Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy — Department of Commerce (December 2020)
Summary
The Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy, Transitioning to an Equitable Clean Energy Future, is a December 2020 report of the Washington State Department of Commerce. A letter of transmittal dated December 31, 2020, from Lisa Brown, Director, is addressed to Governor Jay Inslee and the Washington State Legislature. The letter states that the strategy offers a blueprint for nearly eliminating the use of climate-threatening fossil fuels by 2050 while continuing to maintain and grow a prosperous economy. The front matter lists Department of Commerce staff and other state agencies that assisted, followed by a table of contents that includes Introduction, Executive Summary, Priority Recommendations and Crosscutting Issues.
Summary drafted by a model from the document's text below and checked by script against that text before publication. It is a navigation aid, not a reading of what the document proves. Where AI is used
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“Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy — Department of Commerce (December 2020).”
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We strengthen communities
Washington 2021
State Energy Strategy
Transitioning to an Equitable Clean Energy Future
DECEMBER 2020
Cover: Engineer standing a top of windmill.
This page: Wind turbine, Goldendale, WA. Clean Energy Transition Institute
Letter of Transmittal
December 31, 2020
The Honorable Jay Inslee Governor of Washington
Brad Hendrickson Secretary of the Senate
Bernard Dean Chief Clerk of the House
Olympia, WA 98504
Dear Governor Inslee and Members of the Washington State Legislature:
I am pleased to deliver to you, and to the families and communities of our state, the
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy. This strategy looks ahead — beyond the very
difficult current conditions of pandemic and recession — to the future of Washington.
Much like the pandemic, climate change is a global emergency that can be solved by a Lisa Brown, Ph.D.
combination of individual action and government leadership. The longer we delay necessary Director,
action, the harder it will be to contain and mitigate the harm. This strategy offers a blueprint Washington State
for how, by 2050, we can nearly eliminate the use of climate-threatening fossil fuels while Department of
continuing to maintain and grow a prosperous economy. Commerce
We have already shown how to reduce energy use and grow our economy. As our state’s
population and economy have increased over the past decade, we’ve adopted efficiencies and
clean energy policies to bring down per-capita emission levels, creating thousands of jobs at
the same time. Still, Washington remains far from the overall reductions necessary to combat
climate change. Last year’s historic slate of energy policies and investments help set the
stage for emissions reductions. We have more to do.
In developing the strategy, the Department of Commerce engaged with community and
industry leaders. The outcome reflects objectives you established: maintaining affordable
and reliable energy supplies, supporting the economy and meeting our state’s climate goals.
You encouraged us to develop a strategy that achieves the science-based limits on
greenhouse gas emissions. We did that.
The strategy also reflects your concern about disproportionate impacts on vulnerable
populations and highly impacted communities. The recommendations in the strategy ensure
that Tribes, rural communities and low-income households are partners and benefactors in
our state’s clean energy transition.
This strategy could not have been developed without the dedication of our advisory
committee members, a host of technical experts, the staff at the Department of Commerce,
professionals at other state agencies and the many residents who urged us to identify steps
to protect future generations of Washingtonians. This participation was especially meaningful
given the difficult circumstances resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Continued
3
Just as development of the strategy required extensive collaboration and cooperation,
so will implementation of the recommendations. The emission reductions are challenging.
Meeting them will require innovation and investment. Moving forward, the process must
include leaders in local, state and Tribal governments, regional organizations, utilities,
private sector businesses and public interest advocates.
To achieve an equitable transition to a clean energy future, Washington will need to
adopt a coordinated “whole-system” approach. We must encourage the contributions and
technical support of the many players involved and the importance of community voices.
This will require significant institutional, economic and personal commitment from our
state and its leaders.
The Department of Commerce and the dedicated professionals who serve within the
agency stand ready to support you as we realize the transition to a clean energy future
on behalf of our state and our planet.
Sincerely,
Lisa Brown, Ph.D.
Director
4 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Columbia River. Clean Energy Transition Institute
Acknowledgments
Washington State Department of Commerce
Lisa Brown, Ph.D.
Director
Michael Furze
Assistant Director, Energy Division
Glenn Blackmon, Ph.D.
Manager, Energy Policy Office
Kate Kelly, Project Lead
Energy Policy Staff Commerce Staff
Michael Breish Dave Andersen Emily Salzberg
Peter Moulton Russ Elliott Cheryl Smith
Chuck Murray Jennifer Grove Hanna Waterstrat
Greg Nothstein Ian Kinder-Pyle Brian Young
Elizabeth Osborne Elizabeth King
Austin Scharff Rachel Lucas
Sarah Vorpahl, Ph.D. Amanda Rains
Additional assistance was provided by these state agencies:
Washington State Departments of Ecology, Fish and Wildlife, Natural Resources,
and Transportation, the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission,
the Energy Facility Site Evaluation Council, the Office of Governor Jay Inslee,
and the Washington State University Energy Program.
Numerous individuals and organizations provided expertise and are
acknowledged in the Technical Advisory Process section.
Washington State Department of Commerce
Kate Kelly, 360-628-6846, kate.kelly@commerce.wa.gov
ENERGY DIVISION
1011 Plum St. SE
P.O. Box 42525
Olympia, WA 98504-2525
www.commerce.wa.gov
For people with disabilities, this report is available on request in other formats.
To submit a request, please call 360.725.4000 (TTY 360.586.0772)
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 5
Table of Contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Washington’s Clean Energy Promise and Challenge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Developing a Deep Decarbonization Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Priority Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Crosscutting Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1. Increased Resources for Planning, Data Analysis and Outreach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2. Role of Investment in an Equitable and Inclusive Transition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3. Universal Broadband Access as a Foundation for Energy Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
4. Transition of the Fossil Natural Gas Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
5. Valuable Role of Comprehensive Pricing Mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
6. Benefits of Research, Development and Early Deployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
7. Development of Green Hydrogen and Clean Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Key Actions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
A. Build an Equitable, Inclusive, Resilient Clean Energy Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1. Recognize that No Single Definition of Equity May be Satisfactory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2. Break from Historical Patterns and Narratives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3. Ensure Public Participation and Inclusion of Historically Marginalized Voices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
4. Prioritize Energy Resiliency as Part of Energy Policy and Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
5. Embed Equity in the Design of Clean Energy Policies and Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
B. Achieve the State’s Greenhouse Gas Emission’s Limits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1. Washington State Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
1.1. Pathway to Zero Net Emissions in 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
1.2. Washington’s 2030 Emissions Challenge: Cutting Energy Emissions in Half . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2. Pathways to Decarbonization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.1. Decarbonization Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.2. Changes in Energy Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.3. Modeling the Supply Side . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.4. Costs and Benefits of Decarbonization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
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3. Modeling Implications for Washington’s Energy Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.1. Transportation Sector-Specific Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
3.2. Building Sector-Specific Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.3. Industry Sector-Specific Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
3.4. Electricity Sector-Specific Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
C. Use Energy More Efficiently and Decarbonize Transportation Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
1. Move People and Goods More Efficiently and Equitably . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
1.1. Set Clear and Ambitious Targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
1.2. Improve Transportation System Planning and Coordination, Prioritizing VMT Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
1.3. Expand and Align Transportation Funding with Emissions and Equity Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
1.4. Remove Barriers to Transit, Walking and Cycling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
1.5. Support Measures to Optimize Freight VMT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
1.6 Continue to Support Vehicle Fuel Economy Improvements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
2. Electrify Vehicles and Switch to Low-Carbon Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
2.1. Set Clear and Ambitious Statewide Targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
2.2. Improve Planning and Oversight of BEV Charging and FCV Fueling Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
2.3. Accelerate the Market for BEVs and FCVs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
D. Reduce Energy Consumption and Emissions in the Built Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
1. Establish a Building Decarbonization Policy Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
1.1. Expand Building Decarbonization Leadership Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
1.2. Develop a Detailed Washington Building Decarbonization Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
1.3. Align Utility Ratepayer Programs Funded around Decarbonization Performance Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
1.4. Accelerate Adoption of Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Refrigerants and Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
2. Maximize Energy Efficiency and Electrification in Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
2.1. Strengthen and Expand Energy Codes and Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
2.2. Lead by Example with Public Capital Projects and Energy Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
2.3. Align Utility Programs with State Mandates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
2.4. Create and Fund a High Efficiency Electrification Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
2.5. Broaden the Scope and Scale of the Low-Income Household Energy Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
2.6. Create Market Transformation in Support of Eliminating Greenhouse Gas Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
3. Develop Plans for the Long-term Transition of the Natural Gas Distribution System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 7
E. Industrial Transformation and Workforce Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
1. Build a Dataset and Technologies to Decarbonize the Industrial Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
1.1. Build the Supporting Datasets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
1.2 Assess the Potential for Industrial Sector Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
1.3. Lay the Groundwork for Carbon Capture, Use and Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
2. Establish a Technology-Neutral Regulatory Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
2.1. Adopt a Low Carbon Fuels Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
2.2. Regulatory Tools to Measure, Mitigate and Reduce Emissions from Industrial Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
2.3 Address Competitive Issues Raised by Emissions Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
3. Develop and Implement a Coordinated Clean Energy Industrial Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
3.1. Adopt a Comprehensive Clean Energy Plan for Industrial Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
3.2 Create a Structure to Implement a Clean Industrial Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
3.3 Provide Centralized Technical Assistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
4. Support Clean Energy Research, Innovation and Deployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
4.1. Continue to Invest in the Clean Energy Fund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
4.2. Cluster around Centers of Research, Development and Entrepreneurship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
4.3. Continue Washington’s Leadership in Sustainable Aviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.4. Explore a New Hydrogen Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
4.5. Continue to Assess Biomass as a Foundational Resource . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
5. Expand Policies to Consider Consumption-based Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
5.1. Conduct a Consumption-based Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
5.2. Incentivize Environmental Product Declarations for Products & Materials Consumed in State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
6. Leverage the Economic Transition to Create New Inclusive, Living-Wage Jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
6.1 Invest in Green Public Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
6.2 Invest in Reducing Emissions from State Contracts and Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
6.3 Invest in Washington’s Smart Buildings Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
6.4 Establish Accredited System of Regional Dual-Credit Career & Technical Education Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
6.5 Establish the Washington Climate Corps Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
6.6 Establish a Battery-Electric Bus Fleet Training Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
6.7 Prepare for a Just Industrial Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
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F. 100% Clean Electricity to Meet the Needs of a Decarbonized Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
1. Accelerate Investment in Renewable Generating Resources and Transmission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
1.1. Assess the Potential for and Facilitate Deployment of New Clean Energy Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
1.2. Strengthen the Transmission System across the West and within the State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
1.3. Encourage and Monitor Development of a Resource Adequacy Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
1.4. Reform and Expand Wholesale Electricity Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
2. Build a Smart and Flexible Grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
2.1. Expand the State’s Energy Infrastructure Security & Emergency Management Capabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
2.2 Define and Value Required Storage Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
2.3. Prepare for Widespread Deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
2.4. Pursue Universal, Statewide Deployment of Broadband . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
2.5. Advance Grid Modernization with Clean Energy Fund Investments in Resilient & Flexible Projects . . . . . . . . . . . 128
3. Facilitate Community Deployment of Renewable Generation Resources and Grid Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
3.1. Increase the Opportunity for Community DERs and Energy Program Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
3.2 Develop Tools for Equitable Energy Distribution and Deployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
List of Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
List of Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Washington State Energy Strategy Advisory Committee Members . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Technical Advisory Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 9
Introduction
Washington's 11
Clean Energy Promise
and Challenge
Forest at Sol Duc Falls in Olympic National Park, Washington.
10 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Inge Johnsson/Alamy Stock Photo
Introduction
Washington’s Clean Energy Promise
and Challenge
As we work together to recover from the economic
impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change
continues to threaten the health and economic security
of Washingtonians. Rural and low-income communities
are disproportionately exposed to this threat. Avoiding the
worst impacts of climate change requires an aggressive,
comprehensive commitment to decreasing greenhouse
gas emissions rapidly and equitably across all of Washing-
ton State’s energy sectors: transportation, buildings, elec-
tricity and industry. The longer we delay in taking definitive
Family boating on the Puget Sound. Sheri Hooley
action, the greater the threat to current and future genera-
tions, and the more costly it will be.
In 2019, the Washington State Legislature directed the The Department of Commerce developed the 2021 State
Department of Commerce to revise the State Energy Strat- Energy Strategy collaboratively with stakeholders and
egy, last updated in 2012, to align the strategy with the members of the public. The Legislature established a
requirements of the Energy Independence Act,1 the Clean 27-member advisory committee made up of legislators,
Energy Transformation Act and the state’s greenhouse
2 government officials, and representatives of civic orga-
gas emission reduction limits. State law declares that a
3 nizations, energy and utility businesses, as well as public
successful state energy strategy balances three goals: 4 interest advocates.6 (See the list of Advisory Committee
members, page 135.) The committee met multiple times
1. Maintaining competitive energy prices that are fair between January and December 2020, weighing in on the
and reasonable for consumers and businesses and emerging analysis, findings and potential policies.
support our state's continued economic success;
The public also had opportunities to be involved through-
2. Increasing competitiveness by fostering a clean
out the development of the 2021 State Energy Strategy.
energy economy and jobs through business and
General outreach efforts included communication through
workforce development; and
an email sign-up list, creating awareness at existing
3. Meeting the state's obligations to reduce venues and events and implementing opportunities for
greenhouse gas emissions. public listening and comment in meetings and online.
To meet those goals the Legislature further lays out Toward the end of the process, there was a public hearing
nine principles to guide strategy development and to provide a forum for the Department of Commerce to
implementation.5 gather formal input on the draft strategy. Whenever possi-
ble, advisory committee meetings and discussions were
open to the public, accessible remotely and included an
opportunity for public comment.
1
Chapter 19.285 RCW.
2
Chapter 19.405 RCW.
3
Chapter 43.21F.090 RCW.
4
Chapter 43.21F.010 RCW.
5
Chapter 43.21F.088 RCW.
6
Chapter 43.21F.090 RCW.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 11
While the strategy was developed transparently and “whole-system” approach that emphasizes the contribu-
collaboratively, there is more outreach to be done to tions and technical support of the many players involved.
guide implementation of the identified recommendations.
Moving forward, Washington’s communities and families Washingtonians feel the impacts of climate change and
must have the opportunity to inform strategy implemen- the lack of a cohesive and forward-looking approach every
tation. There must be additional technical, financial and day. Examples include the burden of heating costs for
human resources for community participation in the clean those who live in drafty and inefficient homes; the cost of
energy transition. This includes planning, evaluating and moving communities and infrastructure out of harm’s way
implementing energy and resilience projects that meet the due to rising sea level; the costs to families dealing with
needs of communities in all parts of the state. asthma, heart conditions and other health impacts due to
poor air quality; the loss of food availability, jobs and live-
At the same time, we must identify and amend laws and lihoods due to ocean acidification; and much more. These
rules, remove barriers and change systems that prevent examples illustrate the cost of inaction.
equitable and just participation in our policy choices and
the costs and benefits of implementing them, while also The 2021 State Energy Strategy offers a path forward
evaluating progress, building information (e.g., technical, for Washington to transform its economy to be vital
social and political) and learning from engagement efforts. and productive without relying on fossil fuels and their
Explicitly including an adaptive management approach in pollution. This transformation — deep decarbonization —
implementation will strengthen and make the state energy requires significant public and private commitment.
strategy more relevant into the future. It requires investment in equipment and infrastructure,
innovation and workforce development.
Steps must be taken to coordinate and collaborate among
policy makers in local governments, in Tribal governments, At the same time, there will be savings with less spending
across state government and in regional organizations. on fossil fuels imported from outside the state. Implement-
All of those actors are engaged in decarbonization at some ing the strategy will result in job creation, economic devel-
level, creating a patchwork of goals, standards, programs opment, environmental protection and improved public
and outcomes around the state. To achieve a dramatic health. Solutions are all around us in the choices we make
turnaround in outcomes and a more equitable transi- — from the cars we buy, to how we heat our homes, to the
tion, Washington will need to adopt a more coordinated way we train our workforce.
DC fast-charging station in use at the Outlet Shoppes in Burlington, WA.
12 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy WA State Department of Transportation
2018 Avista Solar Select Celebratory Ribbon Cutting. Office of the Governor
"We can achieve this transformation in a way that supports our other
public policy goals for economic development, reliable and affordable
energy supply, good-paying jobs social equity and environmental justice.
We can make this transition in a way that both cleans up our air and
jumpstarts our economy. We know it’s possible because it’s happening
right now all over our state. Washington’s culture of innovation, our skilled
workforce and competitive advantage are our greatest assets, and they
are the reasons we are a global leader in the clean energy transition."
GOVERNOR JAY INSLEE
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 13
Executive
Summary
Developing a 15
Deep Decarbonization
Framework
Priority 16
Recommendations
Crosscutting 17
Issues
Columbia River, Goldendale WA.
14 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Clean Energy Transition Institute
Executive Summary
Avoiding the worst impacts of climate change requires Developing a Deep Decarbonization Framework
a comprehensive commitment to decreasing greenhouse The analytical framework for the 2021 State Energy
gas emissions. Washington launched initial efforts with Strategy is a comprehensive assessment of the options
legislation to require clean electricity and efficient build- for achieving the state’s emissions limits. This “deep
ings. Much more is required in the near term to realize the decarbonization pathway” analysis searches for the lowest
transition to a clean economy. The path forward requires cost path to reduce emissions based on what we know
investment and action and promises a stronger and more today about technologies, costs and markets. By exploring
just economy. multiple pathways, the analysis illuminates tradeoffs for
decision makers.
The 2021 State Energy Strategy is designed to provide a
roadmap for meeting the state’s greenhouse gas emission Washington’s legislatively mandated emissions limits
limits. Enacted in 2020, the law commits Washington to decrease steeply over the next nine years and eventually
limits of 45% below 1990 levels by 2030, 70% below 1990 require the replacement of virtually all fossil fuels. The
levels by 2040 and 95% below 1990 levels with net zero range of feasible pathways is smaller than studies have
emissions by 2050.7 found when analyzing less ambitious limits. To meet the
current limits, Washington needs to move aggressively
The path to a clean energy economy outlined in this strat-
on multiple fronts, especially to meet the 2030 limit.
egy requires rethinking virtually every aspect of energy use
in Washington. The state needs more efficient buildings, TRANSPORTATION, at 45% of the state’s 2018 emissions,
smarter appliances, vehicles using new sources of energy, Washington must embrace a multi-pronged strategy in
investments in industrial processes, a stronger electricity this sector of electrifying as many passenger, truck and
grid and significant innovation. freight vehicles as possible; investing immediately in the
infrastructure required to support massive vehicle electri-
Washington is known for innovation and environmental
fication; and developing incentives and land-use plans to
stewardship — as illustrated by its commitment to a 100%
reduce miles traveled and increase other modes of trans-
clean electricity grid. This strategy represents the next
port, such as transit, cycling and walking.
step — to find the policies and actions that will achieve
the state’s climate protection goals, put it on the road BUILDINGS, with 23% of the state’s emissions, require a
to reducing emissions to net zero by 2050 and improve 10-year market transformation approach that combines
quality of life and economic vitality. Particularly in light transitioning from fossil gas to electrification, with deep
of COVID-19’s devastating economic impacts, a just and levels of efficiency for new and existing buildings, and
equitable state energy strategy is a necessary condition smart building demand management.
for success. The strategy must benefit people, businesses,
and rural, urban, highly impacted and indigenous commu- ELECTRICITY, at 16% of the state’s emissions, must be
nities throughout the state. 100% clean by 2030 and by 2050 must roughly double
its output, while continuing to provide reliable power.
7
Chapter 19.285 RCW.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 15
INDUSTRY must be a focus of policy makers to reduce The economic analysis demonstrates that the state can
emissions where possible; develop clean fuels and carbon make this transition to clean energy and still maintain its
capture; work with energy-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) economic vitality. The total amount spent on energy is
businesses to mitigate the impacts of the clean energy within the historical range — 5-7% of gross state product
transition; and develop a clean energy industrial policy to — but the money is spent on equipment and infrastruc-
guide the state’s low-carbon future. ture instead of imported fossil fuels. The clean energy
investments in houses, factories, the power grid and the
Figure 1 below shows the state’s total historical gross transportation system create demand for additional skilled
greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2018 and workers and managers. The largest employment increase
projected gross emissions from 2020 to 2050 by source. is in the construction sector and involves occupations
that typically require less than a four-year undergraduate
The deep decarbonization approach of looking at multiple
degree. The long-term financial payoff for these invest-
sectors of the economy simultaneously yields insights
ments includes increased employment and income and
that could easily be missed in a sector-by-sector approach.
economic activity, with businesses and households spend-
For example, an important cross-sector finding is that
ing significantly less on the direct costs of energy.
clean fuels, such as renewable hydrogen and clean
synthetic or biogenic fuels, will be key to decarboniza-
tion. Washington can produce these products using clean, Priority Recommendations
renewable or non-emitting electricity, carbon captured The Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy identifies
from industrial processes and fuels derived from biomass policies and actions to achieve the state’s greenhouse gas
and other biogenic feedstocks (see Figure 23). Doing so limits and transition to 100% clean energy. This represents
can improve the flexibility of the electric system to manage a significant and intentional transition for the state’s econ-
high levels of intermittent renewable power generation. omy. Highly impacted communities and vulnerable popu-
These fuels will replace fossil fuels in uses that cannot be lations must gain the most from this transition as they
quickly or completely converted to direct use of electricity. are most at risk from worsening climate impacts. At the
FIGURE 1. HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED GROSS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
IN WASHINGTON STATE
120 Historical Emissions Projected Emissions
100 Reference Scenario
Emissions (MMT CO2e)
Non-Energy
80
60 Transport
Drop between 2018 and
2020 due to Covid-19
40
Industry
Electrification Scenario
20
Residential
Commercial
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: Washington State Department of Ecology for historical emissions (2018 value is preliminary).
Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Technical Report, December 11, 2020 (p. 26).
16 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
same time, decarbonization also presents many opportu- industrial sector, policy makers lack basic information
nities for addressing inequities among the residents and about manufacturing processes, opportunities for
communities in our state including: efficiency and conversion to clean energy and the effects
of potential carbon reduction.
j Enhancing resilience in rural Washington by
strengthening the electric grid to deliver clean energy Planning and accountability in the transportation sector
and using universal broadband access to support a is shared across multiple jurisdictions with inadequate
smart grid and remote work; coordination and unclear policy direction. Progress in
j Growing and diversifying Washington’s economy, the building sector will require more staff resources
and increasing the prevalence of good, family-sustaining to develop a net-zero energy code and benchmark the
jobs by expanding access to education and training energy performance of existing buildings. The transition
for workers; also requires more effort by the state to provide technical
assistance and outreach to industry, local government,
j Improving health outcomes with more deliberative
highly impacted communities and consumers.
siting processes, upgrades to aging housing stock and
cleaner transit options; and
j Improving the comfort of homes, growing neighbor- 2. Role of Investment in an Equitable and
Inclusive Transition.
hood businesses and ensuring basic necessities are
Throughout the strategy there is a common pattern over
accessible and affordable to more Washingtonians,
time where aggressive climate action requires substan-
including those without an automobile or living in our
tial initial investment in equipment and infrastructure.
most remote communities.
This upfront cost yields a payoff in later years in reduced
The strategy is organized by broad sectors of the state’s purchases of fossil fuels while providing an immediate
economy, where similar technological and policy issues opportunity for skilled workers and businesses. It also
are present. It includes dozens of individual recommen- requires access to capital on reasonable terms.
dations for action by policy makers, government agen-
For example, the electricity sector must invest in trans-
cies, utilities, the private sector and individual households.
mission capacity and grid enhancements to capture the
Please see the Key Actions List on page 19.
benefits of fossil-free clean electricity. Transportation
needs charging and fueling stations. Housing needs retro-
Crosscutting Issues fits. High-efficiency consumer equipment and vehicles are
While the strategy is primarily organized along the ways often more expensive to purchase but much less expen-
that energy is used in the economy — by end-use sectors sive to operate.
— several cross-cutting issues arise in more than one
sector. In many cases, these issues will not be addressed Because the strategy relies so heavily on investments
effectively within any one sector or would best be resolved and infrastructure, the risk is high that the clean energy
at a higher level. These include: transition will exacerbate the inequitable distribution of
wealth and prosperity. Those with access to capital, such
as home equity or savings, could make the upfront invest-
1. Increased Resources for Planning, ments to shift to less expensive clean energy. This could
Data Analysis and Outreach leave those without resources paying for expensive fossil
A common theme across the strategy is the lack of fuels and the infrastructure used to produce and deliver
adequate capabilities in government to evaluate, commu- them. Public sector mechanisms to finance the transition
nicate and plan for the clean energy transition. In the are necessary to avoid this result.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 17
3. Universal Broadband Access as a Foundation and realize appropriate value for it. More accurate pricing
for Energy Transition of energy, as a standalone policy, is unlikely to achieve
The need for universal broadband access is outside the emissions reduction limits. Specific policies will be more
customary ambit of energy policy, but this need emerges successful when energy prices properly align with environ-
across sectors. There are multiple examples where univer- mental and other costs.
sal, reliable Internet access is required to capture energy
efficiency improvements and increase access to fossil-free
energy resources. Perhaps the most obvious is to reduce 6. Benefits of Research, Development and
travel by enabling work from remote locations. This is Early Deployment
another area with great risk of injustice. Without univer- The 2021 State Energy Strategy avoids reliance on yet-
sal broadband access, many of the clean energy benefits to-be-invented technologies, but it embraces many solu-
identified in the strategy will be realized only by wealthier tions that are not yet widely deployed, such as electric and
households and those outside rural areas. hydrogen vehicles, advanced building techniques, green
hydrogen production and intelligent grid devices. The
emphasis on advanced technology is unavoidable given
4. Transition of the Fossil Natural Gas Industry the ambition of the state’s emissions reduction limits. It
Natural gas is an important part of the state’s economy, presents an opportunity to make even more and faster
with billions of dollars invested in distribution infrastruc- progress through research and innovation, and to boost
ture, millions of customers using its product and thou- the state’s economy.
sands of people employed in the industry. Fossil natural
gas has lower direct emissions than either coal or petro- These efforts might yield efficiency gains or cost reduc-
leum. As a result, in some contexts past policies have tions for energy storage, nuclear power generation,
identified natural gas as a clean source of energy. geothermal energy, offshore wind, power grid control or
many other technologies. This calls for collaboration with
However, the state’s long-term greenhouse gas emissions research universities, national laboratories, federal agen-
limits cannot be achieved while continuing current uses of cies and private sector innovators.
this fuel. Some uses will be replaced by clean electricity.
Another option is to substitute renewable natural gas or a
synthetic gas made using clean electricity. A well-planned 7. Development of Green Hydrogen and Clean Fuels
transition, with clear legislative and regulatory direction, is The deep decarbonization modeling and the state energy
required to protect the interests of all concerned. strategy identify an important role for clean fuels in every
sector of the energy economy. Green hydrogen is of partic-
ular significance, because it could serve both as a flexible
5. Valuable Role of Comprehensive Pricing Mechanisms use of electricity when generation exceeds demand and as
This strategy includes, in addition to recommendations a feedstock for production of synthetic fuels. This could
targeted at specific energy uses or economic sectors, create new jobs and businesses in the state and help the
the need for broad-based mechanisms to ensure that transportation sector to transition to electricity.
energy prices are not distorted by ignoring the costs of
pollution. In the transportation and industrial sectors, Production of biofuels and renewable natural gas will
the recommended approach is a low carbon fuel standard, support the agriculture and forest sectors and provide
which creates a price premium for fossil fuels and valuable substitutes for fossil natural gas and petroleum
rewards electricity, biofuels and other clean fuels for (see Figure 23). As these examples illustrate, the devel-
their emissions benefits. opment of clean fuels involves complex production and
distribution processes crossing multiple sectors of the
The market recommendations for the electricity sector can economy. There is worldwide interest in these low-carbon
help power generators and utilities identify clean power fuels and therefore ample opportunity to work with other
states and countries in their development.
18 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
KEY ACTIONS
Communities
Climate change will inflict its greatest harm on Adopt state policies to achieve universal broadband access.
highly impacted communities, Tribes, rural areas Examine clean energy policies for equity impacts in development
and low-income households, just as the economic and during implementation.
and health impacts of COVID-19 are now dispropor-
Provide needed funding for communities to participate in the
tionately affecting those same populations. Absent clean energy transformation.
deliberate and committed efforts, the envisioned
Support workers to ensure they have the skills for clean energy jobs
clean energy transformation could easily leave these
and adopt policies to protect workers in transition.
communities worse off.
Transportation
No sector is as important as transportation to Establish specific targets for vehicle sales, transportation demand and
achieving decarbonization, nor as complex in its emissions with accountability measures for meeting those targets.
operation and governance. Adopt a low carbon fuel standard – a comprehensive mechanism to replace
fossil fuels with electricity, hydrogen and clean synthetic or biogenic fuels.
Buildings
There is great potential to reduce and eventually Replace the direct consumption of fossil fuels, primarily natural gas,
eliminate the use of fossil fuels to heat and power with high-efficiency electric heat pumps for space and water heating.
Washington’s residences, offices, warehouses, Strengthen and deepen energy efficiency programs and standards to
shops and other buildings. focus on avoiding and reducing emissions.
Adopt specific targets and accountability for greenhouse gas emissions
in the built environment.
Industry
Policy makers and the private sector would benefit Conduct a thorough assessment of opportunities to transition to
from more information, technology and coordination. low-emission industrial production and collect information about the use
of fossil fuels in industrial processes and the opportunities to increase
efficiency and switch to electricity.
Coordinate with other jurisdictions to adopt consistent policies that
recognize and reward lower emission in-state production.
Enhance research and development programs and state agencies’
data and analytical resources.
Promote development of green hydrogen production, clean fuels
refining and carbon capture.
Electricity
Washington is on its way to eliminating greenhouse Invest in new transmission capacity and renewable generation,
gas emissions from electricity with the implementa- coordinating with other states.
tion of the Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA). Develop distributed energy resources along with smart grid capabilities
Structural changes are needed to ensure the capac- and in consumer equipment to ensure reliability and flexibility.
ity to provide electricity to replace fossil fuels in Strengthen market mechanisms to ensure resource adequacy and
transportation, buildings and industry. efficient electricity markets.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 19
A.
Build an Equitable,
Inclusive,
Resilient Clean
Energy Economy
1. Recognize that No 23
Single Definition of Equity
May be Satisfactory
2. Break from 23
Historical Patterns
and Narratives
3. Ensure Public 24
Participation and
Inclusion of Historically
Marginalized Voices
4. Prioritize Energy 26
Resiliency as Part of
Energy Policy and Planning
5. Embed Equity in the 26
Design of Clean Energy
Policies and Programs
Solar installer on roof.
20 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Shawn O'Connor/Alamy Stock Photo
A. Build an Equitable,
Inclusive, Resilient Clean
Energy Economy
Climate change threatens human health and access to FIGURE 2. RACE AND ETHNICITY
clean air, safe drinking water, nutritious food and shelter. 100.0
The Governor’s Interagency Council on Health Dispari-
80.0
ties’ Environmental Justice Taskforce (EJTF)8 found that
% of Population
vulnerable populations and overburdened communities 60.0
experience disproportionate, cumulative risk from environ-
40.0
mental burdens, including climate change. Low-income
communities are disproportionately more likely to experi- 20.0
ence the environmental and health disparities associated
0.0
with climate change (Figure 2 and 3).9,10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 WA
White Black
The EJTF analysis found that “census tracts with the American Indian or Alaska Native American Asian
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander Two or More Races
lowest environmental health disparities (EHD) rank are Other Race Hispanic or Latino
83.2% white, 0.9% Black, and 6.2% Hispanic or Latino, while
census tracts with the highest EHD rank are 45.6% white,
10.5% Black, and 22.7% Hispanic or Latino. Black Wash-
FIGURE 3. POVERTY BY ENVIRONMENTAL
ingtonians were 10 times more likely to live in the highest HEALTH DISPARITY RANK
ranked census tract than the lowest ranked census tract.
% of Population Under 185% of Federal Poverty Level
40
If race was not associated with EHDs, one would expect
the census tracts to have similar racial proportions.”
(See Figure 2) 30
The EJTF analysis further showed that the poverty rate 20
in the highest EHD ranked census tract (rank 10) is more
than double that of the lowest EHD ranked census tract 10
(rank 1). (See Figure 3). This means that low-income
communities are disproportionately more likely to experi- 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 WA
ence the environmental and health disparities associated
Environmental Health Disparity Ranking
with climate change
Source: Environmental Justice Task Force: Recommendations for Prioritizing EJ in
Washington State Government. Figure 2, page 14; Figure 4, p. 16.
8
“Environmental Justice Task Force,” Governor’s Interagency Council on Health Disparities, accessed November 1, 2020, https://healthequity.wa.gov/TheCouncilsWork/
EnvironmentalJusticeTaskForceInformation.
9
“Environmental Justice Task Force: Recommendations for Prioritizing EJ in Washington State Government,” Fall 2020, https://healthequity.wa.gov/Portals/9/Doc/Publications/Reports/
EJTF%20Report_FINAL.pdf.
10
Joe Casola et al., “An Unfair Share Washington State: Exploring the Disproportionate Risks from Climate Change Facing Washington State Communities” (UW Climate Impacts Group, UW
Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, Front and Centered and Urban@UW, 2018).
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 21
The Clean Energy Transformation Act of 2019 (CETA)
requires that the state’s transition to a 100% renewable
or non-emitting electric grid includes the equitable distribu-
tion of clean energy benefits and reduction of burdens to
communities highly impacted by climate change. The law
provides tax preferences for clean energy projects meeting
protective labor and contracting standards and requires
Commerce and the state’s utilities to assess energy
assistance available to low-income households across
the state.12
Among other factors, under CETA utilities must consider
energy and non-energy benefits for and costs to vulnera-
ble populations and highly impacted communities in their
resource and clean energy planning. They must mitigate
energy burdens and consider the adequacy of energy
assistance programs.
CETA is a foundation for Washington’s equitable, inclusive
and resilient clean energy economy. Implementation of
Environmental disparities include increased air pollu- the 2021 State Energy Strategy should build on this.
tion, water contamination, flooding and wildfires. Health Experience tells us and data confirm that the costs and
disparities include increased rates of asthma, cancer, benefits of our energy future will not be shared equitably
heart attacks, infectious disease, infant mortality and heat without intentional action. Policy makers must embed
stress. Communities at the greatest risk of these hazards equity, resiliency and inclusivity into policy design and
are also more likely to be under 185% of the federal implementation.
poverty level.11
Equitable energy policy design addresses inequities,
Communities and families experiencing environmental while creating environmental and economic opportunities
health disparities and other burdens created by the dispro- for all. It can strengthen the economy by supporting good,
portionate impacts of pollution are less able to adapt to family-sustaining jobs for both urban and rural workers
or recover from climate change impacts. Environmental of all levels of educational attainment. It can mitigate the
equity will be achieved when no single group or commu- hazards of rising sea levels and ocean acidification on
nity faces disadvantages in dealing with the effects of the Washington’s coasts and heat stress and wildfires in the
climate crisis, pollution, environmental hazards or environ- eastern parts of the state. It can also offer the opportunity
mental disasters. to improve democratic participation across state and local
government and create public confidence in government.
Addressing these disparities requires acknowledging the
inequities that have led to them. This transition is under- The state must empower and provide opportunity for
way. As the EJTF’s Recommendations for Prioritizing EJ active participation by all of Washington’s communities
in Washington State Government report details, Washing- and residents. Equitable policy design will allow communi-
ton has become an international leader in environmental ties across the state to take advantage of the clean energy
justice over the last two decades. This focus is reflected in transition’s economic and technological advancements.
the priorities laid out in Governor Inslee's December 2020
Climate Policy Brief and in legislative actions.
11
Charles Lee, “Identifying and Prioritizing Environmentally Impacted and Vulnerable Communities,” https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2019-08/documents/state_ej_webinar_1-
identifying_and_prioritizing_communities_ppt_resources_04.16.19.pdf. p. 45.
12
“Supporting Washington’s Clean Energy Economy and Transitioning to a Clean, Affordable, and Reliable Energy Future,” Pub. L. No. SB 5116 (2019), https://app.leg.wa.gov/
billsummary?BillNumber=5116&Initiative=false&Year=2019.
22 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
1. Recognize that No Single Definition of 2. Break from Historical Patterns
Equity May be Satisfactory and Narratives
Many definitions of equity exist, and no single defini- CETA and the recent law revising Washington’s green-
tion can perfectly capture the expectations and goals of house gas reduction limits14 acknowledge that it is in the
all communities and populations. The EJTF developed public interest to embed equity in our state’s energy policy.
a recommended statewide definition for environmen- Yet historical conversations and solutions in energy policy
tal justice, building on the U.S. Environmental Protection tended to focus on energy price, assuming low costs for
Agency’s definition by adding outcomes for Washington.13 all are equitable and that local participation will occur with-
This definition provides a starting point to identify and out direct and specific outreach and inclusion. Much of
address current injustices and to inform future decisions the conversation on equity by policy makers ignores the
and actions: role of history in shaping the lived experiences of highly
impacted populations. This results in the perpetuation of
The fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people exclusion and inequities.
regardless of race, color, national origin or income with
respect to the development, implementation and enforcement j Equity must consider the price of energy but also
of environmental laws, regulations and policies. This includes energy sufficiency and the health and economic
using an intersectional lens to address disproportionate envi- impacts from energy production. It is not an equitable
ronmental and health impacts by prioritizing highly impacted result if everyone receives low electricity rates and
populations, equitably distributing resources and benefits and gas prices, while highly impacted populations dispro-
eliminating harm. portionately bear the health and economic costs of our
energy system or lack sufficient energy to live healthy,
The equity discussion woven throughout this strategy productive lives.
leans on this definition, in particular its use of “highly
impacted populations” to name the priority communities
j Equity is not in and of itself assured through fair and
whose inequities need to be identified and addressed. open public meetings. Fair and open public comment
Highly impacted populations have connections across sessions do not invite comments from those historically
race and ethnicity, income, housing status, immigration excluded. These voices must be intentionally sought
status and heath disparities. out, respected, empowered and privileged.
j The clean energy transition will not be equitable if
This definition has its limitations. Highly impacted popula-
it benefits only a few or if the costs are not equally
tions are not a monolith and it is important to hold space for
distributed across communities. The institutions
community members and advocates to come forward and
largely responsible for our current inequities share
weigh in on process and policy development. Each commu-
a common responsibility to assist highly impacted
nity, family and individual will have different histories and
populations and ensure their participation in the
needs. There is no one-size-fits-all approach when it comes
clean energy transition.
to equitable policy design. For instance, the inequities that
exist in urban areas may well differ from those of rural
ACTION
areas. Policy needs to recognize and include elements that
address the full spectrum of impacted interests.
j Recognize that historical energy policy has been based
on incomplete understanding of equity and offer more
ACTION holistic, historically informed context for ensuring an
equitable outcome.
j Policy makers, stakeholders and the public must
recognize the different perspectives of highly impacted
populations and the limitations of any single definition
when writing, enacting, implementing and analyzing
energy policy.
13
“Environmental Justice Task Force: Recommendations for Prioritizing EJ in Washington State Government.”
14
Chapter 70A 454.020 RCW.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 23
There are emerging frameworks from statewide environ-
mental justice efforts, such as the newly released report
from Front and Centered, “Accelerating a Just Transition in
Washington State,”17 exploring the intersection of gover-
nance, regenerative economics and community power.
The EJTF developed a detailed set of public participation
guidelines and recommendations. There must be
a commitment to fully fund and develop the enabling
tools and strategies and take a ground-up approach to
the design, adoption and implementation of our state’s
energy policies.
In addition, state and local governments must continue
intentional and thoughtful engagement with Tribal govern-
ments to understand the different ways Tribes approach
their relationship with energy. Steps must be taken to
ensure meaningful outreach and opportunity for partici-
Makah Bay at sunset. This beach is four miles southwest of Neah Bay
on the Makah Reservation at the Northwest tip of Washington State. pation by all of Washington’s Tribes. In addition to direct
catsandotcom/iStock engagement with Tribal staff and leaders, organiza-
tions such as the Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians,
the Association of Washington Tribes and the National
3. Ensure Public Participation and Inclusion of Congress of American Indians are valuable entities with
Historically Marginalized Voices which to collaborate on climate and energy issues.
Public and community participation is important to ensure
energy policy is informed by local knowledge, meets local Among other factors, for Tribes the design and implemen-
needs and is viewed as legitimate by the local commu- tation of Washington’s energy policy must strengthen
nity. Whenever possible, enhanced technical assistance sovereignty. Planning efforts conducted by Tribes can
should be provided to facilitate the involvement of smaller help inform the actions of other governments. Examples
communities, organizations, utilities and companies. The include the Spokane Tribe’s climate action plan,18 the
system must have capacity to consult with and include Makah Tribe’s renewable energy plan19 and climate resil-
communities and community members must have a seat ience plan20 and the Quinault Indian Nation’s climate
at the table in designing programs and selecting projects. resilience plan.21
Examples of successful, robust community outreach A crucial component of ensuring meaningful engagement
in our state, include Puget Sound Sage’s climate equity in the clean energy transition is providing the technical,
community-based participatory research,15 the Climate financial and human resources for community participa-
Equity Task Force and public participation for the King tion. This includes planning, evaluating and implementing
County Strategic Climate Action Plan 2020 Update.16 energy and resilience projects that meet the unique needs
15
“Powering the Transition: Community Priorities for a Renewable and Equitable Future” (Puget Sound Sage, 2020), https://www.pugetsoundsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/
PugetSoundSage_PoweringTransition_June2020-1.pdf.
16
Matt Kuharic, Jamie Stroble, and Lara Whitley Binder, “King County 2020 Strategy Climate Plan” (King County, 2020).
17
“Front and Centered Approach to Equitable Greenhouse Gas Reduction in Washington State” (Front and Centered, 2020), https://frontandcentered.org/
accelerating-just-transition-in-wa-state/.
18
“Sustainable Community Master Plan” (Spokane Tribe of Indians, 2013), https://spokanetribe.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/FINAL_2015_SCMP.pdf.
19
RobertLynette, John Wade, and Larry Coupe, “Comprehensive Renewable Energy Feasibility Study for the Makah Indian Tribe,” March 31, 2005, https://doi.org/10.2172/850362.
20
“Makah Tribe – 2017 Project,” accessed November 1, 2020, https://www.energy.gov/indianenergy/makah-tribe-2017-project.
21
“DOE Assists Quinault Indian Nation with Plans for a Climate-Resilient Community,” Energy.gov, 2016, https://www.energy.gov/indianenergy/articles/
doe-assists-quinault-indian-nation-plans-climate-resilient-community.
24 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
of the state’s diverse communities. Policy makers must interest advocates. Meaningful community outreach and
identify and amend laws and rules, remove barriers and participation was limited due to a compressed sched-
change systems that prevent equitable and just participa- ule and limited in-person opportunities due to the global
tion in policy choices and be comprehensive in determin- pandemic. More robust participation needs to occur in
ing the costs and benefits of implementing those policies. the implementation of the strategy.
The process to develop the recommendations in the ACTION
2021 State Energy Strategy was conducted with stake-
j Incorporate community participation as a part of the
holder and public engagement and input. Most notably, the
design, adoption and implementation of policies flow-
process was informed by consultation with many technical
ing from the state energy strategy across all levels of
experts and a 27-person Advisory Committee designated
government, ensuring the availability of the financial,
by the Legislature and including, among others, legislators,
technical and human resources necessary to meaning-
government officials and representatives of civic organi-
ful involvement by those historically underrepresented.
zations, energy and utility businesses, as well as public
TABLE 1. SEVEN-STEP PROCESS FOR BUILDING EQUITY INTO CLEAN ENERGY POLICIES22
Equitable Policy Design Highlights and Priorities
1. Ensure equitable access to Support participatory processes, direct funding, removal of barriers to autonomy and
economic benefits and opportunity independence and greater access to processes and decisions.
by empowering communities.
2. Ensure universal and equitable Efforts must be expanded to develop affordable, quality broadband, including in
access to affordable remote rural and under-resourced areas.
service options.
3. Center program design on Reduce home energy and transportation costs for highly impacted populations by focusing
reduction of energy cost burdens. on cost burden as a metric in planning.
4. Incorporate health disparity metrics Improve health and safety, safeguard against health and safety risks and improve access to
into energy planning. the physical, service and social conditions linked to health and well-being by operationalizing
a health disparity metric in energy planning.23
5. Increase resilience and energy Support the efforts of communities especially prone to instability from climate change and
sovereignty for Tribes and energy other natural disasters, such as communities located in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and
independence for vulnerable wildfire prone areas and communities impacted by fossil fuels.24
communities.
6. Address procedural inequities Perhaps the most significant combined equity-and-energy gains can be made through
in program design and prioritize planning. The state has an opportunity to help guide clean and equitable development of
equitable development. programs and funding that support development.
7. Address nexus issues of affordable Work with housing policy experts to address unhoused and displaced communities
housing, livable communities and through energy policy design, especially focusing on cost burdens.
displacement in energy policy.
Source: Washington State Department of Commerce
22
Kuharic, Stroble, and Binder, “King County 2020 Strategy Climate Plan.” p. 173.
23
“How Do Neighborhood Conditions Shape Health? An Excerpt from Making the Case for Linking Community Development and Health” (Center on Social Disparities in Health, Build Healthy
Places Network, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, 2015), https://www.buildhealthyplaces.org/content/uploads/2015/09/How-Do-Neighborhood-Conditions-Shape-Health.pdf.
24
“Resilient Washington Subcabinet Report” (Washington Military Department’s Emergency Management Division, 2017), https://mil.wa.gov/asset/5ba420648fb16.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 25
4. Prioritize Energy Resiliency as Part of 5. Embed Equity in the Design of Clean Energy
Energy Policy and Planning Policies and Programs
Climate change exacerbates and worsens the impacts Figure 5 and Table 1 outline a seven-step process for
of natural disasters: sea-level rise, floods, heat waves, building equity into clean energy policies and programs.
extreme weather, increased wildfires and infectious The applicability of each step to any one particular
diseases. Planning for these events goes hand-in-hand energy policy or program may vary. However, it is useful
with clean energy planning. Both involve the siting and to evaluate every clean energy policy and program using
construction of new transportation and energy infrastruc- these metrics to ensure equitable policy and program-
ture and investments in the social infrastructure and matic design.
social safety net.
Another way to ensure that a policy or program is equita-
These investments make public and community institu- bly designed is to evaluate it by the three dimensions of
tions resilient. However, there is always the temptation to energy and environmental justice: 1) structural equity; 2)
wait until a crisis happens before doing anything about it. procedural equity; and 3) distributional equity as described
Preparation should be by design, not in response to disas- in Figure 4.25 These three dimensions are foundational to
ter. Resiliency must be prioritized as part of upfront energy environmental justice work and help focus policy design
planning. Communities must be sufficiently resourced to on equitable outcomes for communities. Each dimension
design, plan, prepare and implement resiliency measures. requires distinct strategies to be achieved.
ACTION ACTION
j Incorporate energy resiliency in policy design and j Governments need to evaluate proposed and existing
energy planning. policies using a framework for equitable policy design
and ensuring meaningful engagement in policy design
and implementation by those affected. Local commu-
Energy policy must be informed by local
nities and advocacy organizations in turn need to hold
knowledge, meet local needs and be accepted policy makers and government officials accountable
as legitimate by local communities. when policies fail to meet these criteria.
FIGURE 4. THREE DIMENSIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE WORK
j Create processes that are transparent, fair and inclusive in developing and implementing any
PROCEDURAL program, plan or policy
j Ensure that all people are treated openly and fairly
j Increase the civic engagement opportunities of communities that are disproportionately
impacted by climate change
j Fairly distribute resources, benefits and burdens
DISTRIBUTIONAL j Prioritize resources for communities that experience the greatest inequities, disproportionate
impacts and have the greatest unmet needs
j Make a commitment to correct past harms and prevent future unintended consequences
STRUCTURAL j Address the underlying structural and institutional systems that are the root causes of
social and racial inequities
25
Tina Yuen et al., “Guide to Equitable, Community-Driven Climate Preparedness Planning” (Urban Sustainability Directors Network, RAIM + Associates, May 2017), https://www.usdn.org/
uploads/cms/documents/usdn_guide_to_equitable_community-driven_climate_preparedness-_high_res.pdf.
26 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
FIGURE 5. BUILD AN EQUITABLE AND INCLUSIVE CLEAN ECONOMY
Empower
Communities
Address Nexus of
Affordable Housing, Ensure Affordable
Livable Communities, Remote Service
and Displacement
EQUITABLE ACCESS
to clean energy economic
Address Procedural benefits and opportunity.
Inequity and Prioritize Reduce Energy
Equitable Cost Burdens
Development
Increase Resilience
and Energy Incorporate Health
Sovereignty for Tribes Disparity Metrics
and Vulnerable
Communities
Source: Washington State Department of Commerce
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 27
B.
Achieve the State’s
Greenhouse Gas
Emission’s Limits
1. Washington 29
State Emissions
2. Pathways to 32
Decarbonization
3. Modeling Implications 45
for Washington's
Energy Policy
Transmission tower, Bonneville Lock and Dam.
28 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Clean Energy Transition Institute
B. Achieve the
State’s Greenhouse Gas
Emission’s Limits
1. Washington State Emissions
Washington’s residents and businesses were responsi- greenhouse gas emissions in 2018 were from the
ble for 98.9 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emis- electricity sector. Buildings and industry comprised
sions in 2018, the year of the most recent state emissions nearly a quarter of emissions, and non-energy/non-CO2
inventory. Nearly half (45%) of the emissions were from emissions were approximately 15%. (See Figure 6.)
transportation. The state’s transportation emissions
approximate the U.S. average per capita: compared to Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions have grown
other states, Washingtonians drive slightly less per capita26 by roughly 10% since 1990, the baseline year from which
but consume more fuel for freight, air and ship travel. to calculate the state’s emissions limits. Consequently,
the 2030 emissions target of a 45% reduction relative to
The reason transportation is dominant in Washington’s 1990 translates to a 53% reduction relative to emissions
greenhouse gas emissions profile is due to the state’s rela- in 2018. (See Figure 8.)
tively clean electricity supply. Only 16% of Washington’s
FIGURE 6. WASHINGTON STATE 2018 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY BY SECTOR
100
90 Electricity
80
70
Emissions CO2e (MMT)
60 Transportation Energy and
Industry CO2
50
40
Residential/
30 Commercial/
Industrial (RCI)
20
Industrial CO2
10
Non-CO2
0
Source: Washington State Department of Ecology Greenhouse Gas Inventory.
26
U.S. VMT Per Capita By State, 1981-2017,” 2019, https://www.enotrans.org/eno-resources/u-s-vmt-per-capita-by-state-1981-2017/.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 29
The state’s 2018 emissions result from energy consump- Washington's emissions have grown
tion as depicted in Figure 7 below, which shows an esti- roughly 10% since 1990, the baseline year
mate of Washington’s energy consumption in 2018 using
from which reductions are calculated.
Energy Information Agency data.27
FIGURE 7. ESTIMATED WASHINGTON ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN 2018
Source: LLNL June, 2020. Data is based on DOE/EIA SEDS (2019). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the Department of Energy, under whose auspices the work was performed.
Distributed electricity represents only retail electricity sales and does not include self-generation. EIA reports consumption of renewable resources i.e., hydro, wind, geothermal and solar) for
electricity in BTU-equivalent values by assuming a typical fossil fuel plant heat rate. The efficiency of electricity production is calculated as the total retail electricity delivered divided by the
primary energy input into electricity generation. End use efficiency is the estimated as 65% for the residential sector, 65% for the commercial sector, 49% for the industrial sector, and 21% for
the transportation sector. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent Rounding. LLNL-MI-410527.
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/energy
27
“Estimated Washington Energy Consumption in 2018,” Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, accessed December 1, 2020, https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/charts/
Energy/Energy_2018_United-States_WA.png.
30 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
1.1. Pathway to Zero Net Emissions in 2050 This strategy focuses on the CO2 emissions that result
The objectives of the 2021 State Energy Strategy are from energy use, but the statewide emissions limits cover
directly linked to the revised greenhouse gas emissions all types of greenhouse gas emissions, including non-CO2
reductions limits established by the Legislature in 2020. emissions, such as methane from agriculture, waste, and
Updating limits set in 2008, the Legislature established natural gas leakage, and perfluorocarbons in aluminum
ambitious economy-wide goals: a 95% reduction production. While reductions in non-CO2 emissions are
below 1990 levels by 2050, with interim economy-wide possible, the solutions are highly uncertain.
emissions limits of 45% below 1990 levels by 2030
and 70% below 1990 levels by 2040. For the purpose of modeling for this strategy, we assume
that all of the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in 2050
In addition, the state committed to net zero emissions will be offset by biological or geological sequestration,
by 2050, which means that the residual 5% (or 5 MMTCO2 thereby achieving the net zero limit of state law. This
e) of emissions in 2050 will need to be balanced by an means that, in 2050, energy and industrial CO2 emissions
equivalent amount of biological or geological emissions (referred to as energy emissions in the rest of this section)
removal from the atmosphere. These limits are estab- must be zero. This allows for the use of carbon-neutral
lished in statute and are based on scientific assessment
28
fuels, including zero net emissions biofuels and synthetic
of the pace of emissions decline needed globally to fuels that capture carbon from the atmosphere and
keep warming to within 1.5 degrees Celsius above release it again. Figure 8 shows the trajectory of limits to
pre-industrial levels. be achieved by 2050 based on Washington State’s 2018
greenhouse gas emissions.
FIGURE 8. WASHINGTON STATE 2030-2050 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION LIMITS
(Assumes residual 5% of 1990 emissions remaining in 2050 will be offset by biological or geological sequestration)
100
1990 Levels: 8.5% reduction
Electricity from 2018
80
Emissions CO2e (MMT)
60
45% below 1990 levels
Transportation
40
70% below
RCI 1990 levels
20
Industrial Process CO2 95% below 1990 levels
Source: Washington State Department of Ecology and
Non- CO2 and net zero
Washington State.29
0
Appendix A –Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Technical
2018 2020 2030 2040 2050 Report, December 11, 2020 (p. 15).
28
Chapter 70A.45.020 RCW.
29
Chapter 70A.45.020 RCW.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 31
ments to energy-using technologies in buildings, transpor-
tation and industry and displacing fossil fuel use, primarily
in transportation, with clean fuels.
The challenge for Washington will be implementing a
decarbonization strategy integrated across all sectors of
the economy that reduces energy-related greenhouse gas
emissions in half by 10 years.
2. Pathways to Decarbonization
To examine potential paths to meet the 2030 and 2050
emissions limits, the Department of Commerce commis-
sioned deep decarbonization pathways modeling. This
effort analyzed alternative decarbonization scenarios
within a modeling framework to inform the selection of
policies and actions to decarbonize the state’s energy
sector over the coming decades.
Evolved Energy Research conducted this analysis using
the EnergyPATHWAYS and RIO modeling suite. Earlier
Beakers with algae used to create biofuels. liloh versions of these models supported decarbonization
modeling for the region and the state.30, 31 The modeling for
the state energy strategy incorporates current technology
1.2. Washington’s 2030 Emissions Challenge: and economic data; the state’s clean electricity and emis-
Cutting Energy Emissions in Half sions limits; state and regional assumptions developed in
Meeting the state’s emission reduction limit for 2030 is at consultation with stakeholders; and a set of scenarios that
least as challenging as reaching the deeper 2050 limit and capture the effect of potential strategies. The full techni-
will require all sectors of the economy to reduce emissions cal report for the 2021 State Energy Strategy deep decar-
at a rapid pace. bonization modeling can be found in Appendix A. In this
section, we address the modeling’s key conclusions.
Translated proportionately to the energy emissions, the
2030 limit is equivalent to removing 45 million tons of the
85 million tons of CO2 emitted from energy in 2018. The 2.1. Decarbonization Scenarios
state starts from a 69% clean electricity grid that contrib- The deep decarbonization modeling explores one
uted 16 million tons of CO2 in 2018. If all electricity emis- Reference Scenario and five decarbonization scenarios
sions were removed, Washington’s 2018 emissions would described in Table 2. The results tease out the key oppor-
have to drop a further 29 million tons to meet the 2030 tunities and challenges in decarbonizing all sectors of
state limit. the energy economy at the pace indicated by the state’s
emissions limits. All five decarbonization scenarios
Additional emission reductions will need to come from modeled meet those limits.
measures other than decarbonizing electricity. These
measures include electrification and efficiency improve-
30
“Deep Decarbonization,” accessed November 2, 2020, https://www.governor.wa.gov/issues/issues/energy-environment/deep-decarbonization.
31
Northwest Deep Decarbonization Pathways Study”, 2019, accessed December 1, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/y42w3a6v.
32 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
TABLE 2. REFERENCE AND FIVE DECARBONIZATION SCENARIOS ANALYZED
Scenario Summary Key Questions Policy Mandates
Reference Business as usual Assumes no emissions target and that current No constraints on
policy is implemented emissions
Electrification Investigates a rapid shift What if energy systems achieve aggressive
to electrified end uses electrification and aggressive efficiency, and relatively
unconstrained in-state and out-of-state technology
were available?
Transport Fuels Investigates reaching What alternative investments are needed
decarbonization targets when larger quantities of primary fuels remain
with reduced transporta- in the economy?
tion electrification
Gas in Buildings Investigates reaching What is the difference in the cost of decarbonization if
decarbonization targets gas appliances are retained in buildings?
Meets 2050 net
by retaining gas use
zero emissions
in buildings
target
Constrained Investigates a future What alternative investments in in-state resources
Resources that limits potential for would Washington make if transmission expansion is
transmission expansion limited due to siting/permitting challenges?
into Washington
Behavior Changes Investigates how lower What if policy-driven or natural behavior changes
service demands could (i.e., more telecommuting post COVID-19) lower
impact decarbonization service demands?
Source: Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Report, December 11, 2020 (p. 21).
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 33
In each decarbonization scenario, the model finds the ments and overall costs of decarbonizing the economy in
lowest cost way of supplying energy to meet the 2030 and each scenario inform the policy choices in the 2021 State
2050 emissions limits. Technology costs are based on Energy Strategy.
the best publicly available projections. Actions to reduce
emissions cross the sectors of the economy. Comparing The Electrification Scenario explores the impacts of a rapid
the scenarios provides useful information about the best shift to electrified end uses. The Transport Fuels Scenario
strategies for decarbonization, targeting the lowest cost models a slower transition to electrification in transpor-
actions first. Projected Reference Scenario emissions from tation, either due to policy driving a more gradual shift, or
energy use and the energy emissions limits for the decar- because of slower than expected electric vehicle adoption.
bonization scenarios are shown in Figure 9.
The Gas in Buildings Scenario models a future where
The Reference Scenario reflects future developments demand for gas in the built environment, such as for
consistent with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Annual heating and cooking, remains through 2050. Gas supplied
Energy Outlook’s Reference Scenario, as well as current through the pipeline can include a blend of different
policy in the region. For example, the state’s 100% types of gas. This blend is referred to as “pipeline gas”
clean electricity law (CETA) is reflected in the Reference throughout the remainder of the strategy. Pipeline gas
Scenario. Even with the elimination of emissions from can be partially or even fully decarbonized by replac-
electricity under CETA, Washington’s overall emissions do ing fossil gas with cleaner alternatives such as biogas,
not decrease in the Reference Case because without new synthetic gas or hydrogen.
policies fossil fuel consumption will increase as fast as
The Constrained Resources Scenario models the impact if
the electricity sector phases out fossil fuels.
Washington were unable to expand transmission interties
The decarbonization scenarios investigate different to other states. Finally, the Behavior Change Scenario eval-
pathways toward reaching the state’s greenhouse gas uates the impact of consumer choices to decrease their
emission limits, with each scenario reflecting different energy consumption by driving less and reducing their
policy priorities and/or uncertainties in future outcomes. demand for energy services in buildings.32
Comparisons between and among the different invest-
FIGURE 9. WASHINGTON STATE TRAJECTORY TO 2050, BY ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN
EACH SECTOR
90
80
70
Total Emissions (MMT)
45% below 1990 levels
60 Transportation
Energy Decarbonization Limits
50
Transportation 40 MMT 70% below
40 RCI 1990 levels
30 Industrial 22.3 MMT
20
95% below 1990 levels
10 Residential and net zero
Commercial # 0 MMT
0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: Appendix A – Washington State Energy Decarbonization Modeling 2020, Evolved Energy Research (p.17).
32
For the assumptions behind all six scenarios, please see Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Modeling Technical Report, December 11, 2020.
Appendix B – Data accompanying Deep Decarbonization Modeling Technical Report, December 11, 2020.
34 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
2.2. Changes in Energy Demand However, improvements in efficiency cannot happen over-
In all five decarbonization scenarios, electrification and night. Retiring existing equipment — a late model gasoline
efficiency drive lower total final energy demand than in vehicle for example — is expensive. Replacing equipment
the Reference Scenario, where energy demand in 2050 on that scale would be infeasible all at once. Therefore,
increases by 6% relative to 2023, the year we assume the we assume, conservatively, that customers invest in more
economy has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic efficient equipment only at the end of the useful life of their
(see Figure 10). In all scenarios other than Behavior existing equipment, a time when they would have bought
Change, customers have the same demand for energy new equipment anyway. The total stocks of equipment
services. For example, they heat their homes to the same in homes, businesses and on the road is of varying age
temperature and drive the same number of miles. at any given time. It takes time to roll over total stocks of
equipment to more efficient and cleaner versions.
Final energy demand varies because of differences in
the energy efficiency of the different types of equipment Using energy more efficiently through electrification and
customers can use to provide these services. For example, other measures reduces overall demand and the invest-
a battery electric vehicle requires less energy per mile than ment needed in energy supply infrastructure and fuels.
an internal combustion engine fueled by gasoline. The costs of the new equipment necessary to lower final
FIGURE 10. FINAL ENERGY DEMAND 2020-2050
COVID-19: 10% drop Electrification: 90% growth in Transport Fuels: Buildings: Higher Behavior: Fewer
in demand in 2020 electricity sector over 2020 Demand for fuels demand for gas due to energy services
due to COVID impact levels, displacing fuels remains in 2050 less electrification drive demand lower
Reference Electrification Transport Fuels Gas in Buildings Behavior Change
1,600
Final Energy Demand (TBtu)
1,400
28% 23% 24% 32%
1,200
1,000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
2020 2030 2040 20502020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Diesel Fuel Jet Fuel Electricity Other Hydrogen
Gasoline Fuel Pipeline Gas Steam Biomass Residual Fuel Oil
Diesel Fuel Jet Fuel Electricity Other Hydrogen
Gasoline Fuel Pipeline Gas Steam Biomass Residual Fuel Oil
Source: Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Report, December 11, 2020 (p. 28).
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 35
energy demand is likely greater than the cost of less This puts an even finer point on the need to encourage
efficient equipment. However, reducing supply infrastruc- less energy use wherever possible.
ture and fuel investments saves money. How a scenario
compares in total cost to any other depends on its relative
demand- and supply-side costs. Differences in the pace 2.3. Modeling the Supply Side
of electrifying transportation accounts for the largest The previous section presents the demands for energy
differences in demand across all the scenarios.33 in Washington with different assumptions about the types
of equipment customers would adopt on the demand side.
In the Electrification Scenario, total energy demand The next step of the modeling determined the least-cost
drops 28%. Electricity demand grows 90% over 2020 way of providing that energy through investments in and
levels by 2050, displacing fossil fuels in buildings operations of Washington’s energy supply. This includes
and transportation through assumptions that drive the infrastructure to produce, store and transport fuels
replacement of existing equipment with electrified and electricity.
appliances and vehicles at the end of their useful lives.
The Constrained Resources Scenario shares the same Section 1.2 introduced the challenge of reducing emis-
final energy demand as the Electrification Scenario sions by 2030. The relatively small amount of emissions
and is therefore not shown in Figure 10. from electricity in Washington means that if we were to
decarbonize all electricity production, additional emissions
Total energy demand drops the least in the Transport reductions in other forms of energy use would still be
Fuels Scenario (23%). Demand for fuels is still significant needed. By 2030, the system will look different, depending
in 2050 because greater numbers of internal combustion on the scenario, as described in the previous section.
engines will remain on the roads. These vehicles have
lower energy efficiency than electric alternatives. Adopting electrified energy uses and more efficient
equipment means electricity demand will increase as a
The Gas in Buildings Scenario sees a 24% drop in total share of the total demand, but overall total energy demand
energy demand by 2050. In contrast to the Electrification will be less. Due to the limits on how fast equipment can
Scenario, customers replace gas-consuming appliances be replaced with these more efficient options, reaching
with more efficient modern gas appliances. the target also requires reducing emissions by using clean
fuels. Clean fuels in this section refers to fuels produced
The Behavior Change Scenario achieves the greatest
from biogenic feedstocks (biofuels) and fuels derived from
drop in demand for energy (32%) with less use of the
hydrogen production through electrolysis (synthetic fuels),
services that energy provides in transport and buildings.
including hydrogen itself.
This scenario illustrates the benefits if policy makers act
to encourage driving cars less and using fewer energy This section explores these two top-line strategies in
services in buildings. As we will see, achieving the levels of energy supply:
electrification required to hit the 2030 emission reduction
1. Building a clean electricity sector to supply
limit presents several technical and economic challenges.
expanding electric loads
2. Decarbonizing fuels to meet the short-term
Greater interconnection among the
emission limits
11 Western states is a key part of all
scenarios and points to the importance 2.3.1. Building a Clean Electricity Sector to Supply
of expanded regional coordination Expanding Electric Loads
and transmission to lower overall Total demand for electricity nearly doubles by 2050 in
the Electrification Scenario and expands significantly in
decarbonization costs.
the other scenarios. Supplying this electricity from clean
33
See Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Modeling Technical Report, p. 29
36 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
electricity sources is cheaper than other alternatives, such
as decarbonizing fuels. Washington’s electricity supply is
already 69% clean because of the state’s significant hydro
resource, however we assume there is no opportunity to
expand hydroelectricity supply in the future, so wind and
solar resources provide the additional energy needed.
In 2020, Washington is a net exporter of energy. As renew-
able generation fills the state’s additional energy needs,
Washington becomes a net importer, bringing in 43% of its
electricity by 2050 in the Electrification Scenario, 36% of
which comes from Montana and Wyoming wind. To under-
stand where imports into Washington derive from through-
out the West, please see page 39 of the technical report in
Appendix A. The lower relative cost of these out-of-state
resources versus in-state opportunities limits the growth
of new renewable capacity in state until 2040 when Wash-
ington starts to build solar and offshore wind.34
Quantities of resources built in Washington are rela-
tively similar across the decarbonization scenarios with
the exception of the Constrained Resources Scenario.
By constraining transmission expansion into Wash-
ington, more clean electricity must come from in-state
resources. Prior to 2040, electricity needs are largely
met with increased imports of renewable energy from
Wind turbines seen from Steptoe Butte State Park, WA.
other states as in the other decarbonization scenarios.
However, in 2040 to 2050, significantly more in-state
solar and offshore wind are built as the capacity to import
more from elsewhere is exhausted. In-state solar capac- regional coordination and transmission to lower overall
ity in 2050 is 18 GW versus 12 GW in the Electrification decarbonization costs. Six GW of new transmission (the
Scenario, and offshore wind capacity is 10 GW versus maximum permitted in the model) are added between
4 GW in the Electrification Scenario.35
Montana and Washington and 5 GW between Idaho and
Washington by 2050.36
In all decarbonization scenarios, wind is the dominant
form of energy in the Western U.S. by 2050, followed by Part of the increase in electric loads in all scenarios
solar. This drives expansion of transmission across the comes from new flexible loads, including from electrolysis
West to take advantage of both renewable and geographic and electric boilers. Synthetic fuels derived from hydro-
resource diversity. Northwest wind and Southwest solar gen, such as clean diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, can be
are relatively complementary resources, and energy cheaply stored. This allows electrolysis loads to ramp up
flows across the West increase to take advantage of this during periods of plentiful renewable energy production
diversity to lower total system costs. Greater intercon- and reduce or go offline during times of lower renewable
nection among the 11 Western states is a key part of output. This novel, large flexible load helps balance the
all scenarios and points to the importance of expanded grid and shore up reliability.
34
Ibid, p. 29.
35
Ibid, p. 36.
36
Ibid, p. 40.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 37
2.3.2. Decarbonizing Fuels to Meeting the Emissions Limits The need for clean liquid fuels to meet the 2030 emissions
Another critical finding is the importance of clean fuels to limits is driven in part by restrictions on the rate at which
achieving the 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas reduction the transportation fleet can be converted to battery electric
limits. In all decarbonization scenarios, liquid fuels are not or hydrogen vehicles and the rate that end uses in build-
eliminated, but they are fully decarbonized by 2050 with ings can be electrified. The 2030 limit requires significant
a combination of synthetic fuels, biofuels and hydrogen. expansion of the clean fuels industry to reduce emissions
These fuels are produced using renewable electricity, from transportation. Figure 11 shows how fossil fuels are
biomass or other biogenic feedstocks and, in some cases, decarbonized in three of the decarbonization scenarios
carbon captured from industrial processes. Clean fuels compared to the Reference Scenario.
substitute for fossil-based gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
FIGURE 11. CLEAN FUELS ARE IMPORTANT TO REACH DECARBONIZATION LIMITS
Fuels (TBtu)
Run Name Pipeline Gas Liquid Fuels Hydrogen
600
Electrification TBtu 400
200
600
Transport
Fuels TBtu 400
200
600
Gas in
Buildings TBtu 400
200
600
Reference TBtu 400
200
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Hydrogen Synthetic Fuels Biofuels Fossil Fuels
Source: Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Report, December 11, 2020 (p. 42).
H2 Synthetic Fuels Biofuels Fossil
38 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
2.4. Costs and Benefits of Decarbonization Additional equipment costs for decarbonization are
Energy costs include investments in supply-side largely offset by savings from the avoided purchase of
equipment, such as wind and gas turbines, transmission fossil fuels. The decarbonization costs are the net differ-
and clean fuels production infrastructure, and operating ence in costs between the decarbonization scenarios and
costs of the equipment, such as operations and mainte- the Reference Scenario. There are additional costs and
nance and fuel. In the decarbonization scenarios, energy benefits not included in this calculation — the analysis
costs also include investments in more efficient or considers only direct infrastructure and operating costs
electrified demand-side equipment, such as electric and does not include other categories, such as growth
vehicles and heat pumps. in jobs. Health benefits to Washington residents from
improved air quality are also not included in these totals.
The costs of decarbonization include investments in
these categories that are greater than in the Reference Annual energy spending37 as a percentage of GDP
Scenario. For example, expanding the electricity sector averaged over the 30-year period from 2020 to 2050 is
with rapid electrification of end uses requires more only slightly higher than the Reference Scenario for the
investment than in the Reference Scenario, where loads decarbonization scenarios as Figure 12 shows. Rapid
stay relatively consistent. electrification and efficiency measures, transmission
expansion and access to out-of-state resources achieve
the lowest costs in the Electrification Scenario.
FIGURE 12. AVERAGE ANNUAL ENERGY EXPENDITURE (%GDP/YR)
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
%GDP/yr
2.5%
2.0% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9%
3.9%
3.6%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Reference Electrification Transport Gas in Constrained
Fuels Buildings Resources
Source: Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Report, December 11, 2020 (p. 52).
37
Annual energy spending is reported in this section as the levelized investment in infrastructure plus operating costs, such as for fuels and operations and maintenance.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 39
The Transport Fuels Scenario, where fewer vehicles are Even in the Constrained Resources Scenario, Washing-
electrified or transition to hydrogen, requires more clean ton relies on large quantities of imported energy. Based
fuels, which drives higher costs. But the slower transition on forecasted prices additional investments in offshore
to EVs means fewer demand-side equipment costs. Not wind in 2045 and 2050 are reasonably competitive against
pursuing building electrification in the Gas in Buildings out-of-state onshore wind and the investment in transmis-
Scenario avoids investments in electricity distribution but sion to access it.
relies on higher consumption of more costly clean fuels.
Leaving gas in buildings in the short term will require even
more clean fuel investment in the future. 2.4.1. Decarbonization Spending across the Scenarios
Net direct economic benefits exceed costs by the 2040s
The Constrained Resources Scenario yields cost results relative to the Reference Scenario, based on the assumed
that are approximately the same as the Electrification resource prices used in the model. Decarbonization
Scenario, albeit with different investments in different requires a significant investment between 2020 and 2030
locations. The Electrification Scenario invests in new to reach the stringent 2030 emissions reductions target,
transmission capacity to access high-quality wind but energy spending in the lowest cost Electrification
and solar resources in other states. The Constrained Scenario drops below the Reference Scenario in the
Resources Scenario invests less in transmission 2040s (Figure 13).
but spends more to build renewable resources in
and off-shore from Washington.
FIGURE 13. TOTAL LEVELIZED ENERGY SYSTEM COST AS A PERCENTAGE OF
WASHINGTON GDP RELATIVE TO HISTORICAL
10%
9%
8% Historical
7%
6%
% of GDP
5% Electrification
4%
3% Reference
2%
1%
0%
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Source: Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Report, December 11, 2020 (p. 55).
40 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Demand for clean fuels drives cost increases in the bonizing the economy acts as a hedge against future fuel
short term, but the projected decrease in decarbonization price volatility by reducing the fraction of energy spending
technology costs results in savings over the Reference on fossil fuel imports and therefore reducing exposure.
Scenario in 2050 as seen in Figure 14. Decarbonization
costs are projected to remain below the historical average
Clean fuels are the key to achieving the 2030
of energy spending.
and 2050 greenhouse gas reduction limits.
The economy is forecasted to grow at a faster rate than The rate at which vehicles can be converted
energy consumption between 2020 and 2050 lower-
to battery electric and building energy usage
ing energy costs as a share of total GDP. Price spikes in
can be electrified is the critical factor.
energy spending in the last two decades are caused by
fuel price volatility and the 2008-2009 recession. Decar-
FIGURE 14. COST COMPONENTS OF DECARBONIZING RELATIVE TO
REFERENCE SCENARIO
Cost increases in 2030 Projected technology cost Transport Fuels and Gas in Constrained Resources: Greater
driven by demand for decreases by 2050 result in net Buildings: greater demand for spend on renewables but reduced
clean fuels savings over reference case synthetic fuels and biofuels investment in new transmission
Electrification Transport Fuels Gas in Buildings Constrained Resources
2.0%
Annual Net Cost Relative to
1.5%
1.1%
0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
1.0%
0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
0.5% 0.5%
0.2%
Reference Scenario (%GDP/yr)
0.2% 0.2%
0.0% 0.2% 0.1%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
-0.1% -0.1%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Direct Air Capture Gas Power Plants Liquid Fuel Delivery Demand Side Equipment
Electricity Electricity
Direct Air Capture StorageGrid Other Nuclear Power Plants
Gas Pipeline GasDemand
PipelineSide Equipment Synthetic Fuels
Electricity Storage Gas Power Plants Renewable Electricity Gen.. Natural Gas Synthetic Fuels
Biofuels Biofuels Nuclear Power Plants Other
Fuel Delivery to End Uses Liquid Fossil Fuels Natural Gas
Electricity Grid Renewables Liquid Fossil Fuels
Source: Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Report, December 11, 2020 (p. 54).
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 41
Relative to the Electrification Scenario, spending in the On a per capita basis, by 2050 the Electrification Scenario
other decarbonization scenarios is higher, as shown in would save the average energy customer in Washing-
Figure 15. Retaining fuel use in transportation or in build- ton approximately $132 per year, and the Constrained
ings requires greater investment in clean fuel production, Resources would save about $83 per year, as seen in
which is more costly than the electrification of end uses Figure 15, based on forecasted technology costs and
in the Electrification Scenario. Restricting the expansion fuel prices.
of Washington’s interties in the Constrained Resources
Scenario is also more expensive. The costs reported above include investments in energy
demand and supply-side equipment, fuels and other
The Behavior Change Scenario points to significant operating costs. Beyond these direct costs, Washington
savings with actions that incentivize people to use less will experience benefits from decarbonization, including
energy. Behavior changes might include choosing housing reduced impacts from the changing climate if the rest of
with a shorter commute distance or operating a building at the world also decarbonizes and improved air quality.39
a lower thermostat setting. However, a lack of information Displacing fossil power generation with renewables and
about the costs to achieve changes in behavior hampers electrifying the vehicle fleet both contribute to cleaner air
full understanding of the savings. It is recommended that for Washingtonians.
the state further study options for cost-effective behavioral
measures that would decrease demand for energy.38
FIGURE 15. CHANGE IN AVERAGE SPENDING PER PERSON IN THE ELECTRIFICATION
SCENARIO (2050)
$1,500
$1,000 $897 Net savings amounts to
Annual Spending Relative to Reference Scenario
$132 per year
$500 $350
$239
$20
0
-$132
-$206
-$500
-$1,000
-$1,500 -$1,432
-$2,000
Electricity Clean Equipment Other Natural Liquid Net
Fuels and Vehicles Gas Fuels Change
Source: Appendix E – Economic Impacts of Decarbonization Modeling, December 31, 2020 (p. 16).
38
Ibid, p. 57.
39
Global Co-Benefits of Decarbonisation” (University of Cambridge, Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research), accessed November 30, 2020, https://www.4cmr.group.cam.ac.uk/
filecab/global-co-benefits.pdf.
42 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Figure 16 summarizes the air quality improvements asso-
ciated with decarbonization from 2020 compared to 2050,
which include elimination of mercury emissions and over
90% reductions in nitrogen (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2)
emissions from power generation, as well as significant
reductions in particulate matter and NOx emissions from
transportation.
Figure 17 shows how decarbonization would greatly
improve Washington’s air quality.
Significant savings in both emissions
and costs could occur if people were
incentivized to use less energy.
EV charging station. stanvpetersen
FIGURE 16. SUMMARY OF WASHINGTON AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS FROM
DECARBONIZATION
Sector Source Pollutant Emissions in 2020 Emissions in 2050 Percent Change
Power Mercury 21.1 0.0 -100.0%
Generation (kilograms)
Power NOx40 8.959 0.739 -91.8%
Generation (metric tons)
Power SO241 8.985 0.024 -99.7%
Generation (metric tons)
Transportation PM 2.542 0.635 0.354 -44.2%
(metric tons)
Transportation NOx 21.839 10.165 -53.5%
(metric tons)
Source: Appendix E – Economic Impacts of Decarbonization Modeling, December 31, 2020 (p. 17).
40
Various nitrogen oxides, which have negative respiratory and cardiovascular effects.
41
Sulfur dioxide, which has negative respiratory effects and is a component of acid rain.
42
Particulate matter generally smaller than 2.5 micrometers, which can cause lung and cardiovascular disease.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 43
FIGURE 17. DECARBONIZATION GREATLY IMPROVES WASHINGTON’S AIR QUALITY
25
21.8
21.1
20
Emissions
15 Eliminated or nearly eliminated by 2050 54% reduction
10.2
10 9.0 9.0
5
0.7 0.6 0.4
0.0 0.0
0
Mercury NOx in power SO2 in power PM 2.5 in NOx in
in power generation generation transportation transportation
generation (kg) (metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons)
2020 2050
Source: Appendix E – Economic Impacts of Decarbonization Modeling, December 31, 2020 (p. 18).
44 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy EV in the mountains. Jessica Plumb
2.4.2. Addressing Uncertainties Accelerating development of a clean fuels
The costs and benefits presented here are subject to the industry in the next 10 years is critical to
uncertainties inherent in future technology price forecasts,
meeting Washington’s 2030 limits.
fuel price forecasts, technology availability and many other
factors. Uncertainty increases further into the future and
the cost of decarbonization is more sensitive to some
costs than others. Washington’s 2030 limits. In the Electrification Scenario,
by 2030 a third of all liquid fuels in Washington are from
For example, electric vehicle forecasts have one of the clean sources, either bio or synthetic replacements for
largest impacts on decarbonization costs. Vehicles are the conventional fossil fuels.
largest energy-consuming infrastructure purchase that
many customers and businesses make. Small changes in In the longer run, as more of the vehicle fleet electrifies,
vehicle cost projections have large impacts on forecasted clean fuels may play a diminished role in decarbonization
decarbonization costs. A 10% change in electric vehicle in Washington but will remain key to decarbonizing air
prices impacts decarbonization costs by 0.25% of GDP in travel and other applications where electrification is
2030 and 0.2% of GDP in 2050. In recent years, forecasts more challenging.
for electric vehicle costs have dropped year to year. If this
Additional sector-specific insights from the
trend continues and electric vehicles are cheaper in the
modeling include:
future than current forecasts suggest, total decarboniza-
tion costs will be reduced.
3.1. Transportation Sector-Specific Results
Key conclusions from the modeling regarding the
3. Modeling Implications for Washington’s transportation sector are:
Energy Policy
The modeling offers insights for pathways to achieve the
j The Transport Fuels Scenario with lower levels of
state’s emissions reductions limits. Meeting these limits transport electrification is more costly than the
will require a clean electricity grid by 2030, doubling down Electrification Scenario with higher levels of transport
on energy efficiency to reduce energy use and electrifying electrification. Pursuing faster rates of transportation
as many energy end uses as practical. These actions alone electrification should lower the cost of meeting the
do not achieve the 2030 emissions target in any of the state’s greenhouse gas limits.
modeled scenarios. To further reduce emissions and meet j While electrifying passenger vehicles is a cost-effective
the limits, clean fuels must displace a portion of fossil strategy to achieve economy-wide net zero emissions
fuel use in the economy. by 2050 and helps reduce the need to invest in clean
energy technologies for economy-wide decarbonization,
Energy efficiency and electrification require significant
demand for fuels remains high in 2030 even in the Elec-
investments in new technology and infrastructure.
trification Scenario. In 2030, 73% of vehicles on the road
They are dependent on customers replacing inefficient
are still internal combustion engines using gasoline in
appliances, processes and vehicles with efficient or
the Electrification Scenario. This is because it takes time
electrified options.
for long-lived assets, such as cars and trucks, to come
The process of replacing technologies, such as appliances to the end of their useful lives and be replaced by new
and vehicles, takes time and meanwhile cleaner fuels will electric vehicles.43
reduce emissions from gasoline and diesel vehicles that
remain on the road. Accelerating development of a clean
fuels industry in the next 10 years is critical to meeting
43
Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Modeling Technical Report, December 11, 2020, p. 30.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 45
j Because there are fewer current low-carbon alternatives
for aviation — electrification technology is still nascent
— clean fuel production for air travel could provide both
a near-term and long-term strategy, given that signifi-
cant demand for jet fuel is likely to remain through 2050.
3.2. Building Sector-Specific Results
Key conclusions from the modeling regarding the building
sector are:
j The Gas in Buildings Scenario is more costly than the
Electrification Scenario in 2030 and beyond, particularly
when approaching net zero emissions in 2050. This is
because greater quantities of clean fuels are required
to offset the emissions from gas in the Gas in Build-
ings Scenario. The cost of those additional clean fuels
is higher than the cost of the electrification measures in
Insulation worker.
the Electrification Scenario.
j Decarbonizing liquid fuels rather than pipeline gas is
more cost effective because fossil liquid fuels are more
j For heavy-duty trucks, we assume demand for hydro- costly. This means higher savings from clean liquid
gen for long-distance hauling by 2050, including electric fuels alternatives.
trucks. This drives the need for hydrogen refueling and
j Building electrification and efficiency measures drive
delivery infrastructure. Whether hydrogen fuel cells are
a 26% reduction in final energy demand in the Electrifi-
favored for some transportation applications in the
cation Scenario and a 13% reduction in the Gas in
future will depend on the relative development of propul-
Buildings Scenario versus the Reference Scenario in
sion technologies. For short-haul trucks, we assume a
2050 in the building sector. However, the pace of stock
transition to 100% electric.44
rollover to new efficient technologies limits action by
2030, with reductions of 6.5% in final energy demand
3.1.1. Implications for State Energy Policy
in the Electrification Scenario and 3.5% in the Gas in
j Transportation electrification is key to cost effectively
Buildings Scenario versus the Reference Scenario
decarbonize Washington's economy. The sooner the
in the building sector.
state can electrify vehicles, the greater the avoided
investment in more expensive clean fuels, including
3.2.1. Implications for State Energy Policy
their associated infrastructure and feedstocks. The
j Converting building end uses to electricity is less
more the state can reduce VMT and encourage sustain-
expensive and more energy efficient than a strategy
able mobility, the less scale will be required in expand-
focused on creating synthetic pipeline gas, even if
ing the clean fuels industry, which is still in early stages
buildings convert to high-efficiency gas equipment.
of development. Taking early action now to reduce the
To decarbonize the economy while retaining fossil gas
2030 need for clean fuels has significant cost benefits.
use in buildings, clean gas would need to displace fossil
Costs are on average 0.2% lower as a percentage of
gas in the pipeline. Producing clean gas requires invest-
GDP in the Electrification Scenario than in the Transport
ment in infrastructure and feedstocks. At present fore-
Fuels Scenario, where less electrification is achieved.
44
Ibid, p. 31.
46 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
casted prices for these processes versus electrification in Buildings Scenarios, we know that lowering energy
of appliances, the electrification option results in a 0.3% consumption through electric vehicle purchases or elec-
of GDP savings annually by 2050 when comparing the trified building end uses lowers total costs by avoiding
Electrification Scenario to the Gas in Buildings Scenario. expensive clean fuels. Lowering energy consumption in
industry will also avoid expensive clean fuels with signif-
j The benefits of measures in buildings that reduce
icant cost savings. Electrification and other efficiency
energy use are high in both the near term and long term.
measures in industry will be cost effective so long as
This points to the value of early and aggressive action to
their implementation is cheaper than the production of
improve energy efficiency, including electrification and
the clean fuels they avoid.
other efficiency measures in buildings.
j Many more energy efficiency measures will be cost 3.3.1. Implications for State Energy Policy
effective in a decarbonizing world. By reducing energy
j As with the other sectors, cost-effective
use through energy efficiency, the state will reduce
electrification and/or efficiency measures will lower
the need for investment in infrastructure resulting in
total decarbonization costs by avoiding expensive
cost savings.
infrastructure investments.
j Industrial carbon capture can provide a significant
3.3. Industry Sector-Specific Results fraction of the carbon stream used to produce
Key conclusions from the modeling regarding the synthetic fuels, which points to the need for determining
industrial sector are: how much carbon capture potential exists in Washing-
ton state.
j All the decarbonization scenarios included the same
assumptions for the industrial sector, therefore we j Industrial flexible loads could be a major new industry
cannot draw any direct conclusions about one indus- in the future, producing hydrogen through electrolysis
trial strategy versus another. When comparing the that is used in production of clean fuels.
Electrification Scenario to the Transport Fuels and Gas
Renewable energy storage: hydrogen gas-to-clean electricity facility. Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 47
3.4. Electricity Sector-Specific Results j Absent technology breakthroughs in zero-carbon alter-
Key conclusions from the modeling regarding the natives, the Northwest builds 11 GW of gas plants, 3 GW
electricity sector are: of which are in Washington, for reliability by 2050. Gas
generators in Washington burn de minimis quantities of
j Increasing electricity demand through electrification gas after 2030 because of the need to reduce emissions
and expanding the electricity system to serve those and the large balancing capabilities of both the hydro
demands with clean electricity is a cost-effective system and electrolysis built for fuels production by
decarbonization strategy. Comparing the Electrification 2030. However, these gas generators provide capacity
Scenario to the Transport Fuels and Gas in Buildings during infrequent reliability events. CETA requires 100%
Scenarios shows that the greater levels of electrification clean electricity delivered to loads by 2045 in Washing-
in the Electrification Scenario result in cost savings. ton. By 2045, all gas burned during these events is
j Washington imports 43% of its clean energy from inland clean gas.
wind-rich states (Montana and Wyoming) in the Electri-
fication Scenario in 2050. The increased energy flows Early planning and determination of feasible
across multiple states and balancing areas will require projects and project costs should begin now
investment in new transmission and the efficient use of
to prepare for transmission in the future.
imports as a balancing resource. Efficient dispatch, akin
to a single balancing authority for western grid opera-
tions, is assumed in the model.
3.4.1. Implications for State Energy Policy
j Transmission expansion across the West is a key The twin challenges of decarbonization in Washington
part of lowering costs in the model results. Expanding are pace (to reach 2030) and scale (to reach 2050). Rapid
transmission, however, is a long, difficult process with change across all sectors of the economy is required to
many hurdles to overcome. Early planning and deter- meet the 2030 challenge. Pace applies to the electricity
mination of feasible projects and project costs should sector in two ways. The first is to meet the need for new
begin now to prepare for transmission in the future. infrastructure to support electrification of end uses with
Updated feasible path expansions and associated costs clean electricity. The second is production of synthetic
can be used in future state energy strategies to reeval- fuels that may be a component of providing clean fuels
uate the economics. While the additional costs result- to reach 2030 targets.
ing from no transmission expansion into Washington in
the Constrained Resource Scenario are relatively small Scale over a longer time period requires infrastructure
($0.5B/yr by 2050), expansion in the rest of the western investments supporting a doubling of electric load in
states still occurs in that scenario. Washington. Resource availability across the West will
drive Washington from being a net exporter of electricity
j Washington has limited build of in-state renewable
to importing a significant fraction of resources (43% in
resources in all decarbonization scenarios until 2040.
the Electrification Scenario).
Prior to that, it is more cost effective to import clean
energy from cheaper out-of-state sources. Between j Rapidly electrifying end uses, wherever possible,
2040 and 2050, Washington adds solar and offshore will drive down the need for clean fuels production
wind (12 GW and 4 GW, respectively, in the Electrifica- and reduce the investment in the infrastructure
tion Scenario). needed to produce them. This will drive expansion
of the electricity sector.
j Synthetic fuels produced through electrolysis will play
a major role in decarbonizing the Washington economy, j Planning for transmission expansion at the distribution
increasing electricity demand and providing long-term and transmission levels is key to enabling this shift in
balancing capabilities for the electricity grid. the power sector. Distribution planning will support the
48 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Engineer installing solar panel.
shift to electric vehicles and electrified end uses in j Furthermore, transmission expansion and greater inter-
buildings. Pursuing transmission expansion of inter- regional energy flows — taking advantage of geographic
ties now allows Washington to maintain the option of and renewable resource diversity, and interregional
importing additional low-cost renewables in future. balancing using large new flexible loads found in the
While the savings from expanding Washington’s inter- modeling results — will only be possible with better
ties are relatively low ($0.5B/yr by 2050), planning to regional coordination. The benefits of regional integra-
expand interties ensures Washington retains multiple tion will increase in the future as the emissions limits
decarbonization pathway options. By doing so the state become tighter and electricity loads grow through
reduces the risk that future challenges to implementa- electrification and electrolysis.
tion in any one pathway jeopardize achieving Washing-
ton’s emission limits. The modeling results determine in-state investments
in new resources. However, the model does not have
j The model determines resource adequacy as if the
a representation of the distribution system and the
West were a single balancing area. While not a replace-
potential benefits from deferral of investment in distribu-
ment for detailed resource adequacy studies, the
tion infrastructure from locating resources close to load.
model shows greater coordination and energy flows
Renewable potential assessments will determine how
will require resource adequacy determination on a
in-state resources should be sited to maximize net bene-
regional rather than local basis. Resource adequacy
fits, including indirect benefits such as equity, job growth
modeling will also have to evolve to incorporate
and environmental protection.
energy-constrained, as well as capacity-constrained,
conditions to ensure reliability during periods of low
The benefits of regional integration will
energy availability. This includes treatment of large
industrial flexible loads as resources for reliability. increase in the future as the emissions limits
become tighter and electricity loads grow
through electrification and electrolysis.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 49
C.
Use Energy More
Efficiently and
Decarbonize
Transportation
Energy
1. Move People and 53
Goods More Efficiently
and Equitably
2. Electrify Vehicles 61
and Switch to
Low-Carbon Fuels
50 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy EV charging car. john cameron
C. Use Energy More
Efficiently and Decarbonize
Transportation Energy
Transportation is the state’s number one source of green-
house gas emissions. To meet emission reduction limits,
vehicles will need to operate on renewable fuels, such as
biofuels, electricity and hydrogen, and communities must
reduce miles traveled, as well as increase transit, cycling
and walking.
Transportation is a major source of local air pollution that
disproportionately impacts the health of people living near
roadways, port facilities, industrial activity and railways —
communities where vulnerable populations often reside.
These populations are particularly sensitive to transporta-
tion pollution due to health, economic and other environ- Washington State ferry. Clean Energy Transition Institute
mental factors.
Structural issues regarding existing transportation improvement in environmental and economic benefits
systems must be addressed along with the required for communities.46
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. To create acces-
This balanced approach includes two complementary
sible, affordable, safe and sustainable mobility opportuni-
elements: using energy more efficiently and decarbon-
ties that work for all Washingtonians — particularly highly
izing the energy that is used. Pursuing one without the
impacted populations which often lack historical mobility
other will result in a costlier and less efficient transition.
investments — our transportation system must prioritize
The first element, transportation system efficiency, can
efficiency and equity improvements.
be addressed by reducing the number of vehicle-miles
The approach outlined here uses multiple policies to required to meet people’s needs and support economic
achieve comprehensive benefits, including improved activity.
public health due to reduced co-pollutants, increased
The second element — decarbonizing — requires
physical activity, reductions in traffic-related injuries,45
vehicles use zero-emission fuel, which will need accessible
greater economic opportunities due to lower costs and
and affordable charging and refueling infrastructure;
more mobility choices and increases in quality of life in
sufficient incentives to support rapid adoption; and educa-
both urban and rural areas. A balanced approach holds
tion and outreach so that Washingtonians can choose
the most promise to achieve the necessary outcomes
their mobility future.
— aggressive reductions in emissions and meaningful
45
Particulate emissions from tire wear, for example, can present a health hazard on par with car exhaust: “Non-Exhaust Emissions from Road Traffic” (Department for Environment, Food and
Rural Affairs; Scottish Government; Welsh Government; and Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland, 2019), https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/
cat09/1907101151_20190709_Non_Exhaust_Emissions_typeset_Final.pdf.
46
Harvard Chan C-CHANGE, “New TRECH Project Research Update on Health Benefits of TCI Policy Scenarios,” October 6, 2020, https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/c-change/news/trechstudy/.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 51
Transportation efficiency can be implemented in two basic Any single approach, if pursued in isolation, is likely to
ways. The first is to reduce the need for travel, which means have limited effectiveness. King County, for example, has
either shortening the distance that people and goods have found that to achieve its VMT reduction goals, the most
to travel (e.g., through improved urban design) or avoiding effective and lowest-cost strategy is to combine land-use
the need for trips altogether (e.g., via telemedicine). policy (focusing on compact, transit-oriented development
(TOD)), enhancement of transit service and travel-demand
The second way is to shift travel to more efficient modes, management policies including vehicle usage charges.47
such as public transit or maritime freight transport, which
can move more passengers or goods per trip. Although An important goal of state policy, therefore, should be to
certain approaches may be more relevant in an urban, promote complementary approaches in local and regional
suburban or rural environment, comprehensive implemen- transportation planning, development and operation. A key
tation will result in both equity and efficiency benefits. first step for transportation sector strategies is to provide
Nearly all of these approaches require coordination across a roadmap — with clearly defined targets — describing
multiple jurisdictions. how the state will achieve an equitable transition to a
zero-carbon transportation sector.
47
Kuharic, Stroble, and Binder, “King County 2020 Strategy Climate Plan.”
52 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Downtown public transit tunnel in Seattle, WA. Gil Aegerter
1. Move People and Goods More Efficiently
and Equitably
People and goods are often transported across the
same roads. Land-use policies and road system designs
influence both passenger and freight travel. Cost,
efficiency and accessibility determine whether people
and goods travel by road, rail, sea or air.
Moving people and goods more efficiently, therefore,
requires a holistic, integrated approach across modes,
taking into account different transportation needs and
purposes. An integrated approach also means under-
standing the basis for different types of travel, including
commuting, regional and long-distance passenger travel,
Amtrak Cascades passenger train in Puyallup, WA.
commercial services, shopping and leisure trips, short- WA State Department of Transportation
haul freight transfer and delivery and long-haul freight.
Strategies for improving transportation efficiency and In addition, direction is needed regarding land-use plan-
equity fall into two categories: ning and infrastructure investments to reduce the need
for, and shift modes of, travel. Two elements are essential
j Improving the design and operation of Washington’s
here: updating the state’s existing VMT reduction targets
transportation networks. State government has consid-
and establishing new, explicit targets for transportation
erable leverage over how Washington’s transportation
systems, such as transit and bicycling, and broadband
systems are developed, operated and connected for all
infrastructure.
users. Although responsibilities for different aspects of
the systems are spread across multiple jurisdictions, the The decentralized structure of Washington’s transpor-
state can take important steps to improve coordination, tation system makes the development and oversight
set priorities and enable local and regional actions. of common targets both challenging and important. As
j Improving vehicle fuel economies. Here, state the legislature’s Joint Transportation Committee (JTC)
government has less direct influence, but can drive has noted: “What is sometimes referred to as the ‘state
improvements by continuing to require vehicles transportation system’ is actually a decentralized network
to meet California emission standards, and by managed by a variety of jurisdictions, including the state,
establishing programs to accelerate the retirement Tribal nations, counties, cities, port districts and public
of inefficient vehicles. transit authorities.”48 Transportation system needs are
largely defined from the “bottom up,” with each jurisdiction
identifying specific requirements for maintenance and
1.1. Set Clear and Ambitious Targets new capital expenditures based on local circumstances.
An important first step in increasing the efficiency of the
The state already engages in discrete planning exercises
transportation system is for the state to establish targets
to consolidate information about local transportation
and milestones that provide clear direction and author-
needs. This information informs certain decisions about
ity for action. In the case of transportation, the actors are
state-level policies and investments. WSDOT’s Active
state agencies, regional and metropolitan planning orga-
Transportation Plan,49 for example, is soliciting input from
nizations, developers, county and local governments and
local communities about walking and cycling infrastruc-
private sector organizations, such as logistics companies.
48
BERK Consulting, “Statewide Transportation Needs Assessment: July 2020 Phase I Report” (Joint Transportation Committee, 2020), http://leg.wa.gov/JTC/Documents/Studies/
Statewide%20Needs%202019/FinalReport_StatewideNeeds.pdf.
49
Washington State Department of Transportation, “WSDOT Active Transportation Plan 2019,” October 23, 2020, https://wsdot.wa.gov/travel/commute-choices/bike/plan.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 53
ture needs with a goal to coordinate efforts to meet these be provided to enhance the capacity of local jurisdictions
needs. Going forward it will be increasingly important to and local community groups to pursue those priorities.
align local transportation planning efforts with statewide Strategy, design and deployment should reflect the needs
VMT reduction goals. of each community.
Enhancing statewide VMT reduction goals will not — To achieve transportation efficiency targets, the state
in and of itself — achieve Washington’s transportation must set clear priorities for local jurisdictions to follow.
accessibility and sustainability goals. Carefully designed One approach is for the Legislature to adopt evaluation
efficiency metrics will enable communities to monitor metrics for funding proposals. Metrics should be devel-
desired mobility outcomes. Efficiency metrics may include, oped and prioritized through collaboration with multi-
but are not limited to, energy intensity per passenger- ple stakeholders, including relevant state agencies, local
mile, travel time for trips, availability of mobility choices governments, planning authorities, Tribal nations, port
or completion of mobility projects. districts, transit authorities, business groups and frontline
and community groups.
ACTIONS
Effective inter-jurisdictional coordination is essential for
j The Legislature, in consultation with WSDOT and local
the success of VMT-reducing measures, including the
transportation organizations, should adjust and update
development of transit systems, walking and cycling
state VMT reduction targets to reflect existing VMT
infrastructure and intermodal connections. Existing
levels and the state’s greenhouse gas emission limits.
planning tools for transportation systems, such as the
See Appendix C for detailed VMT background and
Statewide Human Services Transportation Plan, the State
recommendations.
Public Transportation Plan and the State Active Trans-
j The Legislature should consider transportation portation Plan, support this coordination and identify
efficiency and emission targets to accompany updates gaps in infrastructure and service throughout the state.
to VMT reduction targets. (See Appendix C.) As discussed in subsection 1.3, additional funding can
j The Legislature should direct WSDOT and Commerce address these gaps.
- in consultation with local and regional jurisdictions,
Coordination among organizations is key: funding and
as well as highly impacted populations - to adopt new,
resourcing is needed where it is lacking, and evaluation of
discrete, near- and long-term targets for transit and
existing coordination must occur where results are slow or
active transportation and to recommend new targets
absent. Although effective cross-jurisdictional coordination
for broadband access.
is a key goal of the state’s regional transportation planning
organizations (and federally funded metropolitan plan-
ning organizations), the state could amplify these efforts
1.2. Improve Transportation System Planning and
by expanding funding criteria to include elements such as
Coordination, Prioritizing VMT Reduction
transit and alternative mobility projects.
In assessing statewide transportation needs, the JTC
found that there is no consistent, statewide approach
In addition, while building out transit and active transport
to identifying needs and planning for improvements,
infrastructure is an important goal, there must be active
nor are there consistent standards for levels of service.
local engagement to ensure build out happens and meets
To improve the efficiency and equity of Washington’s
community needs. Funding should be made available to
transportation system, the state must take steps to set
support participation in equity advisory groups involved in
statewide priorities for land-use planning, infrastructure
transportation planning and implementation.
development and service improvements. Resources must
54 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
The siting of housing developments near services, Targets for EVs, low-carbon fuel
amenities and transportation services can result in a adoption and associated infrastructure
20-40% reduction in VMT, and a corresponding decline
development will send an important
in greenhouse gas emissions and congestion.50 A study
signal to regulatory agencies.
conducted in King County found that residents of the
most walkable neighborhoods drive 26% fewer miles than
those living in the most sprawling areas.51 Similar stud-
ACTIONS
ies elsewhere find a 33% reduction in VMT for households
living in more dense developments with a diversity of uses, j The Legislature, in collaboration with WSDOT and
accessible destinations and interconnected streets when other agencies, should adopt and apply metrics for
compared to households in low-density areas.52 state transportation funding linked to key efficiency
and equity outcomes.
Smaller communities may lack resources to engage in
the land-use planning exercises and infrastructure devel-
j The Legislature, state agencies and local governments
opment that would maximize transportation system should take steps to incentivize and remove barriers
efficiency and equity, especially where inter-jurisdictional that restrict TOD. (See Appendix C.)
coordination is required. For all jurisdictions, one way to j The Legislature, in consultation with state agencies
address such gaps is to provide model code and rules for and local governments, should link cross-jurisdictional
local jurisdictions to incorporate into their transportation coordination and community engagement with funding
and land-use planning. Materials should facilitate coor- related to the planning and implementation of land-use
dination around transit-oriented corridor planning, devel- policies, TOD, transportation demand management
opment of transit and active transport infrastructure and (TDM) measures (including vehicle usage charges or
zoning for transit-oriented, mixed use and compact devel- similar policies), transit and active transport infrastruc-
opment, including elements related to implementation, ture development and other measures designed to
administrative procedures and community engagement. reduce VMT and enhance accessibility and mobility.
For example, a standard checklist for lane-widening j The Legislature should direct and fund WSDOT and
proposals could facilitate evaluation of alternatives and Commerce to establish and manage a clearinghouse
ensure consistency and coordination with other trans- of model code, model rules, policy packages and
portation system elements. Similarly, investment in and standardized checklists as a resource for local jurisdic-
preservation of low-income housing, community-serving tions engaged in transportation system planning and
businesses and cultural centers near transit create more development, including to help inform comprehensive
opportunities for those with the fewest choices. Sound plans and development codes.
Transit, is developing a model rule for corridor planning j The Legislature should fund WSDOT and Commerce
that will help to align local efforts with regional objec- to provide centralized assistance for jurisdictions
tives.53 The Puget Sound Regional Council has developed to support development and implementation of model
similar model codes and policies. code related to corridor planning, “smart growth”
zoning and land-use policies, TOD and related
infrastructure development
50
“Housing and Climate Change” (California Department of Housing & Community Development, 2013), https://www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/plans-reports/docs/pb04housing_climate_
change0214.pdf.
51
“A Study of Land Use, Transportation, Air Quality, and Health (LUTAQH) in King County, WA: Executive Summary” (Lawrence Frank and Company, Inc., 2005), http://urbandesign4health.com/
wp-content/uploads/2012/03/LUTAQH_exec_summary_092705.pdf.
52
Reid Ewing et al., “Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change” (Urban Land Institute, 2007), https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/cit_07092401a.pdf.
53
“Federal Transit Administration Awards Sound Transit $2 Million for Everett Link Transit-Oriented Development Pilot,” Sound Transit, June 15, 2020, https://www.soundtransit.org/get-to-
know-us/news-events/news-releases/federal-transit-administration-awards-sound-transit-2.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 55
Vehicle fees, some of which are not subject to constitu-
tional limitations, mostly fund the multimodal account.
The JTC report explores a range of alternative revenue
sources that could be adopted to fund the state’s
transportation system while providing stable and diverse
funding, including and in addition to the more limited
gas tax and vehicle fees.
With decarbonization, one important funding consider-
ation is the replacement of gas tax revenues that decline
as more drivers adopt electric vehicles. The Washington
State Transportation Commission (WSTC) recently identi-
fied a road usage charge (RUC) as one possible substitute
for the gas tax and provided a series of recommendations
to support implementing a RUC.55 The WSTC continues
to study this concept, including conducting an analysis of
potential equity impacts of a RUC and developing frame-
works for various types of vehicles.
Spokane Transit GILLIG Hybrid Electric bus. Atomic Taco
Current transportation system policy goals for Washing-
ton include economic vitality, preservation, safety, mobil-
ity, environmental impacts and stewardship.56 Although
1.3. Expand and Align Transportation Funding with
Emissions and Equity Goals several of these goals intersect with reducing emissions,
Building a more efficient and equitable transportation improving transportation efficiency, reducing VMT and
system in Washington will require investment to develop enhancing equity, none explicitly call for action to equitably
and maintain new infrastructure and to ensure that exist- achieve Washington’s greenhouse gas limits.
ing infrastructure continues to be safe and functional.
Greater statutory clarity on the expectations for the
It will also require a reprioritization of funding to align
transportation sector regarding greenhouse gas emis-
investments with VMT reduction and equity targets.
sions reductions would help steer investment where it is
In its 2020 Statewide Transportation Needs Assessment, most needed. Any statutory effort should address safe,
the JTC found that jurisdictions at all levels lack sufficient complete and welcoming active transportation and transit
funding to meet current transportation needs.54 Current networks integrated with compact land-use patterns that
state transportation funding derives from revenue sources put frequently visited destinations within a short distance
that fluctuate with macroeconomic conditions. Gas taxes of most Washingtonian’s homes.
and vehicle fees collected by the state account for a large
As noted in section 1.2, inter-jurisdictional coordination
portion of the transportation budget.
and community engagement are essential for the success
Gas taxes are subject to the 18th Amendment of the of VMT-reducing measures and infrastructure projects.
Washington State Constitution, which requires that In conjunction with making funding contingent on effec-
revenue collected through gas taxes and some vehicle tive coordination and local engagement, funding should
fees only be used for “highway purposes.” be sufficient to cover these requirements. Existing state
and federal funding mechanisms often emphasize upfront
planning and project or policy design, and may provide
insufficient support for full implementation.
54
BERK Consulting, “Statewide Transportation Needs Assessment: July 2020 Phase I Report.”
55
Washington State Transportation Commission, “Washington State Road Usage Charge Assessment Final Report,” 2020, https://waroadusagecharge.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/
WSTC-Final-Report-Vol-1-WEB-2020_01.pdf.
56
Chapter 47.04.280 RCW.
56 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Processes behind state and federal funding can result in j The Legislature should expand transportation system
some project “legs” that are unfunded and disconnected policy goals to expressly address VMT reduction,
from the entire project and other modes. In some cases, efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions reductions and
important “last mile” connections between transporta- equity as a means to achieve accessibility and environ-
tion network elements go unfinished (e.g., street designs mental stewardship objectives.
accommodating pedestrian or bicycling access to
j The Legislature should fully fund inter-jurisdictional
transit systems).
coordination and community engagement as part of
The state should adjust and expand transportation transportation system improvements.
funding to ensure successful “back end” implementation j The Legislature should establish a fund to support
and evaluation. Where relevant, funding could be allocated opportunistic consideration — and incorporation —
separately for the implementation of approved plans rather of connections between transportation system
than in a single tranche covering planning and implemen- elements, and between these systems and other
tation. Funding should also expressly target evaluation beneficial infrastructure.
efforts that inform and improve subsequent project stages
or policy revisions.
1.4. Remove Barriers to Transit, Walking and Cycling
Washington’s current transportation planning and funding
Boosting transit ridership and use of active transport
models make it too easy for responsible jurisdictions to
options requires a comprehensive approach involving
overlook or ignore synergies or overlaps with other types
land-use change, transit service expansion and appropri-
of infrastructure, or connections with other elements of
ate travel-demand management measures implemented
the transportation system. For example, common use
at local and regional levels. The state can play a key role
rights-of-way for transit projects may also accommodate
in assisting these efforts.
electrical or communications infrastructure.
Public transit service is a universal need across the state.
In the development stage, transit corridors can more easily
Rural and Tribal communities benefit from public tran-
be expanded to include pedestrian and cycling amenities,
sit, as well as van pools,57 paratransit and ridesharing
improving connections between different modes. Allocat-
programs that typically operate on minimal budgets.
ing more funding to implementation efforts could help
These services should be enhanced and expanded and
to address these gaps, but funding restrictions can limit
encouraged to transition to EVs.58 Washington’s public
jurisdictions from considering indirect “external benefits”
transit providers face budget challenges under their
in both the planning and implementation phases.
current funding models. Stabilizing and expanding tran-
sit funding with more direct and consistent state funding
ACTIONS
would help to expand access and maximize the public
j The Legislature should identify and establish stable benefit value of transit services in urban, suburban and
funding mechanisms for maintenance, preservation and rural communities.
system improvements across all transportation modes.
The funding must be stable, equitable and accessible
to all jurisdictions and sufficient to cover programmatic
and capital needs.
57
“Farmworkers,” accessed October 23, 2020, https://calvans.org/farmworkers.
58
Shared-use Mobility Center, “SUMC Celebrates Launch of New EV Rideshare ‘Green Raiteros,’” accessed October 23, 2020, https://sharedusemobilitycenter.org/
sumc-celebrates-launch-of-new-ev-rideshare-green-raiteros/.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 57
In Washington State, 28% of people live in or near poverty. ACTIONS
Among this group of households, the percentage who do
j The Legislature and local governments should adopt
not own a vehicle is 6.8 times higher than among other
incentive programs that offset the relative cost of
households.59 On average, light rail systems produce 62%
transit and other alternative travel modes.
less and bus transit 33% less greenhouse gas emissions
per passenger mile than private vehicles.60 Making public j Along with increasing and stabilizing transportation
transit safer, more convenient and more accessible will funding, the Legislature, local governments and transit
increase ridership and reduce emissions. agencies should explore options to make transit univer-
sally affordable, including creating a statewide transit
Electric bicycles (e-bikes) and scooters can reduce trans- pass option and means-tested transit subsidies for
portation-related congestion, local air pollution and green- low- and no-income riders, or establishing fare-free
house gas emissions. However, e-bikes typically cost more transit statewide.
than traditional bikes and can be unaffordable for many
j Urban and rural transit improvements, funded by the
people. Many countries, states and cities have adopted
Legislature and local governments, should directly
incentives for e-bikes to reduce their upfront costs and
benefit highly impacted populations and people with
accelerate adoption, including state-funded rebates or
disabilities.65
discounts offered through electric utilities.61
j Transit agencies should invest in transit infrastructure
WSDOT oversees a longstanding, statewide commute trip including lighting, covered stops and pedestrian
reduction (CTR) program that encourages employers to crossings.
promote alternatives to commuting via single-occupancy
vehicles.62 After the law and funding allocations were last
j The Legislature, local governments and businesses
amended by the 2006 Commute Trip Reduction Efficiency should explore options for providing incentives for
Act,63 implementation shifted, and the state’s primary role e-bikes and other electric transportation devices.
became assisting local jurisdictions in establishing and j WSDOT, in partnership with the Legislature, transit
maintaining their CTR programs. agencies and the private sector, should expand the
reach of and funding for Washington’s CTR program.
This has led, in part, to uneven application of transit and
active transportation options in urban growth areas.64
Engagement efforts are underway with state legislators
and other stakeholders to provide program flexibility that
would allow CTR participants to focus on a variety of trip
purposes beyond commuting (e.g., education, shopping,
medical services). To further influence program success,
additional funding beyond the 2006-dollar allocations
must be considered.
59
“2016 Washington State Public Transportation Plan” (Washington State Department of Transportation, 2016), https://wsdot.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2019/10/15/PT-Report-WashingtonSt
atePublicTransportationPlan-2016.pdf. p. 33
60
“2016 Washington State Public Transportation Plan.” p. 35
61
Portland State University et al., “How E-Bike Incentive Programs Are Used to Expand the Market” (Transportation Research and Education Center (TREC), May 2019), https://doi.
org/10.15760/trec.223.
62
Washington State Department of Transportation, “Commute Trip Reduction,” October 23, 2020, https://wsdot.wa.gov/transit/ctr/home.
63
Zachary James Wieben, “What Contributes to Successful Commute Trip Reduction in the State of Washington? A Focus on Transit Accessibility” (University of Washington, 2017), https://
digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/handle/1773/40307
64
Ibid.
65
Puget Sound Sage and Transportation Choices, “More Places, Better Connections: Transit Priorities for Residents of South Seattle and South King County,” 2020, https://www.
pugetsoundsage.org/research/research-equitable-development/more-places-better-connections/.
58 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Big rig semi truck transporting refrigerated cargo.
1.5. Support Measures to Optimize Freight VMT Some freight optimization policies are best implemented
Freight includes a wide variety of goods movement, at the national level. For example, policies that encour-
from international transport and long-haul trucking to age more efficient handling of long-haul freight using rail
delivery to individual homes and businesses. Goods instead of trucks. State and local policy should address
move through a multimodal freight system made up of freight congestion and bottlenecks and improve first-
a collection of public and private infrastructure with last mile connections. The specific types of strategies
operational decisions largely made by the private sector. needed will depend on the locale. Strategies for reducing
Freight operators rely on and generate extensive data; freight VMT also need to consider the pollution and
however, this data is not typically available to the public health impacts on highly impacted populations.66
sector for proprietary reasons.
The state’s options to affect long-haul freight mode
Growth in freight demand, including the associated choice and efficiency are more limited but should support
demand for digital commerce, is expected to increase national and regional efforts through in-state land-use
alongside population growth. In light of this, the state planning and infrastructure development. This includes
should work with the freight industry to support the optimizing local connections to improve the economics
efficient movement of goods by ensuring that all of rail and shipping transport.
available options are pursued to mitigate the number
of vehicle-miles needed for transport and delivery.
66
University of Washington, “Supply Chain Transportation & Logistics Center,” October 23, 2020, https://depts.washington.edu/sctlctr/.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 59
ACTIONS Continuing to follow California's vehicle
j To further optimize freight movement and logistics emission standards will be critical to
and reduce environmental impacts in communities, the reducing emissions from transportation
Legislature should provide WSDOT funding to assess over the net 10 years.
how to effectively mitigate freight VMT and greenhouse
gas emissions.
j State and local governments should have access to The state may also be able to accelerate fuel economy
sufficient resources, including data, to conduct planning improvements through vehicle purchase and retirement
and implement strategies for reducing VMT and green- programs or similar measures. Vehicle buyback programs
house gas emissions in freight operations. can help improve cumulative fuel economies by taking
older, less efficient vehicles off the road, including trucks
j The Legislature, state agencies and local governments
and drayage vehicles. A buyback program could be a
should explore ways to incentivize VMT and greenhouse
cost-effective way to reduce the need for costly synthetic
gas reductions in freight operations.
fuels if adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) fails to
j The state, in coordination with the freight industry, keep pace with what is needed to meet state greenhouse
should develop a freight VMT and greenhouse gas gas reduction limits (see Chapter B - Achieving Our Carbon
emission action plan to help meet the state’s Emissions Goals).
emission reduction limits.
A vehicle buyback program could help low-income resi-
dents purchase a new vehicle. A buyback program in Brit-
1.6 Continue to Support Vehicle ish Columbia called “BC-Scrap It” also allows participants
Fuel Economy Improvements to opt for payments toward transit passes, car share and
Fuel economies for passenger and freight vehicles are ride share services, or e-bikes.70
largely determined by federal standards. Washington has
limited authority to unilaterally increase average fuel econ- ACTIONS
omies. However, by continuing to join with other states j The Department of Ecology must continue to implement
and follow California’s “clean car rule” 67 regulating green- California's “advanced clean car” emissions standards
house gas tailpipe emissions for passenger vehicles and and follow through with implementation of measures
“clean truck rule”68 setting targets for sales of medium- and needed to match California’s ZEV sales targets for
heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles, the state can signifi- medium- and heavy-duty trucks.
cantly reduce energy consumption, save on fuel costs and
j The Legislature, in consultation with Commerce and
lower greenhouse gas emissions.69 Continuing to follow
Ecology, should explore whether a state-run vehicle
California vehicle emission standards, as allowed under
buyback program could cost-effectively and equitably
federal law, will be critical to reducing statewide transpor-
contribute to near-term greenhouse gas reductions, and,
tation greenhouse gas emissions over the next 10 years.
if feasible and appropriate, adopt such a program.
67
California Air Resources Board, “Advanced Clean Cars Program,” accessed October 23, 2020, https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-cars-program/about.
68
California Air Resources Board, “15 States and the District of Columbia Join Forces to Accelerate Bus and Truck Electrification,” October 23, 2020, https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/
news/15-states-and-district-columbia-join-forces-accelerate-bus-and-truck-electrification.
69
Federal law grants California a waiver allowing the adoption of more stringent emissions standards, which other states are free to follow. See https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/
pollution-standards-authorized-california-waiver-crucial-tool-fighting-air.
70
“Scrap Vehicle Rebates and Incentives for BC Residents,” accessed October 14, 2020, https://scrapit.ca.
60 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
2. Electrifying Vehicles and Switching to
Low-Carbon Fuels
Rapid advancements are being made for electric vehicles
(EV) technologies that use batteries (BEVs) or fuel cells
(FCVs), and development of low-carbon liquid and gaseous
fuels. BEVs, in particular, are already making strong
inroads in the passenger vehicle market and to a lesser
extent the freight vehicle market. Upfront costs are rapidly
declining, driving range is increasing and more options
are becoming available across vehicle classes. BEVs are
expected to reach cost parity across passenger vehicle
classes by the mid-2020s.71
BEVs provide consumers with numerous advantages over
gasoline-powered vehicles, including per-mile cost savings
Bike share in Ravenna Park, Seattle, WA. Clean Energy Transition Institute
when substituting electricity for gasoline, and cheaper,
less frequent maintenance. Electric vehicle adoption will
improve local air quality in Washington communities
through the reduction of co-pollutants like PM2.5 and NOx. As in other states, Washington should set clear
Vehicle exhaust is currently the largest source of air near- and long-term targets for battery electric
pollution in the state, contributing to asthma and other and fuel cell vehicle sales and adoption.
respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.72
Moreover, the deep decarbonization modeling shows that BEVs, and increasingly FCVs, also provide opportunities
accelerating vehicle electrification will yield substantial to reduce emissions and costs for rail and off-road trans-
cost savings by reducing the need to produce synthetic portation (e.g., construction equipment, farm equipment
liquid fuels for use in conventional vehicles. Despite these and warehouse and port vehicles). Shore power, in particu-
advantages, market forces alone will not achieve the pace lar, could dramatically reduce in-port emissions from inter-
of BEV and FCV adoption that is needed to meet Washing- national shipping. Efforts are already underway to electrify
ton’s greenhouse gas reduction limits. marine vessels, including conversion of Washington’s
ferries to diesel-electric hybrid operation and development
Universal access to charging and fueling infrastructure of shore power facilities at Washington’s ports.
is crucial for accelerating the pace of transportation
decarbonization, but other policies are required as In 2019, Washington State Ferries submitted their 2040
demonstrated by the decarbonization modeling discussed Long Range Plan to the Governor and the Legislature.73
in Chapter B. These policies must synchronize with The plan recommends that WSF leverage the need for
broader clean and accessible mobility policies, such as new vessels to meet and exceed carbon dioxide emissions
increasing public transit and active transportation. As in reduction requirements under state law. To accomplish
other states, Washington should set clear near- and this and to cut fuel consumption, the plan recommends
long-term targets for BEV and FCV sales and adoption. building new vessels to use hybrid propulsion technology
instead of full diesel engines, a large investment in the
electrification of the fleet by 2040, and the electrification
of 17 terminals.
71
Nick Albanese, “BNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020,” https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/getdocument.aspx?tn=233410.
72
Washington State Department of Health, “Sources of Outdoor Air Pollution and Health Impacts,” October 23, 2020, https://www.doh.wa.gov/CommunityandEnvironment/AirQuality/
OutdoorAir.
73
“Washington State Ferries Long Range Plan,” Washington State Department of Transportation, accessed December 1, 2020, https://wsdot.wa.gov/ferries/about-us/planning/long-range-
plan/the-plan.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 61
Poplar harvesting for biofuels. Marcus Kauffman
Electrification is also a promising option for decarboniz- One way for Washington to advance its
ing short-haul air travel. Policies to accelerate BEV and energy and climate goals in a market-
FCV adoption generally should include measures, such
friendly and technology-neutral way would
as charging and fueling infrastructure development, to
be to adopt a low carbon fuel standard.
address these transportation segments as well.
Not all segments of the transportation sector can be
One way for Washington to advance its energy and
readily electrified through onboard battery storage. As the
climate goals in a market-friendly and technology-neutral
deep decarbonization modeling results suggest, long-haul
way would be to adopt a low carbon fuel standard
freight trucks, some off-road vehicles, and long-distance
(LCFS). In British Columbia, California and Oregon, LCFS
rail, shipping and aviation will likely need to rely on liquid
policies have incentivized clean fuel production and devel-
or gaseous fuels for the foreseeable future. This limitation
opment of charging and fueling infrastructure and accel-
is mainly due to range and energy density requirements,
erated adoption of EVs and low carbon fuels across all
as well as the fact that many vehicles in these segments
transportation segments (on-road, off-road, rail, marine
have long service lifetimes.74 Part of Washington’s strat-
and aviation).
egy should be to expand clean fuels production and, where
needed, encourage the development of associated trans- A similar standard in Washington could accelerate
port and fueling infrastructure (e.g., hydrogen for FCVs). decarbonization of the transportation sector throughout
(Chapter E - Promote Clean and Competitive Industries the West Coast and result in an in-state clean fuel industry
discusses policy approaches for fostering the develop- that is both domestically and internationally competitive
ment of an in-state clean fuels industry.) (see Chapter E - Promote Clean and Competitive Industries
for discussions of an LCFS).
74
International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2020, Energy Technology Perspectives (OECD, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1787/d07136f0-en.
62 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
2.1. Set Clear and Ambitious Statewide Targets In addition, the state should explore options for increased
Setting and achieving targets that are consistent with community-scale air quality monitoring,79 especially in
the state’s emissions limits will be challenging. These areas close to major roadways, freight depots, ports
targets will need to be realistic in light of market and legal and other facilities that produce substantial amounts of
constraints. As difficult as the transition will be, the need for transportation-related air pollutants. Improved access to
specific targets is clear, as is the need to establish account- air quality data will empower communities and measure
ability and responsibility. Phasing out the use of gaso- whether the areas with the highest pollution burden are
line- and diesel-powered vehicles by mid-century is key to realizing the health benefits of vehicle electrification and
achieving Washington’s emissions limits at minimum cost. clean fuels.
Targets for EVs, low-carbon fuel adoption and associated ACTIONS
infrastructure development will send an important signal
j The Legislature, in consultation with state agencies,
to regulatory agencies, the public and the private sector,
should set targets for EV and FCV adoption, differen-
allowing for better planning and coordination. Ongoing
tiated by vehicle class. These targets must be aligned
tracking of progress will increase accountability and allow
with ambitious targets in existing agreements with
policy efforts to adapt over time.
other states.80 (See Appendix C for detailed target
For passenger cars to be fully zero-emissions by mid-cen- recommendations and additional information on
tury, nearly all new car sales will need to be EVs by 2035.75 California’s various rules.)
The faster this transition occurs, the less costly it will be to j The Legislature should direct and fund a comprehen-
meet the state’s greenhouse gas emissions limits. Explicit sive BEV charging and FCV fueling infrastructure needs
near- and long-term targets for BEV and FCV adoption will assessment. (See Appendix C for additional details.)
help keep the state on track. Vehicle replacement targets
j The Legislature, in consultation with state agencies
should be especially aggressive for diesel-fueled, short-
and upon completion of the infrastructure needs
haul vehicle classes (e.g., school and transit buses, utility
assessment, should set explicit targets for charging
and service vehicles, local freight delivery, drayage and
and refueling infrastructure deployment and provide
off-road vehicles) that contribute disproportionately to
state funding for infrastructure deployment.
local air pollution, especially in frontline communities.
j The Department of Licensing must continue to
Targets are also required for charging and hydrogen fuel- publicly track annual metrics on BEV and FCV adoption;
ing infrastructure, since adequate charging is required for Commerce should develop and track metrics for
market acceptance of BEVs and FCVs. Infrastructure must infrastructure deployment.
be widely available, affordable and accessible to commu-
nities and the full range of vehicle classes. Rural areas
j The Legislature, in consultation with the Department
outside the reach of mass transit systems will require of Ecology and local clean air agencies, should
BEV and FCV options to achieve low-carbon transporta- fund expanded deployment of community-scale air
tion.76 The potential economic benefits to rural drivers are quality monitoring in highly impacted populations.
substantial because rural drivers spend up to twice as
much on fuel as urban drivers.77, 78
75
The typical lifetime for light-duty vehicles is around 15 years.
76
Sarah White, Laura Dresser, and Joel Rogers, “Greener Reality: Jobs, Skills, and Equity in a Cleaner U.S. Economy” (University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2012), http://repository.law.wisc.edu/s/
uwlaw/item/27119.
77
“The Clean Energy Future Protecting the Climate, Creating Jobs and Saving Money” (Labor Network for Sustainability & Synapse Energy Economics, 2015), https://www.synapse-energy.
com/project/clean-energy-future-protecting-climate-creating-jobs-and-saving-money.
78
“Electric Vehicle Benefits for Washington” (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2019), https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2019/04/State-Benefits-of-EVs-WA.pdf.
79
Elena Craft et al., “Making the Invisible Visible: A Guide for Mapping Hyperlocal Air Pollution to Drive Clean Air Action” (Environmental Defense Fund, 2019), https://www.edf.org/sites/default/
files/content/making-the-invisible-visible.pdf.
80
For example, Washington is a signatory to a 15-state memorandum of understanding to work collaboratively to advance and accelerate the market for electric trucks and buses: California
Air Resources Board, “15 States and the District of Columbia Join Forces to Accelerate Bus and Truck Electrification,” accessed October 23, 2020, https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/
news/15-states-and-district-columbia-join-forces-accelerate-bus-and-truck-electrification.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 63
2.2. Improve Planning and Oversight of BEV Charging Rapid adoption of electric vehicles will require widespread
and FCV Fueling Infrastructure access to charging equipment. Ensuring adequate
In addition to the targets and assessment described capacity and infrastructure to incorporate EVSE in new
in section 2.1, the envisioned deployment of adequate buildings and in building retrofits is essential for expanding
charging and fueling infrastructure would be well-served access and making EVs a desirable option for businesses
by creating a state-level planning and development entity. and households.
By providing needed accountability and communication,
this entity would help ensure the equitable, efficient, coor- ACTIONS
dinated and timely implementation of capital projects j The Legislature should establish a permanent BEV
needed to deploy BEV charging and FCV fueling infra- charging and FCV fueling infrastructure planning and
structure at a rapid pace. The entity should lead efforts development entity responsible for setting near- and
to conduct statewide needs assessments (section 2.1) long-term priorities, coordinating among different stake-
and work with state agencies and the Legislature to cover holders and jurisdictions, and helping to secure funding.
infrastructure gaps that other public entities and the
j To enable widespread access to EV-charging equip-
private sector may not address.
ment, the Legislature should establish — and promote
The planning entity should clearly identify roles and enforcement of — building codes that require instal-
responsibilities for stakeholders and jurisdictions involved lation of conduit, wiring and panel capacity needed to
in infrastructure planning and development, including support EVSE in new and retrofitted buildings, including
public and private utilities, RTPOs and MPOs, local and commercial buildings, office buildings and multi-family
tribal governments, public and private vehicle fleet owners, dwelling units. (See Chapter D – Decarbonizing the
equity advisors, frontline community groups and others. Built Environment.)
Planning and development criteria should prioritize proj- j The Legislature, in consultation with state agencies,
ects in communities underserved by existing infrastructure
local governments and transit agencies, should iden-
and reduce air pollution in highly impacted populations,
tify major BEV charging and FCV fueling infrastructure
especially around ports and distribution centers identified
projects with significant public benefit and provide these
through a cumulative impacts analysis tool.
with direct public investment.
The private sector can drive some of the investment j The Legislature and state agencies should directly
needed to serve growing BEV and FCV infrastructure support, and further enable electric utilities to support,
demand. Typically, however, private providers target
81
EVSE in underserved urban and rural communities.
electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) investments
only in more lucrative areas. Direct public funding may be
needed for major capital projects, especially those involv- Planning and development criteria
ing large capacity installations serving ports, fleets, rail, should prioritize projects in communities
on-road freight and aviation. Public support may also be
underserved by existing infrastructure
needed to support EVSE investment in areas underserved
and reduce air pollution in highly
by private actors across the state. The state’s electric
utilities should also be encouraged to make investments impacted populations.
in EVSE that in the near term would not be supported by
private investment.
81
Conner Smith, “Investment in Public EV Charging in the United States” (Atlas Public Policy, Alliance for Transportation Electrification, n.d.), https://www.atlasevhub.com/wp-content/
uploads/2020/02/Investment-in-Public-EV-Charging-in-the-United-States.pdf.
64 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
2.3. Accelerate the Market for BEVs and FCVs “range anxiety” issues related to maximum travel distance
The market for BEVs and FCVs is developing quickly, and availability of charging and fueling options. State-
particularly for passenger vehicles. Still, the pace of supported education and outreach efforts could help
adoption will need to accelerate to meet greenhouse gas achieve these aims. As with rebate programs, the state’s
reduction limits. A range of parallel and complementary electric utilities should be enlisted in these efforts.
actions will push the market further and ensure equitable
and affordable access. ACTIONS
j The Department of Enterprise Services, with support
An opportunity for immediate progress is converting
from the Legislature and other state agencies, should
public and private vehicle fleets to BEVs and FCVs. Fleet
continue efforts to convert state-owned vehicle fleets
owners can achieve economies of scale when purchas-
to EVs and expand the current goal beyond 50% of
ing new BEVs and FCVs, helping to drive greater market
new state passenger vehicle purchases.
demand and potentially lowering costs across the market.
The same dynamic can work for infrastructure to support j The Legislature should pursue accelerative policies,
BEV charging and FCV fueling. including financial incentives, loan programs, fleet
targets and outreach campaigns for public and private
EVs offer significant operational savings over internal fleets. Priority for assistance should be given to
combustion engine vehicles, but the initial purchase price vehicle owner/operators. (See Appendix C for detailed
can be prohibitive for many buyers. To accelerate market fleet conversion recommendations.)
penetration of EVs, Washington should continue to provide
j The Legislature should enhance existing and restore
and expand financial incentives. In doing this, policy makers
expired electric vehicle and low carbon fuel incentives
should ensure equitable outcomes by prioritizing residents
and reduce disincentives. (See Appendix C for expanded
who cannot afford to purchase or finance a new car.
discussion of these incentives and disincentives.)
Rapidly accelerating EV adoption in the near-term will j The Legislature should provide resources for robust,
require acquainting as many consumers as possible comprehensive and accessible EV outreach and
with the features and advantages of EVs. At the same education. (See Appendix C for expanded discussion
time policies must address potential concerns such as of outreach and education opportunities.)
EV charging. Ziga Plahutar/iStock Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 65
D.
Reduce Energy
Consumption and
Emissions in the
Built Environment
1. Establish a Building 71
Decarbonization
Policy Framework
2. Maximize Energy 74
Efficiency and
Electrification in Buildings
3. Develop Plans for 81
the Long-term
Transition of the Natural
Gas Distribution System
66 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Downtown Seattle skyscraper. PURE • VIRTUAL
D. Reduce Energy
Consumption and Emissions
in the Built Environment
Buildings represent approximately one-fifth of Washing-
ton’s greenhouse gas emissions. This includes emissions
related to electric generation. The greatest portion of the
sector’s emissions come from the direct combustion of
natural gas and other fossil fuels in buildings for space
heating, water heating and cooking.
The deep decarbonization modeling analysis described in
Chapter B-Achieve the State’s Greenhouse Gas Emission
Limits identified a combination of energy efficiency and
electrification as the least-cost strategy to meet the state’s
greenhouse gas emissions limits for buildings. Consistent
with this finding, this chapter recommends policies and
actions required to implement an electrification strategy Rooftop gardens in Seattle, WA. Danita Delimont/Alamy Stock Photo
in Washington buildings.
A buildings electrification strategy presents a suite of sector to provide low-carbon building materials
opportunities and challenges. Increasing the adoption of and refrigerants and supports deploying distributed
energy efficiency and converting space and water heating energy resources, including renewables and load control
to high efficiency heat pumps requires refocusing energy
82 services, such as solar and battery storage systems.
efficiency policies to carbon reduction policies. Market Buildings will also serve as a distribution hub for electric
transformation efforts will be required to prepare contrac- vehicle charging.
tor infrastructure, pilot innovations and drive consumer
Decarbonizing the building sector requires the state to:
acceptance. Capital investments must be made with full
consideration of equity and distributional cost impacts. j Maximize energy efficiency
Building upgrades will need to be scheduled to avoid j Maximize electrification
housing or business disruptions.
j Optimize buildings as grid resources
The buildings sector relies on and creates opportunities j Minimize embodied carbon and
to support policies from other sections of the state energy refrigerant emissions
strategy. Decarbonizing buildings depends on the electric-
ity sector to provide clean electricity, requires the industrial
82
A description of the wide range of heat pump and chiller applications for buildings and district heating systems is included in Appendix D – Heat Pumps.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 67
The following three figures illustrate the challenge and
pace of implementing the Electrification Scenario in
buildings. Currently, electricity contributes 27% of building
energy greenhouse gas emissions, natural gas contributes
56% and a combination of diesel oil, propane and other
fuels contribute the remaining 17%. Implementing CETA
will reduce emissions from electricity generation to
carbon neutral by 2030. To meet the state’s greenhouse
gas reduction limits, emissions from gas in buildings
must decline 14% by 2030 and continue to decline at an
increasing rate through 2050 (Figure 18).
To meet the 2030 limits, high-efficiency electric strategies
will need be implemented at every available opportunity.
Ideally, this would mean every time fossil fuel or electric
resistance equipment is scheduled for renewal, it would be
replaced with high-efficiency electric equipment. All new
construction would need to be designed and constructed
Construction workers. Cineberg/iStock
to meet low-energy, zero-carbon standards.
FIGURE 18. ELECTRIFICATION SCENARIO: BUILDING SECTOR EMISSIONS BY FUEL TYPE
Building Emissions by Fuel Type
18
16
14
Emissions (MMT)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2020 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Coal Diesel Electricity Natural Gas Other-wood, lpg
Source: Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Report, December 11, 2020.
68 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Buildings represent approximately one-fifth
of Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions
with the greatest proportion coming from
direct combustion of natural gas and other
fossil fuels in buildings for space heating,
water heating and cooking.
Figure 19 demonstrates how the shift in equipment
sales in the Electrification Scenario drives energy and Attic insulation with Weather Assistance Program.
emission reductions in the decarbonization modeling Department of Commerce
described in Chapter B.
FIGURE 19. BUILDING EQUIPMENT SALES AND STOCK SHARES DRIVING ENERGY AND
EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS IN THE ELECTRIFICATION SCENARIO
Commercial Residential
Space Water Space Water
AC Lighting AC Lighting
Heating Heating Heating Heating
100%
80%
60%
Sales (%) 40%
20%
0%
100%
80%
Stock (%)
60%
40%
20%
0%
2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050
Electric Electric High Efficiency Fuel
Source: Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Report, December 11, 2020.
Electric Fuel
Electric HE
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 69
In Figure 20, the Electrification Scenario results in the Embodied carbon — carbon emissions attributed to
building sector reducing all energy loads by 26% in 2050 construction materials — accounts for 11% of annual
with energy efficiency actions. This will be a combination global emissions.83 Furthermore, Hydrofluorocarbon
of building improvements and conversion of existing (HFC) refrigerants are a very potent greenhouse gas.
electric resistance space and water heating to heat pump Building policies and programs must drive demand for
technologies. The loads currently served by fossil fuels lower carbon building materials and encourage the
must be converted to high efficiency electricity. This transition to less harmful refrigerants.
results in an increase in electricity requirements of 30%
compared to the Reference Scenario.
In addition to energy use, buildings contribute to A building decarbonization policy frame-
greenhouse gas emissions through the manufacturing
work must be fast-tracked to meet the 2030
of construction materials and carbon embedded in
greenhouse gas emissions limits.
refrigerants used in heat pumps and cooling systems.
FIGURE 20. SCALE AND PACE OF ENERGY USE REDUCTIONS REQUIRED TO MEET
ECONOMY-WIDE EMISSIONS LIMITS
Final Energy Demand in Buildings
TBtu
Reference Electrification Gas in Buildings
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Biomass Electricity Gaseous Fuels Liquid Fuels
Source: Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Report, December 11, 2020.
83
“Why the Building Sector?” (Architecture 2030, n.d.), https://architecture2030.org/buildings_problem_why/.
70 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
1. Establish a Building Decarbonization 1.1. Expand Building Decarbonization
Policy Framework Leadership Capacity
State government will need to increase its role in
Washington’s building policies need to directly address
energy planning, energy code development and program
the state’s greenhouse gas emissions limits. Over the last
implementation for the state to meet its greenhouse
40 years, Northwest states and utilities have developed a
gas reduction limits in the building sector. Much of the
robust regional power and energy efficiency planning and
leadership, research, analysis and planning for the current
delivery system. However, this system does not address
Northwest energy efficiency industry is conducted at
greenhouse gas emissions directly. The central elements
the regional level as part of the power planning process
of a building decarbonization policy framework must be
required by the 1980 Northwest Power Act.84
fast-tracked to meet the 2030 greenhouse gas emissions
limits. At the same time, institutional and market capacity
Energy efficiency in buildings is evaluated as a least-
development is needed to meet the 2050 limits.
cost resource rather than a decarbonization impera-
tive that must be accelerated. Washington state govern-
Building up manufacturing and retrofitting capacity to
ment will need to build off of the infrastructure currently
transform the building stock is a significant task requiring
supporting efficiency and provide the resources and
market predictability and longer lead times. It is critical
policies necessary to support decarbonization efforts
that the state adopts the basic structure of the building
in the building sector.
sector transition now, so policies, codes and standards
can be put in place on a timeline that provides predictabil-
ACTIONS
ity in the form of clear signals that building owners and
market forces can respond to. j Expand and clarify the roles and responsibilities for the
state energy office and other state agencies to provide
The state needs a new policy framework harmonizing analytical and planning capabilities that directly support
and delivering deep energy and greenhouse gas savings. building decarbonization.
Optimizing energy use, rather than just reducing it, will
j Work with regional organizations to align energy
decarbonize the building sector. This means switching
efficiency research, planning and market transforma-
away from programs based solely on reducing energy use
tion efforts. Create situational awareness with data
to programs that value outcomes based on energy utiliza-
resources supporting policy development and imple-
tion and greenhouse gas emissions limits. There needs
mentation plans.
to be a shift to standardized performance-based metrics
and labeling across all policies and programs. j The state should strategically amplify, fund and align
with efforts of existing organizations and alliances,
The transition to a more efficient, decarbonized building including workforce development and community
stock will succeed only if all Washingtonians have a stake organizations, ensuring the availability of necessary
in its success and the transition benefits all Washington financial, technical and human resources.
communities. Energy efficiency programs have focused
primarily on reducing energy use or costs, while in many
cases ignoring the co-benefits of improved resiliency,
public health and climate adaptability. Building electrifica-
tion and energy efficiency policies and programs should
enable equitable outcomes for low-income communi-
ties, including improvements in public health outcomes,
increases in energy affordability and making homes
more comfortable.
84
“Northwest Power Act” (Northwest Power and Conservation Council, n.d.), https://www.nwcouncil.org/reports/columbia-river-history/northwestpoweract.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 71
1.2. Develop a Detailed Washington Building Washington’s building decarbonization strategy must
Decarbonization Plan couple non-energy policy with energy policy, such as
This state energy strategy lays out a high-level roadmap energy efficiency mandates that protect against increases
and set of policy recommendations for the building sector. in rent leading to displacement, and support for workforce
The state needs to further develop a more detailed build- development efforts to ensure equitable access to career-
ing decarbonization plan. California’s Assembly Bill 3232 85 track jobs in and beyond building decarbonization.
requires the California Energy Commission to develop a
detailed plan to reduce building sector emissions by 50% ACTIONS
by 2030. The California plan must include detailed building j Develop a state decarbonization plan for buildings
characterization, segmentation, technical and fiscal analy- covering each part of the buildings sector in every
sis and set emissions reduction targets. region of the state.
Washington needs to develop a comparable plan with j Within the plan, establish clear energy utilization
the expectation that it will be reviewed periodically to targets and greenhouse gas emissions limits for
assure continued effectiveness. A wide-ranging group buildings by type, including interim and final targets.
of stakeholders will need to be brought into the effort to Include methods for incorporating campus or district
assure success. Planning should uniquely address the thermal distribution systems. Use these targets to
challenges that the clean energy transition poses for single guide adoption of mandatory energy codes, building
and multi-family residences, various sizes of commercial performance standards and utility program designs.
buildings, campus or district configurations, private and j Develop an electrification and heat pump program to
public owners, rural and urban locations, highly impacted
electrify the building sector using the least cost and
populations and low-income communities.
85
“Zero-Emissions Buildings and Sources of Heat Energy,” Pub. L. No. AB-3232 (2018), https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB3232.Zero-emissions
buildings and sources of heat energy (Chapter 373). https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB3232.
72 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Houseboat with solar on Lake Union, Seattle, WA. PhilAugustavo/iStock
most strategic approach, while addressing equity, across all buildings in the state. Utility planning and
consumer access and market capacity considerations. efficiency efforts also need to be structured to achieve
building performance energy utilization targets and
j Develop market transformation roadmaps to identify
greenhouse gas emissions limits.
the interventions required in technology, supply chain
delivery, contractor education and consumer marketing.
ACTIONS
j Explore increasing consumer and business financing j Structure performance-based mandates as the criti-
options. For example, develop residential PACE financ- cal path for each building segment to meet the state’s
ing programs similar to the recently adopted CPACER low-energy and zero-carbon building targets. Utility
option.86 Consider on-bill financing administered by programs and market transformation efforts should
utilities or other mechanisms. then be required to directly align with and support
j The plan should be developed with an inclusive public the success of the mandates in drawing down energy
process addressing specific needs of communities, use and emissions.
with focus on equity and inclusion. j Adopt policies and programs for determining baselines,
j The plan should be developed in consultation with attribution, energy and greenhouse gas emission reduc-
industry professionals to assure plans address tech- tions and the determination of least-cost approaches.
nical, design and construction applicability specific to j Develop structures that assure funding allocations
building end uses. respond to the needs of low-income and other vulnera-
ble customers.
1.3. Align Utility Ratepayer Programs around j Identify utility regulation or utility performance
Decarbonization Performance Outcomes incentives required to assure outcomes.
Utilities will play a significant role in taking building
decarbonization to scale. Utilities work within an existing
energy and conservation planning framework and have 1.4. Accelerate Adoption of Low Greenhouse Gas
programmatic mechanisms for reducing energy use. Emissions Refrigerants and Equipment
By virtue of their customer base, they have direct In addition to energy use, buildings contribute to green-
relationships with every residential and commercial house gas emissions through the manufacturing of
building owner in the state. construction materials as well as refrigerants used in heat
pumps and cooling systems. Manufacturing techniques
Energy conservation potential is developed in the context have been developed to control or reduce these emissions.
of each utility resource plan. Conservation is chosen Businesses can now manufacture concrete with reduced
when it provides the least-cost resource. The social cost environmental impacts. Cross-laminated timber provides
of carbon has recently been added as a consideration a zero-carbon wood product that can be used in build-
during this planning, increasing the value of conservation ing construction. Regulations to control and eventually
compared with alternate approaches, which can result in eliminate HFCs are being developed and implemented.87
continued greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, a global initiative to reduce the impacts of
refrigerants has been adopted under the Montreal
The existing framework may lead to increased utility partic- Protocol,88 which continues to spur chemical and equip-
ipation in conservation acquisition, although these impacts ment manufacturers to develop products that use less
will not be uniform across all utility service territories or harmful constituents.
86
“Concerning Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy and Resilience.,” Pub. L. No. HB 2405 (2020), https://app.leg.wa.gov/billsummary?BillNumber=2405&Year=2019.
87
Chapter 173-443 WAC.
88
“About Montreal Protocol,” UN Environment Programme, n.d., https://www.unenvironment.org/ozonaction/who-we-are/about-montreal-protocol.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 73
Washington adopted regulations to reduce the impacts 2. Maximize Energy Efficiency and
of refrigeration chemicals through HB 1112 (2019). 89
Electrification in Buildings
The statute requires less damaging HFCs, or suitable Washington’s core strategy for meeting its greenhouse
substitutes to be used in various equipment applications, gas limits must focus on retiring and replacing equip-
and implements refrigerant management processes. ment in buildings with high-efficiency electric systems and
Relatedly, the Washington State Building Code Council achieving deep energy efficiency savings to reduce elec-
has voted to adopt a reference standard that will allow tric loads. The existing utility programs, energy code and
the use of A2L refrigerants in refrigeration and air-con- building energy performance standards provide a good
ditioning including the use in occupied dwellings.90 The foundation for this transition. However, these policies
scope of these efforts is limited but encouraging. As new and programs cannot deliver the increased sales share
equipment is developed and made available, Washington’s of high-efficiency technologies and electrification needed
laws and rules will need to take advantage of new opportu- to meet the 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas emissions
nities while continuing to manage refrigeration systems. reduction limits.
ACTIONS To meet these limits, Washington will need a comprehen-
j The State Building Code Council should adopt the sive suite of revamped and new policies that put the
most recent editions of national equipment standards building sector on a path to meet the 2030 and 2050
allowing installation of low emissions refrigerants limits. Consideration should be given to the challenges
in buildings. posed for single-family, multifamily, various sizes of
commercial buildings, campus or district, private and
j The State Energy Office should incorporate low emis-
public ownership, rural and urban locations and highly
sions refrigeration opportunities as they become avail-
impacted populations. To increase the resiliency of the
able as part of market transformation efforts.
building stock for occupants, energy policy must be
j The State Board of Community and Technical Colleges coupled with affordable housing, public health and
should incorporate application of state regulations for anti-displacement policies.
refrigerant management in industry-related coursework.
The board should support training programs related This strategy flows from the proposed building decarbon-
to new equipment as they become available. Capacity ization policy framework described above. It is designed
building and training for minority- and women-owned to reduce the risk of locking in carbon-emitting technolo-
construction businesses and contractors should be gies and practices that will hold back Washington’s ability
prioritized for development. to meet greenhouse gas limits. The strategy includes the
following components to support the development of a
robust policy and market for each building type and size:
Washington’s energy code and performance performance disclosure, mandates, complementary
standards should be revised or adopted utility programs, accelerated market transformation
and financing.
to incorporate the state’s greenhouse gas
emissions limits. Energy efficiency and electrification programs need to
be focused on metrics, such as public health outcomes
to track progress toward increasing equitable outcomes,
as there is a known gap in the data available regarding
the efficacy of building electrification efforts for low-
income communities.
89
“Hydrofluorocarbon Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” Pub. L. No. House Bill 1112 (2019), http://lawfilesext.leg.wa.gov/biennium/2019-20/Pdf/Bills/Session%20Laws/House/1112-S2.
SL.pdf?q=20201129212221.
90
Alex Ayers, “WA Code Council Paves the Way for Use of A2L Refrigerants,” November 13, 2019, https://blog.hardinet.org/wa-code-council-refrigerants.
74 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
2.1. Strengthen and Expand Energy Codes and Standards
Washington’s energy code and performance standards
should be revised or adopted to incorporate the state’s
greenhouse gas emissions limits. The Washington State
Energy Code91 regulates the construction of new residen-
tial and nonresidential buildings, additions and major
renovations and establishes equipment replacement
efficiency criteria.
The state building energy performance standard 92 (BPS)
implements a strategic energy management program to
improve the energy performance of existing nonresiden-
tial buildings greater than 50,000 square feet in floor area.
Both the energy code and the BPS are structured primar- Zero-net energy townhomes in Issaquah, WA. Chuck Murray
ily as energy efficiency standards rather than as explicit
carbon emissions standards. Washington has not adopted
a residential building performance standard.
Codes are an important element of providing broad
j Continue to evaluate the role of net zero energy
benefits to all housing types and are the least-cost
buildings94 as a resource in the context of building
approach to implementing energy efficiency and carbon
and DER policies.
reduction in buildings. Codes and standards will also be
important elements of deploying EV charging infrastruc- j Continue to evaluate the implementation of standards
ture and distributed energy resources (DER) technologies. that lead to increased use of building materials with
The state building code already includes requirements low embodied carbon emissions.
to develop EV charging infrastructure, including in apart- j Expand the scope of the BPS to include buildings with
ments93 and incentives for renewable energy generation. less than 50,000 square feet with a stepped path to low
But other DER features, such as load control, are not energy and zero carbon by 2050. Modify the BPS with
similarly incentivized. provisions specific to smaller buildings.
ACTIONS j Adopt a mandatory residential performance standard
to scale up the residential retrofit market. Include
j The Legislature should revise the energy code to require
comprehensive equity and workforce provisions for
the state Building Code Council to adopt zero-carbon
both rental and owner-occupied homes and identify
and all-electric construction and efficiency mandates
the unique opportunities and challenges faced by all
no later than the 2027 code, fully achieving incremen-
residential segments including single family, multifamily
tal improvements each code cycle from 2021 to 2027.
and manufactured housing.
Funding for technical development, code implementa-
tion and evaluation of progress should be provided. j Dissemination of information should be operationalized
at the state level through training programs.
j Consider additional energy code provisions to expand
deployment of DER technologies, such as on-site
generation and utility-integrated load control.
91
Chapter 19.27a.020 RCW.
92
Chapter 19.27a.210 RCW.
93
Chapter 51-50-0427 WAC, Section 429.
94
Net zero energy buildings use very little energy and include renewable onsite generation resulting in annual net zero energy consumption on site.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 75
2.2. Lead by Example with Public Capital Projects
and Energy Management
The state capital budget provides funding for new
construction, major renovations and minor works projects
in the public sector. This includes projects for state, local
and Tribal government, higher education and K-12 schools,
low-income housing and nonprofit institutions. Given their
long service life, the allocation of capital funds for these
public projects should include requirements for planning,
construction and operation consistent with achieving the
state’s greenhouse gas emissions limits and build on exist-
ing efforts to lead by example.
Participation of multiple state agencies and coordination
with local governments would support the transition.
The State Efficiency and Environmental Performance
Technician measuring air conditioning equipment. (SEEP) Office 96 coordinates with partners across the state
government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce
energy costs and eliminate solid waste and toxic mate-
j To ensure affordable housing units in Washington are rials from state agency operations. The Energy Savings
able to comply with the building performance disclosure Performance Contracting program at the Department of
policies, there should be flexibility in compliance time- Enterprise Services and financing provided by the State
lines and targeted education and training programs in Treasurer’s Office support state and local government
multiple languages. efficiency programs. The Housing Trust Fund and Office
of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI) manage
j Capacity building and training for minority- and
allocations to low-income housing and K-12 education.
women-owned construction businesses and contrac-
tors should be prioritized during policy development. ACTIONS
Design training programs for energy audits with incen-
j Update Office of Financial Management requirements
tives or requirements to hire from low-income and
for capital budget requests to include electrification in
frontline communities.
all applicable projects.
j Customize performance standards for affordable
j Require all new public buildings funded by the capital
housing and rent-stabilized units to reduce displace-
budget to be all-electric and zero-carbon.
ment and enable streamlined compliance. Integrate
benchmarking requirements into qualified allocation j Require existing public buildings to minimize building
plans (QAPs) that determine low-income housing tax energy loads and convert carbon-based fuel systems
credit (LIHTC) allocations. 95 to all electric high-efficiency systems.
j Ensure inclusion of local and Tribal government repre- j Require implementation of standards that lead to
sentatives during the process of developing the energy increased use of building materials with low embodied
code and building performance standards framework carbon emissions.
and strategy.
95
Andrea Krukowski and Andrew Burr, “Energy Transparency in the Multifamily Housing Sector: Assessing Benchmarking and Disclosure Policy” (Institute for Market Transformation, 2012).
96
SEEP was initiated by EO 20-01. For program details see: https://www.commerce.wa.gov/growing-the-economy/energy/state-efficiency-and-environmental-performance-seep/.
76 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
j Transition campus district heating and cooling systems gic energy management has also been deployed. These
to zero-carbon by reducing total heating demand, strategies are structured to achieve incremental savings
reducing or eliminating peak demands, converting compared to the code or existing building baseline.
district steam to hot water or electrifying central Utilities can continue to drive and accelerate achieving
heating systems. building-specific energy and greenhouse gas emission
limits to be developed further during the detailed energy
j Implement robust energy management and operations
planning described above in section 1.2.
and maintenance programs for each public building or
site consistent with the state BPS and to work towards
ACTIONS
low or zero greenhouse gas emissions.
j Utility building efficiency programs should be designed
j Prioritize decarbonization of public buildings in to achieve energy utilization and greenhouse gas emis-
low-income communities, specifically public schools sion limits as is already recognized in utility conserva-
and hospitals. tion potential assessments and conservation program
j Ensure funding is available for building efficiency implementation plans.
projects in all communities. j The Utilities and Transportation Commission (UTC),
j Continue to coordinate state efforts through SEEP State Energy Office and interested participants should
and consider additional support to align all projects develop targets and processes to support utility efforts,
funded through the state capital budget with the including revisions of utility conservation planning and
state’s greenhouse gas emissions limits. cost recovery mechanisms.
j Ensure decarbonization for rural public buildings
through funding allocations.
2.4. Create and Fund a High Efficiency
Electrification Program
To reach building electrification targets, an electrifica-
2.3. Align Utility Programs with State Mandates
tion program should be developed and implemented.
This strategy would expand the share of Washington’s
The program should provide funding generated from all
building stock covered by state mandates before 2030.
building energy end uses, including electric, gas and liquid
State mandates consist of the energy code and the BPS,
petroleum through a public benefits charge, carbon fee or
including performance disclosure requirements. The
economy-wide cap and trade program. Funds would be
mandates will be structured to progressively reduce
allocated to end-use customers who install high-efficiency
energy use and carbon in buildings with the ultimate goal
heat pumps for space and water heating, convert gas
of low-energy, zero-carbon buildings by 2050.
cooking to electric cooking and/or choose other identified
electrification opportunities.
Utility programs and regulation must be similarly struc-
tured to reduce energy and emissions consistent with
Current utility efficiency programs are often siloed by
meeting the 2030 and subsequent greenhouse gas emis-
fuel source and may be constrained by regulations that
sions limits. The energy code should be strengthened to
limit funding cross-sector fuel conversions. Liquid petro-
hit low-energy zero-carbon. This must be done in the three
leum and transportation-only electric and gas custom-
remaining three-year code cycles (2021, 2024 and 2027).
ers fall outside of the scope of utility efficiency programs.
A crosscutting electrification program would overcome
Utilities and the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance have
these constraints and could be operated as an indepen-
been key partners in encouraging technology develop-
dent customer distribution plan, or through existing
ment and adoption to improve energy efficiency. Strate-
utility programs.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 77
The program should include mechanisms to ensure The number of Washington households participating in
participation by low-income households, based on input the state’s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP)
from organizations that represent their interests and each year represents just a fraction of eligible households.
communities. Implementation should involve utilities, According to the 2019 Home Energy Affordability Gap
market transformation experts and heating, ventilation data, there are 749,112 households living at or below the
and air conditioning (HVAC) professionals. income qualification threshold to receive WAP services.97
Public funding at existing levels is insufficient to provide
A program that implements high-efficiency electric the scale and scope of services needed.
space and water heating will impact most building energy
customers in the state, given that the majority of electric Commerce administers the state’s WAP services with
heating still uses electric resistance heating equipment. funding from U.S. Department of Energy’s WAP, the
Gas and oil heating and hot water systems will need to U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Low
be replaced by heat pumps. Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), the
Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and the state-
ACTIONS funded Weatherization Plus Health Matchmaker Program.
j The State Energy Office should develop and implement These four funding sources are highly leveraged with
a high-efficiency electrification program to incentivize utility conservation funds from many, but not all, utilities
adoption of heat pump technology in existing residen- in the state.
tial and nonresidential buildings, including marketing,
Services provided by WAP, while important to reduce
workforce development and certification and equitable
energy burden, are insufficient to address the statewide
distribution of incentives.
needs from deferred maintenance in affordable housing
j In anticipation of increased workforce demand, the stock and the negative health impacts of substandard
State Board of Community and Technical Colleges housing. The program is not currently structured to allow
should develop a heat pump training and certification for broad electrification, or to increase access to renew-
program for contemporary heat pump installation able energy resources that would lower household energy
and maintenance. Training will need to be broadly burden and energy inefficiency.98
distributed throughout the state and designed to
assure opportunities are provided to highly impacted The state has made two important changes to broaden
populations. the scope of the weatherization program in recent years. In
2015, House Bill 172099 allowed funding to include healthy
housing improvements. In 2017, Senate Bill 5647100
2.5. Broaden the Scope and Scale of the Low-Income created a home rehabilitation revolving loan program for
Household Energy Programs low-income owner-occupied households in rural commu-
Low-income households bear a disproportionate housing nities. There is more work remaining to expand the scope
and energy cost burden relative to other households. and funding scale for these critical services.
Existing sources of energy assistance, including both
federally-funded and utility-funded assistance, do not In addition to a lack of access to energy assistance
adequately address the home energy affordability gap and weatherization programs, low-income and rural
in Washington. communities often lack access to high-quality broadband
services, which acts as a barrier to participation in energy
efficiency benefits.
97
“Home Energy Affordability Gap” (Fisher, Sheehan & Colton: Public Finance & General Economics, n.d.), http://www.homeenergyaffordabilitygap.com/03a_affordabilityData.html.
98
“2019 Biennial Energy Report: Issues, Analysis and Updates” (Washington State Department of Commerce, December 2018), https://www.commerce.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/
COMMERCE-Biennial-Energy.pdf.
99
“HB 1720: Concerning Healthy Housing” (2015), https://app.leg.wa.gov/billsummary?year=2015&billnumber=1720&initiative=false.
100
“SB 5647: Creating a Low-Income Home Rehabilitation Revolving Loan Program” (2017), https://app.leg.wa.gov/billsummary/?BillNumber=5647&Year=2017&Initiative=false.
78 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
ACTIONS
j Increase funding for low-income weatherization to
address a minimum 10% of eligible households annu-
ally and continue decoupling the program’s eligibility
requirements from federal requirements to increase
flexibility, allow for re-weatherization and include
households that fall just above the income threshold
to receive low-income services.
j Facilitate meaningful participation by highly impacted
populations to explore solutions to address historic
barriers to accessing the limited resources currently
available for weatherization.
j Conduct ongoing engagement with Tribal Govern-
ments to explore approaches to systematically expand
services to and within Tribal communities. Invest in and
leverage workforce capacity within these communities.
j Address the breadth of need for deferred mainte-
nance to make households ready for weatheriza- Digging for broadband.
tion by expanding the home rehabilitation revolving
loan program statewide and beyond owner-occupied
single-family homes. This expansion should include
Tribal communities, rental housing and manufactured j Expand funding for the state’s successful Weatheriza-
housing. tion Plus Health program as part of a broader strategy
to reduce energy burden and improve health outcomes
j Prioritize services to underserved households within
for low-income households impacted by the COVID-19
highly impacted populations, including rental housing,
pandemic.
multifamily housing, non-electrically heated housing
and high-energy burden households. j The Legislature should provide universal access to
high quality broadband to enable grid integration of
j Provide innovative financing models that can be
appliances and equipment, optimizing buildings and
used to provide low-income households the access
managing load.
to capital needed to decarbonize their homes.
Low-income and rural communities
lack access to high-quality broadband
services, which prevents participation
in energy efficiency benefits.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 79
2.6. Create Market Transformation in Support of efficiency market transformation efforts in the region
Eliminating Greenhouse Gas Emissions for more than two decades. This organization could be
Market transformation is the strategic process of interven- a primary collaborator.
ing in a market to create lasting change. 101
As shown in
the deep decarbonization modeling, meeting 2030 build- Developing a state market transformation effort is
ing energy and emissions reductions goals will require a proposed to reflect the electrification outcomes recom-
shift to 100% sales of high-efficiency electric equipment mended in this strategy. Market transformation must
by 2030. High-efficiency electric space and water heat- explicitly focus on decarbonization strategies to meet the
ing equipment currently holds a relativity small share of greenhouse gas emissions limits. The project objective
market sales compared to fossil and electric resistance should ensure that each state mandate has a clear and
equipment, which needs to change, as does market adop- funded market transformation plan for building market
tion of other products and practices that improve the capacity and removing technical and financial barriers.
energy efficiency of buildings. In addition, the strategy should identify and create the
numerous collaborations required to implement a market
Efforts to increase market penetration include interven- transformation effort and a clear funding plan.
tions, such as product standards, pilot programs, training
for design, sales and installation contractors and incen- ACTIONS
tives for end users. In some cases, market transformation j The state should develop a market transformation team
requires earlier interventions that bring new products to within the State Energy Office. The office will be charged
the market. Market transformation efforts bring compe- with guiding the collaborations required to implement a
tence, scale and competition to the market, delivering qual- market transformation intervention.
ity services at least cost.
j Ensure market transformation programs have carve-
The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, which is funded outs and direct funding for low- and moderate- income
by the region’s gas and electric utilities, has led the energy households and Tribal nations.
101
“NEEA Standard Definitions,” NEEA, n.d., https://neea.org/definitions.
80 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Worker applying silicone sealant to window. AndreyPopov/iStock
3. Develop Plans for the Long-term Transition of use of synthetic fuels and biofuels in transportation.
the Natural Gas Distribution System Starting in 2045, fossil gas is replaced with biogas in the
Most of the greenhouse gas emissions in residential and buildings sector. The projected overall cost is higher in
commercial buildings are from combustion of natural the scenario that retains gas pipelines as a means of
gas, so emissions reductions in this sector raise import- delivering energy to residential and commercial custom-
ant questions about the future of the natural gas distribu- ers. Under either scenario, the amount of fossil natural
tion system. Fossil natural gas accounts for 80% of the gas delivered in 2050 is about 90% lower than in the
non-electric emissions in the residential and commercial Reference Scenario.
sectors.102 The uses account for 63% of the non-electric
These two scenarios present a balanced analysis of the
consumption of fossil natural gas.103
options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil
As Figure 18 illustrates, the mix of energy used in build- natural gas. The model evaluates alternative solutions
ings is expected to shift dramatically as the state reduces using the best available information about costs and tech-
its greenhouse gas emissions with greater use of clean nology and it looks at all sectors of the economy together
electricity in place of fossil natural gas. This could result in to arrive at an overall result. The results indicate that
a substantial change in the role of the natural gas distri- conversion from fossil natural gas to electricity results
bution system that currently provides energy to 1.2 million in lower costs. The analysis assumes energy efficiency
residential and 107,000 commercial customers.104 Four improvements by technology across all scenarios are
natural gas distribution utilities deliver fossil natural gas the same, where newly installed appliances are highly
to these customers, who use the fuel for space heat- efficient. With these efficiency assumptions, the Gas in
ing, water heating, cooking and a variety of commercial Buildings Scenario yields a 45% reduction in gas consump-
purposes. Emissions from natural gas used by residential tion compared to the Reference Scenario.
and commercial customers account for 7.2% of the
These two scenarios are also consistent in their consider-
state’s total emissions.105
ation of the cost of investments already made in distri-
The deep decarbonization modeling analysis considered bution system infrastructure. These investments are
two scenarios for reducing emissions in the buildings substantial: The four distribution companies have invested
sector to meet the state’s overall emissions limits. The $6.2 billion in gas utility infrastructure and the undepreci-
Electrification Scenario assumes gas-consuming appli- ated portion is $4 billion.107 The latter amount represents
ances in buildings are replaced with electric equipment as an average investment of about $3,000 per customer.
they are retired. The Gas in Buildings Scenario would retain The deep decarbonization analysis does not assume that
use of pipeline gas to heat air and water in buildings, main- these costs could be avoided under any scenario. They are
taining use of gas in appliances at the levels they are at sunk costs that exist under every scenario.
today. Both scenarios assume the same levels of appliance
The 2021 State Energy Strategy does not call for any
efficiency by technology.106
specific outcome concerning the long-term use of the
To retain use of fossil natural gas and still meet the emis- existing gas distribution system. It does, however, iden-
sions targets, the Gas in Buildings Scenario makes greater tify benefits in shifting over time from fossil natural gas
102
Figure 7, “Washington State Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory: 1990-2015” (Washington State Department of Ecology, December 2018), https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/publications/
documents/1802043.pdf.
103
“Natural Gas Consumption by End Use,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, n.d., https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_swa_a.htm.
104
“Number of Natural Gas Customers,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, n.d., https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_num_a_EPG0_VN5_Count_a.htm.
105
Figure 7, “Washington State Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory: 1990-2015.”
106
The initial specification of the Gas in Buildings Scenario reflected a lower level of energy efficiency, consistent with historical differences in energy efficiency programs between electric and
gas utilities. Electric utilities in Washington achieved efficiency savings, as a percent of delivered energy, five times the rate achieved by natural gas utilities. See tables 7 and 9 in: Weston
Berg et al., “The 2019 State Energy Efficiency Scorecard” (American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), 2019), https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/
researchreports/u1908.pdf.
107
Calculated using reports submitted to the UTC and available at: https://www.utc.wa.gov/regulatedIndustries/utilities/energy/Pages/CompanyAnnualReports.aspx.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 81
to electricity. This approach appears to serve the state’s A limit on growth would provide the industry, regulators
consumers and businesses better than one where non- and customers the time needed to clarify public policy
fossil gas is manufactured and delivered by pipeline to concerning the use of natural gas and develop a long-term
end users. Retaining gas as an energy form requires more transformation approach that is consistent with the state’s
overall energy, both the energy used in the gas production climate and economic policies. A transition plan could be
process and the energy lost in combustion at the point of developed as part of the utility’s integrated resource plan
use. Delaying the transition from fossil gas also requires and should consider multiple approaches to emissions
greater and more costly emissions reductions in the trans- reduction, including:
portation sector to meet the overall emissions limits.
j Financing, incentives and other mechanisms to protect
The near-term actions suggested in this strategy would members of highly impacted populations.
result in a gradual transition, over two to three decades,
j Energy efficiency measures evaluated to reflect the cost
from fossil natural gas as a fuel source. The natural gas
of non-fossil gas in the future.
industry has advocated for an approach closer to the Gas
in Buildings Scenario, and there is opportunity in the near j Conversion from gas to electric when equipment is
term for the industry to pursue actions consistent with replaced, including geographically targeted conversions.
its preferred approach: j Limitations on service area expansion and line
extension.
j Increase energy efficiency to match or exceed the levels
assumed in the Gas in Buildings Scenario. This would j Rate structures to align customer decisions with
include both the efficiency of end-use equipment and expected future costs of pipeline gas.
the efficiency of the building stock.
j Use of hydrogen and renewable natural gas to reduce
j Reduce the greenhouse gas content of its product by the greenhouse gas content of the gas product deliv-
incorporating hydrogen and renewable natural gas, ered to customers.
using the authority provided by the Legislature two
j Measures to support gas company workforce transition.
years ago.108
j Accelerated depreciation of gas distribution plants to
j Invest in research and development of green hydrogen
reduce stranded assets.
and other clean fuels, with the aim of improving the
financial viability of gas as a non-emitting energy form.
ACTIONS
j Proactively support customers converting to zero- j Natural gas distribution companies should increase
emission heating options, such as solar thermal and energy efficiency and use of hydrogen and renewable
geothermal. natural gas to achieve near-term reductions in green-
house gas emissions from fossil natural gas.
These actions make sense under either an electrification
approach or a long-term approach that uses non-fossil j The Legislature and the UTC should ensure that the
gas, and they would help test the feasibility of decarboniz- state’s climate policy and emissions limits are reflected
ing pipeline gas as a long-term solution. in the regulation of natural gas companies and explore
legislative and regulatory actions to restrict growth of
In the meantime, the Legislature should consider whether the natural gas system and the use of fossil natural gas
to restrict growth of the natural gas system and the use of where zero-emission options are available.
fossil natural gas where zero-emission options are avail-
j Natural gas distribution companies should work with
able. Residential and commercial natural gas customer
regulators and stakeholders to develop comprehensive
growth has slowed in the past decade, but this trend could
and equitable plans to transition from the use of fossil
reverse absent policy action.
natural gas.
108
Chapter 80.28.390 RCW.
82 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Battery pack for storage at the Decatur Island Community
Solar Project. Orcas Power & Light Cooperative Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 83
E.
Industrial
Transformation
and Workforce
Development
1. Build a Dataset and 85
and Technologies
to Decarbonize the
Industrial Sector
2. Establish a 92
Technology-Neutral
Regulatory Framework
3. Develop and Implement 95
a Coordinated Clean
Energy Industrial Policy
4. Support Clean Energy 97
Research, Innovation and
Deployment
5. Expand Policies 104
to Consider
Consumption-based
Emissions
6. Leverage the 106
Economic Transition
to Create New Inclusive,
Living-Wage Jobs
Boeing assembly plant in Renton, WA.
84 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy REUTERS / Alamy Stock Photo
E. Industrial Transformation
and Workforce Development
In pursuing a wholistic approach to industrial decarboniza-
tion, Washington can focus on areas in which it enjoys a
strong competitive advantage. With low-carbon electricity,
a highly skilled workforce and established advanced manu-
facturing industries, Washington can gain early traction in
the global race to reduce the carbon intensity of products
and materials.
A successful clean industrial energy policy is one that
supports Washington’s entire industrial sector and
that takes advantage of the state’s existing assets and
strengths. Industrial transformation requires better infor-
mation about how industry uses energy, coordination of
climate policy with other jurisdictions, more attention to
industrial policy and deliberate efforts to develop the Energy efficient factory built housing. Chuck Murray
skills of the state’s workforce.
Every industrial facility and business has some
1. Build a Dataset and Technologies to
potential to increase energy efficiency and reduce
Decarbonize the Industrial Sector greenhouse gas emissions.
Washington’s industrial sector accounts for 28% of
the state’s retail electricity demand109 and about 28% of Industry creates greenhouse gas emissions in three ways.
the state’s greenhouse gas emissions. 110
The highest Direct emissions are the result of fossil fuel combustion
energy-consuming industries are: for process heat, steam and hot water, on-site electric
generation or space heating and are the most dominant.
j Agriculture
Indirect emissions derive from grid electricity consumption.
j Cement & Glass Process emissions come from the materials in the indus-
j Computing Services trial processes themselves.
j Food Processing Examples of process emissions in Washington include
j Forest Products fluorinated gases used to etch semiconductors; CO2
released from calcium carbonate during cement manu-
j Manufacturing/Aerospace
facture; and nitrous oxide emissions from degradation
j Petroleum Refining of fertilizers used in agriculture. These three sources of
greenhouse gas — direct, indirect and process — are
interdependent. Managing them presents challenges
unique to each industry.
109
“Washington Electricity Profile 2019, Table 8. Retail Sales, Revenue, and Average Retail Price by Sector, 1990 through 2019,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, accessed December 1,
2020, https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/Washington/.
110
Washington State Department of Ecology Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 85
Solar power system on the new Parks, Recreation and Senior Center building in Pullman, Washington. Funded in part by a grant from Commerce’s
Energy Efficiency and Solar Grant program. Department of Commerce
The industrial sector presents a dual opportunity for the j Transforming Industry: Paths to Industrial Decarbon-
clean energy transition: (1) efficiency and greenhouse ization in the United States (American Council for
gas reduction strategies for large-scale industrial energy an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE).112 Qualitative
consumers, and (2) development of clean technology descriptions of options without quantification of targets or
and domestic job growth. Balancing these two, sometimes potential that includes some policy discussion.
competing, opportunities will require creativity
j Manufacturing Agenda: A National Blueprint for Clean
and commitment.
Technology Manufacturing Leadership and Industrial
Industrial decarbonization roadmaps that can inform Transformation (BlueGreen Alliance).113 A U.S.-focused
Washington’s efforts include: policy analysis that includes substantial consideration of
equity concerns but no technical analysis.
j Decarbonization of the industrial sectors: the
j Optionality, Flexibility & Innovation: Pathways
next frontier (McKinsey & Co.)111 An examination that
for Deep Decarbonization in California (Energy
treats industrial decarbonization on a global scale and
Futures Initiative).114 Economy-wide study on California
details technology options in four focus sectors — cement,
with one chapter focused on the industrial sector
steel, ammonia and ethylene — with qualitative descriptions
that offers quantitative pathways to targets, on an
of options without quantification of targets or potential.
“illustrative” level.
111
Arnout de Pee et al., “Decarbonization of the Industrial Sectors: The Next Frontier: How Industry Can Move toward a Low-Carbon Future” (McKinsey & Co., 2018), https://www.mckinsey.
com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Sustainability/Our%20Insights/How%20industry%20can%20move%20toward%20a%20low%20carbon%20future/Decarbonization-of-
industrial-sectors-The-next-frontier.pdf.
112
Andrew Whitlock, Neal Elliott, and Edward Rightor, “Transforming Industry: Paths to Industrial Decarbonization in the United States” (American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
(ACEEE), 2020).
113
“Manufacturing Agenda: A National Blueprint for Clean Technology Manufacturing Leadership and Industrial Transformation” (BlueGreen Alliance, 2020).
114
Ernest J. Moniz, “Optionality, Flexibility & Innovation: Pathways for Deep Decarbonization in California” (Energy Futures Initiative (EFI), 2019).
86 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
The deep decarbonization analysis did not include a Every industrial facility and business
detailed, process-specific model of industrial sector has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. Instead, the model assumed that the industrial
emissions and use energy more efficiently.
sector would increase energy efficiency by 1% each year
and by 2050 could convert to electricity for 50% of process
heating, 100% of machine drives and 75% of building heat- energy use in the industrial sector is 33% lower in the
ing and cooling. The result is a substantial reduction in Electrification Scenario than in the Reference Scenario by
total energy consumption, compared with the Reference 2050. Electricity starts at a 21% share of industrial energy
Scenario and a substantial change in the mix of energy demand in 2020, increasing to 36% by 2050 in the Electrifi-
toward electricity as depicted in Figure 21. cation Scenario, while gaseous fuels drop from a share of
38% in 2020 to 18% in 2050.
Even in the industrial sector, where heat is often the most
important form of energy, electrification will be critical. To meet the state’s greenhouse gas reduction limits,
In the deep decarbonization modeling results, electric- Washington needs to develop a quantitative, industrial
ity replaces liquid and gaseous fossil fuels. Total final decarbonization roadmap.
FIGURE 21 – FUELS IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR IN THE REFERENCE AND
ELECTRIFICATION CASES
Industrial Energy Demand
Reference Electrification
600
500
400
TBtu 300
200
100
0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year Year
Biomass Biomass Steam Steam
Pipeline Gas Coal Pipeline Gas Coal
Electricity Electricity Gasoline Gasoline
Still Gas Other Still Gas Other
Hydrogen Diesel Other Gaseous Fuels
Hydrogen
Municipal Solid Waste Other Petroleum Diesel
Petroleum Coke Other Gaseous Fuels
Municipal Solid Waste Other Petroleum Petroleum Coke
Source: Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Report, December 11, 2020.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 87
1.1. Build the Supporting Datasets Aluminum and steel production (metals) accounted
In terms of the value of goods produced, Washington’s for another 8% of greenhouse gas emissions, while
industrial sector is dominated by aerospace and data- lumber mills (wood products), food production and
processing activities, which account for over 54% of state petroleum and natural gas systems account for another
industrial GDP.115 These industries rely mostly on electric- 4 to 5% each. These facilities produce greenhouse gas
ity and directly emit only a small fraction of the state’s emissions from direct combustion of fossil fuels for heat
emissions. (Figure 22) and on-site electric generation, as well as greenhouse gas
emissions from industrial processes, such as CO2 from
A handful of smaller industries contribute most of calcination of cement and perfluorocarbons (PFCs) from
Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions. As shown in aluminum production.
Figure 22 and Table 3, refineries and pulp and paper
facilities together accounted for about two-thirds of
Washington’s 2018 emissions reported by major facilities
Electrification is a powerful tool
to Ecology, while those industries contribute less than for reducing industrial emissions.
10% of the state’s industrial production. Most of the emis-
sions from pulp and paper facilities are due to combustion
of biomass, considered less climatically-intensive than
fossil fuel combustion because new carbon sequestration
may be occurring on the harvested land.
FIGURE 22-DISTRIBUTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM FACILITIES THAT
EMITTED MORE THAN 10,000 tCO2e/YEAR IN 2018, BY SUBSECTOR
35% Pulp and Paper
33% Refineries
8% Metals
Distribution of
6% Wood Products
greenhouse gas
emissions 4% Food Production
from facilities that 4% Petroleum and Natural Gas Systems
emitted more than
10,000 tCO2e/year in 3% Minerals
2018, 3% Manufacturing
by subsector.
2% Chemicals
2% Government
Most emissions from the Pulp and Paper and Wood Products subsectors are biogenic. The Metals subsector is dominated by the Alcoa Ferndale
aluminum smelter, which is entering curtailment this year. The Government subsector consists almost entirely of steam plants operated by the federal
government and by state institutions of higher education. (subsectors Transportation Fuel Supplier, Power Plants and Waste are excluded)
115
As shown in Table 3, in calendar year 2018 the industrial sectors (including agriculture) had a combined gross product of $84.2 billion, of which $45.7 billion were in the aerospace and data
processing sectors.
88 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
TABLE 3. WASHINGTON'S 12 LARGEST INDUSTRIAL SECTORS, IN ORDER OF 2018
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
REMI industrial sector GDP, mm$
Aerospace product and parts manufacturing 29,591
Data processing, hosting, related services 16,072
Petroleum and coal products manufacturing 5,452
Farm 4,263
Navigational, measuring, electromedical and control instruments mfg. 2,102
Beverage manufacturing 1,364
Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufacturing 1,227
Support activities for agriculture and forestry 1,140
Pulp, paper and paperboard mills 912
Architectural and structural metals manufacturing 858
Plastics product manufacturing 837
Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing 826
Source: REMI Outputs from Economic Impacts Modeling
ACTIONS
j The Department of Ecology should increase the Washington could become a world leader
subsector breakdown in its industrial sector greenhouse in the clean energy economy, while
gas inventory. Both combustion and process emissions
reducing the environmental impacts of
need to be broken down with the same taxonomy,
so that data can be parsed meaningfully for policy-
existing industries in the state.
making.116
j The Department of Commerce should develop and
publish detailed industrial sector energy data (follow-
ing a coordinated taxonomy with Ecology) using federal
Energy Information Administration forms data, or any
new state reporting requirements.
116
In particular, industrial sector emissions from combustion of fossil fuels must be disaggregated from the residential and commercial sectors.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 89
Worker wrapping an HVAC air duct with foil tape. 1905HKN/iStock
1.2 Assess the Potential for Industrial Sector Ample opportunity for expansion of electric consumption
Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures exists, including:
There are four decarbonization approaches for the
j Fuel-switching boilers allowing an industrial
industrial sector:
installation to generate steam either with a fossil fuel
ENERGY EFFICIENCY has been and continues to be the or with electricity;
highest form of industrial environmental performance.
j Microwave or radiofrequency using the same
It delivers reduced energy costs, lower direct emissions
technology consumers are familiar with in microwave
from on-site energy generation and lower emissions
ovens, to more efficiently dry high-water-content
from grid electric generators. Energy efficiency includes
feedstocks or products;
lighting, building insulation and heating, ventilation and
air conditioning (HVAC) solutions. In the industrial sector j Heat pumps, microwave or infrared heat delivering
specifically, energy efficiency also includes efficient low-temperature process heat more efficiently
generation of heat and process efficiency, such as than steam;
high-temperature waste heat recovery, low-temperature j Membrane separation technologies displacing boiling
waste heat recovery and smart manufacturing,117
and distillation with the much lower-energy approach
variable-speed drives118 and compressed air efficiency.119
of forcing a liquid against a sufficiently fine membrane,
especially in petroleum refining;
ELECTRIFICATION is a particularly powerful tool for indus-
trial decarbonization in Washington. As the state’s utilities j Ultrasound-assisted, electromagnetic or ohmic drying
comply with Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA), the displacing conventional oven-drying especially in
electricity supply will gradually become cleaner. According food processing; and
to the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
j Pulsed electric field, ultra-sonification, pulsed light,
(ACEEE), typically only about 15% of the energy consump-
UV or microwave pasteurization/sterilization displacing
tion in the more energy-intensive industries is electricity.120
conventional pasteurization and steam autoclave
sterilization, especially in food processing.
117
Ellen McKewen, “What Is Smart Manufacturing? (Part 1A),” CMTC Manufacturing Blog (blog), accessed November 1, 2020, https://www.cmtc.com/blog/
what-is-smart-manufacturing-part-1a-of-6.
118
“Variable Speed Drives,” accessed November 1, 2020, https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/variable-speed-drives.
119
“Compressed Air Systems,” Energy.gov, accessed November 1, 2020, https://www.energy.gov/eere/amo/compressed-air-systems.
120
Whitlock, Elliott, and Rightor, “Transforming Industry: Paths to Industrial Decarbonization in the United States.”
90 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
COMBINED HEAT AND POWER (CHP). Most industrial the emissions point, there are at least three paths to treat
facilities need significant amounts of both electricity CO2 that mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to a greater
and heat. CHP is a method for providing both electric- or lesser degree:
ity and heat on site for industrial facilities. It is the use of
low-grade heat exhausted by combustion-fired electric GEOLOGICAL STORAGE. This is the conventional vision
generation, for industrial purposes.121 for carbon capture and storage (CCS), in which CO2 stack
emissions are stored in underground geological forma-
HEAT SHARING involves the transportation of heat tions. Initial investigations by the United State Geological
among multiple facilities. Heat is more difficult to trans- Survey show meaningful potential for geological storage in
port than electricity, however it is not impossible. The Washington.122 In addition, the Pacific Northwest National
recent trend toward increased use of hot water or other Laboratory’s research is showing previously unrealized
liquid carriers rather than steam is enabling longer trans- potential for carbon storage in the flood basalts common
port distances and reducing energy demand. But even in Washington’s landscape.123
if steam is the carrier, deliberate colocation of facilities
makes transport both physically and economically viable. CARBON REUSE. CO2 captured from smokestacks can
Heat generation benefits greatly from economies of be used as a source for carbon used to produce synthetic
scale, so the economic equation can favor heat sharing fuels. The vehicles or other energy consumers that even-
more than is often realized. tually combust the synthetic fuels still end up emitting CO2
to the atmosphere, but the carbon is used twice — rather
The suite of commercially viable technologies for than once — before being released. The climate benefit
increasing efficiency or reducing carbon intensity in the of the double use comes from the displacement of virgin
industrial sector is well understood and well documented. fossil fuels that the vehicles would otherwise have used.
What is not well understood is the potential to lower
energy consumption or displace direct fossil fuel combus- BUILT ENVIRONMENT. Carbon in the captured CO2
tion with electricity. can also be used as a component of novel construction
materials that sequester the carbon in buildings, roads or
ACTION other components of the built environment. This approach
offers sequestration similar to geological storage, although
j Inventory the potential associated with different
the average duration of storage in construction materials
technologies to provide a basis for the calculation of
might be lower than in the case of geological storage. Use
appropriate decarbonization targets for industry.
in the built environment can encourage displacement of
more emissions-intensive materials.
1.3. Lay the Groundwork for Carbon Capture,
ACTIONS
Use and Storage
One feature common among industrial facilities is smoke- j Continue support for research in Washington’s
stacks. These fixed emission point sources are potential geological storage potential for CO2.
collection points to capture carbon that would otherwise j Incorporate carbon capture, use and storage technolo-
enter the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas. Captured at gies in the portfolio of Centralized Technical Assistance.
121
Exhaust heat can also be used for additional electric generation, in a combined cycle power plant (usually a combined cycle combustion turbine, “CCCT”). However, we are treating combined
cycle power plants as an electric sector technology, not an industrial sector technology.
122
“National Assessment of Geologic Carbon Dioxide Storage Resources - Results,” U.S. Geological Survey, Circular, 2013, https://doi.org/10.3133/cir1386.
123
B. Peter McGrail et al., “Potential for Carbon Dioxide Sequestration in Flood Basalts: SEQUESTRATION IN FLOOD BASALTS,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 111, no. B12
(December 2006): n/a-n/a, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004169.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 91
2. Establish a Technology-Neutral An effective LCFS would encourage
Regulatory Framework clean fuels production in the state and
As an alternative to prescriptive, process-specific actions achieve parity with similar standards
to address industrial emissions, a better approach may
in Oregon and California.
be to pursue one or more technology-neutral regula-
tory frameworks aimed squarely at the primary desired
outcome of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Two
ties of diesel. An LCFS could include off-road diesel,
such mechanisms are a low carbon fuel standard (LCFS)
aviation fuel and/or marine fuels to expand its impact
to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels used in industrial
on industrial sector emissions.
and motor vehicle applications and a regulatory program
to reduce emissions from stationary sources, similar to An LCFS could be structured so that revenue from
the Department of Ecology’s Clean Air Rule (CAR). credit sales fund zero emission vehicle charging and
fueling infrastructure and improve the economics of
A third, more comprehensive mechanism would be an
in-state carbon capture and clean fuels production.
economy-wide cap and trade program. Cap and trade is
Biofuels and potentially hydrogen and electrofuels could
a proven strategy for reducing emissions in the indus-
provide the state valuable flexibility in reducing transporta-
trial sector. It has been used in many countries around
tion emissions from difficult-to-decarbonize activities
the world and in California, Quebec and to a more limited
such as aviation, long-distance or heavy-duty trucking
degree in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI),
and maritime shipping.
which includes 10 Northeast U.S. states.
An effective LCFS would encourage clean fuels produc-
tion in the state and achieve parity with similar standards
2.1. Adopt a Low Carbon Fuels Standard
in Oregon and California. In addition, an LCFS can be
California, Oregon and British Columbia have all adopted
designed to recognize other environmental or economic
relatively similar LCFS policies.124, 125, 126, 127 An LCFS
benefits that result from some clean fuels. These co-
displaces conventional gasoline and diesel fuels with
benefits may include the reduction of wildfire risk when
lower-carbon substitutes. An LCFS could help drive decar-
using waste biomass from forest management, the use of
bonization across all segments of the transportation
feedstocks that limit impacts on food crops and the use
sector, as well as foster the development of clean fuels
of co-products for biofuel manufacturing.128
needed for important Washington industries.
ACTION
Vehicle fleets and light equipment at industrial facilities
consume some gasoline, while vehicle fleets, off-road j Enact and implement an LCFS to establish a market
equipment and backup generators use significant quanti- and funding mechanism for clean fuels production.
124
California Air Resources Board, “Low Carbon Fuel Standard,” November 16, 2015, http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2015/lcfs2015/lcfsfinalregorder.pdf.California Air Resources Board.
125
Chapter 754, Oregon Laws 2009, An Act, HB 2186, Relating to greenhouse gas emissions; and declaring an emergency.
126
Consolidated Statutes of British Columbia, Chapter 16, Greenhouse Gas Reduction (Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirements) Act.
127
Julie Witcover, “Pacific Coast Collaborative Low Carbon/Clean Fuel Standard Program Comparison” (UC Davis PIEEE, June 2018).
128
R. Divyabharathi and P. Subramanian, “Hydrothermal Liquefaction of Paddy Straw for Biocrude Production,” Materials Today: Proceedings, March 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
matpr.2020.02.390.
92 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
2.2. Regulatory Tools to Measure, Mitigate and
Reduce Emissions from Industrial Sources
In 2016, the Department of Ecology adopted the CAR
to address the major sources of greenhouse gases.129
The proposed rule adopted emission standards to cap and
reduce greenhouse gas emissions from significant in-state
stationary sources, petroleum product producers, import-
ers and distributors and natural gas distributors operat-
ing within Washington. Covered entities were required to
reduce emissions 1.7% each year.
In March 2018, the Thurston County Superior Court ruled Port of Seattle. Clean Energy Transition Institute
that parts of the CAR were invalid, preventing implementa-
tion of the rule. Compliance with the rule was suspended.
On Jan. 16, 2020, the Washington State Supreme Court ACTION
ruled that the portions of the rule that applied to stationary
j Washington should continue to explore regulatory
sources were valid, but that the portions that applied
mechanisms to measure, mitigate and reduce green-
to indirect sources, such as natural gas distributors and
house gas emissions from the operation and siting of
fuel suppliers, were invalid. The Supreme Court sent the
significant in-state stationary sources, petroleum prod-
case back to the lower court to determine how to separate
uct producers, importers and distributors of natural gas.
the rule.
The original CAR was based on greenhouse gas limits in
2.3 Address Competitive Issues Raised by
place prior to 2020 (25% below 1990 levels by 2035). A new
Emissions Policies
rule focused on stationary sources and designed to meet
While there are many advantages to technology-neutral
the newly adopted 2050 limit could result in a more strin-
regulatory approaches, they also raise a concern about
gent obligation than the original CAR, potentially requiring
competitive effects on firms that serve markets outside
annual reductions of 3.5% per year. The Department of
the state. State-level emissions limits or fees may result in
Ecology has not yet identified next steps for the CAR.
“leakage,” where apparent emissions reductions in one state
In a separate action and under explicit direction by the are offset by emissions increases in other states or coun-
Governor, the Department of Ecology has begun rulemak- tries. The industries that are most susceptible to leakage
ing to strengthen and standardize the consideration of effects are referred to as energy-intensive, trade-exposed
climate change risks, vulnerability and impacts in environ- industries (EITEs). Examples of EITE industries include pulp
mental assessments for major projects with significant and paper, cement, glass and metals manufacturing.
environmental impacts. The rule will establish uniform
The appropriate response to concern about leakage is not
methods, processes, procedures, protocols or criteria that
necessarily to excuse EITEs from emissions reductions,
ensure a comprehensive assessment and quantification
but to structure state policy so leakage risk is anticipated
of direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions resulting
and addressed. First, the state should anchor its indus-
from a project.
trial emissions policies in a detailed understanding of the
manufacturing activity in Washington. Recent work for the
Oregon Carbon Policy Office provides a good example.130
129
“Clean Air Rule,” Washington State Department of Ecology, n.d., https://ecology.wa.gov/Air-Climate/Climate-change/Greenhouse-gases/Reducing-greenhouse-gases/Clean-Air-Rule.
130
“Oregon Sectoral Competitiveness under Carbon Pricing” (Vivid Economics, 2018), https://digital.osl.state.or.us/islandora/object/osl%3A676559.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 93
Without data on energy costs, manufacturing processes geographically large policy environment promotes
and competitive conditions, the state might relax emis- least-cost solutions and accommodates niche markets,
sions reduction requirements for a firm or industry that experimental policies or staged policy implementation.
would not actually present a leakage risk. It is possible
through engineering and economic analysis to measure Third, Washington should consider incentives for
the actual risk of leakage for individual industries and industrial efficiency improvements. Well-designed incen-
plants. The results are likely to change over time. The tives would enhance the competitiveness of manufactur-
state should undertake this analysis as part of an ongoing ing firms located in the state and reduce leakage risk.
regulatory program for direct emitters.
ACTIONS
Second, Washington should adopt industrial emissions j Develop and maintain data on processes, markets and
reduction policies that are consistent with other juris- costs of manufacturing activities in Washington and use
dictions. Leakage occurs when inconsistent regulations this information to identify EITEs and craft responsive
create an incentive to shift manufacturing activity to a less emissions reduction policies.
regulated jurisdiction. Strong inter-state partnerships or
j Maintain and strengthen Washington’s engagement
other multi-jurisdiction approaches can help avoid EITE
with the Pacific Coast Collaborative, with a continued
flight, emissions leakage and job loss to other states.
focus on advancing coordinated climate and industrial
Washington regularly collaborates with Oregon, California policies along the West Coast.
and British Columbia through the Pacific Coast Collabora- j Increase incentives and support for industrial efficiency,
tive and other forums. A uniform policy framework among emission control and clean technology upgrades, includ-
like-minded jurisdictions, such as was developed under ing consideration of an industrial transformation bank,
the Western Climate Initiative,131 continues to be the best incorporating strong labor and equity standards to fund
approach to minimize negative economic and environ- the retooling and upgrading of Washington’s EITEs and
mental effects among jurisdictions. Just as a geograph- low-carbon fuel pilot projects.
ically large energy economy creates market efficiency, a
131
“Program Design and Implementation,” Western Climate Initiative, accessed November 1, 2020, https://wci-inc.org/our-work/program-design-and-implementation.
Logging truck on Snow Creek Road, Quilcene, WA.
94 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Clean Energy Transition Institute
3. Develop and Implement a Coordinated In some cases, the development of industries has created
Clean Energy Industrial Policy sacrifice zones, geographic areas that have been perma-
Emissions from the industrial sector add a complex layer nently impaired by environmental damage or economic
to an already challenging task for policy makers as they disinvestment, often through locally unwanted or unusable
seek to promote economic vitality, business development land. It is important that Washington’s policies ensure that
and high-quality jobs. Climate policy must be incorporated rapid decarbonization does not come at the risk of creat-
into a coherent industrial policy. This approach has ing sacrifice zones. In developing a clean energy industrial
proven successful in countries around the world.132, 133, 134 policy, business leaders, community representatives and
With an electric grid considerably cleaner than most labor unions must be engaged from the outset in mapping
states in the U.S., technological expertise, manufacturing the priorities of those impacted. The policy must promote
history, fuel-refining infrastructure and biomass resources, labor standards and shared benefits.
Washington has an opportunity to become a world leader
The state should lead with an equitable governance policy
in the clean energy economy, while at the same time
approach among key constituents to design a process to
reducing the environmental impacts of existing industries
achieve decarbonization goals expeditiously and maximize
in the state.
benefits while minimizing risks for people who live or work
Washington possesses significant advantages to attract where a project or manufacturing hub may be located and
the manufacturing supply chains of solar, storage and decreasing the likelihood that industries and jobs will leave
microelectronic technologies that will be key to driving Washington for other states.
our low carbon economy, particularly as it relates to
ACTION
polysilicon-based technologies.
j Develop a coordinated clean energy industrial policy
framework that supports the ability of industry to help
3.1. Adopt a Comprehensive Clean Energy Plan decarbonize the buildings, transportation and electricity
for Industrial Policy sectors and catalyzes regional decarbonization.
Industrial policy is a matched set of tools and policies:
procurement, workforce development, infrastructure
development, tax incentives and research and develop- 3.2 Create a Structure to Implement a Clean
ment. Comprehensive industrial policy for climate and Industrial Policy
energy goals requires coordinated alignment and aggrega- The success of the Washington 2021 State Energy
tion of interventions across different levels of government Strategy and especially its industrial sector provisions,
and between the public and private sectors, leveraging will depend on continued and coordinated participa-
the strengths of agencies, jurisdictions and sectors. tion across state agencies. Strengthened state agency
leadership could feature more frequent energy planning,
Each country, state, or region’s industrial policy generally increased data gathering authority or increased
emerges organically from existing industry clusters that regulatory authority.
are the natural fit for the jurisdiction’s resources, culture
and history. New industrial opportunities build on underly- States in the U.S., including Washington, have not typically
ing competitive advantages in a region and these competi- engaged in frequent energy planning, increased data gath-
tive advantages may change over time. Thus, an industrial ering and increased regulatory authority to steward indus-
ecosystem is not static and designing a low-carbon trial policy. Getting serious about industrial policy means
future for industry will take patience, focus and coordi- making a clear home for it, within the state’s current
nated policy.
132
“Investment and New Industrial Policies: World Investment Report 2018” (UNCTAD, Division of Investment, 2018).
133
Michael Landesmann and Roman Stollinger, “The European Union’s Industrial Policy: What Are the Main Challenges?” (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, January
2020).
134
Todd Tucker, “Industrial Policy and Planning: What It Is and How to Do It Better” (Roosevelt Institute, July 2019), https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/RI_Industrial-
Policy-and-Planning-201707.pdf.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 95
organization of agencies. The Office of Economic Develop- 3.3 Provide Centralized Technical Assistance
ment and Competitiveness (OEDC) within Department of The most effective policy framework for decarboniza-
Commerce is the obvious location in which to place indus- tion will be one that includes both a downward pressure
trial policy stewardship. on emissions and an upward lift for the technologies that
can achieve it. Knowledge about efficiency, electrification,
Greater attention to industrial energy planning would process emissions reduction and carbon capture and
improve the state’s influence over the pathways Washing- storage needs to be broadened so that a wide spectrum
ton takes to achieving its greenhouse gas reduction limits of industrial entities have access. Since Washington
and industrial policy targets. The current process with contains a few entities within each given major industrial
many years between energy planning exercises means subsector, partnering regionally with multiple states to
either that each plan eventually becomes perceived as provide centralized technical assistance could be an
old and therefore ignored; or, if each strategy is taken effective approach.
seriously, that Washington locks itself into approaches
or policies that may no longer be the best choice in the A few existing programs can serve as examples. Wash-
context of changing technologies, politics, or econom- ington’s Department of Ecology has a program offering
ics as the decade goes by. More frequent planning would efficiency services to manufacturing and industrial facili-
enable a nimbler approach to the state’s energy policy ties, the primary directives of which are efficiency, waste
in the industrial sector. reduction and reducing regulatory overhead for small- and
medium-sized plants. The Washington State University
An important benefit of developing a more climate-aware (WSU) Energy Program’s industrial services group helps
industrial policy is that it could lead to better processes manufacturers adopt efficient technologies, productiv-
for siting industrial facilities, perhaps using a dedicated, ity improvements and best practices by integrating and
multi-agency entity similar to the Energy Facility Site customizing products and services and provides technical
Evaluation Council (EFSEC). assistance, assessments, training and project planning.
ACTIONS The New York State Energy Research & Development
j The Legislature should establish responsibility for Authority manages five industrial programs that combine
clean energy industrial policy within state government, a focus on efficiency with energy management to increase
with robust data collection and regular planning for competitive advantages and resiliency. Three that align
the industrial sector. particularly well with Washington’s industrial energy
policy offer strategic energy management, flexible tech-
j As part of its industrial policy, the Legislature should
nical assistance and on-site energy manager services.135
consider a review of potential tools to streamline permit-
Wisconsin’s Focus on Energy program also offers support
ting and siting of clean industrial activities that protect
to industrial buildings through energy and local advisors
communities from disproportionate impacts.
on energy-saving equipment, technology and renewable
energy options to reduce energy consumption and lower
Greater attention to industrial energy energy bills.136
planning is required to improve the
ACTION
state’s ability to achieve its greenhouse
Expand the Department of Ecology’s Efficiency Services
gas reduction limits.
j
for Manufacturing and Industrial Facilities program and
the WSU Energy Program’s Industrial Efficiency team,
incorporating best practices from other jurisdictions.
135
“NYSERDA Industrial Programs,” New York State, n.d., https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/All-Programs/Programs/Industrial-Programs.
136
“Wisconsin’s Focus on Energy,” Focus on Energy: Partnering with Wisconsin Utilities, n.d., https://focusonenergy.com/.
96 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
4. Support Clean Energy Research,
Innovation and Deployment
As Washington embraces the clean energy transition,
leaders can build on the state’s foundations in aerospace,
maritime, information and communications technology
(particularly data center infrastructure, artificial intelligence
and machine learning), grid modernization and decarbon-
izing buildings. Support can be enlisted from Washington’s
world-class manufacturers, technologists and academic
research organizations, including those in regional
comprehensive universities across the state.
State policies can catalyze activities that align with
Dr. Lisa Brown touring the Clean Energy Institute, October 2019.
sustainability, climate and carbon investment funds being
Department of Commerce
established and policies being adopted by the private
sector, including Microsoft, Amazon and other sector
regulatory environment and government financial support
leaders. All this will help the state to more readily develop
to reduce the significant risks associated with bringing
the technology and innovation required to meet the state,
new technologies to market.
national and global climate goals, offer opportunities for
economic and job growth and strengthen technology
As discussed in Chapter C-Use Energy More Efficiently
supply chains. Collectively, these efforts can help ensure
and Decarbonize Transportation Energy, even under the
our existing and future industries have access to the tools
aggressive Electrification Scenario, a large number of
needed to reduce the carbon intensity of their operations.
internal combustion engines will remain on the road in
2030. This means there will be an immediate need to
As the state advances towards a net-zero emissions
produce low-carbon liquid fuels to replace fossil fuels.
future, gas and liquid fuels are expected to continue to
The industrial sector and especially Washington’s robust
be part of the energy mix for some time to come — both
petroleum refining industry, could play an important role
as a limited source for electricity generation and for use
in meeting the demand for those fuels during the next
in specific transportation, building and industrial applica-
decade and beyond.
tions. There is a need to develop and deploy technologies
that can economically provide decarbonized fuels.
Petroleum fuels are hydrocarbons, molecules built primar-
ily from carbon and hydrogen and the technologies avail-
New technologies being researched, developed and
able to synthesize petroleum substitutes are well known.
deployed include “green hydrogen”137 from electrolysis
The petroleum industry in Washington has the equipment
powered by renewable or non-emitting electricity; carbon
and the know-how to become a leading innovator and
capture, use and storage which can “decarbonize” conven-
producer of synthetic fuels.138, 139 Washington’s 2030 target
tional fossil fuels used for heat or electricity; and synthetic
is an excellent catalyst for the local refineries to become
fuels produced by combining hydrogen and non-fossil
world leaders in low-carbon fuel manufacture. While the
sources of carbon. These technologies offer the poten-
technologies to synthesize hydrocarbons are well known,
tial to contribute to a decarbonized future, but require
the sources of the carbon and hydrogen atoms used to
continued investment in research and development, pilot
do so could be defining elements of Washington’s clean
programs and commercialization, as well as a favorable
energy paradigm.
137
“Hydrogen,” BP, n.d., https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/demand-by-fuel/hydrogen.html.
138
A.A. Lappas, S. Bezergianni, and I.A. Vasalos, “Production of Biofuels via Co-Processing in Conventional Refining Processes,” Catalysis Today 145, no. 1–2 (July 15, 2009): 55–62, https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.cattod.2008.07.001.
139
Susan van Dyk et al., “Potential Synergies of Drop‐in Biofuel Production with Further Co‐processing at Oil Refineries,” Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining 13, no. 3 (May 2019): 760–75,
https://doi.org/10.1002/bbb.1974.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 97
energy dollars. In the long term, the CEF has a structure
that can help support the innovation and infrastructure
adaptation necessary to make our state’s clean energy
transition. With its strategic goal of “developing, demon-
strating and deploying clean energy technologies that
save energy and reduce energy costs, reduce harmful air
emissions, or otherwise increase energy independence
for the state,” the CEF can continue to be a tool to build on
Washington’s clean energy policies and sectoral strengths,
ensure costs and benefits are equitably distributed and
help the state rebuild our economy.
ACTION
The Legislature and the Department of Commerce should
continue to support the CEF and deploy the resources
Maritime Blue foil ferry. Department of Commerce consistent with the recommendations of the Energy and
Climate Policy Advisory Committee in the Report to the
Legislature submitted in Dec. 2020.141
4.1. Continue to Invest in the Clean Energy Fund
Washington’s Clean Energy Fund (CEF) was conceived
in 2013 to support “projects that provide a benefit to the 4.2. Cluster around Centers of Research, Development
public through development, demonstration and deploy- and Entrepreneurship
ment of clean energy technologies that save energy and Washington is renowned for its technical innovation,
reduce energy costs, reduce harmful air emissions or particularly in the aerospace and information industries.
otherwise increase energy independence for the state.” 140
The state is home to the Pacific Northwest National Labo-
The CEF has received appropriations through a series of ratory, one of 17 national energy laboratories. The Clean
biennial budgets up to and including appropriations in Tech Alliance represents over 1,100 members facilitat-
the 2019 capital budget. ing the growth of clean technology companies and jobs
through education, research and services. Washington’s
To date, through awards of $118 million, Washington’s
large and regional research universities also are a ready
CEF investments have successfully leveraged over
source of innovation to support an industrial policy based
$400 million to support innovative projects including grid
on clean energy.
modernization and storage; energy efficiency and renew-
able energy projects (wind, solar, bioenergy) on farms and Washington’s Maritime Blue Strategy was created in 2019
in commercial buildings and homes; and deployment of to accelerate innovation and create the nation’s most
electrification charging infrastructure. The funding has sustainable maritime industry by 2050.
resulted in energy savings, emission reductions and job
creation throughout the energy supply chain, positioning The Maritime Blue strategy is focused on shifting towards
the state as a leader in clean technology development. a thriving, low-carbon industry; becoming a global inno-
vation hub; leading the nation in efficient, clean and safe
In the immediate future, policy makers' investments in the working waterfronts; supporting a 21st century workforce;
CEF represent a proven opportunity for economic devel- and establishing a world-class maritime cluster.142
opment and position Washington to leverage federal clean
140
Section 1074(1), Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 5035, 2013. https://app.leg.wa.gov/billsummary?BillNumber=5035&Year=2013&Initiative=false
141
“Energy and Climate Policy Advisory Committee,” Washington State Department of Commerce, accessed November 1, 2020, http://www.commerce.wa.gov/growing-the-economy/energy/
energy-and-climate-policy-advisory-committee/.
142
“Washington Maritime Blue Launches Ambitious Plan for Economic Growth, Jobs, Ocean Health,” January 8, 2019, https://www.commerce.wa.gov/news-releases/growing-the-economy/
washington-maritime-blue-launches-ambitious-plan-for-economic-growth-jobs-ocean-health/.
98 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
As a “cluster organization,”143 Maritime Blue gathers
THE COMPONENTS OF A CLUSTER
businesses, public entities, community organizations,
researchers and training institutions together to build a
low-carbon marine industry that remains economically
competitive. To date, Maritime Blue has assembled 55
industry members along with four research institutions,
14 organizational partners and 22 public sector partners
and leveraged $6.5 million in public funding for program- Funding & Public Policy Regulation &
ming and projects and $250,000 in private sponsorships. Training Incentives
It has garnered $32 million in private capital and $6 million
in business sales related to the first cohort of 11 start-ups.
This innovative project has successfully demonstrated
a public-private partnership to develop economic advances Academia Industry
for decarbonization of an industry. The example could Research Engagement
Institute
serve as a framework from which to decarbonize
the state’s other industries.
In addition to nurturing industry clusters, there are
opportunities for the state government to partner with
Demonstration &
individual companies. This can result in carbon reduction Commercialization
to help the state achieve its greenhouse gas emission
limits, but also creates a forum for the state to learn
from private sector initiatives.
THE ROLE OF A CLUSTER
Microsoft, for example, has established an investment
fund supported by the company’s internal carbon tax Communication & marketing
to provide funding for early stage clean energy technolo- Funding & investment
gies.144 Alaska Airlines plans to reduce carbon emissions Knowledge & innovation collaboration
with flights powered by sustainable aviation fuel in key Incubation and commercialization
routes.145 Skanska, a construction firm, pledged to elimi-
Joint industry projects (JIP)
nate emissions from both direct operations and its supply
Cross-cluster collaboration
chain.146 Amazon has pledged to be zero net carbon by
Strategy review
2040 and announced an initiative to electrify its delivery
fleet.147 PACCAR, a manufacturer of trucks, has invested
in improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions,
water consumption and waste at its manufacturing
facilities, in combination with disclosing its greenhouse
gas emissions.148
143
“World Class Cluster,” Washington Maritime Blue, n.d., http://maritimeblue.org/cluster-2/.
144
David Roberts, “Microsoft’s Astonishing Climate Change Goals, Explained,” Vox, 2020, http://www.voxx.com/energy-and-environment/2020/7/30/21336777/microsoft-climate-change-goals-
negative-emissions-technologies?mbid=&bxid=5ec7510be36b.
145
“Alaska Airlines and Microsoft Sign Partnership to Reduce Carbon Emissions with Flights Powered by Sustainable Aviation Fuel in Key Routes,” Microsoft News Center (blog), October 22,
2020, https://news.microsoft.com/2020/10/22/alaska-airlines-and-microsoft-sign-partnership-to-reduce-carbon-emissions-with-flights-powered-by-sustainable-aviation-fuel-in-key-routes/.
146
“Skanska UK Pledges Zero Emissions by 2045, Leads Construction Industry in Climate Commitments,” Mighty Earth, May 19, 2019, https://www.mightyearth.org/
skanska-uk-pledges-zero-emissions-by-2045-leads-construction-industry-in-climate-commitments/.
147
Mary Meisenzahl, “Amazon Just Revealed Its First Electric Delivery van of a Planned 100,000-Strong EV Fleet — See How It Was Designed,” Business Insider, October 8, 2020, https://www.
businessinsider.com/amazon-creating-fleet-of-electric-delivery-vehicles-rivian-2020-2.
148
“Paccar: Sustainability,” n.d., https://www.paccar.com/about-us/environmental-and-social/environmental/.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 99
ACTIONS government, the aviation industry, research institutions
and biomass feedstock producers to advance sustainable
j Replicate Maritime Blue for other centers of research
aviation biofuels in Washington.
and development to accelerate and support emerging
low-carbon industrial opportunities. Today, WSU co-leads the Center of Excellence for Alterna-
j Create a knowledge center on public-private tive Jet Fuels (ASCENT)151 with the Massachusetts Insti-
collaboration to help firms make and meet broader tute of Technology to create science-based solutions for
climate commitments through capacity building the aviation industry’s most difficult environmental chal-
and knowledge sharing. lenges. ASCENT released a February 2020 study152 looking
at the availability of sustainable biomass in the region.
j Expand programs to incentivize research and market
development for commercial low-carbon fuels; heat ACTIONS
pumps; embodied carbon materials; direct air capture
j Explore the viability of creating an electric aviation clus-
(DAC); carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS);
ter to implement Washington’s Green Economy report153
electrification technologies; grid modernization;
recommendations to leverage the expertise of the
artificial intelligence and machine learning; and
University of Washington’s Clean Energy Institute (CEI)
circular economy processes.
to persuade international electric aircraft manufacturers
to develop electric aircraft in Washington.
4.3. Continue Washington’s Leadership in j Create a business environment where Washington
Sustainable Aviation is seen as a center of excellence for electric aviation.
The ports of Seattle, Spokane and Portland, along with
j Support building a testing facility in Washington
The Boeing Company, Alaska Airlines and Climate
for electric aircraft.
Solutions were early out of the gate in creating the
Sustainable Aviation Fuels Northwest (SAFN) initiative,149 j Invest in upgraded infrastructure for testing
the first regional assessment of feedstock pathways for electric aircraft.
producing sustainable jet fuel in the U.S.
j Continue to support the efforts of ASCENT and the
SAFN led to two large USDA-funded advanced biofuels Sustainable Aviation Biofuels Work Group to coordinate
research consortia in Washington, Advanced Biofuels research, development and deployment of low-carbon
Northwest (University of Washington) and the North- liquid aviation fuels.
west Advanced Renewables Alliance (Washington State
University), both of which dealt extensively with feed- Washington should build on its successful
stock and conversion supply chain analysis. Until 2018, partnerships working towards decarboniza-
the Legislature funded the Sustainable Aviation Biofu- tion of the aviation and maritime industries.
els Workgroup,150 which facilitated conversation among
149
“Sustainable Aviation Fuels Northwest,” Climate Solutions: Accelerating the Transition to our Clean Energy Future, n.d., https://www.climatesolutions.org/
sustainable-aviation-fuels-northwest.
150
“Sustainable Aviation Biofuels Workgroup” (Washington State Legislature, January 26, 2018), https://apps.leg.wa.gov/ReportsToTheLegislature/Home/GetPDF?fileName=Sustainable%20
Aviation%20Biofuels%202017%20Update%20Final_435d458c-b62c-4bdd-868d-8f9e4f0576b5.pdf.
151
“Ascent - The Aviation Sustainability Center,” Ascent, n.d., https://ascent.aero/.
152
Port of Seattle and Washington State University, “Potential Northwest Regional Feedstock and Production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel,” 2020, https://www.portseattle.org/sites/default/
files/2020-07/PofSeattleWSU2019_final.pdf.
153
“Washington’s Green Economy” (Washington State Department of Commerce, 2020), https://deptofcommerce.app.box.com/s/jpy44m0svj05sfxp8353khsceq42lfss.
100 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
4.4. Explore a New Hydrogen Economy industry that can enable large-scale use of renewable
Twenty years ago, a vision for the “hydrogen economy” and low-carbon hydrogen as a replacement for fossil fuels
took hold, in which a nontoxic, odorless, gaseous fuel in industry and hard-to-decarbonize sectors, an energy
speeds fuel-cell-powered “hypercars.” 154
While develop- carrier and form of energy storage and a feedstock for
ment has occurred more slowly than expected, hydrogen synthetic liquid fuels.155
can potentially play an important role in reducing
greenhouse gas emissions from the industrial sector. ACTION
j Commerce should work with utilities, industrial firms,
Hydrogen is not an energy source but an energy carrier.
federal agencies and other stakeholders to accelerate
Hydrogen requires energy to produce and like electricity,
the development of hydrogen production and should
it is only as clean as the feedstock used to produce it.
encourage pilot projects and research activities.
Hydrogen is useful as a directly consumed power source
for fuel cells and it can be used for hydrocarbon synthe-
sis to produce the liquid fuels to achieve the state’s 2030
4.5. Continue to Assess Biogenic Feedstocks as
greenhouse gas reduction limits. Hydrogen can also be a Foundational Resource
used to promote the manufacture of more novel liquid Fossil fuels are the result of geologic sequestration of
energy carriers, such as ammonia or hydrazine. ancient vegetation. Plants growing today also contain
carbon and hydrogen. Whether the state’s liquid and
Green hydrogen production is an important manufacturing
gaseous fuels are derived from fossil sources, dedicated
opportunity for Washington industry. Petroleum refineries
crops, organic waste streams or other biogenic sources,
already include systems to produce and handle hydro-
or are synthetic fuels produced from any number of non-
gen, so are likely starting points for increasing production.
fossil sources of carbon and hydrogen, they result in the
Washington can learn from the European Union’s hydro-
same two combustion products: carbon dioxide and water.
gen strategy, which calls for building up a hydrogen
154
Amory B. Lovins and David R. Cramer, “Hypercars, Hydrogen and the Automotive Transition,” International Journal of Vehicle Design 35, no. 1/2 (2004): 50, https://doi.org/10.1504/
IJVD.2004.004364.
155
European Commission, “A Hydrogen Strategy for a Climate-Neutral Europe,” 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/hydrogen_strategy.pdf.
Hydrogen-powered passenger vehicle. audioundwerbung/iStock Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 101
FIGURE 23. PRIMARY BIOENERGY PATHWAYS IN WASHINGTON STATE
This diagram represents the feedstocks and process technologies discussed throughout the strategy that are best suited to
deliver various forms of bioenergy and value-added co-products in Washington.
Purpose-grown Crops Oil
(e.g., oilseeds, algae) Solids
Food
Field Residuals
Farms & Fields (e.g., wheat stubble) Biofuel
from agriculture and Biochemical (e.g., biodiesel,
Refining renewable diesel)
animal husbandry Animal Manures (cows,
horses, chickens, etc.)
Mortalities & Culls
(chickens, hatcheries)
Commercial
Processors (eggs,
potatoes, seafood,
tree fruit, etc.)
Food Processing
pre-consumer, Restaurants & Grease Transportation
Institutional Kitchens Biogas ->
energy-dense waste
Anaerobic
Renewable
Digestion
Natural Gas
Brewers & Distillers
Fertilizers,
specialty chemicals
Tallow (for resins,
Renderers bioplastics, etc.),
other co-products
Retail Grocers
Municipal Solid Waste
(organic fraction)
Biocrude
Gasification/
Facilities Landfills Pyrolysis Syngas
(H2 & CO) ->
post-consumer
Synthetic Fuels
managed waste
Wastewater Treatment Biochar (for filtration,
soil amendment, etc.)
Forestry Debris Heat & Power
(harvest, hazard
reduction, health
treatments, etc.)
Forests
woody material often Construction &
called "biomass" Demolition Debris Combustion
(clean lumber)
Yard Waste &
Landscaping Debris
Agroforestry Crops
(e.g., poplar)
102 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Biogas plant with cows.
The difference is what happens after the feedstocks have ACTION
been extracted. As feedstocks derived from the manage-
j The departments of Natural Resources, Agriculture,
ment and harvest of agricultural and forestry crops are
Ecology and Commerce, along with WSU’s Center
used for biofuel production, new crops are grown on agri-
for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources,
cultural and forest lands, extracting carbon dioxide from
should expand collaborative efforts to assess
the atmosphere effectively compensating for what is being
Washington’s biogenic feedstocks to help inform
emitted through combustion of the biofuel.
future state policies. With specific focus of on
Whether in gaseous, liquid or solid form, biogenic fuels developing markets for low-grade woody biomass
can support those industrial processes most in need of from forest management and fire hazard reduction
heat or most in need of liquid or gaseous fuels, supple- processes, including opportunities for various
menting the role of electricity in meeting thermal needs. methods of carbon sequestration as informed by
The use of biogenic feedstocks for heat, electricity and DNR’s Carbon Sequestration Advisory Group.156
liquid and gaseous biofuels is inherently more complex
than other forms of renewable energy production. Biogenic Using biogenic feedstocks for heat,
feedstocks offer opportunities for economic development, electricity and liquid and gaseous
waste utilization and value-added co-products absent in
biofuels is complex.
other forms of renewable energy generation. Some feed-
stocks, however, raise concerns about sustainable sourc-
ing, scale and siting.
156
“Carbon Sequestration Advisory Group,” Washington State Department of Natural Resources, accessed December 1, 2020, https://www.dnr.wa.gov/CarbonAdvisoryCmte.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 103
5. Expand Policies to Consider 5.1. Conduct a Consumption-based Inventory
Consumption-based Emissions To lower consumption-based emissions, it is important
Emissions associated with the manufacture and trans- to understand Washington’s consumption patterns and
port of consumer products are referred to as “upstream the extent to which consumption emissions differ from
emissions,” “embodied emissions” or “embodied carbon.” production emissions. Emission inventories that include
Washington has some of the most sophisticated low-car- the embodied carbon of goods and services purchased by
bon manufacturing technology capabilities in the world. consumers are called “consumption-basis” inventories.164
The state is home to some of the best-in-class facilities on
King County computed and reported consumption-ba-
the planet in terms of production of low-carbon building
sis inventories in 2008 and 2015. In 2015, King County’s
and manufacturing materials such as steel rebar157 and
conventional community inventory reported 20 million
aerospace aluminum products.158, 159
tCO2e, while the consumption-basis inventory reported
Global demand for low-embodied carbon materials will 58 million tCO2e, well over 2½ times higher.165
grow as more jurisdictions seek to reduce consump-
The state of Oregon has computed consumption-basis
tion-based emissions. Washington can continue to lead
emissions for 2005, 2010 and 2015. In 2015, Oregon’s
in low-carbon intensity manufacturing, contributing
conventional inventory reported 63 million tCO2e, while the
significantly to in-state and global reductions in green-
consumption-based inventory reported 89 million tCO2e.
house gas emissions. In addition to decarbonizing
The difference in Oregon’s case is less dramatic than in
existing industry, Washington is emerging as a leader in
King County because the larger geography means that
the global clean tech industry160 and green building,161
more industrial sources are captured in the conventional
presenting entirely new opportunities for high-wage
inventory. Even so, Oregon’s consumption-basis inventory
jobs and economic growth.
is still some 41% greater than its conventional inventory.166
Reducing consumption-based emissions is not an alter-
native to reducing production-based emissions. They are Global demand for low-embodied
both essential strategies. Washington’s Center for Sustain-
carbon materials will grow as more
able Infrastructure162 and the University of Washington
jurisdictions seek to reduce consumption-
Carbon Leadership Forum163 are laying important ground-
work in this area by developing standardized approaches based emissions.
for measuring embodied carbon.
157
According to the EC3 calculator, Nucor in Seattle produces the lowest embodied carbon steel concrete reinforcing and merchant bar in the world, and Farwest Steel Corporation with
facilities in Oregon and Washington, as well as CT Sales, Inc. in Woodinville and Addison Construction Supply in Tacoma are also some of the lowest carbon producers in the world for
fabricated reinforcing bar (https://www.buildingtransparency.org/en/).
158
Helen Sanders, “Carbon Counting: A Driver for U.S. Sourced Aluminum? (Part 2),” Insights and Inspirations, September 6, 2019, https://www.usglassmag.com/insights/2019/09/
carbon-counting-a-driver-for-u-s-sourced-aluminum-part-2/.
159
Kaiser Aluminum, External Affairs and United Steelworkers Local 338. Best in Class: Flat Rolled Products. Based on data from Ecometrica, http://emissionfactors.com, August 2011.
160
Washington is home to the Clean Tech Alliance, the largest state trade association of clean tech businesses in the U.S.
161
Paul Roberts, “Growing the Green Economy in Washington State: Exploring an Eco-Nomic Center” (CQC AWC Center for Quality Communities, March 2019), http://cfqc.org/wp-content/
uploads/2019/04/ExploreEcoNomincCenterSummary.pdf.
162
“Center for Sustainable Infrastructure,” accessed December 1, 2020, https://www.sustaininfrastructure.org/.
163
“EC3 Tool Methodology,” Carbon Leadership Forum, accessed October 26, 2020, https://carbonleadershipforum.org/projects/ec3-methodology/.
164
Washington State’s existing GHG inventory already treats electricity on a consumption basis, counting out-of-state emissions associated with imported electricity and discounting in-state
emissions associated with exported electricity. However, doing this for all services and products is a much bigger step – electricity is just one of hundreds of product categories that would
be estimated in a full, consumption-basis inventory.
165
“King County Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory: A 2015 Update” (Cascadia Consulting Group, Hammerschlag & Co. LLC, December 2017), https://your.kingcounty.gov/dnrp/climate/
documents/2015-KC-GHG-inventory.pdf.
166
“Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for Oregon,” accessed October 26, 2020, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/mm/pages/consumption-based-ghg.aspx.
104 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Aerial view of a cargo ship loaded at a Port of Seattle container terminal. Ultima_Gaina/iStock
While the Oregon and King County inventories disclosed 5.2. Incentivize Environmental Product Declarations
consumption emissions greater than production emis- for Products & Materials Consumed in State
sions, states that export more manufactured products Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) often
than they import could have lower consumption-based described as “nutrition labels” for carbon content, make it
emissions than their production-based emissions. For easy to track embodied carbon and recognize low-carbon
example, the emissions associated with Washington’s producers. By establishing demand for and a willingness
aviation manufacturing industry would not be attributed to purchase low-carbon products, private sector invest-
to Washington in a consumption-based approach. Under- ments and innovation are encouraged.
standing the difference and managing reductions of both
EPDs are independently verified and registered documents
is necessary to reduce the global pool of greenhouse gas
that communicate transparent and comparable informa-
emissions rather than just shifting where those emissions
tion about the life-cycle environmental impact of prod-
occur or are measured.
ucts.168 Without regulatory requirements, the disclosure
Understanding consumption-based emissions is also of life-cycle emissions is left to voluntary private sector
important for equity. A household’s carbon footprint action. While some private companies are requiring EPDs
generally increases with income, ranging from 19.3 to for their construction projects, state and local govern-
91.5 tons of CO2-equivalent annually. The average carbon ments procure and fund many of these products and
footprint of the wealthiest households is over five times materials. Public agencies could play a significant role in
that of the poorest. 167 incentivizing better disclosure practices.
ACTION ACTION
j Conduct an inventory of the embodied carbon of j State agencies, through the State Efficiency and
goods and services purchased by Washingtonians. Environmental Performance Office, should explore
the potential for EPDs to support environmentally
aware procurement policies and establish a baseline
for standardized accounting and reporting.
167
Morteza Taiebat and Ming Xu, “5 Charts Show How Your Household Drives up Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” PBS, September 21, 2019, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/
science/5-charts-show-how-your-household-drives-up-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions.
168
The International EPD® System, “What Is an EPD? - The International EPD® System,” accessed December 28, 2018, https://www.environdec.com/What-is-an-EPD/.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 105
6. Leverage the Economic Transition to Create E2 CLEAN JOBS
New Inclusive, Living-Wage Jobs WASHINGTON 2019 FINDINGS
As Washington transitions to a decarbonized econ-
11x
omy, there is an opportunity to support the recovery and
competitiveness of the Washington economy and create more clean energy jobs in
inclusive, living-wage jobs in a wide range of areas from Washington than fossil fuel jobs
agriculture and manufacturing, to utilities and construction
10.1%
(Figure 23).169
of Washington clean energy
These occupations tend to have higher, more equita- workers are veterans, nearly
ble wages and lower educational requirements when
double the national average
compared with other occupations, nationally.170 Clean
8.3k
energy jobs have the added indirect effect of creating
rural Washington residents
health and climate benefits for Washington communities.
work in clean energy
The Low Carbon Prosperity Institute estimates that every
710
million dollars invested in clean energy programs leads to
OUT OF clean energy employees in
$2.4 million in clean air and climate benefits.171
Washington work at companies
Workforce development must be a priority as the state with fewer than 20 employees
emerges from the current economic recession, which has
45%
been especially hard on clean energy jobs. Prior to the of Washington’s clean energy
economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, workforce is located outside
Washington had a total of 83,728 clean energy jobs. Since the Seattle metro area
the pandemic, the state has lost roughly 20% of its clean
510
energy jobs.172 Not only have these job losses upended OUT OF counties by clean energy jobs
the financial security of affected Washington households,
per capita have populations fewer
they also threaten to deplete the workforce necessary for than 100,000—including No.1
the clean energy transition. Jefferson County which is home
to 23 clean energy jobs for every
Washington has experience rebuilding its clean energy
1,000 employable residents
workforce in the wake of a recession. In the 2008 finan-
cial crisis, the state lost tens of thousands of clean energy
jobs. Using American Recovery Reinvestment Act of 2009
(ARRA) funding, the state invested in its workforce, equip-
ping employees with the skills necessary to participate in
the clean energy economy. Washington’s Weatherization
Assistance Program deployed $60 million of ARRA funding
to hire hundreds of workers to weatherize 7,000 low-in-
come homes, creating jobs while reducing utility bills and
improving thermal comfort.173
169
“Clean Jobs Washington 2019” (E2), accessed December 2, 2020, https://www.e2.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/E2-Clean-Jobs-Washington-2019.pdf.
170
Mark Muro et al., “Advancing Inclusion through Clean Energy Jobs” (Brookings, April 2019), https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2019.04_metro_Clean-Energy-Jobs_
Report_Muro-Tomer-Shivaran-Kane.pdf#page=18.
171
Jonah Kurman-Faber, Kevin Tempest, and Ruby Wincele, “Building Back Better: Investing in a Resilient Recovery for Washington State” (Low Carbon Prosperity Institute, Climate Xchange,
2020), https://www.lowcarbonprosperity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Building-Back-Better-Investing-in-a-Resilient-Recovery-for-Washington-State-Website.pdf.
172
“Clean Energy Unemployment Claims in COVID-19 Aftermath| October 2020 Unemployment Analysis,” E2: Business leaders for a better environment, stronger economy, n.d., https://e2.org/
reports/clean-jobs-covid-economic-crisis-october-2020/.
173
Kurman-Faber, Tempest, and Wincele, “Building Back Better: Investing in a Resilient Recovery for Washington State.”
106 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
FIGURE 24. WASHINGTON’S 2019 CLEAN JOBS BREAKDOWN
Other:
Professional 7.3%
Services:
15.5%
Utilities: Clean Jobs
0.2% Breakdown by
Value Chain Construction:
64.3%
Agriculture:
0.6%
Trade:
6.4% Manufacturing:
5.7%
Source: E2 Clean Jobs Count 2019
ARRA kicked off unprecedented growth in clean energy Center of Excellence for Clean Energy, the Smart Build-
jobs in the state between 2008 and 2015. 174
Since then, ings Center, the Clean Energy Fund, the Weatheriza-
Washington has continued to invest in the clean energy tion-Plus-Health program, the Community Energy
workforce, funding efforts and institutions such as the Efficiency Program, the Rural Rehabilitation Program and
WSU Extension Energy Program, the Pacific Northwest the Energy Efficiency and Solar Grants Program.175, 176
174
Ibid.
175
“Washington’s Clean Energy Roadmap” (U.S. Department of Energy| Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, n.d.), https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2020/02/f71/Washington-
Implementation-Model.pdf.
176
“Workforce Development,” Washington State University Energy Program, n.d., http://www.energy.wsu.edu/ResearchEvaluation/WorkforceDevelopment.aspx.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 107
Washington’s 2021 State Energy Strategy represents such as to energy prices or housing prices. The patterns
an opportunity to further support clean energy jobs for labor income are like those for employment and GDP
and the state’s overall workforce. Economic modeling across scenarios and through time.
shows that the strategy’s climate and energy policies
could boost employment in the 2020s and grow the work- Policy choices will lead to minor deviations from these
force in the long term. The initial boost comes from invest- predicted trends. Investments in transportation fuels leads
ments made to build, transport, install and maintain the to the greatest economic boom in the near term due to
clean energy infrastructure needed for decarbonization. investment in manufacturing, delivering and distributing,
Employment takes a dip in the late 2020s and early 2030s and clean fuels statewide. However, long-term economic
as the economic benefits of deploying this infrastructure growth on this pathway is less than other alternatives
have yet to catch up to the costs of the energy transition. given the higher costs to maintain clean fuel infrastruc-
Employment would then regain speed, outperforming ture. The Electrification and Constrained Resource Scenar-
the Reference Scenario by as much as 1.2% (See ios offer the greatest economic benefits over the long
Appendix E - Economic Impacts of Decarbonization term. No matter the variation, each pathway increases
Pathways Modeling). jobs in the short- and long-term.
Figure 25 shows the economic impact to labor income Current occupational and demographic trends suggest
in Washington State in response to the analyzed deep that not all workers will have an equal opportunity to
decarbonization scenarios. Labor income is the sum of all compete for these jobs. The Legislature will need to pair
household income types. These include wages and sala- a coherent, statewide workforce development strategy
ries, investment income and fringe benefits (mostly health with inclusive policies that allow all Washingtonians to
insurance), adjusted for any changes in the cost of living, participate in clean energy economy.
FIGURE 25. ECONOMIC IMPACT TO LABOR INCOME IN WASHINGTON STATE
$10 1.2%
1.0%
$8
Labor Income (2020 $ Billions)
% Change from Reference
0.8%
$6
0.6%
$4 0.4%
0.2%
$2
0.0%
$0
-0.2%
-$2 -0.4%
2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040
2043
2046 2049
Electrification Transport Fuels Gas in Buildings Behavior Change Constrained Resources
Source: Appendix E - Economic Impacts of Decarbonization Pathways, December 31, 2020 (p. 8).
108 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
6.1 Invest in Green Public Infrastructure When making purchasing, construction, leasing and
In Washington state, public works projects require a other decisions that affect state government’s emissions
certain percentage of labor hours for a given construction of greenhouse gases or other toxic substances, agencies
project be performed by Washington State registered or are explicitly directed to consider the benefits and
approved apprentices (Apprenticeship Utilization Require- costs, including the social costs of carbon of available
ments). 177
From energy retrofits in public buildings to options to avoid those emissions. Where cost-effective
EV charging stations at state facilities, public works and workable solutions are available to reduce or
projects offer the opportunity to reduce emissions and eliminate emissions, decision makers are required
generate demand for skilled apprentice labor in the select the lower-emissions options.
clean energy economy.
However, directives are not sufficient without attention
Most agencies under the authority of the Governor to implementation. For example, the state has set
(excluding WSDOT) must require 15% of the total labor requirements in Chapter 194-28 WAC for state agencies
hours to be performed by state-approved apprentices for and local governments to procure alternative fuels and
projects estimated to cost $1 million or more. WSDOT vehicles procurement based upon total cost of ownership
must require 15% of the total labor hours to be performed and the social cost of carbon, but these rules have
by state-approved apprentices for projects estimated yet to receive the enforcement authority and administra-
to cost $2 million or more. All public works by a school tive funding necessary for effective implementation.
district or four-year higher education institution estimated
to cost $1 million or more must contain specifications Governments in Washington procure a wide range of
requiring that no less than 15% of the labor hours to be products and services. Public contracts present opportu-
performed by registered apprentices. nities to support high-quality, accessible jobs. Requiring
or incentivizing suppliers and contractors to meet certain
ACTION labor standards, disclose the emissions performance
of their products and follow low carbon practices can
j Continue to invest in green public infrastructure
support a strong workforce and further the state’s
and consider expanding labor requirements for
progress in decarbonizing. Requiring agencies to factor
public projects.
greenhouse gas emissions into purchasing decisions
supports and drives clean industry—leveling the field
for those who have invested in green approaches and
6.2 Invest in Reducing Emissions from State Contracts
and Operations motivating others to follow suit.
In addition to the statewide greenhouse gas emissions
ACTION
limits, Washington state agencies are subject to a require-
ment to reduce emissions from state operations.178 One j Adopt “Buy Clean / Buy Fair” requirements for
way to support in-state industry and enlist the private public projects.
sector in decarbonization is to leverage the buying power j Ensure that existing procurement requirements
of state and local government. In 2020, Governor Inslee and associated master contracts are supported
issued Executive Order 20-01, concerning State Efficiency and properly implemented.
and Environmental Performance.179
177
Chapter 39.04.320 RCW.
178
(1) State agencies shall meet the statewide greenhouse gas emission limits established in RCW 70A.45.020 to achieve the following, using the estimates and strategy established in
subsections (2) and (3) of this section: (a) By July 1, 2020, reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to eight hundred five thousand metric tons, or fifteen percent below 2005 emission levels;
(b) By 2030, reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to five hundred twenty-one thousand metric tons, or forty-five percent below 2005 levels; (c) By 2040, reduce emissions of greenhouse
gases to two hundred eighty-four thousand metric tons, or seventy percent below 2005 levels; and (d) By 2050, reduce overall emissions of greenhouse gases to forty-seven thousand
metric tons, or ninety-five percent below 2005 levels and achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by state government as a whole. (RCW 70A.45.050).
179
“State Efficiency and Environmental Performance,” Pub. L. No. Executive Order 20-01 (n.d.), https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/exe_order/20-01%20SEEP%20Executive%20
Order%20%28tmp%29.pdf.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 109
6.3 Invest in Washington’s Clean Buildings and training and education, offering state of the art trainings in
Weatherization Workforce Development Organizations building energy efficiency and nationally recognized build-
Washington’s Green Economy Report found that a ing operator certification program — a competency-based
majority of Washington’s clean energy sectors do not have credentialing program for building engineers and mainte-
well established workforce pipelines. The report identified nance personnel.
11 recommendations to develop and support workforce
pipelines. In addition to those recommendations, a number The Buildings Performance Center has been a leader in
of other complementary opportunities exist. One of those weatherization training and education. Employers and
relates to building energy efficiency trainees highly recommend the Center, but also note the
and decarbonization. need for trainings to be offered more frequently and for the
curriculum to be expanded. Additional funding will also be
Building energy efficiency continues to be an excellent required to expand outreach and recruitment activities.180
economic and climate change investment for Washington.
It is the single largest clean tech employer and, according The 2021 State Energy also recommends a significant
to the E2 2019 clean jobs in Washington study, demand market shift to heat pumps. The installation and mainte-
for clean buildings and weatherization jobs are anticipated nance of these heat pumps requires a skilled workforce
to grow as a result of market forces and public policy, i.e., with licenses or certifications in electrical and refrigeration
the Clean Commercial Buildings Standard (Chapter 285, management. It is in the interest of the state to ensure
Laws of 2019). Additional investments in the state’s build- that it has a workforce ready to install and maintain over
ings workforce will assist the state in meeting its climate the medium to long-term.
objectives by ensuring that it has the workforce capable of
ACTION
accomplishing the state’s energy efficiency and decarbon-
ization objectives. j The Legislature should invest in workforce development
organizations for building energy efficiency and decar-
Washington has two model workforce development orga- bonization. Funding should go toward the expansion of
nizations for energy efficiency and decarbonization in the the state’s existing curriculum, increasing the frequency
buildings sector. The Smart Buildings Center has been a of trainings and providing grants and stipends for
regional leader in commercial building energy efficiency
180
Alan Hardcastle, “Weatherization Workforce Roadmap for Washington State” (Washington State University Energy Program, March 2020), https://www.commerce.wa.gov/wp-content/
uploads/2020/11/Wx-Workforce-Roadmap-FINAL-March-2020-Rev-1.pdf.
181
Ibid.
Smart Buildings Center.
110 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Chris Limbrick/stsrealestatevisuals.com
participants in commercial and residential energy audit
certifications, building operator certifications, energy
management and energy code training and construction
trades. Grants, stipends and trainings should be equi-
tably advertised and offer opportunities to historically
under-resourced and underrepresented communities.
j Assess labor market development needs for electri-
cal and refrigeration licenses or certifications for heat
pumps, and develop plans with the apprentice training Technical trainer explaining solar panel model to students.
institutions to meet those needs. Cavan Images/Alamy Stock Photo
6.4 Establish Accredited System of Regional Dual-Credit The Centers for Excellence provide a model upon which
Career & Technical Education Programs the state can meet its workforce needs as they relate to
Washington’s Centers of Excellence partner with business, the clean energy transition.
industry, labor and the state’s education system to create
workforce pipelines for industries critical to the state’s ACTION
economic vitality.182 There are currently 11 Centers of j The Legislature should commission the state’s Centers
Excellence.183 Each center specializes in one key sector of Excellence to identify regional "clusters” of dual
of the economy.184 credit career and technical education (CTE) courses
and funding opportunities in the clean energy sector.
The Pacific Northwest Center of Excellence for Clean
Each cluster should advance a degree or certification in
Energy serves as the state’s sole Center of Excellence
two or more careers in clean energy.188 The Centers of
for clean energy.185 Located in Centralia, Washington, the
Excellence should engage under-resourced and under-
Center offers 65 community college programs in the areas
represented communities in the development of their
of power generation, transmission and distribution; solar,
programs and recruitment policies. Grant and stipend
wind and hydro technologies; and demand response.
opportunities for these communities should be part of
Students receive the skills they need to be successful in
each program.
their chosen industry and externships to demonstrate and
further hone their skills.186 They graduate ready to meet
the state’s workforce needs and connections to industry
6.5 Establish the Washington Climate Corps Program
leaders in their fields of study.187
To complement a dual-credit CTE initiative, the state
As the transition to the clean energy economy accelerates, should establish a comprehensive apprenticeship strategy
there will be a need for greater workforce development that provides clean energy and construction training and
in areas not currently covered by the Pacific Northwest work experience to young adults and veterans. A Climate
Center of Excellence for Clean Energy or the Smart Corps program would provide hands-on experience and
Buildings Center. For instance, the state currently lacks community energy planning to prepare Washington
a workforce pipeline for the clean transportation sector. communities for the clean energy transition.
182
“About Us,” Washington State Centers of Excellence, n.d., https://www.coewa.com/about.
183
“Centers of Excellence,” Washington State Centers of Excellence, n.d., https://www.coewa.com/centers-of-excellence.
184
Ibid.
185
“Clean Energy,” Washington State Centers of Excellence, n.d., https://www.coewa.com/clean-energy.
186
“Who We Serve,” Washington State Centers of Excellence, n.d., https://www.coewa.com/who-we-serve.
187
“Industry,” Washington State Centers of Excellence, n.d., https://www.coewa.com/industry.
188
Existing COEs representing advanced manufacturing, clean energy, maritime and IT have applied for a federal grant opportunity, but funding is not guaranteed.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 111
Report, King County Metro identified that the transition to
a battery-electric fleet will require training for battery main-
tenance, safety and dispatching, operator training, transit
control center and service quality. Metro is currently work-
ing with the industry leaders to develop this program and
coordinate and help write the training manuals to meet
local transportation requirements. The report notes:
Longer term, Metro leadership needs to work closely with its
operational workforce to assure a successful transition from
launch to long-term operations. Metro should also be actively
working with local colleges for a pipeline of required trades
and competencies as electricians are going to be in high
demand as transportation continues to electrify.189
Establishing a statewide training workforce pipeline for
battery-electric fleets would provide workforce develop-
King County Metro All-Electric Bus. Ned Ahrens
ment for the whole state as the state transitions its bus
fleets to battery-electric and zero-emission vehicles.
ACTION
ACTION
j The Legislature should establish the Washington j The Legislature should establish a workforce pipeline
Climate Corps through the Washington Service Corps. for the operation and maintenance of battery-electric
Intermediary grants should be provided to the Centers buses and the installation and maintenance of their
of Excellence and Career Connect Washington to link requisite charging infrastructure. The program should
dual-credit CTE graduates to existing registered appren- include grants and stipends for under-resourced and
ticeship programs, connect businesses to established underrepresented communities and the operators and
apprenticeship programs and assist industries in estab- crewpersons of retiring fossil fuel fleets.
lishing new apprenticeship programs when needed.
6.7 Prepare for a Just Industrial Transition
6.6 Establish a Battery-Electric Bus Fleet Even with policy intention and intervention to maintain
Training Program
existing industry and grow new clean industries, some
To meet Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions targets
Washington industries may decline over the next decades
will require the conversion of Washington’s public buses
due to global or national market forces. When possible,
to battery electric fleets. A new and retrained workforce
that decline should be managed to avoid worker displace-
will be required to operate and maintain these vehicles
ment and economic disruption. Planning a just transition
and their supporting infrastructure.
is a way to decouple emissions reductions from economic
opportunities for communities and workers.
King County Metro is the first metro area in Washington
to begin planning a workforce program for battery-elec-
Steps to enable rapid decarbonization (e.g., expedited
tric buses. In its 2020 Battery-Electric Bus Implementation
permitting or siting) should be thoughtfully implemented
189
“Battery-Electric Bus Implementation Report” (King County Metro, January 2020), https://kingcounty.gov/~/media/depts/metro/programs-projects/zero-emissions-fleet/battery-electric-
bus-implementation-report.pdf.
112 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
so as not to create displacement, environmental damage The state needs a long-term strategy for
or economic disinvestment in local communities, referred transitioning the skilled fossil fuel workforce
to as “sacrifice zones,” often through locally unwanted land
to good-paying, skilled, clean energy jobs.
use. Tools such as the Washington Environmental Health
Disparities Map190 can help identify communities most
impacted by siting a certain industry and to determine the the phaseout plan was designed to minimize job losses
local priorities. The permitting and siting processes must by allowing many employees to reach retirement age, or
ensure meaningful participation of and representation by plan ahead to seek new employment.194
those most impacted in decision making. 191
Over the coming decade, the fossil fuel industry is
Long-term planning needs to recognize that fossil fuel expected to lose about 140 jobs per year in Washington.195
use will continue to decline, with or without explicit policy. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers estimated
The state needs a long-term strategy for transitioning the that these job losses could primarily be handled through
skilled fossil fuel workforce to good-paying, skilled, clean retirement.196 Protections for workers, such as pension
energy jobs. guarantees,197, 198 bridges to retirement, wage compensa-
tion insurance,199, 200 and retraining are important for a
The landmark 2011 Memorandum of Understanding
just transition.
between the State of Washington and TransAlta to phase
out the coal-fired power plant in Centralia is a success- ACTIONS
ful example of a just transition. The agreement includes a
j Identify the industries that are likely to experience
commitment by TransAlta to make annual financial assis-
transition and make a transition plan for the workers
tance payments to support weatherization and energy
well in advance of closure. Engage industry leaders,
efficiency; education, worker retraining and economic
community representatives and labor unions from
development in the region (Lewis and South Thurston
the outset in mapping the priorities of each group
counties), and grants to support the deployment of clean
impacted by industrial transition.
energy technologies.192 Under the agreement, $55 million in
grant funds are overseen by three Coal Transition Funding j Ensure that transition policies promote labor
Boards: the Weatherization Board, Economic & Community standards, shared benefits and long-term support
Development Board and Energy Technology Board. 193 for Washington industries and jobs.
j Adopt permitting and siting processes that ensure
Unit 1 of the Centralia coal plant is slated to shut
community participation and representation.
down on December 31, 2020. Unit 2 will shut down on
December 31, 2025. The 15-year timeline adopted for
190
“Washington Tracking Network: A Source for Environmental Public Health Data,” n.d., https://fortress.wa.gov/doh/wtn/WTNIBL/.
191
“Front and Centered Approach to Equitable Greenhouse Gas Reduction in Washington State” (Front and Centered, 2020), https://frontandcentered.org/
accelerating-just-transition-in-wa-state/.
192
“Memorandum of Agreement” (Washington Department of Ecology, December 23, 2011), https://ecology.wa.gov/DOE/files/85/858591f6-dd25-47be-ba1d-0f58264ca147.pdf.
193
“Centralia Coal Transition Grants,” n.d., https://cctgrants.com/.
194
“TransAlta, Legislators and Environmental Groups Reach Agreement for Centralia’s Transition,” accessed October 26, 2020, https://www.transalta.com/our-operations/united-states/
centralia/community-updates/transalta-legislators-and-environmental-groups-reach-agreement-for-centralias-transition/.
195
Robert Pollin, Heidi Garrett-Peltier, and Jeannette Wicks-Lim, “A Green New Deal for Washington State” (University of Massachusetts Amherst, 2017), https://www.peri.umass.edu/
publication/item/1033-a-green-new-deal-for-washington-state.
196
Ibid.
197
Jeremy Brecher, “No Worker Left Behind: Protecting Workers and Communities in the Green New Deal,” New Labor Forum 29, no. 2 (May 1, 2020): 68–76, https://doi.
org/10.1177/1095796020915177.
198
Elena Foshay, Jill Kubit, and Lara Skinner, “Making the Transition: Helping Workers and Communities Retool for the Clean Energy Economy” (Apollo Alliance and Cornell Global Labor
Institute, 2009), http://www.nlg-laboremploy-comm.org/media/Events_Conv2010-GreenEconCornell_ILR_Making_the_T.pdf.
199
Robert Pollin and Brian Callaci, “The Economics of Just Transition: A Framework for Supporting Fossil Fuel–Dependent Workers and Communities in the United States,” Labor Studies
Journal 44, no. 2 (June 1, 2019): 93–138, https://doi.org/10.1177/0160449X18787051.
200
Foshay, Kubit, and Skinner, “Making the Transition: Helping Workers and Communities Retool for the Clean Energy Economy.”
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 113
F.
100% Clean
Electricity to Meet
the Needs of a
Decarbonized
Economy
1. Accelerate Investment 117
in Renewable
Generating Resources
and Transmission
2. Build a Smart and 122
Flexible Grid
3. Facilitate Community 129
Deployment of Renewable
Generation Resources
and Grid Services
Transmission tower, Bonneville Lock and Dam
114 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Clean Energy Transition Institute
F. 100% Clean Electricity
to Meet the Needs of a
Decarbonized Economy
Electricity will play a transformative role in meeting
Washington’s greenhouse gas reduction limits. The state
will need to grow and manage clean, reliable electricity
generation to meet increasing demand from buildings,
industry and transportation. With its relatively clean grid,201
ambitious clean electricity requirements and deep exper-
tise in electricity, Washington is poised to be a leader in
the transition to an electrified, decarbonized economy
over the coming decade.
This will require a comprehensive change of the electricity
sector—from the interactions of individual customers and
communities with the grid to the generation and transmis- Solar panels on roof of North Utility Building at Marymoor Park, WA.
sion of electricity across the West. An equitable transfor-
mation, as envisioned in the Clean Energy Transformation
Act (CETA), will reflect community priorities for resilience
j Fulfill energy and capacity demands created by
and affordability, ensure that all customers benefit from
increased electricity use in transportation, buildings
smart grid services and preserve reliable service.
and industry.
The electricity sector strategies complement those j Increase grid resilience and satisfy community
recommended for other sectors with end uses converted demands for electricity services.202
from fossil fuels to electricity where possible. This is
particularly true for the transportation and buildings
j Advance an equitable clean energy economy and
sectors. The strategies will: create living-wage jobs.
j Meet CETA’s requirements for a greenhouse gas The deep decarbonization modeling analysis performed
neutral electricity supply by 2030 and 100% for this strategy, combined with a review of existing decar-
renewable or non-emitting (“clean”) electricity by 2045, bonization plans and independent analyses, point to a
while incorporating equity, reliability and resource transformational role for the electricity sector in a decar-
adequacy principles. bonized future. Even in those scenarios with continued use
of gas or liquid forms of energy, Washington needs clean
electricity to produce those fuels.
201
“Washington State Electric Utility Fuel Mix Disclosure Reports: For Calendar Year 2018” (Washington State Department of Commerce, 2019), https://www.commerce.wa.gov/wp-content/
uploads/2020/04/Energy-Fuel-Mix-Disclosure-2018.pdf.
202
Ralph Kappelhoff et al., “Embracing the Voice of the Customer” (2019 Grid Forward Conference, October 9, 2019). Customer and community demands include enhanced energy security,
health and environmental benefits, uninterruptible, high-fidelity power for data operations and the procurement of locally-sourced electricity.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 115
The modeling suggests that electricity demand in combustion alternatives, Washington must continue
Washington could grow by 13-20% over 2020 levels by to prioritize end-use efficiency, with particular empha-
2030. Electricity load growth then accelerates, and sis on the buildings sector. This has been a successful
by 2050 is up to 92% above the 2020 level, as shown strategy in the Pacific Northwest for more than 40 years.
in Figure 26. By 2045, 42-50% of the energy used in As the power system evolves, an increasingly smart grid
Washington would be in the form of electricity, up from will allow more complex energy management, such as
21% today. This growth — occurring parallel with CETA regional demand response programs and other non-wires
requirements for carbon-neutral electricity by 2030 and solutions, leading to the efficient use of renewable and
100% non-carbon emitting by 2045 — will require diverse, non-emitting generation.
new non-carbon-emitting generation resources.
To transform the state’s overall energy system, the
The transformation to clean electricity will enable electric power system requires substantial alteration.
and require Washington to use energy more efficiently. New or expanded transmission capacity is required for
In addition to the inherent efficiency advantages of access to the best renewable resources and to take full
electric vehicles and electric heat pumps over direct advantage of coordination opportunities across the West.
FIGURE 26. POTENTIAL FUTURE ENERGY MIX IN DEEP DECARBONIZATION MODELING
Growing reliance on clean Imports provide 43% of Doubling of 2020 load by Growth in clean electricity
imports to meet load growth, electricity in Electrifica- 2050, including new flexible in Constrained Resources
CETA, and emissions goals tion Case by 2050 loads (electrolysis, boilers) case due to offshore wind
Constrained
Reference Electrification Transport Fuels Gas in Buildings Behavior Change
Resources
200
Generation (TWh)
150
100
50
0
200
Load (TWh)
150
100
50
0
2020 2030 2040 20502020 2030 2040 20502020 2030 2040 20502020 2030 2040 20502020 2030 2040 20502020 2030 2040 2050
New
New Industrial IndustrialNet
Loads Loads
TX Bulk Load
Bulk Load Other
Clean Load
Energy Other Load Fossil
Net TX Clean Energy Fossil
Source: Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Pathways Modeling Report, December 11, 2020 (p. 38).
116 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
A modernized grid will allow more flexibility in operations
and more use of distributed resources such as solar,
storage and demand response. The institutions and
organizations that operate, plan and regulate the electric
system also require change.
1. Accelerate Investment in Renewable
Generating Resources and Transmission
Significant quantities of new clean generation will be
required to meet the future energy requirements of Wash-
ington’s businesses and households. The resource require-
ments include new power generation facilities, expanded
transmission capacity, demand response resources, end
use energy efficiency and modernization of the electric
distribution grid. Washington’s utilities can choose among
multiple types of clean generation resources.
Wind turbines, Goldendale, WA. Clean Energy Transition Institute
The deep decarbonization modeling suggests that wind
and solar will be the most cost-effective resources, but all
resource decisions are subject to more specific analysis,
and at this pace will be an unfamiliar challenge for utilities,
including the 2021 Northwest Power Plan203 and individ-
project developers, planning organizations, the financial
ual utility integrated resource plans. Under CETA, nuclear
community, regulators and siting agencies. The Legis-
generation can compete as well. There also are choices to
lature anticipated this challenge in CETA with additional
be made about the location of new generating resources,
planning requirements205 and authority for the Utilities
either within the state or at more distant locations with
and Transportation Commission (UTC) to use alternative
better energy characteristics but greater transmission
regulatory approaches.206
requirements. The actual outcome will almost certainly be
a combination of resource types sited both in-state and Recommended approaches to meet this challenge focus
outside Washington. on a more robust transmission system across the West-
ern Interconnection, an increased focus on resource
The electric power system investments required by
adequacy, reform of wholesale electric markets, improved
the transformation can provide an important economic
data and research about resource options and accelerated
and financial opportunity for workers and businesses.
modernization of the communications and control abilities
However, after almost 30 years of stable electricity
in the distribution system.
demand,204 electric resource acquisition of this scale
203
“The 2021 Northwest Power Plan,” accessed November 1, 2020, https://www.nwcouncil.org/2021-northwest-power-plan.
204
The state’s electricity consumption in 1992 exceeded its consumption in 2018, the most recent year for which data is available. “Table CT3. Total End-Use Energy Consumption Estimates,
1960-2018, Washington,” Washington - SEDS - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), n.d., https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/data.php?incfile=/state/seds/sep_use/tx/
use_tx_WA.html&sid=WA.
205
Chapter 19.280.030 RCW.
206
Chapter 80.28.401 RCW; Chapter 80.04.250 RCW.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 117
Panoramic view of solar panels.
1.1. Assess the Potential for and Facilitate Deployment An assessment should engage a range of stakeholders
of New Clean Energy Resources and communities, ensure burdens and benefits are
To take best advantage of opportunities to develop clean shared and incorporate public and environmental health
resources within Washington, utilities will need detailed as part of the review. Technical, environmental, legal
information about potential locations. Accurate site infor- and economic criteria should reflect the requirements of
mation could speed resource development, avoid dupli- communities, utilities and project developers. This stake-
cation of efforts and reduce conflicts among competing holder engagement should inform a statewide effort to
uses, including wildlife and military uses. identify clean energy corridors or development zones.
A successful assessment could support changes to
In 2020, the Legislature funded a pilot study, modeled
permitting requirements.
on work in California,207 to identify solar sites in the
Columbia Basin that minimize conflict among potential ACTION
uses. However, this funding was among the budget items
j Funding should be made available to Commerce
vetoed due to budget shortfalls related to the COVID-19
and electric utilities to conduct a statewide clean
pandemic.208 This pilot study concept should be expanded
energy potential assessment to identify clean energy
to a statewide assessment.
development zones.
207
“Mapping Lands to Avoid Conflict for Solar PV in the San Joaquin Valley,” May 2016, https://www.law.berkeley.edu/research/clee/research/climate/solar-pv-in-the-sjv/.
208
“Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6168,” § 604(33) (2020), http://leap.leg.wa.gov/leap/budget/lbns/2020Omni6168-S.SL.pdf.
118 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
1.2. Strengthen the Transmission System across the BPA and various retail electric utilities, are in the best
West and within the State position to advance this work and build on recent progress
A power system that relies primarily on renewable in establishing NorthernGrid, a collaborative transmission
resources will require a more robust and flexible transmis- planning entity.211
sion network, compared to a power system that relies on
fossil fuels. Enhanced transmission capacity improves An important element of this work in Washington is the
access to superior wind resources in the Mountain West transmission corridors workgroup created by the Legisla-
and superior solar resources in the Southwest. A robust ture as part of CETA.212 The primary focus of this work-
transmission system increases reliability and reduces the group is to ensure adequate transmission capacity and
amount of resources each utility must hold in reserve to appropriate environmental review of transmission proj-
ensure adequate supplies. ects within the state. In addition to new capacity, addi-
tional capacity could be made available within the existing
While unsuccessful past efforts could discourage a strat- system through the reform of transmission pricing and
egy that relies on out-of-state resources and coordinated contract structures.
operations, the crucial role of transmission, as well as
effective market coordination, is demonstrated in recent ACTIONS
analysis for the Western Interstate Energy Board. 209
The j The Governor’s office, the UTC and Commerce should
analysis concluded that increased regional grid integra- pursue opportunities for enhanced transmission
tion and market coordination would lower future electricity planning and integration across the Western grid and
costs and significantly reduce the potential for curtailment advocate for joint development where feasible.
of renewable generation.
j Utilities and planning agencies should evaluate the need
Under baseline business-as-usual assumptions, renew- for joint development of new and upgraded transmis-
able curtailments could approach 20% of total renewable sion capacity and consider the viability of a regional
energy production by 2035. (Curtailment occurs when transmission organization.
renewable generation exceeds demand for electricity.)
With regional coordination, curtailments would be less
than 10% and production costs would be $2.2 billion lower 1.3. Encourage and Monitor Development of a Resource
than in the baseline case. In contrast, limited regional Adequacy Program
coordination — that is, no day-ahead market — results in One of the core requirements of CETA is reliable service.
the highest increase in costs ($11.3 billion in 2035) and Each utility must ensure it maintains enough resources
leads to renewable curtailment of 50%. to maintain reliable service under a wide range of operat-
ing conditions.213 The priority of resource adequacy (RA)
The needed expansion of transmission capacity will is demonstrated by CETA’s provision allowing a utility to
require coordination among utilities, planning agen- temporarily suspend the clean energy transition if neces-
cies and governments. Some stakeholders advocate for sary to preserve reliability.214 Commerce is directed to lead
creation of a regional transmission organization to an evaluation of the impact of CETA’s requirements on
administer the transmission grid on a regional basis.210 system reliability and other values starting in 2023.215
The owners of existing transmission resources, such as
209
Energy Strategies, “Western Flexibility Assessment” (Western Interstate Energy Board, 2019). https://westernenergyboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/12-10-19-ES-WIEB-Western-
Flexibility-Assessment-Final-Report.pdf
210
“Electric Power Markets,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, accessed November 30, 2020, https://www.ferc.gov/industries-data/market-assessments/electric-power-markets.
211
“NorthernGrid,” accessed November 30, 2020, https://www.northerngrid.net/.
212
Chapter 19.405.150 RCW.
213
Chapter 19.280.030 RCW.
214
Chapter 19.405.090 RCW.
215
Chapter 19.405.080 RCW.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 119
ACTIONS
j Washington utilities, resource owners and developers
and other stakeholders should continue to engage in
development of a consistent and non-discriminatory RA
program through the NWPP.
j Commerce and the UTC should review the progress and
outcomes of the NWPP RA initiative and evaluate the
need for additional state action to ensure CETA’s RA
requirements are fulfilled.
1.4. Reform and Expand Wholesale Electricity Markets
Wholesale markets are important for maintaining a reliable
and affordable electricity supply. Invisible but beneficial to
Hydroelectric power plant and transmission at individual customers, these markets help utilities balance
the Grand Coulee Dam, WA. the supply and demand for electricity. When utilities find
a cheaper power source outside their own portfolio, a
In 2019, the Northwest Power Pool (NWPP), composed market transaction avoids the excess costs of building or
of major generating utilities serving the Northwestern U.S., separately procuring additional resources. Without elec-
British Columbia and Alberta, started a project to address tricity markets, electricity would be more expensive and
RA. NWPP has proposed a program in which individual less reliable.
utilities would adopt consistent standards for the amount
and type of resources needed to serve customers reliably. Historically, Washington’s electric utilities have relied
An RA standard and program not only reduce the risk heavily on a bilateral market in which individual utilities,
of a shortage of electricity supply, but also lower the power plant operators and brokers contract for power
amount of resources needed to achieve any particular at the mid-Columbia delivery point on the transmission
level of reliability. system.217 A bilateral market focuses on short-term trades
without a central entity to consider other financially feasi-
While the NWPP initiative is a promising start, ongoing ble trades.
monitoring and evaluation by the UTC and Commerce
will be required. The effective implementation of an RA Since 2014, the region’s utilities have increasingly relied
program in compliance with CETA will require complex on the Western Energy Imbalance Market (EIM) to identify
analysis of resource requirements and the contributions and capture cost-minimizing power trades in a centralized
to reliability from diverse resources, such as hydro, wind, system. The EIM was created by the California Indepen-
solar, storage and demand response.216 The analytical dent System Operator and PacifiCorp. By 2022, most utili-
methods must be consistent and transparent. They must ties serving Washington customers will participate directly
account for the diverse capabilities of these resources or indirectly in the EIM.218 These markets have saved utility
to ensure that renewables, storage and hybrid resources customers in the West more than a billion dollars when
compete on an equal footing with thermal resources. compared with the cost for each utility running its own
power plants to serve its own customers every hour.219
216
“Redesigning Capacity Markets: Innovation Landscape Brief” (International Renewable Energy Agency, 2019), https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Jun/
Market-Design-Innovation-Landscape-briefs.
217
“Wholesale Electricity and Natural Gas Market Data,” accessed November 1, 2020, https://www.eia.gov/electricity/wholesale/.
218
“Western EIM Factsheet” (California ISO, 2020), https://www.westerneim.com/Documents/WesternEIMFactSheet.pdf.
219
“ISO Announces the Western EIM Surpassed $1 Billion in Benefits” (California ISO, Western Energy Imbalance Market, 2020), https://www.westerneim.com/Documents/ISO-Announces-
Western-EIM-Surpassed-1Billion-Benefits.pdf.
120 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
There is value in extending the scope of organized markets purchases to serve retail customers. Commerce and the
to cover more than the short-term market. However, the UTC are required to adopt rules by June 2022.
existing wholesale electricity markets require reform to
ensure that market rules do not force utilities to choose Electricity market reform is necessarily a multi-state effort.
between meeting their clean electricity obligations and Success will likely require a different organization or gover-
realizing the efficiency benefits of organized markets. nance structure than the EIM, which is controlled by the
This potential conflict arises because existing markets State of California with participation by a Body of State
typically do not differentiate between electricity from Regulators.220 For example, public power utilities in the
renewable sources and electricity from natural gas or Northwest have published a set of principles for appropri-
coal-fired plants. While market traders have the option to ate governance of an expanded market.221
specify that electricity will be renewable, the vast majority
These principles include establishing a board with a selec-
of current market transactions are for “unspecified elec-
tion process that is durable and independent from market
tricity.” This market rule is the result of industry practice
participants or regional governments; giving that board
rather than any legal requirement.
decision-making authority over market rules; engaging an
Because of the potential conflict between market prac- independent market expert; including a third-party dispute
tices and clean electricity requirements, in November 2019 resolution process and ensuring that participation is volun-
Commerce and the UTC convened a carbon and elec- tary. In the longer term, the industry should explore the use
tricity markets workgroup under CETA. The workgroup of market mechanisms to buy and sell capacity resources,
will provide input into rules to address the use of market which will become increasingly important as coal and
natural gas generating facilities are retired.
220
“Western EIM - EIM Body of State Regulators,” accessed November 1, 2020, https://www.westerneim.com/Pages/Governance/EIMBodyofStateRegulators.aspx.
221
“Northwest Public Power EDAM Governance Interests” (Public Generating Pool, Public Power Council, PNGC Power, Northwest Requirements Utilities, 2019), https://static1.squarespace.
com/static/5e9fc98ab8d9586057ba8496/t/5ee532273ef4864f3e274b8e/1592078888146/1-23-2020-EDAM-Governance-Interests-with-logos.pdf.
Solar installation at the Capitol in Olympia, WA. Department of Commerce Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 121
ACTIONS physical attacks. Simply put, how much can the grid bend,
but not break. Flexibility gives the system the capacity to
j Wholesale market participants should develop market
manage and balance variable load from both centralized
rules to allow trade in electricity from sources verified
and especially distributed energy resources (DERs), like
to comply with CETA’s clean energy requirements.
wind and solar. There is a wide range of DER technologies
The UTC and Commerce, with input from the Carbon
and applications available today.222, 223
and Electricity Markets Workgroup, should adopt rules
to ensure this outcome. Developing a modern grid will require new planning
j Electric utilities should pursue the long-term processes, infrastructure, software solutions and other
development of a fully integrated Western regional tools to enable a mix of DER technologies.224 Grid oper-
electricity market, beginning with expansion of orga- ators will need new controls to securely and reliability
nized markets to trade day-ahead and longer term operate that future grid—managing variable demand and
resources. Long-term market development should supply, ensuring adequate resource capacity and provid-
explore opportunities to trade capacity resources, ing resilience.225 Utilities will need situational awareness of
including demand response resources. capacity constraints and resilience for critical infrastruc-
ture to avoid issues experienced by some states with high
j Commerce’s 2024 CETA evaluation under RCW
penetrations of renewables, such as Hawaii and California.
19.405.080 should include an assessment of industry
progress in developing efficient and resource-specified Supported by new markets for firm capacity and other
electricity markets. essential grid services,226 the deployment of flexible
capacity through demand response programs and other
2. Building a Smart and Flexible Grid “non-wires” strategies, such as microgrids, will reduce grid
congestion and improve efficiency, especially at the trans-
A smart, flexible and optimized grid is foundational to
mission level. At the distribution level, these adjustments
meeting CETA goals and electrifying the economy while
will enable interactive customer engagement and allow
assuring system reliability and resilience at both the
for deployment of community-scale resources.
distribution and transmission levels. A modern system
allows for two-way energy flows, control and management
of the entire grid using data and digital technologies. To electrify the economy while assuring
The grid must be both resilient and flexible. system reliability and resilience requires a
Resiliency includes the mitigation of and recovery from
smart, flexible and optimized grid.
outages due to a range of possible scenarios includ-
ing earthquakes, wildfires and human-caused cyber and
222
Tanuj Deora, Lisa Frantzis, and James Mandel, “Distributed Energy Resources 101: Required Reading for a Modern Grid,” Advanced Energy Perspectives, 2017, https://blog.aee.net/
distributed-energy-resources-101-required-reading-for-a-modern-grid.
223
“The Many Types of Distributed Energy Resources, Common and Obscure,” August 14, 2019, https://insidelines.pjm.com/
the-many-types-of-distributed-energy-resources-common-and-obscure/.
224
Kelsey A Horowitz et al., “An Overview of Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Interconnection: Current Practices and Emerging Solutions” (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, April 11,
2019), https://doi.org/10.2172/1508510.
225
Appendix H – WA State Energy Strategy PNNL Presentation to CETI October 2020
226
These include frequency response, regulating, contingency and ramping reserves, voltage management and power quality. “Connected Communities, Funding Opportunity Announcement
(FOA) Number: DE-FOA-0002206, Appendix J” (Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2020), https://eere-exchange.energy.gov/Default.
aspx#FoaId9d24afcd-e292-4ea2-a4d3-d36e2b9dd9c7.
122 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Portland General Electric's Salem Smart Power Center includes a
large-scale energy storage system. Portland General Electric Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 123
2.1. Expand the State’s Energy Infrastructure Security &
Emergency Management Capabilities
As transportation and buildings are electrified and “smart”
appliances become more ubiquitous, a flexible grid is
essential. Flexibility will help to meet variable energy and
demand needs (e.g., the timing of vehicle charging) and to
deploy distributed stored energy (e.g., storage in vehicle
batteries and water heaters). Strengthening and updat-
ing the electric grid with new technology can help prevent
outages and permit real-time data sharing to increase
system-wide efficiency.
At the same time, grid modernization will require a
Fire threatening power lines running along US 97 in Washington focus on cybersecurity and policies and practices to safe-
State. WA State Department of Transportation guard privacy. Privacy and security considerations are
related but not synonymous. Generally, privacy is about
controlling who has access to personal information, and
A modern electric grid delivers reliable, affordable and security is about protecting that information from unau-
clean electricity to consumers where and when they want thorized access.230
it. Grid resilience protects customers and businesses from
outages. Flexibility ensures that renewable and distributed Advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) is one of the key
resources are smoothly integrated into the grid. components of a smart grid, but its progress has been
delayed by — among other factors — concerns about
A better understanding of the value of DERs — especially security and privacy.231 Security protections, incentives
the value of services ancillary to the grid — will help utili- for customer participation and opt-out provisions may
ties and regulators understand the full impact and oppor- address these concerns and remove obstacles to full
tunity of these assets. A roadmap for DERs has been laid deployment.232
out through previous work on energy storage: The UTC
conducted foundational work227 to understand regulatory Further, with regard to cybersecurity and resiliency, while
barriers. Five different pilot projects, funded in part by Commerce is working with the National Association of
grants from the state’s Clean Energy Fund (CEF) 228
and State Energy Offices (NASEO) to develop and review best
supported by analysis by the Pacific Northwest National practices for the security of solar installations, the overall
Laboratory (PNNL), showed how storage can provide a capacity of Washington’s energy emergency management
range of services to the grid, such as energy shifting, office is stretched thin. Washington should have a full
flexibility and improved distribution system efficiency.229 Washington Office of Energy Infrastructure Security and
227
“Report and Policy Statement on Treatment Of Energy Storage Technologies in Integrated Resource Planning and Resource Acquisition” (Washington Utilities and Transportation
Commission, 2017), https://www.utc.wa.gov/_layouts/15/CasesPublicWebsite/GetDocument.ashx?docID=237&year=2016&docketNumber=161024.
228
“Federal Research Spurs Washington State to Store Energy,” Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 2014, https://www.pnnl.gov/NEWS/release.aspx?id=1060.
229
Vilayanur V. Viswanathan et al., “Washington Clean Energy Fund: Energy Storage System Performance Test Plans and Data Requirements” (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, April 17,
2017), https://doi.org/10.2172/1474881.
230
“Creating Smart Communities: A Guide for State Policymakers” (National Conference of State Legislatures, 2020), https://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/energy/Smart_Communities_
v03_11_20_35545.pdf. p. 19.
231
Coley Girouard, “The State of Advanced Metering Infrastructure and Time-Varying Rates, in Three Maps and One Graph. The Leaders – and Laggards – May Surprise You.,” Advanced Energy
Perspectives (blog), accessed October 29, 2020, https://blog.aee.net/the-state-of-advanced-metering-infrastructure-and-time-varying-rates-in-three-maps-and-one-graph.-the-leaders-and-
laggards-may-surprise-you. Some stakeholders also express concern about AMI as a tool to perform remote shutoffs and enable workforce reductions.
232
Dockets U-180525, adoption order 7/29/2020 and Dockets U-180117, policy guidance issued on 4/10/2018.
124 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Emergency Management modeled on the U.S. gency management offices about data uses and oppor-
Department of Energy Office of Cybersecurity, Energy, tunities; review current industry standards for demand
Security and Emergency Response (DOE CESAR).233 response equipment; coordinate with key state agen-
cies and other stakeholders to identify what standards
A fully-funded office would coordinate with local are already in place and what needs to be added; provide
emergency management officials to include educational opportunities for energy providers in cyber-
assessment data in local hazard mitigation plans, security best practices; and continue to coordinate with
support applications for FEMA resilience (BRIC) funding NASEO on cybersecurity best practices.
and coordinate energy resilience data and efforts with
other infrastructure planning groups, such as the ACTIONS
Washington Infrastructure System Improvement Team
j Provide support for increased deployment of advanced
(Sync),234 Public Works Board235 and the Infrastructure
metering infrastructure (AMI), with safeguards for
Assistance Coordinating Council.236
privacy and security.
The Energy Emergency Management Director at j Expand the energy emergency management program
Commerce should have the authority and resources to: at the Department of Commerce.
coordinate with utilities and local, state and federal emer-
j Develop statewide energy security standards.
233
“Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response,” Energy.gov, accessed November 1, 2020, https://www.energy.gov/ceser/
office-cybersecurity-energy-security-and-emergency-response.
234
“Sync - System Improvement Team,” Washington State Department of Commerce, accessed November 1, 2020, http://www.commerce.wa.gov/building-infrastructure/
sync-systems-improvement-team/.
235
“Public Works Board - Home Page,” Washington State Department of Commerce, accessed November 1, 2020, http://www.commerce.wa.gov/building-infrastructure/pwb-home-page/.
236
“Infrastructure Assistance Coordinating Council (IACC),” accessed November 1, 2020, https://www.infrafunding.wa.gov/.
Columbia River gorge high desert. Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 125
2.2 Define and Value Storage Resources j The UTC and Commerce should ensure that CETA’s
As the electricity system transforms to 100% clean energy accounting methods accommodate the
resources, there is a likely role for energy storage to charging and discharging of storage resources within
balance the supply and demand for electricity. Storage the electricity grid.
options include pumped hydro systems, battery storage
systems and other technologies.
2.3. Prepare for Widespread Deployment of Distributed
The need for storage resources should be assessed Energy Resources (DERs)
with care because the deep decarbonization modeling Washington’s clean energy transition will require integra-
suggests that there may be other, more cost-effective tion of DERs. Clear policy guidance, a common framework
approaches, such as developing hydrogen production as and better data can help inform utility and local planning
a flexible load. The value proposition for storage in the for DER integration, guard against incompatible technol-
Pacific Northwest may be different from other regions ogy decisions and increase the confidence of investors
where hydro resources are not available for short term and regulators. A voluntary, non-adversarial technology
load balancing.237 roadmap development could accelerate the identification
and prioritization of the requirements for investments,
Long-duration storage, which would enable the region communications, cybersecurity and technical standards.
to hold hydroelectric generation from wet years to dry
years, is a potentially valuable resource. Storage resources There also is a need for a better understanding of the value
are also likely to be an important tool in increasing the of DERs and the capacity of distribution systems to host
resilience of the electricity grid. For example, communi- them. Utilities should perform and publish analyses of
ty-based resilience hubs equipped with on-site renewable hosting capacity—that is, the amount of DERs that can
generation and battery storage could provide vital services be added to the distribution system at a given time and
during natural disasters and extended outages. location without compromising power quality or reliability.
This type of analysis will also assist utilities in meeting
A technology-neutral policy toward capacity and demand their CETA obligation to identify and acquire demand
response resources will allow storage resources to emerge response resources.
where appropriate. Washington should also ensure that
CETA’s energy accounting practices accommodate the Utilities can also identify system constraints, where
charging and discharging of storage resources. DERs might be beneficial to the system. Project develop-
ers can use data from hosting capacity analyses to make
ACTIONS interconnection processes faster and more transparent,
identify the optimal locations to deploy DERs and avoid
j Utilities should establish planning and evaluation
unnecessary distribution grid upgrades.238 An analysis of
methods that appropriately identify, define and
critical loads can help local jurisdictions and emergency
calculate the value of storage for integration and of
managers right size and prioritize DERs to promote
variable renewable energy resources to be considered
resilience on the most important parts of the grid.
as a source of capacity, ancillary services and
The Oregon Public Utilities Commission’s distribution
additional services, such as voltage regulation.
system planning provides a helpful model for the
UTC and individual utilities.239
237
A summary of The Growing Role of Energy Storage in Clean Energy Policy can be found here: https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/the-growing-role-of-energy-storage-in-clean-energy-
policy.aspx
238
Gwen Brown, “California Adopts First Interconnection Rules to Utilize Hosting Capacity Results,” Interstate Renewable Energy Council (blog), 2020, https://irecusa.org/2020/09/
california-adopts-first-interconnection-rules-to-utilize-hosting-capacity-results/.
239
“Distribution System Planning,” Oregon Public Utility Commission, accessed November 30, 2020, https://www.oregon.gov/puc/utilities/Pages/Distribution-System-Planning.aspx.
126 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
DER planning involves analyzing the potential contri-
bution of demand-side resources to energy needs and
resource adequacy while factoring in the distribution
grid upgrades needed to realize that potential. In 2019,
the Legislature adopted policy and practices that utilities
must address if they pursue distributed energy resource
planning.240 However, DER planning remains voluntary for
Washington utilities. The Legislature should continue to
assess whether to maintain this approach or provide more
specific requirements for DER planning.
ACTIONS
j Request support from the U.S. Department of Energy
and PNNL to convene a DER workgroup to identify and
resolve grid architecture barriers to DER deployment.
j Utilities should incorporate comprehensive assess-
ments of the value of DERs in the specific context of Biofuel worker. Argonne National Laboratory-Wes Agresta
individual distribution grids by performing and publish-
ing hosting capacity and critical load studies.
demand response signals.241 The port can be used with
j The Legislature should assess whether voluntary
any number of communications devices and networks,
distribution system planning is the appropriate policy
which might be a proprietary electric utility network or a
approach given the requirements of CETA.
broadband Internet connection, but its value as resource
to balance the power grid exists only with a reliable
2.4. Pursue Universal, Statewide Deployment data connection.242
of Broadband
The electric industry is well-positioned to support
The importance of universal broadband access is
widespread deployment of broadband access, combining
discussed throughout this strategy. Within the electricity
its own communication requirements with those of
sector, the value of broadband access comes from the
education, public safety, business and other parts of
role of communication in a flexible, smart electric grid.
society. Several electric utilities already provide telecom-
The electric grid needs universal communication to
munications services in their service areas. For exam-
manage a diverse portfolio of clean energy resources. This
ple, 15 public utility districts operate telecommunications
approach will require rapid communication of information
systems that are available to retail providers of Internet
across the electricity network to individual devices located
service.243 Utilities can also contribute to a societal solu-
at customers’ premises. Smart, connected end-use equip-
tion as users of a public network where feasible, rather
ment, such as EV chargers and electric water heaters,
than investing in proprietary solutions.
interact with grid operators to maintain reliable service.
ACTION
For example, Washington adopted a requirement that
electric water heaters sold in the state have a built-in j Adopt a state policy to mandate universal
communications port capable of supporting remote broadband access.
240
Chapter 19.280.100 RCW.
241
“Appliance Standards,” Washington State Department of Commerce, accessed November 1, 2020, http://www.commerce.wa.gov/growing-the-economy/energy/appliances/.
242
The communications port is described in this BPA report: “Performance Test Results: CTA-2045 Water Heater: Testing Conducted at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory” (Palo Alto,
CA: EPRI, 2017).
243
“PUDs Providing Telecommunications Services,” Washington Public Utility Districts Association, accessed November 1, 2020, https://www.wpuda.org/telecommunications.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 127
2.5. Advance Grid Modernization with Clean Energy Fund ture planning, flexible and resilient solutions like DERs
Investments in Resilient & Flexible Projects can be introduced much further upstream in the planning
Grid resilience is an excellent investment. According to the process.
National Institute for Building Science, every $1 invested
in resilience funding through federal agencies saves $6 Planning efforts would be enhanced by increased connec-
in averted disaster costs.244, 245 These figures represent tion between utilities and research institutions and the
the savings to physical infrastructure in the face of natu- U.S. Department of Energy, and increased engagement
ral disasters. As recently recommended by the Energy & from the clean tech sector. State funding should lever-
Climate Policy Advisory Committee (ECPAC), the Clean age private, federal or other funding and could include
Energy Fund (CEF) can invest in new technology and infra- programs that increase resilience through microgrid and
structure required for a successful and equitable transition transactive projects, deploy demand response or load
to clean electricity by adding resilience as a project priority. flexibility, especially with large industrial customers, and
ECPAC and Commerce also recognize the need to engage deploy clean energy solutions for critical load centers.
communities on how these funds should be deployed to
ACTIONS
ensure projects are beneficial to local energy resilience.
j Provide state support for flexible and resilient planning
There is also a long history of supporting infrastructure and project development by creating a new cluster
planning assistance in Washington through the Infrastruc- within Commerce’s Office of Economic Development
ture Assistance Coordinating Council,246 which helps local and Competitiveness to focus on utility grid optimiza-
jurisdictions connect with grants and funding. However, tion and DER deployment.
local planning efforts do not often include grid moderniza-
j Target CEF funding to projects that enable flexible load
tion planning. By creating a mechanism for more holistic,
management and increase grid resilience.
institutional support for local clean energy infrastruc-
244
“National Institute of Building Sciences Issues New Report on the Value of Mitigation,” National Institute of Building Sciences, 2018, https://www.nibs.org/news/381874/National-Institute-
of-Building-Sciences-Issues-New-Report-on-the-Value-of-Mitigation.html.
245
“Every $1 Invested in Disaster Mitigation Saves $6,” The Pew Charitable Trusts, accessed November 1, 2020, http://pew.org/2D2JuLb.
246
“Infrastructure Assistance Coordinating Council (IACC).”
Solar installation at the Decatur Island Community Solar Project.
128 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Orcas Power & Light Cooperative
3. Facilitate Community Deployment of tal Health Disparity Map.253 These tools can also be used
Renewable Generation Resources and in partnership with direct service providers like community
Grid Services action partnerships,254 who have a rich history of working
Just as utilities must incorporate equity into their planning, with state agencies and are well situated for qualifying and
state government must address access and equity in its engaging with highly impacted populations. This mapping
own programs and funding. The Legislature has begun to and other recommendations are supported by the work of
signal this change through updated budget instructions the Environmental Justice Task Force.
for the CEF247 and by funding efforts like the state Environ-
mental Justice Task Force,248 which has identified ways
3.1. Increase the Opportunity for Community DERs
that state agencies can incorporate environmental justice
and Energy Program Management
priorities into their work.
Sharing the benefits of DERs allow communities to be
in control of their energy supply, provide local clean job
Historically, state incentives have not been readily acces-
opportunities and bring resilience to the grid. However,
sible to community-scale projects. Under the Renewable
local projects must compete with the economies of scale
Energy System Incentive Program (RESIP),249 over half of
that utility-scale projects provide. In addition to helping
the solar installed was for residential scale solar, while
local jurisdictions obtain the data to help understand the
community solar accounted for just 1% of projects.250
value of resilience on their grid (Section 2), the state
Net metering laws often restrict meter aggregation and
can ensure a more equitable clean energy future by
do not have specific requirements for virtual net meter-
supporting local planning resources, including efforts
ing, limiting access for multifamily projects. Low-income
by Tribal governments.
households can have difficulty taking advantage of incen-
tives,251 and a significant gap in adoption of distributed
Policies must recognize the individual needs of Tribes
solar technologies exists for communities of color.252
across the state and help leverage local energy resources,
such as bioenergy, or support projects that promote
To address the inequities created by previous efforts as
energy independence, such as microgrids. Both public and
deployment of DERs is accelerated, community engage-
private entities can create carve-outs in existing programs
ment and understanding of opportunities for local capac-
to account for the unique tax status of Tribes and the
ity-building must be prioritized. Public processes like the
structure of land ownership that may prevent Tribes from
King County Climate Equity Task Force and communi-
taking advantage of some financial tools. Programs should
ty-based participatory research provide models of equita-
help leverage funding from the DOE Tribal Energy Office.
ble and accessible approaches to this work.
Consideration could be given to forming energy districts
Priority communities can be identified using statewide
as community institutions modeled after Conservation
energy equity indicators and environmental health and
Districts.255 In addition, a resilience hub program256 would
cumulative impact analysis tools such as the Environmen-
247
“Substitute Senate Bill 6090” (2018), http://leap.leg.wa.gov/leap/budget/lbns/1719Cap6090-S.SL.pdf.
248
“Environmental Justice Task Force.”
249
Chapter 82.16.165 RCW.
250
“The Renewable Energy System Incentive Program: Legislative Report: October 2019” (Energy Program, Washington State University, 2019), http://www.energy.wsu.edu/documents/
Renewable%20Energy%20System%20Incentive%20Program%20Report-Oct2019.pdf.
251
Bentham Paulos, “Bringing the Benefits of Solar Energy to Low-Income Consumers: A Guide for States & Municipalities” (Clean Energy States Alliance, 2017), https://www.cesa.org/wp-
content/uploads/Bringing-the-Benefits-of-Solar-to-Low-Income-Consumers.pdf.
252
Deborah A. Sunter, Sergio Castellanos, and Daniel M. Kammen, “Disparities in Rooftop Photovoltaics Deployment in the United States by Race and Ethnicity,” Nature Sustainability 2, no. 1
(January 2019): 71–76, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0204-z.
253
“Washington Environmental Health Disparities Map” (Washington Department of Health, n.d.), https://www.doh.wa.gov/DataandStatisticalReports/WashingtonTrackingNetworkWTN/
InformationbyLocation/WashingtonEnvironmentalHealthDisparitiesMap.
254
“Washington State Community Action Partnership > Home,” accessed November 1, 2020, http://www.wapartnership.org/.
255
Conservation districts were established as part of the New Deal and authorized in Washington in 1939 through RCW 89.50. See also, “A Geography of Change” (Winneshiek Energy District,
2019), https://energydistrict.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/A-Geography-of-Change-full.pdf.
256
Kristin Baja, “Resilience Hubs” (Urban Sustainability Directors Network, 2018), https://www.usdn.org/uploads/cms/documents/usdn_resiliencehubs_2018.pdf.
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 129
Solar installer.
support deployment of solar generation, storage and To help community projects get off the ground, the state
microgrids at community centers to provide the surround- can allocate resources to fund community-centered feasi-
ing community free access to essential services, such bility studies and other outreach and education for flexible
as heating, cooling, device charging and internet access and resilient energy projects. Funds can also be used to
in the event of a grid outage. develop training resources including sample project plans,
design standards and sample past projects and templates.
Providing grants and technical assistance to commu- Streamlined applications and eligibility can be imple-
nity centers for the development of resilience hubs in mented to eliminate redundancies and the complexity of
both rural and urban areas of need could encourage local grant application processes.
engagement and community independence. Projects may
also provide important insights into community-focused ACTIONS
resilience metrics, which can used to inform a “value of
j Develop resources for expanded outreach, technical
resilience” to be incorporated into regional planning.
assistance and education for community efforts.
In some rural communities, increased support of j Create specific programs for Tribal energy projects that
opportunities for agrivoltaics — the beneficial co-location promote Tribal sovereignty and self-determination.
of solar panels and agricultural activity — could demon-
j Support the development of community resilience hubs
strate that solar projects do not have to compete for
and energy districts.
land with agricultural production. The state should
consider a statewide standard for pollinator-friendly solar j Support clean energy projects that benefit agricultural
(see Maryland and Minnesota) and consider funding communities.
research and pilot projects.
130 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
3.2 Develop Tools for Equitable Energy Distribution and The Legislature and Commerce should use equity design
Deployment elements for CEF and related energy programs. Those
Energy equity indicators, data collection and a publicly elements could include a lower or no match requirement
accessible energy equity dashboard would assist in ensur- based on applicant type, a requirement that grant appli-
ing a just transition. The indicators should include both cants identify how their project will lead to more equitable
outcome and process measures. Outcome measures, outcomes, incentives to include underrepresented commu-
such as increasing renewable energy in communities, nities or organizations on project teams and ensuring
must be supported by community engagement process community-driven outreach and participation in program
metrics to hold state agencies accountable for increasing design and implementation.
meaningful engagement with communities.
ACTIONS
To understand current inequities associated with disburse-
j Perform an equity assessment of existing programs
ment of energy funds and incentives, Commerce should
related to renewable energy.
review past and existing programs that support clean
energy (e.g., Clean Energy Fund, Energy Efficiency and j Explore the adoption of energy equity indicators and a
Solar grants) and other state incentives, such as the RESIP publicly accessible energy equity dashboard, including
and net metering. Commerce should compare the loca- both outcome and process measures.
tions of projects supported by public programs with the j Use an equity and environmental justice lens for CEF
Environmental Health Disparities Map to identify highly
program structure, design elements and participation.
impacted populations. The outcome can be used to iden-
tify gaps in service and specific use cases (i.e., multifamily
housing) for further investment.
Railway station. Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 131
Wind turbine, Goldendale, WA.
132 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy Clean Energy Transition Institute
List of Appendices
The following appendices accompany the Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy and are
located on the Department of Commerce’s website.
Appendix A – Deep Decarbonization Modeling Technical Report, December 11, 2020
Appendix B – Data Accompanying Deep Decarbonization Modeling Technical Report, December 11, 2020
Appendix C – Transportation, December 31, 2020
Appendix D – Heat Pumps, December 31, 2020
Appendix E – Economic Impacts of Decarbonization Pathways Modeling, December 31, 2020
Appendix F – Washington GDP by Sector, November 23, 2020
Appendix G – Building Emissions by Fuel Type, November 24, 2020
Appendix H – WA State Energy Strategy PNNL Presentation to CETI, October 9, 2020
Appendix I – Washington State Energy Policy Inventory, August 29, 2020
Appendix J – Bibliography, December 28, 2020
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 133
List of Acronyms
AMI advanced metering infrastructure LIHEAP Low-Income Home Energy Assistance
Program
ASCENT Aviation Sustainability Center
MPO metropolitan planning organization
BEV Battery electric vehicles
NASEO National Association of
BPA Bonneville Power Administration
State Energy Offices
BPS building performance standard
NWPP Northwest Power Pool
BRIC Building Resilience in Communities
NOx nitrous dioxide
CAR Clean Air Rule
PACER property assessed clean energy
CCS carbon capture and storage and resilience
CCUS carbon capture, utilization and storage PM2.5 Fine inhalable particles, with diameters that
CEF Clean Energy Fund are generally 2.5 micrometers and smaller
CEI Clean Energy Institute PNNL Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
CETA Clean Energy Transformation Act R&D research and development
CHP combined heat and power RA resource adequacy
CO2 carbon dioxide RESIP Renewable Energy System
Incentive Program
CTR commute trip reduction
RIO Regional Investment and
DER distributed energy resource Operations Model
DES Department of Enterprise Services RTPO regional transportation planning
DOE United States Department of Energy organization
ECPAC Energy & Climate Policy Advisory RUC road usage charge
Committee SAFN Sustainable Aviation Fuels
EFSEC Energy Facility Site Evaluation Council Northwest Initiative
EIM energy imbalance market SEEP State Efficiency and
Environmental Performance Office
EITE energy intensive and trade exposed
SOx sulfur dioxide
EJ environmental justice
TDM transportation demand management
EPD environmental product declaration
TOD Transit-oriented development
EV electric vehicle
USDA United States Department of Agriculture
EVSE electric vehicle supply equipment
UTC Utilities and Transportation Commission
FCV fuel cell vehicle
VMT vehicle miles traveled
FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency
WAP Weatherization Assistance Program
GDP gross domestic product
WSDOT Washington State Department of
GW gigawatt
Transportation
HFC hydrofluorocarbon
WSF Washington State Ferries
HVAC heating, ventilation, and air conditioning
WSTC Washington State Transportation
JTC Joint Transportation Committee Commission
LCFS low carbon fuel standard ZEV zero-emissions vehicle
LDV light-duty vehicle
134 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Washington State
Energy Strategy Advisory
Committee Members
George Caan Nancy Hirsh Chris Roe
Executive Director Executive Director Senior Manager
Washington Public Utility NW Energy Coalition Amazon
Districts Association
Nicole Hughes John Rothlin
Jason Campbell Executive Director Manager of Washington
Chief Executive Officer Renewable Northwest Government Relations
Sovereign Power Avista Corporation
Paul Jewell
Reuven Carlyle, Senator Policy Director Ted Sheldon
Washington State Legislature Washington State Senator
Association of Counties Washington State Legislature
Reeves Clippard
Chief Executive Officer Dan Kirschner Dan Wilson
A&R Solar Executive Director President
Northwest Gas Association Local 338 United Steelworkers
Dave Danner, Chair
Washington Utilities and Kent Lopez Alex Ybarra
Transportation Commission General Manager Representative
Washington Rural Electric Washington State Legislature
Kathleen Drew, Chair
Cooperative Association
Energy Facility Site
Evaluation Council Bruce Martin Advisory Committee Facilitation
Energy Resource Manager Ross Strategic facilitated the
Sandi Edgemon
WestRock Tacoma Advisory Committee process from
Business Services Manager
City of Richland Clay Norris January to December 2020.
Power Management Manager
Will Einstein Ross Strategic
Tacoma Power
Director of Product
Bill Ross
Development and Growth Patrick Oshie
Founder
Puget Sound Energy Washington Council Member
Northwest Power and Tom Beierle
Martin Gibbins
Conservation Council Principal
Climate and Energy Issues Chair
League of Women Voters Rebecca Ponzio Andy Chinn
Climate & Fossil Fuel Senior Associate
Deric Gruen
Program Director
Program Director Heather Christopher
Washington Environmental Council
Front and Centered Associate
Alex Ramel
Matt Harris
Representative
Director of Government Affairs and
Washington State Legislature
Assistant Executive Director
Washington State Potato
Commission
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 135
Technical Advisory Process
The Clean Energy Transition Institute consulted the following resources as part of its technical
advisory process.
Alliance for Transportation Ecotope New Buildings Institute
Electrification Henry Odum Kim Cheslack
Phil Jones Jim Edelson
Emerald Cities Collaborative
American Council for an Steve Gelb Northwest Ecobuilding
Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE)
Tama Semo Chris Van
Neil Elliot
Bryan Howard Fehr and Peers Northwest Energy Coalition
Aaron Gooze Amy Wheeless
American Institute of
Architects (AIA) Forth Mobility Northwest Energy Efficiency
Kirsten Smith Rhett Lawrence Alliance (NEEA)
Jeanette Shaw Jeff Harris
ARUP
Emily Moore
Elizabeth Joyce Front and Centered
Sameer Ranade Northwest Energy Efficiency Council
BlueGreen Alliance
Melanie Danuser
Jose Tengco King County
Kerry Meade
Jessica Koski Rachel Brombaugh
Stan Price
Kathleen Petri
California ARB
Nunes-Ueno Consulting
Rajinder Sahota King County Metro
Paulo Nunes-Ueno
Carrie Lee
Carbon Leadership Forum
Office of Sustainability and
Kate Simonen LMN Architects Environment
Kjell Anderson Christine Bunch
Cascadia Law Group
Dennis McLerran Long Building Technologies Optimum Building
Craig Engelbrecht Court Olson
City of Seattle
Duane Jonlin McKinstry Pacific Northwest National
Andrea Pratt Ash Awad Laboratory (PNNL)
Ric Cochrane Shannon Bates
Clean Energy Institute
Hendrik Van Hemert Angela Becker Dippmann
Daniel T. Schwartz
Microsoft Thomas Brouns
Climate Solutions Casie Davidson
Elizabeth Wilmott
Vlad Gutman-Britten Thomas Heibel
Kelly Hall Mount Adams Resource Stewards
John Holladay
Leah Missik Jay McLaughlin
Carl Imhoff
Deepa Sivarajan Natural Resources Michael Kintner-Meyer
David Van't Hof Defense Council (NRDC) Mark Nutt
Duwamish River Mohit Chabbra Melissa Perdue
Cleanup Coalition (WA) Nelson Nygaard Dennis Stiles
Adrienne Hampton Tim Payne Tim Wolf
James Rasmussen
136 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Passive House Institute US Edmond Young Department of Ecology
Graham Wright Jennifer Ziegler Neil Caudill
Stuart Clark
Plug-In America Transportation Choice Coalition (WA)
James DeMay
Joel Levin Hester Serebrin
Bill Drumheller
Katherine Stainken
Union of Concerned Scientists Gail Sandlin
Port of Seattle Adrienne Alvord Kim Wigfield
Stephanie Meyn Don Anair
Utilities and Transportation
Jason Barbose
Public Generating Pool Commission, Energy Facility
Matthew Beyer Site Council
Therese Hampton
Jeremy Martin Amy Andrews
Public Power Council
UW Clean Energy and Sustainability Sonia Bumpus
Michael Deen
Tony Usibelli Dave Danner
Lauren Tenney Denison
Kathleen Drew
Washington Environmental Council
Puget Sound Energy Ann Rendahl
Eleanor Bastian
Kara Durbin Kendra White
Ben Farrow Washington State University
Department of Transportation
Brandon Houskeeper Todd Currier
Kevin Bartoy
Janet Kelly
Washington State University— Jason Beloso
Puget Sound SAGE Office of Clean Tech Jason Biggs
Katrina Peterson Michael Wolcott Anthony Buckley
Recurve Zero Waste Washington Tonia Buell
Carmen Best Mariel Fernandez Thuraisingham Allison Camden
Barb Chamberlain
Regulatory Assistance Project Department of Commerce
Celeste Gillman
Jim Lazar Joshua Berger
Brian Lagerberg
Glenn Blackmon
Rocky Mountain Institute Karin Landsberg
Michael Breish
Leah Louis-Prescott Megan White
Michael Furze
Kerri Woehler
Seattle 2030 District Chris Green
Matthew Combe Brian Hatfield Governor’s Staff
Kate Kelly Debbie Driver
Shift Zero
Scott Kuhta Jennifer Hennessey
Rachel Koller
Sarah Lee Charles Knutson
Doug Howell
Peter Moulton Lauren McCloy
Simon Fraser University Chuck Murray Reed Schuler
Chris Bataille Greg Nothstein Department of Natural Resources
Sound Transit Elizabeth Osborne Cassie Bordelon
Miranda Redinger Emily Salzburg Tom Bugert
Benjamin Serr Amanda Jahshan
Tacoma Power
Keith Swenson Dan Siemann
Cam LeHouillier
Jasmine Vasavada Dan Stonington
Toyota North America Sarah Vorpahl
Stani Baker Deanah Watson Department of Fish & Wildlife
Glenn Choe Hanna Waterstrat Michael D. Garrity
Jason Sekhon Brian Young
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 137
Technical Analysis and Strategy Design
The Clean Energy Transition Institute facilitated the technical advisory process, design and production of the
Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy from March to December with the following consultants:
Clean Energy Transition Institute Inclusive Economics
Aditi Bansal Betony Jones
Policy and Research Analyst Founder
Marc Daudon One Visual Mind
Senior Fellow
Karen Beck
Nicole Larson Partner
Research Assistant
Carol Maglitta
David Paolella Partner
Policy and Research Analyst
Stockholm Energy Institute
Eileen V. Quigley
Executive Director Derik Broekhoff
Senior Scientist
Evolved Energy Research Michael Lazarus
Jeremy Hargreaves U.S. Center Director
Principal
2050 Institute
FTI Consulting Poppy Storm
Scott Nystrom Founder and Director of
Senior Director Innovation
Hammerschlag, LLC
Roel Hammerschlag
Principal
138 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
Transmission tower, Bonneville Lock and Dam.
Clean Energy Transition Institute Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy 139
We strengthen communities
Back Cover
DECEMBER 2020
www.commerce.wa.gov/growing-the-economy/energy/2021-state-energy-strategy/
140 Washington 2021 State Energy Strategy
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