oprah-connected charities. 8 More than $80                          furnishings, designer handbags and clothing,
million in PPP funds flowed to dozens of                            cryptocurrency, and securities.” 13 Six
Planned Parenthood affiliates in 2020.9 In New                      individuals in Georgia and South Carolina are
York City, millions in government loans—                            charged with working together to fraudulently
some of which may be forgivable-- flowed to                         obtaining $1.5 million in PPP loans.14
entities such as the Philharmonic-Symphony of
New York, The Vivian Beaumont Theatre, and                          Congressionally Approved PPP Remains
School of American Ballet.10                                        Unused. Congress has already approved more
                                                                    than $1 trillion in aid intended for smaller
Left unsaid is the fact that quarterly charitable                   businesses, including more than $800 billion
giving actually rose by 2% in 2020 compared                         through the Paycheck Protection Program
with the year prior. 11 Private individuals and                     (PPP).
businesses are generously contributing to the
no-profits aligned with their objectives and                        Much of this aid is still available. Of the
personal beliefs. Some on are attempting to                         additional $284 billion provided for PPP in the
waive affiliate limitations for PPP for non-                        December stimulus package to be disbursed
profits. This really is an attempt to use the crisis                through March, only 36% had been obligated
as a mechanism for transferring hundreds of                         as of February 7. 15 Likewise, the December
millions of dollars to politically favored                          package provided $12 billion to Community
entities.                                                           Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs)
                                                                    and Minority Depository Institutions (MDIs) to
Extensive PPP Fraud Continues to Stretch                            lend.
Law Enforcement. A few noteworthy
8
  Adam Andrzejewski, “Oprah Connected Charities Took Almost         2020 https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/brooklyn-man-arrested-
300k in Federal Paycheck Protection Program,” Forbes, March 12,     19-million-paycheck-protection-program-fraud (accessed March 15,
2021,                                                               2021).
                                                                    13
https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamandrzejewski/2021/03/12/oprah-        3 Additional Members of Alleged Fraud Ring Based in San
connected-charities-took-almost-300k-in-federal-paycheck-           Fernando Valley Arrested on Charges of Exploiting COVID-Relief
protection-program-ppp-funding/amp/ (accessed March 15, 2021).      Programs, United States Department of Justice, March 12, 2021,
9
  Planned Parenthood, “Annual Report 2019–2020,”                    https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/3-additional-members-alleged-
https://www.plannedparenthood.org/uploads/filer_public/67/30/6730   fraud-ring-based-san-fernando-valley-arrested-charges (accessed
5ea1-8da2-4cee-9191-19228c1d6f70/210219-annual-report-2019-         March 15, 2021).
                                                                    14
2020-web-final.pdf (accessed February 19, 2021).                       Six Charged in Connection with a $3 Million Paycheck Protection
10
   Open the Books, SBA Paycheck Protection Program Loans Over       Program Fraud Scheme, United States Department of Justice, January
$1M,                                                                28, 2021, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/six-charged-connection-3-
https://www.openthebooks.com/maps/?Map=90022&MapType=Pin            million-paycheck-protection-program-fraud-scheme (accessed March
(accessed March 15, 2021).                                          15, 2021).
11
   https://institute.blackbaud.com/the-blackbaud-institute-         15
                                                                       U.S. Small Business Administration, “Paycheck Protection
index/#:~:text=5.3%25-                                              Program (PPP) Report: Approvals through 2/15/2021,”
,In%202020%2C%20overall%20charitable%20giving%20in%20the            https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2021-
%20United%20States%20increased,Charitable%20Giving%20Report         02/PPP_Report_Public_210215-508.pdf (accessed February 24,
%20for%20more.                                                      2021).
12
   Brooklyn Man Arrested for $1.9 Million Paycheck Protection
Program Fraud, United States Department of Justice, December 21,



                                                                                                                                    3
The American Rescue Plan Act provided $15                         More Federal Government Lending to
billion more for the Targeted Economic Injury                     Businesses Crowds out the Private Sector.
Disaster Loan Program even though as of                           Our credit markets serve an important function
February 12, none of the $20 billion                              of efficiently allocating resources across the
appropriated for Economic Injury Disaster                         economy. Usually, businesses and projects
Loans had been obligated. 16 The Act also                         must compete with each other to obtain limited
included another $7.25 billion for PPP.                           amounts of capital in order to secure the
                                                                  resources needed to function. Interest rates or
Small Businesses are Being Serviced by the                        return on equity serve as important price
Credit Markets. It’s a misnomer that credit                       signals---and also determine which businesses
markets are not providing funds to small                          ultimately will obtain the capital. The flow of
businesses. Most small businesses are saying                      capital from the federal government to private
they are generally not looking for more credit.17                 businesses alters this equation. By delivering
Only three percent of respondents in a recent                     capital at sub-market interest rates or
National Federation of Independent Business                       sometimes in the form of outright grants,
(NFIB) survey reported their borrowing needs                      businesses which otherwise may not secure
were not satisfied. The survey also reported the                  funding in a competitive environment from an
following; “Twenty-six percent reported all                       investor find it possible to obtain capital—and
credit needs met (up 1 point) and 60 percent                      to continue consuming limited resources.
said they were not interested in a loan (up 2
points). A net 3 percent reported their last loan                 The Small Business Administration (SBA)
was harder to get than in previous attempts (up                   loan guarantees now secure more than 50% of
1 point).”18 Small business credit conditions in                  all outstanding loan balances as of Q3 2020—
December—based on the percentage of                               up from less than 10% at the beginning of
businesses     reporting    “easier”     lending                  2020.22
conditions vs. “harder” lending conditions—
were identical to conditions one year prior,                      Reopening the Economy is Saving Small
months before any COVID-19 impact began.19                        Businesses. Full economic recovery does not
                                                                  stem from stimulus checks or bailouts from
This stands in stark contrast to the Great                        Washington. Rather, it’s largely a result of
Recession more than a decade ago where credit                     individuals and businesses safely and legally
conditions according to the same index                            interacting with others. The historic economic
plunged, taking years to recover to their pre-                    rebound this summer proves that those properly
recession levels.20 In fact, obtaining financing                  informed of the actual risks of the virus and the
is the reported top concern of just 1 percent of                  appropriate     mitigation      measures      are
small business owners. 21 In past economic                        enthusiastically participating in this reopening.
crises, 37 percent have reported financing and
interest rates as a top concern.                                  Nationally, economic growth in last year’s
                                                                  third quarter smashed all prior records —
                                                                  growing at a stunning 33.4% annual

16
   U.S. Small Business Administration, “COVID-19 EIDL Loans       19
                                                                     Ibid.
Report 2021,” February 16, 2021,                                  20
                                                                     Ibid.
                                                                  21
https://www.sba.gov/document/report-covid-19-eidl-loans-report-      Ibid.
2021 (accessed February 24, 2021).                                22
                                                                     Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, “kcFed Small Business
17
   William C. Dunkelberg and Holly Wade, NFIB Small Business      Lending Survey,” Chart 2, December 21, 2020,
Economic Trends, NFIB Research Center, December 2020,             https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/research/indicat
https://assets.nfib.com/nfibcom/SBET-Dec-2020.pdf (accessed       orsdata/smallbusiness/2020/small%20business%20lending%20survey
February 23, 2021).                                               %20template%203rd%20quarter%20-%2012212020v2.pdf?la=en
18
   Ibid.                                                          (accessed February 24, 2021).



                                                                                                                                     4
pace. 23 Record growth occurred even as                                thousands of businesses out of business,
government transfer payments and Paycheck                              resulting in 8.4% unemployment.26
Protection Program expenditures dropped by
20% in the quarter.24                                                  Meanwhile, unemployment in numerous
                                                                       communities in Alabama, Idaho, Iowa,
The pace of the recovery varies widely across                          Nebraska, South Dakota, and Utah is at 3% or
the nation due to lockdown restrictions—                               less. The statewide unemployment rate of
ostensibly implemented to contain the spread                           under 4% in Alabama, Iowa, Kansas,
of the virus.                                                          Nebraska, South Dakota, Utah, and Vermont
                                                                       contrasts sharply with rates at least twice as
The Federal Reserve State Coincident                                   high in California, Colorado, Connecticut,
Indexes—an approximation of state GDP—                                 Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada, New York, and
vividly illustrates how variant the economic                           Rhode Island.27 Overall, in December, the 10
recovery is based on states. 25 This index                             states with the fewest restrictions in place 28
suggests economic output at the end of 2020                            averaged 4.7 percent unemployment—while
was actually greater than pre-pandemic in                              the 10 states with the most restrictions
Utah, Missouri, Idaho, Nebraska, Alaska,                               averaged 7.1 percent unemployment.29
South Dakota, Mississippi, and Georgia—
notably states without crushing, long-                                 Conclusion:
lasting shutdowns. The economies in Hawaii,
Michigan, Rhode Island, Massachusetts all                              Businesses across parts of the nation face
remain more than 10% smaller. Meanwhile,                               economic hardship as a result of the myriad of
states like New York, Hawaii, and Illinois                             COVID-19 restrictions enacted by state and
remain mired in severe recessions. Only this                           local governments. Resolution requires
month did Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) and                                 governors and mayors to permit people once
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D-IL) admit                              again to freely create, work, shop, and engage.
that their shutdowns of the service sectors may
need to be relaxed.                                                    The economic misery persistent across portions
                                                                       of the nation should not be used an excuse to
In El Centro, California, 17.7% are                                    further expand government control over the
unemployed, Los Angeles suffers from 9.9%                              financial system and credit allocation.
unemployment. Across New York City,
draconian restrictions and an army of                                  Any additional federal relief measures should
compliance officers continue to push tens of                           provide legal protections for businesses to
                                                                       reopen and tailor aid to meet the health crisis.30

23                                                                     27
   U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Economic Accounts,          U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rates for
Table 1, January 28, 2021,                                             Metropolitan Areas, preliminary for December 2020,
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-01/gdp4q20_adv.xlsx       https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm (accessed February 23,
(accessed February 16, 2021).                                          2021).
24
   U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Effects of Selected Federal       28
                                                                          Adam McCann, “States with the Fewest Coronavirus Restrictions,”
Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income,                         WalletHub, January 26, 2021, https://wallethub.com/edu/states-
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-10/effects-of-selected-   coronavirus-restrictions/73818 (accessed February 4, 2021).
                                                                       29
federal-pandemic-response-programs-on-personal-income-2020q3-             U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area
adv.xlsx (accessed February 16, 2021).                                 Unemployment Statistics Data Series, December 2020,
25
   Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, State Coincident Indexes,     https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm (accessed February 4,
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-       2021).
data/coincident/coincident-revised.xls (accessed February 16, 2021).   30
                                                                          The Heritage Foundation’s Coronavirus Commission articulates
26
   U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rates for             specific measures Congress can take, including the following:
Metropolitan Areas, preliminary for December 2020,                     partnering with key strategic allies in Western Europe and the Indo-
https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm (accessed February 23,      Pacific, removing barriers to free trade while simultaneously
2021).                                                                 protecting intellectual property rights, and transitioning the temporary
                                                                       waivers and emergency exceptions in numerous sectors into



                                                                                                                                             5
A full recovery requires a reopening rather than
more fiat currency, borrowing, and government
spending programs. Only then will we see both
investment and consumption return in full
force. Businesses don’t need government
largesse. And workers do not need more
government mandates. What our nation needs
is a continued reopening.




permanent regulatory reformSee Saving Lives and Livelihoods;       http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2020/NCRC_FINAL.pdf
Recommendations for Recovery, National Coronavirus Recovery        (accessed March 9, 2021).
Commission, a project of The Heritage Foundation, June 10, 2020,




                                                                                                                           6
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Foundation or its board of trustees.




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