There is no single pandemic-fraud number.
StartOfficial figures measure different things: more than $2 billion in losses charged in criminal cases (as of Dec 31, 2023), more than $200 billion in potentially fraudulent PPP and EIDL loans (June 2023), an estimated $39 billion tied to borrowers SBA suspended (Sept 2026), and $100–135 billion of estimated unemployment fraud (Sept 2023). Every headline about relief fraud is really a choice the reader never sees: which programs you count, and how sure you insist on being. Choose below and the total recomputes live. A flag is not a conviction — these figures recompose published inspector-general and DOJ estimates, not audited losses.
① Potential fraud counts the dollars SBA’s inspector general marked as potentially fraudulent in PPP and EIDL (June 2023): an exposure estimate, the broadest bar. Unemployment and ERC figures measure other things (GAO’s fraud estimate, DOL-OIG’s improper payments, TIGTA’s payments in error) and are shown beside the total, not added to it. ② Likely narrows to a reviewer’s judgment of probable fraud, though the evidentiary basis isn’t uniform: SBA’s figure is a completed post-review judgment, ERC’s is the value of criminal investigations still open. At this bar PPP and EIDL are only reported as part of SBA’s four-program total ($36B across PPP, COVID-EIDL, SVOG, and RRF — not a PPP+EIDL-specific number), so counting one without the other isn’t possible from the source. ③ Charged counts only what DOJ has filed criminal charges over — an allegation, not a conviction — and DOJ reports that figure as one number spanning UI, PPP, EIDL and other CARES Act and pandemic health-care cases together, so it only appears here when PPP, EIDL and unemployment are all selected. Unemployment’s likely-fraud figure is a four-state sample only, shown but not added to any total; ERC has no charged total: as of Sept 30, 2025, IRS-CI reports that 108 of its 588 ERC investigations had resulted in federal charges, and no dollar total of charged ERC losses exists. SBA’s 2026 suspensions (④) are an agency action on suspicion, shown on their own bar and never added to the others.
Sources and definitions
Each figure the calculator uses, with the document it comes from and what that document counted. Figures in different rows measure different things and are not added across bars. The pandemic fraud estimates table carries the page reference and quoted passage for each estimate.
| Figure | Where it shows | Source | Source date | Program | Population | Period | Unit | Method | Exclusions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $64B | Potential fraud: PPP | SBA OIG Report 23-09 | June 27, 2023 | PPP | All disbursed PPP funds; $64B is 8% of them | Pandemic period to the report date | Dollars disbursed | OIG matched PPP loan data against fraud indicators | Indicators, not proven fraud; the OIG says the loans warrant further investigation |
| $136B | Potential fraud: EIDL | SBA OIG Report 23-09 | June 27, 2023 | COVID-19 EIDL loans, Targeted Advances and Supplemental Targeted Advances | All disbursed COVID-19 EIDL funds; $136B is 33% of them | Pandemic period to the report date | Dollars disbursed | OIG matched EIDL data against 11 fraud indicators | Indicators, not proven fraud; the OIG says the loans warrant further investigation |
| $36B | Likely fraud: PPP + EIDL | SBA, Protecting the Integrity of the Pandemic Relief Programs | June 2023 | PPP, COVID-EIDL, RRF and SVOG together | $1.2 trillion of SBA pandemic aid | Applications from 2020 to 2022 | Dollars disbursed | Automated screening flagged over $400B; data analytics, machine learning (PPP) and more than 3.4 million human-led reviews narrowed it | Not reported for PPP or EIDL alone. SBA writes that no accepted federal method for estimating fraud exists and that only a criminal investigation confirms a loan was fraudulent |
| $2B | Charged: PPP + EIDL + UI | COVID-19 Fraud Enforcement Task Force, 2024 report | April 9, 2024 | Unemployment insurance, PPP, EIDL and other CARES Act and pandemic health-care cases together | 3,500 defendants in 2,388 cases charged by U.S. Attorneys’ Offices | Through December 31, 2023 | Losses alleged in charged cases | U.S. Attorneys’ Offices case counts and associated losses | Charges are allegations, not convictions. One figure across programs. It counts only cases already charged and is no estimate of how much fraud occurred |
| $39B | Suspended: PPP + EIDL | SBA news release 26-91 | September 14, 2026 | PPP and COVID EIDL | 870,000 borrowers suspended | Pandemic-era loans; announced September 14, 2026 | Estimated dollars of suspected fraudulent activity | Not stated in the release | An administrative action on suspicion, not a finding. Overlaps the other bars and is never added to them |
| $100B–$135B | Unemployment: shown, not added | GAO-23-106696 | September 2023 | All unemployment-insurance programs | All UI benefits paid during the pandemic | April 2020 through May 2023 | Dollars of UI benefits, as a range | Statistical sampling and imputation | A fraud estimate. GAO writes that the full extent of UI fraud will likely never be known |
| $191B | Unemployment: in the text, not added | DOL-OIG testimony, No. 19-23-003-03-315 | February 8, 2023 | Pandemic unemployment insurance | About $888B of pandemic UI payments | Pandemic UI period | Dollars of improper payments | The Labor Department’s 21.52% improper-payment rate applied to all pandemic UI | Improper payments include errors as well as fraud. The 21.52% rate was not measured on PUA |
| $9.9B | Unemployment likely fraud: four-state sample, not added | DOL-OIG report 19-22-006 | September 30, 2022 | PUA and FPUC | $71.7B paid in four tested states | March 28 to September 30, 2020 | Dollars paid to likely fraudsters | A statistical sample projected across the four states | Four states only; no national figure |
| >$2B | ERC: shown, not added | TIGTA report 2024-400-068 | September 30, 2024 | Employee Retention Credit | 184,923 returns claiming $41.8B that IRS did not consider for pre-refund examination | Tax years 2020 and 2021 | Dollars paid in error | IRS examination rates for ERC claims applied to those returns | Covers only those returns; not the $41.8B claimed. Payments in error, not a fraud estimate |
| >$5.6B | ERC: shown, not added | IRS Criminal Investigation, annual report FY2025 | Fiscal year 2025 (through September 30, 2025) | Employee Retention Credit | 588 IRS-CI investigations opened since the start of the pandemic | Claims for tax years 2020 to 2024; investigations opened through September 30, 2025 | Dollars of claims under investigation | Count of investigations and the claims they involve | Investigations, not findings; 108 had led to federal charges |
| $792.6B | Program size: PPP | SBA PPP FOIA loan-level files | 2024 release (files dated September 30, 2024) | PPP | 11,468,210 loan records | Loans approved April 3, 2020 to July 19, 2021 | Dollars approved | Sum of the approved amount on every loan record | Approved amounts, not disbursements or forgiveness. A program total, not a fraud figure |
| $370.3B | Program size: EIDL | USASpending COVID EIDL prime-award files | Downloaded June 22, 2026 | COVID-EIDL direct loans | 3,680,124 loan awards | Awards dated April 25, 2020 to September 20, 2022 | Dollars of loan face value | Sum of the face value on every award | Loans only: leaves out the Targeted and Supplemental Targeted Advances that SBA counts in its $405.2B. A program total, not a fraud figure |
Sources
SBA OIG Report 23-09 (potential fraud across PPP and EIDL, >$200B: $136B of COVID-EIDL funds, which the OIG puts at 33% of EIDL loans plus Targeted and Supplemental Advances, and $64B of PPP, 8% of disbursed PPP funds; restated in the OIG’s March 31, 2025 update, Report 25-10); SBA’s own “likely fraud” estimate (~$36B, across all four of its pandemic programs — PPP, COVID-EIDL, SVOG, RRF — not PPP+EIDL alone). DOL Office of Inspector General (pandemic unemployment: at least $191B potentially improper, nationally, February 2023 testimony); GAO-23-106696 (unemployment-insurance fraud likely between $100B and $135B, April 2020 through May 2023; September 2023); a separate DOL-OIG audit of four tested states found $30.4B of $71.7B paid improperly, including $9.9B to likely fraudsters. DOL-OIG’s March 5, 2026 testimony restates GAO’s range and reports more than 2,300 individuals charged in its pandemic UI investigations. TIGTA 2024-400-068 (ERC: 184,923 returns claiming $41.8B were not considered for pre-refund examination; TIGTA’s own estimate is that more than $2B of that was potentially paid in error) and IRS Criminal Investigation, as reported in DOJ’s April 2024 task-force report (352 investigations opened for tax years 2020–2023, covering more than $2.9B in potentially fraudulent ERC claims; 18 had produced federal charges). IRS-CI’s FY2025 annual report updates this: 588 investigations opened through September 30, 2025, covering more than $5.6B in potentially fraudulent ERC claims; 108 had resulted in federal charges. DOJ COVID-19 Fraud Enforcement Task Force (more than $2B of fraud loss in cases where U.S. Attorneys’ Offices charged 3,500 defendants, spanning UI, PPP, EIDL and other CARES Act and pandemic health-care cases together, as of December 31, 2023, per its April 2024 report — charges, not convictions). GAO-25-107746 (April 2025) counts at least 3,096 defendants charged as of December 31, 2024; DOJ has published no newer dollar total. SBA news release 26-91 (September 14, 2026): 870,000 borrowers suspended, tied to an estimated $39B in suspected fraudulent PPP and EIDL activity; news release 26-47 (April 24, 2026): 562,000 suspected fraudulent loans, $22.2B, referred to Treasury for collection. Program totals, summed from SBA’s PPP loan-level files and USASpending’s COVID EIDL award files: PPP $792.6B of approved loans / EIDL $370.3B of loan face value.
“Potential fraud,” “improper payment,” “likely fraud,” and “charged” are different measurements, not interchangeable losses. Figures are recomposed from the cited agency reports; several are exposure estimates, not confirmed theft.