Workforce Development & Tourism Subcommittee Meeting Packet, September 18, 2019
Summary
Meeting packet for the Workforce Development & Tourism Subcommittee of the Florida House of Representatives Commerce Committee, Wednesday, September 18, 2019, 3:00 pm - 5:00 pm, chaired by Rene Plasencia with Jose R. Oliva as Speaker. The agenda lists a presentation by the Southern Regional Education Board (SREB) relating to workforce development issues in Florida. The attached SREB material, Education, Automation and the Workforce, presented by Meagan Crowe, Policy Analyst, says just 5% of jobs are completely automatable. It also says 42% of Florida adults had no education beyond high school by 2017, and that by 2030 there will be 45 working-age adults for every 55 dependent people in Florida.
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Workforce Development & Tourism
Subcommittee
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
3:00 PM - 5:00 PM
12 HOB
Meeting Packet
Jose Oliva Rene Plasencia
Speaker Chair
The Florida House of Representatives
Commerce Committee
Workforce Development & Tourism Subcommittee
Jose R. Oliva Rene Plasencia
Speaker Chair
Meeting Agenda
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
3:00 pm - 5:00 pm
Webster Hall (212 Knott)
I. Call to Order
II. Roll Call
Ill. Welcome and Opening Remarks
IV. Presentation by the Southern Regional Education Board (SREB) relating to
workforce development issues in Florida
V. Closing Remarks
VI. Adjournment
3 17 House Office Building, 402 South Monroe Street, Tallahassee, FL 32399-1300
(850) 717-4870
Education, Automation
and the Workforce
Florida State Impact
Meagan Crowe, Policy Analyst
Policy Bnet I J"" 2019
The SREB Region 's
Unprepared Economic Outlook
and Unaware The Potential Impact of Automation and Al
Many Alnc,1cw.l work~ 1 lind Lh, nlllo.·1- in a coolmUtJU111iru~r b:J k«p up
with adv11X'.ftl in 1utan:ation and arti flc bl mtellitma that oould potentially
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te,ted to dtl.iver pa ckasn to h omM alJIOl'lomouM): A robotic im•\iewtt in
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wew'kingadults nerd to ada pt to con1p.iteriU'd work Rci:Mtiu. &b.ny ner d
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The SREB Region 's Economic Outlook
44 0,
Preparing the Workforce for eo e ee
a Decade of Uncertainty
J oan Lord, Vice President
Meagan Crowe, CNP, Policy Analyst
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SREB Meagan Crowe I September 2019 3
Push toward middle-skill jobs
• More than a high school diploma, less
than a bachelor's degree
• Pay mid-level incomes:$35 - $75,000
• Job growth is 51% from 2015 and 2023
• 46% gap between available jobs and
skilled workers in 2015
SREB Meagan Crowe I September 2019 4
By 2017, 42% of Florida adults had
no education beyond high school.
Almost 1.6 million had a
high school credential
and no more
420 thousand had some
high school, but no credential
240 thousand had less than
a 9th grade education
SREB Meagan Crowe I September 2019 5
SREB Meagan Crowe I September 2019 6
Just 5% of jobs are completely automatable, but
44 °/o of all work activities have automation potential.
In the top 5 industries the potential is often greater:
Food Preparation Sales Office & Healthcare Transportation
& Serving Administrative Practitioners
Note: The top five industnes employ the most people
36°/o 58°/o
workers vulnerable workers
highly vulnerable employed in the
to rising workforce top 5 industries
skill demands in 2016
SREB Meagan Crowe I September 2019 7
If state and industry leaders do
not act now, more adults will be:
• underemployed or unemployable
• earning incomes below the poverty level
• dependent on social welfare services
• unable to launch the next generation
SREB Meagan Crowe I September 2019 8
A More Dependent Population
By 2030, for every 55 dependent people in
Florida there will be just 45 working-age adults
to provide for theni.
2017
2020
2030
SREB Meagan Crowe I September 2019 9
Are students prepared?
Parents today: 25 to 44 year-olds
40°/o had a high school credential or less in 2017
-,-
Of 8th graders whose parents had no education after high school
--
-- 36 °/o were below Basic on NAEP reading and
:::::::: ::::::
I'=- I -='I
c=i
ODO
000
000 44 °/o were below Basic on NAEP math
These percentages were just
22°/o I~§ 34°/o l§§§
for students whose parents had
some education beyond high school
SREB Meagan Crowe I September 2019
10
Prepare for today and tomorrow
Ensure that Ensure workers
business and are prepared for
industry have the jobs that will be
workers they available in
need now the future
SREB Meagan Crowe I September 2019 11
Systemic Approach:
· at all education levels
· align federal ESSA, Perkins V and
WIOA efforts and use funding
wisely
· with agencies working together to
develop seamless pathways that
lead to meaningful credentials
and degrees
SREB Meagan Crowe I September 2019 12
Meagan Crowe, CNP, Policy Analyst
Meagan.Crowe@SREB.org
(404) 879-5587
SREB Twitter: @SREBeducation
Unprepared
and Unaware
Report: Unprepared and Unaware
.,. , https: //www .sreb.org/publication/ unprepared-and-unaware
PreJ).\ring th£> Workforce for
a Oreade of Untc11a101\ Webinars: Preparing the Workforce for a Decade of Uncertainty
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Brief: The SREB Region's Economic Outlook & Infographics
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Fact Book
on I lti!ht>r Edu<.:.auon
Fact Book on Higher Education
https://www.sreb.org/fact-book-higher-education-o
Unprepared
and Unaware
Upskilling the Workforce for a Decade of Uncertainty
Unprepared and Unaware
Upskilling the Workforce for a Decade of Uncertainty
Executive Summary
America is currently experiencing a dynamic shift in employment
for many working-age adults. As companies automate basic retail States hoping to strengthen the
and manufacturing jobs, they eliminate many of the low-skill jobs chances of vulnerable workers
available to adults with low levels of education. But technological
getting and retaining good jobs
advancements also create new positions, many requiring education
after high school. These middle-skilljobs, demanding more than a - or qualifying for jobs that
high school credential but less than a college degree, will continue businesses need to fill -
to emerge at the same time low-skill jobs go away. Adult workers
will have to provide effective
who raise their education levels to qualify for these jobs will be
better prepared to benefit from the new labor market. Adults who adult education programs.
do not raise their skills may not.
The question for state leaders isn't whether there will be sufficient jobs in the future but whether there will be
enough skilled workers to fill them. States will need to invest as always in helping low-skilled adults earn diplomas.
but also in helping them keep up with technological advancements in the job market. Otherwise, they will become
increasingly vulnerable to job loss, low pay and poor health outcomes. And their children will likely become low-
skilled as well, creating a costly. multi-generational challenge for states and businesses.
A shortage of sufficiently trained workers makes it difficult for businesses to fill important jobs. so they will have to
make greater investments in training their employees. Low-skilled adults are costly for states too, as they earn less
and pay less in taxes. They are less likely to vote or volunteer for civic projects. States hoping to strengthen the
chances for vulnerable workers to get and retain good jobs - or qualify for jobs that businesses need to fill -
will have to provide effective adult education programs. Their efforts will require creativity and resourcefulness.
The 2014 reauthorization of the federal Workforce Innovation
and Opportunity Act provides state leaders a clear roadmap
INSIDE
for preparing undereducated adults for a better future. WIOA How Technology Affects the Workforce 3
strengthens accountability standards and requires states to Where SREB States Stand 3
coordinate statewide and local efforts to address regional
The High Cost of Undereducated Adults 6
workforce needs. The legislation calls for a stronger focus
on workers' needs and challenges states to implement best Middle-Skill Jobs 7
instructional practices in adult education. It also requires
How Adults Can Catch Up 9
that states adopt Integrated Education and Training programs,
often led by separate instructors to help adults improve basic What's Affecting Enrollments 15
skills and earn a high school diploma while they prepare for What States Can Do 17
specific occupations and work toward industry credentials.
How SREB Can Help 20
Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019 I 1
The legislation stipulates that states incorporate six core programs - and allows them to incorporate up to
11 partner programs - into their state WlOA plans. One of these is Perkins V, or the Strengthening Career and
Technical Education for the 21st Century Act. CTE programs prepare adults for middle-skill jobs by providing the
advanced, industry-specific technical skills needed to fill such positions.
In improving adult education programs, states are also faced with decreased funding and enrollments. Funding for
these programs fell sharply during the recession and has not fully recovered. States will need to bolster program
funding and provide support services if they hope to enroll more adults in education programs. Industry investment
could also help states enroll more adults and ensure that they earn credentials that can lead to employment.
The efforts that states make to help adults train for stable employment will improve outcomes for their children as
well, leading to a healthier economy both now and in the long term. What can states do to help more adults - and
their children - reach a middle-skills level?
1. Adopt the College and Career Readiness Standards for Adult Education to establish consistent learning
expectations and foster partnerships with other education providers.
2. Use instructional practices and materials and implementation methods known to be successful.
3. Provide teachers adequate training and professional development opportunities.
4. Align CTE and integrative training education course offerings with specific workforce needs, focusing
on skills, not tasks.
5. Require adult education performance measures that are both quantitative and qualitative.
SREB states need to be innovative and bold in prepari ng the current and future generation for ever-changing
workforce demands. SREB is committed to supporting these efforts with data and policy analysis, to help
states make informed decisions to improve adult education programs and ensure the livelihoods of their most
vulnerable adults and their children.
2 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
How is technology affecting the workforce?
America is experiencing a dynamic shift in employment for many working-age
adults. Since the peak of manufacturing in 1979, the United States has lost more Too often changes in
than 7 million factory jobs to automation and other technological advancements. technology occur more
The ones most likely to be automated today require physical and repetitive labor
such as assembly line, customer service and clerical positions, jobs available to quickly than adults
adults with a high school education or less. Restaurants, for instance, are replacing can prepare for them,
their cashiers and servers with self-ordering and self-paying kiosks. Chatbots now
answer incoming sales calls. Computers are the new data entry clerks. Robots are
and many will
assembling cars. There's even a company developing a program to automate legal lose their jobs.
services - much as online tax services have automated the income tax business.
As technology continues to advance in the workplace, the employment gap between those with postsecondary
education or credentials and those without is expected to grow. The McK.insey Global In stitute estimates that by
2030 between 3 and 14 percent of the global workforce will need to be able to perform a completely different job
function than the one they did in 2016. McK.insey estimates that all workers will need to adapt in some way to
working more closely with machines and that if jobs are automated at a rapid pace the outcome could be dramatic:
up to 44 percent of current work activities in the United States could be automated by 2030.
As companies automate their basic retail and manufacturing jobs, increasing their production rates and earnings,
they are pushing low-skilled positions out of the labor market. As these low-skill jobs disappear, highly specialized
jobs emerge in which people must operate and maintain the machines that are taking their places. These new
middle-skilljobs require more than a high school credential but less than a college degree, and these too will become
increasingly sophisticated as technology advances. So, adult workers who improve their education levels will find
opportunities in the new labor market. For business owners and policymakers, the question isn't whether there
will be jobs. The question is whether there will be enough skilled workers to fill them.
Where do SREB states stand?
Of the 75 million adults, ages 18 to 64 in SREB states
In SREB states in 2017, more than 12 percent of adults
ages 18 to 64 - over 9 million - had less than a high
•••••••••
••••••••••
school education, and 28 percent - some 21 million -
had a high school credential and no more. These adults
•••••••••
••••••••••
21 million
had a high
••••••••••
school credential
will need significant training and education to obtain and no college work.
the skills they need to keep up with technological
advancements in today's job market. States will need to ••••••••••
••••••••••
6million
had some high
••••••••••
school but no
invest not only in helping adults earn diplomas, but also credential , and
in ensuring that they boost their skills significantly.
(See page 9 for equivalency options for the high school
diploma.)
••••••••••
••••••••••
Source: U.S. Census B11eau, 2017
3million
had less than a 9th
grade education.
Even a relatively small proportion of low-skilled workers in the workforce is detrimental to the overall economy.
It hurts not only the poorly educated individuals but also their families, the businesses that need to hire them and
can't, their states, and the nation.
Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019 I 3
States have made too little progress in helping these adults boost their academic and workplace skills. By 2017, the
region still had nearly 3 million 18- to 64-year-old adults with less than a 9th grade education - an improvement
of only 300,000 in nine years. In that same year. 6.3 million adults had reached high school but not graduated.
compared with 7.1 million nine years earlier. Over half of these adults were between the ages of25 and 44.
SREB reported that states were working to improve adult learning outcomes in its 2010 report, A Smart Move in
Tough Times. But even then, enrollment growth in adult education programs was not keeping pace with workforce
demands.
SREB's 2015 commission report on career and technical education, Credentials for All, detailed the challenges facing
young adults who do not earn postsecondary credentials. "For many young adults, the 20s are a lost decade," the
report found. 'J\fter years of underemployment or unemployment, many return to school when they are nearly 30~
As technology advances, this is - or will become - the reality for many more adults in SREB states than just those
in their late 20s and early 30s. Four in 10 SREB adults will need to improve their skill levels if they hope to keep their
jobs and earn good salaries.
These reports offered sound advice for SREB states to increase their residents' educational attainment levels and
meet workforce needs:
• Ensure that adult learning efforts are coordinated statewide
• Set statewide goals for adult learning
• Be wise and creative stewards of limited resources
• Create relevant pathways that align secondary, postsecondary and workplace learning
• Ensure that adults earn industry-recognized credentials or postsecondary certificates and degrees
at the associate degree level or higher
Fulfilli ng these recommendations is vital for SREB states, now more than ever.
What's the basic educational problem for SREB states?
According to the U.S. Census Bureau in 2017, the employment rate in SREB states for working-age adults without
a high school credential was 12 percentage points lower than for adults with one - whose rate was in turn eight
points lower than for adults with some college credits or an associate degree, and 17 points lower than for adults
with a bachelor's degree or more.
In 2016, Georgetown University's Center for Workforce and Education reported that adults with high school
diplomas or less are increasingly vulnerable in the job market. During the 2007-10 recession, workers with a high
school diploma lost 5.6 million jobs, recovering only 80,000 of them by 2016. Workers with an associate degree or
some college lost 1.8 million jobs in the recession, but that sector regained 3.1 million positions by 2016 - nearly
double. And adults with a bachelor's degree or more actually gained 187,000 jobs during the 2007-10 recession, with
a total gain of 8.6 million by 2016.
Georgetown found that of the 11.6 million jobs the economy regained following the recession, nearly three-quarters
went to workers with a bachelor's degree or more. This indicates that workers with a high school diploma may, in
difficult times, be replaced by more highly-skilled adults even in positions they are qualified to fill.
Technological advancement in the workplace often creates more jobs than it eliminates. But the new positions often
require higher skills, which is why retraining adults with low education levels is crucial if states are to ensure they
can fill new positions as old ones disappear. Yet it is difficult to train an adult with low proficiency in basic skills -
one who can't read well, for instance - if the task is to write computer code or troubleshoot an assembly line robot.
4 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
The Employment Rate Gap between adults
without a high school credential and those with one
was 13 percent nationwide.
SREB 12%
Alabama 18%
Arkansas 14%
Delaware I' 9%
Florida 12%
Georgia 13%
Kentucky 24%
Louisiana 21 %
Maryland 13%
Mississippi I 190/o
North Carolina 13%
Oklahoma 13%
South Carolina 17%
Tennessee 18%
Texas 8%
Virginia 12%
West Virginia 27%
Note: Adults ages 25 to 64
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017
Because employment rates are directly related to a person's educational attainment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
uses attainment levels to track the employability of adults. BLS assigns occupations to one of eight categories using
entry-level education requirements, from no formal educational credential to doctoral or professional degree.
From 2007 to 2016, BLS found that employment opportunities in the United States increased across all levels by
6 million, with 4 million requiring a bachelor's or master's degree. This shift in job requirements is expected to
continue throughout the coming decade. Jobs requiring only a high school diploma are projected to grow at a
rate of 5.1 percent between 2016 and 2026 - more slowly than the overall national projected rate of7.4 percent.
Automation will accelerate in the coming years. Conservative estimates from researchers at McKinsey Global
Institute show 23 percent of work activities in the United States being automated by 2030. If this estimate is accurate.
39 percent of jobs available in 2016 will be lost, with just as many new jobs created. Between 2016 and 2030, workers
with a high school education or less will see more jobs lost than gained, while many more jobs will be created for
workers with a bachelor's degree or more.
The technological expansion throughout the U.S. job market means that working-age adults with lower levels of
educational attainment will be increasingly likely to be unemployed. Fewer jobs requiring a high school diploma
or less will be available, and those left will be lower paid and offer fewer chances for promotion. More adults with
low proficiency levels will be stuck in jobs increasingly likely to be automated, and they may end up out of work
altogether if they cannot increase their skills.
Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019 I 5
The High Cost of Undereducated Adults
The consequences of an undereducated population
compound at state and national levels. Adults with lower For every 100 adults who earned wages
educational attainment are more likely to experience below the poverty level,
unemployment and poverty. By 2017, 66 percent of all
working-age adults who had a high school credential were
employed, compared with just 54 percent who did not. 35 had only a high
In that same year, 9.6 million adults in the SREB region school credential
earned incomes below the poverty level. Of these, two-
thirds had a high school education or less. More than and
26 percent of adults without a high school credential
earned wages below the poverty level. That percentage 29 had less than a
drops to 15 for those with a high school credential.
high school diploma.
Adults with less than a high school education also earn
Note: Adults 25 and older
less and pay less in taxes. The Organisation for Economic Source: U.S. Cen,us Bureau, 2017
Co-operation and Development estimates that 13 percent
of the average variation in wages can be attributed to
educational attainment. In 2017, the median income earned
by working adults 25 and older who graduated from high
school was $6,372 more than for those who did not have
a high school diploma. Researchers at the College Board
determined that adults with a high school credential pay
$2,400 more in taxes than adults without one. So, adults
who do not currently have a high school credential
would likely contribute $122 billion more to the SREB
region in state and federal taxes every year if they were
able to earn a diploma. Adults with less than a high school education
In 2017, SREB states also ranked low on measures of earned 76 cents for every dollar earned
both health and wellness, occupying the 10 lowest by adults with only a high school credential.
spots in the nation's overall health rankings. As in earlier Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017
reports, adults with less than a high school credential
are more likely than their more educated peers to have
diabetes, heart disease, heart attacks and high blood
pressure. Even now, working-age adults who have less Educational Attainment and Health Insurance
Coverage Status for Adults, Ages 26 to 64
than a high school credential are less likely to have
private health insurance - if they have any at all. And
..
public insurance is costly. In 2017, the SREB region Public Private No Coverage
spent almost $62 billion state-dollars on Medicaid
alone. Less than a High •
School Credential '
•
' .
Adults without a high school education are also less
likely to vote and to volunteer for civic and service
•
projects. Voter participation generally rises and falls
with educational attainment. And adults with less than High School •
Credential '
a high school credential volunteer half as often as those
with one. With an estimated service value of $3,200 per
volunteer, the value of these unrealized volunteer Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017
contributions across the SREB region was $4.7 billion
in 2015.
6 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
What are middle-skill jobs?
Middle-skill jobs, which are typically defined by a person's level of education, require more than a high school
education but less than a bachelor's degree. People with middle-skill jobs often have associate degrees,
postsecondary vocational certificates, or significant on-the-job training. They earn mid-level incomes -
usually between $35,000 and $75,000. Between 2014 and 2024, projected job growth for middle-skill jobs in the SREB
region is 52 percent. The increasing number of middle-skill jobs and the declining number oflow-skill jobs means
fewer positions will be available for adults with low levels of attainment and skills, but more will be available for
workers with middle skills.
In 2018. Georgetown University's Center for Workforce and Education highlighted a shift among middle-skill jobs
- away from more traditional blue-collar positions and toward more skilled technical jobs. By 2016, blue-collar
occupations, such as manufacturing and construction jobs, made up 21 percent of employment in the U.S. work-
force - down 7 percentage points from 1991. During that same time, middle-skill service jobs, such as healthcare,
information technology and white-collar business services added 2.7 million positions - accounting for 77 percent
of middle-skill job growth.
According to the National Skills Coalition, vacancies in middle-ski11 jobs will be the greatest threat to state
economies in the South. Every high-skill job generally requires a team of middle-skilled supporters. Doctors,
lawyers and scientists need teams of qualified, technically-trained workers to support their work. such as licensed
nurses and paralegals. Manufacturing plants likewise need highly-skilled workers to support their technical
equipment. In 2016, middle-skill jobs accounted for 54 percent of the U.S. labor market. But just 44 percent of
working-age adults nationwide were trained to a middle-skill level.
The Middle-Skills Gap between
workers with a middle-skill level and middle-skill jobs
available to them was 10 percent nationwide.
SREB 11 %
Alabama 12%
Arkansas 10%
Delaware 8%
Florida 9%
Georgia 12%
Kentucky 10%
Louisiana 11 %
Maryland 10%
Mississippi 8%
North Carolina 11 %
Oklahoma 8%
South Carolina 11 %
Tennessee 13%
Texas 14%
Virginia 10%
West Virginia 8%
Note: Adults ages 25 to 64
Source: National Skills Coalition , 2015
Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019 I 7
How serious is the skills gap and why does it matter?
In 2007, the United States dropped off the list of nations with the highest percentage of adults ages 25 to 34 who hold
a high school diploma, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development. Ten years later, the
United States moved back into the ninth spot on the list. Still, by 2017, almost 8 million of the 64 million working-age
adults in SREB states - one in eight - had not earned a high school credential. And while working-age adults in
the region make up 37 percent of all U.S. working-age adults, 41 percent of those without a high school credential reside
in SREB states.
Researchers at the OECD found that educational attainment- the highest level
of education that an individual has completed - is the variable most strongly The Proficiency Continuum
associated with skills proficiency. This remains true even after controlling for
DECO literacy and numeracy
factors such as age, gender and family background. In the United States, however,
more variation in proficiency exists at each level than for similarly educated adults proficiency scales consist of
in other countries. Quality differences among education systems nationwide are five levels on a continuum.
one of the major causes of this variation. In 2016, of the 34 participating countries
Proficiencies can fall
and economies, the United States had the second largest proficiency rate gap at
each educational attainment level - 26 points higher than the average. That's between levels depending
even after accounting for additional sociodemographic characteristics. on how many tasks at each
Compared with other OECD countries, the proportion of U.S. adults who have level an individual can and
earned a high school credential or less is relatively small. However, these adults cannot perform.
have weaker basic skills than their similarly educated peers across the globe.
More adults in the United States than in other countries who earned a high
school credential or less have low skills - scoring below Level 2 on the OECD literacy and numeracy scales. But even
adults with higher levels of education can be low-skilled. A substantial proportion - 16 percent - of U.S. adults scored
at or below Level 1 in both literacy and numeracy. An additional 42 percent of all U.S. adults scored at or below Level 1 in
numeracy alone, while another 5 percent scored at or below Level 1 in literacy alone.
Of the one in five adults with low literacy, just 56 percent are employed. Adults with low literacy are less likely to be
employed than adults with higher literacy rates and are more likely to have left the workforce, costing the United States
as much as $463 billion each year in lost productivity, crime, healthcare and tax revenues. SREB states are home to
approximately 37 percent of adults nationwide. It follows then that the SREB region's portion of this loss is roughly
$171 billion annually- an amount it could potentially save every year if it improved its adult literacy levels.
Since an individual's skill proficiency is strongly related to the educational attainment of his or her parent(s), an investment
in one generation is also a boost for the next one. Of adults whose parents did not earn high school credentials,
30 percent scored at or below the lowest level on the OECD literacy assessment in 2016. Children whose parents
have low literacy proficiency have skills far less developed than their peers and, on average, will have heard
30 million fewer words by the time they reach kindergarten. For children whose parents are unable to support
their literacy development, the reading skill gap often becomes insurmountable. The results affect learning in all school
subjects.
If states don't help these adults develop middle skills now and earn credentials that lead to employability, states will
have to make an even greater investment in the future to provide for these adults when they are underemployed or
unemployed and to help their children catch up to their more advantaged peers. Many of these children will never catch
up, perpetuating the cycle. The compounding impact of low educational attainment- from parents to children - makes
investinq in today's adults a promise of gains for future generations.
8 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
Unfortunately, too many workers, students and parents are unaware of the career opportunities that
middle-skill jobs provide.
• Parents and community members need to know about the new types of middle-skill jobs that are available,
and states need to communicate the advantages these jobs will provide as technology evolves. States - and
their biggest employers - need to be open about the incomes adults who hold middle-skill positions can
expect to earn. Too many people still believe these jobs do not pay well, yet many of them do.
• States need to develop career pathway systems with stackable, industry-recognized credentials to help
people qualify for these jobs. They need to provide incentives for adults to pursue professional growth.
Earning a four-year degree is daunting for many people, but earning a series of related certificates may
seem much more achievable.
How can adults who don 't have a high school diploma catch up?
All SREB states provide adult education programs By 2017, five SREB states offered students more
for adults who did not complete high school. Federal than one high school equ ivalency exam option.
funding allocated through the American Education
and Family Literacy Act helps states boost their
residents' basic literacy and math skills through GED and TASC
Adult Basic Education programs. AEFLA funds GED oni;
also help adults improve their English language HiSETonly
proficiency and help secondary education programs *TASConly
prepare adults for high school equivalency
credentialing.
Source: SREB analysis of state documents
Adult secondary education programs, such as adult
high schools and nontraditional diploma programs,
are good options for adults who have at least some high school credits and wish to complete a regular high school
diploma. These programs are generally available to people not currently enrolled in high school who are at least 16 or
17 years old, and who either dropped out before graduation or had difficulty passing a course or a high school exit
exam. Many of these programs are run through state community and technical colleges. Adult high school programs
require that enrollees have at least some - typically 10 - high school credits. Many of these programs award regular
high school diplomas upon completion; others prepare students to take a high school equivalency exam.
In 2017, all SREB states offered one or more of three standard high school equivalency assessments: the High School
Equivalency Test, the Test Assessing Secondary Completion and the GED. Some states offered more than one of
these exams. The HiSET and TASC provide more testing formats than the GED and have lower testing fees.
Adults who do not have any high school credits or who have very low literacy levels must enroll in Adult Basic
Education programs before they can work toward a high school credential. They may enter other seco ndary
education programs if their literacy levels are at the high school level, but this linear method of acquiring basic
skills and then working toward a credential is often very discouraging for adult learners. That's where a new approach
to basic adult education, introduced nationwide through the federal Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act,
comes in.
Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019 I 9
How has WIOA improved adult education?
The 2014 reauthorization of the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act provides a clear roadmap to help states
prepare their undereducated adults for a better future. WIOA calls for states to break with older models that require
basic skills courses before employment-related instruction. And it calls for more technology-integrated basic-skills
course offerings. WIOA strengthens accountability standards and requires states to coordinate statewide and local
plans to address regional workforce needs. These new unified - or combined - state plans comprehensively address
the needs of adult learners.
Integrated Education and Training Programs
WIOA introduced requirements for states to offer Integrated Education and Training programs. These programs are
creative, research-supported models for programming and instruction. Courses are often led using a team-teaching
approach with dual instructors - one teaching basic skills and one with expertise in the program's target industry or
occupation.
Integrated programs are more efficient and more attractive for adults with the lowest levels of education. IET
programs offer them the opportunity to improve their basic literacy, math or spoken language skills while
earning a high school credential and being trained for a specific occupation, industry, or postsecondary
credential. The approach is intended to meet both individual and labor market needs much more quickly.
Research conducted using data from the Washington State
Board of Community and Technical Colleges found that just By 2016, seven SREB states had established
Integrated Education and Training policies.
30 percent of Adult Basic Education students, and 13 percent
of English language learners, were able to earn any college
credits within five years of attending traditional linear
programs. On average, adult learners spend less than
100 hours a year in adult education programs, so program
planners must make better use of instructional time in
their course designs. !ET programs are a break from
traditional sequential instruction models, which require
students to attend to non-credit basic skills first before they
Source: National Skills Coali1ion
can enroll in courses related to their career interest. The
simultaneous basic skills instruction and career training of
!ET programs enables participants to work toward completing two goals at the same time, resulting in greater
engagement for students, quicker completion times for workers and a more robust labor force for states.
State-level policies can encourage state implementation ofIET programs in several ways. In 2016, the National Skills
Coalition published a report reviewing IET state policies - specifically reporting actions the states had taken by that
time. States can designate funds for IET programs, authorize such programs in their workforce strategies, or go so far
as to require these programs. Some SREB states had !ET initiatives in place prior to the reauthorization ofWIOA,
whereas others have addressed the federal requirement for these programs in their WIOA plan but have not acted to
provide integrated opportunities for adult learners.
Integrated English Literacy and Civics Education
The Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act did not just introduce requirements for Integrated Education and
Training course offerings. It expanded requirements for English language and civics courses, including requiring
states to use a large portion of grant funds from the Adult Education and Family Literacy Act for Integrated English
Literacy and Civics Education. In 2016. English language learners made up more than 40 percent of all AEFLA
participants.
10 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
Two States Making A Difference
North Carolina's Basic Skills Plus
The North Carolina General Assembly introduced Basic Skills Plus in 2010 to help adults improve their basic skills while
earning postsecondary credit and/or industry credentials. This concurrent enrollment program became law in 2015 as
part of the North Carolina Community Colleges programs. Providers may use up to 20 percent of their adult literacy
funding for instruction and training. They are encouraged to provide non-academic support such as transportation and
daycare. BSKP students are co-enrolled in basic literacy and employability skills and occupational training courses.
Enrollees earn an Adult High School diploma (or high school equivalency diploma) while receiving training in a high-
demand industry that leads to a recognized credential or local industry certification. Eligible students may receive tuition
and/or registration fee waivers from the State Board of Community Colleges.
The Basic Skills Plus program offers courses on career pathways that align with proven local and regional workforce
needs. Approved courses include basic reading, writing, math, English, computer skills, and college-credit bearing
courses only. The program does not include postsecondary remedial courses. For this reason, adult learners must take
the National Reporting System-approved assessment and score at the Intermediate-High level (6.0 and above) in reading
or math for entrance. Certain incarcerated individuals, English language learners, and students with disabilities who are
pursuing a high school credential may also be eligible for the BSKP program.
Texas' Community Action, Inc.
Community Action, Inc. serves about 1,000 ESOUIELCE students in Austin, Texas and the surrounding area through
its Career Pathways Program. This program offers several pathways that meet the needs of the adult learning
community and the local workforce and has blossomed under WIOA. Offerings include Truck Driving, Plumbing, and
Telecommunications. Recognizing that immigrants start a large majority of new businesses nationwide- and that
owning a family business is an immigrant tradition- Community Action, Inc. began offering a career pathway in
Entrepreneurship.
The Entrepreneurship pathway includes a nine-week business basics class, the training portion, and IELCE classes.
The business basics class covers finances, budgeting, business plans, banking and marketing. IELCE classes incorporate
basic English language and digital literacy instruction. The combination of occupational and basic literacy courses
provides students the opportunity to strengthen many of the skills they need to run a business. They are given a
Chromebook in their second class, which they can keep, provided they meet the terms of an attendance contract and
complete all course requirements.
The Entrepreneurship pathway has been wildly popular and shows promise in advancing participants' skills. Though it
was designed for high-intermediate English language learners, Adult Basic Education students have requested permission
to participate. Of the 86 students who completed the business basics class between the spring of 2016 and spring 2017,
75 percent advanced one or more levels on the Texas-approved ESL oral and/or literacy assessments. The course has
been so popular that instructors are working to develop a second-level business basics class that will focus on building
websites, social media marketing, and using accounting software.
The program attributes part of its success to the involvement of business and agency partnerships. For example, during
the business planning portion of the classes, staff from the Legal Aid Services of Austin instruct students on formalized
business structures such as Sole Proprietorships and Limited Liability Companies. Staff from the personal and business
banking teams at the Randolph Brooks Federal Credit Union speak with students about banking and loan options and
managing their personal finances. Staff from the Chamber of Commerce share their experiences in starting their own
businesses. Students have the opportunity to learn from industry experts and anchor their training in the real world.
The Entrepreneurship pathway is funded completely by the IELCE portion of Texas' WIOA Title II Adult Education grant and
is overseen by the Texas Workforce Commission. For accountability, TWC looks closely at pre- and post-test measures
of student abilities and at performance targets such as the number of completers, as required by WIOA. The pathway
is operating as a WIOA-approved demonstration pilot but needs to be linked to an industry credential in the future.
It currently awards students a Certificate of Completion. Program coordinators are working to link the pathway to a
postsecondary credential or may find a partner to sponsor one.
Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019 I 11
What have states alread'
Adult Educatio,
Alabama Community College System ,
Alabama Workforce Division , Office of Adult Education
Combined 4
Arkansas Department of Career Education,
Arkansas Division of Adult Education
Combined 5
Delaware State Department of Education,
Delaware Office of Adult and Prison Education
Combined 3
Florida Department of Education,
Florida Office of Career and Adult Education
Unified
Technical College System of Georgia,
Georgia Office of Adult Education
Unified
Kentucky Council on Postsecondary Education,
Kentucky Kentucky Adult Education
Combined 2
Louisiana Community and Technical College,
Louisiana WorkReady U
Combined 5
Maryland Department of Labor,
Maryland Licensing and Regulation, Division of Combined 4
Workforce Development and Adult Learning
Mississippi Community College Board,
Mississippi Office of Adult Education
Combined 5
North Carolina Community College System,
North Carolina Division of Programs and Student Services, Unified
College and Career Readiness
Oklahoma Department of Career and
Oklahoma Technical Education, Unified
Division of Adult Basic Education
South Carolina Department of Education,
South Carolina Office of Adult Education
Unified
Tennessee Department of Labor
Tennessee and Workforce Development, Combined 5
Division of Adult Education
Texas Texas Workforce Commission Combined
Virginia Department of Education ,
Virginia Office of Adult Education and Literacy
Combined 6
West Virginia Department of Education,
West Virginia Office of Adult Education
Unified
Unified plans include each of the six core programs and combined plans include these as well as any of 11 partner programs.
•• States must establish a state workforce development board to preside over WIOA activities and oversee any local area boards that coordinate local efforts.
Sources: National Skills Coalition & State WIOA Plans, 2016; The Council of State Governments, 2017
12 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
vdone to plan for WIOA?
z in SREB States
Statewide Policies and Initiatives
........... ···-·- ···- ·--···· - .... ········-··-- ·---······· -·- -·-·------·--·--····-·-·-·-···-··-··----1----·· --~1-···----········-·-··-·--
Number of local areas with State-Adopted College- and Statewide Integrated Education IET .t. t·
1ni ia ives
workforce development boards** Career- Read.mess Stan dards I an dlirammg
. . Po1·1c1es
.
6 to 9
.. ..
Ready to Work initiative
Accelerating Opportunity
College and Career Readiness
10 and Regional Workforce
Standards for Adult Education
Grants
Delaware state-approved standards
Florida's Integrated
24 Florida Standards (ELA and Math) Career and Academic
Preparation System
Georgia has established a
College and Career Readiness
19 number of individual IET
Standards for Adult Education
programs
College and Career Readiness Accelerating Opportunity
10
Standards for Adult Education Kentucky
College and Career Readiness Lou isiana Integrated
16
Standards for Adult Education Career Pathways
Accelerating Connections
College and Career Readiness
12 to Employment &
Standards for Adult Education
Ml-BEST
4
College and Career Readiness
Standards for Adult Education ./ Ml-BEST
23
North Carolina Adult Education
Content Standards ./ Basic Skills Plus
8 Oklahoma state-approved standards
College and Career Readiness
12
Standards for Adult Education
College and Career Readiness
13
Standards for Adult Education
28
Texas Adult Education Content
Standards and Benchmarks ./ Accelerate Texas initiative
15
College and Career Readiness
Standards for Adult Education ./ PluggedlnVA initiative
College and Career Readiness
7
Standards for Adult Education
Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019 I 13
IELCE courses differ from English as a Second Language courses in that they must not only help learners achieve
competency in reading, writing, speaking, and English language comprehension, but must also lead to a high school
credential and a transition to either employment or postsecondary education and training. The U.S. Department of
Education requires that these courses help learners acquire the skills needed to be effective parents, workers and U.S.
citizens. As with !ET program participants, English language learners can simultaneously work to improve their
language skills and earn a high school or an industry credential.
How else is WIOA changing adult education?
In addition to expanding program offerings that better meet individual and workforce needs, WIOA added several
requirements paralleling SREB's previous suggestions for adult educational programs:
1) Improve performance accountability: WIOA created a common set of performance measures. These
include unsubsidized employment, receipt of secondary or recognized postsecondary credentials, and
measurable skill gains for adult education participants. It also introduced a performance system that made
all programs responsible for the same core metrics.
2) Enhance consistency between state and local programs: States are now required to submit a single,
unified or combined state plan describing common strategies used by all core programs to meet individual
and workforce needs. Unified plans include each of the six core programs, and combined plans include
these as well as any of 11 partner programs. All local plans must align with the unified or combined state
plan and address how local programs will meet regional labor market needs. States must also establish a
workforce development board to preside over WIOA activities and oversee any local boards that coordinate
local efforts.
3) Focus on worker needs and best practices: WIOA encouraged states to combine core and intensive
services into career services models and to adopt or expand best practices, including career pathways for
adult learners as well as industry and sector partnerships. WIOA also recognized the high demand for
technical skills in the U.S. labor market and added digital literacy to its definition of workplace preparation.
4) Align federal education policies: The U.S. Department of Education required WIOA, the Every Student
Succeeds Act and Perkins V legislation to use the same terminology. Using similar terms in these education
policies helps states align their adult education, K-12 and career technical and education policies to serve
students better.
Are adult education standards up-to-date?
As adult education program models adapt to better meet
individual and workforce needs, the standards governing
these programs need to be updated. In 2013, the Office of
Career, Technical, and Adult Education, formerly known
as the Office for Vocational and Adult Education, published
the College and Career Readiness Standards for Adult
Education. The standards were carefully selected from
then-existing K-12 rigorous state standards. Only the most
relevant standards were included so that adult education
instruction would align with the demands of K-12,
Source: Office of \Jocalional and Ad ult Education
postsecondary education and the workforce.
14 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
Adopting these standards benefits adult education programs by:
• developing common expectations for adult education that are consistent across states and with both K-12
and postsecondary education;
• encouraging partnerships between states and other adult education providers and facilitating the sharing
of financial and informational resources; and
• ensuring that adult education programs better prepare students to perform well on assessments, including
high school equivalency and postsecondary placement exams.
The standards are arranged in two large groupings: English language arts and literacy standards, and mathematics
standards. Each group is organized into five grade-level bundles. The ELA and literacy standards were developed
around four specific strands: reading. writing. speaking and listening. and language. These include standards that
apply to history and social studies, science, and technological studies with a heavy focus on reading. The standards
for math are broken down into skills required for using math in practice and for understanding math in different
contexts.
What's affecting enrollment in adult education programs?
Policymakers might have guessed that enrollments would Enrollment in the SREB region 's adult education
increase along with recent improvements in adult education programs decreased by more than 28 percentage
points between 2010 and 2016.
programs. But the opposite is true. Between 2010 and 2016,
program enrollments for adults in the SREB region decreased
by 28 percentage points. Higher graduation rates have
recently reduced the percentage of students who may need
GED prep courses. Yet, 15 percent of adults younger than
25 do not have a high school credential and their presence
in the workforce will be increasingly problematic as more-
educated older adults retire. So, while a smaller number
of young adults may need to enroll in these programs. a
greater proportion of the workforce may be undereducated
Note: Pen:entage:s areperr;,eritagepoint change from 20 10 to 2016.
in the future when fewer low-skill jobs will be available. Source: Office of Vocational and Adult Education
States today are facing two big issues that were not so
prevalent 10 years ago: the changing occupational landscape and decreasedJundingfor adult educational programs.
Today, machines - many with artificial intelligence - are replacing workers at an unprecedented rate, a trend that
increases the need to train adults in adult education programs. State leaders also need to find funding for these
programs and for supporting the adults who need to participate in them.
Federal funding for adult education has had a slow recovery from the recession. From 2010 to 2011. federal funding
for adult education programs dropped by over $24 million in the SREB region and has remained stagnant for most
of the years since. In 2016, it was just $790,000 more than it was in 2011 but still $23 million less than in 2010.
The federal reductions for adult education also led to a decrease in state funding. The U.S. Office of Career. Technical
and Adult Education provides states with grant funding for adult education programs based on the number of adults
over age 16 who are not enrolled in and have not completed high school. In turn. states must provide a 25 percent
match for the federal funding they receive and satisfy a "maintenance of effort" provision. requiring that they spend
at least 90 percent of what they spent in the prior year on adult education programs. Many states only contribute
what th e federal government requires, so as federal dollars drop, so do state matches, compounding the effect on
enrollments.
Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019 I 15
In 2017, Congress appropriated $582 million nationwide for adult education programs. SREB states received
approximately $227 million, or 39 percent of the funds. Between 2017 and 2019, the federal government proposed
to cut AEFLA and Integrated English Literacy and Civics Education funding by more than 21 percent - potentially
increasing the need for states to step up with additional funding for adult education. However, the most recent
release of2018 funding estimates saw increases of almost 7 percent from 2017 across the SREB region. States should
take federally proposed budget cuts into consideration as they work on their 2018-2020 state plans and hope to
see the estimated increases. They will need to make up fo r any federal funding reductions to prevent program
enrollments from dropping even further.
Differences in employer investment in adult education and employee training programs account fo r part of the
variance in adult education participation rates. According to the U.S. DOE Office of Career, Technical, and
Adult Education, 40 percent of the low-skilled, employed adults who participated in employer-funded learning
opportunities in 2016 reported that their employer paid for non-formal education - learning that is organized,
structured, and has specific learning obj ectives, but does not lead to a formal, nationally- or industry-recognized
credential. Another 12 percent reported that their employers paid for formal education, which culminates in a formal
diploma, degree or credential. Partnering with employers who are already supporting adult learning could help states
enroll more adults in education programs and ensure that these adults earn secondary, postsecondary and industry-
recognized credentials. And taking into account the type oflearning that employers typically fund could help states
design programs in which employers will be more likely to invest.
Enrollment for Adults, Ages 25 to 59 in SREB States, 2016
Adult Basic Adult Secondary English as a Integrated English Literacy
Education Education Second Language and C1v1cs Education
(ABE) (ASE) (ESL) (ELG)
ABE IET ASE IET ESL IET ELG IET
SREB states 143,096 2,305 23,810 589 156,248 384 14,879 2,101
Alabama 6,807 177 2,111 116 1,168 334 5
Arkansas 4,983 0 1,476 0 2,877 0 0 0
Delaware 1,204 1 241 4 1,032 0 20 0
Florida 27,780 0 2,631 0 70,270 0 0 0
Georgia 13,411 0 1,074 0 3,819 0 4,167 0
Kentucky 9,517 50 3,173 7 2,090 0 910 0
Louisiana 7,788 0 828 0 1,382 0 1,431 0
Maryland 6,251 3 1,130 8,972 0 2,114 0
Mississippi 3,909 102 406 23 223 0 4 0
North Carolina 17,175 430 4,525 215 14,570 103 1,922 236
Oklahoma 4,847 9 589 1 2,581 1,069 0
South Carolina 7,388 2,284 2 2,999 0 0 0
Tennessee 7,033 4 907 0 732 3 717 0
Texas 19,695 1,528 1,244 220 35,073 276 2,141 1,810
Virginia 3,952 0 763 0 8,344 0 0 0
West Virginia 1,356 0 428 0 116 0 50 50
Note: !ET stands fo r integrated education and training.
Source: U.S. O ffi ce of Career, TcchnjcaJ , an d Adull Ed ucation, 201 6
16 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
State adult education programs will become even more important as today's 30- to 40-year-old undereducated
workers face declining job prospects - either because their jobs will disappear or because they will be unprepared
to evolve in their current one. It is likely their current jobs will expire by the time they are in their mid-forties to
mid-fifties. Their chances of finding another job to sustain their livelihood, fund their retirement and contribute to
their children's postsecondary aspirations will clearly fade in the years ahead unless they develop new job skills. New
funding can help states bolster their efforts to attract adults to bold, innovative programs while there is still time.
Perkins V Funding: Career and Technical Education
To meet funding requirements for adult education programs, states must incorporate six core programs - and
can incorporate up to 11 partner programs - into their state plans. One of these programs is Perkins V. or the
Strengthening Career and Technical Education for the 21st Century Act, formerly known as the Carl D. Perkins
Career and Technical Education Act, a primary source of funding for state career and technical education programs.
In 2018, the federal government authorized almost $1.2 billion in grant funding under Perkins. Allocations for adult
education are based on state populations, and states determine how funds are split between secondary and
postsecondary programs. Using data from the Perkins Collaborative Resource Network, an SREB analysis found
that across the region, nearly 70 percent of Perkins funding was allocated to secondary programs, ranging from
51 to 85 percent across states in 2018.
While the $1.2 billion allocation seems ample, in inflation-adjusted dollars it represents a dramatic decrease in
spending power for CTE programs. Between 2004 and 2017, Perkins funding declined by over $116 million dollars.
a 28 percent decrease that, adjusted for inflation , equates to a $427 million loss in spending power.
CTE programs have been proven to help prepare adults for middle-
skill jobs by helping learners acquire the advanced, industry-specific
Arkansas CTE Concentrators:
technical skills needed to fill such positions. While more research is
• were 21 percentage points more
needed, specifically in adult education, research from Advance CTE likely to graduate from high
indicates that career and technical education programs have positive school
outcomes for secondary students. Some studies have found that CTE • were more likely to be
employed after graduation
programs significantly reduce high school dropout rates and improve
• were more likely to enroll
the likelihood that a high school graduate will either be employed or in a two-year college
pursue postsecondary education. CTE participants also tend to earn after graduation
more than their peers. Given the success of the WlOA program. further
integration of adult education with career and technical education
may be warranted. Source: Thomas B. Fordham Institute, 2016
What can states do?
Enabling adults to become engaged in education while they are working - especial ly in low-wage jobs - is difficult.
For states, though. standing by and doing nothing is no longer an option, considering the significant transformation
that is well under way.
States have limited resources available to them to improve the prospects for vulnerable working adults. Using their
resources wisely, aligning them well to achieve economies of scale, is vitally important. Planning is key. And working
together with partners is smart: learning from one another what works, sharing best practices and good ideas.
Because parents directly influence their children's development, the efforts states make today to increase parents'
educational and employment opportunities will improve prospects for tomorrow's adults, leading to a healthier
economy and workforce both now and in the future.
Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019 I 17
States can begin by bolstering enrollment rates and improving the quality of their adult education programs. Using
the opportunities that WIOA provides to build and implement a strong state plan, increasing funding allotments.
and incorporating practices that have already improved such programs across the nation are good places to start.
The following ideas are just the beginning. States will need to continue to expand their thinking in developing
creative solutions that are right for their economies and that help more adults - and their children - reach at least
a middle-skills level.
• lncentivize adult education programs that use integrated education and training models.
Integrated Education and Training models combine basic skills instruction with workforce training. The JET
model enables adults to complete programs more quickly and be better prepared to enter the workforce,
saving states both time and resources. States have the challenge of drawing adults to these programs.
Research conducted using data from the Washington State Board of Community and Technical Colleges
shows that, even after five years in traditional adult education programs, most adult learners do not earn
any college credit, let alone a postsecondary degree or credential.
• Provide support services for adults to help them be successful in adult education programs.
Programs will be most effective if they offer adequate support for adult learners. Often. adults enrolling in
these programs have limited resources, competing time constraints and varied responsibilities. By
considering these limitations, and providing services like childcare, flexible schedule options and financial
support, states can ensure that more adults are able to complete programs.
• Use best practices, materials, and implementation methods that have already proven successful in other states'
programs.
• College and Career Readiness Standards for Adult Education
Good programs depend on high quality standards to guide instruction. materials selection and teacher
professional development. Adult education standards were adapted by the Office of Career, Technical,
and Adult Education from K-12. They focus on the basic reading. writing, math and computer skills adults
need to be successful in the workforce. Using a common set of standards also lets states share
information more easily. use resources more efficiently and get better results.
• Formative and summative assessments
As states change their adult learning programs to meet WIOA requirements. it is important that they
measure student progress during courses and subject mastery upon course completion. Measuring student
progress over time helps to uncover instructional and design issues that might otherwise go unnoticed.
Evaluating students for both progress and mastery unmasks important details about the learning
obstacles that students face.
• Instructional materials already aligned with the College and Career Readiness Standards for Adult
Education
Using instructional materials already aligned with their state-adopted set of standards will ease sharing of
textbooks. online- and technology-based resources and assessment tools between states. States can save
funds by sharing course materials, which can help increase the availability of online repositories - a great
benefit for teachers.
18 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
• Provide teachers adequate training and professional development opportunities.
Provide teacher training opportunities aligned with the College and Career Readiness Standards for Adult
Education to help teachers become confident and effective. States could provide teacher training courses at
community colleges or online. Create time for teachers to work with each other. sharing experiences and
instructional methods and materials across different courses, programs, institutions and states.
• Align CTE and integrative training education course offerings with the specific workforce needs in each state, but focus
on skills, not specific tasks , as the jobs we train for today may not be the same tomorrow.
Aligning course offerings with state workforce needs will help adult education graduates find good-paying
jobs and create opportunities for local industries to partner with adult learning programs. Programs aligned
with state workforce needs are more likely to be effective as the resources and expertise needed for
occupational training are more readily available.
• Encourage partnerships between public education and training systems and private sector industries.
Partnerships between adult education programs and private sector industries benefit both parties. Adult
education programs gain access to industry resources such as training facilities and equipment. Businesses
gain access to qualified employees and may conserve resources by identifying potential job candidates
within partner training programs. And partner programs can be very attractive to adults looking to enter
the workforce quickly.
• lncentivize business partners to increase access to on-the-job training opportunities for adult learners.
Businesses that provide learning opportunities incentivize their employees to improve skills and grow in
their positions. Businesses need to be flexible with workers' schedules and allow adult learners to share time
between work and training. Businesses that help their employees learn in their jobs will produce more
highly skilled workers, increasing productivity and profitability.
• Design policies that require adult education performance measures to be both quantitative and qualitative.
Adult education programs should measure both how many adults have access to, enroll in, and successfully
complete education and training courses and the quality of their skill and knowledge gains. States need to
hold programs accountable for the college and career readiness of their adult learners just as they do their
high school graduates - and they need to get a greater number of adults to complete these programs. Adult
education programs need to work toward preparing many more low-skill adults for middle-skill positions.
To ensure the greatest impact, adult education programs must be effective and accessible.
Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019 I 19
How Can SREB Help?
SREB is committed, now more than ever, to supporting states' efforts as they seek answers to the questions currently
facing adult education programs:
• How do we get more adults to enroll and be successful in adult education programs - to both increase
their educational attainment and raise their skills?
• How can states find and maximize new resources to create solutions and implement them widely?
• How can states help foster relationships within the education community and with business and industry
leaders to ensure that low-skilled adults get the support they need to become strong contributors in the
workforce?
These and other questions will need to be answered if SREB states hope to ensure the livelihoods of their most
vulnerable, low-skilled adults and their children. SREB stands ready to support states in improving adult learning
outcomes, ensuring that more adults are prepared for current and impending technological advancements in the
workplace. SREB consultants can provide the data, policy support and historical knowledge states need to make
informed decisions as they address these issues. States need to be innovative and bold if they hope to prepare this
and future generations for the ever-changing technological landscape.
In the next 10 years, SREB will support states in serving the region's adults and children to meet developing workforce
needs. This report, our work-based learning commission, and strengthened strategic partnerships are just the beginning
SREB will produce additional, related reports and work alongside states as they seek solutions to present andfuture
questions. In the next few months, SREB will report on the potential economic impacts if states do not address the adult
educational attainment issue, and the imperative alignment ofstate WIOA, ESSA, and Perkins V plans.
20 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
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22 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
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Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019 I 23
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24 I Unprepared and Unaware - February 2019
SREB
Southern Regional Education Board
592 10th St. , N.W.
Atlanta, GA 30318-5776
(404) 875-9211
SREB.org
February 2019 (19E02)
Policy Brief I June 2019
The SREB Region's
Economic Outlook
The Potential Impact of Automation and Al
Many American workers find themselves in a continuous struggle to keep up
with advances in automation and artificial intelligence that could potentially
displace them from a growing list of occupations. Nearly every day articles
and online videos highlight new technologies. We learn about machines being
tested to deliver packages to homes autonomously. A robotic interviewer in
Sweden now questions job applicants in an attempt to eliminate human bias
from the hiring process. And researchers are working on an ocular implant for
humans to record everything their eyes see during the day.
As companies continue to incorporate new technologies, making machine
learning and robotics common in almost all workplaces, more and more
working adults need to adapt to computerized work activities. Many need
to move into new jobs raising their skill levels, or they will be out of a job
altogether. According to SREB's Unprepared and Unaware: Upskilling the
Workforce for a Decade of Uncertainty, adults with the lowest levels of skills -
typically those with a high school credential or less - are most vulnerable to
these changes.
If states and industry leaders do not act quickly
If state and business to prepare employees for these workplace
leaders do not act transformations, 18 million or more adults
will find themselves in low-paying positions
•
or out of a job and increasingly reliant on
public services. Businesses will struggle
to fill middle- and high-skilled positions.
workers and their
children could be unemployable
Children - future workers - will face
or stuck in low-wage jobs: similar struggles and likely be unprepared
an endless cycle
of poverty for future positions, worsening these problems
for states and businesses.
This brief was prepared by Meagan Crowe, policy analyst, under th e leadership of Jeff Gagn e, director of
policy analysis, and Joan Lord, vice president of education data, policy research and programs.
Low-skill positions in the workforce, especially those requiring repetitive manual labor, are being eliminated
by automation. But many are also being transformed to middle-skill positions - those available to adults with
more than a high school diploma but less than a 4-year degree. As these jobs change, the employees holding
them will need to change, too, either by increasing their skill level or by moving to a new job altogether. This
leaves many in education and industry asking not "Will there be enough jobs?" but "Will there be enough skilled
workers to fill the jobs that are available?" And without significant investment from states and businesses, there
will be even fewer skilled workers in the future.
Low-skilled workers are costly for states and businesses. They earn less
Many in education and
and thus pay less in taxes. They are more likely to live in poverty and to
industry are asking not
depend on costly social welfare programs. Businesses have trouble filling
important jobs and experience decreased productivity while they invest "Will there be enough jobs?"
more to train employees. but "Will there be enough
skilled ll'orkers to fill the jobs
States will need to help low-skilled adults earn diplomas and that are available?"
postsecondary degrees and certificates if they hope to supply the
expanding middle-skill job market. And states will need to do so at a rate
that keeps up with technological advancements.
The SREB region is additionally challenged to catch up with other states in the nation - states that already
have more workers with higher skills and more businesses that rely on those skills to flourish . The region is
already behind. States will need to make a large and concerted effort if they are to prepare the workforce for the
uncertain future that technology is already delivering. SREB states' efforts will need to be greater than the rest
of the country if they hope to become competitive. And those efforts need to begin now. What could th e future
hold if they do not step up to these challenges? Let's take a look.
Automation Potential
In 2017, researchers at the McKinsey Global Institute analyzed more than 2,000 work activities across
800 occupations to determine what portion could be automated using currently demonstrated technologies.
This technical automation potential will manifest differently across occupations and geographic areas over
time, depending on five key factors: technical feasibility, the cost of automating, labor market dynamics,
economic benefits, and regulatory and social acceptance. McKinsey researchers found that at least 30 percent
of work activities in about 60 percent of occupations have the potential to be automated. Five percent of
occupations were completely automatable.
Jobs are much more likely to change than be eliminated. Each occupation consists
of various work activities - some that can be automated with currently
Just 5% demonstrated technologies, and some that cannot. So, potential automation
of jobs are completely is reported as percentages of work activity, not numbers of jobs. Almost
automatable, but all employees will be increasingly likely to work alongside machines or to
see their daily tasks change in some capacity as technology infiltrates the
44°/o work place. Most workers - at all skill levels - will be affected by these
of all work activities technological changes, but those with the lowest skill levels are more likely to
have automation be negatively affected. McKinsey estimates that across the United States, total
potential automation potential of all work activities is 46 percent. In the SREB region,
44 percent of all work activities are potentially automatable.
2 The SREB Region's Economic Outlook I June 2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics sorts more than Most
800 occupations into 22 industry categories, each of the 50 million
of which McKinsey assigns a different automation workers
potential. Nationwide, automation potential of work in the region will be
activities varies across these categories from just affected
15.7 percent for business and financial operations to by automation
86.3 percent for production occupations. in the coming
decades
SREB analyzed the automation potential in the
top 5 industry categories, defined as those industries
that employ the most people in each state. Across the
region , am ong the 22 categories identified by BLS,
just eight account for the top 5 in every state. These
Automation potential
eight are listed as top industry categories in the table
1n the top 5 industry categories
below. It is notable that McKinsey found that four
in the SREB region
of the top five in the SREB region also rank highest
for potential for automation, with more than
62 percent of work activities in each category
potentially automatable.
Across the SREB region, 52 percent of all workers - Production Transportation Sales
nearly 26 million people - are in a top 5 industry
category, ranging from under 47 to over 54 percent
across states.
Food Preparation Office &
& Serving Administrative
Top Industry Categories by Number of Employees in Each SREB State
Number of SREB states Number of SREB workers
Industry Category having this category as in a state's top
one of the top 5 5 category
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 16 4,873,020
Sales and Related Occupations 16 5,527,360
Office and Administrative Support Occupations 16 7,878,070
Transportation and Material Moving 14 3,359,020
Production Occupations 11 2,062 ,390
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 4 679,570
Education, Training and Library Occupations 2 979,220
Business and Financial Operations 1 261,530
Source: U.S. Bureau of labor Statistics, 2018
The SREB Region 's Economic Outlook I June 2019 3
Examples of jobs in each of these industry categories:
1. Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations
Chefs.first-line supervisors, line cooks, bartenders, waiters and waitresses, dishwashers, and hosts and hostesses
2. Sales and Related Occupations
Retail salespersons, advertising sales agents, insurance sales agents, travel agents, and telemarketers
3. Office and Administrative Support Occupations
Bill and account collectors, payroll and timekeeping clerks, court clerks,.financial clerks, and hotel desk clerks
4. Transportation and Material Moving
Taxi drivers, ambulance drivers, ship engineers, parking lot attendants, industrial truck and tractor operators,
and refuse and recyclable material collectors
5. Production Occupations
Engine and machine assemblers.food and tobacco batch makers, welders, dry-cleaning workers, and water
treatment plant and system operators
6. Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations
Pharmacy technicians, physician assistants, veterinarians, registered nurses, dental hygienists, and surgical
technologists
7. Education, Training and Library Occupations
Postsecondary teachers, special education teachers, adult basic and secondary education and literacy teachers
and instructors, and librarians
8. Business and Financial Operations
Insurance appraisers,Jundraisers, training and development specialists, budget analysts, credit counselors, tax
preparers, and meeting, convention, and event planners
As Unprepared and Unaware points out, the workers most vulnerable to technological advancements are those
who have a high school credential or less. As businesses automate various activities, fewer low-skilled workers
will be necessary in the workplace. But industries that require more
high-skilled workers already struggle to fill positions, and this trend is
likely to increase over time.
Using national educational attainment averages and state
occupational data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, SREB
estimated the number of workers with high school credentials
or less in 2016 in each occupational category in each state.
Of the 50.4 million people employed in the
SREB region, 18.4 million - 37 percent - had a
high school credential or less. These adults are
the region's vulnerable workers - those most
likely to struggle to keep up with changes in the Business & industry
workforce and to need more education in the w ill need increasing
years ahead. And of all the vulnerable workers in numbers of workers
the region, 59 percent were employed in a top with midd le & high
5 industry category. skil ls
4 The SREB Region 's Economic Outlook [ June 2019
Student Readiness
The National Assessment of Education Progress and other similar assessment measures have shown that
children's educational attainment is correlated with that of their parents. NAEP asks students in the eighth and
twelfth grades to report their parents' educational attainment as they take the assessments; their results are
reported by the percentage of students who score at each proficiency level and by parental education levels:
"did not finish high school; "graduated high school," "some education after high school;' "graduated college"
and "unknown."
Throughout the SREB region in both reading and math, a smaller percentage of students who reported lower
levels of parent educational attainment performed at the Basic and Proficient levels than did students who
reported higher levels of parent educational attainment.
8th Grade NAEP Performance in the SREB Region, 2017
Percentage of students by parental education level
Reading Math
at or above at or above
Parental education level below Basic below Basic
Proficient Proficient
Did not finish high school 39 19 49 13
Graduated high school 36 21 48 15
Some education after high school 22 33 32 26
Graduated college 20 41 26 39
All students 27 31 34 29
Source: National Center fo r Education Statistics, 2017
The disappointing news is that from 2013 to 2017 the percentage of eighth grade students in the SREB region
scoring at or above the Basic level in reading and math fell by 3 and 5 percentage points respectively. The
percentage of students performing at or above the Proficient level on NAEP in reading and math fell as well -
by 1 and 2 percentage points.Just 31 percent of eighth grade students scored at or above the Proficient level in
reading in the SREB median state in 2017, while fewer - 28 percent - scored at this level in math that same
year. These results indicate that too few SREB states have sufficiently raised reading and math achievement for
most middle graders to ensure that overall they are ready for the rigors of high school.
SREB studied National Center for Education Statistics enrollment data to analyze student advancement
trends - based on the percentage of students who move from middle school into high school through
graduation and on to college completion. This student progression has remained relatively consistent in recent
years. Applying these trends, approximately one in three eighth graders enrolled in 2017 will complete college
within six years of their class's high school graduation date. The high school graduates are more likely to be
those who scored at or above the Proficient level on NAEP. One in four will likely not complete any education
beyond high school.
The SREB Region's Economic Outlook I June 2019 5
Educational Attainment
Across the SREB region, 41 percent of adults ages Are students prepared?
18 to 64 had no education beyond high school in Parents today: 25 to 44 year-olds
2017. If student achievement trends continue, no
more than one in four currently enrolled students
3 7 °/o had a high school credential or less in 2017
will be educated beyond high school, and their Of 8th graders whose parents had no education after high school
children will likely face the same grim scenario
as their parents - especially as automation ll!J!JI 36 °/o were below Basic on NAEP reading and
continues to force low-skilled workers out of
jobs. Many, like their parents and grandparents ;§ 48 °/o were below Basic on NAEP math
before them, will earn incomes below the poverty These percentages were just
line and be reliant on state-funded social services. c:::J
22°/o ~ 32°/o §§§
If state policymakers and business leaders don't act
for students whose parents had
quickly to raise the educational attainment levels of some education beyond high school
both parents and students in the region, the region is
going to fall further behind the rest of the nation. Currently,
low unemployment rates mean states have a smaller pool from
which to hire workers, which masks - particularly in the South - the low-skill level of many workers and
the need to retrain and educate them now. Many areas in the SREB region are still able to employ low-skilled
workers, but in the future many of the jobs available to adults with lower educational attainment will go away.
Today's low-skilled employees will need additional training and education to keep up with future workforce
changes. Unprepared and Unaware identifies these low-skilled adults as those most vulnerable in a recession
or during automation-fueled workplace transitions. So, while many Southern workers may be employable now,
they may not be so lucky in the future.
Considering the higher percentage oflow-skilled workers in the South compared with elsewhere in the
nation, SREB states already are less attractive than other states to employers looking to open businesses that
traditionally require workers with higher levels of education. The SREB region is now more likely to attract
businesses that do not need high-skilled workers. As these businesses automate work activities, they may lay off
employees and increase the skill demands for new, higher-paying positions. They will likely look elsewhere for
higher-skilled labor if it is not available.
To remain competitive with other states across the region and to ensure the livelihood offuture generations,
SREB states need to make a greater effort to increase the educational attainment of all residents and to attract
businesses that demand higher skill levels. Not doing so will mean a further depressed economy - and worse
prospects for all who live here.
This multigenerational cycle, combined w ith rising workforce skill demands, SREB states need to make
means more workers of all educational attainment levels will be :
a greater effort lo increase
the educational attainment
• • •
of all residents and to attract
. . businesses that demand
unemployed or earnin g incomes below reliant on
higher skill levels.
underemployed the poverty level state servi ces
6 The SREB Region's Economic Outlook I June 2019
References
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for a Stronger Southern Economy. Federal Reserve Bank. Retrieved from https://www.frbatlanta.org/ -/ media/
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Crowe, M. (February 2019). Unprepared and Unaware: Upskilling the Workforce for a Decade of Uncertainty.
Southern Regional Education Board. Retrieved from https:/ / www.sreb.org/ publication/ unprepared-and-unaware.
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Retrieved from https: //www.sreb.org/ StateProgress.
Manyika,J., Chui, M., Miremadi, M., Bughin,J., George, K., Willmott, P. & Dewhurst, M. (January 2017).
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com Iprolile I mcki nsey.analyti cs#!I vi zh om e/ Aul um al ion an J US jo bs/ USAuto mati o nlanJscap e.
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attainment.htm.
U.S. Census Bureau. (2017). Sex by Age and Educational Attainmentfor the Population 18 Years and Over.
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The SREB Region 's Economic Outlook I June 2019 7
SREB
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Atlanta , GA 30318-5776
(404) 875-9211
SREB.org
June 2019 (19E05)
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