Court filing
Declaration of Tomas Lopez, Democracy NC (Exhibit 12 to complaint) — Moore v. Circosta (M.D.N.C. No. 5:20-cv-00507)
Filed September 26, 2020 in Moore v. Circosta; one of 20 filings from this case.
Record facts
| Court | UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT |
|---|---|
| Filed | 2020-09-26 |
UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT · No. 1:20-cv-00911-WO-JLW · Doc. 1-13 · 2020-09-26 · Docket on CourtListener
Full text
EXHIBIT 12
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IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
FOR THE MIDDLE DISTRICT OF NORTH CAROLINA
DEMOCRACY NORTH CAROLINA, THE
LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS OF NORTH
CAROLINA, DONNA PERMAR, JOHN P.
CLARK, MARGARET B. CATES, LELIA
BENTLEY, REGINA WHITNEY EDWARDS,
ROBERT K. PRIDDY II, WALTER
HUTCHINS, AND SUSAN SCHAFFER,
Plaintiffs,
vs.
THE NORTH CAROLINA STATE BOARD OF
ELECTIONS; DAMON CIRCOSTA, in his
official capacity as CHAIR OF THE
STATE BOARD OF ELECTIONS; STELLA
ANDERSON, in her official capacity
as SECRETARY OF THE STATE BOARD OF
ELECTIONS; KEN RAYMOND, in his
official capacity as MEMBER OF THE
STATE BOARD OF ELECTIONS; JEFF
CARMON III, in his official
capacity as MEMBER OF THE STATE
BOARD OF ELECTIONS; DAVID C. BLACK,
in his official capacity as MEMBER
OF THE STATE BOARD OF ELECTIONS;
KAREN BRINSON BELL, in her official
capacity as EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF
THE STATE BOARD OF ELECTIONS; THE
NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION; J. ERIC BOYETTE, in
his official capacity as
TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY; THE NORTH
CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND
HUMAN SERVICES; MANDY COHEN, in her
official capacity as SECRETARY OF
HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES,
Defendants,
Civil Action
No. 20-cv-457
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PHILIP E. BERGER, in his official
capacity as PRESIDENT PRO TEMPORE
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA SENATE;
TIMOTHY K. MOORE, in his official
capacity as SPEAKER OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,
Defendant-Intervenors.
SECOND DECLARATION OF TOMAS LOPEZ
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I, Tomas Lopez, hereby declare as follows:
1. I am submitting this second sworn declaration in
response to arguments made in declarations and briefs
submitted by Defendants and Intervenors in this case.
2. First,
the
allegation
has
been
made
that
my
organization lacks standing to bring these claims.
a. In paragraph 2-3 of my first declaration dated
June 4, 2020, the goals of Democracy North
Carolina as I described them represent our core
mission.
b. The diversion of resources that we have suffered
because of election laws that do not sufficiently
protect voter access during a global pandemic
frustrates our ability to execute and achieve our
core goals. For example, extending the voter
registration deadline would allow our voter
hotline to devote the fullest resources to helping
voters
access
the
franchise,
rather
than
diverting
resources
to
troubleshooting
registration issues for voters who have missed
the deadline and would normally register and vote
in-person
during
one-stop
voting,
but
are
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hesitant to do so because of the pandemic. That
is, we could help voters navigate other, non-
pandemic-related issues. Likewise, the lack of
an online voter registration option diverts our
resources from engaging a larger number of voters
in the political process to guiding voters through
other voter registration options.
i. Similarly, using the limited space in our
printed voter guides will divert resources
from our efforts to help engage voters more
effectively. But for the witness requirement,
we would be able to use our limited resources
to educate a greater number of voters on a
greater number of topics.
ii. The lack of a mandated uniform cure mechanism
for absentee-by-mail voters who make a
mistake will frustrate our core mission to
encourage
voter
participation
because,
without this safety net in place, any efforts
we spend encouraging voters to use absentee-
by-mail voting could result in voters being
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inadvertently disenfranchised if they make a
mistake.
iii. The pandemic has created the potential for
poll worker shortages. The home county poll
worker requirement created by House Bill
1169, which eased some of the requirements
to serve as a poll worker, is nonetheless
diverting Democracy North Carolina resources
into never-before-needed recruitment efforts
to ensure that opportunities for in-person
voting remain open to North Carolina voters.
The legislature has failed to change the
election rules sufficiently enough to address
this new reality. Absent this too-onerous
limitation on poll worker eligibility, we
would not need to fund or staff this
initiative to such a great extent and would
be able to focus instead on our core purpose
of
engaging
underrepresented
North
Carolinians
and
encouraging
their
participation.
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iv. Without easy access to proposed and actual
precinct consolidations, Democracy North
Carolina will have to divert resources to
time-intensive, county-by-county research to
provide accurate, up-to-date information to
voters. If we did not have to gather this
information manually, which we would not have
had to do before this year, we could spend
those
human
resources
in
other
ways,
including
mobilizing
historically
underrepresented voters.
c. Moreover, Democracy North Carolina occupies a
close and trusted relationship with a large number
of
voters
in
this
state—voters
whose
constitutional rights we seek to vindicate, in
addition to our own. I believe that I made this
point in my first declaration, but to further
buttress that claim:
i. Democracy
North
Carolina
hosts
and
principally staffs a statewide election
protection hotline. We also facilitate an
election protection coalition, comprised of
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22 active civic engagement groups across the
state. Each of these groups promotes the
election protection hotline that we staff,
and advertises it as a way to get trusted,
reliable, non-partisan information about
participating in any election. We answer
calls to that hotline even during non-
election times, and are already receiving a
significant number of calls from voters who
do not know how to vote via absentee-by-mail,
or who lack the technology to print off an
absentee request form and want us to mail
them the form. We have never before received
this volume of calls to the
election
protection hotline during the summer before
an election. The voters who are calling us
now trust us to guide them through the
process, and we will do so.
ii. Our history of answering voter questions via
the election protection hotline is a strong
indication of the trusted relationship we
have with North Carolina voters. In the 2016
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election (primary and general), we answered
over
4,600
calls
from
voters
seeking
information on how to vote or reporting
issues with voting and seeking our assistance
in addressing those problems. In 2018, we
received nearly 2,300 such calls in the
primary and general elections. In the March
2020 primary, we received nearly 900 calls.
iii. Likewise, as discussed in paragraph 13 of my
first declaration, we recruit and deploy
hundreds of volunteers to staff in-person
voting sites, and those election protection
volunteers interact with voters to document
and address voting issues. Our volunteers
document these voting issues via incident
report forms. Voters have trusted our
volunteers
to
report
and
document
415
incidents in 2016, 512 incidents in 2018, and
169 incidents in the 2020 primary election.
iv. In the 2016 election, these volunteers
covered 300 precincts in 64 counties on
Election Day and 63 locations in 21 counties
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during early voting. In 2018 general
election,
those
volunteers
covered
279
precincts in 55 counties. And in the March
2020 primary, those volunteers covered 131
locations in 35 counties on Election Day and
99 locations in 36 counties during early
voting.
d. Finally, the restrictions challenged here that
limit my organization’s ability to assist voters
with their absentee request forms and submission
of their absentee ballots infringes our speech
and associational interests. Helping voters cast
their ballots is not only central to our core
mission but associating with voters in this way
also allows us to communicate our values. Those
values include a participatory and inclusive
democracy where hurdles do not impede political
participation,
particularly
by
historically
disenfranchised and underserved communities and
voters.
3. Second, while we understand that Director Bell has
submitted a declaration alleging her intent to provide
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instruction to North Carolina’s 100 counties about a
uniform cure process for absentee-by-mail ballots, we
have not yet seen such guidance, and we closely monitor
such directives issued to the county. No such guidance
was issued prior to the June 23rd Republican primary
run-off in Congressional District 11, and none has
been issued during my tenure as Executive Director of
this organization. In the March 2020 primary election,
we observed the consequences of the lack of a uniform
cure process.
a. As described in my first declaration, Democracy
North Carolina, with its partners, conducts post-
election canvass monitoring post-election and
performs in house data analysis of publicly-
available data from the State Board of Elections.
Based on our examination of May 2020 State Board
of Elections data, with 92 of North Carolina’s
100 counties reporting, we observed that 75% of
absentee ballots were returned. Of these, 86% were
accepted and 14% rejected— this includes figures
for people who requested multiple ballots (so it
captures total ballots rejected, not total voters
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whose ballots were rejected). Based on our
volunteers’ attendance at 12 different county
canvasses following the 2020 primary, and from
canvass monitoring in prior years, we know that a
noteworthy number of these absentee ballots were
rejected on the basis of a voters’ mistake, with
no indication that the counties followed any
uniform process (if indeed they employed any
process at all) to allow those voters to cure
their mistakes and have their absentee ballot to
be counted. The overall primary data also
indicates this— 35 percent of the ballots that
did not count were missing signatures from voters
themselves. Even accounting for voters who
eventually cast a counted ballot, this number is
troublingly high, and could result in tens of
thousands of voters in a general election (with
the predicted increase in absentee-by-mail voting
usage) having their ballots rejected.
4. Finally, as mentioned in paragraphs 6, 8, and 28 in my
first declaration, Democracy North Carolina and its
volunteers engage in extensive early voting advocacy,
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seeking additional sites, days and hours for early
voting. We have monitors tracking over 60 of North
Carolina’s county boards of election as they consider
this year’s early voting plans. While we were
heartened to see Director Bell’s numbered memo urging
counties to increase the number of early voting sites
in light of the social distancing and cleaning
procedures required to conduct safe elections during
a global pandemic, we have not seen any evidence that
a significant number of counties will follow this
suggestion.
a. While few counties have officially adopted their
early voting plans yet, and such plans are not
required to be passed by county boards until the
end of July, many have met on the topic already
and are considering plans. To my knowledge and
based on our monitoring, there are at most a
handful at most of counties even considering
expansion of the number of sites.
b. Principal among the reason our monitors have
observed as a justification for reducing or not
expanding the number of early voting sites, per
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Director Bell’s suggestion on June 24, 2020, is
that many counties are facing critical revenue
shortfalls and have not, to date, committed to
fully funding their county board of elections’
requested budget for this general election.
Instead, the overwhelming majority of counties
whose early voting plans we are tracking have
county commissions that have proposed or adopted
budgets with steep cuts to elections operations.
Even the few counties that have not proposed such
cuts have not sought to add early voting sites,
as Director Bells’ numbered memo recommended. For
example, the Wake County Board of Elections,
despite receiving their full budget request for
this year, chose not to expand the number of early
voting sites offered this year when compared to
2016 (20 sites in both elections). More common
are reports from our monitors that county
commissions are telling the county boards of
election that they need to cut their budgets. For
example, the Alamance County Board of County
Commissioners initially proposed a 54% cut to the
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requested elections budget, which would require
the county to cut in half the number of early
voting sites offered. Similarly, the county
manager in Lenoir County has informed the Board
of Elections that the county may only provide
funding for four sites, instead of the six sites
offered in 2016.
c. This pattern is consistent with what we monitored
and wrote about following the 2018 election. In
that election, we documented in a publicly
available report the decrease in the number of
sites offered statewide due to the uniform hours
requirement. This report also notes examples of
officials
who
opposed
the
uniform
hours
requirement on the grounds that it would increase
the cost of running early voting programs, and
also of officials who reported that they could
not afford to keep every site open every hour,
and
so
to
comply
with
the
uniform
hours
requirement, they had to reduce the number of
sites. That report is attached as Exhibit A to
this declaration.
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I declare under penalty of perjury under the laws of the
United States of America that the foregoing Declaration is
true and correct to the best of my knowledge.
Executed on the 2nd day of July, 2020.
____________________
Tomas Lopez
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EXHIBIT A
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Greater Costs, Fewer Options:
The Impact of the Early Voting Uniform
Hours Requirement in the 2018 Election
By Sunny Frothingham, Senior Researcher
NOTE: Thanks to ACLU-NC’s Emily Seawell and Rachel Geissler, and to Blueprint NC’s Dan DeRosa for their contributions to this
research.
Over the last decade, North Carolina has become infamous for some of the nation’s
most harmful voter suppression tactics — from racially-gerrymandered voting districts, to strict
photo voter ID laws, to attacks on election safety nets, and, most recently, vote theft in North
Carolina's Ninth Congressional District. These attacks have also extended to Early Voting, the
17-day period before Election Day when the majority of North Carolina voters cast their ballots.
1
2
A 2013 law dubbed the “Monster Voter Suppression Law” not only installed a strict photo
ID requirement to vote, but also eliminated crucial reforms which expanded ballot access,
including pre-registration for 16- and 17-year olds, out-of-precinct voting and same day
registration, and shortened the Early Voting period by a week. Since 2016, when that law was
overturned by the Fourth Circuit for “discriminatory intent” which “target[ed] African American
voters with almost surgical precision,” the General Assembly has revisited, and in some cases
3
revived, portions of the law, presumably in hopes of withstanding legal challenges. These efforts
included placing a photo ID constitutional amendment on the ballot in November 2018 and
passing Senate Bill 325 (S325), which had the impact of limiting Early Voting options in many
parts of the state.
1 Under current law, the Early Voting period is 17 days - though it was truncated to only 10 days during
the 2014 General Election and expanded to 18 days for the 2018 General Election.
2 Over 60% of ballots cast in the 2016 General Election were cast at Early Voting sites. Analysis by
Democracy North Carolina, based on data available from the State Board of Elections as of April 2019.
Data retrieved from https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=ENRS/.
3 N.C. St. Conf. of the NAACP v. McCrory, 831 F.3d 204, 219 (4th Cit. 2016). Retrieved from
http://www.ca4.uscourts.gov/opinions/published/161468.p.pdf.
1
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As explored below, S325 drained local resources and led counties across the state to
reduce Early Voting sites and weekend voting options. In addition to S325’s onerous
requirements on counties, the law also explicitly eliminated the last Saturday of Early Voting for
all elections after 2018. Topline findings of the analysis include:
●
After S325, 43 of North Carolina’s 100 counties eliminated at least one Early Voting site,
almost half reduced the number of weekend days, and about two-thirds reduced the
number of weekend hours, compared to 2014.
●
While 2018 was a high turnout election statewide compared to 2014, site changes
chipped away at county-level performance, especially in rural counties where the
distance between voters and Early Voting sites increased the most.
●
The last Saturday was the only weekend option in 56 of North Carolina’s 100 counties in
2018 — meaning that without it, there may be no weekend voting in more than half of
North Carolina counties in future elections.
●
The loss of the final Saturday will limit ballot access for voters across the state – more
than two times the number of voters cast ballots, per hour, on the last Saturday
compared to weekdays in 2018. The last Saturday garnered more than four times the
18- to 25-year old voters per hour than the weekday average.
●
The elimination of the last Saturday will disproportionately harm young voters, Black
voters, Latinx voters, and voters in certain rural counties.
Democracy North Carolina urges lawmakers to act now to ensure that all voters have a fair
chance to cast their ballots in 2020. Lawmakers should:
●
Give county boards of elections (BOEs) back the maximum flexibility needed to make
the best decisions for their county’s resources and voters, as is available in current
proposals like H893.
●
If H893 is unable to garner the bipartisan support needed to pass, then lawmakers
should eliminate the 7 a.m. - 7 p.m. weekday requirement, which requires county BOEs
to operate during “non-usable” hours and limits the capacity of local Boards to operate
multiple sites and provide weekend hours.
●
At a minimum, lawmakers should restore the mandatory last Saturday for all future
elections, including 2020.
Part One: Background on S325
In the summer of 2018, the General Assembly hastily enacted Senate Bill 325
(S325), the Uniform & Expanded Early Voting Act, which drastically reduced the
discretion county BOEs have over designing Early Voting plans that work for their
communities. North Carolina law requires counties to make Early Voting available at a
4
4 The Uniform & Expanded Early Voting Act, Session Law 2018-112, Senate Bill 325. Available at
https://www.ncleg.gov/BillLookup/2017/S325. S325 as originally filed in the 2017-2018 legislative session
had nothing to do with elections, but it emerged as the Uniform & Expanded Early Voting Act as a
proposed committee substitute on June 14, 2018, and was ratified and sent to Governor Cooper just one
day later. He vetoed the bill on June 25; the veto was overridden by the NCGA on June 27.
2
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minimum of one location (at the county Board of Elections office) and permits counties to
establish additional sites throughout the county (referred to as satellite sites). In past cycles,
counties were able to use their discretion about how best to allocate hours throughout the Early
Voting window based on voter usage patterns — for instance, by staying open later on one
5
weekday evening per week, opening mid-morning, or opening more satellite sites for the last
two weeks of the Early Voting period. But S325 required all satellite sites to be open from 7 a.m.
to 7 p.m. every weekday and in operation for the entire Early Voting period. The bill originally
proposed eliminating the extremely popular final Saturday in 2018 by moving the Early Voting
period up a day, to start on a Wednesday instead of a Thursday and end on a Friday, instead of
Saturday. Lawmakers added the last Saturday back for the 2018 election only after advocates
spoke out in opposition. As the law currently stands, the final Saturday of Early Voting is
eliminated for all future elections, including 2020, despite its popularity among North Carolina
6
voters and disproportionate use by Black and Latinx voters.
7
S325 Undermined Local Control Over Early Voting
S325 dramatically increased the cost to counties of having multiple Early Voting
locations and made it harder to operate weekend options (other than the required last
Saturday in 2018). During the debate on the bill and following its passage, county BOE
members and staff expressed frustration about the new, top-down state mandate and the loss of
flexibility in designing their county’s Early Voting schedules. As Viola Williams, Hyde County
Director Of Elections put it, “I really wish, before the bill had even been pushed through, that
they would have gotten the opinions of the people who are directly involved. The way things
were done before, where the counties made the plans, was a better way to do it. Each county is
going to make plans for what benefits their county the most, whereas when the state steps in,
they try to benefit all counties. All counties are not the same.”
8
Before S325, county boards could flexibly allocate hours across sites and
prioritize staffing high-volume voting times. According to Adam Ragan, Director of Elections
in Gaston County, in a media interview ahead of the 2018 election: “In elections administration,
we have what we consider ‘non-usable hours,’ that's why we've never opened sites that early.”9
5 Prior to 2013, county Boards of Elections had maximum flexibility in deciding Early Voting schedules --
no uniformity was required and counties could choose to operate until 5 p.m. on the last Saturday. In
2013, as part of Session Law 2013-381, H589, a sweeping elections omnibus dubbed the “Monster Voter
Suppression Law” by voting rights advocates, county Boards were required to offer uniform hours at all
satellite sites and voting was required to end by 1 p.m. on the last Saturday. This less onerous uniformity
requirement was in effect for the 2014 and 2016 election cycles, as well as the 2018 Primary.
6 The Uniform & Expanded Early Voting Act, Session Law 2018-112, Senate Bill 325. Available at
https://www.ncleg.gov/BillLookup/2017/S325; Restore Last Saturday Early One-Stop, Session Law
2018-129, House Bill 335. Available at https://www.ncleg.gov/BillLookup/2017/H335.
7 Analysis by Democracy North Carolina, based on data available from the State Board of Elections as of
April 2019. Data retrieved from https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=ENRS/.
8 Weber, J. (2018, July 18). New state law will mean fewer places to vote early in some counties. The
News & Observer. Retrieved from
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article214589500.html
9 Paterson, B. (2018, September 24). Bipartisan Furor as North Carolina Election Law Shrinks Early
Voting Locations by Almost 20 Percent. Propublica. Retrieved from
3
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In addition to the requirement that counties operate Early Voting during these “non-usable”
hours, the new mandate made it impossible for some counties to keep popular satellite sites
open. “I would have loved to have had more Early Voting locations," Ragan said. "It came down
to having more locations, helping more voters versus our fiduciary responsibilities to the county.
Tony McQueen, the Deputy Director of Elections in Pitt County, echoed this point: “To run
10
seven sites, for all of that time, would increase our budget by two-thirds... We've just been
buffaloed, really.”
11
At the county level, frustration with the law was bipartisan. Both Democratic and
Republican members of the Bladen County Board of Elections lamented the impact of S325.
Bladen could only afford one Early Voting site in 2018, compared to the four sites it operated in
the 2012, 2014, and 2016 cycles. As Bobby Ledlum, the Republican County Board chair, shared
with ProPublica at the time, “We’re a small county and the law has affected us pretty badly.” Al
Daniels, a Democratic member, saw the law as “part of a larger voter suppression effort” and
“anti-voter, period.” Steve Stone, Chair of the Robeson County Board of Elections, said before
12
the election, “I’m a full-fledged Republican and a Republican supporter, and I’m just
disappointed in the General Assembly for not reaching out to election officials in the state and
asking, ‘What do you think would work well for this early voting law?’”
13
Part Two: Effects of Eliminating Sites and Hours
The Law Led to the Elimination of Early Voting Sites and Hours
The uniform hours mandate imposed by S325 was a significant departure from the way
county Boards of Elections had managed Early Voting schedules in the past. Roughly half of
North Carolina’s counties used flexible scheduling during Early Voting in midterm cycles. In the
14
2018 Primary, 46 counties chose to offer varied hours or days at satellite sites (sites other than
the required Board of Elections site) during Early Voting to make voting more cost-efficient
15
https://www.propublica.org/article/bipartisan-furor-as-north-carolina-election-law-shrinks-early-voting-locat
ions-by-almost-20-percent.
10 Olgin, A. Early Voting Changes In North Carolina Spark Bipartisan Controversy. NPR. Retrieved from
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/17/657928248/early-voting-changes-in-north-carolina-spark-bipartisan-contr
oversy.
11 See supra note 8.
12 Paterson, B. (2018, September 24). Bipartisan Furor as North Carolina Election Law Shrinks Early
Voting Locations by Almost 20 Percent. Propublica. Retrieved from
https://www.propublica.org/article/bipartisan-furor-as-north-carolina-election-law-shrinks-early-voting-locat
ions-by-almost-20-percent. Bladen County was the center of an vote tampering scheme which lead the
State Board of Elections to call for a new election in Congressional District 9. The scheme involved
mail-in absentee ballots and, among other things, highlights the need to ensure that every voter have the
opportunity to cast an in-person ballot. In addition, the State Board of Elections investigation found that
Bladen County poll workers improperly counted votes early, as a result of faulty training.
13 Id.
14 “Flexible scheduling” is defined here as opening satellite sites for only part of the Early Voting period,
when demand for them is highest.
15 In many counties the main site is at the County Board of Elections, but counties can also designate an
“in lieu of” site as the main site, which is typically near the County Board of Elections office.
4
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based on when and where demand was highest. In 2014, the previous midterm election, 55
counties took advantage of the flexibility provided by the pre-S325 law.
16
After S325, 43 counties reduced the number of Early Voting sites offered in 2018
compared to 2014, 47 counties reduced the number of weekend days offered (despite the fact
that the 2018 Early Voting period included an additional weekend, since 2014’s Early Voting
period was cut to 10 days), and 65 counties reduced the number of weekend hours.
17
Figure 1: County by County Site and Weekend Day Reductions in 2018
18
16 Analysis of historical Early Voting plans by Democracy North Carolina and ACLU-NC. Plans on file with
Democracy NC.
17 Analysis of historical early voting plans by Democracy North Carolina and ACLU-NC. Plans on file with
Democracy NC. Site Reductions: Alamance, Ashe, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Buncombe, Caldwell,
Carteret, Caswell, Columbus, Craven, Cumberland, Dare, Davie, Gaston, Gates, Guilford, Halifax,
Harnett, Henderson, Iredell, Johnston, Lincoln, Madison, Mcdowell, Mecklenburg, Nash, Northampton,
Onslow, Person, Pitt, Polk, Richmond, Rowan, Rutherford, Sampson, Stanly, Surry, Transylvania, Vance,
Wayne, Wilkes, Wilson. Weekend Day Reductions: Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Beaufort, Bertie,
Caldwell, Camden, Carteret, Caswell, Chowan, Clay, Columbus, Craven, Currituck, Davidson, Davie,
Edgecombe, Gates, Haywood, Hertford, Hoke, Hyde, Iredell, Jackson, Lincoln, Macon, Madison, Martin,
Mcdowell, Mitchell, Nash, Northampton, Onslow, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Rowan, Scotland, Stokes,
Transylvania, Tyrrell, Vance, Warren, Washington, Wilkes, Yadkin, Yancey. Weekend Hour Reductions:
Alamance, Alleghancy, Ashe, Avery, Beaufort, Bertie, Brunswick, Buncombe, Caldwell, Camden,
Carteret, Caswell, Chowan, Clay, Cleveland, Craven, Currituck, Davidson, Davie, Duplin, Edgecombe,
Gates, Graham, Greene, Guilford, Halifax, Haywood, Henderson, Hertford, Hoke, Hyde, Iredell, Jackson,
Lee, Lincoln, Macon, Madison, Martin, Mcdowell, Mitchell, Nash, Northampton, Onslow, Pasquotank,
Pender, Perquimans, Person, Pitt, Polk, Richmond, Rowan, Rutherford, Scotland, Stanly, Stokes, Surry,
Transylvania, Tyrrell, Vance, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Wilkes, Yadkin, Yancey.
18 Analysis of historical early voting plans by Democracy North Carolina and ACLU-NC. Plans on file with
Democracy NC.
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2018 Figures Indicate a Relationship Between Early Voting Site Elimination and Turnout
Given the enthusiastic turnout of North Carolina voters in 2018, proponents of the law
might attempt to dismiss the harmful impact of S325’s Early Voting restrictions. However, as
Democracy North Carolina has noted in previous reports, turnout alone cannot fully reflect voter
experience or voter access — by definition, it cannot quantify the number of people who did not
vote due to election administration challenges, like long lines, poorly trained poll workers, or
limited Early Voting sites and weekend hours. And while overall 2018 turnout was impressive
19
for a midterm election, the data at the county level tells a different story. As seen below, turnout
increased less in counties where Early Voting sites were farther away from voters. This effect
was especially dramatic for North Carolina’s youngest voters, ages 18-25.
Ahead of the 2018 election, Propublica and WRAL teamed up to examine how S325’s
changes to Early Voting sites impacted voters. Their analysis calculated the average change in
distance, at the county level, between each voter and the closest Early Voting site. In most
cases, the increases in distance resulted from site elimination, but it also happened in counties
that changed Early Voting site locations. While driving a few additional miles might not be
20
prohibitive to every voter, the added distance can be disenfranchising for many. For low-income
voters and others with limited mobility or limited access to transportation, like seniors and
people with disabilities, eliminating an Early Voting site can easily place voting out of reach —
19 Gutiérrez, I. and Hall, B. (2017, June). Alarm Bells from Silenced Voters. Democracy North Carolina.
Retrieved at https://democracync.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/SilencedVoters.pdf; Gutiérrez, I. (2018,
July). From the Voter’s View: Lessons from the 2016 Election. Democracy North Carolina. Retrieved from
https://democracync.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PostElectionReport DemNC web.pdf
20 Dukes, T. (2018, November 1).Full methodology: 2018 Early voting analysis. WRAL. Retrieved from
https://www.wral.com/methodology-2018-early-voting-analysis/17960039/. Supplementary data available
at https://github.com/mtdukes/evl-analysis/blob/master/postgres-analysis.sql.
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especially in rural counties where communities are more spread out and public transit options
are slim to nonexistent.
21
As seen in Figure 2 below, turnout increased less, compared to 2014, in counties where
Early Voting sites were farther from voters. While statewide turnout jumped 9 percentage points
from 44% in 2014 to 53% in 2018, that surge eroded in counties with fewer sites and significant
increases in distance between polls. Between 2014 and 2018 counties saw almost a
percentage point drop in the turnout margin for each added mile from voters to Early
Voting sites.
The trend was even more extreme for 18- to 25-year olds, as seen in Figure 2. The
turnout rate for North Carolina’s youngest voters jumped 11% statewide, but each additional
mile between voters and Early Voting sites shrank that surge in youth voting by more
than a percentage point. For instance, in Bertie County, where the distance between voters
and Early Voting sites increased by an average of 5.6 miles, youth turnout increased by 3.5
percentage points compared to 2014 — paling in comparison to the statewide 11 percentage
point jump.
Figure 2: Increased Distance from Early Voting Sites and Turnout Margin Compared to
2014
22
21 Letter from Isela Gutiérrez, Research and Policy Director, Democracy North Carolina and Emily
Seawell, Staff Attorney, American Civil Liberties Union of North Carolina to Kristin Scott, Director Of
Elections, Halifax County, Re: Senate Bill 325 and Early Voting in Halifax County (2018, July 2) (on file
with authors).
22 Analysis of historical early voting plans by Democracy North Carolina and ACLU-NC. Plans on file with
Democracy NC. Dukes, T. (2018, November 1).Full methodology: 2018 Early voting analysis. WRAL.
Retrieved from https://www.wral.com/methodology-2018-early-voting-analysis/17960039/. Supplementary
data available at https://github.com/mtdukes/evl-analysis/blob/master/postgres-analysis.sql.
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As noted in the analysis by Propublica and WRAL, some of the greatest impacts of
site elimination fell on rural voters: about 1 in 5 rural voters saw the distance to their
closest Early Voting site increase by more than a mile. In some counties, like Halifax, it was
more dramatic. In Halifax, which can be found in the bottom right corner of Figure 2, the
average distance between voters and Early Voting sites increased by 6.5 miles, and the
23
turnout rate actually decreased compared to 2014.
Only three counties in North Carolina saw a decrease in the overall 2018 turnout rate
(the percentage of registered voters who cast ballots) compared to 2014: Halifax, Jones, and
Pamlico counties. All three decreased only slightly below 2014 levels. Jones and Pamlico only
had one site each in 2014, and thus could not have eliminated any sites — but both were
significantly affected by Hurricane Florence’s devastation. Halifax had three sites open in
24
2014, but only one site in 2018, and reduced weekend hours compared to 2014.
25
In urban counties, where county budgets were generally better equipped to absorb the
increased costs associated with S325 (resulting in smaller average changes in distance) and
where voters were more likely to be able to access public transportation, the impact of S325
was not as extreme. Still, almost 1 in 10 urban voters saw the distance to Early Voting sites
increase by more than a mile.
26
The Law Led to the Reduction of Weekend Early Voting Options
In addition to the pressure S325 placed on counties to eliminate Early Voting sites, the
law priced many counties out of being able to offer weekend options. Because counties had to
staff any open sites from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on weekdays, many could not afford to staff their
historically popular weekend options. As discussed further below, S325 required counties to be
open for part of the last Saturday before Election Day in 2018, but even with that requirement,
65 counties reduced the number of weekend voting hours, and 47 counties reduced the number
of weekend days of Early Voting. The reduction of weekend days offered is especially notable
since the 2018 period included another entire weekend, or two potential weekend days,
compared to the truncated 2014 period. And, as seen with site elimination, the impact was felt
23 Dukes, T. (2018, November 1).Full methodology: 2018 Early voting analysis. WRAL. Retrieved from
https://www.wral.com/methodology-2018-early-voting-analysis/17960039/. Supplementary data available
at https://github.com/mtdukes/evl-analysis/blob/master/postgres-analysis.sql.
24 Both Jones and Pamlico counties received federal recovery assistance following Hurricane Florence.
North Carolina Office of the Governor. (2018, Sept 28). Greene Becomes 28th County Eligible for
Florence Disaster Assistance. Retrieved from
https://governor.nc.gov/news/greene-becomes-28th-county-eligible-florence-disaster-assistance
25 Paterson, B. (2018, September 24). Bipartisan Furor as North Carolina Election Law Shrinks Early
Voting Locations by Almost 20 Percent. Propublica. Retrieved from
https://www.propublica.org/article/bipartisan-furor-as-north-carolina-election-law-shrinks-early-voting-locat
ions-by-almost-20-percent.
26 Dukes, T. (2018, November 1) Early voting changes hit NC rural voters hardest, analysis shows. But
will it matter in 2018? WRAL.com.
https://www.wral.com/early-voting-changes-hit-nc-rural-voters-hardest-but-will-it-matter-in-2018-/1795922
4/
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more deeply in rural counties — 70% of North Carolina’s rural counties offered fewer weekend
hours in 2018 than in 2014, as did 57% of suburban counties and one sixth of urban counties.
27
Of the eight rural Eastern counties where a majority of registered voters are Black, four
28
of them (Bertie, Northampton, Halifax, and Vance) reduced Early Voting sites, and all eight
reduced the number of weekend hours during the Early Voting period. Seven of the eight
reduced weekend days, and the eighth, Halifax, could not have reduced weekend days, since
Halifax was only open on one weekend day in 2014, the last Saturday. None of the eight saw
increases in sites or weekend options.
Without weekend Early Voting options, many voters are far less likely to be able to get to
the polls. For voters who work multiple jobs, voters who have long commutes during the week,
or voters who rely on friends or family for transportation, weekend hours may be the only
chance to vote in person. With S325’s elimination of the last Saturday of Early Voting in all
future elections, as discussed below, voters can expect weekend options to continue to shrink
precipitously.
Part Three: Effects Directly From Eliminating the Last Saturday of Early Voting
Elimination of the last Saturday will harm young voters, rural voters, Black and Latinx
voters
Starting in 2019, S325 also eliminates the popular final Saturday of Early Voting (the
Saturday before Election Day) for all future elections. Prior to S325, the Saturday before
29
Election Day was the only weekend day of Early Voting that counties were mandated to provide.
This elimination is likely to result in the majority of North Carolina counties having no
weekend Early Voting options, which are crucial for voters who work during the week —
especially since Election Day is also a work day for most voters. Without the last Saturday
requirement in 2018, 56 counties — a majority — would have had no weekend option for voters
to cast their ballots. Some proponents of S325 have argued that being open the last Saturday
before election day is unnecessarily burdensome for county boards, who then need to pivot
from Early Voting to Election Day. However, as Derek Bowens, Director of Durham’s County
Board of Elections, noted in an interview with Democracy North Carolina, “Ultimately, our job is
to do everything we can to facilitate voting, and [the last Saturday] is something we’ve done
historically — we’ve made it work, we’ll make it work.”
The last Saturday of Early Voting is consistently one of the highest traffic days of the
Early Voting period, despite most counties only being open in the morning, instead of all day
(see Tables 1-3 below). In 2018, the average rate of voting, over the course of the entire Early
Voting period was 39.7 votes for every hour of Early Voting offered. The last Saturday netted
over 135,000 votes, even though most counties were only open for a portion of the day, and
27 Urban, rural, and suburban classifications from the NC Rural Center, available here
https://www.ncruralcenter.org/about-us/.
28 Hertford, Edgecombe, Bertie, Northampton, Halifax, Vance, Warren, Washington
29 The Uniform & Expanded Early Voting Act, Session Law 2018-112, Senate Bill 325. Available at
https://www.ncleg.gov/BillLookup/2017/S325; Restore Last Saturday Early One-Stop, Session Law
2018-129, House Bill 335. Available at https://www.ncleg.gov/BillLookup/2017/H335.
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thus garnered significantly higher traffic, at 86.6 votes per hour. As seen below, the last
30
Saturday got more than double the voters per hour than weekdays in 2018, a
pattern which held true for Black voters. Black voters also used Sunday options at a
slightly higher rate than Saturday options, standing out from the statewide trend. For
North Carolina’s youngest voters, the importance of the last Saturday was even more
dramatic - more than four times as many young voters cast ballots per hour on the
last Saturday than on weekdays in 2018.
Table 1: Votes Per Hour in 2018 by Day, All Voters
Total Votes
Total Hours of EV
Votes Per
Hour
All of EV (In
Person)
1,972,338
49,683.25
39.7
Weekdays
1,718,575
46,091.25
37.3
Weekends
253,763
3,592
70.6
Saturdays
213,711
3,006
71.1
Sundays
40,052
586
68.3
Last Saturday
135,982
1,570
86.6
Table 2: Votes Per Hour in 2018 by Day, Black Voters
Total Votes
Total Hours of EV
Votes Per Hour
All of EV (In
Person)
435,482
49,683.25
8.8
Weekdays
370,177
46,091.25
8.0
Weekends
65,305
3,592
18.2
Saturdays
54,222
3,006
18.0
Sundays
11,083
586
18.9
Last Saturday
36,600
1,570
23.3
Table 3: Votes Per Hour in 2018 by Day, Youth Voters (18 - 25)
Total Votes
Total Hours of EV
Votes Per Hour
All of EV (In
Person)
112,331
49,683.25
2.3
30 Analysis of historical early voting plans by Democracy North Carolina and ACLU-NC. Plans on file with
Democracy NC. Analysis by Democracy North Carolina, based on data available from the State Board of
Elections as of April 2019. Data retrieved from https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=ENRS/
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Weekdays
89,928
46,091.25
2.0
Weekends
22,403
3,592
6.2
Saturdays
18,986
3,006
6.3
Sundays
3,417
586
5.8
Last Saturday
13,370
1,570
8.5
As with the lost Early Voting sites, rural voters will be significantly impacted by
the elimination of the last Saturday. The top 10 counties with the heaviest usage of the last
Saturday in 2016 were all rural counties, as were 9 of the top 10 in 2018. In the 2016 election,
31
rural Harnett County, home of then-House Elections & Ethics Committee Co-Chair David Lewis,
used the final Saturday of Early Voting at the highest rate in the state, with a stunning 17.2% of
early voters in the county choosing to vote on the last Saturday (see Table 4 below).
Table 4: Statewide and Top County Usage of the Last Saturday
32
Top ten counties, ranked by the percentage of the Early
Votes cast on the Last Saturday
2018 General
2016 General
Statewide
6.9%
Statewide
6.5%
1
Halifax
11.9%
1
Harnett
17.2%
2
Pasquotank
11.2%
2
Caswell
15.7%
3
Currituck
11.2%
3
Northampton
13.9%
4
Montgomery
10.8%
4
Yadkin
11.7%
5
Harnett
9.7%
5
Onslow
10.3%
6
Yadkin
9.5%
6
Currituck
9.9%
7
Camden
9.4%
7
Camden
9.8%
8
Chowan
9.1%
8
Gates
9.5%
9
Hoke
9.0%
9
Halifax
9.3%
10 Orange
9.0% 10 Hyde
9.3%
In addition to being popular among all voters and heavily used by rural voters in
particular, the last Saturday of Early Voting has been disproportionately used by Black
voters statewide (as seen in Table 5) in recent elections. In the 2016 General Election, Black
voters made up 21% of those who voted in North Carolina, but 29% of those who cast ballots on
31 Orange County is classified as a Suburban County by the NC Rural Center.
32 Analysis by Democracy North Carolina, based on data available from the State Board of Elections as of
April 2019. Data retrieved from https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=ENRS/
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the last Saturday. In the same election, Latinx voters disproportionately used the Last Saturday
— making up 2% of voters, but 3% of those who cast ballots on the last Saturday.
33
Table 5: Historical Voting Rates and Last Saturday Voting Rates for Black voters
34
% of voters
in the
election who
were Black
% of Last
Saturday
voters who
were Black
2018
20.1%
26.9%
2016
20.7%
28.9%
2014
21.4%
30.0%
2012
23.1%
32.3%
2010
20.0%
28.5%
Conclusion and Recommendations
At best, S325 was a misguided attempt by the state to impose a one-size-fits-all
structure on county Early Voting schedules, which historically varied widely from county to
county to reflect the needs of North Carolina’s diverse voting populations. At worst, it was yet
another cynical attempt to reduce voters’ access to Early Voting and Same Day Registration
(available only during the Early Voting period), ahead of a critical midterm election. Regardless,
the undisputed impact of the law was to reduce the number of Early Voting sites and weekend
hours available to North Carolina voters and remove needed flexibility from those who are best
positioned to understand what is needed for their voters — local Boards of Elections. Further, as
shown by our analysis, those most impacted by these changes are rural North Carolinians,
youth voters, and Black and Latinx voters.
Looking ahead to the 2020 election cycle including a fast-approaching March 3 Primary
— when three times as many North Carolinians as in 2018 can be expected to cast their ballots
— the constraints imposed by S325 will make it harder for voters to have their voices heard and
for election officials to provide the robust Early Voting opportunities expected by North Carolina
voters. Without a change, this major shift in Early Voting availability in a presidential cycle will
predictably result in longer lines and more pressure on Election Day, and, in combination with
the latest strict photo ID law going into effect, is especially likely to impact next year’s turnout.
Now is the time for the North Carolina General Assembly to take proactive steps to show that it
cares about the voices of all voters and to heed the bipartisan call of county election
administrators to undo this misguided law.
33 Since voter registration forms did not include a “Hispanic/Latino” classification until 2002, since many
voters skip that question on the form, and based on comparisons with Census Bureau data, there are
likely many more Latinx voters on the rolls than those reflected in State Board of Elections data. Read
more from Gutiérrez, I. and Hall, B. (2012, July). A Snapshot of Latino Voters in North Carolina. Available
at https://democracync.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/snapshot-of-latino-voters-in-nc.pdf.
34 Analysis by Democracy North Carolina, based on data available from the State Board of Elections as of
April 2019. Data retrieved from https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=ENRS/
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In conclusion, Democracy North Carolina urges lawmakers to:
●
Give county BOEs back the maximum flexibility needed to make the best
decisions for counties’ resources and voters. House Bill 893 is one bill filed in the
2019-2020 legislative session that would do just that. H893 would change Early Voting
35
law to pre-2013 flexibility, restoring the mandatory last Saturday of Early Voting (giving
all North Carolina voters a weekend voting option), allowing counties the option to
operate until 5 p.m. on that last Saturday, and providing maximum flexibility to county
Boards of Elections to design and set Early Voting schedules that could vary across
satellite sites. Currently, H893 does not have the bipartisan support needed to pass the
Republican-dominated General Assembly.
●
Eliminate the 7 a.m. - 7 p.m. weekday requirement, which requires county BOEs to
operate during “non-usable” hours, and in practice limits the capacity of local Boards
to operate multiple sites and provide weekend hours. H893 provides counties with the
most ability to determine Early Voting schedules, based on their intimate knowledge of
the county geography, population, and voters— but even a law that requires uniformity
of hours for satellite sites, while not mandating an unnecessarily burdensome 12-hour
weekday schedule would be an improvement to the current law.
●
Restore the mandatory last Saturday for 2020 and all future elections. While the
best option would be one that frees county BOEs from Raleigh-imposed scheduling
restrictions, restoration of the mandatory last Saturday for all future elections would at a
minimum ensure that every county has at least one weekend voting option for working
voters.
35 Allow Early Voting/Last Saturday/Flexibility, House Bill 893. Available at
https://www.ncleg.gov/Sessions/2019/Bills/House/PDF/H893v1.pdf.
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